It’s looking a very merry Christmas for pensioners and families and, not unrelatedly, the Rudd government, which has added a further 1 per cent to its already formidable two-party lead in a Christmas eve Morgan face-to-face poll. Curiously, the Greens are down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent in a survey conducted half before and half after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement of December 15. The slack has been taken up by a spike in the Labor primary vote from 48.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent, their best result in almost seven months. The Coalition primary vote is also up slightly, from 34.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent.
Morgan also produced two sets of leadership ratings last week, one comparing Rudd to Turnbull and the other comparing them both with their party colleagues. Rudd’s approval rating was up four points from the previous survey of October 15-16 to 68 per cent, while his lead over Turnbull as preferred prime minister had blown out from 62.5-24 to 69-20. Worringly for Turnbull, his approval rating was down 13 per cent to 42 per cent while his disapproval was up from 24 per cent to 37.5 per cent, a much sharper turnaround than recorded by Newspoll over the same period (from 50-25 to 47-32). The preferred Labor leader results turned up no surprises, but the Liberal ratings interestingly found Turnbull tied with Peter Costello on 28 per cent. This compared with Costello’s lead of 31 per cent to 20 per cent in the previous such survey of September 10-11, when Brendan Nelson was still leader.
391 Comments
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I hope the ALP promote Martin Pakula
I am surprised with Evan walking!
heres what he’s got to say about it.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24850298-5005962,00.html
Maybe evan realised he was not going to get very far without factional support, and did not have the stomach for a long fight.
He was also in the upper house, so further from where the real power is.
I guess he can make more money, and feels he is more in control of his destiny in the private sector.
He was not a political animal like Pakula, and decided he wanted a life!
goanna,
Don’t make him a hero. All that was evident before he ran for election two years ago. Quitting now under these circumstances is a disgrace imho.
it’s about time that those who stand for parliament and resign before their time is up other than for health or severe family probs should wear at least a percentage of the costs of the byelection, might make them think just what they want before standing in the first place.
I have some optimism that Downer will get the job done in Cyprus. If he does, he will have earned a tiny positive place in European history. Cyprus is a bit of a Gordian knot in terms of EU/Greece/Turkey relationships, which in turn are a crucial element in any long-term modus vivendi between ‘Christian’ Europe and Islam. Given the fearsomely difficult nature of the problems in Cyprus, it is actually looking positive. See a picture of a smiling MayoFeral hero, and the latest UN spin, at:
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=29330&Cr=cyprus&Cr1=
GG, I think that’s close to the mark.
I have some third-hand knowledge of his campaign. He had to accept a place in the Vic upper house only because Labor couldn’t find him a Senate seat. Federal Parliament was his main interest so it was second prize. And his position on the ticket meant he only just scraped in.
Even during his campaign he had doubts – he seems to have a somewhat insecure personality.
And after being touted as a star candidate it must have been rather humbling to have to accept he Vic upper house.
My suspicion is that having come into parliament believing he would have a major influence on policy and decisions he has realised how little impact one person can have – especially one without significant factional backing.
The disappointing thing is that this has come as a surprise to Brumby. Seems that he couldn’t really come to grips with the machinations of politics.
Vexnews have some interesting comment on Thornley here -
ttp://www.vexnews.com/news/2109/how-sweet-it-is-thornley-quits-in-an-episode-so-bizarre-jerry-springer-wouldnt-buy-it/
Mostly reasonable comment although suggestions of a scandal are probably a bit far-fetched.
I think there is more to this story but in writing that I suspect others are right he has realised that he isn’t going to rule the world and Evan strikes me as someone who likes to be in control and being a polly isn’t all glory!
Boerwar @ 156 –
I hope you’re right. The people of Cyprus have endured enough.
But I’ll believe it only when I see it and even then it might be more a case of success despite his lordship and not because of him. His career is littered with failures, bodies and shattered psyches.
Judith @ 155
Yes, it is a waste of public monies, and irritating. But, if they suffer financial penalties for going early, they may just stick around… nothing is as much a waste of important space as someone serving out their time.
I would give them an early redundancy bonus just to get rid of them.
MayoFeral @ 160
Yes, loathesome him.
Just for interest’s sake, what would you regard as his top FAILs as foreign minister, with the criterion being he made a significant personal contribution to the cockup?
Boerwar, how about the AWB fiasco, he couldnt be bothered to read his emails or dispatches, or the lead up to the Iraq war.
Boerwar, my favorite was the two pandas promised to the Gold Coast that got diverted to Adelaide during APEC last year as a subtle form of Federal electioneering.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22375646-5013650,00.html
Boerwar 162 -
Just for interest’s sake, what would you regard as his top FAILs as foreign minister,
Without a doubt, East Timor. He stymied every attempt by others to warn the Indonesian military off before the bloodshed started. Closely followed by the ‘Pacific Solution’ (totally his idea, as he proudly boasts) with AWB third in a long list.
Ah, yes, how comfortable some people are with the blood and suffering of other people. It is as if the blood never trickles up.
BTW, did Howard consult Downer on Iraq or was it all Howard’s doing?
Here’s a challenge. Read this article and tell me where WA is ranked in the list of state taxes on business.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24851190-601,00.html
Gary,
It’s a trick question
WA isn’t mentioned because we aren’t a Labor state anymore
Though for the record the WA Libs kept carrying on in opposition about the high business taxes here.
Judith Barnes at number 155:
It’s hard to go past the gall of one Peter Costello for that. Less than one week into his (current) term as Member for Higgins, he was talking about moving on. Lateline, 30 November 2007:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2106788.htm
So I thank the people of Higgins for that and I said I will serve them, I’ll play a constructive role and eventually I’ll move into the corporate sector.
VIRGINIA TRIOLI: During this term or will you see this term out?
PETER COSTELLO: Probably during this term.
VIRGINIA TRIOLI: During this term.
PETER COSTELLO: This is something that I will have to discuss.]
Besides coming across as an equivocating jellyfish, he certainly appears less than committed to honouring his commitment to the three-year term to which his constituents elected him in good faith.
And all because his party didn’t win the election. Wotta sook!
Sorry about the formatting screwup. (Bloody square brackets!) I’m sure you’ll get the gist anyway.
Steve @ 124
It is an interesting phenomenum – a conservative Government concerned about jobs rather than, in the first instance, what the business and banking CEOs want them to do: Reinforce the privatisation of profits and the socialization of debts.
The rest of Europe has become quite used to Germany acting in Europe’s interests rather than in German interests. The further we get from WW2, and post-unification, the less reasonable it is to expect the German economy to carry the can for the profligates in the rest of the EU. The screams of the spend-now-pay-later crowd in the rest of the EU for Germany to do something, anything, have abated somewhat as people have come to realize that Germany will act in its own interests and that persuasion, rather than screaming and yelling, that is required. The problem for Merkel is that she is torn between Germany’s formal European commitments and Germany’s immediate national interests. The Eurowelchers, OTOH, look quite likely to tear these up by deed, if not by word.
Cuppa @ 169
Are you in a glass house?
Boerwar number 172
I don’t understand your question: “Are you in a glass house?” and how it relates to my post at 169 about Costello not committing to a full three-year term.
Cuppa
Ah, could have worded it better. The point I was istrying to make that I suspect that members of both Labor and Liberal parties have done similar things in the past. I can’t name names but…
“The point I was istrying to make that I suspect that members of both Labor and Liberal parties have done similar things in the past. I can’t name names but…”
Boewar, don’t know about the past but the NSW Opposition is determined to do exactly that in the future.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24851803-5003402,00.html
167 Gary Bruce according to the WA midyear Review released recently:
Total Taxation ($ Million)
2007/2008 Actual 6,447
2008/2009 PFPS revision 6,287 (Pre-election Financial Projections Statement)
2008/2009 Mid Year Revision. 5,896
2009/2010 Mid Year Revision 6,190
2010/2011 Mid Year Revision 6,641
2011/2012 Midyear Revision 7,266
Oh Dear, the voters have thrown out the lowest taxing Labor Government on Business in Australia. Obviously West Australian voters don’t quite share the values of the IPA.
State :Tax liability: Ranking
Western Australia:$195,621 :1
Queensland :$197,388 :2
Victoria :$202,421 :3
Tasmania :$210,179 :4
South Australia :$219,067 :5
New South Wales :$222,356 :6
http://www.ipa.org.au/library/publication/1230428978_document_business_bearing_the_burden_-_report.pdf
steve
That’s great news for Rann! There’s actually a state that gets taxed more than SA. Who would have believed it.
In the UK, there seem to be plenty of economists with mitres. The Church really gives it to Brown/ Blair. I suspect you could make the same arguments about any Government; morally corrupt, obsessed with money, sacrifices principles for short-term votes and reneging on promises. I doubt that the Church (or Churches) in Oz would get quite so political. Good on the bishops for having a go.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/religion/3981635/Bishops-deliver-damning-verdict-on-Britain-under-Labour-rule.html
Diogenes, thank God none of those things happen under Conservative Party rule.
Steve
I don’t recall that great friend of the working class, Margaret Thatcher, being pilloried by the Church like that. She must have been as wonderful as our Tory colleagues say.
The Church really has problems politically. Most of their beliefs are left-wing; tolerance, helping the poor, turning the cheek etc. But their organisation is aligned with the right. Think of Pell, the Salvos and Howard.
“Spiritual Alzheimers” is what I have seen the churches’ social conscience described as Diogenes.
I might be wrong but I don’t recall the Church of England being a fan of Thatcher!
With due respect to the churces view the U.K Government has reacted in a proactive manner!
mexicanbeemer
They certainly weren’t fans of Maggie but they didn’t come out as strongly as those comments on Labor. Lots of their criticisms of Labor are fair enough in general but I don’t quite understand what they wanted Labor to do about the GFC. It seems they wanted Labor to lecture the public on spending less, being more responsible and living at a lower standard but that’s what happened in the Great Depression and it didn’t work then.
Australian Cricket RIP, again.
Brett Lee is said to have a hot spot on his foot that could lead to fractured and broken foot. methinks Brett actually has a fractured and broken heart that needs mending.
Hehehehe Richie said ’short arse’ lol!
Time for Haydos to go.
Just after Symonds was dismissed for a quack quack, CH 9 shows a commercial starring Symonds immediately after. That’s the crux of the problem, OZ cricketers are now more of a celebrity than cricketers. Especially with those annoying comm. of the oily chook.
The Russians seem to be a forgiving lot. Stalin was recently voted the third greatest Russian, behind Nevsky and someone called Stolypin. After Stalin came Pushkin, Peter I, Lenin, Dostoevski, Suvorov, Mendeleyev, Ivan the Terrible, Catherine the Great and Alexander. What the hell happened to Tolstoi and Gogol?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7802485.stm
I believe Anna Bligh is right in calling for the government to issue an apology to Haneef. While it was the previous government that mistreated him, by buck passing an apology Rudd is playing the same game as Howard in refusing to say ‘Sorry’ to the Stolen Generations. That was disgraceful. So is this, IMO.
Diogenes -
And Stalin wasn’t even a Russian, but a Georgian!
189 – MayoFeral, I think the big difference there is that the people involved in the stolen generations are no longer with us to apologise. Howard is still alive and kicking and either he or a member of his government still in parliament should have the guts to get up in parliament and apologise.
Why Rudd should do so is beyond me. His government had nothing to do with it and neither did you or I. Howard and his mob owe Haneef an apology big time though.
I just love it when Haneef was asked how long he expects it will take the Govt to apologize. He said the Australian people had to wait 200 years, he’s also happy to wait.
GG 154, I had no intention of making Thornley a hero.
He obviously thought he could buy his way into Parliament, but found to really get to the top a lot of hard work and persistance was required. He obviously was not prepared for the hard slog.
It is a disgrace that he can walk away like this without suffering any personal loss.
I also agree with all Winston said in post 157
MayoFeral
So was Beria. There must have been something awful in the water in Georgia in the late 19th century when those two were born.
The ABC ran a miniversion for Famous Australians. Of course, the results were embarrassing.
1. Olivia Newton John (pop singer, actress)
2. Peter Cundall (gardener, TV presenter)
3. John Farnham (pop singer, entertainer)
4. Bob Brown (conservationist, politician)
5. John Howard (Prime Minister)
6. Fred Hollows (surgeon, social achiever)
7. Gough Whitlam (ex Prime Minister)
8. Sir William Deane (retired judge, ex Governor General)
9. Johnny Warren (soccer player)
10. Tim Costello (minister, social achiever)
Not one would make my list.
Diogenes,
How could they have missed William Bowe?
Gary, the Australian government is responsible for what happened to Haneef. As the enduring identity it is the government that should apologise, especially given that it kept the laws used to persecute him and continues to employ those involved and has indicated no action will be taken against them.
Many people that, to various degrees, administered the ‘Stolen Generations’ policies were still alive during the life of the Howard administration. In some states and territories indigenous children continued to be taken from their parents until the early to mid 1970s, and some continued to be held in institutions until at least 1980, that is in years when Howard himself was a federal MP/senior minister.
At least the A-G should apologise for the actions of the AFP and the DPP. Ministers should be responsible for the agencies they administer.
It does not matter that Ruddock thinks it was nothing to do with him, he was the responsible minister. But of course I forgot, ministerial responsibilty went out the window after Howard’s first term.
Andrew’s was a pawn – the Haneef thingy has Ruddock’s paw prints all over it.
I agree we should apologise to Haneef. In fact, I wonder who in the AG’s department (with a lot of embarrassing past history on the case?) is advising them otherwise? They are up for a bucket of compensation either way – it might actually make Haneef more willing to accept an out of court settlement. after the embarrassment of the failed prosecution itself, we should not assume those dealing with this matter are the sharpest legal tools in the government’s shed.
BTW Pyotr Stolypin was in many ways a tragic figure – he was a modernising reformer at the end of the Tsarist who began Russia’s industrialisation and tried to improve the social conditions that were leading even then to revolution. There is still debate over who ordered his assassination.
There is no need to apologise to Haneef. He is big enough (and ugly enough) to look after himself. If he cannot, Peter Russo will act capably enough for him.
Dio
I just saw your post on the UK Bishop’s statement – amazing! It seems to me incredibly unfair and biased. I would say that Brown is one of the most egalitarian leaders in the western world. As Chancellor he pressed for many of Thatchers harshe reforms to be toned down. He has made sure that the UK bank rescues are buy-outs, not bailouts, thus ensuring that mortgagees and small depositors are protected but the taxpayer winds up owning the bank. Perhaps the real reason for it is Brown’s left wing background and, I suspect, anti-religeous, or at least anti-religeous fundamentalism, views.
Socrates I doubt it, did the arresting officers do anything wrong? No. Was there political interference? No (according to the sham enquiry).
The Judge said the DPP evidence was a crock and released Haneef. So no problem there. He was held under “Terror Laws” all perfectly legal.
Andrew’s revoked his visa – perfectly legal, it is at the Immigration Minister’s discretion.
But I still think an ex-gratia payment and an apology are very neccesary – and a review to make sure it can never happen again.
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