A very well timed Newspoll survey of 752 respondents shows Anna Bligh’s Labor government looking well placed with a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred – although this may be based on an unduly generous preference estimate. On the primary vote, Labor holds a narrow lead of 43 per cent to 42 per cent. This marks a correction from an aberrant looking result in the last quarter of 2008, when Labor led 45 per cent to 37 per cent (57-43 on two-party preferred). Normally Newspoll’s Queensland surveys are quarterly, with samples of over 1000 – obviously this one been cut short and rushed into service.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland
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212 Comments
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Yes, three years of the Nationals, Springborg doing nothing, developing no economic policy and presiding over a screeching divided rabble in Parliament has all been preparation for this result. Well done!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/calculator/
53-47 does seem a bit generous from 43-42. Last time, did most Greens votes exhaust or go to Labor?
Fargo has done the Green preference figures here.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/02/23/queensland-election-march-21/comment-page-2/#comment-241925
Here’s Mumble trying to gee up the tory troops.
http://www.mumble.com.au/
Steve, his form his good:
http://www.mumble.com.au/index_oldish43.html
2008 even
Mumble put his hard earnt money on the Liberal Party forming Govt. in the ACT.
Anyone see a trend in his predictions?
I don’t see this newspoll telling us all that much. It is less than 800 voters over a one and a half month period. I just hope a 1000 person poll is done over this comming weekend so we can get a really good indication of where each party stands.
In a musical mood this morning, so to quote a Radiohead song ‘No alarms, no surprises.
Mumble also told us to put our money on John McCain in Nov 2008. If you throw enough stones at a building, you’re gonna break a window sooner or later.
I have a feeling that Mumble was predicting a Liberal Party win federally in 2007 too?
ruawake – looking at that entry, not a prediction (hence your choice of words), just playing the percentages.
Diogenes – yes Brent talked up McCain’s chances much too much, in contradiction to his usual wisdom about the nature of the electoral cycle.
Kit – hell no.
First conservative ex-Nat Independent to run – Stuart Copeland
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25098838-952,00.html
Priceless! The LNP’s best asset in campaigning for metropolitan seats wont support them and the ALP’s best asset, Barnaby Joyce is going to campaign for them.
Should be an interesting election campaign.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25097382-952,00.html
What’s the point of this:
Considering the LNP only exists in one state, at most there can only be two LNP “government leaders”.
Mumble consistently predicted a Labor victory federally in 07 for a long time (years) before the election. Anyone who thinks he’s a cheerleader for the Liberals isn’t paying attention. Sometimes he’s wrong and sometimes he’s right but he’s not biased.
He also gave up on McCain long before November – he changed his mind when Palin was brought on board.
No he isn’t biased, but he’s been wrong about as much as he’s right, so I wouldn’t be hanging off too much of what he says
Has Malcolm Mackerras made a prediction yet? He has been right more times than he has been wrong.
Yes, LNP.
Really? Link please.
Wait sorry, I thought you said Mumble for some reason.
As of three weeks ago, Mackerras was tipping the ALP
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24866022-5006786,00.html
Sorry, that was Mackerras’s tip at the start of the year, not 3 weeks ago
I had to break my hiatus Re the rather uninformed comments re Mumble
1. obviously those here dont remember the “poll wars” or mumble ripping shannas a new one
2. So he gets some wrong-big deal but his unbiased analysis is the closest we have in this country to learned opine
3. To suggest he is a liberal lackey demeans the poster(s) who wrotesuch. They are obviously of v. short memories
“dont shoot the messenger”
Mackerras is putting his money on the Borg! Surely, that spells doom for Anna!
Not at last count he wasn’t
“Surely, that spells doom for Anna!”
Knowing Mackerras, it probably spells doom for the Borg!
#25
Also mumble seems to be a big believer in the electoral ‘cycle’: i.e. the bar gets higher for governments and lower for oppositions the longer a party’s in power. Given we’re now seeing some decade-old labor governments up for re-election, it’s not surprising he’d be predicting Liberal victories.
LNP Hospital pledge to deliver more beds for less money.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/lnps-175b-hospital-pledge/2009/02/24/1235237620882.html
And let me guess, there economic policy is to produce a budget surplus by cutting taxes?
Yay, a PPP for a children’s hospital.
They worked so well with the transport sector.
In other news, the President of the Young LNP who is contesting a seat in this election has been kicked out of his position.
LNP’s are ducking for cover allready;)
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/qld-magnate-cancels-media-conference-20090224-8gak.html
The opposition’s policy from the 2006 election backs the single hospital concept, as recommended by the state’s Review of Paediatric Cardiac Services.
“Currently specialist services are fragmented across a number of different hospitals,” the policy said.
“The review makes it quite clear that this is not best practice for ensuring quality care for our children”.
Are we going to have one dumb policy change per day from the LNP ?
William, Poss and Mark Bahnisch have started the Pineapple Party Time Blog.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/
William’s article is excellent about Qld, although I’m still recovering from the torrent of abuse when I put his argument a little more forcefully yesterday.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20090224-Blighs-calculated-gamble-should-bear-fruit.html
Diog, If you think about it, the only political interest for her to call the election early would be Labor is ahead in the polling – but they’ve been ahead in most of the polling for along time. Beside that, this wouldn’t be the greatest time for her and Labor to go to the polls.
Diog, I agree with your comments 99% of the time and find your posts interesting. But I come from Qld and see how long the courious snail election speculation articles have been going on, it became old real quick.
Against Ray Hopper, who beat a National candidate in Cunningham a few years ago as an independent, then turned around and joined the party. Wouldn’t it be funny if he went out the same way, to Copeland?
Anyone know if Mal Brough will campaign??
I guess he’s only interested in federal politics if any…
dogma
What did you think about Mike Steketee’s article today saying that Labor were the ones fanning the flames to provoke self-fulfilling commentary about an early election? I have no idea if it’s true or not but he seems to be one of the few OO journos who is fairly impartial.
In the final analysis, it isn’t really a big issue unless there’s some REALLY bad news to come that Bligh knows and we don’t.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097851-5013457,00.html
I don’t think Mr Springborg will ask for his help.
Diog, considering the article’s didn’t name Labor of any of their sources until Bligh commented yesterday, they seem to be covering their collective asses, as JB will attest to the mejia is not above it. Bligh said she made the final date last weekend. I still think that she wanted to go full term, to get more major projects started, but businesses were starting to say, we’ll wait until we know which government will be in place after the election. That can’t happen in this economic climate.
Happy debating will be off for a while, be back later.
Surprise, surprise, Hanson to run:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25100435-29277,00.html
I am pretty sure Mumbel has been pretty accurate recently, I think he bet on the Lib to win in WA (at about $4) and tipped them, he was right in the ACT election, he picked the Lib will go close in NT. Bet on the NSW Lib at $1.9 (wish I could get some of that odd). He switch to Obama.
On 2PP terms, the Carpenter WA government’s opinion poll was better than Bligh Qld ALP before calling an early election. The next poll will be telling
#37 There was talk of a mid March poll as early as the first week of December from those in the know. Certainly wasn’t decided ‘last weekend’. Beattie did the same thing in 01, 04 and 06. Classic ‘crisis management to claim a mandate tactic’ 01 was the Townsville rorts scandal, 04 was children’s services, 06 health crisis, this time its the economy.
“Normally Newspoll’s Queensland surveys are quarterly, with samples of over 1000 – obviously this one been cut short and rushed into service”
Seems like the OO and clones were caught short.
Which is strange given that they have been constantly saying for a fair while that an election was ‘imminent’.
Maybe they really didn’t believe themselves otherwise they could have had the Newspoll sitting in reserve waiting to go fully formed.
This last sentence from Mike Steketee’s article demonstrates just how “impartial” he really is. It also demonstrates to the readers that political commentators such as him, regard the political process as nothing more than “spectator sport” and that the continued well-being of the Australian people takes a back seat.
No proper analysis about which side will provide proper and effective govenence of the State. No. Just base your vote on whether or not you think the current Government should be tossed out because Steketee thinks they should be kicked in the shins. Tosser.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25097851-5013457,00.html
Barnaby Joyce on PM Agenda just said Anna Bligh will re-introduce death duties in Qld. I think this election will set a low point in gutter politics.
Yeah and she will probably re-introduce capital punishment and flogging in the stocks as well. Good one Barnaby!
Nah thats the LNP anti-hoon policy.
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