Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:
• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent’s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).
• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.
• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.
• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.
• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.
• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.
Other news:
• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.
• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.
3,047 Comments
From the Newspoll article:
Mr Turnbull showed no sign yesterday of backing away from his opposition to the package.
“The problem with the package is it is putting an absolutely unsustainable burden of debt on future generations,” the Liberal leader said on the Ten Network.
“Think about this: we are going to have to look our children and their children in the eye and say: ‘We have put tens of billions, $200 billion of debt, probably more, on your shoulders, and we did it so we could send everyone in Australia a cheque for $950.’
Funny that the difference between Rudd and Turnbull is 20b or thereabouts. A fraction of GDT I’d expect. What an admission. Turnbull is dead meat.
Also, young voters seem to be most supportive of the package. So Turnbull’s argument that that young people will suffer most from the debt seems to be moot.
http://images.smh.com.au/ftsmh/ffximage/2009/02/08/turnbull_wideweb__470×309,0.jpg
Ahh, so that’s where Turnbull was yesterday!
Yep, you would’ve thought that he would cancel that and go to Melbourne with the PM as a show of support.
Somebody should tell Xenophon that there are tax cuts coming.
Do they give these guys a personal economics briefing? I reckon they should send one of Henry’s men around to give a one on one economic briefing in simple enough terms that they can understand what different sorts of action can have. Seems Xenophon doesn’t get it at all. Or is just preening himself in public to increase his profile.
Turnbull is lucky to get away with 58/42. I predict that his personal rating will get worse at the next Newspoll, Rudd’s will increase and so will the TPP.
Wonder if Xenophon will take any notice of the will of the people?
Many young people do not think past next week. I’m not knocking them – that’s just the way young people think. The fact that students stand to receive a payment for the first time in yonks must be a boost to the government.
I must admit I thought that the opposition would have received a bigger kicking in this poll although the gap is still rather large.
I think the bigger kicking is coming. Next Newspoll will I think see him sink some more.
Turnbull has just got to the top of the slippery dip and has begun the downward journey. No defying gravity now, he has gone beyond the patience of the electorate with inept petty political positioning one too many times.
Just imagine how much damage a blocked Stimulus Package will cost them!
The Liberal Party Taliban will be looking for a new leader soon. They need to undo the damage of Nelson and Turnbull well before the election now.
Confirmed death toll now 96:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25023335-1243,00.html
I don’t think there’s any doubt that BB will pass the legislation with a tweek or two. It now look like Fielding to:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2485709.htm?section=justin
That only leaves X. Any reading on how this maverick will vote?
I’m off to zzzzzzzz land. The bushfire fatalities have reached 96 and I’m sure the toll will rise. A very sad day for us all. The British PM has offered assistance. Who’d have thunk it.
Looks like Turnbull is helping uncertains make up their minds about him. His dissatisfation rating is up 7 points to 38%
Milne thinks he wants tax cuts.
Meanwhile, back at our war. Reading the following articles you would be wondering why we are over there at all.
Holbrooke ‘examining the very objectives’ cf Afghanistan, et cetera.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/opinion/08aswany.html?_r=1
Karzai out of favour in US now. (Bush/Howard tolerated his hugely corrupt government)
http://community.nytimes.com/article/comments/2009/02/08/world/asia/08karzai.html#postComment
Egyptians are already going off Obama. Why? Not a peep on the Israeli invasion of Gaza and not a peep on a corrupt, anti-democratic government in Egypt.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/opinion/08aswany.html?_r=1
Article on links between bushfire probability and CC. Mentions Bob Brown.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2009/feb/08/global-warming-weather-science
Certainly not a bad result for the Government.
Yep… got it in one.
lullerskates! Nice poll!
I wrote previously that politics is all about timing. Turnbull’s latest timing has been appalling.
1. Where was he yesterday? No images of him whatsoever at the scene of the Vic bushfire, with the victims, words of comfort, shoulder to cry on etc etc. It will only reinforce his merchant banker image. Not good.
2. The Vic bushfire has changed the mood of the nation. The nation is now in the giving mood. The Rudd Stimulus package fits perfectly in this giving mood. For Turnbull to argue against it now is almost like arguing against motherhood. Not good.
The death toll is now 104.
The SMH has an article citing the CSIRO regarding climate change and the threat of more natural disasters. It also mentions Brown’s comments and does explicitly state that he didn’t say “CC caused the bushfires”. The editorial in the SMH also makes the same point as Brown.
This is why you talk about it straight away to get people thinking and get people to understand what potentially lies ahead.
Can William post the Newspoll PDF when it becomes available, i’m interested in the full results.
Even though Malcolm Turnbull said “We aren’t trying to be popular” you knew this was a completely political decision that resulted it an enormous backfire.
How can Shanahan comment on the poll when last week he was blubbing about Turnbull’s great trap.
I wonder what the PPM figures are.
SNIP: See Article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
good morning bludgers, the toll gets worse and worse, i didnt turn the telly or radio on this morning ‘cos i didnt want to know but him next door came banging on the front door at 6 30 to tell me.
The talkback radio, straw polls and internet polls gave Dennis some hope. The smiles on the faces of Opposition members boded well. At last they’d done something. Rudd on the ropes. Labor members out in the electorates worried. An undercurrent of pessimism in the government. Turnbull had intercepted a pass and was streaking for the opposite try line etc. etc.
Sadly for Shanahan he now has the professional, reasonably scientific Newspoll – you know, the one he owns – and suddenly he looks sillier and more cockeyed optimistic over nothing more than wet dreams than ever before.
Greensborough Growler;
Your comments should be directed towards The Guardian, the UK Meteorological Office, Oxford University, the University of Southern Queensland, the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, the Bureau of Meteorology, the Sydney Morning Herald and the CSIRO.
There’s nothing politically contentious about saying that with CC we will see more of these disasters and they will be worse. It’s the only responsible thing to do. Hiding from it will achieve nothing but MORE DEATHS. We want over this last night. I don’t think you’ve read the discussion there.
The government commissioned reports said that climate change would lead to more extreme weather conditions and increase the risk of natural disasters. I understand it’s difficult when you realise that you’ve been sold down the river and the younger generations of this country have been consigned to more deaths and tragedies from more extreme weather, but it’s not too late.
bob
Mumble has the pdf
http://www.mumble.com.au/pdfs/federal/newspoll090208/0202%20Fed.pdf
Whoever is on ABC News Breakfast at the moment is also reinforcing the link between CC and future natural disasters.
Turnbull’s PPM is 20%, his second lowest and only 4 points shy of Nelson’s.
The guy on News Breakfast is Victoria’s Emergency Services Minister. Do you hope his “f*cking soapbox” burns down as well, Greensborough Growler?
Oz,
I forgot to add, “while you were standing on it”.
The chance of that happening will be significantly higher for me then they were for you.
But yeah, I guess we should hope that a various array of climate scientists, journalists, commissioners and journalists will die for warning of what lies ahead.
What the hell is wrong with Turnbull? He’s getting killed on this. Rudd is doing what a PM should. Gordon Brown seems to be showing more interest in the bushfires than Turnbull. Is he using the George Bush “flyover” response to Hurricane Katrina?
He’s probably crying over this poll.
I doubt Turnball will bother going to rural Victoria, he’s much more at home in the poverty stricken area of Rose Bay/Vaucluse! Yep, an ocean swim race in Bondi was far more important than a national bushfire tragedy. No wonder he’s 20 points behind Rudd.
Gordon Brown is going to help out, the Brits presumably can send over some search & rescue teams.
Well so much for my prediction of not much change in newspoll…
And c’mon GG I didn’t think Browns coments were needed yesterday either, but we don’t have to wish harm on people do we? Oz is just arguing his point.
Katrina was what finally killed off Bush’s presidency. Turnbull’s suicidal response to Rudd’s GFC package looks even worse now. If he combines that with a heartless and politically stupid no-show in rural Victoria, he’s kissed his job goodbye. I bet Joe Hockey would have been there.
this is the point re Turnbull i was trying to get across yesterday, he’ll swan around at the silvertail money raising charity balls for the victims, rubbing shoulders with the elite and feel he’s doing a wonderful job of helping out, as far as going out in the smoke, dirt and soot and have a weeping blackened victim cry in his arms–well that might dirty his nice clean shirt.
Interesting that the government now leads the coalition on economic management almost 2 to 1.
Turnball, who claims only he can save the children of Australia from crippling debt, is humiliated in the latest opinion poll! LMAO
Judith: so true!
Turnball’s idea of a rural area is somewhere 5 km west of Vaucluse.
Amigo GG,
Things must be desperate. i thought our cuzs over the Tasman were desperate with the sheep.
Bull Butter
The polls is just a reflection of the amount of cash bribes Rudd is prepared to give the people…
looks like the arsonists will be charged with the equivelant of the murder charge.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/fire-bugs-to-face-murder-charges/2009/02/08/1234027855664.html
Have a cry Glen. Your tears sustain us.
So Glen, why isn’t your man in Victoria? You’ve got a hotline to Liberal Party HQ, haven’t you?
I said the Newspoll after this one would have a bounce for the Coalition.
I guess that’s almost inevitable now. =P
If Turnbull went people like you would say he would be playing politics….
This isnt a national tragedy it is a Victorian one anyway Evan…
i take it from this spiteful little piece by Sheehan that he doesnt like Rudd one little bit, or maybe he’s a good pal of Shanahan, they both seem to be under the same delusion that Turnbull is the great white hope, then again maybe they’re smoking from the same pipe, they’re so far out of touch with the ordinary voter.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/paul-sheehan/ruddslide-debt-distortion-denial/2009/02/08/1234027847278.html
47,
Glen, I know your in a tough spot with the politics right now but c’mon, I mean really, that’s a shocker
Glen, it’s a national tragedy!
So you’re arguing Rudd shouldn’t be there?
BTW: Preferred PM
Rudd 62
Turnball 20
That says it all LOL LOL LOL
funny that Glen, it may be a Victorian tragedy but Victoria does happen to be part of Australia and Turnbull is the federal leader of her majesty’s Australian opposition, yes Glen if he went there today after the delay and a bit of public bitching it would be playing politics, YESTERDAY HE SHOULD HAVE BEEN THERE, Rudd and other leaders were—where was Turnbull? at a nice cool beach firing the starting gun for a bloody swimming race!!!
While the Coalition continues to forlornly boast about “Costello’s surplus”, their wastefulness is put into perspective.
as quoted by Phillip Coorey, Sydney Morning Herald, 9 February 2009
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/leaders-see-a-rescue-package-full-of-ideology/2009/02/08/1234027847287.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
How long is it since soap came in boxes?
As I said here last week, Turbull is playing a long game. He knows he will take a short-term hit on this, but he’s gambling on Rudd failing and the voters turning when he says “I told you so.” It’s a big gamble but when you’re behind you have to gamble.
It’s interesting that the article Judith cites is headed “Fire starters will face murder charges” but the text of the article doesn’t support the headline. What it actually says is: “Mr Walshe said an offender implicated in the fatal fires could be charged with the offence of arson causing death, a crime with a maximum penalty of 25 years in jail.” So it’s a serious crime, but it’s NOT murder. Murder requires INTENT to kill, that’s what the word means. And in case, it’s easy to talk tough now, when they catch one of these firebugs, and it turns out to be some pathetic 18yo retarded masturbater, as they usually are, all this talk will evaporate.
Judith yesterday we still didnt know the extent of the death toll and if anything Rudd should have invited Malcolm to show how bipartisan he is…
Glen Turnbull shouldnt have needed an invitation, common decency as a leader should have taken him there, Rudd had more on his mind than to prod Turnbull into doing the right thing, this article shows what statemanship is, it says Rudd nearly broke down on ch9 talking about it, he’s going into the razed area again today and he’s staying in Melbourne for the time being, Glen thats what a leader who cares about his people does.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2485849.htm
Glen, who is playing politics exactly?
Did Howard “invite” Beazley to Port Arthur?
Adam’s right. Turnbull’s stance on the stimulus is a gamble, but its success or failure will be decided in 6, 12 or 18 months’ time, when people see how well or badly the economy is doing.
If we’ve avoided recession (or only had a mild/short recession), while the rest of the world has suffered more, Rudd will absolutely romp in at the next election. There is nothing Turnbull can do about this.
However if we have struggled, the main things lots of people will think are “whatever Rudd did hasn’t worked” and “I seem to remember Turnbull being against Rudd’s plan at the time”. This second point will be reinforced by the Liberals at every opportunity.
Will be interesting …
Glen in times like this people need to see their leaders leading, maybe a sympathetic shoulder to cry on wont undo the trauma but you know your leader is there with you emotionally, why do you think the late king and queen were adored by the English public, during the bombings they were there, not hiding out in the country, they were visible and with their people, if you cant understand that there’s no way of getting through to you.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2485849.htm
Showson @ 3
Have you got a link to the Bondi Ocean Race story that mentions Turnbull starting the race yesterday? I wanted to show a co worker and can’t find any mention of Turnbull in the Ocean Race story on the SMH website.
If the government gets their stimulus bill rejected twice over a period of 3 months or longer, they could call for a double dissolution, which would then give the economic crisis another 3 years to lift, before we’d be going to the polls again.
And the commentators are saying a DD is more likely than ever.
This is sincere
http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2009/02/09/Mass_murder_Rudd_hits_out_at_bushfire_arsonists
dyno maybe they’ll think that regardless Rudd tried everything to save us, no one can tell how the voters will react either way in 18 months time, Rudd’s rhetoric about throwing everything we have at the crisis resounds very well, going by the experts OZ will ride it out better than most countries, i hope so and it’s not just for Rudds sake neither, while it wont affect me i’ve got family it will affect badly, Rudd’s package will certainly help them, my son-in-law and grandson are roofing plumbers with homes and kids to support and they’re deeply concerned about the drop in the building trade.
Wedgies all ’round for the Coalition.
There’s really nothing that Turnbull can do in Victoria. Rudd can take any number of actions for disaster relief, which he is doing, but Turnbull can’t do anything except offer comfort, which could be seen as politically motivated. However, showing up at Bondi to start a race probably wasn’t one of his smartest moves.
robf.
it’s in this article.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/turnbull-has-a-shot-at-big-spending-too/2009/02/08/1234027855691.html
First Dog’s fundraiser: help bushfire victims
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090209-First-Dogs-fundraiser-help-bushfire-victims.html
The auction itself – http://cgi.ebay.com.au/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MESELX:IT&item=170300898850
Question time today has been replaced by a condolence motion.
triton, if Turnbull had gone there yesterday and talked to the survivers it wouldnt have been seen as politically motivated, yes today it would, it’s too late and would be seen as an after thought, Rudd couldnt do anything physically to help but the emotional lift of having him there and sharing the grief is indescribable, the “we’re all in this together” message can be very uplifting at times like this, i dont believe for one minute Rudd was doing it politically neither,his real emotion shows that, he’s shown in the past he genuinely cares and being there was the right thing to do, uncomfortable heat, dirt, smoke and all.
As Turnbull fired a starting pistol into the air he also fired bullet holes into his image.
Dyno #57
If you think voters will be rushing back to the Coalition in tough times to see their paypackets and work conditions plundered, I must say, it seems optimistic.
Some employers will lick their lips at the idea of workers out, though the Coalition probably have that vote in their pocket already.
Industrial Relations hits people intimately: their day-to-day working lives (about half their waking hours), their paypackets and standard of living, their work-life balance. It could be made into a huge issue that will resonate deeply in tough times. It’s also an issue I can’t see the Coalition ever winning.
#69 JB
Judith, Rudd is the country’s leader so I agree that he should be there to see it for himself, offer what comfort he can and provide money and take other actions for disaster relief. It depends on your definition of ‘leader’. Turnbull is not in government and can’t do anything, so the case for him to be there is far less compelling. Rudd and Turnbull are not co-leaders.
Remember Mark Latham being criticised for his slow response to the Tsunami Disaster a few years ago?
Turnball just arrived in regional Victoria!
triton @ 72
“Rudd and Turnbull are not co-leaders.”
Try saying that to Malcolm!
These two pieces are written by the hapless Dennis Shamaham and are simultaneously on the OO frontpage website. How much longer can they keep that bumbling fool on? I know the OO isn’t big on their credibility but a few of their journos must be getting restless.
#54 For god’s sake, one doesn’t need an invitation to do the right thing.
Glen, partisanship has you by the short and curlys, old son. Time to get a grip on reality.
Turnbull could be seen as politicking if he mooches along there now. After all, he’s not the leader (only the leader of a political party), and he’s now a day late. Back to Double Bay I’d suggest.
I can’t wait to see how Andrew Bolt will spin the Newspoll numbers, if he even mentions it at all, after using other less reliable polls to spout his arguments that the package is a failure.
Diogenes, I noticied that as well. Breathtakingly stupid isn’t it? I’d be embarrased to work alongside of this wacker. If the editor had his wits about him he’d order the immediate removal of that piece about about Rudd getting caught flat-footed.
Since William has not seen fit to create a separate thread on yesterday’s elections in Liechtenstein, I will have to post the results here:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/l/liechtenstein/
Non-political thought (off topic) but, if you were running Channel 9, would you put off running Underbelly tonight? Not saying it has anything to do with the fires, just thinking maybe the public won’t be as into it as they would have been 3 days ago… instead do a live news on the fires?
Though perhaps 1970s underworld stuff is a good diversion for people…
Liechtenstein has 2 conservative parties
triton.
as the leader of the alternative government better known as the opposition Turnbull SHOULD have been there, he’s still the leader of the opposition and therefore is putting himself up as the alternative PM.
Grog: Underbelly is perhaps Nine’s only certain ratings winner this year. They won’t delay it!
Oh well, better late than never for Turnball. Agreed, there’s not much opposition leaders can do other than lend moral support, but the perception still remains that Malcolm was slow off the mark and more interested yesterday in hobnobbing with a bunch of ocean swimmers at Bondi.
Yes, Glen, and they are in coalition against one lonely green member. Liechtenstein isn’t a real democracy anyway, the Hereditary Prince actually runs the place, mainly as a corrupt tax haven.
What an awful performance by Rudd on National Nine News. He was clearly trying to cry but couldn’t.
Part of the strategy to oppose Rudd’s stimulus package is to set the stage in the event of a continuing downturn locally and internationally – which seems likely.
“The package failed” if things get worse will be the mantra regardless of whether it was of benefit or not. Positive data will not be easily digestible by the punters but all negative opinions in the media will appear to be a logical conclusion: Things are worse – ergo – package didn’t work. It’s just ‘common sense’!
Such is the world of public opinion.
But unfortunately for Turnbull he won’t be leader when this happens. Costello is positioning himself to be leader (on a white charger) for the Libs (hopeful) double dis later this year.
You’d hardly be a neutral source of judgement Bree.
Well said, spidermonkey.
Ironbar does it again.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/federal-mps-united-over-vic-bushfires-20090209-819d.html?page=2
Meanwhile, outspoken federal Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey has blamed both major political parties for Victoria’s bushfire tragedy, saying the weekend wildfires were preventable.
Mr Tuckey, a former federal forestry minister, said policies that locked up forests created excessive fuel loads.
Wildfires, like those in Victoria at the weekend, had generally occurred every 25 years, he said.
But forests now had nearly 10 times the number of trees to the hectare than they did previously.
He blamed the situation on both major parties “who go running around putting in more reserves to get green preferences”.
“Governments who choose to lock up these forests and… treat them with benign contempt, well others pay the penalty,” he told reporters in Canberra.
Mr Tuckey expected to be branded insensitive for raising the issue.
#47, Glen, i am with you on this one. You know, it’s only those efffing Victorians. they are half human, aren’t they? and they play the aerial ping-pong. And it’s only about 100+, remember the Indonesian tsunami, it was 200,000+ and the Chinese Earthquake, it was 60,000+. The Victorians really have to do better to get our sympathy.
SNIP: Poor taste comment deleted – The Management.
I don’t think they will either, just thinking they might (out of self interest- you know the rating might not be as high etc..)
parliament to be suspended because of fires.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/parliament-suspended/2009/02/09/1234027901511.html
Grog, I thought Underbelly last year was very overrated, just random violence, topless women and a few boring sex scenes.
Bree, just climb back into the tar pit you’ve emerged from, being a lady i wont bother to tell you to p*ss off.
#83 JB
I’m not saying that there was no case for Turnbull to be there, since he is the alternative PM, just that his being powerless to do anything could make it look politically motivated to some people, even if he was there only out of genuine concern. Imagine that you are one of the people who has lost their home and Turnbull shows up. What can he do for you? And if he can’t do anything then why is he there? I just think that when you’re not in government it can look superfluous and poltically motivated to show up in a disaster area.
Diogenes,
Last time you said the Newspoll ALP dip was because of the ETS. What do you say now?
Is Bree related to Tabitha?
Judith, I was just trying to point out how The Greens have contributed to the Victorian bushfires. There is plenty of evidence to prove that as well.
Have to say I more enjoyed Cranford on the ABC last night than any show I’ve watched for a while. But then I am a literature junky
I agree triton. I don’t think Turnbull was being cold hearted. There’s not much he can do at the moment except pledge support for the Govenrment’s actions etc.
Mind you the Bondi Beach thing may not have been the best look PR wise…
Probably because he is…
Sorry,
and because of Qld floods. Apologies for parochialism.
so according to Tuckey all those trees grew in the last year or so, what did he do when he was minister for forestry? regardless Grog, Turnbull should have been there offering emotional support, today is far too late, leaders should be leading.
No question time, today.
News of Ms Rhiannon’s retirement seems to be a bit premature.
What a cheesecake Rudd has become. They keep repeating that part where he tries to cry on the news.
GG
It’s all about jobs and the GFC package. The Ruddster is doing his best on them. The ETS has faded into the background. Voters are mainly interested in short-term fixes to their immediate problems.
And what a tool you have always been
What! Without an invitation from Rudd! It’s shameless Glen!
See i told you that you’d say he was playing politics…
Bree got it right.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/info/daily/daily.pdf
well today is playing politics Glen, yesterday instead of swanning it at Bondi would have been genuine concern, obviously one of his PR men has nudged him and said “the peasants are restless and feeling ignored by your august self”
Did i have something to do with that?
#17 – [1. Where was he yesterday? No images of him whatsoever at the scene of the Vic bushfire, with the victims, words of comfort, shoulder to cry on etc etc. It will only reinforce his merchant banker image. Not good.]
Diogs,
You are probably right. Might add that talking to many apolitical people over the weekend the message was clear, Turnbull is an ahole for denying them their $950. Most people have already spent the money in their mind and they well know it’s Turnbull and the Libs that are holding it up.
Turnbull has said he expected to take a hit in the polls. My only comment is, “Careful what you plan for, you just might get it!”
does that mean the senate is suspended as well?
No, I saw Bob Brown on the news at parliament house, so the senate should still be on, Judith.
Finn.
Turnbull getting his nice clean designer shirt dirty in the heat, dirt, smoke and a grotty surviver crying on his shoulder—perish the thought.
Ruddslide: debt, distortion, denial
I’m not sure if this has been mentioned yet, but it’s seriously nasty. Actually nastier than anything GP could come up with. It’s mostly about the economic stimulus, but he has a go at the apology to Aboriginals last year as well. The moderation filter won’t let me type what I think of this fool.
Bree got it wrong
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/DynamicRed/Index.html
>>Liechtenstein has 2 conservative parties
>>>they are in coalition against one lonely green member
Not that much different to Oz really
BOP.
i was gobsmacked and posted it earlier, it’s nothing but complete nasty spite, hmmm Rudd must have ruffled his feathers sometime, actually it says more about the writer than the subject, maybe he’s auditioning for Akerman’s job.
it seems both inquiries into Rudd’s package has been suspended till tomorrow.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2486004.htm
According to Wiki, the NSW Criminal Code defines murder as “reckless endangerment of human life” OR premediatation. Surely the scale of the present disaster merits the application of the former. The Adelaide Hills arsonist is to be sentenced this month, and will be an interesting point of comparison. What are the usual sentences for arson? Are the weather conditons extant at the time of the offence taken into consideration?
I would have thought that the reason for Turnbull to be there (as for Rudd) is really about the information, experience and understanding that they can get from seeing the situation first hand. This would men not only greater understanding of the plight of victims, volunteers, workers and the public in the immediate aftermath, but also for future planning, funding, and management in the future. On that basis, all relevant ministers and shadow ministers should be on the scene at some stage over the next day or so. Turnbull should have been there yesterday.
Except what is to be gained? He won’t be leader for much longer.
#123
I would think that the conditions at the time would determine the degree of recklessness, which could be important for that charge, but really all that should be necessary is to establish cause and effect. You lit a fire deliberately and this was the result.
triton.
Adam would argue with that.
The weather conditions are taken into consideration in sentencing as the intent to cause damage is much more on a hot, windy day than in a thunderstorm.
#121, Albert Ross
AR, yes, the Liechtenstein election has been a fascinating one. But i have also been transfixed the “Cuttack Municipal Corporation” election, Cuttack is a major of municipal of the old Calcutta.
The two major parties, BJP (The right wing Hindu Nationalist = The Libs/Nats?) and the Congress (rather leftie = ALP?) has been thumped by a relatively new, junior BJD (= The Greens?)
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1090209/jsp/nation/story_10504630.jsp
Kinds like OZ, isn’t it.
Any arsonist that gets caught by the police in Victoria at the moment is probably very lucky not to have been caught by almost anyone else in the area and used as a speed bump. Putting them in “protective custody” for a loooong time would enhance their life expectancy markedly.
I reckon there are arguments in this kind of matter that regardless of why someone does this kind of thing, (and they would have to be nuts, maybe incompetent to be tried) the community needs to be protected from them once they are positively identified.
JB
Care to defend Rann on this one? Why should the taxpayer pay for ads promoting an unpopular decision by the Rann Government. It’s John Howard all over again.
Ads promoting The Marj labelled blatant political propaganda
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25027562-5006301,00.html
Just when one has despaired of finding any intelligent life on Planet Liberal up pops Cory Bernardi a Liberal senator with sound arguments against Mad Maude Conroy’s internet firewall. But then SA is different.
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,25016044-5013046,00.html
I should just point out that Mark Parnell is a Green senator and he’s the best and most decent politician in SA.
What happens if when Rudd says, “But it would have been much worse had we done nothing or less.” People will credit Rudd with giving it his best shot. Also, this stimulus package won’t be the last. There will be other measures taken in the coming months.
I wonder how negative people will be about the government when they see and hear about various infrastructure developments taking place and with job creation schemes happening etc.
With most people’s disinterest in and poor knowledge of the political system
Turnbull just maybe taking a short term hit for a future benefit that is pie in the sky.
He isn’t that smart, he doesn’t realise that the Queen is our Head of State.
Senator Bob Brown just spoke to the condolence motion in the Senate, and DIDN’T mention climate change at all.
And which sound arguments would they be?
More terrible news as Victoria Police forecast deaths will exceed 200.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/police-taskforce-to-hunt-arsonists-fears-bushfire-toll-may-double-20090209-81ix.html
Diogenes, a Premier/Prime Minister using taxpayer funds for political advertising? What a disgrace, it would never happen if the other side were in power!
And pigs fly.
Welcome to modern politics.
Of course had Howard done that it would have shown compassion on his part.
The problem for conservatives is that they want people to believe Rudd is a mongrel. Showing emotion and helping out people doesn’t fit into that narrative so another tack has to be taken like this BS from Tab…, er Bree.
Dio if it was an independant commentator i’d sit up and take notice but Parnell is just another pollie looking to make himself relevant and looking for a news spot.
bob1234
Both sides are equally bad on this and both are complete hypocrites.Mike Rann was endlessly squealing about it when he was in Opposition and now he’s all for it. When they start using taxpayers money to pay for political ads you know they are defending the indefensible, whether it’s SerfChoices or the Marj.
Well said Gary Bruce at #138
JB
I’m an independent commentator. I hate them all equally. So sit up and take notice!
Glen at #47
“This isnt a national tragedy it is a Victorian one”
Last time I looked Victoria was part of this nation.
On other matters.
Doesn’t this newspoll expose Shanahan as a blithering fool?
Please Diogenes, don’t lower yourself to comparing harsh industrial relations laws with a new hospital, whatever the merits of it are.
this latest outpouring is just complete twaddle,what really galls me is that people read his ravings as gospel.
pmsl Dio, i bloody well knew i should have mounted my broomstick and come over there and beat you senseless with it last night!
Just as the Port Arthur massacre was only a Tasmanian one?
fredex — Shanahan IS a blithering fool.
Anyone who does was lost to the Liberals a long time ago
I note that some here were hoping for a bigger hit for the Libs in this poll. Hell, what is so small about a drop of 3% for the coalition and a gain of 5% for Labor? That is big.
Judith, what does pmsl stand for? I thought I was on top of most of these abbreviations but this has me stumped.
Gary Bruce, I was hoping for 61/39 or 63/37… the two biggest 2PP polling results in the history of Rudd Labor. Or perhaps even break it.
And in the history of Newspoll to boot. Yes, Rudd Labor is that popular.
Next fortnight bob1234…
And this after one of it’s lowest results since the election. A more than satisfying result IMHO.
#151 GB
According to an acronym finder PMSL could be Pierz Men’s Softball League, but I suspect it is the other one – “p—ed myself laughing”.
I don’t think Labor should get carried away with these results – its as much a measure of the 39% dissattisfied with Turnbull as Rudd’s own success. Still it is a good result. As long as Rudd, Swann and company remain focused on doing the job, they will retain a strong lead. Passing the stimulus package this week shoudl cement their position. Like the last packafge, the full political benefit will not be appreciated till the money starts flowing. I don’t just mean the handout either. Nobody will complain when new lab and library buildings start popping up in their schools.
Actually, if you have a look at the list of Newspolls from Jan 2008 to now you’ll see that that 63% and 61% stick out like sore thumbs. Outliers I would suggest.
Gary, one of those was after the Apology. I don’t believe it was an error.
156 triton – thanks for that. Just one thing though, isn’t “myself” one word?
Soc, I’m not quite sure it makes any difference why the figures are as they are. Either way the government is doing well. I agree with the rest of your post though.
159 – Ok, Bob that may explain the 63% but it took an extraordinarily emotional issue to get that and it was still a one off. I don’t think you can expect that kind of result with this issue to be frank. You won’t get the rusted ons agreeing that a deficit is needed where emotional rusted ons gave Rudd a tick on the apology.
Julia is giving a very good and moving speech on the condolence motion.
Surprisingly, unlike Conroy, she didn’t start crying.
bugger, missed it.
Turnbull on now – very moved as well.
#163 ShowsOn
From the sound of it she was having to try hard not to.
Did the Senate motion start earlier or are you somehow listening to one House in each ear?
Debate over whether or not the federal budget should go into deficit pales after the events of the last few days.
Even Turnbull seems to recognise that.
Watching the politicians and the general reactions. I do wonder sometimes, how would Aust react if it has a natural disaster such the Chinese earthquake where 60,000+ died, or the Indonesian tsunami where 120,000+ died (in Indonesia only).
btw: i am surprised that no tag has emerged for the saturday bushfire, eg: ash wednesday, black friday etc. The MSM is not doing its job.
The Senate sat at 12:30 EST.
Apologies for my extended sojourn away from Poll Bludger.
First of all, the bushfires in Victoria have resulted in a terrible loss of life to many helpless citizens. Unfortunate, sad and sobering – my condolences to all families involved.
Secondly, today’s poll results are predictably bad for the coalition. No-one is going to do that well by denying thousands of people their $1000 lump sum payments.
ABC US Report on the Fires.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NajOATpglqc
Or by adopting policies that will likely result in a recession.
No 172
Keeping within one’s means is not a policy likely to result in a recession.
After all, Keynesianism caused the great depression.
#165 Grog
I’d expect the condolence motion to be shown on ABC TV late tonight in the QT slot.
The SMH on the speeches:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/it-will-be-remembered-as-one-of-the-darkest-days-in-australias-peacetime-history/2009/02/09/1234027928213.html
Yes it will, particularly if a country’s major trading partners are already in recession.
Incorrect. Protectionism did, specifically the Smoot-Hawley Act passed by a pair of Republicans, which Hoover failed to veto because of an election.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot-Hawley_Tariff_Act
Keynesianism caused the great depression? LOLOLOL
No 171
The destruction is breathtaking in its magnitude. It really is so very sad – I can’t even believe some brainless imbecile thought it would be appropriate to deliberately light these fires.
GB, sorry it’s taken me so long, i had visitors it means —pssing myself laughing.
No 176
ShowsOn, Hoover was a Keynesian before Keynes came to prominence. His big-government intervention, including wage fixing and restraint of competition & trade, resulted in the worst recession in US history.
Also, according to your own darn link, Hoover went to the 1928 election supporting higher tariffs to support US farmers. It seems your obsequious deception knows no bounds.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/turnbulls-mighty-gamble-20090206-7zze.html
Excellent article by the fair and balanced Michelle Grattan.
But Hoover asked congress to LOWER tariffs, instead congress raised them.
Logically he should’ve vetoed those increases, but instead he allowed a tariff war to break out. Which effectively doubled the cost of all imports into the U.S.
Your adherence to a failed ideology knows no bounds.
No 177
Yes, bob. Do some reading on President Hoover. He wasn’t a free marketeer, he was a Keynesian through and through. He caused the great depression.
No 182
ShowsOn, you’re clutching at straws. Hoover still signed the bill, thereby demonstrating that he supported economy-destroying tariffs. And this was on top of the litany of interventionist policy disasters to Hoover’s name.
You seem to be operating on the theory that if you repeat something often enough it becomes a fact. You can’t handle that things may be a bit more complicated than your one sided ideology.
The problem was Hoover’s PROTECTIONISM.
GP 173
“After all, Keynesianism caused the great depression”
You keep repeating this claim but it is still nonsense. Keynesianism did not exist as a doctrine till AFTER the depression. Keynes wrote his General Theory in 1936, as his analysis of the depression, then 7 years long. His advice was NOT acted on until the expansionary wartime budgets, which proved Keynes correct. You don’t have to like Keynesian policies, but you can’t claim they were responsible for the problem that led to their development.
Your claims about Hoover have been disproven before too. Same tactic?
Why do you repeat claims when they are proven false? If you repeat them loud enough, long enough and often enough Liberal party members might believe you, but the rest of us may start feeling that our intelligence is being insulted. Here’s hoping for your continued irrelevance to Australian political debate.
Faith in markets is what has brought the world out of poverty and increased the prosperity of millions.
Faith in governments has merely brought about the systematic extermination of millions.
Because needs to distort history so it fits with his worldview, rather than forming a worldview from the lessons of history.
The Attorney General just said that people found guility of starting the Victorian fires could also be found guilty of conduct with “reckless criminal intent”, which could justify a murder charge.
Toll now 128 according to Warren Truss.
Again this demonstrates the way you adhere to ideas as if you are in a fundamentalist cult.
The issue here is that SOMETIMES markets fail. This is not a general condemnation of market forces, it just says that they aren’t perfect. Just like government intervention isn’t perfect.
Yet you rely on SOME government intervention every day, from road rules, to law enforcement, to food and drug standards.
Stop being such a fundamentalist, and figure out an argument that isn’t so hilariously simplistic.
For those confused by GP’s babble, here is an article which descriebs the Great DEpression and its causes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression
There is still a debate over the exact cause; some say too much debt/deflation, others interest rates, others protectionism. NONE of them are stupid enough to fall for GP’s claim that it was Hoover’s spending. Even the Austrian school (right wing) think it was the money supply problem, not Hoover’s spending.
GP which right wing moron (tautology?) came up with this meme you are repeating? I presume you are not smart enough to come up with it yourself. Most right wing politicla hacks are “cut and paste” kind of people. Like Julie Bishop
Socrates, Hoover significantly increased public spending during his administration. He was a Keynesian before Keynes came to prominence, so to speak.
Where?
Hoover, among other things:
-fixed wages
-supported higher tariffs
-restrained competition
-did not subscribe to free-market orthodoxy
Other people here have falsely attributed the Great Depression to Hoover’s free-market principles, when he was not a free-marketeer.
For anyone interested, the Senate Committee on the stimulus package restarts at 4 PM EST. You will be able to watch it at these links:
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/eventdetailsSenate.aspx?eventid=1039561
“Faith in markets is what has brought the world out of poverty and increased the prosperity of millions.”
And look what our economic “freedom” has done to those in third world countries. The rich get richer, the poor get poorer.
So did John Howard, does that make him a Keynesian?
Utter simplistic rubbish.
It was his PROTECTIONISM. You are lumping a whole heap of unrelated things together and calling it Keysenianism. That’s nuts, and really, really funny.
One reason Africa is so poor is because most of the countries there have ridiculously high tariffs.
Compare this to China which has spent the last 30 years reducing tariffs, the result – 200 million fewer people in poverty.
There is some truth to what G.P. says, but it is surrounded by a heap of simplistic rubbish.
I think GP believes it too, but just saying it to stop us talking about how bad the Liberal Party is going at the moment. Anything for a distraction.
WA’s Contribution to the Bushfire effort.
http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Results.aspx?ItemID=131286
GP
Menzies was a Keynesian. He also did all these things you mention:
-fixed wages
-supported higher tariffs
-restrained competition
-did not subscribe to free-market orthodoxy
Hate him too?
You must find the wide spread rejection of your ideas frustrating these days.
I wonder if GP is a real person or a pseudonym for a bunch of young liberal law students or staffers sitting around a computer trying to be clever?
To be fair, the intellectual standard is consistent, though remembering the Howard Cabinet that could just be group-think.
Bob
You are right. GP Banging on about anti-Keynesianism might be the same as Bart Simpson putting a bucket on his head and banging it so he can’t hear something.
Remember GP, 58-42 are the only numbers you need to know.
The leader of the National Party should not describe the Vic bushfires as the “Killing Fields”. They are not the Killing Fields. It’s an insult to the real Killing Fields of Cambodia. It’s a natural disaster. I wish these politicians would just shut up sometimes.
[The Killing Fields were a number of sites in Cambodia where large numbers of people were killed and buried by the totalitarian communist Khmer Rouge regime, during its rule of the country from 1975 to 1979 (see Cambodian genocide).
At least 200,000 people were executed by the Khmer Rouge[1] (while estimates of the total number of deaths resulting from Khmer Rouge policies, including disease and starvation, range from 1.4 to 2.2 million out of a population of around 7 million).[2] In 1979 Vietnam invaded and toppled the Khmer Rouge regime, which was officially called Democratic Kampuchea.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_Fields
Fraser supported all these things too.
126 now dead
We are all Keynesians now!
(Which incidentally was a quote by RICHARD NIXON, a criminal REPUBLICAN President!)
No 199
I don’t hate him – he was a product of his time.
Turnbull happy for now to be in the unhappy spot he expected – http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25026297-5013404,00.html
Only The Australian could come up with such a headline.
Machivellean Howard’s was one of the few governments in the OECD to actually run tertiary education funding into reverse, against an organisation-wide trend of an average increase of 40+%.
Howie clearly didn’t want a populace trained in analysis and critical thinking working against him electorally.
Did you hear Robert McClelland say that the arsonists in Victoria COULD be charged with murder, if it could be proved they had “reckless criminal intent”?
No 201
I have no qualms about those numbers. They are entirely expected.
You are conflating two quotes: “We are all socialists now” (Sir William Harcourt), and “I am a Keynesian economist” (Richard Nixon)
Neither flood nor fire can stay Shanahan’s delusions – http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090209-Stimulus-fire-and-flood.html
And again, only Crikey could come up with such a headline
Yes I did hear him say that. Amazing what populist pressure can do to political and legal judgement. We will see what the courts do if someone is charged with murder for fieresetting.
No 209
McClelland’s pro-Kirby sermon is evidence that he should be sacked immediately for undermining our democracy.
#202 TF
Agree. They should also resist the temptation of all comparisons to war zones, even if the landscapes looks similar.
Of course they were. As I said, yesterday, Turnbull is willing to take a big hit now in the hope that Australia will sink into a severe recession so he can say “I told you so” and climb to power on the ruins.
No 216
But it’s more than that. The opposition has to take a stand on issues, lest it become the Government’s lapdog and thereby stay in opposition until the end of time.
Perhaps it is apocryphal, but that quote has been attributed to Nixon for a long time.
If a politician was ever tempted to say populist things about arsonists, I think today is a suitable day.
Yeah, because we SHOULD NEVER have a high court justice who disagrees with you.
Even by your standards this is hilarious.
No 218
Kirby wanted to govern the nation from the judicial benches. That is undemocratic and should be condemned.
Yeah, they may as well be wrong, rather than be right, and put the country’s interests first.
#217 GP
What stand is that? Turnbull speaks of $200 billion debt but doesn’t mention that under his plan it would be $180 billion debt. He and you are making all this noise over the $20 billion difference, and he would be prepared to spend that $20 billion later anyway.
He was appointed the the High Court by a democratically elected Prime Minister, there is noting undemocratic about it.
If the parliament didn’t like or agree with his judgments, they could over turn them using legislation.
Comparisons are odious but the 1967 Tasmanian fires were devastating too. 62 people died 42 years ago almost to the day and population of the island was very small compared to that of Vic today. I would think that nearly everyone on the island was effected by the events of that day.
The house of a family friend, Leslie Greener, the Egyptologist and author, was lost with much important materials that day although he and the others in the house were safe. I don’t think that he was ever quite the same after that – and he was used to shock and loss having survived Changi.
The risks of living on the interface with the bush are still not fully appreciated.
Did the member for Wannon just say that one of his constituents will donate their $950 to the bushfire victims and he hopes others do the same?
Even though the member for Wannon doesnt think they should happen?
Weird.
Since Hawker’s term as Speaker, I’ve never expected him to make much sense.
>>Kirby wanted to govern the nation from the judicial benches. That is undemocratic and should be condemned.
Judge made law is part of our British heritage. If the parliament wishes to overturn it they may do so subject to the limitations of the Constitution.
More degenerate populist crap, worthy of Spiro Agnew or Joh Bjelke-Petersen. Perhaps GP has never heard of the common law, that great conservative institution based on centuries of judicial opinions?
I don’t think I’ve heard as much crying and emotion shown in Federal parliament since Sergio Vieira de Mello was murdered when the UN building in Iraq was bombed.
No 227
Centuries of judicial opinions that Kirby was only too willing to discard.
And when Keating appointed Kirby, he was considered a moderate Liberal!
His family has donated thousands to both political parties, but a lot more to the Liberals if you include all the Village Roadshow donations.
I look forward to the next Coalition government (in say 10 years time) appointing a Labor lawyer to the high court.
Finding a Native Title right in common law is not discarding common law, it is APPLYING common law.
Adam 211
Are you sure about that? Wikiquote has “We’re all Keynesians now” ascribed to Richard Nixon in 1972.
Incredible account of the fires by Gary Hughes of The Oz:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25026912-2702,00.html
That was the first link I found, but there was no reference. So it is possible it is apocryphal.
The first time I ever heard it was on NPR All Things Considered, late last year in a story about the Bush stimulus package.
But who knows, maybe it has just been past on so many times, but he never actually said it.
And now for the floods…
good grief
Truss wants a stack of cash to fix the roads in Far North Queensland
But of course he doesn’t want a budget deficit.
“I think the $42 billion fiscal rescue package. I think that should be reprioritised because it’s going to take funding of that order.”
Fran Bailey also wants to spend money she “kind of” opposes.
#233
Excellent article, Grog. Saved by their daughter’s plastic spider.
So I guess up next is pestilence…
What a horrible day
You could ask Truss which tax he proposes to raise to pay for it
Seriously though, road maintenance is labor intensive. Also fixing damage from recent disasters, plus taking action to improve our ability to handle heatwaves (power grid, concrete sleepers for train lines) makes sense economically and environmentally.
As for Justice Kirby, I take it that GP was also aghast at Garfield Barwick striking down tax laws in the parliament on the basis that (not common law) he didn’t believe there was an obligation to pay tax? Or is judicial activism only offensive when in support of ideas GP opposes?
The Senate Committee on the stimulus package has resumed. You can watch or listen at the links on this page:
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/eventdetailsSenate.aspx?eventid=1039561
Geez… Fran.
There are things such as insurance aren’t there? I mean yes the Govt will have to spend big to rebuild public infrastructure but $42b?
Whoops, try here:
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx2/hms11v_100K.asx
I would be shocked if total damage was more than a few hundred million at the absolute most.
it looks like Fielding’s coming to the party.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25027434-5005962,00.html
245 – Judith, Newspoll will do that to you.
130 now confirmed dead. Police expect more than 200 eventually.
Audio of Condolence Motion now on Newsradio website.
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/newsradio/audio/20090209-condolence.mp3
Bob–207, that was a Shanahan article, what did you expect???
I can understand the 3 point drop in the L-NP primary vote, but why a 2 point drop in the Green primary?
Do less people think Green when the weeks politics have all been about the economy?
If Turnbull has any brain left in him, or he is brain-dead alrady, he would declare that he would support the Rudd Stimulus Package because this is not time to play politics. This is the time to be united and tackled both crisis as one. Yet declared as well that He reserves the right to criticise and QA the implementation and exceution. If so, they will cheering him from Vacluse to Kinglake waving their $950.
Because the GFC has crowded the GCCC out of the popular mind, which has but a short attention span.
SNIP: Overheated comment deleted – The Management.
Wikiquote is a not a very reliable source. I have a clear memory of Nixon saying “I am a Keynesian economist” or something very close to that at the time of his 1972 wage and price freeze (not at all a Keynesian measure, by the way). But “We are all Keynesians now” is a much snappier quote, building as it does on the earlier “We are all socialists now,” and it has colonised the public memory through endless repetition.
Abetz just got an answer he didn’t like from the Retail Association (where they basically said that the pre-Christmas bonus was still pushing up retail sales in January) – he STFU real quick, looked around sheepishly hoping no one noticed and gave the stage to another Senator!
“I can understand the 3 point drop in the L-NP primary vote, but why a 2 point drop in the Green primary?
Do less people think Green when the weeks politics have all been about the economy?”
I suspect some of the left Labor votes have come back in to the fold when they suddenly realised that there is a government out there that actually gives a damn about the average joe, and not just “working families” and pensioners.
Barnyard is in the Senate Committee asking questions that are little better than non-sequiters, and then sits up all proud of himself as if the answer he just provoked actually means anything.
Honest to god, Joyce is as dumb as a bag of hammers.
lol @ Fifield’s comments, what a Liberal tool.
I think Milton Friedman may of stated “We are all Keynesians now” sometime in the 60s.
Maybe I am wrong.
Yes, I have found several suggestions that Friedman said it (ironically, one presumes), and that pop memory has transferred it to Nixon.
Essential Research: 61-39. Nothing on the stimulus package, but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.
The Finnigans that is a low political argument that in a time of tragedy you pass whatever the Government wants on things unrelated to the disaster…
Rudd’s got Turnbulls support to help the bushfire victims but he wont be bullied into not holding the Govt to account…
Ooh, I’d love to see Doog Cameron lean over and give a Barnaby the Bawbag a wee Glasgow kiss.
Poss “bag of hammers” does not know what affirming the consequent or denying the antecedent mean.
So of course he is happy with his logic.
Glen stop using the bushfires.
Glen, not as low as this:
- From Crikey Subs required.
What too dumb to even put the hammers in a box?
And Rudd needs this?
“15% of Coalition voters prefer Rudd than Turnbull”.
Thats got to hurt.
theres an out of control bushfire near Bordertown Sth. Aust, no homes in it’s path to date.
hmm speaker after speaker at the senate hearing are pleading to the senate to pass the stimulus bills.
lol @ Fielding’s little $950 bonus outburst.
Fielding is even dumber than Joyce, everything has to be spelled out to him bit by bit, he’s still ranting about those losing jobs even though they’d still get the bonus, maybe he thinks he’ll be jobless soon.
Mao 270
Those speakers’ shallow obsession with preserving the quality of life of Australian citizens has blinded them to the needs of the opposition. How can we have a change of government without a recession? Its the recession the Liberal party wants us to have.
This guy in the Senate committee taling for the ATCU is pretty good actually anyone know his name?
ATCU? Make that ACTU.
I take it they’ve done all the Govt Departments, and are now onto private groups?
No 257
Wow, I can get better partisan hackery in the Australian.
The difference being that The Australian stretch the truth.
But Possum has much more spiffy graphs.
GP supports import barriers!
Thinks comparative advantage is a myth.!
Go back to sleep GP, it would help if you were actually listening.
“Wow, I can get better partisan hackery in the Australian.”
Thats what you get there all right. Much better not to buy it.
No 279
No and no.
I think William is more objective.
Aw, that hurts!
No, really – it does! I mean, when a bloke that is defending Barnaby’s idiocy in thinking import barriers are cool and comparative advantage is some high fallutin’ conspiracy – when a bloke like that reckons I’m not objective in calling Barnyard a nutter, well it makes me reach for the tissues.
I suspect a couple of % of the Greens vote will bounce back and forth between the Greens and the ALP, or you could reverse that statement, as time and issues vary.
The key points are what happens to the ALP and Greens primaries, do they go up or down relative to the last election, and therefore possibly/probably the next and what happens to the 2PP.
What is the long term trend within the fluctuations?
So far it seems that both the Greens [somewhat] and the ALP [significantly] have increased their primary support which is good news for both.
Doubtless you can get partisan hackery in the OO, but I will get my informed opinions based on facts and analysis from Poss and elsewhere ta very muchly.
The graphs on the components of spending in the stimulus for example.
Well we have a reasonable story in the Oz.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25029319-12377,00.html
But of course they have to backend it with this crud.
“A Senate inquiry into the spending spree will continue into tonight and is expected to report back tomorrow.”
Spending Spree?
No 284
Tens of billions of deficit spending can only be described as a “spending spree”.
No 282
I did not defend his idiocy. I don’t agree with his agrarian socialism.
And treasury, the IMF, the OECD, and the vast majority of economists defend the so-called “spending spree”.
Hang about – you were just calling criticism of Barnyard over his agrarian socialism “partisan hackery” not two posts before.
Concentrate GP – you’re wandering.
The drop in Green support could be due to people seeing them as part of the opposition to their $950 bonus
“Spending spree” is clearly a pejorative expression and should not be in a news article. Another goosd reason not to read The Australian.
vera
I don’t think the Greens opposed the $950 bonus. The Greens just aren’t seen as relevant in the setting of a financial crisis.
Brumby has announced a Royal Commission into the bushfires.
bob
A higher proportion of the population supported Workchoices than the Marj. Both of them are/were inept, poorly thought through and badly sold policies.
vera
I considered that view – but I doubt it The Greens have said they want to improve the stimulus package not oppose it.
I think the “core” Green support is about 8% with 3% flitting between them and the ALP. Depending on the current political issues.
The main game is L-NP primary support which needs a 4 in front of it for them to be competitive.
Did Dennis Shanahan really write this?
So coalition voters don’t like Rudd as much as ALP voters! What a scoop. Hold that front page Dennis!!!!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25026297-5013871,00.html
The Greens are so frustrating!
They ask this environmental economist guy how many extra jobs will be created if the public housing must be of a high energy star rating. But of course they don’t bother asking how much extra upfront costs this will add, and thus how many fewer houses will be built.
I know they are just trying to push their agenda, but if they took a more balanced view of things they could be much more effective at actually getting good outcomes.
Aren’t Coalition voters the ones who already support Turnbull?
Doesn’t Turnbull actually have to win Labor voters?
LOL!
I think young Dennis is referring to those Libs who deserted the party at the last election.
Grog,
Amazing insight. However, Rudd was more popular with Lib voters than Nelson and that is probably one of the reasons he was flicked. I know it’s baby steps, but at least the Libs now have a leader who Libs prefer.
That’s pretty funny Greeny!
i do love Doug Cameron’s accent.
the witnesses dont seem to be giving the coalition any ammunition to use, in fact the consensus seems to be do it and do it NOW!!!!
Lord Downer slams Rudd’s ’spendathon’ in his column in today’s Tiser. Andrew Bolt’s column will be coming to the ‘Tiser this week. Jeff Kennett and Christopher Pyne attacked the stimulus plan in Sunday Mail columns on Sunday.
What’s going on?
Rupert’s being pretty stupid. He’s just lost $US10 billion and advertising revenue is slumping, yet his dopey editors are spreading messages of doom and gloom which will inevitably exacerbate the recession.
You have to spell his name “Doog”
Shanners is just a clown these days. I really wonder if he writes anything himself anymore, or just gets it straight from the Liberal Party trough and does a cut & paste.
who the hell is this dill on now?????
is he a coalition stooge?
Well it would be apt if the final straw that sent Murdoch down the gurgler was his toxic media trying to sink Rudd and thus not protect the economy.
Funny that the Liberal Murdoch boys are busy tryting to write themselves out of employment. But no doubt some would rather go down with the ship than admit defeat.
JB, he is from the institute of public affairs – a liberal perty aligned body. He is a joke.
Tom
The guy from the IPA is Sinclair Davidson. He might have a funny accent and folks here might not like his politics – but he’s certainly not an idiot.
Anyone disagree with this scenario? – The Senate Committee hands down its report – with a dissenting report from the L-NP.
The Greens establish that the new buildings must be energy efficient and agree that current building regulations should be followed – this will be proclaimed as a win for them.
Senator Fielding will be happy that the Senate is not a rubber stamp, he will trumpet his attempt to help the unemployed.
Senator Xenaphon will be happy that the Murray-Darling is mentioned in the report, not that anything is done, just as a reminder that he is from SA.
Then on Thursday the bills will be passed, The Greens, FF and X will claim a great victory and vindication for the will of the Senate.
Meanwhile Malcolm emits a huge sigh of relief as a possible DD is averted.
sorry Possum he sounded like one, what he says flies in the face of all the other evidence, actually what he was saying echoes Turnbulls policy if you can call it that, is he Turnbull’s adviser? pity no questions were allowed.
spot on ruawake, i think the coalition would wet themselves if the package was rejected.
That guy previous to this one on the phone was wrong on his claim that $1.00 tax cuts would stimulate $3.00. I read that same quote but the opposite. stimulus would invigorate the economy for every $1.00 spent $3.00 will previously on one of the US blogs but can’t remember which one.
just one of the sources when I googled tax cuts v stimulus
http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2009/02/12147_spending_vs_tax_cuts_as_stimulus.html
The takeaway? Food stamps, unemployment benefits, and infrastructure investment put the most money back into the economy for every dollar spent on them. Tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy do the least.
Possum, he may be otherwise an intelligence fellow when he isn’t allowing his politics cloud his judgement. He stated that there is no proof suppporting the effectiveness of cash handouts in…
Tom.
The Alfred Hospital says it has 20 patients with burns to more than 30% of their body. No hospital can look after that amount of major burns patients. I’m very surprised they aren’t decanting to other states. We would be sending them out in SA.
ruawake,
As with anything, there are a few gaps in the Government’s package.
By the Independents and Greens supporting the package overall, I think Labor will have conceded that the unemployed, pensioners and some Green issues will be a focus in the May budget.
Does the Royal Melbourne Children’s Hospital have Burns Unit, if so, why aren’t the Teenage patients being sent there ?
In a review of a book titled The Best Book on the Market: How to Stop Worrying and Love the Free Economy, Sinclair Davidson asks “Why is it so hard to sell the free market?”, and responds “The answer is likely due to the pseudo-intellectual rigour of the alternatives.”
He also mentions that “This is a book that everyone should read – preferably at a young age.”
So, there you go. Definitely not an idiot.
Diog
You are the expert, does % burns plus age indicate the likelyhood of survival?
ie
30% burns at seventy = 100 = not good.
30% burns at twenty = 50 = a bit better?
WOW! The Professor talking now thinks there should be a new Accord.
But aren’t the cash payments a kind of way to convince people not to go for large wage claims?
Adam @ 289:
In fairness, it’s actually an AAP article.
Speaking of Andrew Bolt Toorak Toff, (and believe me I do not really like to). I just remembered that last week he attacked Clive Hamilton for daring to say that climate change had in fact already killed people.
If my memory is right Mr Bolt said that it is the cold that kills people not the heat.
I wonder if he’s going to revise that argument in the wake of this weekend?
At the press conference where he announced the package last week, Rudd strongly hinted that the government is already working on a plan to deal with the rise in unemployment.
http://www.pm.gov.au/media/Interview/2009/interview_0793.cfm
I bet you London to a brick they did not pen the spending spree tag.
Perhaps he means a Honda Accord?
You got to love Saul Eslake, he ALWAYS sounds like some kind of economics robot.
Sorry if this has allready been mentioned but it is yet more evidence of what a dill feilding is
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/leaders-see-rescue-package-full-of-ideology/2009/02/08/1234027847287.html
Eslake’s submission was the best IMO.
spending spree is a better term than that ridiculous cash splash, whoever thought that one cute is a moron.
Offtopic rant re media coverage of the Bushfires – from a WA perspective.
I’m utterly amazed at how crass Ch 7 Perth are in sending Newsreader Rick Ardon(who only lost his father last week) over to Victoria to do live crosses to the local Bulletin.
And Barcelona Tonight are ramping up the frenzy comparing overseas to local aid.
Free _Australian built_ Hondas for everyone!
“Aren’t Coalition voters the ones who already support Turnbull?
Doesn’t Turnbull actually have to win Labor voters?”
He has to win back the 22% of those in Newspoll who vote Liberal (in 2PP terms at least) but who don’t back him as Preferred PM.
Then, he can move on to swinging, and Labor voters.
Is John Garnaut who writes for The Age Ross Garnaut’s son? Are there any other economics writers who look like fashion models?
Chris Richardson, Access Economics.
LOL!
“Retail group urges stimulus vouchers instead of cash.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2486668.htm?section=justin
I can think of at least a dozen reasons why this is the dumbest suggestion put before the Senate Committee.
Just one for now – those vouchers will have a cash value – less than face value. “I will buy your $950 voucher from you for $700 cash because you need the cash.
So someone with disposable cash gets a bargain – the person who needs the cash gets screwed. Dumb.
Poor Dr Henry copping a grilling by the LNP idiots again.
He looks totally exaspirated?
ruawake, the committee have already been told by public service that the technology not there for the voucher idea. I don’t why the retail guy kept on banging on about it
Watch this video on Strathewen (30 dead out of 200). It’s shocking.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/strathewen-like-a-war-zone-20090209-81w0.html?page=2
“Poor Dr Henry copping a grilling by the LNP idiots again.
He looks totally exaspirated?”
I don’t blame him. I’m surprised he’s not more exhausted after hours of questions by the economic luddites known as the Liberal/National coalition.
Frank now ch9 are doing it. Dixie Marshall has been flown over I believe
Dr Henry back again… plus the guy will have to front up for senate estimates in the next couple of weeks again…
Below is a link to the paper by Professor Taylor, the Stanford Economist that Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition are so enamoured of at the moment. I believe it is the one that they are referring to as evidence that cash handouts do nothing to stimulate the economy.
However, when I look at Figure 10, which is supposed to be the graphical evidence of same, I don’t come to the same conclusions as the good professor. I see a gentle rise and then tapering off of expenditure after the cash injection from the government.
I’d be interested to hear what Crikey’s resident graph guru, Possum had to say about it.
http://www.nber.org/papers/w14631.pdf
Next they’ll be sending Fat Cat to do live crosses (which would be interesting)
Trivia: Dixie is the daughter of former State Liberal MP for Dawesville, Tennis legend Arthur Marshall.
ahhh Friedman Vouchers
In some circumstances maybe appropriate.
For this situation., not practical. Speed is the key.
No doubt he is exhausted from the strain of having to keep his temper in face of such arrant stupidity. I want to see more of Mr Thune from PM&C. He managed to convey withering contempt without once saying anything political or ever being less than civil. It was masterful.
I’m gonna say it – twitter is not an effective way to report news – here’s Caroline Overington going through the fire area:
nothing like reducing horror to a text message…
http://twitter.com/overingtonc
try listening to Gary Hughes instead to hear real horror:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25026912-2702,00.html
Abit late to this thread but I had to comment on this:
GB @ 210:
Do you realise, GB, that you have been writing almost this exact post since December 2006? That’s over TWO YEARS! When are you going to wake up to the fact that your guys lost and are busying themselves plunging even further down the gurgle hole of history?
LOL BB!
The polls have actually been like this since Rudd assumed the Labor leadership in December 2006.
It’s now February 2009.
When oh when will a coalition supporter’s horror end…
why is Abetz splitting hairs when he says time is short, he’s bloody arrogant he’s just about sneering at the witness.
Regarding the drop in The Greens vote, all the comments regarding the GFC taking precedence are probably correct, but the drop is within the margin of error.
You have to admit age does bring a certain amount of gravitas, when Senator Ryan talks to Henry, it sounds very much like student talking to teacher…
Abetz wants to know the multiplier of PJK’s working nation?? Oh I do like a relevant quesiton…
Abetz – “An aggregate says to me some things have been aggregated”. What a fool of a thing.
Tom.
ruawake
It really scares me sometimes how much you know about medicine, esp outside of your field, so to speak.
Age plus % burn is a good rough way of working out prognosis. If it adds up to more than 100% it’s bad news. You can add about 20% for each pre-existing medical condition.
The other main determinant of survival is whether the patient has an airway burn, ie if their lungs are burnt. That is a poor sign which adds about 30% to the chance of dying.
So if the Alfred has twenty patients, say 40 years average and at least 30% burn area and ten or so with airway burns, the staff, patients and relatives are in for a torrid time. We had seven patients like that after Bali and that was bad enough (our Burns Unit is about the same size as the Alfred’s).
Frank
The RMC doesn’t have a Burns Unit (technically the Alfred doesn’t either to be brutally honest, as it isn’t a stand-alone facility so it’s a Burns Service). Your point is excellent and obviously the RMC can look after big burns as they get all the children. If they only have a few kids, you could argue strongly that teenagers should be transferred to the RMC.
Grog, Gary and i know each other quite well though we havnt been in contact for a couple of years, i’m just so grateful he managed to get his family out alive.
I wonder if Abetz, “bag of hammers” et al have realised that possibly more people are watching their inanity than ever before.
Senate enquiries have been as boring as bat shite in the past, maybe some people watched estimates online.
They may have been able to hide before but the intertubes have given people access to their irrelevance.
Senate Committe questioning tango
1) Senator Abetz asks a question
2) Dr Gruen provides an answer that Abetz doesn’t like
3) Senator Abetz asks the same question again using different words
4) Dr Gruen uses different words to provide the same answer that Abetz doesn’t like
Abetz the idiot. “I’ve been asked to vote for this package and I would like to have qualified answers to these questions.”
I thought Turnbull had instructed them to vote against the package!
Diogenes – Would it be better for burns doctors to fly there, or is it a case of the hospital itself can’t cope and thus the patients need to be sent elsewhere?
oh christ Barnaby…
scorpio, spot on the whole exercise is wasted on these dills, they’re not voting for it anyway, that is unless they have a brainstorm and cross the floor.
I love it when Barnaby asks a question and the Treasury guys look at each other with an expretion of “ok whoever understood that one, gets to go first”.
Dio, is it just interhospital politics? it seems a silly reason to protect your turf if patients need more care.
Joyce just pointed ou tthat replies to Questions on Notice are “quite brief”. I guess he thinks the dept will say more than they need to … dill
I find it much easier to understand Ron than I do with Barnaby’s incomprehensible ramblings.
I think he wants them to be peer reviewed.
Oh geez, the Greens are now on a “temporary” reduction of the GST.
Even Costello saw the futility of this idea
in barnaby’s case that would be batpoop wouldn’t it?
Sounds like the Greens want the cash taken away people who earn between $80,000 and $100,000 and given to unemployed and otherwise ineligible people on low incomes (i.e. people that didn’t pay any tax in 2007/8)
The Greens are at their least convincing when they put on their Karl Marx false beards and talk about economics. They should stick to green issues where they have credibility and a good case to put.
Lets look at Barnaby’s (I prefer bag of hammers – but William rules
) peer review questions.
Now where does this argument originate from? Climate Change. He read something somewhere that scientific papers need to be peer reviewed. But could not really understand the concept – I suggest Nature is not on his reading list.
So his braincell decides peer reviewed = good stuff, so if Treasury (who are not in the business of getting papers published in Scientific Journals) says stuff that is not peer reviewed thats bad.
Sorry Possum – a bag of hammers has a higher IQ – I will refrain from using the term from now on. Out of respect for bags and hammers.
Oh Adam you Labor Right factionoid. The Greens opinions are valid as much as anyone elses.
Just as long as they don’t constantly ignore the fact that environmental measures often have upfront costs, even if they lead to savings down the track. Too often in this Committee the Greens pretend that making houses more energy efficient doesn’t make them more expensive at least initially.
Utterly off topic, but you might be interested in what NZ Prime Minister John Key got up to on the weekend. And no it’s not a haka.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/02/times-are-a-cha.html
But too often they pretend that there are only upsides to certain environmental measures, and seem to pretend that in the short term they may require additional spending.
If they took all the costs and benefits into account they would be able to craft more persuasive policies that the major parties couldn’t so easily reject.
We just got spammed by Antony Green!
Fielding is talking about an 88 year old war veteran who does charity work so he doesn’t pay tax.
Why is Fielding reading out emails? Ask some freaking questions.
Bet the veteran got $1400 last Dec.
From the start, I know NOTHING about such things. However I think Dio said the other day the main problem is intensive ongoing nursing care. (I know thats badly phrased, but that was the gist of it I think)
I can reliably report that, as usual, media reporting is of a terrible standard. Very few of the burns patients have burns greater than 30%, contrary to the media reports. So they should do well as a group. I’m also reliably informed that they have enough resources. So that’s excellent news.
Flying a surgeon over would only help a bit. The surgery is only a small part of a burns patients care. The nurses are more important. Then there is ICU, physio, OT, social work, psychology etc.
I might as well mention it now. There will be a horrendous number of cases of PTSD after this. The survivors and their friends/families, firefighters, police, army, hospital staff and their administrators will all be surviving on adrenaline at the moment and when that subsides, the next crisis will happen. Many of the media covering it will get PTSD as well.
He is positioning himself for the next election – Family First is the party that cares about the unemployed. Stands out like dogs whatsits.
When you are staring at losing your job after six years, I guess I can’t blame him.
ShowsOn
More accurately, some environmental measures (eg. solar hot water, domestic photo voltaic) have long break-even periods when funded at commercial interest rates and repaid by electricity savings to justify the additional initial cost premium. However houses funded by this stimulus package would be funded at the lowest interest rates possible (government bond rates) and be expected to be held in a portfolio for a long time. And the resultant house might have a bit more status than the usual stigma associated with public housing.
Agred, this will haunt many forever. I would hope that a good deal of Govt $$$ goes towards ongoing psychciatric/psychological care even those who’s houses survived would no doubt struggle.
Henry just mentioned “fungible” not sure if that was on anyone’s senate inquiry drinking game bingo, but if so – bottoms up!
Fungible!
Been waiting days for that. Will Barnyard now ask “what’s mushrooms got to do with it?”
I can now understand why Ken Henry prefers the company of Hairy nosed wombats to liberal party hacks
Tom..
Geez, Channel Nine is running late with Underbelly… but at least this is better viewing than Vince Colismo’s “Customs”
Certainly, but the Greens completely ignore the fact that EITHER a) the government will have to spend more money up front, so each house becomes more expensive, or b) the government will have to build fewer houses.
The Greens pretend that there are NO downsides, and NO additional costs. If they really want these public houses to be 5 or 6 start energy rated, they should ask how much that will cost, then try to find equivalent savings in another part of the package.
If they did that then they may get their amendment up, and get those houses built, without the Liberals complaining about the government spending even more money.
4 Corners tonight is on how the financial crisis is directly effecting Australian mortgage holders.
Possum,
Probably, he’s in the dark feeding on bullsh….
“Shovel Ready”
Everyone skol
then Dio the injured would be better off near family and friends and perhaps sharing hospital space with familiar people?
Barnaby’s been hiding in the Tardis! Doesn’t know what year it is
Abetz thought he had a gotcha and bugga it wasnt, Barnaby’s back and doesnt even know what year he wants.
Poor Dr Henry covering his face so that Barnaby can’t see his exasperation. (or maybe laughter at the inaneness of the questioning)
Barnaby back in the tardis. Wants to know what every measure “WILL” achieve in the future.
Dolt!
JB
They’re better off where they are IMHO, given that the media reports are wrong. During Bali, not all patients were sent to their State-of-Origin (of our seven, only one was from SA). It was pretty tough on their relatives.
Judith Barnes @ 66
robf.
it’s in this article.
Thanks for the link – sorry for the late thanks
“Is there a point number that is the multiplier”
No! Two days has been spent explaining how it depends on how much people spend and when (not only for the cash payments, but the churn from the construction and infrastructure). It has gone in one ear and out the other.
Deary me – life isnt a spreadsheet Senators!
Since we can’t decompose the package!! Barnaby strikes again – from tardis to compost!
We went to our local shopping centre today.
Its 45 kms away.
We went about 1pm because not only are the shops open but so is the recycling place. Its not open all the time so we try to coordinate the two when we plan our shopping trips.
So we can get rid of our plastic etc and net about 7$.
Course we could do a separate trip, 90 kms round, but that would be ineffecient and uneconomic use of time petrol etc.
And we went to the dump as well, we don’t have pick up cos we are rural, and the dump is open today. Its not open every day.
And we take the opportunity of doing more than one desirable activity which has to be done sooner or later in coordination with the other[s].
Efficiency.
What’s all this about?
Its an attempt to explain why the Greens are trying to kill 2 or more birds with one and a bit stones by coordinating necessary/desirable activities in an economically efficient way when the opportunity arises.
Instead of driving to town 3 times.
That is what I hate. Nearly all of the Senators want a definitive answer, they like want PROMISES made with 100% certainty. But they don’t realise how hard it is to measure the present circumstances, then essentially predict the future.
And So off goes Henry and Gruen to a have a few drinks and take the piss out of Barnaby.
i would have thought it would help with recovery to be among family and friends, the encouragement of family to try harder or go one step further would be incalculable.
They’ll need more than a few drinks after that.
a couple of strong long scotches should do the trick teamed up with a relaxing well earned dinner.
Unfortunately they have half a dozen answers to write before midday tomorrow, so I imagine they’ll be in the treasury building until midnight.
ShowsOn
They’re politicians. They live on promises. They make them all the time. They make precise, unambiguous, verifiable promises. Then, if they don’t win, they don’t keep them. If they do win, they don’t keep them. But they’re still good for using next time.
Promises are the currency of politics.
SHOW ME THE PROMISE.
You want the promise? You want the promise? You can’t handle the promise!
Who says senior Public Servants don’t earn their paypackets.
I reckon it is Senator Joyce who needs a good stiff drink. To think that he is the Leader of the National Party in the Senate.
The Greens, FF and X have at least asked questions – some better than others.
Abetz has done what he normally does – but at least the was no “Excuse me Senator” moment.
Senator Joyce, well what can you say – did he earn his salary today?
The Coalition parties have got absolutely nothing from this committee.
What ammo do they have to talk about in parliament tomorrow? Nothing. Yet the government has a heap of quotes from all sorts of organisations Treasury, finance, ACTU, ACOSS, and a few private economists that they can use in Question Time.
I’ve never known what a “valid opinion” means. If you mean they have the same right to have opinions as anyone else, of course they do. If you mean their opinions are equally correct as everyone else’s, or course they’re not. I was making a tactical point. The Greens are the most persuasive when they talk about green issues, on which they are well-informed, and (usually) right. When they talk economics they lapse into old 1970s student left cliches, especially Brown who bangs on about “the big end of town” and similar cliches, and they weaken their credibility. I’m trying to be helpful
Back to being anxious about some of the rellies again with the change and strenghtening in wind direction. At least we have good comms now.
One set of rellies survived by just three minutes. The fire and falling trees came through three minutes after they got out. Basically saved by the SES. We are very grateful.
One farm (mostly) saved by the CFA. We are very grateful.
One house and land gone. Bad luck. The firies did their best, but no go. We are grateful for their attempts.
One house with everything burnt around it but the house. House had been evacuated. Embers had actually gone in under the door and burned holes in the lino but had then gone out. Good luck there.
One set of contractions started seven weeks prem – but relevant rellie and three friends saved. They were staying at the Cumberland in Marysville. Told to go, they went. Some more lives saved by the firies. We are very grateful.
One set of rellies within ten minutes of bad trouble but the wind change came in just in time.
Just two sets of rellies waiting it out in front of fire fronts now.
An opinion supported by facts.
Not true Senator Joyce will be asking his staff if Fungible has been peer reviewed.
LOL! Point taken. I can hear it echoing through the halls of parliament house: “ARE THE PINK BATTS FUNGIBLE!?”
Boerwar
Not good news but much better than it could have been, hope the rellies do OK.
Adam, you and the other Labor Right factionoids are a disgrace to historical Labor. And I say that in the nicest possible way
What do you mean “historical Labor”? The one that supported the White Australia policy, and stealing Aboriginal children from their parents?
Insider comment from Victoria on the burns patients. There’s ten in intensive care at the Alfred who are critical, and there’s a good chance they’ll survive physically, there’s about 400 hundred burns patients across the State. All the major hospitals have rejigged to optimise response according to specific skills and expertise. Let me assure you, no-one is mucking around, and if we needed to take people out of State, or bring expertise from inter – State, it would happen. We’re organised to provide whatever mental health response is needed.
It s***s me to tears that creatures such as Bree talk about Rudd trying to cry. Speaks volumes about why you wouldn’t vote for them.
Diognese @ 377
Not sure about PTSD but am just about weeping with distress right now.
Harry I am sure that if anybody had listened to all the sad stories Rudd has been told we’d be in tears too. I dont think Rudd played a trick on us at all, i think he is genuinely in shock at the loss we Victorians have suffered.
God Howard and Downer were drawn to tears on several occasions but they werent criticised for their sorrow during times of great loss….
Regarding Labor Right and Adam there is much the ALP Right and the Liberal left have in common…
It’s not O.K., Boerwar, but hey are alive. I’m saying the same thing to myself, while I still wait to hear what has happened to two close friends and their young children.
My Dad lives in a nursing home. Inmates of another nursing home which was in the way a fire were evacuated. So his nursing home had double the normal number of people in it and that people were sleeping in the corridors on mattresses. He said it was wonderful the way that staff organized everything and looked after anybody. There will a lot of people doing lots of things quietly in their own spheres but wonderfully well right now.
As I have said before. Australia has the best Health System in the World. Sure it could be better but I will leave that for another time.
I am sick and tired of people (politicians) using our Health system to score cheap points. All sides.
Other thing, Boerwar, tell your rellies, if they can see evidence of a fire, get the hell out. Now.
Did someone criticise Rudd for showing emotion?
Boerwar
Almost any response is normal in the short-term. I’ll defer to HSO for any further advice.
HSO
Is there a short and long-term counselling response planned?
Boerwar,
I stayed at the Cumberland Marysville July 2006 on a work conference where we actually got to take our families. The kids spent the time in the pool or playing croquet on the lawn – so much better than the usual workfest.
Mum is at Beechworth – (used to live at Stanley) – and two Auntys at Thorpdale (near Mirboo Nth). I luckily haven’t actually lost anyone/thing, but feeling a bit tense/empty.
The devastation you see on TV, combined with the six degrees of separation, can occasionally almost bring on tears.
I don’t doubt that Rudd and Brumby’s tears are genuine as they reflect on what they have seen, as I wouldn’t doubt Turnbull or Costello’s tears if they also toured the area. Talk of put-on tears – as appeared previously on this post – are crap.
I am sympathetic to a lot of the greens causes but I have to say that the temporary GST cut is a STUPID idea. How will we even know if it is passed on? It will be worse than the change to fuel taxes, with currency fluctuations, and a price difference of a maximum of 10%. How will that save anything? If a drop in interest rates from 75 to 4% can’t save a business, then a small temporary drop in GST certainly won’t. And again, unless the cut were passed on customers won’t benefit and no extra activity will be generated. Meanwhile, government income, and its ability to stimulate activity, will decline. Sorry, Stupid.
“What do you mean “historical Labor”? The one that supported the White Australia policy, and stealing Aboriginal children from their parents?”
All parties and practically all politicians did. I’m proud of what historical Labor achieved for working Australians.
Sorry I meant interest rate decline from 7% to 4%. Typo
And I reply with equal niceness: historical Labor is dead. The modern Labor Party lives.
I was sobbing watching the TV news programs earlier tonight!
Some of those stories are truly heartbreaking!
It takes a lot to get me at all emotional.
I doubt Rudd was faking it, neither was Turnball or any of the other politicians.
We’re all in a state of shock and grief.
Listening to ABC radio this morning – a woman called to say she was packing a bag for her husband (a trained trauma councillor) as he was leaving from Brisbane to fly to Victoria, the call ended early because the cab arrived to take him to the airport.
ShowsOn – Bree did.
One economist said the best way to do it would be to just let business collect the GST, but not give it to ATO for a year.
The businesses could choose to either lower prices, or increase their margins to keep staff on.
Sounds like a risky strategy to me. What if they get so worried that they just save all the cash, and cut staff levels anyway?
Glen
You’re right. Downer was understandably distressed after the plane went down in Indonesia. Howard was also much like Rudd after Port Arthur and Bali. It does show that they are all human. Howard was great in his response to Port Arthur and Bali.
Oh, big deal, no one takes her seriously.
Yeah Adam, now we have factional daleks running Labor more concerned about their own positions and power than running a good political party. Joy.
Downer cried in the House on the day Sergio Vieira de Mello had been murdered.
HSO
We feel very fortunate given what we have heard of what rellies and friends witnessed first hand. Terrible stuff and Diogenese is absolutely right, a lot of people will need some pretty serious counselling for a while to come. We hope that relief packages will include good provision for the counselling. We hope your friends are OK. I think the kids are the worst of it. Some of the rellies class mates did not make it.
On a lighter note: Was just talking to one of my rellies who is just now the path of one of the rejuvenated fire fronts, wind strengthening and smoke thickening.
Had she packed? Did she know what she was going to? (just checking)
Yes, she knew what she was going to do: sit in the river which is exactly what she and the family had done in 1969 when fires last burnt the place. Was she packed ready for the trip to the river? Yep. Credit cards. ID papers. And a bottle of wine.
There are some great factional operators too, Feeney, Arbib, Butler.
Paul Barry’s piece on Four Corners is pretty good. Its a bit biased in that a lot of the talking is to money market types who are the most scared because of their own past stupidity. 90% of normal people in normal jobs will be OK. I wish he didn’t talk to Robert Gottleibsen who I heard say some silly things before the last election. Governments should get on with funding the things that are needed, generate employment, and the rest will take care of itself. Yes a lot of people have lost their retirement savings. Sorry but its gone; start again. Retirement at 55 was always a pyramid scheme anyway. Thats not to say that the guilty shouldn’t be prosecuted.
Mind, after seeing this show, I wonder if anyone in the coalition privately still believes blocking the stimulus was clever. They will never admit they were wrong but all the evidence, both pesonal/anecdotal and statistical, says they got it wrong. If anything according to 4C, things are worse than the govt has been saying not better, thus the stimulus is more needed not less.
Ho-hum, usual tripe. Labor’s record of electoral success over the past 20 years is the best in its history.
Diogenes, and other interested people, we are still dealing with active fires, three biggies in terms of major threat, so our immediate response has been to find out who has been immediately affected by loss of people/homes, and who needs an immediate response. Usually, you would be able to tell from people’s immediate reaction and how they responded as to what future intervention may be required. BUT. This is not an “ordinary” traumatic event. Firstly, it is an ongoing traumatic event, the fires haven’t stopped, people are still missing, more loss may occur. We’ll have to calibrate our respponse according to how it unfolds.
HSO
We have discussed the pros and cons of skedaddling with them. I know what I would be doing, but it is their decision. Some of my rellies stayed and saved homes and farm animals by staying. Others left and only survived because they left, so I wouldn’t be telling the rellies to do anything. They are pretty clued in and experienced – they have all survived previous fires and several have firefighting experience, as I do, and, in the end, it is their call.
We had a bit of a laugh about one of the locals who has packed bags and has driven to Sydney to get away from the fires.
robf @ 425
We had our wedding reception at the Cumberland. It was at the end of January. There had been a long drought and it rained like buggery at the wedding and during the reception. You could hardly hear yourself talk inside the Cumberland. There were a lot of farm folk at the reception and I don’t think you could ever have had a happier group of people that a wedding and reception were doused in water.
Yes that is very silly. Paris would be much safer.
They better not let let anything happen to Stanley – it’s the best Labor booth in Indi.
“Ho-hum, usual tripe. Labor’s record of electoral success over the past 20 years is the best in its history.”
Exactly the sort of view one expects from Labor Right. Positions, positions, positions, power, power, power.
robf @ 425
Glad your rellies are OK.
As for the politicians crying, I don’t mind it.
“Only the impotent are pure.” – Gough Whitlam, historical Labor figure.
AIC @ 447
LOL
Possum and others watching that live feed from the Senate. I learn’t twon things from it after listening for hours on Friday and today.
1. It is frustrating as frustrating could be, with the exception of having to sit in one of those chairs being asked those questions but that bunch of, well err …
2. Turning it off, going out onto the veranda and watching the waves, eating the Thai/Indian and Pizza takeaway (mixed family, everybody want’s something else)
and generally bitching about our respective days. (work@work/school@school) The smoke covering the stars was a hell of a lot more more interesting 
Just a suggestion
You’re right, Boerwar, people have to call it for themselves based on their knowledge and so on. I suppose my somewhat panicked response was in relation to unusual fire behaviour evident in these bushfires (and the Canberra fires), or rather mega fires. It appears that these mega fires cannot be fought and you’re better off running away. Guess your rellies will need to call it as they see it. Hope they’re O.K.
Boerwar @ 444
On top of every other thing that’s going on – and I know it doesn’t even come near to the rest of the stuff that’s going on in VIC – on a personal note, I’m sorry your wedding reception/anniversary building has gone, as I’m sorry my best work fest ever building – and the town that surrounded it – has gone.
Very sombre
Much discussion about arsonists. What about stupidity, selfishness or depraved indifference. How to prevent this sort of event. Maybe we should include cigarettes in total fire ban days?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25026941-5018722,00.html
HSO, it’s all relative, i fretted because i’m having a couple of professional visitors tomorrow to talk things over and i can feel a sword over my head dropping down another couple of notches, i want it to drop and i’m terrified of it dropping, i keep telling myself i dont know if i can do this again, then yesterday happened and put things back into perspective, i could kick myself for being a stupid wimp, heres people who’ve lost families and homes and beloved friends, these folk face years of trauma and rebuilding and there i was whining, i cant ever imagine what those people will be facing in the future, i can only grieve a little for them, my dad used to have a saying–i cried because i had no shoes till i met a man who had no feet, my dad was a very wise man.
Spit the difference!
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s2486772.htm
Wasn’t there a median strip on a Sydney highway that went up in flames on Saturday, because a passing driver threw a cigarette butt out the window?
If tomorrow is a “take one path or another”, day for you, Judith, and the experience is that of a sword descending on you… Listen to what they say, have some one there to take notes for you, tell them you’ll get back to them when you’ve thought about it. Don’t let them railroad you.
Much pyro-hysteria bordering on McCarthyism. Most bushfires are caused by lightning.
Folks,
Just now, I think Brumby’s doing a seriously good job.
I didn’t see his TV address to the state, so I can’t comment there, but in everything else I’ve seen he has been quitely competent and very impressive.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNIeRz5gxj0&feature=related
Mr Squiggle,
Here is the video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNIeRz5gxj0
Adam,
Great Minds etc
Adam,
Might be the case. However, there are also many started by human intervention whether deliberate or otherwise. I am pretty sure all bushfires regardless of their source of ignition can cause damage and kill.
The question is how do we avoid/reduce the heartache in future.
hmm, Andrew Bolt is one of the guests on a wbchat on the Australian Story episode tonight regarding Climate Change.
Be Afraid, VERY Afraid.
This clips of him in the Australian Story episode were hilarious, he was being schooled, and was coming up with these ridiculous excuses.
It was kind of like a Senate estimates committee with Bolt in the Barnaby/Fielding role.
HSO, it’s not quite like that unfortunately, i’m powerless and will have no say as they bring me up to date on things, these people are really wonderful to me but they have a job to do as well and they have to do it regardless, if the sword drops they’ll be there for me and mine as much as possible but they can only protect us so far, my youngest daughter did a bunk interstate and there she’ll stay, i miss her but cant blame her neither she never had a childhood from 12 years old and suffers severe health problems from the stress, the rest of the family will close ranks on the outside world for a while–but we’ll survive, we’re survivers, ours is only a flea bite to what those Victorians are going through and besides i can always escape in here and hide out, thanks for the advice.
ShowsON, bugga and i missed it.
Thank you Adam and Frank, but I actually missed Brumby’s address on purpose.
Please just accept an acknowledgment of his good leadership from someone who will never vote ALP..
Not according to this study, if I’m reading it right…
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi2/tandi350.pdf
The three legged cat thinks Andrew Bolt is a dolt. I’ve just run a scientifically tight experiment, double blind, peer reviewed, and the cat reckons he’s an idiot. We can run regression analyses on that, or not.
“Ann Coulter Under Investigation For Voter Fraud”
There is a god after all…
Adam in Canberra
http://www.aic.gov.au/publications/tandi2/tandi350.html
Australian Institute of Criminology
Apologies for the crappy formatting.
Hmm. Maybe the figures I remember seeing related to *forest* fires only.
If you have broadband you can watch it here:
http://www.abc.net.au/austory/
Or, you can watch it replayed on ABC1 Saturday at 12:30 PM. Or if you have digital TV, tomorrow night at 8 PM it will be on ABC2.
In other news, tomorrow at 6:55 PM on ABC1, Quentin Bryce is going to address the nation regarding the bush fires and flooding.
O.K. Judith. I’ll hope for things to turn out well for you and your family.
Surely you accept we were referring to fires started by PEOPLE, not lightning.
Whilst this event was not a direct result of climate change, however climate change makes such events more likely. Droughts, higher temperatures and extreme wind will increase these events from being ten, twenty year events to either every couple of years to every year. And unfortunately as the planet heats up which it will, generally their is very little mankind can now due to the amount of carbon in the atmosphere and it is increasing significantly. Personally the world due to our actions is in trouble.
In Victoria over the last five years big fires have been occurring nearly every year. This never occurred in the 80″s and 90’s. The temperature on Saturday in Victoria was nearly one degree higher on record is that not serious, and temperature each year continues to increase on average.. No matter how we spin it we must start doing something about climate change and quickly.
Just to add…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2485757.htm
Queen offers sympathies to bushfire victims
I’m alarmed at how quickly the commentary on the fires has morphed into competitive politician/commentator outrage about arsonists, when it has not been established that these fires were deliberately lit. When you have a week of record temperatures and high winds in a state of 5 million people, you will have fires.
Adam, as that research paper showed, the suspicion of arsonists is not based on nothing
How many lightning strikes were there in Victoria over the weekend?
HSO, thankyou, if the sword drops in the next few months we’ll handle it, it’s been there for a long time but only recently has it started to move, i guess we just got a bit soft with the peace and quiet and i’ve decided after yesterday to stop feeling sorry for myself, maybe things wont be so bad after all, if you have any contact with the fire survivers tell them a lot of us are thinking of them and shedding quite a few tears, we do care.
So when the government on total fire days makes laws regarding what people are allowed to do- hence the type of equipment they use- the fires started somehow miraclously by themselves. Where these fires at Wandong started when i heard it on the radio started in an area near a plantation, on a weekend when no workers were working. Lightening was not a cause of this fire because it was not cloudy in Melbourne on Saturday and i live in northern suburbs about 45 minutes from the area. Therefore i tend to think the major fire the one which has caused significant live loss most likely was caused by arson.
Arson is the deliberate burning of another person’s property, usually a building, or of one’s own property for commercial gain, such as insurance fraud. What we are talking about here is fire-setting, which is usually done by disturbed people, or by children, not by arsonists. Of course it is possible that some of these fires were deliberately, but it hasn’t been proved that any of them were. In the kind of weather we had on Saturday, it’s very easy for fires to start accidentally. What we are seeing is the usual psycho-emotional response to disaster – the search for someone to blame and punish for our own failure.
Queen offers her sympathies, is that all she does? Yep now what difference will the queen make?
my last comment is in moderation – i’ve no idea why.
*gone*
I suspect that the local electricity transmission utility will have this information.
Greensborough Growler apparently wishing the deaths of the two guests on Lateline as well as the ABC current affairs production team.
Face it, the only one who doesn’t have the balls to tell the truth about climate change is Rudd.
perhaps the arson debate should wait till they decide what was arson and what wasnt.
There were lightening strikes the last couple of days but according to those in the know there were a few fires deliberately lit. Personally, I don’t see what is surprising about this. We know there are dick heads out there waiting for the right conditions and we know there was rain and thunder in some parts of the state.
And my excerpt from the AIC paper on arson is gone as well. Is “criminal” verboten? It can’t be a copyright infringement. Is there a problem with providing peer reviewed evidence on the site?
I’m trying to find it on the Bureau of Meteorology website, but aren’t getting anywhere.
Doesn’t there radar record it?
But if some kid starts a fire in some scrub land, then it burns its way into someone’s farm land, doesn’t that count as arson?
Oz, get off the unicorn, today is the next day when folk are talking about the causes and reasons, yesterday when it was happening was the wrong time.
Forbidden under the Barnaby Joyce rule.
That’s right, Rudd is a CC denier. Give us a break.
No Oz every Australian State Priemer still thinks that these events are one offs.
The problem they are to frightened to take on big business and big unions. Meanwhile more and more terrible climatic events increase.
Sorry, I retract. Didn’t scroll back far enough. But it might be useful for those who wish to express an opinion on the fire byg issue to read some real research rather than rely on gut feeling and accepted wisdom.
Anyway, I’m sure that there are comparable services to this lightning tracker in Victoria.
http://info.energex.com.au/tracker/asp/lightningtracker.asp
Very easy to rule lightning strike in or out as a probable cause.
marky marky 478
Melbourne is changing – deciduous trees start dropping their leaves in jan/feb. I have a fence covered in ivy – a dead set weed of a plant that has been rooting my fence for 13 years – and the ivy burnt under the heat for crying outs!
I reckon CC is here, but even if it isn’t, I think things have to be done in Melb.
1st) Rain water tanks in as many houses as possible – tanks as big as possible – and a generous rebate for the COST of the tanks as well as the installation.
2nd) A reverse congestion tax: don’t take money from car drivers as a tax -GIVE money to cyclists and Public Transport users who aren’t driving cars.
3rd) (Unfeasible as I know we don’t do Snowy schemes anymore) Retro fit Melb with a black tap – ie recycled water for gardens, washing, toilets and showering, saving freshwater for DRINKING.
4th) Rebates for blinds/protection on the outside of house windows to stop the heat getting in to houses
5th) Insulation rebates (I know are already in the package)
The gist of it is that we in Australia have no power to actually improve the climate. We are beholden to what the rest of the world does. At least if we try to impove what we do we would be setting an example to the prominent developing economies who will probably “rule the world” in the future
Quote one premier that has said that.
So emissions trading targets of 5 percent will do something about climate change? This policy is practically denying their is a problem.
The sharemarket and its greed says it all when insurance stock prices decrease because people are going to make insurance claims as a result of the bushfires.
We always knew it was going to be slow to start, else the Liberals would run an anti-GST / yourrightsatwork like scare campaign.
But isn’t this good, because it means the share market is expecting those companies to payout quickly?
Just because the share market measures dollar value, and not compassion doesn’t mean compassion doesn’t exist.
Slow to start! This will do nothing. And what timeframes.. if the rest of the world does nothing which i doubt Australia will be encouraging to do much, our target may well be 5% by 2020. Wake up! We and the planet does not have this much time to stall. Ask yourself about the massive changes in our climate over the last 12 years and what will it be like in another 12..
Yep always use politics as an excuse to do nothing.
Not so stimulating. For our stimulating to have any point the others need to stimulate effectively as well.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/happy-stan/
I think you will find that Labor will pursue a much more progressive environmental agenda if it can win a second term.
The most important thing for any first term government is to win that second term, because if they can get that, then they can usually get another term after that.
I don’t consider a fully costed carbon trading scheme, and ceiling insulation in 2.7 million houses “nothing”.
The climate change myth is what led to to these horrible bushfires. Fullstop.
501 marky marky – What about the 15%? Talk about selecting the percentage you want to make your point. We’ve had this argument before. Some here want all or nothing. Some believe Rudd should ignore politics and hand the opposition, you know, that bunch of CC sceptics, the reins of power at the next election. Good tactic that. Some believe Australia should go it alone and show all those wavering countries out there, the ones that see Australia as the centre of the earth, how to do it. Yeah sure.
The fact is if everyone thought as the green movement does on CC The Greens would be in government now. They are not, not even close. Hence the gradual steps.
Rudd is hamstrung by the senate, he has to formulate something he can get passed and then add to it as he goes, ShowsON is correct and now Obama’s in the white house there may be a chance of the Americans coming to the party, whatever is put forward by Rudd the coalition will have to be dragged kicking and screaming with it all, they’ll just run the mother of all scare campaigns at everyones hip pocket as they’ve tried to do with the 5%, while we have this economical meltdown people will be sensitive to their arguments and we’ll get nothing, Rudd needs more than just the greens to get a CC package through.
Be funnier.
I really hope he gets the current carbon trading plan through BEFORE the next election. He could then take another decent environmental policy to the election.
I really don’t want him to be going to the next election trying still trying to get support to pass the carbon trading scheme.
ShowsOn I hate to say this but you are wasting your time speaking sense on this. People like Marky think in terms of black and white. Politics shouldn’t come into any decision. Just go and do it and bugger the political consequences. Be a one term government, that will show em. Good one.
look i believe in climate change, with the sceptics i’ve always taken the stand of what have they to lose if it’s a myth, by having and using a CC plan at the best is it could save the planet and if it’s not needed we’ll be leaving our kids a cleaner healthier world, it’s a win win situation, i’ve got further using those lines rather than trying to bludgeon and bully them with my beliefs, try a version of it Oz and Marky Marky, you might get further.
No, Gary, a little anarchy uplifts the spirit.
There was a statemetn about State governments before that was not fair. For example, Victoria is now restricting coastal subdivision recognising that rising sea level creates an erosian risk. Of course they all ignore the elephant in the room – coal power stations.
Bree
Posted Monday, February 9, 2009 at 11:32 pm | Permalink
The climate change myth is what led to to these horrible bushfires. Fullstop.
Bree – the climate change myth did not lead to these horrible bushfires – as it did not lead to the Ash Wednesday fires of 1983, or the Black Friday fires of 1939.
Mother in law remembers sooty men, women and children turning up at Geelong in 1939 after surving Black Friday.
Facts please.
513 – Judith, I hold the same view as you on CC. It makes good sense.
“The climate change myth is what led to to these horrible bushfires. Fullstop.”
Obviously some fairly strong halucinogenics being passed around the Liberal bunker tonight.
G.P. and Glen must’ve passed out.
This result confirms that people are absolutely convinced that a pale shadow of a wall street merchant banker, Mr Turnbull, is just the person needed to save Australia from a recession, NOT!!!!!
Seems the Conservatives are going to watching from the sidelines for a long time. The Republicans seem like the have their own ‘bag of hammers’ as Chairman.
Government jobs aren’t jobs, so it seems.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/02/08/steele-confuses-stephanop_n_164991.html
I hope the negotiations with Xenephon, Fielding and the Greens are going well. If the package is passed this week I beleive Labor will retain current polling for the rest of the year.
On that hopeful note, night all.
Wilson Tuckey has blamed the greens for the the Victoria fire storms quote “They insisted that there should be all those reserves there” without giving any evidence that there was any more reserves there than other country areas, and completely ignoring the fact that the town of Maryville relied on bush reserves and such for most of its income through tourism…
My god, someone as confusing as Joyce.
Thomas Paine @ 521
After quoting ” bag of hammers”
Please don’t forget my absolute favourite sayings:
D.A.D.S.
Dumb as Dog S**t
and my personal favourite:
“Rough As Hessian Undies”
HBF, one wonders why if it was such a problem Tuckey didnt do something about it when he was minister for forestries, or has it only become a problem in the last 18 months?
So far the only political party to exploit the bushfires for political purposes have been the Greens who are linking bushfires to Climate Change…
Climate Change has nothing to do with bushfires they happen all the time…
On firebugs:
1. It tends to depend on where. In some parts of Australia firebugs light close to zero per cent of the fires. In peri-urban areas it is well over 50%.
2. There is some evidence that existing fires stimulate fire bugs through copycat stuff.
3. While there is no evidence, it would not surprise me at all if people fulminating about fire bugs actually inceases the likelihood of fire bug behaviour. Fulminations denote weakness.
4. Most of the immediate post-fire discussion about fire bugs has all the logic and sense of mediaeval witch hunts. Politicians and the media, who should be taking a leadership role with respect to firebugs, do exactly the opposite. Shamans rattling bones.
5. From a bigger picture, the main issue is: ‘How can we reduce the likelihood that fire bugs will operate? Since there is a considerable debate whether the death penalty affects murder rates, I would be very surprised whether the possibility a murder charge, with or without a death penalty, would affect firebug rates.
6. I don’t have much time for vengance. It helps nobody the next hot, dry, windy time.
7. If I picked it up correctly, the mechanism of police phoning around known persons on the mornings of extreme fire danger makes some sense to me.
8. The other thing that would make sense if people with known pre-disposing behaviours (fire lighting when children) are provided with far more intensive responses than they generally get at the moment.
Our society needs to relearn some fundamental lessons: We can’t control nature. We can only ‘manage’ it a little bit. We can’t control everything in our lives. We can’t control every little thing that everybody else does. Risk happens. We have to re-learn to live with risk. We have to re-learn the art of living with ourselves, and within our communities, when risks taken, or pure blind chance, don’t work out in the ways we want them to.
Witch hunt responses, blaming others for happenstance, blaming others for failing to meet impossible standards of control, are the responses of two groups of people. The first is the group who are traumatized and who hardly know what they are saying. The second group are those who have not thought things through adequately.
All I know is that Mr Tuckey is completely wacko, how the hell that nut job gets re-elected election after election is beyond me, they must put lead in the water in Kalgoorlie!
Humphrey @ 523
I was waiting for Tuckey to have his only synapse on fire management.
Glen
You wouldn’t trying to be exploiting the Greens’ comments on CC for your own party political purposes would you? Half-clever.
I note your assertion that there is no link between global warming and bushfires because ‘bush fires happen all the time’.
I suggest you take your synapse and share it with Tuckey.
Judith @ 523
Tuckey was constantly grandstanding on the topic when he was Minister for ‘Forestry and Conservation’ and some such. His difficulty was that the states and territories have responsibility for land management, including forests and reserves.
Tuckey has a synapse for every topic. On bushfires it is, regardless of the circumstances, the synapse gets him to blame conservationists.
Bree @ 508
The climate change myth is what led to to these horrible bushfires. Fullstop.
I am genuinely curious about your statement. How?
HSO @ 452
Thank you. I had to hold the courage of my convictions on that one. You are spot on in one respect: as climate patterns alter, so will extremes of fire behaviour.
In that case, previous learnings could be just as dangerous as no experience at all. From what I can glean what happened at Marysville might be an example of this.
Mr Squiggle
Not sure about Brumby (because I haven’t seen anything), but the rellies who had anything at all to do with police, SES, DSE firies, and CFA firies over the past couple of days are, without exception, very, very grateful and very, very impressed.
How they got away with the risks they took to save others, I don’t know.
That would certainly explain a lot, HBF – but not the election of Wilson Tuckey, whose electorate of O’Connor does not include Kalgoorlie.
g’night bludgers, it’s been an emotional day as things have unfolded in Victoria, we never dreamed just how bad it was going to get, this old dear has had enough and needs to recharge her batteries, tomorrows another day and hopefully better than today.
Climate Change is FACT we are witnessing it here and now in Australia, the CC deniers are completely self deluded, criminally self deluded, they should be certified.
This is something that has been of serious concern to me for some time, but I was reluctant to mention it in case it gave some nutters out there an idea how they could creat total mayhem. Doesn’t matter now because the media have now opened up the can of worms.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/islam-group-urges-forest-fire-jihad-20080906-4b53.html?page=-1
But it may be if Wilson decides to run in either of the two redistributed seats .
okay the electorate of O’Conner is shit full of lead, mercury, plutonium, and other heavy metals that send people absolutely completely WACKO JACKO!!!!
Frank @ 540
Wilson won’t have any problem getting re-elected in the new redistributed O’Conner. The ALP vote in WA is low at the moment its not even funny.
Scorpio @ 539
Golly. That should help clarify everything. Here are the facts:
(1) Australians don’t need help from Jihadists to light fires. It is something at which Australians already excel.
(2) There is not the slightest scintilla of evidence that a single Australian fire has been lit by a Jihadi.
Bree
I am still curious about how the CC myth led to all the horrible bushfires.
There’s been a bit of snowdropping in our area, scorpio, women running around all over the place searching for their missing knickers.
Personally Ithink it is a Jihadist plot to increase the population by encouraging easy access copulation between Westerners in our area, thus putting extreme pressure on our economy in the longer term.
I think I read something about it on an Arab website.
It must be true if it’s on the web.
Really, Scorpio ….
One telenewscast reported this evening that one of the townships [Kingslake? Marysville?] has already been secured as a crime scene.This hints at a strong suspicion that some fires were deliberately lit.
It’s a “crime” scene because, until an inquest is held, the cause of death of the unfortunate souls who have died there is officially unnatural. Until all proper enquiries are completed, by a police force under unimaginable pressure, the site must be secured.
That does not necessarily mean the police think a crime has been commited.
Careful what you wish for, Bree. If the Nats make a serious go at the seat and the ALP vote does what you think, then they could come second and therefore win on ALP preferences.
It’ll be interesting to see what the Nats do here next federal election, after doing so well in country WA in the state election. We don’t have any Nat MP’s, so Brendon Grylls may take quite a bit of charge.
I just realised, at the next election, if Barnaby moves to the House of Reps as he says he wants to, and if Fielding loses his seat, the average intelligence of the Senate will increase by at least 25%.
Scorpio & Bob1234
Scanning tonite , two of your quotes were ‘interesting’ but before I do , I posted earlier very incensed for some reasons , about people using th fire tragedy to push there own pety agenda , and since then see Bree in #508 has also done so His #508 is unworthy of being repostd , but look at it & despair
Scorpio
#361 “I find it much easier to understand Ron than I do with Barnaby’s incomprehensible ramblings”
thanks for that Scorpio , now imagine Barbabys ramblings put into a blog here on PB , and then you’d see Barnaby’s englsh & prose would be so perfect compared to mine as an ally to Adam…..and I’d be thinking what a pair , allys ….one not up himself but an idiot ….and th other up himself but not an idiot , just just wonder which descripton option Barnaby would choose
Bob1234” Adam, you and the other Labor Right factionoids are a disgrace to historical Labor. And I say that in the nicest possible way “
Adam #429 “And I reply with equal niceness: historical Labor is dead. The modern Labor Party lives.”
Well Bob1234 , you did say you sometimes read my bloggs and that word you used “Factionoids”……factionoids lingo , you’re catching on Now bob1234 Adam says he never reads my blogs as th English is just too high a standard , so a alternative for you to throw in futre is Factionettes , for alittle petite ring
Talking factions , I liked John Button’s approach to factions , and to politcs and actually to standards by th way He came from a small facton group in ‘numbers’ within Labor but on abilty welded great influense & wisdom..and that comment ‘historical Labor is dead’ of course is nonsense , but spoken by one with ‘th numbers’ arogantly , given NSW Govt’s showing “done as there way” , perhaps not for long
Seeing the Jihadist comment, I hope the fire investigation doesn’t become a witch-hunt. Rudd and Brumby would show good eadership in making sure that doesn’t happen. All the arsonists caught in the past I have seen in the media have been plain old Aussies, often with some form of mental illness. Previous posts on the need for more mental health treatment, and the SA police monitoring idea, are obviously better solutions than demonisinganyone.
I tink when people ave calmed down about this one, there are actions government should take. I was in Canberra in the 2003 fires adn these are different for several reasons. Back then mistakes were made and resources were not adequate. Evacuating the whole city was and is unthinkable. A large stand of pine forest near the worst hit suburb exaccerbated things.
This time consider the situation: the warning information was accurate (tick weather bureau), fire authorities planned for it (tick management), deployed every resource they had who all worked hard (tick CFA and police), who saved some but overall the fires were too big to be stopped. That means we have to review our strategy to this whole thing.
Questions to ask:
- does climate change now mean some areas shouldn’t have isolated bush housing?
- how do we change the design of bush houses to improve survivability?
- do we need more resources like water bomber aircraft? would they make a difference?
- do we change policy on evacuation?
- how do we create a national regime on planning (house location) and building standards (permitted types of houses) to limit risk?
- should all states adopt the SA police arsonist monitoring approach, which seems to work?
There is still a lot we don’t know; investigations are just starting. Lets not jump to conclusions or start blaming groups. People are upset enough already.
I’ve heard it all now.
Yes LTEP I made a joke of that comment last night because I thought that was what it deserved. But as the scale of this event becomes apparent I think people will see that distorting perceptions of it is a game that most people will not like. It is offensive. How can a theory that fire risk is increasing being false going to cause the fires?
Bree @ 508
The climate change myth is what led to to these horrible bushfires. Fullstop.
I am still genuinely curious about your statement. How?
the news just gets grimmer and grimmer, sigh you wonder when the nightmare will end, i wonder if it’s feasable for communities like these little towns could have some sort of bushfire bunkers built, safety boltholes they could go to at the first threat of bushfire, maybe it’s pie in the sky and maybe it wouldnt be viable but if it even saved some lives it would have done it’s job, private underground bomb shelters were built during the cold war so why not for this type of war, they seem to have film footage of a suspected fire bug, if i was him/her i would be praying for the police to get to me before the population.
i just dont get it. people build bomb shelter, storm shelter, earthquake shelter etc. So why cant the Govt insists that fire-proof bushfire shelters to be built either individually or for the local community. Surely this will be much cheaper than the loss of lives and injuries.
It seems to me that prevention has not been really on top priority. The dramas of the aftermath seem to be something that has transfixed people. Like the tears of the politicians, from both sides, i cannot stand them. Afterall:
Bushfires = Australia just as
Earthquakes = Japan, Pacific Americas, the Ring of Fire
Hurricanes = Caribbean, the gulf region
Floods = China, Bangladesh
Volcanoes = Indonesia
can we move on please.
i just whizzed past Akerman’s column skimming the papers, he’s turned his attention to arsonists apparently, actually i’m a bit amazed he’s not blaming Rudd for the fires, he blames him for everything else.
i dont quite get your post Finn, how can we move on right now, i for one certainly cant just block it out, maybe you can call it transfixed but i cant help but grieve for those people, having lost a child in very public traumatic conditions while i cant say i know how they feel, i can say i know their loss and hurt along with them, it would be much more comfortable for me to be able to tune out but i cant.
Indeed. Like Bolt, I wonder if Akerman used Herald Sun and other right-wing polls regarding the stimulus package that gave it the thumbs down, in attempts to support his argument, but will fail to use the widely accepted Newspoll, which clearly gives a mandate for the Rudd government package?
Finns
In the couple of years before the Murrindindi fire I would have driven through most of the country that went in that fire. I was constantly staggered at what I saw of the risks people were taking. IMHO, given the choices people have made in the past couple of years through a lot of that country, the tragedies of the last couple of days were almost inevitable. Here are some choices people could have made but did not:
(1) spend paltry thousands additional spending per house to incorporate some basic features that would have dramatically increased the likelihood of their house surviving a fire. The technical specs are well-established.
(2) incorporate some basic around-the-house arrangements; cost virtually nil. They mostly have to do with distance of flammables from the house.
(3) incorporate a thousand dollars or so worth of power source and water source independent of grids and mains.
(4) observe some basic rules about distance from trees.
(5) spend a couple of hundred bucks worth of corrugated iron and timber, a shovel and a couple of days digging. You don’t need concrete. All you need is dirt and space for a hole in the ground. (Works reasonably well for tornadoes as well).
There is no new information relating to the above choices. It is all old stuff. Why did individuals not use it? Should councils make it mandatory?
Judith Barnes, yesterday was not “the day after”. The fires were still burning and the death toll more than doubled.
Face it, it was pure hypocrisy. You criticise Brown for making completely sensible comments which were the right thing to say at any time, but especially at that time, yet you ignore the enormous list of other people saying the exact same thing.
The only reason Rudd didn’t say it is because he can’t line up “We’ll have more of these and they will be worse” with his climate change policy.
Oz
I’ve come around to the idea that we should be having the CC debate in the wake of the ashes. I still don’t think that on the first day it was appropriate but now that the discussion has widened to managing arson, reducing ground fuel, shelters etc it is entirely appropriate. I should add that as a scientist I cannot blame the bushfires on CC and I noted that Brown’s comments didn’t do that either. He said that bushfires are 25-50% more likely with CC.
Finns
There’s not a lot to move on to. The bushfires are dominating the political debate of the country and have even shut down parliament. And the debate around them is incredibly important (and interesting) for lots of reasons, even ignoring the human loss which is hard to do.
1. How our political leaders cope impacts on their future (witness Bush in Katrina)
2. How this affects the CC debate
3. How much personal vs government responsibility is needed to manage fire in future
4. What to do about arsonists esp when mentally ill
5. Why our systems failed so many people
6. Whether we can control nature
7. How Australians respond to a crisis
These topics will be talked about for ages and shape quite a few political debates.
Boerwar, thanks for your enlightened comments on firebugs v natural risks last night. You put it much better than I did.
On the firebug issue, another thing they do in SA besides visiting or ringing known firebugs on high risk days, is to set up lots of CCTV cameras on roads in high-risk areas to capture the number plates of people driving through. They publicise this fact widely as a deterrant.
They have only closed certain areas, not every place where people died. They think a crime has been committed all right.
If anyone is really interested in bushfire arson, this is the report on it from Australia’s CRC. It’s basically a literature review, so there’s science rather than emotion behind it.
http://www.bushfirecrc.com/research/downloads/arson%20report.pdf
Can anyone tell me why it is not a requirement that licence plate numbers be put on the roofs of cars? Then they could be easily identified by satellite photography.
“Can anyone tell me why it is not a requirement that licence plate numbers be put on the roofs of cars?”
Um, ugly? But you Labor Righties love the idea of a nanny state don’t you?
Oz, f*ck off, while i’m usually a polite and gentle person today is the wrong day to try and stir my pot, i dont need you to get personal and call me a hypocrite because that i’m not, i’ll happily debate with you or anyone else today but leave personalities out of it, you dont know me so please dont try to lable me, i dont need it today especially, in other words i’m telling you to go bang your neverending drum in someone else’s ear today you’ll get no more reaction from me.
When it prevents crime and saves lives, you betcha.
Adam
Number plate cameras work quite well now thanks to digital image processing. If cameras are put in place as Diogenes said there would be no need for aircraft.
The Japanese attempted to utilise forest fires as a weapon of terror against the US mainland in 1944-45, using incendiary carrying balloons. An imaginative idea, but ineffective at achieving its stated aims:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_balloon
Satellites aren’t usually directly overhead anyway. All they need is a small angle to be able to read a number plate.
what about roof racks obscuring the number?
Oz, leave Judith alone. You seem to be putting yourself up as some sort of “oracle” whose opinion is the only one with merit and your defence of BB was booring to the extreme.
There seems to be an emphasis on attacking the opinion or statements of other posters at the moment, (often with very little merit) and it demeans the attacker.
Boerwar and Fulvio, I don’t think you read my comment @ 539 properly. Maybe I should have been more specific in my leader to the article. (I didn’t write the article by the way)
What I intended to convey was a concern that a great deal of this country would be vunerable to an attack of this type which perpetrators could quite easily carry out with very little resources, ie a 20c box of scratches or $2 bic lighter.
We already know that there are people in this country that are that way inclined and to ignore this fact would be quite foolish. As the article outlines, the Authorities are also very aware of the possibility.
Nowhere did I link this possibility with the current situation and to link my comment with “snow dropping” is nothing but a juvenile swipe and not funny whatsoever.
It is still a great concern to me though because of the ease with which misgiuded jihadists could undertake a widespread attack of this nature with no risk to themselves, very little chance of being caught and which could totally overwhelm emergency services and other authorities and facilities.
or convertibles?
A very silly thing to do when your cities are made of wood and paper.
Adam, i’m sure a totallitarian regime saves lives too.
Boerwar your other points make good sense but the heat and radiation from this firestorm was said to be 10 times the norm and the water pumps people had were usless as they wouldn’t work because of lack of oxygen.
Embers and fireballs from the wind would still destroy house reguardless of closeness of trees. listening to ABC radio last night a surviver from Ash Wednesday fires said their house was in a paddock 200mtrs from the bush and the live embers were a couple of kms ahead of the fire and they could put out spot fires from them then but when the wall of fire closed in there was no hope.
No, it doesn’t. What saves lives is a well-run state aparatus, including police, under the control of a democratically elected parliament and supervised by an independent judiciary. That’s what we Labor Righties believe. What do you believe?
Just noticed that the Age has removed the link I posted at 539.
Maybe they were instructed to get it off as it has already been reported that authorities suspect that people have been re-lighting fires after they have been brought under control.
There’s certainly no need to offer encouragement to people who may be that way inclined.
Rudd is in a little bit of problem with his populist cash handout TRABIGEP plan (Tectical Recession Avoidance Before I Goto Election Plan).
Every economist are saying it won’t create a single job, and since the November cash stimulus did not save any jobs in December (ie highest month of people being made redudant). Most are questioning whether the cash handout is just an attempt to buy vote in case Rudd want to go to an election.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25032812-462,00.html
Indeed. Doing silly things was what the Japanese government & military was very good at back then …
Diog, i dont mind if the talkfest is about some of your pts 1-7. i am more interest in solutions that can be hung on the Knowledge Trees for the future. Not the croc tears and tabloid kind of exploitation of the human emotions that i have seen or heard on the whole. Judith, that’s what i meant by move on.
So i will restraint myself for saying you’re wRONg, again. Especially,
bloody journos, this just reminds me why i loathe most of them, massive headlines in the Adelaide now site ‘HUNT FOR MASS MURDERES ON’ then the article
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25023105-5006301,00.html
which was yes a hunt for arsonists, but the dramatic headlines playing on peoples fears and feelings would just about ensure anyone suspected and caught by civilians would come close to being lynched, maybe i’m too sensitive at times and let my acute distaste for journos over rule commonsense, i’ll have to watch that tendancy.
“What saves lives is a well-run state aparatus, including police, under the control of a democratically elected parliament and supervised by an independent judiciary. That’s what we Labor Righties believe.”
That’s what pretty much everyone in Australia believes in. You forgot the nanny state.
It is all old stuff. Why did individuals not use it? Should councils make it mandatory?]
#560 BW, my points exactly. maybe i will get lynched if i were to say that self inflicted, no sympathy? But our society is now about blaming others, never about blaming ourselves first.
It’s hard to believe that Turnbull is only doing a few % better on Preferred PM than this guy
http://www.livenews.com.au/static/articles/103101/F_0_BrendanNelson_Budgreply_a_3.jpg
Yeah Dovif, every economist = two who put forward a presentation to the Senate Inquiry. We already knew their opinion as they have had extensive coverage prior to yesterday afternoon.
At least we know that News Ltd watched at least part of the Inquiry anyway. What about all the presentations that disagree with that nonsense?
Judith, you have just proved my point. TQ.
dovif is dreaming – the vast majority of economists back the plan.
sorry if i took your post the wrong way Finn, i couldnt understand it when all i posted was about viability of building fire shelters, my grief is real though not the tabloid type, hey you can pull me up for being wrong anytime you feel i am, thats what it’s all about, i can listen and learn—– peace
Just imagine, as John Lennon like to say. If the alleged arsonist(s) that got caught turn out to be middle-east origin, Muslim, long beard and shouting “Allah Akbar”.
Boerwar 560 and Finns
Sadly forgetting about risks seems to be human nature, and not just in Australia. We need rules to stop people being stupid or greedy, because that is how they so often behave.
After the 1903 San Francisco earthquake tight rules were put in place to prevent peopel building houses on the fault line. Over time property prices rose and pressures became such that peopel got around the rules by putting things like a major hospital and a sports stadium on the fault line instead.
In North Qld after a disastrous flood of the Barron river early in the 20th Century (1920s I think?) the town of Smithfield was washed away. It was rebuilt on a nearby ridge and the original allotments abandoned as flood prone. When I was working there in the early 90s real estate agents were trying to sell them and get building approvla agai because of teh rise in land prices. When I challenged this the agent (who I had met at church!) said I was being unreasonable and denying people opportunity. He said he had lived there for years and there was no problem. Sure enough a few years later it was metres underwater again.
Nanny state is a pejorative term used to brand an action as an extreme over-reacton, but doing nothing is the other extreme. It is not a nanny-state that protects people from loss of life from an obvious threat. Government action must be balanced against individual freedom. But those are things like freedom of association, free speech, and voting. Building a house anywhere is not a fundamental human freedom, any more than drink driving is.
#589 bob1234
Maybe Nelson’s and Turnbull’s biggest problems have been their party and its policies, not themselves, and that’s why their PPM ratings are both in the basement.
Dovif 583
Two economists does not make a majority. Here’s an article explaining the Government and Dr Henry’s decision to hand out cash.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25032715-2702,00.html
Interesting:
and yet 50% of that age group answered “no” to the question of whether the LNP woul dcome up with a better stimulus package – Stutchbury didn’t mention that point…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25031392-7583,00.html
Soc, sometimes i wonder why Diog cannot write something sensible like your #595.
Judith, Chin up, I’m sending you heaps of good thoughts and support. From what you were saying last night you have some tough times ahead and hopefully it won’t be too painful for you and your family.
I wonder what percentage of people were not insured? I’m sure a lot were underinsured. The government should give these poor people the $21K new home allowance regardless if it is , if they choose stay and rebuild.
Finns
I was just about to post the exact same thing but Socrates beat me to it.
I said there would be a debate about those topics. I didn’t say what my thoughts were. I’m assuming you are unhappy with my comment about whether we can control nature. I don’t think we can to any useful extent and that will be one of the biggest lessons out of this. The idea that we can stay and fight a maxi-fire will be severely criticised. Humans have become so controlling of all facets of their lives that they feel they should be able to manage anything. The idea of risk and uncertainty as a good thing has been replaced with the need for certainty. There are some parallels with the idea that we can control the economy while it’s melting down. We really don’t like to feel impotent.
Remember what Oppenheimer said when the first atomic bomb went off. He quoted the Gita, when Krishna was showing Arjuna how many forms the powerful can take.
“Now I am become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds”.
And as the CC issue hots up, I think that people should stop doing the old A + B = C, The temperature record stood for some 100 years. What caused it back then? These things do happen naturely too, and no I’m not being a skeptic. CC is a serious problem but you can’t just make assumptions.
A bit of history
http://www.abc.net.au/blackfriday/royalcommission/index_recommendations.htm
Dogma, thankyou, we’ll survive, most of the South Australians here probably know whats going on and what the authorities might be preparing us for, it’s no big secret here, today i’ll probably get a bit of summing up and probabilities of what happens next, truths and facts we can face, we’ve been there before quite a while ago, it’s the lies, the headline stories that bear little relationship with fact and the dolts making things up looking for their fifteen minutes of fame that destroy you, that hurt is what i fear, i could tell you stories about the media that would make your hair curl–including Barcelona’s input two years ago, a media pal says it wont be as bad if things go ahead again, i hope not.
What utter drivel
centaur009
David Karoly had some wise words on the CC link last night on Lateline. He referred to the fact that, when it comes to extreme weather events, CC has “loaded the dice” …
TONY JONES: And do you feel, do you believe that it is beyond doubt that what we’re seeing in Victoria, these horrific fire storms, are related directly to climate change and global warming?
DAVID KAROLY: It’s very difficult to attribute a single event to climate change or to natural variability. What we have to do is really look at the balance of probabilities or the risk or likelihood of these events. And what we can say is it is possible to get extreme events like this, like the firestorms, just due to natural variability. But what we’re seeing now is that the dice have been heavily loaded so that the chances of these sorts of extreme fire weather situations are occurring much more rapidly in the last 10 years due to climate change. So climate change has loaded the dice. And what we’re seeing is a much greater occurrence of this extreme fire weather. And certainly in some situations, we’re seeing unprecedented extremes. The hot temperatures on Saturday in Melbourne and in many parts in south eastern Australia were unprecedented. The records were broken by large amount and you cannot explain that just by natural variability. And climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases has been a major factor in increasing the temperatures and likely contributing to the drought in south eastern Australia.
#603
Right, you can’t use a single event as evidence of anything. You can’t even use a 20-year drought as evidence of what the future holds. There have been long-term changes (thousands of years) throughout earth’s history, and within those shorter term changes, and within those still shorter term changes.
centauo009, there are govt grants for rebuilding. The temporary living allowance mentioned below is about $8000 (saw it written somewhere yesterday but can’t find it now) the re-establisment grant is $26,000
“There are other grants, I should add. There’s the temporary living expenses grant and a re-establishment grant, totalling nearly $26,000.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/09/2485712.htm
Diog
“Humans have become so controlling of all facets of their lives that they feel they should be able to manage anything. The idea of risk and uncertainty as a good thing has been replaced with the need for certainty.”
How very true. That is a problem for doctors, engineers and every other profession that deals with biological or physical forces. Sometimes the honest answer is we don’t know. Climate change will expose that many aspects of nature cannot be completely protected against. You cannot design any bridge, building or road to survive every possible fire, storm earthquake or flood that may occur. Sometimes for sensible risk management you need a plan B, like running away, or accepting that if the structure will be catastrpohically lost you have some plan to protect the people. Hence my comment that I think, if we are honest, some of these areas should not have houses rebuilt in them. I hope the inquiry terms are broad.
Sure. It’s not the temperature records by themselves that concern me… it’s the increasing occurrences of extreme events.
Meh. You can rebuild houses, and people still need a place to live. Just mandate forced evacuations so that people don’t get caught in these situations.
thanks for that vera, I wasn’t aware of those
Dario
That assumes that forced evacuations in time are possible. On a winding country road in an isolated hilly area road capacity is limited. A few shacks may be OK, but what if you have to get hundreds of people out over such roads in a very short time? It may not be possible. Then you have to evacuate and “seal off” such areas a day or two in advance – like hurricane evacuations of low lying areas in the US south coast.
I cant work out where this talk of Rudd wanting to go to an early election is coming from. There are no DD triggers as yet, and given all that’s been happening over the last few months i couldn’t see the Govt rushing into that even if the IR bills were blocked. The actual effect of the stimulus packages remains to be seen, and they are 3 months out from a federal budget that isn’t going to be pretty and so not providing the best of circumstances to be seeking re-election.
I can’t see the federal ALP calling an election just to take advantage of coalition leadership problems this year. That seemed to be one of the (many) things that worked against the ALP in the Western Australian election, and as long as Costello is in parliament those issues will be ongoing. Let the Libs stew in their own juices a while and self mutilate for a bit longer i reckon.
Does anyone think there is any substance to this or is it just the latest MSM, “we need to be seen as perceptive” beat up?? I’d be really interested to hear if anyone actually thinks its credible that there will be an early election (in 2009) and their reasons for that opinion??
US GDP was zero at the bottom of the Great Depression in March 1933 when FDR took office. Under the spending program of the New Deal, GDP grew nearly 40% to hit a record in 1936, continued above 40% but then slipped back a bit when Rooselvelt slashed programs to balance the budget in 1937, and soared to 90% above the 1933 low by the time Japan bombed Pearl Harbour in December 1941.
That gives the lie to claims that it was the war, not the New Deal, that stimulated the US economy.
The US has wars going in Iraq and Afghanistan without much evidence of stimulation of the US domestic economy.
Thinking of you today Judith – hopefully you’ll be able to switch on Question Time today and lose yourself in the argy bargy of Federal politicking.
cheers centaur009
I don’t know if anyone would postulate, but before settlement how would fires go out in Australia? I would assume they would burn till they reached the water? Is there any evidence of fires in the past?
Actually I just remembered Geography/History that the aboroginals had a very sophisticated back burning method.
#610 Dario
My point was that we can’t be sure that extreme events will continue to be more common. Weather fluctuates over different time scales. There could be a long-term trend in one direction but a shorter term trend in the opposite direction. I’m very doubtful that the scientists have got it all worked out.
We know it is possible. Those people on the morning of the fires that decided to leave survived. The problem in Victoria is that the authorities are legally not allowed to force people to leave their homes. Change the law.
Weather change, wind change. If a fire blows back on itself it has no more fuel to burn.
It would be rather amusing if Costello did a 1983/Hawke…
Centaur
Also perhaps there were no stands of commercial timber ie pine plantations and the landscape was more in “balance”
the link at 604 is quite informative , also the CSIRO has some great info
I’m not sure I entirely agree with that. Sure, weather fluctuates over time, but it is rare to see extreme events on both ends of the scale increasing in number in such a short space of time, and when it just happens to coincide with the onset of the Industrial Revolution then it seems much more than a coincidence to me.
imacca, i think it’s just a beat up, the government by denying it would be just giving it more oxygen, look at Bligh, the more she denied it the more strident the rumours became, i think Rudd will sit it out and just see how things pan out, there seems to be a consensus among a lot of economists that the crunch will have run it’s course by next year and we’ll be coming up for air, if things will be starting to improve by then it would be the perfect time for an election, i think now in the current volatile conditions would be a bit silly, though i’m no oracle and my reading of it could be very wrong.
looks like Brown will be coming to the party and Fielding will dither and give way with a bit of sop in his direction so that just leaves Mr X to worry about, the opposition will sht themselves if the bill gets rejected.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25033800-5005962,00.html
From soil analysis there is long evidence of regular major fires in Australia going back to at least the last ice age. This has been studied by scientists etc trying to understand the climate record. It almost certainly pre-dates Aboriginal settlemetn of australia, as some plant species are adapted to only germinate after being exposed to the heat of fires. There was an explanation of this here in SA after the Kangaroo Island fires a year ago.
Judith Mr X was running around on the weekend saying Rudd should consult with Turnbull, he’s out of his depth, cant handle the pressure i’d say.
Yeah Judith, good points. Also seems to me that Rudd has somewhat planned his first term in office and those plans aren’t completely derailed by the GFC. Inquiries and such delivering action plans (Defense, Pensions, NBN) where the real work will be occurring from mid 09 into 2010, in the lead up to the 2010 election. If they go early, that plan may work against them rather than for them.
Hope things go well for you today.
Question Time cancelled, AGAIN!
Toorak 615 That gives the lie to claims that it was the war, not the New Deal, that stimulated the US economy.
I watched a doco a couple of months ago on the history channel. They said that Roosevelt kept out of the war in the first few years, although he knew that he would eventually have to join, he told everyone that he was going to keep US out. In those years he managed to use the British and other countries, need of steel and gave more work to industries that sell war machinery to improve the economy of the US. Although it was a war doco, and concentrated on the effects of the wars prior to US joining, the narrator said that it lifted the US economy to “newer heights”.
Implying that the US was already coming out of recession, and the war prior to US joining, gave industries more work.
Thanks for that Soc. This is more evidence not to jump to conclusions Dario. You are also linking up potntially mutually exclusive events and finding common causality amogst all.
There is a letter in todays’s Age “cuddles not required” http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/letters/sharing-the-losses-20090209-828e.html?page=-1. Although i fel very sorry for this man, I cannot agree with his assumption, nor will his not occur again. I also thought that the PM was seriously upset, as everyone has, and believe he is doing what he can.
Vera, maybe he’s panicking about the whole heat being on him lol, blind freddy knows you cant consult with an opposition thats dealt itself out of the negotiations by stating they were going to definately vote against the bill without even seeing it, mind i think Rudd’s only giving them 48 hours to pass it was a bit silly.
it was a waste of time having the opposition at the senate inquiry, they’re not going to pro vote regardless of what the experts say, they just used it to grandstand and flex their muscles or their minute intelligence in Joyce’s case,it would have been better to just call the experts in for a round table conference with the greens and independants, quicker, cleaner and more informative.
Centaur I wasn’t implying I disagree with Dario either – just saying what I knew. We have long evidence of past fires but may still be seeing a change in fire patterns now. Other engineers I know who work in hydrology say that changes in rainfall in the past three decades are statistically significant and drainage design manuals are being revised as a result – i.e. it is likely we are seeing a change in Australian weather patterns. We just need to be careful ascribing a single cause to Saturdays events till alll the evidence is in.
Of course fires occurred in the past. That in itself proves nothing. I could just as easily say you are disconnecting potentially linked events and dismissing common causality amongst it all
centaur that letter from the woman blaming the fires on Rudd because he hasn’t committed to a 50% reduction in carbon emmissions is just politicing from a Rudd hater IMHO
If the Opposition were truly worried by this I am sure they could arrange for Liberal Senator to become a ‘rogue’ for the day and cross the floor.
Why will the opposition care if it gets rejected? A DD is only possible if a bill is rejected twice with a three month period in between.
Judith I thought the same thing, seeing as the Coalition had allready made up their minds and voted no what was the point of them asking questions at the senate inquiries? All they were doing was grandstanding and wasting time that the Greens and Independents could have used more constructively.
Also judith thinking of you and hope you are holding up OK
Non of the sort Dario, just not jumping to conclusions and saying A + B = C.
Adam, what about dog tags for everyone. I am not being cynical but it does become very contentious. Where do you draw the line? I don’t know the answer to that.It seems to work for the army well enough.
#635 Vera
The letter was by a man, and he lost his house, so I think he has more on his mind than mere Rudd-hating.
triton he may have had more on his mind but the spite he shows towards Rudd would do Bree proud
So what would be ‘proof’ for you centaur, or at least enough evidence to start thinking it might be likely?
Also what right has he to criticise the man that broke down in tears because he allowed himself to be comforted by Rudd. I’m sure that man also had other things on his mind after losing everything.
William, any reason my comment’s in moderation?
“Nanny state” is a stupid Thatcherite cliche, so I conclude you are a stupid Thatcherite. As such I micturate in your general direction.
““Nanny state” is a stupid Thatcherite cliche, so I conclude you are a stupid Thatcherite.”
That’s right, play the man rather than the ball, in true Labor Right tradition.
Adam
How does the cancelling of Question Time work? Who makes the decision and how long can they keep doing it for?
Oh dear, Nick Minchin is quoting B.A. Santamaria
Oh, and he just said that the government going into deficit is inevitable in a major economic downturn.
ewwwww
The bit about the death toll rising while they were speaking is pretty stark.
Also is there a rule for when the media refers to Julia as Deputy PM? I guess in causus today she was acting in Rudd’s absence so it is more the “Deputy” role than “Minister”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487178.htm?section=justin
I assume the party leaders and the presiding officers had a little chat and decided that a rowdy QT would not be a good look today. For some reason I wasn’t invited to the meeting, so I can’t be more specific.
A government member moves a motion to not proceed with question time. Then the chamber either agrees with it, or they have a debate over it and vote on it.
Obviously this was prearranged because the opposition agreed with it.
It is otherwise very unusual for a government to either cancel or move question time without an agreement, else it looks like they are being evasive.
He’s actually quoting Lenin, but he’s too historically illiterate to realise it.
Climate change is real problem.
The activities of man are major contributors the climate change.
Bushfires have always and will always occur.
The events of the last few days may or may ot have occured as a result of CC
All statements stand on their own, and statements I believe. Can you see the point I’m making Dario?
Opposition wanted QT cancelled
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487178.htm?section=justin
Dio – the govt controls it though the opposition can move for a suspension of standing orders.
In this instanse the opposition asked and the Govt agreed:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487178.htm?section=justin
Wow, Adam.
After thousands of hours of research and reading hundreds of academic texts, that one “micturate” had so far evaded me.
You never cease to amaze me. A fairly apt discriptor in the circumstances though.
Gee 3 answers to Dio in the time I was writing my answer – we are a bunch of standing orders swots aren’t we!
I know it’s a bit crass to ask this but has anyone seem an estimate of the economic cost of the bushfires? Crops, stock, 750+ houses and the associated infrastructure must be getting enormous.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487178.htm
“The House of Representatives is now likely to sit on Friday as the Government looks to pass its $42 billion stimulus package by the end of this week.”
That’s sure to piss off some backbenchers.
Thomas P, they wont know it’s being rejected till the vote and they’d be relying on the greens and independants to pass it, imagine the furor if it is defeated and people dont get their bonus and then the economy tanks, every job loss every repossessed house and every business going belly up would be laid at Turnbull’s door, they;d be the scapegoats, people would be remembering that Turnbull stopped Rudd from trying to save them and we’d be getting a lot of “things would be different” etc, Thomas, Turnbull’s whole ploy would be on hoping that even with the package things will go downhill and he can boast i told you so and pick over any ruins to try and get the PM’s berth, thats how merchant bankers work with companies, they risk on failure, Turnbull is a typical merchant banker using familiar tools.
Vera i read that letter yesterday, what a lot of spite, the man Rudd was comforting had just lost his entire family, that would have hit Rudd in the gut.
Sure, but the lengthy heatwaves preceding the fires, and thus the sheer intensity of the fires (which by all accounts far eclispse anything in Australian recorded history), are quite possibly as a result of CC. Is it something we can afford to be so sceptical about? I have never said CC is unequivocal, but then I don’t think the chances of my house being burgled are all that high… and yet I have contents insurance.
I can’t believe it’s happened again with no real changes since Canberra. No new building codes, no organised fire safety inspections, no real education campaigns, etc.
We prevent people from building in flood planes or alternatively requiring that the house is on piers above flood level. We need to mandate fire resistant construction, building of fire refuges, provision of fire fighting equipment and a water supply, and the training of residents in fire fighting, and/or early evacuation, and taking refuge.
We live in a bush house constructed entirely of steel, have fitted gutter guards, prepared fire blinds for all the windows, laid gravel all around the house, secured a large emergency supply of water (delivered under gravity pressure) and provided high capacity fire fighting hoses. (And numerous other minor provisions)
Even so I am not complacent. It really rots my socks that so many people are allowed to put themselves and their families at risk by not preparing for the worst. All levels of government are culpable: national state and local. So are all the idiots who move to the bush and don’t take the basic steps to protect themselves and their neighbours.
I am also really impatient with people who suggest that arsonists should not be subject to punishment because they are mentally ill. IMHO most dangerous criminals are mentally ill. Terrorists who attack innocent people are mentally ill. Rapists are mentally ill. Paedophiles who abuse innocent children are mentally ill. The prospect of severe punishment is a deterrent even to most firebugs.
Charges laid should be appropriate to the offence, of course. Last week some idiot magistrate, as part of the sentence, put a 15 year old boy convicted of sexually assaulting a 14 year old girl on the sex offenders register. If this was a first offense it is absolutely over the top. If it a repeat offence it still seems extremely severe.
Jailing a bunch of young teens for setting a paddock alight is probably over the top. For adults, lighting fires in the bush at the height of the high risk season should be treated the same as attempted murder. For genuine cases there is still the defence of diminished responsibility.
Come on people, let’s excercise a little common sense.
#646 Vera
I didn’t read it as criticism of the man embraced by Rudd. He just said he wasn’t impressed to see it, which I thought was more a criticism of Rudd, and that he wouldn’t have done it.
I think one needs to be a little tolerant of those who are understandably angry at losing their homes.
#665 Dario
Well, I ditched my contents insurance two years ago because I didn’t think it was worth the premium, which was about the same as the house insurance.
According to this criminologist, they’re not mentally ill
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487091.htm?site=melbourne
Forgive me for saying it, but I think that’s stupid
Adam
The nanny-state meme gets my goat too. It is curious how many right-wingers are happy to have a “nanny-state” for market rescues, banks, bankers and indeed even the CEOs of failed corporations but not the poor, disaster victims etc. It still seems to be perfectly acceptable for a millionaire executive to have a golden parachute clause in their contracts when they are sacked for incompetence while someone who loses everything through no fault of their own is dependant on community generosity.
The 31 yr old man arrested for setting fires in NSW told the police if they released him he would probably do it again. I don’t know if he is mentally ill but what do you do with someone like that?
triton I do read this as criticism of the man embraced
I see Adam has adapted the old Monty Python lines to deal with an odourous poster.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWBUl7oT9sA
Vera it’s easy what you’d do, but our legal system is so weak that an adequate punishment for someone like that would not be done to them…
odourous poster? I beg your pardon!
police are certain the Gippsland fire that killed 21 to date was deliberately lit.
As regards the cause of many of these fires, there seems to be a degree of verisimilitude evident in many of the statements made so far on the matter.
Costello’s favourite Pastor endears himself to Victorians and fire victims
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/02/10/and-catch-the-fire-they-will/
Rudd wants to hand out the spondooly!
Different topic but cynical governments often use major events as a cover to hideembarrassing stories. The state government Labor should be ashamed of (NSW) is doing just that now:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487251.htm?section=justin
They have approved the Huntlee New Town development by Hardies near Branxton in the Hunter Valley. They are putting 7000 households in the middle of nowhere where there are no jobs. Its a recipe for gridlock on the New England and even F3. Shame.
It’s taken a day for me to respond to the poster “Bree” over her scorn regarding Rudd being upset on ch9 the other morning, when he was talking about the Vic fires.
May I make the point that many Labor supporters applauded Howard over his reactions to the Tasmanian shootings. I think in times like these, when you see people suffering you don’t think, oh I wonder if their a liberal or a Labor supporter. You just see people as Australian’s suffering, or people from other countries suffering. Lets not make what is a very sad and difficult time into a Labor v Liberal fight and concentrate on helping in what ever capacity we can.
Interesting to see that letter from Kaye Holder in the Age which was mentioned by centaur009 @ 633, has also appeared in the Letters Blog in the OZ.
I think it may have originated from a political source and been widely disseminated for political purposes. Quite despicible really.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bushland_has_been_turned_into_impenetrable_scrub/
dogma, well said.
dogma,
Better to focus on the good work by the volunteers, brave firefighters and (yes) even the politicians who have collectively shown the type of community spirit we can admire.
The political opportunists can swim in their vomit.
No QT maybe, but the Reps should still be sitting now according to the daily program. Nothing on the webcast.
Would not be surprised if the Opps request for further cancellation of QT as they are on hiding to nothing on the Stimulus Package thing.
GG
You do have such a delicate turn of phrase sometimes.
Glen I think the other prisoners might be likely to dispense the type of justice you’re talking about (unless the arsonists are kept in solitary for their own protection)
Has anybody posted this from Crikey. As his name implies Turnbull is for TURNING.
Diogs,
Thanks, I’m learning how to be subtle.
Thx Judith, and GG I will take what you say on board.
Dio,
GG does have a way with words. I can’t remember the exact wording but in 07 he was having a vigorous debate with a fellow poster. In which he replied that his reaction to said poster, was like his little dog, who was sitting beside him, and something about said dog peeing on him. Help me out GG. I can’t remember the exact wording, but remember laughing for days after when I thought of it.
Bernard Kearne – Crikey is reporting the Turnbull has changed his tune and is willing to negotiate a deal and pass the stimulus. Will he (MB) get the same canning from the media, as Beazley for being a flip flopper??
Finns – snap
Amazing how a 20% PPM figure and a drop ofr 3% to 36% 2PP can clarify the mind.
I hope Rudd continues to ignore the idiots.
Perhaps Turnbull realises that “short term hit” may mean for the length of his remaining time as leader of the opposition. i.e. short.
Someone was asking earier about the cost of the fires. Sky news says the bill will be $2bil.
I sent an email to Costello encouraging him to refute the comments.
scorpio
What evidence do you have to support your claim that Patrick Wolfe’s letter is bogus?
If none, then implying someone who claims to have been directly affected by the fires is a CC campaign invention is political opportunism in the extreme.
dogma,
I think William would rather I not.
690 should read (MT) not MB
Inner Westie I agree – a quick google of patrick wolfe suggests that he is a frequent letter writer to The Age, and not a particulalry pro or anti Rudd one.
Inner Westie, yeah, I quoted the wrong poster.
Notice I said “I think it may have originated”, I never claimed it was “bogus”. I certainly think there is a reasonable suspicion to believe it is being used for political purposes.
It is certainly receiving good support from posters such as yourself and David here.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bushland_has_been_turned_into_impenetrable_scrub/
Yes it must be quite disgusting to the opposition when there is a disaster and the Prime Minister turns up, shows compassion, ensures prompt government assistance and generally does his job in a competent but human manner. He really deservces some flak for that. Why can’t he be back watching from a mansion somewhere on Sydney harbour like a proper leader is supposed to do?
Vera, in the current World-Billion-Throwing-Championship, this is chicken shirt. The Froggy Govt has just thrown $8B to Renault.
#700
I would have thought that the media follows Rudd wherever they can, so if he’s ever going to hug, cry etc., they’re going to be there to record it. Anyway, that opinion implies that he doesn’t hug, cry etc. at other times, but how would anyone know, since, by definition, the media is not there then?
The Reps is going now. Rudd is speaking.
I would’ve been more worried if the politicians of this country were not moved to tears by what they saw and heard.
Socrates
or sunning himself on Bondi Beach
Fins
Where can i buy one of those chicken shirts?
Judith and Scorpio, I think you both need to grow up and stop acting like everyone is trying to personally attack you.
The fact is there was hypocrisy present in the comments of Judith Barnes, and some others, and I pointed it out.
Now you could have responded by saying “I am no mood to debate petty things at the moment”, or you could have thrown out personal insults and acted like this is your personal fiefdom where no one is allowed to question you. You did the latter which achieves nothing.
deaths may reach 300
http://www.theage.com.au/national/fears-bushfire-death-toll-will-reach-300-20090210-82yc.html
And scorpio, it’s the height of irony that you accuse me of “personal attacks” by pointing out hypocrisy and defend those who wish me dead or to “f*ck off”, which apparently, do not constitute personal attacks.
Dare I say, hypocrisy?
Wolfe’s letter is the real deal, I know him and he was burnt out. Wolfe is fond of causes, letters to the editor, activism etc, and mostly I find him an intelligent commentator, however in this case I reckon he could have held his tongue for a bit, he should have realised his passion would immediately be politicised by people he wouldn’t have a bar of usually. However, it’s hard to image the emotions he must be going through at the moment, so I suppose he’s due to be cut a bit of slack …
I read Rudd’s reactions as genuine, and I’m as cynical a bastard as you can get
Good comment Pica.
Oz, you certainly don’t realise it but your last two posts only reinforce what I said earlier.
They demonstrate the shallow nature and pettiness of your comments, nothing more.
For the most part, pollies can’t win in these situations. If they go on site they’re accused of politicking. If they don’t go then they’re accused of being insensitive. If they cry or show any emotion then they’re acting. If they don’t then they’re called heartless. People need to pull their heads in. That includes criticism of Turnbull at Bondi too.
I suggest earlier of a fire-proof shelter. Surely, some company can also come up with a reasonable price and effective fire resistant overall/garments.
http://www.b2btrade.biz/images2/img4890d00d50c97.jpg
plus gloves and shoes. that would at least reduce burn injuries and the cost should be tax deductible or govt subsidised. there are a lot simple things that can be done.
Nice bit of Bolt work there scorpio. No arguments, just a frothy-mouthed lunge for the jugular.
Let me ask you again: when you say you think Mr Wolfe’s letter “may have originated from a political source and been widely disseminated for political purposes”, and when you conclude that this is “quite despicable”, where is your evidence?
If you’re going to drag a person’s integrity into the mud, here’s some advice: back it up old son.
Vera, the last time that i check, they are available at the Bilbo’s Shoppe for Moderation.
From Possum but via the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/pastors-abortion-dream-inflames-bushfire-tragedy-20090210-832f.html
The relationship between Costello and Catch the Fire is discussed on Possum’s site.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/
Rudd is currently making his best parliamentary speech since the apology.
Vera – very true…
I’m glad the MSM have picked it up. Hopefully that leads to some of our politicians repudiating such sick views.
Finns,
Do they sell soap boxes and tiny violins for Oz?
GG, yes, the shoppe used to sell the soap-boxes but after the you-know-what-sheepen-act on them the other day, they went like hot cakes. All sold out.
ShowsOn they should lose their tax exemption for 100 years for such a comment…
Hey Fins, World-Billion-Throwing-Championship would make a great TV show game. You have buckets of cash and the politicians from each country have to throw out as much as they can in a designated time frame. The winning country gets IMF billions. It would certainly give the African countries a real chance
And a couple of kicks in the head too Glen……
The mission of the Catch the Fire Ministries is to take the good news of the gospel from town to town, city to city, state to state, country to country and proclaim the name of Jesus through prayer and action.
In suggesting that those who have suffered and died in the fires are getting their comeuppance on behalf of Victoria’s evil legislators, Pastor Danny Nalliah is not only being grossly insensitive, he is ignoring his mission. I challenge the good pastor to take his toxic message of “deserved condemnation” from Kinglake to Marysville …
(Jesus would be ashamed.)
This sort of thing gets under my skin. Identical letters with two different names attributed to them. They can only come from the one source.
What makes it worse is how the one in the SMH comes with a headline. Clearly, the editor is making a point of it standing out. Why, I wonder?
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/letters/a-chance-for-banks-to-show-they-have-a-heart-20090209-827h.html?page=-1
And this one. I assume it has been sent to every possible publication to get the widest coverage.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/letters/index.php/theaustralian/comments/bushland_has_been_turned_into_impenetrable_scrub/
centaur009 – if Bilbo has any sense of humour, he would let us start a World-Billion-Throwing-Championship here at PB and let us throw the billions at the pollies. I would throw my first billion at the Member for Bass, as she is missing today at QT.
Agree totally centaur…
I don’t think any religious organisations should have tax exemptions.
Russell Broadbent just gave a very, very good speech.
I agree with you there ShowsOn but they should clearly lose that status they currently hold…
Oz, get your facts right, it was the normally non swearing me who told you to f*ck off not scorpio and thats exactly what i meant.
Why isn’t the Member for Bass there, Fins?
I would find it easier to dismiss their inane comments if they were taxed.
There is something that really irks me where organisations of this sort can espouse such intolerant, illiberal, and anti-democratic attitudes, yet the state doesn’t get to tax away some of their earnings, that could be used for good, to make us a better nation.
Especially when these types of religious groups are run like a business…it is a joke that we dont tax them…
Well I think we are all agreed with Oz – Danny Nalliah’s remarks are quite offensive. Some of these pastors seem to be about as knowledgeable of their religeon as the worst self-taught Islamic mullahs. In the New Testament Jesus explicitely repudiates those who ask what sin people who were killed in a disaster must have committed. The answer was we don’t know why they died.
Perhaps Diogenes can explain Danny Nalliah’s “dreams”?
Glen, is that your comment No6 @ 12.05pm in the Herald Sun?
If so, then you sure dragged in some scathing comments.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/comments/0,22023,25033819-661,00.html
Exactly. Tax them all, then provide donations each year to those that have done charity work in the previous year. The onus is on them to prove what charity work they have done.
That’s probably the only way the state would ever get access to any of Scientology’s crooked earned money for example.
Groggy, i dont know. She usually sits next the baby-face member for Petrie and caused a sensation the other day with her dress. Today, someone else is in her seat.
The view that natural disasters were the result of God’s judgement on sin was the standard view of all the Christian denominations until fairly recently. Most of them now don’t have the courage to say so in public. This means they now have no explanation at all for natural disasters, as shown by their total silence at the time of the tsunami.
Glen
On that I strongly agree. I have nothing against tax breaks for the likes of Salvation Army, St Vincent de Paul or any of the mainstream religeons running schools, hospitals and nursing homes. But tax exempt for a lot of fringe fundamentalists has become a rort.
Scorpio i dont post on other blogs…
John Forrest confirms that the Horsham fire was not deliberately lit.
Fins – I’d say it would be a good reaosn (or she might be sitting somewhere else as sometimes happens in non-QT time). There is no way Rudd would give her the day off today for no reason.
The problem is for constitutional reasons it would be very hard to argue which ones are proper religious organisations, which ones are cults, and which ones are essentially money making scams.
So a better policy would be to make them ALL pay tax, then create an independent board that hands some of them government donations each year.
Groggy, maybe she has been sent to coventry or convent because of that DRESS?
may all of Danny Nalliah’s dreams be nightmares, he’s one sick puppy, everytime something upsets you are you supposed to think of something you may have done wrong to cause it? i know some who have done BIG wrongs and they seem to be sailing along ok, i thought those ideas went out with the middle ages, it’s disturbing enough that theres intolerant twits like this around but when you realise some of our senior pollies hobnob with them and preach in their halls then it’s terrifying.
Despite our current level of thought on Victoria…let us not forget that Israel is voting today…
Bibi set to win by all accounts…
Danny Nalliah’s comments turns my stomach. B$%^d act. Pox on Costello for supporting this id%^T.
The Liberal sitting in front of Nelson, spoke for powerfully. One phase sticks in my head. “To those who fight, strenght to your arm … stay safe”. Great words.
speed typing again. change “for” for “very powerfully”
Obama’s given Rudd a call.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25035045-401,00.html
They debated it? Was Barnarby explaining mulipliers to them or did they call in an IPA consultant or maybe a representative from the Republicans?
There is nothing left to debate. They know cash gifts and infrastructure spending perform far better than tax cuts. Kruggman did a blog on a month ago. I think the muliplier for a tax cut was something like 0.7 and for Inrastructure spending 3.0.
The only reason Conservatives love tax cuts is it puts more money in the pockets of the most wealthy and importantly increases the divided between the haves and have nots.
Russell Broadbent
You have to also take into consideration the way that the Australian Government conduct elections for the Senate which distort the outcome of the poll.
Analysis of the 2007 Senate Election showed that
IN QUEENSLAND the Greens Candidate was denied representation due to the method and order adopted in distributing preferences from excluded candidates. If you count the election results with only seven candidates standing Greens Candidate Larisa Waters should have been elected.
IN VICTORIA. ALP’s David Feeney was only elected because one nation had placed the ALP ahead of the Liberal Party. Had one Nation preferenced the Liberals first then the ALP ahead of the Greens the Greens would have been elected. Not on merit but due to the distortion in the non proportional method used to calculate the Surplus Transfer value – A fact that Antony Green later confirmed in his Analysis.
Western Australia has recognised the flaws in the system of counting the vote and adopted what is called Gregory Weighted Surplus Transfer where the value of the Transfer is proportional to the value of the vote. In the Victorian Analysis David Feeney would have lost out to the Greens as a result of this distortion in the value of the vote which deliverd the Greens an additional value equal to over 7,000 votes.
So there is hope for the NSW Greens in winning a senate seat. Even more so if you believe in Andrew Bartlet’s theory of a double dissolution. I fail to see any advantage or reason why the Government would call a double when it has more to lose and nothing to gain.
By making statements like this in his submission last night, Sinclair Davidson certainly telegraphs a Coalition sympathetic agenda.
And News Ltd are certainly giving the negative agenda quite a run over the past couple of days.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25034592-462,00.html
Rudd in his condolence speech named all the countries (heaps of them) and their offers of help, everything from personel to helicopters.
How can the Libs still block the $42bil now after Rudd has given Vic permission to use their cut for new homes and school buildings to be used in the fire devastated towns.
There goes the peace process…
[There goes the peace process…}
Yeah, the US armements industry will be cranking up for a substantial demand from the IDF.
If the government wants to stimulate the economy by providing tax cuts then to would be best done by raising the threshold to compensate for bracket creep due to inflation.
Better still would be to instigate a linear tax system where there is no steps in the calculation of the rate of tax . Replaced by a graduated linear line. The government would then just adjust the starting piont and angle of tax percentage paid.
Whilst not supporting One Nations political agenda There was some merit in a fixed transaction tax system where there is no tax reductions or re-reimbursements. Every transaction would occur a nominal tax of 2%. Any transaction above a certain amount would require payment via electronic bank transfer and tax paid at the time of the transfer. If an item is sold two three or more times down the line it would occur additional transaction taxes. Every Transaction above the threshold would be taxed.
Democracy at work
The trouble with the One Nation proposal is that the 2% rate is pure fiction. Government spending at all levels combined is about 30% of GDP. Even alowing for some multiple taxing, the rate would have to be more like 15% to 20% of every transaction to balance the books. At that point people might decide they don’t like it. Plus the progressive nature of teh tax system woudl dessappear. Unemployed and pensioners would be massively disadvantaged.
Christianity has always held that sin is followed by punishement. It appears that most Christians no longer believe this, but I don’t know what they have put in its place.
I just received this reply from a Costello staffer.
Amazing that Murdoch looking down the gurgler still ‘gives’ permission for his Labor hating journalists to make it more difficult for the govt to help the economy. The man is a fool. How much did the WSJ cost him again? That was a nice toy because ‘I want it’.
I would hazard a guess that Sinclair Davidson is the son of Liberal Senator Gordon Sinclair Davidson.
They believe it when it suits them, and believe something else when it doesn’t.
Adam, pretty tough guess, that one!
I think it was Davidson who used the term Rudd-Bank in his Senate Enquiry testimony. Now where have I heard that term before?
Which pretty much describes religeon
754 TP, the answer to any economic question can be tax cuts to conservatives.
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/02/budget_surplus.html
Socrates I do not think it would be higher then current tax. am also not suggesting that income tax be replaced by a transaction tax.
Income Tax should be on a linear scale without stepped thresholds. You would find that the amount of tax collected with a linear non-stepped forumula would be greater then currently exist.
The Transaction tax without deductions would also bring in much more revenue at a lesser tax rate not increased. It might increase the extent of “black market transactions” but only at the bottom end of the food chain. In the end it would be taxed. A transaction tax without deductions would not feed the financial industry of book keepers accountants and financial planners.
I’m really having problems with Danny Nalliah’s comment. Where can I find a catch the fire follower so I can vent my anger.
Hold on http://catchthefire.com.au/blog/2009/02/10/media-release-abortion-laws-to-blame-for-bush-fires/
at the bottom there are contact details. I urge everyone call the mother F$%^*)
The neo Conservatives and other assorted idiots are at the same game in the USA and seem to be having some success in making a stimulus package a soggy letuce.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/09/adjustments-downward/
QUOTE: Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.
That would indicate an overall drop in minor party support to make up the shortfall.
democracy@work
There was a 2 point drop in the Green primary – it was discussed earlier. I think the general view is that because the economy is front and centre there apparent vote has slipped.
ShowsOn 764
Costello’s office didn’t say anything about disassociating himself publicly from that crazy individual? Of course not. That would bring attention to the ongoing friendly relationship that he and the Catch the Fire ministry enjoy.
I hope a journo or an MP mentions this despicable comment in the MMM so that all Australians can see what a nasty hate filled group they really are.
No, the reply didn’t even say when or where the statement was made. Or if it was just made as a reply to my email.
Thomas pain: Bush fires are a part of the Australian ecology. How we manage it is a question of policy. The intensity of the fire may be due to climate change. No one likes to hear of loss to life and property, But it due to war or environmental disasters. I fail to see any connection to abortions other then a reduction in population slowing down environmental derogation. Sure we should speak up and denounce those responsible for trying to make a link, But spending time on misdirected reprisals is not the solution. It would be best to encourage those outraged to denounce those responsible by logic and argument in the media. I am sure that many of the friends and people effected by the recent bush fires here in Victoria will not be calling for more felling of trees. No doubts some will argue such as part of there land management agenda.
The Australian bush will regenerate, fire is a part of our ecology. Gods plan if you want, a path to rebirth and renewal.
The same could be said for our economy. Whilst we a seek to inject quick fixes should we not be asking more about what went wrong and what can we do to ensure that the excesses of unregulated markets are held to account and pick up the tab for the costs left to others. How many banks made trillions in profits and now seek to off load the burden and responsibility for structural economic failure to those who are not directly to blame.we can expect much more hardship as the population Baby boomers reach retirement and find their Superannuation has been misspent and errorded to little.
DD
No argument on the gradual tax scale. The transaction tax still has many problems that make the GST messy. Consider two competing firms, one vetically integrated, say Woolworths vs an independant grocer. Woolies has one transaction buying produce from a farm and pays tax once, then the rest of the changes are internal as it produces its own brand products. The independant has farmers transacting to producers, who transact to wholesalers who transact to the independant market. The goods might get taxed four times. You then need a complex GST style method to claim three lots of the tax back for the later, but that means an army of accountants.
Several countries don’t require PAYE earners to lodge tax returns. That would save time and is a great idea IMO.
I agree it is a good idea, but because of the dogs breakfast of transfer payments we have, many people have to put in a tax return.
Maybe Ken Henry will provide some solution in his Tax review.
PS on the tax front what happened to the Ergas tax review?
Danny Nalliah’s dream doesn’t really need interpretation. He has a wish for a fire to cleanse Victoria and prove that his marginalised view of the world is right. It would be a way of him seeing revenge taken on a world that has spurned him. These people actually hope that others suffer. They are very sick little puppies. The dream is just a manifestation of that fantasy, as are lots of our dreams.
And while he deserves nothing but contempt, I don’t think now is a great time to be criticising religion, or the religious. It’s providing a lot of people with much-needed comfort.
If he was a Muslim he would be called a terrorist.
How is his statement different to a member of Al Queda saying that Westerners are valid targets for Jihad, because of the way we choose to live?
If we are to pump prime the economy I must admit I would be supportive of a well managed infrastructure investments designed to bring save energy and water and develop and encourage conservation industries. Much more can and should be done in this area. I find it absurd to limit the amount of energy a home solar energy collection system can pump into the system. They can not even share the excess power with their neighbours due to restrictive anti-competitive government policy If more money was spent on energy and water conservation technology industries I would think we would go a long way to resolving two problems at the same time. Economic development and Environmental sustainability.
The price for rain water tanks and solar collectors are still prohibitive. How much water collected by our roads is wasted and contributes to environmental derogation Water that could be collected and used to sustain our urban lifestyle. Srfe pipe lines may be a solution but conservation and improved management must take first priority. I do not think we can any more wait for a break in the drought or the pipeline to come on line. The cost of water supply will surely rise. Australian, may very soon be the first to become environmental/economic refugees as we seek residence else where.
I think thats one of the aims of the governments tax reforms isn’t it? The etax software has an ‘autofill details’ function that comes pretty close & a friend who works in the tax office has heard that such a system is being worked on.
Diog
I agree – Nalliah is an extremist, his views need to be condemned, but he still has the right , in my view, to make them.
Religion is a great comfort for many, I cannot understand why personally, but hey whatever floats your boat.
Sure, but I hope the center of Australian politics vocal repudiates him consistently and strongly.
And of course it is important for Costello to be one of these, because he previously backed him.
You’re not wrong
Oh Dear! It would be interesting to see who would win the race for ‘martyr of the year’, Fielding or Turnbull.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25035398-29277,00.html
“You then need a complex GST style method to claim three lots of the tax back for the later, but that means an army of accountants.”
You have missed the point of my argument. There would not be any right to claim back any payment. It is a fixed tax. Farmers will soon realise they can sell their products direct to consumers at a cheaper rate. Farmers markets begin to grow supply and demand. Large Supermarket chains already have an advantage in the tax system in that they are not paying for internal services. But they will have to pay tax without reductions for goods bought and sold and not just on the profit margin. Accountants and the like are the biggest losers as their role is no longer based around seeking reductions.
Smart kid here. If there are more like him around, then Conroy’s internet filter doesn’t stand a chance.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7874291.stm?lss
Surely Fielding didn’t write this.
Incidentally, I’m a huge fan of Berlin’s books on value pluralism. It closely reflects my political views (the brief version is that in a liberal democracy people need to accept that others may choose to live their lives in ways that others don’t approve of, and that it is the challenge of liberal democracy to contain these conflicts in the ways that people view different aspects of liberty)
Didn’t Berlin write “White Christmas?”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1GPxcxrBkI
The Australian
Turnbull calls on Rudd to keep aid, stimulus plan separate
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25035814-601,00.html
X now says he can’t support the package in its current form. I thought this bloke was smarter and more worldly than this. Fielding is a dunce for sure but X has demonstrated that he will play political games to the detriment of the Nation simply to get his face on the cover of the Adelaide Addy.
I know it’ll take 3 months or so to get all of the cards lined up but I am now supportive of a DD election. The Australian public love the Rudd government and will return it with an increased majority in the house and dump Fielding and maybe a liberal or 3 in the senate. Go for broke is my position.
X wants water reform in the stimulus. I not sure how that would produce alot of jobs in the range the government want. This reform should be in a seperate package.
On Fielding, yep, what poss said.
Are people here aware that nalliah was the #2 Senate candidate, behind Fielding, for Family First at the 2004 election?
DD
I have not missed your point. Under that system vertically integrated firms would kill their unintegrated competitors very quickly. It would annihilate small retailers all over the country. Your explanation of large supermarkets doesn’t follow either. This proposal won’t stop them having market power to exploit small suppliers. How will they pay a tax under this system their smaller competitors won’t? The trouble is that most small producers need MORE layers of firms to get their goods to market, not less, hence they have more transactions and will pay more tax. This is a recipe for monopolists.
Fredex
Yes, that is one of the reasons I have been bagging Fielding for quite a while. He is the smiling front man for a bunch of nutters. His financial backers are even worse.
If Keating were still in parliament, I can imagine him using the term “unrepresentative dill” for Mr 2%.
Talkback radio, letters to editors and blog comments have been calling for the Govt. to do exactly this.
I can understand Turnbull wanting the separation – but I think he is on a loser here.
Turnbull strikes me as being unable to “think on his feet”, he formulates a strategy and hangs on to it for too long.
Now he has opened himself to claims that he is against the reconstruction of these communities – not fair and not true I know, but politics is perception.
Dill.
Turnbull has woken up to the fact that his political game will draw some critical public focus.
Thomas, like Ruawake said, this is what people have been asking for in newspaper blogs and letters to Ed. This part, game may it be, but he’s geniune in wanting to help rebuild those effected towns.
Hinch vents: http://www.3aw.com.au/blogs/blog-with-derryn-hinch/hinch-blog-the-most-callous-ever/20090210-83bw.html
Not every day you find yourself agreeing with Derryn…
Fielding can huff and puff as much as he likes. But, the reality is if he don’t pass the package then the Senate is unworkable and a DD is on the way. At which time his 15 minutes of fame will be terminated 18 months early.
Feilding and Xenaphon are playing games, the media are trying to guess their position. If either of them are the single vote that sees the stimulus fail in the Senate they are in all kinds of electoral pain.
Especially X who may think he has 6 years of Senatorial bliss. I am sure Rudd will “die in a ditch” over the stimulus and call a DD in 3 months time if the bills are not passed.
Please tell me you’re kidding.
FIELDING, Steve Family First Party
NALLIAH, Danny Family First Party
BLAZE, Annette Family First Party
MEYER, Allan Family First Party
BOWN, Ann Family First Party
Yep – maybe its time Derryn asks Feilding the obvious question?
And if Fielding drops dead right now, guess who takes his place.
Family First are looking more and more like a bunch of nut jobs.Very scary!
Not automatically. It would be up to FF to nominate a candidate.
Danny Nalliah, putting the fire-ravaged families of Victoria first (by claiming they deserved to die).
Fielding should be called to repudiate the hateful remarks of his 2IC …
Yes, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Fanatics First does indeed nominate their second choice on thier ticket.
While I wish Feilding all the biblical pestilences I can imagine (I am sure he could imagine more) I do not wish his demise, in the mortality sense.
I hope he has a long life – so he can torment himself for many decades to come.
I wasn’t wishing his demise, I was just pointing out what would happen to his Senate seat if the proverbial did happen.
Frank, That’s quite possibly where the true power behind FF lies. Fielding is IMO a front man who is considered by the nutters in the CTFM as more acceptable to the ordinary church going Australian than others within the organisation. I too would love to see Fielding called on to “repudiate the hateful remarks” as I doubt that he would do so.
BTW I also email the member for Higgins and received the same cut and paste job as ShowsOn. I have replied to that email and said that it’s not good enough for Mr. Costello to simply respond to the approaches of others. I suggest a speech in parliament reject this recent comment from the CTCM but to also reject their earlier anti Jewish and anti gay statements. I said if he doesn’t say this in parliament then as a minimum he should publish a media release along these same lines.
I don’t expect a response but I’m hopeful that Darryn Hinch will.
“Without stimulus crisis could become catastrophe: Obama”.
“Doing little or nothing at all will result in even greater deficits, even greater job loss, even greater loss of confidence,” Mr Obama said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487728.htm?section=justin
I wonder if this will be raised by Labor if a June election is called?
Sorry Frank I did not mean to imply you wanted him to be hit by the proverbial.
Gouing by this, it seems as though Steve Fielding has some difficulty with his arithmatic.
Does anyone else see the same discrepency that I perceive in his position?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487677.htm?section=justin
Nice comment to Hinch by the way ruawake.
Although I’m a little worried that you visit that place.
Freaking heck…
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25035773-31037,00.html
fredex
A mans gotta do…
X has visions of being the Harradine of SA.
Steve K, Cossie comments in here, by the way according to the nutter the world economic crisis is caused by sin as well.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/pastors-abortion-dream-inflames-bushfire-tragedy-20090210-832f.html
No problems with that, but there’s a time and a place… The time is the budget, not now.
Now’s as good a time as any for Mr X to stand for for the Murray. This package seems to have been cobbled together without a lot of strategic thought. The Budget is much harder to change. All the Ruddster has to do is lob $2B into stormwater capture and improving irrigation systems to reduce evaporation and everyone will be happy.
I hope another Mr X Senate candidate gets in at the next election in SA. He’s unpredictable. I like that. He’s a true mavericky maverick.
BTW I encourage everyone to comment at the Catch The Fire website. The moderator needs to earn his money. I don’t hold out much promise for mine but they do slip up occasionally. Fielding is going to be absolutely rooted when he gets asked why his 2IC rejoices in the burning of children as punishment for the actions of politicians.
meh just argy bargy negotiation and peacock feather displays.
There shall be furious talks in the next 48hrs or so
I am surprise they still have money to hold a junket like this. It’s still tough though to have to do it at the San Francisco Marriott. Just as well Turnbull was not scheduled to speak at this conference. When will they ever learn?
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/Money/Story/STIStory_336491.html
Geez, remember when $2b was a lot of money…
Diogenes,
Here’s a bone for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHSvNw5yxXI
That it low of Rudd to combine the Bushfire funds to his stimulus package…i really never thought he’d sink that low to get what he wants…
Senator Xenophon says he is inclined to support the package if the Government speeds up funding for water-saving projects in the Murray-Darling.
“This is money that is already allocated,” he said.
“It’s a matter of fast-tracking that money as part of ensuring that those communities have a fighting chance of survival in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, the ACT and South Australia.”
OK Nick X – Fast track-r-us done deal? Yep.
He is no longer asking for extra funds.
So now its up to Feilding, who I suggest may not like tomorrow too much.
Have to agree Glen. He would so well not to link the 2 at all.
No Glen he is saying that Vic and Qld can use the money in fire and flood affected regions. Not new money – the bucks your mob oppose.
Sucked in.
I heard a few interesting things on JJJ about the bushfires today.
1. 24% of Oz houses are not insured (not necessarily in this area)
2. Vic has a law for arson causing death which allows for a sentence of up to 25 years
3. The insurers are taking counsellors with them to interview the families
4. There is a suspect for the Gippsland fires whose photo will be shown in the next day of two (I wouldn’t want to look like him and live in Gippsland)
He actually didn’t. Part of the stimulus plan is for public housing, Rudd is now allowing QLD and Victoria to use some of that money (at the state government’s discretion) for rebuilding projects in the flood or fire ravaged areas.
So say there was a community hall that burnt down, or was damaged in floods, the state government will now be able to allocate some of the public housing money to build a new community hall.
The reasl question is this, will the Liberals block the federal government spending money on the Victorian bush fires if it results in a bigger budget deficit?
That is extremely unlikely to be true. The package would have been carefully crafted and modeled and so forth. Treasury is behind it of course, non neocon economists and business.
It would be a cobbled together thing to just pluck a figure from the air, say $2bn, without any modeling, costing and so forth because it sounds nice and makes people feel good. They can direct $2bn to an appropriate infrastructure project put up by SA, provided it can be up and ready to go in the necessary time frame to stop our economy from sinking. It is not appropriate to add something to it that cannot be expended in the time frame.
This is a Stimulus package, it has a very specific purpose. Either people agree one is necessary or not.
I do remember Fran Bailey suggesting much the same thing the other day too…
I hope Kerry O’Brien and the guy he’s interviewing, as well as the entire ABC studio burn down right now.
Is it guaranteed that Labor won’t preference FF again at the next election? Did they at the last election?
Rudd is meant to make up a new bill especially for Turnbull when there are already funds in the Stimulus package ready to go for Vic to use, for why? To enable Turnbull to play politics would be the only possible answer.
Wouldn’t that be terribly inefficient and slow things down?
Glen,
Do you think Turnbull feels a “Howard type” Wedgie coming on.
I don’t think there will be too much sympathy for him really.
Yeah, but rua, I still think he should not mention the two in the same sentence – it’s cheap. The ALP will win this without hitting low.
Glen,
Apart from a few obvious dropkicks who have rightly been pinged here and elsewhere, no one is trying to use the Bushfires to score cheap political points. Rudd is not, Turnbull is not and so could you please remain attached the conga line of pleasant platitudes.
Cheers.
So do I, and I thought her stupid for doing so as well.
Stimulus package != Rudd’s stimulus package.
Linking the bush fires to the stimulus package is a far more overt example of “playing politics” then the dozens of climate scientists, government commissioners, emergency response personnel and journalists stating a scientific fact.
The temptation for Rudd to kick the Liberals while their down must be strong, but Grog is right, they’re going to win anyway.
On 7:30 Report it said the Rudd is allowing (encouraging?) the Vic govt to give the affected towns priority for accessing the infrastructure funds.
Look it is a sensible idea, but I just think Rudd needs to be very careful that he is not using the fire victims as a political tool. Maybe he hasn’t. I just think he should be very… careful.
Off topic, but perhpas an addition to William’s guidelines:
Geez, the jury (or Chesterton) obviously don’t do a lot of blogging!
Woops – sorry link to the Laws story:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/10/2487791.htm?section=justin
Rudd has put Govt legislation to the parliament – he has a reason for doing so – to stimulate the economy.
Despite the focus on the fires in Vic (appropriate of course) there is also a lesser tragedy occuring in the North of Qld. Where an area about the same size as half of SA was under water.
Rudd’s package has at its core things that can be done quickly – well surely rebuilding these communities need to be done quickly?
All he has done is to say that the funds can be used for this purpose.
Entirely consistent with the reason for the package in the first place.
He, and the entire parliament, should be burnt to the ground.
Oz
Get over it. Brown’s first comment was correct but his timing was appalling.
I agree. It would be outrageous for the parliament to pass this package WITHOUT enabling the money to be used to rebuild some of these communities!
As it stands, the legislation would only be about ot be used for public HOUSING. All Rudd is doing is loosening those rules so it could be used to, for example, build a community hall.
Ruawake, when Brown said what he said the death toll was around 70. When the SMH, The Guardian, the ABC, the CSIRO, the Victorian Disaster Commissioner, the University of Sydney, RMIT and god knows who else came out and said the same thing the fires were still burning and the death toll was tripling. I’m trying to figure out what’s different. The only conclusion I can see is the one I stated right back at the start – the “playing politics” came from those initially criticising Brown, who made a completely non-political comment, and then try and warp what everyone else said to defend their laughable position.
They should be disgusted with themselves.
Oz,
ru is right. Time to build a bridge. I’ll even donate a new soapbox.
My opinion of most of you Rudd lovers on this blog has dropped massively, you are a sick bunch if you think it is appropriate to wedge someone on funding relief to bushfire victims…you’re a disgrace!
The bushfire relief deserves to be treated seperately for gods sake this is our worst ever natural disaster and you all think it is ok for Rudd to wedge Turnbull on his stimulus package…i never knew that the ALP would stoop so low…
So you are saying you would prefer the parliament to pass a bill that explicitly stops money from being spent to rebuild these towns.
To me that is nonsensical.
Oz
Are not elected politicians to the best of my knowledge.
Glen
Turnbull wedged himself.
Hahahahahahahahaha… not obscene?
Rua you are a disgrace…
This is our worst natural disaster it warrants a seperate bill for funding and reconstruction…
If you think it is appropriate to use the bushfires to wedge Turnbull you are scum IMHO…
Politics should have nothing to do with this disaster…
Dario,
Apparently, we are like good sex: disgraceful and obscene.
The way I see it Glen Turnbull has been trying to wedge Rudd on the package since it was first proposed. He is playing games while Rudd is trying to stave off an economic catastrophe. Turnbull’s sticking point is that he wants tax cuts to be brought forward rather than the cash injection. That’s a pretty small mole hill to be arguing over while the economic storm clouds gather. Turnbull has only himself to blame for the position he’s in. I believe the in a way Rudd has given him an out where he can agree to pass the package as it stands by saying that the pig headed attitude of the government was putting the rebuilding in VIC and QLD at risk and that he could no contribute to any elay by continuing to improve the package in the parliament.
Now we can see what a stupid tactic it was a week ago to stand up in parliament and say that he would block the package – no discussion; no negotiation; just block it outright. Dumb politics.
There will be one Glen, but do you really want to make it impossible for QLD and Victoria to use SOME of the public housing money to build other public buildings?
Also, I also wonder how many Liberals will complain that rebuilding these towns will likely increase the federal budget deficit and probably require the Victorian government to borrow more.
yes, true, but he’s sailing too close to the JWH wind for my liking. Some things don’t need to be said.
It’s the punch Ali never gave Foreman when he was going down. (to quote The West Wing)
They would have to be said to amend the legislation currently before parliament.
Glen
Rudd has said the Govt. fund for the disasters will be open ended. It is Turnbull who is linking the two not Rudd.
If you think that Rudd is saying the only funding that the Vic and Qld people facing these tragedies is the stimulus package – may I say it is you who deserve the abuse you are happy to fling my way.
Geez, steady on Glen… and has anyone actually got a direct quote of Rudd on this? All I have seen is:
anyone got a link?
If this follows the usual form, very soon Glen will post that “nuclear energy” is the solution.
Frank did you see this piece written by Shane Wright in the West Australian?
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/02/lets-call-stimulus-snob-snob.html
y’know, believing in CC implicitly i’ve always had time for Brown and preferenced the greens every election and encouraged my family to do likewise, after coming across the green adherants in here i’m wondering if i’ve been doing the wrong thing and others who called them radical might not have been so wrong after all, i’ll keep doing my CC things because i truly believe in what i’m doing and i sincerely want to make a difference, but preferencing–i dont know.
I had high hopes of Rudd being a Blairite Prime Minister for our country but by him directly associating his contentious stimulus package with the bushfire relief effort…words cannot describe how angry i am with his tactic, even Howard wouldnt stoop so low and he’d play politics with the best of them but god this scumbag Rudd has got no morals whatsoever by using the bushfires to get his policy through…
ShowsOn the part of the package we have disagreed with is the cash handouts…so Rudd is saying if you dont support the package you’ll be making people worse off in disaster areas…what a low political stunt this is…
Nah, he will say Rudd is exhibiting “hubris”.
my bullshite meter just exploded right there Glen.
Glen
hold onto your faux indigantion for all its worth.
It’s all you and the lib’s got.
Btw Ruawake was only pointing out the bleeding obvious
And I felt the splatter from here.
I knew that Sinclair Davidson was wrong last night at the senate committee meeting. He claimed that tax cuts were the best way to stimulate the economy. He quoted Obama’s chief economist advisor and a Professor Mankiw. Peter Martin has the article rebuking Sinclair Davidson’s claim. I wonder if the News limited media will print a correction from the story they wrote today.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/02/ausrtralias-tax-cuts-versus-government.html
Glen
It was Turnbull who linked the two.
Glen,
You are always angry about something. Your problem is you think we care.
Glen, Your mock anger is a little too obvious to me. Fancy you comparing Rudd with the first term Blair. You’ve hated Rudd all along but now you’d have us believe that you had a begrudging respect that’s now been blown away.
Pull the other one pal – it plays Waltzing Matilda.
This is nonsense Glen. The bushfire and flood victims are already receiving $1000 payments from Centerlink for adults and $400 from children that are COMPLETELY UNRELATED to the $950 hand outs in the stimulus package.
People who have had their houses destroyed will be about to receive $224 a week for 13 weeks irrespective of their income. Again, this has NOTHING to do with the stimulus package, it is an emergency payment that the government can implement as an administrative decision, no legislation required.
I say it again. The $6.6 billion for public housing in the stimulus package is for the construction of new public HOUSES or for upgrading of existing public houses. The COAG meeting last week produced an agreement between the Feds and States that that money could only be spent on those two purposes – building new public houses, or fixing up old ones.
The ONLY change Rudd has made is that QLD and VIC governments can now uses SOME of that money to build OTHER public buildings that AREN’T houses. Like community halls, or post offices, or police stations. All the sorts of buildings that got burnt down over the weekend.
That is the ONLY change here, and with respect I think you are over reacting.
Greensborough Growler (865), uranium exports to India would certainly boost our economic position and help a major polluter produce clean energy. Areva, a French company largely owned by the French Government, has agreed to help India establish at least two nuclear power plants, and possibly four more. We should get into the action before it’s too late.
France of course produces most of its electricity through nuclear power. Sweden has reversed its policy of phasing out nuclear power. We have many clean energy options but would be wise to include nuclear power the mix.
If we export uranium, we should take back the waste – but at a very good price.
Showson,
Well said!
TT,
Bloody Nora! I’ve let the fart out of the bottle.
And you forgot the Federal govt matching the Victorian Govt’s donation to the Bushfires Appeal, plus support from the Defence Forces etc.
You’re being “un-Australian” Glen
There was an Australian government once, long long ago, over 30 years, but some Liberals can’t quite count. That wanted to have a uranium processing industry in Australia.
The horse has bolted, the gates have rusted, and it would have cost less than a billion.
Spilt milk.
castle,
Unfair!
Whingeing, bitching complaining about a squirrel grip.
That’s about as Australian as you can get!
Apart from the bravery, stoicism and grace under pressure that is the rest of us.
God bless our volunteers in this time of crisis.
This is what Rudd said:
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=550338
And I hope they don’t vote against it on the grounds that it will put the federal government further into debt.
Gotta say that’s not much of a link…
The scaremongering has started, John Mangos Sky News just said he had received an email, could the fires be terrorists!
http://www.theage.com.au/national/islam-group-urges-forest-fire-jihad-20080906-4b53.html?page=-1
vera,
Landeryou is all over it! I thinks it is a beat up BTW.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/2684/terror-link-did-jihadist-terrorists-light-victorias-bushfires/
I saw that earlier showson, I guess Sky news are a bit behind The Age
Glen, you’re clearly the one playing politics with this. It doesn’t wash.
Geez, even Bolt thought this was stupid.
Catch the Fire – ???
Oz, your comments here over the past few days have been consistently revolting. Whatever it is with you, why don’t you get over it?
GG are you adding ‘we are like good sex: disgraceful and obscene.’ to finns amigo code
I think as in Fire and Brimstone – totally apt for a bunch of Religious Philistines.
P.Z. Myers – legend:
http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/australias_current_afflictions.php
Glen 868
If there is any resentment of the stimulus – disaster relief link it is only sour grapes. From a national POV it is so obviously sensible it is absurd to debate – we need to spend the money, they need money spent on them, presto. The only reason for resentment is that Turnbull has locked himself out of negotiations over the stimulus thanks to his “principled stand”. Thus he will get none of the credit that Labor, Greens, Xenephon and Fielding will receive. Too bad; its his own fault. Even after having treasury officials dragged into parliament to explain it, he still said he would vote against. You can’t act as a spoiler and a statesman at the same time.
vera,
Only problem is that if we do, then everyone wil want to join.
Judith I agree with you again @867 I’ve always put Greens 2nd too but this constant carping lately about how guttless and dishonest The ruddster is plus the fact I’ve gone off Brown a bit and couldn’t vote for that Milne woman in a fit makes me think I’ll be carefully checking out the Independents for the number 2 spot next time.
God help me am I’m getting conservative in my old age!
Mr. Cricket is back!!! About ffffing time.
Did anyone watch 4corners last night? It was on the economy, banks not lending. Scary stuff
I’m with Glen on this, the Government is right to offer complete assistance to Victorian and Queensland but it should be totally new money beyond that provided in the $42Billion package, today I give Kev his first black mark from an otherwise well handled response by the Brumby Government.
Yeah it has been good, no need to cut to close-ups of the moon tonight.
Why a guy who earns $50,000 a year got $1.8 million worth of loans from two different banks I have no idea.
Does australia have the equivalent of FEMA?
If so-does it have the authority to declare state of emergency, control resources etc
If not perhaps now is the best time to co-ordinate the various state and relief agencies etc
Even considering how completely debt averse the Liberals are?
Gusface! I believe the answer is No, which is strange considering that Mother Nature likes to dish all sorts of stuff out, I recall the Liberals in the mid 1990s talked about it but like most things Howard was talk but inactive.
LOL!:
http://clubtroppo.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/ned10-02-09_economist.jpg
The Liberals should be putting budget considerations a side at present considering these fires are impacting on Liberal held seats.
The Kinglake & Murridini fires have burnt over half the federal seat of McEwan.
Something stinks when the co. asked the clients to give more money last year to buy, when everybody was warning of a recession and US was already in one. Although the reporter took pains to say that this co. wasn’t the only one that gave that advice. Apparently it was a standard model.
It showed me that this is all about the banks. The US banks caused this and know our own banks, even though they’re stable and profitable aren’t lending to companies that have lots of assets. This is a banking recession.
I hope Gerry Harvey’s right when he said that maybe in 2yrs things will look up and after that we’re going to have a super boom.
Glen, i think this is for you as well. Happy Valentine.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7880377.stm?lss
Under the Australian Constitution, the primary responsibility for the protection of life and property rests with State and Territory governments as they exercise control over most of the functions which are necessary for effective disaster prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. Each of these State and Territory governments has developed counter-disaster arrangements, operates emergency service agencies and coordinates related activities through emergency/disaster management committees. These emergency service agencies rely heavily on the support of hundreds of thousands of trained volunteers who provide services such as search and rescue, firefighting and medical care.
The role of the Federal Government is to provide guidance and support in developing State and Territory capacity for emergency management and to provide requested assistance in the event of a major emergency when State or Territory resources are inappropriate, exhausted or unavailable. Such assistance is coordinated through Emergency Management Australia (EMA)
http://www.ema.gov.au/
Ru ta for that link-
found this interesting
http://www.attorneygeneral.gov.au/www/ministers/RobertMc.nsf/Page/MediaReleases_2009_FirstQuarter_1February2009-RuddGovernmenttoAddressBushfireArsonwithStatesandTerritories
Adam,
Without trying to be unfair, you did say that most bushfires were caused by lightning. Gusface’s quote at 914 contradicts your assertion.
A poll on the stimulus pacakge
http://whatthepeoplewant.nationalforum.com.au/archives/003463.html
TP,
The research is qualitative.
An excellent show of mateship has been shown by the kind New Zealand Prime Minister John Key. He will send out 100 firefighters to help fight the fires in Victoria.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4842609a11.html
GG, so it seems. I don’t believe I have claimed to be infallible. I recall reading that somewhere, but maybe it was a reference to forest fires as oppposed to all fires.
Bravo Mr Key.
Now, Bree, say something nice about Mr Rudd.
And that nice Mr Barnett from WA has also donated $1 Million to the appeal and has sent Fire personel, Police Identification Experts as well as Health Dept Forensic staff.
Is that the Mr Barnett who has so wholeheartedly supported the Rudd government’s stimulus package?
Adam,
Sorry for the pedantry. However, I’ve lost friends and other friends have lost everything. PB for sanity atm.
Yep, one and the same
Adam, all I’ve done is repeat what scores of others in the public have said and defend their timing.
This whole thing is getting a bit old, but Rudd’s Army shines on.
TP, one of the bloggers on that site is Andrew Laming the liberal MP, of course he’s not advertising that, he’s acting as an ordinary blogger, first they infest our newspapers with their unwanted columns, then its the letters to the editor taking up space that knocks out ordinary writers communicating, then to add to it they start infesting the blogs, someone tell them to be satisfied with their doorstop interviews.
Gee, a divergence of opinion on whether the timing of a remark made by Brown 2 days ago was appropriate. Time to move on, people.
My thoughts.
Assistance to Victoria is something that is (obviously) agreed by both sides.
It is already known (rightly or wrongly) that there is disagreement about the stimulus. Knowing, and in spite of this, Kevin ties the assistance to the stimulus. Why is Turnbull being blamed for pointing this out and stating it should be separate?
It is being used as some sort of “blackmail”. Kevin had a choice, Turnbull doesn’t unless they betray their own beliefs (which may or may not be right, but it’s a separate matter, that’s the point) on the other matters.
The Government report from the Senate Inquiry is recommending the package be passed and the Opposition report says they should be rejected.
The cross benchers want more for their own little niches.
Effectively, we’re at the same place we were last week except the cross benchers have articulated their views more clearly (Fielding – unemployed, Xenophon – Murray-Darling) and everyone hates Turnbull.