Light holiday reading:
• “Carlton’s lone classical liberal”, Andrew Norton, weighs in on Liberal hyperbole over third party political campaigns. New Mayo MP Jamie Briggs reckons these to be a “cancer in our democracy” due to the efforts of GetUp! and the ACTU at the last election. Briggs argues that “Australians are entitled to know who is behind the campaigns, how much is being spent and where the money is coming from”, evidently having failed to notice that such groups are indeed required to provide annual disclosure of receipts, expenditure and debts. However, in an interesting discussion at Larvatus Prodeo, Norton also argues that lowering the donation disclosure threshold from $10,000 to $1000 (as proposed by a bill currently before a Senate committee due to report on June 30) could theoretically catch independent political blogs in a “massive compliance net” thanks to a loose definition of “persons or organisations expressing views by any means on candidates or election issues”. Elsewhere, The Australian’s Janet Albrechtsen tugs at the heart strings by complaining the disclosure amendments are designed to cut donations to the Liberal Party (from which you can readily infer why the Howard government used its Senate majority to jack the threshold up from $1500 to $10,000 in the first place). More substantially, she argues that “the nature of third-party campaigns in Australia is such that if we ban or cap donations (except by individuals) and allow third-party campaigns by unions to continue unabated, the political field is skewed against one side: the conservatives” – particularly in light of government plans to scrap tax deductibility of party donations while maintaining it for union dues and levies.
• “Dotcom millionaire” Evan Thornley has made himself popular in Labor circles by pulling the plug on his political career on the eve of his anticipated promotion to the Victorian state cabinet. The talk around Thornley was that he viewed his state political career as a stepping stone to federal politics via Simon Crean’s seat of Hotham, beyond which his ambitions were apparently without limit. His entirely unheralded decision to “pursue opportunities outside of political life” has inevitably fuelled all manner of speculation, most of it involving his financial wellbeing. It has also created a vacancy for his upper house seat for the Southern Metropolitan region. The Age reports that the new upper house system instituted at the last election “has created an anomaly for Labor, as party rules do not specify how preselection for an upper house vacancy should be conducted”:
Party sources said the anomoly was expected to be tackled by rule makers in May 2009 before preselections began in earnest for the 2010 election. But Mr Thornley’s shock departure – which sources from both major factions of Victorian Labor described as the most bizarre incident they had ever witnessed in politics – could force the anomaly to be dealt with sooner. While some within Labor believe the rules offer no guidance over preselection, others say the spirit of preselection processes in the lower house should also be adopted for the upper house. Under that scenario, Mr Thornley’s replacement in the Southern Metropolitan electorate would be decided 50:50 by a ballot of ALP branch members and a central selection panel. Many expect Labor’s national executive to ultimately choose his replacement but all agreed it was too early to speculate on the names of likely candidates.
A commenter at Andrew Landeryou’s VexNews writes:
The Left were promised Thornley’s spot but they agreed not to insist as Thornley was then non aligned. Thornley then joined Labor Unity. They left will claim they are entitled to fill Thornley’s vacancy. Labor Unity will most likely want it and there will be an internal facional brawl like Kororoit. Then Mr Dearricott’s non-aligned group will claim their right to the vacancy. A strong tip tonight is that (former Brimbank mayor) Natalie Suleyman is a favourite for the position.
Another hopeful is said to be Dick Gross, former Municipal Association of Victoria president and Port Phillip councillor defeated in recent elections in a “resident revolt over his support for the St Kilda triangle development”. There is also the question of the political future of Theo Theophanous, charged on Christmas Eve with rape. An end to Theophanous’s political career would create another upper house vacancy in Northern Metropolitan. In lieu of Evan Thornley, Theophanous’s position as Industry and Trade Minister has been filled by Martin Pakula, previously best known for his failed preselection bid against Simon Crean in Hotham ahead of the last federal election.
• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports that the Victorian Liberals are “set to reluctantly give the Nationals the number two spot on a joint Senate ticket for the 2010 election”. This would continue an agreement initiated after the 1987 double dissolution election giving the Nationals the unwinnable fourth and safe second seats at alternating elections. The party’s seat in the Senate has been held since 1993 by Julian McGauran, who quit the party for the Liberals in January 2006. One possible explanation for the move was that he did not expect the Liberals would continue with the existing joint ticket arrangement, which as Grattan explains is widely opposed within the party. It had long been thought that the Nationals had been able to negotiate the joint ticket partly because the McGauran family helped delivered it preferences from the Democratic Labor Party, whom they had assisted in legal action to prevent its deregistration. The Nationals’ apparent success in keeping the arrangement going might suggest otherwise. However, another possibility is that McGauran thought his prospects of winning Liberal preselection less unlikely than those of keeping his place with the Nationals. McGauran had an uncomfortably narrow preselection win ahead of the 2004 election over Darren Chester, now the member for Gippsland, and his family’s clout might have been further weakened since by brother Peter’s departure from politics.
• Labor’s Mark Dreyfus, chairman of the House of Representatives Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee, says he hopes the government will “soon” announce a non-binding plebiscite to test opinion on a republic before the federal election.
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian has an interesting overview of the new entrants to the WA state parliament.
UPDATE (3/1/09): Malcolm Mackerras reviews the Queensland state redistribution and offers his prediction for the election to be held some time this year, namely an 11 seat Labor majority from an even split on two-party preferred.
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Speaking about Blair.
Wasn’t he appointed as some sort of mediator to sort out the Palestinian/Israeli problems.
He doesn’t appear to be too effective so far.
maybe they could get Downer from the Cyprus/Turkey negotiations- because he is a real gun
John Howard is in good company with his new award.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24878783-5013871,00.html
What’s amusing about this Gaza harangue (from both sides) is that there is no right and no wrong, only sides to take.
I’m sure any of us would condemn Israel if we saw the bodies of little children being pulled out of a ruined house. It’s not their fault that their fathers or uncles use them as human shields.
On the other hand, if we were forced to live out lives in bunkers, sheltering from rockets, as (apparently) many Israelis near Gaza have been forced to do, we would be equally condemnatory of Hamas. This feeling would be easier to hold if we also kept in mind what happens to Jews who don’t fight back.
So we have two mad lots, each hating the other, each carefully selecting its definition of “atrocity” to suit its purposes. The rulers of each side are being pushed by radicals further down the ranks, mostly young men full of testosterone and (shamefully) old men full of perverted history and a habit of hate.
Each side has legitimate concerns and legitimate grievances. What neither side has is good will. Until that appears on the scene the fighting and the killing and the endless, useless and pointless argument will go on – both there in the Middle East and here at PB. The argument or the war will never be won until good will takes root. After several hundred years of conflict that doesn’t seem to be likely to happen any time soon.
In either case the opinionation, masked as thoughtful argument, or interpretation of history is – especially here – a waste of bandwidth. As are the calls from the likes of Glen (and maybe others too, I haven’t had the stomach to read all the comments) to solve the problem by killing everyone who doesn’t agree with the side he supports. That call can be applied to the other side too, of course, and eventually probably will be.
I agree with Bob1234: the “Gaza” slanging match over several hundred posts above is a waste of time and a complete turnoff.
+1 to that. It ain’t much fun to read.
Dovif, the Encyopledia Britannica declares a blockade to be an act of war as does every other definition I’ve found so far. Even if you don’t consider it to be, you neglect to respond to the airstrikes and shelling perpetrated by the Israeli’s.
I am not talking about some obscure “Muslim” or “Jewish” right to the land dating back thousands of years. I’m talking about the people living in the country who were forcibly dispossessed of their land and relocated. Your logic that because the Jews lived their 2000 years ago that they had the right to do that is the same as saying that we should all be herded into one part of Australia and allow the Indigenous people to live unfettered in our homes.
Bushfire Bill, part of what you say is correct regarding “choosing sides” but even before getting to that stage you have to absorb the facts. A lot of what is going on here is a simple neglecting of the truth or ridiculous double standards used to back up pre-existing beliefs. Eg. Two rockets were launched from Palestine, no injuries recorded, Hamas are terrorists and we have to wipe them out even if that means causing immense civilian casualties, destroying local infrastructure and ensuring an entire generation of Palestinians hate Israel. Israel kills hundreds of civilians in a number of airstrikes and shelling attacks and kidnaps members of parliament and they’re simply defending themselves.
As I asked earlier, what’s the difference between an Israeli aistrike on a mosque, killing a dozen civilians and a militant rocket attack into Israel? Is it simply the fact that Israel says it’s aiming for militants?
The Presidential Medal of Freedom was also awarded to Dick Cheney in 91. And if not for the conventions of this award, Bush would be gonging his puppet master a second time for “freedom-loving work in the areas of water-boarding and extraordinary rendition”.
How apt that Howard and Blair will share the PMF with a war criminal. (And that it will be presented to them by a war criminal.)
Oz
Spot on there at @356
To the naysayers and ostriches out there, I quick reality check is in order
1.Aint we a democracy -we should therefore defend All peoples rights to a fair go, both here and Overseas
2. israel is the bastard child of the West,yet no criticism is allowed when outright massacrse as we are seeing happen
3.As I said during howies reign- “evil happens when good men do nothing”
4.Where howie had an amorphous threat “boat people” that he could,and did, use as effective electoral boogyman-the Israelis castigate and villify the Palestinians Before EVERY election they have ever held.Chew on that litlle morsel and see if the bile dont start to rise.
5.Our voiices should not be stifled,or our concerns muted just because it is Israel,they should be evn louder and more condemning BECAUSE it’s Israel
354 – +2 to that BB. It ain’t much fun to read at all.
Ohhh
“To the naysayers and ostriches out there”
and of course the closet Howardista’s and their “I’m all right jack” attitude
Oh dear, Quadrant editor Keith Windschuttle, has been caught out by a hoax.
The report, which includes several large chunks of quoted material from Windschuttle, appears in today’s Australian, a journal responsible for its own tawdry hoax in July 2006. (A chapter of Patrick White’s The Eye of the Storm was sent under a bogus name to various leftist publishers with the predictable result that it was not accepted by any of them.)
#358, Gus, i did ask “what is so special about Israel?”. i am still waiting for an answer.
Good old Mesmerelda is at it again
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,24879694-5017005,00.html
Re ‘that’ peace medal. Nelson Mandella has also received one, a man who personally sacrificed so much.
Mandella also spoke out against the invasion of Iraq.
Briefly
Once in a while you get a politician who is also a leader. That is, someone who bites the bullet, sticks his neck out, and leads the electorate rather than being led by the nose by focus groups and the Textors of this world.
Yes, we live in a democracy, however imperfect, for which I am very grateful. However, (and I know this is difficult for people to understand after 12 years of the HowRuddian Convergence) even democracies are susceptible to leadership. On CC Response policy, the HowRudd Convergence has not shown the quality of leadership.
Unlike the dopey bastards who wanted to start a campaign of civil disobedience, I will live with democratic outcomes. Similarly, I will use the benefits of democracy to post actively against policies, which, shorn of their party-political ‘commonsense’, are, quite simply, irrational.
In terms of your term ’super emitters’ – Australians are per capita super emitters.
As for my expectations of the rest of the world? If there is some outstanding leadership rising to abnormal times, something effective will be established. If a bunch of nationalism-blinkered master politicians muddle through, as per normal times, we will get a half-baked ‘balanced’ and ‘practical’ solution that will not make much real difference. Unfortunately, the HowRudd Convergence contribution to global CC Response policy development has been one big wet blanket. Its a FAIL.
If that is the case, no, I don’t want a 5% ETS. There are two reasons. The first is that it will help fool Australians into thinking that something substantial is being done and that Australia is somehow off the CC responsibility hook. The second is the opportunity cost. I would much rather spend the funds required to set up and run a 5% ETS on something sensible like CC damage amelioration for the poor bastards who are now losing their livelihoods in the Murray Darling Basin.
363 Frank, how do we know that Mesmeralda is not just plagiarizing today’s ‘New York Times’.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/06/business/06auto.html?_r=1&ref=business
Steve @ 366
Thank you for the link.
If Julie Bishop had the capacity to do some original thinking she would question just exactly how the debt-laden consumption of private cars is such a good idea for Australia.
Unfortunately, like the rather poor quality party political person that she is, she has simply stayed in the bubble, stayed with the program, and chanted the mantra.
Another poll on the February Israel election…
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/129244
The article mentions the creation of a new party called the National Union party, although I infer from the story that the new party has been created by merging existing parties, including one called the Jewish National Front, so I presume it is what would generally be called a far right wing party, and would be expected to back a Likud government.
I also read today that an election is due in Lebanon in May.
Boerwar, perhaps nobody has explained to her yet that one of the features of the GFC is that finance is very difficult for businesses to obtain in every part of the world. No good bleating about rates in Australia when the whole system has seized up on a global basis.
Julie Bishop is a wonder isn’t she. She was on the national news again last night giving the banks advice on what they need to do for their customers. I am surprised it was considered newsworthy, then again the Channel 7 news in Brisbane tonight spent what seemed like about 3 minutes (out of about 20 minutes of actual news time) on the Logans are not Bogans campaign.
I think my favourite Julie Bishop activity, was her advice to Julia Gillard in August 2007 to stop acting like a fashion model… http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22227525-2761,00.html
I reckon another six months until she is dumped.
Fargo, what’s your take on Springborg’s brain explosion today? Telling Brough to find a Labor seat to run in (while not game to say leave Glasshouse alone) but Springborg sitting in the safe National seat of Southern Downs will surely make the February sittings of parliament in Queensland interesting. Labor will dice Springborg over this.
I think the Lebanese election was announced today to be in June.
Fargo61,
Great link. I loved this part.
I think it worked extremely well, especially going on the last polling figures which showed that JG was extremely popular with women voters and she did quite well with men in the sexiest Australian women category.
I wonder too, if they still think she is a week link?
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22227525-2761,00.html
Boerwar
Posted Tuesday, January 6, 2009 at 7:09 pm | Permalink
Briefly….Once in a while…
Well, bw, I suppose I expect a lot less than you. I will be pleased if even a skeletal ETS gets into law. It will be better than nothing in my book. You have to start somewhere. For sure, many things will have to be tried and tested and pushed and poked to try to come to terms with dangerous climate change. The ETS is most unlikely to be a silver bullet, but it is one thing that kind of makes sense and is scaleable. If Rudd can get it through the Senate, and negotiate to a more ambitous outcome at Copenhagen, then more power to him. If he goes to Copenhagen empty-handed – defeated by a Liberal/Green alliance in the Senate – then the game will be just that much more difficult.
For what it is worth, think about a few things that the International Community could have fixed, but have dismally failed to do: remove barriers to agricultural trade (good for poor farmers in agrarian economies as well as workers in urban ones); abolish whaling (good for everyone, including the Japanese Govt Budget); agree on and enforce sensible capital rules in the global banking system (whoops, too late!).
You seem to think that fixing CC is easy. This is mistaken. The easy thing is to not fix it. At least Rudd is willing to define CC as a problem that can be and must be dealt with. Trouble is, fixing CC is going to be very very difficult – more difficult than anything our species has ever attempted or is ever likely to attempt. We are just taking the first tentative steps towards this and there is much much more likelihood that we will fail than succeed. Condeming Rudd for trying is like conceding defeat before we have really begun.
Steve why would Brough want a go in State politics it would be a waste of his talents the only way i see him getting back into politics is through a Federal Seat…
State politics is really useless…
Glen, that’s not quite what you were arguing after the West Australian election result and we both know that Brough is unelectable Federally. As an Indepentent conservative in Glasshouse, he would have a job for yearsand without having to run around as a dud Minister unable to extract cash from the Treasurer as he was want to do as Minister for Disability Services.
re: howie and blair getting the FREEDOM medal. Doesnt it display everything that was wrong about GWB’s presidency?? A complete inability to be reflective or admit mistakes. How have their actions promoted freedom and democracy again??
Steve, (#371)
I really have no idea about what might have brought that one on. I presume some internal dispute is going on, but that is only a guess. What Mr Springborg thought he would achieve is beyond me.
Mr Springborg also had a slot on the news tonight. It was on channel 7 I think, but I can not find it mentioned on either the 7 or 9 sites. Anyway, they started off by introducing the segment by saying something like Laurence Springborg has returned to work while Anna Bligh is still on holidays… you can be sure that that is the style of reporting that the Courier Mail will also be using all year, and indeed used for nearly all last year.
They also said something about policies (I thought – which is why I wanted to see a video of the segment) although no actual policies were mentioned that I noticed.
It was basically a photo shoot opportunity in a motor bike shop for Mr Springborg and two of his LNP candidates, who were asked when they thought the election would be called.
One seemed to say that he thought sooner rather then later, but that it could be later, but they would be ready if it was sooner, and the other one said that she didn’t know, but would find out later from the interviewer. Mr Springborg was also asked where his Borg Bus was, and said he didn’t know where it is (was) today.
They may as well have spent more time on the Logans are not Bogans campaign.
I still think that the LNP, the Liberal Party, and the National Party, may be currently improperly registered in QLD, and as I am on leave this week, I have decided to bestir myself tomorrow and contact the ECQ about it.
FINNS
#362
Our voiices should not be stifled,or our concerns muted just because it is Israel
“#358, Gus, i did ask “what is so special about Israel?”. i am still waiting for an answer.”
What is so special about Israel is it is able bomb innocent civilians (with or with out provocation) living in other Countrys/teriritories Lebanon or Gaza for weeks on end without any UN sanction or any World sanction whatsoever nor hav to worry about complying with UN resulution……and on whatever pretext it chooses with th tacit suport of th most powerful military power on earth th USA Thats pretty special to be able to do that for 30 or so years
Its even more special to be able to do so with th Western press generaly “spinning” that israeli’s laser directed one ton bombs that kill masses of civilians were reely aimed at “terrorists” and just don’t dwell on those masses of slain civilians …..whereas any retaliation from those peoples invaded by and still occupied by Israel ar reely th “terrorists”
But th most remarkible special thing about Israel is on that one hand propertionate deaths run at say 100 Palestiniens dead for each single Israeli , but “somehow” somehow whiilst Israel has ilegaly actualy “occupoied” non Israeli land for 42 years …that “somehow” it reely is not “occupying” Sort of th rope de dope trick , you see an occupier but you ar told not to see th occupier & believe there is none
th “why” is a disgraceful indictment on th power of 2 organizations that ‘run’ US politcal Agenda’s …domesticaly th National Riflemans Associaton , and in FA (ie IsRael) th all powerful US j.e.w.ish lobby…and far more powerful than any other World country on deciding US policy Maybe th “why” came to politcans from th religous groups via historical bible books and WW2 ‘owed’ , and Palestiniens as occupyee wonder why Israel so special & there is silense , except those shells raining to them
Amigo Ronnie, Israel is “special” because of the Western powers’ guilt over the Holocaust or more to the point, their guilt over their failure to do more to prevent the Holocaust. It is succinctly told in the Salon’s article below.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/kamiya/2009/01/06/gaza_war/print.html
Amigo FINNS
#380
you asked “why” Israel so special….and I saws th “why” but could not resist exploring th “how” ….”how Israel is so special”… “how Israel is even more special” …”how Israel is so most remarkible special” favourably treated vs other Countrys on this earth
Contradictions within cointradictions of how obviously Israel is so special treated compared to all other nations in its unproportionate military use and illegal occupying capaciy ….and yet th “why” leads to that clarity post of yours…..and yet surely many in World will still shake there heads and wonder but I’ve read th “why” , but still ‘why” why th injustice , perhaps they did not reely believe read what they read in th why
Not all jews are supporting the current action in Gaza.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24879206-2702,00.html
An American view in Salon….obviously has reading my posts and just copy pasted key points , but in worse lingos :
SNIP: 1600 word republication of copyrighted article deleted. Read it here – The Management.
Its actualy th last 1/3 of th article ion page 2 thats relevant….th writer approachs th subject from 2 other angels in first 2/3 of article
Key para from Americon view was:
“Hamas is not the problem; it is a symptom. Treating it as the problem only prolongs the crisis. The problem is political and historical: the dispossession of Palestinians and the ongoing Israeli occupation of their land. Until that fundamental problem is resolved — and the hour when it can be resolved by a two-state solution may already have passed — Israel and America’s attempts to bludgeon Palestinians, Arabs and Muslims into submission will only generate more hatred, more violence and ever more extremism.”
Point being made was 60 years of “pretending” Israel was created by dispossessing its arab inhabitants , then crowding them into efectively th West Bank and Gazza , but still occupying them despite UN resolutions to withdraw will never crush th resistanse , and ner in reality can do so
Having as rsult created th PLO , then tried to undermine it by creating Hamas , Israel now seeks to undermine Hamas and likely may be replaced with even more zealotary jihardists , and th never ending cycle will continue with th risk that modern technologigy is bringing more potable weapons of destructon suggesting th continued non compliace to withdraw from non Israeli lands per resultion 242 not only is illegal and immoral to th Palestiniens , but in end may threatan survival of th Israel itself by creating more world wide Arab hatred & more damaging weapons to be used isreali’s and th US path leads only to a dead end…ultimately
Boerwar
From th hour of Rudds 5% ETS annousement , there was an initial overwhelming anti Rudd sentiment here which has dwindled as reality of what can be passed in Senate is understood , and th understanding th implications of either a likely lost DD in a GFC climate with a KLib scare campaign added , or oz left by th world all by itself with a high CC target at oureconamic cost whilst th world has endless talk feasts of no reel decsion
It seems you want australia to risk sailing alone on th high seas of total uncompetitivweness with our major trading partners , with resultant high unemployemnt , low growth & oz financial collapses , whislt others potentialy polute away without a CC target , but we’ve made a “stand” and feel good at th little big horn in living standards defeats
Lets assume Rudd annoused a 20% CC target , somehow got th needed BOTH Fielding/Mr X to agree (1000 to one odds there) , but lets ccept he gets that 20% CC target Senate apporved , but Coppenhaggen ends with no agreeemnt , indeed meetings in 2010 & 2011 still don’t get a international CC target agreemetn and US and China and India and Russia still hav no targets ….do we still then keep that oz CC 20% target , digging our peoples living standards graves but feeling we’ve made a stand….like its not something you shoot th bullet publicly and 2 years later withdraw th whole target %
.
.
its not th principal thats th problam , but th practical application in a reel world trading environment , and th problam is th USA first , its th world Leader where Leadership needs to come from …..then th other econamic power blocks then need to be ‘encouraged’ or bartared into a Kyoto agreemetn
BTW What constitutes a rogue state these days.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/un-refugee-schools-hit-by-israel/2009/01/06/1231004019273.html
“BTW What constitutes a rogue state these days.”
Speaking on Israeli Army Radio yesterday, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gabriela Shalev, hinted that the Government would consider NOT complying with UN DIRECTIVES if it ordered an end to military activity.
“We are relying on our friends the US and others so that we do not reach the point of a resolution that we will have to reject,” she said.
Well i reckon a State that is happy to ignore th UN …AGAIN makes a rogue State
Then again since Gaza War , 580 dead Palestiniens vs 5 dead Israelis…with th Israeli’s ilegaly attacking a non Israeli land makes a rogue State
But th lasar target bombing of children by Israel I feel borders on barbarism , nd yet there ar those that suport this ‘invasion” which ” is to ‘protect” Israel
NOW read reaction against a statemetn by 100 australian jews condemning th Gazza invasion by Australia’s Jewsih council
“The statement (by th 100 australian Jews) was rejected by the Australia/Israel and Jewish Affairs Council as ill-informed and indifferent to Israel’s suffering.”
Indiferent to israels suffering” ? , after reading #387
Regarding Gaza, I agree with BB’s well written piece at 354 – both sides are in the wrong.
Regarding economic prospects in 2009, I just read one of the most pessimistic pieces I have seen by Krugman:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/opinion/05krugman.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
It is rather grimly titled “Fighting Off Depression”. There must be some awefuly bad not yet published data to come out in the US for him to be writing like this. Previously I have been optimistic that australia could stay out of recession and the rest of the world only enter one briefly, with teh US in a longer recession. But if the US is this bad, then all bets are off. as in some previous posts, I can only wonder what information financial firms and government agencies are not releasing, because on the face of publicly released data it should not be this bad. Yet clearly many people “in the know” are expecting it to be very bad. On teh plus side, I still think Oz is in as good a shape as any to get through this, provided the govenment commits to projects that generate genuine new jobs, and not just a few tax cuts that the panic stricken will only use to pay off their debts. The family/carer bonus was well targetted though.
Sorry Socrates , can not agree Bushfire bill misfired big time
BB #354 “What’s amusing about this Gaza harangue (from both sides) is that there is no right and no wrong, only sides to take.
“I’m sure any of us would condemn Israel if we saw the bodies of little children being pulled out of a ruined house. It’s not their fault that their fathers or uncles use them as human shields.
On the OTHER hand, if we were forced to live out lives in bunkers, sheltering from rockets, as (apparently) many Israelis near Gaza have been forced to do, we would be equally condemnatory of Hamas. This feeling would be easier to hold if we also kept in mind what happens to Jews who don’t fight back.”
This was a one sided pro israeli lot of nonsense
To attempt to sweep away th lasar targetting of Palestinien children by Israel under some unsubstantiated Israeoli Media ’spin” that all these dead Palestinien kids ar used as human shields” is th sort of apologetic excuse trotted out by an illegal and immoral invasion on another territory
This invasion started as a response to one israeli death …so far 5 hav Israeli’s hav died vs 580 Palestiniensd Gazza isth 16th most denseley populated city on earth and dropping one ton bombs guarantees high innoicent civilian deaths…and has So Bushfire Bill’s assertions ar not suported by th statistics
Furthermore , th invasion is in breach of th UN , Israel has no right to unlateraly invade non Israeli land and is in breach of 242 as well Again bushfire Bill’s post lacks UN substanse
As for th minescule number of Israeli’s killed by Hamas rockots cmpared to isralie unproportionate response , this conflict at its hart is th illegal (for 42 years) Israeli occupation of th West Bank and Gazza It is an occupier and resistanse via Palestinien rockets or otherwise is exactly what one wuld expect from any peoples who ar occupied , and precisely what will continue to occur whilstever Israel is in occupation Again BushFire bill completely misundestands who is th invador…and presents a distorted post as if BOTH ar each invading th others land One (Israel) occupies , and th other (Palestiniens) resists as is natural
And then ends a one sided and unsubstatniated post with ‘whole subject i a turn off’ …well whty write his long post then
These funfamental issues continue to get derailed by non big picture issue….th Palestiniens were lead by Arafat , not th most saleable of Leaders for a cause , and with a ‘history’ (yet people forget Israeli PM’s and cabinet ministers eg Sharon Begin also with a history incl Hagganog , but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed…th method of Palestineien resistanse to Israeli occupation and brutality via for example th brutual suicide bombers which was never likely to get Western suport but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed….th biased non even handed US FA approach to Israel/Palestinien dispute implying always th Palestiniens were wrong but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed , but US policy implied that….Western Media has always followed th US uneven handed approach giving impression th Palestiniens were simply terorists without any just cause at all , but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed….th nature of th original Israeli State creation by dispossing existing inhabiants has created hatred & magnified by many wars with 1967 & 1974 Arab wrongs but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed , …and th Western and especialy US “guilt over WW2 which automaticaly transcends sympathy for Israel even 60 years later but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed …th non propertionate Israeli brutality re th Intafada (resistanse to ilegal Israli occupation) that was ‘presented’ as Palestinien wrongdoing but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed…th fact th Palestiniens ar Arab , muslim , dress diferently and does not look favourable to th well suited ‘Christian” israeli politcans in comarison but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed….and numerous other small and major errors and loss of lives on both sides but that does NOT mean th Palestinien cause for Israeli withdrawal under 242 was flawed
th Gaza invasion itself is unproportionate , illegal and immoral …and it is plainly cause and efect Palestinien Rockets ar fired to forse Israelis to leave Arab lands th World says is not there property Those rockets will for ever be sent whilst Israel rmains an occupier of thoser lands
Israel’s latestt statement tonite it may defy a UN cease fire resulution and itsd savage bombing killing children and innocent civilians shows a Country that has lost reality of fairness and rule of international law (knowing US militarily suports them via US j.e.wish lobby) )Since 1967 this Israeli occupation has been th root of th problam requiring both Israeli withdrawal fullstop…and concurent Israeli security backed phsicaly by US deterrance, and believe th other matters flow from this
Ron
Upon second thought, and reading your post, I see I have erred. I (mostly) agree with you instead.
I did not read all of BB’s post, and missed the bit where he said both sides had legitimate grievances. I would agree that both sides are claiming grievances that are not legitimate (except that it is now legitimate for the residents of Gaza to complain about Israel’s disproportionate resposne). The only thing I would quibble with you on is that the rocket attacks on Israel are still wrong, however much smaller they may be. Five civilian dead is still five murders (by Hamas), just as the hundreds of Gaza civilian dead have also been murdered (by the IDF). I never at any stage meant to condone the disproportionate use of force by Israel.
Ron @ 385
No I am not a unilateralist at all. I though that Australia should have put 20% on the table of the international negotations. It opted for a band 5-15% with a promise of a 5% unilateral ETS, come what may.
The latter would make no sense at all. Assuming the rest of the world does nought, 5% Australian equals about .0005% of the global emissions. Statistical noise. Why bother? It would be far more sensible to get into ameliortion instead.
In adopting this approach, Rudd has pretty well converged on Howard (aim for re-election above all else and aim for ‘balance’ and ‘practical’. But, above all, don’t do anything that will upset the horses). Hence the HowRudd Convergence. In abnormal times we need better than the traditional horse trader master politician. We need a leader. We haven’t had one for 12 years now.
So Howard, who helped start two wars and helped finish neither, gets a Peace Medal?
Howard has made only one useful contribution to peace in his entire career – losing his seat in the last election.
“Regarding economic prospects in 2009, I just read one of the most pessimistic pieces I have seen by Krugman:”
I’ll post then read what he says
However intro indicates he’s coming towards my cautous thoughts I’ve suggested for a while there is now a prime not sub prime problam , loss of critical confidense , squeeze on credit , non faith between key banking institutions , monstrous current and trading deficits espec US , 10 trillion debt plus Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac 5.1 billion , probable private equity sector hole , , commoditys ar dropping , China has conflkicting growth reports , can China keep suporting US securities and at what reward , and how strong can dollar hold some EU banks probalms may be delayed virus similar to US ones , timing delays with stimuli’s , querys over future Russian pricing of gas & oil for EU , UK banking isd almost nationalised & now stretched , Us manufacturing sector old tired & obsolete & uncompetitive & reliant almost now on that trillion Keynes bit , M/E blowup hititng oil prices in a GFC a disater , and numerous capital raisings and I wonder what they can see in there Balanse Sheets thet we can not see (yet) Expect an oz technical recession and budget deficit (th latter not a problam) although our Trade deficit debt of 600 billion seems to get zero coverage don’t know why
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac 5.1 TRILLION not billion (all off balnse sheet at moment0 plus 3.3 trillion tax cuts promised (an issue even if delayed)
Agreed again Ron. The real crunch for the US is their huge debt. It is what will stop them quickly recovering. As for foreign credit, its not a question of whether the Chinese can loan to them (they can – China has huge cash reserves) but whether they are still willing to do so.
The real question mark is what debts/losses all the hedge funds have (like Madoffs scheme) which are not regularlay reported like banks and public companies. We still don’t know their positions.
Briefly @ 374
I don’t think fixing CC is easy. I think it is diabolically difficult. However, I do think fixing it would be far, far easier than suffering CC damage.
‘Easy’ is what the master politicians do all the time. If it was easy, the HowRudd Convergence (and their peers elsewhere) would have fixed it.
Yes, I am pessimistic that the national and global systems that created the CC problem will be able fix it. Logically, it is a very unlikely outcome. It would need leaders of global stature in international negotiations to actually lead. When I look at China, India, Russia, the US and the EU I am not filled with a lot of hope. When I look at what very wealthy countries like Australia are willing to put on the table under the HowRuddian Convergence, my pessimism only grows.
Australia under HowRudd had a small opportunity to show some leadership (both Kyoto and post-Kyoto). I mean small. The HowRuddian Convergence has for 12 years chosen not to show any leadership.
If the global negotiations fail it would be well past time to start working on amelioration. By failure, I mean the sort stuff that the EU has put on the table and a 5% unilateral ETS. I am not interested in that sort of smoke and mirrors. If that is all we have, the world will have opted for more Climate Change.
We should then start investing in alternative economic development to address the partial loss of irrigation industries in the Murray Darling Basin and losses to the tourism industry on the Great Barrier Reef. The lead time for the MDB has practically been frittered away by Howard in the past 12 years. So, the CC amelioration in the MDB is being done on the run. Not pretty. Let’s hope we get back even to the 80% of long term average rainfall that CSIRO seems to think we might be getting between now and 2030. However, we still have some useful lead time to put appropriate amelioration programs into place for the population centres along the Great Barrier Reef. In the circumstances, drilling for oil would have a certain symmetry to it. If the Reef is buggered an oil spill or two won’t matter all that much, anyway.
By plumping for a unilateral 5% ETS, Rudd has master-politicianed the situation extremely well. But, if global negotiations fail, a 5% ETS would not be a start, it would be a wasteful distraction up a blind alley.
Amelioration will be the go.
Boewar
“Ron @ 385
No I am not a unilateralist at all. I though that Australia should have put 20% on the table of the international negotations. It opted for a band 5-15% with a promise of a 5% unilateral ETS, come what may.
The latter would make no sense at all. Assuming the rest of the world does nought, 5% Australian equals about .0005% of the global emissions….”
Not sure what your unilateralist position wuld be if no international agreement
however to lay where I stand perhaps I could present this as 3 Australian poker hands in one Boerwar
firstly Rudd could hav chosen to make no target annousement & say i’ll wait on Coppenhaggen & abide by that , but push for as high a % target as posible
Rudd didn’t Firstley nothing over 5% was going to get Senate approval and rudd (a technocrat outcomes politcan DID want that very dificult to legislate ETS actualy passaed So a 5% target objectave achieves an ETS , th first outcome desired
Secondly th 5% says unilaterally if rest of world does nothing ..zero target agreemetn , then we ar prepared to make a “stand” at OUR econamic cost of 5% approx competitively vs our trading partners (knowing 5% is NOT adequare for CC reduction purposes of couse obviousley but to show good faith at 5% cost…big potential cost , degree unknown
Th third areas is more complex I feel , ie what to put on table Th 15% is a ‘bait’ figure…it has NOTHING to do with CC % targets themselves Rudd could hav for example put up 20% On th other hand Rudd COULD hav accepted Garnauts more likely recomendation in his Report of th lower 10% ! My understanding is Govt toyed with 10% and EU were sitting on 20% on table and wanted oz higher than Garnaut’s 10% simply for nefgotiating muscle on th USA (th key player) Everything about Coppenhaggen is first crucualy about getting US inside Kyoto as it is only County not in & getting there commitment and at an accpetable % level …therefater deels with developing countrys China and India ar next priority with some dispensations as provided for under th Kyotyp protocols…finaly6 russia via embarassment of all big econamic blocks ar “in” (as Putin will play hard ball curently on his dispensation 0% current figure to 2012)
This is where bluff and negotiations come in I believe EU were happy with Rudd at 15% , with th big econamic block EU at 20% which has equivalent GDP to USA Now th EU pressure will be you USA need to match us we’re same size…US ar reluctant about th whole Kyoto thingy including Obama …he doesn’t suport Kyoto ratification at all However if US bulk at 20% equivalent to EU , there’s oz at 15% as thnext level US ar staring at to drop to However oz ar only 5% of US gdp making it very difficult for US to go below 15% (given oz and US ar both bad emmitters) Had oz gone for 20% , th oz 5% to 20% range looked fake at glance , wuld also hav been doubkle Garnauts more likely Report recomendation of 10% leaving open to why do and Report and then double it and furthermore th 20% making us equal to EU’s 20% wuld leave reluctant th US in a take it 20% (EU/oz) or talk feast reaction (ie procrastinate…ie nothing reely) I’d assume EU hav had off record netotiating discusions with Japamn and others as well USA can not be scared away nor get off litely on % targets for CC mitigaton
Over riding all this is Country by Country posturing both for FA and domesticaly
Now even if you were to dismiss th theorys in 3rd point , th final Coppenhaggen % target will arise from behind scene deeling & negotiating and some bluff and bustar of many Nations , and LITTLE of what is said publicly re a % whether its Rudds upper 15% is relating to whether its a desirale % target for science reasons alone at all , but what can actualy get agreed by ALL Mationals at th max % posible both politcaly by Country , econamicaly and socialy by Nation and all varying by Country An international CC mitigation agreed decision therefore will include all of these matters as well as th knowldge of all of th science There is no way th decision in reality will be based on science alone even though we’d like it to be because reel World reflects those other 3 areas as well Hopefuly having got o end og my thoughts I’ve still got those poker hands , none of which ar what they seem to be
Windschuttle:
“There’s only a very small number of untruths in it,” he said. “The great majority of what the article says, 85 per cent of what it says, is perfectly legitimate points based on real footnotes, real sources and factual information.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24882024-601,00.html
OOH, AAH, NAUGHTY: Only 15% was untrue, illegitimate, unfactual, falsely footnoted and falsely sourced? What is 15% to your average black armbanded culture warrior? Wouldn’t want to let the truth get in the way of a good (his)story would we?
Could not have happened to a nicer person and a nicer journal.
Of course now the challenge will be to find out who the successful hoaxer is. I just happen to be reading ‘Gould’s Book of Fish’ and it does deal lengthily with perceptions of truth and real truth, and such like philosphical anticks… I ask myself, could Windschuttle be the thirteenth fish? Hook, line and sinker?
Ron “can China keep suporting US securities and at what reward , and how strong can dollar hold”
should hav used “will” , sorry , meant “can’ in th sense of will” agree Socrates , and th Chinese hav some intersting choises there Yes I’m quite worried about those Hedge Funds positions actualy
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