No Morgan poll this week – in a half-baked attempt to tie the headline to the post, here’s a link to an analysis by Possum posing the question, “is there a polling budget effect?” (short answer: no). With that out of the way:
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports on the demise of a Queensland Coalition deal in which Barnaby Joyce was to move to the lower house and Liberal Senator Russell Trood was to maintain the existing balance in the Senate by joining the Nationals. The Liberals’ end of the deal was reportedly vetoed by federal Liberal president Alan Stockdale, prompting Joyce to angrily declare he would not be moving from the Senate. Trood’s factional ally, former state Liberal president Bob Carroll, says he would stake his life on Trood never agreeing to sit in the Nationals rather than the Liberal party room. This would seem to be a pretty big call, given that Trood’s alternative is to stay in the surely unwinnable fourth position on the Liberal National ticket.
• Fans of factional argybargy can unearth a motherlode of detail on Labor’s western Melbourne fiefdoms from the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. Among the matters examined is the highly fraught preselection for last year’s Kororoit by-election, with the Ombudsman recommending an investigation into a possible breach of the Local Government Act by failed aspirant and former mayor Natalie Suleyman. It is alleged that a funding decision for a sports ground redevelopment was influenced by a desire to win the support of Keilor MP and Right powerbroker George Seitz, and that efforts were made to withdraw the funding when Seitz failed to come through.
• Peter Kennedy of the ABC notes that preselection nominations for federal Liberal seats in WA close in less than three weeks, so those gunning for the removal of Pearce MP Judi Moylan and O’Connor MP Wilson Tuckey don’t have long to get their act together. Matt Brown tells Kennedy he hasn’t made up his mind whether to launch a second challenge against Dennis Jensen in Tangney, although jockeying in local branches suggests otherwise.
• Bernard Keane of Crikey reports that Bronwyn Bishop’s hold on the larger branches in her electorate of Mackellar has “slipped”. One of the potential challengers, believe it or not, is former state Opposition Leader John Brogden. Another is a blast from an even more distant past – Jim Longley, who preceded Brogden as member for the local state seat of Pittwater.
• Western Australia’s minority Liberal-National government lost a vote in the Legislative Assembly on Wednesday, which I believe to be the first defeat for a government there in 17 years. At issue was a highly contentious bill to replace preferential voting at local government elections with first-past-the-post. However, the defeat resulted from the absence of four ministers from the chamber, and the bill was passed on a second attempt later in the day. The subject of the bill itself is obviously worth discussion, which I will attend to eventually. For whatever reason, the seemingly retrograde measure has the support of the Western Australian Local Government Association.
• A report by the Youth Electoral Study for the Australian Electoral Commission finds 20 per cent of youths aged 18 to 25 are not enrolled to vote, and “close to half” wouldn’t vote if it wasn’t compulsory. Those who went to private schools or were subjected to civics classes were somewhat more enthusiastic.
• You might recall some chat last month about a looming referendum on the introduction of a Hare-Clark style electoral system in the Canadian province of British Columbia. Well, that’s happening on Tuesday.
• Possum’s favourite word, “spiffy”, doesn’t do justice to his infographic electoral demographic displays.
• If it’s analysis of major party submissions for the federal redistribution in New South Wales you’re after, Ben Raue of The Tally Room is unequivocally your man.
596 Comments
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Yes Bill I love the headline in the Age- maternity leave slashed. Get off the drugs guys, and your head out of the coalition’s arses. They’ve got their heads stuck right up there and all they can smell is shite.
Oz
I wasn’t suggesting that all the middle class welfare (pork for Howard’s whingers) was gone. I was pleased about what had already been announced as going as a step in the right direction.
BB
I wouldn’t fret. At least teh debate has moved to the point where people are accepting the need for some harder measures and people like Access Economics are questioning if we are being hard enough. If the coalition opposes tax measures like alcopops again this time Rudd should call the DD. Turnbull has dug his own grave.
Steve
The NAB really must be run by geniuses. Naming a bank the “nab” is a bit like naming a new 4WD model “the guzzler” or an elective surgery procedure the “walletectomy”.
Have just been reading the readers’ comments on the “Swan Blames Howard” story in the Tele.
Wow! I didn’t know there could be so much hatred out there. It seems that very few accept that tax receipts have fallen dramatically in this financial year, and that they blame the entire coming deficit on Rudd. All of it.
This is actually a dangerous line and I’ve heard it repeated recently, even by some who voted Labor at the last election. There seems to be a superstitious belief out there (out here?) that whenever Labor gets into power it’s automatic that the nation will go into deficit pretty soon afterwards. It’s not based particularly on reason, but it’s a real belief. Hard for Labor to shake off, I’d say, if even some of their supporters are thinking it, and expressing it.
Serves you right for reading the DT. What did you expect to find at the DT readers’ comments section? Why don’t you just go and read the Liberal Party website and cut out the middleman? See last night’s discussion on the cycle of mutual reinforcement between the right-wing tabloids and their readers.
I don’t read the comments section on any story. It’s just filled with rubbish and talking points written up by bored staffers usually.
BB
It might be timely to remind peopel that, right up to the last election campaign, it was Howard who was promising to tax less and spend more, contrary to the specific warnings of Glen Stevens and a few other honest public service economists. That is why we had inflation.
Whereas it was Rudd who called an end to the silly game of outspending each other.
BB that’s an old one, “I voted Labor last time but won’t be next time” etc These people have never voted Labor in their lives I’d bet. You hear the same thing on late night ABC talk back radio where the supposed ex Labor voter goes on to sing directly from the Lib songsheet. They are so transparent
Just lurking.
Nothing seems to change. The MSM continues its efforts to complete the idiotisation of the nation. After the last fed election I finally gave up on the lot of them – including the ABC. Made the mistake of tuning in to ABC2 this morning and turned it off as soon as that poltroon they have in Canberra began his smirk-ridden commentary.
Thank goodness for you lot. Keep it up guys!
BB
There is ample evidence of the falseness of the claim that the deficit is Rudd/Swan’s fault. You can even go back ot the 2004 election campaign and find the submissions by the Business Council of Australia calling for more spending on infrastructure and training to eliminate a skills shortage even then (still ignored by Howard). The trouble is most people forget quickly (like the 1982 debt under Howard as treasurer) and many don’t even bother to read this stuff at the time, so its easy to get myths out there, unless they jarr against people’s reality at the time. Hence the coalition saying that we had never had it so good while interest rates were climbing was an unwise lie (too easily countered by reaility). But saying who is to blame for the debt – who knows?
There is no point spending too much time arguing who is to blame thouhg. Better to have a solution, adn point out that Turnbull and some coalition senate hypocrites blocked revenue measures in the budget (alcopops) just one year ago.
The DT readers have been feral for some time. The shock would be if anyone supported the government on their blogs. Not worth the paper they’re writing in.
I’m fast becoming a Heather Rideout fan. She was on 10 news talking very favorably about the paternity leave scheme and when the newsreader mentioned that the Libs were now going to have one of their own she said it was a bit late and why didn’t they do it when they were in govt. She said with a smile that they had missed the boat on this one
Mumble feels malcolmtent has finally jumped the shark
I tend to agree, bye bye malcolm hello ???
Until the magic leadership rounabout stops spinning the libs have no chance.
oops
I meant to include the header
She’s very much a pragmatist
Former NSW Labor Treasurer Michael Costa on Sky Nooz slamming Rudd and Swan, the budget, and their economic credibility, and says he’s never had confidence in them…
And now he’s ripping in to the stimulii as disasters and using Liberal Party lines, it didn’t save a single job etc etc (did he miss the latest jobs figure?).
Why did he ever join Labor?
Tell me, what did Costa do for NSW again?
Could we be getting over the worst of things?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/business-conditions-improved-in-april-20090511-azvw.html
Costa is a goose
No, a rat.
Wishful thinking from the “rat” one term govt lol
Ask not, what Costa did for Labor (or NSW). Ask rather, what did Labor do for Costa? At least, I suspect that is the way he always saw it.
How about a goose-rat?
He’s a tool for the likes of Sky to have 2 “Libs” instead of one for each side
For arguments sake, if unemployment rises by 0.5%, who could possibly say if it didn’t rise by 1.0% if there wasn’t a stimulus package? We can’t tell the gross swings, only the net swing. And people like Costa and GP ignore this.
Vera
I think there are a few good reasons to believe the recession will not get any worse and will not become a depression. Govt action here and (more importantly) in the USA has stabilised credit markets and credit is flowing for markets. However, there is usually a lag of up to a year for that to flow onto business activity on the ground. Also, we won’t go straight back to business as it was before because a lot of people lost their capital and it will take time to rebuild. Plus, we now realise some of the things done before were pretty stupid risks and shouldn’t be done again.
So overall, I think things won’t get much worse, but will only get better slowly.
Socrates so long as unemployment only rises by a slight margin each month before it starts getting better I’ll be satisfied. (as will the govt I’d think)
Gary,
I quite enjoy Malcolm Farr’s contributions to the Daily Terror. Some of his posters are highly intelligent and make cutting points.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/real_economic_driver_mr_and_mrs_average/
If the last week proves anything, its that the Rudd government cant win with the MSM. Retail sales stronger than expected, unemployment down, business confidence steady, and paid maternity leave. Yet nothing but a barrage of negative press.
Commited to the aged pension rise. What about the unemployed and single mums? Maternity leave. What about the stay at home mums?
But hang on, there’s going to be big deficit- so do you actually want a huge one instead?
Seriously, its lucky that Rudd has got a polling buffer because he’s going to need every bit of it in the face of the feral media
Maybe they (most MSM) are just depressed at the realisation of what the future holds for newspapers when RuddNET is fully operational.
If you want to hear Swan demolish Neil Mitchell listen to this. Go to the heading “Swan: Is John Howard to blame?” and click.
Mitchell of course before the interview was saying how the parental leave is just a diversion and shouldn’t be part of this budget and that Howard isn’t to blame blah, blah, blah.
Swan slaughters these arguments.
Worth a listen.
http://www.3aw.com.au/
I really wouldn’t worry about the “now”. The Libs have plenty of their own problems when it comes to the next election. They’re the ones arguing that they are the “money managers” and they’ll need to put forward answers. What will they cut? What taxes will they increase? Being negative only gets you so far.
Hmm…
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Rudd-needs-a-new-tune-pd20090511-RWT84?OpenDocument&src=sph
After that interview a Liberal supporter or staffer gets on saying how bad Rudd is, big deficits, we need Costello etc. Stange thing though Mitchell didn’t challenge him or try and find out if indeed he was from the Libs. He just agreed. Now if it was Labor …..
434 bob1234 – Tell that to Obama, Brown and many other leaders.
Thanks Bob; sounds like the ghost of Gerard Henderson in there. Total impartiality.
Bob doesn’t realise that one swallow does not a summer make.
Sky Nooz are now slamming Rudd for delaying his ETS. They slammed him when he wanted to bring in an ETS. Sigh.
I think this would be a fair point if the crisis was only a confidence issue. However, it seems clear that this is a structural issue (at least in the USA) and needs to be rectified by not only stimulus by re-regulation. To the author’s credit, he does say that Rudd’s negativity is only ‘part’ of the problem – but politically, he has no choice – if everything is alright, then there is no reason for the stimulus.
Have a read of the article… he contrasts Obama to him.
Arthur Sindinis, Howard’s Chief of Staff amkes a number of pertinent points today. Most interesting is hiw advice to Turnbull re the ETS. Not sure of how much push Sinodinis has these days, but Turnbull may be well advised to heed the following:
“The debate over the emissions trading regime should be short-circuited. The Coalition should let the scheme through and undertake to examine the fall-out if it were to win the next election”.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25457604-7583,00.html
He did very well
I think the HS and Sky News will resurrect an old song and dedicate it anew:
There’s too much inflation, bloody Kev!
Interest rates are too high, bloody Kev,
There’s a skill shortage, bloody Kev,
The unions are out of control, bloody Kev,
They’ve repealed WorkChoices, bloody Kev,
There’s too much unemployment, bloody Kev,
We need more immigration, bloody Kev,
Our border’s undefended, bloody Kev.
We’ll spend too much on defence, bloody Kev,
The debt is way too high, bloody Kev,
They’ve taken away my bonus! bloody Kev.
We’re paying too much in taxes, bloody Kev,
The global temperature’s rising, bloody Kev.
We’re stuck with carbon trading, bloody Kev
The Tigers are still losing, bloody Kev!
I don’t understand his point about people making their own coffee at home with coffee machines as a sign of people spending less. Most of those coffee machines cost hundreds of dollars. You could buy take-away coffee every workday for half a year before paying off a moderately priced coffee machine.
Awesome!
Even Sydney ABC radio is leading with the NAB figures.
Maybe the unemployment improvement wasn’t a glitch after all?
Who’d be an economist nowadays? They seem to get it sooooo wrong, soooooo often.
ShowsOn
Not with the little Breville Cafe Roma – costs about $140 and fills every cup of short or long black with a mean power-pumped bean essence topped with all the flavoursome crema you could want. I think I’m addicted …
Interesting to scan Google’s aggregation of the news and the slant given on stories by their wording of headlines.
http://news.google.com.au/news?pz=1&ned=au&ncl=dXKt_iToQjs2XfMQWeC8ZF1SNEasM&topic=b
Business conditions strengthen in Australia: NAB survey
The Australian
Business conditions ‘improved in April’
The Age
Australia business conditions improve in April-survey
Ninemsn
Australian Business Conditions Improve In April
FN Arena News
Business conditions improve thanks to Government handouts
SmartCompany.com.au
… Now pick the odd one out:
[Business conditions still bad, but stabilising: survey
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2566422.htm?section=justin
Their ABC, who else!!
Sadly Cuppa that’s par for the course these days at Aunty online
Garry Bruce @ 432
Thanks for the link. I couldn’t help but contrast Swan’s performance there with that of his opposite number Hockey’s on Insiders yesterday moening.
Chalk and cheese!
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