The Poll Bludger is still in Summer Edition mode, so pardon me for being less than timely with the news that Roy Morgan attached a question on voting intention to its recent 715-sample phone survey on consumer confidence, which had Labor leading 57.5-42.5. Something like normal service will resume as of tomorrow night’s Newspoll. Other news:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “branches in the Sutherland Shire seat of Cook are being furiously stacked in what moderates say is an attempt to ward off a potential challenge by the far right to the sitting Liberal member, Scott Morrison”. However, Right sources deny any such plan and instead argue the stacking is being conducted in pursuit of the moderates’ own designs against Morrison. Central to the ongoing dispute is Michael Towke, whose preselection win upon the retirement of Bruce Baird at the 2007 election was overturned by the party’s state executive following reports of branch-stacking activities and extravagant claims made in his CV. The seat instead went to the well-connected but factionally unaligned Morrison, who went on to suffer humiliation at the hands of the local Right-controlled branches which refused his membership application a few months after he entered parliament. Talk of ongoing Right designs on the seat received further impetus when Towke secured the position of Cook electoral council secretary. Coorey reports there are rumours afoot that the Right will seek to have state upper house MP Marie Ficarra depose Morrison, making her own position available to Towke – although this was “laughed off” by a “senior Right source”.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Labor national executive has given Kevin Rudd and the five-member national executive committee (Anthony Albanese, Mark Arbib, Mark Butler, Bill Shorten and Bill Ludwig) extensive powers over federal preselections. State branches will not be able to start preselection processes without the permission of the committee, which will further have the power to replace sitting members – significantly including Belinda Neal, the troubled member for Robertson.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Victorian Liberal leader Ted Baillieu, director Tony Nutt and president David Kemp have moved without reference to the party’s administration committee to truncate the preselection process for next year’s state election from eight weeks to four. Baillieu opponents say this is a move to shore up the position of his backers Andrew McIntosh (Kew), Helen Shardey (Caulfield) and Kim Wells (Scoresby). Landeryou also relates rumours about the possible departure of Liberal deputy leader Louise Asher, the member for Brighton.
• Liberal Party members in the Victorian federal seat of Corangamite, which the party lost in 2007, will today vote for a candidate at the next election. The front-runners are said to be Sarah Henderson, former 7:30 Report host and daughter of the late former Geelong state MP Ann Henderson, and Rod Nockles, internet security expert and former Howard government adviser. Others who have been mentioned at various stages include Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, more recently mentioned in relation to Wannon; former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Corangamite electorate council; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, owner of Kings Australia funeral services. (UPDATE: Sarah Henderson wins. See Andrew Landeryou and his comments thread for much confusion over who backed whom.)
• There was renewed talk this week that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden could be moving to the lower house. It was initially suggested he would take the seat of Keilor, expected to be forcibly vacated by controversial Right faction numbers man George Seitz. However, Madden has ruled this out, saying it would not be a good look for him to take the seat given the role of his staffer Hakki Suleyman in the Brimbank City Council controversies which are set to initiate Seitz’s departure. Madden said he did not want, but would not rule out, taking the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon. Prior to the 2006 election, it was planned that Madden would be accommodated in Bundoora due to the reduction in the size of the Legislative Council, but a rearrangement following Mary Delahunty’s departure from Northcote saw him stay put.
• The New South Wales Nationals’ annual state conference has resolved to proceed with an exciting plan in which a candidate in a yet-to-be-determined state electorate will be chosen by an American-style open primary, in which all voters in the electorate will be able to participate.
879 Comments
Is there any truth in the rumour that the Greens are sponsoring the re-make of The Greenacres?
Starring Christine Milne as Eva Garbor and Bob Brown to complete the odd couple.
Fielding linking his religious anti-science views to being an engineering again…
Engineers across Australia jump off the roof.
The Nationals tried something similar in the seat of Farrer after Tim Fischer’s retirement, where they held a series of community forums across the electorate before voting on the candidate.
The media breathlessly reported on it at the time as a powerful process which would ensure that the candidate selected had broad community appeal and support.
Of course, in the end, only voters interested in who the Nationals candidate might be turned up (i.e. the candidates and their close personal friends) and the final vote was left to National party members, who (predictably) elected someone exactly like themselves and chose a candidate OLDER than the retiring Fischer who was soundly trounced at the election by the middle aged woman preselected through the Liberal party’s far more restrictive process.
The point with the American primaries is that they’re electing a President, not a local member. Even then, it takes a huge effort by candidates to get people to turn out and vote and they spend millions making that happen. In the end, it’s still largely the party faithful who rock up.
Here is a link to an article by Juan Cole at Informed Comment stating that the Iranian election was solen. He explains how their system works, and some irregularities in the official results that give good reason to believe his claim. Mousavi’s results in Tabriz are implausibly low.
http://www.juancole.com/
Oz
I’m at the point where I don’t really want to hear what Fielding said most recently, athough fortunately I haven’t seen any reports yet. I think its getting to the point though where Engineers Australia needs to say something to distance the profession from Fielding and his claims.
To fight Fielding with facts, here is an excerpt from Engineers Australia’s official CC policy:
“Engineers Australia believes that Australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with
global expectations to address climate change as an economic, social and environmental
risk. Our role has been, and will continue to be, in leading capacity building to innovate for
more sustainable, eco-efficient and less polluting outcomes in engineering practice. We
believe that addressing the costs of atmospheric emissions will lead to increasing our
competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating new economic opportunities.
Engineers Australia:
- Supports the Australian Government’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol and supports
the formulation of a further international agreement.
- Strongly encourages the direction of energy policy reform, recognising that there is
some way to go before achieving the stated policy objectives of: providing efficient,
reliable and competitively priced energy; responsibly developing Australia’s energy
resources, technology and expertise; and mitigating environmental impacts of energy
production, transformation, supply and use.
- Strongly encourages actions to address the on-going growth in energy demand. It is
essential that the rate of growth is minimised, if not reversed, and clearly linked to
improvements in efficiency and demand management.
- Agrees with the position taken by the Stern Review that climate change is an
economic, social and environmental problem.
- Believes that it is in Australia’s interests to move quickly to limit greenhouse gases.”
The full policy is here:
http://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/representation/policy-statements/policy-statements_home.cfm
I doubt Fielding is a Member of Engineer Australia? If he was I wonder if action could be taken for breaching the Code of Ethics?
I can guarantee you Engineers Australia won’t make a public statement on its own accord. You, and all other sensible engineers should drop them a line.
I can see the media picking it up, even if it’s ironically.
I don’t think anything in membership binds all members to every facet of Engineers Australia’s policy.
It’s not the Labor Party!
Or the Greens, who seem to vote as a block.
An interesting challenge, this. A sentence with a parenthetical clause in the middle must be grammatical if the clause is removed. “Madden said he did not want taking the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon” is not grammatical. It should be “Madden said he did not want to take the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon.” But the sentence must also grammatical and logical with the parenthetical clause included, and “Madden said he did not want, but would not rule out, to take the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon” is neither. The problem is that there is no form of the verb “to take” that can grammatically follow both “did not want” and “would not rule out”, so the sentence must be restructured. “Madden said he did not want to take the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon, but would not rule it out” would do the job. Moral: parenthetical clauses are tricky and should be avoided.
Not bound to policy but i’m pretty sure members need to agree to the code of ethics. Correct on number 7.
“Tenet 3. Members shall act only in areas of their competence
and in a careful and diligent manner;”
Ok let’s start a campaign for Fielding to get thrown out of Engineers Australia. Or if he’s not a member, a public repudiation, so everyone knows he’s talking crap when he says “Being an engineer…”.
Oz
This is from Engineers Australia Code of Ethics titled “Public Cometn or Statements”, page 7:
“Members should display restraint in the manner in which they comment on engineering matters, especially in circumstances where the member, by explicit reference or implication, gives the public reason to believe that their comments are made on the basis of relevant knowledge.”
Fielding is commenting as a politician which is clearly his primary job. And we should welcome dissent from any organisations policy, not discouraging it. Engineers Australia could publicly disagree with Fielding but he is entitled to his opinion.
Sell out. Why ruin our witch hunt.
More Costello watching in the Melbourne Age. The most interesting quote being:
“For now, Costello is keeping his powder dry. Judging by the problems looming for the Coalition, this could prove the most most sensible strategy, assuming he is acting in self-interest.
As one veteran puts it: “The party has almost no money, it has no research, it has almost no federal staff. Labor would have 100 political campaign staff around the country. We’ve got about 10. Our campaign infrastructure has just basically disintegrated and we’ve lost some seriously experienced people. The loss of corporate knowledge has been huge.”
Hardly a tempting prospect, fighting an election that could come as early as March with almost no money, few policies, little research, few campaign staff and little chance of winning.”
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/ghost-in-the-machine-20090613-c6on.html?page=-1
GG
Why would they need researchers? The sheer intellectual firepower on the opposition front bench should be ample to come up with their own new ideas and policies. Plus, being down-to-earth middle class types, they will already know exactly how conditions are for the man on the street
Seriously though, I am not surprised about the loss of people. After the Qld state result I heard one of their senior campaign staff left despite to me running a fairly good campaign right up to the part of the final debate where Springborg simply couldn’t state how he woudl fix the debt. It wasn’t the staffers’ fault they had the wrong candidate. That sort of scapegoating won’t encourage anyone with a brain to work for them.
and this:
a relaunch! hopefully this will be out before christmas.
There is a poll in the South Australian Sunday Mail this morning trying to drum up the “independents threatening safe labor seats”, doing polls for State Seats of Port Adelaide (Treasurer Foley) and Cheltenham (Minister Weatherill). Both more or less failed to do so..
In the true spirit of advertiser/sunday mail polling they failed to provide the sample size and did not exclude the informal/refused or unsure’s from the primary vote totals. Nor is it available online and it contains some horrible push polling!
Cheltenham | calculated percent | 2006
ALP 53.0 58.2 62.7
LP 19.0 20.9 17
GRN 7.0 7.7 6
DEM 2.0 2.2 4.4
FF 5.0 5.5 9.9
Ind 5.0 5.5 0
informal 1.0
91.0
2PP
ALP 70 (75.3 2006)
LP 30 (24.7 2006)
Port Adelaide
Published | Real | 2006
ALP 51 56.0 63.6
LP 22 24.2 18.7
GRN 5 5.5 6.6
DEM 2 2.2 0
FF 4 4.4 5.7
Ind 7 7.7 1.8 (one nation)
informal 1
91
Two Party
ALP 67 (75.7)
LP 33 (24.3)
Part two coming (with the push poll questions!)
Libs are broke in SA too!
THE Liberals need to raise $2 million to fight the next election – and that’s just to give Opposition Leader Martin Hamilton-Smith “an even-money chance”.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25628053-2682,00.html?from=public_rss
GG
They would be better off spending the money finding a new candidate. I don’t think Rann has been a great premier (though Conlon and Foley have done good jobs) but what chance has MHS got? He has come up with one grandiose scheme after another and even the Advertiser has grown reluctant to give him unlimited support. Maybe they shoudl run a “Pauline Hanson” type campaign and bank the savings
3
The Americans hold primaries for the candidates for the major parties for most elected offices. The president is the only one that gets real international coverage.
He’s entitled to his opinion, but if he is using his status as an ‘engineer’ and is an EA member (I would sincerely hope not) then he has breached their code of ethics and should be called on it
Alrighty each poll had 4 questions, one of them was just the “how likely are you to change your vote before the next election”
Doesn’t really say anything useful, but I was wondering if someone would be able to use the numbers to calculate the sample sizes used in the polls by working out the only valid combination for the minor parties.
Cheltenham ALP LP DEM GRN FF
Ver Likely 04% 05% 00% 10% 04%
Qui Likely 13% 16% 10% 09% 28%
Not Likely 82% 75% 90% 81% 53%
dontknow 01% 04% 00% 00% 15%
Ie logically the Democrats had 20 votes, 2 and 18 making a sample size of 400?
Pt Adelaide ALP LP DEM GRN FF
Ver Likely 02% 09% 25% 00% 04%
Qui Likely 13% 08% 15% 45% 28%
Not Likely 83% 81% 60% 55% 53%
dontknow 02% 02% 00% 00% 00%
Anyone wanna prove there maths ability?
Socrates,
Yes, policy development and research for the Libs has always been regarded like an ashtray on a motor bike.
The Liberals don’t do “losing campaigns” very well. Unfortunately, it is the only thing they do well at the moment.
Even if he’s not a member EA should restate their position on climate change. He’s got a national platform for espousing his crackpot views and linking them with the profession of engineering.
If he was a doctor and was jumping up and down shouting about some hokey medicine and getting headlines, I doubt the AMA would sit there quietly, nor would you expect them too.
Fielding is irrelevant. Turnbull is the target. The CPRS bill will not pass unless Turnbull backs down, and that’s where pressure needs to be applied. Soon we will discover whether Hunt and his fellow moderates have any gumption.
Ok onto the push polling!
First to the epic fail.
Question was asked to respondents that indicated they voted ALP in 2006.
Port Adelaide
“Will the state government’s handling of the Diver Derrick Bridge cause you to vote for or against sitting member Kevin Foley or won’t it effect your vote at the next state election”
Vote against Foley…. 3%!!!
Wont affact my vote 91%
Vote for Foley 4%
Don’t know 2%
Yeah not seeing a indie running on that are we…
Cheltenham
“Will the sale of the Cheltenham Park Racecourse cause you to vote for or against sitting member Jay Weatherill or wont it affect your vote at the next state election.
Vote Against Weatherill – 15%
Wont affect my vote – 73
Vote for Weatherill – 6%
Dont know – 6%
I think the mail were looking for a much bigger number than that, still not the epic push polling fail that the Foley question was.
24
That poll has Not likely for both Labor and Liberal for a minimum of 57% of Cheltenham and a minimum of 64% for Port Adelaide. I would think that this is unlikely to be the reality.
The point with the American primaries is that they’re electing a President, not a local member. Even then, it takes a huge effort by candidates to get people to turn out and vote and they spend millions making that happen. In the end, it’s still largely the party faithful who rock up.
I’m not sure where this idea came from, but candidates for just about all US offices are selected by primary – house, senate and president among them.
It’s also pretty far from the truth to suggest that it’s the party faithful who vote. In the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary, held this week, turnout dropped immensely from the last presidential primary – and there were still about 300,000 people voting. Primaries done properly generally make sure you get the most electable candidate. Having a few old fogies at a community forum select a candidate isn’t even a primary at all.
GG – won’t Malcolm just pay for the election himself?
Perhaps Cossie could throw in some of the lovely lucre he is making from his books. lol.
29: Dont follow you; I’m reading not likely’s of 82 % 75 for chelt and 83 and 81 for Port.
vote1
There’s a renegade radiologist, Dr Sebben, who works at the QEH and he’s always threatening to run against whoever is the member for the QEH area (I think it’s Foley). He could get quite a few votes from the “save the QEH” bandwagon. For some reason, the people out there love that dump. Personally, I think it should have been bulldozed ages ago.
BH,
You sometimes wonder that if Costello and Turnbull did a “dodgy” donation plea a la Brown whether the punters would choose to let the Libs die.
“Attack of the Renegade Radiologist” – who would play the radiologist? Who would play the heroic Rannman, who stops the evil Renegade Radiologist armed only with a fishfork and a media release?
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,25631650-948,00.html
Party line, Frank?
Probably most of the punters would, GG – the diehards would still throw in the cash.
I hope Joe Ludwig reintroduces the bill re declaring donations openly above $1,000. I’ve always thought we need to know exactly where the money comes from for all pollies.
William’s piece above re Scott Morrison is interesting – I thought Morrison was always part of the religious right. Am I getting him mixed up with someone else who is already in Canberra.
Morrison is a *relative* moderate. He’s well to the right of Bruce Baird, but he’s not nearly rightwing enough for the nutters now running the NSW Libs. The far right are also linked to the Lebanese (Christian) mafia which provides their branch-stacking fodder. That’s how a shonk like Towke got pre-selected in 2007, even though everyone knew he would probably be de-selected, and that he’d lose the seat if he ran.
Psephos – do you care to comment on whether you think they will ‘do’ Morrison?
Where do I get the link for this morning’s interview – Oakes and Gillard please
I have no personal knowledge of this, but I doubt they will succeed in rolling him (although they did roll Stephen Mutch after one term in this seat in 1998). If they do roll Morrison it will be a sure sign that the loonies and crooks have taken over the NSW Libs – which is the one thing that might save NSW Labor.
Quiz question: Which country elected a Trotskyist to the European Parliament at the recent election?
Probably the UK
BH,
Try this one. They are pretty slow though. It may not be up for days.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/oakes
How do you prove otherwise (36) Oz?
I presume there’ll be no more mentions of pork barreling Coalition seats prior to the last election then.
42
No the UK was not electing people other than the Tories, UKIP, Labour, the LibDems, The Greens, the BNP, the SNP, Plaid, Sinn Féin, the UUP and the DUP.
Thanks Scorpio – will try later today to give them time to put it up.
Psephos,
Ireland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Party_(Ireland)
Tssk, tssk…shouldn’t make comments about American politics, which interests me hardly at all* and thus occupies only a few of my brain cells. Apologies for talking a load of twaddle.
What I said about Farrer is true, however, and it didn’t work the way it was supposed to.
* I know it should, but it doesn’t. Although I am reading Hillary’s autobiography at the moment.
Oz is pissed off because it was confiscated drug money being spent in Labor electorates. Given the source, it should have gone to Green electorates.
I’ll pay that.
50
The Greens are not big on organised crime. The vast majority of this money would have been seized from rich organised criminals. The Greens policies however would be best at undermining this wing of organised crime.
# 36:
That behaviour typifies that appalling party. The ALP, rotten to the bone and hell bent on obtaining power at any cost. Truely sickening.
Even I think that’s one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever read on PB. You’re always going to get abuses of power in the interests of staying in power. It hardly typifies most conduct by Labor, or Liberal for that matter. Hypocrisy definitely.
What is so special being an “Engineer”?
It’s just like saying i am a doctor, historian, politician, investment banker, car salesman, prophet, god etc.
Just give a human being anytime.
Where’s the hypocrisy? The fact that you’re excusing that sort of behaviour speaks volumes.
Dio the sad thing is all parties resort to factionalism…
If there is one thing I dislike about politics it is factionalism because it brings out the worst in people and causes among other things branch stacking which occurs on both sides of politics.
Factions are stupid, you’re on the same side but you’re not how stupid is that!
Re: Iran elections
- I hate to say I told you so
I think we should elicit donations from the public, by spuriously claiming abject poverty, to keep Green members in their electorates.
Oh wait, we’ve just done that.
Yes, Glen, I can’t believe how many Labor supporters have been on this site claiming their mate Ahmadinejad was going to win fair and square …
As an engineer myself, it should give you enough of an education to realise that you aren’t an expert on climate change
I think the first joke I ever heard at university was “Last year I couldn’t even spell injuneer and now I are one.”
Didn’t you ever watch Casey Jones? You get to pull the chain and go “toot toot!”
Patrick
The hypocrisy is the Labor supporters who complained about the Regional Rorts program who are silent now.
I’m not excusing the behaviour, I’m saying that it doesn’t mean everything Labor or Liberals do is tarnished by this example.
Fielding WAS having a blinder on Insiders this morning. It’s true, that if the amount of carbon emitted into the atmosphere has increased over the last decade, yet in that time the planet has cooled, it is reasonable to conclude that carbon is not the cause of global warming. In fact it may be argued that the planet is not warming at all. A decade is a long enough period in any trend.
However, before you CC proponents start to go ballistic, Fielding did contradict himself when he admitted that GW was happening but carbon emissions may not be the cause.
Glen
I was holding out a little flame of hope for Moussavi but it’s been well and truly extinguished. The riots have started. The phrase “Tiamanmen Square” has been mentioned.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
Well, I won’t go ballistic, but basically that’s a load of tosh
Ooop, forget to mention, i am an Engineer myself, the flying kind.
Centre
Here’s a nice 8 minute youtube showing that the ‘global warming stopped ten years ago’ argument is a crock.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y15UGhhRd6M&feature=channel_page
Dio even when the ‘reformist’ Khatami won he wasnt a reformer whatsoever…
The real power lies with the Mullahs…very sad for Iran.
This “global cooling” crap makes me so angry I could do someone a serious violence if I wasn’t such a mild-mannered person.
Warming trend has not been reversed
David Karoly
April 29, 2008
The Australian
THE opinion piece by Phil Chapman (”Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh”, Opinion, April 22) warns of an approaching ice age but contains a number of factual errors, misleading statements and incorrect conclusions.
Chapman reports global average temperature cooled by 0.7C in 2007 and says: “If the temperature does not soon recover, we will have to conclude that global warming is over.”
It is true that global data sets show a pronounced cooling from January2007 to January 2008 of slightly less than 0.7C. It is an error to state, as Chapman does, that this is unprecedented, as similar dramatic falls occurred from 1998 to 1999, and from 1973 to 1974. It should also be noted that the global average temperature has warmed substantially, by about 0.3C from January 2008 to March 2008. In addition, the annual average temperature for 2007 was within 0.1C of the average temperature in 2006 and 2005; no dramatic cooling there.
So what caused this rapid cooling during 2007, and also from 1998 to 1999, and from 1973 to 1974? What was common to all those periods? In each case, the common factor was a rapid change from El Nino to La Nina conditions, from warm temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to cold temperatures in the same region, which has a significant effect on global climate patterns and global average temperature. La Nina is associated with below-normal global average temperature, and because of its influence, 2008 is likely to be about 0.3C cooler than the average of the previous few years.
Chapman did not consider La Nina as a cause of the cooling in 2007 and instead linked it to the minimum in the 11-year cycle in sunspot numbers: “The first sunspot appeared in January this year and lasted only two days. A tiny spot appeared last Monday but vanished within 24 hours. Another little spot appeared this Monday.”
I don’t know where these sunspot numbers came from but they are in error. The best source of data for present sunspot numbers is the World Data Centre for Solar Terrestrial Physics at the National Geophysical Data Centre in Boulder, Colorado. According to it, the average number of sunspots a day last January was 3.4, followed by 2.1 in February and 9.3 in March. The minimum was in October2007.
So, are variations in global average temperature directly related to sunspot numbers on a monthly, annual or decadal timescale?
Certainly not on a monthly timescale and the effect, if any, on a year-to-year timescale is very small, as can be found by correlating the variations of global average temperature on monthly or annual timescales with the sunspot numbers. Any relationship between sunspot numbers and global average temperatures is much, much smaller than the clear relationship between inter-annual variations of equatorial Pacific Sea surface temperatures and global average temperatures, showing the effect of the El Nino-La Nina cycle.
While those errors are bad enough, the main flaw in Chapman’s opinion is trying to infer long-term climate trends from short-term (one year) variations of global temperature. It is well known (among climate scientists) that there are large inter-annual variations of global temperature caused by a number of factors, including El Nino, big volcanic eruptions, or just the chaotic variability of the climate system. It is not possible to make conclusions about long-term climate trends from inter-annual climate variations. Many lines of evidence support the conclusion reached last year by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal”, referring to changes over the past 100 years. Even when we consider only the global average temperature during La Nina episodes, such as the present cool period, we find that we are experiencing the warmest global temperature of any strong La Nina episode in the past 100 years, again showing clear long-term global warming.
Most of the increase in global average temperature over the past 50 years is due to the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This long-term increase in global average temperature will continue throughout the 21st century because of further increases in greenhouse gases. Yes, there will be year-to-year natural climate variations, with some colder years, but the long-term warming trend will continue.
An ice age is definitely not going to occur in the 21st century. Instead, we will all need to make very large reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases if we are to minimise dangerous anthropogenic climate change.
David Karoly is a professor in the University of Melbourne’s school of earth sciences and a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists.
Diog, is there any other kind to you?
On the subject of Essendon, I think that it is a future target for the Greens to overtake the Libs and fight Labor. I think that it has a large middle class left vote that is winnable by the Greens at some point in the future.
Send it off to Fielding, Diogs @ 68 & 69
It’s only “reasonable” if you have absolutely no understanding of science.
Depends what kind of engineer. Mechanical, civil and aeronautical engineers probably don’t know much about climate change, but environmental engineers do a fair amount of environmental science including atmospheric chemistry and the dynamics relating to the environment.
On that note, anyone know what kind of engineer Fielding is?
From his website:
After finishing high school, Steve did a Bachelor of Engineering degree at RMIT University which he completed in 1983. He then started work at Hewlett Packard where he met Susan, who also worked there.
Steve later moved into management and executive roles with NEC and Siemens, and completed a Masters of Business Administration (MBA) at Monash University in 1992.
Later that year Steve and his family moved to Wellington in New Zealand where he took up an executive role with Telecom NZ. They returned to Australia in 1995. Steve worked with United Energy and then Yellow Pages. For the last five years, he has been with one of Victoria’s largest superannuation funds, Vision Super (formerly Local Authority Super).
I doubt Hewlett-Packard employ civil, aeronautical or environmental engineers. He’s probably an electronics engineer of some sort.
Centre
There’s no point sending it to Fielding. If he’s able to dismiss evolution as a theory in favour of creationism, he’s hardly going to be persuaded by any rational arguent on global warming apart from the Earth exploding in a fireball and it will be kind of to late by then. And even then he’d be thinking it was Plimer’s volcanos playing up.
They’re not ‘real’ engineers
http://theworldgame.sbs.com.au/australia/ffa-to-unveil-secret-weapon-192317
Come Play. Support Australia’s World Cup Bid. Yes, we can.
http://www.australia2018-2022.com.au/
So Fielding got his engineering degree from a technical college. RMIT. Is that as good as one from tafe?
RMIT is a University.
I know I am doing a degree there.
Is Fielding a creationist? I would assume so, but a quick search turns up no direct evidence that he is.
Psephos what do you think of my post at 73?
I doubt “we” can, but I certainly hope “we” don’t. Why would they play the World Cup in a country where soccer isn’t even the second most popular football code, and is mostly played as an excuse to re-enact the Balkan Wars in the grandstand?
Diogs, Fielding is irrelevant and is as weak as tissue paper. If the Greens and X supported Labor then he would cave in like a house of cards
Tom, why do you keep asking me what I think of your posts? You know what I think. I think you live in a political fantasy land. Do you have some deep-seated need to be ridiculed and humiliated? If so I’m happy to help: Tom, you’re an idiot.
Herr Doktor, go back to your Canberra hole. Obviously, you Labor Masters dont agree with you.
86
Like he did on Malcopops?
Tom, why do you keep asking me what I think of your posts?]
Herr Doktor, I agree with you. Your opinion is not worth anything.
58: And even better, blame someone else for Green poor judgement…
“Senator Milne has told ABC 1’s Insiders her colleague was forced into a corner by Forestry Tasmania.
“It was not simply a fundraising ploy, and it wasn’t Bob who raised the spectre of bankruptcy,” she said.
“It was Forestry Tasmania’s legal letter to Senator Brown, saying that he had to pay by the end of the month and threatening the bankruptcy procedures.”
A few points for that spinner of deception, Milne.
a) Forestry Tas didn’t force Bob into a corner, he willingly donned the dunce cap and went there himself.
b) Bob has been aware of the courts ruling re reimbursement for about a year now.
c) As I understand it (and I may be wrong) Forestry Tas can’t “threaten bankruptcy” they can take further legal action to recover their money. It’s up to Bob to file for bankruptcy and a more principled Senator would have done so.
Green propaganda hits the very real wall of the law. And folds.
I think you live in a political fantasy land if you think that the Greens are not going to get bigger. At the last state election they got 10% and the most recent state Newspoll had them at 15%. Gonwyn Pike should be worried.
The only relevant parties on CC are Labor and Liberal, neither is going to give the Greens what they desire.
The Greens want to fight the next election on CC. It will be fought on the economy.
Labor and Liberal will sort it out within the next year. The Greens will be attacked as job destroying eco-purists by both of these parties.
I think (as I’ve said before) that the Nats, the Greens, Xenophon and Fielding will all vote against the CPRS bill. What a united front that is! The Libs will probably vote against it at the first presentation, but when it comes later in the year Turnbull will crack and pass the bill. Some of his Senators will cross the floor, but we only need seven Libs to vote with Labor to pass it, and we will get that. Turnbull knows that if he gives Rudd a DD trigger on this issue, Rudd will use it, and that would be end of Turnbull.
Up to a point Joel. Forrestry Tasmania could have applied to have Brown declared bancrupt, although he certainly also had the option of applying himself.
I must acknowledge that having Milne as the next best thing to Brown in the Green parliamentry party would be a wonderful inducement for any Green supporter to contribute to keep him there.
93
The Greens will attack the big parties as the job destroying puppets of the fossil fuel lobby the are. The Greens will go particularly strong on this in Melbourne, Sydney and Grayndler to try and move a position further up the order of vote getters.
I am not going to side against Bob Brown. I think he’s a top bloke and a decent human being. However, we can still enjoy the Greens’ loony policies
Not supporting the CPRS in the belief that they can persuade other nations to cut their emissions by between 25% – 40% is cuckoo stuff.
Whatever legal action they would have taken would have amounted to bankruptcy, at least in regards to Brown’s Senate seat.
I will take the words of the Clerk of the Senate, who was responding directly to what was in the letter by Forestry Tasmania over yours. =)
Tom, good luck trying to argue common sense on CC. Been there way too many times, I’m bailing.
Who cares? This will gain no traction at all.
Anyone can apply to a court to have a creditor declared bankrupt. Then the court takes charge of the bankrupt’s assets and pays the debt.
Tom F&B, I reckon the Greens are playing with fire over the CPRS. Especially if Turnbull ultimately supports Labor. The Greens are going to be doing themselves serious damage and will never be taken seriously as a political party. Just wait and see!
Bob Brown could easily have gotten a loan for the $260K using the very substantial parliamentary pension he will get when he retires as collateral for the loan. I think he played chicken with Forestry Tas and lost, and then he cried poor when he didn’t need to. But then again, I’m a heartless bastard.
92: Maybe on the mainland states but in the home of the Greens, Tassie, they’ve been losing votes for a few years now. Both in State and Local elections.
Hence Milne’s (or was it Putt’s?) 45 minute whinge at the last state election result night which contrasted nicely with the 8 minute victory speech by Labor.
100
It will have traction with the middle class left vote.
Herr Doktor, the creditor can always “ASK” the debtor (a person who owes a creditor; someone who has the obligation of paying a debt) to pay, including the court. It happens everyday.
104
The Greens in Tasmania had a record vote in 2002 and they came down a bit in 2006. They may well go up next year. Tasmanis also has the highest Green vote of any state despite having a comparatively low middle class left vote to vote for them. Getting seats in mainland lower houses will help their vote and move it to more Tasmanian levels.
Apologies if this link to a pdf report (file size 2.09MB) by Environment Victoria has been posted already.
Title: Victoria, the Green Jobs State – seizing the opportunities. 2009
http://www.envict.org.au/file/file/Green%20Jobs%20Report%20-%20FINAL.pdf
In April, EV together with the Brotherhood of St Laurence organised a Green Jobs summit. As part of the summit EV undertook a substantial piece of research and produced this report. The potential for green jobs in five industries was investigated: solar hot water, rail, wind, energy and water efficiency, and; recycling.
Tom tfab
The middle class vote, left or right is worried about their jobs, the cost of living, their mortgage, getting the kids to a good school, health care for their aging parents, etc.
CC is a minor issue compared to these. Political reality.
The Greens will go nowhere fast if Brown retires anytime soon. Christine Milne has all the political presence of Simon Crean in a dress.
Poss, i thought she was auditioning to be Greta Gabor this morning on the Insiders.
*Resolves not to respond to any more of Finns’s offensive posts*
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/14/2597669.htm?section=justin
Now comes the red hot poker in the conservative eye:
109
CC is a less minor issue in the middle class left vote than anywhere else. Many people vote for the Greens for more spending on public transport, education and health care. But you can continue believing what you do it just makes it easier for the Greens to win.
Greta Gabor = Eva Gabor, apology to Greta, she has more class than that.
Herr Doktor, i am very happy for you. It will bring you the peace of mind you need.
A sad reality for the Greens. He’s 65 in December, so who knows how much longer he’ll stick around?
Finns – that’s a freaky observation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Eva_Gabor.jpg
110
Milne is a bit to abrasive to be leader. If The Greens win Melbourne with a good candidate next election (and keep winning) and Bob Brown stays for another Senate term beyond his current one then the Greens next leader might be a member of the House of Representatives.
119
If my aunty had a beard she’d be my uncle.
Poss, if only Bob Brown looks like Eddie Albert:
http://framemaster.tripod.com/albert.jpg
Otherwise, they will make a great ODD couple of the Greenacre Party.
What happened to the plan to bring Andrew Wilkie into the Senate to replace Brown, and make him Leader? He seems to be an independent now.
Tom, the Greens won’t win Melbourne.
The plan to bring Andrew Wilkie into the Senate fell through when Wilkie turned out not to actually support any Green domestic policy. I’m rather glad this was realised *before* he actually wound up in parliament.
122
Was that ever an official plan?
He was second on the ticket last election but I heard of no plan for him to be a replacement.
To Bob Brown’s credit he looks a lot younger than Phillip Ruddock, even though they are only about a year different in age.
I don’t think the Green vote is nearly as reliant on Brown as people think it is. The Greens in Tassie survived fine without him, and built their vote up significantly.
I hope he stays on long enough that Ludlam can be groomed as a potential leader, because he does have the advantage that he seems to be a bit more charismatic than Milne. I really doubt that it’ll make much difference in the end though – just as the Democrats survived without Chipp, the Greens will survive without Brown.
#120, is this your uncle/auntie?
http://www.myramcwethy.com/BeardedLady04.jpg
Was that ever an official plan?
I doubt it was ever an official plan, but he was an obvious replacement sitting around if and when Brown chose to go, as Cassy O’Connor was with Peg Putt.
All gay men look ten years younger than their / our real age. This is a consequence of our happy and carefree lives.
126
ruawake
Yes but Ruddock died when he handed his soul over to Howard.
128
OMG that’s aunty K!
Every poster on this has had their own pet theory as to what will bring down The Greens. None of their dreams have come true yet.
No harm done though, so why not let them have their fun.
Nothing like a bit of humour on a Sunday afternoon
123
I disagree.
(it rhymes)
Melbourne is a Mostly composed of middle class left vote. There is some working class left vote in the housing commission areas and in the areas near them but the non-housing commission WCLV is being pushed out but higher housing costs. There is a right wing vote too but that is small compared to most other areas. The Greens may well not win Melbourne next election but they are likely to be the ones to replace Tanner either when he retires or by defeating him.
#134
The Greens dont need us. Just like the Dems, they did it all by themselves. That is what will happen to the Greens if they are not careful.
Did he turn out to be to the left or the right of the Greens on domestic issues?
The Democrats survived for a decade and most of another without Chipp as leader. Anyway, Australia only votes for a party in the middle of the majors for a certain period of time before their voters get anoyed with them (DLP and Democrats). The Greens are the first major challenge to Labor from the left. They are more of a threat to Labor than the Communists ever where because they have better policies and are not puppets of a foreign tyrannical regime or seen to be so.
re 104: This may be an empty gesture, but I think I’ve got Putt’s Election ‘06 (it was her?) diatribe as an mp3 somewhere. If I can find it I’ll post the link to it. If not please forget I ever mentioned it.
Tom tfab
Australia does not have a working class, in fact we only have a middle class, some rich, some poor.
The Liberal and Labor parties have grasped this fact.
140 (what an appropriate post to respond to 104 in)
Putt is a rather abrasive like Milne. McKim may cause the Green vote to go back up again.
Are people honestly suggesting that the loss of Chipp was the reason for the Democrats collapse? Heard some crackpot theories about the Dems, but that’s one of the best.
That you do not rub shoulders with them does not mean they do not exist.
The Democrats’ best election was in 1990, when they got 12.6% of the Senate vote. That was Janine Haines’s last election. What sunk the Dems was Meg Lees’s deal with Howard over the GST, followed by the leadership battle which that caused.
Dio 103
I think Milne didnt have a proper explanation as to why BB decided to ask the public for the money to pay HIS debt somehow trying to blame the forestry company for BB’s debt issues.
As far as I am concerned it looks like a set up job IMHO so he didnt have to pay out of his pocket.
141
There is a working class in Australia. Nowhere can is the a society without a working class or a society that can function without one. Australia has lots of people who work in low wage jobs and have nobody in their house hold who is in a medium or high income and most of them lack tertiary education. The majority of Australia is middle class but there is an upper-class and a working class.
If Turnbull or Baillieu thought that there was no upper class then they would be thinking that they did not exist themselves.
144
Here Here
145
I agree with Psephos here (as I mostly do when he is not sprouting Laborthink).
I think that the Greens are one of the reasons that the Democrats vote peaked in 1990.
Australia will always be classless under Labor.
I also tend to disagree with Psephos on Israel.
Australia does have a working-class, but its composition and its political behaviour have changed radically over the past 50 years. Labor used to be the party of the white male labour aristocracy (people like Ben Chifley), but that class doesn’t exist any more. Labor’s base is now the urban multicultural urban working class and the suburban middle class (which we fight over with the Libs).
There is no working class in Australia. You may argue that there is a welfare class or an aspirational class – but I contend when a bricklayer can earn more than a GP or a fitter and turner can earn more than a legal clerk or a coal miner can earn more than a high school principal there is no working class.
Interesting the Greens want to resort to class warfare – how very Stalinist.
153
Labor also fights with the Greens over the inner urban middle class.
To be a fly on the wall.
I’ve seen Sackett in action. She will rip him to bits.
154
Class is not only an income based thing. It is cultural thing too. The three jobs you mentioned are manual labour jobs with a heavy male domination. There are three major classes in society Working Class (manual jobs), Educated Class (rank and file professionals) and Ruling Class (the rich and powerful).
Oz – that comment is unnecessary, I play the ball. Why can’t you?
What the hell is Penny Wong doing trying to explain climate science? Couldn’t they find someone who actually understands it. And why get the Chief Scientist who is also not a climate scientist (she’s an astronomer). Can’t they find anyone better than those two to convince Fielding?
It depends on your definition of “working class”. We have millions of people in low-wage jobs in services, health, retail, tourism, administration, education. They are not guys in blue singlets, but they work for a salary on which they are dependent.
Sorry Tom tfab – that may be fine in a textbook but not in practice. Are you saying a bricklayer is not educated?
Please tell me he didn’t……
159
It is actually a good point. But maybe you just can`t see the poor working class because the are invisible to you even though they are essential to your and everyone else’s life.
True Adam but I would bet the majority would not define themselves as working class.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to offend you (if that’s what I did).
If you take any definition of “working class” as it’s been applied to western countries for the last 50 or 100 years you’ll see Australia has it.
No doubt, but that doesn’t mean they don’t fall into that socio-economic category.
The purpose of the Chief Scientist is to communicate scientific information to the government. Climate scientists are great and all, but aren’t always the best communicators, especially when it comes to conveying that information to people outside the field – like Fielding.
Given this is the Chief Scientists job, she’s a good choice.
No, but *objectively* (to use an old marxist term) they are working-class, and they will tend to vote for their economic interests – that’s why they turned on Howard over WorkChoices.
A bricklayer is assembles walls. It requires some skill but is intellectual in nature. The best jobs for you to attack my argument in 158 are actually doctors and some engineers and lab researchers but they are still mostly intellectuals so this post out argues you on them.
Did he turn out to be to the left or the right of the Greens on domestic issues?
To the right, by quite a way. I’m actually surprised he hasn’t joined the Labor Party – he seems to be fairly ideologically close to say Paul Lennon.
Are people honestly suggesting that the loss of Chipp was the reason for the Democrats collapse? Heard some crackpot theories about the Dems, but that’s one of the best.
What he said!
Sackett was chosen for her ability to communicate scientific facts to dense politicians. She has an excellent grasp of climate science.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2009/2592709.htm
Redwombat @ 163, it does take some time to get up off the floor when you fall over laughing…
Tom
But some of the politicians are just too dense and/or absorbed in vested interests.
173
Maybe Obama will give him a note for his teacher.
Fielding may be dense but the questions he has been given would be from well-informed sceptics. They probably will be quite detailed and technical, and Sackett may well not be able to provide specific answers. Climate science involves a huge number of disciplines and an astronomer will just be a well-informed amateur.
Tom tfab
Try building a curved brick wall with an arched doorway, getting it level and perpedicular and making sure it is still standing in 50 years.
176
But I will be surprised if as Chief Scientist she does not come prepared for the major sceptics arguments.
Not sure if this is on topic (is there one?) but isn’t it a bit silly for Gillard to be “furious” and Rudd “savage” of the CBA increase in rates?
Given that the CBA has been around a lot longer than most pollies and presumably want to be around for a bit more?
Where would the Government be regarding the “savings guarantee” if the CBA collapsed?
(apols. for too many questions, off-topic-ness etc etc)
Tom
True but if I was in Big Coal and “advising” Fielding, I would anticipate Sackett’s superficial understanding and get him to ask very specific questions that require significant expertise. She won’t be able to say more than “I’ll have to get back to you on that” and he will leave unconvinced.
Why not get an expert?
177
Build the wall to the hight of the top of the strait section of the doorway, install the pre-made (according to the architect/surveyor`s plans) lintel, cut bricks to the relevant angle and lay a course over the arch and then build the wall up to the top.
Tom the secongd @ 175, Obama’s probably organising for Fielding to repeat a year…
Tom.
You have faith in Fielding to adequately represent the nonsensical views of climate change sceptics, but you don’t think the Chief Scientist who, as Psephos points out, is very well versed in the science can counter that?
Two possibilities:
1) Fielding genuinely wants to know the science behind climate change.
2) He’s being a goose for his own political benefit.
If the first, then the CS will be able to explain it to him better than almost anyone and he should come out of it accepting the truth.
If the second, it doesn’t matter who tries to explain it to him he just won’t accept it.
179
If the was created by Labor politicians and sold by politicians. This rate decision is partly Keating`s fault for privatising the CBA.
Define expert?
There is not really any precise discipline on the topic of “climate change”. Various groups of scientists like marine scientists, atmospheric scientists, climatologists, meterologists and geoligists specialise in their own areas and then collate the information.
If you got an expert on say, atmospheric science, to explain the link between CO2 and warming (the greenhouse effect) Fielding might ask a question about why it, rightly or wrongly, doesn’t correlate with ice core evidence or sea level rises.
183
The government position of “Chief Scientist” reads like something out of a Famous Five adventure book where Uncle Quentin “did formulae” in his study as the “top scientist”.
“nonsensical” is not an appropriate term in this remarkably civilised forum.
All science requires “dissenters” whether right or wrong for the overall advancement of knowledge.
The govt’s rage is for the benefit of other banks. It would be very bad for bussiness and investor confidence for them to do the same.
I don’t think Fielding is being briefed by “big coal.” The coal industry has excellent access to power and doesn’t need to use fringe nitwits like Fielding. I watched their testimony before the Senate committee. They do not reject CC and accept the need for an ETS. They just don’t want to lose any money when one is introduced. Fielding is just a denialist religious whacko. Anyway it doesn’t matter whether he changes his mind or not, because whether the CPRS bill passes or not depends on Turnbull, not him.
Dissent, when grounded in logic, is fine.
When it has no basis, it is nonsensical.
Tom tfab
I used the example I did very specifically. I have a 1.8 mtr brick wall around my property – no problem, the curved bits (on a corner block and alowing for council by-laws on visability) were a pain but not too difficult.
At the entrance I have a 180 degree curve, with a brick arch and a curved wooden gate. (Ms ru has some weird ideas).
Every single brick had to be cut with a diamond saw. If you think that the abilty to do this does not require “education” sorry I disagree.
PS – The wall is called NRMA – thanks for the shares guys.
An astronomer with a PhD in physics is exactly the right sort of person to destroy the solar flares gumph that the Feartland Institute is promoting. Adam is right – she’ll rip him to shreds, but knowing Penny, she’ll do it nicely. The American accent won’t hurt either.
If Fielding is convinced by Sackett and Wong and agrees to pass the CPRS bill and X gets a few drops of water for the M-D, it would leave the Greens in a messy place.
Oz, you beat to it. And after the GFC, there are no experts left, except Diog.
It still depends on the Libs, ruawake. Getting the minors/indies on side won’t matter if Mal says no. It will make him look like a tool, but he’s a doing a good job of that at the moment anyway.
Better do a recount. ALP + Greens + 2 indies is a majority in the Senate.
marktwain
If (there is that big little word again) FF and X decided to vote for the CPRS (unlikely – but possible) it would be the Greens who would be percieved as preventing the bill passing the Senate.
Probably because that’s exactly what they were doing.
The Nats, the Greens, Fielding and Xenophon have no political interest in passing the CPRS bill, because they can all play to their constituencies better by rejecting it. Apart from Labor, only Turnbull has a political interest in passing the bill, because if he doesn’t Rudd will pull a DD on him and he will be smashed. That’s why he will eventually pass it.
Seems like wishful thinking Adam…
After all if all of the cross benchers reject it and the public get wise to the problems of the CPRS then Turnbull may back himself instead…
What he said.
That would be Adam, not Glen. D’oh!
We’re all climate scientists now. Try putting up a funding proposal without taking climate impact factors into account.
Glen, my political side actually hopes Turnbull commits political suicide by blocking it, because we will absolutely smash him at an election on this issue, especially as the Rudd Recovery is beginning. It’s only my responsible policy side that wants him to pass it, because I want no more delay on the ETS. If he doesn’t pass it, we’ll do so after the election, if necessarily at a joint sitting. You will be looking for a new leader.
Glen
So I guess Kimbo may be correct – the only way to get an emissions trading scheme in Australia is by a DD.
Adam either way we lose….
If we pass it we look gutless and our leader if you can call him that would take a hit in the polls…
If we block it the ALP doesnt get what they want and forces KR to go to an early poll which we can hammer him on because he said he doesnt want a DD…
We may still lose by the same margin as we would in 2010 probably by less IMHO…remember that people dont like being forced to the polls before they have to RE: Malcolm Fraser…
Been busy all day. Just watched the Fielding interview. Geez. At least he has worked out that he is not going to get re-elected. He hasn’t worked out much else though.
Global Warming came out of nowhere. Next day, Al Gore (a politician, always trustworthy) is saying we’re all going to cook.
Peak Oil’s been around for decades, AGW just doesn’t have the “runs on the board”
Gimme a break. It’s been around for decades.
Gee it’s amazing what you can find on the wik:
[In most English-speaking countries, support for action to mitigate global warming, such as ratification and implementation of the Kyoto Protocol is strong on the political left.
However, the first politician putting Global Warming on the political agenda was Richard Nixon 1969[5]. Nixon wanted environmental topics (as acid rain and greenhouse effect) to be treated by a third and civil pillar of NATO. The reaction of the NATO allies was lukewarm but the initiative gained impact in the civil field[5]. Margaret Thatcher has been involved as well in bringing an anti-carbon element in the public agenda[citation needed][6]. In Germany Angela Merkel, then secretary of the environment during the conservative Helmut Kohl government, lead the German Kyoto Delegation and had a substantial role in making the Kyoto agreement possible[7]]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_global_warming#Political_sphere
I actually agree with you Glen at 205. I reckon neither Liberal or Labor want a DD. I would bet with confidence that their is no DD on CC. In fact I reckon that the CPRS legislation not being passed until after the next election would be favourite.
According to Malcolm Turnbull that the Oppo. is on the side of the Govt, side-by-side, joined at the hip, on Climate Change
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no so soooooorry, on Australia 2018-2022 bid for Football World Cup.
Gee I love how The Oz has taken a nice balanced approach to reporting:
Journalism at its finest…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/specials/0,,5019073,00.html
I still say re-regulate the banks. They are trying to break the link between the official cash rates and lending rates.
Another way would be to up their capital adequacy ratio in order to bring them to heal.
Turnbull’s assertion that government borrowings are pushing up rates is allbull. Government borrowing has barely yet began.
Centre the fact is we’re all jumping around about DD’s but lets look at the fact how many DD triggers did Howard have and didnt use or didnt force for a second time because he didnt want a DD…
Just because the Senate stiffles you doesnt mean you go for a DD if that was the case Howard would have fought 10 elections as PM than 5 LOL…
So by that measure, I’m expecting some questions tomorrow criticising the Govt spending money on the bid?
The CPRS legislation will not pass the Senate in the next two weeks. So it will be introduced again in Oct/Nov.
An election will not be held in Dec, Jan, Feb. There are State elections to get out of the way so we are probably looking at May, but that is too close to the Budget, so its probably Aug/Sept next year.
The only issue is will Kev call a DD or a “normal” election?
#215 – not for 5 billion reasons.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25634227-661,00.html
From the WA Today story on the so called ALP Victims of Crime Slush Fund.
And this is the bit which proves it was transperent.
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/crime-money-used-to-favour-labor-electorates-attorneygeneral-20090614-c75w.html
And what a coincidence this story comes out after a week where the WA Libs have their own issues with conflict of interest.
Yes Glen. You would only go to a DD over serious issues relating to the economy or A major part of the budget, but not CC.
Nothing wrong with warehousing a DD trigger or two. The libs are in woeful condition. If labor can put the boot in while they are down, it can only be a good thing.
Finns according to some of the soccer experts I know, we have got bucklies of getting the world cup in 2018 and therefore should use our resources only for a serious attempt at 2022.
Oh and the Sunday Crimes had a dead tree story about Labor Staffers taking advantage of being on Term of Government Contracts, especially those employed by Michelle Roberts which includes her Husband, and several other family members.
I think the Slimes is still paying out on Labor because of that Raid.
and quite a few have joined the ranks of the WA Liberal Govt
Oh and it’s funny Christian Porter bleating about this considering where the Rorts for Regions funding is favouring National Party Electorates
Hypocrites.
#221, true. It almost certain that England will get 2018, out of pity really for the Poms and if they have any money left after 2012 Olympics. But you have to bid for both to have any chance for 2022, because everyone is doing it:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25633844-11088,00.html
I also think maybe we can do some sort of semi-joint bid with Indonesia, or give them some preliminary group games. It will be good politically.
81
I don’t think it was when Fielding was there – like Swinburne, it was a Tech (hence the name).
Later, not sure when (can’t be bothered finding out) it and other Techs were upgraded to Unis.
Good point Finns. I seem to remeber we put in somewhat a modest bid for the Olympics in 1996 (won by Athens) before a serious bid for 2000.
Tell me guys, is this ETS going to stop global warming? I’m just a bit curious.
Don’t worry PF. There are plenty of other planets to choose from in the avatar above yours LOL
ruawake @ 216
Another point to bear in mind is that under section 13 of the Constitution, the terms of senators elected following a double dissolution are deemed to have commenced on the preceding 1 July. So if a double dissolution election is held in May next year, those terms will run from 1 July 2009, will expire on 30 June 2012 (for the short term senators), and therefore a half senate election will be required between 1 July 2011 and around May 2012. And from that if follows that a DD in May next year will either be followed by the first separate half Senate election in over 40 years, or by a House of Representatives which lasts only around 2 years.
Other things being equal – and that’s a big qualification – double dissolutions, for the reasons spelt out above, become less attractive to governments as the financial year proceeds.
Well it’s a perfectly reasonable question to ask, “Centre”. If this ridiculous policy is going to be passed (or the Liberals will be “destroyed” for blocking it) shouldn’t promoters guarantee that it will cause temperatures to fall? I mean, what’s the point?
If all countries take the appropriate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions NOW, then global warming will eventually (in about 2050 if we’re lucky) be arrested and put into reverse. It’s already too late to stop global warming continuing to 2020 and beyond.
No the promoters don’t have to G/- anything.
The libs had 12 years to do something positive. They used this time to punish anyone they didn’t like and to wedge on every occassion.
Well the wheel has turned. Suck it up sunshine
PF
yeah, great idea, let’s just keep wrecking the planet.
On a more serious note — (i) this is not the place to debate climate change; (ii) despite (i) we have done so ad lib ab nauseum and I sincerely hope we’re not going to do it again (iii) suggest you go to one of the sites devoted to cc and the enviro if you want to find out the facts.
However, I’m pretty sure the facts are not what interests you.
Glen and GP, PF is obviously a potential recruit for your side. I would suggest giving him a bit of an education, because he’s either not going to be taken seriously (unlike your good selves, however aggravating you get at times) or will soon lose heart.
#232,
And if the US, China, India, Japan etc do nothing or nothing substantial? Then what?
It’s as good a place as any, and if PF actually wants answers to his questions, then he will get them.
What patrick is sayings makes perfect sense Zoom because if we do something and there is no consensus then it will have been for nothing…
Plus if climate change is not entirely man made then there are more questions to be asked.
Then global warming will continue to the point of irreversability, and will accelerate, and the human species will at best be enormously reduced in numbers and in standard of civilisation, and at worst will be extinct by the end of the century.
#234,
Mate, warming the planet doesn’t mean we’re wrecking it. It just means some people in some areas may become a little bit more inconvenienced.
If you want to talk about wrecking the environment, take a trip back into time to the Eastern Bloc or go to present day India.
#238,
Ie: “we’re all going to die”. Ok. I’ve got you.
That is the worst-case scenario, but it’s not impossible. We are only alive because we have an atmosphere of a composition and at a temperature we can breathe. Poisoning and heating it simultaneously doesn’t seem like a very good idea.
More casino economics finns
Psephos,
If Turnbull or the Libs block this, they will have the blood of future generations on their hands.
They will have their OWN BLOOD on their hands – they will be bleed dry at a DD. Put every dollar you have on it. It will be money for jam. And they richly deserve the flogging thats coming.
I wouldn’t put it that way. Australia is the world’s 19th largest emitter of CO2. If we do nothing, then all the countries that emit less than us will take that as an excuse also to do nothing. Between them they are responsible for 20% of all CO2 emissions. Also, large emitters like China and India have said that they won’t act unless rich countries like Australia also act. So if the CPRS bill is rejected, that will significantly damage the effort to get an international agreement on climate change.
Why do so many right wing presenters from the ABC go in to politics? Apparently, Sarah Henderson has won Liberal pre selection for Corangamite.
http://www.vexnews.com/news/4829/corangamite-sara-henderson-will-be-liberal-candidate-after-gruelling-7-hour-preselection-process/
All righty, if we really want to go down this path:
PF, the vast majority of scientists who know what they’re talking about agree that we have bought into some measure of irreversible climate change.
They also agree that, if proper mitigation measures are taken quickly, we can slow down the rate of cc and probably stabilise it (after 2020).
A stable climate, even if it’s changed from that we have at present, ensures that humans can do what they need to in terms of forward planning. Our whole way of life depends on (always have) some degree of climate stability – we need to know what crops will grow where, where people can live safely etc. So stabilising the climate, even if it has changed, is of crucial importance.
The fact that the climate will be different is also important to recognise and to try and predict.
Firstly, a changing climate generates a growing number of extreme weather events, usually in quick succession e.g. in my area, mini tornado followed by fire followed by flood in less than six weeks. This obviously causes major difficulties for people simply trying to live their lives in safety.
Secondly, some of these extreme events have predictable consequences. In my area, increased levels of flooding will lead to a major river shifting from one side of the valley to another and permanently flooding the town’s CBD. In other countries, the predicted (and increasingly seen as a modest prediction) 1 metre rise in sea levels will be catastrophic, as some of the major population densities occur at below this water level.
So, yes, we need to mitigate to provide a stable and predictable climate, which will allow us to plant crops and feed ourselves. And we need to adapt because the climate IS changing and won’t change back.
But zoomster, some scientists who also think the links between smoking and cancer have been massively overstated have told me that sunspots are the reason. Shouldn’t we stop and pause so the hundreds of published scientists who have been writing all this guff about CC can say it again; and then I can say, well it seems to me there are two sides to this debate so we should just wait a nd see before committing ourselves.
That seems to be fair. (in Fielding world at least…)
It seems that Patrick has been persuaded since he has no further questions. A good evening’s work.
I’ve been down this path so many times (internet debates on CC) that I’ve become pretty adept at separating the people who are genuinely open minded and those who just enjoy being contrary for fun.
Patrick Fogarty strikes me as someone in the latter category. So good on you for taking the time to respond, but I wouldn’t hold much hope.
GG be nice to Sarah after all she’ll be the new Member for Corangamite after the next election…
Shouldnt be too hard beating a MP who’s only method of transport is a bicycle LOL!
Glen, here is a refutation of the view that global warming is being caused by solar activity.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11650-climate-myths-global-warming-is-down-to-the-sun-not-humans.html
Thank you for the light reading…
Adam i merely point out to you that the climate has constantly been changing up and down for centuries and my own personal view is that it therefore cannot entirely be caused by man…
Glen I thought the Cheese was one of our less likely prospects in 2007, but he beat a sitting member who was a very likeable person, who had held the seat for 23 years, and whose family have been well-known in the area for a century. He did so because of the rapid growth of the Surf Coast towns (full of people who ride bicycles, by the way), and the rejection of WorkChoices by the Geelong suburbs. So it was SurfChoices and SerfChoices
(God I’m so funny sometimes.) Both of those factors will still operate next year. So don’t get your hopes up.
Read the goddam article Glen and stop talking like a moron, otherwise I have to conclude you are one.
Adam
WC is dead nuff said the issue doesnt bite anymore…
Some of those votes are going to come back and he’s not sitting on a big margin…
Cheeseman hasnt done anything of note in Parliament and with only a few years as a local MP he’s ready to be knocked off…I’d say that seat and Deakin are well within our grasp in Victoria…
Not entirely caused by man? So if 1% of the effect is due to sunspots we’re all saved?
Its interesting that in all the debate about climate all the is it isnt it focuses on temperature. Yup, its a problem but there is this paper from the Royal society in 2005:
http://royalsociety.org/document.asp?id=3249
“Evidence indicates that emissions of carbon dioxide from human activities over the past 200 years have already led to a reduction in the average pH of surface seawater of 0.1 units and could fall by 0.5 units by the year 2100. This pH is probably lower than has been experienced for hundreds of millennia and, critically, at a rate of change probably 100 times greater than at any time over this period.”
People, doing something that changes the basic chemistry of something as ginormously humungous as the oceans is really really significant. Regardless of any debates about short term temperature variations, there is a lot of evidence out there that increasing atmospheric CO2 is a bad thing and we need to make changes.
Fielding is a git.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/kooyong-calling-the-egos-behind-the-battle-20090613-c6tc.html?page=2
Hopefully Frydenberg can get up in Kooyong, we need some new blood for the front bench…
You go on thinking that, Glen.
He’s had 18 months to ingratiate himself, he’s got bucketloads of stimulus money to take credit for, and the Libs have lost Stewie’s personal vote, which was considerable.
He’s done plenty in the electorate, which is what counts. But they won’t be voting for the Cheese mostly, they’ll be voting for Kevin, the man who saved Australia from recession and global warming. My prediction for Corangamite: 5% swing to Labor.
You go on thinking that, Adam.
Bullbutter
It was so considerable that he lost his seat lol!
Being a voter in Corangamite I can speak with a little insight.
SurfChoices and SerfChoices were in important, but Cheeseman just won Corangamite because McArthur was well past it. If the liberals pick someone decent they are in with a chance, for sure. Cheeseman is likable but is nothing more than a place holder for a vote, and the locals know it.
Of course he had a personal vote, particular in the rural areas. He’d been the member for 23 years and was very popular, deservedly so. His father Sir Gordon was the state member for 34 years. If he’d retired in 2007, Labor would have won by a much larger margin.
Oh, and remember many of us received our little blue racist batting literature from the liberals, no doubt that seriously pissed of some voters.
Oh goody, so we just have to stand out there and point to the rising sea levels, intoning “In Glen’s personal view, this isn’t happening.”
BTW, the climate has never changed this rapidly, the rise in temperature levels are in step (there’s a lag factor) with the rise in CO2, the rise of CO2 is in step with the rise in industrialisation…of course, it’s all a big spooky coincidence.
But Psephos he was more past it, than Howard was.
Psephos,
If you think WorkChoices is going to be an issue that drives voters next election, you are completely deluding yourself. BTW don’t forget that over 47% of the country voted for it.
I find it amusing to note that some of you are already referring to a pathetically small rate of real GDP growth (and overlooking a steady decline in GDP per capita) as a “Rudd recovery” – as if he had something to do with it. If were never in a “technical recession”, what would we have been recovering from?
“BTW, the climate has never changed this rapidly”.
Its happened before at the end of the late Devonian, Permian-Triassic and Triassic-Jurassic periods, all major Extinction events.
Patrick
Nobody is going to care about the fine print.
267
You and Glen are dreamin’ if you think Workchoices won’t be an issue at the next election. I could draw up the campaign posters today if required. They would have the faces of Costello, Hockey and Turnbull plastered all over them.
You go right ahead and scoff at the terrific position Rudd and Co have placed our economy all things considered but the vast majority of voters think that Labor has done a good job so far. They also think that Labor are the better managers of the economy so you’ll just have to get used to bagging ard carping from the sidelines ’cause that’s where your mob will be for many years to come.
Sorry, fredn, referring to the ‘modern’ climate but–
in the cases of the great extinction events, the cause of the rapid climate changes are easily identifiable (ruddy great meteors hitting the earth does tend to change things a teensy bit, for example). We don’t have ruddy great meteors in sight at the moment (scans sky anxiously) but we do have climate change happening at a rapid rate. We also don’t have any of the other usual suspects (volcanic activity, sun spots, etc) in play either. We do have one theory which explains what is happening at the moment and explains it very well.
Glen
Just watch this 6 minute video which explains why it is not the sun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Sf_UIQYc20&feature=channel_page
So nearly 53% voted against it. I’ll be happy with that at the next election.
You’ll find it less amusing on election night.
No-one disputes there has been a downturn, caused by the failed policies of your mates in the Republican Party. By election day we will be recovering from that downturn, while much of the rest of the OECD will still be wallowing in recession. Voters will draw their own conclusions.
Anyways I have an early start tomorrow so I’ll see you all another time.
*phut*
Steve K says: “You go right ahead and scoff at the terrific position Rudd and Co have placed our economy all things considered”
Yeah – $300 billion debt, anemic growth (even declining growth depending on the survey your looking at) a re-regulated labour market, a ridiculously complex and unnecessary ETS – these guys deserve a medal!
Voters get what they vote for, though. I’m perfectly happing carping from the sidelines for the meantime and watching the unfolding trainwreck. You guys deserve it.
zoomster I’m not arguing the reasons were different. To my mind the rapid change is going to lead to very big changes, and in reality we don’t know where this is going to lead. I’m pretty dam sure those denying things are happening are going to look pretty stupid.
However, it times of stress parties to the left do not do well, so who knows..
Sorry “not different”.
Patrick
It’s a non event, enjoy who tax refund, and be happy that it is a once off, the Liberals are pretending ti would happen every year.
Ahh, Liberal Talking ponts straight from HQ – nice try.
I think the voters prefer our mob over your mob, but as Johnny Burnette once sang.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAWYSgJiu8k
275
You still miss the point – the majority of voters think Labor is doing a good job and that they are the better managers of the economy.
zoomster
The relationship between CO2 and temperature is not straightforward. CO2 often increases BEFORE temperature goes up. Increased CO2 levels cause “forcing” which amplifies increases in temperature for other reasons.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWJeqgG3Tl8&feature=channel_page
Slight change of topic.
Just look at this graph of medical costs in the US as a % of GDP. It’s gone from 4% in the 1930s and is 17% now. It’s pretty scary.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/06/remember-the-hmo-revolution.html
Zoomster did refer to the lag factor.
Oz
The impression I got from zoomsters post was that the lag had CO2 rising BEFORE warming happened, not AFTER. Either can happen.
too bloody right. Just think how up the creek we’d be if we had Peter – preserve the surplus – Costello in charge. Or Joe, Or Turnbull.
You guys seem to think unemplyoment benefits don’t cost the govt any money…
Carping is about all that the libs have left. The train wreck BTW is the carcass of the coalition. The best thing about it all is that they STILL have learnt nothing. Just keep going further out to the radical right.
And enjoy the cross benches. Its home for a Loong loong time. Costello knows that. If he folds from renomination, it confirms it. If he renominates – more instability and infighting. A rerun of howard/ peacock. At the same time no policies, no money or resources and talent departed for greener pastures.
All you have left is piss and wind. Bluff and Blunder. Firing blanks…….
The first 10 years or so are the worst. After that you mellow.
But no one cares about you anymore – business will going with the best deal on offer. The libs electoral demographics are a nightmare any which you read them.
Don’t let the door hit ya bum on the way out
284
…which is not what you said, Diog. I said before and you said before. You’ve only said after in 284.
I don’t claim to be an expert, and I’m not trying to give an expert summary. As I said, if people want that, they need to go to another site.
zoomster
My bad.
281 should have said “CO2 often increases AFTER temperature goes up.” CO2 then acts as an amplifier which leads to a further temperature rise, so CO2 increases can pre-date and post-date temperature rises.
Ta, Diog. And that was something I didn’t know.
Climate is a very complex business, yet people like Fielding seem to expect to be able to have it all explained in simplistic terms. That’s simply not possible.
Here is the ABC TV News Story on Christian Porter’s Claims of ALP Porkbarrelling.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2009/06/14/2597792.htm
All I’ll say is listen for John Quigley
Sarah Henderson wins the Corangamite preselection. See Andrew Landeryou and his comments thread for much confusion over who backed whom.
SNIP: THM, if you want to get banned, comments like this one are a brilliant way of going about it – The Management.
I think Cheeseman will be fine in Corangamite. He’s done nothing to upset the horses, and Rudd’s still popular out that way. If the Liberals couldn’t knock off the state seat of South Barwon at the last election, where they had a good candidate and a bumbling fool for a local member, I doubt they’re in any position to knock off Cheeseman. Henderson was a wise choice though, I have to say – her mother was a popular member in her time.
I had to laugh at the suggestion of Stewart McArthur as having some huge personal vote, though. McArthur was an awful case of dead wood who would’ve been knocked off in preselection years ago if he and his wife weren’t party powerbrokers. He was totally useless at dealing with constituent issues and never seen between elections. I dare say the only pollies still in office out that way who actually have a personal vote are both from state politics: Terry Mulder (best local MP you could ever get) and Ian Tresize.
For those interested in mining methane clathrates, some potentially good news. A fair way to go, I imagine, before it is a proven technology that might be scaled up to a global, financially feasible set of operations:
http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/22756/
There is an awful lot of methane about. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that warming might turn on team work between those trying to mine the stuff and those trying to stop it from getting into the atmosphere before it can be mined.
BTW
Saw my first pine bark beetle the other day. It was very, very small critter.
It, and its mates, had alerted me to their presence by killing a rather nice copse of mature pines. I doubt that this, a rather local event, was related to climate change.
from the first article I found after googling ‘climate change pine beetles’.
We’ve seen a similar thing with blackberry infestations – milder winters means that they are occuring at higher altitudes. In fact, the ‘creeping’ of blackberries up the slopes was one of the first observable signs of a changed climate (but was initially explained locally as a mutation by the plants or – by mountain cattlemen – as evidence that cattle had played a role in weed suppression).
Zoomster, what do you think about the UN climate change secretariat saying that a strong global deal on climate change is being undermined by a lack of ambitious targets by developed countries, who have so far suggested aggregate cuts of 16-24%, in line with Australia’s position?
If the liberal party picks a few more moderates like
Sarah Henderson and kick out a few of the right win nutters they may have some hope.
Dam good choice. We will see who is right at the next election.
Bibi’s roadmap to peace:
* The Palestinian State must be completely demilitarized – in the name of protecting Israeli security, and preventing another Gaza. I would have thought that same demand should apply to Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. So Israel can be completely secured.
* The Palestinian State must have no control of its airspace. Isn’t that already the case.
* The Palestinian State must not have ways of getting weapons and forming military alliances.
* Palestinian Refugees have no right to migrate back to their ancestral lands in the current state of Israel
* Jerusalem must be the “United Capital of Israel”
Yaaahooo. Just as well they dont like pigs in the ME. Otherwise, they might start flying in the Israel’s control air space. Over to you Miss Hillary.
Looks like Nathan Rees is in hot water after stealing what he called “the most significant reform” of the public service off Queensland.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/image/nsw.gif
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/image/queensland.gif
Oz
I’ve said before that I’m not happy with the government’s targets. I don’t know why I keep being asked to repeat that position.
I’ve argued very strongly on this blog that we’re not taking cc serioulsy enough and that fighting cc requires real sacrifices in living standards.
The consensus on this blog appears to be that noone is willing to adjust their living standards to combat cc, despite posters agreeing that this is the most serious problem to face us in our lifetimes.
If the (generally) well educated and concerned citizens of this blog can’t or won’t accept cuts to their living standards to solve a global problem of this severity, then I don’t think governments can be expected to be similarly courageous.
I have also consistently said I prefer some action to none (and the scientific consensus appears to be better something pathetic now rather than hanging out for greater action later) , and the CPRS is its present form appears to be the only chance we have of anything getting through the Senate.
[Looks like Nathan Rees is in hot water after stealing what he called “the most significant reform” of the public service off Queensland.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/image/nsw.gif
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/image/queensland.gif
Terrible news. What is the QLD public service going to do now that their structure is gone?
Phillip Coorey on Rudd’s promise for four year fixed terms:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/no-rush-now-for-that-dignity-fix-20090614-c7a2.html
The targets are too weak and are already undermining a global deal but we should lock them in anyway.
Gotcha.
Corangamite: the Geelong suburbs in the seat are the biggest area of new home-buyers in Victoria so a different group of voters next time whose disposable income will have increased due to falling rates. The surprise in Corangamite last time was the pro-Labor swing in Colac will henderson have a profile here? The ring-road is open from yesterday and dumping a lot of traffic in Waurn Ponds this will not be popular but the extension to be completed next year will solve this problem. Workchoices: the voters who swung against Howard on this issue weren’t rusted-on conservatives why shouldn’t they stick with Labor?
I hope people are keeping track of what is currently going on in Iran. Here is a good live blog of the events:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
Andrew Sullivan is also posting regular updates:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/
According to a Mousavi spokesperson, this is how the coup occurred:
[ According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, in the early hours after voting had ended, the Interior Ministry had called Mr. Mousavi’s campaign headquarters to inform them that Mr. Mousavi would be the winner and, therefore, Mr. Mousavi must prepare a victory statement. Mr. Mousavi was, however, asked by the Ministry not to boast too much, in order not to upset Mr. Ahmadinejad’s supporters. Many of the president’s supporters are among the ranks of the Basij militia, and thus armed. According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was also informed of the developments. He also recommended a “good management” of the victory statement, meaning not boasting greatly about the victory, because that would be in Iran’s national interests and stability.
At the same time, the reformist newspapers were also informed that they can prepare their Saturday edition to declare Mr. Mousavi the winner, but were not allowed to use the word pirouzi (victory) in their articles, in order not to upset Mr. Ahmadinejad’s supporters. One reformist newspaper prepared its front page with the title, “People took back the flag of their country [from Mr. Ahmadinejad].” But, just a few hours later, a center that had been set up by Mr. Mousavi in Gheytarieh (in northern Tehran) for monitoring the election and vote counting, was attacked by armed security agents. They ransacked the center, destroyed computers, and attacked the staff. Supporters of Mr. Mousavi intervened and arrested 8 security agents. The police was called to take them to prison, but the police released the attackers. According to Mr. Makhbalbaf, the central headquaters of Mr. Mousavi’s campaign was also surrounded by security forces, as was the Interior Ministry building. Then, new data began to be released by the Ministry, indicating that Mr. Ahmadinejad had won the elections decisively. Mr. Makhbalbaf then declared that, “I have been authorized by Mr. Mousavi’s campaign to officially declare that a political coup has taken place, in order to declare Mr. Ahmadinejad the victor.” ]
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/a-timeline-of-the-coup.html#more
Here is a Twitter account of a student who is currently trapped in his dorm:
http://twitter.com/change_for_iran
He asserts that it is Hezbolah that is leading the resistance against the protesters, NOT the Iranian police. Obviously Amenajahd didn’t think the police would remain loyal to him, so he has imported thugs to do the job for him.
The targets can be changed at any time simply by the minister saying that the targets are changed.
Is the minister likely to change the targets that she has just placed in the legislation prior to Copenhagen?
No.
Welcome back, by the way.
Adam will be loving this. The more militant unions are sooking about Gillard’s IR laws and making Labor look very moderate on IR. The general public will be cheering on Rudd and Gillard on this one, and Labor can show they aren’t in the pocket of the unions.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25636325-601,00.html
Pile of crap. Wishful thinking.
I hope people are keeping track of what is currently going on in Iran. Here is a good live blog of the events:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html
Andrew Sullivan is also posting regular updates:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/
Here is a Twitter account of a student who is currently trapped in his dorm:
http://twitter.com/change_for_iran
He asserts that it is Hezbolah that is leading the resistance against the protesters, NOT the Iranian police. Obviously Amenajahd didn’t think the police would remain loyal to him, so he has imported thugs to do the job for him.
zoomster @ 301
Well said, I couldn’t agree more. Do you think Turnbull will vote against a second tabling of the CC Bill in Oct/Nov, risking a DD trigger? Does he risk a scenario, post-Copenhagen, where he faces a DD election on CC with higher targets than had he passed the Bill in the first place?
Corangamite went to preferences last time, and will again next time, so its the strength of the green vote that interests me the most.
Isn’t the proposed de-salination plant in Corangamite? or at least close by?
Corangamite is to the of South West of Melbourne including outeer suburbs of Geelong, Colac and Torquay.
The Desal plant is at Kilkunda which is to the south east of Melbourne just past Phillip Island. It’s part of Flinders.
Share and enjoy!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/
Antony,
Have redistributions in NSW and Qld been finalised?
They won’t be finalised until early next year.
I think Rudd pays Doug Cameron to say these things so that he can be seen holding the centre ground, which is always where the voters are.
That calculator does not do justice to Melbourne. I want a calculator to show the national swing needed for the Greens to take it (and Sydney and Grayndler).
317
No, that might be why he gets away with it but I think that he says so partly because he genuinely believes it. Bring on the Senate rebellion on a Greens amendment to scrap the ABCC now and also its powers.
I live in the real world, Oz, and some action is better than no action.
Your alternative? (I’m seeking a real one, something that will be up and running before Copenhagen).
You’re good at asking others to lay it on the line.
Why would he need to pay him to do it?
“One-third of Victorians may have flu”
http://www.theage.com.au/national/onethird-of-victorians-may-have-flu-20090614-c7eq.html
Apparently up to half of Victorians are male too…
Seriously, I feel that reporting of swine flu is getting a little silly now. What are the statistics for death and morbidity associated with Swine Flu versus other strains of flu in the past?
Is this Swine Flu ‘thing’ a beat-up or not?
In a word, yes
The point though is that negotiating from our range is in fact worse than sitting there meekly and not doing anything.
We’ve already seen the damage Australia can do to international deals when we take a weak stance at Kyoto.
A higher target, legislated or not (this will make not one bit of difference at Copenhagen) will provide a much stronger negotiating base and rather than undermine a potential deal will increase the chances of it occuring.
If then the Opposition still refuses to pass the legislation, DD, and almost everyone here is in agreement that Labor will clean up.
it’s a total beat up. If it hadn’t started in the slums of Mexico City and killed people there, we wouldn’t be hearing about it all. It’s just flu. But of course the government can’t say that because if someone dies they will accused of not having done enough.
Of course it will. We can’t go to Copenhagen and lecture other countries when our Parliament has just voted to do nothing.
How many successful UN treaties or protocols have been negotiated from the starting point of all players, even just the main ones, already pre-empting the outcome and legislating beforehand?
It’s the other way around.
It suits the government’s agenda of wedging the Opposition to pretend as though whether or not *they* support the legislation is important at Copenhagen, but they know themselves it doesn’t.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25636648-5006301,00.html
Why are Liberals so slow in realising the obvious? They refused to believe the people hated WorkChoices until it was too late, they refused to believe they would be voted out at the 2007 election until it was too late, the list goes on…
So, Oz, you’re proposing that we keep shilly shalling and doing nothing in the hope that somehow things are rosier in the future?
At what point do we say that there’s no point in waiting any longer and that we have to act?
‘A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush’ – a legislated target now, weak though it may be, is surely better than hoping that the stars align to deliver us a better target sometime undefined in the future.
I have repeatedly been told by those advocating for cc that we need to act now, and that further delays, however principled, are counter productive.
Has the science changed somehow?
There’s no point setting a target unless it has legislation behind it.
Euuuuuuurgh. You ask what I would do, I tell you, and you make something up.
This is no fun!
Sorry, Oz, I don’t mean to make things up.
Perhaps you’re not expressing yourself clearly enough (alternatively, I’m just not understanding, that happens too).
Just as you often tell me you’re not there to answer my questions, I COULD tell you that I’m not here to make sure you have fun.
It suits the government’s agenda to get the ETS legislation through soon because that is what they promised to do, that is what the voters want, that is what the helps push other countries at Copenhagen and that is what the Earth needs.
Oz, I have no idea what your 327 and 328 mean. If Turnbull votes against the CPRS bill, it will be defeated, and we will then have no scheme at all, and will have no influence at Copenhagen. That’s why the acid is on Turnbull.
Oz,
I only like debating with people who have a genuine open mind. You are clearly locked in to supporting the Greens’ policy of political irrelevance on the ETS legislation. So, I have given up trying to have a sensible debate with you.
Official confirmation of Henderson winning Lib pre selection for Corangamite.
http://www.geelongadvertiser.com.au/article/2009/06/15/78185_news.html
There are many Greens policies I agree with, but they need to do some serious work on their politics. The only truly viable “green solution” I’ve ever seen is lime cordial.
Uhoh the three stooges are all out.
=(
Pick one. Even Kyoto.
The vast majority of countries didn’t have any legislation, or even legislation on the table, prior to the negotiations. Yet a deal was negotiated and afterwards countries worked on their own domestic policies to tie into Kyoto, ratified it, and then implemented them. Even countries that had extremely weak environment policies, like Australia, were succesful in implementing clauses that served their own interests.
Your premise is a joke and a fantasy of Penny Wong’s, it has no connection with reality.
Of course it would be *good* to have strong targets and mechanisms for reaching them in place prior to the negotiation, but this is not what the government is proposing and nor is it necessary.
You hadn’t noticed that I stopped bothering to seriously debate with you ages ago?
Except for the two biggest emitters in the world, making up 40%
Oz,
Just as I suspected, your mind is so open, you can see straight through.
China did ratify Kyoto and did implement policies to redude GHG emissions.
The US never ratified it, which was sad.
The treaty itself wasn’t particularly great, but that wasn’t because of a lack of pre-negotiation legislation, but because no one really cared and there wasn’t that much political momentum at the point in time. And anyway, Kyoto was just a recent and relevant example.
The idea was to show that Wong’s spin is merely that.
Blah, the committee reports into the CPRS aren’t being tabled till later on this afternoon.
In the words of Gusface, name names!
If I’m part of a club, I want to know about it!
When they start publishing photos like these of struggling political leaders, then you know the beginning of the end is not far away.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/houserules/index.php/theaustralian/comments/almost_a_latham_moment/
Delaying our stance on ETS until after Copenhagen makes common sense.
The closer we get to Copenhagen, the more wide-spread this view will be.
Essential’s polling on this point is helpful. It’s just about the only question where I have seen the Libs view get more than 50% of respondants
Squiggle,
Does Malcolm really want a DD?
I don`t care whether Turnbull wants one. Bring it on. A Green Senator in every mainland state and two in Tasmania. Every non-WA Green would be delighted.
Mr. Squiggle: I think you’ll find the Green vote fairly strong out that way, especially in the surf coast/Geelong parts of that electorate. An unknown candidate for Surf Coast Shire Council romped in basically on the basis that he was an endorsed Green last election. It’s probably likely to go up in the future too; the Greens have never run great campaigns down that way, and there’s a couple of elections where I haven’t even voted for their candidate because they’ve run real duds.
Every non-WA Green would be delighted.
Eh?
GG,
A DD is a chance to lower the Rudd majority.
If the DD election is on the back of waiting a mere 6 months until Copenhagen (or even less when its been through both houses twice), I think that would translate into some swinging voters moving back to the coalition.
Oh please. As a developing nation they were exempted from any GHG limits. Their emissions have more than doubled since Kyoto.
Rebecca #349
I agree…what’s more, at the last election there was a Democrat that got more than 1% of the vote.
The Greens could reasonably expect to pick up most of that.
350
WA has two Green senators. A DD is more likely to deliver a Green senator from WA. The Greens would have to do well on primary and preferences to get a second senator in WA. A single quota is 7.69% the Greens would have to achieve this on primaries and have a significant surplus to get a second senator in each state and this is unlikely outside Tasmania where the Greens may get the second seat on primaries.
Nevertheless they ratified it and implemented policies to meet their committments (which were virtually nonexistant), contrary to what you suggested.
Kyoto was a bad deal, I said that already. It failed because it wasn’t strong enough (due to reasons previously explained) and because developed countries didn’t even meet the targets they said they would. It had nothing to do with legislating prior to the negotiation.
Squiggle,
The Libs are broke.
Labor is well ahead in the published polls.
The Libs internally are in turmoil.
A DD election will significanly reduce the Lib Nat number of Senators.
It is likely that an ETS bill after the election will be be far stronger than what is on offer atm.
There is a good chance that labor will increase its majority in the lower House.
DD. Bring it on!
356
I agree with you for once.
They ratified it because they didn’t have to do anything
So if there had been legislation prior to the negotiation you think it would have ended up exactly the same? How exactly?
GG – we agree – bring it on!!!
1) Australian voters have traditionally taken a dim view of DD elections as opportunistic – ( eg hawke in 84)
2) A chunk of the “its time” factor that kicked out Howard will be ready to move back.
I’m not saying the Coalition would win, but the ALP majority would come back a bit.
has anyone seen a photo of Sarah henderson?
I can’t remember what she looks like
Do the Greens supporters on this blog approve of this behaviour by “radical” Greenie operatives?
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25635805-661,00.html
What’s this about Costello not renominating? Anyone know?
Annabelle Crab tweeted that Costello is NOT renominating.
oooooo the intrigue
Mr Squiggle – 1984 was not a Double Dissolution. 1984 was an early election. 1987 was an early Double Dissolution and the government was returned in bad economic times, thanks mainly due to the chaotic state of the opposition.
Turnbull does not want a DD, since it would bring his brilliant political career to a sudden end. The CPRS bill is the only one on which there is a real chance that Rudd would spring a DD on Turnbull. Therefore Turnbull will pass the CPRS bill. QED.
Except for the fact that there is no Howard to move back to. It was amazing how he kept in Government, because I met very few people that would admit to voting for him. I think that now the Howard factor is gone, The Libs are in trouble at the poll by a further 1.5 – 2 %.
Tom.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/former-liberal-treasurer-peter-costello-wont-contest-another-election-20090615-c84x.html
There ya have it.
ZOMG
Possum,
It’s in The Age. So, it must be true.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/former-liberal-treasurer-peter-costello-wont-contest-another-election-20090615-c84x.html
Former Liberal treasurer Peter Costello won’t contest another electionJune 15, 2009 – 1:51PM
Former federal Liberal treasurer Peter Costello will not contest the next federal election.
More to come
359
I doubt that the Liberals are going to increase their vote share and seats because of
The people who were scarred away from voting Labor in the last few weeks will now be Labor as will the always vote for the government, whoever they are, brigade
Sophomore surges with most of the new ALP members
The Libs are now in a mess
But the Greens may increase their vote because of the people who thought that voting Green would reduce the ability to get Howard out will now be more likely to vote Green and the people disgusted at the right-wingness of the Rudd government.
What a weakie.
Costello’s homepage announcement
http://www.petercostello.com.au/press/costello-announces-he-will-not-renominate
What a wealth of detail! So who’ll lead the Libs after the next election loss? There’ll be some phonelines running hot in Liberal offices today.
Nope.
Costello. A coward till the end.
Thansk Anthony #364 – my bad
My point should have been and early election (whether DD triggered or just premature electioneering) would push some voters away from the ALP
One wonders why he’s bothered hanging on so long then…
Holy crap!!!
Cossie is out!!!!!
c’mon, ltep, he had a book to write.
The member for wentworth on the member for higgins. And he starts with a stuff up.
361
Violence is wrong and the ELF threats should be dealt with with the full force of the law but the non-violent opstruction of illegitimate activities like burning coal is legitimate.
I wonder if it was the latest GDP figures that did it? hahaha
No we’ll get that Institute of Public Affairs tosser.
If there is a DD on the CPRS bill, there will be a swing from Green to Labor, because then the choice will be between (a) voting Labor to do something about CC and (b) voting Liberal or Green to do nothing about CC.
Turnbull is orating about Costello
WOW! Costello makes one final gesture of gutlessness by failing to ever lead an Australian political party.
Turnbull just mislead the House, he said that Australia had “no debt at all” after Costello ended his time as treasurer, this is wrong.
Anyone who sees the “b” in obstruction as a “p” needs their eyes tested.
ltep,
Couldn’t get a job.
Sad to hear Costello’s announcement. Was really relishing the prospect of him “taking over” the leadership, to be dealt the thrashing of his life by Labor. Damn, he’s shirked it again!
Turnbull showering Costello with compliments. He can afford to now.
Malcolm Turnbull is doing the “I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.” bit in the HoR.
I will be getting my first new local member in a long time.
Turnbull like the cat who got the cream – look at the grin !
howard’s plan to stop costello HAS worked. At great damage to the libs
It’s even worse this time Squiggle. In 1984, the 1983 Double Dissolution meant that Hawke had to have a Senate election, so he had a House election at the same time. In 1974 when Whitlam had an early election, a double dissolution as it turned out, it was because he had to have a Senate election because one was due, the House and senate being out of sync at the time.
That’s why some of the predictions by commentators that Rudd would have an early election just like Hawke and Whitlam were just so badly informed. Hawke and Whitlam were constitutionally –required– to hold a Senate election so had a House election at the same time. Rudd is constitutionally –prevented– from having a half-Senate election so the situation is nothing like Hawke and Whitlam’s early election.
Despite the huff and puff over a double dissolution, I don’t see any sign of one happening.
Who will replace Turnbull, after he looses the election (and maybe even Wentworth), now?
Hockey.
So how many’s Rudd taken out now… Costello, Vaille, Downer, Howard, Brough …
A DD just got allot more likely. MT was always going to lose the next election. Now he can lose it, but (potentially) keep the leadership.
YOO HOO ……. Cossie gone like yesterday’s newspaper
…… LOVE IT 
….
dave said:
I bet this is the angle the MSM will spin: Victory for Turnbull! Somewhat Pyrrhic.
We could probably take his chickening out as clear sign he believes they’ve little chance at the next election.
What a disappointment! Costello has ruined everything for politics junkies.
Where’s Bree?
Ew, statement on indulgence.
Precisely.
Turnbull’s comments were rather strange. He quoted Costello’s praise of free markets, even though this year we keep being reminded about how Costello set up APRA – i.e. a market regulator.
Costello just praised Hawke and Keating, who were many things, but not socialists.
Why would a DD be more likely now!!! The only way the government can get a double dissolution is if the opposition gives them the trigger. It’s not in the government’s hands to call a double diddolution until the Opposition gives them a trigger. So if today makes it more likely the Coalition would lose an early election, it would make it less likely one would occur.
“The Parliament is an institution that should be preserved.” Well, duh. Maybe Costello can become a professor of philosophy now.
Being groomed for Pre-Selection in Higgins, but it could’ve been worse – Costello only got Higgins because their original choice Glenn Wheatley was involved in some major financial problems with a certain Melbourne Nightclub and later was declared Bankrupt – and yes it is all documented in his Autobiography Paper Paradise – including the behind the scenes machinations of the Victorian Liberal Machine.
Wow, where’s Turnbull’s question about Rudd’s ute?
Somehow I wouldn’t be surprised to hear more questions to Joel Fitz today.
We shall see.
A song for Cossie, he’s been trying to do this for a long time. he’s finally plucked up the courage to do it, good for him and his family:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hMrY8jysdg
#410
Only ministers get questions.
If six Liberal Senators or less vote other than against the CPRS bill then it is unlikely to get up because I do not see the cross bench voting for it.
Is that Cossie doing the Vacuming ?
Here’s a great story.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25638167-5005962,00.html
We need seven Lib Senators to pass the CPRS if the Nat-Green-FF Alliance vote against it, as it seems they will. I think we will get that, because Turnbull cannot risk giving Rudd a DD trigger.
Where are gp and glenn, on such an auspicious occasion ? opening a vein to two ?
howard will have the grange out tonight. The lib old guard all but gone now. Abbott about the last of the heavy hitters left. And he is basically out in the cold.
416
Yes but that 7 includes abstainers.
Is it possible the Coalition will use the shambles option? You know, some vote for, some vote against, some abstain, some hide in the toilets?
Quite possible.
A brilliant question from Le Grand Fromage de Corangamite.
Have the Member for Bass and Member for Petrie been relegated to the B Class seat behind the PM?
Where were you when a decision about the CPRS was needed?
Libs: Hiding in a toilet.
Yep. But not yet. Second time around in order to avoid DD and a flogging.
They will also be hoping unemployment and the economy worsens before an election within the normal timeframe. Labor would then need to bring down another budget if a DD does not eventuate.
Finns,
The Government is rotating the marginal seat members to give them more prominence and publicity.
Let’s assume that the Libs and MT believe that they are going to lose the next election.
MT also may believe that heavy loss is is in the long-term interests of the party. The main negative of MT is the personal political price he would have to pay (the leadership).
He could judge that this is less likely (as there is no obvious alternative). An election loss now(ish) would also mean that the forces that are out to knife him do not have time to seriously mount a challenge.
So if and when the DD trigger legislation is put up, MT might think “If it were done, when ’tis done, then ‘twer well, It were done quickly”.
There will be no such thing at the next DD
426
Tanner!
425
If a DD were held before the next budget then I think that there maybe an outside chance he may loose Wentworth.
Swanie in great form again. libs seem flat today. So far anyway.
Jenkins – “the member for Sturt will wait quietly”
rotfl …..
he doesn’t know how
True. But I think MT would accept that risk. All or nothing.
Gillard is giving The Australian a caning over their lies on schools funding.
#428
There will be an outside chance of losing Wentworth at the next election whether its called early or after a full three year term.
and MT going back to recycle 2 week old questions ….. sheessshhh
If a DD trigger is provided to the government will the redistribution process be completed in time for a March or April election?
I think this is a great day for the Labor Party and us the supporters.
1. The good news on the economy of the last two weeks.
2. The announcement that Peter Costello is quitting.
I proclaim that The Labor Party has assumed the mantle of the “superior economy manager” over the Liberal Party. Peter Costello has seen the revelation and conceded by retiring.
This battle has been won and let go and win the war.
Musrem, turkey’s don’t vote for an early christmas and oppositions don’t vote to be thrashed this year when there is still hope of doing better next year. The only way the government can get a double dissolution is if the opposition gives it to them. If you think Turnbull would view an early election are a useful way to clear out his backbench, then I think that the backbench might decide a clean out of the leadership and another year in parliament is an even better idea.
Does turnbull have something on rudd regarding the car dealer ? or is he just fishing ?
Good analogy.
Fishing.
Good on Julia for destroying The Oz
Lying fascist bastards
Christian Kerr ramps up the “media wars”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25635145-7582,00.html
Come on everyone, give up on double dissolutions!
(1) The government can only have if the opposition give them one
(2) If the government has a DD trigger early next year, it won’t use it before July 1 as to hold a DD before July 1 would see all Senate terms backdated to 1 July 2009, meaning the government would need a half Senate by May 2012. i.e. A two year term. Why hold an election at a time when you lose a year off your term when you can wait till after 1 July and get a full term?
And all that assumes they get a DD trigger. If they do get a trigger, look at July to Sept 2010, not any earlier. The last legal date for a DD election is 16 October, and I’de be surprised if the government went after that date as it is only 6 weeks before the Victorian election.
#438
Well, his last question to Rudd about standing by a previous answer at least has the appearance that he has something.
Antony
new experience for you, surely, being part of a baying pack?
Thanks Anthony I did not realise that a half-senate would be due by May 2012 if DD held before July 1 2010. Certainly makes a DD less attractive.
Oz, thanks for that link to Kerr’s article. I thought his description of the PB commentariat was delightful.
The “Schools ‘Debacle’” gets a question from Pyne.
The OO must be swelling with pride.
We’ve been bagging out The Australian for so long I guess it was only a matter of time before they hit back.
If he had something, Pyne wouldn’t be asking questions on schools right now
tweet from Wil Anderson:
hahahahahah
It shaping up to be a great week….
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25636327-5013404,00.html
How more to jump ship this week….
There is no chance Turnbull will give Labor a DD on the CPRS. Especially now the Right’s most likely horse is no longer running in the race.
The Libs will support some form of CPRS (determined after some horse-trading, no doubt) in the Senate. As Psephos has noted a number of times, it’s in both Turnbull’s and Rudd’s interests to make this happen. So they will make it happen.
Sure, the Nats will vote against it, and 5-10 Libs will cross the floor or go to the toilet. But it will get through comfortably enough.
costello is updating the book. Wonder if he will be more candid on a range of matters now he is leaving parliament.
Has Andrew Robb got rabies or something? He looks very lonely on the front bench.
Looking forward to Newspoll tonight for more baying…….
442
Technically the government only needs half the votes in the Senate against the bill the second time to get a DD trigger. The GG and voters might be a little cynical if that half included too many government Senators. The government Senators are too spineless to stand up in Parliament and vote for stronger targets.
When does his first column in the Fin Review come out?
Kerr is right to an extent about the ‘blogosphere’.
Most ‘bloggers’ do not provide any new material. They analyse and react to what comes out of the ‘old’ media, providing a differing perspective (or in the case of polling, actual analysis). Blogs are general reactive (in the sense they do not control, or influence, the media cycle or the information forthcoming from it). Gathering the information is the strength of the old media. They would be better served if they focused on it.
We would be better served if old media did not just make stuff up.
Bye bye Pyne
The important thing is to get started, the targets can be argued over later.
Oz, I think that is a pretty easy message to sell, don’t you; and if labor can sell it the Greens lose big time, it really is that simple.
Combets first question
With costello out the door…who do coalition members who do not support turnbull, support now in the leadership stakes ?
461
The low targets are not the only problem with this scheme. The massive amount of free permits and subsidies to polluters.
Now Turnbull’s authority is unchallenged, will he start kicking butt in the party?
I didn’t get a response to this when I said it before, so I’ll say it again. *If* we have a an election at which the main issue is the CPRS, whether it is a DD or not, there will be a swing from Greens to Labor. This will be because the choice will then be between (a) Labor and doing something about climate change, and (b) the Liberals and the Greens and not doing anything. The Greens will not able to argue “Oh but we want to do more,” because everyone will know that that option is no longer open. People will vote for the CPRS (Labor) or against it (everyone else). Since most voters want action on climate change, Labor will gain votes from everyone else.
Interesting to see Costello has finally signed the document of unconditional surrender, perhaps his most courageous act in Parliament:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/15/2598610.htm
I love this quote from the ABC version of the story:
“At times it seemed the public did not warm to Mr Costello’s personality, his “smirk” often being cited as a sign of perceived arrogance.”
Perhaps it was a smirk of humility?
Anyway, it secures Turnbull’s leadership, so Rudd and Swan are bound to be having a beer to celebrate that tonight.
Bushfire Bill @465, Turnbull doesn’t know how
Do you really think so? Costello was keeping the leadership aspirations of the anyone but Turnbull faction under control. It will be a feeding frenzy now.
Tuckey is an idiot ……
Hahaha, Bishop asks Combet to table his speech as he read from it, then one ALP backbencher yells out “at least it was in his own words!”
Love it
Tuckey gone too
466
You are crazy if you think that voting against the low target, free permit and polluter subsidising CPRS will be seen as bad for the Greens by most. The Greens will be good at arguing for higher targets and they will be in a better position to negotiate them with Labor after the election.
Likes of wilson tuckey, bronnie bishop etc have nothing to lose by decenting. Also
the victorians are not likely to take fondly to another nsw lib “taking their turn” as leader. They seem to think victoria “owns” the lib leadership – and fully expected costello to bide his time and become leader, PM etc.
For sure many journos who longed for costello to be PM will be in mourning and hitting the sauce tonight.
Exactly what planet are you from, Tom?
474
More senators and they will be able to pass bills through the Senate with only Labor. That is a better position.
Surprisingly impressed with Marn Ferson. I understood every word he said, he was quite funny and actually answered the question.
Tom
The urgent thing now is to get a scheme up and running which is capable of delivering big emission cuts in the medium term 2021 -2050. Up until 2020 we will be busy with all sorts of teething problems (including getting agriculture in and meshing the schemes across the world). If some investors in dirty processes don’t lose as much money as they should in the transition then I don’t think that is such a heavy price to pay for saving the world.
I think that the hard thing about tackling climate change is actually the politics of the next few years as we are stuck with all sorts of scare campaigns being started by the minority of industries who will have to make big changes over the coming decades. So a bit of cash is going to be needed to get past them.
I think that changing the world is going to fairly painless once we have a global ETS in place.
If we are still mucking around with putting a scheme in place in 2014 then the future is not going to be so nice.
A recent poll (think it was Essential) showed that 49% of Greens supporters were in favour of the government’s position. The rest were split, so that 49% was the majority position.
So do I conclude that 49% of Greens supporters are crazy?
49% is a plurality not a majority.
What was the sample size?
Not a good time for costello to be looking for a job. He just ran out of rope.
Did I hear someone say “draft howard !” Would not be surprised to see such a call in the coming days.
According to Slade they are
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gPulu85q04
But would her Ladyship Janette agree to move to Melbourne though ?
Enough not or semi-relevant Youtube music videos!
Could the posting of large numbers of such things be banned please?
I’m sure he’ll get by.
the member for mayo displayed further evidence he is an ex-young lib idiot.
Cuppa Rudd didnt take out Costello, Costello took out himself.
I only hope we get a good candidate in Higgins and not a Party Hack…
Gonna get some good new MPs after the next election
Henderson, Jason Frydenberg, whoever gets Costello’s seat… things arent looking too bad for the long haul…
Hockey or Dutton to lead us after the next election…then maybe Hunt or Billson…
Diddums, sometimes these clips describe more than words some of the more outlandiosh comments from people here – especial;ly from Greens.
You lot are a bunch of sensitive little petals.
Milne hasn’t done an article yet has he? It will be worth the wait.
Wasn`t Costello in Parliament before that MP retired at 38 or so and caused a scandal, because he gets a pension for life? If so the Costello doesn`t even need to be 55 to get a pension for life.
Frank
To be fair – the Greens love things to be banned.
Mr Bolt is terribly displeased that Tip is leaving. He made the first comment last year
And in fairness to Bolt, he is sticking with that opinion. Everyone will play nicely today and say nice things about Cossie but his legacy is very ordinary with the people who admire him the most.
They’d ban themselves if it were to their political advantage
487
Your posting of such irrelevant and semi-relevant clips, on many subjects, have been annoying me for a while now.
To quote a fellow Green.
Suck It Up Princess
Hockey hasn’t got the ticker or ability. He is my local member. He got a lucky break when other potential lib candidates thought ted mack was re-standing.
Dutton is a walking accident looking for somewhere to happen. Needs a safer seat to even stay in the parliament.
hunt…rhymes with…… Too much like a school boy.
You may be right but doubt it
492
The Greens do get a lot of the cynical anti-establishment vote.
But seriously, if you do not like it – DON’T Click on them – others enjoy them. But is it more to the point that they struck a raw nerve with you ?
Funny how people like Costello quit politics and yet Bronnie and Wilson T havent got the gumption to quit too.
CLEAN OUT THE LIBS!
495
blunt and punt
Bronwyn Bishop should be the Libs Youth spokesperson and Tuckey the Foreign and Aboriginal Affairs spokes person.
Oh and Barnaby the Urban Affairs and Multiculturalism spokesperson.
Another way of looking at the costello announcement is that he has just formalised what in fact has been in place since the 2007 election.
The ball is in turnbulls court, but remains to be seen if the party will really get behing him (apart from to knife him)
Never a dull moment.
And costello leaves like a pussy. Will be many many disappointed party faithful – and his followers in the msm.
behing = behind
Now who`s smirking.
Zoomster @3:
“The point with the American primaries is that they’re electing a President, not a local member. ”
In the US there are primaries even for candidates in local races (county, state) as well as for congressional seats.
But in the context of the National Party, it makes no difference. The party is the walking dead. Primaries won’t save them.
So, I wonder what the Great Australian Public will think? Now that there’s no chance whatsoever of a Costello Comeback, will large numbers of them throw in their lot with Rudd? To think of all the time wasted on that man Costello. Not a rooster after all. Just a chicken.
AS for Peter Dutton being the next leader… wasn’t he the one the other day who said there’d be an election before next and that Rudd would most likely lose ? and if Rudd didn’t lose then Gillard would stab him in the back anyway?
Someone so seriously unhinged as that is not foreman material.
Geessshh, Kakura, I’ve already apologised for that error. Is it going to haunt me for the rest of this thread??
“beofre next” = “before next May”.
Maybe. But the turkey analogy doesn’t really fit. It is more like a herd of sheep that are on the run from a a pack of wolves. There may be some poor sheep at the edge of the group (in marginals), some old and sick (retiring), but most will survive, and after the slaughter, they have some new opportunities opening up in the flock.
The alpha ram would be quiet prepare to unleash the puppies of mutton if only to experience the vicarious joy of hearing that awful beating noise from the far reaches of the backbench finally fall silent.
Costello for 7:30 Report tonight???
Someone must finally have designed a hammock that allows you work from home.
#483, Obviously, you are Tom the worst and least musical. Maybe the sound of mucus is more suitable for you.
BB
The fact is that I don’t think even the Liberals believe they have anyone in parliament now who is fit to be PM. Deep down they know it, whether they admit it or not. It reminds me of the conservative vacuum in England after Thatcher left.
In both cases, years of weeding out any people with ideological differences also meant weeding out anyone with the courage to speak up for a principle or position that was different to the status quo. Yet now that their old policy positions are obsolete that is precisely what they need.
Anyone else think this poll is completely ridiculous?
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4388/
Nice one Roy. No wonder he’s losing his newspaper market niche.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/roy-morgan-may-lose-its-newspaper-data-niche-20090610-c3o8.html
Another one on unemployment:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4389/
Finns
Perhaps a clip of Cat Stevens “Father and Son”, with photos of Howard for the father figure, and Costello for the son’s part:
“I know, I have to go away.”
Glen at #498 is right, clean out the Libs.
I’m not sure Costello leaving will solve anything. Turnbull will be more secure as leader, that’s true, but if he tries to impose his will on the party it may lead to even more problems. Unhappy backbenchers with an axe to grind and nothing to lose may become more disloyal.
I think the underlying problem in the Liberal Party is the same one that plagued Australian soccer for generations – state empires run by little “emperors”. It will take a clean out from a Federal level just like with the soccer, before the Libs can regain their feet. And the relationship with the Nats complicates it even more.
Currently, they look like a train wreck waiting to happen.
Someone agrees with me about who should meet with Fielding. Wong and Sackett have added an expert in climate change, Professor Will Steffen who is Executive Director of the ANU Climate Change Institute.
See, I wasn’t so dumb after all.
Peter Costello was the great white hope of the Opp. when comes to economic management, especially if the Rudd Govt stumbles and crumbles on this matter. He was a ready made go to man with the credential to hit the Rudd Govt hard.
But now he has meekly, tail between his leg, conceded defeat and said to the Opp.: “screw you”.
Even if the Rudd Govt stumbles now on economic matters, there is nobody in the Opp. with the kind of economic credential to hit the Rudd Govt with.
Finns we’ve got Coonan
lol
Soc, you mean like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtKs5zp9CCc
Glen, i like you more AND MORE :COOL: :COOL:
Rudd took him out with the Rudd Recovery. Hammock saw the GDP figures for the March quarter and realised he wasn’t going to have the PM’ship handed to him on a platter, so he threw in the towel.
63% said The Rudd Govt is handling the economy well so said the Essential Research. No wonder Cossie has mildly, meekly and unconditionally surrendered.
No mention of the ALP v Rabble TPP from essential media on Sky News.
So I guess it is bad news for the rabble.
‘Rudd Recovery’ wouldnt have been possible without Costello’s hard work Dario…
Sure Costello might not recontest Higgins in the preselection. But considering his burning hot ambition to wait for being PM to fall in to his lap, there’s nothing to stop Costello winning another seat in a by-election prior to the next election to “save the country from Labor’s debt and deficit”. Just look at what happened with Olsen and Brown in SA. There’d have to be a by-election for Higgins if that happened however. Or he could take the place of a Senator who resigns prior to the election.
Long shots but I wouldn’t rule it out when it comes to Costello.
Dario
I think that is pretty right. Costello knows enough to know that from here we will have at most one more flat quarter, then probably improvement. I guess he doesn’t want to still be in parliament when that happens.
Costello is going to work for the World Bank – no comeback bob.
I would. Costello didn’t take the easy way to the leadership and has never taken the hard option for anything.
Glen
Fortunately for Costello, Glen Stevens and Ken Henry will never be allowed to comment publically on “Costello’s hard work”.
Musrem, absolute tripe. Your analogy makes no sense as the opposition is trying to defer consideration of the CPRS bill to avoid giving the Government a double dissolution trigger. That’s not the behaviour of an opposition leader who’s decided he might as well lose now to clear out deadwood.
526
You’ve got to be joking. He’s yesterday’s news – well, after tomorrow he’s yesterday’s news – gone forever. The great Liberal hope has proved that he is the great Liberal dope.The man who basically lacked the gumption to express his opinions within and without the party room all so that he could secure the best seat on the bus.
Any suggestion he might make rise again through the Senate is crazy talk.
532
should read
might rise again..
Socrates –
They won’t but Saul Eslake has already told us he was a lazy so and so.
Anybody got the Essential figures. Must be OK for Labor because Spiers didn’t mention it on Sky
Being leader and being PM are two different things. Anyone who takes the leadership after their party loses government is an idiot.
Now Costello…
Hopefully,
Tuckey
Andrews
Ruddock
B. Bishop
Somalay
et al
Glen
Add Slipper to that list.
What’s really going to stick in the craw of Liberals is the fact that Costello not recontesting Higgins is a loud endorsement of Rudd’s economic policies. Costello never gave a definite 100% no i don’t ever want the leadership answer, he always left the door open. He was waiting for the recession to really bite and for Australia to collapse, coupled with the fact his ideology made him think Australia would be ruined by Rudd’s policies.
Well, we now have basically all western democracies engaging in the stimulus packages Rudd has used, and we’ve just avoided going in to recession with a quarter of economic growth, when all other western democracies have gone backward.
Costello’s plan for cruising to the PM’s seat in parliament has been well and truly thwarted, he knows he can’t get to the PM’s seat at the next election, so he’s thrown in the towel.
So who will be the next Liberal PM? Like Labor in their first term in opposition, I bet he isn’t even in parliament yet. 13 years of Labor government before Howard, 13 years of Labor government after Howard.
The rusted Liberals must be so sad right now.
Gladly rua… also Shultz he’s in his 70s….im sure there are more but that is a start and if even half of them are good candidates and arent hacks we’ve got something to build towards…
I wonder if Costello will be the Liberals’ new “Best Liberal Prime Minister Australia never had”…?
At anytime this term Cossie could have taken over the leadership.
So he’d be have the goolies to take over the opposition leadership as long as it doesn’t lead to PM?
Turnbull has only one job to do until the next election – try to keep any loss of seats to a minimum.
If he can keep the status quo or gain a seat or two he may scrape in as leader. If he loses seats he is toast.
My bet is toast.
Loved Julie giving the OO heaps today – serves them right for believing Pyne’s stories.
And now the American Embassy and Woolcott are giving it to Norington for his article about Obama junking Rudd’s Asia Pacific Plan.
The Embassy has written a letter to the editor today – great. The OO is becoming more and more like a spinning machine.
Yes but he wanted it to fall in to his lap, after Australia fell in to an economic hole. But it didn’t happen.
It’s best to do what Rudd did and take over the leadership a year or so out from an election. Costello was hoping a year out (or even 6 months) that the economy would be in ruin. He can see it won’t happen.
Malcolm Farr…………
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/big_smiles_as_cossie_gives_them_what_they_want/
Remember, no first term government in Australia has ever increased their number of seats at their first re-election.
543 – sorry, meant Julia. Julie B was her usual self – uninteresting except when Julia gave her serve too about the money given to Schools which were closing almost immediately. Bit of an explosion by the poor Julie B for awhile.
Yet.
BH remember that Fry will take over her job when he’s the new member for Kooyong.
Fair shake of the sauce bottle. Newspoll has Labor at 55-45, who knows how much more shine there is to lose, and the polls always narrow at election time.
That’s not a law or a rule to be followed, that’s a history lesson.
Glen and Rua
I second that on Peter Slipper. I lived in his electorate once years ago, and didn’t even realise he was my local member until I had to deal with him through work. He did very little locally; a very safe seat and he knew he didn’t have to work on it.
They could at least narrow a couple of points from now until then Rua…i dont expect Malcolm to win the next election but i think we’ll pick up seats…
What hard work would that be Glen?
I don’t. At best he will maintain the status quo (err cue Frank).
One good piece of news out of Costello’s retirement
Maybe his hagiographer, Glen Milne, will lose some of his status in mainstream media
Too funny.
I’m still laughing.
Whose seat is Fry taking over Glen – I’m not quite with that one.
Is it Newspoll at 54-45 or Essential?
How many first term Govts. have we had in the last 50 years? How many Govts. have had a global recession this early in their first term?
How many Govts. have had such a rabble as an opposition.
The only Status Quo song relevant to Cossie: Pictures of Matchstick Men.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1cJFIGHkJA
Fry is taking Petro’s seat of Kooyong most likely when they vote on it this coming weekend…
remember that original comment came from someone who prefers the Greens to Labor, so I wouldn’t take his opinons with no greater authority than an ALP’ers, as we al know he is secretly wants Rudd to be punished over the ETS.
It’s not much of a secret!
Frank can you imagine the crowing from Dave, Tom and Oz if the Greens did (which they wont) win Melbourne or Sydney?
But it’s so much more relevant when you hear it being played off vinyl A forgotten piece of technology, rather like what Costelo will be after the election
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pP2HK7o0_eE
All of them?
I think Rudd’s ETS is the best, and the middle ground. The Greens’ ETS goes too far.
The Wall St Crash happened just after Jim Scullin became PM in October 1929. The Scullin Government followed the orthodox conservative advice and cut spending rather than borrowing to run a deficit, as did governments in the US, UK and Germany. The result was an economic catastrophe, the ALP split into three factions (Scullin, Lyons and Lang), and the government fell in late 1931 when both groups crossed the floor. This history is *not* repeating itself this time. The Opposition is still running with the policies of 1929, but the ALP and the economics profession have moved on.
And why are you playing the man rather than the ball?
I said “the original poster” you were not mentioned by name
But that’s ok, it seems when the shoe is on the other foot….
Bob,
Playing the political field with the ambiguity of Billy Hughes I see. You seem deftly skilled at slagging all sides with alacrity. So, you are unlikely to be trusted by any.
In short, you are seen as amphibious.
Although I don’t want to get my hopes up too high, the same (’no first term government has increased its majority at the next election’) was said about Bracks.
The ALP believed this so strongly that they had Ministers out doorknocking seats which Labor won comfortably.
I would also remind posters that we were continually told, leading up to 2007, that no party had ever picked up 16 seats in one hit.
Again, Rudd did this comfortably.
564
The Liberals will come third in Melbourne. Probably will in Granydler and possibly in Sydney. It would be a big surprise (but a good surprise) if the Greens won Sydney of Grayndler and they are probably not the favourites for Melbourne but the margin is only 4.71% and bigger margins have not always protected seats.
He was replying to me. Whether you mentioned my name or not you were referring to me. I note you skimmed past my endorsement of Labor’s ETS over the Greens’
Debate by cliche is getting so very old…
Here are some excerpts from an article in today’s Crikey which refutes the demonisation of unions in the building industry and the need for coercive powers to be retained in the industry.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/15/why-the-building-industry-needs-a-history-lesson/
I’m not an MP. I’m free to have a political mind and not be rusted to thinking one party has all the answers and that they’re always correct.
Zoomster @ 571
What sort of swing do you think Labor can get at the next election?
WTFOMGBBQ?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/peter-costello-to-quit-politics-20090615-c851.html
Peter Costello to quit politics
someone punch me, he..decided on something?
bob,
Indeed you are. But don’t expect anyone to take you seriously.
If you think you speak for everyone except for the anti-Green Laborites, you have a very big head.
Tom tfab
I am a Canberra Raiders fanatic – IF they win every game they will make the eight, IF they win every semi they will be in the Grand Final. IF they win the GF they will be Premiers.
Do I think this will really happen? Of course not.
I wish the Greens would stop treating politics as a footy season and grow some political nous.
So one needs to be a party hack to be taken seriously? Makes sense to me.
Couldn’t have put it better.
Psephos,
Only one portion of the economic fraternity would agree with your simplistic views on ALP economics, or your view that Coalition’s policies are 1929 circa.
for example, this is from the Wikipedia page on the great depression
“Together, government and business actually spent more in the first half of 1930 than in the corresponding period of the previous year. ….”In early 1930, credit was ample and available at low rates, but people were reluctant to add new debt by borrowing.”
I could write an essay on why you are wrong, but I gave up doing that when I finished post graduate studies in economics
Maxine
I’m notoriously bad at predictions, being an over optimistic type. I always sound convincing, though, and thus even fool myself.
Still, I would predict a swing of about 4%.
This is basically a figure pulled out of thin air, with these vague but undefinable justifications:
1. There was a Narrowing in the last weeks before the 2007 election, based on nervous nellies going back to the devil they knew. This time, the devil they know is Rudd. That’s worth about 2%.
2. The Libs are complete twits. They are unlikely to diminish in twittiness between now and the election – they don’t have the money, the policies, the unity or the talent. At least 2%.
3. The ‘names’ are bailing ship. That’s sure to be worth something, especially in their own seats where ‘name recognition’ is important. A big name bailing out always creates the potential that voters will consider going somewhere else. Some voters DO vote on name recognition, so the challenge will be if the candidates in those seats can build up enough of a profile. It’ll be worth 2%, but only in those seats, which by and large are non marginal. That will help in the Senate, though.
Yes, there is a dim possibility that some lefties will leap from Labor to the Greens. However, I would expect more righties to leap from Libs to Labor.
So I’m saying 4-6% nationally but I’m always wrong.
GG doesn’t speak for me, I don’t speak for him.
bob, get over the idea that everyone who admits to being Labor have therefore been taken into a backroom somewhere and brainwashed. It’s quite possible to arrive at exactly the same location from different journeys.
As a proudly non factional Labor person who had a convincing win against the factions at Saturday’s Vic State Conference, I don’t sing from anyone’s song sheet but my own.
A 2pp of 56.7%?
LOL!
2010 will not be 1966 or 1943.
ltep and bob,
I’m doing the hacklebuck. Who wouldn’t after today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ftd6pHpp1wo
Has anyone got an average of swings against 1st term governments?
I want to load it into Anthony’s new swing-ometer
bob
thanks for your reasoned response.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=4&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
That was Bob’s tip of a 4% swing.
[Posted Monday, June 15, 2009 at 6:02 pm | Permalink
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=4&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
And not a Greens Lower House seat amongst them
But the calculator still does not have a way of translation the national swing into Labor verses Greens seat(s) properly. What ever you do the same number of seats are show to be other.
No. That is the behaviour of an opposition leader who’s own rump was very much on the line. I’m contending that with the departure of Costello the game has changed.
MT has a window where his leadership will not be seriously challenged simply because the potential challengers have yet to sort themselves out. The longer he waits, the more time they have to get it together. He *may* survive an early loss, but he will almost certainly get the neck in 18 months time. If MT plays for the long game he is basically betting his political future on the premise that the Team Liberal can turn around some really bad numbers over the course of what will (probably) be the Rudd Recovery.
It doesn’t need too because The Greens are very unlikely to win lower house seats at the next Federal election.
bob1234
Did you see QT today? The Opposition could not even bother to make an attempt to ask questions.
A couple of duds about debt – fizz
A couple about utes – fizz
Then Pyne got creamed on education
Lastly the Mayo guy about bounced reseve bank cheques.
In other words they made it up as they were going along. No strategy – just rabble. Tomorrow we will have a censure on something – yawn.
Wednesday – Ute Gate
Thursday – who knows, probably whatever the Australian headline says.
This has to be the most sad oppostion I have ever witnessed, I first watched Question Time in 1969 I have never seen such a poor demoralised bunch.
Essential is 57-43.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/06/essential-report_150609.pdf
In the immortal words of Oscar Wilde:
That’s almost as funny as your “swing away from the Greens cause Labor has picked up a 2PP swing” tripe!
Bob’s hoping Rudd does a Carpenter and the Libs will luck it into power
The latest Essential since it hasnt popped up anywhere else:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/15/essential-report-doin-it-the-oz-style/
Nope, I was at work.
What about the Hawke/Keating years? The infighting was far worse then than it is now.
Now everyone knows you’re just trolling.
Very interesting question on the ETS.
27% is more than 3X the number of people that vote Green. I don’t think they’d be scared about voting it down.
GG, what about the Huckleberry Finns???
Possum,
Bzzt.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/14/morgan-575-425-6/comment-page-12/#comment-288272
Doh – two minutes behind the time, which – let me just say – is a nice change coming from Qld.
593
There is more of a chance of a Green in Melbourne than my local MP being Labor andyet the calculator allows for the latter but not the former. (Until earlier today I would have said there is more chance of a Green in Melbourne than the smirk being wiped of my local MP`s face).
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/06/fortheoz.png
HAHA way to take the piss Possum
bob1234
During the Hawke/Keating years the Opposition had a strategy for QT – this rabble can’t even think up questions to ask.
Catchy line but no substance. I think he’s been taking a leaf or two out of Frank’s book.
No Musrem, it doesn’t work that way. The Opposition Leader has no ability to bring on a double dissolution apart from put the bullets in the gun and then hand the gun to the government for the government to use when it sees fit. All the opposition has done so far is act to defer the legislation, which is a tactic designed to deny the government a double dissolution trigger. The day that Malcolm Turnbull says that he will block the bill the first time and dare the government to go ahead with a double dissolution strategy is the day I might admit you are right. But at the point where an opposition leader does that, the clock starts ticking down for the bill to be presented a second time. That is the moment when the sort of strategy you are describing would leave a Leader totally exposed to a nervous backbench.
Oz,
I think that the Greens should support the ETS legislation because it’s the right thing to do. However, it also suits us Labor hacks to see the Greens on a self imposed limb (far from the madding crowd) as it demonstrates the uselessness of having a Party so committed to the environmental cause that they’ll vote against the only legislation that will effect positive change in that regard.
The Greens have dealt themselves out of the debate through their intransigence and inept political strategy. Why do you need a Greens Party?
Oz
The telling bit was:
Or to paraphrase 43% of Green voters want the legislation passed. Not something to campaign on?
Just turning this back on the libs. How about turnbull allowing a “conscience vote” in the senate for the second DD trigger vote and stacks the votes just enough that the CPRS gets up and DD trigger avoided.
What do you think ??
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25635145-7582,00.html
*looks in Adam’s direction*
Tom,
There is nothing to stop you designing an Greens impossableseaterorometer. You could do it very easily instead of whingeing to people who have far better things to do with their time.
It gives the appearance that the party doesn’t have a policy in relation to climate change and lacks giving industry business certainty into the future.
612
No it means that 43% are either undecided or want the bill passed. Undecideds are still likely to vote for the Greens.
Bob,
Landeryou touches up Christian Kerr all the time. I think Adam lives in Canberra.
Sure, one could create a Greens to Labor swing calculator, but that’s a bit pointless. I think Antony should add an extra option to his 2pp swing – a space to enter a Green primary %. But again that would rely on uniform swings rather than the effect of concerted campaigns in particular seats. The Greens campaign in Fremantle was something the Greens had never come close to anywhere before.
Tom’s undying devotion to the Greens and his name remind me of this classic by Big Bad Barry White
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YXGjYvdoIYE
bob,
How much you paying Antony for wasting his time. There’s a hole in the psephology market. I’m sure Bob Brown will contribute from his forests slush fund.
But which could technically give it one anyhow if the government can convince the GG that the deferment is a ‘failure to pass’.
Yes Itep, but I went through the problem with that here.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2009/06/more-on-double.html
If the opposition maintained resistance to the CPRS legislation after an election and the government was forced to a Joint Sitting, the government has to make sure that the meaning of failure to pass would survive a High Court challenge. And if the Opposition decided to let the bill through after a DD election, you have to ask why they didn’t do it before the election and avoid the election in the first place.
Deferring is the best way for the Opposition to delay the government’s ability to get an early double dissolution, as the government has to allow ‘normal’ Senate processes to apply before it can say failure to pass has occurred.
[And there is one final type of political blog: the online shit-sheet, the internet equivalent of the anonymous lies, smears and distortions that get peddled in the parties, particularly the ALP and particularly at pre-selection time.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,,25635145-7582,00.html
So which ALP hacks have been peddling the Oz online?
Tom.
Antony
My understanding (from Adam I think) was that it wasn’t subject to judicial review and that the GG’s word was final, unless the Queen stepped in somehow.
Antony, sound reasoning, but I’d imagine having lost an election probably focused around the issue the Opposition would be reluctant to block the legislation again, particularly given that the probable change to the composition could result in the Government more easily bypassing the Opposition and making the legislation even more unpalatable to their interest groups.
No it most certainly is subject to judicial review, as the legislation passed in the ‘75 joint sitting was.
Hello Bludgers, has anyone tried Antony’s new calculator with the latest Essential results? 105 to Labor, 42 to the Coalition. If this keeps up, we’ll be able to call the Opposition, both of them. Thank you, Antony.
BB,
And, most of those left would be 65 plus.
Sad day Bludger. The gift that kept on giving to the ALP, Peter Costello, is no more. Oh well I guess now we have to hope for Uncle Buck to make a charge for the leadership!
ltep
Sorry, I stuffed up. I looked it up at Antony’s site after I wrote that.
It’s just calling a DD which isn’t subject to judicial review.
BTW Does the GG have to consult the Queen to call a DD election, and can the Queen step in and overturn Bryce’s decision.
Herbert, Dickson and Bowman are certain gains for St Kev of Qld. in 2010
Diogenes, the G-G’s decision on a D-D could be injucted if it was ‘clearly’ wrong in law. If it was merely debatable, the writs would be issued, the election would be held and the joint sitting would occur without any interruption by the High Court. But the legislation could be subject to challenge after a joint sitting. All this was tested in 1974 by an array of court cases that first tried to stop the joint sitting, and the PMA case that saw one of the DD bills invalidated.
What is it with Peter Brent and The Australian (besides the fact that he occasionally writes for them).
His blog is useless. No commentary, no posts, very irregular postings (like, once every ten days), nothing much to say and full of his own obsessions with betting markets, uselss predictions (usually wrong) and, of course, himself. Yet he is described as “the best”, while the other blogs – like this one – who garner thousands of posts are lumped in with “the smaller blogs”.
This is a setup.
Sure Poll Bludger gets into arcane navel gazing of the most obsessive compulsive line at times (especially when Willam is away), the odd flame war and so on, but some of the comments and the commenters are well worth reading, and entertaining as well.
What I love about the article is that Kerr’s blog piece is that while lambasting bloggers who rarely break news (and how many bloggers actually do break news… about 0.01% of them I’d say, worldwide), he is one of the principal offenders when it comes to opinionation. Whatever comes into his empty head in the morning ends up splurged all over The Australian that afternoon.
Except he gets paid for it (and Christ knows why, he’s so predictable).
The question remains – Do they libs want to hand labor a DD trigger ? Lets see what their tickers are like. We will know by the end of the year.
Bring it on.
If it hasn’t already been mentioned, Larvatus Prodeo exposes this little twerp Kerr for what he is (or isn’t) in an excellent post and some excellent comments today.
The OO are having MUCH difficulty with the concept that more people want to draw their own conclusions about what is going on and regard 99% of the OO output as total nonsense.
The OO still think ideas are a one way street where they tell people what to think. End of story.
In truth the hacks of the OO have just about run their race. It will not be long before they are looking for new jobs. Either Rupert falls off the perch and the OO is sold off OR they bleed to death financially. Either outcome is great.
Their basic problem is fewer people are prepared to pay for their drivel.
Suck it up christian – open up your “articles” to comments so we can correct your wrong thinking.
Diogenes. From memory, the grant of a DD is the one decision in our constitution the Queen definately CANNOT take. It’s a specific power for the G-G as holder of the office, not as Queen’s represenative. It is a power that only exists because of the Constitution, it is a power that does not exist in UK constitutional law.
Seems like the Punch have adapted the PB video clip mode of presentation Mimicry is flattery. Take note Tom.
http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/peter-costello-14-years-leadership-speculation/
Btw Antony – love the new “spiffy” calculator.
(apologies to Possum for copyright infringement)
Just heard Uhlmann on ABC TV news saying that Labor would be breathing a sigh of relief that Costello will not be leading the Opposition next election.
Will nobody rid of us of the meddlesome wannabee priest?
I don’t think Labor is scared of Costello, but I’m sure they’re not displeased that the Coalition is losing a credible choice of leader. Apart from Turnbull and Hockey the pickings are indeed very slim.
BB – no he didn’t He said some Labor people had looked forward to him being the leader, but would still breathe a sigh of relief he wouldn’t be there.
Will he follow Sarah Henderson and be pre-selected for a safe Liberal Seat ?
To be honest, Possum, the chart you prepared for the twerp’s benefit is the only one I’ve completely understood …
Bushfire Bill, snap on that thought about the meddlesome would be priest.
v funny BB.
Even funnier if you insert other names. Try replacing PC with Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey, Julie Bishop and try to keep a straight face.
That would be a concern if we assume the government goes to a DD really worried about passing the subject legislation. I would think the real reason in the current context for a DD would be to ensure a win and a better Senate while the Opposition are still down.
And even if a joint sitting were stopped the Govt’s new position would enable it to pass ‘improved’ legislation.
Cossie would have been a better choice of leader for the Liberals’ sake than Turnbull though.
But that isn’t saying much.
Loved this from the comments over on LP by Gummo Trotsky:
“Johnie, it was you. Remember that night you came down to my office and you said, “Kid, this ain’t your election. I’m going for the price on Rudd.” You remember that? “This ain’t your election”! My election! I coulda taken Rudd apart! So what happens? He gets the Lodge and what do I get? A one-way ticket to Palooka-ville! You was my idol, Johnie, you shoulda looked out for me a little bit. You shoulda taken care of me just a little bit so I wouldn’t have to take them dives for the short-end money.
I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am, let’s face it. It was you, Johnie”.
Certainly true but I don’t think the Government wants to and I’m fairly certain it (as well as industry) would prefer the bill to be passed with some level of bipartisanship.
I understand how the DD works, but I have been working on the assumption that if MT loads the gun and hands it to Rudd, then he will oblige him and shoot it. I can see that there are some additional risks with Rudd delaying the DD for whatever “technical” reasons whilst watching the Libs sweat it out. I guess this would be something that MT would have to weigh up as well. The best case scenario for MT would be that Rudd is playing straight as far as the DD brinkmanship goes and only exposes him to a nervous backbench for the duration of a short, sharp campaign.
I guess you could be right. MT may keep on rolling over like a good dog to defer his eventual whipping. But if he is anything not-at-all-like Costello he will spend his ephemeral political capital while he can.
Itep….
Bruce Billson
Greg Hunt
Scott Morrison
+ we’ll be getting new blood from Victoria…
Henderson, whoever gets Wannon, whoever gets Kooyong *most likely the Fry*, whoever gets Higgins…
We’ve got talent to fall back on its just that we’d rather not right now.
It’s the Mr T and Uncle Buck show for the next little bit…
I’ve been trying to catch up via a speed read of what’s been going on around the traps of late. Have I got it right that Christian Kerr thinks that Possum over does his arguments because he actually understands the methodology of statistical analysis; that people who post here “bay” at the announcement of anything William says (if that’s true, Terry Gilliam is a witch); and that the folk at Larvatus Prodeo cannot be taken seriously because of their choice of liquid refreshment?
I’ve been out of touch too long.
Personally I think the best option would be for the Government to store up some DD triggers, then call a DD just post July 2010. This would have the advantage of the election not being called ‘too early’ and giving the Government and almost full next term, whilst having a newer, potentially more friendly Senate starting straight away.
Inquiry into a plebiscite for a republic reported today.
Nice one.
No, no and who?
Thomas Paine, but to be credible, the government has to meet a real ‘fail to pass’ requirement on the first passage of the bill. That’s why the bill won’t be defeated until Aug/Sep, because to force a vote this week, as the government could do, would totally fail a case for normal Senate procedures having first been exhausted.
I don’t think the government is after a DD, it wants to pass the legislation and is acting in a way to maximise pressure on the opposition. But a DD threat isn’t credible unless its unambiguously passes constitutional probities.
Antony -
I see no difference. The clear meaning was that Labor was afraid of Costello. Forget the “some”, Uhlmann, an old Costello campaigner, famous for his “House Of Cards” (as in his 2007 prediction that “Labor’s support will collapse like a…”) was trying to get in one last hurrah.
Now Coalition voters will have to face the awful truth: Turnbull The Rainmaker is all they have left.
I almost feel sorry for them. All that guff over Costello and his book and his ambitions, his Svengali like progress towards… what? Leadership of the Libs? He couldn’t even organize the book launch properly (remember? it was on the day of the spill). Don’t make me laugh!
The guy had loser written all over his face. Ditto for his spruikers.
Antony,
You were commenting on half Senate elections earlier. Have there been many half Senate elections without HOR elections?
*falls off chair*
Uncle Buck is obviously a reference to Hockey and his weight. Whatever happened to “don’t pay out Hockey over his weight”??
There’s been a few, but they’re invariably bad for Governments as they give people the chance to lodge protest votes. I don’t think we’ve had one for quite some time although Whitlam was going to call one in 1975.
Where’s Bree been lately? Bree was the only Liberal regular left to think that the Libs would win the next election, and with Costello to boot!
Remember all the “the polls are wrong, the electors know they made a mistake in 2007, and will flock back to the coalition in droves at the next election under Costello” talk?
What a laugh.
Uncle Buck is a jolly person who doesnt take any guff and can be easily provoked that is my reasoning behind calling him Uncle Buck…
If I had called him Fat Joe or Big Joe then you’d have a point…
No Uncle Buck refers to – http://www.uncle-buck.co.uk/
Only 2300% interest rates,
BB – I completely disagree. You only quoted half of what was said in the report, leaving out the first half of the quote where it was suggested that many Labor MPs had looked forward to him being leader at the next election. I think that makes a huge difference, but if you see no difference, then all we can do is agree to disagree.
GG – there hasn’t been a separate half-Senate election one since 1970 when the election of Senator Negus from WA on the single platform of abolishing death duties convinced governments to avoid separate half-Senate elections like the plague. Except for Gough Whitlam, who did visit the GG on 11 November 1975 to request a half-Senate election.
I’ll just assume the fact that both Hockey and Uncle Buck are/were grossly obese is a coincidence.
Didn’t Uncle Buck drop dead from obesity?
Great Twitter coverage of the protests in Iran:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/14/iran-election-twitter-fee_n_215330.html
No you got it about right HSO. I’m only here waiting for William to throw us another fact.
Given the way Julia slaughtered The Oz in QT today, you’re not much hope of finding facts over there…
newspoll out tonight any predictions???
That’s why I said are/were rather than are.
56-44.
54-46
55-45
(actually I only did that to be in between bob and glen… though I’m not sure I want to be in that position!)
The Oz has a bit saying Newspoll out at 10:15 tonight – maybe they are a bit miffed at Mumble’s geting the jump?
57-43.
Thanks, Grog. William, if you’re about, do you have a preferred key (musical, of course; political is possible only if you are a witch and weigh less than a duck), we should commence baying in?
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/15/why-the-building-industry-needs-a-history-lesson/
Illegal for union members to not turn up for work, but perfectly OK for Liberal and National Party MPs to try to delay a parliamentary committee by not turning up for it and thus denying it a quorum.
Union workers do this, jail time and fines, but it is ok for the nats and libs to do the same. One rule for the serfs another for the squire.
Oh, and if anyone has any spare eggs, Possum will be needing them for the Newspoll.
Christopher Hitchens on the Iran debacle:
http://www.slate.com/id/2220520/
Itep! Why do you say no to Bruce Billson! the pines boy has done very well holding Dunkley since 1996
There’s still a bit of life yet in the Iranian election. I’m sure this will be a whitewash though. I’ve heard that there has basically been a coup within Iran to keep Ahmadinejad in the top job with Khomeni’s backing and that the results announced were not the results the Government wanted to release.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25641202-5005962,00.html
So after much talk Peter the Leo instead of having a mighty roar has given a soft meaow!
I think the ALP will be very happy for apart from Workchoices Costello was an election plus for the Liberals.
I read an article earlier today saying it would be extremely unusual for the Supreme Leader to turn back on his earlier comments endorsing the result of the election (he said the result showed God’s hand at work!?), well it seems that is exactly what has just happened.
The Liberals still have one workchoices elephant in the room – Joe Hockey. Labor have not fired a shot in his direction – yet.
Apparently he likes them over-easy.
Farewell Peter Costello…it will always be this for him..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0waNRaz6wU
That is interesting. Odd that they have to advertise they’re the place to go if you want to se it “first”.
Brando really was a Star. Cossie was but a legend in his own lunchtime.
And why advertise the newspoll? Who is waiting for it but us tragics?
Probably something like 53-47.
All this talk about Christian Kerr and The Oz.
You’d only read The Oz for its unbiased reporting on climate change.
Grog, if another poll doesn’t come out soon, we’ll have to stop baying.
Let alone whatever it is we do with conspiracy theories.
He said it was a blessing from god.
“Award Winning!!(!!11)” and unbiased reporting on climate change Greeny – let us not forget
Bushfire Bill # 659:
Costello = loser? *Laugh out loud*
He’s presumbably far more successful and accomplished than you’ll ever be. Miserable little troll.
What blog was Kerr referring to when he said disagree with group think and the tribe will chase you off the cliff? Bolts? Akermans?
Mr Pot meet Mr Kettle – Geez bring back Bree, at least she’s far more entertaining than this sad little petal.
Hi Patrick
Still feeling the pain, don’t worry the next election is only about 1 year away now, you will probably get your hopes up, (they want me back), but more likely I see more tears ahead.
Calling people trolls is un-pollbludgermentary.
I wouldn’t call Costello a miserable little troll, PF.
I think the last NewsPoll was 55/45 TPP to the forces of goodness and light??
I reckon 56/44 for tonight. If its better than that for the ALP then i will laugh, a lot.
Good to see Costello finally piss off. He was a useless distraction to everyone. Maybe now the Libs can start to rebuild.
I have it on good authority that Christian Kerr used to log on here under the name “Bree”. Hows that for breaking news in a blog?
Yes, it’s so hard to ride a mining boom wave. I spose it is hard work tending to those bedsores… hammocksores… whatever you care to call them.
I wouldn’t presume that Costello has been successful or accomplished.
Even Kerr’s comments are more intelligent than Bree’s. And that’s saying something.
WHOOOOOOOPPIEEE
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/15/2598926.htm
“Consider the early names being touted…and Mal Brough, the former Howard government cabinet minister who has moved south to Melbourne.”
WOOOOO
BROUGHY IS COMIN BACK (hopefully)
# 705,
Last time I checked, the mining boom didn’t begin until 2003, idiot. Hard to ride a “wave” when you weren’t actually riding one.
Possum,
let’s just say, the Oz is an institution. But, do you want to take your advice from some who lives in an institution.
Brough for Higgins!
All I know, it’s going to be a massive bun fight.
Then there’s Bradfield…
Hmm, Bree/Hilary Bray – it seems young Christian has a thing with posting under a female name – does he have problems dealing with his gender ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah4vUC54zkk
What? You want to turn another Liberal seat into a Labor one
Patrick Fogarty, while we’re waiting to hear what key we’re to bay in and who’s got any eggs for Possum to chuck on the Newspoll, any thoughts on how tremendously jolly Malcolm was about Costello’s announcement? He was awfully pleased.
Geez PH you do realise you’re defending yesterday’s hero?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siqrnVnTSUY
I always thought ESJ was a more likely Kerr candidate.
Bullbutter
Someone of Brough’s star quality will increase our margin in Higgins!
Vote Brough!
Glen,
Out of left field I have heard Michael O’Brien to Higgins and Matthew Guy in to Malvern (State) and write your own ticket for Matt Guy’s MLA seat.
From the Senator who gave us “the oversized mouse” comment…..
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/15/2598957.htm
Sounds to me like a Hack job GG…
Glen,
It’s been around for about a year.
SO Brough’s better than Costello?
Well Brough has more to offer now…
Brough’s star was rising Costello’s has been waning.
which is, of course, why the Howards lived in Sydney.
How quickly they turn
What a moronic statement
And what was so great about the economy prior to the mining boom?
Costello did nothing for the economy. He cut spending, waited for the mining boom, then spent a ton of money on middle class welfare. Where was the neoliberal economic reform that we saw under Hawke and Keating?
Hawke and Keating set up the economy to take advantage of the mining boom and overseas demand. Costello just swung in a hammock.
Just the technicality of winning a seat
Except that Keating’s challenge saw Labor gain a fifth term of government. Costello didn’t challenge, and the Liberals were only in power for four terms.
Thus, Keating did way more for his party than Costello. Who is loyal exactly?
Grog
I’m with you on Kerr and ESJ.
Landeryou is the blog he’s referring to as a sh!t-sheet.
I’m guessing we could easily be the “Disagree with the group-think of the tribe and they will chase you over a cliff” lot. We’ve got it down to a fine art.
Isn’t Kerr missing the point though? I post here because it’s interesting to talk about politics and learn stuff in this format, where you have to be able to debate (which you can’t do on blogs like Bolt’s etc because they are not instantly posted). That’s the only reason I’m here. I have no illusions about influencing anyone or anything.
And somehow the good electors of Higgins would not take too kindly to a Queenslander being parachuted into the seat
Bob,
Good point.
It certainly creates a Plan A that was successful versus Plan B scenario. Should create many books of “How to do Politics in Australia”.
The lesson being “Don’t die wondering if”.
Exactly – Keating challenged because he thought he was the only chance the ALP had of winning. If Costello thought the same of himself and yet didn’t challenge, then what does that mean?
Higgins is one of the few Liberal seats which is cosmopolitan enough to not worry about an outsider representing it. Brough would actually be quite a good fit for Higgins, and as a cleanskin he wouldn’t set of a Kroger-Baillieu sh*tfight.
Diogenes, I also thought Kerr and ESJ. At least on the Bludger, however, if you go over the cliff you may learn something on the way down, and in a sort of improbability type place, you can sort of bob up again. I do wish William would let us know whether it’s B flat or A minor we’re to start with at the announcement of Newspoll. Please Terry Gilliam, not F sharp.
Try as I might, I cannot picture Brough representing a surburban middle class Melbourne seat.
We Victorians find it hard enough not to lol when one of the McGauran brothers wanders around in a drizabone and at least they have the decency to only do so in the confines of FEG (Far East Gippsland).
Err yes. Possum provides great analysis, but that’s too much apparently. He shows the complete bull that was going on with the whole ABS unemployment data and yet, that’s “over-egging”.
William gives summaries on every poll out there, and yet that’s just throwing a few facts out to a baying pack of readers? (actually I prefer to be a “poster” rather than a passive reader, but whatever..).
Kerr does a post about Turnbull making a face when he gives a handshake. Make of that what you will.
Psephos, disagree with you about Higgins and Mal Brough, the minister for drizabones. I think the Libs in Higgins would turn up their noses. Military, but not a general, or even a major, what?
Another thoughtful post from Paul Hodgson on LP.
I’ll spend an hour or so exploring whether I can get something like this “Wanted” ad placed in the Australian:
“I am a journalist for The Australian. I was formerly political commentator for http://www.crikey.com.au. I was sacked by Crikey. Crikey then employed people like Scott Steele from pollytics and William Bowe from pollbludger. I am now writing opinion pieces for the Australian in which I attack Scott Steele and William Bowe. I see no need whatever to acknowledge this background in my pieces for The Australian. I am told that I should seek help from ethicists and psychologists. The Australian finds nothing amiss with what I am doing. I need advice.”
Crossed over, zoomster.
My guess at Newspoll is 57-43 (reflecting the good news on avoiding a recession)
In a way I agree with Psephos about Higgins being the type of seat that wouldn’t be concerned by an outsider and whilst I have no problem with Brough I am not sure if the Liberal Party should be using Higgins to return a former Howard minister when it has the change to bring in new blood just as it will be in Kooyong.
The idea of Michael O’Brien into Higgins and Guy into Malvern sounds good on paper but if my memory is correct is O’brien someone Costello likes and I would imaing he will have a big say in who replaces him in a seat that now should be counted as a marginal Liberal seat.
No I am not expecting the Liberals to lose Higgins but on paper it is now a marginal seat.
Spooky, HSO.
I thought you were quoting me, not channelling….
For about the millionth time the ALP will not lose Melbourne to the Greens at the next federal election.
Ah, but mexicanbeemer, it ONLY requires a 4.7% swing and even if the Greens don’t win it next time, they’ll win it the time after that, or when Tanner leaves, or….
Harry! dare I be cheecky and suggest Psephos wants Brough in Higgins is it may make the seat winnable for the ALP.
Lets look at Higgins the Liberal vote in the prahran/South Yarra end is falling, all that is winning them that seat at present is the Malvern/Glen Iris/Camberwell booths, if the ALP can shift those booths then that seat may sart looking like Melbourne Ports which is very similar in many ways.
if the Libs don’t run a candidate and all the dirty campaigbning is outsourced to 3rd parties with a vested interest like a certain recent By-Election.
Adele has a LOT to answer for here
Thoughtful maybe, but is it accurate? “I was sacked by Crikey” is not right about Christian Kerr, though I am prepared to stand corrected. Saying something like that about the wrong person can cost you a lot of money, as a few people at Crikey have found out over the years.
Zoomster! I agree the Greens will be a better change when Tanner departs or this Government has aged a bit but my point is aimed at 2010.
Wow. I have never seen a more damning 4 corners. It just makes you want to scream in frustration that such an atrocity could ever be allowed to occur.
Farewell to Peter Costello. He will be missed.
Well it didn’t help when the Court Government privatised Prison Transport in the late 90’s.
The Liberals will contest melbourne for a simple reason if the Liberals don’t the ALP could quite righty say the Liberals do not care about Melbourne and that could hurt the Liberals across the city of Melbourne
Mexican the only reason why the Libs run in Melbourne and those western suburbs ALP strongholds is for the Senate votes…
BTW the good people of Higgins would most likely want a star to replace Costello and someone who’ll be on the front bench…if Brough got in he’d be on the front bench in a second…
More factionalism we dont need in victoria and the hacks have enough free seats to keep them busy…the question is did Costello and Brough get along…it is a good chance they did.
Did Costello support Brough when he came to Cabinet in 2007 and asked for an increase in the pension rate? (Because the penioners were living on dogfood, remember?) I think the answer is Not Bloody Likely.
No 754
It doesn’t help that Margaret Quirk completely failed to fix the problems she was notified of which resulted in the unnecessary and tragic death of Mr Ward.
No 757
So Bloody What? Pensioners and carers had received sizeable bonuses for a number of years anyway.
Well put simply id rather have Brough in Higgins than a Hack…
Whether or not that happens well we’ll soon see.
Glen! I am fully aware the Liberals on run in certain areas for senate votes.
Mexican BMW,
I agree with you about Prahran/Sth Yarra (i’m actually living there just now myself) looking a bit like parts of Melbourne Ports (eg St Kilda).
The trouble is, Prahan/South Yarra have been retty much like this for years (maybe even decades).
IF there was going to be a transformation of Higgins into an edgy, green-heavy marginal, it would have happened already-
People here don’t vote Liberal because Costello has been the member
GP! Now now control yourself for those pensioners are your strongest supporters.
Brough is an excellent candidate for Higgins and Turnbull would definitely make good use of him on the front bench. Main thing is that he’s still pretty young and has Ministerial experience which are all pluses in my book.
Glen,
Go ahead, make my lunch
Mal Brough in Higgins would turn it into a marginal Labor.
Margaret Quirk to her credit did try to convince cabinet to terminate the contract when she did find out, but alas she wasn’t able to convince them to do so, and she has since regretted it and at least she’s had the courage to admit she was wrong, which is more than what any Liberal would’ve responded if faced with a similar situation.
No 763
Sometimes even your best supporters need some tough love. The most recent pension increase was simply unaffordable given the unbelievable rate of spending that had preceded the budget via the stimulus packages.
How about GP for Higgins? Just ask Rudd to make sure the election is between semesters.
Mr Squiggle!! gee you have a long memory referring to my old PB name!
Yeah I take your point!
Glen would be a better fit for Higgins!
GG one word…bullbutter!
If the Rudd slide could only take off 1% from Costello’s margin i doubt we’d lose the seat if Brough or anyone else ran in the seat…
Plus let’s look at it this way the Libs need talent on our front bench and here is ready made talent that could fit in really well.
GP,
Cached for future reference.
If you want to cut your own throat, don’t ask me for a bandage.
Mal Brough would be a good Liberal candidate anywhere he stood (inlcuding Solomon)
The problem for Labor with Higgins is that even though it’s fairly marginal on paper, is has Armadale and Toorak in it, and they will vote for anything with a Liberal label on it, come what may. The Labor voting fringes at Prahran-Windsor and Carnegie-Alamein can never match the 70% Liberal vote in Armadale-Toorak. Maybe one day if the seat extends out to Oakleigh, but not now.
# Mex
Much of my memory is stored in my nose – there is more room than other puppets
With due respect Higgins wont be falling to the ALP but if the boundaries were redrawn it could be interesting.
Glen,
As you said, local member withstood the avalanche.
Please Brough, please.
No 766
Frank, yes she did admit she was wrong, but that’s all too easy after a person has needlessly lost their life due to her own incompetence. Furthermore, the Government spun its way out of disaster by proclaiming it was building new vehicles, when it fact all it had done was purchase the same old AIM/GSL vehicles at a cheap price, thereby perpetuating the mistreatment of prisoners.
And please, stop embarrassing yourself and your party by deferring the matter as an inherent problem with the Liberals. Your lot have nowhere to hide on this matter.
Agreed…Mr Squiggle but we dont want what happened to Brough in 2007 to happen to him again down the track (solomon has a tendency to be highly marginal)…
Higgins would suit him nicely…maybe he had a heads up that so many seats would become available before he decided to live in Melbourne…
Wonder what he does for a crust down here?
Toorak makes up less than 10% of the vote in Higgins and the ALP do better in Toorak than the Liberals do in Braodmeadows.
Glen for Higgins!!! Glen For Higgins!!!
Vote early, vote often!
There is a serious arguement for St Kilda to be put in with Prahran/South Yarra and putting Camberwell and Glen Iris into Kooyong that could make things interesting.
P.S this could be done by putting Sth Melbourne and Port5 Melbourne into Melbourne.
Actually those vehicles were FORMER Govt Vehicles which were sold to AIMS/GSL when it was first privatised.
GP #758 – Four corners was really disturbing
I’m an east coaster, I associate Australia with sand, surf, sunshine, beautiful women, you know..good things were people can grow and love life
Hearing about that mazda, and the elder dying like he was stock in a cattle truck was really sickening.
I’m no big fan of the indigenous agenda in Oz, but that truly was a story to be ashamed of
Apparently Newspoll shifts to the Libs
No 783
Which makes their spin-doctoring effort even worse. They knew how old and poorly-maintained the vehicles were when they purchased them. The minster was aware of reports indicating that the vehicles were inappropriate. The minister chose to purchase them anyway.
But as I said, it was a system which was created by the Libs privatising it, so it is a bit rich for yourselves and the WA Libs to criticise Labor when it was a Liberal Govt which provided the structure for the system in the first place, and AIMS/GSLK were involved in several other problems in WA, including the infamous Supreme Court Escape and the Govt were so close in cancelling the contract then, but decided to give them one final chance – perghaps that is the problem.
Ah so that’s why the big “tune in at 10:15″
the NARROWING!
53-47?
No 784
Hear hear. It was absolutely terrible. There is just nothing else one can say about it. What’s even more mind boggling is that the Government was made aware of these issues several times and did nothing about it. It actually purchased the vehicles that it knew to completely unsuitable for the job!
possibly but even so that is bringing it back to Ruddslide levels…plus it is only one poll of that figure…
The problem lies in the lack of vehicles which are actually designed for proper prison transport – even our Police Deptartments are experiencing finding suitable vehicles. Perhaps there should’ve been a ban on Road Transport in areas which reqwuire more than 60 minutes travelling time ?
If you know something Possum, spit it out!
The suspense is killing me. I hope it will last…
This cycle, two polls moved toward Labor, so with Newspoll going the other way it’s a wait and see for the next cycle jobbie. That said, it could come in at 54-56 and have some movement on PPM for Turnbull.
Nothing like the beauty contest to drive column inches.
No 787
Frank, your idiocy is intractable. You simply refuse to accept any proposition that Labor might be at fault. Of course Labor is to blame. It was in Government for 7 years. If it felt the system was so bad, it could have done something about it. But it didn’t do anything. In fact, it simply perpetuated the atrocity.
To then blame the Liberals for the problem is as ridiculous as it is offensive.
No-one has anywhere to hide on this matter. I was at Docker River in 1974, and there were problems with police treatment of people at Laverton and Warburtonback then. Obviously things have got worse rather than better.
I don’t think these sorts of issues should be reduced to the status of a political football, the fact is the Liberals are in Government therefore the onus is on them to deal with this serious matter.
No 799
Of course. I sincerely hope Barnett fixes this problem.
But there is a culture in the Dept of Corrections which would’ve made it difficult, if not impossible to make such changes – and it is not just Labor’s fault, it is also the Liberals who privatised the entire process in the first place.
That is the political fact – so Colin Barnett, who was a member of the Court Govt at the time has as much blood on his hands than Labor.
They could start by sacking that public servant who admitted that he was responsible because he is the head of the department!
with the 3% budget cutbacks, somehow I doubt it.
Frank! That is not a good enough excuse and this is why this issue and similar issues should be above polly nit-picking for both sides have at times mis managed these issues but in saying that regardless of who runs something they are still answerable to the Law and I am sure we know that is where the role of Government comes in.
It must be the instantaneous clear air that Cossie has given Turnbull.
because he’s been so impressive…
Noise,noise all around
And not a lot to think
No 801
The mere fact of privatisation is not a suitable defence to the incompetence of Labor in managing these issues. The fact that it bought back the same vehicles from GSL/AIM, which it knew to be faulty and inappropriate for long haul transport, is a testament to that.
Try telling that to Generic Heffalump, who made those comments about only blaming Labor, I just pointed out that the Privatisation happened under the Libs.
No 802
Yes, I agree. What a dolt. He didn’t have the guts to front up. At least Quirk did, even though it was too little too late.
Antony Green… looks like I read Uhlmann’s little blurb on the 7 o’clock news right after all…
Chris Uhlmann @ http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/15/2598926.htm
So Labor MPs were “posturing”, and “many” (up from “some” at 7pm) would now admit it was “false bravado”. There was bonhomie among the Labor ranks that the man they fear the most is going.
What a giant of an imagination our Chris has.
Mex BMW – I agree, I’m no mechanic, but how much does it cost to add a functioning air conditioner to a 10-year old Mazda van?
A couple of hundred dollars????
one thousand?? times how many vehicles in the fleet? 50?
I’m just guessing at numbers, but whatever I come up with, it doesn’t make sense to withhold the expense,
No 808
Privatisation is not a reason for the atrocity. It’s just a cop out for someone who refuses to accept any responsibility even when the facts smack them in the face.
You obviously don’t understand – maybe they had NO choice in the matter due to the lack of a suitable NEW Vehicle – and then agfain the Private Operator is the main body responsible as THEY set out the policies in the transport of Prisoners.
David Speers on twitter claims that Newspoll looks good for Turnbull. The Aus is advertising the results to be up at 10:15.
Frank I missed GP’s comment that you refer to but knowing GP I would expect him to point the finger at the ALP!
But it is a major FACTOR, in why it took place – if it were under Govt control, then there would’ve been stronger safeguards and mechinisoms to deal with such problems.
No 813
They should have commissioned a new vehicle. A Toyota HiAce is among the several alternatives the Government could have considered. They’re just modified vans – a request for tender for a new fleet should have been commissioned.
And if you think the Private Operator was at fault, cancel the contract. Bring them to task. Do something. Labor did nothing, despite all the evidence that it was armed with.
Regardless of who owns it there are community standards concerning basic human rights and this gentleman should have had access to Water and there is no excuse and no one can claim political points from this unless they are prepared to deliver higher standards.
No 817
In all seriousness, the Liberals would also be copping an equal amount of criticism had they been in power when this occurred. It’s just not acceptable. A guy was forced to urinate inside the vehicle, despite repeated attempts to get the attention of the prison guards! That is just not right, regardless of which party you support.
The conversion is complete! Senator Fielding has come out as a complete climate change denier, he gives sceptics a bad name:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25641961-29277,00.html
No 819
No there wouldn’t. Margaret Quirk bought back the same useless vehicles. Clearly her actions evinced no intention to change the situation, despite her public statements to the contrary.
Labor has to put it’s hand up for the 4 Corners case. Ultimately, it was their responsibility. It was way too long after the Libs left to be able to blame them.
53-47
No 823
Fielding continues to look stupid, as usual.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25642416-601,00.html
It’s pretty sick that people are passing the buck over this one.
The Liberals shouldn’t have privatised the thing in the first place, Labor should have fixed the corrections department when they had the chance, and the van guards should be on trial for manslaughter.
Newspoll 53/47 from primaries running 41/40
Newspoll 53-47
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25642416-601,00.html
Newspoll 53/47
GP,
I’m impressed!
If you and others lay down the guns of rhetoric maybe there is a solution.
However, is this the extent of your committment or are you prepared to personally do something about it.
Both sides would be happy with that.
Regardless of the condition of the vehicles, there were procedural methods of dealing with transport that could have been implemented. Simple things, like not travelling in the heat of the day, providing regular breaks, providing water, having back-up and emergency procedures in place, first aid training for transport staff. It is not legal to leave an animal in a vehicle, so how is it acceptable to leave prisoners in vehicles?
Grog has the link, Possum has the numbers but i am first with both.
Yeah – she is probably thinking, how did this guy learn to walk upright.
Hopefully that will be repeated in other polling…
If that is 40% our primary vote needs to be much higher if we’re to win government in future…
That being said im happy its not 59-41 or 62-38…
THE NARROWING THE NARROWING lol
Teamwork!
if we take the 53-47 result and subtract 2% for election campaign narrowing what do we get
A one-term ALP government!!
According to Antony’s calculator it’s only a 89-59 win for the ALP.
Hopefully Robert Cock will lay charges, but somehow considering his recent record on such things, he probably won’t.
Might even buy the paper tomorrow what with cossie going and a better than usual newspoll…
Why bother? It’ll be online.
The Coalition’s primary vote is now … two points higher than late last year when Mr Turnbull ousted Brendan Nelson to become opposition leader.
Must be time for another change in the leadership.
53-2 = 51.
And the campaign narrowing generally has the voters going to the incumbent, not the Opposition, so that’s 53+2= 55.
Which of course would’ve been done by the private operator – you could have the best vehicles in the world, but without those basic things it would still happen – though I wonder if AIMS/GSL would’ve acted differently if it was a Caucasion prisoner, or if in fact Bail would’ve been given ?
Yeah get it block mounted! Or even framed!
Key sentence:
so doesn’t sound like any narrowing there…
With Costello gone, the pressure will be on MT to perform.
Glen 843,
Mate, you are happy that Cossie is going? I thought you would be leading the wake
Good result for the Liberals in Newspoll. Though, it is only peripherally interesting, given that they’re basically back where they were at the 2007 election.
I am not too surpirsed by this poll for there has been a slight narrowing over the past three months or so and a lot of this has to do with the Economy and to a lesser extent the debate around ETS which is still a secondary issue to the Economy.
so based on Antony Green’s site this is a six seat gain for the ALP not a bad result for a Government that has had a very large economic down turn.
so the The Oz has tried to link the movement in primaries to the Joel Fitzgibbon resignation
thats a bit of stretch, even for a paper than wanted him gone…..more likely to be a rogue poll
no one in voterland cares about fitzgibbon
Joel who?
No 854
Oh how convenient.
GP! Your point bring
Well said Squiggle.
Also well said.
Though if you look at Possum’s trend, there is a definite direction.
But wasn’t the dirty work done by The Age/Hearld and weren’t they calling for his head ?
Peter who?
I actually think Cossie leaving might drop the Libs polling in the short term. Lots of voters think he’s a great economic manager and he was part of the reason Howard won 4 elections. They’ll see it as a drop in talent in the Liberal Party. And lots were hoping he would step up to the plate during the GFC.
Turnbull is obviously thrilled, and so would many in his party be but I don’t think swinging voters will be.
No 862
Interesting point. You may well be right.
I think Turnbull needs to but some more dries on the front bench. Get rid of Pyne, for one thing.
Turnbull must be a terrible poker player. he betrayed his delight in Cossie’s departure too obviously.
GP would you have Tony Abbott as Manager of Opposition Business?
Diogs,
There are others that are so relieved he’ll never be PM.
The answer is a pineapple
Finns so did Rudd and Gillard…
No 865
Yep. If not, he should at least have the Health or Education portfolio to go up against Gillard.
I just posted a comment on the WA thread on the Four Corners show. (Silly me). Well I don’t see how anyone not being paid to do so would want to defend Labor on this one. A man dies in horrid circumstances, while being transferred after being denied bail on a minor drunkenness charge. That is indefensible. I thought both the former (Labor) minister and the departmental executive looked pathetically weak, one protesting that failing to do her job was not her job, the other mouthing off a meaningless apology obviously concocted by the departmental lawyer.
IMO the former Labor government is to blame; they failed to allocate the resources, despite years of warning and booming budgets. If they were not to blame for this then you presumably don’t blame them for the mining boom or the rail line. At least after the Jayant Patel scandal in Qld, Beatty admitted there was a problem and tried to fix it. This one is government failure, like it or not. Trying to spin around it only discredits the spinner, and exposes their lack of ethics. Passing the buck to a private contractor, however negligent, when the government has done the contracting out in the first place, is arguing in bad faith.
Agreed he likes going up against Julia…
What would become of the Member for Whine???
Glen, Rudd and Gillard should display more delight. Cossie was your security blanket.
Now you are all alone, like a completely unknown, like a rolling stone. How does it feel?
Well, cant say i’m thrilled at 53/47. Be interesting to know why?? The only really negative thing that seems to have happened during the period seems to be Fitzgibbon going and a change in Defence minster isn’t going to shift 4% of primary vote. Cant see CPRS shifting votes away from the ALP at the moment. News on the economy has been pretty upbeat.
Although the trend for the ALP has been down for a while, it will be interesting to see if this is a consistent shift (i dont think it is) or a low outlier. Suggesting this an outlier isn’t whinging by the way. We know there are high ones and it follows there will be low ones. I’m genuinely interested in what PBers think may be the reasons behind the result.
No 870
Alex Hawke, perhaps? Although, he’s too inexperienced. If Ciobo can bring in more cardboard Kevs, he can be the MOB.
Finns it feels as though a huge weight has been lifted off the Party and we can now go out boldly into the future and get on with it….
Going to Costello now or after 2010 would have been like going to Kimbo after 2004 a waste of time…
Time to look to the future…
No government stays popular forever.
Perhaps Possum can enlighten us on the longest period over which a government has stayed ahead in the polls. If Rudd hasn’t already broken the record he must be close to it.
Well there you go: Talcum finally shuts up for a few weeks, and his numbers improve! It’ll be that, plus a bit of stat noise, if you ask me.
Glen,
Nice with the curtains.
How about the 20+ members over 65?
gen Y’s will love em.
Imacca! The Economy
Lets remember that if the ALP had 57% support that has now dropped to 53% that could well be Liberal voters who at first like aspects of the Rudd Government but are now not happy with increasing job insecurity comfirming in the short term at least that the ALP are indeed a high debt high unemployment government.
As you write the poll numbers move around and we know that Rudd is well in front but considering the current let of issues facing the Government this is actually a good poll result remembering the next election is next year.
New thread.