It’s looking a very merry Christmas for pensioners and families and, not unrelatedly, the Rudd government, which has added a further 1 per cent to its already formidable two-party lead in a Christmas eve Morgan face-to-face poll. Curiously, the Greens are down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent in a survey conducted half before and half after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement of December 15. The slack has been taken up by a spike in the Labor primary vote from 48.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent, their best result in almost seven months. The Coalition primary vote is also up slightly, from 34.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent.
Morgan also produced two sets of leadership ratings last week, one comparing Rudd to Turnbull and the other comparing them both with their party colleagues. Rudd’s approval rating was up four points from the previous survey of October 15-16 to 68 per cent, while his lead over Turnbull as preferred prime minister had blown out from 62.5-24 to 69-20. Worringly for Turnbull, his approval rating was down 13 per cent to 42 per cent while his disapproval was up from 24 per cent to 37.5 per cent, a much sharper turnaround than recorded by Newspoll over the same period (from 50-25 to 47-32). The preferred Labor leader results turned up no surprises, but the Liberal ratings interestingly found Turnbull tied with Peter Costello on 28 per cent. This compared with Costello’s lead of 31 per cent to 20 per cent in the previous such survey of September 10-11, when Brendan Nelson was still leader.
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Greetings Bludgers – hope the holiday period is good for all. At least the neocons have taken a whacking both here and in The US…things are looking upfor 2009- apart from catastrphic global warming and massive financial disastors of course. But hey- at lesat George Bush will finally be history.
Cheers.
vera, i think in one sentence you said it all.
Judith the only trouble with Warnie is that he likes the ladies and with the line up of Labor lovelies accross from him in QT he may have trouble concentrating.
I’m sure Jules will go on the front-foot and put Warnie back over his head!
MB, can I have some of what you’ve been smoking?
The Libs are now attacking the Media just as they attacked the ABC.
If only there was a ‘left-wing Media’ we may have better reporting on the progress of the Rudd Government and how pathetic are the opposition.
Dario!
My comments were based on what occured in earlier economic depressions, I was clear that it was both a worst case and extremely unlikely to happen this time.
During the Great Depression unemplyment reacted 30%
Following is an edited extract from the book Landboomers:
In the 1890s Melbourne had an unoffical unemployment rate of 50% with a large drop of its population and many suburbs like Hawthorn, Kew, South Yarra were vacent and many proposed housing estates became empty weed infested paddocks.
I will add that on both occasions the Governments added to the problem by cutting spending, wages and in the case of Scullin slashed the pension rates.
From the actions of Rudd and co it is very clear that this Government has a very different approach and for this I am confidence that Australia can remain recession free during the 2009 year.
FYI the crownies are going down very nicely! cheers
I will add one bank took 30 years to repay the 1890s era debt! How long will it take for the current debt to be paid off
The 1890s depression came on the back of possibly the worst drought of colonial times, at least in its impact on the population (the 1840s may have been more severe).
It was almost the final straw for the Caffey Brothers fledgling Mildura irrigation scheme coming after crop losses because a lack of water prevented paddle steamers transporting the produce. It wasn’t until the 1920s that Mildura began to revive. Sheep numbers more than halved and it wasn’t until the mid 1930s that they recovered to pre drought numbers. Perhaps 40% of the country’s cattle were lost too.
The bank MB mentions @ 108 was one of the lucky ones. Many went under.
ummm MayoFeral, i understand your nickname but what on earth made you choose Downer as your avatar? i would have though we’d seen enough of his smug self satisfied dial to last us a lifetime, i’m not having a go, i’m just curious, i cancelled my subs to the Advertiser after having his face leer at me from his monday morning column, ugh! no way to start a day.
i know the NSW government is badly on the nose, BUT isnt this sort of counting the chickens before the hatching.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24845988-601,00.html
Well picked up Judith! if the ALP are returned they will be hopeing no one saw that one!
It seems that some observers are underwhelmed by the origins of some of the NSW Opposition. It won’t be the cakewalk they expect once questions start being asked..
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/joehildebrand/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/hollywood_the_place_to_pick_up_coalition_policies/
ummm MayoFeral, i understand your nickname but what on earth made you choose Downer as your avatar?
A constant reminder/warning, Judith! Not that it’s worked. The new member for Mayo is proving as useless as his predecessor. Which means he’ll probably go far in the Party.
It was supposed to show him with horns, but they got lost in the image shrink
Has anyone heard anything of Cyprus lately? Given Downer’s track record the Greek and Turkish Cypriots should be at each others’ throats by now. Indeed, I’m surprised the Mediterranean isn’t running red! The entire population deserve sainthoods….or straitjackets!
111 – I thought exactly the same thing when I read that earlier Judith. I wonder how many others felt the same way.
looks like the NSWers will have a choice of bad and worse, i certainly cant see the opposition doing any better than the incumbants, but then of course i dont live there and i’m biased, surely theres some talent somewhere in the NSW political circles, does anyone have any idea whether Howard’s sticky fingers are still in the pot there? if so any talent would have been corrupted or suppressed.
MayoFeral, i shudder everytime i see a mention of Cyprus, i’m waiting for them to sue us and charge us for crimes against humanity after offloading Downer on them, poor buggas, a pal in Mayo says it’s lovely not seeing much of lord Downer swanning around the district lately, the new guy isnt much different though.
I really can’t understand the latest Tory fad of picking Shadow Ministries that don’t actually Shadow a real Minister or Ministry. It is a favorite tactic of the twice failed Springborg in Queensland but why anyone in NSW would want to play follow-the Leader with Springborg is asking to be cast aside as a joke.
In the Queensland Parliament the Shadow Ministers get up and ask a question prefaced by ‘but there isn’t a Minister responsible for that’. It makes the Shadow Minister look stupid but for some bizarre reason Tories think it is a good tactic. Can someone explain what this insane behaviour is meant to achieve?
From a political perspective it divides the Opposition, resulting in one Minister being shadowed by anything up to four or five Opposition Shadow spokespeople. It confuses the Opposition and because of this they frequently ask questions that are not relevant to a Minister’s portfolio. It makes the Opposition waste questions where one Opposition Spokesperson could follow a consistent line of attack. It makes Hansard read poorly for the Opposition. What the advantages are elude me.
they’re a weird mob.
It seems to me The Age is saying “don’t give the pensioners or low income people any more money they’ll only waste it” with this article.
Of course let’s forget that there was a shopping spree also being accredited to Rudd’s handout. note in this article that now Bishop is against the handout. Where was she when it was announced sometime back? Didn’t the Libs support it?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudds-handouts-feed-statewide-betting-binge-20081227-75xc.html
Nothing in that article surprises me but this is what frustes me witht he media for we had the media going on about penioners for weeks and weeks yet the media choose to ignore that many pensioners waste a lot of money at the pokies.
The disappointing thing is the unemployed and single low-income earners received nothing! in writing that the Governments policy appears to have worked!
I work in the CBD and I have seen an increase in shopping activity, yes I know its christmas but the vibe in the city is busy which is a good thing
Anyhow Beemer pensioner gambling is all a drop in the bucket when compared with the Billions of dollars lost by young twerps playing the derivatives markets with our Superannuation funds, Investment funds and Mortgage funds on a global scale. The losses incurred in the Private sector have actively decreased the employment opportunities for many millions around the world. I think the Age has developed a storm in a teacup with this beatup.
The Conservative government in Germany looks like dithering is the best they can do in response to the GEC.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/27/business/worldbusiness/27germany.html?ref=business
If anyone was wondering where our friend Edward St John got his screen name from, here is the background courtesy of the Great Oz Rock/Pop Website Milesago.
Under March 1969.
http://www.milesago.com/Almanac/1969.htm
sorry i don’t believe most pensioners blew their money on pokies, some will have of course –but the most, no.
i’ve a very, very, wide range of aquaintances and i dont know of one, most had a list of essentials that had built up they couldnt afford on the pension, most had a little gift list for the family, mine mainly went on installation of digital boxes for both TVs {not plasma neither just plain old ones} two leaking taps replaced, tradesmen cost the earth and a few dollars on little surprises for the great grandies, paying off a morgage doesnt give me subsidised housing, just extra bills like council, water, etc, i only bought the house to make sure my disabled son has a home.
come to think of it the last time i played the pokies was too many years ago that i cant recall, seems to me nothing could be more boring that to sit there pushing a button.
Gary,
A fairly rubbish article all round. Doesn’t have any figures to support the assertion but uses the “nod, nod, wink wink” unattributed source to establish there is a story. Next we give it a sexy name “Rudd Thursday” and get some of the usual suspects like Tim Costello to play “outraged” do gooder. Then to round it off, Julie Bishop (probably) gets verballed regarding the handout which as I understand was supported by the coalition.
It’s lucky the pensioners didn’t put the payment into stocks. Then we would have known they were gambling.
This episode proves that our pensioners only need bread and dripping to survive. Everything else is an extravagance.
Strange how there weren’t similar stories when pensioners were getting $500 bribes from Howard. Though I’m sure there was some “research or modelling.” By Crosby Textor!
That “research or modelling” line is Bishop’s stock answer to everything. When Cabinet documents are released in 30 years I’m sure many will be fascinated to see if she was asking for such research for Howard’s, allegedly long liquid lunch fuelled, back of the envelope Murray-Darling plan, the multi billion dollar Pacific Solution toilet flush, or Turnbull’s wacky $10 million scheme for drought proofing the country. I’ll be pushing up daisies by then, but I’ve got a fair idea what the documents will show: Not a single peep from Ms Bishop.
By all accounts pre Christmas retail sales were up on last year, and, at least in the eastern states, so is post activity. Which suggests that the bonuses have had some effect. Especially, in light of reports out of the U.S. and Europe that retails sales for the period are way down.
Is that article another example of the ‘left-wing’ bias of the mass media, Julie Bishop is complaining about?
Julie Bishop isnt quite as incompetent as Nelson but she runs a close second, how the hell did they last so long in government, Howard got rid of any talent one by one in case they posed a threat to him, he only kept rainman on board to keep Costello in line, besides rainman wasnt there long enough to be a threat.
Paul Daley trying his hand at comedy. I suggest he sticks to what he knows best. I’m not sure what that is but I know it isn’t comedy or political journalism.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/a-special-letter-from-me-kev-about-the-family-this-year-20081227-75vc.html
There’s a funny little political quiz here:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/12/summer-quiz-are-you-game.html
My brother is 60 and on a disability pension, lives alone in what used to be called Housing Commission housing and he was chuffed to get $1400 from Kev. First time govt gave him anything he said. He is leaving it in the bank to pay his electric and phone bills which are direct debited.
Here’s a nice heartwarming story for Christmas (if you love little critters like i do)
St Kev of Kirribilli has been out on a rescue mission
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24848945-5001021,00.html
Gary, i tried to make sense of Daley’s column and gave up, maybe he’d been celebrating xmas a little too liberally just before he wrote it.
I know there are few cricket fans here at PB.
Apparently, there is a musical about Warnie and the chorus girls are said to be very beautiful.
Hmmmm, with Warnie’s leg break, silly leg and bowling maidens, not to mention his fingers on the sex, sorry texing, you have to wonder how safe are those chorus girls.
apparently the rumour is thats he’s back as an item with his ex wife, with his track record she’s game, dunno how much reliance you can put on gossip column items, i just spotted it in passing, what a wipeout today is, i dont have foxtel, {if my girlfriend’s is a sample it’s a waste of money} i’ve got a choice of hmmm let’s see, landline, a silly movie-the fantasticks, cricket, fishing,or water skiing, time to start that new book i got for xmas.
Joshua Gans has a go at explaining the best types of economic stimulus.
http://economics.com.au/?p=1931
And one fewer after the way they played today.
Roxanna, please dont cry for me, Australia. bring back Warnie, Gilly and Oooh Aaah
i’ve never followed cricket, give me the crows and football any day, it looks like being a loooong summer, thank god for politics, the foibles of the current opposition, the pollsters and William and PB.,
Just read that Paul Daley article.
The man’s quite mad, and very, VERY unfunny.
Wonder what he’s been quaffing over the Festive Season?
exactly what i thought BB, just to think he got paid for that ramble, no wonder the papers are going broke.
Judith Barnes @ 142 -
i’ve got a choice of hmmm let’s see, landline, a silly movie-the fantasticks, cricket, fishing,or water skiing, time to start that new book i got for xmas.
‘Good’ news, Judith. By this time next year there’ll be 15 channels of pap to choose from
As for the great game, I’ve never been a Ponting fan. Believe Warne should have gotten the gig, despite the odious texting. I’d put money on there having been cricket administrators who’ve behaved at least as badly without receiving even a raised eyebrow in censure.
Evan Thornley 44 and the richest man in Victorian Parliment has resigned from Parliment. He was due to replace theo theopolus tomorrow in Cabinet.
Theo has been charged with rape and has resigned from Cabinet but not parliment.
Martin Pakula will now b likely to replace Theo.
A huge blow to the Brumby Govrnment
The Catholic Church has had a blinder over Christmas. First they get everybody who attended most church services to pray for peace in the middle east. So what happens? Over the weekend Israel attacks the Gazza Strip in the bloodiest massacre in over 30 years. What a waste of time, what a waste of prayer lol. Why don’t the Roman Catholic leaders get fair dinkum and do something constructive with their power over the debacle in the middle east instead of getting people to kneel and listen to mindlessly useless hot air. Obviously that was their christmas present to the Palestinians before Dubya is officially booted out of the White House.
Secondly, the Pope announces that homosexual behaviour is a greater threat to civilisation than climate change. There you go again! The Roman Catholic’s obsession with what people do with a particular part of their anatomy.
There’s something not right with Evan Thornley’s decision to quit parliament. I’m wondering if he was overlooked again and decided to walk.
Gary,
1. Overlooked again? He has been there 5 minutes. Please!
2. Parliament’s richest man, GFC, possible problems?
3. Health?
4. Factional infighting on the rise in Victoria. He does not have a strong factional base but allegedly had the support of Brumby. Hmm. No stomach for the fight to climb the slippery pole?
MayoFeral, even my steady ch2 has given way to the silly season, it wont be the amount of channels in a years time but the bluddy silly conteent.
Gary, yes somthing does seem a bit strange, it’s come a bit too suddenly out of the blue, cant be health he was touted for that spot this morning, surely if he had a prob he would have known before this, perhaps he’s playing the prima donna if he’s been overlooked.
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