The latest Essential Research survey was conducted during the worst period for Labor of the “utegate” saga, from June 17 to 21, but it shows Labor’s two-party lead steady on 57-43. Further questions: would respondents support tax increases to improve spending on services and infrastructure (mostly not); which taxes would you most and least care to have increased (alcohol and cigarettes okay, GST and petrol big no); whether the government’s emissions trading scheme is tough enough (leaning towards no, but with a high don’t know response); who should or will be Labor’s next prime minister (big win for Julia Gillard on both counts); whether Peter Costello’s departure will be good or bad for the Liberal Party (split decision).
UPDATE: Essential Research have been in touch to point out that their results are composites of two weeks’ polling, and each survey is mostly completed by the weekend, so the impact of the OzCar issue should not be overstated.
Two news nuggets to go:
• State upper house member Lee Rhiannon has been confirmed as the Greens’ lead Senate candidate for New South Wales. The Greens have only previously won a Senate seat in the state in 2001, when they benefited from the one-off of One Nation preferences, but it’s conceivable that a rise in the Labor vote at the next election (assuming it’s a half-Senate rather than a double dissolution) could deliver them enough preferences to secure a seat at the expense of the Liberals. Rhiannon will quit her state seat when the election is called, at which point the Greens will choose her replacement.
• The Australian Parliamentary Library has published a newly updated elections timetable, laying out what might happen and when at federal, state and territory level.
Finally, a reminder that I’m on semi-holiday so apologies if comment moderation isn’t being dealt with promptly.
3,436 Comments
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Monday. The whole tedious debate had already started in the House.
No, he was sprung on the Friday night.
From my facebook page:
Ha ha Turnbull, the email is a fake and you are utterly pwned you pompous tool.
June 19 at 11:34pm · Comment · LikeUnlike
OK, so Morgan reflects support for the government while the issue was in doubt.
I thought it was pure shock first and then anger because he hasn’t really done the nasty personal stuff too much since the election.
Perhaps he thought the Libs would not do it either so was angry that he now had to waste time on protecting his integrity. We’d be angry too.
Gloves are off now so Turnbull won’t get away with it again.
the problem for Turnbull now is that the senior Libs will want to vet everything he does and MT won’t like that one little bit. He can only be restrained for so long because he is sure he knows best.
I don’t agree with those who say he will learn from this. He was supposedly censured by a Judge and didn’t heed it so why would this change him.
I think Rudd gave a presser before 7.00 pm on the Friday but I might be wrong. If it was by 7.00 pm the Libs must think they have been set up OR that Grech has blabbed.
Now we know the “flakey” factor: 2% (if Morgan is accurate).
Morgan must be so annyoned that the news moved so fast. What people thought 7 days ago is woefully out of date on this issue.
Yes it was about 12:45 after Parliament had started. Hockey got up to tell the House the “good news” that the email was a fake.
Lindsay Tanner on Lateline Friday night said the government’s exhaustive computer searches couldn’t find it, thus they suspect it is a fake.
Tanner even warned Turnbull to “be careful” about making claims based on that email.
No, just looked (which is what I should have done first).
Monday was the day.
Friday was when Rudd claimed it was fake, but not when it was confirmed by the AFP as fake.
The Government were certainly claiming it was a fake from the get go. However, the reports of it actually being a fake did not occur until Monday.
What can the Libs do with Turnbull? If they dump they have to worry about his undermining them from the back bench if they keep him they have no chance and there is always the chance it could get worse. Turnbull is guy who could explode at anytime when he doesn’t get his own way.
Rudd I think is calmer the greater the challenge and is probably why he blows up over trivial things, he lets the control go. Turnbull’s anger is closer to the surface under pressure and seems to be about not getting his own way, or people not letting things go the way he wants, like a journo question he doesn’t want to come up at the time. He looks like he is about to belt journos who sticking to an unpleasant line, which makes him an easy target.
My recollection is that when the committee hearings finished at 4pm (I think) things looked very bad for Rudd, but by the time I got home from shopping at about 8pm all was revealed and I cheered up again.
Since Monday we’ve seen Turnbull In Wonderland, learned that Grech was a Mole, heard about secret meetings and seen Parliament’s time wasted with not only repetitive questions but with stupid points of order and (on three? occasions) opposition gag motions moved by Abbott to shut up answers he didn’t like.
I’m pleased to see the movement in the Morgan poll, but now that it is here, strangely enough, I wonder if it will increase the pressure on Malcolm’s leadership
The vibe I get from today’s papers, with their ‘winter recess/review of the last week” articles, is
1) Turnbull over-reached and,
2) Wayne Swan has a case to answer and has been let off.
Its as though any electoral momentum from the issue (57/43 to 55/45) has been blown away by over-reaching.
Hockey isn’t conceding it is a fake until the AFP files their report remember, here is him on Lateline:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_oUMRzblqyb4/SkIVgepHw3I/AAAAAAAAA_c/8YyvioK8uM4/s400/who+sez+email+fake.jpg
So the whole period that Morgam was polling the electorate had an accusation made at the hearing which was splashed across the news services and a denial from Rudd in defense. That man certainly does have a high trustworthy factor.
Rudd was angry not nervous, he called Turnbull a grub across the table didn’t he?
You don’t know that yet. You’d need to wait until the next round of polling to be able to claim that.
I don’t think the whole episode is going to change the polling much either way. There’ll be a slow downwards trend for polling to the next election and the Government will be returned with a slightly reduced majority and a better position in the Senate.
The Newspoll next Tuesday should tell us a lot in that regard, because most of it will be done on Sat and Sun.
True. I suspect there will be an increase from the 53/47 result but nothing like what some people on here are expecting.
There might be a dead cat bounce.
And the papers today, right on cue for Newspoll, have more stories about Rudd and mates.
Let’s see what they spin on Sat and Sunup until polling ends.
There should have been a reinforcement of people’s negative character assessment of Turnbull from the later TV snippets of him on the defensive and the Grech Liberal Party revelations. It ought to have some negative effect over time. My wild guess would be a recognizeable % shift to Labor from whatever it was before. And fatal damage to Turnbull’s electability.
I was telling anyone who would listen on Saturday that the email was fake and that Turnbull had ‘MHS’ed himself, based on what came out on this blog friday night. What people had seen in the news to that point had them of the belief that Rudd was in trouble and I dont think too many people polled over the weekend would have factored ‘fake email’ into their response
India & China as superpowers, I’d agree. Poland? Few mineral resources (esp long-term ones), oceanic sea-routes accessible only via the Baltic, a significant highly conservative agrarian (& urban) religious population (RC) which, a generation ago, chose to use preIndustrial farm “machinery”, inc horse-drawn carts, pitchforks (I have photos!)? (BTW, it was the Polish Government which sent its horse-mounted lance-equipped cavalry out to meet the Panzers in September 1939; & probably their grandkids who made the preIR farm machinery choice). Poland is fairly much Ireland re-visited before the diaspora started to reverse, with a fair way to catch up; and much of Ireland’s “bubble”, like Iceland’s, came from financial dealings what caused the GFC.
Naaah, can’t see it myself.
USA? Hell, 60 years ago, many would have said UK & its empire; might still have been nominated, until Thatcher shut down mines & heavy manufacturing.
I’d add Indonesia (instead of Poland). Huge industrious, entrepreneurial (big & small business) & wealth-seeking population, mineral & other resources (inc oil), intrepid seafarers, Asia-Pacific nation. Asian states have long histories of small-time entrepreneurship, starting with local markets, moving up to shops, bigger shops … (and hoarding gold and other “portable” commodities)
Have Morgans ever done a poll on peoples assessment of various newspaper’s honesty? Would be interesting if one were done on murdoch papers to see how many or few pick up on their liberal bias.
Fellow bludgers, don’t make the same mistake that many media commentators make, ie reading too much into one poll from one pollster.
1. The margin of error on this poll is 3.3%, as the sample is 897 people.
2. Whilst bludgers here have been mesmerised by the events of the last week or so, it mostly washed over the public. Yes, in the end Turnbull will have been the most damaged, but no one will be a “winner”. The politicans and the media will be marked down for the whole affair.
As for effects on polling, I doubt very much that voting intentions will change as a result of this issue. It just doesn’t interest the voters.
Turnbull’s ratings will probably suffer, but he already is in such a poor state, that they couldn’t get too much worse.
Why would they bother?
Well Rudd Labor should get a big bounce in SA since they had already been primed with a previous fake involving the Liberals.
They do these types of polls all the time as marketing research.
PAAPTSEF @ #3275
“I dont think too many people polled over the weekend would have factored ‘fake email’ into their response.”
Rudd’s announcements re the Inquiries were made after (I think) the evening news bulletins (Called in the Auditor General), then not long before Lateline (added the AFP) – and after many editions of Saturday’s papers, especially the early and regional editions) were “put to bed”. The next major news bulletin would have been Channel 10’s 5.00pm Saturday news – and Saturday isn’t a big news night. Hence many people Morgan polled Saturday (and Sunday morning) might not have known that utegate had taken a dramatic turn the previous evening.
GG @ 3372 – Funniest thing I’ve read in a long while!!!
i.e. 3272.
It would just further inflate the already vastly inflated idea that newspapers have of their own importance. If newspapers influenced politics, Rudd would never have become PM in the first place.
The only add campaign that Labor needs to run are short few second snippets of Turnbull and Hockey being asked about the fake email on a number of occassions and their initial response. That is it. And maybe insert a few newspaper headlines of recent.
Christian Kerr is full of class.
” Michael Jackson died so that Turnbull might live “
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/25/same-sex-marriage
WELL DONE POSSUM
Aristotle I disgree that the media will be marked down for this by the average voter. They were quite content to hang Turnbull out to dry and avoid any responsibility. There has been disappointingly such little scrutiny of the media’s role in this. As for Christian Kerr, how low can you go???
ru,
To be fair, Kerr doesn’t write the headline. The reference within the story was more about the media caravan moving on.
1. Wait for Media Watch next week.
2. Would you say the media should not have run with the story at all? If provided with evidence of possible wrong-doing on the part of the Government surely it’s newsworthy if it doesn’t look obviously fake.
Here they are, the great moments of history:
Friday, 19/6, 3:40pm, Erica read Email.
3:48pm There was short email from the PMO – Grech
3:49pm Diog has consigned Rudd into the dustbin of history.
4:13pm Diog, re-affirmed Rudd’s a dud.
4:15pm Glen joined Diog.
4:20pm, Poss said: “I’m wondering what you people are smoking in here today?”
4:35pm Diog said: “Gone”
4:40pm Glen re-joined Diog: “Game, set, match….”
4:42pm David Speers had just wet himself.
5:20pm Turnbull declared that Rudd and Swan are dead.
8:07pm Rudd declared Turnbull is dead.
The rest is history
Ltep, firstly, there is a difference between “the media” and The Australian, which is nothing but a Liberal Party attack dog. Secondly, we can’t make a judgement about this until we see the AFP report and learn how deeply certain News Ltd “journalists” were involved in this.
The interesting thing about the Grech thing is that it seems to be the Liberals backgrounding the media.
Why, I wonder?
Its usually difficult to predict how the polls will go, and this week more so as things swung so dramatically. The Libs problem is that they were 47/53 last newspoll so that was a high water mark in any event- is was going to get worse even without the fake email stuff, but any such shift would be trouble for Turnbull.
I hope he stays; he’s so bad, its good for Labor
Oh I’d definitely agree with that. The Australian really is a joke, possibly second only to The West Australian as most blatantly partisan paper in the country.
ltep I would have expected the media to run with it, but also to provide some criticism of themselves for their role in it all. After all, the tele printed the email after Rudd’s office had denied its existence, and without referring to the denial
Which people and what were they expecting ltep?
Looks like Christian Kerr is going to start every story with ‘rudd running away from utegate’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25693728-5013871,00.html
The ute stuff proves how rabid the murdoch media are. How unsurprising that they just keep on going as before, unpeturbured by the egg on their faces.
I still want to know how the utegate term stuck- it’s not finns fault is it?? Ironically, its actually insulting that was a ‘gate’ but the fake email certainly got it to that status!!
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