Not exactly hot off the presses with this one, but Friday’s poll from Roy Morgan (who seem to have returned to their weekly polling habits of old) has Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5 compared with 60-40 the previous week. The primary vote movements are bigger than you would expect from this: Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 49 per cent, and the Coalition is up 1 per cent to 36.5 per cent. The slack is taken up by “independent/others”, up from 3.5 per cent to 6 per cent. Perhaps South Australians are telling survey takers they’ll vote for Nick Xenophon. Elsewhere:
• Speculation continues to mount that former WA Health Minister and Attorney-General Jim McGinty (left) will shortly be calling it a day, initiating a by-election in Fremantle to coincide with the state’s May 16 daylight saving referendum. On ABC television news, Peter Kennedy reported that rumoured preselection contender Peter Tagliaferri (right) met with McGinty and ALP state secretary Simon Mead to “discuss the possible vacancy”. However, Alan Carpenter is offering point-blank denials to speculation he might also vacate his seat of Willagee, which puts the prospect of a dangerous preselection stoush between Tagliaferri and LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly back on the agenda. Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports:
Alan Carpenter says he will remain in state parliament till the next election. He ruled out the possibility of a by-election for his safe Labor seat of Willagee … He shrugged off speculation that he and Fremantle MP Jim McGinty were contemplating mid-term retirement to make way for new Labor blood, “you might not believe me, but often I’m the last person to hear about these things”. It seems Jandakot Liberal MP Joe Francis could be more tuned in to Labor machinations than the former premier, becoming the third person to tell the Herald that LHMWU secretary Dave Kelly was being groomed to take over a Labor seat.
• What’s more, Robert Taylor of The West Australian has mused on the possibility of star Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan moving to federal politics by taking on Don Randall in Canning, where redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 5.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
• Staying in WA, the Liberal Party is having an interesting time dealing with jockeying ahead of preselection for the safe southern suburbs seat of Tangney. Sitting member Dennis Jensen (left) lost the preselection vote ahead of the last election to Matt Brown, former chief-of-staff to Defence Minister Robert Hill, but the result was overturned by prime ministerial fiat. As Robert Taylor puts it, “this time there’s no John Howard and Dr Jensen looks decidedly shaky”. Against this backdrop, local Liberal branches have been inundated with membership applications from “Muslim men”, who are believed – certainly by the Brown camp – to be enthusiasts for the incumbent. A compromise reached at the state executive saw admission granted to half the applicants, who can apparently thank Julie Bishop for arguing that “many of her east coast colleagues with big Muslim populations in their electorates were nervous about the outcome”. Taylor says a Brown supporter told him “the new members were associated with ‘strident anti-Israel statements’ from the Australian National Imams Council”.
• With independent MP Rory McEwen to call it a day, the Liberals would be pencilling in his seat of Mount Gambier as a soft target at next year’s state election. However, the Border Watch reports Liberal candidate Steve Perryman, the mayor of Mount Gambier, might face an independent challenge from Don Pegler, the mayor of Grant District Council, who has perhaps been inspired by Geoff Brock’s boilover in Frome. Grant covers the electorate’s extensive rural areas outside of the City of Mount Gambier, although the latter accounts for three times as many voters.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews offers a colourful and detailed account of the gruelling Liberal preselection jockeying in Kooyong.
• Landeryou also notes conflicting reports on the prospect of a Right-backed preselection challenge by Noel McCoy against Phillip Ruddock in Berowra.
• Andrew Leigh and Mark McLeish have published a paper at Australian Policy Online which asks a most timely question: Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Using data from 191 state elections, they find a positive correlation between low unemployment and success for the incumbent, “with each additional percentage point of unemployment (or each percentage point increase over the cycle) reducing the incumbent’s re-election probability by 3-5 percentage points”. Furthermore, “what matters most is not the performance of the state economy relative to the national economy, but the state economy itself”. That being so, it seems voters “systematically commit attribution errors – giving state leaders too much blame when their economy is in recession, and too much credit when it is booming”.
• The Parliamentary Library has published a note on the redistribution of WA’s federal electorates.
632 Comments
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SNIP: See Article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
Oh no! Here comes Julie to talk about Foreign Affairs!
Good idea, but Costello probably wouldn’t run.
Rudd versus Costello – At last a poll on this and Rudd leads by a country mile. Bree will not be pleased. Of course there is always the stock standard claim of poll bias which I expect Bree to trot out. Just wait for it.
Oz 497
All the US economists I read think that both Citibank and BofA are insolvent and will need to be nationalised (100%). Even Greenspan acknowledged it in a recent speech. It will be interesting to see how it affects bank shares worldwide.
As I said before the “bad assetts bank” alternative idea was always a con. Nobody would ever buy those assetts back, which means the whole value of that part of the bank bailout would have to be written off. Think getting a $42B stimulus through is hard? Try getting a bill passed that would see $700B US spent and then written off with no return to taxpayers. At least if they buy out Citi and BofA, they might get some money back later when they are profitable again. See
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/11/obama-on-nationalization/
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/02/bad-bank-assets-proposal-worse-than-you.html
William, I assume 503 is a copy of the now deleted 501?
Then Turnbull should advise the party (publicly) that the candidate for a blue ribbon liberal seat such as Higgins should be demanding a leadership position in government or opposition and therefore the party MUST chose a candidate for pre selection who is prepared to accept that challenge.
ShowsOn 500
Perhaps if Turnbull renamed himself Malcolm Informal, his chances would improve.
SNIP: See Article 9 of comment moderation guidelines. In fact, read the whole thing – The Management.
Yeah, Turnbull should do a doorstop interview announcing Costello’s retirement from Parliament, and thanking him for his services to the party.
Yes. He should exhaust all options.
That’s the idea.
Woah, the way Fitzgibbon is talking right now I wouldn’t be surprised if we send another few hundred troops to Afghanistan.
That’s what Clyde Cameron did to Frank Walsh in 1968. He got up at ALP state conference and called for a round of applause for the Premier, who was retiring for the good of the party. That was the first Walsh knew of his retirement.
22% of Coalition voters don’t know if Rudd or Cossie would be better, and 17% of Lib voters actually think Rudd would be better than Cossie.
So we’ve ruled out Turnbull and Cossie as potentially beating Rudd. Who’s next?
If the leader of the opposition at the next election isn’t Costello or Turnbull, my guess is it will be Hockey.
It was a bit unfair on Walsh as he didn’t even complete one term after leading Labor out of 32 years of opposition (thanks to the electoral malapportionment known as the Playmander), but Dunstan will always be my favourite Australian political party leader of all time. That’s one good thing about being a South Australian!
Don’t worry Bree Bumbling Bartlett has decided to jack up the power bills 26 and a half percent,I hope there’s a few by elections soon
Good news about Frank’s uncle who will not be charged:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/23/2498820.htm
Clyde Cameron was a plonker – you can thank him for the “no Labor MPs over 65″ rule – of course, ironically, he lived to 95
26.5%!
ouch!
Hairy Maid, you can call Cameron many things, but certainly not a plonker. He was one of the shrewdest men ever to enter an Australian Parliament.
Mary, whether or not he was a plonker (whatever that may mean), was a restriction on Labor MP’S being over 65 such a bad thing? Look at the decrepid abomination that is Wilson Tuckey, and even Julie Bishop’s old Beau, Ross Lightfoot.
Would you inflict the likes of them on Labor?
Adam:
I know it’s in your system – just call me Cupid Stunt and get on with it…
Cameron had his flaws – the paranoid delusion about ASIO stealing his stuff being one of them
The problem with Wilson Tuckey and Ross Lightfoot has nothing to do with their age.
Hey that gives rise to a joke. What’s the difference between Speed Dating and Joe Hockey?
[Hey that gives rise to a joke. What’s the difference between Speed Dating and Joe Hockey?[
What?
Who is Bree Bumbling Bartlett?
Clyde Cameron was a special man, a shearer after leaving school at 14.
He stood up for what he believed in – a rare thing in politics. If you think he was a plonker – you do not know what a plonker is.
Isn’t that illegal? Having seen 70+ year old surgeons practicing (including one who was quite demented as it turned out) I have sympathy with the view but we can’t stop them purely based on age.
sorry missed a comma Bree,WA premier Bumbling Bartlett
Roxanna would you settle on, with speed dating you don’t always have to accept the second choice?
I don’t want to be kicked off the site!
That’s a sloppy answer Fulvio
It would be if it was taken to court. A certain Victorian state MP is well over the age limit but he defies all efforts to remove him. The rule is really a dead letter.
John, the WA Premier is Colin Barnett.
Shows on wrote -
“If the leader of the opposition at the next election isn’t Costello or Turnbull, my guess is it will be Hockey.”
If the fibbers party are ever “lead” by secondhand joe it will be an admission they have conceded any election they face during his leadership. Same goes for dutton, hissy whine or hunt for that matter.
Allbull is clearly on very shaky ground as the leader however, so its anyones guess. I’m sure little lying johnnie would put his hand up.
In this context, they may need to turn to tip after all…….
Adam is right
The High Court part of the constitution is just a relic of the mid-seventies ageism
Give her the right one, Dario
I don’t get why people think Hockey would make it as a leader. The media would rip him apart as he’s very prone to gaffes. He’d be like a smiling, more palatable Tony Abbot.
MHW, lay off Clyde, he was a friend of mine and a grand old man, as i sit at my keyboard i can look up at a peaceful water colour his wife painted for me.
ADAM & DIOG
“Adam in Canberra
Posted Monday, February 23, 2009 at 3:00 pm | Permalink
#470 to Diogenes
“you’re just being precious, so kindly don’t use the kind of language you directed at me at #454.”
for you Diogenes to use such uncourteous language to Adam who treats all bloggers with such gentle tolerance and manners is ……
well words just escape me
ah ,, arn’t you lucky , th words hav indeed come back to me ….you Diogenes ar like that insuklting Peter Overton of 60 Minuts intervewing Adam , I mean Tom Cruise…..and courteuous Tom says to Diog Overton “put your manners back in”
You can see Diogenes your hypocessy
Now that I’ve crritised you Diogenes and defended th inocent Adam , i shall now help you out …..give us actual quotes of Bligh (electon) and Rudd (batts) lying , thats pretty easy task isn’t it , and then then you’re off th hooks for mine
Adam,
That would be the Seitz King?
centrebet picks Bligh to win the election with a reduced majority.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25094278-5005962,00.html
Judith I hope they are right but I think the betting agencies had Labor as hot favorites in WA NT and ACT and look what happpened.
It would.
Mary, am I right in recalling that the section of the Constitution you are referring to was put there by the Rt Hon Malcolm Fraser, Liberal Prime Minister?
Ron
I didn’t actually direct my poor language at Adam directly. It was at Bligh and spilled over to the very gentlemanly Adam.
432 covers the Bligh comment which has been downgraded from lying to intellectual dishonesty at the appeal tribunal.
385 covers Rudd. Funnily enough, if the ETS becomes law he is “mistaken” shall be say, and if it doesn’t pass he is right. Actually, I don’t think it’s going to pass in time for 2010 if it ever passes. I think the Greens will prefer Turnbull’s model which will (supposedly) reduce emissions by more. I think Fielding and X will prefer the simplicity of a carbon tax over an ETS, which no-one seems to understand.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Slumdog-Millionaire-protests-in-India-dont-subside/articleshow/4175471.cms
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3a2c1ea6-0167-11de-8199-000077b07658.html
Meanwhile back at the Mumbai slum……..i just want to know how much of the millions made by The movie Slumdog Millionaire would get back to help the kids and people of the Mumbai slum. Now that the Western audience has had its stimulation with the poverty porn.
Centrebet has odds on the leaders at the next election. Rudd/Hockey looks good odds at 8/1
RUDD / TURNBULL 1.32
RUDD / COSTELLO 2.65
GILLARD / TURNBULL 8.00
GILLARD / COSTELLO 10.00
RUDD / HOCKEY 9.00
SWAN / TURNBULL 15.00
SWAN / COSTELLO 21.00
ANY OTHER COMBINATION 26.00
RUDD / BISHOP 26.00
GILLARD / HOCKEY 34.00
GILLARD / BISHOP 51.00
I’m sure some of the money will finance surrogate motherhood by poverty stricken Indian women on behalf of exploitative Westerners, Finnigans.
By the way, is it OK to call you The for short?
Finns, can we keep at least a bit on topic please.
The only thing in Bligh’s favour is the fact the LNP needs 20 odd seats to win almost impossible, but if the media latch on the fact she’s going early to avoid the bad news coming out during an election campaign her goose could be cooked!
Hows about Swan in QT today HAHAHAHAH what a fool, he’s lame even when he goes on the attack…
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