Breaking news: Newspoll has Labor’s lead down from 56-44 to 55-45. Since you all know about it by now, a link will suffice (although I will observe that Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings seem to have bottomed out). Here’s a first: Essential Research has the same result as Newspoll, with Labor’s lead plunging from 59-41 to 55-45. Further questions focus on the parties’ capacity to handle various issues, emissions trading schemes and climate change, and perceptions of politicians’ honesty (better than you might think).
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 55-45
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2,843 Comments
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GG
The questions aren’t on Hansard there. Does the Opposition have to send the questions they propose asking the Minister before they ask them? That would mean they are coming up later.
Oh dear, Barnett’s guaranteed surplus takes another hit.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/05/2590714.htm?section=justin
Are you kidding, Fieldin’s glasses are awesome. I want a pair.
Possum,
Check their tables. You don’t want to accuse them of not knowing if their backsides are on fire, do you?
Diogenes, there’s no database exclusively for questions without notice (I think).
You can search for Questions on notice here:
http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/web/common.nsf/V3SearchSite?open&area=Papers&house=la&paper=question
Like Bill Poster, Judas was innocent. he was a great kisser.
Diogs,
“Questions without notice” sort of implies they ask without notice.
Greeny, I’ve just given up even trying to bother.
Nothing on that site makes an ounce of sense.
Possum,
How you going to treat it in Pollytrend?
Since there is a new Morgan poll, a new thread should come soon to replace this rather short one.
Greeny, I’ll have to replace the last one with the 900+ sample with the results of this one. It wont make a toss of difference though in the end.The results are of the new poll are similar to the old one, and it was a whole polling cycle ago.
Oh dear. You are a bothersome little marsupial, aren’t you.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25590287-5013016,00.html
And this!
I know scorpio – what’s a bloke have to do to get a damn steak!
Speaking of which, half the Norman Hotel burnt down this arvo in Bris. One less place to get a good feed of protein.
I thought it was “Eats, roots, shoots and leaves”.
Is Gary Morgan *trying* to destroy his own reputation as a pollster, or what? Still, I’ll take 58-42 no matter how it was arrived at.
Should get them for the Mardi Gras.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25586279-5012895,00.html
GG
So most of the questions are given to them beforehand then. These ones must be upcoming.
Psephos
Do you think the retirement of Carlo Carli at the Next state election will make Brunswick easier to win for the Greens?
For some reason it took me a while to figure out South Brisbane is Bligh’s branch.
That’s hilarious.
An interested Rudd ute-gate point that the Rabble have missed. St Kev is allowed to have a car for his electorate, if he does not have a car he is entitled to the $19,000 allowance and this could be added to his salary.
Rudd does not claim this allowance – hence he is saving the taxpayer money.
I wonder if the refusal of the Rudd Recession to make an appearance won’t actually improve the polls for Labor, but instead lift their potential floor?
So rather than have the ALP mid-term polling float around between 54 and 60 for an ultimate election result of 53 to 54, whether instead (and assuming a recession is averted for the rest of year) that ultimate result sticks a few economic voters onto Labor for a floor of 54-55?
Tom it depends on the candidate. As I understand it there’s a popular local mayor down there but he’s from the minority right faction (at least in that part of the Labor party) who’d do a good job of getting the tradional Labor/left vote and the Italian and more conservative bits that Carlo managed to picked up.
The left faction candidates are generally hacks who probably feel as though the seat is owed too them.
If I was Labor I’d go with the mayor. Otherwise they risk seeing how much of the vote was personal support for Carlo.
Was wondering that myself, Possum.
Seriously, I woke up this morning and thought “Hmm, I wonder how the lack of a ‘technical’ recession will effect Labor’s potential floor?”.
Seriously.
It’s amazing how a single address can be interpreted so differently by two different media sources. Pity the poor punters out here in voterland. What do you believe.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25588897-664,00.html
http://www.current.com.au/2009/06/05/article/IFCVCAAHAQ.html
Nurse! Nurse!
No. Although Brunswick has suffered some incursions of performance artists, aroma therapists and cultural theory lecturers, it’s still basically an ethnic and working class area, and as such safe for Labor. If they’ll vote for Carlo, they’ll vote for whomever else Labor can come up with.
And Minack….
It’s a recession, despite GDP ‘surprise’
By Gerard Minack
The 0.4% improvement in March quarter GDP changes very little. In particular, it doesn’t change the fact that on any sensible definition Australia is in recession. Nor, more to the point, does it change my view that things will get worse.
The surprise was due to the Australian Bureau of Statistics changing the way it tracks bulk commodity prices. Usually the bureau waits for the major contracts to be settled, and factors in the price changes in the June quarter (because the contract prices are set from April 1). This week it announced that it was actually factoring in lower prices in the March quarter. Factoring in a lower price implied a higher volume for exports, which lifted GDP. Consequently, net exports added 1.4 percentage points to growth in the quarter.
Forget this statistical jiggery-pokery: the key numbers to focus on are national income and domestic demand. Australia’s boom was not a GDP boom, it was a national income and domestic demand boom. The latest GDP figures confirm that the boom is busting. Gross national spending fell by 1.0% in the March quarter, following a 1.3% fall in the December quarter. Real gross domestic income fell by 1.2% in both quarters.
These are the variables that drive domestic profits, employment and the Reserve Bank. The weakness points to further job losses. Continuing increases in unemployment will keep the pressure on the Reserve Bank to keep cutting rates. I still think that the cash rate target will be lowered to 2%.
A couple of follow-on points
First, the most important thing about exports is total receipts. It doesn’t really matter whether it is prices or volumes that are driving the aggregate. This week’s report confirmed that the global bust is finally having an impact. Last year, despite the “great recession”, Australia’s mining exports kept booming:
Second, the recession is starting to affect consumers. Last year it was a painless recession: household income boomed, seeing the fastest rise since 1974. Now, real incomes are starting to feel the pinch. That income strength underpinned better consumer spending in the March quarter, but I doubt that spending will sustained its early-2009 momentum for much longer.
Finally, as I keep reminding clients, I will be wrong unless I see significant job losses. This weeks data is consistent with job losses to come.
Sounds remarkably like another election recently in WA.
Carli won by about 4% last time over the Greens (who finsihed second). If anything, Labor’s vote has probably increased. Provided Labor has a good local candidate, the Greens have no chance.
Dave – in a rare even, the ABS responded to Minack and complete pwnd him.
http://bit.ly/nd11a
Carli isn’t resigning, he’s retiring at the next election, so there’s no comparison with Fremantle. If we were talking about a Brunswick by-election that might be a different matter, although the Greens made a mess of their golden opportunity at the Albert Park by-election in 2007.
It’s like the Australian Cricket Side earlier this century. You get through the batsman and have a Gilchrist come in at 7. The Libs are going to regret this!
“Mr Rudd joked the new Defence Minister was already being referred to as “Field Marshal Faulkner” and was well qualified for the job and well respected in the defence community”.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/john-faulkner-replaces-joel-fitzgibbon-as-defence-minister-20090605-by2n.html
GG, quite so. If the Russell Hill Colonel Blimps didn’t like Fitzgibbon, they will soon detest Faulkner. He’s much nastier and ten times as smart.
Definitely not putting it in The Greens column but there’s some points to be made, and Greensborough Growler and Adam are definitely not going to mention them.
The margin was 3.7% at the last election.
Average of the last 3 Newspolls has The Greens on a statewide 4.3% swing compared to the election results. The same period for Labor has a swing against them, but that includes a probable outlier. Without that it’s a 2% swing to them.
And it’s very unlikely that any potential candidate would have a high personal vote, except possibly Lambros (the mayor) but that’s not guaranteed.
So calls like “The Greens have no chance” are more fantasy than anything else.
2636
Here here! I was handing out HTVs for Dave that day (as I had the previous two elections) plus I had the enjoyment of a tracky dack clad Jackie Kelly visiting the booth I was on. She was bringing some more Lib posters for display. So I asked her “were they appropriately authorised” (unlike her husband’s ‘Allar Akba’ fliers). She swore at me and moved on. Sweet.
I think the only comparison made was between two local mayors of Italian origin who weren’t best friends with the local Labor branch.
vortex,
Great story.
Crikey earlier in the week published the following on the non-arrival of THE RUDD RECESSION (sic):
[It’s only one number, and subject to future revision. But with more stimulus to roll out into the economy via the extension of the home owners’ grant, the infrastructure component of the second stimulus package, the big-ticket infrastructure projects announced in the budget and what’s left of the RBA’s rate cut drop, the chances of future negative growth appear slim, although another external shock could confound everyone’s hopes.]
Question without notice.
We all know there has never been a female PM (we’re not counting acting).
I can’t think of a female Defence Minister, Treasurer or Foreign Minister either. Have I forgotten someone or are women on the outer in those jobs?
And the lack of a Liberal Candidate in one particular case – thus resulting in the Liberal vote on masse going to the Greens Candidate.
Ah, Adam. Albert Park. Just like Labor made a mess of their magnificent opportunity to win Mayo in 2008.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Greens go in Brunswick, but I’m sceptical. As much as they had no chance of winning the seats, the campaigns in Williamstown and Albert Park were not what you might call brilliant, they blew the Senate campaign, and the Greens MPs in Victoria haven’t been exactly spectacular.
I think it’ll get closer, but it certainly won’t be this time.
If you’re talking about Mayor Tapinos, he’s Greek.
Given that’s only in “one particular case” I’m not sure how it’s a comparison.
Frank, keep dreaming, mate.
News flash: we do not have a first-past-the-post electoral system.
If the Liberals run a candidate in Fremantle, Carles will get their preferences, and she will win.
There you go, my bad.
Here’s a bit of a run down on Brunswick via Landeryou for anyone interested in the entrails.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/4579/lefties-at-war-carlos-departure-sets-the-stage-for-an-epic-battle/
No 2686
Goodness me, I was handing out HTVs in Lindsay as well, except not for Labor.
The only funny part of the miserable (and bloody hot) day was when Chas Licciardello from the Chaser showed up at my booth, dressed as Osama Bin Laden, to hand out fake pamphlets to Karen Chijoff.
Ute Man
lol
Fitzgibbon will have to get a Keating’s dog so he can have someone around him he can trust.
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