The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 62-38 to 59-41. There are also interesting breakdowns on attitudes to the budget and the retirement age by employment and self-identified social class: office workers think the higher retirement age fair, tradesmen and manual labourers very much the opposite, while class reaction to the budget is how you would traditionally expect with Labor in power. The survey also finds the public slightly more receptive to a senior role for Peter Costello than they were three months ago.
Other news:
• Two challengers have emerged against incumbent Dennis Jensen in the Liberal preselection for Tangney – neither of whom is Matt Brown, who defeated Jensen in the local vote ahead of the 2007 election only to have the result overturned on the intervention of John Howard. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports the conteders are Alcoa government relations and public policy manager Libby Lyons, last seen angling for the state seat of Nedlands (and apparently the granddaughter of Joseph Lyons), and Toyota Finance executive Glenn Piggott.
• The ABC reports that Tasmanian David Bartlett has “reconsidered” his original proposal for fixed elections on March 20 after “consultation with key stakeholders”, which hopefully includes Antony Green (the move would have set up a permanent clash with elections in South Australia). He instead proposes to allow a future Premier “flexibility” within a three-month period, similar to what Colin Barnett is advocating in Western Australia. An draft that was being circulated for consultation early in the year allowed for early Legislative Assembly elections if the Legislative Council so much as blocked a bill the Assembly deemed to be “significant”, and provided for an Assembly election in the event of a no-confidence motion or if the Council blocked supply.
• Staying in Tasmania, David Bartlett helpfully puts out a press release each time a Labor candidate is nominated for next year’s state election – the latest being Franklin candidate Kate Churchill, whose role as operations manager of Colony 47 would appear to make her a community organiser in the Barack Obama mould.
• Andrew Landeryou at Vex News runs a scan of an Australian Financial Review report that the Labor national executive “may be asked to run preselections for state seats in the western suburbs of Melbourne to try to defuse factional tensions before the election next year”. As Landeryou puts it, “Some say this is code for a cross-factional and multi-sub-factional agreement that the member for Keilor George Seitz be encouraged to retire”, following the state Ombudsman’s recent probings into Brimbank City Council and their bearing on the state preselection for the 2008 Kororoit by-election. Landeryou raises his eyebrows at the assertion that the arrangement’s backers, said to include Kim Carr of the Left and Bill Shorten of the Right, want preselection for Brendan O’Connor’s federal seat of Gorton taken out of local hands, as there as been no suggestion he might be troubled.
• Writing in The Australian’s weekly State of the Nation wrap-up of state politics, Imre Salusinszky returns to a favourite theme: the unlikelihood of an early federal election given the need for “mini-redistributions” if the redistributions for New South Wales and Queensland are yet to be finalised. In particular, he notes that a mini-redistribution would have to create three Coalition seats from two (Fadden and Moncrieff) in Queensland, while merging two Labor seats (Sydney and Lowe) in New South Wales – as well as giving the Coalition a stick with which to beat Labor for calling an election under such inopportune circumstances.
2,080 Comments
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Dr Rex Paterson held Dawson for Labor for nine years, so I think if Bidgood keeps up the legwork in the electorate and a reasonable public profile, that he is in no more danger of losing Dawson for the ALP as most other marginal seat Labor MP’s.
At least Switzer is under 40 (Sinodinus isn’t even under 50).
You guys need to spend the next decade stacking your front and back benches with people under 40.
No 1899
Glen, as long as they’re young I don’t mind too much. There is plenty of time to be groomed. Though, we should be looking to get some high profile business people into the party, not just staffers and hacks.
I can’t see why business people would want to spend up to a decade sitting on the opposition benches.
Another fact about Dawson, Labor only lost the seat to the Nats after Dr Paterson retires. It is a hard seat to win off a strong sitting member.
“Retired”
I agree it really gives me the red arse how often party hacks get safe seats when we could lure more successful people into these seats and get them into politics.
I wonder if Artie and Tom would try their luck at a marginal?
Turnbull????
*Midnight. Turns into pumpkin*
He was in Government for ages too remember.
Q&A has ended until late July…. nooooooooo!!
They couldn’t get any Liberals, because they wanted them to come ready to explain their policies, but none of them had any idea.
So they had to shut down the show else Senator Erica Betz was going to complain that they weren’t balanced.
Yeah, I spose Brendan Nelson represents the scraping of the bottom of the Liberal barrel.
Q&A was fun…
Poor old Nelson…
http://www.australianbusinessparty.com.au/gpage.html
I see visions: The wealthy pay off their debt and sleep in their own comfy bed at night. The poor can’t afford to and so must break rocks alongside the traintracks, singing ‘American spiritual folk songs’. Is my daydream here what they are proposing?
Or they want the prisons to be like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIP1okixlfE
Are the Australian Business Party federally registered? Can someone direct me to a reliable and up-to-date list of federal (and state) political parties? I can’t easily find one on the AEC site. So what’s with this ABP, dissent within Liberal ranks, ie “splitters”? Are they well financially backed or flash in the pan or front for some seedy nut jobs/ dodgy big business tycoons?
Well they are listed as a Party according to the NSW Electoral Commission.
http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/political_parties/local_government_registered_political_parties
And of course they tried to run a candidate at the Fairfield City Council Mayoral election.
http://fairfield-advance.whereilive.com.au/news/story/australian-labor-party-battle-looms/
http://aec.gov.au/Parties_and_Representatives/Party_Registration/Registered_parties/index.htm
Not on the AEC but some of their policies are clearly within the federal domain – such as changes to the constitution.
Frank, they’re only registered for councils, not for state politics.
http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/political_parties/state_registered_political_parties
Carers Alliance: Who’s this mob? They like carers? Fair enough, they work bloody hard.
Communist Alliance: Didn’t know about this one, “spliters” I bet. Trots or Maoists?
Hear Our Voice: No, I’ve never heard of you before.
Young National Party of Australia: Why do they bother? They don’t actually run do they?
Pauline’s United Australia Party: Sorry Glen, UAP is already taken
They stood candidates in the Senate at the last Federal Election.
http://www.carers.org.au/
More climate change denial from The Australian:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25552775-5013479,00.html
http://www.tonimclennan.com/yourrights2.htm
Hear our Voice
Mr X was above the line and Ind, you fool! She left the ALP coz she didn’t get preselected.
http://slackbastard.anarchobase.com/?p=1626
http://www.theage.com.au/national/alive-and-red-communists-back-from-the-dead-20090115-7i6o.html
Swanston Street is cool.
http://www.cpa.org.au/garchve07/g1330.html
Oh, I read a copy of “the Guardian” (Communist Alliance Propoganda Machine) the other day, found it at a cafe. Didn’t take in who it was from though. No way near as good as GreenLeft I must say.
http://www.cpa.org.au/index.html
http://www.cpa.org.au/about-us/index.html
They appear to be Marxist-Leninists. This is what is wrong with the large parties (sic):
etc, etc, etc.
Biden jabs Obama:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0509/Bidens_jab.html?showall
GP
[Coalition ministers don’t believe in spending an egregious amount of money without so much as a cost-benefit analysis].
That is a load of delusional rubbish.
The Tasmainian Hospital takeover, remember that back of the envelope desperate move in 07. WC booklets, mousepad, fridge magnets, designed and printed at a cost to the taxpayer, all being stored in containers all over the country, at a cost to the taxpayer. Just two examples I can remember off the top of my head.
“Tasmanian”
Shows On @ 1925
Absolutely nothing new in the article, which I suppose is not surprising given Plimer has just written 500 pages on the topic. Boring. I am with Plimer on a few things. For example, that the Noah’s Ark on Ararat stuff was a shonk.
I am not sure why ‘The Australian’ bothers. The thing that does fascinate me about Plimer is whether he is at all self-aware that he may be entertaining our hoary old Bludger mates, Messers Pot Kettle, Straw Man and Selected Evidence. I would love to know.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the nuclear power construction program is running into a few problems of its own. The Finnish one keeps getting all the news, I suspect because there is a bit of pubic positioning between various players about who is to blame for what, exactly, and who therefore will have to pay for the delays in construction and the 50% cost overrun. The rivers of red ink will run to billions, as everything seems to these days, except when it is running to trillions.
It would be very interesting to know how the other 40-50 plants currently being constructed are really travelling. Many of them are apparently going OK – hard to tell for some because it isn’t as if we are getting 100% transparency from China, for example. In any case, I hope they are all going a bit better than the Finnish one – because the construction process is costing a motza of scarce capital and a motza in CO2 emissions. We need these babies to get cooking as quickly as possible.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/29/business/energy-environment/29nuke.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=business
CF 1928 Whoops-a-daisy.
‘pubic’='public’
Completely offtopic, but I think I’ve found William’s Theme Song courtesy of The Herd, which was co-written by Peter Framptom
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW1XeHEpRLY
Yet again La Stupenda write a column in The Age dredging almost every political cliche from the past couple of months back into the light.
Yes, she even mentions Hostie Gate.
It’s all part of The Narrative, see? Must be a paradigm. The Devil’s in the detail, and all that.
(I can do cliches too)
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/the-devil-is-in-the-detail-20090528-boxf.html
Why do they pay this person and what do they pay her for this canned, regurgitated commentary?
The $10 billion water package that Howard cooked up overnight in his office didn’t have any input from Treasury at all. Remember they tried to argue that they don’t require advice or even seek it in many cases.
BB, agree completely. No wonder the end of MSM journalists and journalism is nigh. They moan and groan about it, yet they keep on serving to us rubbish like that.
What insight, wisdom and value do they bring? They used to be our gatekeeper, now there is no longer any gate to keep.
The sooner they go they better.
I like the fact that she thinks the preselection should have been a laid down misere for her because she was the only woman running.
Doesn’t appear to have any burning reason to run, other than she wants to be a politician.
Try campaigning for twelve years in an unwinnable seat, sweetheart, then get back to me!
The mother of all back-of-an-envelope don’t-worry-about-cost-or-consequence legacy from the Howard years was his parting gift we still haven’t got rid of: The Intervention.
Cannot agree with Comrade Rupe more. The traditional print media will go especially when it comes to advertising. The old way of look and stare of the Ads, then do nothing, is no longer good enough.
On the spot, social, active participation and interaction between the media and mobile devices are the future MO. A new Call-to-action media will emerge or maybe it is emerging already.
Gus,
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/future-of-newspapers-is-digital-murdoch-20090529-bpar.html
point of order to Vera et. al.,
I will be off at Burswood Casino after roughly 8am local time here (when kids leave for school) and won’t be back until my kids get home. Given that, if you are waiting to see who the pollies pick in the AFL this week, I won’t have that posted until dinner east coast time, it won’t get up during the early afternoon. You will probably have to make your tips without knowing and then just catch me on your dinner hour for that post
someone blaming the GFC on Clinton …..
Hate to break it to ya rupe ,you old fossil you
But it already happens now, get with the times sunshine.
As someone (income roughly 80% of AWE all employees) who received the $900 tax bonus, I was curious why my other half (income 60% of…) did not.
Just checked the eligibility criteria and determined that partner’s tax offsets and other credits (item G on 2008 notice of assessment) exceeded taxable income (item A) plus medicare levy (item O) by $40.81. Ouch.
She also threatened to sue the ABC during the last election campaign because they weren’t taking her seriously enough.
House prices on the rise in all major cities except Perth. I wonder how Steve Keen is feeling (that economic expert the ABC are fond of quoting and having on their current affairs shows) he said house prices would fall 40% and sold his house. He also says unemployment will go above 30%, i think he could be wRONg again
I dont understand why some people think Robertson is in danger of being lost to the ALP at the next election. It seems fairly certain that there will be a new ALP candidate, the demographics seem to favour the ALP, (the area has been a cemetery waiting room for upper middle class Sydneysiders for yonks!), voters tend to vote for party leaders at general elections unless there is something especial in their local candidate for good or bad, the polls are and have been very good for the ALP in NSW notwithstanding the odour (subsiding?) around the State ALP. I would be very surprised if the ALP did lose that seat, indeed I believe that they will in fact pick up seats in NSW, Qld and WA.
Don’t let GG see this, apparently Labor didn’t swing to the right at all in the 1980s! He’s still living in the 1970s! lol!
Bob,
My best advice is that you should never take a sleeping pill and a laxative at the same time.
GG
you giving tips on how to fertilize his vegie bed
should be how NOT to fertilize his vegie bed
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