The Australian reports the latest bi-monthly NSW state Newspoll shows the Labor government continuing to narrow the gap after the post-mini-budget blowout to 59-41 reported in November-December. The Coalition now leads 53-47, down from 56-44 in January-February. Labor’s primary vote has struggled up to 33 per cent, up from 26 per cent in November-December and 30 per cent in January-February, while the Coalition is down two points to 40 per cent. Beyond that we’re only told that both Nathan Rees’s and Barry O’Farrell’s dissatisfaction ratings have “spiked” – Rees’s from 42 per cent to 46 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE: Graphic here. Rees’s approval rating is down three to 34 per cent, which is where it was in November-December. However, Barry O’Farrell’s disapproval rating (37 per cent) exceeds his approval (35 per cent) for the first time. O’Farrell has nonetheless narrowed the gap as preferred premier from 34-29 to 33-31.
79 Comments
the way the NSW govt has been (and is) travelling it really should be 65-35 to the coalition.
Seriously. WTF! NSW is doomed!
Maybe the only hope is a Green led coup d’état.
Mind you with a strong Public Service culture in NSW, any announcemnts by the coalition of Public Service cuts will harm any chance of a Liberal win.
Come on Liberals you can do it, this election can still be lost.
From looking a far 53-47 is an absolute ball tearer for NSW ALP!!!! With nearly 2 years until the election I’m tempted to take the juicy odds offered for an ALP win!!! The Tories are totally hopeless politically, it must stop I’m hurting too much from laughing at the hopless jokes the conservatives are. My God only 6 points between them mid term in NSW is an indictment on the Coalition.
My god. How could Labor possibly get 46% of the 2PP?
O’Farrell has got to go. The coalition need to get back in so that NSW Labor can finally clear out the deadwood and corruption.
Sorry, 47%.
This is a ridiculously poor result for the Coalition given what’s happened in the last few months.
I still think that the 2pp is slightly inflated for Labor as I think they will get less Greens preferences this time than in 2007, but even so, this is way closer than I expected.
Reality check guys: if these results were replicated on election day, the Coalition would win in a landslide.
Only if they’re determined to shoot themselves in the foot. What foolish opposition would make themselves the issue at a time when they hold an election winning lead?
David @ 9 I bet the ALP is encouraged and the Coalition despondent at these numbers. Yes if replicated on polling day it’s a win for the Coalition the fact it is at this point of the electoral cycle and given the prevailing view of the NSW government has got to worry the opposition
It’s the nature of polls to move around a bit. Certainly no cause for Coalition panic or Labor celebration.
The point is not that the Coalition would win on these figures but that many expect Labor to be reduced to a cricket team – and many think they deserve it as well.
Unfortunately for us, the Coalition doesn’t deserve to win any seats either.
It’s gone from 59-41 to 53-47. That’s very bad news for the coalition.
Not really, considering the coalition is on a 40% primary, with 33% for Labor. Where are the coalition going to get all these prefs from?
Nowhere, but remember NSW has optional preferencing. I’m suggesting that significantly more Greens and independent votes will exhaust in 2011 than did in 2007.
Yes, but of those who pref to the major parties, I suspect that the coalition couldn’t do any better on prefs than is given here.
The best hope for the ALP is that the Coalition implode and put somebody unelectable up as leader. Tony Abbot perhaps?
Never underestimate the capacity of the N.S.W Libs to stuff up their chances of winning an election, particularly if O’Farrell is still Opposition Leader in March 2011.
And if the economic situation improves in 2010 and Rudd showers the state with infastructure funding, that’ll help Nathan Rees too.
Of course the NSW Govt is inept, we all know that, but the Libs are yet to prove that they’d be any better.
Barry O’Farrell is on borrowed time – you watch Pru Goward position herself to be next liberal Premier of NSW.
If she takes the Coalition leadership, the NSW ALP is finished.
On the primaries, there is 13% for the Greens and 14% for the Others.
Who are the Others??? Surely the combined FFP and CDP vote can’t be that high???
Others always polls higher than what eventuates on election day. Especially if there’s no enthusiasm for either party.
Kit, I’d pay attention to Mike Baird as the next Liberal leader in N.S.W.
evan14, a corporate banker? You think that’s going to fly enough for NSW voters? They may as well stick to BO’F
In 1988 NSW Labor lost badly but they held enough key Sydney marginal seats; Kogarah, Ashfield, Waverley etc. to be more than a cricket team in opposition (the Liberals recognised Labor’s achievement here see Ian Hancock’s history of the Liberal organisation). In 2010 it will be the same seats that will be crucial for Labor’s survivial as a viable opposition.
If you guys think that Labor is going to snatch victory in 2011, you’re totaly deluding yourselves. Keep it up, though. The heartache is going to be absolutely fantastic to watch.
I think the “others” vote represents a general willingness to vote for independents. There are six independents in the Legislative Assembly. It suggests that, if credible independents pop up in key Labor seats, the vote is there for them to win.
I think the biker thing has boosted Rees’s prospects – receiving death threats from those nasty bikies is a real vote-winner. Among non-bikies, anyway. He’ll still loose – but I think the name of the game for NSW Labor is to contain their losses, and keep them positioned for the next go-round. The NSW Libs are truly dreadful.
I agree with Geoff Robinson @ 24. The ALP needs to hang on to the key Sydney marginal seats in order to avert an election disaster, and a higher primary vote will certainly help it to do so. That is the real matter of interest arising from this Newspoll. Of course, it remains to be seen whether the (apparently) positive trend on the ALP primary vote is sustained in subsequent Newspolls and in that respect, I think David Walsh @ 11 is spot on.
God help NSW if Pushy Pru is Premier.
Assuming that there will be a decent-sized swing against Labor in the next election, Labor can forget about retaining Miranda, Menai, Wollondilly, Camden, The Entrance and Gosford (all sit on less than 5% margins). They would also be vulnerable to the Greens in Balmain (currently a 3.8% margin v Greens).
The seats that it should try to retain are Coogee, Londonderry, Wyong, Drummoyne, Heathcote, Monaro and Penrith (all between 5 and 10%).
That said, even if Labor lost all of the seats that are currently under a 10% margin (including those margins vs independents and Greens, like Marrickville and Newcastle), Labor would still have 33 seats in Parliament, with the Coalition on 49 seats and Ind/Greens with 12.
25 – Patrick, Labor supporters are expecting a trouncing. A close loss will be manna from heaven and a win a miracle. The only people that will really feel a loss are conservative supporters. Now that would really be worth seeing.
Don’t overlook the preferred Premier figures and the respective job satisfaction figures. What people are saying there is that they view Barry in the same light as they view Nathan. For an opposition leader to be as popular or, in this case, as unpopular as the premier spells trouble IMHO.
With a bit nudge nudge wink wink from Howie. if Janette dont get you, Pru will.
How often is it that the leaders of both parties have a net dissatisfaction rating and the “unknown” is rated higher than either of them as preferred premier?
If the preferences are based on the 2007 election, the ALP’s numbers are way over-inflated. Remember, in 2007 the Libs had silly Debnam. At least Barry is more likeable.
In any event, for those ALP supporters still holding on to hope, these numbers still represent a crushing victory for the Coalition.
GP,
That’s true – however, on the primaries there has “only” been a 6% swing against Labor on primaries, with a 3% increase in the Coalition primary since the 2007 election.
If Labor’s vote drops 6% and the Coalition only increases 3%, it will probably struggle to form government in its own right – due primarily to the likely high number of independents/Greens that will be in the new Parliament if these polling numbers hold up.
That said, I’d rather be in NSW Coalition’s shoes than NSW Labor’s atm…
GP at 35: “In any event, for those ALP supporters still holding on to hope, these numbers still represent a crushing victory for the Coalition”
I laughed out loud at this comment, when I thought of all the drivel that Howard supporters and commentators wrote again and again in the face of polls, most of which were substantially worse than 53/47. Funny when the boot is on the other foot…
And would result in a WA style result – except that instead of the nats holding the balanced of power, it could well be the greens or a rogue independent.
Way more likeable, even though Barrel’s disapproval rating exceeds his approval rating, and even though Nathan Rees is STILL preferred Premier, even though his party is trailing!
Nah, Unknown is preferred premier.
According to possum, the last time we had both leaders with net dissatisfaction was in 1998.
Carr and Chicka?
No. Carr and Collins – Chika rolled him in December 98
I didn’t realise Carr was so unpopular so early on…
What are the chances of enough independents and Greens getting up, joining together and saying “A pox on both your houses, we`ll for a minority government”?
Carr’s popularity peaked just before the 2003 election, when the “Bob the Builder” theme was being fully embraced by all sections of the NSW media. Of course, “Bob the Builder” soon changed to “Carr Crash” after the election.
As for a Greens/independent government – you still need to muster up 47 votes to survive a vote of confidence. As it’s extremely unlikely the Greens or Independents could pull in this amount of seats, they would still depend on at least one of the major parties supporting them in the LA. It’s also unlikely that a combined Greens/Independents ticket could get more seats in the LA than either the Coalition or Labor – even when Labor’s primary vote was 26%, it would still have won more seats than the Greens because of the huge number of safe seats in western Sydney.
All the Independent and Green members would need is enough seats for a cabinet, a lack of a majority for the major parties and Labor not to join the Coalition.
If Labor and the Coalition teemed up to force an election then the Greens and Independents would probably get a surge of support for taking the fight to the system.
I think what they’d actually need to show is that they had the confidence of the House to govern.
If they together held fewer seats than either or both major parties and refused to support one or the other for government, they would most likely be criticised for holding the State to ransom in order to gain government despite both failing to seek such a mandate during the election and failing to achieve such a mandate in the form of seats.
Forget the polls. People are going to say anything to a pollster in a survey on state politics in NSW. Everyone here knows there is bugger all difference between the two major parties. Which party would you vote for? Who cares. It depends what mood your in as to what answer you give!
However, when you are asked who you would prefer as Premier? You will exert a few more brain cells and are inclined to give a more realistic answer. So O’Farrell has gotten within 31-33 from 29-32. If he can release a few good policies, which is by no means easy for a liberal, then he can win. We have got to get rid of Tripodi and Sartor, Yuk!
So you will be voting Liberal Centre?
Let’s not forget that the Lib/Nats need to win 11 seats to govern in their own right. In order, that’s Miranda, Menai, Wollondilly, Camden, Gosford, The Entrance, Monaro, Wyong, Londonderry, Coogee and Drummoyne, the last being an 8% swing. If they miss just 2 of those 11 (and I think that Steve Whan is popular enough to withstand a swing) they need to start winning Riverstone, Rockdale and others, all over 10%.
Rees is improving Labor’s image in NSW and I expect a close election yet. People wont want minority Government and people aren’t really judging the Libs yet. All Labor needs is for Peter Debnam to start speaking a little more and there’ll be a ball game yet.
I don’t know yet GB. But if O’Farrell can come up with two or even one good policy – yes I will.
If Labor runs a “don’t risk a Coalition minority government” campaign, they will get slammed for their arrogance and will drive more people towards the Coalition.
People will vote for the party they want – if it ends up in a minority government, so be it. After all, we’ve had 2 minority governments in NSW in recent years (Greiner/Fahey from 1991 – 1995, Carr in the period before The Entrance by-election in 1995) and most people would say that those governments were better than the choices we’ve got atm.
I agree NSW isn`t Tasmania.
Minority government does not have the same negative connotations.
I think a big party free government would have quite a bit of support (as long as it does not have fringe parties in it).
“If Labor runs a “don’t risk a Coalition minority government” campaign, they will get slammed for their arrogance and will drive more people towards the Coalition.”
Maybe so and I don’t expect that Labor would run that campaign, but I’m simply pointing out that for the Libs to win in their own right they will probably need a 10% swing, which I think is doubtful.
On a side note, if Clover didn’t run that would make Sydney very interesting.
At the 2007 election, in the LC, the Libs and ALP got 29% each and the Greens 27% in the Sydney electorate.
That’s true. But I don’t think the prospect of a minority government will stop people from voting for the Coalition at the next election.
Swing Lowe, probably not, but it might make them think twice about voting for an Independent or minor party.
It will be interesting to see if the libs can keep their religious nut cases under control.
They have so much practice in grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.
Indeed, I would be sending David Clarke on a Research Assignment to somewhere without telephones for election month if I were the Libs.
Some small town in Mexico would be ideal.
Why would Clover Moore not run again?
Just because Clover will be 65 in 2011 and she has two pretty demanding jobs. Just speculating.
Centre, there is nothing wrong with voting Liberal to get rid of a bad government, I did it myself in ‘92 in Victoria. Trouble was that it was such a rout it took two elections (with the second one being a phenominal result -Jeff thought he’d be retiring in 2010 and handing the state over to one of his colleagues) to get rid of the arrogant lot we elected back in ‘92. If the rout is too severe you can be stuck with a government that has a philosophy opposing your own for many years to come.
Gary B., You are correct, this sort of extreme tactical voting can have unintended consequences but in Vics case only 2 terms of “love the hair love the look” Kennett was pretty much a dodged bullet.
Puru G. as premier of NSW is bad enough but her husband as “first lady” would be scary, David Barnett has some pretty virulent views.
Rofl “don’t risk a Coalition minority government” was pretty much Jim bacon’s election platform here in Tassie, back in the day.
For sure GB, still there is a long way to go and the liberals have to show us what they have to offer.
No rout can be too severe. 96 was a rout but Howard almost lost in 98, probably would have if the opposition was better prepared led and had policies.
A rout would have been good in 07, would have shown the opposition that it wasn’t the people sleep walking, now they risk a rout in 2010.
I used to think that there was a bit of an “anyone but Labor” feel about, but I have noticed that people are no longer ANGRY at the government. They are merely angry. I felt that there had been a bit of a mood change and that the polls would reflect it. But, that doesn’t mean that when the election comes, that people won’t be ANGRY again.
I thought Rees’ steady as she goes – I am angry with the government too approach was a waste of time – but now I am not so sure.
O’Farrell is so well known now that I am surprised that he does not have such a better approval figure. Maybe this will be the downfall for the conservatives.
I, and many people I know, voted for the NSW government at the last election, holding our noses. The said government should have been somewhat chastened, but instead showed not a jot of humility, carrying on like the medieval pontiff, can’t remember which, who observed “Since God has given us the Papacy, let us enjoy it.”
Dancing around in your underwear at a party, for heaven’s sake! More like a rugby team than a government. Now they are paying the price, basically for treating politics as a game rather than a profession.
Look at the rubbish they pursue, with their faction fights and deals. These factional leaders would be unemployable in the real world. If you had a group of workers coming to work on your garden or house, you would sack them in two minutes if they spent all the time backbiting each other, rather than just getting the job done. I have no doubt that one of the reasons the Rudd government is doing so well in the polls is that it isn’t engaging in this sort of nonsense, but is focussing on doing what people expect it to.
I suspect even people who are sympathetic to the ALP in NSW have concluded that the party machine is so dysfunctional that the only way to reform it and to make it viable in the long run is to see it so flattened at an election that the old ways will be permanently discredited, as happened with Japanese militarism at Hiroshima.
GB, you voted for Kennett? I can never respect you again!
Pedant
I agree the ALP is totally concerned with the spoils and nothing to do with the governing. In 14 years of government, I can think of nothing they have done.
I ask and no-one has ever provided me with an adequate answer – Name one significant achievement of the NSW ALP government that they started and finished.
Look at all the transport announcements with nothing achieved. In both the 1990s and the 2000s in WA a major rail line was built – north and south. Yet here there is nothing major at all.
Tom the first and best @ 45
Nil, I should say, once you think through the procedural details of how the system works.
Let’s say that neither the ALP nor the Coalition wins a majority in the Legislative Assembly, and let’s say ‘others’ win a total of, say, 15 seats. What happens next? Either the Premier tenders his resignation at once or he doesn’t.
If he doesn’t tender his resignation, presumably he will try to secure undertakings of support, or at least qualified support, from crossbenchers. If he gets enough, that’s it. If he doesn’t, what happens next? Probably, Parliament meets and the Coalition leader moves a motion of no confidence in the government (or its procedural equivalent). If this isn’t carried, the ALP government will continue. If it is carried, the ALP government will resign.
So, if we get, one way or the other, to a situation where the ALP government resigns, what happens next? Either the outgoing Premier will advise the Governor who to commission as Premier or not. If he does, who is he going to advise if not the Opposition leader?–particularly if the Opposition leader has moved a succesful motion of no-confidence, but probably even if not. The Governor doesn’t have to take the outgoing Premier’s advice, but is likely to, and is likely anyway to nominate the Opposition leader if he has moved a succesful motion of no-confidence. Even in a scenario where the ALP Premier resigns immediately after an election defeat and tenders no advice to the Governor, who else is the Governor going to commission if not the Opposition Leader? We’re looking at a situation where the crossbenchers still only have about 15 seats, and they will also have no recognised leader. Even if they could get together to agree on a leader, that person would not have been in the public eye as leader, let alone potential Premier, during the election campaign and won’t have the same public status as the Opposition Leader–and, in this scenario, will still have the support of fewer MPs than either the ALP or the Coalition leader.
Once a Coalition Government is formed, the ALP, having just resigned from government, is hardly likely to move an immediate motion of no-confidence, and is also hardly likely to support one if the crossbenchers move it. So the Coalition Government will carry on for the time being.
In the immediate aftermath of an election with the kind of results you’re talking about, pretty much the only way the crossbenchers could prevent the formation of a Coalition Government is by keeping the ALP government in office, protecting it from defeat on a motion of no-confidence.
In any case, where do you see your scenario going from here? I just can’t see any sequence that leads up to your government of Independents and Greens.
71 – I’ve learned my lesson Andrew. If an ALP government goes stale I’m not going to vote for the opposition which stands for everything I don’t. I’d rather vote informal.
Morgan 59/41
Carmel Tebbutt vs Pru Goward in 2011. That would be sweet! The Coalition would end up with 70 seats or more!
Bree, shh. Not even Glen or GP take you seriously, and that’s saying something.
Tebbutt v Goward. Women v women, Tebbutt would win. The voters would take one look at Tebbutt and think hmmm she could do ok. One look at Goward and go yuukk. Tebbutt has got it. Goward ain’t.
It’s all intangible and you can’t define it. You would need a real good quack to work it out.
Nonsense! Pru would win easily if her Labor opponent is also a female. Having said that, this Newspoll is only a brief hiatus for Labor, Barry will still cream Nathan and lead the Coalition to a historic landslide.