Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Newspoll: 58-42

Newspoll has come a day early – or six days late, depending on your perspective. Key findings of the survey, which was conducted over the past two days:

• Labor’s two-party lead has blown out to 58-42 from 54-46 at the last Newspoll three weeks ago (although Peter Brent’s “rough calculation” had it at 55-45).

• Fifty-seven per cent believe the stimulus package will be good for the economy, and 48 per cent believe it will make them personally better off. Support is inversely proportional to age.

• Labor is up five points on the primary vote to 48 per cent, with the Coalition’s down three to 36 per cent.

• Kevin Rudd’s approval rating is steady on 63 per cent, and his disapproval up one to 26 per cent.

• Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down one point to 44 per cent, and his disapproval is up seven to 38 per cent.

• Sixty-three per cent believe the government is doing a good job managing the economy, and only 33 per cent believe the Coalition would do better.

Other news:

• The Greens’ parliamentary leader in New South Wales, Lee Rhiannon, has quit her Legislative Council seat and declared her intention to run for the Senate (UPDATE: Not quite – she has “informed the party that when federal elections are called, I’ll resign to stand for Federal Parliament, if I win preselection”). Brian Robins of the Sydney Morning Herald says Rhiannon “appears to be positioning herself to replace the party’s federal leader”. She may have her work cut out: the only time the Greens have won a seat in the state was when Kerry Nettle got in on One Nation preferences in 2001. Generally the problem has been that Labor are too strong in the state for the Greens to get ahead of their third candidate. Two scenarios for success suggest themselves: one involves the Greens gaining at least 5 per cent on the Coalition on the primary vote, which would raise the possibility of a result of three Labor, two Liberal, one Greens; the other is a double dissolution.

Linda Silmalis of the Daily Telegraph reports the Coalition has been “desperate to find a high-profile candidate to take on Maxine McKew in the Sydney seat of Bennelong”, which it hopes “will be enough for Labor to consider transferring McKew to a safer seat”. It doesn’t sound like they’re having much luck: among those to have knocked back the offer are Kerry Chikarovski, former Opposition Leader and member for the locally situated state seat of Lane Cove, and Andrew Tink, former Shadow Police Minister and recent departee from state politics.

UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor’s lead at 61-39, recording no change from last week. Nothing on the stimulus package (Essential Research advises there will be a “truckload” of such data next week), but includes the usual leadership questions showing Rudd holding up and Turnbull going backwards.

3,047 Comments

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  1. 2901
    Allan Moyes
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:08 pm | Permalink

    I’m sorry but I can’t understand a word Barnaby is saying. He keeps tripping over his words but apparently he will be holding the Government to account for the path to perdition and oblivion that we are about to undertake.

  2. 2902
    Dario
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Conroy being an idiot as usual. Just threatened with expulsion.

    A threat was all it was

  3. 2903
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

    Barney the Banana:

    “Two bullet points to try and work out how we’re going to pay this money … ”

    Banana exports
    Circus performing

  4. 2904
    gerry fergusson
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:11 pm | Permalink

    Barnaby dribbled complete rubbish.
    Evans is up and sounds completely sane in comparison.
    Gosh the coalition are insipid

  5. 2905
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    Curious that Julie Bishop thinks there is no problem and hence no need for a stimulus package but Barnaby Joyce will be holding the government to account if it fails. How can it fail if there is no problem?

  6. 2906
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:12 pm | Permalink

    Hammers with free bags
    Fisculus packages

  7. 2907
    Bree
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    Looks like the Greens chances of winning a senate seat in Victoria have gone because most Victorians who lost their homes, blame the greenies for opposing back burning. Expect a huge dip in the Green vote in Victoria in 2010.

  8. 2908
    Allan Moyes
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    I hasten to add an LOL to my comment above. I think we’d be more on the path to oblivion if the package wasn’t adopted. Still it’s nice to know that he is so devoted to his cause. Ha ha.

  9. 2909
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:13 pm | Permalink

    When was the last time someone was thrown out of the Senate? Not in my memory.

  10. 2910
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    Expect a huge dip in the Green vote in Victoria in 2010.

    Expect a huge dp in the Liberal vote on the grounds they support pro-recssion and pro-unemployment economic policies.

    The Greens are now a more moderate economic party than the Liberals.

  11. 2911
    imacca
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    So, ALP mending fences with X and F in the senate. No fences to mend with the greens. Coalition seething in impotence. For gods sake just take the vote and do it!!

    Still i suppose that some of the senators feel the need to stick it into the libs for their arrogance while they had a senate majority.

  12. 2912
    centaur009
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:14 pm | Permalink

    yes bree will be right in that

  13. 2913
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Seems appropriate.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UKvpONl3No

  14. 2914
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Bree, you’ve got to grow up. That kind of political opportunism at this time is, frankly, disgraceful.

  15. 2915
    Bird of paradox
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Looks like the Greens chances of winning a senate seat in Victoria have gone because most Victorians who lost their homes, blame the greenies for opposing back burning. Expect a huge dip in the Green vote in Victoria in 2010.

    As shown by the opinion poll you’re about to post, I trust? :)

  16. 2916
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Adam

    The way some have spoken recently a breathalyser test would probably allow a few to be removed. Or a speech pathologist for Barnaby.

  17. 2917
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:15 pm | Permalink

    Bree waving the red rag in the faces of our friends from the Greens.

    At least irt’s a change from her mob waving the white flag of total surrender.

  18. 2918
    BK
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

    Now we can look forward to another rivetting contribution from Julie Bishop when the bills go back to the Lower House.

  19. 2919
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    When was the last time someone was thrown out of the Senate? Not in my memory.

    Doesn’t excuse Conroy’s stupidity though Adam.

    Why take such a risk at such a critical time.

  20. 2920
    imacca
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:19 pm | Permalink

    To give them their due, Bree’s mob didn’t surrender. They just took a stupid position and were comprehensively overrun. Failure of command led to a total local defeat, and a serious erosion of their strategic position. Idiots.

  21. 2921
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    Actually, you don’t have to grow up. It was silly of me to suggest this. When you start attending senior school (Ascham or Kincoppal or wherever), then you might consider reading a book or something …

  22. 2922
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:20 pm | Permalink

    I’m confused. The bills were moved without amendments.

    Does that mean the Xenophon amendments will be made in the House?

    Why weren’t they made in the Senate, then agreed to in the House?

  23. 2923
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:21 pm | Permalink

    Or will the Xenophon amendments be moved during the third reading?

    NewsRadio says Xenophon and Fielding and the Greens are all voting with the Government.

  24. 2924
    Dario
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:22 pm | Permalink

    Doesn’t excuse Conroy’s stupidity though Adam.

    Why take such a risk at such a critical time.

    Oh come on. Stop over playing it.

  25. 2925
    Dario
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    PASSED

  26. 2926
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    Bree, you need to be careful believing things you hear from that senile loon Wilson Tuckey. I’m not here to defend the Greens (as I think I’ve made clear), but it’s not true that they’ve opposed backburning. Nor is it true that there has been no backburning in Victoria – there has been 400,000ha burnt over the past three years. The current fire catastrophe had nothing to do with that. What it DOES seem to have something to do with is the refusal of councils to allow householders to clear trees from around their homes. That will obviously have to change.

  27. 2927
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    A few long lunches methinks!

  28. 2928
    Socrates
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

    This is not aimed at Bree, who I asume is impervious to facts that prove her world view false. However this right wing evasion-meme that the Victorian bushfires are due to greens and a lack of burning off has to be nipped in the bud.

    I posted late last night an entry from Barry Brook’s excellent Brave New Climate blog that looks at the recent heatwave from a meteorlogical point of view. Quite simply the recent heatwave is unprecendented in Australian recorded history:
    - for Adelaide the Jan / Feb 2009 heatwave was a 1 in 150,000 year event.
    - the odds of all this happening from natural forcings alone are about 1 in 10 billion
    - no other heatwave in Australian history has been as long, as intense or as widespread.

    See
    http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/02/10/heatwave-update-and-open-letter-to-the-pm/

    No doubt the Royal Commission will find that many things could have been done to reduce risks of bushfires and should eb done in the future, from limiting construction in high risk areas to checking on known arsonists as the SA Police sensibly did. But the fact remains that the weather conditions made this bushfire possible, and were so extreme that it was far worse than usual. We might have had fires without climate change, but they wouldn’t have been this bad. That fact needs to be faced.

  29. 2929
    Gusface
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:24 pm | Permalink

    vote
    30-28
    phew

  30. 2930
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    Profuse apologies to you Dario.

    Looks like my opinion that Conroy was being a prat is not allowed according to your esteemed opinion.

  31. 2931
    vera
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:25 pm | Permalink

    It goes back to HOR now to get ammendments approved
    I can’t wait, Joe hockey is the one who should be eating his hat after his gloating when the bill was voted down.

  32. 2932
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    Just out of interest, Bree. Do the Young Liberals do any Quality Assurance analysis of their troll campaigns? Because, based on your success here, you clearly need to move to another department lol.

  33. 2933
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    Looks like my opinion that Conroy was being a prat is not allowed according to your esteemed opinion.

    How do you rank the Senate Pratts? How about:
    1) Joyce
    2) Conroy
    3) Erica Betz
    4) Louise Pratt

  34. 2934
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:27 pm | Permalink

    p.s. That’s the last time I ever directly or indirectly address you! (Don’t tell your boss. lol)

  35. 2935
    Fulvio Sammut
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    Inner Westie, William has decreed the T word is verbotten.

  36. 2936
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    Whoops. It was a typo. I meant “trowel”. (As in “laying it on with a …”)

  37. 2937
    scorpio
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    I am sure there are higher quality targets for people to express their indignation out on than my humble self.

    Get over it.

  38. 2938
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    When was the last time someone was thrown out of the Senate? Not in my memory.

    I think the last time was Bob Brown expelled during a debate on the Timor Sea Treaty. He repeatedly accused the Howard government of economic and political blackmail against the East Timor government, and refused repeated requests by the President to withdraw the remarks.

  39. 2939
    Gusface
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:32 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn

    Joyce is a banjo strumming,moonshine guzzling,backwoods behemoth with the IQ of a irradiated amoeba.

    To call him a pratt is an insult to pratts everywhere

  40. 2940
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    That was in 2003

  41. 2941
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:33 pm | Permalink

    I thought we agreed that Conroy was a “factional dalek” (OZ’s expression).

  42. 2942
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:34 pm | Permalink

    To call him a pratt is an insult to pratts everywhere

    I don’t understand why some Nats think he is their saviour.

    The Senate is a much friendlier chamber than the House, which is more show biz, and less policy detail, does anyone think he would do any better in the House? What hits would he score in the House?

  43. 2943
    Dario
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    Profuse apologies to you Dario.

    No problems

    Looks like my opinion that Conroy was being a prat is not allowed according to your esteemed opinion.

    No, he was being a prat all right, but as for the likelihodd of him being thrown out… that’s just crap

  44. 2944
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    Show Biz is perfect for the Banana Clown!

  45. 2945
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:35 pm | Permalink

    I thought we agreed that Conroy was a “factional dalek” (OZ’s expression).

    It was originally Robert Ray’s expression:
    http://www.fabian.org.au/1077.asp

  46. 2946
    Gusface
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    What hits would he score in the House?

    he would add some competitiion to wilson for clown of the house.

  47. 2947
    Inner Westie
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:38 pm | Permalink

    Ah, Robert Ray …

    (That was a good read by the way.)

  48. 2948
    kleewyk
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    As a symbol of their sincerity of purpose, their purity of heart, shouldn’t each financial member of the LNP be required to pledge to return his/her $900 to the Government coffers immediately upon receipt? Or contribute to a 20 year trust fund for future generations set up with one or more of the major banks?

  49. 2949
    ShowsOn
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    he would add some competitiion to wilson for clown of the house.

    But he refuses to take a shadow portfolio, so that means he would just be a back bencher. That’s a less powerful position than Leader of the Nats in the Senate.

    He could be Shadow Minister without Portfolio. :D

  50. 2950
    BK
    Posted Friday, February 13, 2009 at 12:39 pm | Permalink

    If Barnaby were to go to the Lower House the only one feeling threatened would be Wilson Tuckey.

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