Seems Morgan are having one of their occasional weeks off. Plenty of federal preselection action to report, as the parties prepare contingencies for a potential early election:
• The Australian’s Michael Owen reports South Australian Labor is finalising its federal preselections, which “senior factional figures” link to a potential early election. Mia Handshin is keen to run again, either in a second tilt at Sturt or where Nicole Cornes failed in Boothby. Cornes herself has found an interesting new line of work as an industrial officer for the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, but is “unlikely to win preselection”. A “senior ALP figure” nonetheless claims she is a genuine future prospect. Owen also reckons Labor Senator Dana Wortley faces electoral oblivion through “moves to relegate her to an unwinnable third spot”, although it was from that unwinnable position that she actually won her seat in 2004.
• Institute of Public Affairs director John Roskam has withdrawn from the contest to succeed Petrio Georgiou as Liberal candidate for Kooyong. He has thrown his support behind industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto, who looms as a threat to merchant banker Josh Frydenberg’s long-held designs on the seat. Rick Wallace of The Australian reports Pesutto also has the support of Ted Baillieu, who angered the Frydenberg camp by attending a function they “claim was to support Mr Pesutto”. Wallace also notes the June preselection will be “one of the first carried out under the Liberal Party’s new constitution, which empowers all eligible members within a seat to vote instead of only specially chosen delegates”. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews is told that “many of them … will be swinging votes with a history of supporting Baillieu/Petro or at least having a significant amount of affection for them or an in-built objection to the recruiting enthusiasms of Joshua”.
• Another interesting preselection for the Victorian Liberals looms in the eastern suburbs seat of Deakin, where two former members are hoping to make a comeback. One is Phil Barresi, who lost the seat to Labor’s Mike Symon in 2007. The other is Ken Aldred, whose eccentric reign extended from 1990 until his preselection defeat by Barresi in 1996. Aldred won a preselection ballot in Holt ahead of the 2007 election, but it was overturned by wiser heads in the party. Rounding out the field of known contenders is Deanna Ryall, a “local businesswoman”. Labor holds the seat with a margin of 1.4 per cent.
• New Queensland Opposition Leader John-Paul Langbroek foreshadows a more “flexible” approach than his predecessor in negotiating fixed four-year terms, improving the prospects for a referendum on the matter during the current term. Langbroek says it is not a priority, but Anna Bligh has apparently put the matter “on the agenda”. A referendum in 1991 for unfixed four-year terms was defeated with a 51.2 per cent no vote.
• Antony Green on the slow death of the election night tally room:
The next South Australian election will be the first conducted without a tallyroom. Both Victoria and NSW have also decided not to hold tallyroms at state elections due in November 2010 and March 2011. These state decisions may yet play a part in deciding whether free to air broadcasters attend the next Federal tallyroom. There were serious noise problems in the tallyroom in 2007, Sky News already bases its coverage from studio, and hosting from a studio would save the ABC and other free-to-air broadcasters considerable amounts of money and allow greater use of studio technology.
• I am maintaining elsewhere progressively updated posts on two looming electoral events: the May 16 Fremantle by-election and May 2 Tasmanian upper house elections.
759 Comments
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Andrew Rixon sounds like just what the Libs need in one of their blue-riband seats, a complete nutter. I do hope they chose him.
In a question asked at the Rudd and the PNG PM press conference it was said that the WA premier had just stated that his budget would never go into deficit. Is this true and if so is he for real?
Here is his contact page:
http://www.andrewrixon.com.au/index.php?pr=Contact_Us
I believe Aspartame is the artificial sweetner used in Diet Coke.
I guess that means the W.A. premier is going to shut down a heap of schools and hospitals.
Or blame it all on Rudd and demand more federal funds
Yeah Adam, i was well aware of the potential for that to be misused and was intentionally brief. I just hope that people are responsible and sensible enough to resist that which you fear.
Or raise taxes to cover the shortfall in revenue.
He could also follo0w the path of the Texas Governor and refuse all Federal stimpac money and threaten to succeed from the Commonwealth! lol
They already tried that once, in 1933.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secessionism_in_Western_Australia
Diogs @ 616
“He’s not writing op-eds in the OO purporting an expertise on AGW”.
So you think posting here is the second eleven of op ed writers?
Someone here said how will the Libs use the flu epidemic against the govt. well their ABC is doing it for them with headlines like this
When you read the article this statement is what they are basing the headline on
Then the last half of the article goes on to show a completely different picture to their headline.
ABC are getting as bad as the Libs with their half truths and misleading headlines.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/28/2554504.htm?section=justin
Well, we saw the person who chooses the op ed pieces each day on Q&A a few months ago. She proved herself to be a total dunce who contributed absolutely nothing to the show. So the utter dreck published on those pages isn’t surprising when you get to see the lack of intellectual rigour behind the person who does the selecting.
Shows On,
Don’t pout just because they knocked you back.
This hasn’t actually occurred, but if it ever does, I’ll cherish it like a badge of honour.
vera
I was getting quite nervous that the ABC/Libs hadn’t attacked the response to the flu. Now I can rest easy.
Bule
I’ve got a friend who is an intensivist and is on all the CBR committees etc. He says SA is completely unprepared if it really hits the fan. We’re fine as long as it doesn’t get to Mexico City levels though.
Diogenes, glad to have been a help, no need to be anxious any longer
If it gets really bad in Mexico, they might be forced to quarantine the whole country to contain the disease and allow it to burn out which could take months. The Ruddster could call an early election thereby getting rid of Heff and BNeal in one move.
I thought the federal government has the stockpile, and will send it out to different states as necessary?
What’s an intensivist? Is it someone who is, like, really really intense?
Diogs,
Given that there are only a few confirmed diagnoses of the “Swine” flu and that the virus allegedly brought into Australia is similar to what is already around aren’t we going into “Pandemic” tabloid mode rather quickly.
I remember the good old days when flu was flu. You just caught it, let it run its journey, you recovered and got on with life.
Unfortunately H1N1 derivatives have evolved to be a lot nastier than that.
If only Australian members of the 4th estate (OO) could be honest enough to write about their failures. This assessment was bought on by the ridcule of CNBC and other media’s lack of coverage on the developing GFC.
http://coloradoindependent.com/27577/business-reporters-confess-news-sins-while-us-economy-collapsed
Not really. The deaths have only been in Mexico and there have been various speculations put forward for that. It does not appear to be all that deadly outside Mexico.
Shows On,
Wrong and rejected again. Another badge of honour??
Loved these two comments on the ABC article.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/28/2554504.htm
Anyone who gets off a plane with sniffles and who just has a common old cold will be reported as “suspected of having Swine Flu” by our hysterical media. By the end of the week they’ll be reporting 100s, just wait and see.
So much for all the rusted-on Liberals calling Kevin Rudd a socialist…
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2008/s2553890.htm
Has the virus mutated into a form which is only toxic to Mexicans?
Americans seem impressed with Republican, Senator Collins efforts to block the $900b part of the stimpac. 90 pages of comments so far in just one article panning her.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/27/gop-stripped-flu-pandemic_n_191732.html
Only “toxic boars”. Kevin Rudd should be careful!
Bob1234, our tax system is still the detritus from Howard’s reign. Only after Rudd’s tax review can we truly say that Rudd is a neo-liberal insofar as tax is concerned. Of course, Rudd will not raise taxes too much, but that’s due not to ideology but politics.
scorpio,
Good avoidance of all the usual cliches. Well done!
Isn’t it toxic bore?
ShowsOn
Tamiflu is only a tiny part of “preparedness”. I can’t even find out if it actually works on swine flu, and if so how well.
It’s more the number of patients who will need hospital beds, ventilators, doctors and nurses. There’s only a handful of people who have been measured up for those wacky masks that definitely stop you getting the flu from patients (those masks you see people wearing don’t do much after about 10 minutes.
Adam
An intensivist is an ICU physician.
GG
The mortality is 10% in Mexicans, so far. They might not have very good health care so we don’t know what it would be here. This flu IS different from normal flu. It has been killing young, healthy people whereas the normal flu only kills the very young, the very sick or the elderly.
Not sure whether to laugh, cry or throw up.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/opinion/28douthat.html?_r=1&hpw
667,
Obviously I’ve missed a few details on the SF stories. Sounds like some of the MP’s are stuck over there atm?
Not when it involves “swine” flu!
No doubt Diog knows more, but wouldn’t the deaths in Mexico and not elsewhere simply be explained by the slower progression rate of influenza compared to other “scarry” viruses like Ebola? Plus they say it seems to be responding to anti-viral drugs. So the non-Mexican cases may not have had time to advance to acute stages yet.
I thought there was a kind of “trade-off” in virus risk between communicability and chance/speed of your death. Viruses that develop very fast and kill people quickly are less likely to be spread a long way before detection and quarantine. Influenza might kill a far smaller % of victims, but becaues of its two week incubation period it can be spread to a lot more people in the mean time. So the overall death risk is high, because a lot more people get infected. Is that right Diog?
Tamiflu and Relenza work.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_flu_2009
Diogs,
Do you have any understanding of “normal” influenza death percentages and the profiles of the victims in Mexico? The information seems to be really scattered and confusing and the reporting is focussing on the pandemic aspect to the exclusion of other relevant facts.
Socrates
As always you are 100% right.
I should add that I’m NOT making a criticism that we aren’t prepared for a pandemic of swine flu. All these things are based on risk management. To spend an extra $1B on preparedness would almost always be a waste of money as it wouldn’t be needed. And if it really gets bad, the extra $1B would make bugger all difference. The reality is that we can’t afford to be prepared for all disasters and that we just have to play the odds.
Read the article. He is saying that if Cheney feels so strongly that torture was necessary, he should’ve been willing to defend that policy at an election.
I thought Tamiflu was effective against all H1N1 variants, because it acts against the neuraminidase section of the virus (the N part in H1N1), which very rarely undergoes beneficial mutation? My year 12 biology understanding is that it deactivates the enzyme that allows copies of the virus to break out of cells.
A good explanation here of why the virus has been causing more problems with younger, healthy people. Also it appears that flue injections “may” provide some degree of protection against this strain.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/04/28/2554815.htm?section=australia
This new GFC, it’s all the Neocon conspiracy. Not content with inflicting the world with the old GFC with their extreme unchecked capitalism, now the Neocon is inflicting the world with a new GFC (Great Flu Crisis). Especially to deflect the criticisms about the release of the torture memos. It’s all linked back to that great Unknown Unknown Known Known:
http://greenpagan.newsvine.com/_news/2009/04/27/2737925-flu-kills-the-torture-memos-rumsfeld-tamiflu-bioterror-genocide-etc
Yes, how convenience also that it “started” Mexhiho so the poor amigos can be blamed, again, for everything. The Amigos are NOT happy.
Ouch! I would hate to be injected with a “stove pipe” although sometimes the needles feel almost as big as that.
The Finnigans @ 694, LOL
bob and GG
I’ll look into that and talk to the ICU friend, who has dropped the ball completely on this one because he’s more interested in negotiating an acrimonious hospital contract.
Tamiflu can only be said to work once the data is in on the swine flu and it’s too early to say that ATM although it looks like it should work.
The Wikipedia article on Influenza is quite good. It suggests mortality rates for different strains of Influenza, whihc have varied greatly in Lethality. There are also a lot of measurement difficulties, because its hard ot estiamte how many of the population who aren’t medically treated contracted a disease. Here are some stats:
1918 Spanish Flu – 2% to 20% (including over 10% in young adults)
Usual Flu mortality – 0.1% (mostly the old and very young)
Also the mortality rate varies with treatment. The 1918 flu was 9% lethal to white British army officers, but 21% lethal to indian British soldiers (who got less treatment).
So if the Spanish one is killing 10% of hospitalised patients, that is pretty severe.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_outbreak_in_Mexico
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic
Dio, I know the quality of Wikipedia varies, please tell if any of the above is rubbish.
A good test is to see if it mentions Lyndon LaRouche anywhere.
Don’t you just love him?????
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