There’s so much going on in Queensland at the moment that a progressively updated post on developments seems in order, starting with the relevant entries from last night’s general post.
Monday, February 23
• Missed a spot from Steven Wardill’s Courier-Mail report on Chris Bombolas’s departure from Chatsworth: “Frontrunners to replace Mr Bombolas include his electorate officer Margaret Young and Police Minister Judy Spence’s policy adviser Simon Tutt.”
• Chris Pianta, who as of 2005 was Bundaberg secretary of the Australian Federated Union of Locomotive Employees, has been nominated as Labor’s candidate to run against Rob Messenger in Burnett.
• Déjà vu all over again: Pauline Hanson in shock comeback bid, and Greens threats to withhold preferences from Labor.
• Liberal National Party television ads viewable here.
• Tony Raggatt of the Townsville Bulletin on Mandy Johnstone’s preselection win in Townsville:
Even in Labor circles, there are questions. Not the least of which is why Mike Reynolds suddenly changed his mind after only days before going to the expense of preparing his advertising material, including video shoots with the other Townsville Labor candidates. Mr Reynolds told the Townsville Bulletin he made the decision during the past week due to health problems and rejected any suggestion he had been pushed …
Another question surrounding the preselection is why Labor’s factional bosses in Brisbane preselected a Left candidate from the Nelson-Carr group which is so openly hostile with Reynolds’ own Left group … There is a split between the Socialist Left factions of Mike Reynolds and Lindy Nelson-Carr (there is also a separate Labor Left faction). The Nelson-Carr faction would appear to have won the day by gaining the Townsville seat with its candidate Mandy Johnstone, apparently a cousin of Ms Nelson-Carr, while the Reynolds’ hopeful, Cathy O’Toole, his sister-in-law, will have to wait her turn.
Sunday, February 22
• The latest from the Courier-Mail:
ON YOUR marks, get set . . . The 2009 election race is almost under way. All that’s required to start the contest proper is for Anna Bligh, above, to take a quick drive up Paddington’s Fernberg Rd to visit Government House. That road trip will almost certainly happen some time in the next 10 days, with some predicting she’ll visit the Governor on Monday for a March 21 poll. Or will she wait a week and pull the trigger on a March 28 election?
They’ll have to be right eventually.
• Madonna King in the Courier-Mail sees things from Anna Bligh’s perspective:
Of course we’re going to lose seats. We’ve been in power for 11 years for goodness sake. But the boys (advisers chief-of-staff Mike Kaiser, Treasurer Andrew Fraser and state secretary Anthony Chisholm) all reckon we can win Gladstone, Mirani and Burdekin … The redistribution should deliver Mirani and Burdekin, and Gladstone should never have gone to an Independent in the first place. And don’t forget Bundaberg. The LNP might have sneaked across the line there, but this was Labor’s heartland for a century … Chris Bombolas just handed Chatsworth to the LNP … And there are other seats looking bad, too. Hervey Bay, where that former mayor Ted Sorensen is in with a good chance; Pumicestone; Aspley; not to mention Indooroopilly … Cleveland, Mansfield, Redlands – they’ll all be hard to hold and that’s not even considering those Gold Coast seats.
• Queensland’s very own Pitt the Younger, Curtis Pitt, is inevitably having to field questions about nepotism after succeeding his father as Labor candidate for Mulgrave. Curtis’s story seems to be that he worked locally as a cinema manager before moving to Brisbane in 2003 to take up a public service position, where he still remains.
• Elsewhere: Larvatus Prodeo, Woolly Days and Leon Bertrand.
Thursday, February 19
Fairfax confirms that Mandy Johnstone and Cameron Dick have won Labor preselection for Townsville and Greenslopes. ABC Radio reports the Mulgrave preselection has gone to Curtis Pitt, the son of outgoing member Warren. What’s more, a new front has opened with the surprise retirement of Chris Bombolas in Chatsworth, saying doctors have advised him to reduce stress due to diabetes. The ABC reports a successor will be chosen on Monday. A former Channel Nine sports reader, Bombolas won the seat in 2006 from Liberal powerbroker Michael Caltabiano in 2006, who in turn won it from Labor at a by-election a year before. Caltabiano’s personal vote as state member and earlier as a Brisbane City councillor would have meant the 0.8 per cent margin (reduced to 0.1 per cent after the redistribution) exaggerated Labor’s vulnerability, so long as Bombolas remained candidate – and assuming Caltabiano’s personal vote doesn’t transfer to his wife Andrea, who is the new Liberal National Party candidate. Now he’s gone, the seat can be ranked among those that will fall to the LNP barring a total disaster. Anna Bligh has intimated there might be more departures to come. Elsewhere: Cate Molloy to run again as an independent in Noosa (UPDATE: Make that “likely to run”).
Wednesday, February 18
• Queensland election speculation has stepped up yet another notch in recent days with three Labor members announcing their retirements (see below). The most excitable stories had it that the election would be called two days ago for March 28. The minimum election period is 26 days, so I gather an election for that date could be called as late as March 2. Darryl Rosin lays out the obstacles for various election dates beyond that in comments at Larvatus Prodeo, which are considerable if the government is of a mind to get in before the budget. The Courier-Mail reports outgoing Labor MP Mike Reynolds has told a radio interviewer the election “could be in late March”, while Tourism Minister Desley Boyle says she “suspects the election is not far away”. While you wait, enjoy Antony Green’s guide to the election, which went live this evening. My own effort remains a work in progress.
• Labor’s retiring Queensland MPs have made three seats available for new passengers on the Anna Bligh express ride to death or glory. Open for preselection are Townsville, where Mike Reynolds is calling it a day after 11 years; the outer Cairns seat of Mulgrave, home to Warren Pitt on-and-off-and-on since 1989; and the inner southern Brisbane seat of Greenslopes, vacated by another class of 1989 graduate in Gary Fenlon. Acting with remarkable haste, Labor set up preselection processes to replace Reynolds and Fenlon within three days of their retirement announcement on Sunday, with Pitt’s successor to be chosen two days after his announcement on Tuesday. In each case the decision will be made by the party’s administrative committee. Yesterday’s Townsville Bulletin reported that “insiders are tipping failed Townsville City Council contender Mandy Johnstone will get the party nod ahead of former mayor Tony Mooney” (who was defeated at the 1996 Mundingburra by-election which spelled the end for the Goss government). The ABC reports that Cameron Dick, brother of Brisbane City councillor Milton Dick, is likely to get the nod in Greenslopes. I gather we will find out in each case very shortly. The Cairns Post rang around trying to find someone who would admit to being interested in the Mulgrave preselection, apparently without success.
188 Comments
Any idea when a poll will be comming out for QLD?
William, your update reads as though Michael Caltabiano is running in Chatsworth rather than Andrea Caltabiano, his wife.
http://www.lnp.org.au/the-lnp-team/340.html
No it doesn’t steve. For the marginality to be “exaggerated” must mean that Michael Caltabiano isn’t running this time.
But William, you did get the margin wrong. It’s 0.1% on the new boundaries.
There’s a lot of discontent in Chatsworth. Chris Bombalos wasnt the most popular ALP candidate and some might think his retirement may have had a helping hand.
There will be an independent- DLP candidate in that seat that will surely decide the result. Who the new ALP candidate is, and how they communicate with the DLP might very well decide this one
I hope the ALP stays right away from the DLP. The DLP are a hopeless party who get a pathetic primary vote. And the people who do end up voting for the DLP will preference who they want. This isn’t the 1950s/1960s.
Oh dear, the Rudd stimilus won’t protect any jobs because the one-off money went to card debt repayment, pokies machine or went overseas to plasma tv. This is a very poor way of trying to stimulate the economy, Rudd really need to get a clue, rather than stumbling into everything. Ways of better spending the 22 billion wasted is to either hand out spending vouchers (Westfield for example), give tax cut, or the government spending on infrastructure, which will cost less and creates job (ie Rail staff)
The Sub prime crisis hit us in Sept 07, it seems like the government just woke up last Sept and find out something is wrong …. totally incompetant
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/money/story/0,26860,25078471-5015795,00.html
Oh dear, the Rudd stimilus won’t protect any jobs because the one-off money went to card debt repayment, pokies machine or went overseas to plasma tv. This is a very poor way of trying to stimulate the economy, Rudd really need to get a clue, rather than stumbling into everything. Ways of better spending the 22 billion wasted is to either hand out spending vouchers (Westfield for example), give tax cut, or the government spending on infrastructure, which will cost less and creates job (ie Rail staff)
The Sub prime crisis hit us in Sept 07, it seems like the government just woke up last Sept and find out something is wrong …. totally incompetant
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/money/story/0,26860,25078471-5015795,00.html
dovif #7
“The Sub prime crisis hit us in Sept 07, it seems like the government just woke up last Sept and find out something is wrong …. totally incompetant”
Remind me. Who was the govt back in Sept 07? Now, think hard…
Dovif, your second comment was much clearer than your first. If people pay off their credit cards it still gives them more money to spend from that point on anyway. Even if the TV plasmas are manufactured overseas there is still a whole chain of businesses in Australia that benefit from importers to transporters to retailers. Why the the Liberals anti business these days?
Dovif, you know there is a lagtime before infrastructure spending cuts in and the cash handouts are crucial to keeping the economy ticking over in the meantime.
Strange I thought this thread was for QLD. I guess Rudd has stepped in for Bligh.
Steconone, this is what the Liberal National Party desire for the economy of both Queensland and Australia.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/nyregion/20food.html?_r=1&hp
Anyone from QLD know any more about this?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/priest-fired-for-unholy-communion-20090219-8cmq.html
Any politicians talking about it?
Yes, heaps of politicians are speaking about it Oz, but they are all from the Vatican.
So no electoral implications?
This is getting very, very tiresome.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25079635-952,00.html
steve,
the problem is people are not spending, that is why the first stimulus did not prevent job loss/create job loss. People are worries, since Rudd and Swann keep saying this is the worst recession since the depression, people used the money to repay debt and are not spending, that is the problem. Rudd and Swann has created a atmosphere of worry and fear, and they are trying to tell people to spend in this atmosphere, and that is not going to work. They need to come out and say we have one of the best economies in the world, Japan/China/US will affect us, but not by that much. Instead they are constantly talking down the economy, and wondering why people are not spending
Re lag time with infrastructure, for example the North – West rail network in NSW had been promised since 1997, the project should be able to be commence straight the way. Port facilities should be able to be build or upgraded straight the way. This will ensure construction worker are employed, planners and managers are employed
Most project can be online within 3-6 months, the stimulus will hit our bank account and pay off my mortgage in April, so the lag is only 1-4 months. While our stimulus will go stright into paying off my mortgage (ie wasted)
Infrastructure will directly pay for jobs.
kukuru
Liberal want in at Sept 07, but what is your point? The mess was not an Australian problem. The job of preventing us going into a recession starts after the November election. It was the job of the government in 2008 to keep us out of this mess we are in. Instead of stopping people spending for most of 2008 and grinding out economy to a halt, when the growth rate was good.
We instead was increasing interest rate and scaring people into not spending (inflation genie is out of the bottle). This wracked the economy and caused job losses
Steve, although I don’t think either side of politics are great managers of society or the economy, I also don’t think any political party even the US Republican’s want that for their citizens.
dovif #15
The Rudd govt is only describing reality. What would you prefer; that the govt treat us like mushrooms – keep us in the dark and feed us on bullsh*t?
People watch the news. They now how bad this world economic crisis is. They also know that Australia is part of the world. So what’s the point of whistling Dixie and blindly hoping that everything will turn out OK?
The latest economic figures for Queensland will be released at midday.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/fraser-to-reveal-qlds-economic-damage/2009/02/19/1234632973783.html
The economic update for Queensland is here:
http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/tableOffice/documents/TabledPapers/2009/5209T5143.pdf
Now, would be an apt time for the National Party to tell us how their unfunded promises of almost $70 Billion fit into the scheme of things and which services would be axed if they are going to keep all their promises made to the electorate so far.
Breaking news heard on Radio Courier Mail:
Some LNP staffer has posted comments about Premier Bligh being u**y online.
What a party of juvenile idiots.
Yeah because of course one staffer making a comment online = a party of juvenile idiots.
You’re the only one looking like an idiot.
Ryan, get another bucket of popcorn out, it is all beginning to get entertaining.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/hightech-highjinx-as-website-hijacked/2009/02/20/1234633046342.html
Fine Cotton the last horse involved in a major Queensland scandal died today.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25084773-3102,00.html
Maybe I’m a pessimist, but I worry about Bligh going to an election so early. Look what happened to Carpenter. Moreover, the government is 11 years old and Bligh is trying to become the first elected female Premier. I know very little about the intricacies of QLD politics, but there is no Beattie there for Labor, there is the LNP, so I think this could turn into a close election.
Yes showson, especially with the floods and all.
hmmmmm
Looks like spence has tried to capitalise on it pretty solidly.
It must be National Party sabotage!!
Seems that all Labor MPs are being instructed to refer to the LNP as the National Party to try and alienate suburban voters. Whether it works, only time will tell.
I think we are in much need of a poll. Everything is so different from the last election that making any prediction is almost impossible.
Does anybody know if there is a relationship between past Brisbane Council results and past results at a state level in Brisbane? If there is a relationship it may help to predict the results in some seats.
I doubt it, isn’t the Brisbane Lord Mayer a Liberal?
ShowsOn, he was until the Liberals capitulated to the Nations last year. Now it’s just easier to call them all Nationals as they are the dominant people with the numbers to have all the say.
Is Campbell Newman calling himself Liberal, or LNP?
BoP, there is no Liberal Party here now. He is listed towards the bottom of this page.
http://www.lnp.org.au/the-lnp-team/340.html
OMG! How backwards are LNP voters, they are arguing against water fluoridation!
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?sid=68cb5b78585137ad2e79daa7db949f8c&gid=24853453365
They are like General Jack D. Ripper from Dr Strangelove:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/quotes
Oh, and I love the idea that public policy should be made by using Google:
Bruce McIvor on ABC radio recently claimed the new Party has 13500 members. This is well down on the numbers claiming to be merged from the old parties. A few people seem to have walked away.
WB,
Please correct me but I live in the Greenslopes electorate & the current Labor member is Gary Fenlon.
Has he been rolled by Cameron Dick? I’M CONFUSED.
Regards…
Aussieguru 01.
The Duke Returns…
In regards to comments #12 and #13, I think we can all agree on one thing about Father Kennedy. REMOVE HIM!
Oh, and greetings to all once again!
Guru;
Fenlon retired, and Cameron Dick was selected as the new ALP candidate for the Greenslopes. No-one was rolled, at least publicly. I figure this more or less hands the seat back to the Tories. Their candidate in Greenslopes is a well known local cop, and he seems good quality.
Ryan, what is it with the National Party and cops? I understand the Nationals candidate in Mulgrave is some sort of law and order fanatic who was a cop in England or so somesuch outpost in the past. Oh, hang on, the Fitzgerald Inquiry explained all that didn’t it?
One Nation had a cop from Caboolture as their leader when they spectacularly imploded after being voted into parliament too. In the same era, another One Nation cop became the Member for Ipswich West and he achieved little too.
There also was a curious Memorandum of Understanding the Police Union signed while campaigning actively against Labor in Mundingburra during a by election. Perhaps cops, conservative parties and the Queensland parliament are just not a good fit for democracy.
I saw an article where Springborg was complaining about that, he said that labor was deliberately shortening the name of the LNP to the Nationals to confuse people.
That is how it was reported, but I’m not sure whether the paper kept shortening Liberal National Party to LNP or whether Springborg actually kept saying LNP. If its the later its quite funny and very Joh like.
Castle it’s just an old marketing ploy. Kentucky Fried Chicken shortened their name to KFC because their product was about as attractive to customers as the National Party is to voters in Queensland.
The funny thing is that some people think that LNP stands for:Look No Policies.
I just got doorknocked by the Young Nationals but they didn’t explain much in out two second interview.
Foe all the hull-a-bahoo about Anna Bligh’s $1.5B forcast budget defecit, it is just a drop in the bucket compared with California and 46 other US States.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/california-screaming-state-almost-broke-20090220-8dme.html?page=-1
That is exactly why SerfChoices was an economic disaster in the making. Cutting people’s pay, making them easier to sack, reduces their ability and willingness to spend.
This would reduce business takings and business confidence, resulting in more SerfChoices paycuts and lay-offs. A vicious decreasing circle.
The Liberals must have foreseen this, leading me to agree with Steve at number 11: they desire an economy for Australia that looks like this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/nyregion/20food.html?_r=2&hp
WorkChoices wasn’t about cutting peoples pay, you idiot.
It was about freeing up the labour market so employers could hire and fire staff more easily. Basically, it was was intended to contribute to a lower unemployment rate.
We can thank these imbeciles in Canberra for reversing a macroeconomic reform and increasing the costs of labour. When unemployment rises to new highs within the next 12-18 months we have these guys to thank for it.
By the way, Cuppa, I presume you’re a unionist, make the most of these Luddite, economically illiterate laws while you can. When these juveniles get the boot they so justly deserve I’m looking forward to those evil IR laws being repackaged, reintroduced and union membership continuing to plummet.
Of course it is about decreasing paypackets. That is exactly what happened to employees under SerfChoices “agreements”, who, in the overwhelming percentage of cases, lost pay and conditions.
You might recall the Spotlight case, where workers “bargained away” pay and conditions in exchange for TWO CENTS PER HOUR. Spotlight said:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,19259698-421,00.html
Ever heard of the global financial crisis? Who’s the idiot?
I hope you’re proud that you support the party that wants to cut your kids’ pay and conditions. (Again, who’s the idiot?)
Cuppa, the major problem for both sides of politics is they don’t understand the economy, or at least the world economy. In the case of the Howard government they pushed our internal economy too hard durring the good times causing high inflation, high individual debt and an unsustainable standard of living. In the case of the Rudd government they are trying in the bad times to keep the unsustainable standard of living by putting the costs on the nations credit card. I wish we could find a government who could see further in the future than the next election.
My link at 49 did not work. The page no longer exists on News Ltd. Hmmm. Never mind, here’s a quote from Question Time, 1 June 2006, which also
http://www.openaustralia.org/debate/?id=2006-06-01.49.2
A good example of what I am talking about.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D6Q14HOBThM
steconone, there was another view expressed to a Federal Parliamentary Committee yesterday by the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/economics/rba2008/Hearings/Transcript1.pdf
steconone,
Thanks for the link and gives a fairly chilling overview of the US economy.
However, we in Australia have compulsory super and Medibank. The lack of both seems to be the drivers of the US problems. Consequently, our economic outlook is somewhat better. Coupled to that is our integration with the growth economies of Asia.
The Reserve Bank yesterday said there were clear signs that China had bottomed and that growth will start again in the second half of 09. If this is the case, then Rudd and co will be perceived as economic geniuses for avoiding recession here in Australia.
The economic stimulus will be seen as an important part of the strategy. And, economic growth will quickly enable us to pay back the monies borrowedd.
An interesting article on stim-pac 2
http://business.theage.com.au/business/stimulus-an-investment-in-the-future-20090215-8849.html?page=-1
Steve, what is said by the RBA is a good sign and also what I would have expected. The possible worry is that Australia and other western countries go down the same track as the US and start to spend much more than they bring in. The net imports into the US as of 07 was equal to 6% of their GDP. Australia even at the moment is well placed and not heading too deeply down the debt road. The extra money the government is spending is being compensated by individual savings. My main worry is the current rhetoric being used and the lack of economic understanding being displayed.
GG
I know icomplex deas aren’t easy to get across in short blogs, but surely you can’t be arguing our economy is better because we have Medicare?!!?
What a great slogan for the LNP at this election, they should run with it, they really really should.
Squggle,
The video highlghted a lack of a health care system and the expected cost of future health care for baby boomers as a major driver of the systemic problems in the US economy. I simply pointed out that we here in Australia have a universal health care system in place.
Mr Squiggle – if Greeny was arguing that, he’d be right.
The opportunity costs of Medicare are enormous – about 3% of GDP from memory if instead of Medicare, we followed the US path and achieved US outcomes. The US spends more of the proportion of their economy on healthcare to receive at best the same outcomes (at worse slightly poorer average health outcomes) than we do.
Possum, this is true. A major problem in the US is preventative medicine requires health cover. Rather than fix uninsured peoples health problems early the system makes them wait until medical intervention is necessary. This is much more costly. Also the PBS gives Australians’ a monopsony (buyer’s monoploy) which reduces the costs of pharmasuticals.
steconone, you mean like this?
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/5302.0Main%20Features1Sep%202008?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=5302.0&issue=Sep%202008&num=&view=
Poss and GG,
Thanks for clarifying. I can see economic benefits in having a well run health care system. After all, goods and services are being traded
Where I would struggle is with the notion that we developed a healthy ecomony in Australia because we have medicare.
At best, a well run economy allows for a sytem that gives access to health care for those who can’t afford it…..Not vice versa
Can I hear a chicken clucking ??…an egg!!!, an egg!!
Steve, yes like that. We are not too bad yet but it doesn’t take long if we head down the wrong track.
That would mainly be the result of twelve years of Liberal National waste of money on tax cuts to the wealthy by Howard and Costello, steconone.
Oh, and the selling off of assets which no doubt is what the Queensland Nationals will want to do to pay for their $70 Billion in unfunded election promises.
Steve, it was not so much the tax cuts, most tax cuts go to productivity which is good. It was more the drastic increase in unproductive spending in their final years to win votes and the federal reserve moving too slowly with interest rates early on.
Where can I find the figures for the LNP election promises? I have heard $70 billion a couple of times and would be interested in what they are promising and how much it will cost and also what they intend on cutting and by how much.
The National Party financial commitments were about $64.5 Billion in September last year, it will be interesting to see what they are by the time the election is over!
http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/tableOffice/documents/TabledPapers/2008/5208T4248.pdf
Cuppa, just to clarify – you think all macroeconomic policy is completely irrelevant in the context of an economic downturn?
Do you also think it should be made very difficult for me, as a business owner, to sack people? What about paying higher wages than I can afford?
I’m just trying to gauge whether your an economic illiterate, a fool or both.
Sounds like a theory without any evidence to me, steconone. Check out the cart of what the Reserve Bank of Australia was dealing with at the time. Although popular in some quarters, that theory is nonsense.
http://www.rba.gov.au/ChartPack/inflation_wage_measures.pdf
Steve #70, it is common practise and standard monetary policy to base interest rates on inflation. The problem with this, which has only really been identified as a result of the current global slowdown, is that other important factors get ignored. This includes things like bubbles, capital inflation, debt levels, balance of trade etc.
Steve #68, do you have any documents which are independant. I have only looked at the first 3 costings and all have issues. The UFU starts from 07, the ambo crisis has the governments solution costed and the amalgamation compensation is costed a full compensation rather than partial.
You’ll have to wait until there is an election campaign, costing of election promises is not a National Party strongpoint.
It does not matter when Anna Bligh calls the election – she will win, comfortably.
Mr Springborg is unelectable – he know it as well. The only reason he came out of hibernation was to press his long held belief that the National Party should merge with the Liberal Party. He has achieved this.
Now he is reaping the rewards of his ill thought out merger.
Having the National Party and Liberal Party in Coalition meant each party could “play” to its own base, now they cannot. If they appease regional and rural areas they lose the much needed “city votes” and vice-versa. Dumb stuff.
The LNP are headed for disaster and the result will have Federal ramifications for the National Party.
A bit like the National Party idea of policy really, cut and paste from the propaganda column to the policy page.
Rua the sad thing is that you are right but Bligh doesnt deserve another term and neither does QLD Labor…
It has always been easy for business people like you to sack people – its just that a few were too dumb to follow the rules.
Ruawake, I would disagree to the extent that most governments lose election rather than oppositions winning elections. I believe if the government wins/loses this election it will be as a direct result of what they do, not the LNP.
Glen
Have you seen the road infrastructure that has been built on the Sunshine Coast in the past 3 years?
There must have been $500 million or more spent, it is not quite finished yet. That is one reason I think the March election speculation is crud.
The sad thing is the LNP have been an abysmal opposition – it is they who do not deserve to be elected.
I think Mr Springborg will adopt a low key approach to the election and let Tim Nicholls and Mark McArdle do most of the running. Then blame them when he loses.
steconone
What has the current Qld Govt done to make people kick them out?
Once the Nationals Springborg, McArdle team are unleashed on the unsuspecting Queensland public, I’d expect the public to demand that Flegg be given another chance. The original is always better than imitations.
Steve
You are forgetting the “The Borg” only works Monday-Friday or less. He could not comment on the Children’s Emergency Centre stuff yesterday becuase he “was in his electorate” wtf surely he has a telephone?
I was not saying the government has/hasn’t done anything to make people kick them out. All I was saying was, it will not be the LNP who decide the result but rather the government.
Forgot to add.
Tim Nicholls and Mark McArdle are likely to lose their seats at the election.
That’s a big call Rua!
Ruawake, if The Borg hides in the electorate for whole campaign, it will be boring because McArdle and Nicholls have all the charisma of melting ice. At least with Flegg, there was laughter, good natured banter and entertainment for the whole campaign.
Not really Poss, McArdle is toast he will not hold Caloundra. It will revert to Labor, he only won because Cummins was a dill.
The redistribution has crueled his chances.
Tim Nicholls snuck in ahead of Liddy Clark, but remember the “crises” at the last election.
Yep toast-ville for both of them.
I met the candidate for Caloundra, she’s the type who just might outfox McArdle. A very smart woman.
Steve
Jody Tunnicliffe is a very smart cookie.
That’s strange, I thought that Glen (# 75) had spent the last six months or more, arguing for one conservative party.
All he ended up with was one big National Party.
I’m willing to put my stones on the line regarding the Sunshine Coast.
Caloundra – Jody Tunnicliffe ALP
Kawana – Jenny Goodwin ALP
Buderim – Steve Dickson LNP
Marochydore – Fiona Simpson LNP
Noosa – Brian Stockwell ALP
That makes 3 extra seats the LNP have to find from somewhere else.
Steve i back it at a national level more than just at a State level….
Peter Wellington will hold Nicklin as usual.
Glen, after this state election it might be very difficult to get it on the agenda anywhere.
Glen’s dream is for the Nationals to fold up their tent and pass on all their assets and voters to the Libs, not for the Nats to buy out the Libs a la LNP Qld style.
Yep.
As much as I would like any LNP candidate to lose a seat, I can’t see it happening. The Government has been in power for too long anyway, and will be bucketed by ‘journalists’ in the Courier Mail and by talk back radio hosts, (including on 6-12) and special interest groups from now to election day, which is of course, is almost certain to be announced yesterday if not before.
The LNP will also have more funds than they had previously available, to push their message, whatever that is.
Their big bonus however is that they will not have the election campaign problems that they had last time- if you look back over William’s threads from the last election you will see that they had an almost constant stream of stuff ups.
Combine this with a fairly large number of ALP members retiring and the redistribution reducing the value of sitting MPs, and the ALP should lose about a dozen or so seats. You can start the count with Indooroopilly.
Fargo61
Last election – well about 6 months before Peter Beatie said OK guys tell us now if you are not going to stand – about a dozen did the same thing and “retired”. Nothing new thats how the Qld ALP does stuff.
Indooroopilly will be retained by Labor – so can you tell me the other 11 seats they will lose?
The LNP will have even bigger “stuff ups” this election because local members will be saying stuff that is not LNP policy.
Here is a ‘good’ a reason as any to vote out the ALP. They could still fulfil this dire warning, taken from an article published in The Argus (Melbourne, Vic.) Friday 11 November 1921(located by National Archives Beta search)-
“If the Legislative Council can be abolished by a vote of Parliament, leaving all the legislative power in the hands of the remaining Chamber, what is there to prevent that Chamber from abolishing itself? There would then be no Parliament, and consequently no Constitution, or certainly not a Constitution under which Queensland has been governed since separation from New South Wales.”
Other ‘reasons’ advanced at the time for retaining the Legislative Council were that the Government of Mr Theodore would take peoples homes, close their bank accounts, and, my favourite- abolish wages.
How will any of them know just what the National Party policy is on anything? Will they have to memorise all the press released that have been copied from the LNP website on to Springborg.com under the heading of Policy?
Fargo
Nice quip from 88 years ago – but tell me where will the ALP lose 11 seats as you intimated earlier?
Rua,
fargo seems to be enthralled and cowed by the power of the media.
The reality is the voters choose on their issues. Evidence the last NSW election.
The power of the media is so great that they haven’t been able to rustle up a Galaxy, AC Nielson or Newspoll since Decembe,r despite months of breathless writing about an imminent election on a daily basis. Bet if the Nationals were ahead, we’d have had fortnightly polls.
Hi Ruiawake-
I think that the LNP candidates will be trained to say nothing, just like the members of historical ‘Know Nothing’ party in the USA. They will simply have lots of ‘concerns’ that they will express, and make meaningless ‘motherhood and apple pie’ statements.
That is what Mr Springborg has pretty much done himself the past 12 months. If you look at the LNP press releases (even some of the ones costed as provided in that link from Steve, above) you can see that lots of them are not actually promises at all, just concerns, and statements along the line of “we will have a look at it when we are in Government”. Basically the same strategy adopted by John Howard in 1996.
As for seats- counting the ALP as currently having 62 seats, as per notional margins from redistribution reported by Antony Green, (but counting them as still having Indooroopilly), I would regard all of the all seats requiring a swing of less than 4% as being at significant risk- Indooroopilly, Chatsworth, Clayfield, Whitsunday, Burdekin, Mirani, Cleveland, Hervey Bay, Mudgeeraba, Aspley, Gaven.
Gladstone, Nicklin and Maryborough should return independents, Nanango may be a toss up, but I think the LNP would be favoured.
That would make ALP 51, LNP 35, Ind 3. That really should be the worst that the LNP do, despite themselves.
Out of interest, why do you think the ALP will win seats, what sort of media coverage are you expecting, and do you want to predict ALP, Green, LNP votes in Indooroopilly? Based on the poll in the previous thread, the LNP would win that seat.
Fargo a win by the Nationals in Nanango would literally take us back to the Bjelke Petersen era. Joh’s son John is the candidate, I believe.
The ALP could win Bundaberg back. They have a good candidate, he is the owner of the local Dymock Bookstore
Fargo I would expect the independent sitting member, Dolly Pratt to retain Nanango.
Muskiemp
The ALP lost Bundaberg last election because of the Patel “crisis”. The issue is now irrelvant because Patel is before the courts.
The huge issue that many people ignore is that 1,000 people a week are moving to SE Qld (hence the extra Qld seat at the next Federal election).
These guys are not Qld National Party supporters, and as I have said ad-nauseum the Labor vote is slowly increasing up the Bruce Hwy to Bundaberg.
The ALP will not win back Bundaberg, media coverage of a certain court case will put pay to that.
Steve- Yes we could yet have a Bjelke Petersen back in the parliament- and by coincidence I saw Lady Flo on a TV ad tonight, promoting a retirement village. It will certainly be an interesting contest, a narrow margin either way.
Burdekin looks good for Labor with the mining town of Bowen being added in the redistribution. It will be very difficult for the Nationals to take that one I would imagine.
On the subject of candidates, I had a look on the websites of both the Greens and the SEQ4DSP, for a list of endorsed candidates, just a few nights ago, but without success. Can anyone help?
And also, can anyone suggest how I can find out now what preference recommendations either the Greens (or Family First) made on a seat-by-seat basis last election? I have made up a spreadsheet of the Greens votes last time, their exhaustion rate, and their preference flow, but it would be good to have a record as well of what recommendation they made for each seat that they contested.
Fargo, how do you see the SEQ4DSP going on the Gold Coast? That would be where their support would be strongest and it might make it difficult for Gold Coast Nationals to get any real traction against a daylightsaving Party.
Steve- The seat of Burdekin now goes up past Bowen, as far as, and maybe just past Wulguru in the south-east of Townsville. Anton Greens assessment is… “On paper a Labor seat, but it seems highly likely that Rosemary Menkens should be able to win this seat back for the Liberal National Party.” http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/burd.htm
Should be another one to watch closely.
Which policy is the National Party going to adopt now? The fade your curtains and the cows will not know when to come home or the pro business different time zones for different parts of Queensland line?
That court case re Bundaberg, the truth and the fact that it is being dealt with should help the ALP candidate and the sitting Nats member is a dodo.
Fargo
To the best of my recollection Anthony said Mal Brough should win Longman, I stated he CANNOT win Longman.
The ALP will be elected with a similar number of seats as they now hold.
And he is an ex cop.
Muskiemp, I reckon Labor could have won Bundaberg last time and I wouldn’t rule that one out until the last vote has been counted.
That’s the Nats member in B’Berg- is a Dodo
Steve,
Their official policy is that they only have a policy on daylight saving- and will have no other policies, so I can’t see them getting many votes- and none if they dont actually have candidates. They are supposed to have 500 members, but how many willing to stand, and with what funding?
To the extent that they do get votes, I expect that that would on balance disadvantage the LNP, as it is mainly urban Liberal voters who favour that silly imposition, and so I expect that they will suffer from exhausted votes, but the numbers may not be significant.
How do you think that the DSP4SEQ will go?
Also, you posted a while ago that you expected to see independent Liberals running, do you have any info on that? I have seen nothing else about it.
Fargo,
We will see what independents run the day nominations close. It would have to be significantly up on previous elections, I’d say and I would expect a few to win too.
Much will depend to what extent the Tories implode during the actual campaign. I’m sure they will do us proud in the time-honoured tradition.
The member for the neighbouring electorate of Burnett, a Rob Messenger did most of the campainging in condemming the Beatty Government on what went on at Bundaberg, so helping to win both electorates for the Nats. Even though the ALP had no chance to win Burnett.
http://www.news-mail.com.au/story/2009/02/05/Bundaberg-Hospital-claims-made/
Here Messenger is again misrepresinting the truth as he has been for the last 5 years.
Queensland Opposition MP Rob Messenger has apologised for tabling documents in Parliament that identified whistleblowers who raised concerns about patient care at the Bundaberg hospital.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/13/2490529.htm
It used to be that the Government has spent nowhere near enough on infrastructure that was Springborg’s main source of crocodile tears. Now it is:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/21/2497755.htm
There is always a populist flip side of the coin for every government action or policy.
This shows the mess the LNP have Messenger is Shadow Minister for Tourism and Small Business.
But no he has to butt into health issues instead of passing them to Mark McArdle who I think is the Health guy for the LNP? Er yes he is, his claim to fame is having 2 childrens hospitals on the Nth and Sth side of Brisbane while claiming his parties policy is one centre of excellence – but at a different hospital to the new purpose built one already under consturction.
Why would anyone vote for them????
The Greens warn Labor not to expect preferences.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/beatties-vote-1-system-may-haunt-labor-greens/2009/02/21/1234633127081.html
Bob Brown can never “guarantee” Green’s preferences.
Preferences are decided by local groups, but the State Council gives recommendations.
Last election Greens preferences were directed to Labor in 22 seats.
Any figures concerning how much difference a decision to direct or not direct Greens preferences to Labor makes to the proportion of Greens prefs that actually go to Labor in Queensland state elections, or any others conducted using optional preferential?
These sorts of preference threats are often seen but rarely have the potential to swing more than the odd seat, because most Greens voters tend to ignore them. I was wondering if it’s like that in Queensland to, or if the threat to recommend “Just Vote 1″ is more serious because it encourages the voter to conserve effort.
It will be interesting to see how many candidates the DLP field, and the effect it will have on the election.
Unlike in previous years, the bulk of the DLP preferences will go to the ALP.
It is a different party to before, when their preferences usually went to the conseravite side.
I thought you were asking for evidence of whether this is the case or not?
What you’d need to do is compare the leaves of exhaustion betweens seats where The Greens directed preferences and where they didn’t. I’m having difficulty finding exactly which seats they directed preferences.
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=179&page=0
Kevin, never looked that closely at them. Appendix table three probably has some of the figures. Page 10 tells us the main seats where preferences were directed to Labor.
Labor at the last published Newspoll in Dec 2008 was on 45% primary vote. If this vote is holding up or increased then Green preferences diminish in importance.
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rb/2006-07/07rb03.pdf
To only give 1 vote is a waste of a vote, and destroys voting power of that voter.
It also destroys the credabitity of the party that supports such a action.
A party that has tightly controlled preferences can have an impact far in excess of the number of votes it gets.
The DLP previously was able to tightly control its preferences and decided the outcome of a decisive number of seats.
A party that does not direct preferences, or is not consistent with who it gives it preferences to is that much less powerfull.
In the seats the DLP stand in they will be consistent in their preferences, and will gain crediability with voters and parties for future elections.
Greens preferences will not decide the election so much as Greens vote exhaustion will decide the election. The ALP’s abysmal performance in health, infrastructure and education may convince enough people not to allocate preferences to them. While the LNP’s stigma of the National Party and lack of Shadow Ministerial talent may make them as equally unattractive. In this situation we may get a large amount of Greens preferences exhausting, which can only advantage the LNP because the lion’s share of protest votes against the government rather than the oppostion. On election night we may see a few seats fall due to this.
The Greens are a double edged sword for Labor.
Also, ruawake’s prediction of LNP losses on the Sunshine Coast is crazy talk. I would be incredibly surprised if the Tories lose ANY of their seats in the coming election let alone some of their safest.
Keep the popcorn handy while you watch the Caloundra results, Ryan. You’re going to be entertained.
ruawake: Agree with you about Caloundra, but don’t count out Kawana especially with the redistribution, the seat just about covers all the booths that favoured during the Cummins era and the ALP are running a solid local candidate . I think the ALP are more likely to win Kawana than Caloundra, although its possible that they could pick up both
that favoured the ALP during the Cummins era*
sunnycoaster, ruawake did list Kawana as a Labor gain. The big difference with Caloundra this time is the candidate was selected a while ago whereas last election it was a very late choice. Added to this is the redistribution that includes the Australia Zoo area in Caloundra this time, usually a Labor voting area.
Yes, I did see that ruawake tipped an ALP win, I was speaking more generally, apologies for my lack of clarity. I was part of the pre selection process for both candidates, and I do agree the party is better placed because of it.
sunnycoaster, any thoughts on Pumicestone? Apart from the National Party wanting to build a mammoth desal plant there to get less water for more cost, I have heard very little about it.
I honestly don’t think much will change with Pumicestone in terms of margin. The fact that you’ve heard little indicates that the LNP have not got any traction in the electorate. Despite no change in the margin, the redistribution was kind to the ALP. I also agree with Antony’s assessment that the LNP need to win the seat to obtain government, an unlikely task
The thinking in that Madonna King article seems to be that Labor’s vote will hold up (and even improve) in the country marginals, but they’ll incur big swings against them in the south east.
What’s the basis for this thinking?
(The answer certainly isn’t incumbency, which works against Labor in those central Qld seats.)
Re #132, my experience is that in other single-member elections, where distributing preferences is generally compulsory (eg House of Reps), the Greens can decline to preference Labor and it makes little difference. For example, comparing the Tasmanian lower house seats in 2004 to 2007, in the first case Labor preferenced the Greens in Tasmanian seats; in the second case they didn’t, and Labor’s share of Green preferences only went down a handful of %. That was what I had in mind with my general comment that Greens voters tend to ignore how to vote cards. But what I was wondering is whether the threat to not direct is much more effective in optional preferential elections. It sounds like it may well be.
Steve, I have stocked up on popcorn and fluoridated water. All I need are some of Anna’s corn beef fritters and I’ll be set. http://www.michelbonnet.com/auscuisine/recipes/Corn_beef_fritter.htm
McArdle would be a huge scalp, you would need some sort of celebrity candidate to take it in a reset election. Given that the ALP are fresh out of Chris Bombolas I don’t think that will happen. Relax though, Curtis Pitt and Cameron Dick may still get up, once they find the seats they are running for.
I wonder if today the Courier Mail will today be printing pull-out a full colour lift-out map of the likely route Anna might take to Government House? It would make my day.
Ryan, it will be the National Party former senator’s Pumpkin scones and milk from a daylightsaving free cow for me as I watch the circus.
http://www.abc.net.au/queensland/stories/s1143809.htm
Ryan,I bought myself a new akubra hat, tweed jacket, moleskin trousers and RM Williams boots and ordered in a bale of hay just so I can look inconspicuous if I ever need to go into National Party heartland of the Brisbane CBD within the next three years.
Steve at #146. Although McArdle is well liked in the heart of Caloundra city, being the former leader of the Liberal Party doesn’t mean much beyond that part of the electorate. My gut feeling is that is that it will be a tight result either way. The result will probably be a Liberal retain, I think it may well be ‘too close to call’ at the end of the night.
sunnycoaster, another minus for McArdle is he will be expected to tour the state in a show of farce with Springborg, so don’t expect him to be in Caloundra too often during the campaign.
I totally agree.
What is Noosa looking like? Ruawake had that one on his list too?
I actually disagree with ruawake on Noosa, particularly now that Cate Molloy is running again, who has strong personal support in the area. I believe that she will poll anywhere between 5 and 10% and its likely she will direct preferences away from the ALP. making it very difficult for the ALP to make headway into the 7.4% margin. The composition of the electorate indicates it favours the LNP too. The victories by Molloy in 01 and 04 can largely put down to her personal appeal. If the ALP nab Noosa, the LNP are in real trouble.
WTF??
Senator Brown said the Greens would uphold a traditional, blanket preference deal with Labor, should Ms Bligh trash plans for Traveston Dam.
So it’s of no prefrences politicking consequence the facts that (a) it’s the LNP with policy that’s committed to No-Damn-Dam, (that’s what Shadow environ/climate minister Gibson’s ticket in was,) and , more significantly vis a vis the big picture, (b) it’s the pineapples what has the ‘44c/kwhr paid for all solar power generated’ policy, as proto-green a policy as ever was?
It couldn’t be a desparate and futile attempt to curry favor with the ALP for preferences to shore up Ronan’s Indooripilly chances could it? Like putting Anne Warner’s daughter, as in she who bequethed Anna her South Brisbane seat, doesn’t reek of payback, in more ways than one? Like Labor won’t pour resources into getting that dynastic thing happening? Ronan would have to be thinking about that #1 Greens Senate card spot wouldn’t he?
Spot the consistency, prizes given for miracles performed.
sunnycoaster
Cate Malloy has a very small personal following – so small she could not go close to winning a seat on the SCRC. Ms Malloy has lost a fair bit of credibility in the past few years. She will be lucky to outpoll FF.
Glen Elmes will get a primary vote of about 36%, Brian Stockwell will get about 42%
I doubt Ms Molloy will run – her public statement is:
“Ms Molloy said would test the water for support by way of print newspaper ads, with plans to run if she could gather a strong team. “
Looks like Pauline Hanson is planning on making a comeback in the Queensland election.
I’d say she will only be the first in a long list of conservative independents ready to tackle the National Party at its weakest point.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25090162-3102,00.html
That was always the risk of the National takeover of the Liberal Party. They have created a vacuum on the right of Queensland politics which may well substitute conservative independents to replace the ill prepared, and lazy National Party. It should have policy coming out of its ears by now but has chosen to curl up in a small ball instead.
If Ms Hanson stood for election in Gympie I think she has a strong chance of winning. But would she want to move to this electorate?
That will be interesting, what will the Nats do about preferences. Maybe she should slightly change her party name to One National Party to rub it in.
Still well remember the Nats running that slogan a couple of elections ago. Vote One National Party.
Castle if the Nationals Preference her, they get wiped out in Brisbane. She could easily win Glasshouse or Gympie. Somehow, I think Gympie would be more her style as it was previously held by One Nation.
What if the local Nats candidate went rogue, against party wishes, and preferenced her, saying he didn’t want the commie labor reds (who are selling the state off to the chinese), to get in on his preferences.
The Nats in Brissie could wring their hands and say he is going against party wishes.
ruawake, Hanson would move anywhere to gain political influence.
I had a silly thought there for about half a minute that Hanson could run in the upper house, like Nick Xenophon. If Queensland had one, she would’ve probably never gone away, and One Nation would’ve got balance of power in that house in 1998… imagine that, eh?
Castle in that case the Nationals would get wiped out in Brisbane for the usual public displays of disunity during an election campaign. This is the very thing all their propaganda told us they would avoid through the Liberal takeover.
ruawake at #155: Point taken regarding Molloy. However, I think Elmes will be around 40%, even if he does lose, although I still can’t see it happening.
But Hanson was the original rogue lib candidate, who got elected.
If she runs it will get very interesting, conservative media commentators and some coalition members regularly refer to Rudd as our Chinese speaking PM.
Would expect Hanson to play this up with chinese companies making bids for mining cos in Qld.
If Elmes gets 40% of the vote in Noosa, I will run down Hastings Street naked with a daffodil up my bum.
Now that would be interesting to see.
Not really, but I may get invited to dine at a number of fine establishments.
Castle, the problem is that Gympie has one of the worst employment opportunities in the state. The current member for Gympie physically ran out of parliament during question time last year according to Hansard.
They were ribbing him about what he has done for helping employment prospects in his electorate at the time. Astounding stuff but it actually happened, I can dig around and find it in Hansard some time if you like. I can never remember a single step Hanson has ever taken to increase employment prospects anywhere really but maybe she will please explain all that to us in the campaign.
Steve
I don’t know if Hanson would get in, but her flag wrapping campaigns attract quite a few people.
If she does run and starts to get backing it will leave the Nats in a quandry. If people only vote One, one nation or vote One, one liberal National Party, then votes may be exhausted and labor get in where not expected?
I hope she runs, and look forward to the Nats tying themselves in knots on what to do.
Castle, I do believe that the Labor candidate for Gympie is a character too. He’d serve it up to them if there was any inkling of division between the tories. He’s notorious for getting stuck into the tories by Letter to the Editor in the Gympie Times especially over the Traveston Crossing dam.
Gympie has been represented by duds ever since Max Hodges got forced out as police Minister by Bjelke Petersen. It revolved around a ‘baton over the head’ incident in a student march from Qld Uni to the city with Commissioner Whitrod and Police Minister Hodges wanting an inquiry and Joh quashing it.
The story of the last member for Gympie with any talent at all is better explained here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Joh
How about that September election steve?
Anna Bligh calls election for March 21
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25093194-952,00.html
Bligh on way to Government House.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
That’s what you wanted, that’s what you get, Ryan.
Au contraire, steve. I would prefer fixed terms, and governments that go full term, rather than pull sneaky elections like this. In a perfect Queensland…
It’s on for March 21
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25093194-952,00.html
Ah you’re all too quick!
To the banana-benders
What’s this about? Is it a repeat of the WA hospital and SA hospital sagas, coz labor did very poorly out of both of them?
my post from 29 Jan
Will cheerfully accept apologies from Steve & ruawake.
Whatever happened to ‘going the full term’. Whoops!
The September election strategy would have been the smartest one for Bligh, she could have bled the tories dry and done it in her own time. This early election holds bad portents for Labor, they will not escape unbloodied.
Points to steve and ruawake for trying though; now let’s see if their predictions about the LNP losing Noosa are just as vacuous…
So Ryan, you are predicting the LNP will win?
New thread.
Just seen Ackerman on Skynews talking about “The Borg”. Was asked by interviewer if Borg will make a good premier. Ackers, sideswiped the question and said he has lots of experience. This will be the 3rd time Springborg will have run and is a thick as two planks. In this case “The Borg” acts exactly like he sounds.