The Poll Bludger is still in Summer Edition mode, so pardon me for being less than timely with the news that Roy Morgan attached a question on voting intention to its recent 715-sample phone survey on consumer confidence, which had Labor leading 57.5-42.5. Something like normal service will resume as of tomorrow night’s Newspoll. Other news:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that “branches in the Sutherland Shire seat of Cook are being furiously stacked in what moderates say is an attempt to ward off a potential challenge by the far right to the sitting Liberal member, Scott Morrison”. However, Right sources deny any such plan and instead argue the stacking is being conducted in pursuit of the moderates’ own designs against Morrison. Central to the ongoing dispute is Michael Towke, whose preselection win upon the retirement of Bruce Baird at the 2007 election was overturned by the party’s state executive following reports of branch-stacking activities and extravagant claims made in his CV. The seat instead went to the well-connected but factionally unaligned Morrison, who went on to suffer humiliation at the hands of the local Right-controlled branches which refused his membership application a few months after he entered parliament. Talk of ongoing Right designs on the seat received further impetus when Towke secured the position of Cook electoral council secretary. Coorey reports there are rumours afoot that the Right will seek to have state upper house MP Marie Ficarra depose Morrison, making her own position available to Towke – although this was “laughed off” by a “senior Right source”.
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Labor national executive has given Kevin Rudd and the five-member national executive committee (Anthony Albanese, Mark Arbib, Mark Butler, Bill Shorten and Bill Ludwig) extensive powers over federal preselections. State branches will not be able to start preselection processes without the permission of the committee, which will further have the power to replace sitting members – significantly including Belinda Neal, the troubled member for Robertson.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Victorian Liberal leader Ted Baillieu, director Tony Nutt and president David Kemp have moved without reference to the party’s administration committee to truncate the preselection process for next year’s state election from eight weeks to four. Baillieu opponents say this is a move to shore up the position of his backers Andrew McIntosh (Kew), Helen Shardey (Caulfield) and Kim Wells (Scoresby). Landeryou also relates rumours about the possible departure of Liberal deputy leader Louise Asher, the member for Brighton.
• Liberal Party members in the Victorian federal seat of Corangamite, which the party lost in 2007, will today vote for a candidate at the next election. The front-runners are said to be Sarah Henderson, former 7:30 Report host and daughter of the late former Geelong state MP Ann Henderson, and Rod Nockles, internet security expert and former Howard government adviser. Others who have been mentioned at various stages include Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay, more recently mentioned in relation to Wannon; former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Corangamite electorate council; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, owner of Kings Australia funeral services. (UPDATE: Sarah Henderson wins. See Andrew Landeryou and his comments thread for much confusion over who backed whom.)
• There was renewed talk this week that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden could be moving to the lower house. It was initially suggested he would take the seat of Keilor, expected to be forcibly vacated by controversial Right faction numbers man George Seitz. However, Madden has ruled this out, saying it would not be a good look for him to take the seat given the role of his staffer Hakki Suleyman in the Brimbank City Council controversies which are set to initiate Seitz’s departure. Madden said he did not want, but would not rule out, taking the retiring Judy Maddigan’s seat of Essendon. Prior to the 2006 election, it was planned that Madden would be accommodated in Bundoora due to the reduction in the size of the Legislative Council, but a rearrangement following Mary Delahunty’s departure from Northcote saw him stay put.
• The New South Wales Nationals’ annual state conference has resolved to proceed with an exciting plan in which a candidate in a yet-to-be-determined state electorate will be chosen by an American-style open primary, in which all voters in the electorate will be able to participate.
879 Comments
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That would be a concern if we assume the government goes to a DD really worried about passing the subject legislation. I would think the real reason in the current context for a DD would be to ensure a win and a better Senate while the Opposition are still down.
And even if a joint sitting were stopped the Govt’s new position would enable it to pass ‘improved’ legislation.
Cossie would have been a better choice of leader for the Liberals’ sake than Turnbull though.
But that isn’t saying much.
Loved this from the comments over on LP by Gummo Trotsky:
“Johnie, it was you. Remember that night you came down to my office and you said, “Kid, this ain’t your election. I’m going for the price on Rudd.” You remember that? “This ain’t your election”! My election! I coulda taken Rudd apart! So what happens? He gets the Lodge and what do I get? A one-way ticket to Palooka-ville! You was my idol, Johnie, you shoulda looked out for me a little bit. You shoulda taken care of me just a little bit so I wouldn’t have to take them dives for the short-end money.
I coulda had class. I coulda been a contender. I coulda been somebody, instead of a bum, which is what I am, let’s face it. It was you, Johnie”.
Certainly true but I don’t think the Government wants to and I’m fairly certain it (as well as industry) would prefer the bill to be passed with some level of bipartisanship.
I understand how the DD works, but I have been working on the assumption that if MT loads the gun and hands it to Rudd, then he will oblige him and shoot it. I can see that there are some additional risks with Rudd delaying the DD for whatever “technical” reasons whilst watching the Libs sweat it out. I guess this would be something that MT would have to weigh up as well. The best case scenario for MT would be that Rudd is playing straight as far as the DD brinkmanship goes and only exposes him to a nervous backbench for the duration of a short, sharp campaign.
I guess you could be right. MT may keep on rolling over like a good dog to defer his eventual whipping. But if he is anything not-at-all-like Costello he will spend his ephemeral political capital while he can.
Itep….
Bruce Billson
Greg Hunt
Scott Morrison
+ we’ll be getting new blood from Victoria…
Henderson, whoever gets Wannon, whoever gets Kooyong *most likely the Fry*, whoever gets Higgins…
We’ve got talent to fall back on its just that we’d rather not right now.
It’s the Mr T and Uncle Buck show for the next little bit…
I’ve been trying to catch up via a speed read of what’s been going on around the traps of late. Have I got it right that Christian Kerr thinks that Possum over does his arguments because he actually understands the methodology of statistical analysis; that people who post here “bay” at the announcement of anything William says (if that’s true, Terry Gilliam is a witch); and that the folk at Larvatus Prodeo cannot be taken seriously because of their choice of liquid refreshment?
I’ve been out of touch too long.
Personally I think the best option would be for the Government to store up some DD triggers, then call a DD just post July 2010. This would have the advantage of the election not being called ‘too early’ and giving the Government and almost full next term, whilst having a newer, potentially more friendly Senate starting straight away.
Inquiry into a plebiscite for a republic reported today.
Nice one.
No, no and who?
Thomas Paine, but to be credible, the government has to meet a real ‘fail to pass’ requirement on the first passage of the bill. That’s why the bill won’t be defeated until Aug/Sep, because to force a vote this week, as the government could do, would totally fail a case for normal Senate procedures having first been exhausted.
I don’t think the government is after a DD, it wants to pass the legislation and is acting in a way to maximise pressure on the opposition. But a DD threat isn’t credible unless its unambiguously passes constitutional probities.
Antony -
I see no difference. The clear meaning was that Labor was afraid of Costello. Forget the “some”, Uhlmann, an old Costello campaigner, famous for his “House Of Cards” (as in his 2007 prediction that “Labor’s support will collapse like a…”) was trying to get in one last hurrah.
Now Coalition voters will have to face the awful truth: Turnbull The Rainmaker is all they have left.
I almost feel sorry for them. All that guff over Costello and his book and his ambitions, his Svengali like progress towards… what? Leadership of the Libs? He couldn’t even organize the book launch properly (remember? it was on the day of the spill). Don’t make me laugh!
The guy had loser written all over his face. Ditto for his spruikers.
Antony,
You were commenting on half Senate elections earlier. Have there been many half Senate elections without HOR elections?
*falls off chair*
Uncle Buck is obviously a reference to Hockey and his weight. Whatever happened to “don’t pay out Hockey over his weight”??
There’s been a few, but they’re invariably bad for Governments as they give people the chance to lodge protest votes. I don’t think we’ve had one for quite some time although Whitlam was going to call one in 1975.
Where’s Bree been lately? Bree was the only Liberal regular left to think that the Libs would win the next election, and with Costello to boot!
Remember all the “the polls are wrong, the electors know they made a mistake in 2007, and will flock back to the coalition in droves at the next election under Costello” talk?
What a laugh.
Uncle Buck is a jolly person who doesnt take any guff and can be easily provoked that is my reasoning behind calling him Uncle Buck…
If I had called him Fat Joe or Big Joe then you’d have a point…
No Uncle Buck refers to – http://www.uncle-buck.co.uk/
Only 2300% interest rates,
BB – I completely disagree. You only quoted half of what was said in the report, leaving out the first half of the quote where it was suggested that many Labor MPs had looked forward to him being leader at the next election. I think that makes a huge difference, but if you see no difference, then all we can do is agree to disagree.
GG – there hasn’t been a separate half-Senate election one since 1970 when the election of Senator Negus from WA on the single platform of abolishing death duties convinced governments to avoid separate half-Senate elections like the plague. Except for Gough Whitlam, who did visit the GG on 11 November 1975 to request a half-Senate election.
I’ll just assume the fact that both Hockey and Uncle Buck are/were grossly obese is a coincidence.
Didn’t Uncle Buck drop dead from obesity?
Great Twitter coverage of the protests in Iran:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/14/iran-election-twitter-fee_n_215330.html
No you got it about right HSO. I’m only here waiting for William to throw us another fact.
Given the way Julia slaughtered The Oz in QT today, you’re not much hope of finding facts over there…
newspoll out tonight any predictions???
That’s why I said are/were rather than are.
56-44.
54-46
55-45
(actually I only did that to be in between bob and glen… though I’m not sure I want to be in that position!)
The Oz has a bit saying Newspoll out at 10:15 tonight – maybe they are a bit miffed at Mumble’s geting the jump?
57-43.
Thanks, Grog. William, if you’re about, do you have a preferred key (musical, of course; political is possible only if you are a witch and weigh less than a duck), we should commence baying in?
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/06/15/why-the-building-industry-needs-a-history-lesson/
Illegal for union members to not turn up for work, but perfectly OK for Liberal and National Party MPs to try to delay a parliamentary committee by not turning up for it and thus denying it a quorum.
Union workers do this, jail time and fines, but it is ok for the nats and libs to do the same. One rule for the serfs another for the squire.
Oh, and if anyone has any spare eggs, Possum will be needing them for the Newspoll.
Christopher Hitchens on the Iran debacle:
http://www.slate.com/id/2220520/
Itep! Why do you say no to Bruce Billson! the pines boy has done very well holding Dunkley since 1996
There’s still a bit of life yet in the Iranian election. I’m sure this will be a whitewash though. I’ve heard that there has basically been a coup within Iran to keep Ahmadinejad in the top job with Khomeni’s backing and that the results announced were not the results the Government wanted to release.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25641202-5005962,00.html
So after much talk Peter the Leo instead of having a mighty roar has given a soft meaow!
I think the ALP will be very happy for apart from Workchoices Costello was an election plus for the Liberals.
I read an article earlier today saying it would be extremely unusual for the Supreme Leader to turn back on his earlier comments endorsing the result of the election (he said the result showed God’s hand at work!?), well it seems that is exactly what has just happened.
The Liberals still have one workchoices elephant in the room – Joe Hockey. Labor have not fired a shot in his direction – yet.
Apparently he likes them over-easy.
Farewell Peter Costello…it will always be this for him..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0waNRaz6wU
That is interesting. Odd that they have to advertise they’re the place to go if you want to se it “first”.
Brando really was a Star. Cossie was but a legend in his own lunchtime.
And why advertise the newspoll? Who is waiting for it but us tragics?
Probably something like 53-47.
All this talk about Christian Kerr and The Oz.
You’d only read The Oz for its unbiased reporting on climate change.
Grog, if another poll doesn’t come out soon, we’ll have to stop baying.
Let alone whatever it is we do with conspiracy theories.
He said it was a blessing from god.
“Award Winning!!(!!11)” and unbiased reporting on climate change Greeny – let us not forget
Bushfire Bill # 659:
Costello = loser? *Laugh out loud*
He’s presumbably far more successful and accomplished than you’ll ever be. Miserable little troll.
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