Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Reuters Poll Trend: 56.6-43.4

Reuters Poll Trend is back in business, presumably resuming its old methods of providing a weighted aggregate of results from Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen. As such it tells us nothing we didn’t already know, but its trend line is a handy thing to have. The current finding combines three weeks of results and has Labor’s two-party lead at 56.6-43.4, down from 57.3-42.7 previously.

Couple of legal matters to attend to:

• A legal challenge is proceeding against Labor’s 74-vote win in the seat of Chatsworth at the March 21 Queensland election. The LNP cites incidents of double voting and a strong overall result for Labor on absent votes as evidence of fraud. I’ve got a hat waiting to be eaten if the challenge is upheld.

• Gary Clark, husband of the former Lindsay MP Jackie Kelly, has been given the maximum fine of $1100 and ordered to pay more than $2000 in costs for his role in the distribution of fake pamphlets purporting to be from the “Islamic Australia Federation” in the week before the federal election. The ABC reports Magistrate Geoff Bradd aptly observing it was “difficult to think of a worst case of breaching the electoral act”, for which the penalties would seem to need strengthening.

• Note posts below on the latest state Newspoll results for Western Australia and South Australia.

423 Comments

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  1. 201
    The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    I don’t feel that way about my own previous

    JV, do tell.

  2. 202
    jaundiced view
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Bob1234
    I missed that – as soon as the M Johns question was asked I took a comfort break.

  3. 203
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    “Hou je smoel” is Dutch not Afrikaans

  4. 204
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    does that mean I get a pass when one of the urchins comes crying to momma over a smackdown?

    Cries to momma will be evaluated on the basis of their objective merits.

  5. 205
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    “Hou je smoel” is Dutch not Afrikaans

    arent they, like, related ??
    :)

  6. 206
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    Finns

    The rate of abused children is hard to be exact about but most estimates are about 20% of girls were abused and about 5% of boys were.

    Leventhal examined a number of population-based prevalence studies conducted in a variety of countries (limited to those that defined child sexual abuse as contact cases in children less than 16) and arrived at a very crude mean child sexual victimisation prevalence rate of 21 per cent for women and 6 per cent for men. (J.M. Levanthal, ‘Epidemiology of Child Sexual Abuse’, in: Oates, R.K. (ed.), Understanding and Managing Child Sexual Abuse, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Sydney 1990.)

  7. 207
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Gus, yup. The Boers were originally Dutch colonists

  8. 208
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Oh come now Diogenes, child abuse its so passe as a topic.

    What I really want to know is are you having a good recession?

  9. 209
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Ellis to Wong:

    Who aren't you talking to!?

  10. 210
    The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    Diog, thanks for that. Now i know 2% is not = 20% is not = 5%.

  11. 211
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    What I really want to know is are you having a good recession?

    I clearly recall you said we would be recessing by last December.

    You were wrong by 6 months!

  12. 212
    The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    The Boers were originally Dutch colonists

    Too much Biltong

  13. 213
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Diog, thanks for that. Now i know 2% is not = 20% is not = 5%.

    Finns
    it dont matter to Dio, after all its only numbers….

  14. 214
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    ESJ

    I didn’t bring it up!! And what kills me is that I am one of the most rabidly anti-religion person on the blog and I’m bloody well sticking up for the priests. All the religious bloggers here who bucket me when I make a Dawkinsian comment have deserted me.

    I haven’t noticed the GFC except my interest rates are less and I’ve had to buy all these books on economics. (I bought Krugman’s book on depression economics today.)

    Albert

    I’m getting a bit suspicious of the guy who quoted that study. The only references to it on the internet are from him.

  15. 215
    fredn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Except for his silly comment regarding the sex in rugby incident.

    I don’t know, it happened 5 years ago, the New Zealand police did
    pursue it, I assume for good reason yet the man that has been tried and convicted by the media. A five year old mess has now dragged in the mans family. I think Tony Abbot was right, do unto others as you would have done unto you. I bet Tony Jones would not like what was done by 4 corners done unto him.

  16. 216
    The Finnigans
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    This is too much. I am going to bed.

    A pedophile Catholic priest who claimed he was giving an altar boy an anatomy lesson when he sexually molested him has pleaded guilty to five indecent assault charges.

    Asked by police why he took the boy to the secluded bush location and touched his penis, Gannon replied he was explaining the "differences in anatomy".

    "I thought it was less formal rather than inviting him into the presbytery and that's all," he told police.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/priest-says-molestation-was-anatomy-lesson-20090521-bgz1.html

  17. 217
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    I didn’t bring it up!! And what kills me is that I am one of the most rabidly anti-religion person on the blog and I’m bloody well sticking up for the priests.

    It was me who dun it yr honour. But I was never asserting that ALL priests are paedophiles, that would be stoopid.

  18. 218
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    fredn,

    It’s actually 7 years old.

  19. 219
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    The real reason wind farms are eeviiil

    Reports from Taiwan suggest that large numbers of goats may have died of exhaustion because of noise from a wind farm.

    A farmer was quoted as saying he had lost as many as 400 animals after eight giant wind turbines were installed nearby.

    Officials suspect that noise may have caused the goats' demise through lack of sleep.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/21/2577660.htm?section=justin

  20. 220
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    I don’t know, it happened 5 years ago, the New Zealand police did
    pursue it, I assume for good reason yet the man that has been tried and convicted by the media. A five year old mess has now dragged in the mans family. I think Tony Abbot was right, do unto others as you would have done unto you. I bet Tony Jones would not like what was done by 4 corners done unto him.

    It was 7 years ago, and her work mates said she had bragged about being involved in such incidents before with footballers, and showed no signs of ‘trauma’ the day after this one. In fact she was bragging about it this one too. Simply put, she has very little credibility, and yet the ABC in their rush to try and defend 4 Corners pathetic excuse for journalism are still pushing it with a non-consentual slant. It’s sickening.

  21. 221
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    SNIP: Not off to a good start, ESJ – The Management.

  22. 222
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    It was 7 years ago, and her work mates said she had bragged about being involved in such incidents before with footballers, and showed no signs of ‘trauma’ the day after this one. In fact she was bragging about it this one too.

    These assertions have been refuted by a 4 Corners press release:

    A few points of clarification:
    # Clare was not paid for the interview. Payment is contrary to ABC Editorial guidelines. Her only requirement was that we protect her identity.

    # Clare has not "boasted" about the fallout from the story. She is in hiding from the media, and has made no comment about the consequences of the story for others.

    # The program was extensively researched based on police material, medical reports and the first- hand accounts of participants, not hearsay from people unconnected with the events.

    # The New Zealand police have not made any adverse comment about the program. They have gone on the record to say that suggestion is completely untrue.

    # Most of the activity that took place during the incident is not disputed. Players and staff gave graphic accounts to police of the sexual activity. One player told police that at least one of them had climbed in through the bathroom window and crawled commando-style along the floor of the room.

    # We stated explicitly in the story that we were not focussing on the issue of consent in relation to the incident in Christchurch. We stated simply that Clare made a complaint to police. This was investigated at the time. The players say she consented and no charges were laid. The focus of this incident was the role of group sex in rugby league culture and the consequences for the woman involved.

    # As far as Clare’s state of mind at the time is concerned, when she made a complaint to Christchurch police a few days after the incident, police noted her distress in their reports. She was in tears and found it very difficult to describe what had happened. Days later, the police also noted that some comments she made suggesting she was not distressed were a mechanism for coping with what had happened.

    # The manager of the hotel in Christchurch, Clare’s boss Keith Burgess, said that Clare was “a stable person” and “the last person to be involved in that kind of thing.” Clare says she doesn’t know the owner of the hotel who has recently made derogatory remarks about her.

    # The events later in the evening at the hotel are disputed. Player Daniel Ninness said last week that Clare was not distressed leaving the hotel. Clare told police in signed statements at the time that Ninness was kind to her and came to her rescue and she relied on him for support to get home. We attempted to contact Ninness prior to broadcast but were unsuccessful.

    # Four Corners sought interviews with all the players and staff from the team that we were able to track down prior to broadcast. No one wanted to give an on-camera interview. Some spoke freely to Four Corners, others did not. We identified those people whose presence was confirmed by more than one firsthand account. They were Matthew Johns, Brett Firman and Paul Gallen, who told us he came into the room at the end.

    # Matthew Johns spoke to Four Corners on numerous occasions about the events and we included comments he made in the story. He declined however to give an on-camera interview to Four Corners and answer more detailed questions about his role in the incident. We told Johns in advance of the broadcast that the young woman’s testimony was moving, that she had clearly suffered after the event and had been psychologically damaged by it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2009/s2575275.htm

  23. 223
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    SNIP: Quote from deleted comment deleted - The Management.

    Figures?

  24. 224
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Penny Wong was as dismal as usual on QANDA tonight. Bob Ellis slaughtered her. He managed to get in every major criticism of her in about five cutting quips. And she’s getting slaughtered on the lack of vision meme.

    South Korea spent 80% of its stimulus package on the environment.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/21/south-korea-enviroment-carbon-emissions

  25. 225
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    These assertions have been refuted by a 4 Corners press release:

    That doesn’t refute what I asserted at all

  26. 226
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    SNIP: Not off to a good start, ESJ - The Management

    Cmon WB, it took him all of 58 minutes to contain his vitriolic spiteful post
    ;)

  27. 227
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Sorry William I meant to include “ex” before “Labor” in the unmentionable.

    Priests of course remain fair game.

  28. 228
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    What vitriol? What spite? I love you as a fellow personhood Gusface.

  29. 229
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    They don’t, actually – I just don’t see anyone treating them as such. Maybe I’ve missed something.

  30. 230
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    That doesn’t refute what I asserted at all

    Well sorry, but I think this:

    As far as Clare’s state of mind at the time is concerned, when she made a complaint to Christchurch police a few days after the incident, police noted her distress in their reports. She was in tears and found it very difficult to describe what had happened. Days later, the police also noted that some comments she made suggesting she was not distressed were a mechanism for coping with what had happened.

    Refutes part of your claim. Moreover, on Media Watch this week, the victim was quoted as saying that she has never even MET some of the people who have accused her of boasting, let alone worked with them!

  31. 231
    Steve K
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Bob Ellis slaughtered her...

    Ellis came across as a drunk and a bore – someone who pays no respect to the basic ‘rules’ of civilised discussion.

  32. 232
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Priests of course remain fair game.

    Why not? Why should they be immune from criticism?

  33. 233
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    The bitter greenies may dislike Wong but more people dislike Bob Ellis.

  34. 234
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Refutes part of your claim. Moreover, on Media Watch this week, the victim was quoted as saying that she has never even MET some of the people who have accused her of boasting, let alone worked with them!

    I’m sure she was quoted saying many things. I’ll take the word of someone willing to have their face on camera over someone who doesn’t.

  35. 235
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Ellis came across as a drunk and a bore - someone who pays no respect to the basic ‘rules’ of civilised discussion.

    What rules? Whenever I hear undefined rules, I think of censorship.

  36. 236
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    ESJ,

    You’ll be pleased to know that the hypocrisy and sanctimony have not abated during your absence. We’ve got a particularly large crop of Green hubris this year.

    Plenty of easy pickings for a charmer like yourself.

    Cheers

  37. 237
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    Steve K

    Absolutely true. But he still slaughtered her. I wasn’t scoring based on the niceties of debate. Even Tony Abbott was wincing. ;)

    ESJ

    You haven’t told us how you celebrated Obama’s inauguration yet.

  38. 238
    Steve K
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Rule number 1. One person speaking at a time. Nothing at all to do with censorship.

  39. 239
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Oh yeah give me some of that old time political correctness GG!

  40. 240
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Shows ON – should ex Labor MP’s?

  41. 241
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    William I feel you hold me to a higher standard – maybe you should create an elite division here in your little money making venture?

  42. 242
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    I like the fact that Q and A raises passions

    I was impressed with wongs delivery and serenity ,she copped it on the cheek and but still kept smiling

    ellis is a stirrer.

  43. 243
    Steve K
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    Tony Abbott was wincing

    I dislike Abbot but he was quite reasonable tonight (compared to his previous Q&A efforts) and I think his wincing was due to the question in his mind “How much has Ellis had to drink?”

  44. 244
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    I’ll take the word of someone willing to have their face on camera over someone who doesn’t.

    I don’t think the girls who accused her of boasting appeared on camera, why do you believe them?

  45. 245
    Dario
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think the girls who accused her of boasting appeared on camera, why do you believe them?

    They did

  46. 246
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Diogenes a sad day 20 January, a truly great man John Sidney McCain III wrongly denied the presidency.

  47. 247
    ShowsOn
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    Shows ON - should ex Labor MP’s?

    Be immune from criticism? No. But you asserted something without providing any data to backup your assertion, which made it just a smear.

    William I feel you hold me to a higher standard - maybe you should create an elite division here in your little money making venture?

    ESJ is reflecting on the chair!

    Rule number 1. One person speaking at a time. Nothing at all to do with censorship.

    Abbott interjecting a few times when Ellis was speaking.

  48. 248
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    ellis is a stirrer.

    Ellis is a farting falstaff of a drunk. Labor’s equivalent of John Elliott but without the charm and sparkling wit.

  49. 249
    Gusface
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    I’ll take the word of someone willing to have their face on camera over someone who doesn’t.

    Umm
    lets see who i believe

    Gallop,gyngell didnt actually support johns m is my understanding

  50. 250
    Diogenes
    Posted Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    ESJ

    What about the state of your beloved Liberal Party? Do you want Turnbull to lead you to the 2010 electoral defeat or someone else? What’s your succession plan?

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