It’s looking a very merry Christmas for pensioners and families and, not unrelatedly, the Rudd government, which has added a further 1 per cent to its already formidable two-party lead in a Christmas eve Morgan face-to-face poll. Curiously, the Greens are down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent in a survey conducted half before and half after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement of December 15. The slack has been taken up by a spike in the Labor primary vote from 48.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent, their best result in almost seven months. The Coalition primary vote is also up slightly, from 34.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent.
Morgan also produced two sets of leadership ratings last week, one comparing Rudd to Turnbull and the other comparing them both with their party colleagues. Rudd’s approval rating was up four points from the previous survey of October 15-16 to 68 per cent, while his lead over Turnbull as preferred prime minister had blown out from 62.5-24 to 69-20. Worringly for Turnbull, his approval rating was down 13 per cent to 42 per cent while his disapproval was up from 24 per cent to 37.5 per cent, a much sharper turnaround than recorded by Newspoll over the same period (from 50-25 to 47-32). The preferred Labor leader results turned up no surprises, but the Liberal ratings interestingly found Turnbull tied with Peter Costello on 28 per cent. This compared with Costello’s lead of 31 per cent to 20 per cent in the previous such survey of September 10-11, when Brendan Nelson was still leader.
391 Comments
Thanks William.You keep on giving
I wish youse all a Merry Christmas.
Sadly, The Rainmaker will be doing a little pondering.
Well, not too sad about it, am I.
Rmarkable Labor 52.5 , but as said earlier Greens at 6% seems hard to believ is so low and don’t feel it is What is not indispute is adding th 2 Partys together (no matter how breakup) and thats 58.5%….a lovely xmas presi for Rudd , and on that note hope all PBers enjoy happy tomorrow , and they & familys remain in good health , with hope of a better world in 2009 especialy for those less fortunate everywhere
So will Malcolm be crucified by Easter ?
Maybe Lord John will be resurrected. (They need a saviour).
As if anyone takes stock in a Morgan poll, especially a minor party vote.
Go Newspoll.
It’s looking a very merry Christmas for pensioners and families
And retailers apparently. I’ve heard differing reports from various sectors, but most are claiming increases of between 7-12% above the 2007 Christmas period. OTOH, reports out of the UK are saying sales are down over 2% there, and I’m guessing it’s even worse in America.
So it looks like the pensioners didn’t blow all their $1,400 on the pokies and demon drink earlier this month. Nor, as far as I can judge, have they been raping and pillaging their neighbours or engaged in any of the other aberrant behaviour the Libs were warning us about. Seems they don’t know their key demographic as well as they thought!
Onya, William. Well, it’s got to be a world of pain for the Rainmaker and the Libs.. I also find the Green vote puzzling, to say the least.
Zombie M, they haven’t got anyone who can unify them. We’ve been through all the ‘usual suspects’ before, and who have they got who’s even vaguely credible? Mind you, that won’t stop them from crucifying him, or otherwise offing him politically, if the polls keep going this way. I had a squizz at Possum’s site before, and apart from a blip when the Rainmaker was made Leader of Her Maj’s Loyal etc., Labor has been consolidating and the Coalition going backwards. Easter? Who knows?
We’ll have to leave the prognostications for 2009 until New Year’s Eve but I’m feeling more confident in my prediction that Cossie will lead the Libs to the next election loss.
With so much noise from the Christmas bonus and only half the poll after the ETS announcement, I don’t know what it means about the electorates thoughts on CC but it can’t be too bad.
On the other hand, it’s all bad for Turnbull. Why does his genius continue to go unrecognised by the electorate?
What cheer!
Lovely to see a 6 in front of Labor’s 2PP again…The perfect Christmas pressie!!!
Ho Ho Ho
I am sure Bob Brown shaking the hands of those who think civil disobedience is a way to achieve anything cost the Greens a point or two.
Especially when Saint Kev is giving a sermon.
Merry Chrissy Bludgers.
I have been doing a little work for sT Vinnies over the last couple of weeks. From conversations from our “customers” who are extremely gratefull to Rudd for his generosity these results dont come as a surprise.
Happy Christmas to all PollBludgers and all the best for the New Year. Especially best wishes to William. He should be nominated for Australian of the Year!
#7
I can tell you they certainly gave the pokies a fair “whack”
ruawake, you’re not seriously reading in to a MINOR party’s primary vote shift in a MORGAN poll are you?
Do you believe in santa too?
wow! a busy holiday period in the offing for truffles trying to resurect himself, he’ll need a team of navvies to dig him out of this hole, and add my puzzlement on the greens pollling to that alrady expressed, curious… merry christmas everbody!
I hope the Liberals have a policy to privatise Australia Post….
I sent a christmas present to my dear old Mum a week ago and it hasnt arrived in Perth?
I hope many a postal worker is sacked in the Recession to come.
BTW Polls in December (Who Cares?) also it’s Morgan (Who Cares?)!
You think privatisation will fix that?
You think it isn’t possible for the odd bit of post to slip through the cracks?
You want Australians to lose jobs?
You’re ignoring the polling records set by Rudd since he came to the Labor leadership two years ago? You haven’t seen http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/the-long-view/ ?
… you been drinking too much egg nog again?
US economy expected to tank 6 PER CENT in the final quarter of the year!! I seem to recall that in the 1929 crash the US industry contracted by 45% in three years and GDP dropped by 25% or so.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2353027420081224?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews
I thought Australia Post had been privatised for all intents and purposes.
Menzies would be rolling in his grave if he saw Glen’s posts and avatar.
glen should change his avatar to the grinch
Glen, continuing the myth that a recession will make more people likely to vote Liberal are we? Dream on. Liberals are never voted in when things are tough for a number of very good reasons. Where you get such weird concepts is one of the unsolved mysteries of 2008.
Glen, your Coalition buddies still haven’t accepted the November ‘07 poll neither
Tom.
Glen, I was shocked to read that you thought that postal workers should be sacked, because your Mum hadn’t yet received her present. Why is it your automatic assumption that it is the fault of the workers? Surely, the GFC would have given you some cause for pause? You know, CEOs taking bloated amounts of money as recompense for ruining the company, and leaving the employees with nothing?
Merry Christmas, fellow pollbludgers. The poll looks great, even if it is only Morgan. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on your pov) I’ve had a little too much champagne to comment further.
Why are we even here? Oh yeah, tragics!
Enjoy tomorrow.
On behalf of him indoors, he goes through these times when he hates all of us, with a passion. We, however, understand that you’d get a bit miffed, being a spouse. And also, he likes the stuff I can tell him from youse guys. Night from me, and a sort of grumpy Seasons Greetings from him indoors.
Merry Christmas pollbludgers and William. Hope that next year is as interesting as this year has been.
my christmas present was that a suppression order on a certain person up on charges of paedophilia was lifted and he was named and shamed, he also has to pay the newspaper’s costs $50,000. i believe, another one Storen, is spending xmas in an indonesion jail, again on a paedophilia conviction, one by one they fall, if this is all we can get them on i can live with that, the police had my family do a 1/2 hour ch 9 TV crime stoppers special two weeks ago to be shown in febuary, every little bit helps, i wont go near the court as the local case is heard, i dont want anything to be published that could give cause for a mistrial, but i will go for sentencing if he is found guilty, have a good xmas everyone.
Once again Happy Xmas to everyone, just in case you miss it from the other thread:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=-aqEAO6ZEGU
And Bob1234 before you get too dismissive of Morgan, a friendly reminder that your beloved newspoll was 59/41
Merry Christmas everyone
Merry Xmas all. I’m off to have Xmas lunch.
i’ve just done the family thing watching the grandies open their loot at 6am, having pancakes with older ones until 11 30 doling out my famous trifles and fruit platters to each family and now the day is mine to laze away, we have our big xmas meal and get together on xmas eve, that way the family can spread out to the inlaws without worryingm xmas mornings are always spent together though.
Well a post lunch merry christmas to every one. I just snuck a look at Poll Bludger and look what Santa left – Labor 60/40 2PP!
Thanks Santa! I don’t think the minor party % means much, but the trend is all good.
William you are a good elf, keeping all the bludgers happy
CC aside I am glad the bonus payment appears to have been working. It was good social policy and good economics to give it to those most in need and most likely to spend it. If it keeps the country out of recession and stops people losing their jobs it will be worth every penny.
Happy holiday to everyone. Now if Hayden can just score some runs…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/12/24/2454491.htm?section=justin
To me the only sour note of this Xmas has been the stupid comment from the equally stupid Pope.
I was watching the Pope making his pronouncement in a roomful of his Cardinals and Bishops, must be at least 200-300 men. i cant help but thinking how many of these men are homosexual or have suppressed homosexual tendency. I wonder also if the Pope thinks homosexually is worse than abusing young boys which many of his priests have been caught doing.
Good on you Judith, the less secure these creatures feel the less likely they are to prey on the young.
castle i’ve waited many years for this.
Judith
I heard that and thought of you. It’s great news. His name has certainly been very unfavourably mentioned for as long as I can remember in Adelaide. There’s a great saying (Hindu I think) which The Drones used as the title of their most famous album;
It’s got my favourite Australian song of the last decade, Shark Fin Blues.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=ljxw1YuUKIU&feature=related
The Finnigins – I’m just dying to know your reaction if I were to argue that Mohamed was a pedophile because he married a seven year old.
Steve says:
“Glen, continuing the myth that a recession will make more people likely to vote Liberal are we? Dream on. Liberals are never voted in when things are tough for a number of very good reasons. Where you get such weird concepts is one of the unsolved mysteries of 2008″.
Right, Mr Brilliance – ask Jeff Kennett and soon to be NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell.
Dio, thankyou, it made my xmas a lot brighter, maybe theres a light at the end of the tunnel.
I’ll get in before Adam, Finns, Ron and GG do: Hillary’s approval rating would have been 85%.
Obama most popular new US president
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24841894-601,00.html
No, Dio, she would have been at 110%.
No 36
You know he just might be innocent, it’s for the courts to decide not you.
Merry Xmas to all!
fredn, i’m not going to argue with you mate, yes it is for the courts to decide, BUT there is a lot more to this person that any jury will be allowed to know, things that are perhaps not relevant to his current case, time will tell and if he IS found guilty i will be over the moon though the charges have nothing to do with me, if not the fact that at long last he has been named publically to me is a good step forward, i dont intend to debate his case here–it’s not appropiate especially being sub judice, my concerns have very little to do with his current case except it establishes a trend in that period of time, i was perhaps very wrong mentioning it on a political thread, if so i apologise, it’s just that a few people here know who i am and i sometimes keep them up to date on whats going on.
Jubith
The court system is a two edge sword, we don’t have to fight our own battles, but we do have to live by the rule, don’t seek your own revenge. It may be a messy system but it sure beats shotguns at twenty paces.
Patrick Fogarty
I’d just like to know your reaction if I argued Mary was a really good talker given she convinced Joesph that god and not the postman was the farther.
Jubith
And I hope it works out for you.
fredn
I’ve tried that one myself a few times. It really lead ballooned.
Patrick Fogarty,
In the immortal words of Amigo Ronnie:
Would it make you feel even better if I say that he also seduced and married his daughter-in-law. When asked, he said: “Allah made me do it”. I have no doubt the Pope also says: “God make me do it”.
Diog, you are WRONg, again. Did we elect a POTUS or a movie star? Obama jives while USA burns, is that what you want? You better let your delightful wife loose, she makes better sense.
Oh yes, Patrick Fogarty both those gentlemen went well in their last election tussles didn’t they? I’ve forgotten what I am supposed to ask them. Was it why their last campaigns stumbled as badly as they did?
Finns
Obama is now officially recognised as the greatest President elect ever. I feel proud to have supported the greatest candidate ever, despite all the doubters. It shows that I was RIGHT all along. The US finally picked someone worthy of the job.
Change is coming to America!
PS It looks like Obi is going to ask the Ruddster for more troops in Afghanistan and to settle some of the Guantanamo Bay inmates. Both might strain the friendship.
fredn, having spent 11 years in and out of courtrooms i think theres very little about the way the judicial system works that i havnt experienced, revenge? well i dont think i’m a revengeful person, i’m utterly anti the death penalty which amazes most people who dont know me, yes i would like a certain group of people named and shamed, maybe you could call it revenge, i call it a smidgen of justice though there can never be real justice in our cases, actually if they were named and shamed quite a few innocent names that have been tied in as a result of surmising gossip would be cleared, i’d like that for their sake, my family along with others has lived for years with a sword hanging over our heads never knowing when it may drop, well it may be closer to dropping than what certain people realise, we are blessed with the best police force in Australia here, they have looked after us and protected us from the pirhana feeding frenzy of the media as best they could, many of them are now personal friends and mentors, i have a great deal of satisfaction that a lot of changes to the plight of victims has been bought about by us, along with the co operation and help of the labor party over the years, for that i’m eternally grateful, i apologise to William for digressing from the subject on hand, rant finished, Judy.
yes Diog, but what has he done beyond prancing and jiving around? except putting together Clinton Admin Mark 2. Not complaining btw. Would prefer Obama Mark 1.
Come and tell me about it in 4 years time and then i will salute Obi if he is as good as you say he is. Like i said, your wife is making better sense than you do.
Obama has the goodwill of the masses to enable him to bring about massive changes, my hope is that he’ll use it well, America hasnt a very good track record on protecting it’s progessive politicians, i hope they look after this one a bit better, Obama is only human and he’ll make a few stumbles on the way as he learns the ropes, dont expect perfection, {thats what too many expected of Rudd} just remember that Obama like Rudd may have to water down some of his aims to get it through a hostile senate, but one step leads to another in reform, the world might be going through hard times right now but the changing of the guard gives us some hope.
Judith,
Rudd never promised:
morning all, hope everyone survived Christmas OK. I was on the road for 5 hrs, spent day with rellies, ate myself stupid and got belly on me like a poisioned pup.
Judith all the best for 2009 with the trial and TV documentary.
Hey Finns, I saw Obama was out in the surf. could it be he’s trying to make friends with your dolphin mates?
Finn@58
[quote]Judith,
Rudd never promised:
New Politics and We are the Change that You Can Believe in[/quote]
Obama is not yet pres!
Finn i know Rudd never promised but some voters seemed to think he is super human when he’s not, after all he’s just a man trying the best he can to steer the good ship OZ in a turnaround, it WILL happen as long as folk dont put unrealistic expectations on him, he has to get his reforms through a very hostile senate, Brown has to learn re climate change that a 1/2 loaf for the time being is better than none, it’ll just take more time thats all, Rudd’s a good man at heart, as his long time unheralded volunteer work with the underpriviledged shows and i believe he really wants to make a difference to Australia and perhaps help in the world.
Rudd’s attitude is decidedly different to certain members of the coalition who try a con by emulating him, Turnbull gave his xmas address from a centre where he was packing hampers to the needy, c’mon, there is no way anyone would swallow Turnbull has done that in his priviledged past, Turnbull’s forays into helping charity would consist of being seen at the glitzy fundraiser balls where all the correct elite are to be seen and Nelson’s well publicised gutter sitting stretches credability along with the Tarrago with five kids and a wheelchair in the back, they must think the average voter is stupid.
our leaders image of themselves show in where they live, Rudd’s very ordinary, average suburban house in queensland, or Turnbull’s waterside mansion in Sydney, i’m not saying Turnbull shouldnt enjoy his money but for heavens sake why try to pretend he’s in touch with the average punter under morgage stress and living week by week.
Finns
My wife is a horribly cynical, Marxist, post-modernist, anti-atheist, anti-science, anti-medicine, anti-capitalist thug. As I’m sure you can imagine, she’s never been right about anything apart from hitting the jackpot with her choice of husband.
Wait for the 20th January. The world will change.
Judith, no, no, no. Pls dont blame it on the voters. Obama made those promises and the voters bought them. So he better delivers.
Amigo Vera,
what about a bit of dancing. we the dolphins are very keen on tap dancing.
Also we dolphins can spot the oily one from way beyond the surf. Especially the oiliness from Chicago.
We also love the other oily ones, the tunas, raw ala sashimi with a touch bonito soya sauce and wasabi with a bit of Watusi thrown in.
Finn i cant answer for Obama, only hope, but i DID vote for Rudd and will give him a bit of slack as long as he’s heading in the right direction.
Diog,
You could be RIGHT for the first time. But the change will not come from the great satan.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/JL24Cb01.html
When the Chinese wean themselves of the addiction to export and rely more on their domestic economy. the world will definitely change again, no more DVD players for $20. Can you live with that?
As far as your delightful wife is concerned, pls let us be the judge. You just cant stand competition.
Judith, Mr. Lu Kewen is going great gun, dont you worry about that. He is also the right man to deal with the Chinese transformation as well.
gosh reading back i’m jealous of those who managed to stuff themselves over xmas meals, i’ve got the granddaddy of all chest colds and managed a sliver of ham taken from the carving plate xmas eve, yesterday i couldnt eat at all but perhaps i’ll manage some cold chicken later today, i LUV xmas food too, aint it a bugga when the soul is willing but the body says differently.
Diogenes
Marxist, anti-atheist.
Given Marx described religion as the “opium of the masses” I find this difficult to believe.
fredn
I’ve pointed that out a few times. She’s related to an Archbishop so my struggle with that one is Sisyphean.
I showed Mrs Diogenes what I wrote about her. She objected to being called anti-capitalist. She thinks capitalism is the best system as long as all the profits are redistributed to the less well off. And people wonder why I get frustrated sometimes.
I thought that the Marx description was “opiate of the masses”. Otherwise I agree with your comment.
Tom
The manuscript was translated from German so if you want to be fussy it was probable something along the line “Die Religion ist das Opium des Volkes’
Posties are incredibly sensitive, Seinfield got a lot of mileage out of Nueman the paranoic postie.
fredn
Volkes is more commonly translated as “people”. Masses is a bit perjorative.
Anyway, the Marquis de Sade sort of said it first; “You fear the powerful eye of genius, that is why you encourage ignorance. Tis opium you feed your people, so that, drugged, they do not feel their hurts, inflicted by you.”
I stuffed myself stupid also judith, didn’t need dinner and only a small brekky today and went shopping.
Stores were quite, quiter than I remember for a long time.
castle
There is a “disgruntled postal worker” website, with Newman as it’s Saint, where they learn about “going postal”.
http://www.angelfire.com/ab2/disgrntldpostlworker/
Dio
Love that expression “Don’t go postal on me”.
Poor posties, we had one who did the rural run, known as the “dragon lady”, minor scandal in town when one of the “lads” took up with her 14 year old daughter, he was 35. Different rules in the country, also severe shortage of women, so the men start wooing them very early.
I hate to spoil your Christmas but doesn’t Dennis take a break from dreaming and writing about how the downturn will get his beloved Libs back into government?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24842924-17301,00.html
And another religous leader comes in for criticism,
Got rightly slammed for those comments.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/outrage-at-ahmadinejads-christmas-message/2008/12/26/1229998704754.html
Got rightly slammed for those comments.
Why “rightly”?
Castle,
He is not a religious leader. He is “Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad”, a politician.
Actually, i am not too sure which one is more dangerous.
Dennis and another test, now that is a novelty.
Why castle, do you think Christ message was war, hate and injustice?
Going postal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Going_postal
I wouldn’t be too harsh on Denis for it is only commonsense that next year could break the Rudd Governemnt but based on christmas shopping and the general direction of Interest Rates combined with a sensible approach to ETS!
Yes it may well be on the softer size than required but lets be realistic the Australian economic needs to be nursed back to health and at the currant point of time the Government should be able to keep the economic in check!
Of course job loses have started and depending on how broad wil only naturally impact on the Governments poll standing and I do know that things are tight and will continue to be so for the near future!
If history is repeated then expect the second part of 2009 to be very tough and how the Government deals with this will directly impact on its re-election changes!
With this comment I am starting to sound like a broken record for the economic situation and the political situation have been largley unchanged since mid 2008 and nothing is going to change anytime soon.
I expect that the Liberal Party will stick with Malcolm Turnbull but there may be a few changes but the ball is well and durly in the Governments court.
MB, a lot of people i know including coalition adherants are pssd off with the pevious government for spreeing the mining largesse instead of salting it away or spending it on infrastructure, especially now we desperately need it, your not giving the punters the credit of having enough sense to realise any downturn is the result of world events and the coalition would probably do worse.
Thanks Judith!
I agree with your point (84) One of the reasons the Government has maintained such a healthy lead over the Liberals is for the very reason you point too!
The only way the economy will hurt the Government is and I seriously dealt the economy will but if the economy was to completely tank now there are several reasons why I don’t believe that will happen!
Interest Rates heading down
Petrol Prices heading down
Property prices heading down softly! to a more affordable level
Christmas shopping has been very good
Various spending programs
All up the Government has handled the situation as well as one can expect in what has been a very fast moving and mostly been externally driven downturn!
The Government needs to remain on the ball and continue when needed to add spending, but it is important that the spending is well aimed.
There is a danger that unemployment could get out of control and the Government needs to be watchful, yes the voters understand this is a globel problem but when you are made unemployed you will naturally look for someone to kick and depending on the Governments response then it may well cope it.
(Sigh……) More tests….
And in case we didn’t get what Dennis was on about…
So, if jobs drop somewhat due to the greatest financial crisis in history (or maybe the second greatest), the Labor will be turfed out, in shame, for its poor economic management. Of course (as Dennis says earlier in the article),
So I suppose we can assume that Dennis would think Rudd’s outsting by angry voters as a result of the GFC would be one of Life’s great travesties of justice? Yeah, and the other one has little Santas on it.
At least we can be grateful that Dennis has moved on. Once upon a time his “fundamental benchmark” was something as simple as who scored an extra point in Newspoll’s PPM ratings. Now the new FB is “the number of jobless next year”. That’s sort-of progress, isn’t it? I mean at least Dennis doesn’t own the jobless figures, right?
BB, the last big test set by Dennis was the last Federal Budget which was supposed to see Rudd’s popularity drop like a rock.
Milne set the main 2008 ‘test’ as Grocery, fuel and interest rate costs but that seems to have been and gone too. How are Glen’s figures quickly calculated on a back of an envelope for these three criteria on election night last year holding up?
The quizmasters at Newscorp have had a very lean year when it comes to being relevant to the current political debate.
i would have thought Dennis would have used his remarkable analysing skills on working out how mr. popularity, rainman, has tanked so badly and how the great white saviour can be reinvented, the intrepid Janet claimed it was “game on ladies and gentlemen” to use her exact words when rainman took over as head honcho, i dont think this lot of political commentators should set up their crystal ball scrying tent at the fairgrounds any time soon — how could they get it so wrong!!!!
am i the only one whose mind boggles at the thought of our hero Dennis on his knees in church praying devoutly? i though he only worshipped at the great coalition altar {apologies to anyone offended by this remark} it is a strange thought after all.
Judith,
The interesting thing about the article was that Shanahan was visiting a Church that he does not usually attend. Full marks for going outside his usual habits. However, the analysis that the priest was a conduit for a growing backlash against Rudd and Co because they had not delivered “nirvana on a stick” in twelve months shows up the full on denialist that is at the heart of any Shanahan article.
The only ‘raison d’etre” for commentators like Shanahan is they have inside contacts, or an informed perspective or an intellectual perception of events that transcend the day to day ephemerality that afflicts mere motrals. Telling us that employment is a key issue for the future re-election of the Rudd Government hardly cuts the mustard.
Unfortunately, the removal of his coalition meal ticket as Government has left him stranded in a nether world of uncertainty. He clearly has not come to grips with the Labor ascencion. Nor does he believe “the poll that he owns” that puts Labor at nearly 60%. Furthermore, he adds nothing to the debate apart from “The sky is going to fall cos……”.
My guess he is going to hang around till the political worm turns and then he can play “Dennis the Baptist” to whatever Liberal Messiah wanders along. Might be waiting a while though.
Looks like Rudd might take a few Gitmo inmates. The Greens are in high moral dudgeon and say he shouldn’t help the US as they created the Gitmo problem.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24845331-601,00.html
Dio, i cant see Rudd slamming the door in Obama’s face, not if he wants a good relationship with him, however i think Rudd will exercise his right to be extremely choosy as to who he lets into our shores and whoever it is like Hicks would have to comply with some very strict conditions, i doubt very much Rudd would take in more than one or two at the max.
this is on a ride to nowhere, going by the blogs and opinions i’ve heard Andrews like Ruddock is unredeemable, the only good thing either of them could do for the libs is resign forthwith, you cant resurrect corpses in the real world and those two are swinging in the breeze, by their own actions so they’ve been judged, they played Howard’s game willingly with more than gusto, Ruddock admitted he turned his back on his ethics for a ministry, most Australians now look at both of them with contempt, any chance of the libs rehabilitating Andrews is a big fat zilch.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24845989-601,00.html
Kevin Rudd is going to commentate at the cricket today.
Agree Judith. Andrews has more problems than the public’s perception of him, which will never recover. He has been hopeless at every portfolio he’s been given. Remember his efforts to bring in SerfChoices? Haneef was just one of his many stuff-ups in Immigration. The more we see of him on the Liberal Party, the better. Turnbull is an idiot.
People are saying that the Government wont be blamed if the Economy tanks! I undaerstand where they are coming from but if and I would be very surprised if the following happened but if we had a repeat of the Melbourne Bust or Great Depression in other words
-Unemployment reaching 30% – 50%
-A large number of people leave our major cities
-Large areas of suburbia vacant
-Massive cuts in spending, wages and pensions
Scullin was elected in similar circumstances as Rudd was (Unpopular I.R) and fell after three years, yes there are several differents between then and now but still lets not overlook the lessions of history which Rudd appears to have learnt.
If this happened then of course the Government wil be thrown out! but lets remember one big thing this Government has approached this situation very differently than the Governments of the 1890s & 1930s and while it will need to be careful not to lose control of its budget but most of the spending is one off or capital works therefore its bottom ine should be straight-forward to recoupe.
The other danger for the Government is the voters reaction to ETS, yes the Government took the safe option which has upset some people but the Government needed to get the balance right and they have done that.
I’m not surprised by the fall in the Green vote for its support being on the small sizes is more prone to movements of three to four points while the major parties generally have a firm base vote.
The currant set of issues don’t play well for the Greens for many of their supporters are now faced with the real prospect of unemployment which in-turn means economic issues will become more important.
The Greens need to adjust to the situation for as I wrote after the ETS was announced the Green could find themselves wedged, just as Rudd has wedged the Liberals on the economy.
I expect the Greens will adjust for they have gone from 11 years of Howard, he was an easy target for the Greens, at this stage Rudd isn’t as easy for he is still a newbies PM.
This will change as the Government ages so its possible in the short term that the Greens support may go backwards just as the Liberals are going through the normal first term opposition torment.
As I have said before the ALP’s biggest test is 2009! if I can sit here in twelve months and the situation is stable then Rudd will cruse to a second term, but if the economy has tanked then Rudd will face being a oncer!
Of-course being faced with being a oncer is different to becoming one! I am sure the ALP are already setting the ground work for 2010.
Kevin Andrews really needs to be retired, if the Liberals were half smart they would replace him with Mary Woolridge MP for Doncaster which is in the federal seat of Menzies, Andrews has to be close to one of the worst performers in the Howard Government and in my view is completely unfit to be an MP.
Andrews isnt the only one poisoned by work choices, everyone who took it on is now seen as damaged goods, Hockey seems to have lost his mojo ever since he became involved, your right Dio, Andrews has never been anything but a failure at whatever he took on, but then look at the whole sorry lot, without Howard to cover and think for them they’re nothing, look at the larger than life bombastic Costello, he skulks quietly on the back bench, the nasty spiteful mad monk, mr. people skills, how much do we hear from him except for the occasional column? nothing! Hockey surfaces now and again but without his appeal, J.Bishop is a total loss every time she gives that smug smile and opens her mouth, Nelson, well Nelson turns whatever way the wind blows, he who never ever voted liberal in his life, how can anyone take him seriously? and Turnbull–at the moment, the pick of them all, is a walking ego who cant see past his own reflection, trying to emulate Rudd by giving his xmas address from a helping hand centre {as if anyone would swallow thats where he spends his spare time} was the last straw, so who next?
At the cricket they had a phone poll “should Warne run for PM” It went from 50/50 to 62/38 and Kev commentating at the time said gee his numbers hadn’t been that bad in a long time, said he was getting worried. Warne told him he had nothing to worry about and he was doing a great job as PM. Warne a bit embarrassed I think said he had no experience and wouldn’t have a clue. Kev told him it was all in the wrist.
And no Kev wasn’t decked out in a green and gold tracksuit! Thank goodness!
This may be silly but maybe the Liberals need to go for someone completely new, maybe switch Sentator Paynes to the Reps and combine her with a Bruce Billson
Workchoices is the gift that keeps giving!
Well Warnie has no Idea!! ideal for the Liberals!
93 mexicanbeemer – I realise you’re looking at worse case scenario and don’t believe it will happen but even in the unlikely event it does I doubt very much people will believe the Libs will do a better job. Labor will not just sit back and let that happen.
I read up to the comparison with Scullin. There really is no comparison. Different times, different strategies being adopted, different communications and totally different leader and government. Sorry, that really doesn’t cut the mustard as far as I’m concerned.
I think too you overlook the scare campaign that Labor can throw at the Libs next election. Try Workchoices mark 2, further loss of conditions and certainty, in a time of high unemployment. The Libs are going to have to go into the next election with policies. What will their IR and ETS policies be? How will they be different to Labors? What further action will Rudd have taken to stem unemployment? Action will be appreciated even by those who have lost their jobs. It’s no action that is the killer.
mexicanbeamer
I’ve never been a fan of Warnie, but he puts the current crop of potential Lib leaders to shame
Greetings Bludgers – hope the holiday period is good for all. At least the neocons have taken a whacking both here and in The US…things are looking upfor 2009- apart from catastrphic global warming and massive financial disastors of course. But hey- at lesat George Bush will finally be history.
Cheers.
vera, i think in one sentence you said it all.
Judith the only trouble with Warnie is that he likes the ladies and with the line up of Labor lovelies accross from him in QT he may have trouble concentrating.
I’m sure Jules will go on the front-foot and put Warnie back over his head!
MB, can I have some of what you’ve been smoking?
The Libs are now attacking the Media just as they attacked the ABC.
If only there was a ‘left-wing Media’ we may have better reporting on the progress of the Rudd Government and how pathetic are the opposition.
Dario!
My comments were based on what occured in earlier economic depressions, I was clear that it was both a worst case and extremely unlikely to happen this time.
During the Great Depression unemplyment reacted 30%
Following is an edited extract from the book Landboomers:
In the 1890s Melbourne had an unoffical unemployment rate of 50% with a large drop of its population and many suburbs like Hawthorn, Kew, South Yarra were vacent and many proposed housing estates became empty weed infested paddocks.
I will add that on both occasions the Governments added to the problem by cutting spending, wages and in the case of Scullin slashed the pension rates.
From the actions of Rudd and co it is very clear that this Government has a very different approach and for this I am confidence that Australia can remain recession free during the 2009 year.
FYI the crownies are going down very nicely! cheers
I will add one bank took 30 years to repay the 1890s era debt! How long will it take for the current debt to be paid off
The 1890s depression came on the back of possibly the worst drought of colonial times, at least in its impact on the population (the 1840s may have been more severe).
It was almost the final straw for the Caffey Brothers fledgling Mildura irrigation scheme coming after crop losses because a lack of water prevented paddle steamers transporting the produce. It wasn’t until the 1920s that Mildura began to revive. Sheep numbers more than halved and it wasn’t until the mid 1930s that they recovered to pre drought numbers. Perhaps 40% of the country’s cattle were lost too.
The bank MB mentions @ 108 was one of the lucky ones. Many went under.
ummm MayoFeral, i understand your nickname but what on earth made you choose Downer as your avatar? i would have though we’d seen enough of his smug self satisfied dial to last us a lifetime, i’m not having a go, i’m just curious, i cancelled my subs to the Advertiser after having his face leer at me from his monday morning column, ugh! no way to start a day.
i know the NSW government is badly on the nose, BUT isnt this sort of counting the chickens before the hatching.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24845988-601,00.html
Well picked up Judith! if the ALP are returned they will be hopeing no one saw that one!
It seems that some observers are underwhelmed by the origins of some of the NSW Opposition. It won’t be the cakewalk they expect once questions start being asked..
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/joehildebrand/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/hollywood_the_place_to_pick_up_coalition_policies/
ummm MayoFeral, i understand your nickname but what on earth made you choose Downer as your avatar?
A constant reminder/warning, Judith! Not that it’s worked. The new member for Mayo is proving as useless as his predecessor. Which means he’ll probably go far in the Party.
It was supposed to show him with horns, but they got lost in the image shrink
Has anyone heard anything of Cyprus lately? Given Downer’s track record the Greek and Turkish Cypriots should be at each others’ throats by now. Indeed, I’m surprised the Mediterranean isn’t running red! The entire population deserve sainthoods….or straitjackets!
111 – I thought exactly the same thing when I read that earlier Judith. I wonder how many others felt the same way.
looks like the NSWers will have a choice of bad and worse, i certainly cant see the opposition doing any better than the incumbants, but then of course i dont live there and i’m biased, surely theres some talent somewhere in the NSW political circles, does anyone have any idea whether Howard’s sticky fingers are still in the pot there? if so any talent would have been corrupted or suppressed.
MayoFeral, i shudder everytime i see a mention of Cyprus, i’m waiting for them to sue us and charge us for crimes against humanity after offloading Downer on them, poor buggas, a pal in Mayo says it’s lovely not seeing much of lord Downer swanning around the district lately, the new guy isnt much different though.
I really can’t understand the latest Tory fad of picking Shadow Ministries that don’t actually Shadow a real Minister or Ministry. It is a favorite tactic of the twice failed Springborg in Queensland but why anyone in NSW would want to play follow-the Leader with Springborg is asking to be cast aside as a joke.
In the Queensland Parliament the Shadow Ministers get up and ask a question prefaced by ‘but there isn’t a Minister responsible for that’. It makes the Shadow Minister look stupid but for some bizarre reason Tories think it is a good tactic. Can someone explain what this insane behaviour is meant to achieve?
From a political perspective it divides the Opposition, resulting in one Minister being shadowed by anything up to four or five Opposition Shadow spokespeople. It confuses the Opposition and because of this they frequently ask questions that are not relevant to a Minister’s portfolio. It makes the Opposition waste questions where one Opposition Spokesperson could follow a consistent line of attack. It makes Hansard read poorly for the Opposition. What the advantages are elude me.
they’re a weird mob.
It seems to me The Age is saying “don’t give the pensioners or low income people any more money they’ll only waste it” with this article.
Of course let’s forget that there was a shopping spree also being accredited to Rudd’s handout. note in this article that now Bishop is against the handout. Where was she when it was announced sometime back? Didn’t the Libs support it?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudds-handouts-feed-statewide-betting-binge-20081227-75xc.html
Nothing in that article surprises me but this is what frustes me witht he media for we had the media going on about penioners for weeks and weeks yet the media choose to ignore that many pensioners waste a lot of money at the pokies.
The disappointing thing is the unemployed and single low-income earners received nothing! in writing that the Governments policy appears to have worked!
I work in the CBD and I have seen an increase in shopping activity, yes I know its christmas but the vibe in the city is busy which is a good thing
Anyhow Beemer pensioner gambling is all a drop in the bucket when compared with the Billions of dollars lost by young twerps playing the derivatives markets with our Superannuation funds, Investment funds and Mortgage funds on a global scale. The losses incurred in the Private sector have actively decreased the employment opportunities for many millions around the world. I think the Age has developed a storm in a teacup with this beatup.
The Conservative government in Germany looks like dithering is the best they can do in response to the GEC.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/27/business/worldbusiness/27germany.html?ref=business
If anyone was wondering where our friend Edward St John got his screen name from, here is the background courtesy of the Great Oz Rock/Pop Website Milesago.
Under March 1969.
http://www.milesago.com/Almanac/1969.htm
sorry i don’t believe most pensioners blew their money on pokies, some will have of course –but the most, no.
i’ve a very, very, wide range of aquaintances and i dont know of one, most had a list of essentials that had built up they couldnt afford on the pension, most had a little gift list for the family, mine mainly went on installation of digital boxes for both TVs {not plasma neither just plain old ones} two leaking taps replaced, tradesmen cost the earth and a few dollars on little surprises for the great grandies, paying off a morgage doesnt give me subsidised housing, just extra bills like council, water, etc, i only bought the house to make sure my disabled son has a home.
come to think of it the last time i played the pokies was too many years ago that i cant recall, seems to me nothing could be more boring that to sit there pushing a button.
Gary,
A fairly rubbish article all round. Doesn’t have any figures to support the assertion but uses the “nod, nod, wink wink” unattributed source to establish there is a story. Next we give it a sexy name “Rudd Thursday” and get some of the usual suspects like Tim Costello to play “outraged” do gooder. Then to round it off, Julie Bishop (probably) gets verballed regarding the handout which as I understand was supported by the coalition.
It’s lucky the pensioners didn’t put the payment into stocks. Then we would have known they were gambling.
This episode proves that our pensioners only need bread and dripping to survive. Everything else is an extravagance.
Strange how there weren’t similar stories when pensioners were getting $500 bribes from Howard. Though I’m sure there was some “research or modelling.” By Crosby Textor!
That “research or modelling” line is Bishop’s stock answer to everything. When Cabinet documents are released in 30 years I’m sure many will be fascinated to see if she was asking for such research for Howard’s, allegedly long liquid lunch fuelled, back of the envelope Murray-Darling plan, the multi billion dollar Pacific Solution toilet flush, or Turnbull’s wacky $10 million scheme for drought proofing the country. I’ll be pushing up daisies by then, but I’ve got a fair idea what the documents will show: Not a single peep from Ms Bishop.
By all accounts pre Christmas retail sales were up on last year, and, at least in the eastern states, so is post activity. Which suggests that the bonuses have had some effect. Especially, in light of reports out of the U.S. and Europe that retails sales for the period are way down.
Is that article another example of the ‘left-wing’ bias of the mass media, Julie Bishop is complaining about?
Julie Bishop isnt quite as incompetent as Nelson but she runs a close second, how the hell did they last so long in government, Howard got rid of any talent one by one in case they posed a threat to him, he only kept rainman on board to keep Costello in line, besides rainman wasnt there long enough to be a threat.
Paul Daley trying his hand at comedy. I suggest he sticks to what he knows best. I’m not sure what that is but I know it isn’t comedy or political journalism.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/a-special-letter-from-me-kev-about-the-family-this-year-20081227-75vc.html
There’s a funny little political quiz here:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/12/summer-quiz-are-you-game.html
My brother is 60 and on a disability pension, lives alone in what used to be called Housing Commission housing and he was chuffed to get $1400 from Kev. First time govt gave him anything he said. He is leaving it in the bank to pay his electric and phone bills which are direct debited.
Here’s a nice heartwarming story for Christmas (if you love little critters like i do)
St Kev of Kirribilli has been out on a rescue mission
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24848945-5001021,00.html
Gary, i tried to make sense of Daley’s column and gave up, maybe he’d been celebrating xmas a little too liberally just before he wrote it.
I know there are few cricket fans here at PB.
Apparently, there is a musical about Warnie and the chorus girls are said to be very beautiful.
Hmmmm, with Warnie’s leg break, silly leg and bowling maidens, not to mention his fingers on the sex, sorry texing, you have to wonder how safe are those chorus girls.
apparently the rumour is thats he’s back as an item with his ex wife, with his track record she’s game, dunno how much reliance you can put on gossip column items, i just spotted it in passing, what a wipeout today is, i dont have foxtel, {if my girlfriend’s is a sample it’s a waste of money} i’ve got a choice of hmmm let’s see, landline, a silly movie-the fantasticks, cricket, fishing,or water skiing, time to start that new book i got for xmas.
Joshua Gans has a go at explaining the best types of economic stimulus.
http://economics.com.au/?p=1931
And one fewer after the way they played today.
Roxanna, please dont cry for me, Australia. bring back Warnie, Gilly and Oooh Aaah
i’ve never followed cricket, give me the crows and football any day, it looks like being a loooong summer, thank god for politics, the foibles of the current opposition, the pollsters and William and PB.,
Just read that Paul Daley article.
The man’s quite mad, and very, VERY unfunny.
Wonder what he’s been quaffing over the Festive Season?
exactly what i thought BB, just to think he got paid for that ramble, no wonder the papers are going broke.
Judith Barnes @ 142 -
i’ve got a choice of hmmm let’s see, landline, a silly movie-the fantasticks, cricket, fishing,or water skiing, time to start that new book i got for xmas.
‘Good’ news, Judith. By this time next year there’ll be 15 channels of pap to choose from
As for the great game, I’ve never been a Ponting fan. Believe Warne should have gotten the gig, despite the odious texting. I’d put money on there having been cricket administrators who’ve behaved at least as badly without receiving even a raised eyebrow in censure.
Evan Thornley 44 and the richest man in Victorian Parliment has resigned from Parliment. He was due to replace theo theopolus tomorrow in Cabinet.
Theo has been charged with rape and has resigned from Cabinet but not parliment.
Martin Pakula will now b likely to replace Theo.
A huge blow to the Brumby Govrnment
The Catholic Church has had a blinder over Christmas. First they get everybody who attended most church services to pray for peace in the middle east. So what happens? Over the weekend Israel attacks the Gazza Strip in the bloodiest massacre in over 30 years. What a waste of time, what a waste of prayer lol. Why don’t the Roman Catholic leaders get fair dinkum and do something constructive with their power over the debacle in the middle east instead of getting people to kneel and listen to mindlessly useless hot air. Obviously that was their christmas present to the Palestinians before Dubya is officially booted out of the White House.
Secondly, the Pope announces that homosexual behaviour is a greater threat to civilisation than climate change. There you go again! The Roman Catholic’s obsession with what people do with a particular part of their anatomy.
There’s something not right with Evan Thornley’s decision to quit parliament. I’m wondering if he was overlooked again and decided to walk.
Gary,
1. Overlooked again? He has been there 5 minutes. Please!
2. Parliament’s richest man, GFC, possible problems?
3. Health?
4. Factional infighting on the rise in Victoria. He does not have a strong factional base but allegedly had the support of Brumby. Hmm. No stomach for the fight to climb the slippery pole?
MayoFeral, even my steady ch2 has given way to the silly season, it wont be the amount of channels in a years time but the bluddy silly conteent.
Gary, yes somthing does seem a bit strange, it’s come a bit too suddenly out of the blue, cant be health he was touted for that spot this morning, surely if he had a prob he would have known before this, perhaps he’s playing the prima donna if he’s been overlooked.
I hope the ALP promote Martin Pakula
I am surprised with Evan walking!
heres what he’s got to say about it.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24850298-5005962,00.html
Maybe evan realised he was not going to get very far without factional support, and did not have the stomach for a long fight.
He was also in the upper house, so further from where the real power is.
I guess he can make more money, and feels he is more in control of his destiny in the private sector.
He was not a political animal like Pakula, and decided he wanted a life!
goanna,
Don’t make him a hero. All that was evident before he ran for election two years ago. Quitting now under these circumstances is a disgrace imho.
it’s about time that those who stand for parliament and resign before their time is up other than for health or severe family probs should wear at least a percentage of the costs of the byelection, might make them think just what they want before standing in the first place.
I have some optimism that Downer will get the job done in Cyprus. If he does, he will have earned a tiny positive place in European history. Cyprus is a bit of a Gordian knot in terms of EU/Greece/Turkey relationships, which in turn are a crucial element in any long-term modus vivendi between ‘Christian’ Europe and Islam. Given the fearsomely difficult nature of the problems in Cyprus, it is actually looking positive. See a picture of a smiling MayoFeral hero, and the latest UN spin, at:
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=29330&Cr=cyprus&Cr1=
GG, I think that’s close to the mark.
I have some third-hand knowledge of his campaign. He had to accept a place in the Vic upper house only because Labor couldn’t find him a Senate seat. Federal Parliament was his main interest so it was second prize. And his position on the ticket meant he only just scraped in.
Even during his campaign he had doubts – he seems to have a somewhat insecure personality.
And after being touted as a star candidate it must have been rather humbling to have to accept he Vic upper house.
My suspicion is that having come into parliament believing he would have a major influence on policy and decisions he has realised how little impact one person can have – especially one without significant factional backing.
The disappointing thing is that this has come as a surprise to Brumby. Seems that he couldn’t really come to grips with the machinations of politics.
Vexnews have some interesting comment on Thornley here -
ttp://www.vexnews.com/news/2109/how-sweet-it-is-thornley-quits-in-an-episode-so-bizarre-jerry-springer-wouldnt-buy-it/
Mostly reasonable comment although suggestions of a scandal are probably a bit far-fetched.
I think there is more to this story but in writing that I suspect others are right he has realised that he isn’t going to rule the world and Evan strikes me as someone who likes to be in control and being a polly isn’t all glory!
Boerwar @ 156 –
I hope you’re right. The people of Cyprus have endured enough.
But I’ll believe it only when I see it and even then it might be more a case of success despite his lordship and not because of him. His career is littered with failures, bodies and shattered psyches.
Judith @ 155
Yes, it is a waste of public monies, and irritating. But, if they suffer financial penalties for going early, they may just stick around… nothing is as much a waste of important space as someone serving out their time.
I would give them an early redundancy bonus just to get rid of them.
MayoFeral @ 160
Yes, loathesome him.
Just for interest’s sake, what would you regard as his top FAILs as foreign minister, with the criterion being he made a significant personal contribution to the cockup?
Boerwar, how about the AWB fiasco, he couldnt be bothered to read his emails or dispatches, or the lead up to the Iraq war.
Boerwar, my favorite was the two pandas promised to the Gold Coast that got diverted to Adelaide during APEC last year as a subtle form of Federal electioneering.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22375646-5013650,00.html
Boerwar 162 -
Just for interest’s sake, what would you regard as his top FAILs as foreign minister,
Without a doubt, East Timor. He stymied every attempt by others to warn the Indonesian military off before the bloodshed started. Closely followed by the ‘Pacific Solution’ (totally his idea, as he proudly boasts) with AWB third in a long list.
Ah, yes, how comfortable some people are with the blood and suffering of other people. It is as if the blood never trickles up.
BTW, did Howard consult Downer on Iraq or was it all Howard’s doing?
Here’s a challenge. Read this article and tell me where WA is ranked in the list of state taxes on business.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24851190-601,00.html
Gary,
It’s a trick question
WA isn’t mentioned because we aren’t a Labor state anymore
Though for the record the WA Libs kept carrying on in opposition about the high business taxes here.
Judith Barnes at number 155:
It’s hard to go past the gall of one Peter Costello for that. Less than one week into his (current) term as Member for Higgins, he was talking about moving on. Lateline, 30 November 2007:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2106788.htm
So I thank the people of Higgins for that and I said I will serve them, I’ll play a constructive role and eventually I’ll move into the corporate sector.
VIRGINIA TRIOLI: During this term or will you see this term out?
PETER COSTELLO: Probably during this term.
VIRGINIA TRIOLI: During this term.
PETER COSTELLO: This is something that I will have to discuss.]
Besides coming across as an equivocating jellyfish, he certainly appears less than committed to honouring his commitment to the three-year term to which his constituents elected him in good faith.
And all because his party didn’t win the election. Wotta sook!
Sorry about the formatting screwup. (Bloody square brackets!) I’m sure you’ll get the gist anyway.
Steve @ 124
It is an interesting phenomenum – a conservative Government concerned about jobs rather than, in the first instance, what the business and banking CEOs want them to do: Reinforce the privatisation of profits and the socialization of debts.
The rest of Europe has become quite used to Germany acting in Europe’s interests rather than in German interests. The further we get from WW2, and post-unification, the less reasonable it is to expect the German economy to carry the can for the profligates in the rest of the EU. The screams of the spend-now-pay-later crowd in the rest of the EU for Germany to do something, anything, have abated somewhat as people have come to realize that Germany will act in its own interests and that persuasion, rather than screaming and yelling, that is required. The problem for Merkel is that she is torn between Germany’s formal European commitments and Germany’s immediate national interests. The Eurowelchers, OTOH, look quite likely to tear these up by deed, if not by word.
Cuppa @ 169
Are you in a glass house?
Boerwar number 172
I don’t understand your question: “Are you in a glass house?” and how it relates to my post at 169 about Costello not committing to a full three-year term.
Cuppa
Ah, could have worded it better. The point I was istrying to make that I suspect that members of both Labor and Liberal parties have done similar things in the past. I can’t name names but…
“The point I was istrying to make that I suspect that members of both Labor and Liberal parties have done similar things in the past. I can’t name names but…”
Boewar, don’t know about the past but the NSW Opposition is determined to do exactly that in the future.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24851803-5003402,00.html
167 Gary Bruce according to the WA midyear Review released recently:
Total Taxation ($ Million)
2007/2008 Actual 6,447
2008/2009 PFPS revision 6,287 (Pre-election Financial Projections Statement)
2008/2009 Mid Year Revision. 5,896
2009/2010 Mid Year Revision 6,190
2010/2011 Mid Year Revision 6,641
2011/2012 Midyear Revision 7,266
Oh Dear, the voters have thrown out the lowest taxing Labor Government on Business in Australia. Obviously West Australian voters don’t quite share the values of the IPA.
State :Tax liability: Ranking
Western Australia:$195,621 :1
Queensland :$197,388 :2
Victoria :$202,421 :3
Tasmania :$210,179 :4
South Australia :$219,067 :5
New South Wales :$222,356 :6
http://www.ipa.org.au/library/publication/1230428978_document_business_bearing_the_burden_-_report.pdf
steve
That’s great news for Rann! There’s actually a state that gets taxed more than SA. Who would have believed it.
In the UK, there seem to be plenty of economists with mitres. The Church really gives it to Brown/ Blair. I suspect you could make the same arguments about any Government; morally corrupt, obsessed with money, sacrifices principles for short-term votes and reneging on promises. I doubt that the Church (or Churches) in Oz would get quite so political. Good on the bishops for having a go.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/religion/3981635/Bishops-deliver-damning-verdict-on-Britain-under-Labour-rule.html
Diogenes, thank God none of those things happen under Conservative Party rule.
Steve
I don’t recall that great friend of the working class, Margaret Thatcher, being pilloried by the Church like that. She must have been as wonderful as our Tory colleagues say.
The Church really has problems politically. Most of their beliefs are left-wing; tolerance, helping the poor, turning the cheek etc. But their organisation is aligned with the right. Think of Pell, the Salvos and Howard.
“Spiritual Alzheimers” is what I have seen the churches’ social conscience described as Diogenes.
I might be wrong but I don’t recall the Church of England being a fan of Thatcher!
With due respect to the churces view the U.K Government has reacted in a proactive manner!
mexicanbeemer
They certainly weren’t fans of Maggie but they didn’t come out as strongly as those comments on Labor. Lots of their criticisms of Labor are fair enough in general but I don’t quite understand what they wanted Labor to do about the GFC. It seems they wanted Labor to lecture the public on spending less, being more responsible and living at a lower standard but that’s what happened in the Great Depression and it didn’t work then.
Australian Cricket RIP, again.
Brett Lee is said to have a hot spot on his foot that could lead to fractured and broken foot. methinks Brett actually has a fractured and broken heart that needs mending.
Hehehehe Richie said ’short arse’ lol!
Time for Haydos to go.
Just after Symonds was dismissed for a quack quack, CH 9 shows a commercial starring Symonds immediately after. That’s the crux of the problem, OZ cricketers are now more of a celebrity than cricketers. Especially with those annoying comm. of the oily chook.
The Russians seem to be a forgiving lot. Stalin was recently voted the third greatest Russian, behind Nevsky and someone called Stolypin. After Stalin came Pushkin, Peter I, Lenin, Dostoevski, Suvorov, Mendeleyev, Ivan the Terrible, Catherine the Great and Alexander. What the hell happened to Tolstoi and Gogol?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7802485.stm
I believe Anna Bligh is right in calling for the government to issue an apology to Haneef. While it was the previous government that mistreated him, by buck passing an apology Rudd is playing the same game as Howard in refusing to say ‘Sorry’ to the Stolen Generations. That was disgraceful. So is this, IMO.
Diogenes -
And Stalin wasn’t even a Russian, but a Georgian!
189 – MayoFeral, I think the big difference there is that the people involved in the stolen generations are no longer with us to apologise. Howard is still alive and kicking and either he or a member of his government still in parliament should have the guts to get up in parliament and apologise.
Why Rudd should do so is beyond me. His government had nothing to do with it and neither did you or I. Howard and his mob owe Haneef an apology big time though.
I just love it when Haneef was asked how long he expects it will take the Govt to apologize. He said the Australian people had to wait 200 years, he’s also happy to wait.
GG 154, I had no intention of making Thornley a hero.
He obviously thought he could buy his way into Parliament, but found to really get to the top a lot of hard work and persistance was required. He obviously was not prepared for the hard slog.
It is a disgrace that he can walk away like this without suffering any personal loss.
I also agree with all Winston said in post 157
MayoFeral
So was Beria. There must have been something awful in the water in Georgia in the late 19th century when those two were born.
The ABC ran a miniversion for Famous Australians. Of course, the results were embarrassing.
1. Olivia Newton John (pop singer, actress)
2. Peter Cundall (gardener, TV presenter)
3. John Farnham (pop singer, entertainer)
4. Bob Brown (conservationist, politician)
5. John Howard (Prime Minister)
6. Fred Hollows (surgeon, social achiever)
7. Gough Whitlam (ex Prime Minister)
8. Sir William Deane (retired judge, ex Governor General)
9. Johnny Warren (soccer player)
10. Tim Costello (minister, social achiever)
Not one would make my list.
Diogenes,
How could they have missed William Bowe?
Gary, the Australian government is responsible for what happened to Haneef. As the enduring identity it is the government that should apologise, especially given that it kept the laws used to persecute him and continues to employ those involved and has indicated no action will be taken against them.
Many people that, to various degrees, administered the ‘Stolen Generations’ policies were still alive during the life of the Howard administration. In some states and territories indigenous children continued to be taken from their parents until the early to mid 1970s, and some continued to be held in institutions until at least 1980, that is in years when Howard himself was a federal MP/senior minister.
At least the A-G should apologise for the actions of the AFP and the DPP. Ministers should be responsible for the agencies they administer.
It does not matter that Ruddock thinks it was nothing to do with him, he was the responsible minister. But of course I forgot, ministerial responsibilty went out the window after Howard’s first term.
Andrew’s was a pawn – the Haneef thingy has Ruddock’s paw prints all over it.
I agree we should apologise to Haneef. In fact, I wonder who in the AG’s department (with a lot of embarrassing past history on the case?) is advising them otherwise? They are up for a bucket of compensation either way – it might actually make Haneef more willing to accept an out of court settlement. after the embarrassment of the failed prosecution itself, we should not assume those dealing with this matter are the sharpest legal tools in the government’s shed.
BTW Pyotr Stolypin was in many ways a tragic figure – he was a modernising reformer at the end of the Tsarist who began Russia’s industrialisation and tried to improve the social conditions that were leading even then to revolution. There is still debate over who ordered his assassination.
There is no need to apologise to Haneef. He is big enough (and ugly enough) to look after himself. If he cannot, Peter Russo will act capably enough for him.
Dio
I just saw your post on the UK Bishop’s statement – amazing! It seems to me incredibly unfair and biased. I would say that Brown is one of the most egalitarian leaders in the western world. As Chancellor he pressed for many of Thatchers harshe reforms to be toned down. He has made sure that the UK bank rescues are buy-outs, not bailouts, thus ensuring that mortgagees and small depositors are protected but the taxpayer winds up owning the bank. Perhaps the real reason for it is Brown’s left wing background and, I suspect, anti-religeous, or at least anti-religeous fundamentalism, views.
Socrates I doubt it, did the arresting officers do anything wrong? No. Was there political interference? No (according to the sham enquiry).
The Judge said the DPP evidence was a crock and released Haneef. So no problem there. He was held under “Terror Laws” all perfectly legal.
Andrew’s revoked his visa – perfectly legal, it is at the Immigration Minister’s discretion.
But I still think an ex-gratia payment and an apology are very neccesary – and a review to make sure it can never happen again.
ruawake
I am not a lawyer but if he (Haneef) doesn’t succeed in a claim for damages, or more likely receive an out of court settlement, I will be quite amazed. Just because an inquiry found that no laws have been broken, doesn’t mean that his treatment was fair, reasonable, or represented an ethical use of those powers. You can win common law damages without proving laws were broken, just that you were harmed. Under Australian law you can win a defamation case even when the defaimer was found to be telling the truth. If I am incorrect perhaps some lawyers present could give their views?
ruawake
Sorry I missed a critical part of your post – I agree that a review is badly needed. The terror and immigration laws have proven to be just as flawed as the Democrats said they were when passed.
Socrates, Howard certainly liked to give the impression that refusing to say sorry somehow protected the government from being sued. Maybe it helped him sleep better at night. But as those reading this as HM guests will testify, pretending innocence doesn’t stop you getting banged up. Indeed, the cost is usually greater than pleading guilty.
I’m with you, I think Haneef is at least as motivated by clearing his name as filling his pockets and that a full, unequivocal apology might go a long way to appeasing him. Even if it doesn’t damages will be awarded on the merits of Haneef’s case, not on whether someone used the ‘S’ word or not.
Socrates,
The response to the judicial inquiry in to the Haneef matter indicates that the Labor Government broadly supports the legislation. There will be some modifications as a result of the inquiry. However, if you think there going to be a holus bolus review then think again. It ain’t gonna happen.
GG
I fear you are right, but sorry to hear that nevertheless. Both philosophically and historically, I am very skeptical of the whole notion that tougher laws or greater powers ever defeat terrorism.
GG
I’d add Ron to that list with Mr Bowe.
Socrates
It’s not as simple as anti-anti-religious sentiment. The bishops included Blair in their criticism, and he was as pro-Christianity as any British PM. Personally, I can’t understand how the C of E works.
Socrates,
Hold on tight to your dreams!
However, I can assure you that dilution of terrorist laws or even the perception of a weak approach to terrorism by this or any government in the current world environment would be a “heroic’ stance. (In the Yes Prime Minister context).
I am sure that one mis-treated doctor and a mountain of mournful mouth from civil libertarians is a price that Rudd and Co are prepared to pay to stay in Government.
I mean, what have you done for him lately?
The answer to Haneef is ministerial responsibility, if the AFP or ASIO or DPP stuff up then the A-G takes the rap and heads to backbenchville.
If the Immigration minister gets dud info from his minions it his fault.
Under Howard “I did not know” became the standard excuse. The fact is “you should have known” is the only response that is acceptable.
Diogenes,
Perhaps Skippy, Phar Lap and Possum should all be stuffed and mounted as well. I’ll leave the order of ceremonies to you.
Diogenes @ 206
‘Personally, I can’t understand how the C of E works.’
It is a fairly chaotic organisation at the moment, only hanging together by the skin of its teeth. Bishops are entitled to have, and to express, an opinion. The rest of us are entitled to listen up or ignore.
It is good to see that some of them have got beyond fretting about other people’s reproductive zones and started fretting about social inequality and lying governments.
Ruawake – true about ministerial responsibility – perhaps that is what sticks in my craw most about this whole sorry episode. I dream of the parliament where PM’s realise again that defending indefensible failures makes the brand weaker, not stronger.
Haneef is not just Haneef. He is all the other Australian people who felt threatened by the targetted response against a person who does not look like, or quite talk like, members of the AFP or the previous, (or current) Government parliamentarians. In this particular respect, the parliamentarians are, as an arch-wag once put it, unrepresentative swill.
For the sake of inclusiveness and the peace of mind of all the vulnerables, a ’sorry’ and an ex gratia payment is very important. It is also important for the rest of us because, ethically, we need to be able to live together well.
Gary Bruce
A minor point: The early members of the stolen generations have passed away, as you have indicated. I personally know several members of the most recent of the stolen generations. Earlier on I knew quite a few people taken in the forties and fifties – the ones I knew from that generation have passed away. Anyway, many members of the last of the stolen generations are truly alive, are much knocked about, but they survive and bear witness.
Thanks Boerwar. I must admit when I made that statement I was thinking about the instigators of that policy and wasn’t aware that the policy lasted upto the 70’s.
I’m not sure why but whereas I have no difficulty with the apology to the stolen generations I”m a bit uneasy about this government apologising to Haneef. I’m not sure the wrongs are of equivalent value. Maybe a government “sorry” should be restricted to extreme cases, I don’t know.
I still believe Howard and his cronies should apologise though.
We screw up in Medicine all the time. Patients die from preventable diseases etc. We certainly say sorry quite a lot. If it’s an individuals mistake they apologise, if it’s a system error the system should apologise at the appropriate level. People apologise on behalf of the Government all the time. It shouldn’t be a big deal for the AG to apologise, and it should be the current AG. His Department stuffed up.
I’m pretty sure that Gordon Brown is a son of the manse, which is why the UK clergy may feel inclined to try to influence people’s views about his Government, and of course Tony Blair was a public Christian, which perhaps makes him fair game for criticism on the “morals” dimension.
That said, I think that the clergy are ill-advised to get involved in political argy-bargy, and they must expect that if they dish it out, they are likely to cop it also. Ill-advised, I hasten to add, imho, because it’s not clear how much (positive) influence they are likely to have.
On a different note: for my many crimes and sins, I’m condemned to being a constituent of Kevin Andrews, so I’ve recently read his Christmas newsletter. His many fans on the site will be interested to learn that he has revisited his statements in 2007 about incidence of crime among recent immigrants from Africa. I suspect that many will share my amusement that “he felt vindicated when he read a Herald-Sun article ‘Race offence against truth’ by Andrew Bolt” (19 November).
The Bolt article is at: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24672971-5000117,00.html
KA’s press release is at: http://www.kevinandrews.au.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=home.getItem&t=NationalNews&id=18
What “should be” and what “is” are two different things in this case Dio and that’s my point.
Andrews?
The AFP?
Gary
My point is that probably quite a few agencies stuffed up. That makes it a system problem so I think someone like the CE of the AG’s Department should apologise. It’s all this political crap that whips this into a big deal. Someone dying because of a drug error or something is much worse than 3 weeks of an incarcerated person. That happens all the time. I’m endlessly apologising to patients for the public hospital system’s failings. It makes the patient and rellies feel better, they deserve it and none of them have sued yet.
The State stuffed up re Haneef and the State (that means the current Ministers) is smart to apologise as this is one way of reducing damages given that a stuff-you approach is surely a recipe for bigger damages. I suspect the Rudd government is playing some sort of game by trying to put the torch on Ruddick, Andrews and the whole miserable lot who supported them but they would be a lot smarter to just apologise for the stuffups and political interference of the previous government and get a few brownie points.
The problem for the government is that the moment they apologise the question then arises “So you think the system is wrong do you? Why are you still keeping much of it?” So getting brownie points for a simple apology becomes a long drawn out political headache. Of course you could argue “and rightly so” but governments don’t see it that way do they? As Dio says, “It’s all this political crap that whips this into a big deal.”
It is a very interesting issue. Bolt’s article would have a whole lot more credibility if it were a bit more balanced.
The first thing that Bolt does not recognise is that the Howard Government were expert dog whistlers. They were so good at it, and had done it so often that people on both sides more or less automatically responded to the ‘dog whistle’ regardless of the contents of any particular issue. In other words, it had become virtually impossible for a member of the Howard Government to make public, race or ethnic-based statements without getting a pavlovian response.
Secondly, Bolt is a shock jock and rule number one for a shock jock is frame the debate. The second rule is frame the debate and so is the third rule. So, Bolt says:
‘Andrews, cautious and deeply Christian, had been gradually cutting our intake of refugees from Somalia and Sudan for some time, and in October last year explained why.’
And here we have the ‘rules’. Andrew’s religion has got absolutely nothing to do with the issue – unless Bolt is seeking to reinforce the Andrew’s dog-whistle.
Thirdly, Bolt is right to question whether decisions by police commissioners are politically motivated. (It would be interesting to know whether he has had a close look at the AFP blunders in relation to Haneef, for example…). However, anyone who thinks the Victorian Police Commissioner is the only police persone in Victoria playing political games is clearly not a very good journalist.
The dog whistling, the police politics and the party-political issues aside, clearly some work is going to have to be put into provided improved support for Sudanese refugees.
Gary
Your point about changing the system is true. Most patients and relatives say that when they complain about something serious going wrong, they don’t want anyone sacked or whatever, they just want to make sure it won’t happen to anyone else.
some members of the stolen generation would be in their early forties, my son was part of a trio, the champ,{m.o.s.g.} the preacher and the spook {Alan} the weekend Alan was taken was one of the rare ones they didnt spend together, champ was taken by a pair of church elders and he was never happy with them, he became an indiginous youth counceller as an adult.he’d be in his middle fourties now.
Diogenes @ 222
I was about to make the same point but with the reinforcement that there are a whole swag of people out there looking to see what the Government does in relation to Haneef.
The answer to date is pathetic. C’mon guys, just say, ‘Sorry’. Just do it. Get a real life.
People understand perfectly well that where there are humans involved you will get cock-ups and that systems aren’t perfect. Just because the unrepresentative swill of parliamentarians contains a disproportionate number of legal persons does not mean that the Government has to go all legalistic and systematic. It could just go humane, and say, ‘There was a bugger up. You suffered significantly as a consequence – you were publicly humiliated, you were treated as a terrorist, you were run out of the country. We are sorry and we would like to make it up to you.’
Now, what does public humiliation, being branded as a terrorist, being run out of your job and your country cost? A pimple on the national budget’s bum and a large return in terms of the perceptions of the vulnerable who are watching all this with an eagle eye.
If the Opposition and a few rascist swine get their noses out of joint because someone in the Rudd Government says ‘Sorry’, so bl**dy what?
Let’s say I am charged with a criminal offence and held in remand until my case is heard by a judge. When committal hearings begin the prosecution withdraws all charges.
Am I entitled to an apology from the government and financial compensation?
I dont know the answer to this but believe Haneef would be entitled to the same compensation and response from the government as any other innocent citizen in Australia receives.
WHAT IF Palin did become President????
http://www.palinaspresident.us/never/index.html
Robert Sykes @ 225
Haneef is not the ’same as any other innocent citizen in Australia’. He is different from other innocents because:
1. His case was manipulated for party political purposes.
2. He was targetted because he did not look anglo saxon and he did not speak strine.
3. He was not just ‘remanded’. He lost his job and was forced to flee this country.
4. He embodies the fears of those in Australia who feel vulnerable – not to criminals, but to the arbitrary application of the enforcement apparatus.
The Haneef thing thing involved an original mistake that was cleared up in a matter of days: the ownership and relevance to a terrorism investigation of the SIM card. After that, the rest was – at various levels – a pathetic, politically motivated and stupid attempt to turn the original error into a matter of national importance. I have no doubt that it was politically motivated and self-perpetuating. The more the authorities involved – from Andrews down – were criticised, the more they got their backs up and dug in.
We had all kinds of people ringing the radio stations repeating the mantra, “Better to be safe than sorry.” We had Mick Keelty in the media at all hours delivering blow-by-blows of the case. We had journalistic commentaries on the body language, the nuances of language, the minutae of syntax of the Haneef 60-Minutes interview, mostly designed to “prove” he was guilty. We had (even after Haneef was released) the idiocy of “continuing investigations” into the case, investigations that dragged on, to no purpose, for months and months.
Thing was, the Howard government was so desperate to claw back some ground from Labor, that something like the Haneef affair was three-quarters expected. The other quarter of the four said, “Nah… they wouldn’t be so stupid as to try a terrorism scare on just before the election.” That’s why it did no good. It was too pat. I think in the end it did the Howardistas no good at all.
The original arrest was plausible. The early parts of the investigation needed doing. After that it as sheer bloody-mindedness, carried out in public in order to save personal, reputational and ultimately political skins. That’s why Haneef should be compensated.
Haneef was fortunate that the AFP/Howard Party desire for publicity and that he was a foreign national meant the worst of the ‘anti terrorist’ laws weren’t invoked. The ones that allow suspects to be kept under wraps for years in absolute secrecy and unable to tell anyone of their ordeal even when released. He could still be languishing in one of our prisons to this day!
Aussieguru01 @ 226 -
WHAT IF Palin did become President????
I thought the dinosaur was a good touch. So is what happens when you mouse over her beauty queen sash. But clicking on the red phone takes the cake, even if it is a bit predictable. If only we could do that in real life with the impact confined to the Oval Office!
again we’re getting chickens and hatchings, i somehow dont think the outcome is as cut and dried as they think, many a slip between cup and lip so the old saying goes.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/the-new-face-of-the-liberals-charm-offensive/2008/12/29/1230399131583.html
Another “Bogan” arrives in Alaska.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24855760-2703,00.html
Cricket fans will be amused at the name given tyhe poor beggar.
looks like she’s carried on the odd family name tradition, that is unless Sarah named him for her, the way the young couple was scrubbed, uncomfortably suited and dished up to the media i wouldnt been surprised.
I personally can’t wait for Jan 20th to see Hillary step up to the plate and bring peace to the Middle East. What big Ferragamo shoes she has to fill! Sorry Amigos but I’m guessing she is going to be about as effective as Condi. She’ll need to spend too much time ducking sniper fire.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N29319898.htm
#233 Diog, i am too hurt to laugh and too old to cry and to pussoff to argue with you at the moment.
Australian cricket has been buried. But what do you expect when you got:
1. A captain who cant captain
2. An opener who cant open
3. A Mr. Cricket and Vice captain who cant stop eating the oily chooks
4. An allrounder who cant go around
5. A lethal fast bowler who cant bowl a maiden but lost a maiden
6. A commentator who is an Australian, Pom, and South African, depending who is winning.
Wow, abusing babies! Classy.
Diogenes @ 233 -
Obama has already signalled that he will continue the U.S. stand alongside Israel no matter what and stuff the inhabitants of the
WarsawGaza ghetto.If anything, I expect Hillary will do even less than Rice…i.e. wave less enthusiastically at the airport. Remember hubby comprehensively shafted Arafat during and after Camp David in 2000.
The Finnigans @ 234 -
The first ones to get the boot should be the selectors…followed in short order by most of the team, including the captain except he’s the only one that can bat better than an under 12s middle order!
Amigo Finns
Time for a song to get you dancing again
OHH for the good old days, rolling around the Hill at the SCG, pissed outa your brain with a pack of sailors, and cheering on the mighty Dougie Walters!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VL6mWgioXyA&feature=related
Rudd or the Labor Party should not apologise to Haneef. They had nothing to do with the debacle. The Haneef affair was used purely for political wedge purposes to score, cheap as a whore, votes.
Howard, Ruddock, Andrews and the current leader Turnbull should have the courage and decency to say sorry to Haneef. I know that would be too hard for Howard, he was such a little wimp! As for Keelty, well he should resign, or better still, get sacked.
What about that other debacle in the middle east? They call it self defence? When it comes to the middle east, NOBODY is more unbiased, open mined, and independent than myself. Israel’s behaviour is a disgrace! The UN has said to them to put away their weapons. Obviously the Isrealies want to give them one good last hiding before Bush is shown the door. Obama should put the Israelies in their place as soon as he takes the role as president.
I reckon I could get peace in the middle east in one week? Give the other mob the same amount of weapons.
vera @ 237 -
OHH for the good old days, rolling around the Hill at the SCG, pissed outa your brain with a pack of sailors
Sailors, huh? Didn’t your Mum warn you about them, Vera?
Centre I don’t know anything much about Middle East politics but watching the news coverage there isn’t too much outrage especially when compared to Mumbai when the death toll and injuries were less. Yanks say it’s OK ,that they brought it on themselves.
Sickening to see the fuss made over one Israelie death after Palestine retaliated and yet no tears for the slain Palastinian hundreds just a lot of bending over backwards trying to make excuses for the slaughter.
Seems Israel can bomb to their hearts content murdering hundreds of men women & children and injuring a thousand more and no one calls them terrorists, Why not?
If the arabs blast them off the face of the earth they won’t get too much sympathy from me.
Mayo Feral, I used to be an old salt myself once, no funny business on the Hill at SCG, I was just one of the boys.
Yes Vera. They call the Palestinians terrorists because their only possible form of attack is suicide bombing.
So I say give them the same amount of weapons so they don’t have to rely on terrorism. I would like to bet on peace quick smart on a level playing field!
I’m starting to think Mel Gibson was right.
The general ratio of deaths is usually Arab:Israeli of about 100:1. If it gets more than that, the US think Israel is being a little heavy-handed. Less than 100:1 and the US say the Arabs were asking for it. I’ve just started reading Fisk’s book about the Great War for Civilisation. It’s all very ugly.
Finns,
Don’t despair. Australian Cricket is in reasonable condition. Agree that a few of our champions have grown old more quickly than anticipated. But that is just the circle of life. We have been blessed with an era of champions that we are unlikely to see again for some considerable time.
I would argue that Hayden, Ponting, McGrath and Warne would be in any all time greatest teams for Australia. And, the supporting cast over the last twenty years more than hold their own as great Australian Cricketers.
The answer is youth. The Proteas have a young team of champions that have been given a go. It is time for Australia to do the same.
The Australian way has always been to give the young ones the opportunity if the older ones are not performing. Bringing back Hayden after a serious injury, playing Symonds when knowingly injured and casting off Kreja after one bad innings with the ball is the reason we are suffering.
I would be making 3 or 4 changes for Sydney.
Hughes,
Katich
Ponting
Clarke
Hussey M
McDonald
Haddin
Johnson
Kreja
Hilfenhaus
Bollinger
12th David Hussey
Katich might be due for a move down the order as his appalling crease footwork seems to have been sorted out by the bowlers. Mike Hussey needs to get rid of his new nickname Mr Crockit. Haddin is a fair batsman but an “iron gloves” as a keeper and probably has 12 months to go.
Ricky Ponting now becomes the mentor for the new era of players. If he can’t handle that, then time for Clarke to take over for England.
I will tell you something else that’s a load of crap. Iran being a threat to the west if they are allowed to develop nuclear weapons. That’s like saying I’m going to be a threat to Mike Tyson if I start doing boxing.
If Iran developed nukes, you may end up with peace in the middle east. The only reason they don’t want Iran to have nuclear weapons is to maintain Israel’s power. Well, as far as I’m concerned Israel has abused its power.
You will NEVER have peace over there the way things have turned out. Give the other mob the same weapons I say.
The hill was a great place for the one-dayers, I was there in the 80’s when a bunch of sailors used the scorekeepers window for target practice with their empty cans, aim was quite good. Cops came over and got swamped by the hill fans who grabbed their hats and threw them, eventually settled down.
And finally a policy of Fred Niles that I agree with.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/niles-bid-to-protect-sydneys-muslims–a-hrefhttpwwwsmhcomaupollsnationalformhtmlbpollba/2008/12/30/1230399185957.html
Don’t know about others but the sight of hairy chested blokes on the beach is a real turnoff, the sooner they force them to wear a t-shirt the better or force them to get a wax job. When they come out of the surf its worse, looks like they have a great bunch of seaweed stuck to their chest.
GG id make different changes…
Rogers
Katich
Ponting
Clarke
Hussey M
Hussey D
Haddin
Johnson
Hauritz
Hilfenhaus
Siddle
I agree Castle. I think it’s OK for the fillies though.
If Nile has got a problem, he shouldn’t look.
GG must be a selector. Bollinger, Hilfenhaus and McDonald in. Lee and Symonds out.
Glen,
Hi, the team has been announced now and it seems we are both patially right. Rogers had the credentials but I think his time has passed. Siddle I think will be rested which will open up the opportunity for both Hilfenhaus and Bollinger. Unfortunately, for Dave Hussey, his brother has his spot atm. Hauritz/Kreja. Hauritz will never get enough wickets to win a game. Test cricket is about getting wickets. Kreja every time for me.
Cheers
Diogenes @ 244 -
At last count the ratio was 300:1 and then it was an Israeli Arab that was killed. So far Bush is backing Israel 110%. With Obama’s full support!
I don’t know the Palestinian figures, but in the 8 years that Hamas has used rockets there have been 21 Israeli fatalities. That’s 21 too many, but pales compared to Palestinian deaths, not only from direct military action but also through hunger, disease and the lack of medicines/medical equipment, power outages, poor/inadequate water and sewage facilities, etc.
The moderator ate my post. Dunno why. Perhaps it was the French champagne name or the food chain. I’ll alter the spelling and leave out the link.
GG must be a selector. Bolinger, Hilfenhaus and MacDonald in. Lee and Symonds out.
Amigo GG, this would be my team:
Hughes,
Katich
Ponting
Clarke
Hussey M
Hussey D
Haddin
Johnson
Alex North
Sidden
Bollinger
12th McDonald
Amigo Vera & GG, it’s time to do a cricket dance, chirpy chirpy chip chip. Like old soldiers, do old cricketers
……….. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fd6zBMZ423g
Diog, i believe Bilbo has installed a new filter where bloggers who are always wRONg got the chop-chop.
finn dont you think kim hughes is a little long in the tooth to return to the test lineup?????
I still think i D. Hussey will get in the team, Macca isnt the batsman that D. Hussey is so unless he gets wickets i doubt he’ll stay for long…anyway who cares about the 3rd test now.
Definitely with you there Centre, as long as they don’t have chest hair.
or armpit hair…
The Israel Dream seems to be:
1.to live in peace and prosperity for ever
2. to hold various bits and pieces of Palestinian lands, including the 1967 borders and beyond
3. to maintain a jewish state, including maintaining a preponderance of jews over other races/faiths in Israel
To achieve this Dream it requires:
4. to displace people (including those who need to be moved in relation to the Israeli Wall, those who have been displaced by settlements, those who were shoved out of Israel before 1967, and, potentially arab Israelis currently living within the 1967 borders)
5. to maintain those displaced people in a quiescent, non-violent, state
The ideal solution is a political solution. In other words the displaced people decide voluntarily to agree to a deal which means that they put up with being displaced. Rocket and mortar fire out of Gaza indicates that this has yet to occur. Negotiations with Abbas means that a quiescent state may be accepted by other Palestinians.
Since Israel has yet to persuade all the people of Palestine to accept the displacements voluntarily, and also to agree to maintaining Palestinians in a voluntary state of displacement, Israel can only use the exercise of its superior power – including the power to restrict goods and services, and free movement, and the use of military force.
In the absence of a political agreement, the Israelis use of force must thoroughly quell those who feel like doing something violent arising from their sense of injustice about being displaced. In other words, they must be so terrified about being deprived of common civil amenities, a functional economy and/or being killed, that they are willing to trade this terror off against their feelings of resentment and anger.
Therefore, to achieve its dream, Israel is forced to wait for Palestinians to overcome their resentment and their sense of injustice. Until then, Israel is virtually forced to maintain Gaza as a sort of open-air jail, and, from time-to-time, to kill people and destroy lots of infrastructure. From an Israeli Dream point of view, Israel does not have a choice. Therefore, the force is not disporportionate. The force is as near as possible proportionate to the Dream.
My question is: Does this set out ‘The Equation?’ fairly from an Israeli point of view?
The good news:
The bad news: With the unnecessarily generous subsidy for coal generators it still might not be competitive here.
I’ve heard that Garrett was the only minister to vote against the ETS in cabinet because it was so inadequate. Pity he didn’t also resign from the ministry and the party. It’s not as if Rudd, Albanese and Ferguson are going to actually let him do anything worthwhile. He’s just the token greenie. So why bother? Surely it can’t be for the money?
Dunno why either, Diogenes @ 253. It just happens sometimes, and unfortunately Poll Bludger is in Summer Edition mode with respect to comment moderation clearance time.
261 – Yep, that’s right Mayo Garrett should stand outside the tent and pee in, that always works and produces the necessary changes doesn’t it? What a silly suggestion.
While googling our William, I found this article where he is wearing his other hat as a “Music Writer”
http://www.youami.net/press_q_and_a.htm
and this about Newspoll during the 2007 federal election
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/psephological-blogger-rhythms/2007/10/27/1192941402713.html
Frank, thank you. A bit of a nostalgia trip! So we are ‘nuts’? Is that all? *grin*
It was all a bit easier in those days… That was then.
Now, Rudd and Obama (a) are humans so will make mistakes and (b) enjoy the exercise of power so will make decisions that are about maintaining power and (c) will have to make compromises to cut deals. In any case the options for both have been severely constrained by what went before…
Inevitably, the gloss wears off. Then will the bludgers be?
This guy seems to be having problems with this freedom of expression thingy.
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/32311_Death_to_All_Juice
Gary Bruce @ 263
Is it? He is minister in name only. Why were the two most important environmental jobs – the Murray-Darling and ETS given to Wong, and not the Environment Minister? Remembering that he was the Shadow Minister for Climate Change. Why was Garrett stopped from fulfilling another pre election promise, tackling the whalers? Remember the comedy of Garrett huffing and puffing about how the Custom boat was going south to gather evidence for a legal challenge only to have it languish in port until it was too late to do anything more than chase shadows for a few days when the whaling season was effectively over? Where is it now that another season is starting? For about an hour recently he was again threatening to take the whalers to court and then promptly shut up. Fortunately, the GFC looks like saving him from having to preside over another environmental disaster, the Gunns mill.
They are just using his street cred to give the appearance of supporting environmental issues while ensuring he is incapable of doing anything of substance as they give 120% support to our worst polluters.
Pissing your pants while inside the tent is even sillier. Not that it matters because I believe he’ll be outside it soon enough. My tip: now that he’s fulfilled his purpose, helping win government, Garrett will be the first casualty when Rudd reshuffles the Cabinet and out the door completely at the following election.
MayoFeral
If Garrett was the only Minister to vote against the White Flag on CC, it’s not a good sign for CC policy in Oz. They must all be CC homunculi, like the Liberal Party. They’ll need to be dragged kicking and screaming to a 15% target at Copenhagen. I bet they go into Copenhagen VERY negative and looking for any excuse to do nothing, which seems to be Penny Wong’s response to everything.
PS I was down in Goolwa and Victor a few days ago. Not too many votes for the Ruddster down there.
Might have been a better choice of words using “maverick”. It seems to be a favourite with grandma.
http://www.palinaspresident.us/never/index.html
Either my sense of humour is inappropriate to this blog or is not seen in the light hearted, harmless way in which it is intended?
Hello everyone on this the final day of 2008!! an Interesting year to say the least!!
I was reading the OO and note that the good for nothing usless Job Network agencies are seeking Government assistance! This is one group that I hope PM Rudd slams the door into their faces! these agencies have had it way too good for too long and are a legacy of the Howard Government’s lazy approach to finding the unemployed jobs, I again repeat what I have said before if you are unemployed you are considerable better off visiting Recruitment agencies!
Diogenes,
PS Victor and Goolwa are part of Mayo. Hardly hard core Labor territory.
If places like Goolwa and Victor Harbour start voting for the ALP then the Liberal Party will struggle to win anything, from my understanding they are very strong Liberal Party booths although I would image the Greens do okay in those communities.
That south east corner of South Australia is very solid for the Liberals, I have not checked the numbers but I would be surprised if there are any ALP booths in that area, maybe in a larger town like Mt Gambler there may be one but I wouldn’t expect to see that.
I’m still happy with Kev and his policy making. This one is overdue I feel.
Sorry I forgot the link
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudd-and-rees-pick-a-pocket-or-two/2008/12/30/1230399211536.html
Diogenes @ 268 -
If Garrett was the only Minister to vote against the White Flag on CC, it’s not a good sign for CC policy in Oz.
According to Paul Sheehan he was.
Garrett has since neutered the only initiative that has had an impact on CO2, the solar PVC rebate. People could buy an entry level 1KW system for around $3,900. Now that they’ve reduced the rebate from $8K to $5K, these will cost $6,900. I doubt this was his idea.
Even in the states that have a feed-in-tariff (Qld, SA, Vic, and soon NSW) at the old price it barely made sense financially, but some people, even pensioners like my Mum (in WA), were prepared to do their bit. Now these will be out of reach of most.
To add insult to injury, under Rudd’s ETS even the environmental incentive has been taken away because the generators will be able to sell the permits for every tonne of CO2 saved to those who will generate the pollution. Mum passed away just weeks before the whitepaper was released. She had been pleased as punch that she was able to do something to help keep the planet bearable for her grandkids so would have been devastated to learn her sacrifice was in vain.
As for the Lower Lakes, the do-gooders mislead by self-interested parties will end up killing the very thing they think they’re saving by insisting on the lakes remaining freshwater. As I’ve repeated pointed out in letters to the local rag which never get published, before the barrages where built he lower system has always relied on an influx of seawater to prevent the soils turning acid. The same is true of the lower Murray, the bed of which is wholly below sea level from about Lock 1 at Blanchetown.
GG and mexicanbeemer
I wasn’t suggesting they would vote Labor ahead of that great candidate Briggs. But very noisy disgruntled voters with TV crews showing boats landlocked and a trickling river might have a wider impact. On the other hand, it’s not like the Libs can point that finger with much conviction, although I’m sure they will give it a try.
Mayo,
That Sheehan article is a pearler.
An unsubstantiated rumour corroborated by a no comment. Investigative journalism at its best!
At least in the old days fairy tales started with “Once upon a time…….”
267 – Mayo, my point stands. You don’t change anything from outside the tent. You have some show inside it even with wet pants on. As for your predictions, we’ll see won’t we?
Ah, Boerwar, someone who actually sees the reality of the situation. So let’s cut this BS about going in like a bull-at-a-gate and occupying the high moral ground in regard to CC shall we? People may hate it but that’s reality in full bloom.
GG @ 277 -
The alternative scenario is that Garrett did vote for the ETS. Seems to me that condemns him even more.
The bile against Garrett is interesting. Again reality has it that he is not a one man band. He is a team player. Whether he voted for or against the ETS is a mute point. The GOVERNMENT voted for it.
Ever wondered why Garrett didn’t join the Greens? Ever wondered why the Greens aren’t the government by now? Maybe the government is more in line with the thinking of the majority of the population than some people here think it is.
Hopefully 2009 will bring less purist hand wringing from ‘I want it all and now’ Labor idealists. And some more strategic, mature long term understanding of politics and achieving of policy goals.
On the balance of things, considering this is the first year of a party out of government for more than a decade, Rudd and his team have done a brilliant job full stop.
Death to all Juice
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/32311_Death_to_All_Juice
Stupidity knows no bounds when it comes to racial hatred.
Hopefully 2009 will bring less cringeing, cowering, pathologically risk-averse, process-driven policies aided and abetted by Labor apologists who dress up weak, poll-driven lack of leadership as political and pragmatic genius.
On the balance of things, considering this is the first year of a party out of government for more than a decade, Rudd and his team have really done almost nothing except for a few feel-good, symbolic efforts (which haven’t achieved anything except make Rudd look more human than Howard) and handing out $10B like Santa Claus.
Diog, for your New Year listening. Happy New Year to all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/history/inourtime/inourtime_20061019.shtml
MayoFeral 268. As I as I can find out the lower lakes would have been barely affected by high salt levels until River Murray flows were substantially reduced by irrigation in the last 120 years or so. Even though on occasions the river might have been reduced to very low or no flows, that does not equate to high salt levels back in the lakes. The ecosystem in the lakes and estuaries of the Finniss etc is essentially fresh with the odd more brackish time. Allowing the system to became as salty as the sea would be a major problem for the ecosystems affected. The alternative now being looked at of blocking off Lake Albert and turning it into an ephemeral wetland for the next year or 2 at least seems like an option worth trying to save Lake Alexandrina and the estuaries.
Diogenes – quite rightly the locals are desperate for governments to do things and are not happy with Rann and Rudd for their low key approach but Libs trying to pretend they have any answers about the lower lakes issues would need a major rewrire of history.
Wakefield
I suspect that Wong etc know that the Lower Lakes are irretrievable barring a Noah’s Ark type flood (and even then the Queenslanders would probably store most of it to create a few more inland Sydney Harbor’s to grow rice and cotton).
The locals are going to have to come around to the idea of opening the barrages and accepting an ecosystem disaster. They’re not ready yet but they will slowly come around I suspect.
Diogenes,
Given your usual whines and snivels, I’ll take your 284 as a thorough endorsement of Rudd and the Labor team. The good news is there will be more fine government in the New Year.
Cheers.
Former WA Premier Brian Burke has been coming out swinging against the CCC.
Here he is on the Perth Edition of A Current Affair.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=07wLbxGKebM
GG
I’m looking forward to more brave, inspired leadership from that great man Rudd and his talented and highly intelligent possie of union lawyers and shop stewards. May he reach for even greater heights of blandness and obsequiousness to corporate interests!
In the New Year, we will have Obama and Hillary to lead the free world against the forces of darkness. A New Age of Enlightenment will dawn on the 20th January and Hope will spring eternal. And Yes!, It’s Change We Can Believe In.
Cheers
Oh dear, the chicago oiliness is catching with Obama again. The race card will be played by both sides to suit their own political purpose. It will not be pretty, which is a pity. As with the recent “Barack Obama The Magic Negro” episode, the respect for Obama as a POTUS could be an elusive commodity from certain sections of the American society.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16952.html
Wakefield @ 286 -
The ecosystem in the lakes and estuaries of the Finniss etc is essentially fresh with the odd more brackish time.
Not so. Despite what you may have heard about a certain book that is being widely promoted throughout the region.
When the first white man to write a record of his travels on the lakes, Charles Sturt rowed across Lake Alexandrina in 1830 he struck seawater early on his first day. To quote from his ‘Two Expeditions into the Interior of Southern Australia During the Years 1828, 1829, 1830, 1831′ (Vol 2, Ch 6):
He doesn’t record the position, but other information suggests it was within 20km WSW of the end of the Murray at where Wellington now is.
He goes on to write:
What he’s describing is a tidal fish trap. He mentions the tidal nature of the lake several times, even records meeting a seal in its centre.
Newspapers in the region record many instances of marine fish species being caught along the river at least as far upstream as Murray Bridge in thge years before the barrages became operational, and sightings of dolphins were also common, especially in the years before 1900, which may be significant because this was the time of the ‘Federation’ drought of 1895-1902. That drought almost finished off the Caffey Brothers irrigation scheme at Mildura. Not so much because of a lack of irrigation water, but because there wasn’t enough water in the river for paddle steamers to transport the produce to markets and it rotted on the wharf. Mildura didn’t begin to recovery until well into the 1920s, just in time for the Great Depression.
1830/31 weren’t drought years, unlike 1838-42 and the Fed drought years. I mention these two because the aforementioned book makes much of the earliest settlers around the lakes supposedly blaming salt water influx into the lakes in those years on irrigators upstream. The fact is that in the early years of settlement in the area there were some very exceptionally wet years accompanied by big floods which probably explains why the lakes were then mostly fresh.
Diogenes,
It is good to have the natural order restored. Nelson demonstrated and you certainly re-inforce that medical doctors know fa about real politics.
As for Obama and Hillary, I just hope that Obama is up to the job. As they say, “He who the Gods wish to destroy, they first make popular”.
GG
Medical doctors have a long, proud and unblemished record of making terrible politicians. There has almost never been a decent one. For some reason, the Middle East often chooses doctors, and we’ve seen how well that turns out. ATM, the most “successful” doctor-politician is Ayman al-Zawahiri, although he doesn’t seem to be without his detractors.
Diog,
I just knew Finn’s “Theory of wRongness” would have sound underpinnings.
Unfortunately, the Communists never got anything to run on time. However, here is their Christmas Greeting to all.
http://www.rathergood.com/christmas
Unemployment looks like being the big political battleground for next year. Each rise in unemployment rate will be watched like interest rates used to be. Julia is sticking with the official projection of 5.75% by the end of 2009. Julie is unhappy.
Looks like 1 million is the target Rudd wants to stay under politically. One million unemployed would sound bad in an ad campaign. Of course, Bishop doesn’t have any answers herself but you can’t blame her for trying
Julia Gillard’s grim jobs warning for 2009
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24859825-5006301,00.html
A known regular caller (Liberal supporter) rang 3AW today to criticise Rudd for spending the surplus. The announcer had been dealing with the issue of rising unemployment and immediately asked the caller, “So you don’t think any of the surplus should be spent on saving jobs?” The caller ummed and ahhed and ended up saying “Well, that a difficult question isn’t it?” So no real answer. Therein lies the difficulty for the Libs.
I’m still not convinced Labor will be blamed for a rise in unemployment, a million or not. As long as Rudd is seen as doing everything possible he’ll be OK.
What will also look good in ads is the higher unemployment figures around the world. By comparison Australia will seem like employment central.
This article talks about a 30% increase in comparable economies (US, UK and Canada) in their unemployment level in 2009. If we’re 4.3% now, a 30% increase reaches 5.7%. It’s hard to imagine our GDP dropping as much as the predictions for those three so unemployment should go up by less than 30%. That would put us way under Bishops 8%/ one million unemployed scenario.
Of course, someone who actually knows what they are talking about could correct me but I thought I’d have a whirl at it.
‘09 GDP growth (%) Jobless increase
U.K. -1.9 600,000
U.S. -2.3 4.1 mill
Canada -1.3 270,000
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/12/29/uk-jobless-annual.html
Diogenes @ 297 -
Looks like 1 million is the target Rudd wants to stay under politically. One million unemployed would sound bad in an ad campaign.
The British with about 3 times our population are predicting unemployment there to hit 3 million next year (it’s already near 2 million). But their economy is already much worse than ours, so unless the brown stuff really hits the fan I can’t see us going as high as 1 million. I think Gillard is using the old ‘tell folks the sky is going to fall and when it doesn’t they’ll think you’re a genius’ technique.
MF
Gillard is saying 5.75%. It’s that dimwit Bishop who’s setting the bar at 8%.
So when Labor do much better than 8%, which looks very likely IMHO, Labor can point to Bishop’s predictions and say how well they’ve done. The Libs really need to get rid of Bishop to have any credibility. Nelson had no idea about politics but Bishop is even worse.
Gary Bruce @ 279
Happy with point B?
Um, not when CC response @ 5% is being downplayed for power maintenance purposes. Not practical. Not balanced.
Finns, Ron and GG
In the US, 2008 is going to end the same way it began, with Hill and Bill Clinton at centre stage.
Hey Diog, did you realise Brisbane has been on level 5 water restrictions for a few years?
Geez you make some silly statements. I let your recent vile comment on CLL go through to the keeper, but for a supposedly educated person it is amazing how wrong you are, so often.
Boerwar,
CC is sorted as far as Rudd and co are concerned. A modest ETS scheme is in place and Australia can go along with any international consensus determined later. Your carping and whingeing is so 2008.
2009 is jobs, jobs, jobs. Get with the program.
ruawake
That was an attempt at humour. Lighten up.
And I’m not sure what I said about CLL that was so offensive. Whatever it was, I apologise for.
A poor attempt
Have a look at:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18656259?ordinalpos=1&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_DiscoveryPanel.Pubmed_Discovery_RA&linkpos=4&log$=relatedarticles&logdbfrom=pubmed
Especially the bit that says “Physician use of specific euphemistic phrases to characterize CLL (e.g., “CLL is the ‘good’ leukemia”) was also associated with lower emotional QOL among patients (p<0.001). ”
Amigo GG,
My “Theory of wRONgness” is the equivalent of “The Theory of Everything” that Einstein failed to reach and Hawkins is still striving.
Basically, it says EVERYTHING about Diog is wRONg.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory_of_everything
Whereas Amigo Ronnie is the classical representation of the STRING THEORY that combines the quantum mechanics of his posts and general relativity theory of the gravity of his prose, which only very few can really comprehend the profound implications for our universe. btw where is Amigo Ronnie.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/String_theory
ruawake
Thank you. I wasn’t aware of that study but I’ll take that on board. There are some studies about improved prognosis in breast cancer if patient’s have a “positive attitude”. I doubt that the doctor influences that though.
I certainly never would say something like CLL being the “good leukemia”. ALL’s prognosis is much better but there are no good diseases. Even when I talk to patient’s about BCC, which is about as harmless a cancer as possible (I’ve never seen a death), I don’t use that phrase. I’m just out to dinner with friend I’ve known for 30 years who got multiple myeloma at 30. He’s doing fantastically (two bone marrow transplants later).
If it’s any comfort, doctors tend to minimise their own and their relatives illnesses. That’s partly why so many commit suicide. It’s not just our patients we ignore .
#305
What else is there for me to say?
GG @ 306 -
2009 is jobs, jobs, jobs. Get with the program.
Germany, China, America and Spain have created several hundred thousand jobs on the back of Australian solar technology. Foreigners in the know come here to what they regard as solar’s holy grail expecting to see PVC panels everywhere and are left mystified by our indifference.
Especially, when they find out Rudd’s ETS is just a huge welfare scheme for the carbon based energy industry which will likely see our CO2 emissions increase by 10-20%, not fall 5% as claimed and which does nothing to boost investment in alternative energy. That’s an even worse outcome than we could have expected from arch climate change skeptic, John Winston Howard. I’m sure he must be alternating between wetting himself giggling and kicking himself for not having thought of the scam.
If Rudd was serious about jobs he’d use the billions he’s going to gift the coal power generators to boost the economy instead. As the white paper states, they’ll do alright without the largess.
________________________________________________
“By 2020 no Australian polluter will live in poverty”
Mayo,
If it’s such a goer then why don’t you punt your own money or form a consortium or do something apart from lecture the world about its failings to meet your standards of intellectual excellence.
gg @ 306
‘CC is so 2008 and jobs are 2009?’
Well, actually, it will be lack of jobs for 2009, and CC will destroy more jobs than Rudd would ever dream of creating in a life-time of well-crafted, practical and balanced re-elections.
Why lefties kow tow to King Coal is beyond me.
GG @ 313
Is your avatar a Jackie?
I agree that the job claims about low ETS targets are dubious. It is not so much jobs as money and the influence of a powerful union (CFMEU). The biggest at risk indsutry is not coal but aluminium, which is a high subsidy, low value, low employment industry.
As for overall jobs targets, I agree with Mayo. Julie “maths skills” Bishop has set way too high a target. Our not reaching it will only underline Australia’s relatively good economic position. Demographic change alone (declining % of working age population) means we will not see the same level of unemployment as the 70s, even if we have as bad a recession. There are more retirees needing services and fewer young looking for jobs. So 8% ain’t going to happen. Given a realistic stimulus and funding of major projects, we shouldn’t even get close.
Anyway, happy new year. Go Lions
GG @ 313
So, to be consistent with your standards, you have rounded up some mates to generate investments in King Coal? If so, you would have some good mates in the Liberal Party. *lol*. Wasn’t there an Energy and Resources Minister in an earlier Howard Government who, or whose family, was absolutely rolling in coal shares? No conflict of interest there, btw? I think Howard was good mates with him and they may even have shared flatspace at one stage. I might be wrong on all these little details – but you get the drift. The Libs were in bed with King Coal.
I do have a small investment where my mouth is, more or less, at. Check out Dyesol:
http://www.eco-web.com/register/01031.html
IMHO, an excellent Australian breakthrough technological development which will have world-wide implications in terms of reducing the costs of third generation solar. My only real worry is (not the money – too small an amount) that successive Australian Government approaches will end up with this important bit of solar technology also heading overseas. For our economic future we desperately need to hang onto this sort of stuff and to develop our own sunrise industries around it. My guess? It is a takeover target by O/S solar interests and, yet again, others will benefit from truly exceptional Australian scientific brains and from the lack of brains on the part of governments.
BTW, Martin Ferguson knows about Dyesol and is supportive, but, unfortunately, you can’t isolate particular Ministerial support for this stuff from the Government’s generally unsupportive approach to solar in its CC response framework. Yes, yet another small victory for King Coal. A fomer Lib Minister for Energy and Resources would probably be pleased as punch.
* conflict of interest statement. I have shares in Dyesol.
Warwick Parer was the Howard Minister with millions in mining shares. It was embarrassing as I recall because back then it was before he put in all the escape clauses in his code of conduct
Happy or not, that is the reality of the situation and always will be Boerwar. You are right. The only difficulty for people like yourself is coming to terms with that fact.
I really think the problem you’re having stems from your naive belief that Rudd was above politics. Anyone who saw how he operated all through 2007 could only come to one conclusion, that being that this man is a master politician.
So doing something, like setting up the whole mechanism, is worse than doing nothing? I just must be missing something.
So tell me, which comes first, destroying jobs in one area or creating new jobs in another area?
Gary Bruce
Good point, true, true, he tricked me, a little bit *grins sheepishly*. I had some naive thoughts that Rudd was a leader with some sort of vision for the future other than for his own re-election. It is why I voted for him. Silly me. His response to CC scuppered those sort of thoughts completely. On second-order issues he has been quite good and I have been pleased. It is just on the one big thing that I mark him as a ‘Fail’.
I do recall thinking during the election that he was uncannily like Howard in his single-minded approach to garnering and maintaining power. So, perhaps I was not completely naive, just hopeful? Unsurprisingly, the system best rewards evolutionary convergent HowRudds, or, as you call them, ‘master politicians’. Occasionally, a truly great leader comes along who changes the system. Rudd is not one of them, so, to the degree that Australia will contribute effectively to the development of an international CC response, that response will be inadequate.
The party/political vacuum flask and the folk who inhabit it will continue to say, ‘balanced’, ‘practical’, ‘realistic’ and so on; you know, the opposite to ‘naive’. GG (above) even thinks that ‘CC is sorted out as far as Rudd and Co are concerned’. Talk about reality! That really generated a belly laugh for me, for which I was grateful.
The reality is, that if Rudd lasts long enough, and if he is not rescued by the World’s response to CC, then of course CC will sort him out, not the other way around. That would not be such a bad thing in itself. After all, he should pay for his one big mistake. The truly bad thing is that CC reality will sort the rest of us out as well, all of us, the practical, the balanced, the pragmatic, the naive, the hopeful, and the true believers, one and all.
321 – Good passionate speech Boerwar. What I gleaned from it is that Rudd tricked you but he didn’t and you don’t like being called naive. Oh, and you obviously think Australia can save the world.
I agree with GG.
Happy New Year to all you Poll Bludgers.
There should be many interesting polls & political manouvers throughout 2009 to keep William busy directing traffic from all the regular posters on his site.
1978 Cabinet Papers have been released
And guess who was Treasurer ? 
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/01/2457498.htm?section=justin
In reply to Frank @ 324 – have bought a record player that converts LPs to CDs. Played a Redgum LP this evening “Redgum – Virgin Ground – tried to find on youtube not on video. The first verse is:
“The Money’s No Good” – Schumann
You get out of bed about half-past seven
Your days are hell so sleeping’s heaven
Unfold the paper over yesterday’s meal
Good morning Mr Howard, how do you feel?
Another batch of figures says everything’s fine
But that’s not what they’re saying on the dole-form line.
The Redgum album was released in 1980!
Gary Bruce
If it was naive of me to hope for more from Rudd on Climate Change Response than a miserable 5%-15%, a half-arsed ETS, and a wet blanket for the international negotiations, then so be it. I will fess up. I was naive in that hope. You are right, I have not enjoyed the feeling. In good faith, that naive hope earned my vote.
OTOH, in some ways some of my hopes in Rudd are being fulfilled. I believe that the initiatives taken for Indigenous people and the apology are light years ahead of where Howard would ever have got to. So, it is very satisfying for me to see that my vote was not totally wasted.
BTW, I would appreciate it if you didn’t verbal me. I have never said that Australia could save the world. (Given the Howard and Rudd Government records on CC response, perish the very thought). I have said that there was a small window of Australian influence on the only CC game in town, and that is the international negotiations. This small opportunity to make a real difference has been wasted, or even undermined, by the approach of the Rudd Government. That’s it. A Fail on the single biggest issue that the Rudd Government will ever face.
I am now hoping that what the Rudd Government does, or says it will do, will not have an impact on the final form and extent of the global climate change response. Perhaps I am being naive in that hope as well.
BTW, being consistent, I have also said that if the international game fails, Australia may as well abandon the ETS @ 5%. It would not be just a bad joke. It would be an expensive waste of money. All those regulations. All those countings of this and that and measuring of this and that. All those lawyers making contracts and all sorts of useful legal papers. All those bureaucrats. All that lobbying. All those deals. All those twists and turns. All the sharks that smell free rent. All the smaller sharks ready to take their margins on the way through. I suppose it will ‘create’ some jobs, but they would be very, very expensive jobs. Bottom line: all those overheads for mere global statistical noise, for a celestial fart’s worth of difference.
I have suggested instead that if the international negotiations fail, the 5% ETS funding would be better allocated to ameliorating climate change damage, starting with Australia’s first climate change victims – those who have already lost their livelihoods in the Murray Darling Basin.
To reiterate my main message: There is a difference between a good politican, even a master politician, and a good leader. Good politicians more or less muddle through pretty well in normal times and within the existing systems. Master politicians go a step further. They achieve some remarkable things within the system. On the other hand, good leaders rise to abnormal times and may change systems to do so. We have very abnormal times. We need a leader but we have a master politician – a HowRudd, noting that the values of the HowRudds can influence the delivery of bounded outcomes.
I note you agree with GG that ‘CC is sorted out as far as Rudd and Co are concerned’. LoL. It would be nice to think that Climate Change trends show even the faintest traces of the Rudd and Co ’sorting out’. OTOH, Rudd and Co may have plenty of opportunity to sort out what CC delivers over the next 12 years or so.
Boerwar,
Coming in off a long run at 5 am. The pills or alcohol must be working.
CC is sorted in that this Government has laid down its policy for all to see, examine and criticise. I don’t envisage any significant change to that policy during this term. I expect the Libs will support the Government in the end. Effectively, parties representing 85% + of the Australian poplulation will have reached a consensus. Ain’t politics grand?
That you find yourself outside that consensus is disappointing for you and all the other left wing green fundamentalists. It seems that the number of words generated by this cabal is inversely proportional to the amount of popular support they have in mainstream Australia.
But, of course you always have your delusional moral perspective of saving the world from itself. You also have your quasi religious scientific modelling to fall back on (add 0.1 degree and the moon will become a desolate and sparse wasteland or is that Adelaide. Sometimes it is hard to tell the difference). Finally, you can always resort to that cute doe eyed look as you lament that Rudd has disappointed you.
Please keep up the invective against those of us who believe in modest change and trust their elected government to come up with realistic solutions to complex problems. And, don’t let me stop you whingeing. It helps our cause!
Re unemployment, I’d have thought Gillard’s 5.75% is quite optimistic. However it’s early days yet, maybe we’ll be fine, another three months and we’ll have much more idea. And I agree Bishop is a moron for predicting 8%, why not just hold Gillard accountable for her prediction?
Re CC, I think GG and GB miss the point. Like many Liberals I am perfectly happy with what Rudd has now proposed, it is a sensible and measured approach that is appropriate for a player of Australia’s (somewhat limited) importance. That doesn’t alter the fact that he led people to believe back in 2007 that we could lead the world in combating CC. I always thought this was a ludicrous proposition and Rudd himself has proved me right.
Happy New Year all.
Dyno,
Like the strawman argument at the end. However, the reality is Rudd promised to ratify Kyoto, appointed Garnaut to investigate and report back on CC and promised to introduce an ETS sooner rather than later. Mission Accomplished.
That the Libs could have (should have) done the same was their missed opportunity. Who misled the electorate by going to the polls with a “ludicrous” policy and now have flip flopped to basically support the policy of Rudd and Co? Hint it is not Labor.
http://news.smh.com.au/business/fraser-hiked-up-locally-produced-petrol-20090101-781d.html
Janet should have made a similar statement in support of Work Choices, it would have reassured people and we may have seen a different outcome at the election.
Boerwar, same comparisons were done of Hawke in the early years, I remember the sketches by socialist papers showing Hawke metamorphising into Fraser under the heading ‘ “Awke” its Malcolm Hawke”.
Hawke and co ended up achieving a lot and agree with you that Rudd may too and at this stage he is looking like the riskless taker of Malcolm Hawke.
Well I’m certainly not here to defend Howard’s CC policy.
Having said that, do you think Garnaut is happy with what Rudd has done – sure doesn’t look like it to me!
I have no doubt Rudd will get away with this bit of cynicism – new Govts (of either persuasion) nearly always do. But why pretend it is anything other than politically motivated cynicism?
Dyno,
You call it cynicism, I call it the introduction of a broadly accepted ETS policy. Your only grievance seems to be it wasn’t your side that done it.
Here’s an interesting take on the Liberal predicament. Wouldn’t want to be Malcolm driving ETS reform through his party.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuId=9&ContentID=114112
More Liberal propaganda. Rudd at no time mentioned targets. Please back this statement of yours up Dyno with words from Rudd’s mouth and none of this “Oh, he didn’t actually say it, he just gave the impression” BS. That’s on a par with Milne’s “Rudd promised lower petrol prices and food prices” argument. Total crap.
333 – Spot on GG.
Greensborough Growler (328) – Good shot old boy. Straight over the bowlers head for 6.
Greensborough Growler @ 313 -
Mayo,
If it’s such a goer then why don’t you punt your own money
Well I’ve already invested nearly $6K on personal renewable energy, and am now actively pursuing opportunities in large-scale (1 MW/p+) solar projects in Spain. With a government guaranteed tariff of between AU$0.65 – 0.90 KW/h for 25 years (which provides a minimum return of 12%) it is too good to pass up. The only barrier is language.
Gary Bruce @ 320
So doing something, like setting up the whole mechanism, is worse than doing nothing? I just must be missing something.
What part of the “‘mechanism,’ as announced, will produce a worse outcome than if nothing was done,” don’t you understand Gary?
So tell me, which comes first, destroying jobs in one area or creating new jobs in another area?
Who is claiming that one has to precede the other? Do you have any evidence that employment in Denmark, which now produces nearly 20% of its electricity needs from renewables, has been adversely affected? What about Germany, America, China, or Spain? Each are continuing to invest heavily in renewable energy projects despite the GFC. Indeed, it is about the only bright spot of their economies ATM.
According to the green paper, even a real 25% target would, at worst, have only reduce GDP growth, note growth, not total GDP, by 1% by 2020. Which means it would have taken 3 or 4 months longer to achieve a particular growth target. That is insignificant, especially when compared to the effects CC will have on GDP.
For that matter, do you have any evidence that workers in the coal-fired generator sector are at greater risk of becoming unemployed?
Both the green and white paper state (from CPRS vol 2, p 13-10):
Mayo,
Sources of “Personal renewable energy”: An investment Guide.
1. A new bed? A steady but snoring return on investment.
2. A new bed and a new girlfriend? Expensive to start up and you can’t always be sure you have the right equipment.
3. Your new girl friend on your new bed and her father with a shotgun? Can mean an overcommittment to ageing technology that is very expensive to liquidate when a better opportunity arises.
In search of a new political term.
My two favourites from the Krugman blog are:
Now I get where you are coming from Mayo. Yep, I’d be pissed too if a government stood in my way of making a good living I must admit.
Mayo, with all due respect, what part of “start slowly so that all are on board and something actually happens” don’t you understand?
MayoFeral at 292. No doubt the water in the lakes and lower Murray had elevated salt levels but nothing like sea water (30,000ppm). Humans find water at around 10% of that level too salty to drink so there is plenty of room to speculate. The whole area being tidal does mean some mixing of sea water but your note from Sturt doesn’t tell us much beyond the water is too salty to drink. Having marine fish species up the river again doesn’t tell us much about salt levels – many fish species are happy to move between the sea and fresh water rivers as part of their life cycle.
Gary @ 341/2
If I wanted to make a good living in Australia, I’d invest in coal. Thanks to Rudd the industry is in for a bonanza!
Australia’s action or inaction don’t affect whatever opportunities are available elsewhere. Indeed, if anything, Australia’s disinterest may spur those countries that are serious, like Spain, to go the extra mile, possibly making investing in their renewable initiatives even more attractive.
As for the “start slowly” policy, there are several problems you need to address.
Firstly, whether the target is 5%, 15%, 25% or 100%, under the announced model the outcome will still be more CO2 emitted than by doing nothing, at least the same, probably greater disincentives for renewables, and the same signal to the rest of the world that despite our whining about being the country that will suffer the most in a hotter world we’re not actually prepared to help ourselves in any meaningful way.
Unless the fundamental flaws the government has introduced in the white paper – the massive wealth transfer to emitters, the free permits with an inbuilt automatic increases as emissions grow (by 2020 nearly half of all the permits issued will be freebies which will put an enormous strain on those not getting them, assuming the government doesn’t cave in, which it will unless it wants to see an unemployment rate well into double figures), allowing unused freebies to be sold, the inefficiencies of only having a few emitters in the scheme plus lesser concerns too numerous to mention – are fixed the target doesn’t matter because it won’t be met.
Secondly, the only time any target other than the 5% is mentioned in the white paper is in reports of submissions received to the initial green paper. The white paper contains almost no modelling or calculations for any other target.
Thirdly, having showered the worst emitters with largess for a paltry 5%, where is the money coming from to compensate them as “adequately” for 15/20/25%? Increased taxation? LOL
The government has shot its bolt on 5%, Gary. That is all there is, the rest is plain, unadulterated bull manure.
MayoFeral
spot on
GB, GG et al
Happy to discuss issues but I will be ignoriing personal attacks which seems to be your plan B when, for party political reasons, you are stuck with an indefensible policy:
a 5% bad joke, an an international wet blanket in the negotiations, and a badly flawed ETS.
If the Liberals do end up supporting it, it will be because it is generally consistent with what they have been espousing for their 11 years of do-nothing on CC response. Why this would be regarded as a sign of success is beyond me. What we will have is the triumph of the Howrudds and a major failure of public policy.
Well amusing to see Turnbull’s New Year’s message on TV tonight – “cheer up this year shouldn’t be so bad”! Whuh? Obviously someone has told him the doom and gloom spiel wasn’t helping his ratings so now he is switching to a more positive spin. Presumably it will leave him better placed to attaack the government if things go worse. The funny thing is, next to his previous negative statements and now Bishop’s (unnecessary) prediction of 8% unemployment it is completely schizophrenic. Do the coalition think we are facing a problem or not? Do they plan to support stimulus measures or oppose them? First QT in 2009 should be a hoot.
Socrates @ 346
Yes, they are a rabble. Turnbull should have used the off season for a spring clean with Julie first out the door. His problems were the crazy right and the disproportionate number of WA libs. They now include his polling numbers and the increasing sense of doom.
Costello is positioning himself. The only real question left for the Libs is, ‘When?’ He himself must be wondering, ‘Why?’
NZ’s Conservative Government are going to scale back their CC targets to fit Rudd’s.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10548431
Last year was an excellent year for Labor according to the polls. I see no reason for that to change in 2009. Rudd and his team have done an outstanding job given it was their first year in government after almost 12 years.
The strongest and most economically responsible initiative to be introduced was the CPRS, with its guaranteed minimum cut of 5% to 15% in emissions. Any hope for the conservatives of Rudd acting economically irresponsible with the ETS (as some have suggested here) has flown out the window.
Rudd has acted on CC, has acted properly, and will be rewarded at the next election.
Centre
I’m sure the ETS has gone down well, although that doesn’t mean it was the right thing to do to meet “the greatest moral challenge of our generation”.
Be that as it may, Rudd is still committed to a 60% carbon reduction by 2050, based on 2000 levels. I’m not sure how a 5% reduction over the 20 years from 2000-2020 means we are on target for the 55% reduction needed over 30 years to 2050.
5% over 20 years followed by a further 55% over the next 30 years. So we need to increase our drop in emissions by 7 times after 2020 compared to the years before.
It just ain’t gonna happen.
GB
I have relaxed and drunk some good wine over the break and thought more about the Rudd ETS proposal. Thanks to a kind gift from Xanthippe I have even read some of the Garnaut Report. I am still dissappointed and concerned about the Rudd ETS, especially the 90% free permits and the compensation. I can understand the politics and hope that after aceptance this will lead to a better ETS target in future. However I do have two concerns:
- there is an implicit assumption in the Rudd ETS scheme that we must “save” our emission intensive industries. There is one obvious standout – aluminium smelting. Trouble is, that is a bit like the previous government’s plan to save six cylinder cars – it assumes the market won’t change anyway. We are spending a lot of money protecting a small number of jobs in aluminium. Could we generate more jobs with the same cash in renewables? Garnaut suggests we might. Likewise the single easiest way to get a 20% reduction would be to give aluminium smelting the flick. Its a given the coal industry will surivive in the medium term, though it stops expanding.
- my second concern is the bit accurately quoted by Mayo 338, that the renewable jobs wil show up in the same spots as the current coal jobs because of the location of the power infrastructure. This is false. Some of our power transmission infrastructure is just in the wrong place, especially as brown coal fields close down. The best wind, geothermal and solar prospects are in other places. So jobs will be lost in places like Latrobe Valley. We need a plan for those places.
Maybe we should get Obama over here and put Kevin07 under the bus so the lovely Julia can take over. 2014 is just too long to wait.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/australias-love-affair-with-julia-gillard/2008/12/31/1230681578209.html
A song for her from Ted and the gang.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1fvYjSfsis
Diogenes, do you know something, the action that many here are asking with climate change rests with your hero Barack Obama.
“the greatest moral challenge of our generation”
How do you think Australia is travelling at the moment compared to the rest of the world given the global financial crisis? That is all because of the mining boom! But some of you ALARMISTS don’t even want to consider the consequences to our economy, not that we could make much difference on our own anyway.
Diogenes
So, a conservative, right-wing NZ PM goes for the Rudd Labor Government outcomes?
We can ‘honest’, to ‘balanced’, ‘practical’, ‘realistic’ as the leitmotiv spin words of the Howruddian CC Response Fudge Policy. Now, whenever a conservative politician starts using the word ‘honest’, who does that remind me of?
Still, what is bad news for some is good news for others.
Munich Re said the year was marked by high losses from weather-related natural disasters, continuing a long-term trend. Fortunately, not all were insured.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-ap-eu-germany-munich-re-disasters,0,2889834.story
Centre
I don’t agree that its as simple as “the economy OR the ETS”. Garnaut deals with this at some length and dismisses that claim. As several have pointed out in previous threads. The amount already spent on bailouts in the GFC exceeds that needed to convert the whole US and European economies to alternative energy.
As my post 351 suggests, even if we accept coal for the short/medium term, we could still go close to a 20% reduction by winding back the aluminium industry. The cost is not that high in jobs or $. Energy alternatives would create more jobs.
Socrates, I have never said it is as simple as “the economy OR the ETS”.
It’s all about BALANCE, given ALL conditions and circumstances. Something many on the far left fail to understand.
Socrates @ 351 -
Some of our power transmission infrastructure is just in the wrong place, especially as brown coal fields close down.
I can’t access my copy of the WP ATM to quote the relevant passages, but I think what they were getting at on jobs being retained in major energy producing regions like the Latrobe Valley was that in addition to believing renewables will be attracted to the existing infrastructure, which you rightly point out may not be quite that simple, there is also the possibility of converting some boilers to run on cleaner fuels, particularly natural gas, thus extending their useful life-spans in a carbon restrained world. Indeed, it says that many coal-fired boilers are already sometimes fueled with gas and oil for short periods. The Latrobe Valley is only a relatively short hop from the Bass Strait oil/gas fields and the Moomba-Adelaide NG pipeline runs very close to the only other brown coal power station at Pt. Augusta.
I’m due to fly OS tomorrow morning, but will try to post the page numbers before I go. Failing that, from memory, they’re in vol2, section 13 or 14.
The best wind, geothermal and solar prospects are in other places.
Another factor is that the current high voltage AC grid may not be the most efficient for the type of power produced by renewables. Some American solar researchers are claiming lower voltage DC is better for transmitting solar generated electricity long distances. I’m guessing that is also the case for wind. I have no idea what this means in terms of the wires strung, but assume it may require some reconfiguration of the grid.
So jobs will be lost in places like Latrobe Valley. We need a plan for those places.
Agreed. But as far as I can see they haven’t even begun to address it at the federal level, though I recall that the Victorian government has raised it. Can’t be too critical though. Until a few months ago it looked like our biggest employment problem was finding more workers.
“How do you think Australia is travelling at the moment compared to the rest of the world given the global financial crisis?”
I’d say we’re about six months behind them. A bit like being on the part of the Titanic that sank last.
(Though, given that I am a small business owner, I’m hoping to be proved wrong).
Mayo
My understanding is that high voltage transmission is equally efficient regardless of the type of energy source. You get an initial loss in converting the current to high voltage and again at the distribution end, but that is the same for any input energy. In between high voltage transmission loses about 1% per 100km, so even 1000km is only a 10% loss. The problem here is not the efficieny of the power transmission lines we have, but lack of capacity – there are many places where we don’t have high capacity lines available. For alternatives I am familiar with (wind on SE SA / SW Vic, geothermal in NW NSW/SW Qld)) there is NO major transmission capacity near them. We need to invest in that grid capacity to make them viable in large scale.
Interested in any references you have.
dyno
I suppose nobody knows for sure but I really don’t think we will be as badly off as USA or even Europe. Its not just time; our circumstances are different – we don’t have any significant public debt (except NSW
) and can spend to stimulate the economy. Given competent policy (Henry and Stevens have been good so far) and no vandalism in the Senate, it shouldn’t be that bad here.
Dyno
Very, very uncertain. I follow the stock market pundits with interest and they have been wrong, wrong, wrong – except when they have been professional Bears, OR when they have said ‘on the one hand, and, on the other hand’ OR when they have started to get really pessimistic.
The major economies in the EU and the US are probably facing further job losses in the order of hundreds of thousands in the first quarter of next year. There is chat about a further 10 major retail chains going under in the UK alone. Britain is in for a shocker. France is expecting a further 170,000 job losses in the first quarter of next year. I am not sure whether people have done calculations to take into affect of job losses on further job losses. For example, restaurant jobs will go as people spend less or not at all on luxe items et cetera. China’s job losses would not be finished. Hard to say, buy I would expect order of magnitude job losses to be more likely to be in the order of millions there than in hundreds of thousands. I am not sure about the flow on effects on Australia but these could include:
1. heavily reduced terms of trade
2. reduced inbound tourism, matched with reduced domestic tourism (some regional areas will do well in Australia, others will be devastated
3. world commodity prices including those for Australian agricultural exports have halved during the Crisis
4. there will be a reduction in demand for some of our exports eg coal and iron ore. Major companies have already reduced capital and exploration programmes and some have already reduced outputs. I would anticipate more of this to come.
The Great Unknown, IMHO, is when all that liquid capital that is now just sitting around the world (waiting for reduced risks) will finally be unleashed. How that will affect Australia is difficult to assess. There is an awful lot of super money sitting around in Australia. But the o/s mobs have marked the Oz banks down very heavily, so not much o/s capital is venturing into Oz. All very difficult to predict.
I love the way that terms like “far left” are used to trivialise and marginalise anyone who dissents. It’s been one of the greatest achievements of Bush, Cheney and Rove to throw in a “liberal left” or “ultra-progressive” to denigrade the views of others. Howard used it a lot too. It’s great to see that Labor supporters have taken up where Howie left off when people disagree with them.
Diogenes,
I have a lot of sympathy for this comment. Those of us who vote Liberal have become very used to being termed “right-wing”. Labelling of this nature is usually a device to avoid answering the person’s specific points, in my experience.
dyno
I don’t mind it as a non-judgmental adverb, although the meaning left, right, centre is just a convenient shorthand. It doesn’t really add much to a debate.
It’s when the terms are used perjoratively in the place of reasoned statement that it really is just an “argumentum ad hominem” (GG always loves it when I use that phrase). The terms socialist, Fabian, communist, capitalist, libertarian and neoconservative etc all provide information about an ideology. But they are often perverted into a form of derision.
happy new year to all
have been following the discussion here quite keenly.
I do believe a certain maturity has been reached regarding the quality of information.
Doubly good to see that alternative views can mostly be espoused.
As an aside am redaing a greta book on curtin,am just up to the langites and their various intrigues.
Dyno, to cut a long story short, if our economy was not as strong thanks to the mining boom, our interest rates would have been lower, leaving us with VERY little room to move. We are in a MUCH stronger position than most in the world.
Boerwar, all financial institutions around the globe have been downgraded. But Australia’s are probably fundamentally the strongest.
Diogenes, I will change far left to “so loony far left that I would be more comfortable voting for the liberals”, just for you.
as a point of relevance
Curtin faced and lived thru the great depression,was part of scullins govt. and saw the changing nature of money and credit
Although the times are markedly different ,the root cause remains the same
Nationalisation of certain sectors of the financial system was being considered,which ultimately led to the “nationalise the banks” of ‘49
Curtins passionate belief in the socialisation of capital,rings ever truer now.
I don’t know why so many are so thick and don’t get it and can’t understand Rudd’s higher concern with the economic debate. I guess later this year a sledge hammer will make it all make sense. And when that environment arises there will be only one thing on people’s mind.
TP
I guess people dont see the irony in the last major communist stae determining the fate of the capitalistic system as we presently know it.
Centre @ 366
I agree with your point. To clarify: I wasn’t making a personal judgement on Australia’s financial system.
I was making the point that overseas investors have reached adverse conclusions, and have marked the Oz banks down. My only uncertainty would be the under-reporting by the banks of bad debt risks. For example, one at least of them has under-written capital guarantees for managed investments that mostly likely went into free-fall last year but no-one has gone public on that yet. The bank concerned will have to pick up the difference. I just don’t know the quantum.
Thomas Paine @ 366
Not sure who you are talking about but to clarify my views:
1. I have been much more pessimistic about the global economy and its follow-on impacts on the Australian economy than most of the posters here. For example, prior to reading your post I had put my estimate of Chinese job losses to come in order of magnitude of millions.
2. I support Rudd’s interventions on the economy to date. He has had a very limited bag of tricks and he has played them well.
3. I support the way in which the Government has somewhat over cooked the egg on the short- and medium- term prospects for the same reason. It helps to address the destructive fear factor. (Mind you, people who have invested on the basis of Governmental over-positivism may turn a tad resentful, ultimately).
4. I regard the economic crisis, whether it lasts one, five years or ten years, as essentially a short term issue.
5. I regard the climate response stuff as a long-term issue. There are obvious connects at many levels but the strategies should operate on different time lines.
6. Conflating the short- and long-term issues is an easy cop-out for those who actually want to talk about CC responses rather than doing anything. For such folk, it is always the wrong time.
Centre @ 366,
Not sure if we are in a MUCH stronger position than others around the world – we will see. I also think the strength of our banks is one of the key reasons we are better off than most – but I am less convinced than you that the mining boom is going to save us – look at what is going on in China.
Also, you say all financial institutions around the world have been downgraded. When were our Big 4 banks downgraded?
Whether or not we are in a stronger position than the rest of the world, our current leaders are not as stupid as some. Here are some recent artiicles on how Peer Steinbrueck the German Finance Minister is still worried about the risk of a “growth bubble”!!
http://business.smh.com.au/business/german-minister-warns-of-growth-bubble-20081231-77io.html
Krugman comments on it here as “Crying fire-fire in Noah’s flood”:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
Up to a point he is right – you don’t want to set up conditions now to create another bubble in the future. But that is simplistic – the bubble didn’t just happen because of low interest rates. That ignores lack of regulation, fraud and perverse incentives in finance. Overall the urgent need is to get things moving, not slow down.
Diogenes,
Using “absurdum ad hominems” is simply denying people your “essence” of thought.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1KvgtEnABY
Here is another really good explanation from Krugman of why US state governments are being really stupid cutting spending. By this definition NSW could be considered a US State.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/29/opinion/29krugman.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
This illustrates something bad I perceived when I worked in Canberra. Outside of professionals in Treasury and the Reserve Bank, there are a lot of people in government (and the private finance industry too), including not only politicians but some senior bureaucrats, who have only a very superficial knowledge of economics. They have a “soundbite” level of understanding, and know the currently fashionable jargon words to use, but they don’t know or understand the underlying theory. So if “balanced budgets” and “AAA credit ratings” is the fashionable way for governments to look responsible, that is what they say and go for. But if things change so that balanced budgets are stupid, and AAA ratings are disredited anyway, they don’t know what to do. Here I think Turnbull’s flip-flops, and NSW Labor’s one-brain-cell mini-budget prove the point.
These people are concerned about image, because they have no substance. Only by now it has gotten so bad that even their advisors lack substance, because the advisor’s job is to advise them on how to improve their image.
Thanks GG that link is wonderful. I haven’t seen Dr Strangelove in years; makes me want to find a DVD.
The new year has arrived!
Reading predictions on the GFC leads me to ponder what will this year bring! I agree we are approaching a point where things will either improve or worsten, back in March I felt sure that while the U.S was heading to recession that we could avoid one and the Government has moved to enhance the performance of the economy.
Unfortuntely we are seeing some downturn and in reality last year we went quite well, in hindsight and at the time I criticised the RBA but 12 months ago they increased rates and since then the economy has slowed, therefore I am not sure we apart from the stock market have been impacted on by the GFC!
Yes China is slowing and that has had an effect on the miners but it was reported several years ago that post games, China would slow and that has happened, our financial sector has suffered some blow back effects but again the balance sheets of our financials are quite healthy, yes there have been a few that are either gone or under pressure but if that a result of the GFC or a result of their general performance.
I’m inclinde to agree with the Government regarding the potential unemployment rate rather than the very gloomy forecast put out by several economist, the very same ones who this time last year were talking about several rate rises, I recall some predicted rates would rise by several points.
Therefore I am still tipping Australia will avoid a recession but I would not be surprised if there was at least one negative quarter, the factors for this, we have lowering interest rates and lowering petrol prices.
GG
You have hit the nail on the head there. I saw that Queenslanders are having water fluoridation FORCED on them in a dastardly plot by the evil Bligh to contaminate all their precious bodily fluids. I think they are the last state not to have fluoridation. Once they succumb, Australia will become an army of mindless zombies controlled by you know who…
(a) Eddie Maguire and Collingwood?
(b) The Australian Cricket Selectors who don’t seem to want to exchange any bodies much less their fluids?
(c) Is Mrs Diogenes aiming to extend her influnce?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=ptccZze7VxQ
MB
Previous on the ball predictions by economists:
Interest rates to hit double digits;
$AUS to hit parity with $USD;
$NZ to hit parity with $AUD;
Oil to hit $USD200 a barrel;
Petrol prices to hit $3 a litre and days of petrol below $1 a litre gone for good.
Agree we may avoid a recession, lot depends on consumer confidence, those with jobs now have extra money in their pockets from lower interest rates and petrol prices. Around $9,000 saved on interest rates and $5,000 on petrol, if only 1/3 of these savings are ploughed back into the economy thorugh goods, holidays and such then it will help. We should also see lower inflation and prices flow from this. Imports will be priced higher, helping local manufacturing whilst our exports will be cheaper and bring in more in $AUD terms.
But consumer confidence can be fragile and having Turnbull running around like a headless chook screaming the sky is falling and Bishop talking of mega unemployment does not help.
I’m really beginning to detest Turnbull. He now believes that he can speak for the Australian people when he employs his latest dog whistle. For some reason, it’s “unacceptable” for a few poor buggers from Gitmo who were found to have to have done nothing after five years locked up to come to Australia as migrants.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24864677-5005962,00.html
Diogenes,
I wonder what he would have said in 1788?
Although his ancestor William Bligh (of Rum Rebellion fame) probably did not have much positive to say about the convict settlers either.
I do not see any reason why Australia whould be taking ex-gitmo bay inmates, as far as I can tell they have a country to return to therefore that is where they should go, lets remember they did not seek to go to America they were forced to go therefore they should be allowed to return to their homeland.
Further to my point! International law says that if a person is arrested as part of a war they must be allowed to return to their homeland therefore PM Rudd needs to remind the Americans that while Australia has an open immigration policy Australia will not commit what is lagally speaking a war crime! the only thing that would change this is if the Inmate chooses to coem to Australia then the normal Immigration rules would be followed.
mb
These are ones who can’t return to their countries for unspecified “security” reasons.
At the risk of starting a flamewar, voluntary euthanasia is topical in SA ATM because Kym Bonython (who’s a famous adventurer etc in SA and used to live across the road from me when I was a kid) has urged politicians to pass right-to-die legislation on the front page of the Tiser. He uses the well-known figure of 80% of the population supporting it. Personally, I don’t agree with it but I’m in the minority.
Adventurer wants right to die
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24863965-5006301,00.html
mb
That’s an excellent point. It wasn’t clear whether the unspecified “security” reasons for not returning to wherever were imposed on the inmate or whether the inmate requested not to be returned for security reasons. The article just says;
Just quickly respond to Dyno and Boerwar:
372 – The mining boom has already contributed greatly to face challenges that lie ahead. Our banks have been downgraded in unison to others in the world as further information which directly affects us has come to hand.
370 – The opinions of the market have downgraded our banks, not necessarily overseas investers. But you are right, disclosure is of absolute paramount importance, such as bad debt provisions, to maintain and enhance the integrity of the market.
I agree TP @ 368.
Have a good one guys.
Michelle Grattan provides a good account as to what may unfold for our political leaders over the next 12 months.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/toughing-it-out-20090101-78ez.html
Gary
That article certainly reinforces GG’s comments that the ETS is basically over as a major issue (until Copenhagen I suspect) and that 2009 is all about jobs, jobs, jobs. I really believe those jobless percentages are going to be watched as closely at the interest rate changes have been.
New thread.