This post is being progressively updated to follow events in the campaign for the May 16 by-election in the Western Australian state seat of Fremantle.
Wednesday, May 6
Last night’s by-election forum at Notre Dame University saw a crowd of several hundred assemble to observe and interrogate 10 of the 11 candidates, independent Rosemary Anne Lorrimar having made her apologies. Although a highly entertaining affair, one wonders about the representativeness of an audience that appeared sharply divided between left and right. The former included a lot of very vocal Greens who extended an equally sympathetic hearing to the Socialist Alliance, while the latter consisted of a remarkably well mobilised crowd of Christian Democratic Party supporters. This included state party figurehead Gerard Goiran, who managed to get a question in. If any Labor partisans were present, they kept their thoughts largely to themselves.
As expected, Tagliaferri faced uncomfortable moments over the previous government’s stance on lead carbonate shipments and his own role in the Fremantle Markets stallholders issue, to which he offered practised responses. He also came face-to-face with Australian Services Union secretary Paul Burlinson over the non-union contracts episode, and found himself used as a punching bag for concerns over uranium and GM crops. His least convincing responses related to the Labor how-to-vote card’s placement of the Christian parties ahead of the Greens, and whether he would cross the floor on issues affecting the electorate. On the first count he replied that the only votes he cared about were primary ones – an honest answer would have been that they were keeping the card as simple as possible to reduce the informal vote, and it’s really only of academic interest anyway. The second was despatched with a line of obfuscation about “always putting Fremantle first”. It was a point worth pursuing, because Labor would face an interesting dilemma if Tagaliaferri did anything to warrant disendorsement, given its evident dependence on him to retain the seat.
Adele Carles inevitably had a much easier time, notwithstanding challenges from CDP supporters over drugs and prostitution, to which her responses would have neither won nor lost her any friends. Her strongest moment came when she told the audience they faced a choice between an independent voice and a Labor backbencher, artfully capped off with “sorry Peter”. She also spoke well in opposition to the “Dubai style” North Port Quay development. Her weakest moment came when she essentially told a representative of the Leeuwin tall ship replica project they could have as much money as they liked.
The outstanding performer of the minor candidates was a very articulate Sam Wainwright of the Socialist Alliance. Julie Hollett was almost as forceful in her presentation of the CDP’s case, which wasn’t so very different from Wainwright’s if you focused on the diagnosis (“we are currently grappling with the consequences of an immoral corporate culture guided by greed and self-interest”) rather the cure. Andriétte du Plessis of Family First left rather less of an impression, and was knocked back on a show of hands when she requested that Liberal MP turned party candidate Anthony Fels take her place when she had to leave early.
Riverton real estate agent and independent candidate Nik Varga still hasn’t made much of a case as to why he would like to represent Fremantle in particular, and his most memorable contribution was a candid admission of his Liberal sympathies. On the latter count he is in the same boat as Carmelo Zagami, who offered bona fide Fremantle credentials, anti-Labor rhetoric and a reasonable grab bag of local policy concerns. I don’t know how feasible independent Steve Boni’s showpiece policy of an underground freight transport tunnel is, but he at least sounded like he’d thought it through. Local anti-council crusader Jan ter Holst got quite a few laughs, apparently intentionally, while Rob Totten of the Citizens Electoral Council didn’t win too many converts with his poster demonstrating why global warming was a fraud. The rest of his spiel was the usual Larouchite deal about looming global depression and the need for a national bank to finance humungous national infrastructure projects, Rex Connor-style – which you would have to say sounds less bonkers than it used to.
I recorded proceedings on my mobile phone, but a) it didn’t sound very good, b) I accidentally deleted part of it, and c) I gather the ABC are going to put it up as a podcast in any case.
Tuesday, May 5
The candidates’ forum will be held this evening at Notre Dame University’s Drill Hall (at the Marine Terrace end of Mouat Street) at 7.30pm, hosted by Peter Kennedy of the ABC. If you recognise me, come up and say hi. A Labor mailout has hit the letterbox, featuring this covering letter, this flyer and a pamphlet with a front and back. That gives Labor a 2-0 lead in the mailout war. The Western Patriot has a good update on the campaign, which beats me to a point I had planned on making myself: that the widespread media coverage of union dissent with Tagliaferri might steel homeless Liberals to give him their vote, or at least their preference. Or as Western Patriot commenter Peter Van Insolent puts it: “Labor voters will be voting Green because they don’t want to vote Liberal and Liberal voters will be voting Labor because Labor is Liberal”. Labor might have hoped for better timing on the CPRS backdown, but the federal government obviously has bigger fish to fry than the Fremantle by-election.
Sunday, May 3
The Sunday Times has conducted a dubious sounding “survey” of 200 Fremantle voters, without providing details of how it was conducted. Respondents broke 106 for Peter Tagliaferri and 94 for Adele Carles, evidently without being given the option of nominating minor candidates. Today’s Fremantle May Day rally got a good run on the evening news, being the second story on Ten and the ABC and somewhat further down the order on Nine. Both stories focused on the Australian Services Union’s opposition to Peter Tagliaferri, with union secretary Wayne Wood sharing screen time with Tagliaferri and Eric Ripper.
Saturday, May 2
One clear winner has emerged from the campaign so far – the Fremantle Herald, which is bursting this week with election advertising. The paper has a May Day wraparound with a small ad promoting a Greens fundraiser gig at the Fly By Night Club, which I gather will feature Bob Brown backed by Lucky Oceans and Dave Brewer. Page two of the wraparound features ads from Peter Tagliaferri, Melissa Parke and Rachel Siewert. The front page of the paper proper has the first ad I’ve seen from Sam Wainwright, promoting himself as Socialist Alliance but formally an independent. Page three has a second big ad from independent Carmelo Zagami, who gives away rather more than he did in his first ad, along with a quarter-page Tagliaferri ad I can’t be bothered scanning. Adele Carles’ first full page ad graces page five. Page six has a quarter page ad for independent Jan ter Horst and a second entry from deputy mayor John Dowson, taking a too-clever-by-half dig at Tagliaferri. There’s a half-page Tagliaferri ad on the opposite page, and one from the North Port Quay proponents (which doesn’t mention the by-election) across the bottom halves of pages eight and nine. The same full-page ads as appeared for Nik Varga and Steve Boni in the Fremantle Gazette (see below) are on pages 12 and 15.
As for the news, reporter Jenny D’Anger informs us that Labor’s preference determinations have been designed to make the how-to-vote card easy to follow, with the Greens put second last because that’s where they are on the ballot paper (perhaps Labor might give some thought to backing optional preferential voting). Another report finds D’Anger seeking further unions to add to the one laboratory confirmed and one suspected case of anti-Tagliaferrianism, getting no bite from the Maritime Workers Union and no answer from the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union. The paper also features a vox pop in which plentiful support is to be found for the Greens. It was a similar story on the ABC’s Stateline yesterday (link presumably forthcoming), but perhaps that’s café strips for you.
Thursday, April 30
Julian Grill, lobbying colleague of Brian Burke and minister in his government, says Peter Tagliaferri should be expelled from the party he joined so very recently due to his membership of the Liberal fundraiser group the 500 Club. Tagliaferri says he joined after the Barnett government was elected last year to improve his access to its ministers as Fremantle mayor. Grill’s beef is that he himself was expelled ostensibly for making a donation to the Nationals on behalf of a client. This happened in the lead-up to the 2007 federal election, as Labor nervously contemplated the impact of its association with Grill and Burke. Embarrassment followed when it was revealed that Gary Gray, then candidate and now member for Brand, had also made donations to the Nationals in his capacity as corporate affairs director for Woodside – and that he was, in his own words, “a member of the 500 Club for about three years”.
The West Australian also reports that the Communications, Electrical and Plumbing Union has “told its members to ignore an ALP email calling on party faithful to march with Mr Tagliaferri and to wear T-shirts expressing Labor support” at the May Day rally in Fremantle this weekend. Its concerns are not shared by another union which Labor has traditionally not been able to rely on – the WA Police Union, whose president Mike Dean says Tagliaferri has been “a strong supporter of police for many years on a number of matters, including on wages claims and local policing issues”.
Two independents have expensive full-page ads in this week’s Fremantle Gazette Community newspaper. Independent candidate and Riverton real estate agent Nik Varga interestingly has the “V” in his name spelled with a tilted Liberal Party logo. However, Varga says he “won’t give my preferences to the Greens” due to his pro-development stance, which presumably means Labor will get them instead. The ad sells Varga as an “Independent with a Liberal voice in a Green wilderness”. One-time Labor candidate Steve Boni has a professional looking effort which like Varga’s expresses support for the North Port Quay project. Frank Calabrese in comments notes that authorisation details for each just show name and suburb – not sure how this stacks up against the Electoral Act’s requirement that the “name and address” be shown. Also in the Fremantle Gazette is an article by Angie Raphael in which the candidates offer brief explanations of what makes them tick.
More axe-grinding from The Western Patriot, which is overdue to start spelling Tagliaferri’s name correctly (UPDATE: WP’s error now corrected.).
Tuesday, April 28
Labor’s postal vote application mailout is hitting Fremantle’s letterboxes, accompanied by this flier. Paul Murray of The West Australian talks up discontent over the Labor credentials of Peter Tagliaferri, who directed preferences to the Liberals as an independent candidate in 1990 and threatened to run against Melissa Parke as an independent at the federal election. Also noted are his “tentative support” for the North Port Quay project, the council’s eviction of Fremantle Markets stallholders and deputy mayor John Dowson’s campaign against him. The article’s star attraction is Ruth Belben, a one-time electorate officer to John Dawkins whose election to council in 1987 prompted Tagliaferri to complain it had become dominated by Labor. Observing that yesterday’s West Australian report focused on a union not affiliated with the ALP, Bule in comments argues: “The real story will be when/if an affiliated union splits to oppose Tagliaferri.”
Monday, April 27
Saturday’s West Australian reported that the Australian Services Union will meet to consider a recommendation by secretary Wayne Wood that it campaign for Adele Carles. The union is unhappy with Peter Tagliaferri because of a Fremantle council non-union pay deal, which Tagliaferri argues he could not legally have involved himself with as it was an operational matter.
Friday, April 24
A candidates’ forum will be held at Notre Dame University’s Drill Hall (at the Marine Terrace end of Mouat Street) at 7.30pm on Tuesday, May 5, hosted by Peter Kennedy of the ABC. The public are invited to submit questions for the candidates to freodebate@yahoo.com.au.
Fremantle deputy mayor John Dowson has been on the warpath against Tagliaferri, first over his move to extend generous lease terms to the Fremantle Italian Club, now on the interesting terrain of Tagliaferri’s alleged neglect of the council’s “green plan”. Dowson has a quarter-page ad in today’s Fremantle Herald in which he says the plan “has not been updated or seriously fudned in the 8 years since he was elected”. Elsewhere in the Herald, Adele Carles gets a photo in on front page while Tagliaferri gets two (both posed with Julia Gillard) on page two. There are two ads for Peter Tagliaferri (the one at the top is from last week’s edition), one for the Greens and one for independent Carmelo Zagami.
Saturday, April 18
Robert Taylor reviews the minor players in his Political Sketch column in today’s West Australian:
There’s Christian Democrat Julia Hollett, who yesterday put out a press release opposing the Greens “agenda to introduce primary school curriculum to teach young children lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and inter-sex lifestyles”. We can safely assume her preferences will end with Mr Tagliaferri. Then there’s Rosemary Anne Lorrimar, a nurse who blames Mr McGinty for turning her from a private sector employee into a public servant and twice ran for the DLP in the 1960s against Kim Beazley – that’s Beazley Sr. She will be directing preferences to Mr Tagliaferri not the least because the Greens are “more worried about trees and whales than people.” Mr Tagliaferri can also count on pro-development Labor lawyer Steve Boni, a former ALP candidate, for preferences and more than likely will also get Family First’s Andriette DuPlessis’s preferences.
Ms Carles can count on preferences from Sam Wainwright, a wharfie and member of the Socialist Alliance Party whose main platform is that Australia should be 100 per cent reliant on renewable energy by 2020. Ubiquitous Fremantle campaigner Jan Ter Horst should also put a few votes Ms Carles’ way as should Liberal, now independent, Carmelo Zagami. Sketch isn’t quite sure which way the Citizens’ Electoral Council’s Rob Totten will send his preferences but given that he holds a diploma in homepathic ionic therapy, we’re guessing Green.
Taylor concludes that Labor is most likely just “guarding against complacency” with its talk of possible defeat, as “there’s no unpopular Labor government and more importantly no Liberal Party candidate”. A report on last night’s ABC Television news focusing on the nomination of Carmelo Zagami can be viewed online. Gasp in awe at the dashing fellow with the clipboard standing behind Peter Tagliaferri at the ballot paper draw. Here’s a letter from Tagliaferri seeking assistance from Labor members well outside the electorate, passed on to the Poll Bludger by a top-level party insider.
Friday, April 17
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| District returning officer Tracey Elliott takes care of business |
Full list of candidates in ballot paper order, as drawn today at the Electoral Commission’s Spearwood office (to be updated with biographical details as they come to hand):
Nik Varga (Independent).
Rob Totten (Citizens Electoral Council).
Jan ter Horst (Independent). Ter Horst has been making himself known locally with claims of council corruption, which he has publicised by daubing slogans on his house and driving a car with a coffin on top. He has been in long-running dispute with the council over a neighbouring strata development which has blocked his ocean views.
Carmelo Zagami (Independent). The manager of the Fremantle United soccer club, Zagami polled 35.9 per cent as the Liberal candidate for the federal seat of Fremantle in 2004. The ABC reports he is running “to give Fremantle voters a chance to vote for a conservative candidate”, and plans to direct his preferences to the Greens.
Steve Boni (Independent). Described by Robert Taylor of The West Australian as a “pro-development Labor lawyer”, Boni was Labor’s candidate for Roe (which has since been superseded by Eyre) at the 2001 election, running fourth with 16.2 per cent of the vote.
Andriette du Plessis (Family First).
Peter Tagliaferri (Labor). Tagliaferri is a member of a prominent local Italian family, and assumed ownership of its Interfoods cafe in 1983. In that year he became at 23 the youngest person ever elected to local government in Western Australia when he was elected to East ward on Fremantle City Council. He ran as an independent in the 1990 by-election that brought Jim McGinty to the seat, polling 3.6 per cent. In 2001 he was elected mayor, defeating incumbent Richard Utting, and was re-elected in 2005 with 62 per cent of the vote.
Julie Hollett (Christian Democratic Party). Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports Hollett put out a press release on the day nominations closed opposing the Greens’ “agenda to introduce primary school curriculum to teach young children lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and inter-sex lifestyles”. The CDP put the Greens last at the state election in all but a few seats where it didn’t direct preferences, with the interesting exception of Willagee where Alan Carpenter did the honours.
Rosemary-Anne Lorrimar (Independent). Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports Lorrimar is “a nurse who blames Mr McGinty for turning her from a private sector employee into a public servant”, and that she “will be directing preferences to Mr Tagliaferri not the least because the Greens are ‘more worried about trees and whales than people’.” As Rosemary Taboni, she was a candidate for the Democratic Labor Party three times in the 1970s – against Kim Beazley Sr in 1972, and for the Senate in 1974 and 1975 – and she is presumably also the Rosemary Lorrimar who for the Christian Democratic Party in Willagee in 2005.
Adele Carles (Greens). Carles is a 41-year-old lawyer and resident of South Fremantle. She came to local prominence first as part of the Save South Beach campaign, which opposed a housing development within contentiously close range of the beach’s dunes, and later when she launched a legal challenge against the state government’s plans to dig up a former lead smelter site in South Fremantle. Carles polled 5.8 per cent as an independent running in opposition to the South Beach development in 2005, and surprised most observers by scoring 27.6 per cent when nominated by the Greens in 2008 – more than 10 per cent higher than former MPs Ian Alexander and Jim Scott had achieved in 2001 and 2005, and 6.0 per cent higher than the combined vote of Carles and Scott in 2005.
Sam Wainwright. Wainwright is the candidate of the unregistered Socialist Alliance, for which he ran officially as federal candidate for Fremantle in 2007 and unofficially in the state upper house region of South Metropolitan in 2005. The Green Left Weekly describes him as “a wharfie, member of the Maritime Union of Australia and activist in the Fremantle Community Solidarity group”.
Thursday, April 16
Only one more shopping day to go before the closure of nominations and ballot paper draw. Considerable media attention has been given this week to Peter Tagliaferri’s determination to stay on as mayor until his term expires in October. Deputy mayor John Dowson is quoted by the Fremantle Cockburn Gazette saying he should stand down if elected, while Amanda Banks of The West Australian relates that Tagliaferri’s predecessor as mayor, Richard Utting, has joined Adele Carles in calling on him to stand down during the by-election campaign. The issue also got a run on last night’s ABC television news. Today’s West features a lengthy opinion piece on the by-election by Paul Murray – a link will hopefully be forthcoming.
Sunday, April 12
The Western Patriot, a feisty new Perth news and opinion site published by former Labor staffers John Theodorsen and Nathan Hondros, identifies a “sleeper” local issue:
12,000 people signed a petition to save Kel Smith’s Carriage Café on the Fremantle Esplanade. Kel’s café has funneled caffeine to exhausted parents near Fremantle’s best playground for the better part of three decades. Many of Kel’s signatories would not be local, but the famous Freo gossip mill puts the City of Fremantle’s plans to bulldoze the café down to lobbying by Camellia Holdings Pty Ltd, the owner of the Esplanade Hotel. This issue is niggling for locals, many of whom are fond of the owners of this small but vital business.
Friday, April 10
The writ for the by-election was issued yesterday, making official May 16 as polling day. Nominations close at noon next Friday (a day earlier for party candidates), with the ballot paper draw to follow and the roll to close at 6pm that evening. The complete timeline for the by-election can be viewed here.
Brendan Foster of the Fremantle Herald reports:
Both the Greens’ Adele Carles and Labor’s Peter Tagliaferri want rail extended south of Fremantle but Ms Carles wants light rail too, extended throughout the metro area. Mr Tagliaferri says moving the port to Kwinana will cost jobs and he’ll fight it … “In particular we need a rail from Fremantle, through South Beach to Port Coogee” (Carles said). Mr Tagliaferri, born and bred in Fremantle, laughed off suggestions by Ms Carles, a South Freo resident, that he would be too Freo-centric, ignoring the outlying suburbs of the electorate in Cockburn and the fringes of Melville.
Thursday, April 9
The ABC reports the Liberals have decided to sit this one out. Obviously they don’t think they’re travelling so well in Fremantle that they could repeat Labor’s feat in the New South Wales seat of Clarence in 1996, when the Nationals-held seat fell to Bob Carr’s promising young government with a 14.0 per cent swing (the margin in Fremantle is 12.0%) – though admittedly this was achieved with a popular candidate who until recently served the area at federal level. Antony Green has a comprehensive guide to the by-election with more historical detail than you can poke a stick at.
Wednesday, April 8
The ABC reports Colin Barnett saying that “while some in the Liberal Party will be keen to run against Labor, he sees it as a distraction for the Government”. The party will discuss whether to field a candidate tonight. Should they require a primer on the subject, Antony Green has written a comprehensive overview of the pros and cons of running by-election candidates in safe seats.
Tuesday, April 7
Labor’s administration committee has unanimously chosen Peter Tagliaferri as its candidate from a field of three nominees, the other two being the aforementioned Keith McCorriston and local branch member David Hume.
Green Left Weekly says the unregistered Socialist Alliance has announced its candidate will be Sam Wainwright, “a wharfie, member of the Maritime Union of Australia and activist in the Fremantle Community Solidarity group”. Wainwright ran for the Socialist Alliance in the federal seat of Fremantle in 2007 and the upper house region of South Metropolitan at the 2005 state election.
Monday, April 6
The grapevine reports that Keith McCorriston nominated for Labor preselection today, ahead of the closure of nominations at 4pm tomorrow. McCorriston is president of the party’s Fremantle branch and an official with the Maritime Union of Australia, which is obviously influential in the portside electorate – although that probably won’t count for much if as expected the preselection is decided by the party’s administration committee. McCorriston is also said to have backing from “some of the other blue-collar Left unions”, but a decisive-sounding combination of the Right unions and McGinty’s Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union has lined up behind Peter Tagliaferri (the Cockburn City Herald reports McGinty has described Tagliaferri as an “excellent candidate with ministerial potential”). However, one might speculate on the possibility of a union-backed independent spoiler emerging, such as helped deliver the federal seat of Cunningham to the Greens at a by-election in 2002. The West Australian reported this morning that the Liberals are still keeping their options open, with the better part of three weeks to go before nominations close. Greens MLC Giz Watson is encouraging them to enter the fray.
Saturday, April 4
The West Australian reports Peter Tagliaferri has gone back on an earlier threat to stand as an independent if he does not win Labor preselection. Joe Poprzeczny at WA Business News reports there are also rumours surrounding the imminent departure of John Kobelke, whose margin in his northern suburbs seat of Balcatta was slashed from 9.3 per cent to 2.3 per cent at the election. However, the rumour seems to be that the departure is not immediately imminent, but will rather coincide with a change of leadership ahead of the federal election and Alannah MacTiernan’s tilt at the Liberal-held federal seat of Canning, allowing for simultaneous by-elections in Balcatta and MacTiernan’s safe Labor seat of Armadale.
Here is my piece from yesterday’s Crikey Daily Mail:
The lid was officially lifted overnight on the worst-kept secret in Western Australian politics: the resignation of Left faction powerbroker, senior front-bencher and one-time Opposition Leader Jim McGinty. The announcement comes six weeks before the May 16 daylight saving referendum, and has obviously been timed so the resulting by-election can be held on the same day.
While this will limit the backlash that usually occurs when voters are dragged to the polling booths mid-term, Labor is by no means out of jail. Like its federal counterpart, McGinty’s electorate of Fremantle has traditionally been a stronghold for Labor, which has held the seat without interruption since 1924. However, a significant demographic shift in recent decades has seen the port city’s waterside workers and migrant communities make way for an assortment of alternative lifestylers, café dwellers, university students and bong shop proprietors.
While this mixture had long made the electorate a strong source of support for the Greens, few anticipated the strength of their candidate’s performance at last September’s state election. Adele Carles picked up a swing of over 10 per cent on the primary vote, and appeared on track early in the count to overtake the Liberal candidate and defeat McGinty on preferences. Carles ultimately finished in third place 3.4 per cent behind the Liberals, but the result made it clear that Labor could no longer take Fremantle for granted, particularly in the context of a by-election.
The Labor hierarchy has recognised its weakness by courting a non-party member in Peter Tagliaferri, who has been mayor of Fremantle since 2001. This trod on the toes of various union officials, reportedly including McGinty’s successor at the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union, Dave Kelly. While Keith McCorriston of the Maritime Union of Australia could recently be heard musing about his options, it appears all but certain that Tagliaferri will be endorsed in coming weeks by the party’s administrative committee. The Greens meanwhile have conducted a pre-emptive preselection which saw Carles win endorsement without opposition.
The Liberals are remaining coy as to whether they will go to the effort of fielding a candidate. While they could reasonably plead that running in a seat with Fremantle’s track record would not be worth the expense, they might care to recall that they cut the margin below five per cent at the 1990 by-election that brought Jim McGinty to the seat. However, the Barnett government hasn’t been making too many friends locally with its plan to allow Magellan Metals to transport lead carbonate through the port, after a similar operation in Esperance was linked to widespread contamination and the deaths of thousands of birds. A more realistic consideration is whether they would harm the Greens by giving them a hurdle to clear for second place, or help them by marshalling the votes of supporters who dutifully follow the how-to-vote card.
The word from the Labor camp is that polling shows local supporters are so angry that last year’s botched early election delivered government to the hated Coalition that they are of a mind to punish the party further with a protest vote. The story goes that Labor are by no means assured of victory over the Greens even with Tagliaferri in their corner, and would be gone for all money without him.
Below is a chart mapping the primary vote in Fremantle going back to 1974, when John Tonkin’s one-term Labor government was defeated by the Charles Court-led Coalition. There have of course been redistributions over this time, but they have had little effect on Fremantle, whose northern and western boundaries have remained defined by the Swan River and the ocean. The one-vote one-value redistribution ahead of the last election slightly weakened Labor by removing working class areas in the electorate’s far south and increasing the potency of Greens support around the city centre, but even this only reduced Labor from 44.9 per cent to 43.8 per cent and boosted the Greens from 15.8 per cent to 17.1 per cent (as calculated by Antony Green). Labor’s slump in 1989 resulted from the independent candidacy of John Troy, who held the seat from 1977 to 1980 when he was rolled for preselection by David Parker (no doubt explaining the slight dip in Labor’s vote in 1980). The Labor primary vote fell further at the 1990 by-election held when Parker made way for Jim McGinty after the WA Inc catastrophe cost him the deputy premiership. Among the Melbourne Cup field on that occasion was one Pietro Tagliaferri, who polled 645 votes (3.62 per cent) as an independent.
Friday, April 3
The lid has officially been lifted on the worst-kept secret in Western Australian politics: the resignation of Left faction powerbroker, senior front-bencher and one-time Opposition Leader Jim McGinty. This will result in a by-election in the Poll Bludger’s very own electorate of Fremantle. While the timing of the by-election remains at the discretion of the Speaker of the Legislative Assembly, it can be taken for granted that it will be held in conjunction with the May 16 daylight savings referendum. Fremantle has been in Labor hands since 1924 and is in no danger from the Liberals, but it nonetheless looms as a fascinating contest due to the strong performance at last year’s state election by Greens candidate Adele Carles, who fell 3.4 per cent short of overtaking the Liberals and winning the seat on their preferences. Carles has already been endorsed as the Greens candidate for the by-election, while Labor is considered all but certain to nominate Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri. Much, much more to follow, including a piece in today’s Crikey Daily Mail.
202 Comments
Ahh Jim. I went to high school with his daughters and I’d run into him at lefty garden parties in the western suburbs from time to time. I wonder what he’ll get up to now.
I assume the Libs will sit this one out.
Actually, if I were the Libs, I’d have a run at it. If that last Westpoll is right (57:43 to the Libs), they might not win the seat but they could severely dent Labor morale. And we have seen Libs at various times sitting out byelections because they don’t want to give themselves unnecessary distractions, but this is really a distraction for Labor. So I think the Libs will have a run at it. How well they do will be interesting.
On the Greens – will Carles do any better in the byelection? While some of McGinty’s personal vote will disappear, the ALP is in opposition. Yes, Ripper is hardly popular, but Tagliaferri is hardly un-popular, so I wouldn’t expect a Cunningham scenario. I would actually expect the Green vote to fall slightly, the Libs to come up & ALP to hold steady. Of course, the machinations of the referendum might play in to – and I don’t know how that’s playing out at present. And there is the raft of others who come out to play at byelection time to mix it up as well!
#3
- Fremantle is not the sort of seat where Labor is under threat from the Liberals. Labor’s biggest threat is from the Greens or a left-wing independent. The Libs might well finish third in a seat like Fremantle; a humiliating result even if Fremantle is not really representative of WA as a whole.
- The best chance of a Green or other candidate getting up is for the Libs to sit it out and give them a free run. Keeps all the focus on Labor, and allows all the candidates to preference among themselves and put Labor last. This maximises the impact of any protest vote against Labor. See Cunningham for a good example of this.
- As Gippsland showed, even popular governments tend not to do well in by-elections. Rudd was polling even better than Barnett and was still comprehensively beaten in Gippsland, then wisely decided to sit out Mayo.
So…what would the Liberals achieve by running?
If the Libs were smart they’d sit it out, giving The Greens the best chance of winning.
McGinty was a consumate performer in just about every office he held, with the glaring exception of ALP leader in Opposition. It was largely his work as Attorney General and Health Minister that got Geoff Gallop re-elected.
William’s post on the previous thread noted that former premier Alan Carpenter had given his imprimatur to Peter Tagliaferri to replace McGinty, rather than LHMU head Dave Kelly. This might say more about Carpenter’s own plans. I wouldn’t be surprised if Carpenter announced his intention to quit parliament in the next few days, so Kelly could have a run in Willagee.
MDMConnell
Sure, and thats been the perceived wisdom, but then Brogden played that sort of hand (as an opposition leader) for byelections in seats that the Libs had no chance – and this was at east in part his downfall. If the part of the action is to provide branding and to reinforce it, then there is every reason to run. Now I don’t seriously think the Libs will win this seat, but electors also don’t like MP’s quitting post-election when their side lost. The anger and disappointment in Nedlands when Richard Court resigned post-election was almost palpable – they wanted him to stay, but he chose to jump ship. The election went down to the wire (with the ALP running pretty dead, but making sure they had people on the booths handing out HTV’s to gather up as many votes as they could) with Sue Walker winning a Lib heartland seat on 53.4% TPP.
So, I’d see the Libs running as a distraction for Labor, maybe not running hard but directing preferences away from Labor (they have disciplined voters who follow HTV’s) to cause as much grief as possible for Labor. I’m not sure what Independents there are in Freo these days (hey William, that’s one for you as a local boy!), so I’d expect the Greens to have the best chance. And they could tie the ALP to daylight saving to make it even more tricky.
Or they could decide to run as hard as possible to try and push the Greens back into 3rd place. Why? To try to minimise the impact of the Greens. Not likely, but I haven’t forgotten the Tassie MP reductions designed to cut the Greens out of parliament. Of, and we have Rann wanting to have a referendum on the SA upper house…loss of over-sight & accountability anyone?
Brogden’s downfall had nothing to do with skipping any by-elections and everything to do with do with his drunken tomfoolery.
The only election they sat out under his leadership was the Londonderry supplementary. That was in May 2003. He remained leader until September 2005.
Correction. Looking it up, I now see the decision to sit out Maroubra and Marrickville (but contest Macquarie Fields) was made whilst Brogden was still leader.
Nonetheless, I can’t imagine that stories of Brogden’s behaviour were leaked by his party enemies in a fit of rage about not contesting Bob Carr’s old seat.
David Walsh
No, but it was one of the reasons given for people being unhappy with his leadership. O’Farrell made a point of saying they’d contest everything after that – and it certainly delivered a resounding message to NSW Labor in the byelections that followed – including a swing of over 20% in Cabramatta.
McGinty’s vote dropped 6% between the 2005 & 2008 elections, so could conceivably fall further (the Libs polled 30% at that last election). What would it say if the Libs outpolled the ALP? Or the Greens outpolled the ALP? I would suggest that standing aside for the Greens in Fremantle is not on Barnett’s agenda, and it would be in his interest to rub the ALP’s face in the lost election (and Ripper’s face in particular). Not that this is the outcome I would prefer. McGinty was a good performer, and to my mind his one blemish was giving in too easily to the Greens on electoral reform (and I say that as a Green)…oh, and he wasn’t great as Opposition Leader, but then those were dark days under Court.
Even if it was wimpish for the NSW Libs to sit out some by-elections, it’s not particularly relevant. By-elections are a different game for governments than they are for oppositions. The Howard govt recognised this: they never contested a by-election in a Labor seat.
Typically goverments suffer some sort of backlash at a by-election. Perhaps that may be different for a young, fresh government. But the experience of Gippsland suggests it may not.
Barnett won’t be rubbing Ripper’s face in anything because this is an unwinnable seat for the Liberal Party. The only way they can cause the ALP embarassment is if they step aside for a party that can defeat Labor.
In freo the libs would be even less popular due to the lead shipment proposal. People in Freo are very pissed off. Assuming Tagliaferri gets the nod, I would be very surprised if the ALP has a problem.
Because Howard did or did not context an election doesn’t make it wisdom. And of course by-elections are different when in Govt & Opposition – but thats as much about perception as anything else. I come back to Nedlands – Labor ran in a safe Lib seat, when Labor were in govt. The edge they provided was they gathered votes and directed them to the Greens and Libs 4 Forests (running as an Independent) ahead of the Libs The ALP still polled second but were overtaken by the Greens Steve Walker & Collin (the L4F candidate) combined. It makes just as much sense to do that here.
That said, they could just as easily sit back and watch everybody else fight over the seat. And they could rub Ripper’s face in it if the ALP was outpolled by either the Libs OR Greens – just to say 16% wont win you elections.
By the way, I’m not entirely convinced the Greens can win the seat. There will always be a slice of Lib voters who would prefer another major party (ie; the ALP) to win over the Greens who may just go ahead and vote directly for the ALP, or will channel their preferences through the other minors like the CDP or FFP. And there wont be the hype around the general election (which, with the “arrogance” of Carpenter would have surpressed McGinty’s primary vote), Tagliaferri isn’t being “imposed” on them like Martin in Cunningham, nor will be seen like Court’s dummy spit in Nedlands, although I’m assuming the last. Thats why I think Labor’s primary vote will hold up or increase.
Ah, Zombie Mayo – thanks for that, forgot about the lead shipments. That of course might mean the Libs not standing OR it might mean they stand and direct their supporters to vote Green before ALP.
#13
Aren’t you contradicting yourself there, SJ? You suggest the Liberals could rub Labor’s face in it by outpolling them, then claim Labor’s primary vote will hold up or increase.
The Liberals going to poll 45% primary vote in Fremantle, are they?
Vote 1 William Bowe, Independent for Fremantle!
The best chance of the greens winning is a Liberal candidate running and directing preferences surely.
MDM
Libs poll 45% in Freo? Not very likely, but then McGinty won with 38% primary. To overturn McGinty’s TPP, the Libs would have to poll over 42%, which while still unlikely is not impossible. The issue of the Libs rubbing Ripper’s face in it is really a side issue. Yes, the Libs would love for Labor to lose another seat, if only to make their own position a little more secure. After Lawrence lost in 1993 there were 3 byelections in ALP-held seats, with 1 being won slightly unexpectedly by the Libs (Helena), but the others hangin on. All good grist for the Liberal mill to show how the ALP was not fit to govern. Can the picking of non-Party member Tagliaferri be seen as the ALP being worried about Fremantle? Maybe also to make sure the voters come out and vote (although the referendum should help). One thing, though, are the ALP running a pro-Daylight Saving campaign? If they are it could make life more difficult (I think I’ve asked this before, but can’t remember the answer).
My own preference in all of this is a low key Lib campaign with HTV’s preferencing the Greens distributed – ala the ALP Nedlands byelection – and a big Greens campaign (with real money being spent too).
BTW, having met Ripper on a number of occasions he always seemed the reasonable sort, but in the dying days of the Lawrence Govt he was the Minister responsible for underfunding Supported Accomodation in WA (homeless accommodation etc) such that he was nicknamed “Eric the Ripper”. Some of us in that field were less than impressed…
No, no, no: William for Willagee! On a platform of 24hr bludging for all and no rude words.
the Liberals really hate Mcginty too.. i can’t see them allowing him to pass along the seat without causing a bit of trouble one way or the other.
Whats that Adam: Willy for Willa?
Don’t underestimate the Italian vote for Tagliaferri. With his hight profile as Fremantle Mayor, and his outspoken oppositrion to Lead Shipments I reckon He’ll win it for Labor.
bring it on!
William Bowe for Fremantle!
William should run as a Liberal. Barnett might give you a portfolio!
Small problem – William has to become a member first
From WA Today:
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/liberals-could-hold-the-key-in-fremantle-20090403-9lxb.html
Re Nedlands, how can running third be considered a good result for the Gallop government?
Once again it was the Greens who stood the best chance of embarassing the Opposition and the government nearly got in the way.
It would be a disgrace to give the seat to the Greens the last thing those extremists deserve is a voice in the LA!
The Libs should run and run hard. It will hurt the ALP and destroy the Greens at the same time.
We have to convince William, to run as a Liberal though, Glen.
Glen just proving that everybody but a Liberal is an enemy – not just the ALP. How about “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” Glen?
Re Nedlands – because running third meant that their preferences were distributed. Given that some Lib voters were voting against the Libs but not for the ALP there was an opportunity to harvest preferences against the Libs. The state ALP saw this and went with the low-key approach (and ran a young inexperienced candidate). It was not a seat the ALP was going to win, but there was an opportunity for the Libs to lose a seat. The same applies here – the Libs don’t have much of a prospect, but there is the opportunity for the ALP to lose a seat.
Because Michael Organ was just such a troublemaker in the House of Reps… sigh.
Funny how historically it used to be Labor v the rest, and now it seems it’s Liberal v the rest.
And I think the Green candidate would benefit from an independent Liberal candidate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cunningham_by-election,_2002
Get them all to pref the Green candidate, and assuming the Green primary is high enough, it might get them over the line.
Here we go:
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/liberals-could-hold-the-key-in-fremantle-20090403-9lxb.html
I reckon the Liberals should run in the seat, whether or not some of Fremantle is pissed off with their decision to truck through some goodies through their electorate.
I think all the obvious reasons stand:
*Barnett to at least spin a positive story [with his Media Department ;P you all know what I mean by that] and demoralise Labor no matter what the vote brings in.
*A chance at giving the Greens some pref flows on their HTV cards to maybe cause a Green upset, or at the very least, deprive Labor some of its bounty in the war chest.
*Any shot at this early in the Govt for a by-election is worth a chance, I’m sure Barnett doesn’t like the minority govt hanging on with the independents that much [as liberal as they are]. Even at extreme long odds, still worth having a shot, as the above 2 points still apply.
*Make this seat more marginal, means Labor will have to divert resources to it next election, which might also add as another reason why the Liberals would run.
However: Does anyone know where the Greens, Labor and Liberals all stand on the daylight saving position? I thought urban WA actually liked daylight saving, so the trials under Labor should work in their favour in this seat. However, if not, could backfire towards the Greens/Libs. A very interesting seat to watch and something to keep me occupied post-Qld 2009 Election.
To add on to point 1: all the more positive spin for barnett will keep those ugly pages of the public service & council amalgamations vs canal, troy and the rest of Govt out of the headlines and give his Govt some breathing space.
I don’t see why the Libs would run in a by-election that they can’t win. They should just run a Liberal Independent for the true believers and let the Greens and ALP scrap it out.
Hardly. They know a by-election is very different to a general election.
By-elections typically see swings against the govt. So if this is their aim, the odds are against them.
Problem with this idea is the very real risk that the Libs will deprive the Greens of preferences by running ahead of them. And the war chest argument goes both ways; the Libs would also be spending money.
This is the only point I can credit. Yes the govt has a free shot at a seat, and they have nothing to lose. Shame it’s not a very winnable seat.
No, this is flawed reasoning. One abberant by-election result doesn’t make a seat more winnable. Take Aston in 2001. Was the Liberal position more precarious because their margin had been reduced to 0.6%? Not at all, if anything the seat was seen as stronger for the Libs because they’d survived the by-election.
Latest update:
Not sure if this has been mentioned anywhere yet. The Greens did pretty well in 2008, but half of what you could call the swing to them actually happened in 2005. Jim Scott (who’d just resigned from the upper house) got 15.8%, down 0.7%, but Adele Carles ran as an independent (anti South Beach development I think) and got 5.8% herself, so the combined vote was 21.6% – compare to 26.6% for the Liberals and 44.9% for Labor. Most of Carles’ voters preferenced the Greens, so that was almost as close as 2008 – just not as obviously.
And I wonder how the Italian vote will be a factor in this ? With Tagliaferri’s Italian roots, and his former ownership of Interfoods and his high profile in the Italian Community and his role as mayor will play a major factor as Italians feel more comfortable dealing with an Italian speaking local member (as do other ethnic voters) – John D’Orazio and John Castrilli are two such examples, especially the latter with the Italian Community in Bunbury, though this strategy failed when current City of Swan Mayor Charlie Zannino stood in Midland.
I didn’t know about Carles running in 2005, Bird – thanks very much for pointing it out.
I don’t understand the MacTiernan speculation… is Canning really that likely a win for the ALP? I don’t see it.
ltep, don’t underestimate the propensity of suburbanites to swing towards a first term government. We’ve seen it a number times at state elections.
The voters of Canning might’ve been reluctant to get rid of Howard, but that doesn’t mean they’ll vote Liberal this time. On the contrary, they might decide once again to stick with the devil they know; which in this case will be Rudd.
Plus Labor’s coming off a low base in WA; so there’s ample room for improvement. I’d expect strong challenges from Labor in Swan (which they already notionally hold), Stirling, Canning and Cowan.
(Hope I’m not getting too far off topic…)
Here’s a different perspective on “Sunny” Jims departure.
http://desertrat2007.blogspot.com/2009/04/le-cirque-mcginty-pris-un-coup-de.html
It seems Mr Rat has an axe to grind against the CCC andd in particular Mike Sliverstone, in particular in his role in the Children Overboard Fiasco.
Not to mention his role in the CCC fiasco.
That as well
Now are we going to have Flyer watch for the By-election ? Will the Libs bring back Brian Burke, or that other Freo fellow Norm Malborough ? 
David @45. You are right. WA has a history of major corrections against the national swing. 1998 is probably a feasible target for WA Labor in terms of federal seats won. At the state level the really big swings to first-term Labor govts have been in the middle-class suburbs and most of Perth is a middle-class suburb.
If the Greens win this by-election then they will have 5 members of parliament and so qualify for party status. This would lead to the question of who would be leader (If they don`t decide not to have a leader)? An MLC or Adele Carles who would gain a more prominent position in the Legislative Assembly Chamber and be able to make an argument to be in the leaders debates (especially if the Nationals leader is there).
The grapevine reports that Peter Tagliaferri has defeated McCorriston in an administration committee preselection vote.
I wonder if there will be an “Independent Union” candidate who will conveniently preference the Greens ?
Maybe Sam Wainwright fits your bill, FC (see the update to my update at the top).
I wonder if he is related to failed Midland Ward candidate (and Michelle Roberts staffer) Steve Wainwright whose brother Mick is a councillor in the Altone Ward ?
http://www.cityofswan.com/default.asp?doc_id=11&parent_id=1&doc_type_id=2&councillor_id=3359
Does this mean Tagliaferri has to resign his membership of the 500 Club?
Yep, cos the sole reason he joined was because even as Mayor, he could never get an appointment to speak to Ministers, but ironically as a member of the 500 club, access was a lot easier.
Sounds corrupt and undemocratic.
BTW, good to see John Quigley appointed to Shadow Attorney General – now we have someone who will really give it to Christian Porter
SO Taggers has been picked and Barnett is not a fan of the Liberals contesting the by-election. ALP looks like holding on to Fremantle comfortably. Cannot see Liberals all voting for the far left greens instead of the Mayor.
Yep, totally agre, and Taggers will be campaigning heavily against the Lead Exports as well – and watch those Italian Voters, they love to support their paesane
The Greens aren’t far-left down there… more anti-development. Anti white shoe brigade-type development, anyway… South Beach, Port Coogee, etc.
Has the Chook taken a side, or is it just reporting it?
Liberals not in it
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/09/2539140.htm
Where were those Italian Voters in the 1990 by-election when Pietro Tagliaferri polled a grand total of 3.6%? Why did they not come out and support him then?
The sole reason??? What about the fact that he is a conservative millionaire businessman wanting to put his support behind the Libs?
Do you mean the same Lead Exports approved by David Templeman when the ALP were in government? Isn’t it a tad hypocritical to be attacking the Libs over the very same policy put in place by the ALP when they were in government?
He wasn’t Fremantle Mayor at the time
Ooooh right…I didn’t realise the support of the Italian Community was contingent upon also being Mayor.
Well it does help
Being a mere businessman who is running as an independent is also a handicap, and what’s to say there were quite a large number of Labor leaning Italians ?
Now with no liberal Candidate, any Italins who vote liberal, as well as Italian Labor supporters have someone to support.
I am by no means a Taggers fan but I’d hate to see labor lose this seat to the greens. The fremantle greens appeal to grassroot hippies, the sort that say no to development at all cost. Fremantle has just missed out on the biggest boom since the 80’s due to a lack of strategic vision by the council and those ingrained in local politics including Tagliaferi and the very vocal Green movement. Taggers and the labor party are certainly a lesser threat to growth and development than the Greens under Carles.
It’s completely democratic. The people will vote for whom they wish at the by-election.
It seems they prefer ‘convenors’ rather than ‘leaders’. Which is crap imho.
It’s going back a way in this thread now (and dangerously close to being off-topic), but on Ozymandias’ #6, the potential of Kelly contesting Willagee is quite strong. Carpenter got pre-selected on the basis of LHMWU support, and that support has evaporated in the wake of the election. However, I wouldn’t support a prediction that Carpenter will retire to allow this to happen. Recent media reports highlighted that he had shared a meal with Joe Bullock, with the latter expressing his view that Carpenter is still frontbench material. It is conceivable that Carpenter will consider contesting the seat at the next election with Right support.
In the discussion regarding MacTiernan and Canning, I think David #45 has hit the mark. In addition, Labor has underperformed in that seat for the past two elections at least, picking entirely underwhelming candidates with virtually no profile in the electorate whatsoever. Regardless of whatever hay the Liberal party may seek to make of MacTiernan’s perceived flaws during the sunshine of an election campaign, the fact remains that she would be a vastly superior candidate to those who have run in the seat in the past.
Now, to the topic at hand. It is easy to get distracted, I think luke, by soft-target debates over whether or not sweeping generalisations pertaining to the voting tendencies of particular demographics are accurate. This by-election poses a genuine challenge for the Green politics: how do they convince the electorate that they’re not that radical, while maintaining a platform that clearly proposes a radical agenda.
I think Bird may need to substantiate the assertion that the Greens in Fremantle ‘aren’t far-left’. If the most radical members of a radical party don’t reside in that party’s heartland, where exactly are they?
Why do they need to? Fremantle would contain more radicals than say, the federal seat of Cunningham.
Possibly to get enough votes to win, and not just in Fremantle. As I understand the Greens’ agenda, they seek more widespread political support, although I’m happy to be corrected by someone who is certain that they would be satisfied to remain a fringe group in Australian politics. I think, with full awareness of the value of one small person’s opinion, that failure to do so will ensure that they fail to achieve much more than a ‘roll of one’.
The point that conservative voters will tend to opt for Labor rather than the Greens is well made, although I would construe this as negative voting behaviour, i.e. voting for a candidate/party according to distaste for other alternatives. Such negative behaviour may favour the Greens if enough Labor supporters feel disconnected from the preselection process/party decision making etc. If the Greens feel that this will be sufficient to get them over the line, then perhaps they don’t need to promote a more moderate image that will secure waivering Labor voters.
I vote Green. At a national vote of 9% at the last federal election in the Senate, they are not a fringe group. They are a minor political party who are likely to hold the balance of power in the Senate after the next federal election. As for what you construe, yes i’d prefer they remain a minor party rather than challenge the two major parties, as power corrupts. I vote for the Greens based on the fact they are the only socially progressive party in Australian politics.
Yes, but the issue I’m addressing I guess has more to do with the electoral strategy of the Greens political party, which may or may not align with your preference that they remain a minor party (a term I’m happy to substitute for fringe group for the sake of avoiding what may become a semantic debate).
If their strategy is to remain a minor party – a strategy that has not ensured representative longevity for any party except the Country/National party in the past – then by all means may they retain their image as a radical party.
But wouldn’t you agree the Greens were a fringe group in the 80s/90s rather than today? Would you call the Democrats a fringe group rather than a political party, back in the day?
“I vote for the Greens based on the fact they are the only socially progressive party in Australian politics”
Self delusional crap from self appointed messiahs.
I thought I’d implied I’m not particularly interested in getting into this? If it makes you feel better to do so, please imagine my side of the argument and carry on by yourself.
I am interested in part of your rationale for voting Green, to the extent that you think that they should remain a minor party because power corrupts. According to your preference, as a Green voter, does this mean that the party should preclude itself from ever entering into a coaltion government, should it ever attain the requisite electoral support to hold a lower house seat?
I’m saying that I prefer to support the socially progressive minor party, such as the Greens or Democrats. They have the final say on legislation in a BoP Senate. If there were first past the post voting, i’d be voting Labor. But in a system such as ours, I count my vote as who I vote in the Senate, the more crucial place for legislation. I prefer Labor government with Green influence than a Greens government – I do not trust them for that. Having said that, I vote for the Green candidate in the lower house anyway, just to contribute to the Green tally, knowing they won’t win the seat but still shows Green presence.
I might not be a “true” Green. I’d have supported the dems back in the day.
The ‘keeping it holy’ thread by chance happens to contain discussion on PR v non PR for the House.
Thanks for that. I think you illustrate the argument I’m making very well.
Neither you nor I can say if it is the Greens’ strategy to win enough lower house seats in any parliament to allow them to either form a coalition or govern in their own right, although the experience of places like Tasmania would suggest that it is. If your perception of the party, as a Greens voter, is that they cannot be trusted with government what hope have they got of attracting suspicious soft-left Labor and Liberal voters (with ‘left’ used relative to the respective spectrums of each party).
You mention the Democrats, and, again, I suggest that this illustrates my point. If the Greens’ strategy is only as ambitious as the Democrats was, history suggests that they will eventually go the same way. But for their strategy to aspire for more than this will require changing the perception that they cannot be trusted with the big decisions of government, and this has to do with becoming more moderate and *gasps* compromising.
Sure, the Greens have come some way since the 80s, but if they aspire to greater heights there could be no better opportunity to address their image problems in Western Australia than at this by-election. That is their challenge.
Just because one doesn’t want to see a party forming government, does not mean they do not support them in the Senate. But their influence taking up the gasping hole in left-wing politics is somewhat of a good pressure on Labor to not go too far right.
People tend to vote minor parties in by-elections, partly because they can send a message to one or both major parties, as it’s an election for their seat until the next general election, and their vote will not decide who forms government.
OK, so, hypothetically speaking:
The Greens have a strategy of winning enough lower house seats to at least be considered a coalition partner. In order to achieve this they pursue a more moderate campaign style, in which they position themselves as a party to vote ‘for’, as opposed to a party through which to vote ‘against’ the major parties (that is, they stop actively courting the ‘protest vote’).
Given that you have said you would not want the Greens to form government, would you still vote for them in these circumstances?
What I was saying sounded corrupt and undemocratic was the idea of paying to go to functions where government ministers are the major atraction (I presume that is what the 500 club is).
That is indeed correct.
Bule, no I would not want coalition governments of any sort. They are inherantly unstable with conflicting interests (LNP excluded, as the coalition is very very tight in the lower). I prefer a two party system in the lower.
Bule, those are interesting questions. My response is that you seem to be ignoring the factor of time. I believe that over time many Green policies that currently seem very radical will become more mainstream. It’s already happened with quite a few policies, and I think it will happen with more.
Whether this will eventually allow us to become a contender for government, or simply take us from 9% to 15-20% I don’t know, although I’m certainly one who is hopeful of the first answer than the second. Part of this will depend on whether we stick to our currently radical policies or, as they become mainstream, move on to policies that would now be considered even more radical.
I’d also note that even as a committed Green I wouldn’t want to see us in government right now, except in Tasmania. This is because I don’t think any party can be ready for government one election after having only 2% of the seats in parliament. I also don’t think the Labor party is close enough to us to make a coalition viable. However, if we steadily expand I think there is a real chance that one day we will be ready to win government in our own right, or there will be a coalition partner with whom we can work.
FS, if what the Greens tell us about the state of the world is true, how much time do you think you have?
I wouldn’t suggest that you could possibly be in government now, the numbers just aren’t there. Even if you win this by-election, progressive parties will be no closer to government. Indeed, given the aversion of both Greens members and voters to a coalition with Labor, arguably progressive parties will be further away from government than they are now.
Whatever the merits might be of targeting ethnic group demographics, Mr Tagliaferri clearly thinks it’s an important part of his potential success:
‘Fremantle Mayor Peter Tagliaferri accuses deputy over Italian club’
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,25320812-5017005,00.html
Bule, there is indeed a very high danger that the Greens will be elected into government only when it is too late and the world has gone to hell in a handbasket. However, I frankly think there are not a lot of alternatives to us keeping trying to grow with policies that will save the world, and hope we’ll get there in time. The idea that the ALP (let alone the coalition) will ever take the steps needed is now completely laughable so, in the words of the inspiration for one half of my handle “what can you do but go on?”
Full candidate list and ballot paper order now added – see above.
So, who’s going to preference who? Will the Greens gain pref’s from Zagami (as a former Lib candidate he seems to be the likely lightening rod for Liberal voters, especially if he makes it well known). At this stage I’m assuming that the CEC CDP & FFP will all pref the ALP as seeing the Greens as part of the communist conspiracy (along with Prince Phillip etc). Wainwright I would expect to preference the Greens, and the rest I don’t know. The other question of course is will all these candidates have people on polling booths or even pre-poll?
Well then, it’s mystery meat google time…
Rosemary Lorrimar (without the ‘Anne’) was the CDP candidate in Willagee in 2005. Strange, considering the CDP have their own candidate. Between Lorrimar and the CDP and FF candidates from 2008, there’s a mess of god-botherers there.
According to Wikipedia, a Steve Boni was the Labor candidate in Roe in 2001, and got 16.2% to come fourth – Ross Ainsworth for the Nats won with a 20% margin over One Nation (Anthony Fels came third for the Libs). Since Labor tend to run candidates from Perth who can’t find Esperance on a map (hint hint, Labor: it pisses off the locals), it’s quite possibly the same guy.
As an aside, I don’t know why they even bother to calculate Labor in the 2pp down there. In Eyre / Roe, recent margins have been Lib 3.6% v Nat (2008), Lib 5.6% v Nat (2005), Nat 19.2% v ONP (2001) and Nat 12.0% v Ind (some guy called Shearer, 1996).
The other mystery meat independent, Nik Varga, is probably the real estate agent who advertises on a heap of bus stops around Willetton. Catch the circle route, you’ll see what I’m talking about. I guess he’ll catch a few % of Liberal vote, then. Anyone who bothers to vote for a real estate agent will probably put the anti-development Carles last, but he’ll get the donkey vote too so that’ll be hard to spot. Come to think of it, that favours Tagliaferri too.
It’ll be interesting to see how much vote Jan ter Horst gets. He gets plenty of publicity (in the Herald anyway) for that crazy house of his. If he bothers with a HTV I bet it won’t favour the mayor, which means a couple more % for Carles.
Good work, Bird. Quite possibly Labor want to run third in Eyre/Roe, as they then get to deliver preferences to the Nats.
Zagami to preference the Greens:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/17/2546129.htm
William, here is the permanent link to the ABC News report you mentioned in your update
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/04/17/2546305.htm
And is that Young William taking notes next to the good Mayor ?
It certainly looks a lot like him. Thanks for pointing out the link.
Np
And who is that top level ALP Insider ???????????????? 
Careful there Taylor. At the 2008 election, FF prefs went (using WAEC data here):
109 Grn, 89 Lib, 60 CDP, 58 ALP
All over the place, but a fair amount to the Greens – double Labor. Did they even have a HTV card?
Call me a pedant, but she actually ran once against Kim Edward Beazley. And that was in the 1970s.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/candidates/t.txt
> Taboni, Rosemary Anne: Fremantle WA 1972, Senate WA 1974 1975
So on balance is Labor going to get a better deal on preferences? Anything unexpected?
The CEC are global warming deniers who have lately concluded the Greens are the source of all evil because we invented the idea of global warming (along with Prince Phillip) as an excuse to exterminate most of the world’s population. I think we can be fairly sure they’ll put us last.
Without wanting to sound like a humourless prat, I’d note there are a lot more Greens members with science degrees than with diplomas in homeopathic ionic therapy or its like. In fact the proportion of Greens with science degrees is an order of magnitude higher than either Labor or Liberal.
To answer Oz’s question – I’d say Zagami’s will be the only preferences that really matter. The others won’t have a lot of votes, and those they do will probably not follow the HTV card all that tightly.
I wouldn’t talk up Zagami’s vote getting powers either. These sort of candidates often tank in crowded by-elections. To take two examples from last year:
* James Langley (ALP candidate for Lyne in 2007) got 4.9% as an independent in the Port Macquarie by-election
* Mary Brewerton (ALP candidate for Mayo in 2007) got 2.5% as an independent in the Mayo by-election
Though they try to stand as a defacto party candidate in the absence of a real one, the evidence suggests that the voters simply don’t know who they are or what they represent.
But apparently Zagami has some kind of profile.
Langley had no profile in the electorate.
Brewerton’s vote does indicate that being the former party candidate is no guarantee of a strong vote as an independent when one party sits out an election, but there are counter examples – Gippsland West springs to mind.
It’s worth noting that Labor wouldn’t have got a big vote in Port Macquarie even if they had run – they only got 9% in 2007, and while the winning independent didn’t quite have Oakshot’s popularity, I doubt an endorsed Labor candidate would have got above 15%.
In the case of Mayo most Labor voters either went for the Greens or Di Bell. The question is whether there is someone other than Zagami who can attract the Liberal voters like that. Presumably many of the candidates think they can, but at this distance I would think Zagami would have the most appeal.
In some by-elections supporters who don’t have their preferred party running just stay home. With the daylight saving referendum on I doubt that will happen. Some will vote informal, but I think most of the Liberal votes will be divided amongst the independents FF and CDP getting some. It’s possible another independent will outpace Zagami as the main attractor for Liberal votes, but nothing reported so far makes that likely.
Excellent point, that. By the way – the 2008 election was notable for so many people staying home. Would it be plausible for more people to vote in the by-election than the general election, bearing in mind the DLS referendum’s on?
I reckon Zagami’s the only third candidate with a realistic shot… I’ll tip him to get 15-20%, taken off Labor (split the Italian vote, however much of that there is). I would’ve picked Tagliaferri to get a primary vote majority or fairly close, but Zagami changes that – he’s high-profile for many of the same reasons. Say… 15% Zagami, 10% all others (including the real estate agent from Willetton who’ll get the donkey vote), 40% Labor, 35% Greens?
Also, an interesting booth to look at the results of will be the one in East Freo that usually votes Liberal… should be a good insight into what happens to the Liberal voters without their party.
I’ve found something else:
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/local_government/elections/elect_results.php?local_id=75&location=2005%20Ordinary%20Election&council_name=Fremantle&elect_id=49
Carmelo Zagami ran as a councillor in the Fremantle city election, in East Ward (White Gum Valley), and got 18%; he lost out to Brad Pettitt (35%) and John Dowson (22%) – turnout about 50%. That’s about the vote the Liberals got last year at the White Gum Valley booth (they did particularly badly there and Labor did particularly well; by my calcs, Labor won the booth on 2pp vs the Greens). By the way, Pettitt was the Greens candidate in Riverton in 2005, who’s well known for sustainability stuff at Murdoch uni / his house / wherever.
I wonder if Zagami might actually perform better than had he been an officially endorsed Liberal candidate, the way the State government is traveling at the moment.
I couldn’t say for sure, but perhaps someone more familiar with the area could clear up whether Liberal supporters there are of the Wet or Dry (to the extent that these terms still apply) variety. If Wet, as I would imagine, then Barnett’s foray into immigration matters and the threat to the Office of Crime Prevention, for example, might have been able to be used against him. As an ‘Independent’ they are not.
Well, Alfred Cove is next door (to the Liberal-voting bits in East Freo anyway), and a great example of a ‘green tory’ won three hard-fought elections in a row there, so I’d say wet-ish.
Barnett’s comments on the latest refugee ship would’ve probably put a bullet into the Libs’ campaign had they been running, but they aren’t, so I don’t imagine it’s even on their radar.
Interesting development…
The Australian Services Union is considering giving their support to Adele Carles instead of Tagliaferri.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuId=77&ContentID=138018
Things aren’t quite working out as well as Tagliaferri might have hoped. First his Deputy came out and attacked his green credentials and now this.
I think if the Greens did win the by-election then they would have a good chance at the next state election. The Greens only missed out by a few hundred votes from overtaking the Liberals so if they were elected they would have an incumbents advantage to help get ahead of the Liberals. Carles would have even better chance of re-election if she was made leader.
Random fact about the 2008 election in Fremantle.
The Greens got the most Family First preferences after their candidate was excluded.
I probably should have included this like in my previous post.
http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/documents/state/2008/2008%20LA%20Results.pdf
Interesting article in The West:
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=54&ContentID=138596
It suggests that Tagliaferri’s recent conversion to the ALP and the fact that he’s run against Labor candidates while directing preferences to the Liberals will come back to bite him.
Whether Ms Belben is indicative of a trend or simply an isolated case remains to be seen.
The article also says -
The “group of unions” part is interesting, thought it was only the ASU. Be interesting to see if they follow through. But the fact that they’re publicly contemplating it is already a negative for the ALP.
Oz, no one has yet, to my viewing, named any other unions involved in campaigning against the Labor Party. Whether that’s because it is so far only rumour mongering or because unions are not yet willing to go on the record is not clear. Perhaps someone closer to the action may be able to name and shame.
What is clear is that the ASU is not an affiliated union of the Labor Party. It’s Railway Division is, but not the broader union. The State School Teachers Union also is not affiliated, nor the Nurses Federation or the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance. Perhaps some or all of these form the ‘group’, although it would be unusual for the MEAA to take any position.
Of course, the fact that it is a non-affiliated union campaigning against Labor doesn’t sit as well with the ‘divided party’ line that Murray appears to want to push. The real story will be when/if an affiliated union splits to oppose Tagliaferri.
I see that the Western Patriot has today repeated the assertion that ‘unions’ are mobilizing against Tagliaferri, but again have not cited any examples other than the ASU. It’s time for people putting this line about to start providing evidence of a widespread union anti-Tagliaferri campaign.
This is the media we’re talking about…
The funny thing about the Western Patriot is that their first article on the topic was essentially a ringing endorsement of Tagliaferri and treated Carles like a joke candidate. Now they reckon Tagliaferri’s going no where and “Green Adele Carles seems to be gathering momentum”.
The site is a joke.
From today:
From April 10:
Those two statements are not necessarily mutually exclusive.
No they’re not, but when you read the articles you note the hilarity.
As I already mentioned, the first one suggests The Greens are clueless and Tagliaferri’s got it in the bag. In the second one, Labor’s unprepared, divided and has stuffed up where as The Greens have got everything going for them.
I find it hard to reconcile those two positions.
Similar thoughts had crossed my mind. To be fair, though, issues of division have only emerged in the past week or so.
Given that this by-election was, to refer to William’s opening post, one of the worst-kept secrets in town, there can be no excuses if Labor was as unprepared as the WP appears to suggest. It would indicate that beyond the lessons of the 2008 election regarding preselection Labor had failed to heed the recommendations of the Ray report regarding organizational management.
Of course, it gets pretty tough to be well organized if you haven’t any troops on the ground. All the plans in the world mean nothing if there is no way to implement them.
Surely there’s at least more Labor members in Fremantle than Greens members. The Labor party would have waaaaaaay more money as well.
You’re probably right on both counts, the issue appears to be that local Labor party members are either refusing to campaign or actively campaigning for other candidates. It’s probably reasonable to suggest that Greens members from across the State will be more motivated to actively campaign in Fremantle than would be the case for Labor members. However, your point that there’s a bigger pool for Labor to draw from is a good one and will no doubt ensure that there are sufficient people at the booths come election day.
If this is the case (and we don’t know if it is besides that one lady) then I think that’s a much bigger and more important story than whether unaffiliated unions (who cares about them?) discuss endorsing another candidate.
Yes, quite right. The basis for considering that there may be a broader trend comes from the Western Patriot again, which reports that:
“Emails and letters have inundated ALP branch members throughout the State begging for campaign assistance.”
Well I was one of the members who got that letter (which William posted above), even though I’m in Swan Hills
McGinty now has better things to do
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,25403756-2761,00.html
(although he isn’t quite a former MLA)
Yesterday I posted the following invitation to the Western Patriot to substantiate the assertion that ‘unions’ are set to campaign against Tagliaferri:
‘WP has reiterated the claim in the West that ‘unions’, plural, are campaigning against Tagliaferri.
‘To date, I’ve only seen the ASU named as potentially campaigning in the by-election. Which other unions, not just union members/activists acting without executive authorisation, are involved?’
This question remains in moderation.
The comment has now been approved, but no answer to the question has been provided.
According to today’s West, Julian Grill thinks Tagliaferri should be kicked out of the ALP for joining the 500 Club – similar reason to the way he got kicked out (donating to the Nats). Also, Mike Dean from the police union loves him, and the CFMEU don’t.
I’m not in WA – what is the “500 club”?
The 500 Club is a Liberal fundraising organization.
Are there quotes from the Police Union and CFMEU in the story? The latter not liking him is a little different from campaigning against him, although arguably going on the record against him (if that’s what they’ve done) is a form of campaigning.
And the reason Tagliaferri joined was bcause even as Mayor of Fremantle, he wasn’t able to access Government Ministers.
As opposed to Julian Grill making a donation to the Nats on behalf of a client he was lobbying for. And also Tagliaferri wasn’t an ALP member at the time.
As I said earlier in this thread, the idea of people (especially an important mayor) having to join a party fund-raising club to get access to government ministers is very corrupt.
There is one problem with this line that Tagliaferri is putting out about why he joined the 500 Club.
He became Mayor of Fremantle in 2001, the same year as the Gallop Government was elected.
The State election that year was held in February. Local government elections are traditionally in May in Western Australia. So unless there was an election in January for some unknown reason, he became Mayor in the first months of the Labor government.
Perhaps he became a member before he became Mayor, which puts in question the argument that he couldn’t get access as Mayor of Fremantle. There would be nothing unusual about a simple local councillor not being able to get access to State Ministers, so maybe he sought another avenue.
Alternatively, if he joined the 500 Club upon becoming Mayor, which Labor Government Ministers was he only able to obtain access to by joining the elite fundraising organization of the then Opposition?
Unless he joined the 500 club upon the election of the Liberal Government.
That’s true Frank. Do you know when he joined?
Nope, but I’m assuming from his published comments about being unable to access Liberal Govt Mnisters, it would’ve been post Sept 2008.
OK, well if that’s the case (i.e. your assumption is correct and we take his comments at face value) my comments don’t apply.
New update added. Note the bit about the timing of Tagliaferri’s 500 Club membership. From The West: “Mr Tagliaferri, the mayor of Fremantle, said he joined the 500 Club late last year after complaining that he could not get access to Barnett Government ministers.” Note also that Gary Gray was a member in his Woodside days.
Well you’ve got your “unions” now.
I think we know why the Police Union supports Tagliaferri.
Is it not very stupid for Tagliaferri to be campaigning primarily on environmental issues? Not only do the Greens and Carles have a long-term profile on the issue, but as I understand it Labor in WA hasn’t been very strong on the issue and Tagliaferri himself has done little and is being attacked for it by his Deputy.
Well there goes his chance of getting any Liberal Votes with 3 out of his 4 policy positions, while it seems Nick Varga is being the Clayton’s Liberal, the Liberal you vote for where there is no liberal candidate.
[Note also that Gary Gray was a member in his Woodside days.] He was probably a member as a Woodside employee, rather than a personal member.
Oh and it ain’t easy to become a member either.
http://www.the500club.com.au/Membership/tabid/57/Default.aspx
And yes, I Know I just contradicted myself – but I only noticed the individual membership clause later – though I notice on the Victorian 500 Club aren’t as restrictive on membership.
http://www.500club.com.au/user/documents/ApplicationForm.pdf
Heh – The Western Patriot has already corrected the spelling error I ribbed them about half an hour ago.
But aren’t there ALP Voters who support the Environment ? The Greens don’t have a Monopoly on the issue, despite yours and Bob Brown’s best efforts
Second time they’ve changed something on their website due to comment on this blog.
Of course not. I’m not suggesting he has no right too but that politically it doesn’t look like a very good move.
And I stated that this was not only because of The Greens “profile” on the issue (not monopoly) but because of previous Labor and Tagliaferri experience in the area.
Don’t be so defensive.
The full page ad in the Gazette by Nik Varga reeks of funding by someone bigger. It is extremely Faux Liberal and simply states at the bottom “Authorised by Nik Varga, Riverton”.
There is a very similar full page ad in the Gazette by Steve Boni which equally reeks of funding by someone bigger. It is extremely Faux Labor and simply states at the bottom “Authorised by Steve Boni, Fremantle”.
Both candidates state supporting the North Port Quay development as one of their issues.
How peculiar.
And aren’t they in breach of the WA Electoral Act by not listing the fuill address of Authorising person ?
I hadn’t noticed the ad for Boni – I’ve added a link to a scan in the post. Frank, the Electoral Act requires that an “address” be listed, and I wouldn’t have thought the name of a suburb would have cut it in the normally understood meaning of the word. But who knows.
The Act definately says a full address be supplied – I should know – I got the RPH Clicians in trouble at the State Election for having no authorisation whatsoever
And for printed flyers and how to vote cards it also requires the Printer to be mentioned – I Got Jeanette Radisich’s HTV cards in Pearce pulled in the 2004 Federal Election cos there was no Printer listed 
OK, according to the AEC Information sheet on Political Advertising – which I’m assuming is also the template used by the WAEC it clearly states that it should be a Street Adress – no PO Box addresses permitted.
http://www.aec.gov.au/pdf/backgrounders/15/EB_15_Electoral_Advertising07.pdf
Not so fast Frank. The green tories can go for Zagami, the John Howard fan club for Varga, and the automatons who panic at the thought of somebody who isn’t in a party will probably end up with either Tagliaferri (must.. vote.. party…) or Carles (must.. vote.. not.. Labor…). I’ll tip Zagami to get triple whatever Varga does, because hey – it’s Freo. Won’t be too many votes for some spiv real estate agent from the other end of Leach Hwy.
One thing Zagami doesn’t have is the financial backing of NPQ – he said so in an article in the Herald last week.
It may be going out on a limb here but there’s a strong whiff that the NPQ developers have set up Varga and Boni and are paying for their ads. Varga’s almost goes so far as to breach copyright from the Libs. The “Steve Boni” text with the bolder font for “Boni” directly parodies ALP ads from last time. It seems clear to me that the same graphic designer did both (and breached the electoral act in idenical fashion for both).
And… given that Varga has mentioned preferences (unusual for a blow-in independent) this suggests he’ll have people on booths. I wouldn’t be very surprised to see a small army of “volunteers” in blue shirts squaring off against a small army of red shirts in this “contest”.
Let’s see.
I retract everything I said about Tagliaferri’s membership of the 500 Club.
The CEPU development is certainly interesting. It stops short of active campaigning for an alternative candidate (something which the rules of the Labor Party forbid), but is certainly bigger news than the ASU ‘campaign’ (I haven’t heard anything about the outcome of the executive meeting – did they actually resolve to campaign for Carles?).
The WA Electoral Commissioner says he’s expecting a big turnout for the daylight saving referendum, which could minimise the normal lower turnouts for by-elections.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/01/2557881.htm
I wonder if anyone’s asked the candidates whether or not they’re for or against?
Ahem… well, presumably they’re one or the other. Apologies to English teachers everywhere.
Link should be up for a tanscripot only on either Monday or Tuesday – and that report was almost a 3 minute campaign ad for the Greens – and that poor dog with the Greens Stickers – I hope they weren’t stuck onto it’s fur ?
Yep, though I’m wondering how many people are Fremantle electors and not visitors from outside of the Electorate.
I’d be watching the News on Sunday Night to see what they report from the May Day Rally – can you youtube it ?
William, it’s the Fly By Night. I oughta know, I used to live 10 min walk from there.
Sounds like I need to head down there and grab a copy of the Chook – sounds interesting.
Frank… if you’re worried about the vox pop showing folk from out of Freo, that’s only bad for Labor – considering the Greens scored so much better in Freo than anywhere else last time (except maybe the Coolbellup booth in Willagee), you’d want to hope the strong love for the Greens is local – otherwise Fran Logan’ll need to watch himself and even the bloke who comes after Carpenter’ll need to be careful.
Of course it is. I myself live 10 minutes’ walk from there right now. Who did I last see there? Emiliana Torrini, I think. Or maybe Cat Power.
Are we going to have a Daylight Saving Referendum section on here that is on the same date?
Hmmm, last thing I saw at the Fly by Night was John Cale…
The Sunday Times has a “survey” of 200 voters who went 106 for Tagliaferri and 94 for Carles.
Obviously the survey is a bit of a joke but the article has some decent information in it.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,25418853-5017005,00.html
If Carles gets up, The Greens will get very excited and say things like “We’re the third force” etc. Others will say that the only time they can get themselves elected is in by-elections when a major party isn’t standing.
I think the difference between Fremantle, and say Cunningham, is that Fremantle is a seat that The Greens actually had a good chance of winning at the last state election. I reckon if Carles gets up she’ll be in a very good position to win at the next state election.
Channel 9 also ran with the May Day Rally and pointed out that Tagliaferri preferenced the Libs in the 1991 By Election which he stood as an Independent – oh and did I see a studious Bludger in the file vision on the ABC ?
Thanks Frank – I saw the Nine report, but didn’t take note of whether I was watching Seven or Nine so didn’t mention it. Have now.
Seven just covered the main industrial message in regards to GFC. There was no mention of the By-Election.
Latest update from the Western Patriot:
http://westernpatriot.com.au/?p=1000
It has now been ten days since the West Australian reported that the ASU executive would meet to discuss actively campaigning against Tagliaferri, but no subsequent report that I have seen has said that the executive has taken this position.
Has anyone else seen any such report? Were ASU members wearing pro-Greens t-shirts on May Day?
ASU handed out thousands of anti-Tagliaferri flyers on the day.
Significant verbal stoush was witnessed.
Expect round two to follow any day now.
Thanks for the news SgtThursday. I note that they were ‘anti-Tagliaferri’. Did they endorse any candidate?
New update added.
Thanks William.
Interesting that Tagliaferri’s pamphlet features more green than Greens candidate Carles’ ad in the Herald for May Day.
Have a look at that flyer… ‘lead carobate’? Also, ’stand-up for Freo hospital’s emergency dept’ – they’re gonna start employing comedians there? Must’ve been put together in a bit of a rush.
Well spotted, that person. Personally, I prefer lead cocoa-ate, can’t stand carob. Hey, maybe there’s room for me in the line-up down at the emergency ward?
This may be true William, and combined with the ALP’s newfound support for and from Family First, the DLP, the CEC and the CDP, this may be enough to drag them over the line but at what cost to their brand.
Every decision they have made at this election has pushed more voters (and members) over to the Greens around the State and around the Country. The by-election was theirs to lose and they are doing their best to do so.
Regardless of the result on May 16, the Greens have already won.
ps Watch for more news from the Union movement.
Wasn’t the christian parties kerfuffle (1) a few years ago and (2) in Victoria? And why include the CEC? They’re not christians, they’re Laroucheite strange-a-zoids (although the candidate here seems different, a homeopath… I wonder what his story is). Anyway, Labor seems to be running on local issues, like the lead exports. FF’s prefs will probably go mostly to the Greens and the CDP’s about half and half, as per the last election but without the Libs.
If Carles gets up, she’ll be sharing the balance of power, for what it’s worth. It’ll be interesting to see how the Liberals deal with it – they’re running a minority government with the Nats and three independents (including John Bowler), so they may well try to get her onside. (The fairly similar Kiwi govt’s done something like that recently, despite the fact they don’t quite need the Greens, so it wouldn’t be that outlandish.) Maybe some greener than usual Liberal policies, in exchange for her vote? It hasn’t really come up yet considering the Liberal govt’s stayed out of the by-election and seems to be ignoring it, but it will if she wins.
But the ALP have preferenced FF at number 2 in the Freo by-election and have put the Greens at number 10 behind the CDP, the DLP and the CEC. While it is unlikely to result in the election of any these candidates it does demonstrate the willingness of the ALP to compromise their principles in order to try and get elected.
This, via Adele Carles’ website, linked from an ad on Facebok (a useful ad link? fancy that!):
http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/793/40833
It’s a Green Left Weekly article about the by-election. Calling Tagliaferri a property investor before mayor shows where their politics are at (well left of the Greens), but the very odd thing… they don’t mention the Socialist Alliance candidate at all, which is very weird for a trot paper. Must be a different sub-subfaction of Socialist Archipelago.
Probably because the candidate isn’t offically a Socialist Alliance Candidate, but rather is running as an independent.
Oh and you can follow Adeler Carles on Twitter.
http://twitter.com/adelecarles
Oh Dear, It seems that Adele Carles’ Wordpress Blog doesn’t has breached the electoral Act by not having the apprpriate Authorisation details which is required on ALL political advertising, be it print or online.
http://adelecarles.wordpress.com/
That should read appears to have breached the WA Electoral Act. – scrap the word doesn’t
Just got back from the very entertaining candidates’ forum. Tough crowd for Tagliaferri, which I guess is no surprise – lots of very vocal lefties and people otherwise aggrieved with his mayoralty. More surprisingly, a very well mobilised Christian Democratic Party presence. Inevitably lacking in people in the middle. Will post audio if I can work out how.
Post it to Youtube and if you have pics do it as a Slideshow
If the Godbotherers can make Guy Sebastian Australian Idol, the Christan Dems can do the above
Bugger the audio William, what was your opinion of the candidates and their perfomance?
Damn, I knew I should have gone. I thought about it, but Freo’s a bit far to go to hang around with politicians.
Frank: good luck dragging that to court. The electoral commission probably haven’t even figured out the concept of blogs yet… as they’re pretty close to being a personal website, and any of the links to Greens press releases would have the correct authorisation, it probably wouldn’t stand up in court. There’ll probably be an overhaul of the law in the next few years to take in things like that, Facebook or Twitter, but these days she wouldn’t have to worry as it’s undefined under the law.
See above, Luke. Audio buggered anyway.
Perhaps the absence of “people in the middle” demonstrates the truth of the comments made by Paul Murray in relation to tags being deserted by the Labor faithful. If he cannot inspire anyone to come and and support him in a forum such as this, then what chance of doing that on May 16?
I was at the Fremantle debates last night, my thoughts are that Adele Carles out shone the other candidates, Sam Wainwright was articulate as was Julie Hollet. However, the fundamentalist message that Julie Hollet is expousing is quite frankly SCARY!!! I felt a little sorry for Peter Tagliaferri, not because there was no Labour presence, but because the Labor supporters that were there were too embarassed by his performance to be vocal. Mayor Tagliaferri’s weakest moment was admitting he did not know Labor Policy when queried by the unions, not surprising given that he has just joined the Labor Party. On the other hand, Adele Carles articulated Green’s policy incredibly well and clearly has the support of the party behind her.
I’m sure you’re right on the first count at least, Luke.
Yes, good call – I should have mentioned that in my review.
Thanks for the report, William, and comments from those who attended.
What is your estimate of the number of attendees? What proportion of attendees would you estimate were existing supporters rather than potential undecided voters?
North Port Quay developers paying candidates to preference Labor ahead of The Greens.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuId=77&ContentID=140417
That has to be illegal.
Send in the police.
Oz, the important words missing from your summary are ‘Candidate claims’, or ‘Candidate links’ words the West managed to include.
This is an unproven assertion that does not yet even reach the status of an allegation.
Certainly, if this is a genuine assertion it should be reported to the CCC.
Do you know about the Fremantle election rally on tomorrow (Sat 9 May) at 12 noon in front of the Town Hall?
http://socialistallianceperth.blogspot.com/2009/05/fremantle-election-rally.html
Speakers include:
Sam Wainwright (Socialist Alliance candidate for Fremantle)
Adele Carles (Greens Candidate for Fremantle)
Paul Burlinson (Australian Services Union)
Sanna Andrew (Aboriginal Rights Coalition)
New thread.