No Morgan poll this week – in a half-baked attempt to tie the headline to the post, here’s a link to an analysis by Possum posing the question, “is there a polling budget effect?” (short answer: no). With that out of the way:
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports on the demise of a Queensland Coalition deal in which Barnaby Joyce was to move to the lower house and Liberal Senator Russell Trood was to maintain the existing balance in the Senate by joining the Nationals. The Liberals’ end of the deal was reportedly vetoed by federal Liberal president Alan Stockdale, prompting Joyce to angrily declare he would not be moving from the Senate. Trood’s factional ally, former state Liberal president Bob Carroll, says he would stake his life on Trood never agreeing to sit in the Nationals rather than the Liberal party room. This would seem to be a pretty big call, given that Trood’s alternative is to stay in the surely unwinnable fourth position on the Liberal National ticket.
• Fans of factional argybargy can unearth a motherlode of detail on Labor’s western Melbourne fiefdoms from the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. Among the matters examined is the highly fraught preselection for last year’s Kororoit by-election, with the Ombudsman recommending an investigation into a possible breach of the Local Government Act by failed aspirant and former mayor Natalie Suleyman. It is alleged that a funding decision for a sports ground redevelopment was influenced by a desire to win the support of Keilor MP and Right powerbroker George Seitz, and that efforts were made to withdraw the funding when Seitz failed to come through.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC notes that preselection nominations for federal Liberal seats in WA close in less than three weeks, so those gunning for the removal of Pearce MP Judi Moylan and O’Connor MP Wilson Tuckey don’t have long to get their act together. Matt Brown tells Kennedy he hasn’t made up his mind whether to launch a second challenge against Dennis Jensen in Tangney, although jockeying in local branches suggests otherwise.
• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports that Bronwyn Bishop’s hold on the larger branches in her electorate of Mackellar has “slipped”. One of the potential challengers, believe it or not, is former state Opposition Leader John Brogden. Another is a blast from an even more distant past – Jim Longley, who preceded Brogden as member for the local state seat of Pittwater.
• Western Australia’s minority Liberal-National government lost a vote in the Legislative Assembly on Wednesday, which I believe to be the first defeat for a government there in 17 years. At issue was a highly contentious bill to replace preferential voting at local government elections with first-past-the-post. However, the defeat resulted from the absence of four ministers from the chamber, and the bill was passed on a second attempt later in the day. The subject of the bill itself is obviously worth discussion, which I will attend to eventually. For whatever reason, the seemingly retrograde measure has the support of the Western Australian Local Government Association.
• A report by the Youth Electoral Study for the Australian Electoral Commission finds 20 per cent of youths aged 18 to 25 are not enrolled to vote, and “close to half” wouldn’t vote if it wasn’t compulsory. Those who went to private schools or were subjected to civics classes were somewhat more enthusiastic.
• You might recall some chat last month about a looming referendum on the introduction of a Hare-Clark style electoral system in the Canadian province of British Columbia. Well, that’s happening on Tuesday.
• Possum’s favourite word, “spiffy”, doesn’t do justice to his infographic electoral demographic displays.
• If it’s analysis of major party submissions for the federal redistribution in New South Wales you’re after, Ben Raue of The Tally Room is unequivocally your man.
596 Comments
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I am imagining the appearance of a lump in your cheek Wiiliam, indicating something firmly planted there.
And The Baby Bonus will only be retained for Stay at Home Mums, and Paid Maternity Leave only for incomes up to $150,000 as well.
Your grasp of Communications Theory 101 sounds as good as my own, Diogenes. The theory goes that the news media do not directly shape people’s opinions for precisely the reason Psephos states, i.e. people screen out messages which are inconsistent with their prejudices (”selective perception”, as the jargon would have it). These prejudices are largely socially determined and are little influenced by the media. The rise of what Psephos calls the “boutique media” in the internet age seems to bear this point out very nicely. However, the media does influence the salience which people attach (or don’t attach, as the case may be) to various issues depending on the emphasis they place on them, hence “agenda setting”. These days it’s fashionable to argue that this can be very powerful in its way, as the public can be “primed” to attach salience to issues which are perceived as strengths for one side or the other.
What a thing to say, Winston.
William,
this equates to the mute button on my remote
…….
William
Thanks for that. So if we consider politics as a war, the print media helps decide what battles will be fought on which battlegrounds but doesn’t influence the outcome of the battle. Very interesting.
344,
Excepting Port, we were the next most recent victory AT Geelong but you have to go back a few years ….. While I am always on the hunt for the holy grail of “perfect tipping” (have never yet found it), I reckon that if I tip them and they lose and I don’t tip them and they win; I would be much happier going 7/1 and have my team take 4 points
.
I agree, which is why even if, as many here assert the ABC is biased, (which it isn’t) it wouldn’t really matter that much.
Most Australians vote the way their parents vote. Most swing voters had one Labor voting parent and one Liberal voting parent.
Oh, and I don’t see how “Parental Leave Gets Thumbs Up” is an example of anti-government bias:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/10/2565830.htm
For example, theorists got very excited about the fact that George Bush Sr’s popularity sank like a stone after the Gulf War when the media agenda shifted away from foreign policy and on to the economy. Bush’s rating as “best to handle foreign policy” remained very high, but it ceased to do him any good.
Maybe because it supports the ABC’s bias towards Feminist issues
And the media seem to have a particular hunger of for inciting and promoting leadership battles withing the major parties. I’ve always found it strange that when one of those feeding frenzies is on they will almost ignore policy debate, or try and convince people to see EVERYTHING that happens in relation to policy in the context of leadership (which is what the journo’s seem to really want to focus on).
But what came first? The media shifting on to other topics, or the war simply coming to an end, which meant they had to report other things?
I thought parental leave means both parents can get it?
Closer to home a more recent example is the WorkChoices issue in the 2007 election. Despite the tens of millions spent on advertising, opinion about Workchoices didn’t actually change much. What changed was the importance of IR as an election issue.
William is your 353 about the print media or the media in general?
If the latter, and we accept Diogenes’ “war” analogy, then where do people actually get their information upon which they formulate their own positions?
#362: The war coming to an end of course, but perhaps that need not have happened. Maybe he could have ordered the troops on to Baghdad and rode the hosannahs all the way to polling day.
So when one side has *no* perceived strengths, the media is completely impotent?
Most people form their opinions based on the views of others we know personally, especially people we admire or consider well-informed. Community leaders, such as priests etc, are also very influential.
Surely parents are by far the most important influence of this sort.
Quite so, Diogenes, which is the sort of thing I had in mind when I referred to viewpoints being “socially determined”.
Oz: the original studies showing people weren’t much influenced by the media were conducted during and after WW2 and were mostly concerned with the print media, and nuances about “agenda setting” and “priming” emerged largely in response to the television age.
Musrum, I take that as a dig at the Coalition – however, the asylum seeker issue still seems to be one that is viewed as a Coalition strength. Certainly Kevin Rudd seems concerned that this might be so, judging by the pitch of his rhetoric following the maritime incident a few weeks ago.
Yes indeed, priests touch many of us in ways that others do not.
Musrum
If you follow that theory William talks about, it follows that the media would want to stage the battles on favourable Liberal ground. There were only two issues the Libs were ahead in at the last election; economic manager and national security.
The Libs have lost both of these now. The media don’t have a single issue that the Libs are ahead in.
And what have been the two issues the MSM has piled onto the Liberals on and kicked the crap out of them? Julie Bishop for helping lose economic manager, and Turnbull for moving to the left of Rudd on Defence.
Oh yeah, I forgot about asylum seekers. The Libs are ahead on that.
I think something along the lines of who controls the emdium controls the mindset
In howards case he thought the print/radio medium was his and he was controlling the mindset
the web was the new medium that labor owned and consequently controlled the mindest
the parallel is menzies V chifley
where menzies grabbed the new medium of radio
whilst chifley was still for tub thumping as the medium
In what way does Labor control the internet?
I’ve not heard this before. Radio (or wireless as it was called in Australia) was not a new medium during the Menzies-Chifley period. You may be confusing this with the often-recounted story of Menzies’s skillful use of TV during the 1963 campaign against Calwell. Menzies was the first PM to deliver his policy speech in a TV studio rather than at a public meeting, and it was a great success. Calwell was an old-fashioned orator who didn’t like or understand TV, whereas Menzies took to it immediately. This is decribed in Don Whitington’s insightful book “The Rulers: Fifteen Years of the Liberals” (1964), which I recommend.
not the internet brains, the web thingy melange of information
and in an informal biased way.
that is in no way proprietorail, much like menzies and later howard (and by extension the coalition) ruled the airwaves yet didnt actually “own” radio
ShowsOn @ 369,
Yes, parents do control this information flow to a large extent but it isn’t the only factor in determining ones vote as an adult. A spouse can also have a large influence. This happened in my family. I’ve got a sister 2 years younger than I who was influenced to the dark side by the man she married and his family. However, this seems to not always work as Maria Shriver hasn’t let it faze her one bit
Because the conservative side doesn’t! QED…
*exit*
david day mentions in his essay :
‘chifleys biggest defect..the low priority he gave to the presentational PR side-had contributed substantially to the outcome’
“‘by july 1943 menzies had made 80 such weekly broadcasts,modelled on roosevelts btw’
which put him in good stead for when he would nneed to present himself again”
allan martin
and further I believe the Mobilephone will be the new medium.
but dont tell the libs
watching the whitehouse correspondence dinner speeches.
Australia needs something like this. Seriously.
then again Glen Milne after a few frothies…
maybe not
Neither our politicians nor our journalists are witty enough to make such a thing work.
Golly
I go off for a fortnight to look at what real bark beetles do to real conifers and come back to find what?
Howard came up with 0% of nothing.
Rudd is up to maybe 25% of nothing, which we are now being asked to believe is much better than 5% of not now, or 15% of nothing.
Problem too hard for Howard? Solution too hard for Rudd?
Spot the difference between nothing and nothing? The HowRudd covergence thrives. The basic operating principle is the same:
‘Do nothing to upset King Coal who is mainly responsible for sending all the CO2 into the atmosphere.’
Perhaps entirely co-incidentally, perhaps not, the other thing that is converging on 0% of nothing much is the amount of useable water in the Murray Darling Basin storages. Down to 9%. The good April rains mostly disappeared into the dust so there was not a lot of run-off. If Australian climate change policy is down to keeping our fingers crossed, then it should be good enough for the the Murray Darling Basin, so maybe if all we Bludgers keep our fingers crossed something good will happen.
Old King Coal was a merry old soul
A merry old soul was he
He called for his pipe
He called for his bowl
He called for his fiddlers three.
BTW, the bark beetles do kill conifers stone dead. It is impressived stuff to see whole stands of dead trees, and it sort of reminded me that while the big things hog all the climate change coverage, it may just be the little things that are going to really suprise us.
Swan’s got two problems to try to overcome on Tuesday night, Howard’s top of the boom spending and simultaneously reduced revenues from the GFC. His third problem they forgot to mention is a rabid, uncooperative senate.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/howard-to-blame-for-horror-budget-swan-20090511-azel.html
Priests aren’t influential, only their organisation is influential thru changing govt policy not changing people’s opinions. In times when church attendance is at 4% and falling their words will not influence many, their big successes are in govt policy like the restrictions on RU486 and family planning. They have lost credibility, like past organisations such as the democrats and DLP.
Glenn Milne’s been eating his Weeties again in the OO.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25457605-33435,00.html
Now our so far miniscule unemployment (which actually fell last month) is all the fault of Rudd, Swan, Gillard, Glen Stevens some other minister whose name I’ve forgotten plus, of course… Therese Rein!
Milne’s Message For The Day: They shoulda seen it coming.
For 16 months (conveniently all of them since Howard was despatched to the sidelines) some indicator or other called “the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations leading indicator of employment” buried deep within Gillard’s departmental paperwork has been ignored. This indicator, if it has 6 successive falls, apparently means there’s a downwards turn on the way in employment. So, subtract 6 months from 16 and you get that for the last 10 months, since July 2008, for God’s sake, Rudd should have known there was a recession coming and that the “the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations leading indicator of employment” was the one and only indicator that he had to take notice of… but didn’t.
This is where Therese Rein comes in. You’d have thought she would have noticed something amiss among all the record low unemployment figures that really meant the opposite. One night in the Lodge double bedroom why wasn’t there a little pillow talk on the subject:
“Honey, that was great, but the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations leading indicator of employment has been falling for six months already. I think we’re in for a recession.”
So the frumpy First Lady is just as much to blame for the mess we’re in as her nerdy husband.
For make no mistake: Milne’s argument is that if Rudd & Co. had realised what their own figures were telling them we’d have no unemployment now and very little in the future. In fact, since “the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations leading indicator of employment” is so infallible, if the World had just browsed through the department’s dry papers a little earlier maybe the entire Global Financial Crisis could have been avoided.
“I’m {insert name of G8 World leader here}. Everything is going swimmingly. We’re richer than ever today in July 2008. The only dark cloud on the horizon is the Australian Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations’ leading indicator of employment. It’s trending down and has been for 6 months…”
In a way it’s reassuring that the conservatives’ arguments are reduced to squabbling about the margins: that Australian unemployment – already one of the lowest in the world in the midst of a crisis – might have been just a tad lower if Rudd (and his wife and that other cow, Gillard and that incompetent Stevens) had read what was right in front of them, and what had been right in front of them since just after Howard was chucked out of office. Bad numbers, entirely within Rudd’s term, Therese Rein, Julia Gillard, the Reserve Bank et al. They’re all in it as Glen mounts another massive hit against the government, just like all the others from his brilliant past career have Rudd, at last, on his knees.
I guess the question to be asked is whether or not Mr Milne would have thought it prudent to have announced $50 billion in stimulus in July last year?
Why do they have to bring Rudd’s wife into this, again?
Milne really is a nasty piece of work!
centre
The studies on opinions that I was referring to were mainly from the US, where priests (individually and collectively) have a lot more influence than in Oz.
Budget saving move here in WA …..
A good piece on budget prospects at the ABC with Access Economics stating a view that is balanced (i.e. not flattering to either side). He feels tax rises are inevitable:http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2565983.htm
I like these quotes:
“The developments of recent years were absolutely sweet for the Budget. Now as the boom turns into bust we are increasingly seeing just how much we spent during the good years.”
“Both sides of politics went to the last federal election promising unsustainable and unaffordable policies off the back of boom-time revenues. Now the boom is gone. As Warren Buffet has said, you never know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.
“Well the tide has well and truly gone out on Australia’s Budget and we have a big deficit even after the crisis is over.
Rudd and Swan should lay the groundwork now for future tax rises, not just introduction of means tests and repeal of middle class welfare.
I’m still yet to see the repeal of “middle class welfare”.
Sorry, but means testing rebates and the like at $150,000 is not rolling back middle-class welfare.
Unfortunately I think even if the Government had the courage to try and tackle ‘middle class welfare’ head on they’d have little to no chance of getting the changes through the current Senate.
395,
Oz, what limit of dollars would you set if not $150,000?
Lovely day!
The one thing the media had to grudgingly admit was a plus from the Budget has been taken away before it was ever given (if you get what I mean):
http://www.theage.com.au/national/maternity-scheme-may-weigh-in-200-million-lighter-20090510-az9q.html
Maternity scheme may weigh in $200 million lighter
It’s apparently been cut back before it’s even been put on the table.
Why didn’t Therese Rein say something? I mean they want her to be monitor of “the Australian Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations’ leading indicator of employment” to hubby, Kevin, even though she’s been hounded out of the Australian employment market by the very same people calling on her to know everything about it. Well, she’s a mother too, isn’t she? She should have known…. something… at least about families and whispered in the PM’s ear. Gillard’s no use: she’s barren. But Therese.
Wait till Pies gets a hand on this one.
This is all fantastic and will leave a lasting legacy on all- the maternity leave package- and they are retaining the baby bonus, unbelievable. i thought they would scrap that. how generous!!! The UK has 26 weeks but only 100 pounds a week (that was in 2004 not sure if it’s gone up). The australian system is way more generous
The NAB has a new style banking just for poll bludgers.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25458591-462,00.html
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