Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:
• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent’s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).
• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.
• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.
• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.
• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.
• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.
Other news:
• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.
• Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.
3,047 Comments
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Come on Adam, leak us the amendments.
Can we hit 3000?
theres a full page story in todays dead tree version of the Advertiser bagging Bishop, next door bought it in all indignant fury and wondered why i laughed.
Sorry centaur, when you offer odds that something will happen, that means if someone take you on it, they are betting it will happen at the odds you offered.
You offered odds of 100 to 1 that X would vote yes, I put 20 on it, meaning I bet 20 that he would vote yes.
You were thinking as a punter, not as a bookmaker.
dio, I’m not against action for the murray. but I don’t think that x should have held ransom the economy of the whole nation for a murray package that already exists. I think that maybe x has probably done he dash on this one. Anymore obstructionist tactics by him on big important packages will not go down well.
I agree to some extent with Dio @ 2783:
“And to everyone trying to make this about Mr X or Turnbull, it’s not. It’s about what Rudd will do. He’s the boss.”
Rudd and Co have made a convincing case to the electorate that this stimulus package needs to be passed soonest if its to have anything like the desired effect. The debt involved is huge, but they have also pretty much convinced the electorate that it is appropriate for the times. Yup, from Poss’s site the data shows that it looks like most coalition voters aren’t convinced, but at the moment given the polling, , i’d say the unconvinced coalition voters are the rusted on Libs who arent going to change their minds no matter what. Rusted on minorities don’t decide elections so forget them.
Not getting the package through would hurt Rudd.
Rudd needs to be seen to get this package through no matter what.
But, achieve that and the political downside of any future, perceived problems, particularly with debt is all Turnbulls. Xenophon will do alright with this as far as his SA constituency is concerned, provided he votes for this package today.
Looks to me like this is turning into a disaster of epic proportions for Turnbull, and all of his own making.
So X and the government have made a deal today. That was more predictable than the ending of the movie “Titanic”.
Xenophon’s speaking now.
Here goes Mr X …
X is up now.
Here comes Nick
OK, we get it!
Here we go!
My goodness we are a sad bunch… hanging on the every word of Parliament
“If politics was a popularity contest most of us would be out of jobs”.
I thought it was?
dogma
It’s politics. He needed some way to force the issue and the stimulus package provided it. He would have been criticised heavily in SA is he didn’t.
I agree that doing this once per term is about the maximum. We don’t want to be seen as being difficult in SA.
So he’s being friendly with The Greens and in particular, Sarah Hanson-Young. Doesn’t say much about Bernard Keane’s analysis that their arch nemesis.
Stop pretending that the MD is purely a SA issue.
I didn’t buy that argument either, because Xenophon was the THIRD Senator elected, not the 5th or 6th!
$900 million MDB spending, additional $500 million bringing more money forward, $200 million in grants, $200 million for storm water harvesting.
So he got about another $1.5 billion more,, but about $2 billion less than what he asked for yesterday.
He really likes the Wentworth Group our Xenophon.
Can Fielding handle the pressure between 4 hard places and 19 rocks….
Stay tuned!
Decent compromise then ShowsOn.
HAH Fielding is spewing.
The question is how long the Government is going to keep letting Xenophon get away with this act.
Yehaa!! Done deal and Turnbull / Bishop are toast. Anyone reckon this thread will get to 3000 now??
Somebody please put Fielding out of his(our) misery
Won’t there be a Morgan Poll out in 3 hours?
Democracy in action. Beautiful to see. Well done to the Ruddster and Mr X. Roll on the next election.
Wish Fielding would just say yes and sit down. Will any of the Coalition get to speak against this or do they just do the business and move on?
Does that include the money from yesterday?
Yeah Dario, I think this is the new deal in it’s entirety.
#2824
I thought Turnbull was going to be toast if the package wasn’t passed. Now everything depends on whether it works. If we stay out of recession I agree he’s toast.
If Morgans out today, wont they have already finished their polling? So if they show the Libs in freefall with tangled parachutes, we would have to wait for Essential to see the crater they will make on impact?
Ok, so about $800m of new money then, with $500m brought forward.
I think unless it’s a bad recession he’s toast anyway
Fielding, to my surprise, makes a very astute point: if Howard has listened to him on IR, as Rudd has listened to him on the GFC, he might still be in office.
First sense he’s made in a long time
If Fielding was Hillary, he’d eat those rocks and turn those hard places into marshmallow couches.
Look I acknowledge something needs to be done abiut the Murray- Darling.
And without doubt the stimulus package needed to be passed urgently to avoid diabolical economic and social consequences.The Government in these unique circumstaces of urgency and emergency had no option but to secure Xenophon’s vote at any cost.
But regardless of the merits of X
Brown to Coalition: You’ve missed the bus.
Bob Brown is now providing a narrative history of what has happened in the Senate over the last 24 hours.
I’m sure historians will thank him in 100 years time.
HAHA the Liberals accuse The Greens of “selling out”.
They’re just jealous they have no principles to sell out.
Well it looks like Mr. Turnbull and his COALition parties have been rendered ….irrelevant.
Bob Brown is really enjoying himself!
I wish the camera would show us the looks on the faces of the impotent ones.
Hahaha gee the Libs are getting nasty!
Brown has been ordered to “go back to Tasmania” hahahaha.
The Coalition is absolutely gutted.
“Go back to Tasmania” lol
Bob Brown: “… (great outcome etc.) … It must leave the opposition wondering how on earth they missed this bus.”
Go Bob. Talking up public transport!
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