The latest weekly Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 62-38. Also included are an interesting question on what Peter Costello should do (34 per cent quit, 46 per stay in various possible capacities), along with very detailed material on economic management. Not only but also:
• A comprehensively briefed Andrew Landeryou at VexNews explains the background to the Victorian Liberal Senate preselection vote to be held this Friday. Michael Ronaldson seems assured of retaining his top position, but Julian McGauran faces an uphill battle for third place against Ross Fox, a Peter Costello backer. The second place is reserved for the Nationals.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports on a NSW Liberal state executive ruling that new members in Bradfield will not be eligible to vote in the preselection to replace Brendan Nelson, to be held in nine months. Normally party rules require membership for six months for eligibility, but that would be an invitation to mass branch stacking in the current circumstances. Coorey also weighs in on recent shenanigans in the Perth seat of Tangney.
• Tasmanian LHMWU secretary David O’Byrne has confirmed he will seek preselection as a candidate for Franklin at next year’s state election. O’Byrne is a former state party president and brother of Bass MP Michelle O’Byrne. Among the Liberal candidates will be Vanessa Goodwin, who narrowly failed to defeat the now-departed Paula Wreidt at the 2006 election.
1,522 Comments
The whole purpose of privitising power is to have multiple private retailers! That’s how you get multiple companies competing against each other to provide power to consumers for the cheapest prices.
I think it makes sense keeping the distribution in public hands (the actual power lines etc) but privatising the maintenance of it. I also think the generation should be privatised, because fossil fuel power stations SHOULD be worthless in 20 or 30 years time, so it is criminal for the government to retain assests that will effectively be worthless within a few decades.
Wouldn’t it be better for them just to legislate on standards, and spend money on consumer affairs to police those standards?
Of course cheap flights are matter! If flights are cheaper MORE PEOPLE CAN AFFORD THEM!
I am still waiting for Shows on to provide me evidence about the amount of flights Qantas undertook before Privatisation and after… i look forward to it…
Like,say, the ummm, Financial markets
I can buy Gvt power and appliances or private power and appliances.
I thought it was called choice???
Privatising puts quality of services a long way behind the profit motive. Theoretically you may end up with the least possible acceptable service provided at the maximum possible cost that a company can get away with and, because it is an essential service people have no choice.
And because infrastructure are extremely expensive items you wont see too much competition in the market to increase service quality and keep costs down.
I think it a little optimistic to believe that competition among a very few providers doesn’t tend to promote cartel type behavior.
Perhaps it is the Commonwealth Bank, more banks after privatistation, especially in regional areas.
Dave back at 1177 (in the last thread – new one came up while I was typing
):
Yeah, well it would be quick and dirty as Antony says, and not great for an election. Then again, that kind of distance and lack of similarity between places ain’t unheard of – pre-redistribution, WA had a seat called Kalgoorlie which contained both Kunnunurra and Esperance (a good 4000 km apart by road). Now there’s one containing Kalgoorlie, Albany, and small farming towns an hour’s drive from Perth. That’s weird too, but I guess it’s the way the cookie crumbles.
How would the two relevant electorates be found, by the way? I’m guessing just list all the pairs of adjacent electorates (gee, that’d be fun with NSW), add the enrolments of each pair, then sort and find the lowest? Or do the AEC have some other funky way?
As a related boredom buster, try and find the weirdest combination of sitting members in adjacent seats that get merged. Dickson and either Wide Bay or Maranoa would be fun to watch – super-marginal Lib vs old, old Nat guys. Who else… hmm. Julie Bishop and Stephen Smith? Peter Garrett and Malcolm Turnbull?
And for those that might have missed it and are interested Krugman gives a 50 minute address here on the US economy and ways to fix things.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/trevorcook/2009/02/28/paul-krugman-the-global-economy/
Before privatisation Qantas was only an international carrier, after it was privatised it was allowed to conduct both domestic and international flights. It’s number of destinations that it flys to is enormous now compared with before privatisation.
Boucher gone… 2 more to win!
I think that’s it.
Yep competition is answer, so eventually when you have beaten your competitor what do you get a monopoly… And less service. Competition is about doing things at least price, least cost and least amount of service… The cheap customers don’t matter but the rich ones do.. and that is what happens greater services for them. Competition in essential services acheives nothing and plainly inequitable. It is about short term economics and helping consultants and lawyers earn big bucks and helping rich mates own the infrastructure and than get them to provide a nice donation before the election- simple.
So I don’t get it, would you buy something from a government shop when it would most certainly be more expensive than other places?
Why would you want to buy government appliances when they’d almost certainly be more expensive? I don’t want an Australian government made TV, when a Sony TV would be better and cheaper.
A tad more tangled than your oversimplification Shows
http://www.qantas.com.au/info/about/history/details20
Evidence, still waiting for some hard facts Shows On.
Yep so what we did was allow Qantas to gobble up the small regional players and control the market.
How many airlines have gone bust since we deregulated airline industry in Oz?
At the time Qantas was sold, Qantas was Australia’s international carrier, and Australian Airlines was the domestic carrier.
How many people do you think could afford to catch airplanes in Australia in 1947?
A person on average weekly earnings? Somehow I don’t think so.
If I knew the Gvt shop was still going to be there next week I would
Time i nodded off got to earn my pennies so i can afford those cheap airline prices, pity about the high prices i pay for privatised gas and electricity in Victoria.
You are arguing that the government should spend BILLIONS on airplanes, instead of things like schools and hospitals. This is not an argument I find convincing.
So why can’t you do that with a private retailer? And how do you know it would be there next week if a government decides to privatise it?
You should spend more, because your consumption of energy causes global warming.
HIH or Enron or ***** or whatever.
COS THE GVT WOULD OWN IT.
That is the thrust of my argument
Government’s come and go. Basicall you’re saying they it will stay open even if it doesn’t make any money.
So that means you want everything they sell to effectively be subsidised, which I think is just stupid. The private sector can sell things cheaper and more for less money.
I think you and GP share more in common than you suspect.
Spot the poll that was highjacked by an interest group.
http://www.theage.com.au/polls/national/results.html
The difference is I think there are some things the government should do, and other things the government MUST do. Whereas G.P. doesn’t seem to think the government should do anything.
Airlines were one of the best things the government could privatise. They are extremely costly to run, a single plane can cost nearly half a billion Australian dollars. I just can’t fathom a government spending that much money on an airplane instead of on a school or a hospital.
Australia WIN!
Australia wins!
Lead the series 1-0
http://www.travelweekly.com.au/articles/ae/0c0351ae.asp
In case you didn’t catch it first time:
See, I told you that you and GP are like peas in a pod.
The world economy has been growing exponentially since 1996. Many businesses and countries did the same. More wealth, more people able and willing to travel, greater profit margins possible and so forth. So the statistics don’t mean too much in isolation. Not that I think govt should own an international airline.
LOL!
The idea that Qantas somehow serves fewer routes and customers than before privatisation is a big fat myth.
Sure, but another factor is that privatised airlines are more competitive, and thus are able to offer cheaper tickets, which makes them more affordable, which means they can sell more tickets, which means they can make more revenue and expand their business.
Coalition leads Labor 56/44 in NSW:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25130375-601,00.html
What can they do in NSW? Like the L&NP the answer may be a thrashing in the polls. What they really need to see is 60/40 numbers to get the message home.
Article at 33:
‘Enjoyed’? That’s a helluva word in the context…
Isn’t it oppositions that are supposed to go through leaders like cheap home-brand socks? State oppositions, run by luminaries like Ian Evans or Paul Omodei? These guys are acting the part two years early. Absolutely ridiculous.
I’ve put up a NSW Newspoll post.
Iemma should’ve never been kicked. They had a very remote chance of winning with him, but with Rees they have no hope.
No 25
I support notion of public health and public education, among other things, so long as they co-exist with the private sector.
No 37
Iemma was no better. Typical imbecilic NSW Labor leader with a treasurer that should have joined the Liberal party.
“At the time Qantas was sold, Qantas was Australia’s international carrier”
What about Ansett, they did international flights too.
Fighting Depression
Unlike Obama’s spending plan, FDR’s had the support of the GOP, including his Fed chief.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-nelson2-2009mar02,0,1808586.story
Once upon a time the Republicans were interested in the country and not simply politics.
The Liberal Party should note, hoping for Rudd to fail rather than give aid to the country by supporting the government’s efforts, would define them as people who have no business in public office. There is a time and place where arguing on detail for political point scoring is harmful to the country.
Joe’s bloated gaseous exertions that loudly emanate from both ends simultaneously are reminiscent of a fiddler crab protecting is small pile of mud.
FDR named Eccles to the Fed in 1934, and designated him as the central bank’s first chairman in its newly reconstituted form in 1935.
I like this, on having a stimulus too small..
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25130414-5006787,00.html
Funny, I thought I recalled Rann saying the previous Liberal government also had 15 ministers? Who’s playing funny buggers here, the Oz, or Rann?
In that case GP, I suspect you are very disappointed with the Howard government? Health and Education when Howard came to power was amongst the highest in the OECD, when he left they were amongst the lowest.
the tories dont do well with hypocrisy Bob. Remember Howard was a friend of Medicare and of the workers…
Have you got figures though for the health and education OECD rankings??
Obama hasn’t done many “brave” things yet. This looks “courageous”, although the 80% in favour opinion poll of ending “don’t ask, don’t tell” should help.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25131681-5005962,00.html
Bob, i also thought the lib cabinet was 15, i could be wrong though i was more interested in getting them out rather than counting numbers.
I haven’t seen OECD “rankings” for health and education in a performance sense?
“figures” for OECD health rankings would be difficult, other than average life expectancy, which is affected by many things. % investment in health is not necessarily a good indicator. The USA spends a fortne on health but it gets a poor return due to its inefficient system of primary health care and two tiered approach. Likewise we spent a lot on health insurance here during Howard, but I expect real funding of public hospitals would have fallen.
OECD rankings on % investment in research and tertiary education would have fallen significantly under Howard though. We were one of the only nations that reduced investment (in % terms) during Howard’s time in office.
It shows.
Bob
Were you thinking of World Health Organisation (WHO) rankings of health systems? We have slipped a long way down that under Howard, now at No.33 (below Morrocco). See
http://www.photius.com/rankings/healthranks.html
Julie Bishop is Labor’s best friend, she really is. How many people will look at what she said and call it a load of Bull*&^%.
My God this woman is grasping at straws, any straw, even if she has to follow a creep like Rush Limbaugh who amazingly says the same thing about Obama and the democrats.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/03/2505618.htm
I might as well set myself up more more hate mail and explain one of evolution theories about why 2-10% of the population is homosexual because it’s esp relevant in this context. The theory is far from perfect, but it is interesting.
Homosexuality is partly genetically determined and would “breed out” in it’s pure form if it didn’t have a selection advantage. It hasn’t so there must be an evolutionary advantage to a species to having a certain number of homosexuals. The most popular theory is that there is an advantage to the species to having 5% or so of the population as “sterile workers”, ie they don’t divert their energies to reproduction. Their energies can be directed at pursuits like the military, which protect the species/race as a whole.
Before I get the usual complaints about reductionist science not being able to understand the mysteries of human behaviour, I agree that it’s far more complex than this theory would indicate.
How do you know it hasn’t?
Soc I have quoted that study in the past. Important things to note are that it is 2000 and looks at the efficiency levels/universality/ health care system in operation and not quality of care etc. Argueably we may well have some of the best facilities and staff in the world, but our system lets us down.
I propose we introduce a universal co payment system, $10 up front and $5 for pen/HCC, the rest is bulk billed. Service fees re generous and on a sliding scale with qualificatiobns and years of experience. Grandfather clause out the 30% rebate. Increase the medicare levy as required
Adam
Are you saying that homosexuality has been bred out? It hasn’t. The number of homosexuals has stayed pretty constant for ages.
This is absurd. Natural selection works at the individual level, not the species level. A genetic propensity not to reproduce will breed out regardless of how useful the non-breeding indivuiduals are to the species, because those individuals will not reproduce, duh. Thus, if homosexuality is indeed genetic (which is far from proved), it must have an offsetting selection advantage.
Yeah I heard here accuse Rudd of being a socialist. Is she planning to run against Sarah Palin for the 2012 Republican presidential primary?
Dio you must remember that homosexuality was a crime until recent years. Had it been tolerated in the past it may well have bred out. If you were homosexual in the past you just kept quiet, got maried and had kids like everyone else. I think it has been well demonstrated that there is a strong genetic link, I think even the limbic systems are lightly different.
The other factor to consider is the massive % of gay people being sexually abused . I think it’s many times the average populations
And the dress sense system.
Is it entirely possible that homosexuality arises due to environmental factors?
That should read slightly, and Ha ha shows on
Freud thought so, and so do many others. It’s an ongoing debate.
Shows, what a perfect description. Julie Bishop is talking like Sarah Palin. She was laugh at and scorned for saying unbelieveably stupid things in the campaign. Julie Bishop is following the same stupid path.
If only the lib’s knew that they would get more browny points if they stopped trying to scare people and actually start making some sort of sense. Especially in these stressful times, they would be better thought of, if they stopped fighting with Labor over everything and fight the fights they can win logically. Maybe a tall order for them, when they are coping Sarah Palin.
Are you postulating sexual abuse as a cause of homosexuality? I don’t there’s any evidence to support that.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18559854?ordinalpos=1&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_DefaultReportPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum
10: An enlarged suprachiasmatic nucleus in homosexual men.
Swaab DF, Hofman MA.
Brain Res. 1990 Dec 24;537(1-2):141-8.
PMID: 2085769
Just some articles
Freud thought everything was caused by environmental factors. Psychoanalysis almost completely discounts genetics as an explanation for childhood development, which is why it is such a discredited ‘theory’.
Genetics almost completely discounts environment as an explanation for childhood development, which is why it is such a discredited ‘theory’.
Both statements are equally capable of being true. Neither has been proved to be true. “The truth is rarely pure and never simple.” (Oscar Wilde, who ought to know)
Adam
If homosexuality was PURELY genetic, it would probably breed out although not necessarily. If there were enough “spontaneous mutations”, it wouldn’t. But homosexuality is only moedrately genetic.
Evolution acts on a gene basis, not on an individual basis.
So if you had a slight genetic predisposition to homosexuality in the family, that might be an advantage because you have a homosexual uncle or aunt who helps the children grow up, become educated and prosper, the uncles genes (many of which are shared by the kids) are passed on more strongly by the well-brought up kids.
centaur009
That’s called the “sneaky male” hypothesis of homosexuality.
Centaur, I have seen many such articles. The problem is that no-one can demonstrate which way the chain of causation runs. Do the observed physiological characteristics cause the difference in behaviour, or does the difference in behaviour cause the observed physiological characteristics? Or are they both caused by an unknown third factor? No-one knows.
My nephews will be thrilled to hear that.
MY theory is that there is a gene which causes people to be brilliant, handsome and popular. About 20% of the time, when in combination with another gene, it also causes homosexuality. Hence its persistence in the population.
Genes are encased in individuals, and it is individuals that either breed or do not breed.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15820544?ordinalpos=23&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_DefaultReportPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum
Adam I think that the reported percentage amongst the entire population is around 2%. I am postulating that it is a factor not the factor, along with many other environmental factors, but accepting also that there is a strong genetic link too.
Centaur, that second article has nothing at all to do with the causation of homosexuality.
Twin studies show that monozygotic (identical twins) are 50% concordant in homosexuality, dizygotic twins are 22% and adopted twins are 11%. There is definitely a genetic link. But there is definitely a strong environment component too.
http://serendip.brynmawr.edu/exchange/node/1925
Genetics doesn’t seek to be an all encompassing explanation of childhood development, whereas psychoanalysis does.
Psychoanalysis isn’t a middle level theory that reconciles genetic and environmental factors, Freud simply proposes that genetics is completely irrelevant. That makes no sense whatsoever. Also, it isn’t a scientific theory, because it isn’t supported by empircal evidnece. psychoanalysis has always relied simply on anecdotes.
The last few chapters in this book provide a good run down on the status of the debate:
http://www.amazon.com/Blank-Slate-Modern-Denial-Nature/dp/0142003344/ref=pd_bbs_sr_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236040702&sr=8-2
Psychoanalysis plays no role whatsoever, because it is not a scientific theory.
No but it demonstrates a very high percentage of sexual abuse 22% and 11%
No, instead I divert my energies to non-reproductive sex. Gee it’s great!
Retail sales up 0.2% in January, a whopping 0.7% higher than was forecast…
http://business.smh.com.au/business/retail-sales-in-surprise-pickup-20090303-8mun.html
Surely this is further evidence the December stimulus package didn’t work.
”0.2% growth means the Government’s stimulus package has translated into relatively strong retail sales performance….The Government should be applauded for that.”
And the hits just keep on comimg!! Surely this government will be heralded as one of the best if not the best in Australia’s history
That’s true, but it’s hard to see what kind of empirical evidence could ever be educed to prove or disprove it. It provides the theoretical basis for psychotherapy, which appears to be effective for many people. That’s all that can be said about it.
You would need to show a 100% correlation between childhood sexual abuse and homosexuality. I wasn’t abused, ergo no 100% correlection. Next theory please.
correlection? correlation
Entirely possible. Although it could be a single gene technically (although it looks like any “homosexual gene” is on the X chromosome). Say you have gene H which occurs in two forms, H and h. Most people are hh and are dull and ugly. A few people are Hh and so are brilliant, handsome and popular. A tiny 2% are HH and are incredibly brilliant (like a PhD historian), handsome and popular. And the phenotype of HH also means they are homosexual.
There are a few diseases like that. (And No I do not consider homosexuality a disease at all). Sickle cell anaemia is like that. It you have one sickle cell gene you are less likely to get malaria, but if you have two you never get anaemia but get sickle cell crises.
Current account deficit is lower as well.
Unfortunately the good economic news (much needed) will be drowned out tomorrow with ridiculous fearmongering over low, possibly backwards, growth.
Maybe, maybe not. Identical twins by definition live in a different family environment, have different parental and sibling relationships, to non-identical twins. Since humans can’t be experimented on like whitemice, this is not a question that is ever going to be conclusively answered.
Sorry. Should be “never get malaria”.
I wasn’t abused as a child either. So that theory has been blown out of the water.
You see why I like this theory. I was indeed thinking of the sickle cell anaemia / malaria relationship when I devised it.
Maybe the genetic component of homosexuality is a mutation. Nature is always experimenting.
Looks like someone started a Senate inquiry based on our discussions yesterday.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/senate-public-transport-inquiry-opens-20090303-8mut.html
The fact there are scientific theories that take into account both genetic and environmental factors on the development of children has killed off any remaining usefulness of psychoanalysis.
Most modern psychotherapy isn’t based on psychoanalysis. Psychoanalysis doesn’t have greater efficacy than alternate forms of psychotherapy or just plain counseling. In many studies its results are worse, while being significantly more time consuming and expensive for the patient.
The reason psychoanalysis has any prestige left is because academics in some sections of the Humanities love it, because it is an extreme cultural constructivist theory that matches with their ideological predispositions. As an actual working ‘theory’ of the mind, it explains very little that modern neurology and evolutionary psychology can’t explain better with more empirical support.
If there was no genetic component, you would expect only 16 (half) to share the “genetic material”, not 22. It’s hardly proof but it reached statistical significance ie less than a 5% probability it was by chance alone.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/03/2505850.htm?section=justin
Sure that’s what happens, Mike.
I probably agree with that.
theory is not blown out of water. Theory doesn’t say all gay people have been sexually abused, nor does it say all people who are sexually abused turn gay- all I am saying is that there is a larger percentage of gay people that have been sexually abused, and therfore this may be a contributing factor to the environmental impact of sexual orientation outcome.
triton
That’s true but the numbers are much too high for spontaneous mutation. There is definitely an evolutionary advantage to having a certain number of homosexuals.
Adam
How on earth do you know about sickle cell trait and evolution? Most doctors don’t know that.
Do you have a link for that?
I’m not a priori opposed to or supportive of any particular theory of sexual orientation. I don’t think the truth or falsity of any theory has any political implications, and I have no personal investment in any theory being proved or disproved. I regard them all as unproved and probably unprovable given the ethical limitation on human experimentation. My intellectual preference is for environmental explanations for human behaviour over genetic ones, but like most people I have had to give ground on this over recent years.
Diogenes, I have been having this debate for over 30 years. It’s an analogy that has occurred to many people.
A couple more of Mike Rann’s Yes Men. No reshuffle yet again. Another wasted opportunity.
Dio the gene for hairy ears is also carried on the male chromosome. There are also a lot of dumb arses that are gay too!
Dario -
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/03/2505959.htm
http://business.smh.com.au/business/exports-give-boost-to-gdp-20090303-8mv2.html
#96
This is a pure guess, but maybe there are high numbers because there are many different mutations that could produce a similar result.
One can only conclude that there is ‘definitely’ an evolutionary advantage to some homosexuality if mutation, incidental occurrence (i.e., it’s linked to other, advantageous, traits, as Adam suggested) and other accidents can be ruled out.
Thx Oz
On the homosexuality debate, while posters have generally been at pains to stress it could be genetics or it could be environment, this chat is still basically unfolding along the lines of a hoary old nature/nurture debate. This framework limits our understanding, in my opinion. How are genetics not ‘environmental’? (Perhaps a boffin in the epigenetics arena could add something here).
The other thing I note is that despite claims of complexity, there is still a fascination for a linear and singular origin story for homosexuality; in a way that is not found in the story of heterosexuality (we don’t really problematise the existence of heterosexuality beyond the argument about genetic diversity through sexual reproduction). Regardless of the best of intention, homosexuality is set up as a problem narrative to be solved with a powerful singular answer (its gene xyzwtr22, or it’s all the mother fault, etc, etc).
The persistence, rather, the thriving vital continued presence of homosexuality in the human population is clearly normative, I reckon we need to not get caught up in ‘solving’ homosexuality no more than we would bother with solving the imponderable problem of heterosexuality. Homosexual people and communities are too diverse; homosexual people can point to too many different life forming experiences to be understood as a product of either nature of nurture. A more integrated social cum natural cum psychological science is perhaps needed to fathom the ‘source’, but as I say I reckon it might be a bit of a dud question to begin with.
In any debate on homosexuality, it also has to be remembered that homosexuality is not just a human phenomenon. It has been recorded in many animal species other than humans. Bonobos (like chimps but a different species) have homosexual relations all the time. It is thought that this keeps the bonds of the group together.
As well as environmental and genetic links, there’s also evidence linking variations in fetal development (ie perhaps exposure to elevated levels of maternal testosterone for example) with sexual preference.
How about the theory that the entire population is bisexual and that the constraints and influences of society cause the expressions. Sexuality is on a continuam and up one end is extreme hetrosexuality and the other end extreme homosexuality.Most of the population is just left of centre, some in the centre and some just to the right of centre
This is a nice link:
http://www.voanews.com/english/archive/2006-06/2006-06-25-voa36.cfm
This would make the Catholic Church (birth control policy) the single biggest cause of male homosexuality in the western world.
Homosexuality is partly genetically determined
i go along with this Dio, i know of triplets two male and one female, all three were gay, one of the males used to ask my daughter where she got her clothes and cosmetics from, he just loved those sort of things, the other male put on a slightly more macho front, he didnt bother to hide his preferences he just wasnt so flamboyant.
pica
I agree but there are some advantages to understanding any phenomenon. One huge advantage if you look at homosexuality from an evolutionary point of view, you come to the conclusion that you reach below
And that’s got to be a good thing if more people think like that, esp at Mardi Gras time.
JB 110,
perhaps, but your post could be read as a strong argument for the influence of environment – presumably the trips were raised in the same household?
Diog 111, couldn’t agree more, I love a phenomenon as much as the next person and I’m desirous of understanding, it’s the problemtisation and causation fetishes that concern me, as they might hamper understanding. One reason they do so is because as narratives, they are very attractive. I mean who doesn’t want to solve a putative ‘problem’? I’m a sucker for this style of thinking, just not sure it helps much.
The danger of wanting to find a “cause” for homosexuality is that people will then want to find a “cure”.
“What’s that sir? You think your son is gay? Just get him to take two of these tablets and we’ll have him shagging anything that doesn’t have a penis in a few days”.
People are already screening their foetus’ for genetic predisposition to a number of conditions/diseases. If someone was to find a gene or genes that cause homosexuality, what’s to stop people from then also screening for “gay”?
Excuse me for interrupting with a bit of politics but now Labor is being blamed for crocs reproducing. Yesterday it was for sharks attacking people.
http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/nt-opposition-blames-govt-for-croc-surge-20090303-8mx8.html
Gary, surely you could hunt down a nice segue article that blames the ALP for homosexuality?
Way back, this discussion started out with Obama wanting to end “don’t ask, don’t tell”. What is the policy in Australia Armed Forces about homosexuality?
I’m sure some right-wing nutjobs would blame people like Dunstan and Whitlam for “encouraging” homosexuality.
After a great deal of resistance from the ADF, the ban on gay men and lesbians was overturned by Keating.
Ian Sinclair blamed Labor for AIDS during the 1984 election campaign.
Gary, another bit of politics here,
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/shrinking-deficit-supports-growth-20090303-8mwx.html
Crean and Burke seem to be doing a fine job.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/australia-to-resume-india-dairy-exports-20090303-8mxp.html
Diog, i actually wonder about my friend Yogi bear also. he has an IQ of 201 but his “best friend” is another male bear called Boo-Boo.
http://i241.photobucket.com/albums/ff186/lostartprophet/yogi-bear-n-boo-boo.jpg
It would be more harmonious if he also has a female bear friend called Bree-Bree.
On a topic obviously unrelated to this thread, has the Reserve Bank interest rate decision been announced yet?
#114 Tim in SA
I would say it’s up to the parents what they want to screen for, since the child is their creation, rather than have the exclusion of certain traits imposed from outside.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/lifeandstyle/lifematters/tony-jones-putting-women-in-the-mood-for-sex/2009/03/03/1235842367546.html
Obviously this failed miserably in my household. One look at Jonesey and she goes back to her cleaning chores or starting to have headache.
Why did he do that? Would be interesting to know why, considering the AIDS campaign by Labor that followed shortly after.
Throw up!
that would be a different matter 
now if it was Tony Burke
A senator for Northern province Victoria told us that the dairy part o his electorate produces 11% of the worlds milk!! That’s a great win with te free trade then.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TeNdsoCIgc
Triton @ #114: What about if the parents would want to terminate said foetus if they found out it was going to be gay?
(Answers own question) RBA rates decision to be announced 2.30 pm EDST according to The Australian.
Recession? what recession. Where is Joe?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25132845-601,00.html
Is this the Gay Bludger site?
Back to Poll Bludger: Just wait till the next goose for the Anti Jobs Party makes a claim that the stimpack has completely failed. Costello will struggle on Q&A when he claims that Labor has mismanaged the economy during these turbulent times. Tanner will be dining late on roast chicken.
#131
Well, I guess that’s up to them, as repugnant as it might seem to many people. “We just don’t want it” is the reason for most abortions. Is that one acceptable?
This is just another example of why the opposition have screwed up big time. It should have been completely obvious that there would be a surge in retail spending after the December cash injection. For the opposition to claim that the strategy had completely failed after just a few weeks was simply asking for trouble. What did the opposition gain for making such claims? Maybe they created a tiny sense of doubt in some people’s minds but that’s now been blown away with this news. There should be a further shift in the polls to Rudd and Co.
The opposition strategy makes sense if there’s a very short leadtime to a critical event e.g. an election but there’s no such event on the horizon so their negativism and claims of mismanagement are exposed as cheap, short term political carping.
I find that offensive Steve. Poll Bludger discussion often digresses in to a discussion of various society issues.
interest rate unchanged
cash rate unchanged
No change to interest rates.
The rationale:
http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2009/mr_09_05.html
Homosexuality: Genetical or Environmental
Diogenes put me down for $200 on Genetical for sure
Either we support a woman’s right to choose to terminate a pregnancy or we don’t. I do.
If there was a specific prenatal test developed for homosexuality, and which had no other purpose, I would argue for it to be banned. But ultimately if women want abortions they should be able to have them.
Stronger-than-expected international trade and retail figures today sparked hopes the economy may have grown modestly despite the global economic downturn, analysts said.
“The Reserve Bank is giving a tick of performance to Australia, ” CommSec chief economist Craig James told SkyBusiness news of the decision.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25133071-12377,00.html
The unchanged interest rate at 3.25% is bad news for Turnbull. It shows:
1. OZ economy is in a reasonably shape and as compared the the other developed economy, we are in 7 heaven.
2. There is more ammunition in monetary policy left to fire
3. The OZ dollar will enjoy some upward bounce
If tomorrow national account is positive, it will look like the $10B stimulus has rescued the December quarter. The $40B stimulus will do likewise for Q1 & Q2 of 2009. Turnbull will commit hara-kiri.
“If there was a specific prenatal test developed for homosexuality, and which had no other purpose, I would argue for it to be banned.”
Absolutely. I have met some gay people and they are fantastic. How BORING would the world be if everyone was exactly the same? And then where would you draw the line with abortion? Hair colour, eye colour, it would be ridiculous.
Bob, Fair enough. It’s a pity that there isn’t another thread where society issues can be discussed so that political discussion, news etc can be the dominant topic in the thread headed “Essential Research: 62-38″
Spot on Finns. I tipped that we would just avoid recession but I didn’t bet. Damn.
Not genetical- genetic and yes you would be on the money 90% genetic, 10% environment just like – intelligence, behaviour etc
I can’t wait for Turnbull’s hari-kari
I guess Turnbull will try to put the best spin on it, e.g., that those with mortgages got no relief and it’s all the fault of Rudd’s policies.
lol, yeah only a 4% drop… Rudd you bastard!!!
Those with mortgages did get relief – they’ll be very relieved that we are not sliding into a recession in which they would lose their jobs and thus their homes as well. They will express that relief very forcefully in the next round of polls.
And the hits just keep on comimg!! Surely this government will be heralded as one of the best if not the best in Australia’s history?
How’s this for a pathetic headline on news.com.au:
What a pack of tools. Perhaps if you had bothered to read some of your own stories today, which included another rise in the retail sector and a huge fall in the current account, you might have noticed that there was good news out there. Or of course you just ignored all that deliberately…
WTF?
I thought interest rates unchanged was the bestest, confidence-inspiring news of the day?
It is pathetic, but only in the sense that it demonstrates the writers don’t understand the real economic significance of interest rates staying on hold. It means Australia has one of the most resilient economies in the world at the moment.
Chris Richardson just told radio listeners that every time they walk past a bank they should pause and blow kisses at it.
Interest rates will always remain neutral under a Labor Government.
I read somewhere that genetic scientists had found the gene that causes genetic scientists to find genes that cause things.
Its a joke just in case you are not sure.
What? A piece of economic data is out, and you expect the media NOT to sensationalise it and extract a story out of it?
#160, I also read recently the scientists has found that having children is hereditary. If your parents didn’t have any, you wouldn’t have any.
Sadly true
Breaking News
Scientists discover that a deletion on the short arm of chromosome 6 causes people to vote for the Liberal Party.
This deletion is thought to contain the “gullible” gene – people without it are likely to be taken in by gross distortions. A less common deletion wipes out both coipies of this gene resulting in people voting for the National Party.
An even rarer trisomy 6 condition results in the LNP voter.
This is the end of Test Cricket in Pakistan.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Firing-in-Lahore-Lanka-cricketers-wounded/articleshow/4215872.cms
I think I know what the Liberal party spin will be – the government borrowing money is keeping interest rates unnecessarily high.
What about swinging voters?
Is that the small number of those affected by environmental rather than genetic factors?
He told reporters: “Whoever was responsible for the team’s security is a bloody incompetent fool who should be… oh dear, goodness gracious me.”
Is’t their talk of playing an Australia V Pakistan test series in the U.K.?
This couldn’t be a minor incident if 5 cops die.
Swinging voters are largely bisexual, and get to bed down with all parties
Has there ever been a “gay” party???
lol
I’ve heard rumours of Liberal party candidates holding them all the time
Yeah, it was a break-away faction of the shooters party.
Wow, sharemarket traders are a joke. They were certain their would be at least a 25 b.p. cut:
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
Environmental factors have been found to influence Green Voters .
Concrete, bitumen, glass and universities are the major factors although high density living is though to be involved.
Scientists are still trying to examine the Tasmanian version but the sample size is too small.
Regarding the Pakistan attack on the Sri Lankan cricketers, the nonsense cricket administators have spouted in the past saying they are ‘different” is just that, nonsense. The struggle there involves a violent terrorist movement that is trying to destablise the state. In the past they have attacked the parliament of their nuclear armed neighbor, India. Does anybody seriously think they will stop short of attacking a cricket team? They probably deliberately targetted them for maximum effect on the government. It is an incredibly corrupt country. Benazir Bhuto, with all her connections and bodyguards, couldn’t ensure her own safety. What chance does a visiting sporting team have? Pakistan is a very dangerous place, verging on civil war. Neither our cricketers nor anyone else should go there if they can avoid it.
You’re lucky Ron isn’t around at the moment, I said the same a couple of weeks ago, and Ron attacked me for being a U.S. sympathiser!
Channel 9 says some of the players were shot in the chest.
Well I hope Ron doesn’t travel there himself to prove us wRONg. I would miss our debates.
Seriously I am not trying to make a political statement on current or former US or Australian foreign policy. I’m just observing a simple fact – Pakistan is dangerous.
The Times of India says the Sri Lankan team bus and escorting police car were targetted by gunmen wearing backpacks. Three police and a traffic cop killed; eight cricketers and a coach wounded. Sounds like they riddled the bus. Just like Mumbai…
You are exactly right. Did you watch 4 Corners last week? It demonstrated very clearly that it is currently in a battle for its sovereignty against the taliban and other jihadists.
Unfortunately Obama can’t fix this problem by simply sending over the stealths.
There’s a fair chance the shooters were Tamil Tigers, in which case it’s got more to do with Sri Lankan politics than Pakistani politics.
The same group that conducted the attack in India is being blamed for it.
Also, it wouldn’t make sense for that to happen, because some of the Sri Lankan players are Tamil, like Muralithuran.
You will recall that early on after the Mumbai attack it was blamed on an alleged Indian terrorist group that turned out not to exist.
This story on Ladyboy lizards would be on topic here today.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/ladyboy-lizards-use-transvestite-trickery-researchers-20090303-8n5z.html
The obvious effect is to embarrass the Pakistan government and security forces, and deter the proposed test series between India and Pakistan happening. That would suggest it is a group with an anti-Pakistan government agenda.
#150, Turnbull, with his kamikaze squad of Hockey, Robb and Pyne in the background.
http://commentarytrack.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/harakiri1.jpg
Sounds like the Taliban and / or Al Qaeda to me.
I understand there ar actually multpie such groups within Pakistan, but one of them yse. see
http://icga.blogspot.com/2009/03/bhasin-pakistan-matryoshka-doll-of.html
Hey Finns have you got one of those dolphin tatooes on your shoulder/top part of your back?
ShowsOn
Further to my 191, if you follow that link you will see there are a myriad of factions within the Taliban in Pakistan, not to mention other terrorist groups within Pakistan as well. So I would not pretend to know or guess which one it might be. However it seems very likely to be one of them. The Tamil Tigers are pinned down in northern Sri Lanka right now desperately fighting off a government offensive. I don’t see how they could mount such an attack logistically speaking.
#192 you mean like this?
http://tattoo.about.com/library/graphics/041003m.jpg
No, but my parents have engraved dolPHIN into my soul legally, socially and economically.
I agree with you. It is more than likely domestic terrorists who are getting funding from the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
Ultimately they are all the same, they hate democracy and want to impose sharia law on everyone.
Is it the wet and dry Taliban or the right and left Taliban
Ruawake 164, that is really very funny, thanks for making my day
…..
Warwick Capper so stupid he forgot to register:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25133901-29277,00.html
165 Finnagans, agreed …. hope Obama and Clinton can make some inroads into their political situation there that impact on the rest of the world ….. I saw something in the last few days that implied that the Taliban were “taking over” by alligning themselves with those in power at present …..
169, Dubai and the UAE is what I read about a week ago …..
ShowsON
Actually they are NOT all the same. They might use similar methods, but their objectives are quite different. Some are religeous fundamentalists, some are secular. I would encourage you to read more from Juan Cole at Informed Comment. I had no idea how complicated it all was till I started reading Fisks “Great War for Civilization”. Very sad but a great read.
f that’s the case Shows on why wasn’t he the liberal candidate. Hmmm reminds me of the opposition treasurer who failed to register.., was that in Queensland, and Victoria
184, why would they travel to Pakistan to do it when they could do it at home (if they so desired)?
Victoria. He was the shadow treasurer too.
Cricinfo is keeping a blog re the terror attacks:
http://blogs.cricinfo.com/breakingnews/archives/lahore_terror_a/
You could say http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Sex_Party has specifically pro-gay policies. I’m considering voting for them under the line ahead of the Greens next election.
Channel 10 in Sydney reported the interest rates not falling story very positively. They showed Turnbull trying to say that Labor’s cash splash last December had no effect before cutting him off before just before he finished his sentence. I have never seen 10 do that to a Liberal politician before. They used to do it to Beazley and Crean all the time. Turnbull looked like such a loser!
Pakistan effectively can’t govern parts of their country. This attack, and the one against India, should go to the security council so that Pakistan can get U.N. troops on the ground to wrestle their country back from terrorists.
They just can’t do it on their own, they need international help.
I heard on the radio this morning that Perth may be in the running for the Cricket Wold Cup, but the Chairman of the WACA has pooh-poohed it saying Perth doesn’t have more than one cricket ground.
Is Cricinfo trying to make us laugh at this attack?
You’d think the cricket world cup was due to be held in Australia again. It was held in Aus and N.Z. in 1992. We have won the last three world cups, so you’d think we would get to host it again.
The World Cup is a big money spinner in cricket and they have held it where the host needs the money or where they make the most money (India). Hence the past one in West Indies and the event for Pakistan. I expect we would be a long way down the list on that score.
The subcontinent is supposed to be holding the next edition of the cricket world cup in 2011, with Australia (and NZ?) to host in 2015.
The rumours about Perth I think were about the hosting of the Champions Trophy, which was scheduled for Pakistan at the end of last year, delayed and moved to Sri Lanka for October this year, but apparently they forgot to consider the Sri Lankan wet season.
The Champions Trophy is a smaller version of the world cup, with only 8 teams, and fewer games, usually held over 2-3 venues.
Yep, that’s it
Pauline Hanson gets a bit upset at questioning about what she’s done with all the electoral money she’s made.
http://player.video.news.com.au/adelaidenow/#51jTpeE9h86fxp2tdg1p7jOeYDpwSNXH
Ms Hanson is obviously a seriously disturbed woman.
Cricket makes the New York Times’ frontpage:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/04/world/asia/04pstan.html?_r=1&hp
She hung up on an interview with Triple J yesterday as well. She was asked whether she stood by her earlier statement that Oz was in danger of being overrun by Asians. That footage shows that she should never be allowed to run again.
No 215
I’ve got to say that the funding issues are a media beat up. It is her right, just like anybody else in this country, to run for parliament. She may be an inarticulate bimbo, but she does not deserve the media harrassment.
Ms Hanson has every right to stand for election, as does every Australian Citizen. Loopies run for office at every election, and fail. Just look at Mal Brough.
Too true. One of the worst parliamentarians in Australian history.
Just look at the federal shadow cabinet.
Whatr I can’t understand (and perhaps someonewill put me right), is how can Turnbull get away with still claiming that the $10 cash injection didn’t work? The figures today, as well as the testimonials of just about every commentator and business person in the country allsay it worked. Yet Turnbull just keeps on asserting – in the plonkingest of tones – that it was a complete failure. And he voted for it to boot!
Similarly, Joe Hocket yesterday on ABC radio was on about how Rudd and Swan “panicked” the Reserve Bank into raising interest rates early last year on the back of a “phoney” inflation scare. This was on the very same day that the new inflation figures came out: 3.1%… outside – higher than – the Reserve Bank window.
These monsters are totally flying in the face of not just asserted, not just theoretical, but demonstrated reality. Yet, they continue to get treated seriously. Their fake points of logic are soberly considered by interviewers who should know better and are then thrown back at government members time after time in a sort of, “BWhaddaya say to that!” slanging match. Have these guys opened a window lately and taken a look outside?
Yes she does. Her last two Senate bids were just cynical stunts to get 4% of the vote without doing any campaigning and qualify for public funding which she put in her pocket. She doesn’t even pretend to stand for any political program or principles, she says “I’m Pauline Hanson, vote for me.” Fortunately the Rudd government has closed the federal loophole she exploited. Will the Qld system will allow her to get public funding after this candidacy?
They inhabit a twilight zone, and have done for some years.
No she will only get paid for reciepts she can produce. See the Pineapple blog
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/
He’s not actually getting away with it BB though I know where you are coming from.
Many in the media will simply take Turnbull’s words (accusations) without question and throw them at the nearest minister but that doesn’t mean that Turnbull’s getting away with anything. He is looking more and more desperate for a headline as he contemplates his complete irrelevance. The public believes that we have a pretty competent government in Canberra and nothing the opposition have said or done his made one iota of difference to that sense of trust.
I’ve just reserved a new DVD at my local library. It’s called -
Menzies & Churchill At War
Is anyone aware of this documentary? Maybe it’s been on television?
The summary information on the library website reads:
“Using Robert Menzies’ World War II diaries and remarkable 16 mm film, this dramatised documentary lifts the lid on a bitter behind-the-scenes battle between Winston Churchill and the Australian Prime Minister as the fate of Australia hangs in the balance. It follows Menzies to London during the dark months of 1941 as he takes on the British Prime Minister over the strategic direction of the war, telling the story of Menzies’ political epiphany from his own point of view. The film introduces the controversial theory that Menzies became so alarmed by flaws in Churchill’s leadership that he considered taking over himself. With Australia under threat of a Japanese attack, Menzies struggled to convince the autocratic British leader to send reinforcements to Singapore. The unequal struggle eventually cost Menzies his prime ministership, but out of it he developed a new vision for Australia and built a constituency of middle-class voters who swept him back to power”
Turnbull has been forced to change his rhetoric slightly.
“There is no evidence that the stimulus package has had any positive effect beyond a slight increase in retail sales.”
The no evidence line has cracks appearing – next, no evidence except every published bit of economic data.
Hanson sounds like she’s suffering from paranoid delusions of persecution. That should not be consistent with running for parliament. She would be dangerously unstable if elected.
Turnbull says:
I would have thought that for every dollar used to pay off a loan means that same dollar can be borrowed by someone else to purchase goods and services. The stimpak injection will churn through the economy for many months to come. So what’s Turnbull’s problem?
Like it would matter unless she held a balance of power position.
Menzies and Churchill At War is (I assume) based on the book of the same name by David Day, who has made a bit of a specialty of contrarian histories of WW2. I haven’t read that one but I have read some of his others and I don’t think he’s a very good writer or a very good historian. The Menzies-Churchill stuff was gone into at length in two books about Menzies by Cameron Hazlehurst (Menzies Observed) and Judith Brett (Robert Menzies’ Forgotten People). Brett says that Menzies was jealous of Churchill and wanted to be at the centre of the empire, which is why he spent so much time in Britain in 1941 and as a result was deposed as PM. If you like psycho-history it’s a good read.
Menzies and Churchill at War was a documentary shown on the ABC, around the same time as the Harold Holt dissapearing and Ben Chifley/Coal documentaries.
If I use my stimpac payment to pay off my credit card, which I very well might, that is more money that the bank has to lend to businesses and homebuyers. I’m sure Turnbull knows all this, but he’s painted himself into a corner and can’t back down from his absurd claims.
Now this is an extraordinary story:
Crisis ‘gives climate breathing space’
Just watch Turnbull latch on to this one.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25134672-12377,00.html
At the same time it does give the government some wriggle room they might just need.
Syeve @ 228
Yes it has, last year.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/guide/netw/200810/programs/DO0709V001D30102008T203000.htm
Thanks Adam and Roxanne. I see the TV show has good old Bud Tingwell in the role as Winston. That makes it worthwhile straight away.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/03/2506486.htm
bob1234
For someone I seldom agree with, our voting intentions are identical.
You vote Green? But you’re so not a leftie!
bob1234
According to a report I saw he was too busy fondling store dummies (no, not Pauline back at the Fish and Chippery) and missed the deadline. What do you expect when his campaign manager is Mark ‘Jacko’ Jackson. Those two wouldn’t have half a brain between them.
I always felt her claim that Australia was at risk of being “swamped by Asians” (later updated to “Africans”) was a good example of delusions of persecution that are common to conspiracy theorist types.
If Ron returns, expect him to attack you for being “libertans” (libertarians).
Here’s a trailer for M & C at War. Looks like a load of tosh to me.
http://www.filmaust.com.au/menzies/
With his spelling, his attacks are like being hit with a wet lettuce leaf.
I wonder if Turnbull is simply ignorant or dishonest. The first bit is mostly likely true to some extent. He would have to be fairly ignorant though to not understand that paying off debt frees up debt but also paying off debt encourages the same people to re-spend. Paying $900 of the Mastercard frees that card up for a little spending. Then some people often spend more than the windfall they receive.
In fact it might be better like this as it will help spread spending over more months.
I wouldn’t be surprised is Turnbull has no idea on this. Being a merchant banker doesn’t mean anything except the privilege to sit and make money on a rapidly rising tide. He wouldn’t be the first banker that was ignorant on economics and finance. His performance at GS didn’t demonstrate any knowledge or ability.
Inevitably Australia will go into recession. Our trading partners are too far down the drain to not have a knock on effect. But the longer it is delayed the better we will be coming out of it. Also the longer it is delayed the more Swan and Rudd are going to look like gurus.
Bob
You mean a whet latice leefe.
SteveK at 236
Only if he doesn’t read past the first paragraph, which totally misrepresents the content of the rest of the article.
For once ABC does it better,
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/03/2506547.htm?section=justin
Hey, leave Ron alone you lot!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/32614668@N00/2672447891/
lol
Mmmm lattice…
What do people make of this? Obama is willing to drop the missile defense system (Star Wars), provided that Russia joins with the U.S. to gang up on Iran:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/washington/03prexy.html?_r=1
This is like the Cold War when Gorbechev was willing to sign a deal with the U.S. for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons if the U.S. was willing to restrict development of Star Wars to laboratories instead of actual missile tests:
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/02/reagan-excerpt200902?currentPage=2
Hear,Hear
(if you are going to attack someone, at least do it when they are online)
He could be lurking as he works his way through a dictionary.
bob1234
Yep, I vote Green and occasionally Mr X. So far on this blog I’ve been called a Liberal apologist, Labor hack, far left liberal elitist and mindless, vandalistic Green.
Retail sales hit record after first stimulus
Are we still going to hear from the opposition that it didnt work??
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25132845-601,00.html
That’s not an attack. If I’ve told you once I’ve told you a thousand times – don’t exaggerate!
So what do you consider yourself on the economic, social, and traditional/moral axis’?
Re 258,
Probably will – after they’ve spent their $900
or even eggzajuraite
As my Yogi bear friend would say: “wRONg is smarter than the average pollbludgers here”.
So if I call you a neo-con, a communist and a socialist does that mean you are a well balanced individual?
Tom.
The only time I would exaggerate Steve K, would be when discussing your intelligence,
and then it would be a factor of 10 to 1.
Cheers
A a well balanced individual is someone with a chip on both shoulders.
Nasty nasty Gusface. Go take a cold shower.
Yeah, and answer this test while you’re at it:
http://www.politicalcompass.org/test
Actually,as I have recommended in the past to others here, I will henceforth go and have a good cry and a lie down,then I will have a cold shower.
And I will still have my integrity at the end.
bob1234
I’m a Progressive Social Democrat evidently. Every test comes up as Green for Oz-based testing like this one. I dunno why some people think I’m so right-wing or far-left. I’m pretty harmless really.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/fun/politics-test/
No, Diog just wants to be loved but he is not getting any. Not from the Amigos nor Mrs. D. But he still enjoys being flogged. He was never told when he was young that pain would lead to pleasure.
any predictions on the dec quarter growth figures. listening to rudd and swan today, they’re preparing us for a negative. would they know by now??
Rudd and Swan are already gurus. All we need is tomorrows news to be good and it will make international headlines.
The Economist will even run a lead story “Aussies do it better”
Incidently I heard Bull on Gold FM this arvo and he came across okay. He was saying the rates were a good thing but spoke about self funded retirees who are hurting. Valid point I believe- what percentage of the people do they represent?
Maybe, maybe not. It could just be expectations management so that when it’s not so bad it looks good.
That silly test thinks I’m a Democrat.
If Rudd would be legend in my book if he were able to hold us in only a shallow recession through until a global recovery begins.
There is no evidence that the Howard govt was voted out in2007, beyond a slight change in seats, oh and policies.
[I’m a Progressive Social Democrat evidently. Every test comes up as Green for Oz-based testing like this one. I dunno why some people think I’m so right-wing or far-left. I’m pretty harmless really.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/fun/politics-test/
Democrats 89.5%
Greens 83.2%
Labor 81.8%
FFP 44.2%
Liberal 43.4%
National 31.2%
One Nation 24.8%
Repost:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/fun/politics-test/
Democrats 89.5%
Greens 83.2%
Labor 81.8%
FFP 44.2%
Liberal 43.4%
National 31.2%
One Nation 24.8%
ShowsOn
Your test has me as a more anarchic version of Mahatma Ghandi.
Finns
I’m in the doghouse with Mrs D yet again. Evidently the desert wasteland that is our backyard is all my doing. Of the Amigos, GG has been incredibly nice for a few months now, we seem to agree on most things (he’s a very smart man). Vera still hates me for some reason. I dunno why but I get that a lot for some reason. Yesterday I was accused of not having a single gene for social interaction in my body by a co-worker. Of course, Mrs D agreed.
But are your beliefs similar to Democrat thinking?
I would have voted for the Democrats back in the day but not these days.
Oops. link:
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/fun/politics-test/?id=5dd4a187076a15d4fdfdd81a3684acd8
You know we’re about to be chastised by Adam for doing those tests.
I wonder what Adam would get if he did it. I’d laugh for ages if Democrat or Green came above Labor. But he’d never tell us. And he’d probably never do it. But even if he did he’d probably deny it
Diog, to make you feel better, not from pain. Mrs. F also has been rather strange lately. She thinks the green moss on the roof is something that i should get rid of. So i just whip out an Elton john song, that kinda shut her up for a moment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mTa8U0Wa0q8
Only in the US can we have headlines like this:
Guy With Sword Interrupts Neighbor’s Porn
Can the Republicans get any more pathetic?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/02/steele-takes-on-rush-limb_n_171135.html
Only in the US can someone have the first name, Rush.
Limbaugh just has to be a secret Democrat! He is a godsend for the Democrats and should keep the Republicans in disarray for quite a while.
Steele isn’t the first to attack Limbaugh, then apologise for doing so a few days later. They’re gutless.
and with his huge ass be so inapt for the name
My OzPolitics Score
Liberal Party: 87.7%
National Party: 78.9%
One Nation: 67.7%
Family First: 60%
Labor Party: 51.8%
Australian Democrats: 47.4%
Australian Greens: 28%
Broad Political Outlook: 38.7% (Centre Right)
Economic Policy: 92.8% (Far Right)
Social Policy: 66.3% (Right)
Traditional Values: -22% (Centre-Left)
Go figure.
What are they worried about? Limbaugh switching over to the Democats? If Limbaugh starts getting stroppy because they criticise him he would be only hurting his own side.
He must have photos of them in bed with assorted wildlife.
It really makes them look weak and lost.
Can’t say i’d expect anything else of your results GP.
]National Party: 78.9%]
HAHAHHAHAH sucked in.
No 295
I can’t work out that one. I basically said strongly agree to international free trade and strongly disagree to protection of local industries, and I still got 78% national. Meh.
The Federal Government secretly last Friday decided to open the markets to imports from 10 Asean Countries, great news for Australian local manufacturers and our terrible current account deficit.
Diog, you must know that you’re going to be accused of being, shall we say, lacking in sensitivity in the people relationship territory. If you’re going to do some chopping of peoples bodily bits, some distance from their subjective experience is required in order to do it. Mind you, my male GP is a gem, on account of his own experience of being a patient. Had to deal with a skin cancer on my arm yesterday, we kept chatting about well can you really tell if it’s AGW, given the time frames we’re speaking about. Blah, blah. He knows we’re dancing, I know we’re dancing. It’s much harder when you’re a specialist.
BTW, who is the Leader of Her Maj’s Loyal Opposition these days? Seriously?
Followed by Pauline Hanson’s party. lololol.
Diogenes
aww I don’t hate you, well not much anyway
this could be us, I’ll be the one in uniform and you got the big hair
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3l48_EGNdY
And Lib/Nats are still somewhat similar in economic policy despite free trade/protectionism, and very similar in policy in terms of social/traditional values. So it’s not that surprising that the Lib/Nat ranking would be similar for most scores if not all.
No 299
Funny thing is that I’m a communist on traditional values. There you have it.
Bob1234 @ #284
I wonder what Adam would get if he did it. I’d laugh for ages if Democrat or Green came above Labor. But he’d never tell us. And he’d probably never do it. But even if he did he’d probably deny it.
I have always considered myself strong Labor, yet every time I do this test I come up like this:
Greens 90%
Australian Democrats 90.1%
Labor Party 76.1%
Family First 52.5%
Liberal Party 33.9%
National Party 29.3%
One Nation 29.3%
I don’t like the Greens – despise Bob Brown, don’t forgive Meg Lees, and think Steve Fielding is a F***knuckle. Does that mean the test doesn’t know how to interpret my beliefs, or I don’t?
Marky
http://www.guide2.co.nz/politics/news/new-fta-welcomed/11/5964
Cant find much local press talking it up
HSO
I got our Burns Unit psychologist, who is an expert in PTSD, to ring Victoria to see if she could help out. She is just back from leave having had brain surgery recently so I didn’t push her too hard. I thought her expertise would be valuable and she might learn a thing or two about counselling in a disaster, should the same thing happen in SA.
The Victorians gave her the brush-off and said they had plenty of people. We tried.
Would have never thought of voting Demorcrats.
Greens 78.6%
Australian Democrats 82.2%
Labor Party 81.1%
Family First 48.3%
Liberal Party 46.5%
National Party 35.1%
One Nation 39.9%
Political outlook center left -35.1%
Traditional values -70.3%
Aah GP @ 292, we seem to be mirror images.
Dems: 67.8%
ALP: 64.4%
FF: 62.8%
Greens: 62.3%
Libs: 48.5%
One Nation: 47.3%
Nats: 44.5%
Broad Political Outlook: -18.9% (Centre Left)
Economic Policy: -55.6% (Left)
Social Policy: -30.5%(Centre-Left)
Traditional Values: 37.8% (Centre-Right)
Go figure
It means the Democrats weren’t Democrats.
Thanks Gusface. Still signing free trade agreements, which i wonder if they benefit Australia at all. How are we going to compete with these countries on wages and conditions? Wasn’t Simon Crean once secretary of ACTU.. Yep certainly looking after his past members.. another economic rationalist dill.
American free trade agreement now who has that benefited?
It means the test is BS.
Diogenes, that was very kind of you. Maybe better for her to recover from her surgery. We do have a lot of psychotherapists, psychiatrists and clinical psychologists in Victoria. In fact, we’re second to Manhattan for psychiatrists, per sq. Kilometre. Doesn’t mean they’re useful of course!
GP is 78.9% agrarian socialist!
I thought Howard negotiated that one…….
gusface & marky
There is mention of it here, says Oz dairy farmers will benefit.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/australia-to-resume-india-dairy-exports-20090303-8mxp.html
Marky
The export potential is huge,esp for such areas as dairy products.
Nb India is set to get onboard soon as well
Further it helps us from being seen as ‘deputy sherrif” that some envisaged for Oz’s future.
What area’s specifically???
Socialism for the rich…nothing for the rest.
Diog., also seems like we have escaped another major burn, although won’t really get the washout till tomorrow. Again, thanks, but maybe she needs to recover.
Since when is “bending over and holding your ankles” called “negotiating”?
Diogenes 311 probably true – like the company personality tests that show I am a massive introvert, yet I have to public speak to staff and/or meet new clients at least once a week.
WTF? The markets have always been open, the only difference is now when Australia companies export goods to these countries they won’t be subject to tariffs. Australia already has extremely low tarriffs, so the benefits here are for AUSTRALIAN companies. Or are you saying you oppose Australian industries?
If you missed my earlier reply:
http://www.travelweekly.com.au/articles/ae/0c0351ae.asp
Posum, I would have thought GP would have figured it out for himself. Sniggle.
Harry
She’s fine now. It was only a minor brain op. And yes, there are minor brain ops.
Vera
Ta for the link
I think if we have more trade with our nearest neighbours it cant but help regional security and co-operation.
To the libs credit there was some progress made under them so labor cannot fully claim all the credit, but certainly can now claim the policy ground.
Another nail in the nats coffin methinks.
robf
The “introvert” on those tests more refers to where you draw inspiration from than the normally understood term “introvert”. Introverts on the Myer-Briggs test like to think things out for themselves or read books, rather than going out into the world and finding the answer that way.
Yes Howard provided us with the US Agreement.
Okay see your point, if the agreement is essentially about comparative advantages in product delivery, and to a degree we have significant advantages in particular industries. But my concerns are maybe in regards to import competing firms in these countries which produce similar products ie: manufacturing of retail goods in TFC industries, thus sending more oz companies overseas. Nonetheless this may be balanced out in the long run.
No 313
One could say that. But on all the issues related to protectionism and industry subsidies, I strongly disagreed. Therefore the 78.9% of which I do agree with the Nationals most probably relates to the similar policy framework to the Liberal Party.
I surely cannot be Far Right on the economy if I was an agrarian socialist!!
Reserve Bank believes that the world economy will pickup later in the year… What planet are these board members living on?
Well looks like I’m a Centre-Lefty after all:
Grn 81.1%
Dem 84.8%
ALP 72.8%
FFP 46.4% (yech)
Lib 34.4%
Nat 28.4%
ONP 31.2%
It occurred to me that one rason for disagreement with teh ratings is that they probably match people’s responses with teh stated policy positions of each party, not their voting intention or the party’s actual record in parliament. So in that sense this is fairly accurate for me.
However as for me being “Centre-Left” when I described my self as Centrist, I can understand that in a different sense. I think it simply reflects that the prevailing orthodoxy in politics has shifted a long way to the right. Thus a formerly “centre’ position is now seen as left wing. Comparatively it is, but I still regard my vies as Centrist, in terms of the continuum from socialist to laissez-faire capitalist.
I have done the test:
- Labor 78.2%
- Greens 71.6%
- Dems 69.4%
- Family F 62.4%
- Liberal 49.4%
- One N 43.8%
- National P 42.8%
The Greens second – can you believe it? Family First – too high! One Nation – not last is a surprise?
But then again if you go back even further things like public health and education, compulsory savings, and the welfare state were considered extreme left wing, or even revolutionary. The fact these things are now taken for granted, and that even centre-right parties argue about their scope, but not their existence, suggests that some left wing positions have become completely orthodox.
While I don’t post often I want to throw something out there.
Listening to 774 on the way home, they had an expert that said the January sales figures were only $1 billion more than the seasonally adjusted sales from January last year.
He said that this showed that the nine odd billion paid to the punter had only resulted in $1 billion “extra” in sales – or that 90% was saved or paid off debt – so the stimulus wasn’t very efficient in promoting sales.
My problem with this expert is that we are comparing sales in January 2009 to January 2008. I am sure that consumers would have felt far more comfortable spending in Jan 2008.
So, if we are $1 billion more sales Jan 2009 to Jan 2008 that is an INCREASE. Now what would that increase have been without a stimulus? I am guessing that January sales in 2009 would have been LESS than Jan 2008 without a stimulus.
So the argument that we should have an increase of $9 billion on sales for the stimulus package to be effective doesn ‘t take into account the fact that the sales would have been down on last year.
marky
There are a few indicators that suggest the world economy could pick up later this year. But remember that is an average including China, India, South America etc. The US is still stuffed and Europe not much better.
Socrates, we have got a long way to go yet. My bet is that Australia will be in the positon America is in this time next year and unemployment will be heading towards double digits. We will not start to see a recovery until early 2011. Private debt is the reason and our housing markets which have declined somewhat still have got a long way to go yet in price reductions.
rob 332
You raise a good point – the comparison base chosen is critical to the perception you get. At present most economies in the world are going backwards, some by 1-2% per quarter, or 5-6% per year. In that context just staying steady is doing well; any growth is terrific. Australia is one of the few countries in the OECD not already in recession. The various stimulus measures, because they were enacted early, have already kept our economy up far better than almsot all our peers. Even NZ is already in the doldrums.
Also, we must remember that we have just come off the hottest boom since the post-war reconsruction period – before I was born. 4% to 5% growth per year is not the norm. Looks like a lot of the financial growth was fiction anyway. 2% to 3% per annum is a more realistic long term average. Right now any treasurer in the OECD would be boasting about 1% growth per annum.
Geez, Diog, I know that, but really, in the context of an ongoing disaster, which it has been since the 7th Feb., no one should be doing anything other than first aid and supportive counselling. Anyone I’ve found around the fire areas who’ve been purporting to do anything else, including the Church of Scientology, have been seen off the premises. Terribly keen psychologists who fancy themselves as experts, are frequently not, because they lack common sense. One of my colleagues (social worker) had to see off terribly keen psychologists out of the burns unit at a major Melbourne hospital, post Bali, as they were attempting to go into a treatment modality more appropriate to recovery. I’m buggered how those psychologists thought it was useful to use exposure techniques while some one was still in ICU.
This same argument was used by Barnaby Joyce related to December sales (which were up by $1 billion).
So currently we can say an extra $2 billion was pumped in in Dec and Jan. If people did use a lot of it to pay down debt, that will just let them free up more money later for spending (paying off debt and saving is just deferred spending).
But people are paying off private debt at record rates. Credit card repayments jumped by 22% in the last quarter of last year. That is the highest rate on record.
RobF
That ‘expert’ must be economic illiterate if he doesnt recognise the services sector among others that are not part of ‘retail sales’
My own estimate is 1/3 spending (retail) 1/3 retiring debt (CC and household bills)
1/3 services ( trades etc)
The government needs to put alot more money into the economy to just balance out the amount taken out by the amount of money no longer avalable because of the credit squeeze and because of that we will go into recession.
Thanks Socrates – the way I keep hearing “results of the stimulus package” described by most media outlets, compared to what I deduce from listening and thinking things through, are often very different propositions.
Yeah that cult rocks up whenever people are suffering. They prey on the vulnerable.
marky
We’ll see, but I doubt that. Our debt position is nowhere near as bad as the US. Our housing market is already starting to recover in tems of lower end sales. We also still have a lot of stimulus effects to come on stream, including education and infrastructure spending. I don’t see why we shoudl track the US economy – they are one of our smaller trading partners, and we actually have a trade deficit with tehm – i.e. its good if our trade with the US shrinks. What really matters to us is China and India. Of course the US has got more bad finance market news in store for it, but if they just lanced the boil and nationalised the “zombie banks” it would be over and they would start to recover. The growth will be slow for a while but this is not the depression v2. Even Steven Keen says the situation is not the same.
I think things will get a little bit worse here but as long as the budget is positive I think we should start to recover in 2010.
Marky, two quarters of negative growth. I reckon we will avoid it by half a head
The community got rid of them, ShowsOn.
Paying off more credit is one reason why giving money to people directly is the wrong policy. People generally will save it or pay off debts thus in general such measures will not stimulate the economy.
Good, they are nutters.
Wondered why Tom Cruise wasn’t at the Oscars.
Peter Costello on Q&A this week? Prepare to see the audience stacked by Liberals like it’s never been stacked before.
Nighty night from me, bludgers. I look forward to more debate tomorrow, as no doubt there will be.
But if they save it now, it means they will spend it latter. The Treasury made estimates of how much will be spent, saved, and used to retire debt, and is taken into account in their figures.
Handing out cash is still the fastest way to stimulate an economy, far faster than building things which takes a long times. Treasury doesn’t think the infrastructure spend will have an impact on growth until next year.
Ok then… what’s the alternative?
He hasn’t made a good film since Magnolia (1999)?
The retailers association wanted vouchers. But this is just pointless, if people don’t want to spend, then they will spend the vouchers, then cut back on their spending in other areas to make up for what they have saved.
Gusface 338
I hate to join the conspiracy club, but I can’t understand why the media seems so negative about how we are travelling. ABC seems to be determined to be balanced against the Government. So if the Govt is a Centre Left Govt. then equal time must be given to Spokes people with the exact opposite opinions to the Govt.
Extending this hypothesis to its conclusion – Kevin Rudd’s Govt believes the Earth is round so The ABC must give equal time to the Flat Earthers
And we didn’t have the technology to do it
Perhaps because the U.S. share market dropped last night to its lowest level since 1997? They are assuming – rightly or wrongly – that bad news from the U.S. automatically means we will go into a deep recession.
Socrates we have debt levels that are more than twice that of the great depression in the 1930’s. Our financial sector may not be in debt as high as America but our households are even more in aggregate indebted than Americas’.
Neoclassical economics and all these dopey economists have captured you Socrates. Remember many of them said six months ago including the Access Economist Chris Richardson said Australia will not need a stimulation package and we will be okay.
Sorry many of them have no idea it is all prediction.
And they were simply advocating a policy so it is easier for consumers to hand them their voucher-dollars. So it was pretty grubby and self serving.
Dario only against part of policy not all of it.
Money should be put into creating jobs and lots of them. Not handing out money to people.
As John Maynard Keynes said such policy will be used to ease peoples’ savings and budgets and will do little to help the overall economy.
Marky
I’m not in favour of tax cuts as opposed to direct govt spending either – especially on areas that generate long term growth. Still, the stimulus package coming is 75% govt spend and 24% tax cuts.
And?
That takes time to have an impact. I’ll ask again, what’s the alternative?
I don’t see any recovery until the US stops hemorrhaging jobs and there is some job creation. Japan’s exports crashed, so did China’s and South Korea are also in trouble. Our three main trading partners. China is trying to replace lost demand with stimulus and the creation of a wider domestic economy. Japan, throwing trillions at the problem, but will they get it right this time?
I see a long road ahead. If Rudd can keep us in just a shallow recession then that would be a fantastic result. He may need at least one more major stimulus package as the last bullet in the gun. Hope his Chinese is in good order.
When people spend money it creates demand, which creates jobs. It doesn’t matter if that is money that a person has worked for, or if it is given to them by the government.
When people save money, that means they have more money to spend sometime down the track. People don’t put money in the bank to never spend it, that doesn’t make sense. If they wanted to do that it would be wiser for them to put it in to superannuation, because the government matches it.
To put growth in perspective here are the current (Feb 09) OECD data/forecasts
Country 2008 2009 2010
Australia 2.5 1.7 2.7
Austria 1.9 -0.1 1.2
Belgium 1.5 -0.1 1.3
Canada 0.5 -0.5 2.1
Czech republic 4.4 2.5 4.4
Denmark 0.2 -0.5 0.9
Finland 2.1 0.6 1.8
France 0.9 -0.4 1.5
Germany 1.4 -0.8 1.2
Greece 3.2 1.9 2.5
Hungary 1.4 -0.5 1.0
Iceland 1.5 -9.3 -0.7
Ireland -1.8 -1.7 2.6
Italy -0.4 -1.0 0.8
Japan 0.5 -0.1 0.6
Korea 4.2 2.7 4.2
Luxembourg 2.4 -0.5 1.9
Mexico 1.9 0.4 1.8
Netherlands 2.2 -0.2 0.8
New Zealand -0.5 -0.4 1.9
Norway 2.7 1.3 1.6
Poland 5.4 3.0 3.5
Portugal 0.5 -0.2 0.6
Slovak Republic 7.3 4.0 5.6
Spain 1.3 -0.9 0.8
Sweden 0.8 0.0 2.2
Switzerland 1.9 -0.2 1.6
Turkey 3.3 1.6 4.2
United Kingdom 0.8 -1.1 0.9
United States 1.4 -0.9 1.6
So the only countries doing better than Australia in the OECD now are Greece, Korea, Poland and Slovak Republic. They are all poorer per capita. No country as advanced as Australia has a higher growth rate. See
http://manyeyes.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/datasets/d4275c88f30611dd9b5f000255111976/versions/1
Socrates, @ 342,
He does seem pretty pessimistic though (or he did, maybe he’s changed his tune since August)
From 7:30 report, Aug 10 2008
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2008/s2385821.htm
PROFESSOR STEVEN KEEN: Best case scenario is a recession more severe than 1990 and lasting one and a half times as long.
Worst case is something up to the level of the Great Depression which was 20 per cent unemployment and lasting up to a decade.
perhaps because most of the MSM was so entralled by Howard,that his malign influence still lingers in how the News is presented.
Admittedly post 2007 there seems to be degree of objectivety but sadly these instances are few and far between.
Not as good as cash. A coffee here, sandwich there, pair of shoes, book, taxi fare… would vouchers come in $1 denominations? Do they give change? May as well give cash.
Or maybe they send every one a credit card with a $900 limit.
TP
Call me biased but that is why I would like to see more investment in national infrastructure. It creates employment and generates long term growth. Ports, electricity grid, freight rail, urban PT and water supply area all good investments, as is education.
Agree that demand creates jobs, but in this case short term jobs. Better for the government to create jobs- government jobs and employ people long term. Putting money into firms is plain stupid, instead governments should take them over and start over.
When people save money it makes it worse. How do you get out of a crisis if people are keeping it sitting in a bank. It is possible that by keeping it sitting their eventually interest rates go so low that long term savings due to inflation or time and value diminish the value of the savings. We need to get the economy moving and only government creating and owning jobs will drive a recovery. How will this view that letting the private sector drive a recovery help when it prime focus is on reducing costs, and profit, essentially greed and greed has got us into this crisis.
Absolutely. Luckily Howard left so much infrastructure to be done.
It would be a miracle for us to grow by 1.7% this year. UEFO predicts 1% for ‘08-’09, and 0.75% for ‘09-’10.
Doing what? The government doesn’t make steel, doesn’t make underpants. What are these people in the sectors likely to be hit first going to do? Dig holes?
Listy
True but in that quote he says that something as bad as the depression is the worst case oucome. If you look on his blog it shws that australian private debt now is not as bad as the US was in the depression. Also Keens vies are the most pessemistic on this topic.
Remember i and all of us are making predictions and these economists are predicting as well. Like Budget deficits since when have Treasury got our surplus/ deficits levels in this country correct or near correct?
ShowsOn
I agree that the OECD figures are probably optimistic now, but the point was to show the comparison. Australia is doing better than most.
About 2/3 of the 2nd stimulus is infrascture, but most of the money won’t be spent until the 09-10 financial year. It just takes too long to organise, design, plan and build things.
Sure, but they take a long time to plan and build, the stimulus package was designed to have an effect ASAP. Hence cash payments up front, and then LOTS (thousands) of small infrastructure projects, rather than a few really big ones.
Well, $21 billion of cash payments will increase demand a lot. The package is designed to be short term, because it is hoped that within 12 – 18 months it is hoped growth will pick up, so it is no longer necessary for government payments to support jobs.
So that means you are going to spend a lot of money on lawyers, managers, and other consultants instead of giving that money to more people who need it.
This is nonsense. The federal government comprises just 25% of the economy.Most people are employed by the private sector. The government simply can’t grow big enough quick enough to have enough effect.
Because when the economy booming it is the private sector that drives growth.
Socrates #369 – Infrastructure
What about the guy who suggested transferring water from Tasmania – (where they have lots) – to Victoria – ( where we have sweet FA). The idea is that if he taps into a source in Tasmania 200m above Sea level or more, he will not need POWER to pump the water from Tas to a Vic water storage – gravity will do it for us.
BTW – If we are serious about infrastructure during a time of increasing unemployment, what about retro fitting older suburbs such as mine, with a “black” tap for recycled water. This source of water will cover toilets, washing machines, and gardens – not food producing.
and on top of that, Water tanks installed for free – house holder pays for tank – (refund of install cost for anyone who has paid to install tank LESS any rebates).
I think one thing missing in regards to Infrastructure,the economy and growth trends is a Mission statement or “5 year plan” by the Gvt.
I prefer to call it a revised ’social contract’ setting out where we as a society want to be.
Besides providing a framework to achieve national objectives, it would allow for a certain amount of direction for the private sector.
So what do you suggest Dario?
Their are many many things we could do… The environment needs help employ people in cleaning up our creeks, lands in the Murray Darling Basin. Jobs in infrastructure development, bridges, roads, public transport. Getting the young into apprenticeships can only be of benefit to this country in the long run.
Time i nodded of must work bye.
The argument last night was that the federal government should own shops. No one could say what these shops would sell, and why private companies couldn’t sell the same things.
Well over most of the last decade it under-estimated, because commodity prices and tax revenues kept exceeding even treasuries somewhat optimistic predictions.
This is what Infrastructure Australia is for. The problem is, things like a high speed train network, or a new high way system etc just can’t be built quickly enough. You’ve got to plan, design, amend plans, pass legislation. Projects like thsi would be good, but they just take too long to organise.
Most of these jobs are people with civil engineering degrees that earn a lot of money to do specialised work.
This is not intended to be a party political comment at all, but I can’t understand why the media are so positive about our outlook.
All these comments about recovery in the second half of this year are absolute bollocks (or if it does happen, it will be very short-lived). We’ll be very lucky if we get out of this with only a mild recession.
The US dollar has to collapse some time in the fairly near future. That’s going to cause chaos on currency markets and probably with inflation to boot. Everyone’s going to go into serious decline.
I’m hopeful that we’ll be the least worst developed country, but that’s the best we can hope for.
It’s not Rudd’s fault, or Howard’s.
Gusface 379
That is a really good point abotu long term plans. Frustratingly most governments in the 90s and long term plannign went backwards. When plans were published they weren’t implemented. With AusLink that started to improve from 2006 onwards, but it is still a problem. Because mos governmetns didn’t want to be seen comitting themselves to anything they tended to put off the detailed up front planning you need ot do, so its now very hard to start these projects fast. Everyone in my office has buckets of work to do now to try to get projects to the construction stage.
Saw Pascal Lamy (of the WTO, I think) on Lateline, trying to reassure everyone that all will be fine.
His middle name must be Canute.
Now Now Shows, you normal dont misrepresent so poorly
As was pointed out via specific examples the stae gvts do own shops,as yourself conceded federally re Aus post.
As was pointed out so succintly, the proposal was along the lines of the comm bank competing ,as it was, against the private banks. Not SOLE participation in the market.
0/2
Pretty much what the government has done. Short term stimulus being cash to keep things moving until medium term stimulus in infrastructure spending can kick in.
That is not a short term stimulus
That is not a short term stimulus
That is not a short term stimulus
The OECD are crazily optimistic now (not having a go at you, Soc, I realise you’re just showing the comparison).
Look at Japan and Korea for example.
robf:
dyno:
LOL!
Interesting contrast!
The U.S. dollar won’t collapse will the U.S. government keeps issuing billions of dollars of bonds. People need U.S.$s to buy the bonds, which means demand for the currency will remain strong, which forces the value up.
Gusface, I can’t see anything wrong with having a player in banking and/or insurance who is Govt owned. As long as their charter is to make a “commercial dividend” (suitably defined) for their owner, so they don’t just undercut everyone else by doing loss-making business.
Exactly. It seems many are just disagreeing with the government’s actions because they were the government’s actions. They don’t have any real alternatives, or if they do, they aren’t practical, immediate, or effective. And more often than not, the only thing they can say about the government’s actions is that they “haven’t worked”, with no proof of course.
ShowsOn, you’re assuming people are going to keep buying the bonds. At some stage they will stop.
Soc
I think there is a lot of merit in having a “plan”
At least by setting a benchmark we have an idea of what needs doing and provision is made for future trends/growth.
My understanding was that COAG was supposed to be the relevant body to administer and develop said plans but nothing was ever done under the libs.
Just to clarify, I don’t think we are travelling too badly right now, and of course we’re doing well compared to all other first world countries.
But the future looks grim.
Australia post is the ONLY one I can think of, and only AusPost offices in capital cities are owned by the FEDERAL government. MOST post offices are FRANCHISES that are privately run and owned small businesses. (0/1)
Name a shop that a state government owns. I can’t think of one. (0/2)
But that seemed to be the idea, the government runs shops that run at a loss, and are subsidised by the taxpayer!
This is what Infrastructure Australia is for.
No THEY won’t, because the bonds are fully backed by the government, so they are a completely safe investment.
The US is running up debt it won’t be able to repay. There’s only two solutions to that problem, ultimately:
1. The US Govt could simply default. This could lead to the end of civilisation as we know it, unless someone else (?China?) can step up to the plate as the world’s reserve currency.
2. They could print so much money that the debt becomes worth much less. That will only stuff the world’s financial system for say 5 years. By far the lesser of the two evils.
I am very keen to be proved wrong on this. It is a topic of far more importance in my eyes than, say, the result of the next election or two.
Only in theory. In practice the US will need to print so much money that inflation will destroy the value of the investment.
Dyno
Now is a good time to draw a line in the sand and determine whether it is not prudent to actively have the Gvt participate in areas such
Banking
Finance
Insurance
Trades
Services
Clothing
paper/printing
muntions
heavy industry
Food
In fact IMHO virtually every area that is a need, the gvt participates in and leave the wants totally to private enterprise.
Maybe I’ve been imbibing too much of Steve Keen.
Off to bed, anyway!
Why won’t it be able to repay it? You are assuming that the economy will never grow ever again.
This will never happen, because it is completely unnecessary. The U.S. economy even now has a GDP of US$14 trillion, it can afford to run huge debts for a short period. It did this during the great depression, it did this during WWII.
You are completely underestimating the size of the world economy. The U.S. economy is 35% of the world. It can afford huge debts.
Banking – No
Finance – No
Insurance – Yes, compulsory insurance only
Trades – No
Services – No
Clothing – No way
paper/printing – No
muntions – No
heavy industry – No
Food – No way!
I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. Because if I am right the next 10 years are going to be very messy.
Oh I forgot:
Shops – No way in hell
The future of millions of Chinese people is determined by Americans buying cheap goods from China. The Chinese won’t let the U.S. economy fail, because that could lead to social revolt, which could put the power of the Chinese communist party in jeopardy.
So the Chinese will keep buying U.S. bonds to held the world economy recover.
Shows
I respect your outright rejection of those areas.
why only this one?
FYI the list was areas that did have some form of gvt participation in the past.
shops really get under your skin it seems
http://www.theage.com.au/national/rates-held-steady-after-sixmonth-slide-20090303-8nfi.html
Which is what I thought (and what everyone was saying) till fairly recently.
Don’t forget though, if the US’s debt position becomes too parlous, the Chinese may well figure they’re better to get off the ride now, than wait say another year or two, and then discover that America’s problem (which is also by implication their own problem) has got much worse.
We will see. (And Hillary will be spending lots of time in China, by the way).
Because if you are forced to do something, it should be the government that does it. I am thinking of compulsory third party insurance for cars. So if you crash into someone, then the damage to the OTHER person’s car must be insured, even if you choose not to insure your own car.
That’s the past. What government run clothes makers were there?
I’m still waiting for you to explain EXISTING shops run by state governments. Post offices don’t count, because a) it is federal (it has to be, communications is a federal responsibility in the constitution) and b) MOST post offices are private franchises.
Greens Australian Democrats Labor Party Family First Liberal Party National Party One Nation
81.5% 85.7% 76.4% 42.3% 35.2% 28.8% 35.2%
In that order. Everyone comes up a democrat. bring back Natasha and I’ll think about it.
The government is doing a stirling job. My prediction is we will bottom out in August- it will stay the same till mid 2010 and slowly start to pick up- but get no worse.
Method used- crystal ball, zodiac, and gut feeling- I believe all 3 are as acurate as anyone else’s will prove to be.
The Government spin should be “this shows our stimulus packages are helping save jobs”.
Another cheery thought: one distinguishing feature of this crisis is that in most respects even the pessimists have been too optimistic all along the way. So we shouldn’t assume that we yet understand, for example, the dimensions of the debts the Yanks are going to rack up.
One exception may be the Australian economy. Will be interesting to see the Dec growth figure but if it’s positive then we will have cause for hope, at least in the short term.
ShowsOn #389
I figure the Govt is trying to steer the Lemmings. The financial Market lemmings are either jumping, or think they have to jump, so that they have become as useful as teats on a bull – (someone tell me how to do emoticons and/or pictures of bulls with teats).
The Financial experts are going to downgrade, or upgrade their stocks based on how the dead animal skeletons land on the ground – after shaking in a Vic Market bought beanie -with their fingers crossed.
What annoys me is that these shallow muppets are F’ing with ordinary peoples’ lives. TV financial reports are just awful – they roll in the next 25 year old FW to read the auto cue re stock changes – ( think I may have witnessed approx 10 x 25 year old FW’s in my life of paying attention – are they collector’s items? Can I cash in the ones I’ve already got?).
The market does not judge things rationally. It appears to be full of deluded FW’s who believe they are intelligent, while at the same time, judging by the outcomes of their actions, they are so shallow, mosquito larvae would have trouble gestating in their pools of wisdom.
Rant Over.
BTW for the non Victorians.
On the Rumour File on 3AW this am
Andrew Bolt is invited to a Private School to speak. During which he asks “Does anybody know a member of the stolen generation?” To which no one does. “See, that proves they don’t exist”
Schoolboy then stands up and asks “Does anyone know someone who lived through the holocaust?” Answer – No
This is one of those stories you hope is true.
This is the genius of having a floating exchange rate. As the economy slows, the value of the dollar drops. This automatically increases the cost of imports, which discourages people from spending money on imports. They are more likely to spend money on domestic items, which helps increase domestic demand, which helps increase domestic growth, which secures jobs here.
Hoora and man can love his fellow brother. Long live the ALP
Actually CTP only covers third party *bodily injury*. You don’t have to be insured for damage to someone else’s car, or other property.
But I understand your point.
I think it does in the long germ, i.e. over years. But day to day, it is like an ADD suffering 9 year old on 7 litres of red bull.
Which private school invited Bolt there? I will put a big black line through it for at least 10 years.
shows
http://catalogue.nla.gov.au/Record/443119
Relax, Centaur. That’s the most obviously apocryphal story I’ve ever heard.
Evening WB
any thoughts re Gvt v private as per the list
Banking –
Finance –
Insurance -
Trades –
Services -
Clothing –
paper/printing –
muntions –
heavy industry –
Food -
I barely even count that, because it seems all it made were military uniforms. It didn’t make clothes that people could actually buy.
It was privatised by the Fraser government in 1982.
That quote was taken from here:
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;adv=;db=;group=;holdingType=;id=;orderBy=;page=0;query=%22Australian%20Government%20Clothing%20Factory%22;querytype=;rec=0;resCount=Default
Even if China might want to it cannot abandon the US. Everything is connected, the US is an important animal in the world ecology and is massive user and supplier. China may also be very heartened to see a President with a brain and a plan.
shows
http://www.countryenergy.com.au/wps/wcm/connect/cel/CE/AboutUs
From 30 years ago? lol
You understand this is being privatised don’t you.
I don’t consider an energy retailer a “shop”.
Glad you support fraser dario, always good to know where one stands.
I posted the link grumblebum
He’s mellowed in his old age
Dario
So you agree that privatising the Government Clothing Factory was a good idea??
YES!
Mr Smith Goes To Washington on Fox Classics. Good movie.
But its not a SHOP
Overall (pardon the pun), yes
Apparently it only made 65% of military uniforms. 35% were made by…. the private sector!
So lets sell the rest to private enterprise and have 0%.
In fact that was liberal policy!!
Mal and johnny would be so proud of you Shows and Dario
So Labor didn’t privatise the Commonwealth Bank? I must have been asleep for 10 years…
Perhaps in the future, people will compare the Intnl harvester case as the biggest gain for organised labour
and the liberal parties path to privatisation ,in the vanguard being the clothing factory,as the greatest gain for organised capital.
never said I agreed with it.
Yes please, and instead, let’s spend more money on:
Schools, hospitals, universities, libraries, police and fire stations, ambulance services, museums, national security, homeless shelters, migrant services, welfare payments, health clinics, family planning clinics, refugee services, mental health services, career advice centres, community halls, foreign aid, parks, playgrounds, sporting fields and courts, zoos, botanic gardens, concert halls, archives, war monuments etc
If these things are “liberal policy”, then I guess I’m happy for you to call me a Liberal.
At least you acknowledge that Paul and Bob would also be proud of me though
Unemployment,redundancies,job reskilling,social dislocation blah blah blah
oh and abrogate any direct control the gvt may exert in the marketplace
and also create a new layer to source said uniforms etc from “lowest cost’ suppliers
thereby hastening the collapse of a local industry
I prefer not to sully a once reasonable party with your nom de plume
perhaps an unreconstructured US style republican-
karl rovian almost at times
I think these things are covered when I wrote “welfare payments”. But I concede it wasn’t an exhaustive list.
It does control the market place through regulation. But I was explaining what I think it should directly spend money on.
WTF? This is funny considering I’m somewhere in the centre-Left.
Shows at most I would consider myself a moderate lefty all things considered.
what your centre left of I am not sure but in my view it certainly isnt ’socialism’.
I’m certainly not a socialist. I consider socialism a socioeconomic system that infringes on fundamental human rights. I believe in social liberalism, and in particular value pluralism. You can read all about it in this book:
http://www.amazon.com/Liberalism-Pluralism-Political-Contemporary-Politics/dp/0826450482/ref=sr_1_11?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236090761&sr=8-11
Costellos big opinion piece in the fairfax media
” I was reminded of this recently when I watched the musical Billy Elliot, which tells us what a terrible heartless person Thatcher was. But those closures led to a dramatic fall in carbon emissions.
These days Margaret Thatcher would be lionised as a greenhouse hero. Although it opposed her, British Labour can now use her efforts to boast about how much it reduced greenhouse gases against 1990 levels.”
What A piece of $#&@
BAsically he is spruiking for
a) himself
b) nuclear energy
He has done it pretty poorly I reckon.
Shows you how screwed up Costello’s mind is if he is reading political implications into silly film musicals.
I know I shouldn’t but…
I’m having a real ding dong with a drongo who rejoices in the nom de plume Rusted Mike on the PerthNow site under the thread “Australia Headed for Recession”.
Must admit I plagiarized some of your figures and turns of phrase from earlier on regarding ABS figures on retail sales etc. .
Anyway, I challenged him to to substantiate and provide evidence for his assertion that Labor’s own figures indicated there would be 300,000 unemployed by the end of the year.
His impeccable source? “Read the papers!”
I despair for the tool.
There is currently about half a million people unemployed. Treasury predicts there will be unemployment will be 7% (about 800,000) by June 2010. See page 1:
http://www.budget.gov.au/2008-09/content/uefo/download/Combined_UEFO.pdf
So, the poster is correct, Treasury estimates unemployment will increase by about 300,000 people by June next year. The stimulus package of this year will stop about 90,000 losing their jobs.
Shows
Ta for the link
never heard of Isaiah Berlin before.
you learn something new everyday
The main line of his argument is that people value things differently, so it is impossible to base public policy decisions on valuing one thing, i.e. wealth, or equality, or liberty, because different people value those things in different ways. You have to leave it up to different people to decide what they value the most.
Fulvio,
Can’t find the link on Perth Now
Sorry, He (and I) meant additional unemployed, Gusface.
If you think Obama has a tough job, spare a thought for Morgan Tsvangirai:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25136810-23109,00.html
Shows posted the link fulvio
cheers
Shows
are you a fox or a hedgehog
Frank, I can’t post links. Obviously I’m an idiot!
If you go to the Perthnow front page there is an article headline on the left, 3 or 4 inches down “Status quo RBA No Interest Rate Cut”. That takes you to a page which has a heading on the right “related links” . The link is “Economic Data Australia on Brink of Recession”.
Cheers.
And for those pkaying at home, here is Fulvio’s Stoush
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,25131474-5017962,00.html
Fulvio, just copy/paste the link in the comments window here and it will work fine.
And if you want to get funky, do something like this:
This is a link
Take out all the spaces inside the angle brackets except for the one in “a href”, and it looks like this:
This is a link
There y’go.
Or I could always fall foul of William’s whitespace stripper. Let LLL be (right angle bracket).
That’s hopefully more like it.
Or I could always fall foul of William’s whitespace stripper. Let LLL be the left angle bracket and RRR be the right angle bracket.
That’s hopefully more like it.
Does use of the less-than and greater-than elements work? i.e. < and >
<a href=”http://www.google.com.au”>This is a link</a>
from The Age today …..
I actually like seeing the URL so I know where I’m being linked to.
There’s little chance the attacks were by the Tamil Tigers.
Though that doesn’t necessarily mean it was the “Taliban” either. There are scores of extremist groups in Pakistan and it’s very stupid for the Western media to label them all as “Taliban” or “Al-Qaeda”.
Depending on the browser you’re using it is possible to determine the URL of an embedded link.
You can right-click on the link and select “properties”.
Firefox and Internet Explorer users can hover their cursor over the embedded link to display the URL at the bottom left of the screen (just above the “start” button).
from homosexuality to the art of blogging- this site really moves fast
… and onward to the Pakistani terrorist incident. Yep, moves fast.
Guys Cossie is lining up by putting out the pro nuclear. It is obvious that this will be his mantra as leader and will challenge the governments targets by pitching higher. It is easy to see right through the spineless one
Janet buckets the Liberals over exec salaries and applauds the Ruddster. I tell you, Rudd is to the right of the Libs on a few things (and he’s in the right on this one).
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rights_crazy_class_war_on_ceos/
It is now clear that Costello has two jobs: Member for Higgins and “Age” columnist. Is he supplementing his backbencher income?
I didn’t understand Howard’s support for nuclear power and I don’t understand Costello’s. It’s never going to fly in the electorate. It’s a free kick for Labor.
guys a quick summary of arguments against nuclear, with some sourses. i want to pen a letter
Cossie’s finished, he just hasnt got the message yet, i think Hockey will be the next experiment and that one is going to fail as well, until they can come up with a cleanskin not tainted with Howard’s baggage they’ll all fail, thats what labor had to do with Rudd, the coalition would be better off by having a clean sweep of the dead wood at the next election {they’re going to lose it anyway} and bringing in new blood and training them up, block out the extreme right wingers and take a more middle ground stance—well that would get rid of Minchin and co, thats the best thing they could do for themselves and their rusted ons, shhh, dont tell them though.
Centaur009 #471,
My main arguments against nuclear:
a) The waste storage problem. This stuff is potentially harmful for (I believe) 30,000 years. That’s a thousand generations (!) into the future that inherit the problem.
b) The transport of input and output materials. Reactors must be built relatively close to built-up areas. Meaning toxic materials are constantly being transported past where people live, work and go to school. With any form of transport, accidents are a given.
c) Reactors, mines, waste storage sites are potential targets for terrorist attack.
centaur
The main argument is that it is too expensive. In a country like Oz where we have solar, wind, wave, geothermal and “clean coal” possibilities, nuclear just isn’t viable. Look at Europe which doesn’t have as many options. They’re building ONE nuclear reactor in all of Europe and haven’t had a new one start in about ten years. Every nuclear reactor in Europe has needed to be heavily subsidised to make it viable.
Centaur009 #471,
d) Economic. Correctly cost the Risks and the ongoing security and maintenance (30K years) and then see how cheap it is.
Judith, therein lies the problem IMO. It’s not a “moderate” party.
People like Pyne and Turnbull (said to be “moderates”) are the exceptions. They’re despised by many. They’d be sidelined at the drop of a hat if conditions allowed.
The up-and-comers in the party, the young “Liberals” – are, if we’re to believe the reports, anything but liberal: right-wing nutcases.
From almost the top (deputy leader, Bishop) right to those neophytes at the bottom, the toxic right is poisoning the Liberal Party.
e) The NIMBY factor. Where are you going to build all the plants?
thanks guys- my letter will hammer him
Cuppa, i’m quite happy for them to continue blindly stumbling around right now, but eventually there’ll come a day when we will need a strong opposition to pull the government into line, look how power went to Howard’s head when there was no viable opposition, Rudd is no Howard but pressures from the party could eventually push his government towards extreme idiology, we WILL eventually need a good strong sensible opposition to keep things in balance, theres no-one in the coalition that could possibly fill that role yet, i think in about the third term it would probably start to be important.
Centaur, I think a big point to make is that he’s Australia (who has no nuclear plants) should “do it” because France, Japan, the UK and the US are “doing it”. He’s leaving out they already have plants so it’s fairly pointless comparison, and only the UK is building more (to replace it’s aging plants about the be decommissioned).
It’s a completely disingenuous argument and frankly, unrelated to the question of whether Australia should adopt nuclear power.
Oh, and for those idiots suggesting nuclear is “safe”.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,566412,00.html
*He’s saying.
What about..
f)
the severe shortage of experienced engineers and designers
g)
the start-up time and greenhouse gas start-up costs: i.e. 10 years for planning and building followed by much increased national gg release during the buidling stage
h)
the rapidly increasing running costs if many more nuclear plants around the start competing for finite fuel resources
Can anyone with experience or knowledge in the tertiary education sector shed some light on how this is going to change things?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/uni-revolution-students-to-set-demand-20090304-8ntv.html
It looks like a pretty big upheaval:
Caps on student numbers in universities will be scrapped and demand for particular courses will determine how universities are funded.
In a major change to the higher education system announced today, Education Minister Julia Gillard said that from 2012, government funding will follow student demand, allowing universities to enrol as many students as they wish.
i) Massive decommissioning costs which are NEVER factored in to the original ‘cost’, ‘which would leave a massive debt to our children’
Government ownership of CBA was beneficial to Australians during the early years, when PM Andrew Fisher and Labor created the CBA. Now we have many banks. It doesn’t make sense to keep the CBA in government hands.
Telstra on the other hand, they are a monopoly. Telstra should never have been privatised.
Privatisation of many things shouldn’t happen, but I do believe markets should take over in other things.
Conversely, ANYTHING is better than continuing to rely on coal-fired power stations, which will quite possibly cause human extinction in this century.
Shit
GDP -0.5 seasonally adjusted for Q4 08
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0/
Trend -0.1%
Seasonally Adj. -0.5%
Is seasonally adjusted the usual quoted figure? Unadjusted it’s -0.1.
welcome to recession !!
*balloons and confetti fall from the sky*
no, two consecutive quarters of negative growth = recession.
Manufacturing (-0.5 percentage points), Property and business services (-0.3 percentage points), and Wholesale trade (-0.2 percentage points).
Bit off topic here, but so was the first few pages eh?
The brand new you-beaut LNP ain’t running a candidate in the Qld seat of Gladstone, so basically they’re leaving it for Liz Cunningham to win. Wimps.
bob, if we went backwards in the December quarter, pretty sure we’ll be backwards in this quarter.
Oz, the point is that we’re not yet in a recession.
seasonally adjusted is the normally used figure
If you were a betting person, you’d have to say yes
This ought to teach you a lesson. Never trust the economists. they were predicting +0.2% to +0.5%. Next time when they open their mouth, just tell them to shut-up.
2008 is still +1.2% – much better than anybody else: – 2% to – 6%. So who is the pretty boy now?
Real GDP for Q4 is +0.3%
hooray we are less buggered than the rest
And if we keep it up, Rudd has nothing to worry about.
Cite?
It makes the decision not to decrease interest rates look pretty crap.
of course it is all Kevin Rudds fault…
?
http://business.smh.com.au/business/recession-fear-as-gdp-shrinks-20090304-8nw6.html
Apparently the September 2008 figure could have been adjusted as well, but the ABS website doesn’t make it easy to find that.
The September figure has been left unchanged at +0.1%.
Just as well we squeaked in by 0.1% in Spetember or we’d officially be in a recession now.
Newspoll will be fun next week. Everything will be drowned out by this news and any change will reflect discontent/apathy on the state of the economy.
The GDP figure is actually a very good figure considering all those we trade with and sell to are broke. The rest of the world are going backwards at around -1% per quarter (worse in the US). Still, recession avoided or not it makes the opposition’s argumetn against the stimulus package look very stupid.
As Saul Eslake pointed out during the senate stimulus bill committee, most economists don’t actually use the “two quarters of negative growth” definition of a recession. That definition is something that journalists tend to use because it makes them sound like they know something about economics. Most economists look at unemployment, if it increases by 1% within 1 year, then they count that as a recession.
GDP for the year to December, yes
Swannie’s about to give a press conference. The stock exchange has “retested the bottom” again. I’m sure we’ll get “It would have been worse if there was no stimpac” from Swan, and “The Government caused the recession through mismanagement” from Hockey. Things are going to get interesting.
I dunno. The same arguments from both sides trotted out again and again. Gonna be pretty boring.
One thing that sucks is that the payments from the second stimulus package won’t have an effect in the first quarter of this year. Or they may as people start to spend a bit more knowing they are going to get a payment in April.
The media aren’t exactly trying to improve confidence in the economy are they? AdelaideNow headline:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25137372-5006301,00.html
I think it just works against the opposition. Whenever bad news comes out, Rudd can point to the world economy, and to the action te government has already taken. But for Turnbull, he has to somehow pretend that doing nothing would’ve been better.
Oz
It’s been a technical argument up til now because we didn’t have negative growth. Now that it is a reality, voters are going to make their minds up. It will get a lot more heated. As you say, most will be hot air.
At the bottom of the pile on who do you trust in the GFC/GEC debate are the economists and journalists.
ShowsOn
The OO has gone with “AUSTRALIA ON THE BRINK OF RECESSION”
They sound very pleased with the result. It’s a bit sickening really.
I have confidence that the economists in the RBA and Treasury know what they are doing, and are giving useful advice to government.
That’s pretty much it. It’s not as though he can see “Our way would have been better!” when his way was seriously to do nothing.
ABC online finally decides to offer an opinion on a story and what is it..
And for most it still will be.
The RBA look a bit stupid right now.
LOL. The second stimulus package STILL hasn’t actually begun flowing yet, the first only came in in December, more than 2/3 of the way INTO Q4.
It guarantees an interest rate cut next month.
Well, everything hinges on the figure in three months. The first stimulus might come into play in a big way then.
I’m certain the opposition will try it.
Sure, buy they, and most other economists were blind sided by this.
Of course if the argument is that a negative figure will go down badly for the government now then a positive figure, probably some time either late this year or early next year, will go down a treat for them. Just in time for the election.
Who thinks this will change Government policy? What other changes can they make? Spending anymore money will be be difficult to get through the parliament I think.
Saul Eslake says that without the Rudd government stimulus package(s), we’d have had a much worse GDP result.
“The Australian Bureau of Statistics says the main reason for the fall is a slide in businesses’ inventories.”
Hidden in the statement is some good news. If inventories are reducing it means that companies have resisted the urge to make “profits” by continuing to make that which is currently not wanted by the marketplace. When the turn comes low inventories mean that the take-up in employment and business will be quicker than would be the case if we were awash in excess inventories that would have served no other purpose than to cause a potentially unrecoverable loss in profit margins due to ongoing discounting.
The Reserve Bank’s action yesterday show that they have some confidence that the acceleration of the downturn has at least been arrested. What is less certain however is how long we will be tanking along the bottom of that trend.
If the next GDP figure is better than -0.5% then that will be very good news indeed. However – it’s very hard to see a “technical” recession being avoided.
Why would they need to change policy now? The stimpacs haven’t had time to work yet. A bit premature don’t you think?
The ABC says:
Which is interesting, as wasn’t it the Opposition who were arguing there was no need for the stimulus because there was no recession coming?
I expect the “most likely will see” bit is slightly sneaky as the ABC has probably been told this is exactly what the Libs will argue (and the ABC will dutifully ask the “hard” questions, which always seem to materialise, as long as the interviewee is a government minister).
Expect crowing from the peanut gallery. Expect “We told youse so’s” from all and sundry. The bastards finally got their wish, or at least half of it.
LOL. Everyone looks STUPID right now.
Now thats its official and Australias in recession driving thousands of people into poverty Queensland voters have an opportunity on March 21 TO SEND A MESSAGE TO CANBERRA. Labor seems to always cause these terrible recessions.
And rightly we should. Saul is on the same page.
Continuing #537…. Except my friend Yogi bear, he is smarter than all of us.
Paul Nash, you disturb me. You prove you’d want the economy to tank just because Labor is in power. Australia is in a better position than practically any other western economy. How is this Labor’s fault and not the GFC?
Maybe it’s Labor’s fault that we’re NOT in as bad a position as others.
VOTE LABOR OUT.
SHAME ANNA SHAME.
SHAME ANNA SHAME.
Hewson: LABOR’S GOT TO GO! LABOR’S GOT TO GO!
lulz
Paul Nash, you should get back to work trying to get your rabble elected. You haven’t got time to sprout such utter crap on a blog like this surely.
AND the Liberals are never in government to handle these recessions funny that?
Oh I remember they can’t handle wars either the Country Partys Arthur Fadden had to replace Menzies because he wasn’t up to it.
It’s not official yet
Are you saying the Labor government caused this global recession? lol, funny stuff
Remind us, when did we last see a quarter of negative growth?
Were you alive when Malcolm Fraser and John Howard presided over Australia and it’s recession in the late 70s/early 80s, when they left the economy to rot, leaving Hawke/Keating to modernise the Australian economy and recover it?
John Curtin saved Australia in WW2.
And we won’t even mention WW1.
My friend Yogi bear has just muttered: “Paul Nash, you are the most stupid”
Paul has just shown everyone the nasty, opportunistic streak that inhabits the minds of many in the opposition. How ugly it is.
Get rid of Ross Childs, bring back Nicole Chettle!
Seeing people Paul Nash demonstrate to us that GP and Glen actually do have some level of understanding, however misguided it may be.
*Seeing people like
What is the difference between:
GDP to Dec Q: +0.3%
GDP Annual rate: +1.2%
??????
Does anyone realise that an asteroid the same size as the one that landed in Siberia in 1908 missed the earth by only 60,000km yesterday? If it had hit us it would have made the GFC look like very small potatoes indeed.
No it wouldn’t have according to what I read. It was only 30m wide and most if not all of it would have burnt up on entry.
Where did that number come from?
Regarding Fins 518 comment on who people trust and economists (I am not an economist BTW) I think you need to distinguish between actual economists and people who comment on economics in the media. Many of the later are just salesmen, trying to get you to invest with Comsec or whoever. Their comments are little better than paid adds.
Considering Warwick Capper and Pauline Hanson share the same publicist, who thinks Capper announcing he would run, and then didn’t sign up by nomination day, was just a publicity stunt for Hanson?
Who owns Zoo Magazine the original sponsors of Capper?
I thought Hanson running was a publicity stunt for Wilson Tuckey? Or was it Barrie Humphries?
Rudd is running the “It would’ve been worse doing nothing” line:
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25137583-31037,00.html
Difficult times demand innovative solutions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKuWgydHplw
Rudd is also campaigning with Bligh in the Industrial city of Gladstone today where is proposed ETS or Carbon Reduction Strategy will decimate jobs and drive more regional people to dispair.
Pity the Liberals are proposing an even higher ETS.
Back to square one again eh Paul?
Yeah, it’s so much easier for politicians to just deny that climate change is occurring.
I think climate change is an ETHNIC conspiracy caused by ETHNICS in the LNP.
Paul continues to trot out the National Party propaganda. Paul, sell it to those who matter, the voters of Queensland. You’re wasting your “talents” here.
#556-7
This site says that the asteroid was a similar size to the 1908 Siberian one.
http://www.spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=02&month=03&year=2009
There’s some good stuff on the recent satellite collision there too.
But we’re just as sick of his loony, unsubstantiated ravings over at Pineapple Party Time too.
This Richard Larkins guy at the National Press Club is completely dissing the university education policies of the Howard government.
Asteroids will always miss the earth under a federal Labor government!
(and if they hit, it’s the fault of Nathan Rees and Joe Tripodi)
I read an excellent article about the 1908 asteroid in a copy of Scientific American which I found on the Berlin U-Bahn last year. It explained why there was no crater – because it exploded in the air rather than hit the ground, making a massive gas explosion which destroyed everything in an area of 2000km2. There was an expedition a few years ago which took core samples from a lake at the centre of the blast area and actually found bits of the asteroid under the mud.
LOL!!!
Paul Nash makes me appreciate Glen even more LOL
No, it’s because of 11 years of neglect of our asteroid defences, caused by rampant asteroid denialism, under the Howard government. Even now the Coalition is threatening to block Labor’s $700 trillion asteroid aversion package in the Senate.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/02/2505383.htm
Fagin: Mike Carlton had a good line this morning on Sydney radio.
If the asteroid is to fall anywhere, let it be on Federation Square in Melbourne LOL
http://www.cnn.com/2009/TECH/science/03/03/asteroid.misses.earth/?iref=mpstoryview
It’s funny how NSW Labor is so bad that it puts the attention off how bad the NSW Liberals are.
Only the Liberals could manage winning Newspoll on 56-44 but still be behind Labor on Preferred Premier.
bob1234: O’Farrell is a dud opposition leader, he’s gotten by so far on the unpopularity of the state govt and the stench surrounding Tripodi/Obeid/Della Bosca.
It helps the Libs too that the media in Sydney is blatantly anti-Labor.
Even John Howard couldn’t maintain a lead on Preferred PM against Keating. But Rudd always maintained a lead over Howard.
They’re still wiping the egg off their faces from the last election when they were pushing for a Lib win lol.
Rees improves as preferred Premier and they start leadership speculations against him, whereas the Dud goes backward but he’s safe
The OO has a new headline, even worse than the last one. It screams;
WE’RE IN RECESSION ALREADY
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25137644-30538,00.html
If you look at the comparison to other countries=/a> Australia is doing really good.
I assume he meant “quick blowing of the budget surplus”.
This is the same bloke who three weeks ago wrote an article saying the government should cut taxes, which would’ve inevitably blown the budget surplus, just using a different method.
Wayne Swan should read this entire list out during Question Time.
March 10-19 is the last allotment of sitting days before a 2 month break which is when budget time begins.
March 10-19 should be interesting.
Has anyone predicted the end of the Rudd honeymoon yet?
Since December 2006 I believe.
Yes, Glenn Milne said it finished around this time last year.
So, are we there yet?
[Wayne Swan should read this entire list out during Question Time.
+ 1
Dario, that Annual GDP of +1.2% was splashed on Skynooooows and its business channel.
And then this little beauty from SMH:
http://business.smh.com.au/business/recession-fear-as-gdp-shrinks-20090304-8nw6.html
So if annualized GDP at the Sept Q was +1.8% and then the DecQ was -0.5%. So 1.8-0.5 = +1.3%.
We are here to confuse you and we will and we have.
Adam,
Is the Adam Carr quoted here, you?
http://www.crikey.com.au/Business/20090304-Ask-the-economists-were-not-sure.html
This never happened when that nice Mr McMahon was Treasurer. Bring back Billy!
Confused of Double Bay
No, it is someone trying to cash in on my fame. I have warned him, but he persists.
P. Nash @ 565
“Rudd is also campaigning with Bligh in the Industrial city of Gladstone today where is proposed ETS or Carbon Reduction Strategy will decimate jobs and drive more regional people to dispair.”
I enjoyed this comment. Not for the actual substance of the comment (which was vapid and pointless), but the last word in the clause (’dispair’) amused me no end. It reminded me of a very funny (and very naughty) joke I heard regarding a pair of Jamaicans at a costume party. ‘Dispair’ also happened to be the last word in the joke.
This is the real me
http://www.bebo.com/adamc987
kakuru,
There is a version that ends with “dis pair are forking dis custard”.
This is the real me too
http://www.mk-lightning.com/MK-Lightning-Roster/Adam-Carr-A.html
Dennis is very positive about the figures. He’s almost salivating over them.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au//story/0,25197,25137684-17301,00.html
Stop Googling your name, and get back to work.
It also has the line that Australia’s economy is performing better than all other developed economies in the world.
It can also say that the social dividend of this economic collapse of that every primary school in the country will have a new building.
It can also say that it has relaxed rules on unemployment assistance so people who lose their jobs will be better protected.
“The big political debate will be whether Canberra’s quick blowing of the budget deficit was worth it.”
I think by “quck blowing of the budget deficit” he meant increasing it by about 12% – incurring a $180 billion deficit over 4 years rather than the $160 billion over 4 years.
At least people like Saul Eslake are realistic and say the figures would have been worse without the Rudd stimuli.
Dennis will make sure of all of that!
“Predictable” defence… what does it matter as long as it’s a correct defence?
So he is having a whinge about 1.7% of GDP? And he writes articles on economics?
Only people who are batshit insane think the figures would’ve been better.
I’ll always remember Adam Carr the way he used to be.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=User:Adam_Carr&oldid=103779239
ShowsOn (607) Isn’t ‘batshit’ apt to boredom rather than insanity?
Despite the fact that inflation is still running at over 3%, Turnbull continues to say Labor “talked up” inflation. He refuses to acknowledge that the stimpac in any way made today’s figures better, despite almost universal approval of it from all quarters – business, consumers and economic commentators.
WHAT IS THIS MAN SMOKING?
Opportunism.
here’s this imposter – he doesn’t look a bit like me, so people won’t be fooled long
http://www.uq.edu.au/economics/index.html?page=63961
I am still much like that. But I had to leave Wikipedia or I would have been driven mad.
Was it people constantly vandalising pages you spent hours editing?
Yesterday’s OECD had greece’s growth ahead of Aus- that has got to be bull butter. They are in disaray and a mess politically, socially and economically- and that’s coming from a Greek. the Czech republic was also not mentioned which is doing very well
The big problem for Dennis and his ilk is that most people realise it isn’t the government’s fault and they see a government doing everything possible to minimise the negative effects of the GFC. They also see an opposition that is void of solutions.
Adam,
At the risk of being shallow and puerile, Darryl Cotton has you pinged.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U2MVYeIdTIY
This is unfair, they’re gonna balance the budget by cutting taxes!
I’d say it was the debates people had over what should and shouldn’t be included, how it should be worded, and the subsequent edit warring.
I’ll miss his photographic contributions the most.
Why is Turnbull looking Hannibal Lecter in the Silence of the Lambs?
Whose liver is he going chomped?
ShowsOn
Denis Shanahan, Peter Costello and Malcolm Turnbull have (amoung other things) one thing in common – none of them have ever studied an economics degree. As I said before, when peopel criticise economists, one of teh problems in perception is that most of the economic “commentators” that dominate our news are content free. They know the jargon to use but have little idea what it means.
Socrated,
“They know the jargon to use but have little idea what it means”.
Perhaps they own teenagers and have tried to talk to them!
malcolm was using his best foghorrn voice on the 3pm ABC news
All high dudgeon and confected indignance
tho all he really said was that Rudd had made the wrong economic choices
At least those ships in the night will avoid the rocks now thanks to our very own Liberal lighthouse
The Liberals would have had a lot more credibility if they began to criticise Rudd economically from now, or even since the stimulus package. But the fact that they’ve criticised Rudd very harshly on the economy before and after Rudd’s election means that nobody is listening to them anymore. It’s all about the boy who cried wolf. Turnbull or any other Liberal can cry all they want, people have stopped listening.
Obama’s approval rating is 60% (disapprove is 26%, the rest is not sure), his approval for economic handling is 56% compared to 31% who disapprove.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_NewsPoll_030309.pdf
GG, Ill take that as the complement I’m sure it was intended to be.
ShowsOn, the basic problem with Wikipedia is that nothing is ever finished. You write an article, you come back a month later and it’s been turned into nonsense, you write it again, and so on. After a while you give up on it. Wikipedia works on the theory that all articles will evolve over time into better and better forms. In fact the reverse happens – over time articles degenerate to the level of popular ignorance on any given topic. I put forward a number of proposals to fix this, but they were rejected, so I left.
And let me guess, he didn’t explain an alternative? WOW sounds like his climate change ‘policy’.
Adam, the Kevin Rudd article isn’t too bad. Neither are the previous PMs. And there’s a lot more on Australian politics generally than there ever used to be.
And the 2007 election article is very good.
No 469
Janet’s argument is neither compelling or convincing. There is no reason why the owners of a company should have no say in how its executives are remunerated. Sacking the directors is inappropriate in circumstances where the dispute concerns remuneration not the overall quality of the management.
Siddle and Hilfenhaus both carrying minor injuries. Surely this means Bolinger will play in the next test; I really don’t like the idea of going into a crucial game with two injured bowlers.
No 630
“neither compelling or convincing” should be “neither compelling nor convincing”
Business spectator claims that today’s figures are not as bad as has been widely said, funnily enough from Adam Carr:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/SCOREBOARD-$pd20090304-PT5QL?OpenDocument&src=sph
Just in case you’ve forgotten:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okHGCz6xxiw
How can this be! This Mr Carr is assuming that stimulus packages work, when we all know that they don’t work don’t we Mr Person?
This Mr Carr must be a Communist, there’s no other logical explanation.
Bob1234
I was thinking exactly the same thing, ever since Rudd was elected we have had endless stories of how the world would now end, week after week of lies and negative reports on Labor from the Lib lackey jurnos. What has it achieved? constant 60/40 polls to ALP . People are so used to all the doom and gloom reporting that they have switched off, so we really should be thanking Shamaham and co for their BS and encouraging them to keep up the good work
No 635
Adam Carr expressed no opinion on the effect of the recessionary package.
Centaur009@615
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/02/13/afx6049178.html
Hi all. Long time lurker, but have now found a reason to post! The Czech Republic faced a .6% downturn in growth in the Dec quarter. Things have been holding together much better in Czech than elsewhere in Europe but they are also on the slippery slope to recession.
As an aside my Father-in-law owns a transport company in Czech that services most of Europe and they’re still turning profits. He’s more than happy with the GFC because his employees have stopped whinging about pay rises, they’re just happy to be in work!
It’s the argument I use against Citizen Initiated Referendums. We elect politicians to run the country. We don’t try to micromanage what they do, because we do not have the expertise or access to the advice they get. If we don’t like the results, we sack them. I don’t want government policy decided by referendum – look at California, bankrupt because of endless earmarking of funds by CIRs.
No 639
There’s no reason why stricter rules around CIRs could not be used if they were ever introduced here. Your argument is inherently undemocratic.
Can you f’ing read? The first sentence says:
The POLICY he is referring to is increased government spending in the stimulus packages. The “policy” can’t refer to interest rates, because he mentions the “cash rate” later in the sentence.
He is saying that the December quarter is likely to be the worst one, because the Government and the RBA hadn’t done much to promote growth during that period, and policy changes made in early December will take time to have effect (note the use of the word “lag”).
You need to work on your reading comprehension skills.
I am in favour of parliamentary democracy and Cabinet government with ministers responsible to Parliament, not irresponsible populist demagoguery with unsound decisions for which no-one takes responsibility, which is what CIRs always lead to. I guess that makes me a Communist too.
What wise words. This other Adam Carr is nearly as clever as me
Oops, I forgot actually to post his wise words:
“hate to break it to some people but you don’t get a recession in Australia because inventories keep falling. You need a consumer, business or dwelling investment slump – while that may come we don’t have that, there is no evidence of it occurring and there are compelling arguments as to why it won’t.”
With the Economy contrading by 0.5 percent in the December 08 quarter and all prospects of another contraction in the March 09 quarter now is not the time for the Rudd Government to introduce an ETS or Carbon Reduction Scheme it just will see more people need up on the unemployment scrapheap. I note with interest Heather Ridout from the Industry lobby asking that the Government postpone the ETS to at least 2012. With the Recession hitting full swing this year and then slowing recovering next nows not the time to follow a Green anti-industrial agenda. Labor was once the proud political party that stood for full employment now it doesn’t care if unemployment is double digits as long its upper middle class wankers who care for lifestyle issues like the environment are satisfied. Queenslanders SEND A MESSAGE TO CANBERRA- LABORS GOT TO GO
Hear hear!
Fraser and Menzies were probably communists too.
No 644
I’ve only been saying that our economy is fundamentally strong for the last six months.
So why has Turnbull released his own ETS which goes further?
Yes, that’s due to Labor’s good economic management.
And you’ve conceded that the stimulus package will keep us out of a recession. For that, I thank you.
No 642
CIR, it would only ever lead to irresponsible populism if it was too easy to initiate a citizen’s referendum. With strict rules and requirements, I cannot see why there cannot be CIR provision if there was significant basis of support for one, in the order of hundreds of thousands of people.
Ministers being responsible to parliament is no longer a practical measure against incompetent government and I believe you yourself have admitted this in the past.
No 659
No, the Labor party inherited an economy that was fundamentally strong, able to weather forthcoming storms. It also inherited a budget that was heavily in surplus and which is now heinously in deficit.
good to get you on board trawler. last night when the report was commented on Czech was missing. as another aside I’ve visited prague twice 1991 and 2003. It was amazing, apart from st.Stephens bridge i could not recognise one thing it had developed so much. I only realised I was on the same street as last time beacuse of the gradient of the rode. I visit the rest of europe’s main cities and some in the same time frame and it’s pretty much the same, shops buildings etc.
Thanks to Labor. The economy was setup and configured by 1996 to be capable of riding the booms and being insulated from the busts. Much better than the way it was left in 1983.
And the Howard government spent half of it when they realised their political ass was on the line with Rudd Labor. What a way to run the country! Spend the surplus when in political trouble!
Unlike Rudd Labor who has done it from the outset, and during a bust, not a boom.
Like the one the Liberals inherited in 1996.
I’m just running the same argument in reverse so you can see how stupid the Howard government’s propaganda was.
The same with every other economy in the developed world.
It would be pretty extraordinary if that were not true given the enormous bonanza we have received from the mineral export boom over the past decade or so. The problem NOW is how to preserve the gains of the boom when all our trading partners are in or on the way to recession. Rudd’s solution is counter-cyclical spending, as advocated by virtually all economists. Turnbull’s solution is tax cuts for the wealthy and austerity for everyone else (see Premiers’ Plan). Something tells me the electorate will not find it hard to make a choice between those alternatives.
Well Adam, those qualifications pretty much disqualify you from shadow cabinet.
Interested in your comments on Wikipedia. The idea is noble, but assumes an over optimistic view of human nature. A prominent philosopher I have met tried to get the entry written on himself (but not by himself) corrected of some factual errors, and the moderator refused! The author was not keen to admit error.
I find Wikipedia quite good for non-controversial facts, but anything political can rapidly get twisted. The concept of “wikispin” is alive and well, with government agencies and corporations writing entrie on their own projects.
Rumours that Opel may separate from GM in order to get support from the German government.
If Opel goes, I wonder if Holden will go with it.
GDP would’ve been worse without stimulus – ACCI (Business Union):
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25138130-5005962,00.html
Yeah, there’s one obvious one directly from the parliamentary library.
Contributions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/202.14.81.49
Talk page: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User_talk:202.14.81.49
#657 – Yes, if your topic is Butterflies of Swaziland, you can write an article and no-one will touch it. But articles on any historical / political topic will be constantly attacked, vandalised, polemicised, filled with popular misconceptions and dumbed down.
I doubt Holden could survive on its own.
No 662
I agree. Holden has benefited greatly from its integration with GM by being able to leverage its international distribution channels to get into new export markets. Exports are the only reason keeping the Australian plant open.
Ford’s local manufacturing is unlikely to survive long term unless it adopts a serious plan to start exports.
Tax cuts are infinitely better than wasteful handouts.
Seems the vast majority of economists think infrastructure and handouts are infinately better than tax cuts.
I was talking about Opel and Holden leaving together. Either way, it’s going to be incredibly hard to disentangle any of the companies part of GM.
American car manufacturers are getting hammered though. Car sales were down 40% last month but European companies were down ~20% while GM and FORD were down more than 50%.
The stimuli is supported by the OECD, the IMF, the RBA, business groups, and economists, bar a slighty minority. It’s not worth fighting against it GP.
Arguing facts vs. ideology never works.
They actually aren’t, because they take longer for people to receive, and if they are on going they will produce…. wait for it G.P…… here it comes…. PROLONGED BUDGET DEFICITS.
Also, people are more likely to spend a single lump sum payment, if they are getting small tax cuts each fortnight to the same value they are more likely to save it.
And let’s not forget the government has tax cuts lined up since the election anyway.
Ah, I thought you meant Holden becoming another separate company.
Does Holden still make Opel badged Commodores?
He has to fight against it, because he has declared repeateldy that he wants the recession to be as deep and as prolonged as possible. He wants the misery index (inflation plus unemployment) to break the record that John Howard set when he was treasurer. That way he won’t be as embarrassed about how big an economic failure John Howard was.
I don’t see why Opel going would upset Holden? To my knowledge they are neither a source of parts not an export destination. GM’s stated plan (in rescue plan sent to Congress) to close Pontiac is more serious – they are the US brand outlet for export Commodore V8s and utes. If the GM parent dies, Holden are really sunk.
Mainly for high income earners though.
One thing I don’t understand is that the rumour is the Henry review of taxation and welfare payments is going to propose a reduction of the corporate tax rate.
Ideally the corporate tax rate, and the top income tax rate should be identical. That way there is no benefit for people to hide income as business profits, or business profits as income. It seems that each time we have the chance to make them exactly the same, some review comes up proposing a cut to one or the other.
My thinking was that GM is close to death and the best chance Holden would have of survival is to cut itself free, but keep a partnership with another potentially viable company.
The issue for Holden, if Opel breaks off, who owns the license for the Astra and the Vectra? Holden will be left with an outdated V6 Commodore.
Then please explain why the national savings rate is now the highest it has been in 20 years? Clearly people aren’t spending the handout to the extent the government would like.
So how do you explain retail sales growth in December AND January, when we’re in negative GDP?
Your ideology fails you once again GP.
Tax cuts are by definition mainly for high income earners, because they pay the most tax. I’m not against tax cuts a priori, provided they don’t undermine necessary state spending as has happened in the US under Reagan and Bush. But they are not a substitute fior counter-cyclical spending in the current circumstances.
Agreed. We’ve all seen what happened the last time the selectors picked someone who had bowling capability and wasn’t fully fit (Symonds). For that matter, what on earth is up with Michael Clarke? Ponting didn’t bowl him one over as I recall in the first test and there were certainly times where imho they could have used more spin options instead of going back to the same suspects each time. You overbowl someone and you fall into the situation you have at present
.
Oh FFS! The payments haven’t even started yet. The payments in December were mainly for pensioners and people on low incomes, of course they are going to save.
The payments starting in late March and into April are for people earning up to $100,000.
Treasury predicted that some of the money would be saved, but they argued during the senate committee that with tax cuts people are more likely to save more. Having a $900 cheque arrive in the mail psychologically makes people feel richer, rather than $35 tax cuts each fortnight spread over an entire financial year.
Looks like a recession and smells like one based on these figures good luck Swanny trying to get out of this one!
Before the stimulus package you were arguing that pensioners and low income earners don’t save they spend, spend, spend.
The two are not mutually exclusive
Oz 674
I have no idea; if GM breaks up someone needs to find a new owner for Holden (outside GM IMO) very fast. If not, be prepared to retrain 1000 workers in Elizabeth and a lot more in car yards around the country.
Well, you can target things better. For example, by increasing the tax free threshold. Or by giving an earned income credit that tapers out at say $75,000 – $100,000.
They have already been legislated for and will come into effect on July 1st. I think that money could be better spent, but I see it as extremely dangerous for a Labor government to delay or amend those tax cuts. I think that money should go to who needs it, then we can deal with major taxation reform next year, hopefully when the economy is growing again.
He had an injured back, and was no certainty to play in the test. I think it was wise to not bowl him.
680 Glen’s prayers have been answered. He loves it. Amazing stuff.
On the car issue, car sales dropped 22% in Feb after dropping 19% in Jan. This was despite heavy discounting. Mega-luxury cars did the worst.
It must be hard to justify your presence in the market if you sell only two cars in all of Oz in a month.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25137717-2702,00.html
Next Glen you’ll be telling us the stimpacs haven’t worked.
Yes Gary that $42bil stimulus that doesn’t start until April isn’t working didn’t you know
As Glen pops the corks! it’s celebrations all round at Liberal Parties. My friend owns a local bottle shop and said the Liberal branch who are his customers have just bought 4 boxes of Blue pyrenes
They would’ve spent more than otherwise is what I meant. People on low incomes are more likely to spend, because they have to. There is a certain minimum amount of spending that everyone needs to do to survive.
If there is a technical recession it will be a short and shallow one, thanks to Rudd and Swan, and NO thanks to the cheap populist opportunism of the Opposition. By election time all the indicators will be pointing north, Rudd and Swan will be smelling like roses, and whoever is Oppo Leader by then will smell like a dog that rolled in its own ordure. (Am I allowed to say ordure, William?)
What will be of note is how bad a recession we have then we can assess the stimpacs Gary…
Gary
There’s a word for what Glen’s feeling. It’s “schadenfreude”, which is “shameful joy” in German. He hasn’t had much to gloat about recently so we shouldn’t be too hard on him.
I wonder if the government is considering something like Germany’s policy. If you buy a new car and turn your old one in for scrap you get $2500. New car registrations were up 21% last month.
Someone was asking earlier whether the government would change their policy on the economy. Remember, they have a pretty big card still up their sleeves. Sometime this week Infrastructure Australia will announce which projects will receive the green light for $12.6 billion worth of government funding.
Lovely word, Adam.
Adam @ 639,
You have much in common with Edmund Burke.
“…it ought to be the happiness and glory of a representative to live in the strictest union, the closest correspondence, and the most unreserved communication with his constituents. Their wishes ought to have great weight with him; their opinion, high respect; their business, unremitted attention. It is his duty to sacrifice his repose, his pleasures, his satisfactions, to theirs; and above all, ever, and in all cases, to prefer their interest to his own. But his unbiassed opinion, his mature judgment, his enlightened conscience, he ought not to sacrifice to you, to any man, or to any set of men living. These he does not derive from your pleasure; no, nor from the law and the constitution. They are a trust from Providence, for the abuse of which he is deeply answerable. Your representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgment; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmund_Burke
I think Hokey will moonlight as opposition leader as a dry run for his tilt at state politics.
It’s even better than that, about AUD$5000. The catch is the car must be at least 9 years old, and you must’ve owned it for 1 year.
I used Schadenfreude last week on this blog for GP I think
What about Nathan Bracken, he’s good and experienced bowler, he should be given a go.
If you listen closely you may hear “Hip hip hooray!” emanating faintly from the Liberal Party bunker.
A Labor member a Burkophile? I think not.
I actually far prefer the U.S. politico model, whereby representatives sometime represent their constituent interests, sometimes their own interests, sometimes their state’s interests, sometimes their nation’s interests.
To me that makes far more sense than blindly following whatever your electors think. What if their ideas are nonsensical? Do you follow that nonsense to its potentially dangerous conclusions? I think not. Ultimately politicians should have their conscience to decide otherwise.
We are possibly going to play 2 left armers in the next test, I think 3 would be too many.
http://www.history.ucsb.edu/faculty/marcuse/classes/33d/33dWImages/HitlerPorscheVW1938.png
“Buy one now, mein Fuhrer, and I will give you $2500 for you old Mercedes tourer!”
I predict there will be doom and gloom from the pundits for Q1/09 GDP number. But the number will come out and show a GDP of +0.6%. Eggs on faces again.
You guys are crazy if you think we’d celebrate a recession!
But every other country is going through one so we must face it.
But we’ll be 200b dollars in debt in a couple of years, then we’ll be saying hip hip hooray!
At least you’re honest there. The recession we had to have! But in a better position than most.
You’re hoping the economy tanks and Rudd gets blamed for it. Don’t lie.
Just because the credit card has been extended to 200b, doesn’t mean we’ll get there.
Turnbull said “wait and see”. well now we see. I wonder what he would say we should do now?
- how about a subsidy on locally built luxury yachts? Anyone spending over $1 million on a floating palace gets 100% tax deductability if its locally made. Think of the employment it will generate. And if Malcolm and friends have to “buy one for the team” and swan around Sydney Harbour drinking Grange to help us out of a tough spot then they are just the sort of unselfish chaps to do it.
Of course, if we only had Workchoices still in place all our problems would be solved.
Bollinger is on injury watch as well. They have already sent Geeves. They also announced some young bloke from WA, Magofinn (Any relation Finn?)n the Shield this year.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/sport/cricket/siddle-hilfenhaus-in-doubt-for-second-test/2009/03/04/1235842449446.html
Clarke keeps having back spasms. recurrent injury apparently.
I understood the Treasury estimated when the package was released that:
around 30% of it would be saved, 30% would be spent in the first quarter of 2009,
another 30% would be spent in the second quarter of 2009, and only 10% would be spent in the run up to Christmas.
Now you can argue with their allocations and its reasoning, but you can’t judge its effectiveness until the full period of their projection has passed.
For Malcolm Turnbull to proclaim that the package was a failure because 80% has been saved is premature, and if as he says 20% was spent, then that’s ahead of the Treasury projections.
Too bad the libs weren’t in beacuse it could have been only $180 billion. C’mon Glen every die hard conservative in the country is smiling sadly enough.
1) That figure is NET debt. We already had nearly $60 billion of debt from Mr Costello 2) That figure amounts to 5.8% of GDP.
Which compares with Canada 20%, U.K. 50%, U.S. 55%, Japan 90%
Meet The Press, Channel 10, 8 February 2009
http://ten.com.au/media/MTP0802.doc
Interesting that today’s 0.5% growth decline defied the pundits’ expectations yet again. They got full time employment wrong, retail spending, private investment, housing and now the growth figures…. all wrong. One wonders whether we are listening (or not, as the case may be) to fools.
“Then please explain why the national savings rate is now the highest it has been in 20 years? Clearly people aren’t spending the handout to the extent the government would like.”
If you think about, savings is not an end in itself, just a means to the end. Savings is just a holding pattern for cash. If you don’t spend the cash, what do you do with it? Keep it in the bank – with interest rates the way they are, what’s the point? Put it in the stockmarket – ha ha! Pay off your debts earlier, and therefore save on interest? This last option increases your disposable income down the line, if not immediately.
lolololol!
And somehow the Libs think Costello can make a better policy…
To be fair, on Monday they thought it would be negative, but then yesterday the surprisingly good trade data was released, so they revised their expectation. What we got today was the Monday guestimate.
Bob1234,
Turnbull seemed embarrassed that the Liberals have a policy for 90% of the debt levels they are “criticising” the government for.
Well GP and Glen you better not vote Liberal in NSW
“NSW Opposition has called on the Rees Government to introduce an economic stimulus package”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25138240-1242,00.html
Tom.
Glen said:
Q – So, how much under your mob?
Before you answer I can tell you there’s a strong hint in in post 713
Now, who would blame Clarkey for having back spasms for having a fiancee friend like Lara Bingle. I’ll have the back spasms anytime.
http://blogs.smh.com.au/lifestyle/allmenareliars/LauraBingle.jpg
GG, nah. His fin is too short. We love big finn.
“Steve Magoffin is suddenly in line for his Test debut after chairman of selectors Andrew Hilditch announced the West Australian paceman would be flown to Durban “as a precautionary measure”.
Correct me if I am wrong, todays GDP figures were for the Dec qtr (Oct, Nov, Dec 2008).
Given that the first stimpac covered two weeks of this period, why would anyone think it had anything to do with the figures?
Surely it proves the Govt. were correct and that the economy needed a stimulus?
I think Turnbull is actually conducting dadaist performance art. He is seeing how long he can peddle incoherent nonsense in place of a policy agenda, before everyone starts laughing at him.
Kakuru,
Petrol prices down 50cents a litre, Interest rate drops of 4%, tax cuts in July and the hand out in December all put extra money in people’s pockets. Some of which they spent and some of which they saved.
Because they want to pretend that the figure is the direct result of government mismanagement of the economy.
There seems to be two ways to argue against this 1) no economy ever needs a stimulus package (call this part one of the G.P. argument) 2) our economy in particular didn’t need a stimulus package (call this part two of the G.P. argument).
Petrol was up 18% in Feb, it was the main reason inflation rose (very slightly).
But it isn’t a problem with the economy going backwards.
Shows On,
Petrol peaked at about $1.70 in Melbourne and was around $1.20 in December and January.
The first stimulus package had one goal – stimulate consumption.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/we-cant-swim-against-recession-tide-pm-20090304-8nzs.html
That’s it, the end.
Yes, but they seem to take every word that drops from his mealy mouth so seriously. Look at this headline dominating their ABC News site at the moment:
Cash splash didn’t work, says Turnbull
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507365.htm
Complete with picture of their golden boy.
GG @ 724
I think we’re in agreement. Even the cash that is ’saved’ must be used for something eventually. So when I here people are saving the cash from the stimpac, I see it as deferred disposable income.
It’s not until eight paragraphs into the story that the government’s side is put. Yeh, how “balanced” of their ABC.
La Bishop on the SAS “Pay Bungle” from the Post Newspaper (Her local rag)
Warning large pdf file – they no longer link to individual stories.
http://www.postnewspapers.com.au/20090228/20090228.pdf
Yeah, it was down by something like 20% in December as the oil price crashed, but the ABS surveys the average price around the entire country for the entire month, and has noted a sharp increase in Feb. Near me petrol has gone from around the high 90 CPL to $1.20 over the last month.
This is exactly the point Treasury repeated to Barnaby Joyce over and over; saving and paying off debt are simply deferred consumption. It means a person will have more money sometime later.
YAY! She has to revert to a local paper to try to keep the story going!
Says it all really.
Join the Club. Everybody joins somebody sometimes.
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/SE%2BAsia/Story/STIStory_345779.html
This seems to be the problem with Turnbull, he thinks you just do the same things with an economy at all times, and magically it will grow. He doesn’t seem to appreciate that different circumstances call for different policies.
I think I know where Malcolm got his three planting idea. Does he or bishop have any ideas of their own?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/tree-change-likely-for-aussie-farmland-20090304-8ock.html
The Ruddster channels PB. Perhaps he’s a fan.
Or maybe great minds think alike.
It’s a very long sentence. Not very punchy. I think a few bludgers put it better.
The only difference is, as Tony Burke revealed in Q.T. last week, Turnbull’s plan would require planting trees in some of the best farming land in the country.
Re 724,
We gave liberal amounts of the stimulus money to Dick Smith and JBHiFi
……
Although he does seem to be saying the two stimpacs made the the December quarter so strong compared to other countries, esp as the second stimpac hasn’t even started. Actually it’s a really terrible sentence the more you look at it.
Turnbull’s trouble is he thinks people are fools that don’t know what’s happening in the rest of the world. He pretends it is an A(ustralinn)FC and not a GFC and thinks he’ll be able to hoodwink all Aussies into believing him.
Australians are seeing how directly a global economic downturn can impact on Australia’s economy. This completely contradicts the standard Coalition argument that poor economic performance is always the fault of the ALP. The current economic scenario is disproving the standard Coalition party M.O. of claiming to be superior economic managers, it is showing that that claim is nonsense at the best of times.
Turnbull sprouted something along the lines of Labour having been given a good hand of cards by the Libs but they have severly mis-played them.
The hand his crew handed over was a good hand for Old Maid (during mining boom) but now it’s championship bridge that is being played courtesy of the GFC.
So he basically is trying to campaign on past record, instead of current policies.
I don’t think voters are going to buy his brand, when he is selling out of date goods.
Meanwhile in Europe…
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/ecb-heads-for-record-low-interest-rates-20090304-8od0.html
It was predictable wasn’t it. Frackin ABC….
Watch Red Kerry rips Mr. Lu Kewen apart tonite on 7:30 Reparte. Go Red Go.
News.com.au has a picture of Rudd, does that mean it is biased towards the Government?
What is Turnbull’s Chinese name? Ma-goh-ma Tu-nu-bu-leh?
It would if every time there was an issue it ran Rudd’s picture and POV in place of Turnbull’s.
But I don’t care if news.com are biased – I don’t fund them out of my taxation…
Their ABC still has the story Cash splash didn’t work, says Turnbull as the no 1 main headline on their news site.
At the time of my writing this it has been headlining the site for 3 hours, 55 minutes.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507365.htm
In a “related” story: “Swan defends stimulus as economy shrinks”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507190.htm
Note the use of language: Turnbull “says“; while Swan “defends“.
It doesn’t run Turnbull’s picture all the time, so I don’t know what your point is.
Mr. Tun Ma-ken
Frank at 732:
How do the Post treat Bishop? I remember last state election campaign, they were nicer to Colin Barnett and Sue Walker than the Noel Crichton-Browne faction. Western suburbs Libs are interesting… it’s like its own little ecosystem that has nothing to do with anywhere else. Kinda like the area really.
And below it it has Swan’s response from over 6 hours ago:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507190.htm
I have no idea how reporting both sides of the story is a sign of bias.
Red Kerry has been blown away by Mr. Lu’s cyclone
Malcolm Turnbull – Merchant Banker
That’s rhyming slang
The ABC on-line and Radio is quite distinctly bias toward the Liberal party or against the Labor govt and has been for some time. Doesn’t mean it is 100% spruiking the Liberals as that would be just blatant. But it is quite obvious and has been for some time. In my book it is simple fact. Others may see it differently. I don’t care really.
News Ltd is of course spruiking for the Liberals in a more obvious way in the hope of installing a totally incompetent and still far right dominated group so as to really ruin the economy and, put themselves out of business.
What happened on the 7.30 report
Thomas Paine, I think either Rudd was channelling some bludgers or the bludgers have pretty much worked it out. I thought he was good, both in terms of the economic stuff, and how he handled the politics.
Are you including NewsRadio in this assessment?
Thomas Paine 760
Kerry interviewed Kevin Rudd re the negative growth in the Dec qtr.
Kevin said that around the world developed economies were in recession and suffering much larger negative growth than here – apparently due to a cyclone buffeting them – the cyclone being the GFC. Kevin attributed Australia’s better than the rest result to the stimulus package in Dec. Kerry quoted the Liberal argument – by that I mean he reasonably presented the other side’s argument as he does.
There was a bit of toing and froing, then a pilot was interviewed. He was the first Australian to be invited to compete in that Red Bull acrobatic flying tour that has a race in Perth on the Swan River
BIAS!
Cuppa 752 cry me a river…
All Kerry was doing was destroying the fallacy Rudd has been trying to spread that the Libs would have done nothing to combat the GFC which is wrong we’d have had a stimulus package but we’d have had tax cuts.
Kerry got Rudd good there “with respect”…lol!
OK Glen, here is the Julie London version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByUOFV5TusE
Shows On, I wouldn’t include NewsRadio, but don’t know what TP thinks. Speaking for myself, I have been increasingly irritated by News Online and some other radio reporting. I was whinging earlier tonight to my bloke, that I will flick over to News Online from time to time during the day, especially during the fire disaster, and was struck by the sort of language being used, referred to by Cuppa, above. In my view, it’s persistent and insidious.
Good, nor would I. NewsRadio is perhaps the best source of news on Australian radio. It’s better than bloody talkback which is full of morons that don’t know what the hell they are going on about.
Iran condemns Obama’s Israel policy, thus confirming that it is appropriate:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25139146-23109,00.html
ABC articles are only biased if people care about Turnbull’s views, otherwise they are not, they are publishing fillers.
No Glen, the Libs voted for Rudd’s first stimulus package.
Second best, after Triple J news and Hack for current affairs.
We said all along we supported tax cuts as opposed to handouts Oz.
BTW you know your side is in Government when you start criticising the ABC on bias! lol!
Glen,
How do you “destroy a fallacy”? A fallacy does not exist. A bit like your argument really.
Abit like Rudd saying we’d do nothing in the GFC, he’s such a rube.
Well, Glen, let’s just see what the next polls say shall we? Have a look at what Political Sword has been writing. At least one of the things he’s observed is something I agree with, and that is that Rudd cuts through to the population. He communicates honesty, diligence, that he will take advice from those with expertise (though it’s got to be said, that’s rather mixed bag), and that he and his government are doing everything they can to sensibly address the effects on Australia. As many posters here have attempted to point out to you, Turnbull and the Libs. appear to have no consistent idea, are undisciplined, and internally riven by different voting bases with not a lot in common = not an effective opposition.
It’s a bit disingenuous for Rudd to say that Stimpac 1 caused the 4th quarter negative growth to only be 0.5%, which is much better than other countries. The Stimpac only came in for 2 weeks of the 13 week period. Basically, our economy wasn’t as crap/fragile as other economies going into the GFC.
You voted for handouts. End of story.
Nah Joe Cocker’s version is better
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMwXPueu-RM
How is it disingenuous? Retail numbers spiked in December when it had been feared to be one of the worst Christmas shopping periods in some time. Treasury estimates were that $1 billion of the stimpack would be spent then, and the figures appear to bear that out (see possums site for graphs). $1b is 0.1% of our $1t GDP, so there’s at least 0.1% that wouldn’t have otherwise been there…
FC @ 778 & Shows at 766
Am I showing my age (or lack of) if I prefer the JT version?
So why didn’t the opposition move amendments to provide tax cuts?
I agree that calling the ABC biased is silly, if it has any bias it is because it attacks the Government from the left (e.g. why won’t it do more on climate change or the Murray / Darling).
The opposition voted for nothing.
You must get a different abc.net than I do.
I like the ‘JT’ version too, but it is a totally different song.
I go to http://www.abc.net.au so maybe that’s the difference.
Dario
So you’re saying it would have been -0.6% without the stimpac, and was -0.5% with the stimpac.
That would mean to me that fundamentally the underlying economy was responsible for the result with a little flicker of 0.1% due to the stimpac. Most of Stimpac 1 will be seen in the March 09 quarter.
Therefore, I feel that saying the good result was due to Stimpac 1 was disingenuous. It was mainly due to our economy before Stimpac 1.
It was *announced* on 7 October, so its psychological effect lasted nearly the whole quarter. From that date people knew that we had a resolute government determined to do the right things to minimise the impact of the GFC. It’s all about confidence. As FDR said: “We have nothing to fear but Turnbull itself.”
I’m saying at least 0.1% was visible in the retail figures. Retail figures are not the only measure of the stimpack.
My we are snarky tonight!
I have no problems with the Q&A; I can handle Fran Kelly; think newsradio is great. But the abc website consistently put a favourable slant on Turnbull’s pronouncements.
Grog, cry me a river, Get Used to Attacking the ABC it is prime influence on the Govt supporters Inferiority complex…
Pretty sure they voted for the initial stimulus package.
I agree with TP and cuppa. ABC online consistently runs with opposition POV as headline, government response in 2nd half of the article. RN tends to do the same. Government announcements are held back until after the response, so the response leads the story. Opposition POV is often presented as fact. Terminology, as pointed out above, is also slanted – the opposition ’says’/government ‘defends’ is a mild example of this. It is getting very infuriating.
Agree with polyquats, TP and Cuppa, particularly what polyquats said.
I just went to http://www.abc.net.au and saw Turnbull’s ugly face telling me that the Cash Splash didn’t work. After that it redirected me to Malcolm Turnbull’s Facebook site.
I should add that I think he is also being disingenuous in saying that for the same reasons Rudd is wrong, although I accept Adam’s argument that the people of Australia were acting in the confidence that they had a brave economic visionary genius as PM, instead of the evil dullard Turnbull.
Yes maybe like the Libs we should build up a stupid dirt file to raise at senate estimates:
“In this interview with John Howard, Kerry O’Brien pointedly raised his eyebrow… and why did they refer to this as a terrorist act, rather than calling them terrorists? And why are my tax dollars spent on South Park”
Thank you no, I’lll leave such insanity to Fierriavanti-Wells and her clique.
His face isnt even there lefties God chillout.
You call putting a news story up on their front page is bias well what about whenever Rudds face is on it, i dont go round saying booohooo that is bias.
Toughen Up!
I think these opinions are biased.
Did you read Wayne Swan’s reply which is a link at the bottom of the Turnbull article?
I’m with Grog, polyquats, TP and cuppa and anyone else who is sick of going to ABC online and the first thing that hits you is a photo of their pin up boy Malcolm, oh except for last week when everyday your eyes were set upon by Joe with his mouth open catching flies.
They learned from Erica Betz and Nick Minchin during the Howard government years, ALWAYS say that the ABC is biased, if you say it often enough people will think it is true.
Glen, just bear in mind you may be in opposition for quite some time and the reporting by the MSM may also change, not necessarily to your advantage. Also bear in mind that the MSM have been chanting the end of the Rudd honeymoon since he became Leader of the then opposition. Hasn’t happened. He might be a socially conservative, anally retentive micro-manager to me, but it would seem that at least till now, the population thinks he and his govt are best placed to manage the affairs of state. Please check the results of the poll.
Geoff Gallop’s wife as died from cancer:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507640.htm?section=justin
Bev Gallop, Wife of former WA Premier Geoff Gallop hass died from Cancer
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507640.htm
Shows On:
Great Minds etc re Gallop’s Wife passing away.
This is what the media always does. They always say an opposition leader has a honeymoon period (which isn’t true, just ask Brendan Nelson), then latter say that period is over.
They are just run of the mill cliche arguments that they run when they don’t have anything substantial to say.
Is Rudd really that much of a social conservative?
She hasn’t really died, this is just a clear example of ABC bias.
Nope, the ABC article today suggesting the government is open to criticism on the second stimulus package because growth has gone negative – when the second package has not even been delivered – does it for me. ABC online is biased.
Sad news for the Gallop family, but I still disagree with you about how news is presented on the ABC online. Further, I have yet to understand why Stevan Mayne or two doyens of the advertising world both get speaking spots on local ABC radio weekly and one of them on a TV program, yet there is no perspective from say Choice or other people, such as John Quiggan.
a smart arse bad taste remark there don’t you think?
On the ABC bias issue.
I’d like to see it tested.
And not by the usual ‘balanced’ approach of this many articles/minutes whatever for them and this many for the other. The problem with that approach is it doesn’t analyse the use of words, such as ‘defends’ as an example given above.
I’ve thought of going to the ABC news site, the one cited previously, at a set time each day, say 30 mins before the prime time news slot, and simply noting the headlines of that time.
On the KISS [keep it simple stupid] principle.
And do so for several consecutive days and see if there is a trend, as suggested by those above, polyquats for one, of easily discernible negative/positive/neutral headlines over time.
Maybe someone may like to do the hard yards?
The thing that bugs me most about ABC online is their not indicating who quotes are from in their headlines.
e.g. Government ‘has failed’
not, Government ‘has failed’: Turnbull
It really shits me
I wonder if Gallop’s depression which led to him resigning was partly due to his wife’s condition.
Shows On @ 804, that’s really really low. My estimation of you has just gone down. You may not care, but you should. That comment should be withdrawn.
HSO if the ABC bias is sooo good for the Libs according to you why are we behind 60/40 so much good it supposedly does. Get real HSO and cry me a river!
You and others were telling me the same thing in 2007 when i blasted the ABC for bias and now it is my turn to tell you to get real and grow up!
I think it’s fair to say that people’s confidence declined rapidly during the fourth quarter. The whole show started to unravel on 15 September: from then till mid-October was one long freak show of hitherto unsuspected catastrophes striking huge financial institutions. People probably took most of the fourth quarter getting their brains around that, and then we had Christmas holidays. I doubt if the stimpac *announcement* made any difference at all, quite frankly.
However if anyone can dig up any of those business confidence surveys from the time I’d be curious.
Surely the soundest verdict on the fourth quarter is: it sucks, but it’s not the Government’s fault, and it sucks less than almost any other Western country. Stimpac 1 (ie the actual money) was too late to make much difference.
But different news stories break on different days, so you’d expect them to respond to that.
Read the article and find out.
And it wasn’t big enough, hence the need for the second package.
Yep me too. Which is why I am not against so much the content of the articles on the website; just that the slant is more often than not pro Turnbull.
To be honest I don’t think it is pro Lib; just that MT could fart and the ABC website would give it a headline suggesting it a sign of economic genius.
SNIP: Comment deleted to spare commenter embarrassment he appears not to realise he’s inflicting upon himself – The Management.
Without it though I would doubt that we would have seen such good retail figures for December and January, or an addition of 1,200 overall jobs to the economy in January.
That’s not the point and you know it
The point is that you actually need to read articles to determine the information they contain. Deciding on the thrust of an argument simply from a headline is silly.
dyno
Please stop agreeing with me. I’m gonna get hammered about being a neocon again.
Shows On,
In our precious Democracy everyone has the right to be a dickhead. You seem to be exercising your right very well.
I must say a lot of today’s media coverage (on the net, anyway) was egregiously mindless. The whole attitude of “why hasn’t Rudd stopped this happening” was just pathetic. What else should he stop happening? Tension in the Middle East? Australia losing at cricket? Bad breath amongst garlic eaters?
I don’t attribute this to media bias especially. I attribute it to (1) the endless need for “sensational” copy (2) a desire to make the political “game” interesting (ie a closer contest than it currently is) and (3) the fact that the average journalist’s brain is smaller than that of a small marsupial.
I am getting middle-aged, and grumpier.
Glen, the thing you are not grasping about my complaint is that a supposedly independent national broadcaster should report in as neutral a fashion as is possible about politics specifically. My concern is that any government can cement itself in too well, by subtle and not so subtle manipulation, of the organisations available to it. You would not disagree, would you, that appointing such people as Janet Albrechtson and Keith Windschuttle, were not mainstream appointments?
You seem not to understand that such a drift can go in the other direction, with equally disastrous results.
I don’t like extremism of any sort, Glen.
Most discussion of economic matters is, because the average person and journalist doesn’t actually know much about economics.
You speak a lot of sense there…
Though I’ll give journos some credit for intelligence, but I do think most of them write very lazy copy.
Ah, Diogenes, but I’m not a neo-con.
I’m small-l liberal (or more specifically wet Liberal) on some issues, and traditionally conservative on others.
I agree that 2008 Q4 is not the real test, because the real, as opposed to psychological, effect of stimpac1 is being felt only now, and stimpac2 will have its impact in 2009 Q3 and Q4. So we may well have another small negative in 2009 Q1 (thus a technical recession), but things will bottom in Q2 and get back into positive territory in Q3, just in time for the election. Devilish cunning, what? You read it here first.
Possum is a marsupial and his brain size seems to be more than adequate for most occaissions.
Perhaps he’s not a small marsupial.
Anyway, journalists have smaller brains than he does!
And it does, it is far more neutral than all the commercial media sources which seem to be full of people running their own agendas. Your belief that the ABC is biased simply reveals your bias. But you don’t seem to consider that.
That is why we have democratic elections. At any rate, the idea that THE MEDIA is somehow manipulating our minds is just a silly argument. It is really an argument that people are stupid and can’t discriminate between facts and opinions.
Now, I don’t understand why on the one hand you think the media is manipulative, but on other hand feel that YOU can see how it is being manipulative. If you can tell the media is manipulative, than that means it couldn’t possibly do a very good job of manipulating people.
Or are you saying that you are just a lot smarter than other people?
And these hacks have accomplished bugger all, because the culture of the ABC seems to resist all change from the board and from any government. Donald McDonald accomplished nothing in the time he led the ABC board.
Shhhh AiC, you’ll give the game away!!
About the response I expected from you, Shows On. You may not care about the effect of your behaviour on others, but others will, and you may not care for being slapped down for such insensitive statements.
That’s the Labor plan. That would be a very good outcome for Australia, notwithstanding that it means three more years of Captain Kev.
I actually think the economic reality is going to be a lot messier, though. And Captain Kev will win easily in 2010 anyway, because he’s done a reasonable job in a number of areas so far, and the Libs won’t have their act together to exploit the chinks in his armour.
SNIP: Stupid comment deleted – The Management.
HSO @ 833. You say it so eloquently. My 822 was put into moderation.
No, the point is that the ABC is not supposed to be biased, so it’s headlines should not be ambiguous or leading. It isn’t a commercial news website whose aim is to suck people in to get hits. Headlines that consist of statements made by people should have the attributed person accompanying them.
I still don’t think we will go to an election next year. I think we will go Q1 next year, as they say in economics.
I mean if we start growing latter this year, then early next year would be even better because all the building projects will start to kick in.
Actually I’m getting my years mixed up (it’s been a long day). This is this year, and the election is next year, unless Turnbull is mad enough to give us a DD this year.
Headlines are often ambiguous because the writer is trying to cram disparate ideas into short snappy sentences:
http://www.abc.net.au/contact/complain.htm
My guess is they’ll respond saying they often don’t have enough room, but if you just read the article…
Turnbull is not mad enough to do that, if the party was solidly behind him.
It’s conceivable he could do it though, as a way of putting the Liberals on a “war footing” and stopping people undermining him. As Sir Humphrey would say, it would be a courageous decision.
ShowsOn, if that article today had also mentioned that the government could counter argue that entering negative growth emphasises the need for economic priming, they would not have opened themselves to claims of bias. But they didn’t. They claimed the government is open to criticism on the stimulation packages because the dec qtr revealed negative growth. And that was it as far as commentry/opinion went.They didn’t even add that the second package has yet to be delivered.They are biased.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25135041-5000117,00.html
Cadres praise generous, wise, beloved Dear Leader Gillard
What a waste of money and a bunch of chest thumping left wing clap trap from Gillard as usual, wanting any and every building built from Govt funding to have her name on it.
Typical!
“Every school will get BER money, and Gillard’s document warns that in exchange they “must hold recognition ceremonies as part of their conditions of funding”. Must.”
“A H, yes, Gillard is protective of her plaques, almost 10,000 of which — “made from metal or other suitable material” — are about to go up in her honour in every school of the land to mark every project she’s funded.”
I reckon Malcolm will be thinking about what the legacy will be from his Parliamentary career. I suspect a good outcome on Climate Change Policy might be his only chance to have a meaningful result.
My alltime favourite
“British push bottles up Germans”
Did you click the link at the bottom to the Wayne Swan interview explaining just that?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507190.htm
You can’t expect every article to represent every side of every argument. You write one article explaining what one side has to say, then you link the a related article with a response. I can’t see what is wrong with that.
The government is open to criticism about anything and everything, it doesn’t necessarily make it true.
lol Glen as soon as I saw Bolt’s name at the top of that article i went no further
That’s no excuse for the ABC, who as a government funded media organisation should not be showing bias in its news reporting
Again, no excuse
“Plane Too Close to Ground, Crash Probe Told”
“British left waffles on Falklands” (I remember that one)
I do not think the economic outlook will be sorted by the next election. This will get worse.
Our debt levels are very high and this will wreck growth. Early 2011 is my timeframe for a turnaround and a very modest figure at that if before than growth will only be about zero to one percent per year. It will take a while for significant growth to reoccur.
However i think Rudd will win the next election, because the Libs are in a mess and Turnbull who i thought had a chance up to late last night has in recent months lost all credulbility. The libs in my view will be out of government for possibly two more terms.
The only threat for Kevin is that Bus the Sri Lankan cricketers were in.
Adam,
The one I always liked was a story about fish eating contest in Northern Scotland where a participant lost a molar and the eventual winner had a tummy bug.
The headline read:
One tooth free for Fyffe, sick Sven ate nine tench.
Sorry meant last year not last night.
dyno
I know you are not a neocon. But don’t let anyone know I said that.
don’t give up yr dayjob, GG
Debt repayments are at a 20 year high.
shops yesterday, headlines today. Any guesses for the bee in Show’s bonnet tomorrow?
The Kerry O’Keefe Joke:
My issue was with Government owned shops, which I considered completely pointless. Get it right.
O.K. thank you Shows On for responding. I’ll have to be a bit tedious here as I’ve not learned how to do the encapsulated bits you want to respond to. So.
I agree that the ABC is less awful than the commercials, but that is setting a low standard indeed. Of course my perception of things such as reporting and opinion pieces, will be coloured by my own take on things. I’ve no idea why you would make such an obvious observation.
I’m not sure how much you know about the rise of Hitler’s Germany, and how much public propaganda played a part in both the formation of the Reichstag and the propagation of the war. So I won’t insult you on this score, however, this is nuanced territory, i.e., not black or white, and the role of media is not to be underestimated. Leni Reifenstal and the 1939 Olympics, ring a bell?
It’s hardly about me saying I’m smarter than other people. I’m reporting my reaction to the reporting, as are others, like Cuppa and Tp and Vera. Why are our reactions invalid?
Glen
I read that article. Gillard reminded me of Howard. A lot.
dear me
I’ll tell the “frog and vicar” story if you’re not careful
A couple of years ago The Age had “Flying Squad to Tackle Bird Flu”. I liked that.
I think there is a huge difference between propaganda and bias. To me something is propaganda when there is a single message, and no ability of people to find alternate views. For example, if there is only one media outlet, one news paper company, no access to alternate media. Nazi propaganda was extremely effective because the state successfully shut off alternative view points, or at least drove them completely underground.
I think that is a completely different scenario to Australia that enjoys a free press, and strong democratic institution.
Malcolm Turnbull will say biased things, and the media will quote what he says. Yet I still get to hear the Government’s side of the story. Or I can go on the internet and read up on what he says, and determine if I agree or disagree with it.
A headline in a local Scottish paper after the Titanic sank: “Aberdeen man drowned”.
Some of the headlines yesterday of the ilk of “Aussie umpires unhurt” reminded me a bit of that.
Yes, I found those headlines more worrying, because it almost implies that the 8 dead Pakistan’s (including police officers and a cab driver) don’t matter as much.
Adam,
I don’t know that one, but the following is an allegedly true story.
A famous Poll Bludger meister was crossing a road one day when a frog called out to him and said, “If you kiss me, I’ll turn into a beautiful princess”. He bent over, picked up the frog and put it in his pocket. The frog spoke up again and said, “If you kiss me and turn me back into a beautiful princess, I will stay with you for one week”. The Poll meister took the frog out of his pocket, smiled at it and returned it to the pocket. The frog then cried out, “If you kiss me and turn me back into a princess, I’ll stay with you and do ANYTHING you want.” Again the poll meister took the frog out, smiled at it and put it back into his pocket. Finally, the frog asked, “What is the matter? I’ve told you I’m a beautiful princess, that I’ll stay with you and do anything you want. Why won’t you kiss me?” The poll meister said, “Look I’m a poll meister. I don’t have time for a girlfriend, but a talking frog, now that’s cool.”
My favourite headline was about a South Sydney Rugby League player named Robbie Burn. His contract was up but Souths hadn’t re-signed him by the time the contract had expired. So Robbie went to other clubs looking for a start. The headline (I think it was in the old Daily Mirror) was:
It’s about as perfect a header as I’ve ever seen.
The ABC’s not biased. Labor supporters really need to harden up if they reckon it is.
Blimey, 90% of the Liberals I know reckon it’s biased the other way. And can quote just as many examples as we see on PB.
Govts get criticised when things don’t go quite right, or when people don’t get what they want. The press is vapid (and the Australian may well be biased, I don’t know as I don’t read it). But the ABC a hotbed of right-wing propaganda? Give me a break!
Debt repayments may be at high levels, but when people start losing their jobs such repayments will slow and so to will growth and taxes going into government coffers. And besides many people in this country have significant loans some 10 to 20 years which far outstrip one to two months of repayments. Saving as i mentioned last night is what are doing and not spending. And people are doing it because they fear further problems ahead, therefore in essence people by not spending are causing further problems. Therefore providing money to people as i have said before is the wrong policy. Best to create jobs.
Government jobs because giving people security of employment will help to ease peoples’ minds and create spending.
The American economy although not one of our major trading partners will have a big affect on our economy and American growth will not come on board for quite a while because many people in America are on fixed interest rates and this is slowing growth significantly domestically their. This will have an impact on us.
Is Showson an escapee from the G Island?
Not all of us are arguing this.
ABC online editor has admitted the comment was not appropriate so I withdraw my claim of bias.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/04/2507011.htm
Point taken – my expression was clumsy (please don’t take it as proof of bias, it’s just my brain is smaller than Possum’s).
True, but once they lose their jobs they will get New Start payments, so the government automatically starts spending more.
That may be so for the first stimulus package, but remember the second one is for people earning up to $100,000.
Giving people money does create jobs.
No, I never went there.
dyno gets it, Shows on, dunno why you don’t.
from the same person who wasn’t too worried about writing this
Good on them for making the amendment.
Another way there article can’t be considered propaganda (even if it is biased) is the fact their articles are open to comment. So that lets people directly critique what is written there.
?
Dyno agrees with me, that the ABC isn’t biased.
HSO,
Sounds like the fire situation has eased considerably?
Pakistan detains 2 dozen people over the terrorist attacks on cricketers
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25140488-29277,00.html
G’day ye all.
It’s been a long time.
Hope your all well.
Lol, my password still works
Good to see that you have Gough in a suit now William.
G’day John.
I hope you’re still a Liberal, we are (as always) dramatically outnumbered here!
In 1994, the Pretoria News, in the runup to the first universal suffrage elections, published an article about the Democracy Education Broadcasting Initiative under the headline “DEBI Does Ballots”.
The greatest headline of all, however, was tracked down by Private Eye:
“Sailor clings to buoy for 17 hours”
Oh for goodness sake, Shows On, let me spell it out for you. To use some one’s death, in this case, Bev Gallop’s, as an example to support your argument, supposedly satirical, for no ABC bias, is crass. Using some one’s death for your own purposes is not acceptable. Do you understand?
Dyno’s argument is different, if you haven’t figured this out yet.
G’day Dyno
Yep still a Liberal.
True we need a few more here, lol.
Are we allowed to mention Andrew Bolt’s name yet or is that still banned?
The ABC may not be biased but the Coalition Government has tried very hard to make it into a station which looks after its interests and the interests of the right wing lobby.
It firstly stacked the board with right wing people, got rid of the staff appointee to the board and tried very hard to ditch shows like Media Watch, make shows such as Lateline and Four Corners to reduce thorough researched programs.
It also like the previous Labor Government reduced funding significantly, basically making the ABC buy more outsourced programs and reduce costs and staff.
This also resulted in fewer dramas and home grown programming.
Also governments repeatedly have appointed manager directors who were political appartchiks of both parties, David Hill, Brian Johns both from the New South Wales Catholic right, Donald McDonald, Johnanthan Shier and Mark Scott all Liberal mates.
This alone reduces political independence.
By the way another Lateline Liberal, another night another Liberal. Someone tell me when a Labor person was last on during the week other than Friday?
Finns,
Maybe if we sentenced him to a week, no a month, on GI then he’d learn the meaning of gratuitous comment and self indulgent fawning.
JOM
go back a few posts and you’ll find a link to a Bolt article from Glen.
The Liberals just can’t maintain a consistent attack on the government. After complaining that rudd has done too much to cushion Australia against the GFC Hockey is now accusing Rudd of giving up. What a joke they are.
It wasn’t support for my argument at all. Do you understand?
Do we have anyone who posts on GI as well? Diogenes?
Is that including the watchers?
Thanks, dyno, for asking. It’s been weird today, cold and with light rain. We’re sending interstate folk home, and standing crews back to let the major fires burn out hopefully. Probably most of Victoria is very tired and hopefully we’ll have some time to recover.
Thanks Vera.
ABC definitely biased!
GB agree Libs can’t maintian consistent attack. In a few more months I think that will change as the situation changes.
They should get Peter Costello and Joe Hockey on the same episode of Lateline. That would give Rudd a good shiver!
No, Shows On. I do not.
New Start payments are reduced incomes Shows on and many may not get it because some people may be working one or two hours in a fortnight.
What the government is putting into the economy is chicken feed compared to what will be coming out. The stimulus packages, handing money to people is stupid policy and it will not work simple.
Welcome back JOM,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ry4iwzS4Na0
Bree, they should get Costello and Hockey on Philip Adams’ Latenight show, lol.
I agree, but I think it completely failed. What exactly does it do now that it didn’t do ten years ago?
Sure, but it is still there, doesn’t that say something? The culture of the ABC outlives the tenure of its board members and governments.
This could be a Labor ploy as well, Rudd spends more time being interviewed on commercial networks than the ABC.
Can we please not start this.
They gave me a shorter and wider header to work with, so the vertical T-shirt shot had to go (alas).
Thank you GG.
Loved your you tube link. Here’s another one for you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSpnneXeDKY
Good grief, the invasion has commenced.
William, what is GI?
Hockey looks better on Lateline when he’s in the Canberra studio rather than live.
For which side?
HSO my in law returned home today from his second stint firefighting in Vic with SA National Parks.Raved about the support provided by the local communities and especially the food. He’ll do anything for a good feed that bugger so many thanks to Victoria on his behalf.
Chris Richardson believes that things will not get worse, I wonder. If people start losing their jobs significantly Chris will they be able to afford their rents. If people stop renting what affect will this have on people who have negative geared propherty. Question what will come first food or a roof. It may yet get very ugly.
Fabulous fashion statement, Bree
What HSO said.
Leigh Sales is totally ripping Hockey HAHA. Call this biased, why don’t you.
Shadow Foreign Minister Rudd use to appear alot on Lateline in 2006, when he was attacking Howard and Downer over the AWB wheat scandal.
HSO, let’s just say it’s an in-joke that’s better left “in”.
Wow, ABC1 is playing a great Nicholas Ray film Born to Be Bad at 1:12 AM tomorrow morning.
Shows On,
IMHO for Labor.
There is a bit of bias on TV but on radio lets just say wow, whee!
I was listening to PM in the car one night and the presenter made the Libs look like fools by comparing their economic strategy to that of voo doo economics and even included voice from Ferris Buellers Day Off, which by the by is an awesome movie.
JOM,
LOL. Kids have already commandeered for high rotation.
Cheers.
PAAPTSEF, our eternal thanks to your son in law for helping us. I don’t think we would have got through this without help from people like your son in law. I’m assuming son in law of course, but tell him none of us will forget what people have done to help here.
Harry baby,
This is GI: http://www.georgehernandez.com/h/aaBlog/2005/media/09-06_Gilligan.jpg
The one on the right is showy.
and my amigo GG is the one in the middle, btw he is just visiting.
A Musical Clue
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rELOFvy81CI
Leigh really hates Joe. Joe’s getting a bit sweaty.
LEAVE LEIGH ALONE.
SHAME JOE SHAME.
Most people here are arguing it is biased for the Liberals!
I think it is pretty neutral myself. When it is biased it is biased in favour of positions further to the left than Labor.
Oh yeah, the Laffer curve. I thought that was funny. The Laffer curve is a complete joke after all.
Hockey should become deputy Liberal leader. Maybe he will get his chance when Costello becomes leader.
So their was no bias involved when the ABC publishing decided to not go ahead and publish Chris Masters book about Alan Jones.
Hahha hahh aha hhah hah ah WTF!?
Finns,
I always wondered why Ginger was called Ginger.
Good grief Waffle Joe was awful. The number of times Leigh tripped him up with basic stuff. Back to the drawing board methinks.
The worst talkback radio station has to be 2UE.
Turned out to be a good decision, that book sold bugger all copies.
Chris Masters is an awful journalist.
Incorrect, the book was a best seller.
Lateline interviewing an Irish woman who lost her job in their recession and tells that she and her husband can’t sell her and house because she would still owe the bank a third of the cost of the house… then they reveal that she also owns two investment properties. Hello??? Are we supposed to feel sorry for her? If you over extend…
Compare Rudd on 7:30 to Hockey on Lateline.
Any idiots attempting to elevate Hockey to the leadership should shut up.
It was remaindered at my local Angus & Roberston
Oz,
And, this is news?
dyno
Nup. Haven’t even looked at it since Obama won. I still wish them well. They were a nice bunch of people.
I think Hockey would make an excellent deputy leader under Costello’s leadership.
Yes Bree
‘The Moonlight State’ was a pedestrian investigation into boring Corruption in dull Queensland that was not nationally and historically significant at all.
Oh, and French Connections was a boring report on who bombed a non important ship called rainbow warrior or something which exposed the unimportant French secrect service.
Jonestown was such a poor book Alan Jones had unleash lots of lawyers and scared the ABC. Obviously the book was all lies. If it was true, Alan would not of sued of course.
Chris Masters. Pathetic.
1 + 1 = 3, Bree, you are an idiot.
Keep at em Bree