| # | % | Swing | 2PP | Proj. | |
| Varga (IND) | 574 | 3.3% | |||
| Totten (CEC) | 44 | 0.3% | |||
| Ter Horst (IND) | 145 | 0.8% | |||
| Zagami (IND) | 927 | 5.3% | |||
| Boni (IND) | 302 | 1.7% | |||
| Du Plessis (FFP) | 158 | 0.9% | -0.8% | ||
| Tagliaferri (ALP) | 6,748 | 38.5% | -0.4% | 46.7% | 47.1% |
| Hollett (CDP) | 300 | 1.7% | -0.2% | ||
| Lorrimar (IND) | 136 | 0.8% | |||
| Carles (GRN) | 7,802 | 44.5% | 17.5% | 53.3% | 52.9% |
| Wainwright | 400 | 2.3% | |||
| TOTAL | 17,536 |
Monday
Here’s me on the by-election in Crikey.
Sunday
I’ve knocked up a map showing the primary vote swing to the Greens at the different booths. No visible pattern can be discerned, but I’ve done it so here it is. I’ve also tried to find correlations between votes, swings and demographics, and found only one worth mentioning: the Greens swing had a correlation with the Italian-speaking population of -0.47 and an R-squared value of 0.22. No doubt statisticians will tell me a sample of 10 booths doesn’t mean very much, but the scatterplot looks persuasive to my unpractised eye and it makes all kinds of sense intuitively. Equally interesting was the lack of a significant correlation between the Greens swing and the Liberal vote from the state election. That would seem to argue against the notion that a static Labor vote was swamped by Liberals moving to the Greens. Note that the lowest swing was recorded at a Catholic primary school, Christ the King in Beaconsfield. For what it’s worth, Alan Carpenter was handing out how-to-vote cards there.
Saturday
9.20pm. Antony Green: “There is a very important bit of history in this reslt. This is the first time at a state or federal election that the Greens have outpolled the Labor Party on primary votes. All previous cases where the Greens have won or come close to victory have seen Labor ahead on the primary vote and the Greens chasing Labor down on Liberal and Independent preferences.”
9.10pm. All together now …
Mea culpa to Greens pianist Geoffrey, who was told by me that his candidate would fall short by about 52-48, despite his enthusiastic protestations to the contrary.
8.42pm. So, the new maths for our already very exciting Legislative Assembly: Labor 27, Liberal 24, Nationals 4, Independent 3, Greens 1.
8.39pm. Carles now leads on the WAEC’s two-party count 8745 to 7370.
8.32pm. Now the WAEC has the Greens lead at a definitively insurmountable 7421 to 6395. I would like to thank them though for that little moment of excitement, while reminding them that that isn’t their brief.
8.30pm. Now the WAEC says Carles leads 6056 to 5535, which sounds still more like it. Too much to rein in on postals.
8.27pm. Beaconsfield PS and 1306 postal votes added. Despite what the 2PP says, I don’t see how Labor could win from those primaries.
8.24pm. WAEC count now has Carles leading 4900 to 4660, which sounds more like it. However, it does suggest that Labor are doing slightly better on preferences than I or Antony had projected. It might not even be over yet. But again, who knows.
8.22pm. So, to summarise. Thanks to the WAEC, I have absolutely no idea what’s going on. If anyone from the WAEC is reading this, please send a fact-finding mission to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission to find out how to conduct a count properly.
8.19pm. Antony Green also doesn’t appear to have any real world preference figures he can use. If the WAEC has decided that we only need to be given a lump sum two-party count, I can only say that they’ve bungled once again.
8.15pm. Hmm. The WAEC has a big, uninformative “notional distribution of preferences” which has Tagliaferri leading 4071-3824. This is extremely exasperating. Where are these votes from? Why haven’t they been recording them booth by booth like everybody else does?
8.04pm. Big win for Carles at Fremantle Primary School. I’m calling it for her.
8.01pm. Carles also has a big win at East Fremantle Primary School, making it very tempting to call it for her …
7.59pm. Carles wins the upmarket Bicton booth.
7.53pm. Carles wins Richmond Primary School, up near Bicton way, which gives Zagami his first big result. Nonetheless, that has Carles’ lead narrowing a little further on my estimate. I might also note that the Greens didn’t do a postal vote mailout.
7.52pm. ABC has Christ the King bringing Carles down only a little, to 53.2 per cent (exactly where I have it). Tagliaferri still needs some more big results.
7.46pm. Very good result for Tagliaferri at Christ the King School makes things interesting again. Interesting to note that Alan Carpenter was handing out how to vote cards there …
7.43pm. VERY surprised no other candidate is over 5 per cent.
7.41pm. Re the previous comment – White Gum Valley, the most Italian booth of all, was also a big win for Carles. No particular reason to expect the nearby Beaconsfield booths to behave differently.
7.23pm. Beaconsfield and Christ the King are two strongly Italian booths that are yet to report – but so was Palmyra, and Carles won that.
7.22pm. Another good result for Carles in White Gum Valley – 46 per cent to 39.5 per cent. Minor party vote lower than I might have thought.
7.21pm. Antony now has the Greens 2.5 per cent in front after preference projection.
7.20pm. Tagliaferri finally wins a booth, the solidly working class Phoenix.
7.18pm. Carles wins Anglican Church Hall as well, which is in a similar area.
7.16pm. Greens win the Palmyra booth as well, which isn’t their heartland. I suggest my projection flatters Labor a bit.
7.14pm. Antony’s projection has the Greens 3.4 per cent ahead.
7.13pm. St Patrick’s in – Carles wins the primary vote, but check out that projection …
7.08pm. Few teething problems with the table as usual – working through them.
7.06pm. 622 pre-polls added (along with Rottnest Island) – there’s reason to believe these might behave unusually, but at they’re at least a little bit exciting for the Greens.
6.37pm. Come on, you’d think at least Rottnest might have reported by now … Anyway, I’ve been doing a bit of work so I do get a projected two-party result, based on the booth figures calculated by Antony Green. I wouldn’t stake my wages on its accuracy though.
6.14pm. First trickle of daylight saving votes coming in. Big no majority, but it doesn’t mean anything yet.
6.05pm. Some explanations of what you will see above. Booth matching will be employed for the primary vote swings, but not the two-party preferred vote as no figures are available in Labor versus Greens terms from the state election. The figures will at first be estimates, but will be replaced with real world numbers as booths report their notional two-party counts.
6pm. Polls have closed, so welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the Fremantle by-election count. I don’t think I’ll have much to say about the daylight saving referendum, which you will in any case find covered more than adequately at ABC Elections.
679 Comments
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YOU were the one who brought up NPQ, not me
I p;ointed out an obvious positive, and you pooh pooh it – talk about Nimbyism
It’s not a question of how they bring it, it is why they would do it. (Is it just me or is this starting to feel like a Monty Python sketch?)
It is no coincidence that the coal fired power stations are in Collie where the coal is.
But you’ve forgotten about the old South Fremantle Power Station haven’t you ??
http://perthsbest.wordpress.com/2008/03/04/south-fremantle-power-station/
So my example isn’t as stupid as make out to be
It is pretty close.
They are not going to build a base load coal fired power station in the middle of the metro area so I think Adele can probably sleep easy over that one.
It was a HYPOTHETICAL QUESTION !!!!!!
OK, hypothetically then, if I was the greens member for Freo and the Liberal Government supported by the ALP planned to build a Coal Fired power station I would oppose it and would look forward to the opportunity of being dragged off the protest line by the Police (in front of the rest of the population of Fremantle who would also be on the protest line) thereby ensuring my continuing re-election for the next 100 years while the ALP and libs were chucked out of office for introducing such a stpid policy in the first place.
Hooray for me!
And what if the REST of the Population was in support of it and as a result, decided to only vote for either Liberal and ALP in both houses resulting in only 1 green in the lower house (yourself and maybe 1 or 2 in the Upper House ?
I would take my chances on that one.
I would take my chances on that one.]
And if the Media paint you and your party as Economic Vandals, and as a result Energy Prices would go up even higher than ever and thus force more people into poverty ?
Interesting. I did not know that. So if its inhumaine and stops job growth why haven’t they banned it? Which powerful group is against doing this? Is it the Middle Eastern consumer or domestic business interests?
Also, I think Carles would lose alot of support within The Greens if she supported a Freo Coal power station and may well get kicked out of the party if she did it. I can’t see it happening though.
I don’t think we should build anymore coal-fired power stations in this country ever. Although the ones already in existence don’t need to be shut down immediately, just soonish.
Luke is making an awful lot of sense here.
But I understand the potential of hypothetical thinking. Maybe the problem Frank, is the wrong electorate is used in your Hypothetical? Maybe say Adele was hypothetically elected in Collie-Preston…
Still at core this idea that Environment and Community are fundamentally antithetical to Employment and Wealth is a nonsense myth as far as I’m concerned. Just a matter of style, choices and who profits. [Steelmaking is about the only major exception, and then there are ways and means]
Heyson @560
The Live Sheep Trade is worth A LOT of money. Also, I’m pretty sure that the Arab states promised to vote for Australia to be on the UN security council in return for not scraping the trade for x years.
Oil might be another reason.
Or it might simply be that the Union that benifits from the trade backs the Libs, as the contract has not come up for renewal under Rudd, far as I know.
Frank,
If the hypothetical question that is being posed is:
What would the Greens do if they were faced with a choice between an unpopular principled position and popular political pragmatism?
I would like to think the Greens would choose the principled position even if it meant short term political pain because at the end of the day if you don’t have your integrity, you don’t have anything.
Face it, Being principled will NEVER get you elected, see the ALP during the Howard Years.
Robert Taylor in Today’s West has summed it up perfectly. Pity it’s not online so I can’t paste the relevant quote.
Oh and don’t forget what happened to Tasmania during the 2004 election when Mark Latham pandered to Bob Brown on Old Growth Forests – John Howard being hailed a hero by the CFMEU and Labor losing EVERY seat in Tasmania.
Oh and Zoomster sums it all up on the main Newspoll Thread.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/18/newspoll-56-44-10/comment-page-18/#comment-275172
Frank,
See you’ve had your hands full. I notice a lot of the Greens acolytes here are overly impressed with their virtue and apparent moral superiority. A pity their preachy sanctimony does not generate any meaningful outcomes for the community.
Evidence today from Noel Pearson and Warren Mundine who provide character references for the Greens.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25509801-5013404,00.html#
Hey, you’ve ALL missed the boat. The Fremantle by election is peanuts the important vote was the DST one and I’m not lining to up whinge about that on the DST thread. I vote Labor #1 but am happy to see the Greens get up and do well as I like lots of their policies. Most notablely the refugee one which will trash all dentention centers, etc. etc. etc. Check their home page on refugee policy. Greens are #2 on my party ID list, Democrats #1. ALP are actually #3 but I vote ALP #1 atm as I’ve not got the Democrat option any more and the Greens aren’t electable at a Federal level here in WA
.
What’s the point of being elected if you don’t have any principles? Power for powers sake? Frank admission (woo, pun).
It should be noted that the Seat of Fremantle was one of the City Electorate which voted Yes for Daylight Savings.
GG,
Yep, they’re hypocrisy is astounding – phesphos is right that the Greens maintaining the Gerrymander in the Upper House has ensured that the Right will now have the Balance of Power and will ensure that Barnett will have a free ride in getting legislation passed to have Nuclear Power Stations, GM Crops and every other anti environment legislation.
They made their own bed
Yep, and look what happened to the Democrats
Pot meet Kettle.,
NEVER Frank, have you already wiped Fremantle from your mind. I presume you mean “almost never”.
Congratulations on admitting that the only reason you were able to beat Howard was because you abandoned those much vaunted “labor values”.
Maybe you were right that Tags does share your “labor values”. Meaning a willingness to sacrifice everything you believe in just to get into power.
Wow, it must actually feel shattering for you to admit that is what has occurred.
Read Robert Taylor in Today’s West an d educate yourself.
Enjoy being represented by a political orphan
I think the Democrats example supports my argument, not yours.
Nope, The Democrats now have NO representation in ANY Parliament, and haven’t even got the required 500 members for Party Status in WA.
My point remains.
Enjoy being politically impotent.
Obviously, the question is why. I believe one of the reasons was because they sold out their principles. You think it’s because they were too principled? I think you’re in a party of one with that train of thought.
No, because they got conned with 30 pieces of Silver from Howard, same with the Sale of Telstra.
Like I said, don’t come crying for Labor support when Barnett Screws Fremantle over, and he WILL !!!!!!
I am struggling to follow your point here Frank.
The Dems have all but disappeared because they compromised their principles and did a deal with Howard.
The Greens will refuse to compromise their principles resulting in an inability to obatin power and, presumably on your argument, also cease to exist.
They have a member in the South Australian Legislative Council.
When people find out that Femantle got shafted because The Greens opposed a measure which would bring benefit to the electorate they will dump the Greens like a ton of bricks.
Carles will NOT deliver on a light Rail system because basically she is a power of one.
If Labor promised it, when they retained Government they could deliver on the promise, the Greens can’t simply by numbers.
As I said, READ Robert Taylor.
Wow, that’s real power, just like the Barnett Government is the only Liberal Government in the Country.
Why would Barnett do this?
If I was Barnett, I would find it much more mirthful to do as much as possible to assist Carles in her first term to ensure her re-election and put the ALP one more seat away from majority Government.
That will NEVER Happen, if you believe that, I have a nice bridge for sale.
I was sure I detected some glee on barnetts face when the ALP lost on of their safest seats, maybe I was mistaken.
Now you are talking Frank. That is a perfect project for the Libs to fund just to demonstrate the power of one.
You have to be joking, The Libs bvuilding a Railway, this from the SAME party who closed the Fremantle Line.
Yep, The Greens really are deluded.
If I was a Liberal supporter I’d be loving this argument.
Please, carry on…
So you support the Liberals selling their souls to elect an impotent Green so they can maintain power.
You lot are just like the Democrats.
That’s right Bule, only the ALP are allowed to sell their souls to maintain power.
It’s called being pragmatic and being a realist, unlike the Greens and their holier than thou attitude.
And Bule just blew your little argument here.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/18/newspoll-56-44-10/comment-page-21/#comment-275324
Frank, I know you’re on a bit of a roll here, but let’s get something straight.
I’m a Labor supporter, you goose.
I see virtually no value in the argument you’re having here. The simple fact is that many members of our party (including, to a degree, me) share views that are remarkably similar to those of some Greens members. The difference between our Left and their Moderates (yes, that’s what I’m calling you) is not that great. Now, having said that, some in the Labor party share views remarkably similar with some of the more Moderate in the Liberal party (including, to a degree, me).
By carrying on in this way, in my opinion, you and others like you here (read, Greensborough Growler) do neither the Labor party nor progressive politics (which I consider Labor to be at the forefront of) more generally any favours.
All this achieves is giving succour to conservatives.
It appears to me, from the short time that I’ve been around Pollbludger, that it is the more moderate Greens that bother to post here, but the less moderate conservatives. If you’re trying to convince those moderate Greens of the virtues of Labor (which in my opinion at least partially align with the virtues of the Greens, while conceding that both parties have their flaws), in my opinion you’re failing.
If you’re trying to demoralize them by highlighting their flaws while diminishing their virtues, you’re failing.
That said, Greens commenters here (who should really know better) are enthusiastically joining the fray.
Like I said, if I were a Lib…
But I’m just exposing their hypocrisy, nothing mor, nothing less- they thing they are so pure of principle that they are willing to be elected by accepting the liberal vote then they’re seelling themselves out like the Democrats dis with the GST. And Luke and Rebecca and Oz Moderate ?
Gimme a Break, their the Greens answer to Glen and GP.
Unfair frank unfair
unlike the libs, at least the greens have compassion
Oh and knowledge as well
Yeah, we want to destroy all buildings, murder coal workers and live in trees don’tcha know.
I was referring more to their Zealtory than anything else.
Well that’s the image to your average non politically aware Australian.
Even though our electoral system has its flaws, I don’t think we are allowed to tell liberal voters that we don’t accept their vote. What exactly should we have done, insisted they vote for Tags?
We tried our best, we told them he was actually a Liberal draped in ALP clothes but they didn’t believe us. You insisted he held Labor values not us, we always said he was a Lib.
Hang on Frank, we are only hypothetically selling ourselves out, remember
But you are right, I don’t think I am a moderate.
Colin Barnett tells the ABC the North Port Quay backers’ campaign is a “waste of money”, and a redevelopment of the area is “years and years away”. Round one to Adele Carles?
Frightened Labor stooges do not make up the “average” Australian population.
But as Robert Talyor said, it didn’t matter WHO the ALP pre-selected, we wouldn’t have won without the Liberals standing a candidate. The Greens would’ve been crying foul if the Party pre-selected a local union hack.
The Double Standards by the Greens is astounding.
Amen Brother William.
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