Fremantle by-election: May 16 (episode two)
This post is being progressively updated to follow the campaign for the May 16 by-election in the Western Australian state seat of Fremantle. Episode one followed events from Jim McGinty’s resignation on April 3 through to May 6.
Saturday, May 16
4pm. Just completed a circuit of the Fremantle booths. Carmelo Zagami was represented everywhere with volunteers wearing Liberal-ish rosettes and spruiking their candidate as “independent Liberal”, which is good if not entirely unexpected news for the Greens. The CDP and Socialist Alliance were represented at most booths, Varga (also promoted as “independent Liberal”) and Boni at about half. I encountered the DLP directly at three booths and heard talk they had been around in two others, so I suspect they have a few flying squads in action. I quite often saw batches of Jan ter Horst cards hanging off his signs, but zero actual volunteers. Not a single Family First volunteer was encountered, although they had a lot of signs about – evidently they had a small force who decorated all the booths early in the morning, but pretty much left it at that. The signs were clearly the same ones as were used at last year’s state election, including some that presented Anthony Fels as a party leader of sorts. Indeed, one discarded poster at the Christ the King School booth in Beaconsfield promoted a candidate for Cockburn. I had a chat with Alan Carpenter, who was handing out how-to-vote cards at Christ the King School. He hadn’t found the voters any less inscrutable than usual, but said voters in the Norfolk Street area where he had door-knocked were extremely engaged with the by-election and seeking a representative with a “green tinge” (not that that comes as a surprise).
12 noon. Just done my bit for democracy at the Fremantle Primary School booth, where I had no trouble amassing how to vote cards from Labor, Greens, Carmelo Zagami, Sam Wainwright, the CDP and Rosemary Lorrimar. There was one bloke there who might have been Family First, but nobody for Varga, Boni, ter Horst or the CEC (the first two surprise me, the latter don’t). Labor’s card has a photocopied back with translations into Italian, Portuguese and Croatian – I wonder if this varies from booth to booth. Lorrimar’s has the DLP logo at the top, and Tagliaferri third behind the CDP. Wainwright has Carles second and Tagliaferri third (“people and planet before profits, vote for a real worker”, quoth the Socialist Alliance volunteer as she handed me the card). Zagami has Carles fifth, Tagliaferri last and no mention of the word “Liberal”. There was no presence of any kind for either of the daylight saving camps. Will whip around to the other polling booths over the next few hours.
Friday, May 15 (late edition)
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Categories: WA By-Elections
113 Responses
Comments page: 1 | 2 | 3 |« Essential Research: 61-39 | Budget minus three days »
Nice read William.
Like Varga’s ad, seems to be a fair bit of passion, or drama , in this campaign.
by castle?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 9, 2009 at 6:48 am
Yes, Steve Boni does seem to be doing okay for funding, doesn’t he.
He spoke fairly fluently at the forum and mentioned that his Number One Thing was an ambitious project to run a rail line under Cantonment hill.
Interesting that his Number One Thing does not make it into his full page ad.
NPQ does, though.
I think Boni might be a bit sharper than Varga and detected the sharks circling. Varga got chomped.
Nevertheless the striking similarities between the style of the two candidate’s ads remain.
by SgtThursday?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 9, 2009 at 4:28 pm
Very prominent story on ABC TV news about Adele Carles’s concerns with North Port Quay. Carles’s soundbite as best as I could transcribe it: “It looks more like a Melbourne Cup than a by-election, suddenly 11 candidates popped up out of nowhere with very big ads supporting North Port Quay and opposing the Greens”.
by on May 9, 2009 at 9:07 pm
And the Sunday Times reports Tagliaferri will not seek re-election as mayor even if he doesn’t win the by-election.
by on May 9, 2009 at 9:19 pm
William,
There was also quite a big feature with profiles of the main players in The West Magazine as well.
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 9, 2009 at 10:02 pm
William,
Here is video of the ABC News Story as mentioned @3
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/05/10/2565610.htm
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 10, 2009 at 3:19 am
Green Left Weekly on the Freo by-election:
Fremantle by-election gets interesting (9 May 09)
http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/794/40894
Can the Greens snatch a win in Fremantle? (2 May 09)
http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/793/40833
Greens and socialist candidates speak (2 May 09)
http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/793/40834
Socialists, Greens collaborate in Fremantle by-election (25 April 09)
http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/792/40795
Socialist to contest Fremantle by-election (4 April 09)
http://www.greenleft.org.au/2009/790/40690
by on May 10, 2009 at 10:31 pm
The Socialist Alliance in WA seems far more keen on The Greens than anywhere else. Usually the SA derides them as bourgeois traitors to the working class.
by Oz?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 10, 2009 at 10:50 pm
Vote Sam
Labor has long ago sold out those who vote for them and instead embraced the cause of corporations, free market and capital.
Sam Wainright and his Socialist Alliance is committed to not only defending the few rights workers have left, but also to ensure workers have the right to defend their wages, safety and working conditions through collective worker action.
by luke weyland?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 11, 2009 at 10:17 am
Not true. Socialist Alliance generally gives preferences to other socialist candidates if they’re standing (which isn’t often) and then to the Greens, then other progressives and the Labor before Liberal.
We have our differences with the Greens (which is why we’re a separate party) but we’ve never accused them of being “bourgeois traitors to the working class”.
That description belongs much more accurately to the ALP!
by on May 11, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Alex,
You SA types really need to update your cliches. I’ve heard about the retro movement, but recycling hoary old slogans is very strange. The old ones never worked in the past and don’t work now.
by Greensborough Growler?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 11, 2009 at 1:20 pm
According to Peter Kennedy who was speaking with Eoin Cameron this morning, the DLP have produiced an advertisment saying that Rosemary-Anne Lorrimar is a member of the DLP and is standing as an independent because of the 500 member rule, the DLP haven’t got Party status in WA.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2009/05/11/2566169.htm
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 11, 2009 at 2:33 pm
Ok, I probably shouldn’t generalise. But I have definitely heard from some SA folk.
Not really a point worth discussing, as I said, I shouldn’t have generalised. Though I don’t really agree with you, your lot really does work quite hard.
by Oz?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 11, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Being the man on the ground William, do you have a tip for the election? How does the local mood feel?
by philofsydney?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 11, 2009 at 3:16 pm
That ALP flyer amuses me.
Have you seen Tag’s daughters?? I’m voting for him! Oh wait, I don’t live there…
by Daniel B?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 11, 2009 at 5:29 pm
New update added.
Phil, bearing in mind that I have a hopeless record at picking by-elections, my money’s on Labor. The decisive variable is the behaviour of Liberal supporters, and I expect the nomination of Tagliaferri will win a sufficient number of them over – either directly or via the many independents and conservative minors who are directing their preferences to him.
by on May 12, 2009 at 7:30 pm
Went to a Tags fundraiser tonight although the man himself was no where to be seen. Truth be known I can’t stand Tagliaferi but the thought of Fremantle falling to the extreme left, no development, out of touch with reality greens is sickening.
by perth bludger?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 13, 2009 at 1:53 am
Revolting even?
by Oz?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 13, 2009 at 7:28 am
The Greens are extreme left? God knows where Socialist Alliance fit, then… must be extra-doubleplus-extreme.
by Bird of paradox?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 13, 2009 at 3:51 pm
The Greens deserve to steal this seat from Labor.
by Bree?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 13, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Hey Will, I refer to your comment “my money’s on Labor” & I’m willing to put money on the Green’s. You name the amount! One important factor that seems to be forgotten is that Carmelo Zagami is preferencing the Greens, he is the only true Liberal candidate in the race. On another note, what do you think about Tagliaferri spitting the dummy in the Sunday Times, threatening to give up politics altogether if not elected. What a loser! How bizarre to then state on radio on the following day that he would retain both the mayoral (until October) and MP positions if elected. Superman or manic depressive?
by Sissy?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 14, 2009 at 7:47 pm
The Liberal vote will split among various candidates, including several who are putting the Greens last. Indeed, some of them will go directly to Tagliaferri as a personal vote, which is why Labor endorsed him. Your description of Tagliaferri’s recent actions is partisan hyperbole.
by on May 14, 2009 at 7:56 pm
William, it is not particularly relevant what parties like the CDP, FFP and the DLP put on their preference tickets for a lower house seat.
Their voters tend to split all over the place. In Fremantle at the last State Election the FFP preferenced the Greens last and the CDP second yet the CDP only got 18% of the prference flow while the Greens got over one thrid of the vote.
The significance of that result is that FFP voters actually reversed the recommended ticket by a factor of almost 2 to 1.
It will come down to a 2 horse race and while the ALP will pick up some conservative voters by picking a high profile candidate they will also lose votes to all those people who have a grudge against Tagliaferri or the Council. We will see on Saturday whether that particular gamble will pay off.
ps I hear on the grapevine that the ALP are having problems staffing booths. Perhaps that is why Ripper and Carps are out doorknocking, no-one else will do it.
by luke?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 14, 2009 at 11:07 pm
Gold.
by Oz?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 14, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Interesting – but how much of the remaining two-thirds ended up with the Greens at the final count?
by on May 14, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Would have ended up, I should say (assuming this is a known known).
by on May 14, 2009 at 11:15 pm
Too hard to tell but the point is they don’t follow the ticket and attract votes in very low numbers anyway.
In any event, the pertinent question is how much of the Liberal vote would have gone to the Greens ahead of the ALP because it is these voters who hold the key for this by-election?
BTW that preference flow for the Greens from the FFP (and also from the CDP) was replicated across the state.
by luke?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 14, 2009 at 11:26 pm
Most of it, no doubt – but a good many of those voters would have been following the how to vote card, or voting against McGinty. Now they might follow HTV cards of scattered conservative independents and minors, whose vote collectively if not individually will amount to something. Furthermore, these Liberals are the kind of people Labor had in mind when they poached Tagliaferri, and we all know a lot of market research went into that decision.
Clearly Tagliaferri has alienated people in his years as mayor, but I tend to think they’re the kind of voter Labor had already lost. And the Italian community, including many who normally vote Liberal, will vote for him almost en bloc. Add all that together and it seems to be that he’s the front-runner. I wouldn’t put it much higher than that though.
by on May 15, 2009 at 12:46 am
My old mum is a Liberal voter but she is voting Green just because she doesnt like Tagliaferri and the ALP.
by Glen?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 12:49 am
As I’ve always said – especially given the fact of his high profile both as Mayor, Interfoods, and most importantly the fact that his Father helped established the Fremantle Italian Club. I’ll bet 3 generations of Italians in the Fremantle Area bought their Spaghetti, Sauces, smallgoods and other items from that store and saw Peter grow up as a small boy to become Mayor – that’s loyalty for you.
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 1:10 am
and is probably holding her nose in disgust while doing so and telling her friends etc, lest being made a social outcast amongst her fellow libs
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 1:12 am
Except for those voting for Zagami, another high profile member of the Italian Community and following his htv.
by luke?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 1:23 am
But he doesn’t own a major food business which has served the local Italian Community for over 40 years.
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 1:25 am
And somehow I feel that Today’s Budget announcements will favour a major party rather than a minor one
Except for works for Fremantle Ports and other associated works – there is NOTHING for Health & Education in the Electorate.
http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Results.aspx?ItemID=131857
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 1:31 am
In my observation, and only slightly better than Glen’s statistical survey of 1:
Many loyal Liberal voters policy preferences line up pretty squarely with the ALP, particularly older voters.
They don’t vote ALP because they don’t get this or, more often, they just don’t like the ALP, nothing to do with its policies, they just don’t like or trust it. I won’t pretend to understand this or explain it. It truly is an observation.
Whatever the proportion of Liberal voters are like that, those ones will be voting Green ahead of ALP without any need or compulsion to apologise.
Psephologically, I go with William’s prediction. But its hard for me to pick the electoral mood in Freo, from overseas. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Adele gets elected straight up on 50%+1. Too many factors at play. If a “mere” 77% of those who voted Liberal at the State Election vote Green straight up, then bingo.
by Disasterboy?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 1:46 am
What tha’…?
Is that because Federal Labor delivered nothing for the Freo electorate and neither did the State Liberals.
Frank, I really love that you see positive signs for the ALP in every single event that occurs anywhere in the world.
by luke?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 1:49 am
Luke,
You know full well it will be decided on STATE issues – with the increased taxes and charges will convince enough people that they have more of a chance to a voice in Parliament by having a Labor MP who has the entire opposition to support him, than a lone Green MP.
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:00 am
Frank, until recently they had the AG and Health Minister and the highest profile member of the State Government as their member and got bugger all for it.
Why would the electorate suddenly be thinking a lowly back bencher in OPPOSITION is going to deliver where McGinty couldn’t?
Surely, if this is their thinking, it is better to have a member who is in a balance of power position?
by luke?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:18 am
Luke,
You may recall there was a lower turnout to the last election with people not bothering to vote cos they were pissed off for the election being called early.
They now have 6 months of Barnett and his policy of lead transport, which Tagliaferri has been campaigning aganist from day one as Mayor.
I’m sorry, but Carles only did well last year because of voter apathy – this time there is the Daylight Savings Referendum which will bring out the voters and they won’t waste their vote this time, having had the scare of losing the seat to the Greens.
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:26 am
Oh and Luke,
The Greens Best booth at the 2008 Election as Rottnest Primary School – unless there is a large number of Green Voters going to Rotto for the Weekend…..
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:36 am
Frank, are you seriously suggesting the DLS referendum will save the day for the ALP?
by luke?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:36 am
You may NEVER know
especially withy Voter Turnout.
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:38 am
God, the panic must be setting in at headquarters
by luke?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:39 am
I have no contact with HQ – It’s a gut feeling, Freo wanted to give Labor a scare, it worked, now they’re ready to return to the fold. Yesterday’s State Budget will be a gfactor in this.
by Frank Calabrese?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:43 am
Labor must be really panicing because as reported on Lavartus http://larvatusprodeo.net/2009/05/11/the-battle-for-fremantle/ Carpenter and Ripper have managed to get out of their limos to do some old fashioned door knocking in Fremantle (near hospital and Marine Tce).
I agree with Luke’s comment “until recently they had the AG and Health Minister and the highest profile member of the State Government as their member and got bugger all for it.
Why would the electorate suddenly be thinking a lowly back bencher in OPPOSITION is going to deliver where McGinty couldn’t?”
Also Tagliaferri is not “adored” or even “liked” as much as he (Tagliaferri” thinks he is. Also, contrary to what Frank Calbrese said Tagliaferri no longer (and has not for the last 20 years or so owned “… a major food business which has served the local Italian Community for over 40 years” – he inherited a major food business but managed to turn it into one of the least patronised coffee shops on the Capuccino strip until it finally closed its doors about 6 years ago.
by Stephen?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 4:46 am
Luke
Listen to Frank, he is your father.
by castle?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 7:05 am
Frank
I had a quick look at the lib budget via the ABC link and it looks quite reasonable.
Spending on health and education up, free travel for seniors, some sort of discount fuel card and a surplus for the next 2 years.
Appears to deliver on what they promised.
by castle?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 7:08 am
Frank, stuff like this makes you sound a bit like the opposite number of the more evangelical ‘yes to daylight savings’ campaigners. Just sayin’.
by Bird of paradox?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 7:37 am
Ahh, the smell of Labor desperation in the morning.
Fremantle would be a very nice pick up for The Greens, but I’m under no illusions. Mainly due to the massive difference in resources and party membership between Labor and The Greens.
by Oz?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 9:07 am
If ever there was unmitigated nonsense spouted as purported analysis, it is the suggestion that Eric Ripper and Alan Carpenter are doorknocking due to ALP desperation.
Firstly, it is standard practice for a leader and members of adjoining seats to doorknock on behalf of candidates in by-elections. The only time this might not happen is where the leader is also Premier and unable to do so due to other commitments.
Secondly, it is disingenuous of those opposed to Labor to criticize the party on this count. If the leader didn’t actively campaign for the candidate, the very same critics would suggest that it was because he or she was trying to distance themselves from the candidate in case he or she lost.
Additionally, it is false reasoning to consider the suggestion that voter turn-out will be higher at this by-election, with consequences for major party voting patterns, as an indication of ‘panic’. The fact of the matter is that the Western Australian Electoral Commissioner has been reported as anticipating a high turn out for the referendum. Given that we might normally expect a lower turn out for a by-election than at a general election, it is quite reasonable to state that the referendum will mitigate this pattern.
Luke, last week you advised us to stay tune for more developments on the union front. Perhaps I have missed these developments? Please let me know if your prediction has been borne out at all, or if it was simply mischievous. If the latter, it would seem to throw into disrepute anything you purport to ‘hear on the grapevine’.
by Bule?wpmp_switcher=mobile on May 15, 2009 at 2:19 pm