Comments on: Tasmanian upper house elections: May 2

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 07:45:17 +0000

Part II of preview now up at http://www.tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/ . Should be up at Tasmanian Times tomorrow.

Although we have nominated Dean in Windermere and Laycock in Mersey as favourites, in either case others cannot be ruled out – it is not like the last few years of LC elections where we have been able to say that a certain candidate will definitely win.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 00:20:50 +0000

Generally I’ve colour-coded independents as yellow.

Although in the UK and Canada (where the LibDems are yellow and the NDP’s orange is too close) I use purple or gray.

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Fri, 24 Apr 2009 09:56:34 +0000

Unless I’ve missed one somewhere, the last independent to win a federal lower house seat in Tassie was William McWilliams (Franklin) who won as an independent in 1928 and 1929 and then died in office, having earlier held the seat as a member of various parties from 1903-22. Only other one I can find was King O’Malley who was one of those elected in 1901 when Tasmania was a single multi-member electorate.

Independent successes in state lower house seats are naturally much commoner. The most recent candidate elected as an independent was former Liberal MHR Bruce Goodluck in 1996.

By: Bird of paradox

Bird of paradox — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 08:30:05 +0000

Adam, re. your maps: is your colour scheme gonna change if the Greens start winning lower house seats? There’ll have to be a way of differentiating between Fremantle and Alfred Cove, or Sydney and Balmain, and the Greens probably have dibs on green. Same thing would happen if an independent won a LH seat in Tassie (that’s happened before, hasn’t it?).

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 07:42:08 +0000

If we’re gonna start showing off maps, I’ve also got a Google Earth map of the 2006 HA boundaries and the new 2009 LC boundaries at http://www.tallyroom.com.au/maps

I’m almost finished on the new boundaries for the House of Assembly and the House of Representatives.

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Thu, 23 Apr 2009 02:45:09 +0000

Very pretty. Elwick is probably red with blue spots or something – “independent Labor” as Terry Martin has been thrown out of the PLP, but I believe (someone correct me if I’m wrong) he remains a rank-and-file party member. If he stands again in 2010 it will be interesting to see if anyone wastes their time opposing him.

By: Adam in Canberra

Adam in Canberra — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 08:24:47 +0000

William you might note my beautiful map here
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/states/tas/tasmapsindex.shtml

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 03:33:02 +0000

There’s a tradition of Upper House “independents” being closet Liberals but it seems to have waned in recent years and quite a few of them are genuinely hard to pick. Wilkinson, Harriss and Dean are probably the most frequent recipients of the closet Liberal tag but as the stats show Dean has actually voted for quite a lot of government legislation recently.

It will be an interesting night. I’m expecting Aird to win easily but the other two are tricky to call.

By: feral sparrowhawk

feral sparrowhawk — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 02:35:31 +0000

Interesting to note that Deveson has moved from being fairly anti-Labor in his votes to the most pro-Labor of the independents in the last two years. I wonder if this is a result of his staunch support for the Pulp Mill.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 01:36:42 +0000

The fact that elections happen every year, not as a single lot, means that there is very little advantage in being in a party. Plus tradition means it’s difficult for a candidate to get anywhere if they run with a party, so party members tend to run as independents.

Also, I tend to think single-member electorates make voters more likely to vote for a popular local independent than a party. That is usually masked by the fact that single-member electorates on the mainland decide who forms the government, so voters vote with those issues in mind.