Not exactly hot off the presses with this one, but Friday’s poll from Roy Morgan (who seem to have returned to their weekly polling habits of old) has Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5 compared with 60-40 the previous week. The primary vote movements are bigger than you would expect from this: Labor is down 2.5 per cent to 49 per cent, and the Coalition is up 1 per cent to 36.5 per cent. The slack is taken up by “independent/others”, up from 3.5 per cent to 6 per cent. Perhaps South Australians are telling survey takers they’ll vote for Nick Xenophon. Elsewhere:
• Speculation continues to mount that former WA Health Minister and Attorney-General Jim McGinty (left) will shortly be calling it a day, initiating a by-election in Fremantle to coincide with the state’s May 16 daylight saving referendum. On ABC television news, Peter Kennedy reported that rumoured preselection contender Peter Tagliaferri (right) met with McGinty and ALP state secretary Simon Mead to “discuss the possible vacancy”. However, Alan Carpenter is offering point-blank denials to speculation he might also vacate his seat of Willagee, which puts the prospect of a dangerous preselection stoush between Tagliaferri and LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly back on the agenda. Steve Grant of the Fremantle Herald reports:
Alan Carpenter says he will remain in state parliament till the next election. He ruled out the possibility of a by-election for his safe Labor seat of Willagee … He shrugged off speculation that he and Fremantle MP Jim McGinty were contemplating mid-term retirement to make way for new Labor blood, “you might not believe me, but often I’m the last person to hear about these things”. It seems Jandakot Liberal MP Joe Francis could be more tuned in to Labor machinations than the former premier, becoming the third person to tell the Herald that LHMWU secretary Dave Kelly was being groomed to take over a Labor seat.
• What’s more, Robert Taylor of The West Australian has mused on the possibility of star Gallop/Carpenter government minister Alannah MacTiernan moving to federal politics by taking on Don Randall in Canning, where redistribution has shaved the Liberal margin from 5.6 per cent to 4.3 per cent.
• Staying in WA, the Liberal Party is having an interesting time dealing with jockeying ahead of preselection for the safe southern suburbs seat of Tangney. Sitting member Dennis Jensen (left) lost the preselection vote ahead of the last election to Matt Brown, former chief-of-staff to Defence Minister Robert Hill, but the result was overturned by prime ministerial fiat. As Robert Taylor puts it, “this time there’s no John Howard and Dr Jensen looks decidedly shaky”. Against this backdrop, local Liberal branches have been inundated with membership applications from “Muslim men”, who are believed – certainly by the Brown camp – to be enthusiasts for the incumbent. A compromise reached at the state executive saw admission granted to half the applicants, who can apparently thank Julie Bishop for arguing that “many of her east coast colleagues with big Muslim populations in their electorates were nervous about the outcome”. Taylor says a Brown supporter told him “the new members were associated with ‘strident anti-Israel statements’ from the Australian National Imams Council”.
• With independent MP Rory McEwen to call it a day, the Liberals would be pencilling in his seat of Mount Gambier as a soft target at next year’s state election. However, the Border Watch reports Liberal candidate Steve Perryman, the mayor of Mount Gambier, might face an independent challenge from Don Pegler, the mayor of Grant District Council, who has perhaps been inspired by Geoff Brock’s boilover in Frome. Grant covers the electorate’s extensive rural areas outside of the City of Mount Gambier, although the latter accounts for three times as many voters.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews offers a colourful and detailed account of the gruelling Liberal preselection jockeying in Kooyong.
• Landeryou also notes conflicting reports on the prospect of a Right-backed preselection challenge by Noel McCoy against Phillip Ruddock in Berowra.
• Andrew Leigh and Mark McLeish have published a paper at Australian Policy Online which asks a most timely question: Are State Elections Affected by the National Economy? Using data from 191 state elections, they find a positive correlation between low unemployment and success for the incumbent, “with each additional percentage point of unemployment (or each percentage point increase over the cycle) reducing the incumbent’s re-election probability by 3-5 percentage points”. Furthermore, “what matters most is not the performance of the state economy relative to the national economy, but the state economy itself”. That being so, it seems voters “systematically commit attribution errors – giving state leaders too much blame when their economy is in recession, and too much credit when it is booming”.
• The Parliamentary Library has published a note on the redistribution of WA’s federal electorates.
632 Comments
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Even a broken clock is right twice a day
I must admit I didn’t think Bligh would go to an early election. Strange decision really. What advantage is there for her going early?
Some interesting comments coming in right now to the ABC news site on the Costello – Hewson story.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/23/2498577.htm
The budget is likely to get worse as time goes on I assume…
I see a couple of negatives for Bligh though. The floods and the voters distain and distrust of early elections.
Premier Anna Bligh guarantees full-run government term
January 22, 2009 12:20pm
QUEENSLAND Premier Anna Bligh, fresh back from holidays, has ruled out going to the polls next month saying she still intends to run the full-term. On her first day back to work today Ms Bligh said job creation and stability, not the election due by September, were at the forefront of her mind. She toured the Moranbah North coal mine to announce the fast-tracking of funding for job creation projects in central Queensland. “I intend to run full-term. I believe it is absolutely critical that we provide political and economic stability,” she said.
Note the careful use of the word “intend”. The News Ltd headline does not accurately reflect what she actually said.
So it’s no longer “absolutely critical” to provide “political and economic stability” after all. Pathetic lies.
John Hewson for me was the one decent liberal that I haven’t minded. Good on him for speaking his mind. And… he has done nothing for the people of Higgins, so fark off Cossie you ugly muppet!
But alas he will look at the numbers for the election, no chance = no stance, he will then return to the front bench next term and take the leadership half way in. If it doesn’t play out this way I’ll eat my hat!
We need a high flying candidate in Higgs to trim down his lead further, although it will bounce back when he becomes leader.
Next year they’re going to downsize the movie “Australia” into “New Zealand” due to FGC. Ooouch but love it.
It would be worth noting that quite a few of the forms rejected initially in Tangney weren’t Muslims.
FGC = GFC
Just seen Ackerman on Skynews talking about “The Borg”. Was asked by interviewer if Borg will make a good premier. Ackers, sideswiped the question and said he has lots of experience. This will be the 3rd time Springborg will have run and is a thick as two planks. In this case “The Borg” acts exactly like he sounds.
412 whoops wrong thread
I must admit, regardless of the exact words Blighh used, it starts to look like Howard’s pedantic distinctions over the wording promises made and broken. The point is, the only logical reason to go early is if you believe the news will get worse. That isn’t a good look.
Cuppa-403 i noticed Bree had her say there lol.
I’d hardly call the date of an election a broken promise, i can’t think of one political leader that hasn’t kept the opposition guessing on an upcoming election date. It’s the advantage of being the govt.
David Walsh
Posted Monday, February 23, 2009 at 11:51 am | Permalink
“Ron, my original assertion was that it’s not a given that Costello wants the job of Opposition Leader between now and the next election”
David thats where you contiue to miss th subtle politcal point , and then misrepresented what I said I suplied numerous poltcal indicators Costello himself/henchmen ar undermining Turnbul
Th purpose is not for Costello to take Leedership of Liberal party at all Purpose is dramatiicaly weaken Tunbull to allow Costello an option of taking th Leadership should econamy tank and Polls start a reasonablee swing to th Libs
Should Polls not swing ie meaning a likely strong Laboer win , then Costello will not consder putting th last knives into Turnbull to finiash him off , and instead allow Turnbull to continue as Liberal Leeder & lose th next election
Should however GFC etc cause econamy to tank , huge unemployemnt result and a reasonable Polls swing to th Liberals Polls….Costello can decide whether an electon is winable & strike turnbull down which he’d do easily now that turnbull is politcl diminshed
That is point you hav overlooked Costelo’s strategy risks NOTHING , as usual
What costello is creating is th opprotiunity to hav an option almost at his discretion subject to Polls …and even if favourable an option to calculate risk reward …and probably not prepared to over risk To sugest this demomstrated undermining of turnbull that I listed , has no politcal object misses th key…particularly given consrvative wing is discredied by Howards legicy and hav no viable leader waiting
The LNP needs to win 22 seats in a House of 89, which requires a 2PP swing of over 8%, and that swing has to happen in Brisbane, not in the bush. Does anyone seriously think this is possible with a proved Nat dud like Springborg in change?
Adam
No – I think that is where Bligh must attack. At first I thought the timing of this was quite bad, with the recent downgrading of the State’s finances to AA+. But the flip side of that is that it underscores the need for a competent manager. Do the NatLibs have anyone who can command credibility in running the state?
Adam
Probably not. Which begs the question “Why did she go early when she said she wouldn’t?”. She must know something pretty awful about the Budget, IMHO.
From under which rock does the National Party recruit its representatives?
Today’s Wagga Daily Advertiser carried a claim by Member for Riverina Kay Hull that Labor is responsible for the looming loss of a NSW electorate, possibly her own rural electorate, under the redistribution process. Hull states: “If these reports are true it just reiterates the fact that Labor looks after the cities and leaves rural and regional Australia to fend for itself”.
By applying Mrs Hull’s fallacious reasoning, the abolishment of the rurally-based National Party-held Division of Gwydir in 2007 was because the previous Howard-led Liberal-National Coalition government governed for the cities and not the bush. D’oh!
Crawl back under that rock, Kay.
She can frame it by saying that she wants to confirm with the electorate that they have the confidence to guide Queensland through these economic times.
It’d be the only way to really frame it without it looking awful.
Ron @ 417.
Good post, I think you are pretty close to being on the money there.
Vera @ 416,
If you remember, Howard played the same trick but was waiting for the last possible minute in the vain hope that the polls might turn.
Mumble does Adam.
http://mumble.com.au/
Looks like that’s exactly what she’s doing
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25093756-29277,00.html
#425
She shouldn’t have mentioned her political interests at all, even as a denial. No one will believe that.
Under these economic circumstances I think Bligh will get away with that argument. It sounds plausible, if not the real reason.
Well, way up the top there there was a discussion between Adam, BH and BB regarding the republic referendum and Turnbull being played off a break by Howard.
However, the proposal had to get through parliament first before it could be put to referendum. No direct election model or close variant thereof was likely to get through parliament on Howard’s watch. “Passionately opposed” I think were the words Howard use at the time.
426 triton – So if asked directly she should say “No Comment”? That would go down well.
Speaking of Treasurer qualifications – Qld’s current Labor one is Andrew Fraser. His biography says:
“Mr Fraser is a graduate of Griffith University with degrees in Commerce and Law. He graduated with first class honours and received the University Medal for academic excellence.”
Borg will have fun debating finance with him. ROTFL
Hey fellow bludgers. I just ran into an ex Liberal staffer at the shops. She reckons that it’s better to not run, than run in a seat you can’t win in an election. I thought that if you ran a good campaign youn could get further recognition and later a better opportunity. She said that you will be associated with losing. What’s everyone else’s view?
From Bligh’s comments about why she’s calling an early election.
From Bligh’s comments about why she wouldn’t call an early election.
Has a politician ever been so transparently full of sh1t?
I’d like to know what process of logic Mumble uses to come to that prediction. It requires several hundred thousand people in Brisbane to decide that Springborg would make a better Premier than Bligh, and I just can’s see that happening.
And while I’m at it, isn’t going to look pretty crap having politicians running around kissing babies and making false promises when they should be looking after the people who are under water. Shouldn’t Bligh be concentrating on the half of the state in flood, rather than optimising her political future. Do they have to swim to the ballot booth?
I just can’s see that happening” = I just can’t see that happening”
Adam, the tyranny of distance.
#429 GB
No, I’m just saying that she shouldn’t volunteer it in a statement about why she called an election. That statement, and that part in particular, could appear prominently in tomorrow’s QLD papers and showed on the TV news. Don’t mention your political interests more than you have to.
Heat Ledger wins!
#437
Well, re-reading the post maybe it was an answer rather than a volunteered statement.
We should be able to come up with some good campaign slogans for a politician nicknamed “the Borg”. How about:
“policy is irrelevant, vote Borg”
“resistance is futile, vote Borg!”
“the Liberals have been assimilated”
“you will be assimilated, vote Borg”
“the collective is the Pinneapple Party, vote Borg!”
“democracy is weakness, serve the collective, vote Borg”
I think this is going to happen. There will be big to massive swings to the LNP in rural QLD, and next to no swing in SE QLD, which means Labor will be returned with a 10 – 15 seat majority:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/calculator/?swing=region&state=-7.9&seq=0®=-10&retiringfactor=1
Gee diogenes your dad would be proud of you:) all these anti Labor posts, so far today you say Rudd Wong and Bligh are all liars… anyone else you want to add to the list?
I’d say that’s crap. Did not Rudd lose at his first attempt at Griffith?
I think all this outrage about politicians being cagey about when they are going to to the polls is a bit overblown. All premiers of all parties play this game. Can anyone produce a quote of Bligh saying flatly “I will not call an election before September”? I’d be surprised if they can. In the quote I gave above, she was careful to use the word “intend”, and everyone familiar with politics knew what that meant. It meant “I am keeping my options open.”
centaur009 @ 431,
It didn’t do Kevin Rudd much harm. He lost first time around and is now PM of the country!
Yes, and Turnbull had to buy a safe seat.
thank’s all. But what about changing seats too?
Same here, because all local, state, territory, and federal government elections should be on the same day every four years.
vera
You could try to refute the posts rather than bringing up my dear old dad.
It’s irrelevant to me which side makes the argument. If it’s a lie, I’m going to point it out.
Richie Benaud would be proud!
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