The latest Newspoll confirms the trend of recent Morgan and Essential Research results in showing an easing in Labor’s lead, from 58-42 in the previous two fortnightly surveys to 55-45. Labor’s primary vote has dropped five points to 42 per cent, its lowest level since November, but the Coalition’s is up only one point to 38 per cent. The Greens’ account for two points of the difference, up from 9 to 11 per cent. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has dropped a further point to a new low of 36 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is down three points to 64 per cent, while Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 19 per cent.
UPDATE: Graphic here (how long have they been waiting to use that photo of Kevin Rudd?). Interesting supplementary question on what the government should have done with the stimulus package money – 78 per cent say they would have preferred it be spent on infrastructure, which is the kind of opinion poll response political operatives hesitate to believe. Opinion is divided on whether promised tax cuts should go ahead as planned.
Other news:
• Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead nudging downwards for the fourth week in a row. It’s now at 57-43, compared with 63-37 on April 6. The survey also reveals slightly more optimism on the economy than was recorded in mid-March, mixed messages on what should be done in the budget, a persistence of illiberal attitudes towards asylum seekers, and a widespread belief that Pacific nations such as Fiji should be “left to sort out their own affairs”.
• An anonymous business figure tells Glenn Milne of The Australian that “major business donors” have a hit list of 14 MPs who must make way for new blood if the Liberal Party is to get their donations. These are Bronwyn Bishop (Mackellar) and Philip Ruddock (Berowra), Kevin Andrews (Menzies), Alby Schultz (Hume), Joanna Gash (Gilmore), Judi Moylan (Pearce), Wilson Tuckey (O’Connor), Margaret May (McPherson), Andrew Laming (Bowman), Michael Johnson (Ryan) and Alex Somlyay (Fairfax), along with Nationals John Forrest (Mallee) and Bruce Scott (Maranoa) plus one lone Senator, former Howard numbers man Bill Heffernan. Some of these point to the Coalition’s undoubted surplus of MPs past their use-by date, as noted in detail recently by Peter van Onselen in The Australian. Others on the list fall well below van Onselen’s nominated cut-off point of 60 years of age, the most striking examples being Johnson (39) and Laming (42). Milne’s source also reckons Barnaby Joyce is “divisive and not a team player or a regional centre vote winner” – the latter judgement at least seems a very big call. While Milne describes the list as “non-factional”, Liberal sources are evidently putting it to Andrew Bolt that responsibility for the article ultimately lies with party treasurer and Turnbull ally Michael Yabsley, who scores an indirect compliment from Milne’s source.
• Submissions for the redistribution of New South Wales federal elections have been published, compelling the major parties to suggest which electorate they think should be eliminated. The Liberals have excitingly decided the axe should be wielded on their own turf, suggesting Kay Hull’s seat of Riverina and Alby Schultz’s seat of Hume be merged into a new seat called Bradman. Schultz has reacted by calling for a return to rural malapportionment. Ben Raue notes that the Liberals want territory transferred from Wentworth to Sydney, which would at once make Malcolm Turnbull safer while leaving Tanya Plibersek more vulnerable to the Greens. Labor’s submission calls for the abolition of Pat Farmer’s seat of Macarthur further to the north, where the Liberals propose to strengthen their position by adding territory from Hume.
• Swoon over the new-look Crikey. Now no longer featuring my goofy 2004 vintage mug on the front page, praise the Lord.
1,434 Comments
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Telstra names David Thodey CEO as McGauchie resigns as chair
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Telstra-appoints-David-Thodey-CEO-McGauchie-resign-pd20090508-RTUPE?OpenDocument
Mr Thodey, who is expected to take a more conciliatory approach than his predecessor with the government
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Great news for customers and shareholders
Oz
Don’t disagree with the Light Rail proposal but in overall transport planning terms the really “big ticket” items needed in Sydney are heavy rail extensions to NW and SW and removal of track capacity impediments closer in to allow them to run efficiently. There are lots of people in the NW and SW suburbs with no PT services, very high % use of car to commute, over long distances. That is where the bigest gain can be had in terms of reducing car usage.
Hey bludgers when they lifted the threshold for paying increased medicare levy from 50k to 75K there was actually an increase in private health insurance uptake I recall. does anyone have that link handy? Too lazy to go looking.
Also very happy with rebate changes. will make not 1 iota of difference to people dropping out. Just save us billions
Here you go centaur
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25072508-601,00.html
excellent dario- thank you
Election statistics, German history, architecture, old atlases, Tudor and Stuart coins, commemorative plates…
We share one interest: architecture.
I’m guessing you don’t agree with me that Frank LLoyd Wright was the greatest architect of the modern era.
Can’t you people in NSW throw your Government out early? I’m in Broken Hill ATM and this has to be the WORST Health Service I’ve seen in my 20 years. They have 1200 patients on the waiting list to be seen in Eye Outpatients. There’s only 18,000 people in BH so that’s 1 in 15 waiting for one clinic going blind. It’s like a Third World Country out here.
Seems a bit silly to attack Kevin Rudd about his hair in a way that reminds those few rusted on Lib voters who still might be brushed loose that he was in Afganistan talking with the troops and being all ’strong leader/statesmanly’?
OK, whilst we’re into using the collective wisdom of the PB readership, a friend of mine (really, I have them) wants the contact details of the Australian-based Italian senator, Nino Randazzo (we’ve both tried googling).
I assume there’s an Italian parliament contacts page but can’t find that either (possibly because it’s in Italian??)
http://www.senato.it/leg/16/BGT/Schede/Attsen/00022795.htm
That took me one minute.
http://www.senato.it/leg/16/BGT/Schede/Attsen/00022795.htm
His page has his e-mail details if that helps.
Diogenes @ 1206
I can’t see how. What mechanism would you suggest?
More generally, do you think fixed-term Parliaments are a bad idea?
Love ya all
Hockey must think himself pretty darn ineffective
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25447064-5005962,00.html
J-D
Revolution maybe.
Is there no mechanism at all? Can’t they be sacked by the Governor, GG, Rudd or Queen maybe? For arguments sake, imagine there is a general strike and people refuse to pay their State taxes (BTW I’m NOT advocating this as it’s not that bad) there must be some mechanism for getting rid of a State government if they are so diabolical the state melts down.
Fixed terms don’t really enter into it. The morons you have here in NSW would hang on until the last minute no matter what.
So who watched Q&A last night? I thought Crikey’s Guy Rundle was pretty good, Sharman Stone was a daft idiot as always, even more so was Greg Sheridan, conservative foreign editor for the Oz. Labor Senator Mark Arbib was the sensible-speaking centrist.
Yes, no, no, no.
Q&A is continually set up to trap a Labor government minister or parliamentary secretary, but it doesn’t work, Arbib was very articulate on last night’s episode and certainly in line for promotion when the reshuffle occurs.
I see the responsible pragmatic non-ideological mainstream moderate faction of the ALP has been putting its values into practice in Brimbank Council, the Ombuds report is quite funny in a tragic sort of way
An election in NSW can only be called if:
1) a motion of no confidence is passed
2) the legislative assembly rejects or ‘fails to pass’ an appropriation bill
It can be held 2 months earlier to the expiration date of the parliament if it would require the election to be held ‘during the same period as a Commonwealth election’ during a holiday period or at any other ‘inconvenient’ time.
He’s an NSW powerbroker. He was only elected in 2007 and immediately given a parliamentary secretary role, like Combet and Shorten. They’ll all get ministries at some point in the not too distant future.
For heaven sake do we have to go over this again? Time passes too bloody quickly. It will be no time before the lucky people of NSW will have the genius of Barry and his clever, united group of followers leading them to nirvana.
How was it “set up to trap” Arbib?
It’s striking that after years of criticism for putting hacks in safe seats, the NSW ALP at the last two elections has sent some outstanding talent to Canberra. Peter Garrett, Tony Burke, Chris Bowen, Greg Combet, Mike Kelly, Bob Debus, Maxine McKew and Mark Arbib – not a bad haul in two elections.
I have to say I find Diogenes’ implicit approval of allowing the Prime Minister to sack a state premier a bit odd.
Good point.
Even though the NSW is pretty terrible, if there was anything that could be worse it would be the NSW Coalition. Labor deserves to be thrashed but I don’t know if it’s worth risking a term or two of the Coalition.
Then again, I can’t really see any policy differences between the two. Labor is making it up as it goes and the Coalition doesn’t have any, so they’ll make it up as they if they win government as well.
At least the PM is elected, unlike the governor?
Not saying that the PM should have the power though.
You don’t consider any of them party hacks…?
The fact that the governor is not elected actually makes it, to me, preferable to give them reserve powers such as dismissing a government as you’d hope they’d be impartial.
To allow people their personal opinion on whether a government is ‘worthy’ is a dangerous path to go down.
Maybe the states can shuffle some MP’s around amongst them to get a better side. You know as a temporary measure till after the election
Vera et. al.,
Everyone is all in for each pick, no one is out alone this week.
(KR, MT, JG, JB)
Hawthorn
Geelong
Brisbane
P. Adelaide
Carlton
W. Bulldogs
West Coast
St. Kilda
Psephos
I agree with Bob – Mark Arbib is a classic case of a factiuonal hack. But even that is muddying the water – the problem is NSW State labor, not federal. On your point though, if that is the NSW talent, would you say that any are in the parliamentary party’s top half dozen performers? Do any of them beat Rudd, Swan, Gillard, Tanner, Albanese, Wong or Faulkner? I doubt it very much. (I am excluding Gillard because she is obviously not aligned with the NSW right fiefdom).
Depends on your definition of “hack.” My defintion is “a talentless person promoted solely through loyalty or seniority.” By that definiton none of the above is a hack. Some have long bacgrounds in the ALP and/or the unions, but that’s a different thing. Kelly, Garrett and McKew were recruited from outside politics.
Not at present, but they may do in time. As Turnbull is discovering, politics is a craft that takes time to learn. (Garrett discovered that, too, but he’s not as arrogant as Turnbull and he has rapidly improved.)
Yeah, because the only dismissal in Australia’s history was impartial… LOL
As I said, “hack” is a word that needs to be defined before it is thrown around too carelessly. Arbib has made his career in the party machine, but so did Faulkner and Albanese. The question is, does he have talent?
As a Labor supporter I have no difficulty with the sentiment but the reality with a thrashing is that I am stuck with a government that has a philosophical bent I oppose. Sure it could be argued that there is not much difference between the two major parties but I argue that a good Labor government (IMHO which the federal government is) is far better than a good conservative government. I also argue that a bad Labor government (IMHO which the NSW government is) is better than a bad conservative government.
If a strongly supported conservative government does all those things I hate because I helped elect them to get rid of a bad Labor government, I have forfeited the right to criticise them IMHO. I knew what was coming and I put them there. At least if I elect a bad Labor government I can criticise them for doing things a Labor government shouldn’t be doing and try and do something about it.
That is only relevant if you think circumstances would’ve been different had John Kerr been elected. His decision was arguably wrong but that’s got nothing to do with the way he was appointed.
Turnbull’s problem is not his arrogance, it’s his conceit and that’s where he comes unstuck.
It happened during the republican debate and it’s happening again now.
He’s learnt nothing in ten years. Sad for him, the Liberal Party and the nation.
ltep
I was not indicating approval for Rudd sacking the NSW Government. I just wondered if he could under the circumstances I mentioned of a general strike and civil disobedience. It looks like if they have the numbers, they can stay there.
From above link:
Preferred opposition leader- 7 on line poll
52% Hockey
33 Costello
15 Turnbull
Taking away the obvious Sunrise factor, very bad sign for Turnbull. and hasnt Hockey come from nowhere- Bring him on, I reckon!!
The Commonwealth has no constitutional powers at all in relation to the governments of the states. The states’ rights politicians who wrote the Constitution made quite sure of that.
Most important news of the day!
“South Sydney confirmed it has signed Kangaroos and Queensland forward Michael Crocker until the end of the 2012 NRL season.
The premiership-winning forward will be available for selection as early as next weekend’s round 10 match against the Tigers after inking a three-and-a-half-year deal with the Rabbitohs.”
Oz, if youre talking a labor thrashing its not one or even two terms of liberals that you’d get. Be careful what you wish for. And also consider how much the federal libs have learnt from being chucked out- absolutely nothing
1211,
Yes, yes and yes. Oh, and in case I forgot to mention it, yes
…… I grew up on the US system and (as is the case in NSW which brought this comment up) it sucks big time. If the mob who are in power (in US system or here) aren’t any good, you have not a whole lot you can do about it.
Yes I agree with that. Arrogance is the inability or unwillingness to conceal one’s superior talents. Conceit is the false belief that one has superior talents. Whitlam is arrogant, Turnbull is conceited.
1221,
Hopefully I won’t have a NSW postcode if this bridge is ever crossed
Diogs,
Aren’t you being a tad ingenuous.
The reason the queues are so long is that “dedicated medical professionals” prefer to fly in and out at their leisure rather than stay in situ to deal with these communities. Obviously, the Chardonnay is colder in Adelaide.
Labor was thrashed in 1988 and Greiner only got one term of majority government, followed a second term of weak minority government. NSW is a natural Labor state. Since the Liberal Party was founded in 1944 it has only won majority government in NSW at five elections (1965, 68, 71 and 73 under Askin, and 1988 under Greiner). No matter how badly Labor loses in 2010, they will bounce back fairly quickly.
Juliem, Hockey says everyone will flock to the public hospitals and we’ll all be rooned
He’s dusted off and is recycling the same script they used when the Govt lifted the threshold for paying increased medicare levy.
Ands we all know that was BS
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