The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face survey of 883 voters shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 60.5-39.5 to 57-43. Labor’s primary vote is down two points to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition’s is up substantially from 34.5 per cent to 39 per cent, and the Greens are down two to 6 per cent. Between Morgan, Newspoll and Essential Research, there is now significant evidence that some of the gloss has come off the extraordinary spike Labor enjoyed from its response to the global financial crisis.
Elsewhere:
• The Geelong Advertiser reports on the federal Liberal preselection for Corangamite. Prospective nominees: former Kennett government minister Ian Smith, “considering his position”; Graham Harris, head of the party’s Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Moriac district resident” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer Stewart McArthur who lost the seat in 2007.
• Mark Kenny of The Advertiser reports that “pressure is mounting inside the Liberal Party to dump its candidate for the state seat of Newland, Trish Draper”. Draper was federal member for Makin from 1996 to 2007, when she forestalled what seemed to be very likely defeat by retiring. Draper is seen to have been damaged by reports an ex-boyfriend has been identified as a suspect in a murder investigation, which is currently the subject of a defamation case. A Liberal source quoted by Kenny says Right faction powerbroker Senator Nick Minchin has told Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith to dump her.
• The ABC reports “speculation” that Premier David Bartlett is “planning to visit Tasmania’s Governor on Monday and send Tasmania to the polls as early as April 18”, resulting from the government’s failure to table long-promised legislation to enact fixed four-year terms. Bartlett denies this, and he would have to be pretty silly to ignore the still-accumulating evidence that unnecessary early elections are a bad idea.
• The ABC reports that Labor is courting Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb as a possible state election candidate for Bass.
• An interim report by the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters recommends an end to trials of electronic voting for the vision-impaired and overseas defence personnel on the grounds it is too expensive. The report said the 850 votes cast electronically in 2007 cost $2597 each, compared with $8.36 for each non-electronic vote. A dissenting report by Bob Brown argues the government should pursue electronic voting to assist disadvantaged voters, and investigate its use in the Australian Capital Territory and overseas.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published papers on women parliamentarians in Australia and the possibility of dedicated indigenous representation, a la the Maori seats in New Zealand.
556 Comments
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I don’t recall the Greens winning government.
How can you have a mandate for an ETS with no targets and no mechanism? That’s not a policy. Rudd went into the election with policy of addressing CC which was the “most important moral dilemma of our time”. That’s what he has a mandate for, not to replicate what Howard would have done. He’s rolled over and having his tummy tickled by the carbon lobby.
Yes but the Greens won a certain number of seats/votes within the Parliament and have a responsibility to those who gave them those seats/votes.
Cuppa, Labor have a great deal of arguments to come back at Turbull’s silliness.
1. Like you (cuppa) said the $1.6B whole in budget because they failed to vote for alcopops tax.
2. Global Recession. What part of GLOBAL Recession don’t you (MT) understand.
3. If people were being sacked under WC in boom times, what makes you think that businesses wouldn’t do it in a Recession.
4. The Libs are all over the place, first they were behind the stimulus, then Bishop came out and said wait and see, then Turnbull was against the stimulus, siteing the Repugs arguments of leaving our children with debt, then Turnbull came out and said he would have a stimulus plan with $20b, with a second stimulus down the track, WITH permanent tax cuts (Putting a extra burden on the budget) to the value of over $180b.
so on and so on
Dogma, it’s more than silliness to call it a “Rudd Recession”. It’s fundamentally dishonest, as everyone on earth practically knows it’s a worldwide thing. I’m coming to the regrettable conclusion that mendacity and the Liberal Party are like hand-in-glove.
Interesting comments by NSW police defending their response time to the brawl and murder at Sydney airport yesterday. There were 14 officers on duty at the airport at the time. The first responded about 4 minutes after the attack. International security protocols demand about 45 second response. Apparently they have now doubled the size of the police (bikie) gang squad from 75 to 150. I wonder which section they transferred those 75 police from – airport security?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/gang-squad-doubled-after-15-minutes-of-airport-mayhem-20090323-96ed.html?page=-1
They should be embarrassed, not alarmed.
I suppose at least this proves we don’t really have a terrorist problem in Australia. If we did, they could attack and safely leave the scene in taxis.
Seriously, why do we all bother going through interminable security checks if they can’t stop someone getting beaten to death at the front door? They are too busy collecting revenue from fining people who park and overstay.
Diog
personally, I’d be overjoyed if the Greens negotiated a better package on ETS.
I tend to think that the ALP is counting on that happening (mainly because I prefer to think that Wong is clever rather than stupid) – then they can tell business that they tried, but couldn’t get the smaller target.
Indeed she did. Gillard also had the option of going with what the Senate dished up and then wait to win the next election with a better Senate and then change to what they wanted. She also had the option of resubmitting the legislation in 3 months time with the added threat of a DD. And it would be a valid trigger and one they could win an election on.
As for the ETS the Govt could go for a higher target now but that is guaranteed to fail the Senate and so it is pointless, even the 5-15% range will have trouble getting past both independents. A higher target ETS will probably not pass the Senate now or in the future and would likely give the Opposition the better ‘fear’ ground to argue on if they used it as a DD trigger, in fact the Liberals would be praying for such a scenario as their best chance at being elected.
The only way the govt is going to get an ETS in this term is if they go with the lower target with range. It has presented the best possible bill that is likely to get through but also allows for an increase to 15%. And as much as every one will hate it, in the midst of a deepening recession a lot of people are going to stop caring about it and be more concerned with keeping their job safe. That is the way it is.
People want the govt to fall on its sword for what reason? So the liberals can manipulate the whole process as a means to helping mates make billions in a nuclear industry but also sidelining any sort of CPRS, as we know the skeptics still dominate the party.
zoomster
Wong is reputed to be clever in SA. The rumour is she was rolled in Cabinet but didn’t push her case very hard. Who knows what the truth is? In the end, she is the Minister responsible so she wears the consequences if it all goes pear-shaped.
I’m going to be interested to see if she tries to get the ETS through via the Green/X/FF route or the Turnbull route. Both look frought with problems.
I also think the subsidising the renewable industries and hybrid cars and so forth are still a great idea even if they in themselves don’t actually do much good. What it does do is change a mind set, way of thinking. It reeducates people and their habits. If renewables become part of everyday life in everyday things then they will become better and more efficient and actually do what they are meant to better.
TP
Of course, Labor could have a political and scientific visionary genius like Turnbull develop their CC strategy. Then they would have a much higher carbon reduction target AND create new jobs AND keep everyone happy. His policy is going to do all those things but it’s so clever he won’t tell us what is in it. Perhaps he is putting a patent on it so he wins the next Nobel Prize.
Diogenes, are you suffering saddle soreness?
You do get that, trying to sit on both sides of the fence at once.
Fulvio
On the ETS, I’m probably closest to the Greens (although I don’t think a 40% reduction is sensible if you refuse to consider nuclear). Neither of the major parties are worth supporting on this issue. I’m sitting in a corner with the scientists. We’re pretty lonely.
Ah, I see, your discomfort arises out of adopting a variant of the Green’s position, a stylitistic stance which carries with it it’s own sedentary issues ….
Before the election I was against Nuclear, but after reading more about nuclear and because of CC and the GFC, I think that building nuclear stations would be one way to produce less emissions as well as build a new industry. This would create more jobs for the maintenance and running, not to mention the jobs it would produce in the construction of the stations. Just one thing, I don’t want one in cooee of my home. If they can build them outside of suburban areas, and also use new technology, and have less waste. Then I’m for it.
Like Bob Dylan ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C339On5ie24
Dear me, I come back after three days away and the first thing I see is a DOUBLE apostrophe catastrophe.
And nor does anyone else, which is one good reason why no nuclear power stations will be built so long as Australia remains a democracy. The lead times are in any case too long for nuclear to be of any help to us in the current emergency. It’s either coal or renewables, folks, and if renewables can’t generate enough power in the necessary time-frame, then we’ll just have to use less of it.
#448 GB
He gave the impression on Insiders yesterday that he’s going to blame Fair Work for every job loss, but every time he does he’ll be implying that working conditions and job security need to be wound back. Hasn’t he figured out how Gillard will respond to that?
Given Malcolm’s variant of the Bolt theme – name just one job that has been saved by the stimulus package – can’t we ask him to (i) name the job/s that he’s saved through his amendments and (ii) specify which particular job was lost because of the rest of the package?
Shouldn’t be hard, not for a man with his ego – whoops, I meant ‘intellect’.
[And nor does anyone else, which is one good reason why no nuclear power stations will be built so long as Australia remains a democracy. The lead times are in any case too long for nuclear to be of any help to us in the current emergency].
I’m a glass half full kind of person. If it would take 10yrs to build and start running, then I still think that it would be important to CC. It would also cut the use of coalmining for Australia’s electricity, but be replaced with Uranium mining which boost the mining sectors jobs, which could be offset by the trading scheme. With the proximity to suburbs, surely they can find or buy out land that is fairly isolated in which to build these stations. Shrug, you never say never.
I think it would take nearer 20 years – there would be years of litigation.
dogma
Ziggy said it was more like 15 years. Politically it would take at least 5 years unless things go really sour on the global warming front. I really can’t see how Rudd is going to reach the 60% reduction by 2050 he signed up to in Kyoto if we only reduce by 5% in 2020 and he refuses to consider nuclear. He’s not putting enough into renewables to get anywhere near that reduction and if “clean coal” flops, we aren’t even close.
Consider my hand well slapped, Adam.
This weeks Rove “Kevin Rudd PM” is good for a giggle
Just click on Kevin Rudd PM in the right hand column and Eps 6 should start
warning nude Ruddy photo
http://www.rovedaily.com.au/video.htm
Want to read more?
http://www.crikey.com.au/Media-Arts-and-Sports/20090323-The-truth-about-Hanson-and-the-Sunday-Tele-Apologetic-Not.html
There is no doubt in my mind that the editor had no care at all about the degree of ‘truth’ when they went to town. I was all about sensationalism with the aim of sell papers. A better story (if a story had to be published on the subject of the photos at all) would have been the fact that there was a person who was trying to sell fake photos of Hanson and the PMs wife.
I’m very pleased that Hanson failed in her latest bid to reenter the world of politics but I hope she is successful in suing the Sunday Telegraph out of existence.
I think Hanson arranged the whole thing herself as a publicity stunt.
If she doesn’t sue then it really is the only conclusion.
Adam, Where is the smiley?
Steve K
I don’t think she’ll get much in damages for a few reasons. One is the poll that showed 90% of people didn’t care if it was her or not. Secondly, she still managed a respectable 22% of the vote. Thirdly, she hasn’t suffered much of a permanent loss as no-one believes it was her now. It’s different to saying politician X is a crook and watches kiddie porn when the mud will stick a bit more.
Her best shot would be if she can demonstrate that she would have won the election if it weren’t for the photos. Then she could demonstrate a possible lifetime loss of income which would be VERY expensive.
I expect the punitive damages will be pretty high though, given the appalling standard of responsibility shown by the Tele.
Is there a Newspoll due out tonight?
Nope if your read the crikey article it’s pretty clear Pauline has a good chance of doing very well out of this.
How could anyone damage Hanson’s reputation? It is in the gutter as is.
Diogenes, in the assessment of legal damages opinion polls and such would be largely irrelevant. I’d personally be surprised if she didn’t win substantial damages.
And they would take into account any income from her appearance on dancing with The Stars, Book sales and any income from her electoral payments in determining what damages are paid.
Forget the election, this about personal humiliation. With Littlemore on her side she’ll make a packet.
Australian Story did story on Jamie Fawcett who was the paparazzi link in this. Something about Nicole Kidman. The guy lived in the gutter and looked up at the stars. Even the other paparazzi didn’t have a nice word to say for him.
lol Oh I sorry but you’ve got to read this
The model portrayed as Pauline Hanson in a bogus newspaper expose possibly appeared in a Danish adult magazine 27 years ago, the Australian Sex Party claims.
The party says the Eros Foundation has released photos of the woman who could be the Pauline Hanson lookalike, and who starred alongside the world famous black adult actor – known as Long Dong Silver – in a 1982 adult magazine.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/hanson-lookalike-in-sex-mag-27-years-ago-20090323-96yv.html
Long Dong Silver LOL
Pretty close, but no cigar I think.
http://www.sexparty.org.au/index.php/press-releases/145-sex-party-finds-possible-source-of-hanson-lookalike-photos
OK, confess. How many of you googled Mr. Silver?
That’s not a cigar – that’s a garden hose!
Newspoll tonight?
Theoretically yes as the last poll came out a fortnight ago. But they skip a week every now and then.
Just thinking about Qld and the impact of the first elected female premier.
Does that mean flo’s scones had a secret ingredient???
Given no parliament for 6 weeks, there probably isn’t much point in a newspoll this week…
Gotta say, 20 years ago, QLD would’ve been long odds to be the first.
Grog
yeah
thats why I am still a bit confounded in a way
I thought vic or nsw would have had the honour
Gary Bruce @ 443
You seem to be implying that out of some personal spite or disappointment that I am spitting the dummy on the 5% ETS and going for a ‘ so let’s do nothing then’ line.
Not at all. You would know pretty well that I have a strong interest in Australia doing something very positive about global warming because I think it is the single most important issue facing us. It is, for example, far more important than the Global Financial Crisis. I also believe that Rudd was elected, inter alia, because people thought that unlike Howard, he would do something strongly positive about Global Warming.
A defeat of the dud 5% ETS in the Senate would inevitably build pressure around the next question, which would be: ‘Now what are we going to do?’
My main argument is that seeming to do something while actually doing nothing is bad because it takes the pressure off. This is because ‘the seeming’ fools people into thinking that Rudd is actually doing something. Unfortunately, the real problem with Global Warming is that no amount of ’seeming’ is going to make a skerrick of difference to the impacts. They will all be 100% real.
Beyond that, if Rudd persists with the dud 5% ETS, then there is a reasonable interpretation that he is more interested in the politics of personal power than in the future of the planet, hence my line on the HowRudd convergence. If the latter really is the case, I believe most of the posters on this blog would be both disappointed and worried; disappointed because we expected better from Rudd, worried because global warming will spare no-one.
A personal anecdote may interest you. I had an interesting conversation a few weeks ago with a chap whose job it was to help mayors of Alpine villages in Europe address the impacts of climate chage. These include increasingly chancy snow seasons, increased risks of avalanches as the permafrost melt at higher and higher altitudes, and increased risk of extreme climate events such as high winds and flooding. I asked how it was going. It was tricky, he said. At first all they want to do is talk about ways of ensuring that nothing affects property values.
In a bizarre sort of way it was sort of comforting to know that humans are the same the whole world over.
Oh, and another thing. Turbull’s line that the ETS is no good because it is going to cost jobs shows a very disturbing bit of double talk. Turnbull knows perfectly well that the job losses will grow to hundreds of millions as Global Warming sets in.
True – perhaps the ALP boys club is tighter down south?
Are there any others in line? (I really should pay more attention to state politics) And women on the LNP state side of things?
Hey, we had a woman premier in Victoria 18 years ago, remember? It’s not our fault the peasants wouldn’t elect her. (Actually it was her fault, but we won’t go into that.)
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