Comments on: EMRS: 43-36 to Labor in Tasmania

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Fri, 15 May 2009 13:51:05 +0000

Bartlett’s government was criticised in very forthright and emotional terms by Honey Bacon (widow of former Labor Premier Jim Bacon) on the front page of today’s Mercury. See http://www.themercury.com.au/article/2009/05/15/73531_tasmania-news.html

By: Oz

Oz — Thu, 14 May 2009 23:04:56 +0000

I really don’t think people are going to sympathise with a Premier using forced redundancies and the abolishment of department to hold the public sector union hostage.

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Thu, 14 May 2009 11:21:45 +0000

The change in Braddon from Libs 3 points ahead to Labor 1 point ahead between Feb and May isn’t anywhere near statistically significant. The sample sizes are only 200 (33 undecided) and 188 (29 undecided) respectively; the margin of error is massive. I think the one showing the Libs ahead was a bit dubious given that Labor beat them by 13.5 points in that electorate last time – even taking into account that EMRS’ treatment of undecideds underestimates the Labor vote and that two of the three Labor members for Braddon have been affected by scandals. Then again Braddon can be a very conservative electorate so it will probably swing back to the Liberals much more readily than the others.

I’m certain that it is EMRS’ methods rather than Hare-Clarke that is causing the bulk of the undecided response. Morgan used to poll Tassie but haven’t done so since the last state election. Morgan never got anything like that level of “undecided”.

As for the DEPHA changes I’m not sure how much those really will hurt Labor. The department’s being abolished but nearly all the jobs are being relocated. A lot of the “boo hoo, no one will manage our national parks” stuff will turn out to be nonsense and it should be easy to overshadow the issue by pointing out that you can’t make a billion-dollar GST black-hole-fixing omelette without breaking eggs. Bartlett has been fighting with the public sector unions almost since he took over the job and it hasn’t hurt him much yet (indeed he’s doing quite a clever job of making them look out of touch) ; given how many affected public sector employees would be either locked-on Labor or already voting Green he might well gain as many admirers as he loses if he markets this one right, whatever the unions say otherwise. That said, the manner of announcement/leaking was indeed not the ideal start.

It did amuse me that our Premier went and did something so drastic the day after I issued a fairly positive assessment of how his government was travelling electorally.

By: Oz

Oz — Thu, 14 May 2009 08:21:56 +0000

Yeah this department thing is firing up. Should be McKim’s biggest asset if he can play it right. Save jobs + the environment.

By: Roxanna

Roxanna — Thu, 14 May 2009 08:18:34 +0000

If they took one today after the announcement of the abolition of DEPHA, and the way it was done, I suspect the numbers would be very different. I’ll be amazed if Bartlett gets back in.

By: Scotty J

Scotty J — Wed, 13 May 2009 11:52:40 +0000

yea it does make it pretty pointless doesn’t it. But they are as reliable as the last ones (yes that does not say much) so if labor was behind and is now ahead in braddon i was just suggesting a possible reason, if it shows up in the poll or not.

not defending EMRS in the slightest but could the Hare Clarke result in higher undecideds due to the possibility of a minority government if one votes for x as well as people voting mixed ballots?

By: Oz

Oz — Wed, 13 May 2009 11:21:05 +0000

The sample was only 200 in Braddon, get rid of a quarter (24% undecided) for 150 and you end up with a completely worthless statistic.

By: Scotty J

Scotty J — Wed, 13 May 2009 11:16:24 +0000

intersting Labor seems to have improved their position in Braddon which really will be key to the election in my opinion. I doubt labor can keep that seat in Franklin.

Im not sure how it would be picked in phone survey but a change in Braddon (where Labor really has been struggling) could be due to the government coming to the Aid of the King island abattoir. These people NEVER vote labor but one should never underestimate the power of parachialism/pork. King island is small enough that bugger all people would be surveyed im guessing. I Know stuff all about the methodology.

If Labor gets those votes on King island it would be a coup!!!

By: Winston

Winston — Wed, 13 May 2009 09:14:29 +0000

24% undecided.

No other polls get anything like this. Something seriously wrong with EMRS research methods.

By: bob1234

bob1234 — Wed, 13 May 2009 07:28:00 +0000

Another state, another hopeless Liberal Party consigned to irrelevancy.