Not exactly hot off the presses with this one, but Friday’s poll from Roy Morgan (who seem to have returned to their weekly polling habits of old) has Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5 compared with 60-40 the previous week. The primary vote movements are bigger than you would expect from this: Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 49 per cent, and the Coalition is up 1 per cent to 36.5 per cent. The slack is taken up by “independent/others”, up from 3.5 per cent to 6 per cent. Perhaps South Australians are telling survey takers they’ll vote for Nick Xenophon. Elsewhere:
• Speculation continues to mount that former WA Health Minister and Attorney-General Jim McGinty (left) will shortly be calling it a day, initiating a by-election in Fremantle to coincide with the state’s May 16 daylight saving referendum. On ABC television news, Peter Kennedy reported that rumoured preselection contender Peter Tagliaferri (right) met with McGinty and ALP state secretary Simon Mead to “discuss the possible vacancy”. However, Alan Carpenter is offering point-blank denials to speculation he might also vacate his seat of Willagee, which puts the prospect of a dangerous preselection stoush between Tagliaferri and LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly back on the agenda. Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports:
Alan Carpenter says he will remain in state parliament till the next election. He ruled out the possibility of a by-election for his safe Labor seat of Willagee … He shrugged off speculation that he and Fremantle MP Jim McGinty were contemplating mid-term retirement to make way for new Labor blood, “you might not believe me, but often I’m the last person to hear about these things”. It seems Jandakot Liberal MP Joe Francis could be more tuned in to Labor machinations than the former premier, becoming the third person to tell the Herald that LHMWU secretary Dave Kelly was being groomed to take over a Labor seat.
• What’s more, Robert Taylor of The West Australian has mused on the possibility of star Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan moving to federal politics by taking on Don Randall in Canning, where redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 5.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
• Staying in WA, the Liberal Party is having an interesting time dealing with jockeying ahead of preselection for the safe southern suburbs seat of Tangney. Sitting member Dennis Jensen (left) lost the preselection vote ahead of the last election to Matt Brown, former chief-of-staff to Defence Minister Robert Hill, but the result was overturned by prime ministerial fiat. As Robert Taylor puts it, “this time there’s no John Howard and Dr Jensen looks decidedly shaky”. Against this backdrop, local Liberal branches have been inundated with membership applications from “Muslim men”, who are believed – certainly by the Brown camp – to be enthusiasts for the incumbent. A compromise reached at the state executive saw admission granted to half the applicants, who can apparently thank Julie Bishop for arguing that “many of her east coast colleagues with big Muslim populations in their electorates were nervous about the outcome”. Taylor says a Brown supporter told him “the new members were associated with ‘strident anti-Israel statements’ from the Australian National Imams Council”.
• With independent MP Rory McEwen to call it a day, the Liberals would be pencilling in his seat of Mount Gambier as a soft target at next year’s state election. However, the Border Watch reports Liberal candidate Steve Perryman, the mayor of Mount Gambier, might face an independent challenge from Don Pegler, the mayor of Grant District Council, who has perhaps been inspired by Geoff Brock’s boilover in Frome. Grant covers the electorate’s extensive rural areas outside of the City of Mount Gambier, although the latter accounts for three times as many voters.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews offers a colourful and detailed account of the gruelling Liberal preselection jockeying in Kooyong.
• Landeryou also notes conflicting reports on the prospect of a Right-backed preselection challenge by Noel McCoy against Phillip Ruddock in Berowra.
• Andrew Leigh and Mark McLeish have published a paper at Australian Policy Online which asks a most timely question: Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Using data from 191 state elections, they find a positive correlation between low unemployment and success for the incumbent, “with each additional percentage point of unemployment (or each percentage point increase over the cycle) reducing the incumbent’s re-election probability by 3-5 percentage points”. Furthermore, “what matters most is not the performance of the state economy relative to the national economy, but the state economy itself”. That being so, it seems voters “systematically commit attribution errors – giving state leaders too much blame when their economy is in recession, and too much credit when it is booming”.
• The Parliamentary Library has published a note on the redistribution of WA’s federal electorates.
632 Comments
The Government would not have gone backwards in the polls and you would expect given the recent dramas the LNP would have taken a hit. So either the last poll was over stated or this one is just MOE. Anyway the indication is that Labor continues its substantial lead over the LNP.
So they have gone with celebrity over competence hoping that Joe will make a better appearance. So that is just another useless stop gap gimmick over substance. Eventually they will have to go with someone with the right sort of competence for Shadow Treasury.
Message to Joe and Co. I don’t the people want to hear lots of scare mongering in these times or negative attacks on the Govt’s economic moves which some may be starting to use as their security/hope blanket.
AND think of this Turnbull and Joe – if you do make people scared and confused who do you think they will run to? A stable disciplined outfit, not one having all sorts of troubles and divided amongst themselves. So perversely the Opposition’s attacks on the Govt’s economic strategies, if they do get people’s attention might actually make them flee to the Govt.
As I said elsewhere. The Opposition should have been playing low keyed me too for the past 12 months to gain some credibility whilst up against a very popular new Leader.
Turnbull probably told Morgan to adjust this poll to make him look better.
“After the damage that you have done, the best you can now do to help our chances is to leave.”
So Hewy, you think your friend Malcolm will lead the Coalition to victory in 2010. Hah! Keep on dreaming in la la land mate. You have made a total fool of yourself with this rant Hewy!
That’s a bit out of the blue – is that based on truth, or just a thought bubble from Taylor? Bearing in mind Labor are two friendly by-elections away from forming government, I can’t see it happening, but it is interesting. And, hey, maybe we oughta share her with the east.
I can’t see Alannah unseating a popular federal Liberal. Alannah has too much baggage from Carps. Labor is doomed in WA for a decade at least. It needs to clean out all the dead wood from the state and federal branches (ie, McGinty, Carps). No matter what Labor does, they will not defeat the popular Barnett for at least two terms. WA Labor still has the stench of Brian Burke lurking in the air around Perth.
And I’m wondering if the recent death of Jim McGinty’s father in the last week may also be a factor in deciding McGinty’s political future ?
David Walsh
You asked GG earlier tonite for any evidense that Costello had designs on leedership , well Hewson article is 2nd indicator
Hewson is an ‘insider’ One could argue Hewson simply felt Costello’s mere presense in Parliament was a distraction to Turnbull’s leadership creating speculation and costello unwilling to accept shadow Cabinet
My feeling is 1/ there was th leak of Costello alegedly refusing shadow teaury…For mine it does not matter whether Costello was ever asked or was never asked….its leaking was deliberately anti Costello (by Turnbulll suporters) or deliberately leaking showing weak Turnbull anti Turnbull ( by Costello suporters)…more likely later4 given Costello said Joe was his ‘Junior minister’
So feel Costello was undermining
Hewson’s attack is so savage and so wide rangin I feel indicates a deliberate
PRE emptive politcal assinaton of Costeello to destroy his credibility to stop future undermining of Turnbull
Both indicate to me costello evidence of interst in Leadership However also show lackof ticker , and expecting Leadership to be handed to him…..proof of that is day Ian Mclocklan annouced his note in his wallett , that was th day for Costello numbers or no numbrs ….to chalenge and like Keating risk all , dare to win (and for hewson , a bonus to payback for being (rightly) rolld in 94 by Downer/costello
Alternativly you may argure i was a sunny day , and Hewson happened to write a a note to Per Costello ….sharing his warm pro costelo feelings…with 12 million voters
Ron, this is more tea leaf reading than it is evidence gathering.
Turnbull’s (and his supporters’) insecurity is not evidence of Costello’s plotting.
I’m not dismissive of Costello’s leadership ambitions by the way. (You’ve crudely condensed my actual challenge.) But I think its clear that Costello is only interested in becoming leader if it makes him Prime Minister. This is why he didn’t contest the leadership in the aftermath of the 2007 election, when had he done so, he probably would’ve been elected unopposed. My guess is he wants to be reasonably sure the government is beatable before taking the mantle. We all know that’s not going to be the case in 2010.
This also explains why Costello was so impatient to succeed Howard as Prime Minister. He knew the party wasn’t going to remain in government forever.
All my supposition of course. But one reasonably consistent with the course of events. Those who insist that Costello is gearing up for a challenge haven’t really any explanation for why he didn’t throw his hat in the ring in November 2007 or September 2008.
Julie’s dad comes out fighting on her behalf, like most parents he cant look at the whole picture, but he really cant blame her demise on being a woman, bringing up the couple of months she spent at Harvard as a big plus falls flat, actually it’s a reminder that Julie tried to give the impression she was fully educated at Harvard and only used a Harvard mug for her coffee {that was a bit of snob value}
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25089700-2682,00.html
even though the coalition would just wish this last week would go away the journo’s are having so much fun with it they aint letting go, though i think the rumblings will only last another week or so before it dies a natural death, how many remember the huge lib bust up just on the xmas break?
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/king-of-the-sandpit-losing-friends-fast-20090221-8e6w.html
the libs just cant understand Cossie is unelectable, they’re living on pipe dreams from the past.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25088439-5001021,00.html
when you have the extreme right wing scribes like Akerman, Milne, Bolt and Albrechtson turning on Turnbull then you know his position is terminal, they’re rather like a shoal of piranhas turning on a wounded companion and ripping him to shreds, i thought earlier that this last week would perhaps fade into the sunset as the lib ructions have done before, but with the full force of the right wing brigade ripping in it usually means a messy death.
it just gets dirtier and dirtier with leaked documents now–and i thought sunday would be a quiet day, at least it’s kept my insomnia entertained.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25088106-953,00.html
The Hewson-Costello love affairs continues unabaited
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/you-missed-your-chance-peter-20090221-8e70.html
Oh geez, it just gets better and better:
Talk about great Sunday morning reading!
Grog thank heavens someone is here, i was getting that sort of eerie feeling i was the last person left alive in the world, Swanny’s on meet the press.
Love the way that the pundits were all calling for Julie Bishop’s execution, and then when it happened they’re all attacking Turnbull for his “lack of even the most basic political skills” (cf. Milne today).
Gee fellas, we all knew Malcolm was a klutz politically. Just look how he squandered the chance of a Republic a decade ago. You must have known that too.
I had a nightmare the other night that Peter Costello was again being touted by the commentistas as the only leader for the Liberals, and then when I woke up Peter Costello was being touted as the only leader for the Liberals. The usual suspects going for the complete cleanout: first Bishop, then Turnbull. And then… the Messiah. Only he’s no Messiah. Peter Costello is more suited to the role of destroyer, not leader. As he sits there, apparently thoroughly enjoying the damage he is wreaking, smirk at full deployment, I wonder whether Peter has ever asked himself why he does it like that? Does he hate the Liberal Party so much that he’s prepared to destroy it? It almost makes you feel sorry for Turnbull. I baulk at sympathy for Bishop, but – under the right circumstances – Turnbull could get a little commiseration from me.
It looks like a seruious wedge of the Libs are seriously thinking that Costello, a man who has shown a profoundly obvious yellow streak on dozens of occasions when it comes to leadership and just plain, old-fashioned having-a-go, is the person to lead them out of the wilderness. At the first sign of rough weather he’d be off, blaming others.
The only good thing to come out of the present sorry mess is that there’s a chance that somewhere in that Byzantine maze of conflicting hatreds, loyalties and alliances, there might be a core of sensible types who are finally accepting that they lost the election, that the Australian people preferred their Great Leader completely out of Parliament, that the glory days are gone and must be earned back again. As long as their furious spouters in the media keep on proposing quick fixes and rabbits out of hats as the answer to the crushingly competent and popular Rudd government they’ll fail.
Thankfully I can’t see that happening for a long, long time.
Just here for a bit Judith, getting ht ekids ready to go out, then will be back later on (taping Insiders of course – oh you addict…)
Unfortunately watched the Crows get done last nght by Geelong on foxtel… not happy viewing
BB, Cossie wont take over the leadership unless theres an ironclad guarantee that he’ll win the next election and thats not likely, he hates Turnbull, Howie played them off against each other as he did any leadership aspirants to make himself more secure, thats ended up with them absolutely loathing each other and Cossie will quite happily sit there and undermine Turnbull just by being there.
Grog i didnt sleep all night after my beloved crows fiasco, meet the press is good this morning.
i think we have been too harshed here on Cossie, myself included. So i apologise to Cossie.
Remember “People Skills” Abbott undying declaration of: “We love him, we want him and we need him” that has also led to the King declaraing for Cossie that:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoRsmnGl_c8
The fact is that Cossie himself has been singing loudly: “I love to get out, i want to get out, i need to get out” but NOBODY would give him a effing job.
And now i can only assume that Hewie & Allbull would not act a referee for him in the smokin’ ruins of the Finance and Investment industry.
Hewson has summed up Costello accurately.
Judith @ 11,
I say let them live in the past and for as many years as they want to, the more they do so the more it helps us
Judith @ 20, Kangaroos didn’t win either so I’m with you in the not happy camper tent
Bob is waving his big stick (for what it is worth?)
No party can take for granted another party’s preferences but why would The Greens preference the LNP over Labor? What do they have in common?
Any chance that it wasn’t a union thug who made the death threat to Mr X when he voted against the stimulus package? I can’t see the Ruddster putting on a a fake voice.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25089705-5006301,00.html
Gary, I can’t think of a thing but I would suppose that what Brown was thinking is that they simply wouldn’t preference anyone? I read the article and it said “just vote ONE” strategy and from memory, I think that is whst it means ….
Dio, doesnt have to be anyone in particular, it could be some nutter who really isnt into politics but who just jumped on the bandwagon, some dills just snatch on the headlines and get their jollies from stuff like that, we’ve had threatening phone calls in the past, more so because i refuse to hide behind a silent number.
Hockey’s getting a cushy ride in Insiders, though he’s only repeating his Q&A mantra.
JB
You’ll notice they use the phrase “we’ll get him”. Perhaps it was a very worried Christopher Pyne putting on a deep voice, trying to make make sure the stimpac passed. It could have been one of the bludgers who were spewing about X voting no….
It was probably a pokies addict, paranoid that X would vote down Cleopatra’s $900.
Boy, it was lucky I watched Insiders!
Barry Cassidy told me how Howard did an excellent job demolishing Rudd’s essay and exposing for the fraud that it was. I particularly liked the replay of the bit of Howard’s speech where Howard told us all that people had never been better off. He forgot to mention “on paper, that is”, which is what Rudd’s criticism was all about: paper wealth not being quite the same thing as real wealth. No matter, a big tick from Barry.
Moving on, Joe Hockey has got it all over Swan, whose knees are, apparently, trembling with fear. When Joe got a little bit confused a couple of times, Barry stepped in and told him what he must have been thinking and that there was no contradiction at all. To which Joe readily agreed. Thanks Barry.
Meanwhile, it’s amazing to me that in a week where the Oppositionalmost completely exploded with internicine hatred, that no-one noticed it was Labor who’s on the ropes, specifically with the backflip on the ETS, which was a talking point among all my colleagues, at least. Again, felicitations Barry, for pointing out that it was really Rudd who lost the week in politics, and Rudd who should be having the nightmares, not the Libs.
We also heard that everything is going swimmingly for Peter Costello who is just about poijsed to take over the Liberal Leadership. Apparently he was not ready the other dozen or so times it was offered to him on a plate, for the taking. Maybe he wants his colleagues to beg?
So all in all, thanks to Barry Cassidy, I now know the truth about politics in Australia. The Libs are ready to strike. Labor is in tatters. And the small matter of two and a half years of record polls is a mere bagatelle. Rudd is toast.
No wonder so many interested viewers are glued to their sets come 9am Sunday morning when Barry sets us right.
BB, Cassidy’s a joke, i cant forget the way he treated Mrs. Cornes on election night, he wonders why Rudd cant be bothered to appear on his show, it even looks like the Q&A audience is weighted a bit, he might as well get up on a soapbox and proclaim his political allegience, it’s gleefully funny that for all his machinations he’s backing a lame dog.
Judith, wasn’t it Tony Jones who did over Nicole Cornes on election night? (Or did Barry have a go too?)
just bluddy fantastic–NOT, the Advertiser/Sunday Mail and ch7 are going into partnership and they’re going to collaborate and launch media campaigns, so now we’ll get a paper version of Barcelona Tonight, whats the bet one of the campaigns will be an assassination attempt on the labor government here, the papers have sunk fairly low over the last few years and this will just finish things off beautifully.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25088427-2682,00.html
from what i remember it was both, Tony mauled her on telly but Cassidy was quite scathing also, i’ve been howled down in the past but i think the ABC board with Howard’s lackys has a lot to do with it, the only reason they cant get to Kerry is his superstar image.
This poll seems to be another good result for Labor but I am also surprised there wasn’t a further shift towards Labor. Does anyone know when the poll was run and what sample size?
Anyway with all the Liberal infighting in the last few days I will watch the next news poll with interest. If Shanahan doesn’t cover it we will know its grim reading for the boys in blue.
Ah yes, the Insiders. Time to change the cats litter.
David,
Sorry I missed your comment last night re Costello v Turnbull.
Costello’s office this morning confirms that 2008 was basically a sabbatical for Costello (which I have commented previously). He also realised that the Libs would go through some internal turmoil as the remnants of the old regime worked out who’s who in the zoo. I believe that Costello wants to be last man standing in the battle to be Libs Leader and will want to time his run to be PM in waiting. He thinks he can bide his time.
Consequently, Costello has a vested interest in the continuing turmoil. Liberal Leadership battles are often about personalities as much as ideology and policies.
It seems that he’s actually doing Turnbull for enjoyment as much as anything else. I also suspect he still has some “business” to administer on Abbott and Minchin before he launches his triumphal ascension to the the Crown.
The big hold up to his advancement is his relative unpopularity amongst the punters.
I really think it is unrealistic to expect the polls to get worse for the coalition. Hell these polls ARE the worst. It’s the rusted ons that keep these polls at these levels for the coalition. Osama Bin Laden could lead them and these people would remain loyal.
‘Joe Hockey stumbles over stimulus size’
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25090066-5003402,00.html
Well, BB, Barrie my have helped him but the press are looking for the slip ups.
GB, dont you think we could squeeze a tiny percentage or two out of all of this turmoil? what a waste if we cant, surely 40% of voters cant be that rusted on, some must just throw their hands up in horror and move on.
Hockey tried to blame Swan because the people who fixed their home loans are now paying a higher rate, Hockey claimed it was because Swan talked inflation up –well now Swan has dished it back about the series of interest rate rises.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/02/22/2497919.htm
JB,
It’s an interesting question on how rusted on are the rusted ons. A 60/40 split would have been unthinkable in the past. Now we contemplate whether it is the high point for the Libs. I suspect if there is a breakthrough, the Lib vote might go in to free fall.
I think I’ve shown that I’m no friend of Turnbull, but this rewriting of history is quite offensive. The only good thing Turnbull has done in his life, as far as I know, was the ten years of work he put in on the republican cause. We would never have had the 1999 convention and referendum at all if it had not been for his efforts. The referendum was lost because Cleary and his cohorts decided to support the monarchy rather than accept the majority decision at the convention. No doubt Turnbull made errors during the republic campaign, but to blame him for the loss of the referendum is ridiculous.
Opening sentences from the article quoted by GB @ 41:
Holy $hite!
They are out for blood, aren’t they?
What a trivial molehill to turn into a mountain!
But.. but… just as I start to feel sympathy, I harden my resolve: the Libs and their media mates were just as cruel to Swan.
Hyenas of the press, indeed.
You’re late to the issue, Adam, and a bit overblown in your use of the word “offensive”.
I never doubted Turnbull’s passion for a Republic, or the good work he put into it in the years before the referendum (if you say so). But you make my point for me: to be outmanoeuvred by an amateur like Cleary was a poor show of political skills, indeed.
BB,
Looks like Hockey has had a rather short honeymoon.
For those interested, the Morgan was a face-to-face conducted last weekend Feb 14-15 with sample 828. That was when the focus was still on the bushfires, and the Lib shenanigans of this week hadn’t occurred.
BB, my apologies for not maintaining a 24-hour vigil here.
So what was Turnbull supposed to do differently? Most of his critics seem to say he should have accepted the demand that the referendum question be for a directly-elected president. But that was not the view of the majority of the convention, and Turnbull wasn’t in charge of the process – Howard was. A direct-election referendum would have lost just as clearly as the indirect election referendum was, because of the split in the republicam majority. Turnbull didn’t create that split. You might argue that he could have done more to repair, but I don’t see how.
Why are people on fixed loans complaining, don’t these people realize they are actually paying the loan off faster by paying the higher rate!
mb,
I don’t think that’s right.
Judith 43
If anything Swan let Hockey off lightly. The real problem with mortgage debt in Australia was the absurd price growth in housing from 2001 to 2004. So people are committed to loans too large for their income. Remember it occurred BEFORE the boom in mining royalties from 2005 to 2007. We didn’t have sub-prime loans here but we still got a far too great boom in house prices. Why? The reason was Howard and Costello’s policies. The main reason was some very stupid changes to the rules for capital gains and tax write-offs on investment housing passed by that economic genius, Peter Costello, around the year 2000. They made investment housing a no-loss gamble until eventually everyone lost. So people gambled on houses while the share market tanked. Then when shares recovered the house market lost steam.
Remember Howard’s claim “I haven’t heard anyone complaining about the increase in the value of their home”. The value didn’t increase, just the price because of bad policy. Swan should remind people of that rubbish statement, because it sheets home responsibility for something we now realise was very stupid. In fact, some economists did warn about it back then, but got ignored. I wrote to some Labor sources asking them to raise it in 2004, but sadly they didn’t. I would love to know what advice was issued to government by Treasury or the RBA on this back then. They must have known the risks Howard and Costello were running.
One thing our economic leaders need to have slapped out of them is the idea that rising house prices are a good thing. They aren’t. It just ties up a lot of our capital in speculative investment that doesn’t geneate income. We need houses, but they need to be at prices 20 somethings can afford to buy.
mb
Fixed rate loans means the interest rate is fixed. If it was at a higher rate then you are locked into paying a lager share of your repaments as interest, and less off the capital. Hence it takes longer.
Lord D 49
Thanks that explains a lot. I take GBs point that there is only so high teh 2PP can go, but I wouldn’t mind betting Newspoll will show a further rise for Labor, even if its only 1-2%.
Yes, It can be done. It’s usually by the magicians at your local RSL clubs.
Here is an example of where those ignorant of economcis (eg ratings agencies like Standard and Pores) can do harm in a recession. They have downgraded Qld debt from AAA to AA+
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/qld-loses-aaa-credit-rating-after-budget-blowout/2009/02/21/1234633113299.html
I find this ridiculous. Qld faces a drop in revenue from the coal price decline and will now have a debt. But much of their spending is on capital infrastructure to support growth. Overall they are miles ahead of somewhere like NSW, which still gets AAA. One of the other consequences peope shoudl remember from the sub prime crisis is that it exposed that rating agencies have a very poor record at accurately assessing risk.
Socrates, all the rise in the cost of houses did was to make my rates and taxes a whole lot dearer and on a WW’s pension thats not good, i wouldnt mind my house value going back to pre Howard days if the costs of maintaining it would go back as well, at least i dont have to worry about interest rates ive got a defence service loan, the DSL used to be enough to buy a house now it wouldnt even cover the deposit on one after Howard’s surge in housing prices.
Socrates @ 53.
Agree. The words “housing-led recovery” should be enough to sink Costello forever.
even the Australian is running Hockey’s stumble.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25090072-2702,00.html
and Swan claims the governments economy packages are working.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25090063-2702,00.html
Too much media chasing too little news.
60 Judith Barnes – I actually think it’s unfair. What it does highlight is the standard of political journalism we have here. I’m yet to be convinced Joe has the goods but this is crap.
Geez the bar is getting set pretty low now on what costitutes a stumble.
Came home, put my tape of Insiders on; saw Blair, saw Hockey was getting the interview… gave the FF button a good workout.
I hope Swan doesn’t mention the “stumble” in QT this week. If Hockey actually did think it was $42m, well yes, it would be worth pointing it out… but geez, how pathetic is journalism in this country if what he said is now considered news… bring on the footy season, so the Sunday papers have enough to fill their pages.
Nice quote by Swan:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25090062-2702,00.html
Sky News plays down the Hewson/Costello spat. What a surprise!
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=305376
I think Joe’s comments are a bit of a beatup but they could have got him for far worse on Insiders.
He was trying to turn Glen Steven’s positive comments re the stimulus package into a negative for Labor and a plus for the Lib’s prattling on about the marathon we will be running. BB was right – Cassidy, as usual, is mostly useless in his interviewing.
I disagree with you Adam re Turnbull and the republic. I was furious after the event because Turnbull seemed not to have the negotiation skills he needed with the other mob to come to a compromise.
Of course, the Convention came to a consensus. It was the one Howard worked for from the beginning. Turnbull fell for it.
After the event Turnbull was one mean, nasty little fella and there was barely a whimper out of him. He turned up his toes and apart from his comment re Howard breaking our hearts or some other such garbage, he went into a sulk.
He doesn’t have the personality to lead – it’s a case of do what I say, or else. That won’t get him far. Just look at the division in the ranks. Nelson was doing a better job at keeping the guys in line.
Poor old ABC Barry Cassidy types, they have Joe on to promote what a great treasurer he’d be compared to that dunce Swanny of the high fixed term mortgage rates, then (going by what I’ve read here) they have clips of their hero Howie supposedly demolishing Rudd and his essay, then their LIb panel say what a wonderful week their mob has had and give the immpession that Rudd is gone, he may as well resign now and hand over the PM ship to that great leader of men Cossie.
BUT WHAT DO THE PAPERS SAY! and from the OO at that
rotflmao An hour of building up Joe and the Libs all for no avail
BH, that is, with all due respect, a load of nonsense. You are allowing your current view of Turnbull to colour your retrospective view of him at the time of the referendum. What should he have done differently? And what exactly was he supposed to do after the referendum? Call for an insurrection? Your comments suggest to me that you followed Cleary’s line in supporting the monarchy because you didn’t get your way at the convention. Is that the case? If so, the loss of the referendum was much more your fault than Turnbull’s.
Rudd has just said that the Vic bush fire is “the worst of nature”. i have to take issue here with the Ruddster. nature is nature is nature. it is neither good or bad. It just is. it is us, humans that place value judgement on things.
Vera – how did you get that beaut face (tongue out) on comment 68.
BH you do a : with a P right beside it
I’m not sure anyone should be complaining about Costello’s work ethic. Clearly he attempting to minimise his personal carbon footprint.
Vera – how did you get that beaut face (tongue out) on comment 68.
I’d like to put it on an email to my IT ‘knowitall’ son when I stuff up and have to ask how to fix this darn contraption. He replies ‘Oh Mother – not again”
Next time I want to send that face. lol
No Adam – I am a deadset Republican and have been since I was a kid. Could never work out why we had a Queen on the other side of the world and I am off very, very old Celtic stock (Hamilton) – the mob dates back to 1100s. I must have been the black sheep.
But my grudge against Turnbull goes right back to that Referendum. It was standing out a mile that the vote wouldn’t get up with the ‘why change what is working’ line. We have mostly been a conservative mob.
Turnbull landed in my area (on business) shortly after – the people who met him here came away with a decided view about him and it wasn’t favourable I can tell you.
I kept thinking how on earth did you get it so wrong in the direction. We all hate pollies making too many decisions. Surely a compromise in a directly elected Head of State could have been negotiated. We all knew Howard would never let the monarchy go so surely cleverer negotiators than Turnbull should have engaged with Cleary and the rest of his rabble.
My current view of Turnbull is based on what I personally encountered some time ago. I don’t think I can trust the bloke.
One of my biggest regrets is that I won’t see a Republic in my lifetime. I expect the Queen to go on like her mother did. Must add I have a tremendous amount of respect for the lady tho.
As a kid I longed to have the dollar. $sd was always a damn pain in the neck to a non-mathematical brain like mine. At least I got that one.
BH here’s a web page that shows how to do some other faces too
C:\Users\helen\Desktop\Site Info – SarahCherim_com.mht
Whoops should be
http://sarahcherim.com/info/
BH: That may not work the way you think it will. Turning the colon+UpperCaseP into a pretty graphic is done by the blog software on this site.
You could download the file directly and insert it into your email: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wp-content/mu-plugins/tango-smilies/tango/face-raspberry.png
Alternatively you son will get the meaning without the graphic.
As an aside, I have just found that if you right-click on one of these images and select properties you will not only get the link (as above) but also an “Alternate Text” property which tells you the character sequence used to create the smiley.
No doubt, but did you vote Yes or No in the referendum?
Thanks Vera – son will be surprised in the way I want him to be. He is a gem really but I’ll enjoy giving him heaps.
Adam – I was a bit garbled above but really Cleary was a dunderhead. However he had a point about people wanting to feel they were assisting in making the choice. If that had not been the case the ‘yes’ vote would have romped it in.
I do not believe that we should put the names up for the vote but some independent body could consult and put forward names for election. That is no different to the pollies putting forward names, surely.
did you vote Yes or No in the referendum?
I voted Yes Adam and will until my dying day (hopefully I will get the chance).
If it eventually means the pollies get the say OK – I was OK with that before but I still heard many people around me saying that they wanted a hand in it. I couldn’t have cared less as long as we got our own HOS.
To say I was mad when the vote was No is an understatement. I almost uttered the fword for the first time in my life.
Thanks Musrum – I will copy what you have said and will astound not only my sons but the grandkids. That is really saying something. lol
I could not believe we had let it slip away so easily. It is now going to have to wait awhile as it is not a first order issue.
Wow, what an article on Hewson giving it to Costello! That is the best telling someone off I have ever read in politics. The reason Hewson did it is because they hate each other and it was payback for Cossie. Hewson finally had the perfect opportunity, and he let rip. It’s all TRUE I might add. Every single word of it. Cossie is bone lazy (treasury knows it), weak as thin air and unelectable.
Deep commiserations to Cossie supporters and Bree. Handover the tissues. Bwahahahaha.
Fine, so you are acquitted of responsibility for the loss of the referendum. That leaves the question of what you think Turnbull should have done differently.
* Agreed to direct election? In that case the referendum would have been lost just as decisively, because many people who voted Yes for indirect election would have voted No to direct election.
* Refused to participate on the grounds that Howard was rigging the process? A defensible view, but it means we would have had no referendum at all.
Turnbull is no politician. I’ve been saying that from Day #1… even before that, if that’s possible.
The Republic Referendum gave him away. He latched onto what he thought was an unloseable cause and lost it anyway.
The man’s a contrarian. He’s at his best when he thinks “outside the square”, but at the end of it all he’s in for a quick fix of glory. Always has been. He’ll tire of politics when he realises he doesn’t have a chance of winning the next election, and likely the election after that. If he contests the next one as Leader, he’ll blow away as quickly as he blew in, the day after the vote.
Not to say he doesn’t have guts. He does. But it’s crazy-brave, crash-through-or-crash guts. He likes to get in a score a quick win. Then he moves on. He’s only been in Parliament for four years and for a while the “meteoric rise” seems standard-Turnbull. But now he’s come up against a brick wall in the Rudd government which continues to do well with the support of millions who tired of Howard, who want Australia to succeed (despite the doom and gloom being purveyed), believe it will and don’t want to hear senior Opposition types telling them they were wrong in choosing Labour, wrong in continuing to support Labour, and wrong in daring to hope things might not be as bad as we’re continually told they are.
In particular, Hockey’s basic tactic of telling anyone who’ll listen that they’ve got no hope because nothing Rudd can do will ever be right, ergo, we’re ruined before we even try, must be galling to those who don’t like to be told they’re mugs, day after day. He tried variations of the same ploy with Rudd in Opposition, with Work Choices and with his petulant sermonising on parliamentary procedure at the beginning of last year in the HoR. I don’t see why Turnbull has chosen him to be the great purveyor of Liberal philosophy and economic management skills: Hockey has been a dud in almost everything he does. No amount of wild postulating and moving little pieces of paper around a desk will ever put this Humpty Dumpty back together inthe form of a recognizably electable Prime Minister. Bad choice, Malcolm.
To Turnbull himself… Malcolm sees that he’s failed. He’s just hanging around now, hoping for a miracle. Everytime he says “Peter can do whatever he wants” he weakens himself. I think Turnbull’s just going through the motions.
Costello the “low-altitude flyer” …
Laurie Oakes long experience as a political commentator has come to the fore here. Not everyone will agree with everything he has to say here, but I think in general he is pretty well on the money. this analysis is a bit long but it has a fair bit of ground to cover. A must read.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25082999-5001030,00.html
Centre @ 83
Nobody in Australia really gives a toss about what Hewson has to say. A bitter man rejected in 1993. All in all, this rant has backfired on Hewson and has weakened Turnbull even more. Costello is still the shiny star.
88 Bree – You reckon? Hardly.
I’ll ignore the fatcat complaints in this article but who would have thought 1000 of the 4000 SA public servants earning >$100,000 work for the Police? I’m absolutely amazed.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25089699-2682,00.html
Bree is right about the first part. Hewson has always been bitter and twisted since losing in ‘93, but Costello no star, he’s an astroid heading straight for the Liberal Party. No one could lead his self interested colleagues at the moment, Turnbull included. Discipline needs to be achieved, and opposition parties need to be ruled with an iron fist if they want to obtain government. No one in the current crop of contenders matches that description.
Adam – In retrospect I thought the Referendum should have been delayed until all the fighting had settled.
It was all so silly. So what if we had delayed it for a couple of years or so – the compromise may have better reflected what the people wanted – not the stacked Convention agreement.
The arguments started immediately it was known that the pollies would be making the decision. I watched every part of that Convention (even bought Vizard’s book afterwards) but I was hearing from a lot of people that they weren’t happy. ‘Better none than what they are asking’ seemed to be the refrain.
And I am with BB – he has said it all. I’m sorry things are not turning out well for Malcolm but all the way, in everything he does, it seems that there is a little sneakiness.
He seems to let a lot of people down in the long run. Short term Mal – get in for the big bang and move on before they catch you out. You are right BB
Bree, this is what Turnbull should do if he was really smart:
Turnbull should hold a press conference and demand that Cossie finally shows a glimpse of ticker for the first time in his life and challenge for the leadership OR leaves the Party NOW because it is impossible for any Opposition Leader to do the job properly with constant and forever speculation of Cossie’s future!
Cossie would then have absolutely no choice but to challenge, lead the Liberals to certain defeat at the next election, I collect
and Turnbull could have another go for 2013 where is chances would be greater.
#93 We all know that Turnbull doesn’t have the guts for this, nor does he the authority having won the last pre selection contest by such a narrow margin. Centre’s plan would lead to more calamity, whilst entertaining it would hardly be productive for the party.
Centre @ 93
Wrong! Turnbull will lead to 2010 and lose and go the backbench. Costello will lead us to victory in 2013 with Hockey as deputy leader. Costello/Hockey in 2013 is the winning ticket!
Just have a look at Costello grinning from ear to ear but fidgeting in his seat like he’s jus $hat his pants.
That’s why he won’t put his hand up for the leadership as he knows he’ll get more of the same from Rudd and Gillard.
Any chance the good people of Higgins will get jack of Cossie’s destruction of the Liberal Party and vote him out? Of course, any Lib vote away from him could be balanced by Labor voters strategically voting for him to keep him in harm’s way (a la Rush Limbaugh’s advocating Repugs vote for Hillary in the primary to draw out the Obama cakewalk).
Keating knew how to get under Costello’s skin, that’s for sure.
(Note: I’m not a Keating Tragic. The man is as self-obsessed as the rest of ‘em … but he could turn a phrase or two.)
#97 It’s about as likely as Cossie challenging Mal, theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.
Read somewhere the other day that Michael Kruger is still organising for Cossie to be leader and for all Vic Party Officials to retain jobs.
All the publicity this weekend may cause Costello to change his mind – or NOT.
Just one problem Bree, Costello is unelectable. Do you want someone so weak as our PM?. Seriously!
That’s why I said if Turnbull was smart. He finally gets rid of Cossie, and has a shot at a better chance of winning in 2013.
Also, Turnbull is in a weaker electoral position. Costello holds his seat by 7.1% and Turnbull holds his seat by a very poor 3.9%. If King was still the member for Wentworth, he would be holding the seat by a margin of 10% or more.
Bree, even the rusted Libs on here tell you to shut your trap. I’d suggest to take their advice.
http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2004nsw.htm#wentworth
I think I’ll start up the “Pollbludgers for Costello: Vote for Him So He Can Do Whatever He Wants” campaign.
Bree,
With the polls showing Labor at around 60% 2PP, then neither Costello nor Turnbull will be returned. Voters revenge or nature purging? You decide.
too right Diog, let’s keep Aus politics interesting, let’s
“Keep Cossie in Canberra!”
Diogs you have aged since the last time I saw you. I can safely inform the women on this site that I am better looking.
Centre
I’ve changed my gravatar back to to the old Hermit With Lamp one. No-one seemed to care less who my last one was, even though I said he was one of my heroes. Pearls before swine is the phrase that comes to mind.
I believe that those people that have been caught with a fixed interest rate, are those who believed Howard & Costello that interest rates are always higher under an ALP Government. All they could see was 17%. So it is Howard’s and Costello’s fault that these people have been caught out.
The Calition and their supporters can’t hae it both ways.
Oh Joe, you really didn’t say that did you?
“Dear Mr M…
Thank you for your letter of 12 August, 2007 concerning the global finance system.
I have noted your views. I however disagree vehemently with your analysis that the world is facing a collapse of the financial markets. The last few days have indicated that the financial markets, with the support of the central banking institutions, are able to meet the demands that have been placed on them.
Yours sincerely, Joe Hockey”
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/02/joe-hockey-where-angels-fear-to-tread.html
Did anyone hear Tim Blair on Insiders say that Conservatives very rarely form Governments by adopting more moderate policies?
Well, isn’t that rubbish? Howard had to abandon his opposition to Medicare, Superannuation and Asian immigration before he was electable.
I would suggest that all parties have to moderate their views before being elected, just as Rudd moderated some of Labor’s views on I.R.(support for secret ballots) at the last election.
Look at the UK conservatives. Who is Tim Blair and what has he been smoking?
Diogenes,
I thought it was the actor Henry Szeps who played the free loading manipulative dentist son in Mother and Son.
Strange hero.
bob1234 @ 112
The Conservatives in the UK are going to win next year’s general election by huge margin. I predict:
Conservative 434 seats
Labour 165 seats
Actually it was Giovanni Falcone, the anti-mafia magistrate who was assassinated in 1992. Very soon after his friend Paolo Borsellino met the same fate. Actually, I’m currently wearing a T-shirt I made with the photo of the sheets in the Wiki article.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Falcone
Bree, nobody listens to your predictions as you have been shot down in flames by both sides time and time again for your largesse of ignorance.
Diogenes,
Henry might get the gig if they ever do a feature movie on him.
GG
Chazz Palminteri played his part in a movie about Falcone, although Henri Szeps does look uncannily like him. Haven’t seen the movie but the book “Excellent Cadavers” was brilliant.
bob1234, so you think Gordon Brown will win next year?
A federal politician I spoke to today said this week’s newspoll will show an increased lead to Labor …
Diogenes, if those complex, highly detailed avatars people use were capable of being distinguished in sufficient size and resolution by middle aged eyes, perhaps there would be more comment and banter over them. As it is, I can barely discern the predominant colour …
And, ladies and gentlemen, I can now reveal to you what next week’s MSM anti-Rudd scandal was meant to be.
There was a cover photograph of Rudd on the last issue of The Monthly magazine. A mighty fine photo it is too, Rudd is all statesman like, regal even.
The Murdoch vultures couldn’t resist. They worked out such a magnificent portrait couldn’t be produced for less than $4000, and immediately smelt the obscene (using GP terminology) and wasteful expenditure of Taxpayers’ Money.
The presses were held, the hysteria and hyperbole were whipped into a literary frenzy and then … and then someone, as an after thought, contacted the Monthly magazine to find out who released the photo to them. That should have embroiled one other ministerial office into the pastiche, at least.
But the answer they got deflated the balloon immediately. The bloody Monthly had commissioned and paid for the photo themselves! Treacherous Bastards!
So now the story is a one liner in the back pages of Perth’s Sunday Times, revealing only that a $4000 photo of Kevin Rudd appeared on the front cover of The Monthly.
One wonders why they bothered …
The big difference between Brown and Rudd is that UK Labour has been in power for 11 years, so they have to take the blame for everything, and most people have now forgotten why they voted the Tories out. In Cameron they have a bland smiling non-entity as leader, not a polariser like their last three leaders. Also English voters have never liked Scots. Brown should have taken the chance on a snap poll when he succeeded Blair, or again late last year when his popularity surged as a “strong leader.” I think he has now missed his chance. The UK economy is going to crash very badly and he will get blamed, regardless of the merits. Note that NONE of these factors apply in Australia.
I can’t wait for Prime Minister David Cameron. The UK needs a fresh start and needs to move away from the stench of Tony Blair.
Cameron is an upper-class twit and will be a very poor PM. They should have gone with Boris IMHO.
The stench of Tony Blair arises only out of his proximity to John Howard and George Bush Snr. when they lay in bed together.
Jnr.
Diogenes,
Falcone was one very brave dude. I recently saw a documentary on his role as chief magistrate in Sicily. It is very clear the whole system was totally corrupted by the Mafia. Falcone had a few spectacular wins. But, I fear that he was more a speed hump for organised crime than a slayer.
I would compare David Cameron with NZ’s John Key. A true statesman that listens to all sides of the debate. They are like Ronald Reagan, popular conservatives.
Bree, what planet do you come from again?
86 Inner Westie – the hansard of that clip os good reading!
I especially like how when PJK mentions the Hawks Nest, Howard rasies his eyebrows and slightly nods his head – he knew Keating had Costello pegged as well.
Not the biggest of calls!
Adam in Canberra, tell me three things that you think Gordon Brown can win the election on?
Grog: True – Not really … but a pleasant thought on a lazy Sunday afternoon.
Bree, I didn’t say I thought Brown will win. I think he will probably lose. His best chance of winning is to focus on the fact that Cameron is an upper-class lightweight with no policies other than smiling a lot and agreeing with everyone. I do think that Brown’s responses to the GFC have been correct, but as I said, when you’ve been in power for 11 years it’s hard to evade responsibility for a crash.
Planet Bullingdon then Bree ?
The Coalition’s problems in opposition started when Costello didn’t stand up and take the leadership in November 2007.
Had he done so, he wouldn’t have been subjected to the instability that both Nelson and Turnbull have experienced. He would have been given a clear run to the next election, as Kim Beazley was from 1996 to 1998 and, in fact, to 2001.
Having not taken the position, he should either have left with Downer or if he really wanted a bit of a break, made it clear he was not re-nominating for Higgins for 2010 from the outset.
All that’s happening now in the Coalition, is instability and infighting is filling the vacuum that has emerged as a result of having no leader with authority. Nelson didn’t have it and Turnbull doesn’t have it.
Neslon wasn’t up to it, and Turnbull is trying far too hard to make an impression.
Instead of sounding thoughtful and measured, he sounds shrill and negative, because he feels under pressure from within the party to make “big hits” against the government at every opportunity.
Unfortunately for Turnbull, the electoral cycle doesn’t work that way. He is in a six match test series but his party is expecting him to play like he’s in a twenty-twenty match. He, like all opposition leaders, needs time to build his innings. He needs at least one clear term and providing he performed adequately, two. But the way he’s going, he will burn himself and the Coalition for several terms.
I think the thing that killed Brown was his handling of the Royal Bank of Scotland fiasco. It will cost Labour all lot of seats. How big a majority do you think Cameron will get if he wins next year. Will it beat Blair’s one from 1997? How many safe red seats will turn to blue seats? I can see the UK election map turning 80% blue next year!
Nice one Grog. “Underneath that barrel chest of yours is a caraway seed for a ticker” is one for the glory box …
Browns problem is that he is wedded to the city.
Well Bree you can gloat about the UK if it gives you a compensatory thrill for the fact that your party here is in an utterly hopeless mess. UK Labour has had 11 years in power, their longest stint in office ever, and has seen off four Tory leaders, so it’s not really much to gloat about.
The situation at the Royal Bank of Scotland has become so bad, that customers are withdrawing their money from this bank, because they fear they won’t get it back soon enough! The bank is not lending much anymore either. Brown doesn’t stand a chance of keeping this bank afloat!
Be gentle Adam. This is political prozac …
Aristotle,
I agree that Costello was the logical choice to take on the Liberal Leadership post election. But, he was too wary to be caught up in the “it’s Buggins turn” hysteria. Clearly, Costello has been on a sabbatical to re acquaint himself with his family and electorate. He wrote a book and allegedly fielded external opportunities (which did not rise to his expectations). He is also well aware that new Governments are rarely rolled after one term.
It’s clear that Costello is now a player again. The Liberal Party has not moved very far and Costello is almost remote from the fray. He’ll let Turnbull or who ever take the next election fall and be there ready, willing and able to take the leadership and the PM job when the latter is likely to fall in to his lap.
Love the title of this article
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/turnbull-in-a-china-shop-20090221-8e73.html?page=1
I really could not care less about the Royal Bank of Scotland. My only comment is that the reason Australian banks are not in the same mess is that KEVIN RUDD stepped in promptly with his bank guarantee, which your party at first supported and now opposes.
Adam in Canberra @ 145
This reason why our banks are not in this mess is because of PRUDENTIAL REGULATION. In the 1997 budget, Treasurer Peter Costello created the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA). It was basically designed to over see and regulate the actions of Australian banks going into foreign markets. Had it not been for APRA, our banks would be in the same mess as the UK banks. Even Julia Gillard, when she was in Davos, was saying that our banks were quote “the best in the world”. Julia Gillard effectively praised Peter Costello’s APRA.
Here is the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gde0eN52hnc
Bree, the Governor of the Reserve Bank made the same point as Adam on Friday. What do you know that Adam and the reserve Bank Governor missed?
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/economics/rba2008/Hearings/Transcript1.pdf
Bree way back at 5:
(1) Don Randall? Popular? You’re dreaming. If there’s a decent sized swing like there was over east last time, he’s gone. That seat was actually Labor not so long ago.
(2) MacTiernan’s probably the most popular of Carpenter’s former ministers (competent, not tainted by Burke)… she’s a potential premier in four years time. If Labor get rid of the nightwatchman within the next year, bury Burke in a deep hole like Gallop did, and put MacTiernan and a few smart new-ish people (Papalia, Wyatt etc) in senior positions, they’ll have a very good shot in 2013. Basically they need to pick up Morley (a near-certainty) and one other (Riverton, Wanneroo, Southern River and Jandakot are low-hanging fruit), and not lose any they currently have. It’s not that hard to imagine.
As for your other post about Turnbull’s margin… here’s something to ponder. There were four seats in the country last election which swung to the Liberals; Swan and Cowan in WA (Lib gains), Franklin in Tasmania (Harry Quick’s old seat), and… Wentworth. He’ll hold his seat next time too.
GG
Falcone was responsible for the Maxi-Trials which did quite a lot of damage to the Mafia, but it was such a hydra-like organisation that it could always recover from losing a few heads. What Falcone really achieved was through his death (and Borsellino’s) a disgust amongst Italians about the Mafia.
Rome sent in the army to perform the actions of the police in Sicily which freed up the police to just hunting down the Mafia, who started to give themselves up and become “pentitti” (informers). The Mafia went into a huge decline after that, from which it has not fully recovered.
The Mafia also became a kinder and gentler criminal organisation under the leadership of Bernardo Provenzano, whose nickname The Butcher or The Tractor changed with his management style to The Accountant.
I don’t dispute that APRA, which was set up with Labor’s support, has been an effective regulator. But other countries have bank regulators as well, and their banks have gone bad. There have been a number of reasons why our banks have retained public confidence, and the main one has been the Rudd guarantee. That I presume is why Turnbull initially supported it, before he decided to play the cheap opportunist and oppose everything Rudd does, in the hope that Australia will have a deep recession and he can inherit the ruins.
hmmm vera, julie bishop seems to be “very close” to many people
Bree, do us a favour and move to New Zealand or the UK(assuming Cameron wins the next election).
Rudd isn’t rated too highly as an orator, but I thought he was rather impressive at the memorial service earlier today!
Dio
I actualy didn’t recognise your previous avatar or its significance till you explained it now. I almost feel like suggesting that you change it back if you will – Falcone was an admirable person, who deserves to be remembered.
bree is like the old cheese, full of holes
Bree
I agree APRA was sensible but I pesonally think that Costello can’t take all the credit. For one thing APRA isn’t perfect – its insurance regulation division had no idea until after the collapse of HIH (read the commission of inquiry report). Australia’s economic regulation is mainly due to a competent and professional Treasury and RBA staff that has survived purges that sometimes accompany changes of government in other departments. It is the sort of expertise built up over a preiod of time, not just one Act.
Costello didn’t always institute effective regulation. No doubt Bree is aware of the compromises in the CLERP 9 reforms earlier this decade where they whimped out of regulating executive salaries (non-binding votes by shareholders) and investment funds (self regulation!). So yes our banks are well regulated, thanks mainly to the public servants that watch over them, adn have done since before APRA. But lets not kid ourselves that all aspects of our financial governance are a model of integrity, or that any one politican can take all the credit.
“Concerns are again growing in Victoria, where bushfire conditions are expected to return to extreme tomorrow with hot temperatures and northerly winds forecast.”
Socrates
Good point. I’ve changed it back.
Falcone and Borsellino are in the highly controversial Time Heroes of the Last 60 Years, along with Mandela, Gorbie, Sakharov, Rabin and Walesa, amongst others.
http://www.time.com/time/europe/hero2006/opener.html
Janet Albrechtsen on Hewson- TERRIFIC! 100% agree!
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/hewsons_delusions_of_grandeur/
No thanks, I haven’t had my dinner yet, Bree.
Janet is incapable of a rational argument. Every time she writes about any topic with two sides, she says one side is right because I agree with it and the other side is wrong because I don’t agree with it. That’s as sophisticated as it gets. She’s never swayed a single voter.
When was the last time Janet A wrote anything that influenced anything?
And is this the same person who wrote “John Howard it’s time to go”? I guess she was doing that just for the good of the party she professes to love…
the media isnt going to let sleeping dogs lie, it’s going to be a tough week in question time for the coalition this week, Hockey will try bluster and i’m cringing at the thought of Pyne’s whiney high pitched voice pleading to the speaker.
did you know his dad Dio? does he take after him? or do we blame his maternal anscestors? someone has to be to blame for foisting that whimpish scrap of a man on us.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=755457
Diogs,
She wants John Howard to come back. She’s clearly at one of those levels of grief that we hear a lot about. I think it’s the one where you go completely bonkers.
costello HAS to be in big trouble if janet jumps forward in his defence. Is she seriously saying costello’s lack of contribution to the fibs since late 2007, in their time of dire need, is to be applauded ?
Apparently free speech is not available to hewson – no wonder the article appeared in the fairfax papers.
Dio
The current avatar is the better one. Fascinating read on Wiki that you linked to.
Funny about Janet, she didn’t address Hewsons points, except to acknowledge that there was an ongoing feud, struggle and tension between Turnbull and Costello that should be kept quite.
Most of the article spent personally attacking Hewson, expressing love for Howard and she still harbours some strange deep seated bitterness to Keating.
I might bake Hewson a birthday cake with pink icing and the word *GST* in the middle.
Fair comment on Hewson, actually. I enjoyed his attack on Costello. I enjoy her attack on him. I enjoy all attacks by conservatives on each other. Long may they continue.
Dio 158
Thanks – nice to see him back
The Fairfax newspapers are a disgrace. They are a mouth piece for anti-Costello rant and suck up to Saint Kevin.
I can only assume that Janet have seen them. Good for her.
JB
I didn’t know his dad (he died before I became a doctor when he was in his fifties) but my dad knew him well (probably a Catholic thing, perhaps he went to Rostrevor). I’ll ask my dad who has only met Christopher once, when my sister was stabbed in Spain. Dad said CP was very helpful then.
How many times, next week, will the speaker say “The Member for Sturt will resume his seat, there is no point of order”. ?
The disgrace is the OO. Just read Shanananhan or the 8th dwarf
173: Several hundred.
Hi Bree, I thought Kev was pretty good, but I hadn’t elevated him to sainthood yet – glad to see you approve
Tom.
dio, sorry about your sister, i didnt know, i hope your family recieved help from all sides.
Who is the political commentator who’s wife is a Liberal and standing for pre selection just curious,Alannah MacTiernan should stay on in Perth and boot Ripper out of the Leadership,at least she gets things done.
I also think that the entire labour front bench when they were in Govt, bar Alannah should resign and get out to let new blood in,if Bree thinks that the bunch of incompetents that just got in at the last election will be voted back in I think she is sadly mistaken.
All it takes is 2 by elections and Bye Bye Bumbling Barnett,and the massive bribe for the Nats,Costello kinda remind’s me of Bree they are both fools
It is not only Mr Costello who is lazy, it is the reporters and commentators in our major media outlets.
In the overall scheme of things the internal politics of the Liberal Party are irrelevant. Guys and Gals of “the media” wise up they are not the Govt.
Is it too much to ask for people who write stuff about politics to stop acting like a bunch of mutant lemmings, feeding off each others stories until that is the only thing that matters?
The Joe Hockey “gaffe” today was the ultimate in toad poo, they report the “gaffe” instead of the substance of his position (which is the real story – he has no position).
Bizarre, lazy, self indulgent, but bad for the political debate,
ruawake, thats whats going to be annoying, Pyne jumping up every two minutes squealing and waving his finger at the speaker, i dont think they’ve got used to a balanced speaker yet and think their compliant disgrace is still in the chair.
Hewson’s article was appalling not because of its pervasive vitriol, but for its breathtaking irony. Here’s a guy, supposedly preaching about defending the stability of the party, publicly beheading one of it’s most accomplished members with infantile aspersions. Hewson is an imbecile.
I must admit, it was quite exciting to read Hewson’s critique of Costello. Every word of it rings true: from the “no balls” comment, to “bone-lazy”, “self-indulgent memoirs”, to “would be nothing without Treasury”.
This outburst is certain to deepen the rift in the Liberal Party if Costello does decide to say on. Though I would have thought his position after this would be untenable, according to his staffers he does intend to stick around.
Has Hewson “pulled the trigger” on the Liberals, as presaged by Jack the Insider at the OO:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/who_will_pull_the_trigger/
Finns those good ole country boys love her
No 179
I agree to a large extent. Hockey’s Insiders performance wasn’t particularly strong and had Kerry O’Brien been interviewing, he would have fallen flat on his face.
And I don’t why the media reported this “gaffe” – to me it initially seemed like Hockey was trying to avoid the use of the word “trillion”, thereafter causing him to mix up his words – unintentionally of course.
The reason the media are so obsessed with the internal goings on of the Coalition is that Labor is giving them absolutely nothing. Rudd is totally on top of the agenda, the senior ministers are all performing well, the Cabinet is united, the ambitious are being kept busy, the backbench is not grumbling, there are no leaks. In 15 months there has been one change in the lineup with the departure of the invisible Murphy and the promotion of Arbib. Since Canberra has far too many political journalists and commentators being paid far too much to pursue far too few of the kind of easy colour-and-movement stories they like (since actual policy is too hard for most of them), they are naturally queuing up for the only show in town – the Coalition circus. And when the Coalition won’t give them stories quickly enough they beat them up out of thin air.
Evan14 what got me with Rudd’s speach today was that he was loudly applauded before and after he spoke, the other speakers only got muted applause after their speeches.
GP
I don’t agree. Hewson would argue that his article was trying to get Costello to quit which would stabilise the party.
I saw my dad yesterday, who thinks that John Howard is the best PM ever by a considerable margin, and he was spewing about Costello not quitting, or going for the leadership. He thinks Costello is damaging his own brand so much that he won’t be a success if/when he takes over the Libs.
I got a lecture about needing the greatest Treasurer in history back in the saddle to stop Rudd from spending our country into eternal debt.
Although his ‘Insiders’ interview was completely uninspiring, the Hockey ‘gaffe’ was absolutely nothing.
It just left me wondering… THIS is the ‘great communicator’?
GP, what does ‘infantile aspersions’ mean?
Amigos, Hillary has been on the blower to Kev.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/clinton-calls-rudd-during-asia-trip-20090222-8eln.html
At least Hewson had the guts to be leader.
No 187
I sympathise with your father’s views, but by the same token, Hewson’s article is also breathtakingly naive if it seeks to achieve Peter Costello’s resignation. Why on earth would Costello do such a slanderous article any justice by submitting to its demands? It’s none other than supercilious imbecility from Hewson.
No 189
Peruse dictionary.com
No 191
Yes but he is a failed leader. He lost an election and he ran a disastrous campaign. Hewson has nothing to be proud about which is why he is now whoring himself in the media to avoid the plain reality of his failed past.
Better to have tried and failed than refused to ever try.
No 194
Costello may well try yet.
Vera, those groupies are very liberal
Generic Person,
He may, but going on his past refusals, the odds are against it.
And if he does try, and fails, will you disparage him as you do Hewson?
And if you castigate Hewson for a faulty and failed campaign, why not Howard for 2007?
Costello is trying alright, just ask his former colleagues.
He had the guts to take on the opposition leader position straight after the Liberals lost the 1990 election. However gutless he is, that makes him more politically courageous than Peter Costello.
Has anyone thought to ask Julia Gillard (or Lady Thatcher if you prefer) whether it’s absolutely necessary to have balls to succeed in politics?
GP
As a Labor Party “hack’ I would love to see Mr Costello stay in parliament for as long as he desires. He has given us nothing but glee for at least the last 5-6 years.
He has kept media wallies employed writing stories about his beatification, the blessed member for Higgins is a gift that keeps giving.
But it does your party and the nation no good. Costello should stop the speculation by becoming leader or fading away into irrelevance.
Or maybe the good people of Higgins will do it for him at the next election.
No 197
I’ve made no reservations about the low calibre of the Liberal campaign in 2007.
Adam,
I think the answer is that with their existing God given equipment, they can get as many balls as they want.
I think Hewson was an OK bloke. Don’t forget, Howard and Costello supported his horrifically flawed GST and if either of them had led the Party at the time, they would have ended up like Hewson.
What about Howard? He claimed that disunity was death, yet was disloyal and tried to undermine every Leader he had worked under. Classic!
Note that you refer to it as “the Liberal campaign”, not Howard’s campaign. But when discussing their 1993 attempt, it was Hewson’s own defective campaign.
What was wrong with it?
No 205
Howard made the disastrous mistake of not committing to a full term. But he didn’t run around giving birthday cakes to everyone like Hewson.
I got a lecture about needing the greatest Treasurer in history back in the saddle to stop Rudd from spending our country into eternal debt.
Dio, does that make you a changeling????
Vera 190. well that gets rid of the coalition idea that the American’s wont ring Rudd.
He sort of dobbed himself in here too:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/07/19/1982541.htm
John Howard, Radio 5AA, July 2007
Now, I like Howard’s style less than most, but … might not Costello share some blame for that unworkable farce? He had the chance – many chances over many years – to challenge Howard, but always failed to get the sword out, as Keating put it.
Does anyone know the origin of the animosity between Hewson and Costello?
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-02/21/content_7499868.htm
Amigos, this one has no balls and definitely doesn’t smoke cigar. But she got power that Cossie is cravin’
Maybe he couldn’t get his sword out because he had no balls?
Darwin!!!
Darwin?
Costello does not share any blame for Howard’s decision to not commit to a full term.
Definitely no balls to be seen:
http://www.inkcinct.com.au/Web/CARTOONS/2008/2008-534–reading-Peter-Costello%27s-memoir.gif
Adam, natural selection!!!
Costello supported Downer as leader after Hewson lost the election.
Where’s Glen?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/21/2497857.htm
Adam 211
All I can find is Clinton Porteous and Steve Lewis describing Hewson as a
2 August 2008
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,24113967-421,00.html
Sorry, not much help.
If Costello had had the pecker he might have challenged and ousted Howard at any point/s of time before the election.
JB
All three of dad’s kids voted Green at the last election. Funnily enough, he told me that he was very proud to have such socially and environmentally responsible children.
I just spoke to him about Pyne. He said both his parents weren’t very political. One of his brothers is a Greenie and the other works for Macquarie Bank. He said Pyne has always loved the wheeling and dealing of politics. He has no idea why.
Who was Hewson’s Shadow Treasurer?
No 221
He didn’t because he never stood a chance at that time.
Adam,
I think the answer is that with their existing God given equipment, they can get as many balls as they want.
Maggie?……………………..Shudder
Any minute now Tanya Costello is going to put out a press statement testifying (!) to Peter’s genital rectitude.
At which time? He had plenty of opportunities. Seemed like every year he would do a little public grumbling about being hard done by Howard .. then slink back to the hammock to smirk and sulk.
I googled “peter costello leadership speculation”. 15,000 hits! The story of his life.
Of course, they are in her purse.
Correction. 70,000 hits!!
Costello has a narrow lead in The Daily Telegraph poll:
Should Costello challenge?
Yes 52%
No 48%
No 226
I must say that such discussion is beneath you Adam.
No 227
Cuppa, there may have been perceived opportunities, but these leadership challenges rarely happen unless the challenger is confident of victory. Challenging without a strong chance of victory is not courageous, but idiotic.
I think Costello was shadow finance minister under Hewson. So I guess it must have been J.W. Howard?
In Roman times, the swearing of an oath, which presumably could only be done by men, required the placing of the right hand over the testes. Hence the Latin term, subsequently adopted into the English language, to “testify”.
Keating doubted he would win a first challenge against Hawke, but he did so to set up the second successful challenge.
Adam if you can, make sure the ALP get Muskiemp’s advice in an earlier post – that it was the previous governments fault that people took out fixed rates on their mortgage, because Howard kept saying that interest rates would always be higher under a Labor government.
Costello has a long and well-documented history of never having what it takes to have a go. But what does that mean to the electorate? Not much of the machinations of political identities penetrates the awareness of Joe Voter, I’d suggest, but surely this simple fact of Costello’s inadequacy must resonate at least somewhat with many people.
Meaning that, should he ever have a go in the future – unlikely – he wouldn’t be taken seriously.
Besides which, he’s unelectable as it is, balls or no balls.
Care factor: 0
SNIP: Poor quality comment deleted – The Management.
GP, how far behing in the polls do you have to be before challenging? LOL
Howard was shadow IR minister under Hewson. Reith was shadow treasurer.
Dio, thanks for the info {my dammned curiosity–nosiness} for some reason i thought Pyne was a one only, i shudder at the thought of more than one of him, i’ve only seen a story about his mum and he seemed a mummy’s boy, sounds like the two siblings are well grounded anyway.
good for your dad rearing his kids to have minds of their own and being big enough to praise them for it, sounds like a wise man.
Absolute nonsense. Kevin Rudd only challenged for the leadership when he was pretty certain that he would win. That’s how the internal politics has always been. Keating was unique in that he was willing to sabotage his own leader from the back bench for as long as was necessary to achieve his own selfish ends.
At least he became Prime Minister, unlike Costello.
SNIP: Reference to poor quality deleted comment deleted – The Management.
SNIP: Reference to poor quality deleted comment deleted – The Management.
i admired Keating but didnt like him very much, you couldnt help but be awestruck by his wit and turn of phrase, it was his deliberate over the top spite that turned me off, i know that sounds ambiguous but there it is.
Generic Person,
“peter costello leadership speculation”
70,000 hits is what I call well-documented. Try it yourself, see how often he’s been cast as – how did someone put it – the world’s greatest hypothetical. He’s a joke.
Well said, GP at 243.
GP
Dad’s convinced that the voters have short memories when it comes to things that don’t affect them (like Cossie sitting on his hands while the Libs flounder). He’s pretty sure that voters will remember how well they had it economically under Howard-Costello, according to him. And if it goes bad under Rudd, he’s pretty sure Cossie’s in with a chance at the next election. Can’t say I agreed but lots of his Liberal buddies thought the same.
He has already given up the chance to be Liberal Party Leader in 1994, 1995, 2007, 2008. I could also add 2009, because after the time Turnbull had last week, if Costello wanted to be Liberal leader tomorrow he would win a challenge.
This of course excludes all the other years, 2004, 2005, 2006 when he should’ve challenged.
Keating won the “unwinnable” election – thus handing the PM-ship to Howard. Hewson would have beaten Hawke.
No 250
I think I’m starting to like your dad a lot!
No 251
He could have challenged at any time during the period of Coalition the government, but the fact of the matter is that he never commanded enough support in the party. You can go on and on and on about infantile matters concerning his testicular fortitude, but it won’t change the plain reality.
But they aren’t the ones who matter. It’s the opinions of the swing voters which are important. Do people think the smirk is popular with the swingers?
He also threw his hat in the ring with Latham and Beasley
I deliberately excluded all the years when Costello was in government to demonstrate that he has repeatedly shirked being leader, irrespective of government stability.
I didn’t, my diagnosis is long term spine injury dating back to at least 1994.
ALL Australian swinging voters know Peter Costello for one thing- strong economic management.
How did he become the Deputy Leader? Was it handed to him on a platter?
The problem with poor little baby Cossie, is that Keating (his role model by the way) had the marbles to challenge and set the precedent.
If a man is serious about becoming PM, given that his leader was getting flogged in the polls, and especially that he was promised the leadership in a deal made prior, he had to challenge. No excuses!
And with Costello as Finance Shadow, I think the answer lies somewhere in the machinations of the internal jostling around that time leading up to the 1993 election and just after.
If that is true (and there is some truth to it, let’s not forget Howie did win four elections based on economics), and the Liberals have lost their preferred economic manager standing (their only strong suit except dog-whistling) they only have one choice which is to dump Turnbull for Costello. They CANNOT win otherwise. They can’t beat Rudd in anything else.
Keating challenged when he didn’t have the numbers
Downer and Costello ran on a joint ticket leader / deputy leader in 1994.
Meh, he was a fairweather Treasurer, as Hewson was at pains to point out.
I can see Swannie quoting that article in Question Time this week!
No 265
Hewson’s banking company went broke, so he can hardly speak.
No, he failed to invest in our future, which is why the current government has had to spend money on upgrading schools as part of a stimulus package. This is of course something that should’ve already been done years ago.
A guy whom they have never wanted to be PM.
Costello is intellectually bankrupt, so that makes them to same.
I mean, look at Costello just last week, going all protectionist over Chinalco bailing out Rio-Tinto.
His political ideology is best described as opportunistic.
Diog. like son like father? wRONg.
Hewson’s banking company went broke, so he can hardly speak.
Again, at least Hewson had a go.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/a-masters-stroke/2007/05/05/1177788462755.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Jason Koutsoukis, The Age, 6 May 2007
Please save me from such specious nonsense. Kevin Rudd attempted to rewrite the political and economic history of the world of the past 30 years by equating conservatives and liberals alike with extreme capitalists!
Rudd is right in one crucial regard; centre-right parties over the last thirty years have advocated tax cuts at all costs, and in doing so have completely neglected social infrastructure.
The result in the U.S. was massive public debt, in Australia massive private debt.
After the shock loss in 1993 (and it was a big shock), they went through a period of soul-searching just like they should be having now. They decided there must be an end to the Peacock-Howard era of leadership squabbling, so they went for a “youth team” of Downer and Costello (then aged 42 and 37). Both had peformed quite well as shadow ministers. At the same time there was a clean-out of safe seats, with by-elections in Wentworth, Warringah and Mackellar bringing in Andrew Thomson (who?), Tony Abbott and Brownwyn Bishop (well it seemed like a good idea at the time).
ShowsOn, thanks for 264
Cuppa @ 271
Not reliable. That article is from The Age.
Bree, search further then. See if you can find reference to any economic training or running of a business.
No 271
LOL – Kevin Rudd has not run a business and has no formal economic training. Epic fail Cuppa.
There was also a by-election in Kooyong, of course (Georgiou replacing Peacock). There was some pressure on Howard to go as well, but he refused to budge (just like Costello now), not because he expected to be leader again, but because he wanted to be IR minister in a Liberal government and finally get to smash the unions, which was always the One Big Idea of his political career. Much to his surprise, Downer’s leadership proved a flop, Costello decided he was too green to be leader, and Howard found himself leader again, just as Keating’s star was waning. Talk about luck.
I believe Kevin Rudd did run a consultancy business while on the backbench. He and his wife also mortgaged the family home to fund the start-up of her employment company.
Weren’t you comparing Costello with Hewson?
No 277
Wayne Swan has not run a business and has no formal economic training.
Well, I don’t think Hockey has either. Nor Bishop. Your point?
No 280
He was a senior china consultant for KPMG, according to wikipedia. His wife ran her own company.
Rudd has not run a business. Simple fact.
The article to which you referred mentioned Peter Costello, John Howard and Kevin Rudd.
If, as you imply, running a business and having formal economic training qualifies one to be PM & Treasurer, then Rudd and Swan fail.
I pasted that in response to your 266 where, in comparing Hewson with Costello you said:
At least Hewson had a go – both in business and for the leadership. He’s got it over Costello on both counts.
I’m amused at your acrimony towards Hewson, who simply told the truth about Tip.
“Not run a company.” So what? I can’t think of a Treasurer who HAS run a company, not since Stanley Bruce anyway. This is the kind of thinking that led to the “Get John Elliott into Parliament” push in the 1980s. What a crash hot idea that would have turned out to be – a drunken, lecherous old crook as leader, all on the strength that he had “run a business.”
Hypothetical
(for the moment)
Lib and Labor are tied as preferred economic manager ATM. If Cossie took over as Opp Leader with Robb as Shadow Treasurer, would the Libs go ahead and by how much? I’m guessing by about 10%.
Interested in the discussion but I disagree with one of the premises:
Costello had about as much to do with our economic performance while he was treasurer as Howard was the cause of our success in cricket. Both talked about their favourite subjects a lot, but neither was the coach or the captain, just a commentator. Costello didn’t write the budgets, or create our terms of trade good fortune. The times the govt did override Treasury advice (eg the $10B Murray Darling Scheme) it was usually a stuff up. He didn’t make any massive errors delivering his reports, but neither could he have looked half the figure without Treasury advising him. He can’t do it now, can he? Treasury made Costello look good, which is a tribute to their skill.
For a discussion on this topic, see
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/22/hewson-hits-the-mark/
http://www.smh.com.au/national/mp-blackmail-attempt-on-secret-gay-sex-film-20090221-8e8z.html
Explosive stuff!!!
Is there any truth to the idea that the conservatives ran dead last election so that they could avoid the political fallout of the GFC?
The worrying thing (for the Libs) is that this meme has be found in their rusted-ons.
So hold your own side by the same standards. Your just obfuscating.
The acrimony arises out of my disdain for his inappropriate outburst. Hewson does not even stand by his own principles – if he cared about the party, he would not publicly castigate Costello so as to fuel even more speculation and commentary as to the internal workings of the Liberal Party.
Hewson is, of course, aware of this but he’s doing it for the media attention given that many of his other ventures have failed. What he said is untruthful and slanderous.
Occupations of Coalition Treasurers since 1949:
Arthur Fadden 1949-58 Accountant
Harold Holt 1958-66 Lawyer
Bill McMahon 1966-69 Lawyer
Les Bury 1969-71 Bank economist
Bill Snedden 1971-72 Lawyer
Phil Lynch 1975-77 Management consultant
John Howard 1977-83 Lawyer
Peter Costello 1996-2007 Lawyer
Total business experience: zero
Diogenes @ 286
With Costello as leader, the Coalition’s preffered economic manager rating will be 20-30% higher than what it is now. If we go into recession and Costello is leader, it will be like 70% Coalition, 30% Labor.
[For a discussion on this topic, see
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/22/hewson-hits-the-mark/
Surprise, surprise, Mr Quiggin is one of those Rudd-revered social-democrat types, who of course have obligatory disgust for the Liberal Party.
You are just blinkered because Hewson is helping the Liberal party by telling it to move on from a failed Treasurer who never had the guts to be leader.
in the longer term, the Liberal Party needs to move on from Costello. His failed policies based around wasting billions from the mining boom didn’t work during the Howard government and won’t work during a global recession.
GP 281
From Wikipedia:
“Swan was born and educated in Nambour, Queensland. He won a Commonwealth scholarship to study public administration[1] at the University of Queensland, becoming a lecturer in the Department of Management at the Queensland Institute of Technology before entering politics.”
I don’t know what Swan did his undergraduate degree in but he must have done some economics subjects to complete a degree in public administration, let alone lecture in it. I first met Swan in the late 80s and he clearly had a grasp of economic concepts then. Therefore I think the second half of your comment 281 must be incorrect.
No 291
Adam, please conduct an analysis of Labor treasurers/PMs on their relevant training and business experience.
Why wouldn’t you if you opposed the Liberal party’s excuse for an ideology?
And a few nights ago you were linking to blogs that accused the global financial crisis of being a fascist conspiracy. At least Quiggin can form coherent arguments, even if you ultimately disagree with them.
Obfuscating nothing. I’m making nothing obscure. I showed how your negative appraisal of Hewson in comparison to Costello fails when Costello’s meagre record is held up for scrutiny by the same standard as you used.
Which part of what Hewson said was untruthful? No balls? Lazy? Nothing without Treasury? Indulgent memoirs?
Paul Keating worked for his dad’s concrete company. That’s more small business experience than Costello.
GP 293
Prof. Quiggan openly acknowledges he is a left wing economist but he is also a Federation Fellow in Economics at UQ, (awarded under the Howard government). He knows what he is talking about.
And managed a RocknRoll Band who managed to record a couple of singles.
AiC 291 – geez what a sad list of names
Plus he got “on the cover of Rolling Stone”!
No 300
So does Mr Costello.
Yep – Not sure if Costello would beat Rudd, but I’m convinced MT can’t. Quite a surprised really, I thought MT would be better at the job.
Hewson is just a bitter and twisted man- I can say no more really. Perhaps its due to his own failure as leader. Janet Albrechtsen cleaned him up really well tonight anyway.
GP
Costello knows what treasury told him; the other guy has a PhD and 20 years of research experience. No comparison. The Liberals have been a party of lawyers who think they know everything for a long time. Scratch below the surface and you soon find they don’t. Just ask Julie Bishop.
Newspoll out this Tuesday – rumour says that Rudd’s numbers are going to skyrocket up!
Spam
Rudd wins on Health, Education, Social Justice, Climate Change, IR.
He gets at least a draw on Defence, Foreign Affairs, Terrorism, Border Protection.
If the Libs can’t win Economic Manager, they can’t possibly win IMO.
And Costello isn’t? He is more than happy for the party to die, if it means they’ll ask him to lead (on bended bloody knees).
All because they hurt his feelings back in 2006
The Libs win on whining!
Bree: typical of your lot, shoot the messenger when he doesn’t stick to the script!
I’m looking forward to the next anti Hewson spray from that oaf Ackerman, Alan Jones, Neil Mitchell etc.
Dio, I agree (isn’t that what I said?)
This is funny, because Labor trailed in these when in opposition. But as soon as the opposition becomes the government, they seem to automatically acquire authority on these issues.
She didn’t refute any of his points, all she did was say he does have balls, becasue I say he does, so stop being a girl Hewson.
Hewson responds, “Please stop with the limp lettuce Janet…”
I wonder when the Liberals will stop trying to search for the Messiah, and realise that they are in opposition & they need to work bloody hard to get back into government?
Costello ain’t the answer to their problems!
No 312
Shoot the messenger? What rubbish. Hewson is as bitter and twisted as Keating and Latham.
He’s just calling it as he sees it. I don’t understand why you have such a problem with it.
If I had Keating’s record as Treasurer and P.M. I’d never shut up about it either. It took a centre-left party to give Australia a substantially market based economy, who would’ve thunk it.
No 315
Hewson didn’t make any valid points – he simply spewed forth plenty of bile and vitriol.
Labour treasurers since 1941:
Ben Chifley 1941-49 Engine driver, union official, self-taught taxation expert. Member of the Royal Commission on Banking
Frank Crean 1972-74 Accountant, economics degree
Jim Cairns 1974-75 PhD in economics, economics lecturer
Bill Hayden 1975 Police officer. Gained economics degree while in parliament
Paul Keating 1983-91 no degree, union employee, MP at 25
John Kerin 1991 Farmer, economics degree, reasecher at Bureau of Agricultural Economics
Ralph Willis: 1991-93 Commerce degree, ACTU research officer
Wayne Swan 2007 BA Hons, lecturer, policy analyst, party official
Latham maybe, but PJK doesn’t shoot down his own side (John Roberston excepted!).
In 2007 his criticisms of Rudd and Gillard were mannered and spot on.
Too long in emotional and political hock to a Rattus nonveritas perhaps?
AiC – you missed John Dawkins
317 – GP
I agree, silly statement@ 312
Although I would add Fraser to your list and I suspect Howard(in a few years).
I think they all get like that after a awhile
I have a problem when Mr Hewson says this:
….just after he has launched a most vicious attack on one of the party’s most accomplished members, thereby only fuelling more and more damage to the party for whose interests he purports to be protecting.
So I did – the man who cost us government with his 1993 horror budget. He had degrees in economics and agriculture, since his mother was a Lee Steere and he was expected to go on the land! Pity he didn’t.
Raplh Willis. I despise that man to this very day!
No 324
Fraser’s problem is not that he has become bitter, it is that he became a left wing trot.
because……?
Robertson deserves it (still).
Economics degree.
Costello refused to take up Leader of the Opposition for a few reasons. One was to spite Howard who ‘gifted’ it to him election eve, after being beaten. To pay back years of ill feeling. And one gets the feeling Costello would like to do a bit o LNP destruction as spiteful pay back his opponents. Not that they don’t deserve it since the let Howard and wife turn the LNP and Government into their personal possession.
Also after so many years in parliament and in Government three years in Opposition with a small chance of winning would seem a pretty unattractive prospect. I don’t think after what he has had that 6 years in Opposition would interest Costello. I’m pretty sure Costello had it in his mind to retire sometime after the election but things haven’t worked out the way he expected.
Personally I don’t think Costello has the personal energy or drive left to want to go through what it takes to lead the Opposition then fight and election. There is precious little in it for him – except the likelihood of failure. Though I do think he has not bones about making life difficult for all the people he doesn’t like.
As for the Liberal Party. What are their beliefs anyway? Self interest ‘for all’ is about it. The LNP is the party of power for its own sake. And is why they have little chance of winning, they are not in it for the service of the country.
Probably a little self destruction is what they really need, and the Murdoch press should be hastening the process along so they can spruik their team at a 2013 election.
Just as it did to Beazley in 1996, but he took it on because it was his duty to the party and the labour movement and he knew there was no-one else with his standing. That’s the difference between Beazley and Costello, but also the difference between Labor and Liberal.
Just saw this in Dawkin’s wiki entry:
Have to say I have zero recollection of them being in August… funny how you get used to something.
Yes the budget always used to be in the first week of the spring sittings. Crean wanted to move it as well, but couldn’t get it through Cabinet (nor much else).
What a sad gap of years. Quite glad I was born in 72!
C’mon now, don’t you start getting silly
I also think people over estimate the leadership abilities of Costello and as politician. A decade of Treasury notes has been much of his work. Very little imagination and seems to have hardly had anything to say on any issue over that time. I am not sure how Costello would manage party conflict, or the heat and attention from the media in the manner that Rudd copped it during the last campaign.
I think Costello was really found out during the last election campaign. His performance before the media was fairly tame and his performance in the debate with Swan was unacceptable poor, for a 11 year Treasurer. The myth is larger than the man.
It being a school night, I must depart. No doubt I’ll find you all here tomorrow still saying the same things over and over again.
Dio – re: 305/309/313
I still don’t understand what happened there?
338 –
Gary Bruce @ 26
Preferencing Labor or preferencing Liberal aren’t the only two options – the Greens could run split or open tickets across the board. Of course, I say this with no intimate (or even passing) knowledge of what anyone is thinking…
Or (getting my head out of my Victorian-centric arse and actually reading the article) they could instead recommend a vote that exhausts before it gets to the major parties…
Grog @333
We still had August budgets when I first worked in the Public Circus. It was a nightmare. All new initiatives and many projects went ‘on hold’ for the first three months of the financial year. It was even worse for NGOs relying on Government funding.
“Libs link to Mafia visa inquiry”
http://www.smh.com.au/national/libs-link-to-mafia-visa-inquiry-20090222-8er5.html
FEDERAL police have investigated claims that Mafia-linked businessmen donated about $100,000 to the Liberal Party in return for helping to keep an alleged Mafia figure in Australia.
Investigators were told a Liberal Party insider had revealed the party was to receive the money from businessmen in return for helping to get a visa for the alleged criminal, Francesco Madafferi, who faces drug trafficking charges after being arrested last August over the world’s largest ecstasy bust.
And that’s the problem with you New Right Liberals. You think there are only two views. Your hard-right views on economic/social/moral issues, or socialism en masse.
Get over yourself.
First Hewson, now Downer:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25092099-601,00.html
I expect G.P. to tell Downer to shut up.
Dolly puts his oar in
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25091567-5006784,00.html
Showson bugger! beat me by thaaat much
GP will probably tell Dolly to get back in to his fishnets.
Turnbull wants a tougher ETS
ooo the drys won’t like that
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25092174-601,00.html
In her latest attempt at ensuring that the Liberals remain a unstable, disunited and, unelectable rabble, JA at the oz writes:
“in the interests of the party, the ongoing duel between the current Liberal leader and the former Treasurer needs to be dealt with behind closed doors.”
Why is it that some people never learn. If the Libs leadership problems aren’t dealt with openly and “seen to be done” then no-one out in voter-land will believe it has been dealt with and the media will jump on ANYTHING to try and resurrect it. The Costello / Turnbull thing will only be over when one or other of them leaves parliament and it needs to be over before they can rebuild.
Still, if the Libs are collectively too stupid to do what they have to, to become competitive again (too many to’s here!!) then they deserve to be in opposition for a long time.
He probably realises his leadership is dead in the water, so he might as well try and wedge Labor on issues because it won’t matter when another leader comes along and changes policies.
Turnbull is not going to win votes by attacking the government from the left. This strategy is a dud.
It makes perfect sense! It is a continuation of his pro-unemployment policy, that started with rejecting the stimulus package.
A funny aside.
Rudy Giuliani’s Answer to Everything:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSk4SUpWVuY
Harry Hutton on Tony Blair:
Well I think Turnbull has got the strategy right on this one. He won’t get hit like he did with the simpac. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in the Senate with the likes of Fielding, Xenophon and the Greens.
However attacking the Govt from the left on this issue wont hurt the government. It can say it can and will adopt the larger target in terms of it’s original plan and play it as economically responsible which, will certainly hit the right chords with the public who are now no doubt obsessing over the GFC.
Now I know that people should put the well being of the planet before self interest but the reality is ( as stated when the Govt first revealed its plan ) that the economy and jobs is what everything is all about in people’s hearts and minds now, as much as they would like to help the future world and as much as it will miff a great number of observers.
And if the Government wants to risk it’s arm it can go for a stronger plan with the LNP support one imagines now. It will be interesting to see what games are played – especially since the chief Liberal climate change denialist is in the Senate.
No comment
What Costello and Prince Charles have in common – by Joe Hockey
Now stop it!, I’m serious – stop laughing!… the SMH says it’s true!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/what-costello-and-prince-charles-have-in-common–by-joe-hockey-20090222-8erf.html
OK- I think the jet-lag is almost done with. Ready for sleeps am I
As you good people rise to begin another week and some of you early in your day take a peak at PB, if you thought 358 wasa strange way to start the week… wait!….there’s more!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25091504-33435,00.html
Hockey is dumb, I thought he had some political sense.
He is acknowledging that Costello is the leader in waiting.
#358 – yes, i did anticipate that Cossie will be the PM 2031:
http://sean-henry.us/802/images/grace.jpg
After Rudd, Rudd, Rudd, Gillard, Gillard, Gillard, Mickey Mouse, Minnie Mouse, then Cossie. All we need now is Tanya coming out with her missing tampon story. She apparently told her Maj at a function and HM was not impressed at all:
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2006/03/15/queen_wideweb__470×284,0.jpg
Have you noticed now Turnbull is concentrating on climate change instead of the economy. Does anyone think that Turnbull can win an election on climate change?
I’m assuming the tactic is to tie climate change policy into economic policy.
Generic Person
Posted Monday, February 23, 2009 at 1:14 am | Permalink
So the right is for having us fry, the left saving the planet.. Ummmm, voting choice seems pretty easy to me.
No; Fraser’s problem is the party has been taken over by right wing nutters and as a result become unelectable.
Why are higher targets an indication of how “left” one is or isn’t?
The EU has higher targets than us but their mainly Christian Democrats.
*they’re.
The left have typically been the cheerleaders for higher targets, irrespective of the associated job destruction.
I think Turnbull should prosecute a case for a carbon tax – it gives him a superior point of differentiation and it is much simpler than the contorted ETS the government intends to introduce.
359 bizarre article by Milne – pretty much confirms that (wait for it…) there are (you’re not going to believe this…) factions in the ALP!! (yes I know, I don’t believe it either)…
Top journalism Milne…
Tell that to Joe Hockey, who yesterday criticised the Government’s targets for being too low on Insiders. Surely this means the Coalition wants higher targets.
Generally the NYC way to deal with anything is put 40odd bullets in it,interesting story about various people and the Liberals,I hope some one has the gut to follow up on this in both partys,if it is true the fallout will be vey interesting in deed,
Bree 362 – No I agree thats crazy. Nobody will believe they would act on it.
Here is a story that should ensure that the Liberals will not be seen as the party that will keep the streets safe for quite some time:
http://www.smh.com.au/national/libs-link-to-mafia-visa-inquiry-20090222-8er5.html
It makes it all the more curious that Vanstone is now Ambasador to Italy. She should be recalled to account for her actions.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/libs-link-to-mafia-visa-inquiry-20090222-8er5.html
Liberal Party links to the Mafia?
You can always tell when someone is making a crap argument because they resort to lying to make it, as Penny Wong does here. Evidently we are all stupid for pointing out that the ETS means that households cutting their emissions just means that industry are allowed to burn more coal.
And decreasing household emissions help us meet our targets, presumably because it means someone is actually doing something, even if it isn’t industry because we certainly wouldn’t want to ask them to do anything.
Because we made this decision, it must be right!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25091503-7583,00.html
http://business.smh.com.au/business/rudd-needs-courage-to-defuse-timebomb-20090222-8env.html?page=-1
never mind the width, just feel the quality. So much for for the “Superior Economic Manager” tag. Now is a shattered myth and like the misty fog in the morning sun, it is disappearing right before our eyes.
What’s next? The “”Superior Environment Manager”? Both starts with an E.
Yes, Ruddster shows us your balls!!!!
DAVID WALSH
“Ron, this is more tea leaf reading than it is evidence gathering
……………………..All my supposition of course”
David , “your supposition” ? is presumably coffee leaf reading
Now what you asked was
“GG, if you can present us with a single scrap of evidence that Costello is interested in being the person who leads the Liberal Party to defeat at the next general election, I’d love to see it”
There ar 2 parts to that I supplied the 3 clear indicators of Costello intersted in Leadership of Libs
1/ clear undermining of Turnbbull th current Leader , indicatd by th leak of th turnbull offer to costelo of Shadow Tresurer (as said it does not matter if leak cam from costello suporters or from turnbull suporters …either way it was designed to damege or th other , a traditional methiod used when 2 guys ar at ‘war’ when in oppositin , and
2/ th “Joe was my Junior Minister” was no slip , copstello is a very measred answerer to jouno’s , another indicator , and
3/ clear undermining of Malcom Turnbull th curent Leader thru a clear pre emptive public attempt by Hewson (given point 1/ specificaly in th timing) of Hewson’s assault to pre empt Costello by trying to destroy his credability….despite Hewson’s 1994 grudge th public attack was so savage , and so wide ranging of Costeel’os deficeincys that its motive indicatesa Party politcal attack rather than a personel one (and Hewson’s had 14 months to do this & chose now)
4/ a clear undemining of Turnbull by mere fact Costello refuses to sit on Shadow front bench Costello may hav got away with a ‘grace’ first 6 months to hav a ‘rest’ during Nelson’s leadershp time , but th use by date of that week excuse is long gone both in timing , his ability and Libs poor polls neededing any credability to help th Party overall
So David i thought I’d made a case for clear Costello interset in th Leadership Costello’s timing oif th undermining has been set by ‘event’ not him , so he’s seized them as rose W
What I aslo said is history shows Costeloo wants Leadership on a plate , he’s got to ticker to take it with blod on floor
You also ask why he didn’t take it either in Nov 2007 (reason it was a lame duck job then , a definite honeymoon after 13 years for Rudd to come so no benefit to him , all donside or Sept 2008 (reason is tunbull had/has residual internal suport as he’s saleable in party eyes , not too close to Howard legicy , abit pro CC ie again casting howard off & Turnbull & this suport needed to be destroid first , and then job on a plate)
All costello has done show clear Leadership intrest , and for it to be given on a plate What I did not addrss is what costello wuld decide if then it was offered , and you assumed I had , whereas you hav actualy speculated Well I did not do so because there seems to be a belief here Costello is not intrested , and i think abov indicates th reverse…and that was point of my post and to address that same point I saw in your post…plus your view from that post Labor wuld win th 2010 electon (and agree with a Labor very likely win)
Having gradulay diminishing Turnbull , costello will watch polls…..and if at time of T%urnbull’s weakest future point , th Polls still show such a likely Laboer win , then I agree with you he’ll decline/’not chalenge’ ….and Cosstelo instead will then use his curent lame excuse “I did say I’m not intersted in th Leedership”
(whilst leaving completely unsaid…. th Howard line successfully used for a decade to block Costello being….”but I will stay (& with costello “I ‘ll take it) in th intersts of th Party”)
That i feel idss costello’s game plan , keeping his options open , and concurrentley underming Turnbull , and concurently hoping econamy collapses & Polls swing more for th Libs …in practise I believe actualy its th last point his plan will fail on , resulting in Costello just serving out his term…frustrated…and also unsmirky
Dio 374
Agreed; I am quite dissappinted in the way Wong is handling this. John Quiggan has a discussion of the effects on the ETS and it is quite clear that under the proposed ETS household reductions will allow industry to pollute more. If this continues our scheme will be no more effective than Europe’s tokenistic one. People favouring action on CC are concerned. Consideration now is that alternatives such as straight carbon taxes and investment of the proceeds in alternative energy and lower emission infrastructure may be better than a failed ETS.
From WA Today (online sister to The Age) joining in the party -
That was a bizarre outburst from Hewson. The open-letter form of his latest contribution looks as though he’s made it a personal ambition to get rid of Costello. It just seems out of proportion coming from someone who moved on from politics long ago and has popped up with commentary only now and then. It’s as though he’s been brooding about Costello for some time and has now snapped. A 3rd person opinion piece would have been more appropriate.
Except that the 5% reduction is not fixed. Should households reduce emissions, the ‘cap’ can be reduced.
Dario
But will it be reduced?
Wong also says an ETS will give business more certainty. The guy from the CIS on triple J said the opposite. A carbon tax lets business work out exactly where they will be. Of course, a carbon tax scheme would need the wisdom of Solomon to choose the exact amount to lead to the target reduction. I’m not saying it should be an ETS or a Carbon Tax, but Wong is being disingenuous when she wrote that article.
It has already been announced as a sliding scale. Business knows this. Should households do the right thing and reduce emissions then the Government will have a clear ‘out’ to increase the rate. We can all sit here and try and guess what will happen, but the option to raise the rate is there, so households reducing emissions does not automatically mean polluters get away scot free.
A carbon tax would be even worse because there is no cap, and thus no guarantee it would achieve what it would be intended to do
As is just about anyone opening their mouths on the subject quite frankly, as there are so many different opinions
Dario
Here is a link to the discussion at Quiggan’s blog. He makes the point that
“In the absence of a corresponding lowering of the aggregate emissions target, the package will have no effect at all on emissions.”
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2009/02/11/insulation-and-emissions/
There is a simple solution – put a corresponding reduction into the target in the ETS; then there is no problem. Saying that it is a sliding scale is irrelevant – the initial maximum doesn’t allow for this, so the impact is negative until that sliding scale is specified and reduced accordingly.
Penny Wong could come out and say they will increase the target if households reduce their emissions. She could be asked the question whether she will by a journalist. But we all know she won’t commit to anything. Until she does so, the $5B in pink batts just looks like a subsidy to the insulation industry and further compensation for industry to do even less.
BTW The Liberals must have done polling to come up with this position (not that we know exactly what it is). They must have detected quite a lot of room to move on the “left” of Rudd. I’m assuming they aren’t completely stupid.
Did the Ruddster mislead parliament? :0
In further devastating news for the Libs, economists see Australia avoiding a recession.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25093206-5005961,00.html
I have never argued that point. Quite clearly though, the cap CAN be lowered, so any reduction in emissions by any party whether it be households, industry or other is not automatically giving a free reign to other parties. Your argument rests on the basis that the government will not lower the cap. Mine rests on the basis that it can. Both are possible, and neither is certain.
sorry, just a diversion:
Sophia Loren is still alive? and looking great!!!!
Notice how the article opens with “AUSTRALIA may get lucky and avoid a recession in 2009…”
I would have thought that if we avoid a recession it will be due to the quick and decisive action taken by the Federal Government. I’m sure that if we do slip into a temporary recession it will be the fault of the Feds.
#385
If he meant that emissions from energy use in homes will be reduced by 49 million tonnes and it’s a reasonable figure then I don’t think he’s misled parliament.
The ABC reports that Sky News has reported that Anna Bligh is visiting the QLD governor.
Ron, my original assertion was that it’s not a given that Costello wants the job of Opposition Leader between now and the next election. You’ve gone from trying to rebut that statement to now conceding that it might well be the case. Goodness me – do you just enjoy arguing for the sake of it?
There are some sneaky arguments here by arch CC skeptic along with Dio and Socrates about the ETS.
The property or complaint that they have is just a simple property of setting a target: it has nothing to do with an ETS (versus any other system) or even this particular proposed CPRS.
If you set a target for a group to achieve something additive and some people try really hard then others don’t have to try so hard.
Eg if industry cuts emissions by a lot then houselholds don’t have to by so much.
Any system with a traget will have that problem.
What’s the solution?? Well, as Dario points out you just have to be more ambitious with the targets as you go and you find out that you are achieving them easily.
The great advantage of an ETS is that targets are set for short periods ahead and have immediate predicatble impacts on the emissions achieved.
Bligh off to Government House…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25093226-601,00.html
cue apologies to the Courier Mail?
GG and Steve
That will be a fantastic outcome and great vindication of government policy if its the case. A great Dorothy Dixer would be “what is Australia’s GDP growth rate this year and how does it compare with other OECD countries?” or “how does the rate of job creation adn loss in Australia compare with the UK, Canada and the US?”
Another important point about economic slowdowns is that they are not uniform. In the last recession in the early 90s not every region in the country was in decline. Victoria and South Australia were disastrous but growth areas of Queensland were still OK. Conversely this time mineral export stats WA and QLD will suffer most, while here in SA I’d say we are neutral now and will growing economically if BHPB goes ahead with ODX.
Dr Good
I agree and am not against an ETS in principle. I would like to see such reductions announced. But at present this particular ETS has not had any such reductions announced. Hence in combination with exemptions and compensation to existing heavy polluters and a reduction in household emissions, industry CAN increase pollution under this ETS. As long as the target stays at a joke figure llike a 5% reduction, these sort of perverse outcomes are posisble. My criticism stands until a tougher target is announced.
Adam in Canberra, those two posts on the backgrounds of Labor and Liberal treasurers are remarkable. Do you know if any of the lawyers on the Liberal side had studied economics at university?
Someone with a law/commerce degree who had only worked as a lawyer is a lot more credible as treasurer than someone who never did any economics subjects and came to the job cold because it was seen as the most powerful position short of leader.
Qld election for 21st March.
There are a few bludgers here with a lot of egg on their faces.
And as for Ms Bligh, what a lot of porkie pies from her recently.
Dr Good
Nice to see you back.
I’m very sceptical about Rudd going much on CC. As it stands the $4B in pink batts will make NO change in our carbon emissions. Until Rudd/Wong incease the target (laughs and shakes his head) that is the case. Rudd was wrong when he said the insulation package would reduce CO2 emissions by 50M tons.
David,
Strategically and personally, Costello might not want the leadership before the next election. In reality however, it might be thrust upon him by the Messiah chasers in the Liberal Party.
Interesting about Qld and agree with comments on Anna Bligh. I’m still not so sure about apologising to the Courier Mail – they have been saying this for a long time.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day
I must admit I didn’t think Bligh would go to an early election. Strange decision really. What advantage is there for her going early?
Some interesting comments coming in right now to the ABC news site on the Costello – Hewson story.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/23/2498577.htm
The budget is likely to get worse as time goes on I assume…
I see a couple of negatives for Bligh though. The floods and the voters distain and distrust of early elections.
Premier Anna Bligh guarantees full-run government term
January 22, 2009 12:20pm
QUEENSLAND Premier Anna Bligh, fresh back from holidays, has ruled out going to the polls next month saying she still intends to run the full-term. On her first day back to work today Ms Bligh said job creation and stability, not the election due by September, were at the forefront of her mind. She toured the Moranbah North coal mine to announce the fast-tracking of funding for job creation projects in central Queensland. “I intend to run full-term. I believe it is absolutely critical that we provide political and economic stability,” she said.
Note the careful use of the word “intend”. The News Ltd headline does not accurately reflect what she actually said.
So it’s no longer “absolutely critical” to provide “political and economic stability” after all. Pathetic lies.
John Hewson for me was the one decent liberal that I haven’t minded. Good on him for speaking his mind. And… he has done nothing for the people of Higgins, so fark off Cossie you ugly muppet!
But alas he will look at the numbers for the election, no chance = no stance, he will then return to the front bench next term and take the leadership half way in. If it doesn’t play out this way I’ll eat my hat!
We need a high flying candidate in Higgs to trim down his lead further, although it will bounce back when he becomes leader.
Next year they’re going to downsize the movie “Australia” into “New Zealand” due to FGC. Ooouch but love it.
It would be worth noting that quite a few of the forms rejected initially in Tangney weren’t Muslims.
FGC = GFC
Just seen Ackerman on Skynews talking about “The Borg”. Was asked by interviewer if Borg will make a good premier. Ackers, sideswiped the question and said he has lots of experience. This will be the 3rd time Springborg will have run and is a thick as two planks. In this case “The Borg” acts exactly like he sounds.
412 whoops wrong thread
I must admit, regardless of the exact words Blighh used, it starts to look like Howard’s pedantic distinctions over the wording promises made and broken. The point is, the only logical reason to go early is if you believe the news will get worse. That isn’t a good look.
Cuppa-403 i noticed Bree had her say there lol.
I’d hardly call the date of an election a broken promise, i can’t think of one political leader that hasn’t kept the opposition guessing on an upcoming election date. It’s the advantage of being the govt.
David Walsh
Posted Monday, February 23, 2009 at 11:51 am | Permalink
“Ron, my original assertion was that it’s not a given that Costello wants the job of Opposition Leader between now and the next election”
David thats where you contiue to miss th subtle politcal point , and then misrepresented what I said I suplied numerous poltcal indicators Costello himself/henchmen ar undermining Turnbul
Th purpose is not for Costello to take Leedership of Liberal party at all Purpose is dramatiicaly weaken Tunbull to allow Costello an option of taking th Leadership should econamy tank and Polls start a reasonablee swing to th Libs
Should Polls not swing ie meaning a likely strong Laboer win , then Costello will not consder putting th last knives into Turnbull to finiash him off , and instead allow Turnbull to continue as Liberal Leeder & lose th next election
Should however GFC etc cause econamy to tank , huge unemployemnt result and a reasonable Polls swing to th Liberals Polls….Costello can decide whether an electon is winable & strike turnbull down which he’d do easily now that turnbull is politcl diminshed
That is point you hav overlooked Costelo’s strategy risks NOTHING , as usual
What costello is creating is th opprotiunity to hav an option almost at his discretion subject to Polls …and even if favourable an option to calculate risk reward …and probably not prepared to over risk To sugest this demomstrated undermining of turnbull that I listed , has no politcal object misses th key…particularly given consrvative wing is discredied by Howards legicy and hav no viable leader waiting
The LNP needs to win 22 seats in a House of 89, which requires a 2PP swing of over 8%, and that swing has to happen in Brisbane, not in the bush. Does anyone seriously think this is possible with a proved Nat dud like Springborg in change?
Adam
No – I think that is where Bligh must attack. At first I thought the timing of this was quite bad, with the recent downgrading of the State’s finances to AA+. But the flip side of that is that it underscores the need for a competent manager. Do the NatLibs have anyone who can command credibility in running the state?
Adam
Probably not. Which begs the question “Why did she go early when she said she wouldn’t?”. She must know something pretty awful about the Budget, IMHO.
From under which rock does the National Party recruit its representatives?
Today’s Wagga Daily Advertiser carried a claim by Member for Riverina Kay Hull that Labor is responsible for the looming loss of a NSW electorate, possibly her own rural electorate, under the redistribution process. Hull states: “If these reports are true it just reiterates the fact that Labor looks after the cities and leaves rural and regional Australia to fend for itself”.
By applying Mrs Hull’s fallacious reasoning, the abolishment of the rurally-based National Party-held Division of Gwydir in 2007 was because the previous Howard-led Liberal-National Coalition government governed for the cities and not the bush. D’oh!
Crawl back under that rock, Kay.
She can frame it by saying that she wants to confirm with the electorate that they have the confidence to guide Queensland through these economic times.
It’d be the only way to really frame it without it looking awful.
Ron @ 417.
Good post, I think you are pretty close to being on the money there.
Vera @ 416,
If you remember, Howard played the same trick but was waiting for the last possible minute in the vain hope that the polls might turn.
Mumble does Adam.
http://mumble.com.au/
Looks like that’s exactly what she’s doing
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25093756-29277,00.html
#425
She shouldn’t have mentioned her political interests at all, even as a denial. No one will believe that.
Under these economic circumstances I think Bligh will get away with that argument. It sounds plausible, if not the real reason.
Well, way up the top there there was a discussion between Adam, BH and BB regarding the republic referendum and Turnbull being played off a break by Howard.
However, the proposal had to get through parliament first before it could be put to referendum. No direct election model or close variant thereof was likely to get through parliament on Howard’s watch. “Passionately opposed” I think were the words Howard use at the time.
426 triton – So if asked directly she should say “No Comment”? That would go down well.
Speaking of Treasurer qualifications – Qld’s current Labor one is Andrew Fraser. His biography says:
“Mr Fraser is a graduate of Griffith University with degrees in Commerce and Law. He graduated with first class honours and received the University Medal for academic excellence.”
Borg will have fun debating finance with him. ROTFL
Hey fellow bludgers. I just ran into an ex Liberal staffer at the shops. She reckons that it’s better to not run, than run in a seat you can’t win in an election. I thought that if you ran a good campaign youn could get further recognition and later a better opportunity. She said that you will be associated with losing. What’s everyone else’s view?
From Bligh’s comments about why she’s calling an early election.
From Bligh’s comments about why she wouldn’t call an early election.
Has a politician ever been so transparently full of sh1t?
I’d like to know what process of logic Mumble uses to come to that prediction. It requires several hundred thousand people in Brisbane to decide that Springborg would make a better Premier than Bligh, and I just can’s see that happening.
And while I’m at it, isn’t going to look pretty crap having politicians running around kissing babies and making false promises when they should be looking after the people who are under water. Shouldn’t Bligh be concentrating on the half of the state in flood, rather than optimising her political future. Do they have to swim to the ballot booth?
I just can’s see that happening” = I just can’t see that happening”
Adam, the tyranny of distance.
#429 GB
No, I’m just saying that she shouldn’t volunteer it in a statement about why she called an election. That statement, and that part in particular, could appear prominently in tomorrow’s QLD papers and showed on the TV news. Don’t mention your political interests more than you have to.
Heat Ledger wins!
#437
Well, re-reading the post maybe it was an answer rather than a volunteered statement.
We should be able to come up with some good campaign slogans for a politician nicknamed “the Borg”. How about:
“policy is irrelevant, vote Borg”
“resistance is futile, vote Borg!”
“the Liberals have been assimilated”
“you will be assimilated, vote Borg”
“the collective is the Pinneapple Party, vote Borg!”
“democracy is weakness, serve the collective, vote Borg”
I think this is going to happen. There will be big to massive swings to the LNP in rural QLD, and next to no swing in SE QLD, which means Labor will be returned with a 10 – 15 seat majority:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/calculator/?swing=region&state=-7.9&seq=0®=-10&retiringfactor=1
Gee diogenes your dad would be proud of you:) all these anti Labor posts, so far today you say Rudd Wong and Bligh are all liars… anyone else you want to add to the list?
I’d say that’s crap. Did not Rudd lose at his first attempt at Griffith?
I think all this outrage about politicians being cagey about when they are going to to the polls is a bit overblown. All premiers of all parties play this game. Can anyone produce a quote of Bligh saying flatly “I will not call an election before September”? I’d be surprised if they can. In the quote I gave above, she was careful to use the word “intend”, and everyone familiar with politics knew what that meant. It meant “I am keeping my options open.”
centaur009 @ 431,
It didn’t do Kevin Rudd much harm. He lost first time around and is now PM of the country!
Yes, and Turnbull had to buy a safe seat.
thank’s all. But what about changing seats too?
Same here, because all local, state, territory, and federal government elections should be on the same day every four years.
vera
You could try to refute the posts rather than bringing up my dear old dad.
It’s irrelevant to me which side makes the argument. If it’s a lie, I’m going to point it out.
Richie Benaud would be proud!
I se why Falcone is your hero, Dio
For those who still like to imagine Costello was a great treeasurer, Ross Gittins has an interesting comment on the difficulty in balancing the budget in future, not thanks to the stimulus, but Howard’s silly tax cuts for the rich:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/rudd-needs-courage-to-defuse-timebomb-20090222-8env.html?page=-1
This is a nice quote for Bree:
“This is the budget time-bomb John Howard and Peter Costello left for their Labor successors. Not quite the good budget managers they keep telling us they were.
But this leaves a challenge for Kevin Rudd and Swan. Knowing the budget difficulties that lie ahead, why get yourself in deeper by going ahead with the now plainly unaffordable tax cuts scheduled for this July and next?
Those tax cuts are biased in favour of individuals earning more than $80,000 a year, yielding princely savings of just $2.88 a week to low-income earners.”
This might have the makings of a mandate for an early election: Rudd should back away from the upper end of teh post-July tax cuts, because they will be unaffordable without a mining boom to pay for them.
Diogenes, in order to accuse Bligh of lying, as opposed to merely using guarded language to keep the Opposition guessing, you have to produce a quote in which she flatly said: “I will not call an election until September.” Until you do so, this is just hot air.
Adam
She was intellectually dishonest to say that she wouldn’t call an election as the state needed “political and economic stability” and then say that she called an early election because the state needed “political and economic stability”.
That is not guarded. That is dishonest. Where I come from, using the exact same argument to argue to diametrically opposite views means you are full of sh1t.
Diogenes you were the one who told us your dad was a Liberal, if it’s a touchy subject you only got yourself to blame
By the way I don’t need to defend Labor and Rudd’s honesty, you need to provide proof of their lies I feel
Boring. Where are the beefos?
At least the beefo between the Amigo and Diog is more interesting than the QT.
Amigo, i posted yesterday, Like Son Like fatner.
Alternatively both statements could be true. Did that occur to you? You could make an argument either way for each of the two scenarios being needed to bring stability.
fatner = father
QT not very exciting , Swanny looks like he’s nodding off
Finns fatner would be Joe’s dad
Geez, Bernard Keane certainly ain’t a Hockey fan:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090223-Joe-Hockey.html
Geeze Dio take a breath.
Nearly everyday the election was speculated on. Business was indicating uncertainty, people was speculating, she probably wanted to wait until Sept. but if you’ve seen the RBA gov speak the other day, he said that in 3mths Global Financial markerts suffered the most contracted downturn ever. With 2000 people moving to Qld and the mining and retail sectors sheding jobs, Bligh probably thought it would be prudent to go to the elections now, rather than later.
Did anybody catch what that wag just yelled out in question time?
Pyne’s first point of order as manager of opposition business..
someone yelled out “who won the golf match, you or Corey?”
I thought I heard Swan refer to Hockey as the “deputy shadow treasurer”.
thanks Grog – lol, I wondered what it was that had em all laughing
466 – yeah he did
He did and the Libs didn’t object.
vera
I’ve done so already. Rudd lied about the pink batts reducing carbon emissions. Wong lied about reducing household emissions not meaning industry can emit more carbon. Bligh lied about the reasons for going or not going to an early election.
ltep
It did in fact. That will reassure the public. When she says something one day it means the opposite to when she says it the day after. And both statements cannot be true as that would be paradoxical.
Now we’ve gone from accusing her of lying to accusing her of “intellectually dishonesty”. She’s a politician, not a philosophy professor. This is how politicians operate, particularly when they’re being badgered by the Murdoch press every day to make an announcement. You know all this, you’re just being precious, so kindly don’t use the kind of language you directed at me at #454.
You got the feeling that Rudd wants the Parliament to forever talking about the Vic bushfire.
If she said both at the same time it would be paradoxical. Not necessarily if she said them both weeks apart.
If she responded to questions weeks ago by saying “I’m not telling you when I’m calling the election” then surely that would bring about instability?
Diog, it’s time for you to go and contemplate under the knowledge tree.
Hockey just asked Swan about fixed interest rates.
Swan should remind Hockey that his political party ran a scare campaign telling voters that interest rates would be higher under Labor, which would’ve encouraged some to fix the rate of their loans.
Chrissy Pyne just got warned!
He did it again
Holy shite!! take him out and hang him
ShowsOn
It’s time for you to send him another email as his employer asking him to reflect on the appropriateness of his actions.
Now I know how GP and Glen feel.
Why of course!
LOL! Pyne is having a go at Albanese for reporting to the house about the floods!
The strategy of the government is a good one in this QT. Let the Opposition fire off their best shots, knock them down as best possible, then go back to talking about how the government is assisting at a time of tragedy. This keeps the parliament quiet for a good portion of the time and prevents the opposition from getting on a roll with their attacks. Engage them as little as possible.
I don’t see how he lied about the pink batts. I’m assuming his statements were what would happen to emissions without the CPRS, which hasn’t even been introduced yet.
Diog, like how the 3 Amigos Vs 70 (including you) felt? Walk a mile in my shoes.
Finns
There were a couple of times I thought of switching sides just to even things up. But it was Hillary. I just couldn’t do it.
ltep
Fair enough for Rudd. Wong’s comments were certainly in the context of the CPRS though.
Is Swanny on speed? he keeps on referring to Hockey as “deputy shadow treasurer”
Perhaps you should reflect on how it is that you find yourself in their company. Let me give you a clue: hysterical exaggeration.
Finn, naaaah Swannys just letting them know he’s no lightweight like Hockey and stirring a bit of sht by referring to him as deputy lol.
Hockey is the only one from the LNP asking questions.
Diog, Obi did and enjoying it. Ah, the attraction of an older woman.
http://home.people.net.au/~sspp/hillary.gif
Let it download and you will be rewarded.
#484 TF
I’m sure Swan is alluding to Hockey being the 2nd choice for shadow treasurer. 2nd in line is deputy.
No. Just having the temerity to criticise Labor politicians for the same things we criticised the Liberals for.
I should have remembered that Labor is always right by definition. There is always an excuse when a Labor politician is talking rubbish but there never is when a Liberal is. I’ve learnt my lesson.
What did Tuckey yell across the chamber?
I think it was “Who stole my Zimmer frame?”.
Labor= good, liberal = evil. What could be simpler Diog? Why you rock the boat?
Diogenes,
Your dilemma is explained by invoking Yes Minister irregular verbs:
Labor supporters discuss serious issues with facts and reasoned argument;
You trivialise everything with hysterical exaggeration;
Glen and GP are devious manipulative right wing troglodytes with a hidden agenda.
I think crediting Glen with a “hidden agenda” attributes to him a subtlety which is beyond his capacities.
this is the last thing the coalition needs right now, are we all sitting waiting for newspoll to come out, with a bit of luck it’ll be tonight.
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2009/02/23/2498914.htm
Speculation that the US government is going to nationalise some banks is intensifying even though the Obama administration is attempting to quell them.
The WSJ says that the government could end up owning 40% of Citibank.
I don’t think Newspoll will change greatly. I think the coalition is down to the rusted ons as it is.
Essential Research: 62-38, up from 61-39. Also featured: more on the economy, support for federal control over primary health care (overwhelming), Rudd versus Costello as well as Turnbull, and – interestingly – how would you feel about an early election if the Opposition continued to oppose financial measures (38 per cent good, 34 per cent not good).
Says it all really.
SNIP: See Article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
Oh no! Here comes Julie to talk about Foreign Affairs!
Good idea, but Costello probably wouldn’t run.
Rudd versus Costello – At last a poll on this and Rudd leads by a country mile. Bree will not be pleased. Of course there is always the stock standard claim of poll bias which I expect Bree to trot out. Just wait for it.
Oz 497
All the US economists I read think that both Citibank and BofA are insolvent and will need to be nationalised (100%). Even Greenspan acknowledged it in a recent speech. It will be interesting to see how it affects bank shares worldwide.
As I said before the “bad assetts bank” alternative idea was always a con. Nobody would ever buy those assetts back, which means the whole value of that part of the bank bailout would have to be written off. Think getting a $42B stimulus through is hard? Try getting a bill passed that would see $700B US spent and then written off with no return to taxpayers. At least if they buy out Citi and BofA, they might get some money back later when they are profitable again. See
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/obama-on-nationalization/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/bad-bank-assets-proposal-worse-than-you.html
William, I assume 503 is a copy of the now deleted 501?
Then Turnbull should advise the party (publicly) that the candidate for a blue ribbon liberal seat such as Higgins should be demanding a leadership position in government or opposition and therefore the party MUST chose a candidate for pre selection who is prepared to accept that challenge.
ShowsOn 500
Perhaps if Turnbull renamed himself Malcolm Informal, his chances would improve.
SNIP: See Article 9 of comment moderation guidelines. In fact, read the whole thing – The Management.
Yeah, Turnbull should do a doorstop interview announcing Costello’s retirement from Parliament, and thanking him for his services to the party.
Yes. He should exhaust all options.
That’s the idea.
Woah, the way Fitzgibbon is talking right now I wouldn’t be surprised if we send another few hundred troops to Afghanistan.
That’s what Clyde Cameron did to Frank Walsh in 1968. He got up at ALP state conference and called for a round of applause for the Premier, who was retiring for the good of the party. That was the first Walsh knew of his retirement.
22% of Coalition voters don’t know if Rudd or Cossie would be better, and 17% of Lib voters actually think Rudd would be better than Cossie.
So we’ve ruled out Turnbull and Cossie as potentially beating Rudd. Who’s next?
If the leader of the opposition at the next election isn’t Costello or Turnbull, my guess is it will be Hockey.
It was a bit unfair on Walsh as he didn’t even complete one term after leading Labor out of 32 years of opposition (thanks to the electoral malapportionment known as the Playmander), but Dunstan will always be my favourite Australian political party leader of all time. That’s one good thing about being a South Australian!
Don’t worry Bree Bumbling Bartlett has decided to jack up the power bills 26 and a half percent,I hope there’s a few by elections soon
Good news about Frank’s uncle who will not be charged:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/23/2498820.htm
Clyde Cameron was a plonker – you can thank him for the “no Labor MPs over 65″ rule – of course, ironically, he lived to 95
26.5%!
ouch!
Hairy Maid, you can call Cameron many things, but certainly not a plonker. He was one of the shrewdest men ever to enter an Australian Parliament.
Mary, whether or not he was a plonker (whatever that may mean), was a restriction on Labor MP’S being over 65 such a bad thing? Look at the decrepid abomination that is Wilson Tuckey, and even Julie Bishop’s old Beau, Ross Lightfoot.
Would you inflict the likes of them on Labor?
Adam:
I know it’s in your system – just call me Cupid Stunt and get on with it…
Cameron had his flaws – the paranoid delusion about ASIO stealing his stuff being one of them
The problem with Wilson Tuckey and Ross Lightfoot has nothing to do with their age.
Hey that gives rise to a joke. What’s the difference between Speed Dating and Joe Hockey?
[Hey that gives rise to a joke. What’s the difference between Speed Dating and Joe Hockey?[
What?
Who is Bree Bumbling Bartlett?
Clyde Cameron was a special man, a shearer after leaving school at 14.
He stood up for what he believed in – a rare thing in politics. If you think he was a plonker – you do not know what a plonker is.
Isn’t that illegal? Having seen 70+ year old surgeons practicing (including one who was quite demented as it turned out) I have sympathy with the view but we can’t stop them purely based on age.
sorry missed a comma Bree,WA premier Bumbling Bartlett
Roxanna would you settle on, with speed dating you don’t always have to accept the second choice?
I don’t want to be kicked off the site!
That’s a sloppy answer Fulvio
It would be if it was taken to court. A certain Victorian state MP is well over the age limit but he defies all efforts to remove him. The rule is really a dead letter.
John, the WA Premier is Colin Barnett.
Shows on wrote -
“If the leader of the opposition at the next election isn’t Costello or Turnbull, my guess is it will be Hockey.”
If the fibbers party are ever “lead” by secondhand joe it will be an admission they have conceded any election they face during his leadership. Same goes for dutton, hissy whine or hunt for that matter.
Allbull is clearly on very shaky ground as the leader however, so its anyones guess. I’m sure little lying johnnie would put his hand up.
In this context, they may need to turn to tip after all…….
Adam is right
The High Court part of the constitution is just a relic of the mid-seventies ageism
Give her the right one, Dario
I don’t get why people think Hockey would make it as a leader. The media would rip him apart as he’s very prone to gaffes. He’d be like a smiling, more palatable Tony Abbot.
MHW, lay off Clyde, he was a friend of mine and a grand old man, as i sit at my keyboard i can look up at a peaceful water colour his wife painted for me.
ADAM & DIOG
“Adam in Canberra
Posted Monday, February 23, 2009 at 3:00 pm | Permalink
#470 to Diogenes
“you’re just being precious, so kindly don’t use the kind of language you directed at me at #454.”
for you Diogenes to use such uncourteous language to Adam who treats all bloggers with such gentle tolerance and manners is ……
well words just escape me
ah ,, arn’t you lucky , th words hav indeed come back to me ….you Diogenes ar like that insuklting Peter Overton of 60 Minuts intervewing Adam , I mean Tom Cruise…..and courteuous Tom says to Diog Overton “put your manners back in”
You can see Diogenes your hypocessy
Now that I’ve crritised you Diogenes and defended th inocent Adam , i shall now help you out …..give us actual quotes of Bligh (electon) and Rudd (batts) lying , thats pretty easy task isn’t it , and then then you’re off th hooks for mine
Adam,
That would be the Seitz King?
centrebet picks Bligh to win the election with a reduced majority.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25094278-5005962,00.html
Judith I hope they are right but I think the betting agencies had Labor as hot favorites in WA NT and ACT and look what happpened.
It would.
Mary, am I right in recalling that the section of the Constitution you are referring to was put there by the Rt Hon Malcolm Fraser, Liberal Prime Minister?
Ron
I didn’t actually direct my poor language at Adam directly. It was at Bligh and spilled over to the very gentlemanly Adam.
432 covers the Bligh comment which has been downgraded from lying to intellectual dishonesty at the appeal tribunal.
385 covers Rudd. Funnily enough, if the ETS becomes law he is “mistaken” shall be say, and if it doesn’t pass he is right. Actually, I don’t think it’s going to pass in time for 2010 if it ever passes. I think the Greens will prefer Turnbull’s model which will (supposedly) reduce emissions by more. I think Fielding and X will prefer the simplicity of a carbon tax over an ETS, which no-one seems to understand.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Slumdog-Millionaire-protests-in-India-dont-subside/articleshow/4175471.cms
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a2c1ea6-0167-11de-8199-000077b07658.html
Meanwhile back at the Mumbai slum……..i just want to know how much of the millions made by The movie Slumdog Millionaire would get back to help the kids and people of the Mumbai slum. Now that the Western audience has had its stimulation with the poverty porn.
Centrebet has odds on the leaders at the next election. Rudd/Hockey looks good odds at 8/1
RUDD / TURNBULL 1.32
RUDD / COSTELLO 2.65
GILLARD / TURNBULL 8.00
GILLARD / COSTELLO 10.00
RUDD / HOCKEY 9.00
SWAN / TURNBULL 15.00
SWAN / COSTELLO 21.00
ANY OTHER COMBINATION 26.00
RUDD / BISHOP 26.00
GILLARD / HOCKEY 34.00
GILLARD / BISHOP 51.00
I’m sure some of the money will finance surrogate motherhood by poverty stricken Indian women on behalf of exploitative Westerners, Finnigans.
By the way, is it OK to call you The for short?
Finns, can we keep at least a bit on topic please.
The only thing in Bligh’s favour is the fact the LNP needs 20 odd seats to win almost impossible, but if the media latch on the fact she’s going early to avoid the bad news coming out during an election campaign her goose could be cooked!
Hows about Swan in QT today HAHAHAHAH what a fool, he’s lame even when he goes on the attack…
Diogs
That market adds up to 171%. Not a fair assessment.
There was a number of fools in QT today Glen, but Swan sure as hell wasn’t one of them.
FS if you cant admit Swanny had a really bad day in QT you cant be subjective…
Whether or not he had a bad day (and in my subjective opinion he didn’t) is one thing. Whether or not he was a fool is entirely another.
GG
I thought it looked pretty stingy. Rudd/Turnbull at 3/1 on is unbackable IMHO, and to only get 16/10 on Rudd/Cossie looks way under the odds.
Gillard sticks in the knife:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/23/2499270.htm?section=justin
I notice the article also quotes Hockey saying
I heard Dutton say the same thing, obviously the memo had been sent around… Oh well they’re been saying it for 14 months now… and yet no dent has been made/
Grog even that was a lame attack, Gillard is capable of doing better…
Not in my book. There’s a blatant lie in there somewhere – either today, or a few weeks ago when she was saying the exact opposite.
From my vantage point today at work (a place from where I cannot post) I wasn’t sure what to be least surprised about:
(a) a Labor Premier lied so obviously you could only laugh at the cynicism of it all
(b) various Laboristas on this site trying to spin it as something else, or
(c) it was Diogenes who was doing the hard yards and pointing out the bleeding obvious, somewhat to the annoyance of the Labor types.
Good work (as usual) Dio!
NEWSFLASH: TURNBULL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT:
Turnbull: “…let’s wait and see.”
Give Bligh a couple of years, when she gets offered some sinecure and decides to move on.
Then it will be “the ongoing global financial crisis makes it essential for the good of Qld that I move on and hand over the reins to “.
And there’ll be Laboristas here, nodding their sincere agreement and murmuring approval.
Come on people, open your eyes! She lied!
Dyno,
If only you Liberal cheer squad had been forensic about, “never a GST”, “children overboard”and “interest rates always being lower under a Liberal Government”, then we could give your opinions some credence.
In the meantime, Dios charges have been further downgraded to “truthful in the context of what was known at the time”.
If Swan is such a fool, why is he on his THIRD shadow treasurer in 15 months?
Mate, if that’s the thing that most upsets you ATM then you’ve got nothing to worry about. She’s a politician for goodness sake. Get over it.
True, but she is working off a pretty high base.
And let’s be honest, it is true – the Govt benchers were laughing at all of Pyne’s points of orders – especially when he coudln’t help showing off that he had spent all weekend studying the standing orders like a little swot before the first day of school.
He even made a point of order when Albo was talking about the flood relief (ok, he was taking a while, but it was hardly partisan).
Once because Nelson couldnt cut it so we had to draft in Turnbull…
Then Bishop because she had a bad start and never recovered she did more damage to herself than from anything Swan said so she quit and ran and now we have Joe who is destroying Swanny in QT lol
I say again Swan is not a fool, because a fool couldnt memorise handouts from Treasury like Swan can do so well…so i take that back but he still looks bad when put next to Joe…
Still have to think Bligh is looking good to be the first woman elected Premier.
(and gotta say it’s pretty good that that is not even mentioned as an issue).
except by err ummm me…. whoops
GLEN – Time to make your LNP donation. They need everything they can get.
Grog she’ll only win because she has a buffer of 22 seats it would have to be a massive landslide for the LNP to win but i hope they bring it to less than 10 seats to win next time so then without the Borg they could get in…
Bligh is very sneaky going so early, she should get a lot of criticism for doing so, but she’s the premier and she can go when she wants…
Can we please discuss Queensland on the Queensland thread.
Thanks for your honesty Steve K.
Dyno, can you quote a specific statement by Bligh which you would characterise as a lie?
Not the point, GG. The point is certain people being in denial about what happened.
Politicians lie. All sides do it. Let’s not pretend otherwise and let’s not cr*p on about “truthful in the context of what was known at the time”.
No, Glen, Swannie doesn’t look bad against Joe. Joe is clearly a bit of a fibber with facts. He will say anything that takes his fancy and will exaggerate it to the high heavens. I don’t think I can really take as fact much of what he says.
I did have a laugh at Swannie stumbling over ‘rhinoceros’ tho. But a nervous performance – I don’t think so. Joe will need to lift his game because Swannie has accurate facts and figures to wave whenever Joe spouts the fibs.
A few mentions before about Cameron and Eric Walsh. I really enjoyed Cameron but poor old Eric was a bit old by the time he got there and I was glad he moved on – it wasn’t his fault that he couldn’t look a little more ‘modern’ for a changing society but, if I remember rightly, we got Don out of it and that was a bit exciting for some time.
Someone argued about the color of Don’s shorts the other night – they were pink and bought by a guy called John Ceruto. Whenever he landed in my office the girls hung around the door thinking that he was a Greek God (but sadly, he had feet of clay).
Poor Lawrence Springborg – heard him on the teev tonight. Unfortunately for him his voice is a bit morbid. Is that why he has lost previously.
Sorry William, will do
By that logic, Costello would look bad next to Joe.
Glenn wrote :
“The only thing in Bligh’s favour is the fact the LNP needs 20 odd seats”
…and that is ALL that matters in any election.
Grog but the difference between Swan on the one hand and Hockey and Costello on the other is that they werent limited to a script approach they could talk freely about economics without flubbing around and looking like a goose as Swan did today…
Dyno, Dio
Repeat after me 50 times, labor good liberal bad, then go to your rooms and don’t ever criticise or question a labor leader again.
I don’t think Joe Hockey will be talking about fixed interest rates in the future.
I am quite willing to acknowledge that Anna Bligh is a liar, if and when someone quotes me a statement made by her which (a) was false and (b) was known by her to be false when she said it.
I don’t recall Costello ever talking freely about economics, he’d just do his usual schtick about something irrelevent (hello Hugo Chavez!).
I’ll be back in an hour to see what you’ve come up with.
Hockey has already flubbed, he didn’t know the difference between the current account deficit and a budget deficit.
Castle – that is ab it unfair. I think Labor often get chastised here. I’ve always thought that Labor doesn’t do the ‘nasties’ as well as the Libs. The Libs go for the jugular, whether they are being factual or not, they defend their record to the death even the botched bits.
Labor on the other hand did not defend Keating’s stand during the 91 recession. They let the Libs get away with the 17% mantra and it penetrated voter’s minds for a long time and still resonates in some quarters.
But in the end the Libs went too far with IR and that has made a lot of people take another look at their economic record. The talk I hear constantly is ‘what in the heck did they do with all that money’. Never take the mob lightly – their are more intelligent than a lot of the dumbo journos we have around the place.
Whoops – ‘they’not ‘their’ – my oldtimers is coming to the fore.
dyno
Bligh seems a good sort so I’m moving on. The $1.5B writedown on the budget came in between the two statements. What worries me is that she must have been spooked badly by some economic news since she came back from holidays. She knew all about the GFC for a while but she made a comment during her press conference that no-one could have foreseen the effect it would have on Qld’s economy.
And I’m saying that mainly as a Croweater because I think we’re going to get even more bad news here. There’s a lot of talk of SA’s $1.6B of Workcover liabilities being about to blow up in our faces (I don’t know how that would be triggered economically). I bet Rann would be going early here if we didn’t have fixed terms. If you combine the $1.6B Workcover loss and our $1.5B budget deficit (which looks like getting worse), we’re into State bank territory. And that was REALLY BAD.
I heard Grahame Morris on the radio this morning talking about Hockey’s superior communication skills. Not once did he discuss the Shadow Treasurer’s economic expertise. Now we all know that Howard’s former chief of staff is an incurably partisan little spin insect, but surely a gesture – if only a limp symbolic one – could have been made towards this fundamental shadow ministerial job requirement.
(I should note that if Big Joe were the shadow spokesperson for Barbecues, Buffoonery and Being Everybody’s Mate, he might legitimately claim some expertise.)
Wong currently in estimates commitee – (Finance and Pub Admin)
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/
And Conroy talking NBN in the Communications, Environ and Art committee (if you really are battling with insomnia)
Dr Who live!
Dio – do you get much revenue over there from Roxby Downs. Surely with CC there will be a continuous market around the globe.
And how is the Ad/Darwin railway going now. Was that supposed to shift the ore or just passengers.
Adam
You lose the bet. She said;
You can’t possibly argue that isn’t a lie! That’s been the basis of all the excuses for her other comments.
Dio
I certainly wouldn’t attempt to defend the honesty of any premier, but I think the comments on Qld debt are a bit excessive. They are the only state with public servant super liaibilities fully funded. They are in debt now because they are spending on infrastructure for the growth, and revenue is down. But in a normal budge cycle they will be fine.
SA debt is not that bad. Even if what you fear happens that is a $3B debt now. When the State bank went bust it was a $5B debt against a state budget half the size it is now. In real terms the debt now is far less than in the early 90s. The Workcover fund does need to be overhauled in SA – its too generous/easily rorted. But that is a political fix. The really big long term debt risk for every state (except Qld) is paying off the super when al the baby boomer public servants retire. That is why I find S&Ps decision to rate Qld AA+ and the other states AAA all teh more amazing. It should be the other way around.
Do u have to?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9X6HFwXjgI
- Van the Man.
Diogoines
Posted Monday, February 23, 2009 at 7:31 pm | Permalink
“Ron I didn’t actually direct my poor language at Adam directly”
Understand , you sort of directd them at Adam , but not actualy It makes perfect sense to me I’m on your side here
So what you’re saying is having only sort of directed them at Adam , that he was over reacting to you being “precous”
but Adam #470 said “you’re just being precious,”…as well
But then , “pecious’ would be for you to give us th Bligh lying quote
Perhaps you’ll find she used an ‘Obamaism’ , so on your criteria of Obamism nuanses never being a lie that makes Anna Bigh truthful So you were wRONg , again
BH
We get plenty from Roxby but quite a lot has gone on infrastructure to support it. Rann and Foley bend over backwards to keep mining happy and it’s paying dividends. Rann’s problem is that everyone knows we should be rich from the mining boom and things still look grim. He’s getting the same criticism Howard and Bligh are getting about blowing all the money during the good times and having not enough to show for it (one of the reasons I’m fascinated in the Qld election).
They’re losing money on the Darwin-Adelaide railway. It’s about $1400 one way for a sleeper.
Glen, you are correct – Swan is limited in what he says – unlike one ex-treasurer with the alledgedly squeaky voice and Joe ‘work choices’ Hockey – he sticks to the truth
Tom.
Ronster, given your expertise in Pakistani affairs, I’m sure you’ve tuned in to 4 Corners.
Come on Glen – you can’t have it both ways – he’s either a Swan or a goose.
Au contraire. That is an expression of a political opinion. It is impossible to know (a) whether the statement was true or false and (b), if it was false, whether she was conscious of telling an untruth when she said it. That may seem a high standard to set, but that is the meaning of the word “lie” – a factually false statement made in the knowledge that is false.
Socrates
I can’t work out the Workcover thing. I’m told that our employees contributions are on the high side compared with other states. I’m also told that our payments for people off on Workcover are on the low side. So it’s either being VERY badly run or there are too many claims.
I know S&P are low on credibility but given Foleys adoration of our AAA rating and the lower interest rates it gets you, I wondered if the loss of Qlds AAA rating signified something really bad as they were the only ones to lose it.
How neat. Vanstone lets an alleged Mafia boss stay then jets off to where he didn’t want to go … but now she may want to stay where he’s permitted not to go …
… despite losing his legal battles to remain in Australia, Francesco Madafferi would never be deported home to Italy. In November 2005, Amanda Vanstone used her ministerial discretion to overturn the previous immigration minister’s decision and overrule her own department. Despite having stayed in Australia illegally and being suspected of Mafia involvement in both countries, Francesco was granted a visa in November 2005.
Then a “complainant” turns up with some information for the AFP (regarding a conversation they had had with a Liberal party insider).
The complainant offered to sign a witness statement (and later signed a Victorian statutory declaration, which has been obtained by The Age). The complainant also gave police a copy of a file saved onto their computer in early 2004, recording what the Liberal Party insider had confided. The file named two politicians – NSW Senator Marise Payne and Amanda Vanstone – and stated:
“In exchange for (alleged) criminal Frank Medaffery’s (sic) release from Villawood detention centre and the granting of his application to stay in Australia, the Liberal Party received donations from Medaffery’s (sic) associates and business partners within the Italian community. (Mention Nick Scali as an example).”
It’s right that this case has been reopened.
Whoops: source.
IW,
Look out for a horse’s arse in your bed.
Dio
There was a report on the Workcover fund a year or two ago. Both your concerns are true. There is a lot of waste on lawyers fees too. The big problem is that people can stay on the benefits far too long; long after they should have returned to some form of work. There is no incentive to do so. You are right – fees are very high here.
The S&P thing is a ludicrous over reaction. Qld has borrowed a lot for projects in recent years (about $18B I think) and there is some risk they may have to step in and cover losses on some of the Brisbane City Council toll projects if Airport Link goes bust. That woudl put the state budget well into debt and be embarrassing. But they still have over $50B saved; they won’t go broke.
Adam
Those are very high standards. It’s almost impossible to ever prove that someone knows the opinion they express is not what they really think. I was hoping that the “she’s a politician so she says what she has to” meme would morph into “she’s a politician so she does what’s best for her”, hence contradicting her statement. But no cigar today.
Pantomime?
Anyone watching 4 Corners? Damn scary stuff.
IW,
We know which end you are you media tart.
It’s interesting that Glen picks on Swan’s presentation, or one slip up, but can’t find one he said in response to hockey’s questions to criticise him on. Swan beat Hockey today where it counted, on substance.
GG I shouldn’t be laughing coz I’m supposed to think you’re a fool.
(But I am.)
(Laughing.)
Diogenes,
So now you further downgrade your plea to a bulldusting offence.
Quite so. That’s why you should refrain from calling people liars unless you can prove that they are. It debases the currency.
But Gary, Hockey is a superior media performer (Grahame Morris told us so just this morning). As Big Joe well knows, what you sell is immaterial. How you sell it, and – crucially – how much of it you sell is the key measure of your success.
Adam,
Actually, I’ve been waiting for you to make that point all day.
I’m very impressed. Knowing you, it’s not a coincidence that “Debase the currency” was the advice given to Diogenes by the Oracle of Delphi.
Joe Hockey and Franco Cozzo (a Melbourne legend), so much in common.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ZUVd9NMM_k
I thought it was “get out of my light.”
Here is Joe’s rolemodel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OJGksXaCwo
“get out of my light”
That’s what Diogenes said to Alexander the Great who came to pay homage to him while he was in the tub. Alexander the Great said he would do anything for Diogenes that was in his power and Diogenes said “get out of my light”. It is probably apocryphal.
Bad news, bludgers. A big chunk of Victoria is burning and an outer part of Melbourne is in danger. I noticed someone earlier was whinging about people in parliament focussing too much on the Victorian bushfires. All I can say is, you’ve got absolutely no idea.
HSO
How are you doing? It’s easy enough to do what you/we do for a few days and say you’re just doing your job but it must me getting pretty tough by now.
Newspoll 58-42
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097590-601,00.html
Just who are the 20% who prefer Turnbull?
It’s crap for everyone, Diog. Just wanted to alert people it’s very nasty again. We’ve had people injured and more property losses, though just one house, but likely to get worse again on Friday, high temperature and high winds from the North and North West. No one needs to know some of it.
From The Cynics:
“Diogenes is standing at a riverbank with a distant city in the background. Crouched before him, a boy is drinking water from the river with a cupped hand. Diogenes’ drinking cup has fallen to the ground, and Diogenes is fixed in contemplation of the figure of the drinking boy.”
Shuffling back to his tub, Diogenes was heard to say “well, that’s another effing thing I can do without.”
Well, there’s Glen, and GP, and Bree, and I think Dyno… that makes four.
Newspoll 58-42
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097590-601,00.html
Quotation from Diogenes – “Why not whip the teacher when the pupil misbehaves?”
A lesson for the Libs here?
You may be confusing him with Socrates, who was taken on a tour of the marketplace, and remarked “Poson ego khreian ouk ekho!” (So many things I can do without!)
Ummm, anyone got any idea WTF we do if the entire state gets wiped out by the fires? Local ABC has got Melbourne in some trouble, really. Bloody hell, we’ll all have to immigrate and really bugger up the redistributions.
Don’t get carried away, HSO. Some parts of Upwey and Belgrave Heights are at risk. I doubt St Kilda is in any danger.
New thread.