The latest fortnightly Roy Morgan survey has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 59-41 to 60-40. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is down 1.5 per cent to 34 per cent. The balance is evenly distributed among the Greens, Family First and others.
Other news:
• Antony Green tells you everything you need to know about all this double dissolution talk.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Liberal contest to replace Brendan Nelson in Bradfield could develop into a contest between two big conservative guns: The Australian’s opinion page editor Tom Switzer, and John Howard’s legendary former chief-of-staff Arthur Sinodinos.
• The Federation Press will publish a self-explanatory volume entitled Australia: The State of Democracy, edited by Marian Sawer, Norman Abjorensen and Phil Larkin of the Democratic Audit of Australia, on June 15.
• Brian Costar of Swinburne University of Technology reviews the implications of the Victorian Ombudsman’s recent report into Brimbank City Council and the related internal matters of the Victorian ALP.
• The Victorian Parliament’s Electoral Matters Committee has published the final report of its Inquiry Into Political Donations and Disclosure, which I won’t claim to have read at this stage.
• Two electoral events in Western Australian tomorrow: the daylight saving referendum, which you can discuss here, and the Fremantle by-election, which you can discuss and read about in very great detail here.
886 Comments
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Unlike the most bludgers, I reckon the 2009 Rudd/Swan Budget is based on irrational exuberance. You could call it a Green Shoots Budget.
TROUBLED auto giant General Motors says it will seek to eliminate nearly 40 per cent of its US dealers or more than 2300 sales outlets by the end of next year as part of its reorganisation.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25491363-31037,00.html
ANOTHER RUDD/GILLARD GOVERNMENT FAIL
Something they did not tout loudly in the Rudd/Swan budget: Land and Water Australia is to be closed down. Decisions based on the best available scientific information, anyone?
The Howard/Costello Government failed in terms of strategic investment in Australian science. Bludgers, this Rudd/Gillard Government decision is a bloody disgrace.
‘Closure information
The Australian Government has announced that as part of the 2009-10 Budget it will be abolishing Land & Water Australia.’
http://lwa.gov.au/
#420, Diog, about Jon Huntsman (Jr) is going to be named US Ambassador to China.
Looking at his background and especially his time as “a Mormon missionary in Taiwan”, he reminds me of the Bible bashing brigade from the South that still looking for that someone “Who LOST CHINA?”.
i sincerely hope he is not on a mission to get China back.
Presidential Election, Indonesian style:
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/05/16/presidential-candidates-take-health-tests-sunday-monday.html
The three pairs are:
1. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (Ex General, The current President, SBY) and Boediono (Current Central Bank Governor)
2. Megawati Soekarnoputri (ex President) and Gen. Prabowo Subianto (Ex President Suharto’s son-in-law and General of Special Forces)
3. Jusuf Kalla (The current VP) and Gen. Wiranto (Ex Armed Forces Chief)
Really, there is no contest.
1. SBY – has done well as the President for the last 4 years. Very popular as SBY. No major scandal or hints of corruption.
2. Boediono – a real surprise choice. Civilian and technocrat. Together with Sri Mulyani Indrawati (Coordinating minister for economic affairs and finance minister), has provided stability to the Indonesian economy. In this GFC, it still expects to grow 4%. No major scandal or hints of corruption, but anything to do money (Central Bank) smells rotten to me. They just cant help it.
3. Megawati Soekarnoputri – weak as piss. still her father’s daughter. The only thing she knows what to do is to shout “Merdeka (Freedom). She thinks it is still 1945. Should retire to cook Nasi Goreng.
4. Jusuf Kalla – a “businessman” from one of the most corrupt region in Indonesia, Makassar, Sulawesi. Where the boats for the people smugglers come from.
5. Gen. Prabowo Subianto & Gen. Wiranto – I think if Amnesty International want to put then on trial for human right abuses. say no more.
It really makes you wonder the political judgement of Megawati and Kalla that they picked two such obvious duds and liability as the VP.
But the thing with Indonesia is still, the more they change, they more the stay the same. The Military has smartly retreated in the background since the demise of Suharto in 1998. But in reality the Military is just as powerful as ever in Indonesia’s social economic and political elites.
Many praises have been lavished on the Indonesian election lately, but if you scratch below the surface, the rule of power is still prevalent with the best democracy that money can buy.
Presidential elections will be held on 8/7/09, with a run-off on 8 September, if needed.
I am in Bonner.
Boerwar–
I write water policy. Last year, I wrote a detailed lesson by lesson curriculum for a Year 10 school unit on the Murray Darling Basin, which included looking at all the water instrumentalities involved with its functioning. I’m a member of LandCare. I campaigned during the last Federal election on water issues.
Until it was ‘leaked’, weeks before the Budget, that Land and Water Australia was to be closed, I’d never heard of it.
I’ve listened to hours of rural radio banging on about L&W being closed and I’m still no wiser as to exactly what it was and what it did.
Can someone enlighten me?
Ooooh aren’t LWA naughty?
Surely a govt dept should not be using public funds to agitate against a govt decision?
And I’m sure that there’s a couple of porkies there – for example, they say they’ve been in existence for 19 years and then refer to project they’ve supported since 1993 (neat trick), and talk about contracts being broken due to their closure (illegal, if that was true – would suggest the contracts will be transferred to other depts to administer).
Yes that press release is a bit odd to say the least.
Zoomster @655 & 6
That last press release is a doozy. If that’s the level of cooperation they normally give to Government policy, it’s no wonder they are getting the chop. I think there might be a very specific interpretation of the Productivity Commission advice as well.
http://lwa.gov.au/news/2009/may/12/lwa-closure-contrary-expert-advice
We already have CSIRO Land and Water for research, and Dept of Environment, Water and Other Stuff for implementation of policy. Plus we have National Water Commission, Dept of Climate Change (one of the research areas claimed by LWA) and more specific organisations like the Murray-Darling Basin Authority.
I work in water research, and I hadn’t heard of LWA either.
Oh dear, Turnbull is being ripped apart, again, by Laurie Oakes. He just cannot handle tough interview.
…….. and Turnbull is absolutely furious and seething with Oakes
The Queensland Country Life had this piece on LWA.
http://qcl.farmonline.com.au/news/nationalrural/agribusiness-and-general/general/greens-blast-land-and-water-australia-shut-down/1507318.aspx?storypage=1
Finnigans, will there be a link for a rebroadcast of this (podcast I think it might be called?). I normally don’t watch the Sunday news shows (at the expense of the footy and footy pregames)
BUT this sounds really really good. Problem is that my 11yo plays junior footy and his games are on Sunday. Its an away game today and we will be leaving home within the next 15 to 20 minutes. Cheers 
“So says she who did NOT vote No”
Private heath firms surge, despite warnings from the oppositions and private health insurance industry that last years budget changes would cause a “mass exodus”. Untrue. Good luck with the same argument this time boys
http://www.theage.com.au/national/bonanza-for-private-health-firms-20090516-b6su.html
Albanese great on Insiders. Put Barry in his box
Turnbull simply does not seem to understand economics. For example, he claims the stimulus didnt give “bang for your buck” by comparing retail sales month to month. For example, the March figures need to be compared to what they may have been in March 2009 were it not for the stimulus, not February.
Why does he not deal in facts? He pretends Rudd has invented this debt because he likes it, rather than due to the GFC/global recession. He is losing the economic argument and that frankly is all the Howard government had going for it. They are truly lost.
652 Boerwar – You are the one so uptight by this decision, maybe you can answer Zoomster’s question at 655.
How different is Insiders without porky and the poisoned dwarf??
Juliem, i am sure a video of it will be available either on the Nine program site or the NINEMSN site. You might have to dig for it.
Let the 11yos rip. cheers.
zoomster
Mrs D is writing an essay on water policy, in particular water restrictions and it’s effects and alternatives. Do you have any advice for her? She is interested in your thoughts on allowing the trading of water permits between rural and urban areas.
And a couple other usual suspects.
It was bliss this morning.
Loved George’s final line about before any concrete is laid the Minister opening the project must be able to talk under it.
Oh geez, they’re desperate now:
From memory that trip to Chile was for the International Whaling Commission. Imagine the outcry from the Libs if he had stayed home? What do they think Garrett should have done? Ask the IWC to move the venue to Victor Habour? (they did afterall do whaling from there back in the 19C)
Rather than just attack the final total figure, how about attacking what was done on these trips. I’d love Eric Abetz to actually criticise some details rather than some gormless overall thing that is meaningless.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/17/2572688.htm
Dio
I read Mike Young (Adelaide Uni) on the water trading topic. HE seems very knowledgeable. From lectures of his I have listened to water trading is at best a partial solution until the excess fo permits is wiped out and trading extends across state boundaries. Trading water permits between urban and rural would soon wipe out some farmers. That may be entirely rational, but has ben politically avoided so far.
Mike Young’s website is here
http://www.myoung.net.au/water/
Boerwar652
Thanks for the good news! Elimination of another Howard rural pork barrel will mean less pointless duplication and mroe moeny for real research into water. I too had not heard of this group until you posted the good news about their demise. From what I saw of their website they don’t actually do hydrological research – just fund other groups doing research into water and farming with emphasis on the latter. Most of their directors are farmers. In other words, more money dissappearing into the farming lobbying industry. With the work of the CSIRO, universities and govt on policy, they seem to be purely a duplication of the efforts of others, with a focus on protecting farming with no balance of environmental or urban water uses.
Surprise, surprise. People are happier under social democracy than they are conservatism. The happiest country in the world is Denmark, where they pay two-thirds of their income in tax.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-happiest-places-on-earth-are-heavily-taxed?siteid=rss
The thatcherite notion that people want “choice” above all else is just empirically false. I recently saw Australian research on this as well. What most people want above all else is security (in the broad sense), certainty and prosperity, in that order.
Funny ol’ question everybody’s answering. I’m enrolled in Armadale (state – safe ALP) and Canning (federal – equally safe Lib for some reason, the slimey Don Randall who I voted against in 2007). I don’t live there any more, but I could never be bothered to change my details, and when the state election turned up and I lived in Cloverdale, Eric Ripper excited me so little I forgot to. Had to trek down to sunny Kelmscott to vote without messing about with absent forms, where even the Greens volunteer looked scary. These days I live about five doors up from John Hyde’s office, which would have me in two electorates both named Perth and safe ALP.
Also, when I fist got interested in politics I was living in the wheatbelt – Pearce, which will always remain safe Liberal no matter how hard Frank tries.
When I was too young to vote, I’d rant at my mum about political issues that annoyed me, notably Tampa / SIEV X, on how dreadful the Liberal govt of Howard / Reith / etc was, and I’d finish those rants with “vote for the local member, she’s good” – of course, a Liberal. It ended up that the member for the unglamorous wheatbelt (no latte strips in the Avon valley) did more good on the refugee issue than the whole of Labor at the time. I guess that’s what they call ‘being inside the tent, pissing out’.
juliem it’s not up yet. Still has last week’s interview with Swan… check back later . It’s the Today Show so a warning, there will be pictures of Richard Wilkins and Karl S.
Opps , link porblems: http://today.ninemsn.com.au/
and spelling problems too!
Big win for the Congress Party over the nationalists in India:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/ruling-congress-sweeps-to-victory-in-india-election-20090516-b6pu.html?page=-1
Possum’s name is Scott, not Andrew.
Finally got to watch the Howard interview with Speers.
Howard gave one honest answer in the whole interview. Who was the best Labor leader he had ever faced in his career? He gave it some thought, then said Rudd. Rudd was the smartest, then Keating.
Other features of the interview:
* Felt no regret or remorse that thousands have been killed because he got it wrong with WMD’s, and says he would have done it all over again.
* Thinks Rudd should thank him for inheriting a strong economy regardless of the fact that he didn’t thank Keating for likewise.
* Let it slip in the interview that business should lower their costs employing people in the recession. (That means lower pay for workers for those too stupid to work it out).
Not to mention the strong state of the economy had nothing to do with the government.
Speers was actually pretty good asking Howie about no WMD’s and its consequences. But he could have made a big name for himself if he pinned Howie for letting it slip that workchoices meant lower wages for workers, which he missed!
Is this a new format, or was Pies too busy eating to remember to attend and/or TPD too hungover?
TPD was probably in therapy after bringing himself to quote a Crikey source in his column.
669
and she wants all this in a post on this site??
I’m sure William will give you my email address if she’s interested.
Broadly though: I’m inter5ested in questions of best use and practicality. Can’t see why water should go to farms which are unviable both now and in the long term at the expense of other uses. My ideal would be a regular justification by ALL users of water for their entitlements, with evidence provided as to water savings measures adopted.
Impractical to move cities (and given that rural towns have much the same problems with water restrictions, not sure where you’d move them), so much cheaper to provide them with water from other sources.
This would include redirecting water from (non viable) rural areas, desal, reuse, stormwater etc where applicable.
Also see a need, especially with climate change, for multiple water sources. Up until recently, most cities/towns relied on dams as their sole water source. This is no longer practical – drought and fire mean dams no longer the reliable supply they once were. A wise urban area now will be planning for multiple sources. The mix will depend on the town’s individual circumstances – might be bores, tanks, desal, stormwater etc.
So short answer, no problems in my view with water going from rural to urban areas but on a case by case basis.
Can any Bludger ever recall Howard using the word “lunacy” in any interview? I honestly can’t. He used it in the Speers interview.
Howie was asked by Speers what he does in his spare time. I bet he reads Pollbludger LOL
You got a link to the interview?
Don’t worry, found it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SaJx8lQLX18
There if anyone else wants it.
Oz it was on Fox Sky News channel. Don’t know if it’s on the net.
scorpio went:
It’s probably true, Labor’s 43% voteshare in the over 60’s has to come from some sub-sample of that population.
I’ve answered your North Sydney question too.
Who or what is the “Blue Generation”? Where did this stupid habit of ascribing virtues to chonological cohorts come from? Can we get rid of it?
668, thanks, I will look for it at halftime of the early game (due to start in about 20 minutes time) …. cheers
(big spoilers to any WA Labor voters out there as I know you aren’t all like me)
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BOP @ 676,
What I fail to understand is WHY the WA version of a Labor voter (as opposed to the Adelaide or Hobart or Darwin variety, frankly anywhere else, even Brisbane) is more conservative than their counterparts elsewhere in the country. Conservatism I expect from Liberal voters and am quite pleasantly surprised when I don’t see it. But WA Labor voters (natives, not temporary like myself) are inherently more like their Liberal counterparts than they might like to admit.
677, thanks Nate
… I’ve opened another window with the link and will get it at the half.
Poss – Do you think the TPD is angling for a job with crikey?
Though George M’s last bit on Costello’s was good altho Cassidy didn’t take it up.
Costello, if in Govt. now, and without stimulating the economy during the recession would be looking at cutting $31bill. from spending in 2011-12. His graphs showed that Rudd & Swan were correct to move early to catch the recession before it gets too dire.
Also said again that Costello left a structural deficit. Loved it so wonder if Cossie will answer that.
Crickey is still an El Cheapo site and probably cant afford someone like TPD.
Butt Finns – I love the bits where they some gossip re the Libs. They think they are perfect so I grab every morsel I can. So thanks Crikey for handing out the stuff the Murdoch press won’t.
I’m at the end of the scale where I need to see them out of power for a long time to come. They’ve spent most of my life in it and I can’t see too much except wasted opportunities during those years.
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