Like Essential Media before it, Roy Morgan’s first poll of the year shows no significant change from the last polls of 2008. The face-to-face survey has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 60-40 and their primary vote down one point to 51.5 per cent, while the Coalition’s is down half a point to 35 per cent. The Greens have recovered two points from the curious slump they suffered in the first poll after the government’s emissions trading scheme announcement, which brought them down from 10.5 per cent to 6 per cent. What’s more:
• South Australia’s first state by-election since 1994 will be held tomorrow in Frome. Read and comment about it here, and tune in to this site for live coverage of the count from about 6.30pm local time.
• It appears a contest is on to fill Petro Georgiou’s Liberal preselection vacancy in Kooyong, with reports emerging that merchant banker Josh Frydenburg is not the shoo-in many had assumed. Frydenburg pursued a membership recruitment drive before the last election in an unsuccessful bid to topple Georgiou, but sources quoted by Andrew Landeryou at VexNews say two-thirds of these memberships have lapsed. This leaves Frydenberg vulnerable to opposition from Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam, previously an unsuccessful candidate for Senate preselection (and more recently mentioned as a successor to Peter Costello in Higgins), who stands poised to garner support from Georgiou and the locally powerful Ted Baillieu/David Davis faction. Also mentioned is John Pesutto, described by Melissa Fyfe of The Age as “an industrial relations lawyer who led a rewrite of the Victorian Liberal Party’s constitution last year”.
• Liberal Senator Judith Troeth has announced she will retire when her current term ends in mid-2011, adding a new dimension to the Victorian Senate preselection contest for the next election. The Nationals are likely to secure an extension of the agreement that will give them second place on a joint Coalition ticket, leaving the Liberals with the safe first position and the dangerous third. Michael Ronaldson is presumably likely to retain pole position from the 2004 election; Troeth’s departure enhances Nationals renegade Julian McGauran’s chances of taking number three.
• Marc Moncrief of The Age on the race to fill Evan Thornley’s vacancy in the Victorian upper house region of South Metropolitan:
Labor’s factions are also in a battle over how to fill the vacancy in the upper house created by Mr Thornley’s departure, with confusion over whether the Southern Metropolitan seat will be delivered to Labor’s right-wing Unity faction or to the Socialist Left. Unity faction powerbroker Michael Danby, the federal member for Melbourne Ports, is believed to have collected a number of names including Julia Mason, former candidate for the federal seat of Goldstein. However, one member of the Right faction said the Left was more likely to have a claim to the post, as Unity now holds all three of the top positions in Parliament – Premier, Deputy Premier and Treasurer. If the Left is given the nod, it will have to ensure the choice is a member who can keep the relatively conservative seat at the next election.
• Other ructions in the Victorian ALP: forces of the Right associated with Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy have formed an alliance with the Socialist Left, freezing out what The Australian’s Rick Wallace describes as “the portion of the Right aligned with state frontbenchers Tim Holding and Martin Pakula and the shop assistants’ union”. More commentary plus an intermittently interesting comments thread at VexNews.
• Large parts of the media remain convinced that Anna Bligh will shortly be calling a Queensland state election. Mark Bahnisch at Larvatus Prodeo/Crikey isn’t so sure, while fellow local Possum deems Lawrence Springborg to be no better equipped to pitch to Brisbane as leader of the Liberal National Party than he was as head of a fractious coalition.
• The silly season news cycle has been awash with talk of Barnaby Joyce seeking a berth in the lower house to assume leadership of the Nationals, at the urging of John Howard. Joyce himself has mentioned Labor’s 2007 gains of Leichhardt, Dawson and Flynn. More intriguing has been talk of a move south of the border to take on independent Tony Windsor in New England, which locals quoted by Matthew Clayfield of The Australian had no trouble recognising as a most courageous proposition. Possum notes that any such move might cost the Nationals Joyce’s Queensland Senate seat in the event that the Liberal National Party disintegrates following a state election defeat.
• Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics gets in early on this year’s Tasmanian Legislative Council periodic election action. This year is the turn of Derwent, a Hobart seat held for Labor by Treasurer Michael Aird; Windermere, which extends from outer Launceston up the eastern bank of the Tamar River to the sea, and is held by independent Ivan Dean; and Devonport-based Mersey, held by independent Norma Jamieson. Jamieson’s retirement after one six-year term sets the scene for an unpredictable contest likely to attract a Melbourne Cup field. Aird and Dean are almost certain to be re-elected, potentially without opposition in Dean’s case.
• The indefatigable Ben Raue at The Tally Room has moved to his own domain.
294 Comments
Bull butter…
I am looking forward to the demise of the Traveston Dam loopies, the only political career it has ended is Kate Malloy’s. After her spectacular protest and dummy spit she failed to get close to winning a seat on The Sunshine Coast Regional Council.
I am sure the LNP policy to build a desal plant at Bribie Island will cost it more votes than it gains them.
A remarkably consistent set of bull butter from four different pollstes now… just a set of unfortunate coincidences for Turnbull.
Now for something different, a promise that is unlikely to see the light of day.
The Queensland Opposition has promised to release details of some of its major policies ahead of this year’s election. They’ve got till September to get their policies out to the public especially after the better than anticipated job figures yesterday, have dropped off another bogus reason for an early election that the Liberal National Party has been pedaling.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/16/2468090.htm
So Mark McArdle admits the LNP is skint, lets spend $5 million each, get real.
Ha he should be more worried about his own seat, but maybe he can tell people the Bribie Desal is a Labor idea?
ruawake, I’ve heard the Bribie Island desal plant policy described as less water for more money. Must make sense to someone but I don’t know why the Liberal National Party is so impressed by the idea
Morgan, ACN, Essential Research = Bull Butter
Galaxy, Newspoll = Legitimate
Nuff Said
So the ACN 52-48 poll a few months back can be struck from the record then? Should make the Labor supporters on this forum happy
If Newspoll or Galaxy had reported it then 52/48 would have had value but being from ACN it has none.
Steve
Plus the Borgs policy, the Springborgy one, not the LNP one, derides Labor for not building new dams.
Or you could go to climateproof, not the Borgy site or the LNP site but the semi official Borgy – Simpson – LNP wish list.
Is this LNP policy? Who knows.
At least the Nats and Libs used to be able to provide two platforms, now they are doing it as the same Party. Talk about schitzoid.
Glen, this poll must be an outlier – just like the other 70 ot 80 of them hey? Obviously Rudd is just in the honeymoon period.
Tom
Fair enough Glen, I will go with the last published Newspoll 5-7 December 2008.
59 ALP – 41 We wuz Robbed. TPP.
It will be fascinating (in a horrible sort of way for us Liberals) to see how long the Liberal Party will tolerate this sort of polling from Turnbull.
Unless things improve noticeably, I’d give him six more months, nine max.
It’s not as if the Party likes him.
dyno
I think the problem is that half the party kinda like him, the other half don’t but what is the alternative?
Cossie
Oh please, please, please make Tip the hammock leader.
Party members will vote for a leader (i) they like; or (ii) they respect; or (iii) they agree with; or (iv) they think will lead them to victory; or (v) who can pitch an appropriate mix of these qualities to a good majority in the party room. Make up your own minds about where Mr Turnbull stands in the eyes of his party room against each of these criteria.
Party members will vote for the person they percieve will enhance their position. Remember its politics, not tiddlywinks.
In either side you get preselected, get front bench or committee positions by forming alliances. Labor has a more formalised faction system but factions exist in the Libs as well.
Howard kept the factions in check – I doubt there is anyone in the Liberal Party who can do the same now.
ruawake @ 18
That’s a good one to add to the list. In pre-democratic countries with clientilist politics – think Cambodia – it’s the dominating factor, but when it comes to dominate an Australian party room’s thinking, it’s often a sign of a dying government as in NSW (grab the silver on the way out the door), or a moribund opposition (bald men fighting over a comb).
Turnbull is sitting on his hands and just popping his head up to take snipes at the government, secure in his belief that the economic meltdown will eventually sweep Rudd out of office, he’s certain he wont have to do anything at all but wait, just like Howard and Costello waited for that budget largesse to bring the voters back to heel, or the confected scandals, the strip club and Burke, they waited and waited and they’re still waiting as Costello put it to filter through, looks like Turnbull might have a long wait as well.
The latest clown to put his head up was Hockey over the unemployment numbers. Basically his criticism of Rudd was that Rudd had promised to keep unemployment low so he had broken a promise. Even if that was the case, and I don’t believe Rudd promised that at all, haven’t the Libs heard of the GFC and don’t they realise, like the rest of us do, that Rudd isn’t responsible for that?
“and I don’t believe Rudd promised that at all,”
well he did…….although there ar other parts of th Rudd promise sentence relevent
Citation?
Will Obama have the courage to do what is needed and on the scale that it is needed and, will the Republicans let the USA recover?
The requirements are staggering and much new and wildly innovative thinking will be required by Obama. Probably the stars have aligned and given the USA an intellectual with political ability the role as POTUS.
The situation described by Krugman is daunting to say the least.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/25456948/what_obama_must_do/print
The NSW Nationals have devised a “US-style primary system” which they’ll test in a seat in 2010, before the 2011 state election.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,24923189-5006784,00.html
Deflation in the US looks like being a big problem. The stimulus provided by dropping interest rates is almost meaningless if deflation makes low interest rates a bad deal. We’re about 4.5% CPI in Oz so we don’t have their problem , and our interest rates are much higher.
It just looks like we have lots more levers to pull to regulate the economy than the US, which appears to be running out of options. I read someone describing a stimulus package as like driving a car up a slippery slope. If you can control it well enough you reach the top and all’s good; but if you lose momentum the car can slide all the way back to the bottom and you’ve used a lot of petrol you really needed.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/16/the-tips-spread/
Diogenes when we were kids we had to jump out and put chocks behind the tyres to stop that downhill slide, that’s when we weren’t all running along behind pushing it to get us started
So we might all need to get out and push occasionally, which presumably equates to spending money we don’t really have. I’m not sure what chocks we can use but interest rate cuts and stimulus packages might fit the bill.
I’m very concerned about running behind the car and pushing; we’ll all get squashed if it slips backwards then, like these poor employees.
Talking about deflation:
http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/TIPS%20spread.png
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/16/the-tips-spread/#comments
Could not have put it better:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/
The Liberals biggest enemy are the morons writing for the Australian. But then they don’t help themselves by letting Minchin open his mouth in the parties name. While they have the voices from the dark ages crying out Turnbell has no hope.
Ruawake, Howard’s semi magical ability to keep the factions in check can be put down to incumbency. He was fortunate enough to come to the leadership when a very unpopular man was prime minister of a very old government, he had no such authority in his party in 1987 when Peacock was wreaking havoc on the frontbench. If Rudd had not looked like he was going to beat Howard in the lead up to the election you would have seen the Ferguson left and the socialist left giving him grief as they did Latham and Crean.
Turnbull has chosen one of the worst times to make his bid for the premiership, anytime in this term is probably ill advised but to do it so soon after Rudd took government was very bold and possibly very silly.
Down the track you’ll probably see Hockey or Pyne or someone else take the party leadership when Rudd’s popularity isn’t so strong and find that the factions will suddenly toe the line.
Turnbull will be crucified by Easter if his woeful poll numbers continue: he won’t make it to next year, regardless of polls.
Costello won’t contest an election that he has Buckley’s chance of winning: he’s there simply to control his faction’s numbers (which dangle over Turnbull’s head like the Sword of Damocles).
Pyne has a snowflake’s chance in hell of leading the Libs: he’s further to the left than Turnbull, and power-broker Minchin would rather have hot knitting needles poked into his eyes than have Boy Wonder Pyne in charge of an electoral annihilation.
Bishop, J has done her dash by being not only a hopeless Treasury spokesperson, but more so by being a plagiarist: she’s finished.
Hockey suffers the Beazley syndrome of being a jolly, overweight Uncle Buck type figure: no ticker, just like the hapless Beazley.
Andrew Robb is as insipid and uninspiring as Hockey.
That leaves either the fresh face of Greg Hunt or, wait for it… Tony Abbott.
Abbott offers the Libs a chance to re-connect with the party’s core Conservative support base. His love of all things WorkChoices can be overcome by a trip to Big George’s confessional and 10,000 Hail Marys.
It’s a little fanciful I know, but my $20 @ $34 (Sportingbet) says Abbott will lead the Libs at the next election. The Australian would be jolly well behind a Mad Monk leadership, to be sure.
I still don’t get why people think that just because the coalition continues to poll poorly, that it somehow translates to a death sentence for Turnbull. Exactly who does the coalition have in its ranks that has more self-confidence and would be a better performer than Turnbull?
I’m not saying Turnbull is a good leader, but the coalition would really be scraping the bottom of the barrel to find someone better to lead them. I can’t think of one.
And no, not Costello. He’s as popular to the electorate as Tony Abbott.
Spot on bo1234 but Julie Bishop surely has to take some of the blame ?
While she sure isn’t helping the cause, I don’t think for one second that she contributes to any of the poor coalition vote. They could have any other deputy leader/shadow treasurer at the helm, their vote would still be where it is. It is the fact that the party made themselves unelectable over the past decade with their far-right policies and the fact they think they can walk back in to govt at the next election without renewal, let alone no coherent policy positions, not to mention the incredible popularity of Kevin Rudd, which is the reason behind the coalition polling.
I’m of the view that the currant poll numbers have nothing to do with how the Liberal Party are traveling but are a sign that out there in voterland people are happy with how the Rudd Government is performing.
The Government has handled several issues well, lets take the main ones.
I.R: Regradless of what the Unions may think, in general Julia Gillard has put together a well rounded policy, Sharon Barrow needs to pull her head in for I’m not sure if she understands the currant situation facing the Government but thankfully Julia Gillard does understand.
I’m aware that there is some disquiet regarding Jules keeping the Building Commission, I’m inclinde to think Jules is playing a game for while Glen likes to claim she is in the pockett of the Unions but in reality Jules and the CFMEU are not friends and by keeping the commission that could be her way of showing who is boss!.
Economy: In many ways this is Turnbulls problem for under normal circumstances having a successful career in finance would be a strenght but with the currant economic crisis caused by bankers Turnbull by virture of his background that once strenght could well become a weakness.
PM Rudd has been on the front foot since August and while the slowdown is on and this year is shaping up to be very Interesting as long as the overall economy remains recession free Rudd will remain in control of this issue.
12 months ago I felt the U.S were already in recession and have maintained since that time that Australia would remain recession free, I’m confidence for the reasons I have previously outlined that we can remain recession free.
I’m looking forward to this years budget for the Government has several possible ways to approach it, hopefully it will remain positive.
ETS: Sure the political Left may be unhappy but again Rudd has delivered a sound policy yet at the same time as left the door open for further policy developments, this again shows Rudd is on the ball.
Sometimes I wonder if political types actually think about what they want the Government to do, I’m sure I have criticised Governments for not doing more but in general the role of Government is to take the advice and develop a policy that takes several factors into account.
The Government has been very clear about its objectives of protecting Jobs and when I last checked that was the first proity of an ALP government, in many ways Rudd is performing as a tradition ALP Government should and as a result those who like Governments to focus on pretty pictures will be disappointed but guess what the voters are loving it.
I’m of the view that all Malcolm Turnbull can do is be patient and I thibnk it was Adam who once suggested that first term oppositions should not be about releasing policy, if that comment was correct then I agree for Turnbull needs to recongise that the Voters rejected the Liberals Party for several reasons.
Malcolm needs to focus on developing a unified team that can Itenify what the Government does wrong and from there start to develop a new set of policies that should be rolled out during Election year, not two years out from polling day.
Sadly for Turnbull his effort has been poor, in part for he hasn’t shown himself to be focusing on the big issue, lets take when the economy went into meltdown, during that time Turnbull focused not on what the Government was doing but which public servant said waht to whom, while out there in voterland people were watching a sea of red on te stock-market.
If as I think will happen and that is while Unemployment will rise but in all the economy will avoid a recession, and with that the Government may even sneek a small sulphus then Turnbull is going to suffer a swing.
I’m of the view that apart from NSW I can’t see the Liberal Party making too many gains, in reality the next election may well be a repeat of the last but again everything at this stage is nazel gazing.
I’m not hearing the voters calling for Rudd’s head and that tends to occur well before a Government support starts to declinde, therefore Rudd looks safe for a second term.
At the moment the Liberal Party need to accept that it can’t go changing its leadership team although the likes of Costello and Nelson need to be on the frontbench.
Vera
#27
“…..we had to jump out and put chocks behind the tyres to stop that downhill slide, that’s when we weren’t all running along behind pushing it to get us started”
Hi Vera , i’m with you , a choock led recovery is way
US hav tried lowering interst rates in US to almost zero and hasn’t helped Then US gurus tried a unstrings atached 700 billion bailout to Instatutions to get lending going & so growth to get oils of th econamy moving….now guess what what do Financae czars did & ar doing , yep just what you’d expect…not lend to get rhingy econamy/business going , but pucker upp there own balanse sheets for survuival , and some greedies with tax payers bailout loot even ar going four for takeovers of weaker instarututions , but thats what an unregulatd un unstrings attached capitalism system was always gonna do , and is doing
Time to thow away th text books , get th choocks involved , put money into infrastucture and get lending going , but then those US financial wizards ar just such proven experts what with Wall steet and thats , so supose i shouldn’t come up with an alternitive choocks theory …but Ruddy likes th choocks aproach , and those polls for ruddy 60/40 mean people like th chooks way as well
Under Tony Abbott, the Coalition will be reduced to just 29 seats in the lower-house. Costello is the real deal for the Coalition, he is just being patient at the moment.
Bree! I don’t disagree but what leads you to think the Liberal Party would be reduced to just 29 seats under Abbott
hi Ron
We better be carefull that we don’t get our chocks and chooks mixed up or else it could be a KFC led recovery
It may be a Cayman Islands lead recovery.
Bailed-Out Firms Use Tax Havens
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/16/mark-ndesandjo-obamas-hal_n_158692.html
I have tipped Tony Abbott to be the next leader of the Libs for many months. Why? He is a political animal, he is happy to be the last man standing after everyone else has beaten themselves to a pulp.
G’day Vera
you ar right there ! , yes I seem to hav mixed up chocks and chooks there Of course those US financial gurus do sort of run around like headless chooks creating a mess
I decideed to watch a small amount of Fox News channel today. Greta Someone. You know, the fair and balanced channel. They had a poll. Apparently Obama went to a restaurant while Bush’s last address to the nation took place. The question was, was Obama disrespectful to the president or was it no big deal. The result was “disrepectful” 96%. This after O’Reilly did a thing about the “Bush haters”.
Tony Abbott leader? Surely those of you have said this jest. Tony Abbott’s election would be something of a cross between Mark Latham’s and John Brogdens.
First of all he has made it clear he outflanks all but Wilson Tuckey on the right wing, his views are well known, his views are ill recieved and presuming he doesn’t run a campaign that polarises 70% of the population he will never be able to convince the population that onces he’s in “we’ll change it all”.
Next members of his own party find his views to genuinely wrong, immoral and offensive. Some centralists cracked under Howard’s leadership, the most prominent was obviously Turnbull over Kyoto and under an Abbott leadership you would see more and more of that forever undermining his position as leader. Furthemore his right wing chums would be genuinely frightened that should Abbott win a slender majority in the house people like Petro( I know he won’t be there anymore but other progressives) would cross the floor a fair bit, perhaps join the crossbench and most frightening of all support a no confidence motion.
And finally, he’s a dill. He will say so many stupid, offensive, idiotic things within the campaign the electorate will think he has dementia.
Tony WorkChoices Abbott would certainly be praying hard that his heavenly father may give him dispensation to be party leader. I’m praying nearly as hard myself that this happens.
“Obama went to a restaurant while Bush’s last address to the nation took place.
The question was, was Obama disrespectful to the president or was it no big deal.”
If Rudd went to Maccz’s , whilst Howard was giving his concesion speech , what wuld you think
I think th answer is Rudd would be being disrespective both to Howard and to th “office” , even though Labor suporters may try to argue Howard does not deserve respect , wuldn’t cut with me
BTW , why couldn’t been clever and had his Macca’s home delivered , then no one would hav known whether he watched Bush’s speech or not Outside of lack of respect shown , hell not very earth shattering ‘News’ as th World is not gonna change either way is it
cuppa, i’m with you there, everytime he does an interview i cringe for him, to add to his idiotic utterances he sits there with his mouth half open and a feral look as if he’s going to jump on the questioner and take out a big bite, i cant see him endearing himself to joe voter, the mad monk definately describes him.
Judith, it’s when the interviewer sees him clenching his fists that there’s need to really worry!
Thomas Paine @ 42 says
Thomas the link you gave was about Obama’s piano playing half brother?
is this the story you were referring to?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/80-of-top-us-firms-use-tax-havens-20090117-7jid.html
Jeez better be careful what you write.
Whether this bloke was serious or not who knows but he’s in big trouble now for posting that he was going to kill Obama.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/17/2468353.htm
I think it’s the ones who don’t advertise their intentions that are the real danger.
vera
Posted Saturday, January 17, 2009 at 8:24 pm | Permalink
“Jeez better be careful what you write.”
So its possible they ar watching what i write , or ar they still in th deciphering stage
I read somewhere where PM Ben chifley used to drive alone unescortd from his NSW Country town AS TH PM of oz , to Canberra for parlament , and stay in a seven star hotel ? Nah , just a simple one room apartment
Times hav changed and reckon all progress may not be proges when you hear of nuters like ythat US bloger
It would do the Liberals no harm if the right wing nutters got a good spanking at the next elections, Abbott in charge would present the electorate with a golden opportunity.
Looks like some brightspark has nearly worked out how to isolate bad debt from the US banks. Just a matter of what value to place on the toxic assets seems to be holding them back at present.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/17/business/17nocera.html?_r=1
Ron I reckon you are safe. they won’t be able to crack your code.
Just as well all the amigos did was call Obi a few different names , I think it’s OK to do that.
Amigo Vera, the latest Irish joke is that they are still taking bet over in Ireland on when Obi will be bumped.
LOL – good one Ron.
Hardly an equivalent situation Ron. Bush wasn’t conceding any bloody thing actually.
Frome- Unlikely, but if the independent on 23.1% could edge in front of Labor(25.1) he would probably win it on Labor preferences. Most of his primary vote looks to have been taken Labor. 2PP as it stands is unchanged from the election.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/sa/2009/frome/
Oh, theres a proper place for that. Many sorries. I’ll shutup and go read it.
Yes, sorry. My early link was to the wrong story.
Bailed-Out Firms Use Tax Havens
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/01/16/over-8-in-10-corporations_n_158693.html
William, there were a number of stories a few weeks ago that confirmed that the Nationals will retain their number 2 spot on the Victorian Senate ticket at the next election. I believe it was confirmed by the parties. That would at least give them one guaranteed seat. It’ll be New South Wales and Queensland that will be interesting to watch… losses there would reduce their Senate membership to 4, with Nigel Scullion almost certain to regain the leadership. Ron Boswell has pledged to resign halfway through his term though… so that could pave the way for a return for Joyce should he not win a House seat.
Just heard on the ABC Newsradio that James Packer is over weight and in depression. He also cancelled his order of a $60m private jet, his new swimming pool, selling his luxury yacht and lost half of his fortune. He is worth $1.5Billion ONLY.
Poor guy, if you cannot be happy with $1.5B why not try just a beautiful Sunday walk among the water, the trees and the birds. hey, they are free. It does make you feel good.
Happy sunday to all, especially the Amigos.
How to demonise a minority, Curious Snail style.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24927125-952,00.html
Whoever leads the Liberal Party to the next election will lose (barring some truly bizarre occurrence).
On current polling you would expect it to be an absolute slaughter, but nearly two years out I suppose there’s a lot that can happen to close the gap. But very hard to see the Liberals winning or even coming close. The best they can do is lose (say) only a few more seats, and not put 2013 totally out of reach.
The question is: who would do the least damage? And the answer to that question is there are only two serious possibilities: Turnbull or Costello. Abbott’s too right-wing and too likely to do something (politically) crazy under pressure. Hockey’s too callow. Bishop’s useless. Hunt’s a neophyte. Robb’s barely known outside the Liberal Party. Nelson – can’t see it in this Parliament.
Turnbull is the most centrist and has views that many people would agree with, or at least could live with. Costello’s big selling point is the strong economy when he was Treasurer, the worse the economy gets in 2009, the more of an electoral asset this becomes. If we have a recession, and it the Liberals’ polling doesn’t improve, there’ll be a huge amount of pressure on Costello to have a go at it. But I’m pretty sure he’s not interested …
he’s baaack, the poisoned dwarf returns –again with fantasyland dreams of the libs riding home on this economic meltdown.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24925436-5001030,00.html
Judith,
I am a Liberal voter, but you really have to wonder what Milne is smoking when he seeks to imply that Rudd is in any danger of losing the next election (whenever it happens).
Just look at the polls, Glenn!
dyno, facts are facts and Bolt, Milne, Albrechson, Akerman and Shanahan dont do the libs any favours by banging this particular drum, the libs will have to reinvent themselves before they’re electable, they need to get rid of the old hacks and dead wood and bring in some fresh new young turks with bright new ideas, for heavens sake, they’ve got discredited hacks like Heffernan, B Bishop, Ruddock, Minchin and Howard’s old sychophants swinging in the breeze, Hocky and Nelson are dead meat after their stints with work choices, thats tarred them forever, J Bishop is useless and the plaigerism tag will dog her, Turnbull is a mobile ego actively disliked by his compatriots and to be quite frank Costello would pull them down further as a leader, Howard did a great job of wrecking the party he professes to love, he’s now stirring the pot with Barnaby Joyce, Joyce would be a fool to listen to Howard, we need a good strong opposition to keep the government on it’s toes, that could only be a win win situation for the voters—- though as i’m very biased i’d like to see labor hang in there for years lol.
This will be a nail to the coffin of any aspiration the Libs and their conga-line-of-suck holes (dwarf, shanana etc) have about Rudd Govt being one term wonder. It’s not just a Rudd govt, it’s Rudd/Gillard Govt and the punters love it.
the link above:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/match-made-in-heaven/2009/01/17/1231609053562.html
dyno and Judith
I agree. The current financial mess is so obviously not the government’s fault, and the coalitions senate budget tactics so obviously cynical, that this will be a strength for the government, not a weakness.
IMO right wingers trying to influence political opinion in their direction who write stuff like Milne’s actually do their own side more harm than good. Right wingers might agree but they won’t change their vote. Left wingers will laugh at it and not change their vote. Those in the middle who read it will conclude that its a false criticism of the government, and see they are being unfairly attacked, probaby evoking sympathy.
It reminds me of their earlierr attempt to first imply that Rudd was lazy(!!) and then imply he spent too much time flying around the world on holidays (while not attending a single cricket match). A false attack is worse than no attack at all.
Peter Brent often speculates that Costello wants to take on Rudd during a honeymoon period if the economy falters. “rising unemployment, rising inflation, interest rates at eight and a half percent, Turnbull challenges the incumbent, probably Turnbull who has been trailing for their whole term just as Rudd’s popularity begins to decline, Costello hammers the point of his economic record versus Rudd’s etc” In that scenario I think it would game on even money.
But aside from a near perfect manouvre governments generally win their first re-election. Hawke and Fraser did by landslides, Howard had a hap-hazzard first term and still limped over the line and despite journalists speculating about this and that, Rudd has had a very smooth ride thus far hence his popularity.
I’m of the opinion that two term strategies are the way to go in your first terms out of government. Latham type politicians lose by landslides but they also deal some stinging blows to the incumbent that they still have to deal with in three years, more importantly their party rushes to the other end of the ship. If Latham had contested the 1998 election then whoever contested the 2001 election probably wouldn’t have those pesky members of the Ferguson left demanding they have a say, especially not Laurrie. You can’t just pick the most partisan hack in the party though you do need someone who is so clever Rudd can’t just parry and give a cheesy smile, Bishop could do that, they’d lose 2010 by a landslide and 2013 would be theres for the taking. Problem is convincing people in marginals to take three years of leave without pay.
Dyno
“Turnbull or Costello. Abbott’s too right-wing and too likely to do something (politically) crazy under pressure. Hockey’s too callow. Bishop’s useless. Hunt’s a neophyte. Robb’s barely known outside the Liberal Party. Nelson – can’t see it in this Parliament.”
Dyno , “Hockey’s too callow. Hunt’s a neophyte.” to save me research on these words , I assume you’re saying NO to both , th Hunt neophyte sounds like he’s abit sexy to ladys
However feel hunt is a long term propostiton for Part as has potential As for joe Hockey , I don’t mind Joe at all , actualy Kevin07 didn’t either , probably Joe may hav th Kim Besley look not look sound tough enough , pity there Agree on Robb and Nelson , with Robb he’s quite a smart guy but you wuldn’t hav him as 1/2 time coach inpirring th trops Yes julie just has been over promoted via her William State clan Agree also on Abbott , sorry about that ruawake hope you don’t put money on tony but Tony is a reel fundamentelist believer with no flexibility & so Party wuld know public like mor centrist ones (sorry to sneak in my centrist bit in there by way)
so Dyno we ar agreed , its Costello or Turnbull , both hav serous but diferent plus’s as a Leader against Rudd , but both hav serous but negativ ones as well & respectave negatives of each just too big to be able to prevent normal historic 2nd term PM , ebeen if econamy gets to where i reckon ..unemoploy 6-7% , budget in deficit , tech recession , although probaly 3.5% interest rates & low inflaton
Also dyno , reckon a ‘ronipolitc revoluton’ has occured in politcal landscape , which i’d explore with you at another time , ands in th meantime yous decipher-ers eat your hart out on that one
“probably Joe may hav th Kim Besley look not look sound tough enough”
Sorry, we’re actually meant to decipher this?
i dont agree Costello could be a plus, his financial management was shot when it came out he let Howard have full rein and nowadays most seem to take the thought he just rode the mining boom and let it be wasted instead of investing in infrastructure, his little boy sulking and pouting hasnt done him any favours neither, quite a few of the public are shttd off he spent parliament time either out to golf and long lunches or in the back benches typing away at his wonderful book, that went as flat as a pancake as well, it was in the specials bin inside of two weeks, he’s deeply tied in with work choices and Rudd can play on that, when its a whole list of stuff folks like that can have long memories, i think the rusted on libs would be the only ones to welcome him with open arms.
Judith, if the economy holds up then Robert Menzies couldn’t reduce Rudd’s majority, let alone anyone win the election. First termers have a headstart and Rudd is an unusually talented politician, irrespective of what you personally think of him he, like Turnbull and Bob Hawke is very talented.
But his style is very much suited to the current climate, or rather 2007, whether Rudd can appear strong and compassionate when Australia is in an economic crisis is yet to be seen. And should he perform badly in a crisis, And Costello becomes the alternative talking about his eleven years of growth. Costello is a competent politician, not in the same league as Turnbull or Rudd but far more skilled than Latham or Hewson. The only way coalition could win government at the next election is under a Costello leadership, preferably with a Turnbull deputy and shadow treasurer, and during an economic melt down.
njl, everyone knows that is just a Liberal fairytale.
There was actually 16 years of economic growth. And the economy was still up and down until 2001, when the mining boom kicked in, which then saw the Liberals ride it without planning for the future.
Interest rates to remain at a record low under a Liberal government? 11 rises?
People see it for what it is.
Howard didn’t really win his elections, poor Labor leadership lost them.
njl, got any evidence of this economic meltdown yet or is it still just wishful thinking?
“Howard didn’t really win his elections, poor Labor leadership lost them”
Thats not realistic labor statregists wuld think , Howard actualy was a brillant “politican” , whether one agreed with his policys or not…..you just don’t win 4 electons on th trot solely cause th opposition Leadership is no good
Ron, he was classic Howard in 2007 sans WorkChoices, look at all the bait that Labor would normally have fallen for, but under Rudd didn’t.
Haneef comes to mind.
And the intervention.
Ron Howard was a fear monger playing on everyone’s worse fears after the twin towers, before that he only scraped in getting less of the vote but having the seats, anyone can turn the crowd around playing on their fears and nightmares, he played that card till the end–what do you think the Haneef affair was about? people had sat up and noticed by then so it was an overplay by Howard.
njl, i mix fairly widely and definately not just with laborites and no one i’ve come across yet has a good word to say about Costello, they see him as a bludger letting his party down when they needed him, gutless is how a lib pal describes him, Rudd would be able to beat him up with his involvment with the H.R.Nichols society and work choices, Costello and Minchin started the society and it was one of the main driving forces behind work choices, believe it or not most are aware he coasted on the mining boom and did little with it, the libs need a cleanskin like labor needed Rudd.
Gay marriage, gays in the airforce, welfare payments to drug addicts, anti-terrorism laws….
All pure Rove.
BTW I’m reading a Rove bio to celebrate the end of Bush’s presidency. Rove’s dad was bisexual and a body piercing fetishist (as well as not being his real dad, a fact Rove only found out when he was 18). Rove’s mum committed suicide. It sort of explains Rove’s totally sociopathic personality.
Bob I do agree with you, I don’t believe Howard was a formidable politician. He lost in 87, in 96 he beat an old, stale, arrogant, unpopular government, in 98 he lost the popular vote and the first re-election bid is normally a very safe one, he was trailing greatly in 2001 before tampa and 9.11, events I believe were worth about 5% in votes to any incumbent government and defeated a very silly leader in Mark Latham. No grand wins along the line in my opinion, he showed considerable skill during the Tampa, I’ll hand that one to him.
But people do not see it for how it is that is your mistake. We Bob are intellectuals, but ordinary people are not so bright. Let’s not forget these genius’ that are the Australian public told us that Bob Hawke is more capable of running Australia than John Howard, John Hewson was more capable than Bob Hawke, Paul Keating was more capable than John Hewson but John Howard ws more capable than Paul Keating. Go figure, they know nothing.
If their is an economic meltdown and Peter Costello is the leader of the liberal party they will see this strong, loud, witty man shoving down their throats the fact that when he was in charge of the economy that things were good and now the small, glassess wearing twerp who speaks in cultivated Australian runs the economy it is going down the tube, just like he said it would. And he will tell them, don’t worry, it’s not too late, I’m still here, I can take us back from whence we came and all these stupid people out there who thought Mark Latham was going to induce a depression but thought Kevin Rudd would produce growth and employment will swallow it whole and come flocking back to Costello.
It is bollocks and it is also very difficult to manouvre, but if the economy goes down the tube and Costello times his move that will be whats on the cards.
And Steve, I’m not predicting or expecting an economic meltdown, merely that the two ingredients neccessary for Rudd to be a one term wonder is eco meltdown and Costello at the helm after a late leadership switch. If Costello is there for too long he’ll wear thin, he wants to be leader for nine months tops coming into the election.
njl, as one of the not so bright ordinary people {albeit a very biased one} i cant swallow the Costello leading the libs to victory scenario, i know i’m not an intellectual and sometimes i hold back here because of it, but sometimes folk like me can be more in touch with the “normal” person, i’m just a very ordinary middle class old dear but i do get around, actually i’m very surprised at the scathing regard Costello is held in by my professional friends, a top criminal lawyer i know loves all things lib but he’s told me he wouldnt give Cossie a drink if he was dying of thirst, that sort of threw me, never mind, a working crystal ball would go down well right now, Rudd is seen to be trying hard and pressing the right buttons and folks seem to be satisfied with that, Rudd’s honest assessment of where we stand also seems to go down well.
njl, so which economic indicators are going to tell us that we have reached a point where the Government will be changed. Is it interest rates, inflation rate,unemployment rate, the ASX 200 index, new home sales, new car sales or what exactly?
Finns @ 64 that’s one sad story about the poor sad fat bugger down to his last one and a half billion. Do you think we might need to start up a collection for him?
I’m not an economist or political analyst, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if there was a historical correlation between high unemployment and government dissatisfaction.
njl
#85
“Bob ,….But people do not see it for how it is that is your mistake. WE Bob ARE intellectuals, BUT ORDINARY PEOPLE ARE NOT SO BRIGHT . Let’s not forget these genius’ that are the Australian public told us that Bob Hawke is more capable of running Australia than John Howard….”
Intelectuals ?….well I hav demolished far smarter intelectuals than you here , you elitist snobery argumment base There’s been so many slain elkitist imtelectuals I just forget most of there names , and actualy i’ve almost forgotten yours as I post
“Let’s not forget these genius’ that are the Australian public told us that Bob Hawke is more capable of running Australia than John Howard”
Bob hawke was a Rhods Scholar , like university trained like (th minority) elitist intelectual smug set , however whereas you lot entered Uni without either wisdom or basic commonsense , and because wisdom and basic comonsense ar not taught at Uni who’ve actualy left Uni only with a mountain of info of bewildaring facts….but still without any wisdom or basic commonsense making much of your acquired “high knowledge” rather reduntant because wisdom and basic commonsense ar pre-requisitees for reel “World” intrinsic logics …so instead you extract these mointains of Uni taught information in random form lacking reel ‘world” sense so is it any wonder your coments lack “consistant” rational judgement let alone humilty …. so your post shows you ar th reel bunny and th public clever by comparison Of course if i was uneducated i’d call you a w..ank.er , but am too highly educated for that
Now bob Hawke had wisdom & basic commonsense in bucket loads , and he’s our 3rd greatest PM , but given your random but ilogical extracton of your elitist acquired uni learnt knowledge mountain i ‘m not at all suprised you do not by yur lunderstand Hawke’s greatness
vera, i’m sure i could dig deep and find a few bucks left over from my handout just before xmas, i was saving it to buy a couple of books by my favourite author but what the hell!
lol Judith you’re all heart
Judith, are you giving a direct donation or using the Courier Mail approved method of drip feeding it through one of his gambling machines?
Judith, politics, elections and opinion polls are a funny business. For whatever reason leading a party, or being the prime minister itself means people use a whole different set of criteria to evaluate you.
Nelson although not particularly popular was a competent minister for Howard and on the whole an assett to the Howard government. Some might say “Nelson, the bastard who took us to war and…” Nelson didn’t declare war on Iraq it was a cabinet decision, like most major policies, he, as was his job, converted them into workable policies and defended them, sold them to the public, under the circumstances he did quite well.
But as a party leader the word that comes to mind straight off the bat is hapless. He seemed small, he seemed overstretched, his style of dialogue that seemed so useful as a cabinet minister for connecting with middle Australia made him seem like a pretender trying to play with the big boys(Rudd, Tanner, Costelloand Turnbull).
All people really saw Costello is economic, parliamentary and party machine, parliamentary he has a belligerent smart arse demeanour, economically he was tough and uncompromising, GST on food, workchoices, service cuts, and in the party machine he seemed jealous, scheming and less than slightly brave. When he is leader his relationship with the machine won’t be so relevant, his economic policy will only be part of what he stands for(and if it were during an economic meltdown his policies would be lauded anyway) and his parliamentary demeanour…well it would probably be belligerent smartarse but thats not so bad if it’s in conjunction with other good stuff. When you lead the party people ask you about where you grew up, what your favourite food is, whats your favourite film, you become a person not a functionary.
Furthermore the economic climate at the time will shape to a large extent the way people view Rudd, and the way people view Rudd will largely shape the way they view the alternative party of government and their leader. If things stop looking so flash, and on that point Steve I think it will be unemployment, interest rates, budget deficits and the amount of government spending that will shape the way people think the Rudd goverment is managing the economy, although I am talking in extremes, slightly less sunny economic conditions than under Howard isn’t going to make people abandon Kevin. If the economy is poor, Costello had just returned to the leadership he will find himself more popular than he ever did as treasurer.
Another point to emphasise is there is a reason he will want to let the dust settle and stay out of the road for a while, Nelson and Turnbull are suffering the consequences of taking on a new government when the old one had lost popularity. By 2010 Howard/Costello government will seem alot more tolerable to the swinging voters then it does right now.
Oz, I don’t think that it favours any particular party, but I do believe, as Peter Brent believes, as Tom Switzer believes, as Paul Keating believes that economic turbulence does leave the electorate more inclined to change than economic growth and stability.
Ron to mistake an education for intellect would be a grave error, I consider Paul Keating to be by far the most intelligent prime minister I have lived through though not the most sensible or moral I am fairly certain had the least educational qualifications of any post war prime minister.
Your other grave error was to extract part of what I said out of context so to completely mistake the point. Australians weren’t stupid for voting in Bob Hawke, they were stupid because somehow they came the conculsion that a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.
Howard might have got a medal for toeing the line from his master George W Bush but he never got made a Chief.
http://www.solomontimes.com/news.aspx?nwID=3346
sorry Steve i couldnt imagine anything more boring than sitting on a stool pressing a button, besides flashing lights and jangling music gives me a headache–i guess it’ll have to be courier–does anyone have his address?
njl
“he Costello seemed jealous, schemingless , and less than slightly brave”
“and LESS than SLIGHTLY brave”
you just proved my point , you learnt too many words and don’t know how to rationaly make a judgemtn from them …..and you done th imposible…made Costello neither brave nor a coward
Schemingless is a pretty bad typo, but it’s just a type, I had thought of saying gutless but thought it was abit harsh and changed it to less than slightly brave. And I have nothing impossible unless it is impossible to accurately state how he is percieved by swinging voters.
njl, i humbly bow down to your superior intellect, thanks for the lesson, mind you still havnt addressed the H.R.Nichols/work choices leaden brick Cossie has hanging around his neck, anyone who thinks Rudd is too much of a gentleman to overlook anything in a cat fight is dreaming, Rudd will just do it in a much more gentlmanly polite way thats all, for all his trying Cossie never ever managed to get the measure of Rudd.
vera, i’m sure Hawky’s chieftianship is definately the higher award of the two, after all Bush’s award was handed out in bulk, this one seems a bit more exclusive, better boasting power lol.
Less than “slightly brave” – Great assessment really. I wouldn’t have been able to think that one up myself.
Judith I would respect you more for throwing my slippers at me then for fetching them even in sarcastic admiration. Basically I think so long as he isn’t so dumb as to decide to bring workchoices back as an election manifesto that within a year workchoices/H.R.Nicholas will be about as tainting as “ease the squeeze” “troops home by christmas” is for labor.
You should be weary that just as Keating’s earlier quickwit, sense of humour and willingness to be blunt was once endearing only to become arrogance, Kevin Rudd’s chivalry which I love, i really do, will wear thin and before you know it the electorate wll think it smug, pompous and lofty. Politics is a very unfair world it’s no wonder people like Joh turn corrupt.
Perhaps I should just clarify, one of my habits when speaking/writing is to be round about and at times delicate. Describing things as less than slightly something is a common thing, in particular I describe alot of things as less than slightly gruntled, rather than call them disgruntle. I like words, there fun.
njl is looking for:
“rising unemployment, rising inflation, interest rates at eight and a half percent”
This is not about stagflation, it’s about deflation, rising unemployment, deflation and interest rates stuck around zero for decades. Don’t assume the problems seen are the problems to be.
Judith Barnes
“njl, i humbly bow down to your superior intellect”
so you damn well should , after all njl in 395 said “Australians weren’t stupid for voting in Bob Hawke, they were stupid because somehow they came the
conculsion that a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.”
I mean “a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.”…someone is doing an amateurish job pof cloning ronilinguistics her However Judith if you read this pearler from njl $85
“We Bob are intellectuals, but ordinary people are NOT so bright. Let’s not forget these genius’ that are the Australian public told us that Bob Hawke is more capable of running Australia than John Howard, John Hewson was more capable than Bob Hawke, Paul Keating was more capable than John Hewson but John Howard ws more capable than Paul Keating. Go figure, they know nothing.”
Now what njl is saying is quote he is an intelectual and public ar not beright , but that he njl (intelectual and bright) has no bloody idea why voters voted in and out those politcans , but judith we do …and so do th public , so actualy you ar th clever one after all
What I’m really looking at is people finding it harder to make ends meet. Don’t really care wht it is that actually causes it, I just cited some of the usual suspects.
Ron, you’re rather good at paraphrasing things in a way that distorts the meaning ever so slightly and attacking the paraphrase and not the original. You might get away with doing that to ordinary people but alas I am an intellectual.
What I am saying is that swinging voters generally operate under the system that they change governments when they get bored of the old people unless the alternative provides a reason not to and that is is not supremely arrogant to scoff at these kingmakers.
njl
some interesting points to ponder.
Tip is still a “contender’- whether as a stalking horse or the real deal is yet to be seen.
One big pointer is that he is still in Parl.
(milne reinforces the “good” pete by such lines as “Peter Costellos 22b surplus”)
“Ron, …. but alas I am an intellectual”
Well to be acurate an elitist snobby based intelectual , and my goodness ..alas
.
your problam is I ACTUALY quoted you acurately….and then indicated how ridiculous what you said was
Now you may get with absurd politcal coments on an amateur politcal blog like ACTUALY your quote “they (th public) were stupid because somehow they came the conculsion that a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.” But not here , this is reel high class politcal intercourse here , and your sloppy , and smug , stuff does not cut mustard
I’ve been Newspolled, which suggests pretty strongly that they’ll be publishing one on Tuesday.
For those interested in what else they might publish polls on, the only other ‘political’ issue I was asked about was attitudes to live sheep exports (seems odd timing as the issue hasn’t exactly been at the front of the news agenda in the last few months). There was also a swag of market research questions, including several about any recent visits I might have made to Port Phillip or Westernport Bay, which I thought was going to be a lead-in to questions about channel deepening, but wasn’t.
Ron I think you left out smug on your list of epithets but don’t worry ordinary people can be forgiven for making such errors. You quoted me yes, and then went on to say that what i mean by that is… What I actually meant by that, (shocking as this may sound) is precisely what I said.
Don’t worry though I’ll try and lift my game to keep up with you comrade.
njl
“What I actually meant by that, (shocking as this may sound) is precisely what I said. ”
Yep quote “We Bob are intellectuals, but ordinary people are NOT so bright.”
I knew what you wrote was quote “precisely what I said.”
Now njl as four “Don’t worry though I’ll try and lift my game to keep up with you comrade.”….well njl , make sure your english is of a high stansard as well , this Site is very particular about that
now, now njl, i gave up looking for respect from any source yonks ago, though fate has forced me into dealing with pollies and professionals i cant say i’d call them intellectuals—all except for Lynn Arnold who was a true brain and a good friend even before i was thrown in the path of my other betters, i’m sure they all just smilingly tolerate me most times and put up with my love of bailing them up about politics, you’ll just have to be patient with me though i’m a very slow learner, i still cant get my head around Cossie gloriously leading the libs to victory, have you met the man? mind he is one better than dolly was, have you ever had a very limp handshake? it’s not nice let me tell you, still i guess stranger things have happened so i’ll just have to keep up my quest for that elusive crystal ball, if i believe in karma and nemisis {which i do} i can believe in a crystal ball also—unless you’d like to lend me yours.
Blair, good to see Newspoll back even though we knew it as soon as Liberal Headquarters trotted out njl to try to give their supporters some sort of oblique hope for the future.
Blair, newspoll in disguise, excellent looks like things will get back to normal and the long boring summer break is over, it reminds me of just how much i loathe cricket and tennis.
njl, i apologise for being a btch, not for the things i’ve said about Cossie though, i truly believe them, i’m a little jumpy right now waiting for news i want but dont want that still may not happen, sounds cryptic i suppose but true, i shouldnt take my sleeplessness and nerves out on being sarcastic to someone else, though you must admit the intellectual bit was–well– rather pompous sounding, i warned you i’m one of the great unwashed lol, cheers, judy.
i thought Wriedt resigned earlier, hmmm i could have sworn i read that somewhere.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/01/18/2468568.htm
Despite the doom and gloom in the popular press, the mortgage belt are screaming yippee, even ones with only a $150,000 mortgage are saving $50 a week. With more to come.
The one’s who have to commute by car are saying yeah, it costs me $60 to fill up the Commodore instaed of $90.
That why Rudd is popular, the Great Global Financial Swindle is helping many. If interest rates keep falling expact the popularity to increase.
The great hope for the Libs is unemployment – but they ensured this will stay low (statistically) by creating a casualised work-force, intentionally.
The majority of people hurt by the GGFS voted Liberal – The Fred Nurk and Associates types with the leased Lexus. The ones who fell for the false dream, bugger equity go into debt.
Get a low doc loan and sell it before you have to pay for it, in the old days they were called con-men.
I am happy the Great Swindle has occurred – maybe now people who do real stuff and make real stuff can be elevated to real people and the shonks and con-men can go back where they belong. (selling used cars).
Ron
If njl persists in using complete sentences with correct grammar and cogent arguments, I agree that he has no place on this blog. We can’t have our standards compromised.
Diog , I may hav lived with his uncogent arguments like “that a beats b, c beats a, d beats c but b beats d.” because i actualy had a mathamatical scientific counter to that maths , but his corect lofty english was just beyond th pall……and as you rightly say ..We just can’t have our standards compromised when you think about it
Your continued understanding shows how enlitened you’ve become with our educationol company
Judith you’ve been fine, I know I am a bit of a smug, pompous, lofty, know it all. I enjoy it, Some will just ignore it, they’re welcome to, some will react a tad reprovingly,I don’t begrudge them for that I give them every reason to.
On Costello if he were to lead the party now he’d do terribly, odds are if he lead the party in a year he would do terribly. But a year is a long time in politics and he would be percieved considerably better, although hardly good the more time goes by, he will be almost likeable in a a year if he has laid low for a while and the economy has fallen to bits. The scenario is unlikely but it’s the coalitions best bit, Turnbull might be a more talented politician but he doesn’t have the record to stand on.
But as I mentioned before they’d be much better running a two term strategy. Hockey is the most electable candidate left,( there’s nowayTurnbull will last five years as leader) Best leave Hockey on ice for a while.
Please leave immediately.
That says more about the Liberals then thousands of pages of analysis ever could.
Hockey and Workchoices, that looks electable. It would cancel out any concerns over unemployment and people ‘not being able to make ends meet’.
Tory leaders on a whole don’t seem to be too clever,
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/nz-pm-john-key-breaks-his-arm-20090118-7juk.html
Avuncular Joe and Wonder Kev had the same media gig, Joe seemed to turn feral at some point, oh that’s right he was handed the Work Choices Gig.
Imagine if Joe had told Howard to shove it, kept his cuddly persona. He could have been the next Kimbo Beazley.
And what exactly is Hockey’s weakness Oz? Urban, socially progessive, quick witted type, relaxed, genial style of dialogue when he does press meetings, capable of reading an audience, having an ethnic background will go down well with progressive middle ground voters. Biggest problem he’d face I think would be is not coming across as boisterous in parliament which he has a habit of, and keeping the Minchin gang in check. True he’d be no match for Rudd in 2010, but by 2013 the Rudd government will be getting slightly stale, a late leadership change would give Hockey a better than even chance.
njl, Ive found your dream economy.
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/mei/nov08/02.htm
Oz, AFL and the crows are my game, i even dig deep enough to be a gold card member every year, to me cricket seems to be some silly men in white wearing funny things on their legs chucking a little red ball around, sorry i’m a cricket ignoramus but there it is.
our beloved Anthony was just on telly saying his piece about the Frome election.
there is no way Hockey will be electable as leader, he’s another Beasley {and i dearly loved Kim} at least Beasley didnt have work choices weighing him down, actually the gloss has rubbed off Hockey, he’s lost his best asset the Mr. nice guy image, opposition hasnt suited him and he has been stymied from going into state politics and becoming premier, i’ve also heard from a reliable source theres probs in the Hockey household that could distract him,
Turnbull is all ego and little else, he hasnt shown much political talent so far, apparently he’s a terrible boss, hmmm wonder if Chris Kenny will end up back as a journo, best and most even handed journo here in Adelaide is Mike Smithson.
When he opens his mouth word come out – but to mere mortals they make no sense.
How about this gem?
“”If you really want to provide an incentive for people to continue to work, to continue to invest to take risks then reducing taxes is the way to do it.”
Yes Joe, but the people who are losing their jobs have no money to invest. The only risk they face is losing their possesions.
Or is this the new Liberal Policy to reduce Company Tax???
Beazley lead the party under the most unfavourable conditions, He was every bit as competent as Kevin, he just didn’t ride a honeymoon period against an old, unpopular government.
As for Turnbull, I don’t know what your idea of political talent is, For my money he is the most talented member of the liberal party I’ve ever seen. Supposedly Harold Holt was very good but he’s a bit before my time.
Ruawake, that kind of things matter about as much as the colour of Stephen Smith’s tie and boy does he take care to wear his shiny gold ones when it’s an important occasion. Find Joe Hockey talking about the things that batter or suggesting the coalition should ease the squeeze and I’ll come round to see it your way.
njl, chart 2.2 doesn’t quite support your doom and gloom scenario too well, does it?
http://www.budget.gov.au/2008-09/content/myefo/html/part_2.htm
i honestly dont believe the next prime minister for the libs is in parliament yet, they need to get rid of all the dead wood swinging in the breeze and bring in new blood, too many with even the smidgen of talent are tainted by being Howard’s lackeys and those with any real talent Howard got rid of early in the piece, the rest are just hacks hanging on for their pensions, some have thrown Pyne’s hat into the ring but i think thats pure desperation, i know he fancies himself but he’s too much of a mummies boy and it shows.
Steve I must have missed the part where I said I anticipated an economic meltdown. I do recall suggesting that should it happen late in Rudd’s first term Costello would have an even money chance of taking government if he could get a late leadership change but that’s quite a different thing all together.
Turnbull is not a politician – if he was he would have beaten Nelson as was widely expected. But just as he is about to be annointed as the chosen one – he shoots his mouth off and scares 5 kinds of crap out of Nick’s crew.
If he had just shut up for a couple of days it was his on a plate.
He is good when asking the questions but horrific when caught off message. He just waffles and puts on the cheesy grin.
Abbott just stays on message – no matter the question he just rams his point. Malcolm is a tad too polite.
NJL
“I know I am a bit of a smug, pompous, lofty, know it all. I enjoy it, Some will just ignore it, they’re welcome to, some will react a tad reprovingly”
“some will react a tad reprovingly” ,
you ar exagerating there , i wuld hav said
“some will react LESS than SLIGHTLY a tad reprovingly”
Now you can reclaim some kudos by being a cricket lover like Judith “it reminds me of just how much i loathe cricket” , geez Judith I spilt me coffee when i read that I went to th day niter Friday nite at th G , and its all etiqete and chardy culture and great batsmenship , and th more you drink th more you like it
Not sure if this has been posted yet…
Sartor tests the water as tide turns on Rees
My inner cynic now expects Rees won’t be NSW premier any more by the end of the month.
Yes, very clever njl, I don’t anticipate an economic meltdown but should it happen… is anticipating an economic meltdown as far as I can see.
Ruawake, it is a big mistake to your project your own views onto the electorate. You may be receptive to Abbotts style, but he is a polarising figure and one prone to saying dumb tinhs. Being able to smile politely and waffle is actually a good skill if there is nothing good can come out of interview.
Steve you are reading words that are not there I am afraid. I don’t expect an economic meltdown, I never said I expected one. Should Tony Abbott become leader I expect North Sydney to turn marginal. But that doesn’t mean I expect Tony Abbott to become leader.
njl
Just calling it as I See it. Politicians go on the telly for two reasons – to promote themselves or to promote party policy. Malcolm gets lost in the policy bit, that is why he is not a politician.
Actually Ron if I was to do my less than slightly thing I would have said. Some will be less than slightly gruntled about it.
but that wuld hav been less than slightly acurate …as if your econamic meltdown coment mixed with gruntled
sorry Ron i hope you didnt burn yourself re the coffee, but there it is, no-one can be perfect and unfortunately i loathe cricket AND tennis, gimme lots of beefcake running around in shorts flexing their manly muscles any day, now aussie rules thats a real game.
back to politics, the real best game in town, Malcolm just wont jell, he’s too involved with Malcolm, he tries to emulate Rudd’s humanitarian streak just as Nelson did and it just comes across as cynical opportunism, Rudd has been volunteering at shelters for years, he sent his cabinet out as their first job to look at shelters and write about what they’d seen, he really cares, now Turnbull gave his xmas message televised from you’ve guessed it a shelter, there he was busily packing lunches for the journos to see, it goes down as flat as Nelson’s sitting in the gutter did, nobody but nobody would believe silvertail Turnbull spends his spare time in shelters helping his fellow man, the closest he’d get is rubbing shoulders with the cream of society at a well attended charity ball.
So the whole winning strategy of the Liberal Party is constructed on an economic meltdown that nobody anticipates?
njl
As a fellow seemingly uncommitted elitist progressive, I was quite hopeful that Turnbull would prove to be a good Opposition leader as he shares some of my values, probably as much as Rudd. But he’s been a big disappointment.
To be a success as a prominent politician, you have to be either really good at policy or politics (or even both like Rudd, as much as I don’t like to say it). Turnbull has no policies except whingeing at minor points about Labor, and he’s inept at politicking. He won’t make the next election IMHO.
It’s sad that Howard killed off Hockey by shafting him with SerfChoices after Andrews completely stuffed it up as he would have been my pick.
Hey Diog
I agree – you charming and erudite person.
And before anyone sticks up for Turnbull by saying it’s not the Opposition’s job in it’s first year to come up with policies, I will remind you what a pathetic Environment Minister Turnbull was. What were his policies for Climate Change?
njl @ 132
When you say of Mr Turnbull that “… For my money he is the most talented member of the liberal party I’ve ever seen.”, are you offering that as a comment on the liberal party, or on yourself?
oh dear diog
just when you show ‘progress’ , there’s a relapse
Diogenes
#148
Diog “njl As a fellow seemingly uncommitted elitist progressive, I was quite hopeful that Turnbull would prove to be a good Opposition leader as he shares some of MY values”
“seemingly uncommitted elitist progressive’ , see…one minute you ar UNcommitted to this elitist progressive stuff , and th next minut you ar over zealously committed this elitist progressive cause i just don’t how th elitist proressive bretheran keep up with you
“as he (Turnbul) shares some of MY values” And with trepodation i ask , which ones
Dio, Turnbull’s whole policy as minister was to give $10 mill. to some pie in the sky plan to seed for rain, mind it wasnt all lost, he got a chunk of it back as donations for his election chest.
ruawake
I thought of you the other day. I made the mistake of buying a book for my wife, who seems to have become a militant, Marxist, post-modernist zealot recently. The book is “The Secret History of the War on Cancer”.
It describes how the economic interests of Big Pharm and Big Industry have controlled cancer policy by persuading the medical and political establishments to concentrate their efforts on treatment rather than prevention. It argues that many cancers are preventable but carcinogens made by industry are covered up with deliberately flawed studies.
I’m really copping a blast after each chapter. In the last one, the medical profession colluded with Big Smoke to support them on the Cancer Council in saying cigarettes don’t cause cancer.
Dio, i meant to tell you, Cherie has settled interstate just before the sht hits the fan here and she’s found a good specialist over there, she left in the afternoon, right after we did the last tv interview, i think it goes to air next month on ch9, at least they’re sending a cd of it to us beforehand and the police were there supervising the whole thing so it shouldnt be too bad.
Ron
The “seemingly uncommitted” comment referred to the fact that we would vote for anyone Labor, Lib or Green depending on policy.
“as he (Turnbul) shares some of MY values”
We both hate John Howard and like Tim Flannery.
Steve, I’ve said, once, twice, three times heck I’ve lost count, it’s very very unlikely that the liberals will win the next election. Theres a bigger chance of the economy turning pear shaped then the coalition taking government in 2010. ‘
Diogenes, my first impression of you is that you’re smarter than the average bear. The notion that Turnbull isn’t good at politics I think is quite unfair to be honest. His approval rating in opposition is higher than Nelson, Crean or Howard’s ever was, and for the large part he has done better than Beazley. His timing is horrible, why he wanted to lead the party straight after Howard is a mystery to me. When oppositions release policies a while out from an election they either get absorbed into government policies or they are picked to pieces as being impractical and dangerous, and nobody can prove to the contrary because they aren’t implemented yet.
As for his spell in government, Kyoto and the like were not ministerial decisions even if he agreed with them, they would have been cabinet decisions, it fell to Turnbull to sell them in public. But I am for the large part disenchanted in politics, I don’t believe Rudd or Turnbull or Nelson believe much of it, it’s just a case of being able to read the electorate and read which emotion/demeanour is appropriate and perform that emotion/demeanour convicingly. Being quickwitted and articulate also helps when inevitably from time to time they are caught out not really knowing what they’re talking about.
As for Hockey, he’ll move on, people have short memories. Who was the shadow foreign minister when Labor launched that ridiculous troops home by christmas campaign?
Pendant, whilst it’s fair to say I reckon I’ve seen more talented labor politicians than liberal ones, Turnbull ranks up there with the best from both worlds.
njl, i think your wrong about peoples short memories re Hockey, work choices threatened their working security and therefore their financial well being and he wont be able to throw that off, even now people are comparing how much worse off they would be with work choices as things tighten up, people know Rudd isnt responsible for job losses in the meltdown but blind freddy can work out how much worse off they’d have been and Howard’s government policy would have been to blame, Howard is gone but they’ll remember Hockey was in charge of selling it to them.
Judith, Selling it, exactly, not implementing them. Admittedly i never got put on one, but I think workchoices were exagerated as the cause for Howard’s loss. although not many liked them, very few who were going to vote liberal changed their vote because of workchoices, even fewer will continue to vote against the coalition with the policy dead and buried.
diog
#156
“Ron The “seemingly uncommitted” comment referred to the fact that we (th seemingly uncommitted elitist progressive) , would vote for anyone Labor, Lib or Green depending on policy. ”
And has there been a time in past when such extra extra-ordinary Liberal policy annoused has caused you to actualy vote for th Liberals !…..and does mrs diog a commited “greenie” reely know of your Liberel party treasons
njl
Approval ratings don’t mean much if they don’t translate into votes. 60-40 is dismal. And he could be accused of not over-performing as Environment Minister.
Where exactly is the evidence for this often trotted out line “Turnbull is a brilliant politician”?
He was a bland and pointless environment minister, he undermined the Liberal Party immediately after the election when they needed to pull together, he barely scraped through a leadership contest against the least popular leader in history, his poll numbers are woeful, he has zero policies and he ended the year with a party revolt against his strategy.
Regulation for Margin Lenders announced.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24929605-5003402,00.html
Ron
I said I would vote Lib if I agreed with their policies. It just hasn’t happened yet.
Oz, don’t be a queue jumper, I’m still waiting for evidence of an economic meltdown being more likely than the Liberals winning in 2010. The last bit I can understand but not the first.
well according to mrs diog , you ar not going to either ….and hav her…..and mrs diog says she is always right
njl, too many who had their fingers in the pie are still in the libs line up, dont kid yourself that the impact work choices had isnt huge, just about everyone knows someone who was affected by it, one of my grandies working part time at spotlight after school was affected, she was stashing her money for uni, she’s now started working elsewhere fulltime for this year as a gap year and building on her savings for uni next year, she has wanted to do pediatrics since she was about 14, in fact i know of quite a few who were affected, comes from being one of the great unwashed.
njl
I thought you’d been knocked down enough today , and let you go ….but geez this takes th cake
njl #160 “but I think workchoices were exagerated as the cause for Howard’s loss. although not many liked them, VERY FEW who were going to vote liberal changed their vote because of workchoices….”
but you’ve made all th 2004 Liberal voters who switched to Labor Rudd in 2007 disappear……when did they go to , they changed from howard to rudd for many reasonss….however polls show th overwhelming no swung to Labor ‘primarily’ ovar W/C …..AS SOON AS th ACTU add campagn started over W/C , [polls swung from Howard to labor…in fact too Besley Labor , even before Rudd took over (Rudd simply comnsolidated & then preserved that swing)
Now thingys like iaraq , Haneef , Hicks , NT intervation , CC Kyoto , evolution revolution , ’sorry’ , Rudds hospital promises , ‘its time’ bllah blah had an efect contributors but th albertross that destroyed howards ‘trust’ in battlers swingers and his lagitimacy was W/C , and other factors reinforsed voters already made decision to switch aroo to labor
and i got some bad news for my friend dyno , th ronilpolitc revolution since occured…lots of lib voters stuck with Howard reluctantly as an incumant & fear of interst rates increasing like Howard scared in campaign in spite of W/C etc anf tink they regret it & see th non ancumbant Rudd now in charge , thinkgs OK and feel comfortable in th ‘change’ …and thats where some causes of big poll lead is today
steve @ 166,
What makes you think there won’t be a recession?
Or have I misunderstood your position?
Or are we playing word games with the term “meltdown”?
“th ronilpolitc revolution since occured”
What happens next Ron? Do I lose my head? Where do I queue for the unkindest cut of all?
60-40 against the most popular politician in the modern era barely a year into his first term. OZ if you really want to know why I rate Turnbull, he is articulate, he has a controlled, clipped way of speaking that creates a sense of stability and control. His views seem inline with where the electorate is, that says to me he knows how to read it, he manages to maintain a kind of civility when he gets angry and attacking yet manages to still seem concerned and passionate, he lectures as if he is horrified and dissapointed that the government would do such a thing. He has a nice face for camera, he knows how to dress and he knows where to look during interviews. Turnbull can recognise when his policy on something won’t be as popular as the governments and knows to duck, dodge and waffle rather than take the issue on headfirst when it is raised by an interviewer or the like, he can fake sincerity, he is not old and feeble nor young and erratic. He has nice teeth, good posture, and combs his hair nicely. He has those nice watermelon ties, he went to Oxford, he is a known republican campaigner, more so then labor who like to take the republican tag. He is rich so he can have expensive, expansive campaigns. I’ll give you the rest another time.
Oz
I agree Turnbull is a intelligent man but he has an impossible job. If Minchin open his mouth to resign instead of opening it to undermine Turnbull, the party and Turnbull may have some future.
Stephen, the economic meltdown isn’t likely, but seeing as a liberal win is almost conditional upon it their winning is even less likely. Ofcourse thats just me, Perhaps if you took an opinion poll people would say that it is far more likely Turnbull will be the next pm then we will go into recession.
dyno, whatever you call it voters will compare it with whats going on overseas and we’ll compare well, even the most pessimistic forecasters are saying we’ll get a soft landing compared to other countries, in fact few think we’ll even get as far as a recession, Rudd seems to be pushing all the right buttons and doing everything to keep us afloat, most seem to think things will bottom out after midyear and then head up by the end of the year–just in time for the election year.
Dyno
“th ronilpolitc revolution since occured”
What happens next Ron? Do I lose my head? Where do I queue for the unkindest cut of all?
Dyno , you can rely on me to giv you th kindest cut , as i’m a softiea t hart
I was explaining my theory of th extra ordinary poll diferences bwtween th Partys , and that clearly represents a swaggs of 2007 Howard Liberal voters….now happy with rudd for many reasons , one as said incumancy helped Howward as it did Keating & all predeccors (now rudd is incumbant and things fairly ok) , second interst rates were threatened in 2007 campaign to increase (they’ve droped) , third Rudd has made some credible polular decisions ..over GFC , sorry , apology etc and publicly seems in charge & unnerved & feel these ar ex 2007 liberal voters saying to Neewspoll I’ll vote rudd next time…..now we gonna get a recesion , unemployment will rise but rates will drop further , will voters blame rudd or GFC …suspect GFC is understood by voters to be world wide as its on TV every nite And as for “Ron Do I lose my head” ….nah you’re a ‘liberal’…only beheading is four th ‘conservatives’…as you wait for cycle to swing as it always done eventualys but feel Dyno that rudds got 2 terms pretty well in his pocket
njl,
I don’t doubt Turnbull has ability and I also suspect his views are, if not always the same as most people, at least tolerable to many. He’s also not tarred in any significant way with the WorkChoices brush, at a personal level.
I don’t know that he’s a very good politician, though. He’s ok at making arguments, but not so good at choosing which arguments to make. The classic example to date was the way he handled the GFC – spent weeks going on about the chronology of the discussions and e-mails between Rudd, Swan, Henry and Stevens. All well and good, but there were bigger issues at stake (Was the Government doing a reasonable job? Had the Govt done right thing with the bank guarantee? What should the Govt do next?) – and everyone in the community knew it.
The problem is probably lack of experience, but time is not on his side. They’ll get rid of him around mid-2009 unless things (ie the polls) improve dramatically.
As for Hockey, in my view he’s a special to be Opposition Leader at the 2013 election. How he will fare will depend much more on how Labor has gone than on what he does himself.
Judith I hope you don’t mind your comment is more or less demanding the same thing from me as Ron’s so I hope I’ll satisfy your qualm in my answer to Ron’s. Roughly 47% of people voted for Mark Latham at the 2004 election and roughly 52 voted for Kevin. You are talking about a whole 5 percent of Australians who changed their vote. A significant swing I know, but Latham was an exceptionally incompetent opposition. If we instead compare the swing to 2001 when labor mounted a decent opposition leader labor won roughly 49% of the vote making it a whole 3% of Australians who changed their mind.
If you are to compare the events in Rudd’s favour, or no longer in Howards favour between the two elections you not only have workchoices but you have
-Fresh, new faced leadership
-No tampa/crisis, infact with the facts now known Tampa hurts Howard instead of helps him.
-Climate change becomes more of an issue
-Iraq War has become unpopular
-Haneef
-Vanstones being forced out
-the anti terror backbench revolt
-The Barnaby revolt
I don’t believe all those issues tallied up to less than one percent, so at worst Hockey is conceding a two percent headstart overworkchoices, and that is talking six years of liberals saying that workchoices are dead and burried. Workchoices in my opinion was an issue that absolutely enraged people…who would never vote liberal in their life.
Dyno i think you are very right. I reject those who say Turnbull is a bad politician because I think he has alot of political talents but yes he does show inexperience a fair bit and I also agree that he won’t make it through the year, not with a caucaus that finds him too progressive and a government whose supremely popular.
Ron, perhaps your nickname should be “Robespierre” – anyway I’ll rely on a good word from you when the crunch comes!
Judith, I’m pretty sure we will have a recession, I realise we live in an era of unprecedented events but it would be truly unexpected for a commodity exporter like Australia to avoid recession when our trading partners have slowed down so much (even China, where growth is still well and truly positive, has slowed massively).
Having said that, your conclusion may well be right. Most people (including me, may I say) think the Govt has done a resaonable job on the GFC. If that keeps happening then there is no reason why a popular first-term PM ought to be punished too much, for what is basically a global phenomenon with local consequences. It’s only if he stuffs up (or starts being a smart-arse about the recession like Keating was) that he’ll have big electoral problems.
Dyno
“Ron, perhaps your nickname should be “Robespierre” – anyway I’ll rely on a good word from you when the crunch comes!”
robespierre …prsume typo eror and you meant ronspierre
njl
“Workchoices in my opinion was an issue that absolutely enraged people…who would never vote liberal in their life.”
Labor got a 5.8% swing in 2007 on primary votes , and is presently sitting on a furthar 6% swing , thats almost 12% swing TO Labor in Jan 2009 vs 2004 electon …these AR people who statisticaly DID vote Liberal and now do not wish to on PRIMARY votes One can not ignore such masive movements
Now th Bigest politcal issue soince 2004 was W/C , so to sugest th bigest issue has not primarily caused this massive swing defys not only poling , but from ACTUAL polling from ACTU adds reflecting th swing …and which started from those adds…so my vieww is suportd by actual stats ie polls
As for future , tink W/C is a generatonal chain Libs will carry four a few electons , and any existing leader (who was also a senior Howard cabinet minister up to 2007 ) will always wear th pain electoraly …and fataly …including Joe Hockey (although perhaps his afiable personality may frankley diminish that abit (but that also becomes a Besley death wish attritbute) which is why I reely tink a Hunt type is liberals future
No one’s denying he can speak fluently and eloquently. However, that’s a million miles away from being a good politician.
What are you basing that on? The only way of measuring how “in-line” his views are with the electorate would be the Liberal Party’s primary and his own approval ratings, which are, like I already said, woeful.
Ok look. Stephen Long, the ABC’s economic correspondent is a sharp dresser, eloquent and works the camera well. That does make him out to be a brilliant politician. You’re confusing media savvy with politics. The rest of your post is superficial nonsense. On your benchmark, James Bond is a brilliant politician.
Politics is not fancy suits, a Rhodes scholarship and an posh accent. Politics is what goes on in the party room and in the public sphere. In both those areas, you’ve failed to highlight anything that reflects well upon him, let alone anything that makes him out to be a formidable politician.
On the other hand, the fact that he needed to conduct a massive branch stack just to get pre-selection, only extremely narrowly won the leadership of the Liberal Party after the pathetic, incompetent and deeply unpopular Nelson, massively undermined confidence in the party during Nelson’s leadership, is polling very lowly in terms of Liberal primary, 2PP and personal approval and has come up with zero policies all demonstrate he’s a pretty rubbish politician and the BS the Murdoch press was spinning us about “Here cometh the saviour” was shown to be exactly that – BS.
Ron the biggest factor in terms of the swing from 04-07 was Mark Latham, the second biggest was Laurrie Ferguson. Those two were the most incompetent, polarising duo that took the leadership of a major party, they account for more than half of that swing and anyone who thinks Latham could have won in 07 had he stayed on and had workchoices up his sleave is a clearly a very ordinary person. Still a bigger factor then workchoices was that the Howard government, Costello treasury and Downer foreign office were now three years older and Rudd was fresh faced and new.
People said Beazley was too connected with Keating to have a chance against the supercool new Howard government, two years later he was winning the popular vote, hows that for your Australians with long memories?
Oz, I promise you I will get to your thing tommorow, but it requires more than a trigger reaction response like Ron’s nonsense does and I am tired. But you will have your response.
Goodnight
one thing sticks in my mind, when Turnbull was voted in as leader i happened to glance at Albrechsons column for the first and last time, she was gushingly lauding Turnbull and as she wrote ” ladies and gentlemen now it’s game on”, well Ms. Albrechson i’m still waiting and i cant help but wonder if she regrets that adoring article and that forcasting phrase.
Yes Judith, that sticks out in my mind too, the “game on” phrase she used. I actually agreed with her to some extent, thinking that Turnbull was far better leadership material than Nelson was. I still think he is, but it’s a whole different ballgame in opposition, and Turnbull has learnt that lesson time and time again since coming to the top Liberal job, not to mention he is up against a very formidable opponent in Kevin.
The Liberal Party has a serious political problem. After a year of talking down the economy at every opportunity, nobody takes any notice of a word they utter.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24928862-3102,00.html
Meanwhile the OO pushes the doom and gloom line. Hanrahan rules at the Australian.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24929812-2702,00.html
Here’s Peter Martin’s take on it.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/01/recession-access-economics-breaks-dam.html
Here is a rather more serious piece of bad news from someone more credible than Mr Turnbull – Access Economics now forecasts a recession this year.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/swan-holds-back-on-recession-call-20090119-7k3x.html
Swan gave a sensible answer; neither denial nor pessimism. The good news is that we can recover by the end of the year if the govt. sticks to current investment plans and goes with a second stimulus if needed. That would still see the govt well placed for a 2010 election, especially if the coalition continues to have nothing constructive to say.
Steve – snap! I didn’t realise we were talking the same story. I agree with you; Peter Martin’s assessment of the story was fair.
I’ve got a dumb question.
Telstra is screwing up telecommunications in Oz because Howie let them keep everything when they were privatised, instead of splitting the company with the Government keeping the infrastructure and selling off the retail business.
Could Rudd buy Telstra back and sell off the retail business
Is there a precedent for a Government to launch a hostile takeover of a company
Dio
It could be nationalised. Logically I think you propose a good solution but I doubt we have the cash to do it now – Telstra is probably still worth over $40 Bn to buy back, and that is double the value of the entire proposed stimulus package. Its frustrating – when Howard had the cash he didn’t fix Telstra and now we have a government with the political will the surplus is gone.
Giving the broadband roll out contract to competitors is the best we could do, and that is sensibly the way Conroy decided to go.
It doesn’t make sense to nationalise it.
For half the cost of nationalising, the government could implement FTTH to 98% to the Australia population ensuring a publicly owned, open access fibre network capable of speeds of 100Mbps up and down and scalable to 1Gbps as well as allowing triple play (voice, internet and television).
That would actually force Telstra to compete on a much more competitive playing field and give Australian’s access to far better services. Telstra has admitted recently that it has had the capability to deliver faster services to more Australian’s for years now but it had no motivation to deploy that capability.
How much of Telstra’s $40B value is from it’s retail and how much is the infrastructure? I thought it was roughly 50:50. That would make it $20B to buy back the infrastructure.
Just when I thought their ABC had improved lately they come up with this false statement reporting on the following article. (I guess it’s expected, new parlimentry year starting and all)
ABC says
here’s what the article actually said “a lot of things being buggered because of global economy ” they didn’t state that the budget was buggered, but that of course doesn’t allow ABC to insinuate that it is all Rudd and Swannies fault whereas saying key forecasters say the budget is buggered makes it sound like it is only an australian problem and the GFC is conveniently ignored in their highlighted bold 1st paragraph that a lot of people would read and be influenced by without going on to read the whole story.
from article
Notice they didn’t dwell on this part, wonder why/ (sarcasticly said)
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/19/2468672.htm
Thanks Vera, I saw a similarly worded story on Sky Noos this morning and was wondering what the real story was.
BTW, do you have a link to the report?
Thanks again.
Oz the polling of the liberal party is not a reflection on the he who runs it at the moment. It reflects a new government, that is well organised, that has a charismatic man at the helm and that has just replaced a 12 year old government which was extremely stale. The Rudd government has been very careful and meticulous lest they upset the electorate and left the opposition with very little space to move.
What possible reason could there be for the people who voted Kevin in to now change their mind and reject him? The only people I can imagine who would do that are greenies and their votes will just filter back to the Labor party anyway except perhaps in the division of Melbourne, but Turnbull gets none of that for himself. So I think such polls are quite uninformative and that it is far more useful to look at issue polls, like the republic, and see where Turnbull stands. For example, on the republic I seem to recall although there were strong arguements on both sides at the moment, there was an overwhelming support to become a republic after Elizabeth is succeded, and what is Turnbull’s position? To push the referendum once the next monarch comes in.
The Australian people just voted overwhelmingly in favour of more progressive government, the liberal party is overwhelmingly more conservative than that and Turnbull’s position depends heavilly on placating the Minchin gang. He may well like to outflank Rudd on the left over climate change, republic, reconcilliation and gay rights but with the dry liberals holding as many party machine votes as they do he would pay dearly if he tried.
So to be a good liberal party leader at the moment I’m afraid means you can play the press, to be able to present yourself well. The shadow cabinet is in charge of policies he can’t force it’s hand he’s only been in parliament five years and he joined the minority faction. So dressing well, speaking nicely, attacking tactfully, choosing the right demeanour and performing it convincingly are incredibly important for an opposition leader. However despite the many skills of Mr Turnbull, just like the many skills of Mr Beazley, a new government generally enjoys quite a bit of political capital straight off the bat and the Rudd government is a very good government at that. If by some miracle Turnbull manages to make it to the next election he’ll probably reduce Rudd’s majority ever so slightly, but Rudd is still far too new and far too popular for Turnbull to make such inroads and by the time Rudd is old enough, I suspect the party will be sick of waiting and ask someone else to deliver the results.
all the news reports are saying the budget is buggered, Access Economics should get a whopping rap for using such inflammatory language, they even said their forecasting would probably make things worse, thers ways of saying things and ways of saying things, AE chose the dramatic punch ‘em in the face way.
Flaneur Abc link
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/19/2468672.htm
This is worth a read too, says NSW could be in for an ‘economic revival’
also after concentrating on “budget buggered” storyline this part of Access Economics report has also been ignored. saying growth will go from .8% this year to 2.4% next year. That doesn’t sound like the sky is falling to me?
sorry forgot link
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/nsw-set-to-recover-ahead-of-the-pack/2009/01/18/1232213448316.html
I really hope you are not referring to Kevin Rudd. The Ruddster is hardly over-endowed with charisma.
Judith I wonder about AE, NSW has had growth in the last 2 quarters yet AE say NSW are in recession?
Vera when all is said and done AE is really just another think tank yelling to have it’s predictions heard over the other shouters, Talc didnt take long to get in on the act, when will he learn the government will do whatever it has to –as they’ve done so far, with or without his permission.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/01/19/2469012.htm
Dio, your right, in no way could Rudd be called charismatic, however he gives a sense of being a careful thinker before taking a major step and i’ll accept that safety net every time, Turnbull could at a very big stretch be called charismatic but he reminds me of a snake oil salesman.
Peter Brent once wrote an article which he discussed the theory of “charisma” and what is it that actually defines it, basically that it was a bit of a myth and that all in all it’s better just to try and steer clear of the word. Suffice to say even if Rudd lacks charisma he is likeable and there is something endearing about that combination of intellect and dagginess.
Judith Talcum hasn’t got a clue has he, he’s carping on about how bad it would be for the budget to go into deficit trying to make the most of AE’s report and the “budget buggered ” scare, but the silly bugger ignores the part where AE says (from SMH link in previous post)
where they are saying the need to spend is more important than budget deficits.
Inflation has fallen to a 3 & 1/2 year low and there is talk of a 3/4% cut in interest rates in Feb to bring rates to lowest level since 1965.
Now what party was it again that we were told inerest rates would always be lower under
The Reserve Bank of Australia has today released, “The Level and Distribution of Recent Mining Sector Revenue.” Is it a volume of doom and Gloom?
http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/Bulletin/bu_jan09/Pdf/bu_0109_2.pdf
SOCRATES
#189
“Here is a rather more serious piece of bad news from someone more credible than Mr Turnbull – Access Economics now forecasts a recession this year.”
you igniored greek philospher ronactes forcasting many months ago here !…. a tech recesion , a deficit , unemploymetn 6-75 , interst rates 3% to 3.5% , lower inflation but instead rely on “AFTER th event” consevative tink tanks Always believed things ar worse than they appeer & GFC winds were here & not seen , but will soon appear nasty more by days & also did say US GFC worser than being miss reportd by finance experts , hav said thought it was a prime problam not a sub prime any more …but actually I hope I’ve been totally wrong here as no pleasures in seeing dooms hiting oz …I can only forgiv you for your sins of lacks of greek faiths , but thousonds wouldn’t
G’day VERA
#206
Don’t worry Vera , a “deficit” is just a $ figure flick of a pen on a piece of paper
…but its actualy Govt monies as you know spent on infra etc to help reverse growth declines & lower worser then otherwise unemployemnt and Rudd knows thats more important , than some figure man saying budget is a minus instead of a + …….anyways th + bit will come finaly with growth etc in futures , but we hav to look after people & business today , so Talcum just doesn’t reely understand that does he , or if he does he’s a hypocrate)
the average voter can identify with Rudd, he’s a family man who obviously adores his wife and kids and isnt too proud to show it publically, he treats his wife’s intellect as high as his own and makes her and the kids part of a family forum to discuss moves that affect them all, the confab sitting on the bed with a cuppa and the family says it all, before the Lodge even though they could afford that Sydney bayside mansion they lived in the very ordinary suburban house they’d lived in for years, not even an up market suburb, the cat and the dog are treated as important members of the family and came to the lodge with them, Therese is obviously her own person who dresses and acts as she always has–no front or sudden poshness there, no one would ever name her Hyacinth, the kids are unspoilt and encouraged to be independant and make their own way in life–no spoilt rich kid syndrome here, in fact unless you knew, you would never take them for a family of muti millionaires in their own right, Rudd’s kindness to others less well endowed is well documented, from giving bycles to the local charity to getting down and dirty himself in homeless centres, yup i think the average worker will take all of this instead of charisma.
Steve (from your link)
This doesn’t sound to gloomy to me
Vera, and if the Brisbane Times took notice of the RBA instead of the doomsdayers at AE, we wouldn’t be fed this nonsense.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2009/01/19/1232213491968.html
Hello Ron
Talcum’s a dill for sure, I have confidence in kev and swannie to steer us through trouble waters.
Words of wisdom from the master.
But you can have a pretty good guess.
212 This was the Brisbane Times story I meant to link to.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/state-to-go-from-feast-to-famine/2009/01/19/1232213503327.html
So Steve if all this forecasted doom and gloom dosen’t happen that’ll make Swannie the worlds greastest treasurer won’t it?
uhhh Vera i hate to seem ignorant but just what is the key to deciphering Ron’s postings? i cant make head nor tail of them and yet i think i might be missing something, i dearly love cryptic crosswords but this is an obvious failing of mine, perhaps if i have the key code i could do better.
Judith, Ron’s my favorite PB (love him), he grows on you and with time you will breeze through his posts no trouble at all
here’s a quick translation of 209 bit written to me
The deficit is just a number but it’s real money which will be spent by the Govt to increase growth and jobs which Rudd knows is more important than whether there is a surplus or deficit. The surplus will come in the future but we need to spend to look after people and businesses now. And Talcum is either stupid or a hypocrit.
Did i get that right Ron
Ron 209
If only I knew how to decipher your wise words Ron; with your cryptic phrasing you could be the Oracle of Delphi! (or is that the Ronacle of Crikey?)
Seriously I shared your views on the US and said the same over a year ago. However I did think Australia would hold up better on the back of Chinese domestic demand. Looks like I was wrong as China has gone down very fast. Anyway its clearly time for us to do some pump priming here now – to hell with the free-market-solves-everything nutters. I agree we need some government intervention to get things moving, and thankfully Swan and Rudd realise that. It will take about six-12 months though, so better get moving….
Also agree on the deficit; it is an issue for finance markets, but not so much the rest of us. Overall the Australian government has a low net debt (as Costello kept boasting) so now we can afford to spend and should do so.
Well translated Vera. You are the Oracle’s priestess
Judith, the position maketh the man. George Bush is a down to earth kind of fella who treats his dog like his youngest child. Now aside from the family man narrative, he doesn’t have JFK captivating charisma but gee whiz golly there is that certain something that makes him so likeable and we all grin cheesilly whe he makes a daggy joke on sunrise and listened that little bit eagerly when he joined Jim Maxwell and Kerry O’keefe at the cricket and that isn’t a measure of his character but his natural demeanour.
But who knows what charisma really is, Bob Hawke, Tony Blair, Bill Clinton and Junichiro Koizumi were all said to be charismatic, whilst nobody dared accuse Gordon Brown, Simon Crean or Vladmir Putin of something so shallow so perhaps it’s all about having tall white hair and Kevin could be mistaken as charismatic for having white hair but isn’t the real deal because it’s too flat. Give them a few more years and both Stephen Smith and Brendan Nelson might become very charismatic.
“so perhaps it’s all about having tall white hair ”
No njl – thats Statesmanship! Even Hillary has it. No wonder the powers that be far Barack upturning the old order.
Vera
“Did i get that right Ron”
perfectly , as you always do Vera…and also , for your day …this
.
actualy i missed mentionin another Trunbull alternitive , ‘his plan’ he’s up to thats not reel politcal clever I reckon he is gearing up for a typical 2010 liberal econamic philosophy attack against labor of no deficits to attack our Kevin on , because Lib or reely consevative philosophy doesn’t believe in deficits He’s gonna say in 2010 if he is still th chief , we and our wizzards Cossie & co didn’t hav deficits cause we were good econamic managers
Problam with there argument of no deficits is usualy its said/used with saying “oh we had lower interst rates as well”as thats th ‘rationalist’ thoery …. but turnbull won’t be able to say that cause he finished with high comparotive interst rates =to when Keating left actualy , VS Rudd’s interst rates which ar lower again (reely due to th GFC) So econamicly th Liberal finance attack is going to be a Liberal no deficts point scoring electon campaign , but without th lower interst cloths cause rudds got those lower inteest cloths now….so its gonna look theoretical nonsense….
Of course thats before turnbul is asked some reel world questons about actual effects of his plans on reel oz business and oz peoples of his proposal to hav no deficit …like malcolm , which Govt services ar you gonna cut to reduce th deficit…waffle waffle , will he then go That why Turnbull with little experiense makes politcal miscalls , wrong attack for th GFC times
Ron 222
Agree with you 100%. The other half of that low-deficits equation is that the Libs allowed the private sector to borrow very heavily, with a debt fuelled binge of company takeovers. No new business was created – just an asset price bubble and a lot of paper profits for Turnbulls former mates that we now realise were fiction. The reason why we have to prop up private banks with public cash guarantees now is that the private businesses have too much debt and nobody wants to loan to them.
“so perhaps it’s all about having tall white hair ”
Don King!
yes socrates you ar right about other 1/2 bit ….actualy there’s a nother 1/2 of a 1/2 as well maybe , and thats th ’surplus’ was ’spent’ on consumton which encoraged consumer highar cr card debt , whereas those bickes should hav been instead flowed to nation poroductive capacity intrastuctures blah , and worse that is still needed by oz Country , and we hav les money now To be fair , will consede about 25 bill was put in th kitty in future type funds…and will be genorous there & not tink Cossie didn’t know what to do with it …like coudn’t giv even more tax cuts & fuel over demand when capacitys were stretchd and higher inflaton efects although thats what he’s prev doned to econamy
Also you bit nails there with business debt and banks not wishing to borow Of course then one has reverse nasty thats devoloped that few too scared to say…we hav our 2nd bigest mining and exporter our come to Rio , now they hav over 40 bill in debt , want to sell quality comodity assets to get debt down as interst is gonna hurt earnings etc…but word wise finding troublwe finding buyers … and there’s a long lead timings bettween commodities demand drops and th Coles supermarket , and unemployomnt etc
You have to wonder how much time and money that Access Economics is paying its spin doctors to come up with the phrase the “budget is buggered”. You can just imagine AE saying to the spin doctors: “come on guys, we need a phrase that the Einsteins of the MSM can understand and use as a sound bite. It’s OK if it is meaningless”. Classic.
njl back at 170. No offence, but generally a load of rubbish.
Ok the 2pp is a zero sum game, but we’re talking about Turnbull the politician. And certainly a leader’s own approval ratings are one of the ways of measuring his success in politics, and his are pathetic.
The rest of your post describes your hope in Turnbull but doesn’t show him to be a formidable politician. In fact, you concede that the Liberal Party is in a slump and there’s no reason for Australian’s to switch their vote back to them. In which case, Turnbull is currently failing as a politician.
Turnbull is still calling for tax cuts to be brought forward from July to now. I wonder when a “journalist” will ask him how much this will cost and is he prepared for the budget to go into defecit by the same amount.
I think the next “stimulus” the Govt. will introduce to be aimed at small business, this will help keep unemployment lower than anticipated plus it is good politics. Why not pinch yet another traditional Liberal demographic.
njl
#220 actual quote :
“Judith, the position maketh the man. George Bush is a down to earth kind of fella who treats his dog like his youngest child. Now aside from the family man narrative, he doesn’t have JFK captivating charisma but gee whiz golly there is that certain SOMETHING that makes him so likeable…”
njl , you stated you and Bob WERE intelectuals So I desided using tyour post to try to reely understand th intelectual mind today in all its wondarment So our first bush quote was he was ‘down to earth’ yep got that one , youi ar right fools ar “down to earth” fools …where else wuld they be …in heaven for goodness sakes Next i reads quote “who treats his dog like his youngest child” yep very necesary national security qualificaton for th Leader of th Free World (and of course you do know how he treats his youngest child i guess , or did you ‘intelectualy’ guess there )
But clearly I’ll never be an intelectual cause you reely lost me with “but gee whiz golly there is that certain SOMETHING that makes him (George Bush) so likeable…” well njl , i’ve never thought of Bush as ‘likeable” because i cann’t find that ’something’ you see in him l …..you know njl , as a non intelectual i just cann’t see Bush as ‘likeable” when he sanctoned toture , renditons , gittmo , abused judisial system , lied with intell to th US Senate to justify Iraq war killing 000’s etc etc …and so his “smiles” on TV to me ar not a likeable man at all
And finaly , i actualy was/am unrepentent critic of Obama cause he lacked some reel ‘core left policys’ & mostly still does , but I’m quite happy in futures to giv him th benefit of th doubt he’ll policy wise improve , as World needs some good results after Bush ….but conversly unlike with Obama , I wuld never ever ever giv George Bush ‘even less than slightly’ th benefit of th doubt …frankley he does not deserve it
The Marooned Howardista Treasury Officials that call themselves Access Economics have a report which is quickly unravelling.
Now the Queensland Treasurer has declared a growth of 3% – another state unlikely to follow AE’s planned path.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/business/no-recession-for-qld-fraser/2009/01/19/1232213519357.html
bluddy hell has anyone been to look at the Australian today, after all the doom and gloom all one has to decide whether to top oneself with tablets or a noose, according to them theres definately no light at the end of the tunnell, sigh i’m sooo glad i cancelled the print copy of it, i’d be spitting chips if i’d paid for that news.
Vera, i’ve tried–boy have i tried and i just cant decipher Ron’s blogs, i’m just going to have to try and get the gist of it from the following replies.
AE has just been on the 10 news and now they’re definately saying the budget is buggered, of course Talc followed with his two bits worth, he maintains tax cuts will do it instead of other stimulus, cant see how tax cuts will make the top end of town spend any more than what they already do on their caviar.
Essential is out – primaries running 50/35 for a TPP of 59/41.
Fins and Steve
I think we should be careful who we critise here. Access economics did NOT say “the budget was buggered” (that was Murdoch press) and did not criticise the current govenrment. Access have done work which was not always flattering to the previous government. They were started by treasury officials that worked under Hawke and Keating. When I think of Howardista economists, other names come to mind.
Access Economics says that South Australia will do better than other states. So NSW and Qld premiers or treasurers have said they will not be in recession. So I guess SA will not be either.
That really only leaves Vic and WA (sorry Tassie, ACT, NT but you don’t really count).
It would be ironic if WA was the only state that went into recession.
Well with Brendan’s Rorts For The Regions pork-barrelling, that may well be the case.
I love how whenever WA is mentioned Frank Calabrese pops up out of nowhere to give his local opinion.
Socrates, i just watched the 10 news and the AE guy was on and he definately said the budget was buggared, he went further to say nothing the government did would help.
Yes
I thought all the Calabrese clan were at the Yoogali Club in Griffith NSW.
But it is good to have an “expert” view on WA.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/19/2468778.htm
Thanks RU – happy not to count.
So says the WA half yearly statement, so they should just stay clear of recession too , one would suspect.
Chris Richards is definitely no Liberal mouthpiece and should not be portrayed as such. The report itself congratulates the steps the government has taken to stimulate the economy. Its prediction that the country will slip into recession is based on slowing demand from around the world, not policy errors or other domestic factors.
From that one can easily see the flaw in allowing ourselves to become addicted and dependent on digging stuff out of the ground and selling it at exorbitant precises. And we all know who to blame for that…
Anyone suggesting that revisionist history written about JWH will be more flattering is kidding themselves. Time will tell (and is telling) just how completely he buggered up the entire country. Hundreds of billions of dollars wasted. The biggest boom in this nation’s history and possibly the biggest we’ll ever have and we nothing to show for it except public services and infrastructure in decline. I don’t think we can ever forgive that.
Hey, at least the NSW economy is based on THINKING and “intellectual captial”. Not digging holes (WA and QLD) or lumberjacks (Tas).
Essential Media is broken.
28% of Australians think Howard is the best PM. 20% for Rudd. Now I’m not upset that Howard beat Rudd, not that I think Howard deserves number one, but how can Rudd possibly be the best PM after a year?
Also, 60% of Australians think they’ll be better off or the same in 12 months. The respondents to this poll were clearly all on drugs.
Low interest rates and petrol prices Oz.
By the way what are all those bulk transport ships doing of Newcastle?
Oz
” just how completely he buggered up the entire country. Hundreds of billions of dollars wasted.”
What I would like to know is who was the beneficiaries of Howards largesse.
That alone would explain the analogy of “the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer” which best describes his reign
You think more than 40% of people will be unemployed within 12 months? As rua said, interest rates still going down, petrol prices and others are down significantly, and likely to stay that way for a while. Why wouldn’t they think they’ll be better off if unemployment is only forecast to rise by a few percent or so?
Gee Ron you play the part of the simpleton so damn well at times I almost believe you are missing the point by the distance that you do. Only the first sentence of the comment was about the greater known Bush, the rest was about Kevin, I’m pretty sure Bush never made a daggy joke on sunrise or chatted a way with Jim and the Skull at the SCG. Point was that being down to earth, able to relate with the common man like Judith said Kevin could doesn’t really mean squatt considering Bush can and he is about as popular as Dr Nelson. So now that we’ve got out of the road I’m not some xenophobic, homophobic, gun loving, war fighting, laizzes faire fascist you can refrain from giving me anti Bush rhetoric if your intention was to turn me against the old duffer because the only thing that scares me more tha the idea of another four years of Bush is four years of Sarah Palin.
As for Oz, fear not I am not one to be offended by the naivety of the ordinary person. Opposition leader approval ratings Oz are the most meaningless, wastefull question that anyone will ever ask. Want to hazard a guess as to which liberal leaders clocked the highest approval ratings of all time? Lord Downer and Dr John. You wanna know whose peak approval ratings were the lowest amongst liberal party leaders? Brendan, Andrew Peacock and then none other than John Howard. Meanwhile he who had the highest approval rating of any opposition leader ever prior to Kevin must have gotten it because he wanted to ease the squeeze.
The rest of my post describes how Turnbull is making the most of a terrible situation and trying to work the unworkable. Elections are mostly about timing, I doubt any government in post war history if you don’t count Fraser has actually done anything to particularly force a change of government. They have been reasonably intelligent men staying out of trouble whilst the incumbent spends the last of their political capital, drovers dog elections to borrow a metaphor from our greatest foreign minister. If Kevin Rudd had taken over the leadership from Paul Keating in 1996 he would have had a horrid 1997, suffered terrible opinion polls and be very much regarded as hapless in the same way Dr Nelson was, although not quite to the same extent.
Essential isnt broken Oz – you making the mistake of thinking that everyone in the country is a politics junky when they aren’t.
So 1/3rd of the 25-34s voted for Rudd (because the choice for most of them was between Howard, Rudd and Keating since that’s all they’ve known), and by picking up a few points here and there in the other demographics it’s pretty obvious how Rudd got to 20%.
Every poll, poll after poll, survey after survey from every pollster that has asked shows that a majority of Australians arent buying economic armegeddon.
ruawake, naaaah its the Perre’s and the Carbones that overrun Griffith, many years ago i went there with one of my Italian mates and we stayed for about a week, we were treated like royalty, i nearly had a fit afterwards when i was told we stayed with the local godfather, i got an addiction there to hadmade italian bread rolls baked in an outside brick oven and then soaked in homemade olive oil, squashed fresh picked tomatos and salt, it’s food of the gods believe me.
Given everyone with a mortgage has had about $750 a month reduction to their mortgage repayments, given that petrol has dropped around $30-40 a fill since mid year, given there were tax cuts in place after July 1 and given that Rudd handed out $10.5 billion to all and sundry might be the reasons Poss. The average family has had a major boost to their income which has made life a little easier for us all.
It seems the recession is something happening somewhere else atm.
Perhaps we here in Australia are living in a bubble. When it goes “pop” the “spaghetti will really hit the fan”.
njl
I am assuming you lean towards supporting the Liberal Party. So get used to being in opposition for about 10 years.
We are over a third of the way into Rudd’s first term and your team has gone backwards. The divisions have not been healed – they have widened.
If Bill Leak was doing his boxing ring cartoons they would show a King hit to Labor every day. Maybe with Ferguson swinging wildly then kicking the poor opponent in the goolies or Tanner doing the death spin. The to top it off Garrett wrapping his T-shirt over his head and giving Hunt a “liverpool kiss”.
What happened to John Anderson’s review of the National Party? Oh thats right Barnaby kicked Warren in the cods.
Turnbull needs to exert his authority over his party – except he has none.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24933182-12377,00.html
Howard best PM since WWII – poll
AAP spin on Essential’s Poll
“JOHN Howard is on a winning streak – days after receiving a Medal of Freedom from US President George W. Bush, he’s been voted Australia’s favourite prime minister.
An online poll of 1000 people, conducted last week by Essential Research, found almost a third of people rated Mr Howard as the best prime minister since World War II.
Second in line was Kevin Rudd, with 20 per cent of the vote.
Larrikin Bob Hawke beat his Labor colleagues Paul Keating and Gough Whitlam, while Liberal stalwart Robert Menzies can still pull a crowd – 11 per cent of people rated him No.1.
The poll also found almost a third of people think they will be worse off in a year’s time as a result of the global financial crisis.
Older people and those not working were more likely to be worried.
But overall, most people thought they would be “about the same”, or better off.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24933182-12377,00.html
Jeeezus wept.
Glen,
Time for a Gravatar change for you then?
Hey Glen
Add Labor PMs and Lib PMs who wins?
I’d imagine that has a fair bit to do with it it Greeny! Even on the jobs front – in a severe recession the overwhelming majority of jobs are still fairly secure, so it’s pretty understandable why we still get solid majorities not going negative in the polling despite the global economic environment.
Rua – stop tormenting Glen!
Amazing how the only Essential Polling mentioned by msm is the one and only one that has the Libs ahead in something
But how much weight you can give it is questionable given Kevin Rudd got 20% but i assume that has more to do with the fact he is the current PM.
Rua that is only because Menzies was PM from 1949-1966…that is a long time since WW2 we’ve been in power for longer so meh!
Glen
It is entirely consistent. About a third of people think Howie was super-dooper, about a third of people will vote for the Libs.
The other 66% are the one’s that Turnbull needs to worry about.
Glen,
It’s not the length that is important, but how you use it!
njl
Now your first line of your #220 acurately was:
“Judith, the position maketh the man. George Bush is a down to earth kind of fella who treats his dog like his youngest child.”
I thought it was a ridiculous comment about a guy who sanctions torture , renditons , gitto , iraq etc …and that was my mesage to you njl in replying , what uyou said was “fashionable nonsensense” (and for my friend Judith to see what njl was trying to “spin” in replyin to youse)
Now i only proceeded to continue talking about Bush thereafter , because your WHOLE para only menoned Bush, and no one elkse …but you now claim somewhere in middle of it you started talking about Rudd , so you expect me secondf guess an intelectual now …so njl if you want to talk about Rudd at all then for godness sake at least mention his name in th para , thats th high english stansdard we hav here njl
THEN you say 2 other coments in your #247 post First was something about simpleton , well njl when someone as you did “George Bush is a down to earth kind of fella” it IS simple to see you said it and obviousley believe it…but i tink its nonsense
THEN you say “Point was that being down to earth, able to relate with the common man like Judith said Kevin could doesn’t really mean squatt considering Bush CAN…”
You said it again praising Bush in a secnd post NO ONE can relate to th “common man” and at th same time sancton torture , renditons and treat Iraqi civilian deaths with non huimanising terms like ‘insargents’ or somtimes just plain ignore there ar actualy any inocent Iraqi deaths at all You actualy confuse Mugabe/Putin talking TO th peoples (for a photo media snap) with ‘relating to’ or “being in sink with” th aspiratons & standards of th common man So your analogying of Bush ( a politcan faking talking TO peoples with that ‘grin’) to Rudd ‘relating to th common man’ is diferent planets
GG
I’m loving the GFC. My mortgage payments are much less, petrol is cheaper, I don’t own any shares and don’t have super and the Ruddster sent me a $1000 for Christmas. The Christmas sales are going on forever and everything’s cheap.
It’s all good!!
The only problem is that Borders have been taken over and their new owners are dumbing them down. I can’t buy a decent book locally anymore.
Ronster
It is quite appropriate that it falls to you to point out the grammatical and syntactical errors in njl’s posts. I struggled with that paragraph of his/hers until you so mellifluously explained it to me.
But I have to agree with njl on one thing. Even I find GWB engaging and likeable. It doesn’t stop me from detesting him though.
Diog
Thanks for the earlier post – another scam that “Big Pharma” use is intravenous drugs, when they are available as oral drugs with the same effect. Guess what it costs more to go to the infusion chair than to pop a few pills.
Or subcutaneous injections of monoclonal antibodies – instead of intravenous.
But that is another topic.
Essential poll here. 55 per cent of respondents to the best PM poll backed a Labor PM against 45 per cent Liberal. Whitlam, Hawke, Keating and Rudd stole Labor votes from each other, whereas Liberal voters were only interested in Menzies and Howard. Being pre-1970 is obviously a big disadvantage.
vera
#258
“Amazing how the only Essential Polling mentioned by MSM is the one and only one that has the Libs AHEAD in something”
Hi Vera …th MSN ar wrong again , th liberals were NOT ahead , they were behind
When you adds th table below up , its Labor PM’s 55% vs Lib PM’s 45% so we in front !
Prime Minister Term in office %
John Curtin 7 Oct 1941 – 5 Jul 1945 4%
Ben Chifley 13 Jul 1945 – 19 Dec 1949 2%
Robert Menzies 19 Dec 1949 – 26 Jan 1966 11%
Harold Holt 26 Jan 1966 – 19 Dec 1967 1%
John Gorton 10 Jan 1968 – 10 Mar1971 1%
William McMahon 10 Mar 1971 – 5 Dec 1972 1%
Gough Whitlam 5 Dec 1972 – 11 Nov 1975 9%
Malcolm Fraser 11 Nov 1975 – 11 Mar 1983 3%
Bob Hawke 11 Mar 1983 – 20 Dec 1991 12%
Paul Keating 20 Dec 1991 – 11 Mar 1996 8%
John Howard 11 Mar 1996 – 3 Dec 2007 28%
Kevin Rudd 3 Dec 2007 – present 20%
Now other thingy about that is 11% voted for Menzies , like he retired in 1965 so reckon that says also there demograpgics ar getting old , and more of oz youngsters of today ar ‘with it’ to Labor
Diog
“But I have to agree with njl on one thing. Even I find GWB engaging and likeable.”
diog , when you said you baracked for BOTH AFL footy teams in a 2 team town ,
i thought that just could not ever be surpased for th politcaly corect ‘fashionable fairness’ of th intellegentsia set
…. but you’ve set a new benchmarrk in politcal correctness of “fashionable fairness” with your GWB likability , I mean next you’ll say without a smiley you actualy ’sympathise’ for Peter Costello’s in his current irrlevance ….just to be politcaly corect “fair”
Ron,
It is a bit like lipstick on a pig. It might seem funny, but it’s still a pig.
Ron
I know you can’t divorce a person from their politics but if you could, GWB would probably be quite fun to be around. He’s witty and quite charming in a buffoonish sort of way. We all knew kids like that. I don’t mind Tony Abbott either…
I really hated Howie, Andrews, Reith, Cheney, Rove and Rumsfeld so I’m not indiscriminately magnanimous.
On another topic, this just shows how clumsy the alcopops tax is. Smirnoff are putting out a “malt-based” alcopop (evidently a “malternative” so it is taxed like a beer) which is colourless, citrus and 6% alcohol which costs $3. Their vodka-based alcopop which is colourless, citrus and 7% alcohol costs $5. Nicola Roxon is not amused. Aren’t humans ingenious?
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24931898-5006301,00.html
Any poll that puts Howard ahead of Curtin is a joke
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jan/19/bank-bail-out-rbs
I say what is wrong with Rudd Govt. It has spent only tens of billion dollars to save the economy. Whereas other countries are spending hundreds of billions, in the USA case, it has spent about 2 trillions. The G8 and some of the G20 are no longer talking about starving off recession, it’s DEPRESSION they are trying to starve off.
So what is wrong with OZ here, we are not even in recession yet. The Rudd Govt has to really try harder so we can at least join the recession club. Gee, we have it really tough here in OZ.
Diog
I didn’t know that about Borders – that explains a lot. I have also noticed a decline lately.
All teh posts about recessions being exagerrated are right – this isn’t the depression and nobody is going to be malnourished in Australia other than through socially dysfunctional communities, not lack of food. The financial press panics because a recession reduces THEIR income a lot. For the rest of us with normal permanent jobs its not that bad.
However there are groups that suffer unfairly – I feel sorry for new entrants to the job market at this time and some people (not merchant bankers) in sales and business support areas like IT could lose their jobs. But overall, as I said previously, this is not the 1970s and we were close to full employment with shortages of skills in some areas (including mine). So unemployment will not go back above 10% again. In fact, this might be a good time to train some more people in areas of skill shortage.
GG
On the lipstick thing, never underestimate the power of make-up.
http://www.rense.com/1.imagesH/makeup.jpg
Finns
Dead right. I did some sums a few weeks ago that as of christmas if we had spent the same per capita as the US on the GFC we would have spent $150 billion US in Australia, as opposed to our $20 billion. Plus we are spending at least half our money on stimulus measures which will give us a benefit at the end – better internt, transpor infrastructure etc – whereas their cash has been blown bailing out corporate criminals (unprosecuted ones).
Dio, Tony Abbott!!!!! i mean Tony Abbott, hell man hes a vicious, evil tongued d/h who speaks down to women as if they’re dirt, he’s like a pirahna ready to chew a hunk out of you, all he’s done since going into opposition is whine about his pay not being enough and whinging about the portfolio he’s been handed, c’mon Dio surely you’ve got more taste than that.
even with putting my bias aside i cant find anything likeable about Bush, he comes across as fairly thick to me, i dont mind thick people as a rule i’m one of them, but the man set himself up as a leader of his country and did untold damage {i should put that as his brother rigged it for him to become leader} then again i detested Howard so there it is, guess i’d better stick to sticking pins in their pics and keep my opinions to myself.
Ruawake you may think whatever you like of my views. But I’m fairly certain you’d have a hard time of finding anything I’ve said which really flatters John Howard. I think i might have said he exploited the Tampa skillfully from a political perspectives omwhere along the track but thats about it, and I certainly don’t approve of what he, Lord Downer and Ruddock did. I believe Turnbull has election winning capabilities, but the day he won that leadership ballot I thought his hopes were over. His fatal mistake was that he couldn’t wait.
Is it any wonder that having spent over a decade in power the federal libs are now percieved as hapless and incompetent, and that the longest serving state government suffers almost as bad a fate. Meanwhile the young and much fresher Mike Rann is the most popular labor premier going round?
I would be extremely surprised if the Rudd government served less than five years, and very surprised if they served more than ten. He’s a pretty good politician, has a pretty strong frontbench, Tanner and Smith have been just what a prime minister wants although I think Swanny could be a casualty of the first reshuffle. But if the machine can pick the right people at any election after the next they should win. It’s not a criticism of Rudd or Labor, nor a belief in some formidable liberal party formula for winning elections. I just have far less faith in the intelligence of the Australian people than you do. I expect that once a government is more than five years old not withstanding a national crisis they lose elections from there on in. The exception is when oppositions go gaga and gamble a Hewson or a Latham or try and a Joh for Canberra campaign.
So if in 2012 they all shutup and line up behind Joe and the big bear himself doesn’t get carried away they should form government. But I shouldn’t be surprised and a half if they did something dumb like make Tony Abbott or Julie Bishop leader. And really, it only takes an opposition to lose the plot for six months every three years to keep an old government in government. I mean, all these adoring laborites here don’t like to talk about Mark Latham I’ve noticed, they like to think him an aberration.Never mind the glorious deputy prime minister who thought a Latham leadership was a good idea, the loveable minister for state, the genius trade minister and the attorney general. All these popular, clever cabinet ministers in this slick, well oiled machine thought Mark Latham was the man.
But never mind you probably were one of those who thought Latham was going to stick it to Howard, knock him off his game, tell like it is and sweep to government.
You are right about Turnbull not being able to assert authority over the party. And therein lies the paradox the coalition suddenly suffer, staunch conservatism is far too unpopular now but the conservative factions dominate the party. Hardly know what you expect Turnbull and Hockey to do, maybe Turnbull can try and buy out the conservative wing of the liberal party, I dunno it’s a tricky business.
Ron, perhaps you should tell Judith then how ridiculous it is that a man supposedly inspired by Dietrich Bonhoffer locks refugees up in prisons and gets around granting them the basic rights of prisoners by detaining them under an adminstrative act isntead of a criminal act. Or perhaps you can accept that a politicians personal life and the politicians politics are two different worlds which seldom overlap. And I’m sorry I tried, I really tried to make sense of the last paragraph but I just can’t speak pigeon.
Njl
Its Pidgin not pigeon
So it is. I knew you were one of the cleverer ones.
Soc, even the Arabs are now crying poor. I read few days ago that the Fin Ministers of the Gulf countries met and said they have collectively lost $2Trillions in their investment in the West in the last 12 months and also have to cancel few hundred billions of projects.
Trust me, i cried and cried for them (from joy).
Gus, you can eat pigeon but not Pidgin. So who is the pretty face now?
njl
You may care to rewrite history but Howard beat Latham on the “Interest Rates” sham. A ploy which eventually lead to his losing office and his own seat.
Finns
You obviously havent been to papua
Judith
I agree with every word in your post. I just find Bush and Abbott likeable. Perhaps I need therapy. Abbott did give an organisation I’m associated with quite a lot of money to prevent and improve treatment of burns in indigenous communities.
Ruawake I fully understand now. All conservative election wins are on the back of dirty tactics exploiting the better nature of these idealistic, noble progressives and every progressive win is a classic case of the honest, fair tactics of these saints triumphing as people see through the cheap, tawdry, manipulative conservatives.
Bloody hell, if you can’t even recognise Latham as an incompetent oaf you’re a lost cause.
Pretty picture of the Interest rate fiasco here.
http://www.rba.gov.au/ChartPack/interest_rates_australia.pdf
der
http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/govt-to-provide-more-stimulus-to-push-demand-nath/14/45/53167/on
I say one more time, what is wrong with the Rudd Govt. Even the Indian Govt is spending US$64 more Billions to stimulate the economy.
“Ron, perhaps you should tell Judith then how ridiculous it is that a man supposedly inspired by Dietrich Bonhoffer locks refugees up in prisons and gets around granting them the basic rights of prisoners by detaining them under an adminstrative act isntead of a criminal act.”
Dietrich Bonhoffer ? so i am suposed to know who this guy is , and even if i did I’m supposed to see th relevance of him to Bush….and then you want me to explain to Judith
Well working bockwards in logic , I note Judith already agrees with me on Bush as she cann’t see anyting likable about him at all either So i’m still sticking to view your coment that GWB is likable is nonsense
Next i see this guy Bonhoffer inspired someone , let me assume it was GWB….so ? I mean njl , George bush goes to church as well and is probably inspired as well there by Jesus and th groups , …so ? that has nothing to do nothing at all to do with fact that George Bush endosed torture and lied to invade to iraq etc THAT REELY IS th essense of this man his attrributes his standards his morales his view on innocent lives killed his idea of justise in gitto so whoever and what even this Dietrich guy is did or inspired whether it was good or evil does NOT change George bush’s attritbutes in public arena …and they ar deplorable , and not likeable one litle bits
So just because AGAINST that Bush “appears” to be ‘nice’ or a dic.khead in 10 seconfd TV grabs ….geez he is a US politcan he’s trained to ‘appear’ ordinary’ to th punters and doesn’t even do that well , just how nany hours of indepth interviews hav we seen of this guy , but reality is he is a buffoon but what he did his actual actons is how one judges and th pudding his none of his actons were legal , moral , equiteble , fair , humane blah blah , thats th guys standards morales , so not likeable is his legacy for mine And BTW , which widow in Iraq gives a st.uff if George walks th dog every mornin or is inspired by whoever
As by friend amigo GG said now i ralize in checking first for once and in just one line , and acurately as always to th pointy end re George Bush…It is a bit like lipstick on a pig. It might seem funny (GWB) , but it’s still a pig.”
tutt, tutt Dio, theres a name for people that can be bought lol.
Swanny seemed to do ok on 7 30 report, he stuck to his script even though he was being talked over and had enough nous not to gild the lily, he’s grown into the job, especially when you remember that the opposition thought he’d be a very weak link and Bishop would have him on toast.
I don’t really think anyone ever thought that Julie Bishop would have Swan on toast. That sounds like a fantasy.
But having toast with Julie Bishop? That’s a totally different fantasy.
Ronster
Dietrich Bonhoeffer was a German theologian who joined the Resistance against the Nazi’s and was executed by them before the end of the war.
Newspoll: 54-46 – new thread.