The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 57-43, down from 58-42 a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, Labor is down 0.5 per cent to 48.5 per cent, the Coalition is up 2 per cent to 38 per cent and the Greens are down 1 per cent to 7 per cent.
In other news, it’s all happening in Victoria:
• Peter Costello’s surprise announcement that he will not contest the next election has raised the flag on another epic Victorian Liberal preselection stoush in his Melbourne seat of Higgins, which housed successive Liberal prime ministers in Harold Holt and John Gorton. Furthermore, Costello has raised the possibility of an early departure and a by-election, “if it’s in the party’s interest”. Immediately prior to Costello’s announcement, Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam signalled his intention to run if Costello stood aside, after earlier testing the waters in Kooyong (see below). However, Peter van Onselen in The Australian reports that Costello has resolved to oppose Roskam due to equivocal comments he made to David Penberthy of The Punch about Costello’s future value in politics. Van Onselen further reports widespread displeasure at this and other remarks seen to be in breach of Liberal rules that preselection aspirations are not to be discussed with the media. Costello reportedly wishes for the seat to go to a former staffer, Kelly O’Dwyer. It had earlier been reported that O’Dwyer might depose incumbent Ted Baillieu loyalist Andrew McIntosh in the state seat of Kew. The other big name in the Higgins mix is Mal Brough, who has moved to Melbourne and is said to be hopeful of a return to politics that doesn’t involve further dirtying his hands in the morass of the Queensland Liberal National Party. However, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports party sources say he has “no chance”. Also mentioned are former state party director Julian Sheezel, who was said to be backed by Costello but opposed by Michael Kroger when talk of Costello’s departure was in the air after the election, Jason Aldworth, a former banking colleague of Michael Kroger and more recently a consultant for Crosby Textor; and, intriguingly, Tom Elliott, hedge fund manager and son of John, who memorably sought to depose Roger Shipton as member for this very seat in pursuit of his prime ministerial ambitions.
• Merchant banker Josh Frydenberg has won the hotly contested preselection to succeed Petro Georgiou as the Liberal candidate for Kooyong. Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that Frydenberg won the second round ballot over industrial relations lawyer John Pesutto by 283 votes to 239 after all other contenders were excluded in the first round. The result is a defeat for Ted Baillieu, whose power base had pursued various stratagems designed to thwart Frydenberg, the preferred candidate of the rival Kroger faction.
• The ALP national executive’s role in Victorian state preselections has been further expanded following John Brumby’s decision to refer to the body all state upper house preselections for next year’s election. Labor insiders quoted by David Rood of The Age relate that the decision will “all but end” the career of Theo Theophanous, who faces a vigorously contested rape charge and was recently among those named adversely in the state Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council. This week the national executive acted as expected in relation to a number of lower house preselections referred to it in the wake of the latter imbroglio, selecting former Trades Hall Council deputy secretary (and wife of New South Wales Senator Steve Hutchins) Natalie Sykes-Hutchins to replace George Seitz in Keilor and confirming incumbents Telmo Languiller, Rob Hulls, Marsha Thomson and Marlene Kairouz in Derrimut, Niddrie, Footscray and Kororoit. It has also been confirmed that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will seek to move to the lower house by nominating for preselection in Essendon, to be vacated by the retiring Judy Maddigan. In his absence, the national executive has chosen incumbents Martin Pakula, Khalil Eideh and Bob Smith to head the ticket in Western Metropolitan (Smith currently represents South-Eastern Metropolitan).
• Helen Shardey, Victorian Shadow Health Minister and member for Caulfield, has indicated she will stand down at the next election. It had been reported she faced a preselection challenge from David Southwick, previously unsuccessful in the federal seat of Melbourne Ports in 2004 and for the state upper house Southern Metropolitan in 2006.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that former Liberal MP Phil Barresi, whom he describes as a “factionally unenthusiastic Krogerite”, has been given the green light to attempt to recover the seat of Deakin which he held from 1996 until his defeat in 2007. Barresi reportedly won on the first round over eccentric perennial Ken Aldred, who was dumped in favour of Barresi in 1996 after peddling weird conspiracy theories, and one Deanne Rhyll. Perhaps Barresi is encouraged by the precedent of 1984, when the Liberals unexpectedly recovered the seat (with some help from a redistribution) after losing it when the Hawke government was elected in 1983.
Elsewhere:
• Glenn Milne in The Australian reports on the Labor succession in the federal seat of Macquarie, which will be vacated at the next election by Bob Debus. As Milne tells it, Debus or his supporters put it about that his recent decision to withdraw from the ministry and bow out at the next election, which helped the Prime Minister no end as he sought to construct a new cabinet in the wake of Joel Fitzgibbon’s resignation, was conditional upon Debus being given the right to anoint his own successor. This was hotly disputed by Right powerbrokers who are bitterly opposed to Debus’s objective of freezing out industrial barrister Adam Searle, a Left faction colleague but personal rival.
• Two new goodies from Antony Green. An extensive paper for the New South Wales Parliamentary Library provides all manner of detail on the state’s Legislative Council election in 2007, while an accompanying blog post scrutinises the performance of the optional preferential above-the-line voting system introduced after the 1999 election produced a tablecloth-sized ballot paper and elected candidates from groupings that would be flattered by the “micro-party” designation. He further discusses the potential for such a system to resolve the issues which saw Steve Fielding elected to the Senate in 2004. For the more casual election enthusiast, a new 2010federal election calculator allows you set the two-party result to taste to find out the seat outcome in the event of a uniform swing. It turns out a 50-50 result would give the Coalition exactly half the seats and presumably allow it to govern with support of the three independents. Labor loses its majority at 50.8 per cent.
• Queensland independent MP Peter Wellington has introduced a private member’s bill providing for fixed three-year terms, with an escape clause if a new government cannot be formed in the wake of no-confidence motion and a provision allowing for a five-week postponement if there is a clash with a federal election or a “widespread natural disaster”. The major parties both support fixed four-year terms, which unlike Wellington’s proposal would require a referendum. Negotiations for such a referendum broke down last year when then Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg insisted on further unrelated reforms, but his successor John-Paul Langbroek has foreshadowed a more “flexible” approach in future discussions with the government.
• Christian Kerr of The Australian evaluates the Australian political blogosphere.
UPDATE: Thanks to Rebecca in comments for bringing my attention to the fact that Allison Ritchie, Labor member for the Tasmanian Legislative Council district of Pembroke, yesterday announced she would quit parliament after enduring a storm of controversy over her appointment of family members on her staff. This will presumably result in a by-election shortly in Pembroke, where Ritchie defeated an independent incumbent in 2001 and won re-election in 2007. The Electoral Act allows the government enormous latitude on the timing of such a by-election, so I’ll hold off on giving it its own post until its intentions become clearer. Ritchie claims to have been the victim of a plot from within her own party, which presumably explains why she has decided to go now rather than wait for the more convenient juncture of early next year, when a by-election could be held with the state election in March or the annual periodical upper house elections in May.
2,582 Comments
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It’s a bit of a pity Latham isn’t leading Labor now. Can you imagine the fracas that a Turnbull v. Latham battle would be in parliament? Boy would it be fun.
Turnbull’s behavior since taking over as Shadow Treasurer has continually rung warning bells. As leader of the Opposition it has only amplified. He has shown himself to be not a person I would ever want as a PM or an Opposition Leader.
Turnbull is obviously not going to resign over this.
I thought people were asserting the whole thing didn’t matter as ‘no one cares’?
GP – a deleted trace was obviously found on an outgoing server, rather than the incoming where it shoulda been.
Minichin is the man to tap Turnbull?
Is it just me who thought Steve Lewis wasnt that bad before all this??? Love how the MSM turns on Turnbull and ignores the role they have played in this episode??
It doesn’t matter if Turnbull didn’t know it was fake (well ok IF he knew it was fake then he’s really in the poo, but I seriously doubt that). The fact that HE placed so much store in it; the fact that HE used it to base HIS attack from 4 June onwards (well before the email was published) on Rudd and Swan, means his credibility is shot.
He is an ex-barrister and journo, plus he is expected to be considred as the next PM, if his accusations are based on fake emails what does that say about his judgement?
If the email was true, you’d have to say Rudd was gone. (in fact on Friday arvo a lot of us were thinking that), but it is not enough for Turnbull to say that was why he was quesitoning Rudd – it was up to him to check the veracity of his evidence before going on his attack.
If this has been a court case, the evidence would have been thrown out by the judge, and with it the case – and probably the Law Council (or whoever it is) would be looking very carefully at whether he should be disbarred.
Well this is the court of public opinion. His evidence has been thrown out…
Can you see any accusation he says against the Government from here on in having any credibility?
Oh Turnbull will be resigning, don’t worry about that. I agree TP @ 2349.
No 2348
However it was found, the point is that the Government’s initial reaction that there was no email was wrong.
The 7500 odd posts on the issue would suggest otherwise. (so would every front page in the country)
GP I dont think you have to be a hack to have heard and read the governments pronouncements that the email was fake from the weekend. Didnt need the AFP for that. Funny how the tele went with the front page despite Rudd’s office telling them it was a fake on friday night
How about Howard? He still has clout…
By that reasoning then you agree that Downer should have been sacked over giving $300m Sadam. Or Vanstone should have been sacked over the Australian citizens being put in a immigration camp.
“Email”, as Turnbull was alleging, meant an email from Charlton to Grech. No such email existed.
From the AFP site
“Preliminary results of those forensic examinations indicate that the e-mail referred to at the centre of this investigation has been created by a person or persons other than the purported author of the e-mail.”
I thought the signatory of the email was only known by the letter ‘A’. i’d like to check but i can’t remember where I saw this ‘fake’ email. Has anyone got a link to the fake email?
Of course! Because the AFP has people specially trained in forensic examination of computers, e.g. recovering deleted files, tracing the flow of spoofed emails etc.
That is DIFFERENT than simply doing a search through a massive archive full of tens of thousands of emails.
Remember, the person who wrote and sent this email from a treasury computer wanted to make it look like it was sent from PM&C hence it was deleted, hence the AFP had to recover it after it had been deleted.
Dogma those citizens had quite abit to do with them being put in immigration camps…
Sides Swan still hasnt answered why the heck he called one specific dealer or why his case was raised in a meeting?
The problem the Liberal Party now have apart from a week of Parliament to live through is that information from the AFP and AG investigation is just going to keep coming over the weeks. Everyone one will damn Turnbull and the Libs.
He has to go soon.
Of course! Because the afp has people specially trained in forensic examination of computers, e.g. recovering deleted files and tracing the flow of spoofed emails etc.
That is different than simply doing a search through a massive archive full of tens of thousands of sent and received emails.
Remember, the person who wrote and sent this email from a treasury computer wanted to make it look like it was sent from pm&C hence it was deleted, hence the afp had to recover it after it had been deleted.
#2343 – if the AFP couldn’t & didn’t find the email, we should demand our money back and get them to sweep the streets instead.
Sowhat??! They weren’t the one’s using it to discredit their opposition.
When they heard the evidence, took it on face value BUT they then CHECKED its veracity by checking the emails between the PMO and Greatch.
Then they called it for what it was.
Is there any evidence that Turnbull did any checking at all before he started using it to base his attack??
You actually think Turnbull showed good judgement?
Last week started so well with 53/47 and now all of this
Of course, because the AFP can do forensic searches and recovery on deleted files, while the departments themselves probably only have people capable of doing searches through archives.
Remember, this email was sent from treasury, but made to look like it was sent from PM&C TO treasury!
Problem with ‘clout’ is it’s not needed in the party as such, but rather with Turnbull. Is there anyone that he would listen to? He doesn’t think that anyone in the parliamentary party is his intellectual or personal equal. I also get the feeling he has little respect for Howard. If someone was gonna tap him it might need to be via Lucy.
You’re right Squiggle, but eveyrone is taking it as read that it is supposed to be from Charlton. That is who the “purported author was”
NO they were right, they were looking for the alleged email, not for secret scammed one. The alleged email didn’t and doesn’t exist. ie a real email from PMO to Grech.
The problem is you’ve got a leader who doesn’t has poor political skills.
Whatever his capabilities as a minister, whatever his knowledge about banks, he is not actually a politician. He is John Hewson Mark II, a merchant banker shoe horned into a safe Liberal seat.
So what happens to Mesma??
The alleged email was supposedly sent from PM&C to treasury, we found out today it was actually sent from Treasury and made to look like it came from PM&C.
Therefore it is not surprising that the initial searchers were ultimately looking for something that never existed.
And add to that the fact it must’ve been deleted off treasury computers, which means the AFP must’ve recovered it off a hard disc.
GP, you cant be serious. the government didnt find the email from the PM’s office because it is a FAKE. so they were supposed to know where the fake was?? What the hell does it take for you to admit your side is wrong??
After the next election she will jump ship and become a minister in the W.A. government.
There’s actually a fair bit of truth in that. A more experienced politician would have been calling for an enquiry on Friday, not calling for Rudd to resign. Had MT done that, then he would now still be in a reasonable position.
It was Turnbull’s best week remember!
Mesma should be deposed as deputy leader. Keep her in the current shadow ministry.
She’ll be persuaded to switch to WA Politics and Dr Rosanna Capolingua will be elecgted ib Curtin and will be fastracked as leader
So who should replace her?
Keane and co are having fun as to who would play the role of each in a movie of this event.
Too harsh. Hewson was a better politican than Turnbull.
Remember Hewson had Hawke’s measure. (but then some bloke named PJK came along…)
Whatever happens after this week, I don’t think anyone can doubt Rudd’s political smarts.
In sensational news:
The corporate bookmakers have SUSPENDED betting on the LNP Leader at the next election. Damn, I was two seconds away from throwing $30 on Robb @ $16.
Christopher Pyne. Then at the next election Pyne loses his seat, so the deputy leader of a party loses his seat, thus adding another wonderful chapter to the history of Australian politics.
Problem for Liberals in dropping in some fancy new name fast track…is they are up against a sharp political machine that has heaps of discipline. They have to change their style of politics.
They should have been me too-ing Rudd from the beginning, regaining credibility, regrouping before trying to differentiate themselves. But what happened? Cardboard cut outs!
Put simply we should have stayed with Nelson.
Talk about shifting the goalposts! So if the AFP find any email anywhere Turnbull is off the hook?? ROTFL Funny Turnbull didn’t produce it in parliament if this found email is his “salvation”
As TP says, the government says they searched Treasury and PMC computers for the alleged email, and they didn’t find it. They were right – the AFP has now established it was removed.
Had to laugh at Turnbull earlier tonight trying to claim that Swan was responsible for someone in Treasury cooking this up. So was Swan trying to force Swan to resign???
Nah she’s safe – she’ll be taking credit for Fitzgibbon for a good 12 more months.
I think I said very early on that if Rudd was doing a reverse scam on Turnbull I would forever more live in awe of him. Pretty close.
Smartest thing you’ve said all night.
If you’d stayed with Nelson, people would still think Turnbull was a winner!
Grog #2367
Thanks. I’ve got that fact in my little mix-master, spinning around, but its not helping
What I’m wondering is, why has everyone assumed andrew charlton is the ‘A’?
What happens if the document discovered is not fake, but incorrectly ascribed?
Has anyone kept a copy/link of what the ‘aleged fake’ email looks like?
As to why Turnbull used this nonsense when a wiser head woudl have checked it out first, I think the reason is obvious. He knew he was floundering in the polls, the economy is starting to turn around, and so he needs something. After all, he is our next PM! Or at least, he was. A drowning man grabbing for an anchor.
For real?
That semeed to be the only logical (?) end to Turnbull’s theory.
Wish I was a cartoonist…any number of things you could draw to depict Turnbull in this.
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