A very well timed Newspoll survey of 752 respondents shows Anna Bligh’s Labor government looking well placed with a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred – although this may be based on an unduly generous preference estimate. On the primary vote, Labor holds a narrow lead of 43 per cent to 42 per cent. This marks a correction from an aberrant looking result in the last quarter of 2008, when Labor led 45 per cent to 37 per cent (57-43 on two-party preferred). Normally Newspoll’s Queensland surveys are quarterly, with samples of over 1000 – obviously this one been cut short and rushed into service.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
212 Comments
Yes, three years of the Nationals, Springborg doing nothing, developing no economic policy and presiding over a screeching divided rabble in Parliament has all been preparation for this result. Well done!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/calculator/
53-47 does seem a bit generous from 43-42. Last time, did most Greens votes exhaust or go to Labor?
Fargo has done the Green preference figures here.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/02/23/queensland-election-march-21/comment-page-2/#comment-241925
Here’s Mumble trying to gee up the tory troops.
http://www.mumble.com.au/
Steve, his form his good:
http://www.mumble.com.au/index_oldish43.html
2008 even
Mumble put his hard earnt money on the Liberal Party forming Govt. in the ACT.
Anyone see a trend in his predictions?
I don’t see this newspoll telling us all that much. It is less than 800 voters over a one and a half month period. I just hope a 1000 person poll is done over this comming weekend so we can get a really good indication of where each party stands.
In a musical mood this morning, so to quote a Radiohead song ‘No alarms, no surprises.
Mumble also told us to put our money on John McCain in Nov 2008. If you throw enough stones at a building, you’re gonna break a window sooner or later.
I have a feeling that Mumble was predicting a Liberal Party win federally in 2007 too?
ruawake – looking at that entry, not a prediction (hence your choice of words), just playing the percentages.
Diogenes – yes Brent talked up McCain’s chances much too much, in contradiction to his usual wisdom about the nature of the electoral cycle.
Kit – hell no.
First conservative ex-Nat Independent to run – Stuart Copeland
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25098838-952,00.html
Priceless! The LNP’s best asset in campaigning for metropolitan seats wont support them and the ALP’s best asset, Barnaby Joyce is going to campaign for them.
Should be an interesting election campaign.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25097382-952,00.html
What’s the point of this:
Considering the LNP only exists in one state, at most there can only be two LNP “government leaders”.
Mumble consistently predicted a Labor victory federally in 07 for a long time (years) before the election. Anyone who thinks he’s a cheerleader for the Liberals isn’t paying attention. Sometimes he’s wrong and sometimes he’s right but he’s not biased.
He also gave up on McCain long before November – he changed his mind when Palin was brought on board.
No he isn’t biased, but he’s been wrong about as much as he’s right, so I wouldn’t be hanging off too much of what he says
Has Malcolm Mackerras made a prediction yet? He has been right more times than he has been wrong.
Yes, LNP.
Really? Link please.
Wait sorry, I thought you said Mumble for some reason.
As of three weeks ago, Mackerras was tipping the ALP
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24866022-5006786,00.html
Sorry, that was Mackerras’s tip at the start of the year, not 3 weeks ago
I had to break my hiatus Re the rather uninformed comments re Mumble
1. obviously those here dont remember the “poll wars” or mumble ripping shannas a new one
2. So he gets some wrong-big deal but his unbiased analysis is the closest we have in this country to learned opine
3. To suggest he is a liberal lackey demeans the poster(s) who wrotesuch. They are obviously of v. short memories
“dont shoot the messenger”
Mackerras is putting his money on the Borg! Surely, that spells doom for Anna!
Not at last count he wasn’t
“Surely, that spells doom for Anna!”
Knowing Mackerras, it probably spells doom for the Borg!
#25
Also mumble seems to be a big believer in the electoral ‘cycle’: i.e. the bar gets higher for governments and lower for oppositions the longer a party’s in power. Given we’re now seeing some decade-old labor governments up for re-election, it’s not surprising he’d be predicting Liberal victories.
LNP Hospital pledge to deliver more beds for less money.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/lnps-175b-hospital-pledge/2009/02/24/1235237620882.html
And let me guess, there economic policy is to produce a budget surplus by cutting taxes?
Yay, a PPP for a children’s hospital.
They worked so well with the transport sector.
In other news, the President of the Young LNP who is contesting a seat in this election has been kicked out of his position.
LNP’s are ducking for cover allready;)
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/qld-magnate-cancels-media-conference-20090224-8gak.html
The opposition’s policy from the 2006 election backs the single hospital concept, as recommended by the state’s Review of Paediatric Cardiac Services.
“Currently specialist services are fragmented across a number of different hospitals,” the policy said.
“The review makes it quite clear that this is not best practice for ensuring quality care for our children”.
Are we going to have one dumb policy change per day from the LNP ?
William, Poss and Mark Bahnisch have started the Pineapple Party Time Blog.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/
William’s article is excellent about Qld, although I’m still recovering from the torrent of abuse when I put his argument a little more forcefully yesterday.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090224-Blighs-calculated-gamble-should-bear-fruit.html
Diog, If you think about it, the only political interest for her to call the election early would be Labor is ahead in the polling – but they’ve been ahead in most of the polling for along time. Beside that, this wouldn’t be the greatest time for her and Labor to go to the polls.
Diog, I agree with your comments 99% of the time and find your posts interesting. But I come from Qld and see how long the courious snail election speculation articles have been going on, it became old real quick.
Against Ray Hopper, who beat a National candidate in Cunningham a few years ago as an independent, then turned around and joined the party. Wouldn’t it be funny if he went out the same way, to Copeland?
Anyone know if Mal Brough will campaign??
I guess he’s only interested in federal politics if any…
dogma
What did you think about Mike Steketee’s article today saying that Labor were the ones fanning the flames to provoke self-fulfilling commentary about an early election? I have no idea if it’s true or not but he seems to be one of the few OO journos who is fairly impartial.
In the final analysis, it isn’t really a big issue unless there’s some REALLY bad news to come that Bligh knows and we don’t.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097851-5013457,00.html
I don’t think Mr Springborg will ask for his help.
Diog, considering the article’s didn’t name Labor of any of their sources until Bligh commented yesterday, they seem to be covering their collective asses, as JB will attest to the mejia is not above it. Bligh said she made the final date last weekend. I still think that she wanted to go full term, to get more major projects started, but businesses were starting to say, we’ll wait until we know which government will be in place after the election. That can’t happen in this economic climate.
Happy debating will be off for a while, be back later.
Surprise, surprise, Hanson to run:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25100435-29277,00.html
I am pretty sure Mumbel has been pretty accurate recently, I think he bet on the Lib to win in WA (at about $4) and tipped them, he was right in the ACT election, he picked the Lib will go close in NT. Bet on the NSW Lib at $1.9 (wish I could get some of that odd). He switch to Obama.
On 2PP terms, the Carpenter WA government’s opinion poll was better than Bligh Qld ALP before calling an early election. The next poll will be telling
#37 There was talk of a mid March poll as early as the first week of December from those in the know. Certainly wasn’t decided ‘last weekend’. Beattie did the same thing in 01, 04 and 06. Classic ‘crisis management to claim a mandate tactic’ 01 was the Townsville rorts scandal, 04 was children’s services, 06 health crisis, this time its the economy.
“Normally Newspoll’s Queensland surveys are quarterly, with samples of over 1000 – obviously this one been cut short and rushed into service”
Seems like the OO and clones were caught short.
Which is strange given that they have been constantly saying for a fair while that an election was ‘imminent’.
Maybe they really didn’t believe themselves otherwise they could have had the Newspoll sitting in reserve waiting to go fully formed.
This last sentence from Mike Steketee’s article demonstrates just how “impartial” he really is. It also demonstrates to the readers that political commentators such as him, regard the political process as nothing more than “spectator sport” and that the continued well-being of the Australian people takes a back seat.
No proper analysis about which side will provide proper and effective govenence of the State. No. Just base your vote on whether or not you think the current Government should be tossed out because Steketee thinks they should be kicked in the shins. Tosser.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097851-5013457,00.html
Barnaby Joyce on PM Agenda just said Anna Bligh will re-introduce death duties in Qld. I think this election will set a low point in gutter politics.
Yeah and she will probably re-introduce capital punishment and flogging in the stocks as well. Good one Barnaby!
Nah thats the LNP anti-hoon policy.
Dovif, “On 2PP terms, the Carpenter WA government’s opinion poll was better than Bligh Qld ALP before calling an early election.” Just not true. Best poll WA Labor got in the last 3 years was 54, twice, more normally 52.
And another key point from WA, taken from my election summary, “Of Labor’s 13 most marginal seats, only four are being contested by a sitting Labor MPs. While the Carpenter government has the advantage of incumbency, it does not have the advantage of incumbent MPs defending its key marginal seats. Indeed, three of the four most marginal Labor seats will be contested by a sitting Liberal MP.”
Labor lost 12 seats but only 5 sitting MPs. Labor does not have that disadvantage in its marginal seats in Queensland.
“PAULINE Hanson will again try to capitalise on voter disenchantment by contesting the March 21 Queensland election.
In a move that will at least improve the One Nation founder’s public profile, and possibly provide her with another public funding boost, Ms Hanson today confirmed to AAP she would be standing.
But the former Ipswich fish and chip shop owner and disendorsed Liberal candidate declined to say which seat, preferring to improve her chances with a gala announcement later in the campaign. ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25100446-5013404,00.html
Fredex, that is a really silly comment. Newspoll does its state polls by accumulating results of state questions conducted at the same time as the fortnightly Federal polls. So NSW and Vic are done every 2 months, QLD, WA and SA every 3-4 months. It’s all a matter of accumulating enough surveys to have a big enough sample. So any state Newspoll is an accumulation of many weeks of polling, not a fortnightly snapshot like the Federal poll.
The normal quarterly Newspoll would be out in early April. Seeing it is currently late February, it is hard to see how Newspoll could have had a quarterly Newspoll waiting. Given the cost of doing opinion polls, the Australian pay for a single parse Newspoll in the last week of the election. And if they think the election is interesting enough, they also conduct a poll at the start of the election campaign.
Given Ms Hanson only has until 12 noon on Tuesday 3rd March 2009 to nominate I think she better get her gala organised real quick.
Doesn’t that beg the question, how useful is an opinion poll conducted over four months?
Apparently next Monday is the date, ruawake.
Not according the the Qld Electoral Commission.
“I’m sorry that I’m quite evasive about this at the moment, but there’s a lot happening and I just can’t say too much,” Ms Hanson told AAP.
Maybe Pauline’s UAP will stand candidates in multiple seats???
Ooops sorry Oz. I misunderstood your comment.
I was talking about Pauline Hanson announcing the seat the will contest.
Yes thats why I apologised @ 59.
Oops, didn’t see it.
What’s happening, do you think? Is she going to flip a coin or roll a die?
Serious question.
Is it possible for an individual to contest more than one seat at the same election?
“If, at noon on the cut-off day for the nomination of candidates
for the election, a person nominated as a candidate for
election for the electoral district is also nominated for election
for another electoral district, each of the nominations is of no
effect.”
So no.
No. If you nominate for more than a single seat, all your nominations are declared invalide.
Oz, it does beg that question, but I don’t see anyone complain when Newspoll publishes the state polls accumulated over time. There is no alternative. Opinion polls are expensive. Why do you think we haven’t seen a Fairfax poll publich an opinion poll for a long time.
The Australian reckons that a One Nation candidate will contest Condamine where the sitting LNP member is also facing off against a former LNP MP now running as an independent.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25100446-601,00.html
AC Neilson were doing a poll for the Qld Govt (ALP) a couple of weeks ago, so I am sure that Ms Bligh has a good grasp on current feelings about, health, education, public transport, infrastucture, ambulance, police, economic and water issues.
We may get a Galaxy poll next week, but Qld is notoriously difficult to poll accurately without a huge sample. It is more likely we will get some polling on some marginal seats.
Oz
Rod Watson is the ON candidate for condamine – he nominated a while ago.
Scrap my theory about Pauline’s UAP standing candidates for the election – they are not a registered party in Qld.
One Nation candidate in Condamine is Rod Watson, was announced months ago.
As long as I’ve been doing Qld elections, the polling we see is little 200 vote samples in marginal seats. From memory, they are done by the advertising staff of the Courier-Mail and Sunday Times and usually get a run in the Sunday papers. Such polls are lifelines for Sunday papers, who have to try and come up with a headline on a Sunday that nobody elese has ferretted out during the week.
For state elections, newspapers in good times will pay for one poll, in the last week. If the election is thought interesting, a second poll will be done in the first week or two. The Australian did one in the first week of the WA election, but that was the recent exception.
Galaxy polls have usually been payed for by all the state News Limited papers pitching in and sharing the cost. One model has been to do a Federal poll as a leader on all state Sunday papers, and Queensland could try piggy-backing a state poll with it.
The C-M may pay for a seperate Galaxy poll but may baulk at the cost. Better to do what they have always done, the 200 sample polls in marginal seats.
Anthony,
What makes the polling so expensive? I’ve never understood why there isn’t more of it
From the numbers on this newspoll, @750 respondants. Say Newspoll get 10 hang ups in their ear for every single person who agrees to take part,
7,500 calls at $0.30 per call makes $2,250. Hire a few students at $10 per hour.
what am I missing?
The minimum wage.
ruawake – what’s the minimum wage? Would it change the picture materially?
My guess is that polling isn’t expensive, its that there is no payback to the origniator of the poll for their outlay..I mean..how do you control the content?
The minimum wage for full time employees is $14.31 per hour – higher for casuals. So the wage cost just for the callers would be about $20,000.
Then you need the data to be input into some kind of system, I would suggest compters are invoved.
Then the company needs to make some profit – at a rough guess I would say a poll of the size you suggest would cost around $50,000.
And let us not forget Rua the costs of wining and dining the polling bloggers, the lavish trips, the brown paper bags of dosh and the odd sports car or two just to get us to write about their wares
I would assume marsupials would need an automatic sports car – thus increasing the costs.
RUawake
$20K labour costs??? at $14.31 per hour = 1,398 hours
For 750 calls???
Jeez – I should have been a pollster – I think I just found a new career aspiration
Squiggle
I think your original comment mentioned a few more calls than 750?
Then these “students” need some kind of “office” to make the calls from, then someone has to pay for the telephony infrastructure – ever heard of Lucent – they make sh*t hot stuff.
Or do you think polling is done by someone sitting in their loungeroom with a $15 mobile cap??
Mr Squiggle!! You could do the poll using the pencil on your nose!
I wonder if anybody has told the Young Nationals that there is an election campaign in progress yet? It seems sacking the President might be more important.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/bastardry-in-bundamba-young-lnp-to-sack-candidate/2009/02/24/1235237607884.html
Lawrence Springborg… Oops…
“With regards to this global financial crisis, it is again the triumph of salesmanship over substance in Queensland where the Government is trying to align an issue which is external, which is only peripheral to what’s happening in Queensland,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/24/2500042.htm
“A LIBERAL National Party candidate who praised himself for putting in solar panels at his campaign office has installed them facing the wrong way.
They are facing south – away from the sun”…
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25100679-3102,00.html
Fargo, it’s not the first time he has expressed that view on that subject. He is also on record as claiming volcanoes are the cause of global warming. Denial of the existence of major problems is one area where he is consistent and why he has been in Parliament a long time and achieved little.
Mr Squiggle
I was going to ask the exact same question. Then I thought by the time the pollster took the age and sex and asked their questions, they might only get 10 per hour. That means 100 hours of labour at say $20 per hour with on-costs. Then you need the analysis, weighting by demographic, rent and say 3000 calls at 30c. I thought it might be about $8,000 for a single decent poll.
I’d love to know what it really is. Blogs like the Daily Kos did it for the US election. Crikey must be thinking about it. Perhaps William and Possum know.
You cannot be serious…
This poster would struggle to get a job as a pollster or psephologist.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097851-5013457,00.html
Diog
Excuse me if I am wrong.
You say 1 person may get 10 people per hour. So to get a sample of 1000 would take 100 people an hour?
100x $20 = $2,000 sounds reasonable.
What is the cost of having 100 phone lines into a premises? Look at your phone cost per line per month. Lets err on the low side and say its $20 per line.
20×100 = $2,000 per month, the cost for a phone system that can handle 100 lines, yes I used to sell them, $200,000 minimum.
The cost just to install a phone socket in an office $30 plus cabling at $10. Another $4000
So hardware costs about $204,000, line rental $2,000 per month, wages $2,000 per day call costs about $900 per day.
Yearly costs about $1 million plus $250,000 plus in just telephony equipment.
If you think a poll can be done for $8,000 that goodness you are a doctor.
Re survey costs.
Interviewer costs are much higher than some have suggested. The market research industry negotiates an award with the NUW – current hourly rates for interviewers are $21.72 casual, $17.38 permanent. And higher rates apply depending on time/day. Most research companies conform to these rates – the main exception being Morgan who has a long history of ripping off his workers – he treats them as contractors rather than employees. For details see http://www.amsro.com.au/.
No way would interviewers get 10 and hour – the refusal rate is actually quite high. Maybe 4 or 5 an hour. So just in wage costs that’s about $5K. For 1,000 interviews you would need to make 10,000+ calls. Add on management, sampling, analysis, phone costs, rent etc. For a sample of 1000 you would be up for around $20K. Pus profit margin.
Scorpio, he’s probably forgotten this one.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_state_election,_1977
ruawake
I was thinking more of about 20 phone-lines/ people getting 50 respondents over a weekend. Winston’s $20,000 looks a lot more realistic than my $8,000.
So how often can political parties afford to do polling at that rate? They must rely on mini-polls and “focus groups” with pretty huge margins of error.
Has the LNP said they will be putting Pauline Hanson last on their How to Vote cards?
If they don’t they could upset a lot of urban voters.
Any idea which seat she is going to run for?
If Hanson wants to win a seat she will head for Gympie, if it’s just another money making scam anywhere else basically. One Nation held Gympie until the last election but their campaign came adrift once the Member for Gympie made her famous “A dog ate my Popsicle” speech. Hanson will let us know what her decision is next Monday, I believe.
Dio,
Research is expensive. Political parties actually don’t do much research at all between elections. It’s only during the campaign that they get serious about research – usually polling a small number (~200) per night to build a rolling sample.
Focus groups are usually used to test messages and advertising – but they aren’t cheap either – around $5K per group.
She might run in a marginal Labor seat where the margin is 2% or less.
Got a full transcript?
Would Bligh have run a poll before deciding whether to call an election or just used the last Newspoll, which we’ve learnt was really quite dated?
Steve, this is a good one too.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queensland_state_election,_1983
Bligh would have been influenced by internal Labor polling.
Dio,
Yes, I’m sure Bligh would have done some research – although not to so much to measure voting intention as to assess issues and messages.
However, i don’t think it was research which prompted her to call an election but what they know about the future state of the Qld economy. They believe that it will be much harder to be re-elected in September.
ShowsOn the untimely demise of Popsicle is recorded on page 4361. Hansard 29/11/05
http://parlinfo.parliament.qld.gov.au/isysquery/acca0d6a-dda8-4c71-99e2-3a6687432195/1/doc/2005_11_29_WEEKLY.pdf#xml=http://parlinfo.parliament.qld.gov.au/isysquery/acca0d6a-dda8-4c71-99e2-3a6687432195/1/hilite/
Companies like Newspoll, Nielsen and Morgan do their surveys as an adjunct to normal market research. When you do one of these surveys, you get the political questions first then all the market research on products and services, have you seen such and such an ad, etc.
All the rates are set on the basis of sample size and number of questions. It’s not cheap to do, from memory so many thousand dollars per question. A standard Federal Newspoll has a minimum 5 questions, usually more, and you’d have another 5 on state politics added at the same time which are then accumulated every certain number of months.
Then there are other questions, most important issues, etc. It’s all very expensive. To do it as a stand alone survey seperate from the market research is even more expensive.
Whenever you see a survey with a high undecided, it is usually because they cut costs by asking only one question on voter behaviour, where all the big companies probe the undecided on which way they are leaning. That is another question and costs.
Additional Notes on Green preferences.
Seats where a candidate other than a ALP or LNP candidate came either first or second in final count in 2006: (Figures extracted from ECQ website unless otherwise stated).
NOOSA (Lib v Ind) – Greens vote at exhaustion 2985 from 2771 primary. Exhausted 1327 or 44.46%. Distributed- 1658 with 27.72% to ALP, 29.32% to Ind (Kate Molloy), 42.96% to Lib.
NICKLIN (IND v NPA) – Greens vote at exhaustion 1836 from 1836 primary. Exhausted 685 or 37.31%. Distributed- 1151 with 22.24% to ALP, 65.33% to Ind (Peter Wellington), 12.42% to NPA.
MARYBOROUGH (IND v ALP) – Greens vote at exhaustion 1387 from 1387 primary. Exhausted 550 or 39.65%. Distributed- 837 with 22.46% to ALP, 64.16% to Ind (Chris Foley), 13.88% to NPA.
GYMPIE (NPA v IND) – Greens vote at exhaustion 3088 from 2598 primary. Exhausted 1117 or 36.17%. Distributed- 1971 with 15.78% to ALP, 61.19% to Ind (Rae Gate), 23.03% to NPA.
TABLELANDS (NPA v One Nation) – Greens vote at exhaustion 819 from 789 primary. Exhausted 317 or 38.71%. Distributed- 502 with 60.56% to ALP, 26.10% to One Nation (Rosa Lee Long), 13.35% to NPA.
Additional comment- NPA excluded last, with vote at exhaustion 4706 of 4574 primary. Exhausted 2797 or 59.43%. Distributed- 1909 with 84.49% to One Nation and 15.51% to ALP.
The new seat of Dalrymple (made up of parts of Tablelands and Charters Towers) could be fascinating, and I would expect that the ALP will be excluded, and that many ALP non-exhausting voters will ‘return the favour’ and preference One Nation ahead of the LNP. The critical issue probably being the exhaustion rate. Antony Green reports that: “On the new boundaries, the Liberal National first preference vote was 34.9% in 2006, One Nation 32.4% and Labor 28.8%. One Nation did not contest Charters Towers in 2006, which means the redistribution calculations underestimate One Nation support at the 2006 election.” – http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/dalr.htm
GLADSTONE – (IND v ALP) no Greens candidate
NANANGO– (IND v NPA) no Greens candidate
Antony
What about Essential Research? They have been great for this site but they don’t get mentioned in the media much. They seem to run more polls than anyone at the moment. They’re obviously not doing it out of the goodness of their hearts. Are they doing it as a loss leader in the hope of becoming a big player or is something else going on?
I agree that Gympie would be a likely seta for Pauline Hanson to stand in, if she stands at all. One Nation however has not held Gympie since Ms Roberts, having won it as a One Nation candidate in 2001, resigned from the One Nation party in 2002. She stood in 2004 as an independent and won with an increased majority (from memory) before standing again in 2006 but securing less than 10%.
Fargo, it would be a blow to the Nationals to have the most likely replacement for Springborg defeated at the forthcoming poll but them’s the breaks if they refuse to put their best talent in the Shadow Ministry.
Thanks! I’ll read with great interest.
That is one big plus for having independents and small parties in Parliament. Sometimes their speeches just boggle the mind.
As I recall it, One Nation was originally pro the Traveston Crossing Dam but changed side once the heat and pressure began to build. It will be interesting to see what position Hanson would take. She might cast herself as Chief Green.
It’s a real piece of work. I felt like cut and pasting the entire thing.
No wonder we don’t need an upper house here. Wth One Nation and the National Party three ring circus of Springborg, McArdle and Nicholls it is a never ending drama. Remember when the Liberals were going to hold a Lucky Dip to break the Liberal deadlock?
When the merger happened they had to make McArdle Deputy Leader and Nicholls Shadow Treasurer to keep the factions on side. Traditionally in Queensland the National has been Leader and the Liberal both Deputy Leader as well as Treasurer. I am still waiting for Nicholls and Mc Ardle to explain to journalists their economic policy, it will make Springborg’s effort today look like sheer genius.
Labor now $1-45 down from $1.60 a few weeks ago.
http://www.way2bet.com.au/odds_comparison/21362/21363/46155/Queensland+State+Election
With the mob of clowns in the LNP, the odds for Labor will probably be down to $1.05 within two weeks.
Is it my imagination, but is the Labor slogan “Keeping Qld Strong” a direct steal from one of the “Joh and the Nationals” slogans from the 80s?
Even if that’s not true, it’s incredibly scary. Strength is what we look to dictatorships for, in normal situations…
For those of you who are wondering, my Queensland blogging activities over the next few weeks will be conducted at Crikey’s new Pineapple Party Time blog. I’m keeping this thread open for now, but I’ll be ending discussion of the campaign on this site when I get time to announce the changeover with a little more fanfare. Coverage of matters federal and in other states will continue as normal at the Poll Bludger.
William,
Will your election guide be posted at the new site, or here? (Or both?)
Whilst the polls don’t show it at this point Queenslanders are fed up with Anna Bligh and her spineless Labor team.
Queenslanders are crying out for a pro-development anti-environmentalist Government that will drive more and more people out of poverty.
Recently a new rail line and port was approved by the State Government in Central Queensland this project was rejected by Federal Environment minister Peter Garrett and not a word of Protest from Premier Bligh. The Shoalhaven development would have provided thousands of jobs for people in the Rockhampton area crying out for employment. Labor no longer is the party of full employment.
The new look LNP will stand up for Queensland like previous National Party Governments did against Canberras interference in Queensland growth and development. One must question Newspoll in particular I remember seeing a picture of the staff of Newspoll all based in Sydney will little knowledge of Queenslands unique political culture. The staff look really ethnic and i can imagine them making mistakes like thinknig Birdsville was a suburb of Brisbane. The polls just aren’t accurate when people telephoning can’t even speak proper english to gauge voter opinion.
Paul Nash,
Doesn’t matter how good their English, they would never get a sensible answer from a forkwit like you.
“2% Refused, Excluded” comes to mind Greeny.
The Borg is one with the people. How can he run and get rejected again. surely he’ll have to dissappear after this. is this 3rd time lucky or 4th time lucky?
Yeah don’t get me started on those ethnics. I mean, they are infiltrating the LNP. Just look at some of the names:
Ostapovitch, Langbroek, Frizzell, Caltabiano. There’s no way they’ll have ANY idea about how to run QLD. They’ll think they are in the Mediterranean, or the Middle East.
Yes but shows on they are from countries who would have been allies with the Germans during WW2, croatia, italy, austria- need i say more?
The Nash will be voting one Nation- anyway. I don’t know why he is wading into the conversation
Is Paul nash serious or taking the piss?
Paul Nash (118) – Straight out of the LNP offices? If the polls change significantly I’ll take some notice of what you say until then I see it as wishful thinking on your part.
I certainly won’t be voting One Nation as I Know its secrets OLdfield, Ettridge and Hanson all ex?
I hope the people of Beaudesert make sure Hanson doesn’t even get her deposit back.
Oooh, the Bohemian Grove of the moonbat right!
WHAT! You are going to support all the ethnics in the LNP! They will FAIL TO RUIN THE ENVIRONMENT! We need more ENVIRONMENTAL DESTRUCTION to ensure the ETHNIC FACTION of the LNP understands Queensland properly.
But Show’s Own they are most likely German collaborators and peoples exempt from the white Australia policy. There are no wogs, paki’s or nips amongst them.
Or good Greeks such i myself
I feel a snip coming on
Hanson will be running in Beaudesert where longstanding Nat MP Kev Lingard is retiring.
No Possum more like a Prussian form of Liberalism
Anyway Showson,
No stirring from this blog can conceal my excitement at voting at this upcoming Queensland election for finally after 12 years of living in the Metropolitan seat of Clayfield I finally have a party I can feel proud to vote for.
Its like 1983 and 1986 revisited in Metropolitan Brisbane
Just remember, that party has already been infiltrated by ETHNICS. So if you vote for them, they’ll let other ETHNICS steal your JOB.
Except this time there are MORE ETHNICS.
Showson when moved form my hometown of Toowoomba to Sydney in the early 1990s I relised where the majority of ethnics lived and its not in sunny Brisbane its in the Southern capitals. I remember travelling in the train to work every morning from Strathfield to Town Hall and they were everywhere. I’m so lucky I came back to Queensland I feel a lot more comfortable and secure.
Under a Labor government. Hmm
BUT THE ETHNICS ARE COMING! One thousand ETHNICS a week! They are going to steal your job, marry your daughters, blow up your car, make ETHNIC FOOD in your kitchen, steal your DOG and put it in ETHNIC STEW, infiltrate your BELOVED political party, in order to take over the ENTIRE STATE, then it will be renamed ETHNICLAND.
i think pauline hanson has infiltrated the site. but she was from Ipswich wasn’t she?
The Country to National Party as always fought population increase and demographic change to remain a permanent fixture on Australia’s political landscape.
or LALA LAND
But Nash it’s in the Bible it says “The Greek will inheret the Earth”
Cenaur009 lets get one thing straight Pauline Hanson was a Liberal and her right hand man David Oldfield was a Sydney Liberal who served on the Manly council before he met Hanson he worked for Tony Abbott. NO ONE HAS THE CONCRETE PROOF YET BUT ONE DAY THE REAL TRUTH ABOUT ONE NATION WILL COME OUT AND IT WILL SHOCK PEOPLE.
And yet they PRESELECTED ETHNICS by BILL O’CHEE!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_O%27Chee
THAT THEY HAVE INFILTRATED THE ETHNICALLY INFILTRATED LNP!
Oh show’s On I was thinking live sacrifice and orgies- with PH that would really shock people
I THINK MY CAPS LOCK IS STUCK
When was the last time a State leader lead their Party to three successive election defeats?
Almost certainly Frank Nicklin and he went on to be Premier of Queensland for decade.
Good point Diogenes,
IN Queensland Sir Frank Nicklin worked and chiped away from 1943 until 1957 to achieve Government for the Country Party so it can happen with even more than three attempts. I think that lack of Loyalty in its leader lead to the National Party losing support in later periods.
Wow! I looked Frank Nicklin up and he lost five successive elections as leader over a 16 year period. And then to go on to be premier for ten years is pretty amazing. He must have been a remarkable guy.
Mind you Paul, he did become Premier after the unusual situation where Premier Vince Gair and all but one member of his cabinet were expelled from the Labor Party. Such spectacular splits don’t happen too often in politics.
Lets not also forget Antony the gentleman he was afterall Vince Gair offered him the Deputy Premiership of a QLP_Country Party Coalition Government but he stood for Loyalty to his Liberal Party Junior collegues who would soon try and cut his troat with the beginning of the three-cornered contests in the 1960’s.
Shades of Peter Beattie in the last days of a Joh Bjelke-Petersen!
As for the rise of 3-cornered constest, the reason they didn’t happen before Nicklin became Premier was because Queensland used first-past-the-post voting at the time. Nicklin knew that with first past the post voting, the ALP-QLP split would guarantee Coalition victory, as it did.
Both the Liberal and Country Parties wanted preferential voting exactly so they could again compete agianst each other, so it’s a bit rich to say the Liberals were trying to cut his throat. Both parties wanted preferential voting exactly so they could again compete against each other.
#139, Are we talking about the world of 2009 or 1869?
yes like germs, they were everywhere.
They must be everywhere, the LNP even pre-selects them to run for parliament!
Antony Green @ 157
You can’t compare the circumstances between Vince Gair’s polite offer to Frank Nicklin following the 1957 ALP split in QLD to form a stable Government to Peter Beattie trying to use an manipulate a hurt, fragile and vunerable Sir Joh in his attempt to bring down the Ahern National Party Government.
Sir Joh had experienced a year from hell in 1987 in his attempt to rid Australia from the A and B flickpass he loved Queensland and thought the Australian way should be the Queensland way to try and compare these two events is most disturbing.
And then ignorance comes along en masse after the Frome by-election where Libs whinge over Brock winning on Labor prefs.
Anyway enough tripping back into the past the new look LNP is fresh with a new vision and new ideas to take Queensland further to the right and make the Sunshine State shine above all the states throughout Australia and maybe some in the United States itself.
LNP and ALP won’t preference Pauline Hanson:
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/hanson-wont-get-preferences/2009/02/25/1235237704234.html
New branding, same stale vision. Parties win by moving to the centre, not to the extremes.
Will you still be posting here when the LNP lose the election?
Dio @ 151
Clyde Holding lost the 70/73/76 Victorian elections.
And I think his predecessor Clive Stoneham lost the previous 3.
WOW! Pyne gets warned for the third day in a row!
Paul Nash
I agree completely, we should put a fence around Queenland and kick out all those smelly ethnics
We should start with Anne Bligonski, Lawrence Springbogwitz, all Qld school kids should be taught Mein Kumf, we will need to invite the communist in. But if they were Chinese, we will have to kick them out again
We will all wear white conehead as well, I love Qld
Paul Nash
I agree completely, we should put a fence around Queenland and kick out all those smelly ethnics
We should start with Anne Bligonski, Lawrence Springbogwitz, all Qld school kids should be taught Mein Kumf, we will need to invite the communist in. But if they were Chinese, we will have to kick them out again
We will all wear white conehead as well, I love Qld
Wrong thread ShowsOn
Anna Bligh is likeable- I like her too. They will win and lose about 6 – 9 seats
Yes. Anna Bligh is new and fresh. Lawrence Springborg is old and stale.
One thing that voters in Queensland should be reminded of this election is that in the 20 years that Labor has dominated Queensland Politics they rarely run their full three years.
In 1992 Goss went early by three months
In 1995 Goss went early by two months
In 2001 Beattie went early by four months
in 2006 Beattie went early by five months
and in 2009 Bligh goes early by six months
Should Queensland voters reward Labor for not running their full three years I don’t think so its time for change. LABORS GOT TO GO
Wasn’t that Hewson’s rallying call in the 1993 election?
Yes we were in a midst of a recession then and where certainly in one now
LABORS GOT TO GO
No Paul the recession is a peripheral issue – get with the script.
Thats right after 10 years of boom just before a recession hits Labor in Queensland as left the state broke with little room to fight a Recession. Its just Socialism and its just not right weve suffered for long enough we need a strong direction and sense of right wing purpose.
LABORS GOT TO GO
Paul Nash, your post at 118 had this accusation. It is blatantly false. Please provide “ANY” proof that what you claim here contains even a remote semblance of truth.
Paul Nash, please have a read of the following link. It applies to YOU!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
PEOPLE WHO CAN’T USE APOSTROPHES HAVE GOT TO GO!
Surely Scorpio you can’t be getting offended by the Nash. In all seriousness, labor has it in the bag but how many seats are they likely to lose and how many to gain. what are the mrginals seriously at play?
centaur009 @ 182,
I don’t any of that is of concern to Mr Nash. His only concern appears to be to disrupt the thread with multiple, inflamatory comments which he hopes will get a response from posters who take the thread seriously and put forward sensible, well throughout comments which address the subject of the thread.
I don’t (think)any of that…
No, not offended at all, centaur009. I do though, think that Mr Nash is just wasting his time and William’s bandwidth.
Shows on
I think he meant both Labor party have to go, both state and federal
Paul Nash, that’s because QLD doesn’t have fixed terms, like federal.
In federal politics, the last election to be called following a completion of the entire term was the 1910 election.
Paul Nash, please learn the difference between a budget deficit and a recession. You’re a National so I can understand why you might have trouble grasping the concept, so here goes.
No state has recorded two quarters of negative growth. No states are in a recession (at least, one doesn’t spring to mind). The budgets have all gone in to deficit around the country because tax income has declined sharply. Look at the Liberal/National government in WA – it is also going in to a deficit because of this very reason. Should we assume WA Labor was superior to the WA Lib/Nats just because Labor ran a surplus whole the WA Libs/Nats are going in to deficit? No, governments don’t control the economy, the market does. And if you still think they do, you would probably pay for the bear patrol tax because the rock is keeping bears away.
Idiot.
bob1234
How do you explain Kevin Rudd spending $22 billion of our money on short term stimulus then, he thinks he can control the economy and prevent 300,000 job losses.
A government can attempt to influence the economy, but they cannot control it. Cash handouts are the short term stimulus, and the infrastructure spending is the medium and long term stimulus. The IMF, the RBA, the OECD, the Senate enquiry, and 95% of economists support the stimulus package that the Rudd government has proposed, which is very similar to the Obama package.
It’s a better recipe than a Liberal government which would just cut spending everywhere. Look what happened when they did that in the Great Depression.
No not similar to the Obama package at all, the obama package offer tax cut to all people who lodge tax, only those who does not lodge gets handout
This is because tax cut is a quick but longer term stimulus
Wrong
dovif, unlike the US, the Rudd government already has tax cuts being implemented every year. It was an election committment. So tax cuts are already there.
Not to mention the IMF, the RBA, the OECD, the Senate enquiry, and 95% of economists all agree that tax cuts are not a good economic stimulus.
The Daylight Saving Party (DS4SEQ) had previously announced that they would stand candidates in 69 seats, but has now announced that it “plans to field candidates in 20 to 30 seats, including Indooroopilly, Chatsworth, and electorates on the Gold Coast”.
“The only other single-issue party on the Queensland ticket, The Fishing Party (Qld), has pulled out of the race. Party leader Kevin Collins blamed a legal dispute with its rival, The Fishing Party, which was registered in NSW eight years ago and has asked the Administrative Appeals Tribunal to deregister the newer Queensland namesake.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25103217-5018775,00.html
Meanwhile, The Greens currently have 31 candidates listed on their website.
The Family First website is not currently showing candidates, although they have previously announced some in various local (eg – Quest) newspapers.
Paul Nash seems to share a similar IQ to his beloved Borg. How proud he must be.
Then again, perhaps its just a Qld coalition thing. I loved this story about the coalition candidate in a Brisbane seat who installed the solar panels on his roof facing south:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25100679-5018787,00.html
The really funny thing is that the installer said he was instructed to install them that way! Genius.
I don’t profess to be Nostradamus, but judging by how things are going at the moment I don’t see a change in government, even though ALP will lose a swag of seats. I think the end result will be a Bligh majority of something in the order of eight to fourteen seats.
Pauline Hanson has not a televangelist’s chance in Nimbin of winning Beaudesert; if she had even a two-digit IQ she should have selected a different electorate.
“Murray McNaught, manager of Infinity Solar, which installed the system facing south at Mr Pollard’s request, said the panels were generating enough power to run the campaign office but he could not predict how efficient they would be during winter.”
Winter? In Qld? Why weren’t we told?
Adam
Are you actually mellowing? That was funny.
Albert Ross, do you come with a wafer?
Bob, unless you are playing some obscure word game, that statement is clearly wrong. The 2007 federal election was more than three years after the 2004 one.
Whatever the faults of Colin Barnett, he’s no Springborg. Springborg’s not electable in the Brisbane seats that he would need to win.
This ain’t going to be WA all over again.
Bob, labor was in power federally from 1929 to 1932.
dyno, bob is correct. Albeit pedantically so.
A federal parliamentary term expires not three years after the last election, but three years after the term’s first sitting of parliament.
Recall that Howard had parliament prorogued when he called the 2007 election.
Dovif 190
The coalition was happy enough to promise $20 billion in LONG TERM tax cuts prior to the previous election without linking it to any job creation or long term financial outcomes. Were they not in control of the economy?
Dyno, a 3 year term commences from the first day of sitting of the new parliament. Not the election. The last term to go the full three years was prior to the 1910 election.
Both Labor and the conservatives lowered spending, 1929-1932, and after 1932. The depression lasted for most of the 1930s.
ruawake
Posted Wednesday, February 25, 2009 at 5:36 pm | Permalink
No not similar to the Obama package at all, the obama package offer tax cut to all people who lodge tax…
Wrong
Ruawake
it would be helpful, if you are reporting facts before saying someone is wrong, instead of uttering rubbish
Sometimes reading helps, here are some links
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009#Aid_to_low_income_workers.2C_unemployed_and_retirees_.28including_job_training.29
Note Tax cut for all, handout for pensioners and low income (ie non lodgers)
http://obama.3cdn.net/8335008b3be0e6391e_foi8mve29.pdf
Note Tax cut for all, handout for pensioners and low income (ie non lodgers)
if you’re not lodging a tax return due to low income, how do you get taxed on your income, and thus get a tax cut?
That is why I said American’s plan is for tax cut, which is different than Australia’s. People who do not get tax cuts, get cash handout, which is the american plan. Ruawake throught I was wrong, not sure which stimulus plan he was looking at.
Tax cut has some effect on the economy, howard’s 20billion tax cut can stimulate the economy, but the stupid reserve bank was raising interest rate by 3% in late 07 and early 08 which stopped the economy, that had a much bigger effect on the economy. I cannot believe any of those clowns still has a job.
I think jobs are the key at the moment, if people are going to lose their job they are not going to spend …. which increase the chance of them losing their job!!!
Obama’s speach was brilliant, he gave hope to the American people (who are in a economy 10 time worse than ours) He told them that recession will only last 2 year which was great, it might not be the true, but optimism will help the world get out much quicker. I think Rudd and Gillard are making a big mistake, they are saying it will be bad, but it is not their fault. This might absolve them of blame, but a positive message like Obama’s, could mean it does not get “bad” in the first place.
I would be happy to forgo my $900, if the Government use the money to build rail lines for example, the rail line will employ people in the construction phase, and then once completed, will led to employment of train builder, drivers, cleaners. This would create jobs, while cash handout has almost no effect, as it is not permanent and school halls will have little effect too.
how did raising interest rates stop the Australian economy? We’re still growing at 3% a year, down from a peak of 5%?
dovif
95% of people in the US will recieve a tax cut, 5% will not, so your comment is wrong.
Thanks for providing the links to disprove your case.
Mackerras predicts a 5% swing, Labor to retain government by 11 seats.
Possum has started an open thread at the Pineapple Party Time blog, so I’ll take this opportunity to direct the discussion over there.