No Morgan poll this week – in a half-baked attempt to tie the headline to the post, here’s a link to an analysis by Possum posing the question, “is there a polling budget effect?” (short answer: no). With that out of the way:
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports on the demise of a Queensland Coalition deal in which Barnaby Joyce was to move to the lower house and Liberal Senator Russell Trood was to maintain the existing balance in the Senate by joining the Nationals. The Liberals’ end of the deal was reportedly vetoed by federal Liberal president Alan Stockdale, prompting Joyce to angrily declare he would not be moving from the Senate. Trood’s factional ally, former state Liberal president Bob Carroll, says he would stake his life on Trood never agreeing to sit in the Nationals rather than the Liberal party room. This would seem to be a pretty big call, given that Trood’s alternative is to stay in the surely unwinnable fourth position on the Liberal National ticket.
• Fans of factional argybargy can unearth a motherlode of detail on Labor’s western Melbourne fiefdoms from the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. Among the matters examined is the highly fraught preselection for last year’s Kororoit by-election, with the Ombudsman recommending an investigation into a possible breach of the Local Government Act by failed aspirant and former mayor Natalie Suleyman. It is alleged that a funding decision for a sports ground redevelopment was influenced by a desire to win the support of Keilor MP and Right powerbroker George Seitz, and that efforts were made to withdraw the funding when Seitz failed to come through.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC notes that preselection nominations for federal Liberal seats in WA close in less than three weeks, so those gunning for the removal of Pearce MP Judi Moylan and O’Connor MP Wilson Tuckey don’t have long to get their act together. Matt Brown tells Kennedy he hasn’t made up his mind whether to launch a second challenge against Dennis Jensen in Tangney, although jockeying in local branches suggests otherwise.
• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports that Bronwyn Bishop’s hold on the larger branches in her electorate of Mackellar has “slipped”. One of the potential challengers, believe it or not, is former state Opposition Leader John Brogden. Another is a blast from an even more distant past – Jim Longley, who preceded Brogden as member for the local state seat of Pittwater.
• Western Australia’s minority Liberal-National government lost a vote in the Legislative Assembly on Wednesday, which I believe to be the first defeat for a government there in 17 years. At issue was a highly contentious bill to replace preferential voting at local government elections with first-past-the-post. However, the defeat resulted from the absence of four ministers from the chamber, and the bill was passed on a second attempt later in the day. The subject of the bill itself is obviously worth discussion, which I will attend to eventually. For whatever reason, the seemingly retrograde measure has the support of the Western Australian Local Government Association.
• A report by the Youth Electoral Study for the Australian Electoral Commission finds 20 per cent of youths aged 18 to 25 are not enrolled to vote, and “close to half” wouldn’t vote if it wasn’t compulsory. Those who went to private schools or were subjected to civics classes were somewhat more enthusiastic.
• You might recall some chat last month about a looming referendum on the introduction of a Hare-Clark style electoral system in the Canadian province of British Columbia. Well, that’s happening on Tuesday.
• Possum’s favourite word, “spiffy”, doesn’t do justice to his infographic electoral demographic displays.
• If it’s analysis of major party submissions for the federal redistribution in New South Wales you’re after, Ben Raue of The Tally Room is unequivocally your man.
596 Comments
Re the NSW fed seat of Mackellar. I’d like to see Brogden win pre selection for that seat as it was his own party that robbed him of becoming Premier of NSW. I feel that he would have won in 2007.
With all the activity going on now with the stimulus funds going out to local Council and every school in Australia and the subsidies going to Solar power to homes, that next months unemployment figure goes down again or at worst remains the same.
Where I live, the Solar Power installers are offering a 1kw Grid Connected Solar Power System fully installed, for the cost of the rebate, if we can have 100 homes sign up.
Considering that we are mostly pensioners or self funded retirees on fixed income, this is an offer I will be taking on, as the difficult part was having to pay up front. Before this offer there where already 60 homes signed up out of a total 190 homes.
Denis Atkins gives Possum’s work on Turnbulls satisfaction ratings (or lack thereof) a run in the Courier Mail.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25448462-27197,00.html
Why SA Labor will beat the SA Liberals next year:
http://www.independentweekly.com.au/news/local/news/political/sa-premier-or-dead-man-walking/1508277.aspx?storypage=0
Yesterday, it was the shocking news of Toyota’s big loss since 1963. Today, the US economy is in depression country. The job loss number is down but apparently 60,000 is due the temporary census workers hired by the US Govt. The unemployment rate is predicted to go to 11%.
Australia’s 5.4% is looking very good indeed, especially at one time 5% was regarded as full employment. No wonder The Rudd Govt is riding high.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/world-business/us-jobless-rate-hits-26year-high-20090509-ay9n.html
Rupert wants me to pay for this?:
More sterling additions to the annals of quality journalism from today’s Daily Telegraph’s front page.
Smith offers Damir Dokic consular assistance – http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25451149-5010361,00.html
Another anti-Labor Oz piece. Any Australians overseas are offered consular assistance, just like anyone has the right to be represented by a lawyer in a court. Talk about a beatup…
The Liberals must wish they had an equivalent of Labor’s N40 (?) rule (the one allowing head office to select a candidate by bypassing local branches).
There needs to be a way of booting out Bishop, Tuckey, plus more than a few others, if they choose not to go quietly.
Brogden would be an asset to the federal party, and as mentioned he certainly deserves a chance after being shafted at state level.
bob
There’s a flaw in that article. It says:
That wouldn’t work because Rann would bring back “hung, drawn and quartered” if MHS went for public hangings.
On a more serious note, the article doesn’t mention the RAH/stadium debate which seems to be favouring the Libs. Strange omission.
Re 5,
Bushfire Bill, further to my original post late on Friday evening, more on Rupert and the net
Why should taxpayers pay compensation on behalf of James Hardie? If the company can’t pay, liquidate it’s assets. This is ridiculous. It’s a private company. It’s got nothing to do with Rudd and the taxpayer.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25451206-601,00.html
More sloppy work from the OO:
“The explosion happened minutes before a nine-person party from HMAS Childers had relayed a “high-threat situation” on the boat. ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25451194-601,00.html
-surely the explosion happened *after* the “high-threat situation” warning had been relayed?
Whatever happened to subeditors? They used to be the sharpest readers on a newspaper’s staff, who would rather have self-immolated than allow an error this dumb through. Don’t media proprietors realise that simple clangers like this call into question their entire content?
I don’t think it’s favouring the Libs, despite The Advertiser’s pro-Liberal rants.
I probably would “pay” for something like this from Paul Kelly.
But then if he made silly analysis like this: “Treasury analysis shows net debt for other advanced nations will hit 62 per cent of GDP this year. The reason Australia’s debt level is so low, to Labor’s good fortune, is because the Howard government eliminated the debt. It is Howard’s gift to Rudd”. I wouldn’t pay.
The gift was from PJK and China, not Howard.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25449742-12250,00.html
bob
The phone poll of 600 or so said it was about 60-30 against the redevelopment. You can’t get any better evidence that it’s favouring the Libs. Don’t forget the same poll had Labor with a healthy lead. Are you discounting both results of the poll or just one?
Dio, i’m sure that given the choice between the Libs lucky dip of three RAH redevelopments, against the Labor choice of a new RAH, people will go with the new RAH. And people don’t vote governments out for building a new hospital – especially a Labor government to be replaced with a Liberal government.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25452241-5005962,00.html
The Finnigans @ 13..
To be fair it may have been PJK’s idea, and he may have kicked it off to a good start, even play the first three quarters brilliantly, but Howard then didn’t drop the ball, at least as far as paying down debt was concerned.
But that’s basically all he did. He didn’t accumulate much either by way of savings… he just left the bank balance at zero: better than debt, but not as good as being well in the black. At the end of Howard’s time we had run down infrastructure, over-inflated housing prices, winners and losers being picked based on their potential to deliver marginal seats to Howard and all the rest of it: Iraq, Tampa, Haneef and so on, a resurrection of the Australian xenophobic ugliness.
But strictly speaking Saint Paul has a point: without Howard’s zeroing of the debt (to all practical purposes), even if simply by continuing PJK’s good work and ideas and not fumbling, we’d have been in a much deeper hole than we are now.
bob
I think Hill has lost the RAH debate and will continue to do so. No-one believes anything he says as he’s the most spin-driven pollie we have. He’s hoping it will go away as he keeps taking hits on it. I fully agree that it won’t be enough to get the Libs over the line but it will cost them a couple of seats IMHO. The Libs are so hopeless on Health (Chapman is possibly the worst shadow health minister ever) that they won’t exploit it to it’s full potential.
Apart from banning the export of coal and iron ore it would have been impossible for anybody to drop the ball during the last decade if record revenues is the measure. There could have been no government for the past decade and it still would have rained money on Australia.
Howard as a leader dropped the ball on just about everything. Leadership on racism, xenophobia, bigotry, greed, fairness, health, education and planning and development. In fact the Howard govt was pretty much like not having a government in many respects.
The ship Australia sailed forward on auto-pilot without repairs and maintenance whilst the captain and crew were busy making sure the passengers feared imaginary monsters of the deep and repelled all funny looking boarders and ‘made’ them willing to clean the decks and pay the ship owners for the privileged.
The Howard era was a once in a generation opportunity missed.
South Australian State Election battlelines being drawn – http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25269050-5018929,00.html
Done right, this will work well for Rann Labor. Wouldn’t you agree Dio?
To control on line news Murdoch media would have to buy up the ISP providers and get laws made that enable them control the on line news environment.
I would however like to see government slash print advertising and use a dedicated web site where possible and to provide small grants to people/groups to develop on-line news and opinion web sites thus ensuring a diversity of this on-line.
bob
I doubt that lots of things that will come up om the campaign were on that “bible”. I’m sure the Marj/RAH wasn’t. I doubt the desal plant was. The voters don’t want Strategic Plans, which they know are all BS. They want a competent Government they can trust. All Labor has to do is show MHS and the nobodies that he has hidden for the last three years and say “Who are these people and do you really want them running our state?”
The answer is obviously no if you are a swinging voter.
TP
Good ole rupe is entering the twilight zone both literally and metaphorically
the poor bugger thinks he is still master of the universe
considering the likes of abc bbc cnn etc etc, the old dodder should realise he will simply price himself out of the market
BB, how can you drop the ball when there was the river of moneys. Remember when fairfax had the saturday classified, it was the river of gold. fairfax was king and didn’t have to do a thing. Now? A bit like Rupe, gasping for air.
Am I the only one who can see a contradiction in these figures and the argument that “it is favouring the Libs”? It seems most people are saying ‘We are against the development but don’t want the Libs in power’. Just how is that favouring the Libs? It’s certainly not doing their election chances any favours.
Gary
There is no contradiction in the figures. On the subject of the RAH, the voters are strongly on the side of the Liberals. There are many other issues in the SA election. Overall, the voters want Labor back but they are losing this issue. I fail to see a contradiction.
Dio, if the issue is not translating into votes for the Libs then how strongly do people view this issue? It’s obviously not affecting their voting intentions.
BB at #17,
are you counting the billions Howard put towards soverign funds like the Future Fund when you say
“He didn’t accumulate much either by way of savings… he just left the bank balance at zero”
Hey Squig, why don’t you use one of these pictures for your avatar?
http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=mr+squiggle
How pampered have we become when we are not happy with our government building a new hospital?
Gary
I think it is affecting a few people’s voting intentions. Water is our number 1 issue by a mile, followed by health. But what is much more important than the “issues” is just how hopeless the Opposition is. The only time they get a break is when Labor stuffs up (like Kouts and his speeding fines) or when someone else does the work for them (like Prof Young on water, or the doctors on the RAH). I work with Jim Katsaros, who is the head of the Save the RAH group, and he doesn’t even bother talking to the Liberals because they are so hopeless.
Dio, as far as the contradiction is concerned, for a political party the winning of a war is winning the election. Winning one battle (the hospital issue) but losing the war is not IMHO (and I’m sure for the Libs themselves) “favouring the Libs”.
Thanks Gary!!
I love the one with the nose drooping, how I feel just now
I’ve got some spare time coming up, I’ll put some thought into an avatar and have fun finding out how to make it happen
Gary
It does bring up an interesting phenomenon I’ve noticed. We’d need Possum to prove it but it looks to me that the Labor State Governments seem to have made a decision to forfeit the “better Health manager” in exchange for the more highly rated “better economic manager”, which has flipped their traditional roles.
In Qld, Health was one of the few (?only) issues Labor was behind on. In WA, Labor was behind on Health as well. I’m pretty sure they would lose in SA too (and they obviously would lose in NSW) but they are trading it for points in the economic manager stakes. Health is a bottomless money pit and you could pour billions in and it wouldn’t touch the sides. Tactically, I think it’s a winner.
Squigg @ 27:
As I understand it, the Future Fund was not too many billions up front, and was actually a deposit to balance a liability (PS Super): in other words a zero sum game. Not a saving.
The future fund has lost billions and came the proceeds of selling an assett which continues to make billions
[ NEW South Wales woman has tested positive to swine flu in Australia's first confirmed case of the illness, Queensland's chief medical officer says.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25452241-5005962,00.html
She’s completely recovered, not infectious and contracted the disease in America weeks ago. Her tests show a “weak” antibody presence, no-one’s going to get sick because of being near her, but she’s all ours, and all over the front pages: space masks, goggles, Nicola Rixon press conferences, the lot.
Mainstream Media At It Again, Bloggers Report
May 8, 2009
NEW YORK—The mainstream media—a loose consortium of corporate news outlets known for using professionally trained journalists who adhere to an editorial process—have once again completely missed the boat in their reporting of national events, outraged sources within the blogosphere said Monday. “When will the MSM dinosaurs realize that they’re TOTALLY irrelevant?” wrote 39-year-old part-time librarian James Last, commenting on coverage of Obama’s first 100 days in a scathing post that appeared on his blog, The LAST Word. “If the idiots at MSNBC, The New York Times, and WaPo could lift their heads from the money trough for a minute, maybe they’d write a story that’s not completely driven by the corporate agenda. I’m not holding my breath.” Right-wing bloggers were reportedly equally upset, with many singling out MSNBC, The New York Times, and The Washington Post as “shills” for the liberal agenda. At press time, an estimated 8.4 million bloggers nationwide were watching CNN.
Where’s GP? He now has TWENTY FIVE BILLION DOLLARS of MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE projects to make him happy:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25451295-601,00.html
Rees is goooooooone.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/nathan-rees-under-pressure-20090509-ayfi.html
Is this from The Onion?
It’s from The People’s Daily
Paul Kelly:
Gorgeous George’s Howard’s gift to Rudd:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/swan_set_for_two_step_shuffle/
Howie’s Indian giver. Give me Gorgeous George anytime. Too much Ned in Kelly.
And you wait for it, the Henry tax review is going to propose cutting the business tax rate even further, because that is what other OECD countries are doing.
Squealing, sooking and crying poor. Those poor coal executives are telling us the sky will fall in if they don’t get even more concessions. I love Greg Combet’s comment.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25451226-5013871,00.html
Diogenes, do you suppose it’s possible to have an effective decarbonisation scheme that doesn’t adversely effect an industry which employs people to dig up carbon?
Nope. They’re going to have to suck it up. Unless they diversify and move into geothermal or CCS or uranium. And we all know they don’t want to do that. They want the status quo. As did the dinosaurs. The coal industry is going to have to evolve or die.
True, cos the only currently effective method of sequestering carbon is to leave it in the ground.
was there any mention of Vic and its brown coal ??
Has anyone considered countering global warming by moving the Erth to an orbit further out from the Sun?
Erth = Earth
Joshua Gans has a short piece on the healthcare changes. A link to the oz reveals that tax cuts for the rich begin this year as planned and the penalty for them not having private health insurance begins next year.
http://economics.com.au/?p=3362
The Earth is pretty big. How do you propose moving it’s orbit far enough to drop the temp by 2C or so?
Yes that is the question, isn’t it? I don’t suppose we could trigger a large enough explosion on the sunward side of the Earth to deflect its orbit without causing unacceptable damage. Perhaps we could build a giant retrorocket so that we could steer the Earth like a spaceship? Probably not. What we need is something like a moon or asteroid to pass close enough to the Earth for its gravity to alter the Earth’s orbit. I’m not sure how we could engineer that.
Psephos there are 4 issues with moving the Earth`s orbit.
Getting enough fuel for powering the enormous rockets that would be needed.
Attaching said rockets to the earth (with the rockets beyond the atmosphere) (they would have to be attached at the poles due to the Earth`s rotation).
Avoiding large space debris.
Other environmental consequences.
Chaps, I think you are ‘out there’ already with that new orbit idea. However, here is what Obama’s science advisor is thinking. His idea could be more feasible, if Copenhagen is a loser for the planet as expected.
Anyway, I favour a solution that doesn’t move us any closer to the Man From Planet X:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/5128109/Shoot-pollution-particles-into-atmosphere-to-cool-Earth-says-Obama-adviser.html
Well I’m sure these details could be worked out with some Treasury modelling. But I think the basic idea is sound.
I really don’t this is expected by any of the countries who are going to be the bigger players – more a perception by idiotic journalists.
What happened to terraforming Mars? we might need it sometime soon.
Has anyone else heard of putting solar panels in space? Gregg Easterbrook of Brookings is a big fan. Sounds a little ridiculous to me.
Fight pollution with pollution!
Nothing done about ocean acidification.
Obama’s advisor is John Holdren. Also the article says,
It seems to be saying that if things heat up as now seems inevitable given the world-wide failure of leadership, we’ll all have an unpleasant rash.
He’s saying that we need to avoid deploying our rashes.
Moving earth – shooting s-ite into the atmosphere
How about we all just put on sunglasses and were a hat?
were = wear
Psephos,
Mars ain’t the kind of place to raise your kids.
GG, no, but it would be if we terraformed it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terraforming
In fact it’s cold as hell.
Diogs,
All this science, I don’t understand.
Just trust us GG. We’ve never let you down before…
Does anyone OWN these planets or the moon? What happens when a module lands on Mars? Does it change anything? What about the moon?
I believe there is a treaty which says that outer space can’t be claimed by any country. We’ve landed several things on Mars and it doesn’t seem to have changed anything. But we haven’t been trying, of course.
Diog,
‘
“Just trust us GG”.
I think it’s gonna be along time till……..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzrKlEtxTx4
The emerging need for planetary re-alignment and/or stratospheric particle deployment can be avoided if we simply adjust our reduction targets to 50% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. Easy.
And we have now hit upon the “be alarmed, not alert” line governments should start broadcasting loudly and repeatedly to the populace at large:
It will be necessary to either: a) take a forced move to Mars (pack your own terra); or b) blast the planet a couple of million miles west c) blast a pile of garbage into orbit,
UNLESS and UNTIL they accept a slightly lower standard of living while we cool the planet.
I think it should do the trick. Hope someone from Cabinet is reading this.
My ideas for reducing the deficit in the budget.
Raise taxes on high income earners
Extent income tax to inheritance, income from trusts, and large gambling wins.
Extent corporate tax to trusts.
End dividend imputation (may include a corporate tax cut)
End the 50% capital gains tax exemption for property held for over a year.
Higher taxes on alcohol, tobacco and fuel.
Taxes on sugar (and similar products (e.g. fructose syrup)), salt and fat (oil, butter, margarine, etc).
End private health insurance rebate and abolish the “Medicare rebate’
Stop subsidising private schools.
Stop spending money on wasteful and counter-productive things like freeways.
This should also give the government enough money to
Extend Medicare to dentistry
Properly fund education and hospitals
Increase welfare payments
Provide the states with enough money for proper public transport
Meet the 0.7% foreign aid target
Undo some of the silly privatisation of the last couple of decades
Start building solar power plants to replace the coal and gas fired ones.
And we can make a reality show out of it!
‘Mars, next stop remodeling!’
No 74
Well, aren’t we all glad you aren’t in government with such an egregious list of imposts on hard working people.
GP, what’s your view of moving the Earth’s orbit as a solution to global warming? Or do you prefer the idea of terraforming Mars so we can all move there?
No 74
I’d also suggest you rename yourself “Tom the death knell of Australia”
No 77
Psephos, my view is that we should eject into outer space any person who make such obscene suggestions.
No 77
By the way Adam, are you the new representative of Maserati drivers?
?
LOL! Why am I not surprised!
CHECK IT OUT GP! TWENTY FIVE BILLION DOLLARS of MAJOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25451295-601,00.html
You’re government is delivering for you now!
This is EXACTLY the sort of things you think should be built using government borrowing. There is absolutely nothing left for you to complain about now.
Your Gravatar is similar to the Maserati logo: http://www.maserati.com/
LOL! I meant G.P.’s government!
The Maserati logo is a trident. My avatar is the Greek letter psi.
Shows On,
I compensate by having a well developed BS detector.
And mate, it’s on afterburners whenever you’re on the board.
I have BOTH an understanding of science and a BS detector, and I think it is BS that you are too lazy to understand science.
There is just no way this could be true. It has to be a reporting change but it still looks very grim for della Bosca.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25453336-5005962,00.html
Shows On,
Self praise is no praise. Being the Queen of cut and paste does not impress anyone of your scientific knowledge. You are nothing more than a dourly derivative dunce.
GG
Distemper shot due perchance?
In the immortal words of kamahl
“why are people so unkind”
Very surprised to read an editorial in today’s AUSTRALIAN in support of a Rudd Government initiative(Private Health Insurance). Turnball and Dutton must have choked on their Corn Flakes LOL
LOL! OK, so I guess this means you are taking back your assertion that you have a bullshit detection detector? It must be faulty anyway considering the quality of your posts.
OOOH!!! Alliteration! That HURTS SO MUCH!
To make you feel better, here is a cut and paste of your post:
And another one:
You know what is boring?
2 posters continuously having a shot at each other.
Shows On,
You seem a little flustered. Maybe you need to do a scientific study on your frail sensitivities.
I apologise. I have no idea what his problem is. He doesn’t seem to like the way I post, if that is the case he should just ignore them.
Accepted
The Leader of the Republican Party is leaving the GOP. How much lower can they go?
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/joe-the-plumber—-quitting-the-gop.php
Did I hear somebody mentioned the People’s Daily? This IS from the People’s Daily.
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90002/96417/6652080.html
In the USA’s Bible belt: “who lost China?”. In Japan’s Geisha belt: “Who lost Taiwan?”, while the Kimono and Toyota are falling apart.
Formosa is perhaps the i***l of the asia pacific?
Gus, got a soft spot for Kamahl. he sang the Elephant Song
mr. kamahl’s elephant song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiYEKRymTag
And she charges $100 an hour, bet the churches are kicking themselves at overlooking this nice little earner. Years ago a young church goer posed the query to me, what happens to the animals, I’d like to know that I could see my pet(s) again.
Barnaby up to mischief again.
Seeing as how it is Barnaby involved shouldn’t Xeno have said.
“You sell the phone rental not the phone company”
I’m not sure what Mr X is on about. We’ve already sold BHP and almost every other mining company. He must have missed that.
I think I have found my true calling.
Who needs humans when you can talk to animals instead
Who is this “we”, Senators? These are not state assets, they are private companies. If the shareholders want to sell, it’s nobody else’s business.
I know, instead of shifting the earth’s orbit, which is utter lunacy to even entertain the thought, we could send all the Green voters off in the direction of the sun so they can through giant ice cubes at it when they get close enough to it. We should provide business class flight to Oz, Diogs and Tom after his post at 76.
We can’t we just turn the sun down a bit?
Of course you know that’s not true.
I think the Treasurer has to approve foreign ownership over a certain amount, hence the fight between Turnbull, who doesn’t want China to increase it’s stake in Rio Tinto from 11% to 18%, and the WA Libs who do. The sole determinant Swan makes his decision on is whether it’s in the national interest.
Dio
I don’t think Mr X disputes the historical fact that minning assets have been sold in the past. I think he just doesn’t like it (in this instance anyway). So what point are you making? Is this just a round-about way of saying that you disagree with him? Or are you trying to suggest that because we’ve done it in the past that it must be the right thing to do and so Mr X must be wrong?
Well if we extend the earths orbit, we can add more days to the year and live longer, or die younger. :S
Yay, let’s sell BHP to foreign interests. It would get my vote.
Yes I know that’s the law, but my question is, from the point of view of a free market politician like Joyce, why should the government interfere with the free choice of shareholders? What national interest is served by having a mining company owned by one lot of shareholders as opposed to another lot? I think it’s a fairly good question in any case.
Psephos has got a point. If a chinese would be willing to offer you 3 times the value of your home, of course you should be entitled to sell. Although in that case profits would not be going overseas.
Adam says:
The animated sci-fi “Futurama” by the makers of “The Simpsons” dedicated an entire episode to this idea.
In the distant future, so the story goes, global warming is partly cancelled out by nuclear winter. Even so, in order to keep global warming at bay the authorities drop huge blocks of ice mined from asteriods into the sea to call us off. One day it runs out and global warming starts to get really bad again. All appears to be lost until President Richard M Nixon (actually its his head in a jar, brought back from the dead, Walt Disney style) gets all the worlds robots to go to the Galapagus Islands and vent their exhause into the the air like farts. This propels the earth further away from the sun and the day is saved. The added distance from the sun makes the year one week longer which Nixon declairs will be forever known as “Robot Party Week”. The real loser in this tail is science.
THM
I’m saying we’ve largely missed the boat on the whole issue. I’m neither agreeing nor disagreeing with him.
Psephos
Here are the arguments either way. The main argument against foreign ownership is national defense. There is also the ability of a foreign government to manipulate critical markets.
http://washdateline.mgnetwork.com/index.cfm?SiteID=wsh&PackageID=46&fuseaction=article.main&ArticleID=8089&GroupID=214
It is my utmost belief that current psephology is in danger of becoming stale. It needs to be promoted as a popular science, not just so knowledge can be expanded but for the good of democracy. If people were more aware of how elections and parties operate then they would be slightly less easily manipulated. Psephology needs to become hip and sexy if we are going to get the kiddies interested. Our poster boy, Anthony Green, could easily be made the subject of a personality cult if the right propaganda is spread. I’d like to see a prime time ABC television program dedicated to psephology co-hosted by Anthony Green, another bludger and a popular Australian comedian.
Lets face it, the majority of blogers on this site, myself included, are nerds. Nothing wrong with being a nerd, a lot of nerds have pride for their traits. However this nerd imbalance tilts our analysis towards nerd-centric outlooks. If we’re going to get the cool kids interested we need a sexier lexicon. Might I suggest for a start that we replace the ‘L’ in election with an ‘R’?
THM,
Speak for yourself. I’m too blanky old to be a “nerd”!
There are aging rockers, aging hippies and yes there are aging nerds too.
“the majority of bloggers on this site are nerds”
Speak for youself THM
My wife and kids just confirmed that I’m not a nerd. Evidently I need to be a bit more humble to be a true nerd.
MSNBC.com
Obama to revive military commissions, but with greater protections for prisoners:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30654216/
No, evidence obtained via torture will not be admissible.
My new little obsession. This should keep me busy for the rest of the year.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/membersgallery/repsgallery1901.shtml
Does anyone have any idea what Rupe intends to charge for his products on the net? I know how much I’ll be paying:
ZERO
The Silver Budgie has proposed a radical idea today – ‘government of the people, by the people, for the people’ – a rarity these days in our system. Only on the one issue of the republic though, I hasten to add. Can’t have direct democracy getting in the way of the big parties on the important issues, now can we?
Can’t have the voters getting used to it.
Yes, and by extension, an ‘immortal phrase’ we can only ever see with our two party system with such a suggested single dispensation. Brings into very stark relief the usual lack of any real ‘connection’ between members and their local electorate, doesn’t it?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/hawke-urges-free-vote-on-republic-model-20090509-ayi2.html
The Geisha Belt will not be pleased.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8039832.stm
Silver Bodgie
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bodgies_and_Widgies
Of course, bodgie – I must have been thinking of the budgie-smugglers he was wearing around the pool at the Terrigal conference in 1975.
Annabel Crabbe has an amusing column on the Rudd emissions trading sell-out today too:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/brag-now-pay-later–its-just-hot-air-20090508-axx8.html?page=1
Maybe you were confusing him with Kylie Minogue, the Singing Budgie.
well done herr doktor
the moustaches on some of those blokes are tres chic
BTW sir john downer (SA) is dollys granpappy I presume??
A real cross section of society in that lot Psephos!
Where is he? I can’t find him.
try the senate page
Possibly confusing Bob with Kylie, yes. Similar depth of conviction about them both.
Join in the chorus, sing it one and all ………
Sir John Downer begat Sir Alexander Downer and Sir Alexander Downer begat Alexander John Gosse Downer.
Don’t you love the “refused to confirm” line? So if they refuse to confirm anything about the budget it means there is a fair show it (whatever it is) will or won’t happen. They call this journalism. Amazing.
Are they the only dual reps/senate family??
Malcolm Fraser’s grandpapa is there too.
This same media has no trouble demonising single mothers when it suits them.
No, the Brennan bothers and the Kemp brothers served simultaneously in both houses.
Sir Keith Wilson was both a Senator and an MHR, and his son Ian Wilson was an MHR. Wilson was also a grandson on his mother’s side of Sor Langdon Bonython.
George McLeay was in the Senate while his brother John was in the Reps, and he was followed by his son John Jr.
These were, like the Downers, all South Australians. The SA upper class is very incestuous!
If you ever wondered what the bottom of the barrel looks like just watch this, all the way through. Republican media supporters have really really lost it, regressing to 5 years of age.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/05/08/obama-mustard-attack-beco_n_199953.html
without googling, which intrepid journo penned this line
On the subject of the first parliament.
How many electoral systems were used to elect it and what were they?
Surely it was Mr Tipple Milne
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25453650-5000117,00.html
He has just posted it within the last half hour.
Christ, aren’t you allowed to poke fun at Obama for conducting a silly photo op?
There was no mention of Heiner or cooling since 1998 in your quote, so that helped narrow it down
TP,
That HP piece on the mustard got “81″ pages of comments. The ones I read on the first page really got it and I expect nearly all the rest did too.
As one of the comments on HP said, the GOP are dying a slow death. When all they have is to attack the guy for what he eats, you know they are so very, very, very screwed.
That Milne article is dripping with wishful thinking.
I cannot believe people were stupid enough to fly a great big plane accompanied by jet fighter escort over the buildings of Manhattan. You would have to be thick as two bricks to think that was a good idea for a photo op. A little sign that some there are a bit out of touch with the real world.
Yes I had a browse through the 81 pages of comments. Pretty much the sentiment was feeling sorry for the GOP in getting so trivial… as this comment demonstrates…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/maternity-leaves-a-bun-in-the-oven-for-economy-20090509-aymd.html
Excellent.
If Maternity leave is introduced, the baby bonus should be scrapped.
I find it interesting that Milne says there’s polling done by the AHA so surprise! it finds that removal of the tax benefit for private health would hurt politically but doesn’t give any indication of what the polling numbers actually are.
Or, indeed, what the questions were – very important in a poll of this nature.
A bit twee.
GP, it was an ideological piece of Liberal Party claptrap in the first place created for electoral purposes rather than put a considered maternity leave in place. A poor piece of policy bought in without a means test that was part of the Howard government’s wasteful throwing of hard earned taxpayer’s money at the rich.
A ludicrous concept was the Baby Bonus that is one of the best reasons why the Liberals dwell on the the Opposition benches where their chances of introducing such hideous concepts are diminished.
GP158
I agree; that would be a fair compromise.
BTW, different topic but there is no Vic State thread at present:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/conflict-of-interest-raised-over-hulls-jumps-verdict-20090509-ayp9.html
The Vic racing industry is annoyed at the ban on jump racing. They say that Rob Hulls is conflicted because his wife is a lawyer who does animal welfare work. What nonsense! It is only a conflict if Hulls makes a financial gain, which he doesn’t. It is an influence if jump racing does harm the horses, in which case Hulls’ action is required under legislation. Hulls will find that the number supporting his action greatly exceeds those opposed. Stick to it I say.
I admit my own bias (though its not a conflict!) I consider the entire racing industry cruel, pointless and a front for those who live of gambling addicts. The sooner it dies the better.
Somehow I doubt the baby bonus was on the minds of many voters when they decided to not vote for the Liberals.
A refreshungly honest rebuttal of Ian Plimmers book in the Oz book review!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25433059-5003900,00.html
I’m speechless. How did this get past the editors??
LTEP, it was all part of the mix that proved that Howard was incapable of making decisions that were the best available at the time. I am not a big believer in single issues turning off voters but it was another in a long list of policies that could have been handled many ways but in the end the least productive and most inefficient choice was made.
“If Maternity leave is introduced, the baby bonus should be scrapped.”
I certainly hope so
I heard this morning that there is some report or survey that shows that a third of Labor voters will be prepared to change their vote if health benfits are touched. No details of who produced this figure though.
Hope all of you blokes out there leave the keyboards to do something nice today for your mum and/or your kids mum
…… Happy Mother’s Day 
the family is taking me to Sizzler for lunch 
GB @ 167,
That would be Bree and/or the young Libs in Pyne’s office back in Adelaide
Gary
Mrs D thinks the same. She’s really cross. She says Rudd should cancel, or further delay, the tax cuts for the rich and leave the health insurance rebate. I don’t care much myself.
Get the chuck buckets out. Milne’s in one of his “anyone can see that the government’s doomed {for the Liberal HQ Reason Of The Day}” moods on Insiders.
Best Vox Pop comment was the woman in Perth who said, “Why didn’t they give my Mum the $900 stimpac money?”
Why didn’t she?
The torture continues… when the only real story is how popular and trusted the government is, the only alternative story is how – from week to week, from spin to spin – they’re now in Big Trouble.
Juilem, Yeah, Happy Mum’s Day to all. Doing a sing and dance routine for the Mums and Families.
The deficit/debt will always be lower under the Coalitions.
Who do you trust?
BB it looks like Milne has been thrown a bit of Liberal Party polling to arrive at the conclusion Gary referred to earlier.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25454426-952,00.html
Juliem, hearts to hearts and hands to hands indeed. Happy mums day.
Hockey on the Insiders – smarta..se, shallow and more annoying by the minute.
170 – All I can say to Mrs D is put the Libs back in then and see what they will cut given their objection to this deficit. Could be jumping from the fry pan into the fire. Good luck.
How convenient the backlash is greatest in Queensland.
What are the proposed new tax rates going to be?
I doubt whether changes to healthcare will produce any such backlash of the extent Milne fantasizes about. It is hardly the ideal system at present and changes have been ongoing as far as I can remember.
As for breaking election promises, the problem Milne has here is that at State level Labor is pedantic about not breaking election promises so I’d be very surprised if this kite can be made to fly at the Federal level. Dream on Milne.
I sometimes wonder about the interest in The Insiders here. Does anyone know what its ratings actually are these days? Is it just political tragics? I have stopped bothering to watch it some time ago, unless I see in advance that there are panellists on it I am interested to hear.
steve the fact is that it allows the Tories to hold on to something and look as though they have a policy. It gives Turnbull a free kick 10m directly in front.
Is this dude really, really sorry or just sorry? Why doesn’t he clear the air and make a genuine apology? As if mere words can ever be enough to erase his personal shame and embarrassment and the further decline of the SA Liberals.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/08/2564538.htm
A good thing I avoided INSIDERS this morning, Milne is little more than a Liberal Party hack, and Barry Cassidy does little to disguise his hatred of Rudd.
COULD, not WILL but could. Weak as water.
Glen,
Too bad they are kicking the other way!
Glen, if the Tories had a good record of keeping their election promises then that would be true but once the core and noncore promise became a part of the Tory patter for acting as they did then it blunts the whinge to a big extent.
Unbelievable as it may seem, plenty of free kicks from 10m directly in front fail when push comes to shove. I’ll be watching for Turnbull’s quoting of Labor policy in his Budget reply speech to see if his ability matches the opportunity.
Well it just goes to show you that both political parties have non-core policies.
There’s been a few free kicks go astray so far, Alcops, medicare surcharge levy, ETS trading scheme…
Glen, perhaps you should move to the UK, the Poms are about to toss out Gordon Brown’s Labor Government. The latest polls have the Conservatives leading by more than 20 points, and it’s tipped that Labor will fall to an embarrassing 3rd place in June 4’s local government and European parliament elections.
Very likely there will be a challenge to Brown in the second half of this year.
No evan i think not, the Libs need every vote they have in Australia right now.
So you’re ok with it now Glen or you think they are both wrong?
Everyone is complaining about public health. So when the Labor Gov takes away partial rebate, for private health funds from top earners and puts it into public health, why is that not good?
I believe that their are about 43% in private health funds. How can that relate to ‘1 in 3 COULD change their vote’ if there is a change in the current health policy?
Funny thing Glen was when Wayne Swan said there would be howls of protest on budget night and promises would be broken, I thought that would be Glen and GP but I wonder how the rest of the country will react?
What was interesting: the letters page in yesterday’s AUSTRALIAN, actually a majority of respondents who agree that there should be a cap on middle class welfare.
Methinks Rudd & Swan are on to a winner here, despite the bleatings of the Liberals and the Poisoned Dwarf Milne.
History has shown that the definition of middle class welfare recipients is always someone earning slightly more than the person being asked.
Absolutely. I have a preference for a staggered cap such as the one being bandied about for the health care rebate. Sudden cut-offs are far too politically and morally divisive.
How funny was the chick on Insiders saying Swannie was a looker!!! hahahahahahahahahahahahaha
The only concern I can see is that they remove the partial rebate and then DOES NOT put it back into public health. I guess we have to wait till Tuesday night to see if that happens.
Hasn’t there already been a significant increase in money to public hospitals?
I remember an article earlier by an certain conversative commentator urging Rudd to break promises, if the circumstances require it.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/break-election-promises-save-jobs-20081013-4zry.html
Does it only apply to conservative policies?
Fran kelly milne bolt ackerman , you see the name or the face and know exactly their position on any politcal issue. So why waste time with them? Insiders is like days of our lives, it doesnt matter how many episodes you miss, you have missed nothing and it doesnt gdt any better.
Further on the budget, is Rudd really going to leave single parents out of the general pension increase ? After already leaving them out of the one-off $1400? If he does it will prove once again that this is not a Labor government’s bootlace.
They would apparently have to legislate to achieve this charming piece of discrimination against a core constituency – thankfully the senate would knock it back.
Please tell me this is a kite. Or have Conroy and the Deists taken over completely?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/solo-parents-face-hit-in-budget-20090509-aykd.html?page=1
Of course they’re not going to put it back into public health. Remember the reason/excuse for doing it is the GFC. They say they need to increase revenue because of the projected shortfall in company tax etc.
If they put it into public health, they will not have improved the Budget position and will have lied about the reason for doing it. That would make a broken promise explained with a lie.
I suspect so – but I don’t really know…..
Yes. There has been an increase in public hospital funding. It wasn’t much, about $600M which is the budget of a single big hospital for a year. We’re still always broke.
I guess my question is that if they do take this money out of the rebate, will the equivalent be going into the public health system? Seems like a natural swap to me.
Somewhere I saw the use of the term “force majeure” in relation to the global economy as it currently stands. This is an excellent means of justifying broken or delayed promises.
For the Opposition to deny this it would be folly.
BK and Yo ho ho
“Force majeure” would apply only if the “broken promises” Rudd made were broken because of the GFC. If he takes money from “private health” and transfers it to “public health”, it has nothing to do with the GFC.
JV @ 202
I will be very surprised if SPP’s are left out of the rise, the money saved wouldn’t be significant and the political price would be high.
Let face it the GFC is a perfect time (excuse) to do some needed reforms of Howard govt social engineering. A lot of Howard rebates and bonuses had no means tests and many were pocketed by people on multi-hundred thousand dollar incomes. It was a lot worse than middle class welfare – high time these dodgy handouts were either removed or limited to only those in need.
aa @ 209
That’s right. At approximately 350,000 single parents then even at $30 a week that is only $10.5 million extra. So it happens – big if – it could only be due to some sort of religious/moral imperative. But the outcry would be humungous – and rightly so. Probably just a bit of pre-budget Sunday space filling by the MSM.
Swan made the point this morning that single parents are getting twice the benefits of pensioners already.
Did the single parents miss out on the $900?
So robbing the rich to give to the poor in other areas doesn’t count? Isn’t this an over the top reaction by you JV?
Since we’re on health. Here’s the ALP’s election promise re hospitals:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/20070824-Crikey-Policy-Comparison-Pt-3-Health-care-.html
anyone heard anyhting about the referendum recently?
You mean the states haven’t agreed to “A National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission”?
Not sure GB – I assume they have, but has there been any decision made re “they’ve all agreed to it, so no referendum at the next election”.
Gary B – Targetting single mums and legislating to effectively reduce their pension when there is a general increase is not “robbing the rich”. They are not middle-class welfare recipients.
If Swan tried to justify this then the reports must be true. Bring it on in the Senate then.
Why are they bothering to bring on a sh*tfight when it’s only a drop in the ocean to give the increase across the pensioner board. Do I detect the ghost of the DLP and/or the strains of an Opus Conroy in this?
Check your calculator. Mine says $546m per year.
JV – where did Swan try to justify this?
What? So now not giving a raise is legislating to reduce their pension? Spin at its best there.
You still didn’t answer my question. Because of this one possible budget decision are you saying this government is not a Labor government’s bootlace.
Did the single parents miss out (like me) on the $900 and more in the last stimpac?
Scorpio –
I stand mathematically corrected Scorpio – which isn’t unusual – thanks. But as a proportion of the whole, still not much.
And targetting single mum pensioners for no increase – an effective reduction – just can’t be justified.
What great Labor shibboleth shined upon by the Light On The Hill says these struggling single mum pensioners deserve less?
Grog
Just going by Gary’s report of what Swan said at 212.
An interesting bit of deduction that, like the “he failed to gurantee therefore it must be so” argument.
Paid maternity leave not until 2011 =(
225 – Politically a good move. Keeps those within the tent somewhat happy and puts pressure on the Libs at the next election to say whether they will honour that introduction or not.
Howard’s middle class welfare handouts seem to have got those voters so atrtached to the public teat that they are all throwing a tanty now that it looks as though Rudd is going to pull them off it! Good example here.
http://www.news.com.au/comments/0,23600,25456516-2,00.html
Grog
That “On health, the buck stops with me” policy was BS and everyone knew it. I’m not even counting it as an election promise it was so ridiculous.
A government that makes a decision purely on its politics is not a strong or courageous one. You would hope that the government would do some things because the positive effects they would have, like paid maternity leave, not just so they can wedge the opposition.
The National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission has already been set up. No prizes for guessing how much it has achieved so far.
http://www.nhhrc.org.au/
I remember the interim report being released – didn’t it cautiously suggest a Federal takeover?
Yes it did.
From the summary – “Commonwealth responsible
for all primary health care”
I’m betting the Liberals will not be so generous….
GB
I’m saying that if they do this to single parents – and a reduction in real terms it is, effective immediately, relative to every other pension recipient – then it would be one more example of the distance travelled by Labor from lights on hills.
I mean, you probably aren’t going to agree (given your gravatar) that your party is these days a christian middle-ground government going about business much the same as the previous christian middle-ground govenment did. A bit of fiddling around the edges with ‘middle-class welfare’ doesn’t change that basic fact. Look at school education policy if you need an example of the reality of this fundamental shift from principle to centre-populism. What you call ‘politically good moves’ are the modus operandi of such governments, in place of fighting for principled policy through leadership.
And this pension proposal, if it does turn out to be in the budget, could have no basis but a moralistic aversion to single parents. And I don’t think my deduction from Swan today is completely unfounded. Why would he bother to assert this morning that single parents are already well catered for unless they were facing a hit on Tuesday? Did he feel the need to say the same about age or disability pensioners?
jaundiced view
How about you suggest the cuts and increases to spending you’d like to see on Tuesday. Just make sure you don’t use that calculator that was incorrect by 52 fold.
I can’t remember the previous government spending $14.5 billion to upgrade every primary school in the country.
What? The single aged pension is going to be increased, I haven’t read any reports of the couple pension being increased.
wouldn’t they come under the $900 for each child?
Steve K
The first increase I’d like to see for single parent pensioners in line with with that provided for other pensioners.
Agreed?
vera
Only going on that SMH article today. Not the most impeccable source, I know:
J V
In the first stimpac I know a single mum who has 4 kids and got a grand for each of them, she got $4000. The Daily Terror did a story on her with a photo of her 4 kids,
and Hockey had the temerity today to label the spending “julia gillard memorial halls”
just proves how out of touch the libs are
The very first policy that must go is the baby bonus. A truly ridiculous policy introduced by the Howard government to win votes. It only encouraged the ones who could least afford it to have kids. Of course my heart would genuinely go out to Sarah Murdoch and her like, given the GFC, who would be doing it extremely tough at the moment and would obviously miss the bonus much more than most.
Showson
Ah, a party talking point from the hymn sheet (’We will help all schools”) aimed at hiding the fact that this does nothing to reduce the proportion of public money gifted to private institutions relative to that spent on the public systems.
The draft of Swan’s speech is here:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2009/05/swans-speech-draft-covered-in.html
As for paid parental maternity leave, I don’t like it. Given the global recession, now is not the time for it to be implemented. How is it going to be funded? It will only place more costs on business. I am certainly against the introduction of such a scheme being funded by the taxpayer. It is ABSURD that someone’s taxpaying dollars is going to someone else who has more kids.
It’s a policy that is too far to the left for me.
Too far left? You’re compass is broken. It’s a policy that is in place in every country in the OECD except for us and the USA.
We need it to redress our massive emerging demographic problem. This policy should have been implemented 20 years ago.
Centre
Agree with both items on your hit list – I would add IVF in the health area as a gross waste of public money all in the name of vanity – the sacred right to propagate in one’s own image. I believe there is to be a slight capping of this on Tuesday, but not by much. The world propagates too many children.
The Age editorial makes sense
They have this to say about IVF
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/editorial/meanstesting-is-painful-but-fair-20090509-aylr.html
Yes JV. It is OUTRAGEOUS that a lower earning income couple must fund the parental maternity leave of a higher income earning couple if they don’t have as many kids. It’s silly!
Yo ho ho, it is a pleasure to disagree with you
See here’s the thing – our birth rate is below replacement level. Because of the baby-boomer cohort, we have a situation where in the next 15 years, the proportion of our workforce to dependents will create a great strain on the public purse.
There are two ways to solve this – one, through increases in immigration. The problem with this is that immigrants tend to migrate later in their working life (as opposed to someone raised here who theoretically gives their entire working life to the economy) and thus we have to continue increasing immigration as these people become part of the retirement cohort.
So the second option is to encourage people to have more children. As Australian women have had more opportunities in the workforce and in education, they have had less children – they can choose between children or a career to be crude. If the government creates a situation where people can afford to have children and continue their education/career, we can create a situation where the economy is better in the long term.
Grog
The Libs won’t be able to complain about Rudd not holding a referendum about taking over Health if they plan to campaign for a “No” vote. Rudd would be quite within his rights not to hold a referendum without bipartisan support as they never get up. And he could blame Truffles for it.
Of course, if Truffles says he’ll support the Feds taking over Health from the States, the Ruddster has got a problem.
Yo ho ho
The paid parental leave is only at the minimum wage for 18 weeks and only one other Western country doesn’t have it (I’m guessing it’s the US). I think Rudd should keep his promise on this one but delay it a bit, which is exactly what he’s doing.
vera
That’s exquisite, isn’t it? By that measure, Swan’s also ‘betrayed’ men and women with small er.. appurtenances by not offering public money for surgical enhancements.
To paraphrase a politician somewhere, sometime – one must never underestimate the capacity of self-centred people with an entitlement of nothing to demand everything.
Too true JV ‘ also just heard Swan on the news saying Single parent pensioners with 2 children got twice as much as a single aged pensioner in the first stimpac, which is true when you take into account the $1000 per child they received. All this BS about Single parent pensioners missing out getting nothing is blatent lies.
Dio – The Libs of course won’t take any position. They’ll just sell it as saying Rudd promised to fix the hospitals or take them over.
jv
That’s not true. All those surgical enhancements and cosmetic surgery type of operations are not, and never have been, covered. IVF has been covered so any change could be interpreted as a “betrayal” or at least a change of policy. I’m pretty sure from people I know who’ve had IVF that they are still out-of-pocket by thousands of dollars already.
Yo ho ho
Not so sure paid maternity leave is critical at present. Fertility rates are already way up – and the baby bonus isn’t the main reason for that either apparently:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/117701.php
There is absolutely no doubt that the Howard years were the Wasted Years. The Liberals can go on and on as much as they like about the deficit, but the real facts are that the Howard and Cossie tax cuts and middle class welfare given in the boom times were UNSUSTAINABLE in the long term.
The MSM don’t have it in them to admit it, but Tuesday nights deficit is the result of one thing, and one thing only, the sad Liberal Party’s mismanagement.
Agreed Dio – no one I’ve ever talked to has called it “sheap”.
In fact my anecdotal evidence is that most people can afford to try it one time round, but not twice. – So there’s always big stress of it working.
From what Paul Kelly was saying in Insiders this moring , his new book looks like it’s going to argue they can be called “The Golden Years”
???? errr make that “cheap”
Speaking of the MSM. I stumbled across the Sunday Telegraph today (I would never do my money by buying it). How are the following for positive headlines?
page 47. Rudd ready to rob not only the rich
page 109. Labor’s flawed Budget will prove disastrous
like the way bats piss is golden in a darkened cave?
Diogenes
I know, I know – that cosmetic surgery has never been covered (and realise I’m on your turf here!) – I’m saying that IVF is in the same category of need, and should therefore have the same low priority for funding. I understand that any loss of existing funding – however small – will be called ‘betrayal’ by potential recipients. However, that’s the luck of the draw. A gift in the past shouldn’t guarantee indulgence in the future. Of course, taking away what is being funded is always politically difficult for governments, but handling political difficulty is what they are supposed to be there for. Not giving in to every emotional minor claim for public funds in a time of crisis.
IVF is apparently very expensive to the health budget – I’ve seen somewhere costs to the community of between around $40,000 and $100,000 per IVF child – but can’t remember what those figures respectively include.
And you know whose opinion that was don’t you?
Ok, the budget is looking to be a tough sell.
Newspoll predictions? 52-48?
Grog
The point is that this budget is going to give the Libs a lot of free kicks surely they can’t miss them all.
I suspect Newspoll may actually go below 55-45 for once in many years.
The gloss will come off Rudd as he actually has to make unpopular decisions and this budget is one of them.
However i dont doubt for a second that Rudd will still be well ahead of the Libs.
Grog @ 260, only because of the mining boom. And we have got nothing to show for it EXCEPT unsustainable handouts that will cause future deficits. Well done Howie & Cossie. So much for their great economic management! Yeah blame Labor? PATHETIC!
Grog @ 265. I feel dirty enough repeating the headline, let alone who wrote the column.
And the one after that, 56-44 after people digest the Oppositions response which won’t contain any creditable alternative or policy and they realise that the country needs a responsible approach by the Government to alleviate the affects of the GFC and recession.
Oh forgot about front page:
Plan to bash rich may backfire
BUDGET BLUES HAUNT LABOR
I don’t believe Newspoll will move. It’s not out for another two weeks and there are some good aspects to the budget.
By the way Glen it has been 54 – 46 in this government’s time in office.
I am assuming that was under Nelson LOL!
I think it was Glen.
An outlier for sure. lol
Glen -
Newspoll 24-26 October 2008# 54 – 46
Newspoll 16-18 January 2009# 54- 46
roflmao priceless!
Hockey accuses the government of doing something about the recession:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/10/2565805.htm?section=justin
“[The Government] is using this line this mantra about it being a revenue collapse to mask their massive increase in spending,” he said.
How is it a “mask”?? They have promised to increase spending to fight the GFC!!
No doubt, if the opposition were in power, they would do nothing and just “wait and see”. So is it their official policy to do nothing about the recession? If their strategy is to just keep on banging the drum about debt then call the DD now I say. How long before we see that debt truck rolling the streets again?
When are the Liberals going to make the unpopular decision of ADMITTING that they would’ve borrowed money to plug the budget deficit?
When are the Liberals going to make the unpopular decision of proposing a coherent infrastructure policy, instead of suggesting that tax cuts will magically lead to greater tax revenues?
When are the Liberals going to admit that they wasted billions of dollars on middle class welfare, including corporate socialism such as the 30% hand out to the private health insurance industry, instead of spending money on desperately needed infrastructure like a national broadband network?
The LIBERALS are the ones who wasted the last decade giving away government hand outs instead of building infrastructure that will benefit EVERYONE.
Fair enough.
I’m not expert, but I think it’s worth noting that our most notable and reputable sources on this matter (Prof Peter McDonald and Bob Birrell) have both been calling for this to redress the demographic issues I outlined earlier through (amongst other things) paid maternity leave.
I suspect that high in fertility was a temporary situation based on sustained economic growth (as Lattimore hpothesises). We may never see sustained growth of that nature for some time. With this in mind, we need to address the structural impediments to increased fertility. Paid maternity leave is amongst these solutions.
As Diogenes said, Rudd has decided to delay implementation, and most people are comfortable with this. It’s not the worst situation (assuming it is actually implemented in 2011).
Like most of the best lines here, pinched from Monty Python
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxXW6tfl2Y0
By the way, who can spot the *historical error* in that sketch?
GB @ 223,
Don’t know but if I understood the terms of the last stim pac correctly, it shouldn’t happen. It was pretty clear (to me) that the only boundaries on who got it and who didn’t were the taxable income limits (below 80,000 all of it and above 80,00 it was phased out). Don’t remember the upper limit of the phaseout but thats because it didn’t apply to our family so not a number I need to know
238 Vera,
Yes, the amounts per child (as in the last stim pac here, where limits were set around ‘taxable income’) mean that the married or single status of the parent were irrelevant. I’ve still got 2 children living at home irregardless of whether I’ve a partner or not
Dunno, but interested in what it is.
Hello Bludgers – back from Bali.
So nothing has changed in 2 weeks? Malcolm is still popular as ever, the avuncular one is still getting his talking points from Fox News?
Swannie is using Possum’s spiffy thingo to target the budget and the usual suspects are writing the same crud in the same news outlets.
Nasi Goreng and Bintang please.
They address the Prince Regent as “Your Majesty,” which is used only for the Monarch and his consort, rather than “Your Royal Highness.”
Prince Regent = Prince of Wales, oops.
Ah, excellent.
I just watched insiders (I know I know) can you help me out?
Barry was interviewing Hockey and asked “will people on a combined 150k really leave PHI because of a loss of $7 a week” (or something like that) and Joe say’s “well depends, $7 a week is a lot if your unemployed”
Que? Where can I get $150k and be unemployed…anybody anybody?
Juliem, good on your Roos!
switched back and forth between 7 & 9 news, 9 very positive reporting on Parental leave whereas 7 were trying their hardest to put it down.
Agreed – I read the first paragraph – more than enough for me.
a a I thought you were joking – then I read the transcript:
Fub fudge dunno…
Did anyone notice how Hockey kept referring to the Government as “this mob”?
He has a lot of class that one…
I never watched Sunrise in the days when Kev and Joe did a double act but it seems like Rudd would have been the smart one and Joe would be the idiot sidekick
just there for comic relief. am I right? 
I’ll predict a small, within MoE, rise for the ALP in polls after the budget.
“Did anyone notice how Hockey kept referring to the Government as “this mob”?”
Hockey has been reading this blog.
pshepos
ever read any oscar wilde perchance??
Me too
The polls will turn. The MSM are too powerful. Their maticulous and factual journalism will sway us all.
2PP ALP 49% – LNP 51%
AHHAAHHAAHHAAHHAAHHAA OOOAHHAAHHAAHHAA
http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/Media/LatestNews/tabid/110/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/159/Changes-to-Medicare-levy-surcharge-adds-to-the-bad-news-for-Australian-Families.aspx
Turnbull 15th May 2008.
I predict Malcolm will say a similar thing on Thursday, even though he was wrong a year ago.
Gusface, I read nearly all of Wilde at one time or another… a long time ago now.
ftp://psephos.adam-carr.net/docs/countries/a/australia/membersgallery/22.jpg
Adam the Dees played well out West just fell short by 8 points.
Considering I thought we’d be flogged that is a top performance.
Melbourne did very well Glen. They’re really not that far off. I think they show more promise than Richmond.
291 Vera,
The end couldn’t come soon enough. I thought it was running an awful long time in the 4th and read on the net this morning at the grounds the clock went 37 and change as there were 41 (!!!) stoppages in the 4th quarter.
Can you imagine Jenkins having a QT session this week where he has 41 disruptions between imaginary points of order and having to chuck out the Libs?
….. Unfortunately, I will have to catch QT this week in the p.m. here in Perth on A-Pac (if at all). Flat out this week between several different activities, not a quiet week at my place …..
Losing is losing. *Mutters darkly*
juliem, you can always watch question time in the House of Representatives on the Parliament website at this link:
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/house_news/Index.asp (then click the ‘Question Time’ tab).
Is ABC showing the Senate or the HofRs?
I can imagine Dutton will be spending a bit of time at the dispatch box.
I don’t believe it is as simple as “losing is losing”. There is losing and there is loooooosing. Thrashings week after week are losing and give you no hope for the future. Close losses give you hope that you will win some games.
Hey Adam, I can’t log on to your link at 301. Password needed!
I’m assuming it will be Senate Monday, Tuesday House of Reps (Budget), Wednesday (Senate) & Thursday Reps for the response.
Dutton ought to be spending his time doorknocking in Albany Creek. He’s going to need every friend he can find come judgement day 2010.
Senate Question Time is broadcast only on Mondays and Thursday. Tuesdays and Wednesdays are House days.
Just further on the amazingly brilliant maticulous factual journalism of the MSM, in todays Telegraph on page 47 para 3 reads “The truth is, we will all be hit – and you’re about to pay back that $900 stimulus cheque, with interest.”
So if we are about to go into deficit because of the cash stimulus payments that will take years and for the next generation to pay back, how are we about to pay the $900 back with interest in this budget?
Column 2 para 3 reads “Taxes on alcohol and cigarettes – for which low-income earners pay a higher proportion of their income – will rise.”
So it’s alright for the Coalition to introduce a regressive tax, such as the GST, where low income earners pay a higher proportion of their income, but not for Labor?
How do you guys read this sort of stuff???
I don’t.
Ah, that’s because I copied the ftp link and not the http link
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/membersgallery/22.jpg
You do wonder why the people at the DT, and the HS in Melbourne, and the CM and the West and the Advertiser etc etc, bother with all this stuff. They’ve been pumping out their anti-Labor rhetoric for decades, and it makes absolutely no difference to how people vote.
I’ll be taking a longer shower tonight GB.
Psephos,
I asks meself the same question. You often hear how newspapers are in decline. You reckon they might serve up a more varied fare that could possibly interest a wider audience and therefore expand the potential market. But no, they seem to want to take the money of a selected few. Strange business.
The MSM’s worst fears were realised on the 24th November 2007 and they have now turned feral!
I think the answer must be that most of the working-class readers of the tabloid dailies get all the news as they want from the TV, and they barely skim the headlines in the papers before turning to the sport section. Ackerman and Bolt think they are reaching millions because they write for high-circulation dailies, but I suspect only a small hard core of people who already agree with their views actually read their stuff.
The DT caters to the hatd filled lib supporter and hate filled journo. It is their porn. They read it in private.
Such people could learn a lot from the sense of benign tolerance exhibited by this site’s Labor supporters to the other side of the political fence.
Is this something along the lines of which you speak, Centre?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25453952-5001030,00.html
Don’t bother to read the rest, it gets worse.
Yes Scorpio @319. According to Glen Milne in his column on page 107, it is the voters’ hope in Rudd that has been sustaining him in the opinion polls. Hope in the voters’ own minds that in throwing out the Coalition in Nov 2007, they made the right choice.
Hope – they made the right choice in kicking out the Coalition – HILARIOUS!
The DT has a circulation of over 400,000. There aren’t that many hate-filled Liberals in Sydney. Most of its readers are Labor voters. They either don’t read or don’t believe most of what the DT writes about politics. They flick through the news pages, maybe read the human interest stories, then turn to the sport. I’m sorry if that sounds patronising but I think it’s a fact. The bulk of the population gets its news from the TV.
Me thinks thou dost exagerate slightly there, William.
Still, much tolerance is shown than that of many of the MSM tabloid opinion pieces which constantly refuse to publish comments from Labor supporters on their web sites. Except for a small chosen few who sneak an odd comment through.
On the other hand, if they cut rip against KRudd etc with total unsubstantiated nonsense, then they publish it with relish.
And they listen to 2UE & 2GB as well.
I agree Psephos. The Tele readers would read the headline and then skip the page.
The DT has a great crossword puzzle page, otherwise I’d rather rely on the SMH for news.
Here’s a classic DT description of a serious subject. I wonder just what do most readers think about the DT’s examples of dissemination of news and information to the masses? Love the header.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25449348-5001030,00.html
There is a basic conflict between the ambitions of media owners and commentators, on the one hand, and human nature, on the other. Not many people are inclined to spend their time reading, watching or listening to things they don’t like. They prefer to live in a comfort zone of news and opinion that confirms what they already think. Most people who read Bolt or Ackerman, or listen to Alan Jones or whoever, do so to have their prejudices reinforced. I doubt any of them have ever changed the way anyone votes. (The same is true on the left, of course. I doubt many conservatives find Philip Adams very amusing.) That’s why internet media is growing so fast, because people can find boutique media like Fox or HuffPo that caters to their particular views. IMHO the influence of media generally, and print media media in particular, on how people vote is vastly overrated. Most people vote in what they understand to be their own economic interest, and that doesn’t change much, which is why voting patterns in Australia have been so stable for so long.
306 ltep,
thanks, mate, but I already knew that
….. places I will need to be this week (in no particular order and not all inclusive) don’t have access to a computer 
…. the lawn bowls green, a hospital, freeway traffic between home and said hosptital …..
308,
and there are losses you expect and losses you don’t expect. our loss to Richmond was the latter. our loss next week to Geelong is the former
….. the ones you don’t expect and don’t see coming hurt much, much worse 
Well if the DT choose to write what they do (it’s their paper, they can write what they like), they should not be ashamed to have their comments scrutinised.
I’ll go with the logic of using the DT only for sports news access …. the HS is the Melbourne party to that mob and I religously check the footy news there in season; use the website for very little else …..
Which is where Newsradio 585 will come in handy
Well, if the right blame Rudd for the recession then he has reduced our GHG output significantly as a result I would think
evan14,
don’t trust the smh either (personally), in Sydney a left leaning laborite like myself is screwed either way. didn’t purchase much in the way of newspapers when we lived in sw sydney ……..
Frank 336, thanks for that, will file it away …
337,
LOL
It’s the willingness to see any topic from another perspective that I find so heartening.
couldn’t agree more
Dio, seeing anything from the other side doesn’t mean you have to (1) believe the other side or (2) stay on the other side
…… “benign tolerance” is probably a good apropos description of where I’m coming from personally 
“yeah, I see the grass on your side of the fence and sure, it looks like good grass, but mine is greener and I’ll stay here thanks”
juliem, never except the seemingly inevitable, our beloved Roos will prevail at Kardinia Park.
Agree that media influence is vastly over-rated as a vote changer but they do set the scene for what is discussed and what isn’t. When was the last time you heard or read about housing affordability from a tenants’ rights perspective?
“Such people could learn a lot from the sense of benign tolerance exhibited by this site’s Labor supporters to the other side of the political fence.”
I think that “benign tolerance” is a wonderful thing and is a worthy position to take during the kinds of discussions occurring here as it promotes the free expression of ideas hopes and dreams.
Of course, once the other side have freely expressed their hopes and innermost cherished desires, they should be crushed mercilessly underfoot like the undesirable vermin the particular ideologies they identify with show them to be.
Not that i still harbor any bitterness towards the right wing for the Howard years or require further therapy!
William will know more about this but my limited understanding from published studies is that anything in the print media which is identified as being promoting one party over another doesn’t influence voting habits. It just reinforces their own predilections but never changes any votes. It can increase voter turnout though, which is irrelevant in Oz.
See “Handbook of political communication research” by Lynda Lee Kaid
“Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Id agree that the print media really dont have much affect. I think it is really (and unfortunately) the sound byte type stuff that makes up the TV evening news bulletins is what gets to most people, and even then they are taking most notice of the things that reinforce their own prejudices.
Will be interesting to see how the polls go post budget. That’s one time of year where people do seem to engage (and probably look to the print media for detailed analysis) as decisions are made that impact them directly in the wallet.
Hahaha ZING.
I have a feeling the female vote is about to firm for the ALP
I am imagining the appearance of a lump in your cheek Wiiliam, indicating something firmly planted there.
And The Baby Bonus will only be retained for Stay at Home Mums, and Paid Maternity Leave only for incomes up to $150,000 as well.
Your grasp of Communications Theory 101 sounds as good as my own, Diogenes. The theory goes that the news media do not directly shape people’s opinions for precisely the reason Psephos states, i.e. people screen out messages which are inconsistent with their prejudices (”selective perception”, as the jargon would have it). These prejudices are largely socially determined and are little influenced by the media. The rise of what Psephos calls the “boutique media” in the internet age seems to bear this point out very nicely. However, the media does influence the salience which people attach (or don’t attach, as the case may be) to various issues depending on the emphasis they place on them, hence “agenda setting”. These days it’s fashionable to argue that this can be very powerful in its way, as the public can be “primed” to attach salience to issues which are perceived as strengths for one side or the other.
What a thing to say, Winston.
William,
this equates to the mute button on my remote
…….
William
Thanks for that. So if we consider politics as a war, the print media helps decide what battles will be fought on which battlegrounds but doesn’t influence the outcome of the battle. Very interesting.
344,
Excepting Port, we were the next most recent victory AT Geelong but you have to go back a few years ….. While I am always on the hunt for the holy grail of “perfect tipping” (have never yet found it), I reckon that if I tip them and they lose and I don’t tip them and they win; I would be much happier going 7/1 and have my team take 4 points
.
I agree, which is why even if, as many here assert the ABC is biased, (which it isn’t) it wouldn’t really matter that much.
Most Australians vote the way their parents vote. Most swing voters had one Labor voting parent and one Liberal voting parent.
Oh, and I don’t see how “Parental Leave Gets Thumbs Up” is an example of anti-government bias:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/10/2565830.htm
For example, theorists got very excited about the fact that George Bush Sr’s popularity sank like a stone after the Gulf War when the media agenda shifted away from foreign policy and on to the economy. Bush’s rating as “best to handle foreign policy” remained very high, but it ceased to do him any good.
Maybe because it supports the ABC’s bias towards Feminist issues
And the media seem to have a particular hunger of for inciting and promoting leadership battles withing the major parties. I’ve always found it strange that when one of those feeding frenzies is on they will almost ignore policy debate, or try and convince people to see EVERYTHING that happens in relation to policy in the context of leadership (which is what the journo’s seem to really want to focus on).
But what came first? The media shifting on to other topics, or the war simply coming to an end, which meant they had to report other things?
I thought parental leave means both parents can get it?
Closer to home a more recent example is the WorkChoices issue in the 2007 election. Despite the tens of millions spent on advertising, opinion about Workchoices didn’t actually change much. What changed was the importance of IR as an election issue.
William is your 353 about the print media or the media in general?
If the latter, and we accept Diogenes’ “war” analogy, then where do people actually get their information upon which they formulate their own positions?
#362: The war coming to an end of course, but perhaps that need not have happened. Maybe he could have ordered the troops on to Baghdad and rode the hosannahs all the way to polling day.
So when one side has *no* perceived strengths, the media is completely impotent?
Most people form their opinions based on the views of others we know personally, especially people we admire or consider well-informed. Community leaders, such as priests etc, are also very influential.
Surely parents are by far the most important influence of this sort.
Quite so, Diogenes, which is the sort of thing I had in mind when I referred to viewpoints being “socially determined”.
Oz: the original studies showing people weren’t much influenced by the media were conducted during and after WW2 and were mostly concerned with the print media, and nuances about “agenda setting” and “priming” emerged largely in response to the television age.
Musrum, I take that as a dig at the Coalition – however, the asylum seeker issue still seems to be one that is viewed as a Coalition strength. Certainly Kevin Rudd seems concerned that this might be so, judging by the pitch of his rhetoric following the maritime incident a few weeks ago.
Yes indeed, priests touch many of us in ways that others do not.
Musrum
If you follow that theory William talks about, it follows that the media would want to stage the battles on favourable Liberal ground. There were only two issues the Libs were ahead in at the last election; economic manager and national security.
The Libs have lost both of these now. The media don’t have a single issue that the Libs are ahead in.
And what have been the two issues the MSM has piled onto the Liberals on and kicked the crap out of them? Julie Bishop for helping lose economic manager, and Turnbull for moving to the left of Rudd on Defence.
Oh yeah, I forgot about asylum seekers. The Libs are ahead on that.
I think something along the lines of who controls the emdium controls the mindset
In howards case he thought the print/radio medium was his and he was controlling the mindset
the web was the new medium that labor owned and consequently controlled the mindest
the parallel is menzies V chifley
where menzies grabbed the new medium of radio
whilst chifley was still for tub thumping as the medium
In what way does Labor control the internet?
I’ve not heard this before. Radio (or wireless as it was called in Australia) was not a new medium during the Menzies-Chifley period. You may be confusing this with the often-recounted story of Menzies’s skillful use of TV during the 1963 campaign against Calwell. Menzies was the first PM to deliver his policy speech in a TV studio rather than at a public meeting, and it was a great success. Calwell was an old-fashioned orator who didn’t like or understand TV, whereas Menzies took to it immediately. This is decribed in Don Whitington’s insightful book “The Rulers: Fifteen Years of the Liberals” (1964), which I recommend.
not the internet brains, the web thingy melange of information
and in an informal biased way.
that is in no way proprietorail, much like menzies and later howard (and by extension the coalition) ruled the airwaves yet didnt actually “own” radio
ShowsOn @ 369,
Yes, parents do control this information flow to a large extent but it isn’t the only factor in determining ones vote as an adult. A spouse can also have a large influence. This happened in my family. I’ve got a sister 2 years younger than I who was influenced to the dark side by the man she married and his family. However, this seems to not always work as Maria Shriver hasn’t let it faze her one bit
Because the conservative side doesn’t! QED…
*exit*
david day mentions in his essay :
‘chifleys biggest defect..the low priority he gave to the presentational PR side-had contributed substantially to the outcome’
“‘by july 1943 menzies had made 80 such weekly broadcasts,modelled on roosevelts btw’
which put him in good stead for when he would nneed to present himself again”
allan martin
and further I believe the Mobilephone will be the new medium.
but dont tell the libs
watching the whitehouse correspondence dinner speeches.
Australia needs something like this. Seriously.
then again Glen Milne after a few frothies…
maybe not
Neither our politicians nor our journalists are witty enough to make such a thing work.
Golly
I go off for a fortnight to look at what real bark beetles do to real conifers and come back to find what?
Howard came up with 0% of nothing.
Rudd is up to maybe 25% of nothing, which we are now being asked to believe is much better than 5% of not now, or 15% of nothing.
Problem too hard for Howard? Solution too hard for Rudd?
Spot the difference between nothing and nothing? The HowRudd covergence thrives. The basic operating principle is the same:
‘Do nothing to upset King Coal who is mainly responsible for sending all the CO2 into the atmosphere.’
Perhaps entirely co-incidentally, perhaps not, the other thing that is converging on 0% of nothing much is the amount of useable water in the Murray Darling Basin storages. Down to 9%. The good April rains mostly disappeared into the dust so there was not a lot of run-off. If Australian climate change policy is down to keeping our fingers crossed, then it should be good enough for the the Murray Darling Basin, so maybe if all we Bludgers keep our fingers crossed something good will happen.
Old King Coal was a merry old soul
A merry old soul was he
He called for his pipe
He called for his bowl
He called for his fiddlers three.
BTW, the bark beetles do kill conifers stone dead. It is impressived stuff to see whole stands of dead trees, and it sort of reminded me that while the big things hog all the climate change coverage, it may just be the little things that are going to really suprise us.
Swan’s got two problems to try to overcome on Tuesday night, Howard’s top of the boom spending and simultaneously reduced revenues from the GFC. His third problem they forgot to mention is a rabid, uncooperative senate.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/howard-to-blame-for-horror-budget-swan-20090511-azel.html
Priests aren’t influential, only their organisation is influential thru changing govt policy not changing people’s opinions. In times when church attendance is at 4% and falling their words will not influence many, their big successes are in govt policy like the restrictions on RU486 and family planning. They have lost credibility, like past organisations such as the democrats and DLP.
Glenn Milne’s been eating his Weeties again in the OO.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25457605-33435,00.html
Now our so far miniscule unemployment (which actually fell last month) is all the fault of Rudd, Swan, Gillard, Glen Stevens some other minister whose name I’ve forgotten plus, of course… Therese Rein!
Milne’s Message For The Day: They shoulda seen it coming.
For 16 months (conveniently all of them since Howard was despatched to the sidelines) some indicator or other called “the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations leading indicator of employment” buried deep within Gillard’s departmental paperwork has been ignored. This indicator, if it has 6 successive falls, apparently means there’s a downwards turn on the way in employment. So, subtract 6 months from 16 and you get that for the last 10 months, since July 2008, for God’s sake, Rudd should have known there was a recession coming and that the “the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations leading indicator of employment” was the one and only indicator that he had to take notice of… but didn’t.
This is where Therese Rein comes in. You’d have thought she would have noticed something amiss among all the record low unemployment figures that really meant the opposite. One night in the Lodge double bedroom why wasn’t there a little pillow talk on the subject:
“Honey, that was great, but the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations leading indicator of employment has been falling for six months already. I think we’re in for a recession.”
So the frumpy First Lady is just as much to blame for the mess we’re in as her nerdy husband.
For make no mistake: Milne’s argument is that if Rudd & Co. had realised what their own figures were telling them we’d have no unemployment now and very little in the future. In fact, since “the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations leading indicator of employment” is so infallible, if the World had just browsed through the department’s dry papers a little earlier maybe the entire Global Financial Crisis could have been avoided.
“I’m {insert name of G8 World leader here}. Everything is going swimmingly. We’re richer than ever today in July 2008. The only dark cloud on the horizon is the Australian Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations’ leading indicator of employment. It’s trending down and has been for 6 months…”
In a way it’s reassuring that the conservatives’ arguments are reduced to squabbling about the margins: that Australian unemployment – already one of the lowest in the world in the midst of a crisis – might have been just a tad lower if Rudd (and his wife and that other cow, Gillard and that incompetent Stevens) had read what was right in front of them, and what had been right in front of them since just after Howard was chucked out of office. Bad numbers, entirely within Rudd’s term, Therese Rein, Julia Gillard, the Reserve Bank et al. They’re all in it as Glen mounts another massive hit against the government, just like all the others from his brilliant past career have Rudd, at last, on his knees.
I guess the question to be asked is whether or not Mr Milne would have thought it prudent to have announced $50 billion in stimulus in July last year?
Why do they have to bring Rudd’s wife into this, again?
Milne really is a nasty piece of work!
centre
The studies on opinions that I was referring to were mainly from the US, where priests (individually and collectively) have a lot more influence than in Oz.
Budget saving move here in WA …..
A good piece on budget prospects at the ABC with Access Economics stating a view that is balanced (i.e. not flattering to either side). He feels tax rises are inevitable:http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2565983.htm
I like these quotes:
“The developments of recent years were absolutely sweet for the Budget. Now as the boom turns into bust we are increasingly seeing just how much we spent during the good years.”
“Both sides of politics went to the last federal election promising unsustainable and unaffordable policies off the back of boom-time revenues. Now the boom is gone. As Warren Buffet has said, you never know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.
“Well the tide has well and truly gone out on Australia’s Budget and we have a big deficit even after the crisis is over.
Rudd and Swan should lay the groundwork now for future tax rises, not just introduction of means tests and repeal of middle class welfare.
I’m still yet to see the repeal of “middle class welfare”.
Sorry, but means testing rebates and the like at $150,000 is not rolling back middle-class welfare.
Unfortunately I think even if the Government had the courage to try and tackle ‘middle class welfare’ head on they’d have little to no chance of getting the changes through the current Senate.
395,
Oz, what limit of dollars would you set if not $150,000?
Lovely day!
The one thing the media had to grudgingly admit was a plus from the Budget has been taken away before it was ever given (if you get what I mean):
http://www.theage.com.au/national/maternity-scheme-may-weigh-in-200-million-lighter-20090510-az9q.html
Maternity scheme may weigh in $200 million lighter
It’s apparently been cut back before it’s even been put on the table.
Why didn’t Therese Rein say something? I mean they want her to be monitor of “the Australian Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations’ leading indicator of employment” to hubby, Kevin, even though she’s been hounded out of the Australian employment market by the very same people calling on her to know everything about it. Well, she’s a mother too, isn’t she? She should have known…. something… at least about families and whispered in the PM’s ear. Gillard’s no use: she’s barren. But Therese.
Wait till Pies gets a hand on this one.
This is all fantastic and will leave a lasting legacy on all- the maternity leave package- and they are retaining the baby bonus, unbelievable. i thought they would scrap that. how generous!!! The UK has 26 weeks but only 100 pounds a week (that was in 2004 not sure if it’s gone up). The australian system is way more generous
The NAB has a new style banking just for poll bludgers.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25458591-462,00.html
Yes Bill I love the headline in the Age- maternity leave slashed. Get off the drugs guys, and your head out of the coalition’s arses. They’ve got their heads stuck right up there and all they can smell is shite.
Oz
I wasn’t suggesting that all the middle class welfare (pork for Howard’s whingers) was gone. I was pleased about what had already been announced as going as a step in the right direction.
BB
I wouldn’t fret. At least teh debate has moved to the point where people are accepting the need for some harder measures and people like Access Economics are questioning if we are being hard enough. If the coalition opposes tax measures like alcopops again this time Rudd should call the DD. Turnbull has dug his own grave.
Steve
The NAB really must be run by geniuses. Naming a bank the “nab” is a bit like naming a new 4WD model “the guzzler” or an elective surgery procedure the “walletectomy”.
Have just been reading the readers’ comments on the “Swan Blames Howard” story in the Tele.
Wow! I didn’t know there could be so much hatred out there. It seems that very few accept that tax receipts have fallen dramatically in this financial year, and that they blame the entire coming deficit on Rudd. All of it.
This is actually a dangerous line and I’ve heard it repeated recently, even by some who voted Labor at the last election. There seems to be a superstitious belief out there (out here?) that whenever Labor gets into power it’s automatic that the nation will go into deficit pretty soon afterwards. It’s not based particularly on reason, but it’s a real belief. Hard for Labor to shake off, I’d say, if even some of their supporters are thinking it, and expressing it.
Serves you right for reading the DT. What did you expect to find at the DT readers’ comments section? Why don’t you just go and read the Liberal Party website and cut out the middleman? See last night’s discussion on the cycle of mutual reinforcement between the right-wing tabloids and their readers.
I don’t read the comments section on any story. It’s just filled with rubbish and talking points written up by bored staffers usually.
BB
It might be timely to remind peopel that, right up to the last election campaign, it was Howard who was promising to tax less and spend more, contrary to the specific warnings of Glen Stevens and a few other honest public service economists. That is why we had inflation.
Whereas it was Rudd who called an end to the silly game of outspending each other.
BB that’s an old one, “I voted Labor last time but won’t be next time” etc These people have never voted Labor in their lives I’d bet. You hear the same thing on late night ABC talk back radio where the supposed ex Labor voter goes on to sing directly from the Lib songsheet. They are so transparent
Just lurking.
Nothing seems to change. The MSM continues its efforts to complete the idiotisation of the nation. After the last fed election I finally gave up on the lot of them – including the ABC. Made the mistake of tuning in to ABC2 this morning and turned it off as soon as that poltroon they have in Canberra began his smirk-ridden commentary.
Thank goodness for you lot. Keep it up guys!
BB
There is ample evidence of the falseness of the claim that the deficit is Rudd/Swan’s fault. You can even go back ot the 2004 election campaign and find the submissions by the Business Council of Australia calling for more spending on infrastructure and training to eliminate a skills shortage even then (still ignored by Howard). The trouble is most people forget quickly (like the 1982 debt under Howard as treasurer) and many don’t even bother to read this stuff at the time, so its easy to get myths out there, unless they jarr against people’s reality at the time. Hence the coalition saying that we had never had it so good while interest rates were climbing was an unwise lie (too easily countered by reaility). But saying who is to blame for the debt – who knows?
There is no point spending too much time arguing who is to blame thouhg. Better to have a solution, adn point out that Turnbull and some coalition senate hypocrites blocked revenue measures in the budget (alcopops) just one year ago.
The DT readers have been feral for some time. The shock would be if anyone supported the government on their blogs. Not worth the paper they’re writing in.
I’m fast becoming a Heather Rideout fan. She was on 10 news talking very favorably about the paternity leave scheme and when the newsreader mentioned that the Libs were now going to have one of their own she said it was a bit late and why didn’t they do it when they were in govt. She said with a smile that they had missed the boat on this one
Mumble feels malcolmtent has finally jumped the shark
I tend to agree, bye bye malcolm hello ???
Until the magic leadership rounabout stops spinning the libs have no chance.
oops
I meant to include the header
She’s very much a pragmatist
Former NSW Labor Treasurer Michael Costa on Sky Nooz slamming Rudd and Swan, the budget, and their economic credibility, and says he’s never had confidence in them…
And now he’s ripping in to the stimulii as disasters and using Liberal Party lines, it didn’t save a single job etc etc (did he miss the latest jobs figure?).
Why did he ever join Labor?
Tell me, what did Costa do for NSW again?
Could we be getting over the worst of things?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/business-conditions-improved-in-april-20090511-azvw.html
Costa is a goose
No, a rat.
Wishful thinking from the “rat” one term govt lol
Ask not, what Costa did for Labor (or NSW). Ask rather, what did Labor do for Costa? At least, I suspect that is the way he always saw it.
How about a goose-rat?
He’s a tool for the likes of Sky to have 2 “Libs” instead of one for each side
For arguments sake, if unemployment rises by 0.5%, who could possibly say if it didn’t rise by 1.0% if there wasn’t a stimulus package? We can’t tell the gross swings, only the net swing. And people like Costa and GP ignore this.
Vera
I think there are a few good reasons to believe the recession will not get any worse and will not become a depression. Govt action here and (more importantly) in the USA has stabilised credit markets and credit is flowing for markets. However, there is usually a lag of up to a year for that to flow onto business activity on the ground. Also, we won’t go straight back to business as it was before because a lot of people lost their capital and it will take time to rebuild. Plus, we now realise some of the things done before were pretty stupid risks and shouldn’t be done again.
So overall, I think things won’t get much worse, but will only get better slowly.
Socrates so long as unemployment only rises by a slight margin each month before it starts getting better I’ll be satisfied. (as will the govt I’d think)
Gary,
I quite enjoy Malcolm Farr’s contributions to the Daily Terror. Some of his posters are highly intelligent and make cutting points.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/real_economic_driver_mr_and_mrs_average/
If the last week proves anything, its that the Rudd government cant win with the MSM. Retail sales stronger than expected, unemployment down, business confidence steady, and paid maternity leave. Yet nothing but a barrage of negative press.
Commited to the aged pension rise. What about the unemployed and single mums? Maternity leave. What about the stay at home mums?
But hang on, there’s going to be big deficit- so do you actually want a huge one instead?
Seriously, its lucky that Rudd has got a polling buffer because he’s going to need every bit of it in the face of the feral media
Maybe they (most MSM) are just depressed at the realisation of what the future holds for newspapers when RuddNET is fully operational.
If you want to hear Swan demolish Neil Mitchell listen to this. Go to the heading “Swan: Is John Howard to blame?” and click.
Mitchell of course before the interview was saying how the parental leave is just a diversion and shouldn’t be part of this budget and that Howard isn’t to blame blah, blah, blah.
Swan slaughters these arguments.
Worth a listen.
http://www.3aw.com.au/
I really wouldn’t worry about the “now”. The Libs have plenty of their own problems when it comes to the next election. They’re the ones arguing that they are the “money managers” and they’ll need to put forward answers. What will they cut? What taxes will they increase? Being negative only gets you so far.
Hmm…
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Rudd-needs-a-new-tune-pd20090511-RWT84?OpenDocument&src=sph
After that interview a Liberal supporter or staffer gets on saying how bad Rudd is, big deficits, we need Costello etc. Stange thing though Mitchell didn’t challenge him or try and find out if indeed he was from the Libs. He just agreed. Now if it was Labor …..
434 bob1234 – Tell that to Obama, Brown and many other leaders.
Thanks Bob; sounds like the ghost of Gerard Henderson in there. Total impartiality.
Bob doesn’t realise that one swallow does not a summer make.
Sky Nooz are now slamming Rudd for delaying his ETS. They slammed him when he wanted to bring in an ETS. Sigh.
I think this would be a fair point if the crisis was only a confidence issue. However, it seems clear that this is a structural issue (at least in the USA) and needs to be rectified by not only stimulus by re-regulation. To the author’s credit, he does say that Rudd’s negativity is only ‘part’ of the problem – but politically, he has no choice – if everything is alright, then there is no reason for the stimulus.
Have a read of the article… he contrasts Obama to him.
Arthur Sindinis, Howard’s Chief of Staff amkes a number of pertinent points today. Most interesting is hiw advice to Turnbull re the ETS. Not sure of how much push Sinodinis has these days, but Turnbull may be well advised to heed the following:
“The debate over the emissions trading regime should be short-circuited. The Coalition should let the scheme through and undertake to examine the fall-out if it were to win the next election”.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25457604-7583,00.html
He did very well
I think the HS and Sky News will resurrect an old song and dedicate it anew:
There’s too much inflation, bloody Kev!
Interest rates are too high, bloody Kev,
There’s a skill shortage, bloody Kev,
The unions are out of control, bloody Kev,
They’ve repealed WorkChoices, bloody Kev,
There’s too much unemployment, bloody Kev,
We need more immigration, bloody Kev,
Our border’s undefended, bloody Kev.
We’ll spend too much on defence, bloody Kev,
The debt is way too high, bloody Kev,
They’ve taken away my bonus! bloody Kev.
We’re paying too much in taxes, bloody Kev,
The global temperature’s rising, bloody Kev.
We’re stuck with carbon trading, bloody Kev
The Tigers are still losing, bloody Kev!
I don’t understand his point about people making their own coffee at home with coffee machines as a sign of people spending less. Most of those coffee machines cost hundreds of dollars. You could buy take-away coffee every workday for half a year before paying off a moderately priced coffee machine.
Awesome!
Even Sydney ABC radio is leading with the NAB figures.
Maybe the unemployment improvement wasn’t a glitch after all?
Who’d be an economist nowadays? They seem to get it sooooo wrong, soooooo often.
ShowsOn
Not with the little Breville Cafe Roma – costs about $140 and fills every cup of short or long black with a mean power-pumped bean essence topped with all the flavoursome crema you could want. I think I’m addicted …
Interesting to scan Google’s aggregation of the news and the slant given on stories by their wording of headlines.
http://news.google.com.au/news?pz=1&ned=au&ncl=dXKt_iToQjs2XfMQWeC8ZF1SNEasM&topic=b
Business conditions strengthen in Australia: NAB survey
The Australian
Business conditions ‘improved in April’
The Age
Australia business conditions improve in April-survey
Ninemsn
Australian Business Conditions Improve In April
FN Arena News
Business conditions improve thanks to Government handouts
SmartCompany.com.au
… Now pick the odd one out:
[Business conditions still bad, but stabilising: survey
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2566422.htm?section=justin
Their ABC, who else!!
Sadly Cuppa that’s par for the course these days at Aunty online
Garry Bruce @ 432
Thanks for the link. I couldn’t help but contrast Swan’s performance there with that of his opposite number Hockey’s on Insiders yesterday moening.
Chalk and cheese!
Of course if things look better for Australia you know what the argument against Rudd will be then don’t you.
Bk – You can’t help notice the contrast between Swan’s interview today and his interviews of early last year either. His learning curve has been steep. He comes over as very confident and all over his subject now.
I’m not sure juliem, but given $150,000 is almost three times the median wage I’m not sure it can deservedly be called dealing with middle-class welfare.
So who thinks Costello will do a doorstop interview tomorrow to mark ‘Peter Costello is Irrelevant Day’ like he did last year?
But that highlights how good the government is at politicking.
The means testing will not effect the vast majority of Australians, so they won’t be on the receiving ends of higher costs but the government gets kudos for “slashing/hammering/taking an axe to middle class welfare”.
ROFLOL
Some professional women earning between $100,000 and $150,000 would already receive paid maternity leave from their employers. So they will get two lots of paid maternity leave.
Wasn’t it the infamous doorstop where he told Michelle Grattan to get a new [glasses] prescription?
Yes, they will be giving alternate views, alernate to the truth. However there is no law that
newspapers have to tell the truth, especially when it is couched in ‘opinion’.
I guess the problem with alternate media views at the moment is that the alternate views
are increasingly becoming the only views. And the alternative views seem to be forming one long
pattern over the years…but have to agree if you pick up the DT you get what you deserve, rather
like peering into a pit of cockroaches.
Garry B
Yes, you are right. Swan has improved immensely. He is by means a weak link – even if he were (Iknow it’s unlikely) to be pitted against Costello instead of the lightweights the opposition has fronted with so far.
His big test will be how much proper structural change he brings in this time around plus after the major taxation/social security study which is nearing completion.
Shows
Wonder what this years pithy remark will be?
God Costello’s a dropkick
Today’s Ross Gittin’s article is a must read:
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/tax-cuts-replace-howardinvented-cash-splash-20090510-az6d.html?page=-1
I Didn’t hear Costello on Aw this morning. I could go to the link but I want to hold my food down.
How about this one …
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/gloomy-pm-threatens-confidence-costello/2008/11/26/1227491636548.html
Sydney Morning Herald, 27 November 2008
Funny, I heard the Fiberals moths ago banging on about THE RISK OF A RUDD RECESSION.
Every treasurer has improved after their first run at the track, including the master (Keating). Swan is no different. Do you think he has accumulated all his economic knowledge over the last year? Those who labelled Swan as a weak link, including those here on the Labor side, were wrong! Those who said he was the real deal, like me
were right!
It’s a start. And if the means test is not indexed then in time it will cover more people as inflation pushes salaries higher.
The United States was in recession in November, 2008. Whenever the U.S. goes into recession, so does Australia. How Costello thinks the U.S. can go into recession, but Australia avoid one I have no idea. He should stick to being a lawyer.
Oh, OK Centre, YOU WERE RIGHT! There, does that feel better. By the way I wasn’t one of those detractors you refer to, nor did I question Swan’s economic abilities.
Oz just wants everything to happen immediately no matter what the political consequences, like with the ETS. It’s an argument but I’m sure political suicide is not high on Rudd’s lists of things to do.
As an economics commentator Costello makes a good … um … backbencher.
“There, does that feel better.”
Yes
I like sh!t stirring
421,
He is a crab {Cancer} (Zodiac) or a Fire Monkey (Chinese) pending which school of thought, if at all, you follow.
So while he might act like a rat, pig or snake; not quite the right animal in fact
Another negative article about the cash splash. No, not pokies.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/millions-to-miss-out-on-rudds-stimulus-payment-20090511-azp5.html
443,
Augers very well for QT this week
So do people want everyone to get the cash splash or not? Are people happy with the idea or not? Sheee
Oz must be channeling Queen
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOdWxf1tRmI
Gary @473 that article is a typical beat up, the ones bitching about not getting anything are the ones who allready got a cheuqe in the first stimpac! greedy gutses!
The US economy was in recession from March to November 2001 and Australia was not.
LOL! HERE HE IS! Right on time!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25461556-601,00.html
True. We only had one quarter of negative growth, and one quarter of zero growth.
Oz @ 453,
Without getting too specific, my family has a taxable income in an amount of 45 to 55% of the quoted $150,000. We get both FTB’s (A & B). We have our FTB purposely backloaded (so living on less each week than governmentally entitled to) so our tax refund is a reasonable amount annually. We don’t owe anything major and pay off credit cards monthly. We save a little bit off of every pay period, some more than others. We spend carefully both in the grocery stores and elsewhere, buying generic or house brands where possible. Without the FTB we would have a tough time making ends meet even under those conditions and spending habits. And that includes the fact that being a Defence family and living in a DHA house we (1) don’t have to pay water bills (no Defence family does if you live in a DHA house) and (2) we pay rent but at a subsidized cost; I’ll take a stab in the dark and say it is 70% of market value? Rent and water come out of the gross pay, we don’t see them, they are “off of the top”. If we had to live in the civilian world paying water and rent off of the same amount of takehome pay, we would be toast. Long and short of this example is that $150,000 in the civilian world isn’t as much as you think it is. (We are a family of 4; Mum, Dad and 8 & 11yo kids)
Costello:
Wonderful! This means Costello intends to die 20 years from now!
Perhaps it’s time someone asked Costello why, under his treasurership, the Coalition spent $314 billion in their last term in office.
Greedy f’ing sod
His reply will be “well, we had the money, so we thought we may as well spend it.”
There is a strange paradox in Australia, the more tax people pay, the more money they think they should receive back from the government.
What happened to the notion of saving for a rainy day? The Coalition economic gurus must have known that no boom lasts forever. Or did they? After their record-breaking spendathon they left a mere 20 billion “surplus”, less than the value of one stimulus package. That was all that remained in the government’s hands of the mining boom bonanza: 20 billion.
Why would they care? They knew they were unlikely to be the government at the time the boom ended.
These are not schools of thought. They are schools of absence of thought.
Government’s should spend less during boom times to curb inflation, and more in economic downturn. The Howard government did the opposite, which is why interest rates had to be raised so many times during 2006 and 2007.
Costello is hilarious though! He says the Howard government DID rein in spending, but he thinks they should’ve cut taxes more!
So he thinks the Howard government should’ve reined in spending, not by ending middle class welfare, but by lowering government revenues so the government would have less money to give away as middle class welfare.
Therefore, Costello has just admitted the Howard government had no idea how to cut government spending. But hey, Liberals propose cutting taxes to solve every problem. It also demonstrates Costello’s hypocrisy, as Ross Gittens points out today, tax cuts are really a cash splash by a different name, the difference is really psychological:
So Costello is saying is greatest regret is that he didn’t spend ENOUGH money, he should’ve been handing out more, instead of increasing funding for schools, hospitals, universities, roads, rail, and a national broadband network.
Ahh, good old Baaaarnaby is predicting the end of State Governments.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2566897.htm?section=justin
Howard didn’t care about saving money for a rainy day, his objective was always to win the next election. It wasn’t about the nation, it wasn’t about the economy, it wasn’t about his party, it WAS about breaking Menzies’ record, which he failed to do!
Surely they were TRYING to stay in government. Remember, big spending conservatism has become orthodox centre-right policy, it was George W Bush’s economic agenda.
I’m going to make a prediction that I actually don’t believe I’m making? By Thursday morning the MSM will have gotten so sick over negative reporting about the budget that they will then pressure Turnbull to explain his alternatives!
just checked PM Agenda for the Essential Poll but Spears and Hockey are having a lovefest so switched off. Can someone with a stronger stomach than me let me know when it’s announced?
LOL! This is further confirmation of Adam’s theory that people only subject themselves to media that is supportive of their political leanings.
Essential is usually out by 4:30 so should be soon.
Cuppa
The “Howard economic gurus” worst work was not spending $300 bn and leaving $20bn saved. It was committing in legislation to all the programs that entail ongoing extra spending – all the bonuses, rebates, tax cuts etc, that cost money every year. that coudl only last while the revenue boom lasted. They didn’t just spend money, they committed to future spending on an ongoing basis.
Vera
Very wise giving Agenda and Hockey a miss. The Opposition refuses to acknowledge that the vast majority of deficit in the current and forward estimates is reduction in tax receipts. The so-called “cash splash” hardly figures in the big picture.
fat chance
Agree 110%
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25461801-5005962,00.html
Now let’s hear GP be unpatriotic and talk about how this must be untrue, because we know that rusted Liberals like him would prefer Australia to tank and the Liberals get back in to power, than for Labor and Australia to succeed in getting out of this recession in a much less brutal way.
I was worried it’d end up in some man-love happening ! not that there’s anything wrong with that
Sky News apparently bullied the government so we won’t get that ABC News and Current Affairs channel
They did commit to a lot of one off payments, which people then expected to get every year.
IMO those one off payments were just an admission of policy failures, they were admitting that the pension wasn’t high enough for example.
Thankyou Vera.
If Barnaby is in favour of abolishing the states I will have to support him.
I agree with bob. At this point the coalition has opposed tax increases, then opposed spending increases, opposed higher debt, yet still demanded local action to fix a global problem. The only conclusion you can reach is that they are all salivating at the prospect of a recession, and will even deliberately act to encourage one, in hopes that it gives them an election win. As for the million or so Australians who would be unemployed in such a recession, they are as expendable as the low payed workers who were targetted under WorkChoices.
Of course, this strategy will backfire badly when people see that the Liberals senate obstruction has made things worse, and that the government’s actions so far have worked.
ShowsON
Never mind the one off payments to pensioners – tax cuts, baby bonuses, rebates to farmers, property investors and deductions on super contributions and capital gains for those nearing retirement were all permanent measures, that need to be repealed in legislation.
Link?
Socrates, the opposition went from the thinking that the election was a mistake and that the public would turn on Rudd soon enough, to thinking that once the recession comes government will fall back in their laps. The reality is though that they have made a complete balls up of the issue, and have not had a coherent argument and policy alternative. They have indeed squandered any political benefit they may have gained. They have not been helped by a government that has clearly articulated its policy and the impact of global factors
Will the pension increase and the cuts to high/middle class welfare be in the same bill? So the Libs will then be blocking the pension increase if they vote against it?
thank feck for that!
I see your point, but my broader point is that when governments put one off hand out payments in budget after budget, people EXPECT more and more every year. So in the long run, it just debases proper policy reform.
ABC doesn’t deserve funding for another channel when they only use ABC2 for 10 hours a day, and most of it is repeats of things they show on ABC1.
New Tasmanian poll out.
http://www.emrs.com.au/pdfs/State%20Voting%20Intentions%20May%202009%20Report.pdf
Nothing major, everyone is down and undecided is up.
I’m not 100% but I think there is some kind of flaw within EMRS polling that renders them useless. I think William pointed it out last time they published results but I could be completely wrong.
ShowsOn 511
Agreed; I was concerned about the budget impact but you are right – there is a bad impact on community expectations and the enthusiasm for genuine reform.
From Possum
Today’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 50 (up 3) /33 (down 4) to the ALP, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 the same way – a 4 point jump to Labor from last week’s result. This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1984, for an MoE of around the 2.2% mark.
So no Essential poll yet?
How’s that for timing
Normality restored!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/05/essential-report_110509.pdf
Second honeymoon?
Pretty interesting questions on ETS and Afghanistan.
I think it’s safe to say that while the Liberals are led by the likes of Howard, Nelson, Turnbull, and Costello, the polling won’t change all that much.
And here i was worrying about the narrowing, thanks for the details ruawake and Oz
I’m surprised about the changes to the CPRS receiving so much support. I guess the potential for higher targets is what interests most people, more so than the 1 year delay in the introduction.
I think what’s pretty interesting is that even though twice as many people think the budget will be bad for them as those who think it will good, this still translates into 4 point swing for a 61/39 2PP.
So even though people think the budget will be tough they are willing to accept and/or they think the Libs would have an even worse budget.
The argument goes, the polls are high for Rudd because he is “acting like Father Christmas” with the stimpacs but on the other hand apparently the polls show people don’t like the handouts and are sceptical. Please explain.
I don’t think Afghanistan is going to be much of an issue. The moment the Libs oppose our efforts there they would be opening themselves up to such a ‘cut and run’ beating. Of that you can be sure.
Polls have been like this since December 2006. They’re idiots.
I think most people think the budget will be bad for them simply because budgets during recessions normally are much tougher than those made when the economy is going strong. I think people’s response to that question is a reflection on the state of the economy more than anything else.
I find it funny that the same amount of Labor and Liberal supporters support the changes, presumably for different reasons.
The problem with the questions on ETS is that there’s only one negative answer and it’s hard to tell if people disagree with the scheme because they think it’s too strong or too weak.
In this case the same could be said for the positive response. Most likely that Labor supports like the higher target whereas the Liberal supporters like the delay.
bob, succinctly put.
The voters like, respect and trust Rudd, and think he is trying to do the right thing in difficult circumstances not of his making. They are willing to cut him a lot of slack on specific policy issues, particularly very complex ones that few people really undertstand. That’s all you need to know for now.
The problem for the Libs is that they agree with the government on Afghanistan, one of the few bloody things they do agree with them on. How ironic.
There was oppose and strongly oppose. The question was actually do you support the changes, not the CPRS itself. A little disingenuous really.
GB
The polls are high for Rudd because people like a recession and the chance of losing their job. After all, this recession is Rudd’s fault, Turnbull said so.
Can only stay for a minute but gee I’m laughing about that Essential Poll.
Listened to Hockey on Agenda this pm and his usual diatribe was spouted. All vitriol and bad humour.
And then Essential bought out the Poll figures. Gawd – that will keep my mob going for days.
Swannie is looking a bit relaxed today so I’ve got my chair ready for tomorrow night.
Good one, Juliem – North M did well.
Yes. This doesn’t solve the problem of whether they “oppose or strongly oppose” the moves to strengthen it, or too weaken it. And whilst this is specific to the changes, the same issue comes up with the previous polls on the ETS where the option is to oppose it but we don’t know how many oppose it because they think it goes too far or not far enough.
Ah, I get you. Yes, it is hard to know exactly where everyone stands. It’s a lot like the republican issue really… most are in favour of a republic but can’t agree on a model.
You make a good point Oz re the polling.
I think with an issue as complex as the ETS it’s difficult to resolve that kind of problem since there’s so many variables. The more complicated you make the polling (eg. by adding responses like “do you support it because of a,b,c or d OR do you oppose it because of a, b, c or d) the less reliable your results are going to be.
Identifying community responses to the ETS is probably worth a PHD.
Vera,
No true. I’ve realised I will miss out too. The reason is because I made the transition from welfare to work in the second half of the last financial year. So I got all my tax back. So nothing from the first round, and nothing in the second either. So while there are some people grizzling about not getting two bites of the cherry, some of us are really going to miss out. I am really bitching, and have already shot off an email to Kev! I needed that money for urgent dental work.
Surprise surprise, the Nationals will not support any ETS.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25462310-12377,00.html
polyquats, thats the kicker. The Govt has always said you had to pay tax last financial year to get the $900. Even if it was just $1.
You did not pay tax – hence no $900. Many people misunderstood this but it was spelled out pretty clearly.
Heh, I didn’t work last financial year but I did start JUST after the June 30 cut off.
Was pretty devastated, but got over it soon enough.
Which completely kills of the Coalition’s credibility on climate change, because the Liberals wouldn’t be able to get any policy through the senate without at least the support of the Greens.
DD time then
Ruawake,
Well advice varied between ‘lodged tax return’ and ‘paid tax’; it has been very confusing.
But I was really replying to Vera’s point, that everyone got one or the other of the stimpacs, and those complaining were hoping to double dip. This isn’t true. Some of us really missed out, simply because of the way the hand out was done. If I’d started work a month earlier, I might have got this stimpac, if I’d stayed on welfare I’d have got the other. I missed both because of the timing of starting work. I think I have the right to feel a bit p1ssed off!
The Liberals need to form Govt. first. A major problem.
I’m sure if the Coalition were to win government backdown Barnaby would find some way to support an ETS.
For instance, by demanding cash for the country.
Coalition split time?
I wonder if Truss agrees with “Hammer” Barnaby? Is he still technically leader of the Nats?
Thanks Stock and Land.
http://sl.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/agribusiness-and-general/political/nats-fight-libs-antirural-seat-redistribution/1508155.aspx?storypage=0
The Nats still seem to think they are relevant.
Barnaby says he will support the budget until Rudd goes insane.
[Senator Joyce says the vast majority of the Government's Budget will be passed, but the Nationals will draw the line at excessive debt.
"If they come back with a ridiculous extension [of] where the debt is, then I believe the Australian people will scream at us and they’ll just say stop, stop it, lock up the cheque book, get away from it, you are insane,” he said.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2566897.htm?section=justin
He’s certainly the expert on insanity…
The problem for Turnbull is that if the Nats split from the coalition a number of Libs might go along just for the ride.
Did anyone else see the add on the channel 7 news starring Barnaby and Mr X.
I thought I had seen everything, but was horribly mistaken. lol
Rua we were able to govern well from 1996-2004 without a Senate majority. The ALP were often there to support our legislation.
We didnt often deal with the Greens.
If the Nationals will not support any ETS, where will that leave Turnbull?
Hanging by the ceiling in his undies in the Green Room of Parliament House LOL.
What the? Bloody Liberals. Why get rid of two original federation divisions? Tools.
No you were not.
Thank the Democrats Glen.
But it’s still an unknown how well a sole Green balance of power Senate would function. I’m sure things would be almost if not just as difficult if the current BOP was Democrats-Fielding-Xenophon.
bahahahahahahahahahahahahaha *breath* hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Scorpio,
“Did anyone else see the add on the channel 7 news starring Barnaby and Mr X.”
Which was the organ grinder and which was the monkey?
Sounds sensible. Any chance of the Libs being sensible any time soon?
Glen
You are correct, most Govts. get the majority of their legislation passed with opposition party support.
If the unthinkable happens and the Libs win an election in the next decade, who cares what the National’s policy is?
And who was throwing the peanuts?
Scorpio
Who’s paying for that stupid ad? I hope it’s not the taxpayer. Of all the things for Mr X to make an ad about, I can’t think of a dumber one.
C’mon william, i want my 61/39 header!!!
Essential Research is not credible.
Poppycock
X and the Senator for Regional Qld are mates.
Maybe Felix and Oscar should be their new names.
But the swings are.
Diogenes @ 566,
That’s an interesting question you pose there. The add was very professionally done and in “prime time” so wouldn’t have been cheap. (certainly not peanuts)
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25463003-26103,00.html
How many original Federation electorates are left?
Is it down to single digits yet?
Oscar and Lucinda. To get married on a boat moored in Lake Ayre.
The X and B ads were, funded by Optical Superstore founder Ian Melrose.
Glen @ 568
Please explain.
The first budget leak to a TV station!
$58 billions is pretty much what people were expecting. Most of the speculation was on $50-60 billion.
As Glen says in one of his comments Essential research is very much necessary but it should be more kind of credible.
Thomas
real estate
PolyQuats, I didn’t say everyone would get a bonus payment, I was refering to the people making comments in Gary’s article link who were complaining about not getting something in both Stimpacs.
eg [Self-funded retiree Stuart Robley received a bonus about Christmas time but was disappointed he would not receive anything in the current package.]
My sister also says she misses out as she is a self funded retiree, she put in a tax form for the medicare levy but didn’t actually pay tax.
Who do we think will be on the 7:30 Report?
Hockey probably, considering that Swan will be interviewed tomorrow night.
Winston @577
He means he doesn’t like the figures.
Please, please. I hope the avuncular one is on 7.30 tonight. I love his blaming the media for Rudd’s popularity line.
The government is re-introducing the alcopops legislation tomorrow morning.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/govt-tries-again-on-alcopops-laws-20090511-b0gl.html
Judging by the article it appears there will be two separate pieces of legislation – one will be the same as last time for a 70% increase on RTD’s and the other will be to validate the previous months tax.
Bit weird they’re introducing it now – surely the next few days and weeks are going to be completely dominated by other budget measures. Unless, of course, they expect it to be delayed for another month or so and to get to the 3 months they need for a DD.
Hockey has become unwatchable (maybe he always was). He has totally lost that Sunrise nice guy persona and is now presenting as bitter twisted and nasty. Bring him on as opposition leader!! Cmon Newspoll, give us a question on it!!
Oz,
I believe they will have to pay the tax collected back if the legislation to hold onto it is not passed this week.
I presume splitting the legislation enables the Government to play the same game again this year.
Ah ok, makes sense.
Why would he do that? What’s his agenda?
Diogs,
Myopia for all.
He’s got bucks, his prerogative to spend them on whatever he likes? X and B seem to agree that foreign ownership is bad. Tossers.
It appears he has a history of funding ads for things that he has an interest in.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2005/s1290338.htm
http://sydney.indymedia.org.au/story/ian-melrose-fantastic-advert-regional-human-rights-abuses
Wentworth, Parramatta, North Sydney, Robertson, Werriwa, Macquarie, Newcastle, Hunter, Cowper, Richmond, New England, Hume, Eden-Monaro
Melbourne, Melbourne Ports, Kooyong, Flinders, Gippsland, Indi, Ballarat, Bendigo, Corio, Corangamite, Wannon
Brisbane, Moreton, Wide Bay, Capricornia, Herbert, Kennedy, Maranoa
Perth, Fremantle, Swan, Kalgoorlie
(1903) Adelaide, Hindmarsh, Barker, Wakefield, Grey
(1903) Denison, Franklin, Bass
I’m guessing next week we’ll get a couple polls – even Nielson per chance? Does Galaxy only come out to play in election periods?
Wilson Tuckey trying to hang onto his job.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25457602-7583,00.html
New thread.