The latest weekly Essential Research survey has Labor’s two-party lead narrowing from 62-38 to 59-41. There are also interesting breakdowns on attitudes to the budget and the retirement age by employment and self-identified social class: office workers think the higher retirement age fair, tradesmen and manual labourers very much the opposite, while class reaction to the budget is how you would traditionally expect with Labor in power. The survey also finds the public slightly more receptive to a senior role for Peter Costello than they were three months ago.
Other news:
• Two challengers have emerged against incumbent Dennis Jensen in the Liberal preselection for Tangney – neither of whom is Matt Brown, who defeated Jensen in the local vote ahead of the 2007 election only to have the result overturned on the intervention of John Howard. Andrew Probyn of The West Australian reports the conteders are Alcoa government relations and public policy manager Libby Lyons, last seen angling for the state seat of Nedlands (and apparently the granddaughter of Joseph Lyons), and Toyota Finance executive Glenn Piggott.
• The ABC reports that Tasmanian David Bartlett has “reconsidered” his original proposal for fixed elections on March 20 after “consultation with key stakeholders”, which hopefully includes Antony Green (the move would have set up a permanent clash with elections in South Australia). He instead proposes to allow a future Premier “flexibility” within a three-month period, similar to what Colin Barnett is advocating in Western Australia. An draft that was being circulated for consultation early in the year allowed for early Legislative Assembly elections if the Legislative Council so much as blocked a bill the Assembly deemed to be “significant”, and provided for an Assembly election in the event of a no-confidence motion or if the Council blocked supply.
• Staying in Tasmania, David Bartlett helpfully puts out a press release each time a Labor candidate is nominated for next year’s state election – the latest being Franklin candidate Kate Churchill, whose role as operations manager of Colony 47 would appear to make her a community organiser in the Barack Obama mould.
• Andrew Landeryou at Vex News runs a scan of an Australian Financial Review report that the Labor national executive “may be asked to run preselections for state seats in the western suburbs of Melbourne to try to defuse factional tensions before the election next year”. As Landeryou puts it, “Some say this is code for a cross-factional and multi-sub-factional agreement that the member for Keilor George Seitz be encouraged to retire”, following the state Ombudsman’s recent probings into Brimbank City Council and their bearing on the state preselection for the 2008 Kororoit by-election. Landeryou raises his eyebrows at the assertion that the arrangement’s backers, said to include Kim Carr of the Left and Bill Shorten of the Right, want preselection for Brendan O’Connor’s federal seat of Gorton taken out of local hands, as there as been no suggestion he might be troubled.
• Writing in The Australian’s weekly State of the Nation wrap-up of state politics, Imre Salusinszky returns to a favourite theme: the unlikelihood of an early federal election given the need for “mini-redistributions” if the redistributions for New South Wales and Queensland are yet to be finalised. In particular, he notes that a mini-redistribution would have to create three Coalition seats from two (Fadden and Moncrieff) in Queensland, while merging two Labor seats (Sydney and Lowe) in New South Wales – as well as giving the Coalition a stick with which to beat Labor for calling an election under such inopportune circumstances.
2,080 Comments
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With a ‘Born to Rule’ mentality like that it’s no wonder she didn’t win preselection! Hasn’t anyone told her that that attitude is more a Liberal party qualification than an ALP one? (NOTE: I said ‘more’ not sole
)
Tom.
vera,
I suppose a vegie garden would be a better use for it rather than posting it here on PB.
New Spiffy Toy – The Poll Cruncher
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/05/29/the-poll-cruncher/
Everything you could ever possibly want to find out about any poll, or the change between any two polls, all in one interactive package.
Even calculates proper margins or error for minor parties, as well as the margin or error of the change between two polls (which is different to a normal MoE).
http://www.smh.com.au/national/defence-cleared-of-spying-on-joel-fitzgibbon-20090529-bpqd.html
Possum
This tool is a gift to numpty’s like me everywhere.
Much appreciated!
Wait – that should be ‘numpties’ not ‘numpty’s’.
My mistake everyone. Don’t want to start another spelling lesson!
Shame there’s no QT on today – I’d love to see what Malcoprops and Sloppy Joe come up with next!
Yes vortex, no QT on Friday is a bad thing, I need my daily dose of humour from the Libs. I was PSML at Sloppy Joe with the scissors yesterday.
Are you sure he ain’t Hookey Joe ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hnswlc45p4
Geddit Hookey – Hockey
I saw a bit of senate estimates last nite. Not the bit where penny wong got stuck intp sen birmingham, must have been prior to the “run-in”.
I haven’t seen birminham in “action” before, but was struck by the arrogance he displayed. He really was conducting himself in the most appalling manner and as if his sh*t didn’t stink.
Cannot blame penny for putting him back in his place.
Anyone else see it ??
loved this bit:
the age but no apology yet
1943 Pegasus,
Same here in my house, hubby got it and I did not. My excess? $9 ……
Yes Dave 1960 – I watched it until Q&A started.
Arrogance is the right word for Birmingham and silliness for Mary Jo Fisher – I don’t know how the MDA bloke and Penny Wong could even bother to answer her sameness of question.
Was also disappointed with Xenophon. While I watched he seemed to spend his time laughing and smiling at and with Bill Heffernan who thought swearing was a great way to express himself.
pollies footy tips -
JB one out for West Coast
Men for Sydney, ladies for the Bulldogs
all in for Brisbane (not a one of them read the story this week about teams coming off of a 6 day break loosing 75% of the time and Brisbane being the ONLY interstate team travelling 2 weeks running to boot)
all in for St. Kilda
all in for Fremantle
all in for Hawthorn
all in for Geelong
JB one out for Port Adelaide
Psephas looks like you political career path was followed by several.
Fellow traveler “Piers Akerman”, who would have thought, no wonder your trying hard not to go further to the right.
http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=1110
I love Crikey.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/fitzgibbon-allegations-without-foundation-20090529-bpr4.html
Where is the apology from the Age and the other MSM that was lusting and saliving over the carcasses of Fitzy, Ms. Helen Liu and the Australia/China relationships. Shame, shame, shame.
A newspaper article based on pure fiction. How unusual.
Fredn 965: Only up to a point. I moved from from extreme and unrealistic leftism (which I now recognise to have arisen for mostly freudian reasons), to what I consider moderate and realistic leftism (ie, right-wing social democracy). That transition took about a decade. I did not suddenly “flip” from extreme left to extreme right. My political outlook has been fairly stable for the past 20 years and I feel no temptation to move any further to the right – in fact the horrors of the Bush-Howard era have pushed me back a bit to the left. And I don’t impugn the motives or sincerity of those who still hold the views that I held 35 years ago – I just think they’re misguided.
There’ll be no apologies, Finns. They will reiterate the stuff they got from their ’source’ as gospel.
Loved Crikey’s piece today on Ronaldson sending out press releases re Finance Estimates info about Kev & Swannie’s trips with Treasury officials and staff. Apparently he sent incorrect vitriol against the Govt. and then had to recall it and issue something a little more factual – if that is possible for Ronaldson.
I’m at a loss to know how they get away with it – Bishop saying that Howard never used a prop in Parliament is incorrect as well.
Juliem – don’t really like those tips. I want to put Ess. down for a win.
Juliem: My tipping record is atrocious, so I won’t put my hat in the ring, except that I’ll predict that the Western Bulldogs beat my Swans tomorrow.
Psephos – to my dying days whenever I am a bit toey about something Labor is doing I will only need to remember Howard (and yes, Bush) to pull me into line.
I disliked Howard almost on sight in the early 70s and I never took seriously Lib friends who said he was great at a party. They must have been drinking through rose colored glasses.
Yes, Howard has made the Libs unelectable for at least a decade.
What surprises me in one way, but definately not in another way, is how the Liberal Party’s policies are more or less the same under Turnbull. What ever happened to the progressive Turnbull Liberals? The Liberal Party is the same because the leader no longer controls the party – the party controls the leader – and the party is dominated by the hard right.
Turnbull is so desperate for the PM’s job because he thinks he will be the best thing that ever happened to Oz so he will do anything to keep the right side of the Libs backing him. What a cop out to his former policies.
bob1234
Its a tad more complcated for Turnbull. Remember he only gained the leadership by a couple of votes.
This was always going to be a problem – it would be for any leader of any party.
I am sure Turnbull would love to “pull the party into line” but to do so may also wreck it. If he can keep the party united (at least the public face) until the next election he will have done well.
When he loses the leadership after the next election, the coalition splits in two and they really do lose the plot, he will eventually be the messiah again. Then he will lead a united party sans the idiot fringe.
Keeping a party united after a long period in government ending in a heavy defeat is the hardest trick in politics. It was probably Beazley’s greatest achievement, though sadly he got no doughnut at the end. The Libs are terrible at it. We had Snedden v Fraser, Howard v Peacock, and now a complete free-for-all. After the 1993 Hewson loss people said the Libs couldn’t get themselves in a worse mess – well, now they have done. The Libs in 1993-96 were facing a decade-old government whose time was running out. Now they are up against a new and energetic government. They are in a very deep hole, with no credible leader, no new policies and no idea how to get back up. They also have an extraordinary amount of parliamentary deadwood – the old Howard potplants now dead in their pots.
The Coalition has 21 MHRs and Senators who will be 65 or over at the end of this Parliament, all of them backbenchers. Labor has two – Debus (a minister) and Price (the Chief Whip).
Yes but Nelson is finished now. Turnbull has a firm grip on the leadership with no alternatives for as long as Costello says he doesn’t want the job.
Yep, our ABC cover the Big Stories – this is their leading front page item – Play School concerts being held in Pub & Clubs.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/29/2584689.htm
Attacks on the Indian students is making big news over in India. It’s not looking. Perhaps, Sol was right afterall.
http://news.google.com/news/more?ned=in&topic=n&ncl=d9NH7PnU1X4El2MCkQjHAOx1sP8qM
Frank,
The Greens are all over this. It could be their finest moment in politics.
It’s not looking. = It’s not looking good.
Frank, I love the photo and caption in that article
All the evidence suggests these were disappointed with BN, not because he was a bad leader, but because he didn’t give them what they thought they deserved.
The delectable Sophie Mirabella springs to mind – a known Turnbull hater who choked on her spoonful of dry Milo in the party room when Howard hailed Turnbull’s preselection as a demonstration of democracy in action, who opposed him in the Republic convention, who had Brendan Nelson launch her last campaign.
Under Nelson, she was Shadow Parl Sec for Local Govt, under Turnbull she is a Shadow Minister.
Join the dots.
If MT is indebted to extreme righters like this, he has NO room to move at all.
There are 4 or 5 people, a least, who have leadership aspirations in the Libs. The “half” who did not vote for Turnbull have not really changed tune, they do not want him.
The wets and drys still exist, but neither has a majority. The floaters with no real ideology want someone to grab them by the goolies and tell them what to believe.
Costello is younger than Turnbull, he knows the train wreck is coming and is positioning himself to emerge with superficial wounds.
But can anyone prevent the Coalition Split of 2011?
It looks like Labor is using the ETS compensation package as a way to pressure Turnbull. I received an email that included this link:
http://www.alp.org.au/media/0509/msccwfcstres290.php
Coalition Split of 2011??? Rua what are you on about now?
ru,
It’ll be like Mel Gibson’s divorce. They’ve been living separate lives for years and it will only take one chuck knuckle display of disrespect for the whole facade to fall over.
It’s always perilous to predict the future because a great percentage of predicitons do not come to fruition.
However I hope RU is right!
Don’t kid yourself Glen. They split yesterday, they’ve split today, they’ll split tomorrow. Your side is an absolute rabble.
They would prefer it to be held in a Hippie Commune with dope being smoked by the parents.
Though I wonder if this is all a result of Howard failing to provide the funding for an appropriate venue in these towns so that the ABC wouldn’t have to rely on the types of venues being criticised – oh btw The Wiggles perform in Perth at the Burswood Dome, which is part of the Burswood Casino complex (though the two venues are seperated a bit by distance.
They don’t have a huge age difference, I doubt Costello could run some “generational change” campaign against Turnbull.
We know what the Liberal message will be at the last election “Let’s pretend it is 2007 again when the Australian and world economies were growing.” If they run such a retro-campaign, I don’t think it matters who is leader, both Costello and Turnbull are tarnished by the latter years of the Howard government.
What is the likelihood of the government implementing any of these measures, in the short term, or long term?
Costello, having spent 11.5 years under Howard, and some years before that in Opposition, is never going to look “young”. He’s always going to look like a member of the old Howard government.
What the hell Jacinta Collins complained just cos she couldn’t get a ComCar? Why couldn’t she just use a taxi?
And Turnbull will be remembered as the guy who didn’t do anything about climate change because Howard wouldn’t let him.
Shows, he’s probably going to also look like the guy who didn’t do anything about climate change because “his” coalition wouldn’t let him.
Replace Turnbull with Howard, climate change with economic modernisation, and Howard with Fraser, and it means zip in regards to your chances of becoming PM.
Howard will be remembered as the treasurer who had double digit inflation, interest rates and unemployment – yet he survived to be PM for over a decade.
The Coalition has to split, the Nats will go their own way and take some Libs with them – McGauran for instance. Why have a coalition in opposition?
The way X and Barnaby have been so chummy recently who knows X could be the Senate Leader when BoH moves to the lower house.
By political diehards like us. The average person doesn’t remember what Howard did ro didn’t do as treasurer, it’s too long ago.
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