It’s looking a very merry Christmas for pensioners and families and, not unrelatedly, the Rudd government, which has added a further 1 per cent to its already formidable two-party lead in a Christmas eve Morgan face-to-face poll. Curiously, the Greens are down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent in a survey conducted half before and half after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement of December 15. The slack has been taken up by a spike in the Labor primary vote from 48.5 per cent to 52.5 per cent, their best result in almost seven months. The Coalition primary vote is also up slightly, from 34.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent.
Morgan also produced two sets of leadership ratings last week, one comparing Rudd to Turnbull and the other comparing them both with their party colleagues. Rudd’s approval rating was up four points from the previous survey of October 15-16 to 68 per cent, while his lead over Turnbull as preferred prime minister had blown out from 62.5-24 to 69-20. Worringly for Turnbull, his approval rating was down 13 per cent to 42 per cent while his disapproval was up from 24 per cent to 37.5 per cent, a much sharper turnaround than recorded by Newspoll over the same period (from 50-25 to 47-32). The preferred Labor leader results turned up no surprises, but the Liberal ratings interestingly found Turnbull tied with Peter Costello on 28 per cent. This compared with Costello’s lead of 31 per cent to 20 per cent in the previous such survey of September 10-11, when Brendan Nelson was still leader.
391 Comments
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Glen,
Hi, the team has been announced now and it seems we are both patially right. Rogers had the credentials but I think his time has passed. Siddle I think will be rested which will open up the opportunity for both Hilfenhaus and Bollinger. Unfortunately, for Dave Hussey, his brother has his spot atm. Hauritz/Kreja. Hauritz will never get enough wickets to win a game. Test cricket is about getting wickets. Kreja every time for me.
Cheers
Diogenes @ 244 -
At last count the ratio was 300:1 and then it was an Israeli Arab that was killed. So far Bush is backing Israel 110%. With Obama’s full support!
I don’t know the Palestinian figures, but in the 8 years that Hamas has used rockets there have been 21 Israeli fatalities. That’s 21 too many, but pales compared to Palestinian deaths, not only from direct military action but also through hunger, disease and the lack of medicines/medical equipment, power outages, poor/inadequate water and sewage facilities, etc.
The moderator ate my post. Dunno why. Perhaps it was the French champagne name or the food chain. I’ll alter the spelling and leave out the link.
GG must be a selector. Bolinger, Hilfenhaus and MacDonald in. Lee and Symonds out.
Amigo GG, this would be my team:
Hughes,
Katich
Ponting
Clarke
Hussey M
Hussey D
Haddin
Johnson
Alex North
Sidden
Bollinger
12th McDonald
Amigo Vera & GG, it’s time to do a cricket dance, chirpy chirpy chip chip. Like old soldiers, do old cricketers
……….. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fd6zBMZ423g
Diog, i believe Bilbo has installed a new filter where bloggers who are always wRONg got the chop-chop.
finn dont you think kim hughes is a little long in the tooth to return to the test lineup?????
I still think i D. Hussey will get in the team, Macca isnt the batsman that D. Hussey is so unless he gets wickets i doubt he’ll stay for long…anyway who cares about the 3rd test now.
Definitely with you there Centre, as long as they don’t have chest hair.
or armpit hair…
The Israel Dream seems to be:
1.to live in peace and prosperity for ever
2. to hold various bits and pieces of Palestinian lands, including the 1967 borders and beyond
3. to maintain a jewish state, including maintaining a preponderance of jews over other races/faiths in Israel
To achieve this Dream it requires:
4. to displace people (including those who need to be moved in relation to the Israeli Wall, those who have been displaced by settlements, those who were shoved out of Israel before 1967, and, potentially arab Israelis currently living within the 1967 borders)
5. to maintain those displaced people in a quiescent, non-violent, state
The ideal solution is a political solution. In other words the displaced people decide voluntarily to agree to a deal which means that they put up with being displaced. Rocket and mortar fire out of Gaza indicates that this has yet to occur. Negotiations with Abbas means that a quiescent state may be accepted by other Palestinians.
Since Israel has yet to persuade all the people of Palestine to accept the displacements voluntarily, and also to agree to maintaining Palestinians in a voluntary state of displacement, Israel can only use the exercise of its superior power – including the power to restrict goods and services, and free movement, and the use of military force.
In the absence of a political agreement, the Israelis use of force must thoroughly quell those who feel like doing something violent arising from their sense of injustice about being displaced. In other words, they must be so terrified about being deprived of common civil amenities, a functional economy and/or being killed, that they are willing to trade this terror off against their feelings of resentment and anger.
Therefore, to achieve its dream, Israel is forced to wait for Palestinians to overcome their resentment and their sense of injustice. Until then, Israel is virtually forced to maintain Gaza as a sort of open-air jail, and, from time-to-time, to kill people and destroy lots of infrastructure. From an Israeli Dream point of view, Israel does not have a choice. Therefore, the force is not disporportionate. The force is as near as possible proportionate to the Dream.
My question is: Does this set out ‘The Equation?’ fairly from an Israeli point of view?
The good news:
The bad news: With the unnecessarily generous subsidy for coal generators it still might not be competitive here.
I’ve heard that Garrett was the only minister to vote against the ETS in cabinet because it was so inadequate. Pity he didn’t also resign from the ministry and the party. It’s not as if Rudd, Albanese and Ferguson are going to actually let him do anything worthwhile. He’s just the token greenie. So why bother? Surely it can’t be for the money?
Dunno why either, Diogenes @ 253. It just happens sometimes, and unfortunately Poll Bludger is in Summer Edition mode with respect to comment moderation clearance time.
261 – Yep, that’s right Mayo Garrett should stand outside the tent and pee in, that always works and produces the necessary changes doesn’t it? What a silly suggestion.
While googling our William, I found this article where he is wearing his other hat as a “Music Writer”
http://www.youami.net/press_q_and_a.htm
and this about Newspoll during the 2007 federal election
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/psephological-blogger-rhythms/2007/10/27/1192941402713.html
Frank, thank you. A bit of a nostalgia trip! So we are ‘nuts’? Is that all? *grin*
It was all a bit easier in those days… That was then.
Now, Rudd and Obama (a) are humans so will make mistakes and (b) enjoy the exercise of power so will make decisions that are about maintaining power and (c) will have to make compromises to cut deals. In any case the options for both have been severely constrained by what went before…
Inevitably, the gloss wears off. Then will the bludgers be?
This guy seems to be having problems with this freedom of expression thingy.
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/32311_Death_to_All_Juice
Gary Bruce @ 263
Is it? He is minister in name only. Why were the two most important environmental jobs – the Murray-Darling and ETS given to Wong, and not the Environment Minister? Remembering that he was the Shadow Minister for Climate Change. Why was Garrett stopped from fulfilling another pre election promise, tackling the whalers? Remember the comedy of Garrett huffing and puffing about how the Custom boat was going south to gather evidence for a legal challenge only to have it languish in port until it was too late to do anything more than chase shadows for a few days when the whaling season was effectively over? Where is it now that another season is starting? For about an hour recently he was again threatening to take the whalers to court and then promptly shut up. Fortunately, the GFC looks like saving him from having to preside over another environmental disaster, the Gunns mill.
They are just using his street cred to give the appearance of supporting environmental issues while ensuring he is incapable of doing anything of substance as they give 120% support to our worst polluters.
Pissing your pants while inside the tent is even sillier. Not that it matters because I believe he’ll be outside it soon enough. My tip: now that he’s fulfilled his purpose, helping win government, Garrett will be the first casualty when Rudd reshuffles the Cabinet and out the door completely at the following election.
MayoFeral
If Garrett was the only Minister to vote against the White Flag on CC, it’s not a good sign for CC policy in Oz. They must all be CC homunculi, like the Liberal Party. They’ll need to be dragged kicking and screaming to a 15% target at Copenhagen. I bet they go into Copenhagen VERY negative and looking for any excuse to do nothing, which seems to be Penny Wong’s response to everything.
PS I was down in Goolwa and Victor a few days ago. Not too many votes for the Ruddster down there.
Might have been a better choice of words using “maverick”. It seems to be a favourite with grandma.
http://www.palinaspresident.us/never/index.html
Either my sense of humour is inappropriate to this blog or is not seen in the light hearted, harmless way in which it is intended?
Hello everyone on this the final day of 2008!! an Interesting year to say the least!!
I was reading the OO and note that the good for nothing usless Job Network agencies are seeking Government assistance! This is one group that I hope PM Rudd slams the door into their faces! these agencies have had it way too good for too long and are a legacy of the Howard Government’s lazy approach to finding the unemployed jobs, I again repeat what I have said before if you are unemployed you are considerable better off visiting Recruitment agencies!
Diogenes,
PS Victor and Goolwa are part of Mayo. Hardly hard core Labor territory.
If places like Goolwa and Victor Harbour start voting for the ALP then the Liberal Party will struggle to win anything, from my understanding they are very strong Liberal Party booths although I would image the Greens do okay in those communities.
That south east corner of South Australia is very solid for the Liberals, I have not checked the numbers but I would be surprised if there are any ALP booths in that area, maybe in a larger town like Mt Gambler there may be one but I wouldn’t expect to see that.
I’m still happy with Kev and his policy making. This one is overdue I feel.
Sorry I forgot the link
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudd-and-rees-pick-a-pocket-or-two/2008/12/30/1230399211536.html
Diogenes @ 268 -
If Garrett was the only Minister to vote against the White Flag on CC, it’s not a good sign for CC policy in Oz.
According to Paul Sheehan he was.
Garrett has since neutered the only initiative that has had an impact on CO2, the solar PVC rebate. People could buy an entry level 1KW system for around $3,900. Now that they’ve reduced the rebate from $8K to $5K, these will cost $6,900. I doubt this was his idea.
Even in the states that have a feed-in-tariff (Qld, SA, Vic, and soon NSW) at the old price it barely made sense financially, but some people, even pensioners like my Mum (in WA), were prepared to do their bit. Now these will be out of reach of most.
To add insult to injury, under Rudd’s ETS even the environmental incentive has been taken away because the generators will be able to sell the permits for every tonne of CO2 saved to those who will generate the pollution. Mum passed away just weeks before the whitepaper was released. She had been pleased as punch that she was able to do something to help keep the planet bearable for her grandkids so would have been devastated to learn her sacrifice was in vain.
As for the Lower Lakes, the do-gooders mislead by self-interested parties will end up killing the very thing they think they’re saving by insisting on the lakes remaining freshwater. As I’ve repeated pointed out in letters to the local rag which never get published, before the barrages where built he lower system has always relied on an influx of seawater to prevent the soils turning acid. The same is true of the lower Murray, the bed of which is wholly below sea level from about Lock 1 at Blanchetown.
GG and mexicanbeemer
I wasn’t suggesting they would vote Labor ahead of that great candidate Briggs. But very noisy disgruntled voters with TV crews showing boats landlocked and a trickling river might have a wider impact. On the other hand, it’s not like the Libs can point that finger with much conviction, although I’m sure they will give it a try.
Mayo,
That Sheehan article is a pearler.
An unsubstantiated rumour corroborated by a no comment. Investigative journalism at its best!
At least in the old days fairy tales started with “Once upon a time…….”
267 – Mayo, my point stands. You don’t change anything from outside the tent. You have some show inside it even with wet pants on. As for your predictions, we’ll see won’t we?
Ah, Boerwar, someone who actually sees the reality of the situation. So let’s cut this BS about going in like a bull-at-a-gate and occupying the high moral ground in regard to CC shall we? People may hate it but that’s reality in full bloom.
GG @ 277 -
The alternative scenario is that Garrett did vote for the ETS. Seems to me that condemns him even more.
The bile against Garrett is interesting. Again reality has it that he is not a one man band. He is a team player. Whether he voted for or against the ETS is a mute point. The GOVERNMENT voted for it.
Ever wondered why Garrett didn’t join the Greens? Ever wondered why the Greens aren’t the government by now? Maybe the government is more in line with the thinking of the majority of the population than some people here think it is.
Hopefully 2009 will bring less purist hand wringing from ‘I want it all and now’ Labor idealists. And some more strategic, mature long term understanding of politics and achieving of policy goals.
On the balance of things, considering this is the first year of a party out of government for more than a decade, Rudd and his team have done a brilliant job full stop.
Death to all Juice
http://littlegreenfootballs.com/article/32311_Death_to_All_Juice
Stupidity knows no bounds when it comes to racial hatred.
Hopefully 2009 will bring less cringeing, cowering, pathologically risk-averse, process-driven policies aided and abetted by Labor apologists who dress up weak, poll-driven lack of leadership as political and pragmatic genius.
On the balance of things, considering this is the first year of a party out of government for more than a decade, Rudd and his team have really done almost nothing except for a few feel-good, symbolic efforts (which haven’t achieved anything except make Rudd look more human than Howard) and handing out $10B like Santa Claus.
Diog, for your New Year listening. Happy New Year to all.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/history/inourtime/inourtime_20061019.shtml
MayoFeral 268. As I as I can find out the lower lakes would have been barely affected by high salt levels until River Murray flows were substantially reduced by irrigation in the last 120 years or so. Even though on occasions the river might have been reduced to very low or no flows, that does not equate to high salt levels back in the lakes. The ecosystem in the lakes and estuaries of the Finniss etc is essentially fresh with the odd more brackish time. Allowing the system to became as salty as the sea would be a major problem for the ecosystems affected. The alternative now being looked at of blocking off Lake Albert and turning it into an ephemeral wetland for the next year or 2 at least seems like an option worth trying to save Lake Alexandrina and the estuaries.
Diogenes – quite rightly the locals are desperate for governments to do things and are not happy with Rann and Rudd for their low key approach but Libs trying to pretend they have any answers about the lower lakes issues would need a major rewrire of history.
Wakefield
I suspect that Wong etc know that the Lower Lakes are irretrievable barring a Noah’s Ark type flood (and even then the Queenslanders would probably store most of it to create a few more inland Sydney Harbor’s to grow rice and cotton).
The locals are going to have to come around to the idea of opening the barrages and accepting an ecosystem disaster. They’re not ready yet but they will slowly come around I suspect.
Diogenes,
Given your usual whines and snivels, I’ll take your 284 as a thorough endorsement of Rudd and the Labor team. The good news is there will be more fine government in the New Year.
Cheers.
Former WA Premier Brian Burke has been coming out swinging against the CCC.
Here he is on the Perth Edition of A Current Affair.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=07wLbxGKebM
GG
I’m looking forward to more brave, inspired leadership from that great man Rudd and his talented and highly intelligent possie of union lawyers and shop stewards. May he reach for even greater heights of blandness and obsequiousness to corporate interests!
In the New Year, we will have Obama and Hillary to lead the free world against the forces of darkness. A New Age of Enlightenment will dawn on the 20th January and Hope will spring eternal. And Yes!, It’s Change We Can Believe In.
Cheers
Oh dear, the chicago oiliness is catching with Obama again. The race card will be played by both sides to suit their own political purpose. It will not be pretty, which is a pity. As with the recent “Barack Obama The Magic Negro” episode, the respect for Obama as a POTUS could be an elusive commodity from certain sections of the American society.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16952.html
Wakefield @ 286 -
The ecosystem in the lakes and estuaries of the Finniss etc is essentially fresh with the odd more brackish time.
Not so. Despite what you may have heard about a certain book that is being widely promoted throughout the region.
When the first white man to write a record of his travels on the lakes, Charles Sturt rowed across Lake Alexandrina in 1830 he struck seawater early on his first day. To quote from his ‘Two Expeditions into the Interior of Southern Australia During the Years 1828, 1829, 1830, 1831′ (Vol 2, Ch 6):
He doesn’t record the position, but other information suggests it was within 20km WSW of the end of the Murray at where Wellington now is.
He goes on to write:
What he’s describing is a tidal fish trap. He mentions the tidal nature of the lake several times, even records meeting a seal in its centre.
Newspapers in the region record many instances of marine fish species being caught along the river at least as far upstream as Murray Bridge in thge years before the barrages became operational, and sightings of dolphins were also common, especially in the years before 1900, which may be significant because this was the time of the ‘Federation’ drought of 1895-1902. That drought almost finished off the Caffey Brothers irrigation scheme at Mildura. Not so much because of a lack of irrigation water, but because there wasn’t enough water in the river for paddle steamers to transport the produce to markets and it rotted on the wharf. Mildura didn’t begin to recovery until well into the 1920s, just in time for the Great Depression.
1830/31 weren’t drought years, unlike 1838-42 and the Fed drought years. I mention these two because the aforementioned book makes much of the earliest settlers around the lakes supposedly blaming salt water influx into the lakes in those years on irrigators upstream. The fact is that in the early years of settlement in the area there were some very exceptionally wet years accompanied by big floods which probably explains why the lakes were then mostly fresh.
Diogenes,
It is good to have the natural order restored. Nelson demonstrated and you certainly re-inforce that medical doctors know fa about real politics.
As for Obama and Hillary, I just hope that Obama is up to the job. As they say, “He who the Gods wish to destroy, they first make popular”.
GG
Medical doctors have a long, proud and unblemished record of making terrible politicians. There has almost never been a decent one. For some reason, the Middle East often chooses doctors, and we’ve seen how well that turns out. ATM, the most “successful” doctor-politician is Ayman al-Zawahiri, although he doesn’t seem to be without his detractors.
Diog,
I just knew Finn’s “Theory of wRongness” would have sound underpinnings.
Unfortunately, the Communists never got anything to run on time. However, here is their Christmas Greeting to all.
http://www.rathergood.com/christmas
Unemployment looks like being the big political battleground for next year. Each rise in unemployment rate will be watched like interest rates used to be. Julia is sticking with the official projection of 5.75% by the end of 2009. Julie is unhappy.
Looks like 1 million is the target Rudd wants to stay under politically. One million unemployed would sound bad in an ad campaign. Of course, Bishop doesn’t have any answers herself but you can’t blame her for trying
Julia Gillard’s grim jobs warning for 2009
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24859825-5006301,00.html
A known regular caller (Liberal supporter) rang 3AW today to criticise Rudd for spending the surplus. The announcer had been dealing with the issue of rising unemployment and immediately asked the caller, “So you don’t think any of the surplus should be spent on saving jobs?” The caller ummed and ahhed and ended up saying “Well, that a difficult question isn’t it?” So no real answer. Therein lies the difficulty for the Libs.
I’m still not convinced Labor will be blamed for a rise in unemployment, a million or not. As long as Rudd is seen as doing everything possible he’ll be OK.
What will also look good in ads is the higher unemployment figures around the world. By comparison Australia will seem like employment central.
This article talks about a 30% increase in comparable economies (US, UK and Canada) in their unemployment level in 2009. If we’re 4.3% now, a 30% increase reaches 5.7%. It’s hard to imagine our GDP dropping as much as the predictions for those three so unemployment should go up by less than 30%. That would put us way under Bishops 8%/ one million unemployed scenario.
Of course, someone who actually knows what they are talking about could correct me but I thought I’d have a whirl at it.
‘09 GDP growth (%) Jobless increase
U.K. -1.9 600,000
U.S. -2.3 4.1 mill
Canada -1.3 270,000
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/12/29/uk-jobless-annual.html
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