The latest Morgan face-to-face survey of 897 respondents was conducted last weekend, at the worst possible time for Labor with respect to “utegate”, and it shows their two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 55-45. This is Labor’s weakest showing at a Morgan face-to-face poll since August 2008, a month before Malcolm Turnbull replaced Brendan Nelson as Liberal leader. Their primary vote is down from 48.5 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up from 38 per cent to 41 per cent. The Greens are up from 7 per cent to 8.5 per cent; for what it’s worth, Family First are down from 2.5 per cent to 1 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Morgan: 55-45
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ShowsOn the ALP need to stop nominating bullyboy union bosses or left wing eco lawyers….
Rudd with Rove and Bruno:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,6693510,00.jpg
Yeah it is really damaging the federal government having all those unionists in there.
“Turnbull may be dumped within days”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25703645-5007133,00.html
So many choice quotes!
Interesting. On the front page photo of Rove, Kevin, and Bruno in the Australian there is a link titled “PM in a panic”. When one clicks on the link, the page is not found. They must have just got word of the Newspoll results…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25703645-5006784,00.html
They arent representative of society that’s all Shows…
Yes, they are all robots that are delivered into the community by storks.
I don’t think lawyers and accountants are “representative of society” either.
Jesus Christ.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25704929-601,00.html
Turnbull may have thought this 6 week break would have saved his bacon but it appears he’s done for…
This is funny considering that Hockey came across like a total buffoon last week both in parliament and on Lateline. Remember, Hockey said on Lateline that he didn’t know if the email was fake, here is him on Lateline:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_oUMRzblqyb4/SkIVgepHw3I/AAAAAAAAA_c/8YyvioK8uM4/s400/who+sez+email+fake.jpg
Shows
Goddammit, now everyone knows.
860
ShowsOn me neither…
Looks like it’ll be a Sunrise election after all….
Australians have a sense of fair play, they don’t think using fake documents to score political points is fair. So many of them have changed their opinions of Turnbull accordingly.
I don’t see the point with the Liberals changing to Hockey, he won’t do any better than Turnbull, but he doesn’t have hundreds of millions to bankroll the Liberal election campaign.
The Liberals may as well stick with Turnbull, and effectively charge him millions of dollars for the right to be their candidate.
And they have all been sent back in time to save John Connor from WorkChoices.
Who is going to pay for the Liberal election campaign? You guys need Turnbull, he may be a hopeless politician, but he has the money to pay for the campaign by himself, and he as the ego to motivate him to do it.
In the Australian’s comment on the Newspoll results linked to by Oz #861, the Fairfax poll results are also mentioned. It is the first time that I recall that News Ltd have referenced a Fairfax poll. The message must have passed down from Rupert that Malcolm is persona non grata
How do the mechanics of a leadership challeng work? Can it be done when parliament is not sitting with MP’s voting from a distance? What electoral system do they use with three or more candidates – Optional preferencial voting?
Do they get to find out who the winner of the ‘leader’ ballot is before voting for the ‘deputy leader’ or is it done in one go?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25704929-601,00.html
As far as I know there are no proxy votes. The person must be present in the party room, on the day, in order to vote. If they can’t get there in time then they don’t get to vote.
The Australian article says a challenge is unlikely this week because some Liberals are overseas, e.g. Costello and Pyne.
How much did Turnbull donate last time? Would he still chuck a lowsy couple of Mill spare change from his back pocket if he was just an opposition spokesperson?
I’d be assuming that they would callfor a party room meeting in the normal matter, but because they aren’t sitting, all the MP’s would be required to fly into Canberra especially for that meeting – when the WA Libs had a similar situation with Paul Omodei, it was during a Parliamentry Recess from memory.
If Turnbull is dumped as leader, don’t expect him to hang around on the back bench. He could quit immediately forcing a by-election that the Liberals don’t want, that’s the kind of egotist I think he is.
Secondly, I think Barnaby Joyce and Warren Truss should be allowed to vote in a Liberal leadership ballot because they are both party leaders in their respective chambers, and they are both technically Liberals as well as Nationals.
I’ll bet these gentlemen are getting quite a few calls on thier mobiles atm
I think Costello is in the “anyone but myself or Malcolm” camp.
Pyne, I’m not so sure. I guess he will vote for whoever can help him become deputy leader.
Whatever happens, the Liberals should take the opportunity to dump Julie Bishop as deputy leader.
But Shows they werent elected as LNPers hence no vote…
Who are the numbers men in the Coalition?
Even “Our ABC” is reporting the bad polling for Turnbull.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2610795.htm?section=justin
http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-weaker-than-when-he-began-20090628-d1b3.html
Isn’t Senator Ronaldson Turnbull’s numbers man?
I have no idea who Hockey’s would be. If it is Pyne then Turnbull will win.
So if they want to have the vote before the net sitting they all have to haul their butts off to Canberra. Thats a bit harsh on the poor dears.
Although the period between now and the challenge is ‘waisted time’ limbo when there attacks on the ALP won’t get traction. Perhaps its a good thing for them that they have some time to think – they can have a good long hard look at themselves and ask themselves what they want to be. Maybe with the extra time they won’t rush into any poor decisions but will get the best candidate.
I always though that would be Turnbull but Costello used to make me laugh also. Abott isn’t stupid, there’s something almost human about him, which is a rare feat for a Tory but he is also a wacko scarey fruitloop. Hockey is kinda cute in an ugly sort of way – he reminds me of a lot of Tory’s I know personally and he may therefore be able to shore up the base which is what is needed right now. Pyne is also a typical Tory but he’s more like Dracula, whereas Hockey is a more innocent vampire (Tory in this analogy) like ‘The Count” from Sesomy Street.
Glen did you see my post at 499 on Germany?
Let’s face it. Turnball can’t moon walk and chew gum…
Just when we thought that Australia might get started on its ETS, as well.
Now who knows how the splits involved in choosing a new leader will interact with the splits on ETS support.
I guess that the new leader will still want to avoid a DD trigger unless they look like having a wonderful honeymoon period as leader.
THM the fact of the matter is the Greens lack a real leader…
They need another Joschka Fischer….
I think it is a monty for a CDU/CSU + FDP Coalition Government…
Whatever, I am severe. And the attitude is about laxity.
Just in case, I would like to remind anyone who cares, that I am and remain a Labor leaner.
But why, may I ask, is Kevin involved in this foolish thing, the free second hand ute.
Sure, in pre election mode, ‘all hands on deck’. A battered car will do.
But should it not have gone to the parking lot, immediately after the election.
Like, who if anyone, is using it now?
Have not noticed it in Parliament press stops/drive offs.
Interesting point. In order to be more popular than Turnbull, the next Liberal leader must support the CPRS legislation (which Turnbull is likely to do eventually). But if a Liberal leadership candidate says that they will instruct the party to vote for the CPRS, they probably won’t get enough votes to be elected leader.
Golly!
Jeez, I take a few hours off to watch a couple of good movies (Proof and AVP-R) and the world’s turned upside down!
What a lovely way to come back to earth.
I wasn’t talking about Turnbull being in trouble. It’s Sloppy Joe as the leadership fave (bar Peter “Lucky” Costello).
Can it be true? Is there really a God?
Will we find out primary vote polling detail tomorrow morning?
Hockey is the worst leadership option except for all the others.
Nielsen: 58/44
Primaries 46/37
Newspoll: 56/44
Primaries 44/37
Galaxy: 56/44
I don’t understand what Hockey offers that Turnbull doesn’t. Less arrogance? Maybe. But also a lot less dollars.
Doh. I meant 58/42
No, I think he’d be the worst. The man’s a total buffoon. Doesn’t know anything about tactics, just blusters.
At least Abbott came through last week with some (not much, I’ll admit, but some) of his dignity intact. He stayed cool (when you take into account his usual rabid standards) and held up his end if not for a brilliant innings, at least for a respectable knock. But Hockey? A disaster, now and to come.
What am I writing? Abbott as Leader? Preposterous… but there you are.
Nah… can’t happen. Turnbull will stay, but with a full harness and leash araldited onto his mouth.
I like how Glenn Milne sagely advices Malcolm Turnball about putting up and shutting up, only to say that “Stories are beginning to filter through” with regards to the Government allegedly not taking too kindly to adverse media or criticism (I don’t know many Governments that do, but I digress…).
Does anyone else find this a tad ironic? Maybe Glenn should follow some of his own advice about putting up!?
It’s a funny old world.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25703955-33435,00.html
New thread.
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