An unprecedented triple whammy of opinion polls is disastrous enough for the Coalition to lend force to Dennis Shanahan’s assertion that “Malcolm Turnbull’s political career has been smashed in just one week”. In turn:
• Arriving a day earlier than usual, Newspoll shows that the Coalition recovery detected a fortnight ago has come to a sudden end, with Labor’s lead back out from 53-47 to 56-44. The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent. However, the real shock is that Turnbull’s personal ratings have suffered what Shanahan calls “the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history”: his approval rating has plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent, while his disapproval is up from 37 per cent to 58 per cent. Fifty-two per cent do not believe that John Grant received preferential treatment from the Prime Minister against only 24 per cent who do. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 57-25 to 65-18.
• ACNielsen, which is hopefully back to monthly polling as we enter the second half of the term, has Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 46 per cent while the Coalition’s is down six to 37 per cent. Fifty-three per cent say the OzCar affair has left them with a less favourable impression of Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval is down 11 points to 32 per cent with his disapproval has shot up 13 points to 60 per cent. Turnbull comes third as preferred Liberal leader with 18 per cent, behind Peter Costello on 37 per cent and Joe Hockey on 21 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 64-28 to 66-25, and his approval rating is up three points to 67 per cent.
• Galaxy has Labor’s primary vote up a point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s down two to 30 per cent. Sixty-one per cent believe Kevin Rudd has been open and honest about the OzCar affair, while 51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.
Once again, Victoria dominates the latest round of electoral news:
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has tabled two major reports which I haven’t got round to sinking my teeth into: the regular conduct of the federal election report, and that into the Commwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that complicated quarreling in the Victorian ALP has thrown up “rogue challengers” against at least ten state MPs. Keilor MP George Seitz, who faces enforced retirement in the wake of the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council, is said to be largely reponsible: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews identifies his state nominees as Tomislav Tomic (against Bundoora MP Colin Brooks), Seeralan Arumugam Gunaratnam (Carrum MP Jenny Lindell), Raymond Congreve (Lara MP John Eren), Rosa Mitrevski (Mill Park MP Lily D’Ambrosio), Philip Cassar (Mordialloc MP Janice Munt), Teodoro Tuason (Narre Warren North MP Luke Donnellan), Teresa Kiselis and Mate Barun (both taking on Northcote MP Fiona Richardson), Josefina Agustin (Prahran MP Tony Lupton), and Blagoja Bozinovski (Thomastown MP Peter Batchelor). For good measure, Seitz candidate Manfred Kriechbaum is taking on federal MP Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell. Other challengers are explained by Wallace in terms the “stability pact” forged between the Left and the Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and Steven Conroy, and counter-moves by rival Right unions seeking to forge ties with some of the more militant unions of the Left. This presumably accounts for Australian Manufacturing Workers Union candidate Andrew Richards joining the aforementioned Kriechbaum in a three-horse race against Vamvakinou in Calwell, Lisa Zanatta of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union challenging Lynne Kosky in Altona, and Kathleen Matthews-Ward of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association joining the Seitz challengers to Fiona Richardson in Northcote. The option of referring preselections to the party’s national executive remains available to John Brumby, who must be sorely tempted.
• Other challenges appear more obscure. A third Labor Unity candidate, Rick Garotti, is listed as a nominee against incumbent Craig Langdon in Ivanoe, in addition to the previously discussed Anthony Carbines. In Preston, Labor Unity MP Robin Scott is being challenged by Moreland councillor Anthony Helou (once of the Socialist Left, but more recently of Labor Unity) and Tamer Kairouz, said by Landeryou to be backed by upper house MP Nazih Elasmar, a principal of a Right sub-faction also linked with Theo Theophanous (not sure if any relation to Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz). Two Socialist Left members are under challenge from factional colleagues, which Andrew Landeryou suggests can be put down to dealings between the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and unions on the Right: Yuroke MP Liz Beattie faces a challenge from Colleen Gibbs, an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, while Darebin councillor Timothy Laurence has nominated against Steve Herbert in Eltham. Andrew Lappos, who in the past has been associated with the Left, is listed as a challenger to the Right’s Telmo Languiller in Derrimut, but it was reported last week that Languiller’s preselection had been secured by the national executive.
• The preselection contest for Brunswick has taken on new significance with the news that Phil Cleary will contest the seat as an independent. Cleary defeated the Labor candidate in the federal seat of Wills in the 1992 by-election that followed Bob Hawke’s retirement and was narrowly re-elected in 1993, before losing to Labor’s Kelvin Thomson in 1996. He has more recently worked for the Electrical Trades Union, which under the leadership of Dean Mighell has disaffiliated with the ALP and given support to the Greens. Three candidates are listed for Labor preselection, each a colleague of outgoing member Carlo Carli in the Socialist Left: Jane Garrett, Slater and Gordon lawyer and former adviser to Steve Bracks; Enver Erdogan, 23-year-old Moreland councillor and staffer to House of Represenatatives Speaker Harry Jenkins, said to be aligned with the Kim Carr sub-faction; and Alice Pryor, also a Moreland councillor, aligned with the rival Left sub-faction associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. Former party state secretary Eric Locke has proved a non-starter; Andrew Landeryou reports he has withdrawn in favour of Garrett, who would appear to be the front-runner. According to David Rood of The Age, Garrett also has the backing of John Brumby.
• Andrew Landeryou further reports that National Union of Workers state secretary Antony Thow has been “elected unopposed” for the third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket. If that means what it appears to, it’s a significant story the mainstream media appears to have ignored, as Labor would seem very likely on current form to repeat its 2007 election feat of winning a third seat.
• The Moonee Valley Community News reports it is “not expected” that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will be opposed in the Labor preselection for Essendon, to which the party has assigned him so sitting member South Eastern Metropolitan MLC Bob Smith can be given a safer seat in Western Metropolitan. Mark Kennedy, a former mayor of Moonee Valley, was earlier reported to have ambitions to replace the retiring Judy Maddigan.
• Federal Liberal MP Chris Pearce has announced he will not seek re-election in his Melbourne seat of Aston. Pearce gave his party a morale-boosting by-election win in the seat in July 2001, limiting the Labor swing to 3.7 per cent – which has since stood as exhibit A in the case that the Howard government’s re-election the following November could not entirely be put down to the subsequent Tampa episode and September 11. He was closely associated throughout his time in politics with Peter Costello, and the fact and timing of his departure have inevitably been linked to Costello’s shock announcement early last week. No discussion yet that I’m aware of as to who might replace him. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that “another swathe of resignations” from federal Liberals is expected when New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised early next year, although no names are named.
• The ABC reports that three Western Australian state Labor MPs, headed by the factionally unaligned Alannah MacTiernan, have moved at state conference for preselection reforms allowing “compulsory secret ballots for preselections, with delegates completing their own papers”.
1,641 Comments
These polls are all uteful.
The Libs need to avoid Monty Burns leaders. Perhaps Bishop (the better Bishop) could take the helm. What about an Abbott/Bishop combo? That would give the cartoonists some fun.
Wow. Just wow.
When was the last time we saw anything that moved the polls quite like this? Tampa?
Nup. BB. Stay with the movies. The endings work, more or less.
I would have posted this in the SA thing. But.
If Nicole Cornes had the opportunity to stand again in Boothby or somewhere, she would rock in. Nicole would save the Libs in SA, if she could bear to do it.
She is truly talented, smart, and so.
Not to mention rather gorgeous to look at. Which does not count, of course.
Milne’s saying that journalists are apprehensive about email public servants after the AFP got involved in Utegate, and that – shock horror – a commentator was punished for being anti-Rudd. Poor diddums. He should have thought of that when he became one of the Libs’ most rampant yodellers, and accepted at face value peddled falsehoods spread deliberately to bring down the government on a tissue of lies. Did he really expect a mere inter-departmental inquiry? If that’s all Rudd had done Milne would have been screaming from the rooftops that Rudd had something to hide.
Poor darling, he’s just seen off his hero Costello, and now the new crush, Turnbull, is about to get the chop. Still fighting? Held his ground? I know it’s trite, but that Monty Ptyhon knight is the perfect metaphor for Turnbull over the past week.
The reason they think they can say anything, do anything, forge any lie, peddle any fake document, bring down a government on a technical matter of parliamentary procedure is that they still don’t get that they lost the last election. They seem to genuinely believe the public is on a knife’s edge waiting for a decent excuse to cover their mass desertion of Labor, and come running back to the Coalition. There’s years in this delusion for Labor if they play their cards right.
So I think that we can use the Newspoll figures released so far to deduce that when the full primaries are published we will get:
ALP 44, Lib 33, NP 4, Green 11 and Others 8
which means no increase for the minor parties despite all the mud being flung about.
Doubt was really about nothing much at all, but they all did it so well. Alien v. Predator – Resurrection was quite scary but ultimately forgettable in that “I’m still glad I saw it” sort of way. The wife nearly fled to bed two or three times, and it did look gorgeous on the Big Screen we have (as did Doubt).
All in all a good night’s entertainment with the icing on the cake after when I read the results of all three polls.
I’m still not sure whether I’m dreaming, though. Are they actually seriously thinking of putting Hockey in as leader? He’s a dill!
Newspoll shows a steady non-major party total but we are yet to see if there is any movement between Greens and ‘Other’ in either direction.
ACNielsen shows a 4% increase in combined Greens/Other with further break down yet to be released I think.
Galaxy shows a 1% increase in combined Greens/Other with further break down yet to be released I think.
This averages out to a 1.666% increase in the combined Greens/Other vote across the three polls. Well within the margin of error but overall it suggests that there has been a small – very small – move away from the major parties.
It’s a little bit disappointing to see a lack of serious challenges to clear out the deadwood in the Vic parliament. Several of the MPs targeted by Seitz really deserve to go, but are only being challenged by nonentities. One can only hope that the woman challenging hopeless fool Kosky might have a bit of luck, but alas I doubt it.
I think all the guff about Cleary in Brunswick is a bit of a beatup. He was well-known fifteen years ago, and he’s faded well out of the limelight since then. I doubt he’ll top five percent, most of which will be would-be Green primaries that’ll come back on preferences.
BB
Look at that polling – they simply cannot continue with Turnbull. Therefore they need someone else. Robb = Monty Burns, Abbott = his namesake: very religious + he puts off a lot of people, Costello has departed, Bishop had enough trouble getting support as treasury spokeperson let alone leader (but apart from that she could be okay), no way they can make a National the COALition leader in the current climate, Hockey therefore wins by default. Besides he does have some charactor.
Doubt it really, BB.
Would the Libs have the courage to ditch their only viable player?
I reckon they lack the guts to remove Malcolm, which gives them nowhere to go.
Now and into the next election.
And, I have to say, I have a perfect 8 in the footy tipping this weekend.
Once the ball of leadership speculation starts rolling the leader tends to go in the end (with plenty of exceptions though). Even if they stick with Turnbull at the next sitting, that is no guarantee that he won’t get the boot early in the new year etc. Don’t get me wrong, I prefer Turnbull to almost every Lib coz he comes across as somewhat moderate but don’t forget that he only narrowly won the leadership vote last time.
) has a lot assetts such as the green properties.
Politics is sometimes like any number of boardgames, for example Monopoly: once you are in a bad spot circumstances inevitably lead you to an even worse situation. Turnbull has the waterworks (and a rain-making machine like from the videoclip for the song ‘running up that hill’) but thats about it – for now Rudd has both Mayfair and Park Lane – and Brown, though on the verge of bankruptcy (
What the Liberal Party Room will be saying to Malcolm in light of the above 3 polls
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8SevqHN1UM
The nonsense pedaled by papers and Liberal hacks most of last week about the Liberals having a watertight case against Swan seems to have taken a nasty hit from the voters too, seeing few believe Grant got any preferential treatment.
[But the biggest problem for Mr Turnbull is the fall in voter satisfaction with the way he is doing is job -- from 44 per cent two weeks ago to just 25 per cent last weekend, while dissatisfaction rose 21 points to 58 per cent.
This is the single biggest fall in voter satisfaction for an opposition leader in Newspoll history and puts Mr Turnbull at the same low level as Kim Beazley and Dr Nelson when they lost their party's leadership to Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull respectively.
The Newspoll also showed that voters, by a ratio of 2:1, did not believe Brisbane car dealer John Grant received preferential treatment because of his friendship with the Prime Minister.
A total of 52 per cent of those surveyed said they did not believe Mr Turnbull's claims, while only 24 per cent said they thought they were true. Of Coalition supporters, 29 per cent said they did not think Mr Turnbull's claims were true].
gee, why cant u have a quiet good night sleep anymore.
The moral of the story is simple, the punters see bully with the fake email and then demand the pm to resign. Happy days ahead.
What is the point of letting Turnbull reshuffle the frontbench when there is no reason to even consider him a leader by any known definition?
I have to admit I never thought the poll reaction to the whole thing would be so significant. I think it’s hard to argue that the changes in Turnbull’s ratings are anything else.
It’ll certainly be tempting for many in the Coalition to start to look to a new leader. I get the feeling they won’t though.
Liberals will always poll worse under a Labor government.
Holy shit…
Holy shit. I don’t think there could be a worse set of numbers in one day for one person. Turnbull must be bloody glad that parliament is not sitting this week.
Re Pembroke election in Tasmania – Vanessa Goodwin is standing for the Liberals and has an excellent chance of getting in. This could be the end of the Bartlett Government.
Sorry to be OT William.
Ahh What a grand way to start the new week.
A big thank you to turnbull, hockey and co for making it so. Also to howard for making sure the libs next best prospect left politics.
The beauty about it all is that most of the damage was inflicted by the libs on themselves.
The bonus is the hacks at limited news are damned as well by their own poll results.
And our kevin comes out of it all smelling like a rose. He is on the front foot having outclassed the libs on the economy.
Libs go ahead and block any senate bills you like. Bring it on !
Cosssssie, please come back, all is forgiven. we want you, we need you and we love you.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-hammered-by-voters-20090628-d1at.html
He would if he thought that they had a good chance at the next election.
News article notes of Turnbull that his figures were worse than Lathams,
“madder than Mark?”
This is really pathetic from Milne, if he can go anymore pathetic. What about the shameful act of having Steve Lewis on the show’s interviewing panel, not a single mention. I think the MSM overall should be ashamed of themselves over this episode.
They really do treat the punters with utter contempt.
Thanks God we dont have to rely on the letters to the editor anymore. Long Live Blogging.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25703955-33435,00.html
Like I said, Rudd was only identifying himself as the victim in Turnbulls email folly, nothing to do with ‘expectation management’. And we haven’t got the results of the AG/AFP investigation yet. Now THAT will be interesting
Tom.
Are you all ready for this?
I admit I was wrong. Turnbull indeed has stuffed up that bad.
There wasn’t a huge swing, it’s just back to the numbers that the parties were on prior to the real narrowing, but a swing is still a swing.
There – i admitted i was wrong – which is more than can be said for some others on here
Bob1234, nice bit of trolling.
What are the odds of the Libs replacing Turnbull with a new leader only to have to replace said new leader because the AG/AFP investigation implcates said new leader in illegal activities?
Tom.
Magic Nicholson cartoon http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/gallery/0,26637,5024287-20581,00.html#
No More Rudd on Rove Please
http://www.tvtonight.com.au/2009/06/no-more-rudd-on-rove-please.html
I’d have to agree. Save the over exposure please…
Of course the worst may yet be to come.
Who knows what the federal police will turn up or what GG has told them ??
Who else will be implicated…
I thought it would be max 58, ACNielson nearly made me wrong, Turnbull is still as popular as all their other options, he will survive. The only hope the Liberal party has is to select young moderates ( preferable not lawyers) for their safe seats. All of the current front bench are very unlikely to be ministers again. The sooner they face that reality and get on with it, the better for the party, and as the system works better with a viable opposition, the country.
The libs will replace turnbull with hockey. The gov will call a DD election for November after the ETS bill goes down. That will be my call. They will have to move quickly to replace turnbull to give Hockey the chance to pick up the outer suburbinite slob vote.
Well that was an interesting old week in politics
Hockey is the obvious next choice, although he is a lightweight (politically) and way too tied up in the AFP inquiry. Can the Libs wait and see which way that goes or do they change now and then have to change again before the election???
There is just no one there, they might as well stick with Turnbull and cop the loss.
Perhaps a moment from the Bard
“Caesar beware of Brutus; take heed of Cassius;come not near Casca;have an eye to Cinna;mark well Metellus Cimber;Decius Brutus loves thee not; thou hast wrong’d Caius Ligarius. There is but one mind in these men, and it is bent against Caesar. If thou beest not immortal, look about you. Security gives way to conspiracy” Julius Caesar Act 2, Scene 3
Donna R
centaur009
The ETS bill will go though and Labor will not have a DD trigger. Hockey’s popularity is equal with Turnbull’s, there is no advantage, and my money is on Hockey being mixed up with utegate. That leaves the mad monk, who is the only politician in the whole bunch, he might be capable of keeping his views to himself, but I am sure the Labor party would work hard at preventing that.
It looks like those who don’t sigh up to carbon reduction schemes will be facing trade barriers. Is that what the Greens and Liberals want for Australia?
http://johnquiggin.com/
I have no spur
To prick the sides of my intent, but only
Vaulting ambition, which o’erleaps itself,
And falls on th’ other …
(Macbeth 1 vii)
Ah, THE questions …
Will Malcolm, as is his wont, chuck a tan, pick up his bat and ball, mount his steed and ride off into the sunset?
If he doesn’t resign, will there be a Liberal leadership spill before the result of the AFP & Auditor General investigations?
Terms of reference appear to include any leaks during the current government’s term. I gather from Liberal reactions that no one is quite sure who’s in the clear. Nor does there seem to be a clear alternative. Hockey? But he rang Grech, so perhaps … The Bishop J and the Abbott, unelectable … Hunt, maybe, but not yet … Um, ah … Andrew Robb would love to be – almost as much as the ALP would love him to be … Does Judi Moylan have what it takes to lead the party through its next electoral defeat to its 2nd term in Opposition rebuilding?
Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow …
… It [was] a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
(Macbeth 5 v)
Ah I love Sweet William!
If the Libs do toss Turnbull it will leave them with a very difficult choice. Bishop is discredited and would be an easy meal for the Govt. Hockey, the “popular choice”, is really a lightweight. When has he ever demonstrated depth and rigour in examining and explaining important issues?
Never. All his answers revolve around food. Especially “growing the pie”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/27/2610326.htm?section=australia
“You know what, the only leadership I’m interested in is helping people to have a better quality of life, focussing on growing the pie, getting the economy …
So Milne is whining about not being favoured by Rudd?
What else did he expect? Why should Rudd give special favours to a journo so closely aligned with the conservatives?
I predict Abbott will put his hat into the ring if Turnball’s poll numbers don’t improve.
Rudd must be shaking in his boots at the prospect of going up against
“Mr People Skills”.
LOL
I knew that was gonna happen. Rudd wasn’t gonna benefit from this.
26 bob1234 – Good on you for admitting you were wr… wr…. wrong.
Come on Bob name names. Don’t shirk that one.
As I stated in the previous thread:
” vote1maxine
Posted Sunday, June 28, 2009 at 4:43 pm | Permalink
Will Turnbull’s dissatisfaction rating exceed satisfaction rating in the next Newspoll? I’m expecting it to significantly do so.”
Turnbull will survive the next 6 weeks. After that, it depends on what the AFP & A-G investigations conclude.
You’re joking right Bob?
Did his satisfaction raise like the 2pp did?
The rise in 2pp isn’t increased support for Rudd Labor, it’s decreased support for the Turnbull coalition. If the 2pp rise was pro Rudd and not anti Turnbull, you’d have seen an increase in Rudd’s satisfaction, but instead it went (slightly) backward.
Bob: with all due respect, how can one argue these polls are bad for Rudd?
Given the public interest, as per my comment on Richard Farmer story:
My preliminary view based on the AFP having so far decided to NOT charge Godwin Grech (meaning he is not the forger, if indeed the email is forged?), is:
The electorate are angry at being told their symbolic spouse, has breached faith, been unfaithful etc. The electorate “don’t believe it” as per Martin OShannasey of Newspoll on radio earlier today.
But that doesn’t mean the spouse is not having an affair. Affairs happen every day – just ask Mr Sanford.
The question is what the electorate will believe after the AFP fat lady sings, auditor general too.
And what are the stages of a ‘truth’ that dare not be spoken?
1. anger (the polls today)
2. denial
3. bargaining
4. acceptance.
Bring on the AFP charges for who did in fact send the Treasury email. ALP hack or not ALP hack? I wonder.
When did I say that?
The Libs need to forget ‘will make a good PM’ or electability as PM in the criteria for their next leader. They need someone who can put the party over personal ambition and put in the hard yards of rebuilding – finding new candidates, developing policies, creating a team.
So they should elect, um, must be someone, …
What’s the difference between Wayne Swan and Malcolm Turnbull?
Wayne doesn’t check his fax
Malcolm doesn’t check his facts ROFL
Bruised Turnbull plans frontbench shake-up
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2610832.htm
No, NO and who?
I surely can’t be the only person who can’t see the fuss in Andrew Robb at all. I still haven’t forgotten his dodgy list of Labor candidates who ‘may’ have not been eligible to stand for Parliament that he waved around during the last campaign.
44 – Bob you’re one for talking about MoE and it’s importance. How does a SLIGHT drop in Rudd’s high satisfaction rating have any real meaning whatsoever given MoE?
ABC radio headline this morning was weak, but typical. They’re reporting the Libs are angry over being smeared by Rudd.
Isn’t the seat in the upper house? How would this be the end of the Bartlett Government?
The fact that the 2PP goes up ~%3 but satisfaction drops, with the same pool of voters. MoE accounts for things like randomly getting more Liberal supporters on the phone than would be the case. But if the 2pp goes up and satisfaction goes down, it shows they are moving away from Turnbull, not moving toward Rudd. There is a difference.
Well I was going to make a comment about the ramifications these polls have for the ‘urgers’ in the media.
I was going to ask if maybe the repudiation by the public of the hysterical line the media and Mal ran a week ago has made the media sit up and take notice that the public doesn’t buy their negativity towards the ALP.
Perhaps there might be a more prudent and circumspect moderation in reporting and commenting in the future at least for a little while until the habit reasserts itself?
And then I saw Bill’s comment [#52] about ABC radio’s headline.
So it looks like business as usual.
Morning all and what a good morning it is. No wonder Kev was smiling yesterday morning – bet he had an inkling of the polls. He was so relaxed.
Grog and Crikey Whitey – your darn team gave me the miseries on Sat. arvo but all is forgiven. Today is a good day with Glenn Milne squirming. Fantastic.
Unusually High Support For Sotomayor:
62% Say She Should Be Confirmed
The Republicans have exactly the same problems as the Libs – no leadership, shackled to an unpopular far-right legacy, determined to fight “culture wars” they must lose.
Probably commented on earlier or in another thread, but the Nielson also shows 65% support for the CPRS and only 25% opposition. Interestingly for our Greens readers, 74% of Greens voters support the scheme.
Psephos – it sounds as though you will be right about the CPRS being passed by Libs.
65% in one of the polls say they will go with the Govt. line but I heard Robb on ABC this am saying that he’s not convinced. He say 95% of people don’t understand it so it is still rubbish and needs lots of amendments.
Of course he didn’t say what the amendments would be. He naturally doesn’t know.
54 bob1234 – What about the other two polls bob, do they backup this slight fall from grace for Rudd?
NASA has photographed Turnbull’s support base within the Liberal Party from space. You can see them all in this photo:
http://marsrovers.nasa.gov/gallery/press/spirit/20040106c/PIA04995_br.jpg
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/29jun-newspollimage.jpg
61 Socrates – LOL. Good one.
One of the problems modern day parties face (and perhaps olden day ones did, too, I’m not old enought to say) is that safe seats are ‘given’ to factional warriors who need to be rewarded for their party work but have the personal charm of warthogs and are thus unelectable in more marginal seats.
In the sunny days of romping big parliamentary margins, this makes for harmony within the ranks. Come the inevitable electoral wipe out, however, and the party is left trying to rebuild itself using charmless warthogs who have never really campaigned and thus have very little understanding of politics in the raw.
I’m being even handed here; it was one of the problems Labor faced in Opposition as well.
Anyway, the charmless warthogs are left in charge of the keys. They determine who the leader is. They have a big say in party preselections (and are attracted to the charmless warthog demographic – they can’t see anything wrong with it). They determine tactics in Parliament and often are in charge of ‘policy’ as well.
If the Liberals (as I confidently predict) lose more seats at the next election, it is likely that their parliamentary representatives will consist of people such as Mirabella, Bronnie Bishop and Abbott, whose ideology blinds them to the needs and concerns of real people.
Good post by Possum with more nifty graphs. Any Liberal reading it would need to have a Bex and a good lie-down after.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/29/malcolm-turnbull-a-ute-full-of-pain/comment-page-1/#comment-13655
62 bob1234 – Now, Bob, you could have just answered “no”.
Gary, if you’re not going to understand what i’m saying, which is that the swing is anti-Turnbull rather than pro-Rudd, then there’s no point continuing this discussion.
Naturellement.
It’s never a good look to tell the voters how ignorant and stupid they are. Andrew, democracy comes from two Greek words “demos” the people and “kratein” to rule. The people rule, get it?
Rudd’s in such a strong position, he won’t have to give them much.
All jokes aside GB, IMO things will get better from here. There will be a few hickups from month to month as some bad economic news results come out. For example, in August / September a lot of companies will announce annual results that are losses. But by the end of the year employment will be starting to pick up. Sydney is a risk but Adelaide is already good, and the rest are doing not great but OK.
Bob – you claim there is a difference between and anti-malco swing and a pro-rudd one.
Ok, maybe there is. But does it have any practical application? It’s a two horse race…
The Liberals saying other peopel are ignorant about climate change is a bit like them giving us a lecture on document control.
2pp went up 3.
Rudd satisfaction went up 1, Turnbull satisfaction went down 19.
It’s obvious the reason for the 2pp drop is Turnbull and not Rudd.
It seems the newspaper line being quoted was due to the fact Rudd went down 3% for ‘likeable’ and up 4% for ‘arrogant’ (to 51%, a majority? wow……..)
No, Bob, that’s not the case. Rudd has increased personal approval ratings (67% in Nielsen). The voters actively like and approve of Rudd, not just accept him as the least worst alternative.
It sure does. Howard led in the polls because of an anti-ALP leader vibe, not a pro-Howard vibe. So you get what happens when someone like Rudd comes along as opposition leader – you get a massive shift from voters who were unhappy with both leaders and wanted to swap their support but couldn’t face doing so.
Is there a sheet for ACNielsen like there is Newspoll?
The fact that 51% say Rudd is arrogant is rather interesting…
Also, the Greens need to stop preening themselves on their own rectitude and listen to the voice of the people on the CPRS. Vox populi vox dei, Bob.
Rudd’s from an already high level. You are really splitting hairs here bob.
Not really. Politicians in general are not popular. Besides when you’re comparing that to 68% for Turnbull it doesn’t seem so bad.
All PMs are arrogant, it goes with the territory. What’s wrong with arrogant anyway?
Bob, you made a typo in that one – you wrote ‘understand’ when you meant ‘agree with’.
Well done for admitting that, it’s more than most on here can say
Interesting but not significant given that he is very popular.
I’m sure it will come as a surprise to people, but Piers Akerman has backed Turnbull’s call for a judicial inquiry into ‘ute-gate’ or ‘mate-gate’ as he calls it.
Name names bob. Come on, you can do it.
Brown or me?
I’m indifferent on Greens support for the CPRS. I reckon they’re doing what they think is noble and trying to extract maximum concessions on it, and right up till the last minute say they wont vote for it unless they get what they want, but in the end vote for it anyway – the Senate is often a game of poker.
Maybe Labor and the Greens both want a higher-targetted CPRS but know they can’t do it with Senate numbers so they’ll orchestrate two failed bills, get a DD, then a Labor-Green Senate majority, and redo the bill from scratch
I try to stay away from personal attacks. Sometimes i slip, but I do generally try not to go personal.
Me too bob, that’s why I object to these statements that contain the words “most people here ….” or “some people here ….” then finish with some derisive comment about them.
Bob – I think most people understand that a little arrogance is a good thing as a PM.
He has to cope with all types, local and international. If one was a bit short on the self confidence/arrogance aspect it would be difficult to cope with the job.
I reckon we cut him that bit of slack and also his angry bit so long as it is not over the top like Turnbulls.
Turnbull’s past is not all that glorious when you break it down and it is all due to his personality. Unfortunate for him but fortunate for Kev and his supporters.
Greetings all – I’ve not posted for some time (mainly because I could never remember my log-in details), and it’s good to see many of the old faces still at large on this site.
As regards to these polls, in actuality they are the same as pretty much every poll has been since December, 2006 – ie Labor miles ahead. The most interesting thing about these partcular polls is the collapse in MT’s personal support – last week may well have been the time when people made up their minds about MT, and once the voters have done that, they don’t often change.
It’s been commented by myself and others that the Libs have not yet accepted the 2007 election defeat – that it was all just an “over-correction”, and once they make the voters see what a mistake they made, then all will be well and the Libs will return to the Treasury benches. Trouble is, voters don’t like being told they are wrong. This was what Labor did in the first part of the Howard years, and it wasn’t until Rudd came along that the ALP accepted that, well, people didn’t hate Howard like they did.
It will take another election loss (or two) for reality to sink in, so I’d say we’ll see more of the same tactics-wise from the Libs over the next few years.
I meant Bob Brown, but if you’re a Green Bob, you can take it as well.
No, I don’t think the CPRS bill is a tactic to sucker Turnbull into a DD. I think Rudd wants this bill passed this year so he can go to Copenhagen with some credibility to argue for higher targets. And I think Turnbull, privately, agrees that it’s in the national interest for that to happen. His trouble is that he can’t carry his party with him, let alone the Nats. Nevertheless he will cave, telling his party that they can’t risk a DD at which they would be smashed.
And what if the people are wrong?
This won’t do the Labor Party much harm either. Promoted properly, it could see a further jump in Labor’s popularity in coming polls.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25704938-5013404,00.html
As they quite often are. Parties should ignore it but do so at their own peril. If they can’t convince their voters of the benefits of opposing/supporting something they need to be willing to wear the consequences.
Surely the Government wouldn’t be as stupid to implement policy based on opinion polls and focus groups.
What kind of wacky world would that be.
If the people are wrong they will wear the consequences of their wrongness. But in practice, they’re not wrong very often.
Psephos, everyone knows that getting legislation passed has nothing to do with getting a good outcome Copenhagen and if anything, it can be a negative to getting a strong global deal.
Leave the spin to Penny, she’s a bit better at it.
Mr Turnbull said he had met with the AFP as well as giving a statement but had “not been interviewed”. It is understood the police made contact late Friday afternoon and he met them on Saturday. The deputy Liberal leader in the Senate, Eric Abetz, spoke with police on Friday. This is Gratton in the Age link http://www.theage.com.au/national/turnbull-denies-link-to-creation-of-fake-email-20090628-d1aj.html . The police “made contact” with Turnbull late Friday afternoon and he met with the Police on saturday.He gave them a “full” statment.Turnbull later told Channel 10 that he was giving “full co-operation “.Gratton then writes, Mr Turnbull said he had met with the AFP as well as giving a statement but had “not been interviewed”. These are her inverted commas in the last sentence. I wonder did he refused to be interviewed .
Why have you become so obsessively nasty recently, Oz?
The nation, its states & Councils are controlled by a symbiotic relationship between politicians and politics (with the help of the PS etc). The answers to political questions, big and small, are political responses – except for a few overriding events/ crises, like natural disasters and events like Port Arthur massacre, E Timor & the Bali bombing.
I’m sure CPRS will pass the Seante pretty much as is – with a possible non-core concession or two to the Liberals, who want few things less than a DD. I’m sure all the tax bills will pass the Senate … ditto. It’s in the Opposition’s best interest to rebuild some of its electoral support to minimise the next election’s damage. It’s in the Government’s best interests to limit the damage the Greens and Indes might cause in the Senate.
Minimising the Greens would play a role (probably next in importance to avoiding a DD) in Turnbull’s offer to negotiate with Rudd; its primary reasons to limit Green power by moderating (if possible) rather than strengthening CC legislation; its secondary to minimise voter and preference drift to the Greens from the major parties.
Either major party in government will have to deal with (a) climate change and (b) the Greens. Mainstreaming a major issue is always the best way of limiting the power of special interest parties. Mainstreaming CC is the best way to limit the Greens. Australian parliaments have successfully either seen off most break-away and special interest parties, or melded them into major parties/ coalitions (ALP and various conservative/ Lib-Country/Nat Coalitions).
Oz, the problem with using ‘everyone knows’ is that it’s usually obvious that not ‘everyone’ agrees.
A leader with a low arrogance rating would be skating on thin ice, likewise leader with a high arrogance rating. They would want to have exceptional other characteristics. Arrogance is not neccessarily a bad thing unless it is coupled with untrustworthiness, then it is devestating. Ask Malcolm.
Hugo – join the list of people who can never remember their log in bits.
I learnt my lesson a couple of years ago and now write them all in a book. The next step is to remember what goes with what. Life’s cruel sometimes. lol
And ain’t Malcolm finding that out today. Serves him right for landing poor sick Grech in the mire and then making out he knew nothing about it. Turnbull deserved a rotten poll.
The Coalition is “firm” on their position on the ETS:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2611060.htm?section=justin
Andrew Robb has documentary evidence the scheme is flawed.
Was it leaked? Is it real?
Why is Newspoll out a day early? Assume they knew Neilsen would publish today, and did not want to miss out on the coverage.
TP
I’d certainly watch out if the coalition tried to drag Ian Plimmer into a Senate committee to give evidence on climate change. Or Steven “man of reason” Fielding
Well I predicted that MT might have used his post-Costello political capital to force a DD and take the inevitable hit sooner, rather than later.
I’d like to withdraw.
MT is obviously too risk-adverse to run with that.
TP
- He talked about having their own modelling done this a.m so you are right – every time the Libs do something we can ask “is it real”. What info did they put into it, who provided the money, etc. The poor devils are stuck with that phrase forever.
I loved Vera’s piece the other from Barcelona News where they reported the fake emil story and had a go at the Murdoch press for promoting it. Has Rupert done something to someone in Spain.
Malcolm gambled everything before he had put in the proper foundations of trustworthiness and approval. Mal this is what happens when you don’t spend time on foundataions – this aparment block in Shanghai yesterday that just ‘decided’ to literally fall over.
http://eng.wcetv.com/1/2009/06/28/201s15712.htm
Sheehan has gone back to form – labor is a pack of hyena’s attacking poor old Malcolm.
Never mind he inflicted this all on himself and his party.
But I do like the bit towards the end – shown below – although I’m not reading it in the context sheehan intended.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/a-hyena-pack-hunts-in-canberra-20090628-d17a.html?page=-1
A hyena pack hunts in Canberra
[
A hyena pack hunts in Canberra
* Paul Sheehan
* June 29, 2009
f
Illustration: Michael Mucci
Wildlife programs on TV are wholesome, but they are often heavily censored, especially those depicting life on the plains of Africa. The editing always draws a veil at gruesome moments, such as when a pack of hyenas have brought down their prey. Hyenas don't wait for their food to be dead.
They start to rip and tear while there is still life and movement, before the eyes of their prey glaze and natural opiates puts the animal into numbed shock. It is nature's in-built protection for violent death.
We got the uncensored equivalent live on TV last week, when our federal leaders descended on their prey, eyes gleaming, bloodlust in the air, red meat on the floor. There were five men operating as a pack - Kevin Rudd, Anthony Albanese, Lindsay Tanner, Tony Burke, Chris Bowen - with an intent to leave a shredded political carcass on Capital Hill.
The attack was foreshadowed in Parliament two weeks ago, on June 17, when the Minister for Agriculture, Tony Burke, rose to speak about the Leader of the Opposition, Malcolm Turnbull, and his past association with Axiom Forest Resources.
"The company engaged in logging in the Solomon Islands in the 1990s, at the time that [Turnbull] was both its chairman and a shareholder,” Burke said, paraphrasing an AusAID report. “The impact from the destruction of the resource was such that, instead of it being done in a sustainable way, it was essentially shot to pieces.
“It was also revealed in March 2007 that the chairman bought in at $200,000 and sold out one year later for $25 million. That is not a bad story for the Leader of the Opposition but a pretty shocking story for the residents of that island in the Solomon Islands.”
The real attack, the death hunt, began in Parliament last Monday, led by the Prime Minister.
“The member for Wentworth [Turnbull] is no longer fit to occupy the office of Leader of the Opposition … no longer tenable … his fingerprints [are] all over the promotion of this fake email … he sought to threaten Dr Charlton from my office,” Rudd said.
Inevitably, there followed numerous snapping lunges from the Government’s chief enforcer, Albanese, the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport.
“[Turnbull] has form. During the legal action related to the Costigan royal commission [in 1984] … the judge condemned Turnbull’s tactics, saying … he had ‘managed effectively to poison the fountain of justice’ … [and] ‘an abuse of legal process’ …” Albanese said.
“He has been exposed as a grubby opportunist who will do any thing to get into office, just as he would do anything to knock off Peter King, a sitting member from the Liberal Party, just as he would do anything to destroy people in the ARM [Australian Republican Movement]. What a success that was!”
Tanner, the Minister for Finance, took the next bite: “This is not the first time he [Turnbull] has behaved like a grubby opportunist … I remind everybody in the House of his involvement with the HIH disaster. In 1997, along with Rodney Adler, he explored the prospect of buying HIH and decided that it was not a good purchase.
“He was paid $1.5 million to help FAI find a buyer. He advised FAI not to get an independent valuation of its assets. He wrote to Goldman Sachs, his employers in New York, on 7 September, 1998, saying that the true net value of the assets of FAI was about $20 million. It was then later sold to HIH, partly on his advice, for $295 million. That played a central role in the collapse of HIH and we all know the misery that caused …”
Burke added: “If you want to find a story about deals for mates … look back at the time [Turnbull] served as a minister in the previous government… A company named the Australian Rain Corporation … . sought money and the National Water Commission [which] … recommended that the [minister] provide them with $2 million for a trial …
“He wrote to the prime minister seeking a lazy $10 million for the Australian Rain Corporation … This is where we discover that an executive of the corporation happened to be a next-door neighbour of [Turnbull]. The same person, the same neighbour, was a member of his electorate fund-raising committee, the Wentworth Forum … .
Bowen, the Minister for Financial Services, said: “He [Turnbull] has been shown to be a shallow man… a man who has sold out on all semblance of credibility … . he has made himself a weapon and a tool of smear and innuendo … ”
Tanner: “Malcolm Turnbull has taken a large campaign donation from an American billionaire closely linked to the predatory lending practices that triggered the sub-prime lending crisis …
“Peter Briger, chairman and director of controversial ‘vulture company’, Fortress Investment Group, contributed $US50,000 – or $76,000 – to the Liberal campaign fund for the Opposition Leader’s seat of Wentworth last year.”
Albanese: “I understand that the member for Wentworth knows a dead cat when he sees one… I could have sworn I was witnessing the ghost of Mark Latham. It was all there: the jaw jutting out, all the fake aggression, all the machismo … ”
Burke: “I am aware of potential threats to Jasper the cat, living at the Lodge. I do put the Leader of the Opposition on notice; if anything happens to Jasper the cat, questions will be asked.”
By the time they had trawled through Turnbull’s past, the Opposition Leader was portrayed, under the privilege of Parliament, as a treacherous, bullying, smearing, opportunistic, justice-poisoning, forest-stripping, tax-avoiding, profiteering, cat-abusing loser.
I had thought all this was being warehoused for the next election. But no, they want him dead now. ]
No. Labor wants him for the next election. Wrong again sheehan.
BH said “I think most people understand that a little arrogance is a good thing as a PM.”
There’s a difference between “self-belief”, without which few would achieve anything, and “arrogance”.
“Arrogance” is often a construct (ie a word “we compose of words which we have a concept of” http://www.update.uu.se/~fbendz/philo/words.htm ) people like to throw at intelligent, successful, highly effective, confident, well prepared people they dislike or envy – although there are people so sublimely blind to anything other than their own ego, who truly earn the term (eg Louis XV of France).
“Arrogance” is one of those constructs one needs to justify, in case it is perceived as saying more about the user than the person against whom it is used.
In OzPolitics, the arrogant SM Bruce of the 1920s would successfully reinvent himself in the 1930s. Menzies as PM 1939-41 was usually described, especially by his own party, as “arrogant”. The same term is rarely applied to same man’s as PM 1949-66. In both cases, “arrogant” was well earned; so was its disappearance after each’s “Fall”. Both remained “self-confident” without reverting to arrogance, because each learned his lesson well. In that, there are lessons to be learned both by politicians and those who deem them arrogant.
One of the great funny asides in this mornings coverage of the poll results came from the Sky News female political reporter, a person seriously out of her depth in that role. She insisted all morning that the mad monk Abbott came through last weeks pathetic display by the Opposition strongly and handled his temp role, in Pynes absence, in a strong and forceful way. She also implied Abbott would feature in any Turnbull front bench shakeup as he is a ’strong and forceful’ performer!!!!! Abbott was one of Howards jack boot wearing front row, dirt, gutter tactics were the order of the day from the minute Rudd took over the Labor leadership. These days he has taken on the appearance of an escapee from a wax museum, with a frozen jaw. He is a sly, sneaky wimpish type who attempts to give the impression of a saint in waiting. He has form people, merely cast your memory back to 2007. he was a member of the Coalition dirty tricks team led by Minchin. There wasn’t a candidate for sainthood among them.
Turnbull’s starting to remind me slightly of El Cid.
For the youngsters among youse our there who didn’t see the film, or the history illiterates, El Cid was a Spanish historical figure who, after he died, had his dead body strapped onto his horse to frighten the other side into surrendering. Turnbull’s saddled up, but whether he’ll frighten anything but his own side is another matter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_cid
We all know he won’t shut up. He’ll want to try again, in a vain attempt to prove he was always right. Admitting error is not in his makeup. In fact it doesn’t seem to be in the Coalition’s make up lately. They think they can run any line at all – e.g. “The fake email is Swan’s fault because it came from Treasury” – and get the public to accept it. No-one knows this more than Malcolm Turnbull himself, so I think he’ll up stumps and leave them all to squabble over the scraps Rudd leaves them to chew on.
Joe Hockey is actually one of the worst offenders at the outrageous pronouncement that’s meant to be taken seriously, so why they’re thinking of putting him up for Leader, heaven knows. It’s a cast iron admission they have no-one left. They’re still mired in the past trying to prove they were right all along, way back from Howard’s time. History, in their minds, is a process whereby the story is written by them and then rewritten by them to prove they were always right. The public grows bored with this after a while.
For Labor’s part, Albo’s citation of Latham was brilliant in that it put the Ghost Of Mark Latham to rest, at last. It was Labor’s final admission that they got it terribly wrong in putting Latho up for PM. This can only go down well with the electorate, right or wrong (Latham did have some good points). But the RW commentators and many of the bloggers couldn’t understand it. They were full of condemnation about it. They thought it was hypocrisy on Labor’s part to admit a mistake. It was actually very, very good sense, introduced at exactly the right time.
But the Coalition’s biggest mistake, born of the Divine Right To Rule they assume is theirs and theirs only, is the thought that they could knock off an entire government with a silver bullet, much less a faked one. Until they realise there’s no silver bullet, and that they need to do the hard yards, first of clearing out the deadwood from Howard’s time, and then of the development of a policy platform that actually recognizes what the public at large wants (and not just the Ackerlytes’ wet dreams) they’re there in opposition for a long time. I couldn’t be happier for them to maintain the delusion that Rudd is Humpty Dumpty just waiting to topple off the wall, but that’s just me.
But back to Turnbull… Turnbull has the reputation of being a sticker, but I think even he will realise the game’s up and that being PM is just a bridge too far for him. Far from being sacked, I would not be surprised if Turnbull walked. He can’t get any discipline happening, can’t even organise a simple vote or minor policy position without dissent. He can disappear to Tuscany or wherever and convince himself that the bad dream never happened, like Costello seems to have finally done. The cold sweats will stop after a while and Rainmaker can enjoy his millions in peace. He’s a barrister, and they know full well you can’t win them all. You couldn’t be a barrister and survive otherwise. They have to be able to go off to an expensive dinner at the Rock Pool in clear conscience (or perhaps without conscience is a better way of putting it) while their client enjoys his first night of spooning porridge and keeping a wall behind him always. Further, barristers have to have the gall to send a large bill for losing the case. After all, life goes on.
So, BB’s prediction, you read it here first: Turnbull to resign and then leave politics, before the next election.
I just had a look at a piece in the OO re Rudd and I reckon one comment sums up the MSM perfectly with their inability to put Rudd into their own little box.
Looks like Piers was right on the money with his brilliant column yesterday.
Even Bolt has said “Just a couple of weeks after Peter Costello says he’ll quit, Malcolm Turnbull is finished, too. “
Sounds like a load of rot to me…
ltep
He’s finished politically. His approval ratings show that. Just look at SA where the exact same thing happened to MHS. There’s no way he will quit and I’m not sure his party will force him out because of the lack of a viable successor, except Cossie who must be having a good laugh ATM.
When ever I slice an article by Piers, all I get is heaps of congealed fat and loads of stinky gases.
eewww
Nice description of Hockey from Pies’ blog:
Keep bashing, Basher.
The latest page also contains this wonderful couplet of ripostes from Pies:
The “Me Generation” would presumably include “senior Liberal Party sources” quoted widely today, those who know there’s no gain without pain, who say Turnbull’s toast?
He gave these instructions after he was dead?
Why do Sky bother with these polls lol
Last week
Who do you believe on utegate
Rudd 29
Turnbull 71
(or there abouts)
Todays poll
Who do you prefer as leader of Libs
Turnbull 37
Abbott 10
Hockey 21
Oother 32
I’ll have $10 on Other
This week, Turnbull has revealed himself as a bad politician, but his self-confidence and his bully-boy style is perfect for party back room brawling and number crunching.
While he can’t bully the voters, you watch him make certain his own survival – this is what Turnbull is really good at.
You can bet that Mr Turnbull does not fail. Any way you look at this, Turnbull will stay as leader – he will ensure it. He’s no Dr Nelson – he’s no locum.
Can’t agree. Turnbull knows the game’s up. He’ll fall on his sword, making brave noises about “the good of the party” and leave for Tuscany.
Pedant.
It is funny to reflect on MT’s big gamble.
His best case scenario:
PM: Gillard
Treasurer: Tanner
Diogenes, my ‘load of rot’ comment was directed at BH’s post right above yours.
Re Kit at 119 on Malcolm Turnbull being a bad politican.
The next times the libs consider a member for Wentworth for leader, they should consider the track record ain’t too good. John Hewson was also a bad politician.
Bushfire Bill @110
One of your best!
These polls are clearly telling the Libs to get rid of Turnbull.
However, the Libs are facing Hobson’s choice dilemma. Do they change their leader now in the wake of these frightening poll figures or do they wait until the outcome of the AFP and AG investigations?
Allowing Turnbull to struggle on like a wounded elephant might buy them some time However, the continued alienation of the electorate could see their core voter support under threat. On the other hand, passing over to the next in line carries risks as well. (Inexperience, no credibility, how to energise a dispirited party etc). Of course the Libs have the added worry that whomever they choose could become further implicated in the various investigations which would be even more disastrous.
Given this is the Party of people incapable of making a decison about Howard’s future and who have also managed to throttle the really credible leadership alternative of Peter Costello, then it’s likely they’ll assume the foetal position and start calling out for their “mummy” before making any decison.
SA have decided to beat the rush:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25705810-2702,00.html
I think predicitons of Turnbull’s demise are a bit premature.
The newspoll 2PP was 58/42 throughout April.
This one is 56/44 -
Things looking grim for Turnbull, Abbott is said he is safe.
Turnbull safe despite polls: Abbott
http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?ATL://1246232317097§ion=latest&title=Turnbull+safe+despite+polls%3a+Abbott
Turnbull won’t recover. More people that were giving him the benefit of the doubt will now gradually move away. Nothing succeeds like success and Rudd Labors success is a meme people will be attracted to just as the meme of Turnbull Coallition failure under attack meme can become ingrained.
I think that Cleary should run in Wills not Brunswick because the demographics are better for him in the northern half of the electorate.
Oops
People thinking you are a bit of nerd, nong or weirdo is one thing but people not trusting you is fatal, it means your messages will always be filtered through scepticism.
If the Libs do decide to give Turnbull the flick (or if he goes of is own volition) they have a very difficult situation – who could bring it up to the Government in Parliament and to the voters at election time?
Looking at the Opposition’s front bench there is a pretty sorry sight.
Turnbull – obviously in a lot of trouble
Bishop – no threat and she’s somewhat already yesterday’s woman
Truss – an easy target (e.g. regional rorts)
Robb – has a low profile and would not command interest from the electorate – although he is an experienced tactician
Hockey – a mile wide and an inch deep – populism only goes so far
Hunt – still has his training wheels on (and he has an irritating voice like Pyne)
Pyne – has a very high annoyance factor
Cobb, Keenan, Stone, Ciobo – no recognition factor at the moment
Outer Shadow Ministry – nothing much there either
So what do they do?
I’m sure the Libs will be ecstatic at their progress! The fact that their leader has taken such a huge knock in popularity will be even more lovely for them.
In the Australian polity, you just don’t recover from that.
Trubbell at Mill, I believe that howard won two elections (2001 and 2004) after the “mean and tricky” assessment.
How long before the Nats pull out of the Coalition?
138
The Nats pulling out of the Coalition would be complicated by the LNP.
They won’t.
Barnaby Joyce – leader of the opposition
ltep,
The Nats already dislike Turnbull. Why should they sacrifice their brand to stay associated with the Libs atm. In the Senate, they could probably achieve more for their constituency by voting independantly of the Libs.
I would be interested in your counter arguments.
They’ve become far too complacent and lazy after years of having to do nothing much at all.
As far as the Senate goes, I imagine Barnaby will make sure the Nats do what they please.
There will be rumblings from certain Libs (Heffernan, Schultz etc.) to end the Coalition deal but it will end in nothing happening.
The only time I can imagine something changing would be if Joyce makes the move to the lower house.
9/11 & Latham may have helped. He was the ‘mean and tricky’ they knew.
As others have mentioned a lack of credible Labor leader and a bit of a scare campaign allowed Howard to win those 2 elections. May have been different in 2004 if Rudd had been ready to challenge for leadership then.
Squig, you’d have a go at selling ice to the Eskimos I reckon.
Conceded, TP, but my point was that, with the right circumstances, a polly can recover from an assessment by the public of dodginess. And I didn’t even mention the ‘non-core promise’
Howard and Menzies learnt from their mistakes to come back in triumph. Turnbull has the raw talent to do this but does he have the determination to accept the humiliations that lie ahead?
Kit: [Trubbell at Mill, I believe that howard won two elections (2001 and 2004) after the “mean and tricky” assessment.]
Yes, but that wasn’t an assessment of Howard. If you remember, Howard leaked Stone’s memo precisely because it had been worded, with the rodent’s connivance, to finger Costello as being the ‘mean and tricky’ one.
Kit I don’t think Howard did recover from that “mean and tricky” perception.
I think the voters knew he would go too far one day and they were just waiting for a chance to belt him – it took Labor leadership change and the right strategy to get him on workchoices and a few other things.
Howard is still considered to be mean and tricky, even by people who voted for him. He will never lose that.
Geoff Robinson, my point exactly, I think that Turnbull is fueled by his belief in his own ability to counter and destroy any attempt at his humiliation. This sort of environment (when his back is against the wall) is what makes him thrive.
Sorry Squiggly but you’re starting to sound like a drowning man now.
Dare I say shades of Shanahan and Preferred PM debate? That feather dance didn’t seem to draw many wolf whistles either…
Dave @ 108
Sheehan has it wrong again, of course. It isn’t hyenas going after Turnball, it’s vultures.
Peter Sandman 2004 Conference Transcript -Boston College Center for Corporate Citizenship Conference http://www.bcccc.net/index.cfm?fuseaction=page.viewPage&PageID=979
In this speech, Sandman (of ‘Risk = Hazard + Outrage’ fame) discusses why being loved may not bring any benefit, and may have a downside, but being hated is a real cost, and has no upside. He is, of course, talking about corporations, but it could just as easily be applied to politicians.
Good point, but Howard still won two elections. And, over time, I reckon Turnbull will be able to turn that sort of perception around, while Howard’s actions and manner only confirmed it.
Move on, Turnbull is finished, so says His Master’s voice.
http://www.thepunch.com.au/
Dont laugh, this is serious:
http://todaysfacilitymanager.com/facilityblog/uploaded_images/2989bw-787944.jpg
Thansk GB, nice to be known for something
Nelson, Crean, & Beazley were all moved on after a prolonged period of poor satisfaction/PPM scores.
That hasn’t happend to MT yet. I’d need to see today’s numbers sustained before thinking he is on his way out.
I think an added problem with Turnbull is that he also comes over too aggressive with a hint of violence. Nobody ever saw Howard that way. He was clever and tricky accountant. Or as one lady here said of him at the time…he is just a nice old man.
Diog I wish someone would ask Piers next time he is on insiders about how much todays polls reflect his comments yesterday….I cant believe this bloke is actually employed as a commentator. My cat would have interpreted last weeks events more accurately than he.
Turnbull will survive because Hockey can see the writing on the wall for the next election, and wont challenge. The best outcome for Labor is a damaged Turnbull stays. Of course, the next round of polls will no doubt be heralded as a major comeback for Turnbull as he is coming off such a low base with these polls.
I have heard Turnbull interviewed a no of times about the fake email and his whole defence has been that the senate commitee testimony swayed him. No one seems to have asked his opinion of Grech’s major qualifications such as “I could be totally false”, ie. he was indicating a significant degree of hesitancy and doubt. How sweet though that Turnbull’s mole has inflicted such damage on him. Karma
PBs hit Crickey’s front web page, no wonder they lap up PB posts.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/29/newspoll-56-44-acnielsen-58-42-galaxy-56-44/
The voters will stick even with a PM they don’t much like if there is no acceptable alternative. Snedden, Peacock, Howard (1st time), Crean, Latham, Hewson, Nelson, – not acceptable alternatives. Whitlam in 72, Hawke in 83, Howard in 96, Rudd in 07 – acceptable alternatives to PMs who were not much liked. Rudd is genuinely popular and respected, and Turnbull has no hope at all against him.
Hope Turnbull stays. The cartoonists are only just beginning to explore the dead cat angle.
And for the record Shanahan’s headline about Turnbull being SMASHED by the polls was more foreful that The Age’s. I wonder whether he cried into his tea as he wrote that or someone else had to write it for him??
The idea that Turnbull should stay on until the AFP and AG investigations are finalised might be a good one if they are not sure who could be in the deep stuff over it. And it is just possible some of it could be very deep.
Turnbull will stay unless the AFP investigation reveals talks between Godwin Grech and Turnbull. As I’ve said before, if it turns out that Grech showed Turnbull the email, then Turnbull is toast because Grech said he didn’t have the email in Senate estimates and Turnbull would have known that not to be true.
Kit – Turnbull is supposed to be leading the party of business but he has, in the past few months, annoyed businesses in many ways.
How embarrassing that he thought it necessary to lecture at a breakfast meeting recently about not taking his side in the CC debate.
He not only has enemies within his party – they are throughout the business community too. Car dealers, commercial property developers, exporters (his China rubbish was woeful), Banks, etc. etc.
He’s gawn even if he contests the next election as leader
Had the Senate been enlarged to 14 per state, in one go, at the 1984 election then Garret would have become a Senator in 1985.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/1984/1984senatensw.txt
Maybe Bob posts on Ackermans web site, he has said Turnbull will survive,I Piers have said so,backed up but some of the silliest reply’s I have every read,you lot though the US had a advantage in nutters I think your wrong, Ackerman has the worlds best conspiracy theorists.
In celebration of the unprecedented release of three polls we have a competition!
Who wrote:
TP107
Thanks for that photo of the Shanghai collapse. At least engineers cna point to things collapsing when they don’t have input. Unlike the economists
Musrum, Machiavelli
BH 165
Agreed. I have said several times that different Libeal policy stances would harm business and I can’t see why they would possibly fund their next election campaign.
Hey, William. My post @ 92 is still in moderation. It’s only a quote which I feel would add to the discussion and would be throwing all the numbering out.
Kit: Correct! Here you go: :cookie:
I’m sure he’s very grateful now that he didn’t.
cookie emotions need to be imagined…
Socrates – agree about the funding for Libs. If Turnbull underwrites a lot of the campaign would that show up in donation list if it is paid by a Trust.
emotions == emoticons
Surely the current chaos of the libs is not only repetitive political history but also the real specific legacy of Howard “the nice old man” or dare I hope a sign of the true long term malaise of this band of opportunists who couldn’t face up to supporting a Costello leadership coup …too late now..or is it??
(haven’t been around for awhile as I’m getting more entertainment these days from Mafia Wars on Facebook; a d*** addictive game LOL)
Had to chime in today with a YIPEEE when I saw the poll results, Malcolm doesn’t have a clue at all …… and I missed KR on Rove last night too, was his piece any good? Saw story about Bruno this morning vis a vis Rudd and raised a bit of an eyebrow at that, Bruno is one weird dude ……
Juliem
Welcome back – we have certainly missed you!
yes welcome back julie. rudd as his usual dorky self- no major damage in the interview. And you know Bruno is a character dont you??
It’s all here Julie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QggLtP2yUkI
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25706369-5006301,00.html
Mmm charming.
will assume that is a youtube bit about bruno or something? guessing I don’t want to look at it LOL …..
Juliem – you missed the most interesting week ever here. These guys were brilliant and had the email declared fake by early Friday evening. Their analysis left the MSM in its wake.
A truly entertaining week on PB and today’s polls top it off. Better than any other game played I can tell you.
Forgot to mention Juliem – you would be pleased that the bill passed through the Senate for dishing repayments by refugees. Thank goodness.
Little by little Labor will bring the public along to realise that asylum seekers are not the scum of the earth but we Ozzies can be slow learners in trying to protect our WASP way of life.
If Rudd can stay in power for another term then Howard’s terrible legacy may be erased completely.
BH @ 184, I’ve followed every bit on the news believe you me
…. was thinking a fair few of our Lib regulars probably are checking themselves into the doctor for ulcer and heartburn checkups 
No, aside from politics though, if you’ve a FB account, go check it out (Mafia Wars) ….. you won’t regret it, at least you will have had a look
…. I can tell you I would like to send my M-16’s and Humvee tanks into the Liberal party room 
{if I could}
So what happened with Grocery Watch?
If it can’t be done then how come Choice and the retailers now http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2610866.htm
both want to do it?
Did the government need Collies to co-operate?
Were they so threatened by it? Do they need ignorance to make a profit?
Ah, juliem! Relieved to see you back again. Have been considering asking if anyone knew where you’d got to. I even checked back for your last post (15th June, I think).
Keeping up over the last couple of weeks has been mammoth effort! I never did catch up on a dozen or so pages that appeared while I was in a meeting. That said, your insights would have been a welcome addition.
Andrew 158:
If you think of Pies, not as a commentator, but what he really is – a Liberal shill, there to push an anti-Labor, pro-Liberal argument, his counter-intuitive, hairy-chested views make perfect sense.
Juliem – I’m on dialup – in the country, up hill and down dale. No chance of checking out Mafia Wars altho I would like to and join you in driving the Humvees to Lib HQ.
Will get my kids to look at it and relay the info.
Swannies turn to win next week so I ain’t saying good luck with your team.
I just wonder why the MSM and the Liberal party can even entertain the idea that Turnbull could ever be Opp leader let alone PM as his history’ such as the HIH debarcle and the $10m Rainmaker grant, along the list previously listed on this thread. A grant to a neigbour and fund raiser for Turnbull himself, which his company donated $10,000 to the relection of Turnbull.This is much worse and not in the same league as the $20m grant to Howard’s brother’s business, as that money at least went to the workers, otherwise they would have been jobless and cashless, which made it very hard for the ALP to attack.
From the Liberals Twitter Feed
Don’t forget mannildra, the bio-fuel mob – grant money for major lib donor – and mate of howard.
Its different of course – mates only applies to labor
An updated summary of current events. Very funny.
http://bekk.blogspot.com/2009/06/utegate-as-told-by-lolcats.html
“I think predicitons of Turnbull’s demise are a bit premature.”
If Turnbull had a record of sticking to something for the long haul, he might reinvent himself as Bruce, Menzies and Howard did; but he hasn’t.
From a wealthy background, Bruce, who served in WW I, was 46 when he lost the PMship; Bob Menzies, whose family had produced several Victorian MHRs (including his father) and an MP, and was 47 when he lost the PMship. His roles during WW II (well canvassed in a recent ABC film) and his respect for Curtin (who consulted him) undoubtedly prepared him to form and lead the Liberal Party. Turnbull will be 55 in October. Wealthy, pugnacious, achieving too much success and fame too fast, he has, so far, lacked the steadying influences of Bruce’s war service and Menzies’ was roles. His performance throughout Utegate, inc shirtfronting Charlton at the Ball and over-riding party-room qualms, is all too typical.
Australians have a much discussed reputation for dismissing governments rather than electing Oppositions. Assuming the ALP holds government for at least three terms (Fraser served 3; since 1932, only Whitlam’s government served less – 2 terms), Turnbull, even if he does manage to reinvent himself, will be c63 before he gets a real chance – and then only if the government is badly on the nose.
Of the government’s cabinet and ministry, only Swan (no PMerial ambitions) seemed vulnerable, yet his only slip was one 2min phonecall. Grech’s role in targeting him – especially by sending the faxes to his home, then leaking their existence – will effectively shield & steady him. After all, Grech’s sting was just that; a sting that went wrong, a very unfair “go” of the sort Aussies hate! The rising ALP stars (Gillard, Combet, Shorten, Roxon etc) have reputations for brilliance, level-headed tenacity, thoroughness – and winning – so are unlikely to make the sort of mistakes that cost government.
The last two governments have lasted 13 years (H-K) and almost 12 (JH) In 12 years time, a whole new generation will be waiting in the wings. If Malcolm runs true to form, he won’t contest the next election, tho he might already have resigned his seat before it.
The Australian on-line poll has an interesting result for my electorate.
Costello and Abbott are running neck and neck on 40%,
Hickey on 20%,
And Dutton and Turnbull haven’t even got any votes. “Could” indicate that away from the metropolitan electorates that Turnbull doesn’t rate and probably never has rated with voters from both major parties. IMO.
For the national figures, Costello rating at 43% and Turnbull at a wopping 24%. This poll is probably, for the first time, fairly indicative of the public opinion. IMO
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Excellent satirical piece by Ad Astra here. Covers everything, very funny.
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2009/06/29/Done28099t-blame-me.aspx
In this morning’s ‘Tiser, A Downer has written his weekly column, headlined “WIll the real PM please stand up”. In this column he write
Anyone who cares to read the conclusions of the commissioner can do so. There’s a whole sectioncalled “The knowledge of the Commonwealth”.
Page after detailed pagerepudiated every claim of lying Mr Rudd had levelled against the then prime minister, ministrs (including me) and the officers of the Department of Foreign Affairs.
Yet Mr Rudd had for months accused us of lying to Parliament perjuring ourselves before a royal commission and “not reading cables” (something I did assiduously as every officer in the department knew).
After the royal commission report was tabled in the Parliament, I assumed Mr Rudd would admit he had been wrong – or resign- for making totally false yet very serious allegations against ministers…..”
I can’t find any internet link to this article – does any PB have one?
It’s interesting to juxtaposition these reactions with Possum’s latest article in Crikey.
Downer wants to revist AWB …ha, what a dope. $300m bribes to a murderous dictator and he wants to remind people how incompetent he and the Howard govt were and how dirty they all seemed?
Go for it Dolly, let us bring it all back and, maybe another Royal Commission where PS don’t have to be worried about what they say.
BH, have actually atm tipped my blokes to come through … not quite sure why, but I’m going on my gut instincts as I got 8 last week so am flying atm ….. the 16 in my HS tipping comp, I was the only one getting 8 last week, heaps of 6’s, one 5 and 3 1’s. The 1’s must have been Libs
Tony Abbott putting on a brave face;
“When you’ve had a tough week you get bad polls. Labor threw everything bar the kitchen sink at us last week, but Malcolm Turnbull has not flinched and the party has not flinched.”
I’m sure he’d rather have been dining on crushed glass with a sprig of razor blade than having to say this.
So where’s Glen and GP? Missing in action?
Let’s all rub it in to Glen, that at the height of Utegate, he said Rudd’s Preferred PM would drop 20 percentage points. But instead, Turnbull’s dissatisfaction has gone up 20 points. Karma
Julian @ 200, reason Malcolm didn’t flinch is because no one is standing behind him to push him off the edge of the plank – YET
bob1234, mate, glen and gp are off to the doc getting their ulcers attended to
It is dawning, on the minds of Libs in marginal electorates, that Malcolm can only lead them to a train wreck election defeat.
They are looking for a leader who can deliver the “least bad” election result.
People Skills is busy on the phone I hear.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25707194-29277,00.html
GG [An updated summary of current events. Very funny.
http://bekk.blogspot.com/2009/06/utegate-as-told-by-lolcats.html
Thanks GG, that is absolutely CLASSIC! Especially love the interjecting poodle and the Hockey heavyweight rottweiler!
GG 193 KTHX for the link. Best laugh around here since SBC on Rove (which was the best since Albo’s Mark Latham effort on QT). Uz gud kat!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbulls-support-plummets-in-new-polls-20090629-d1f5.html
HAH, everyone knows Abbott hates the fact he’s been demoted. What utter comedy gold.
scorpio @ 195
The Australian on-line poll has an interesting result for my electorate.
Costello and Abbott are running neck and neck on 40% …
I filled in the poll, which didn’t have a “none of the above”, so I figured Cossie was the most mischievous choice! My electorate has very few Oz buyers (or on-line readers) and it likes only Cossie and Sloppy Joe.
Abbott’s 9-1 for Lib leader at the next federal election at Sportingbet, in from 34-1 on 1 April 2008 when I placed $20 on him; and 11-1 at Centrebet, in from 26-1 on Feb 11 2009 when I placed $60 on him (he wasn’t even listed in the field back in Feb, the bet was placed on “any other candidate”).
The real trumpet blowing will begin soon enough (that’s if Abbott gets the job and holds it until the next poll, niether of which are certain).
C’mon Monk Man, you know I need my bathroom renovated!
Excluding some of Malcolm Turnbull’s less attractive qualities, his terminal arrogance, his bullying, his condescension which tells us how lucky Oz is to have a man like him. His ability to concoct a story and to repeat it word-for-word to his hapless audience, his total self-belief that he was pre-ordained by God for any job he takes on. His ability to lie. Once, he was being interviewed by the ABC re a comment made by the then leader of the Libs. Someone handed him the wrong story and he was telling everyone belabouring the rightness of the story. Suddenly he was handed the real story. He did not miss a beat. He switched to the opposite tack without missing a breath.
However, what is it which distinguishes Malcolm Turnbull from other Liberal leaders? Take away his character traits and he becomes just another mirror image of all the other Liberal leaders.
The Libs are dying on their feet. Cut from the same cloth the Peter Costellos, Alexander Downers, John Howards, Malcolm Turnbulls of the Liberal Party assure the voters ‘more of the same’. They have become irrelevant. Just like the Liberal Party of Victoria. How could anyone vote for a faction riven party led by the amiable but not too bright Ted Baillieu?
It might be fair to suggest the conservative parties are lost in a time warp and the public doesn’t seem to too fussed about finding them.
I’ve whacked Essential Report up:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/29/essential-report-ozcar-fallout-edition/
It’s up for Labor as well.
Maybe a solution for the Liberals would be to split into two? One small l liberal party that would be attractive to many Labor voters, and one Conservative party that would be supported by rusted on Liberals.
No more party disunity, more choice for real liberal voters.
Downer, Costello, Howard and Turnbull cut from the same cloth? Do you have even the faintest knowledge of their family backgrounds? You really should inform yourself before saying such silly things.
The Democratic Liberal Party does have a certain ring to it…
Particularly its acronym. Back to the future!
The Liberal Democrats and the Conservative party of Australia.
At least the Rabble had one week where leadership speculation was off the agenda.
174
So he enjoys giving his permission to various projects like the pulp mill, uranium mines, and the various nutty water schemes of the Victorian state government and having too publicly disagree with most of his progressive views then?
Tomtfab
Any Environment Minister has to make decisions based on the law. If he fails to do this his decision will be appealed to the Courts.
AG wrote:
The wool perhaps came from different sheep. The cloth came from the same tedious, yarn-spinning factory.
The Libs routinely ooze “We’re the best. We’re the natural rulers. Everybody knows it. Why don’t the public just admit it?” and so on etc.
Once when Hawke said “Labor are the natural government of Australia” it caused a furore. No-one from his side in Federal politics has said it publicly since or even hinted at it. The Liberals are constantly on about it. They need to get over it or else they’ll be in opposition for years to come.
… and sauce bottles. I wonder when that’ll come up next?
Amazing how the commentators are mostly saying, “This is a Rudd we never knew.” They don’t get it at all. He won’t fit in their box.
Some recommendation! Two interesting points here, though.
Why would the electorate be impressed by this. “driven by his beliefs, not opinion polls.” His “beliefs” have been soundly rejected by the public through having their say in opinion polls. They also have rejected the Coalition as a whole going by the polls.
How “authentic” is a Leader (with a philosophical vein) who is driving his “beliefs” which are being soundly rejected by the electorate as reflected in the opinion polls. Multitudes of them!
How “authentic” is a Leader who uses forged documents (”not” authentic for those who are intellectually challenged) to try and bring down the country’s Prime Minister, Treasurer and hence the Government.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbulls-support-plummets-in-new-polls-20090629-d1f5.html
What is Malcolm’s “philosophical vein” – I deserve to be PM?
“Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has been criticised by West Australian Labor for pulling out of the party’s State Conference in Perth.
Mr Rudd was to be the keynote speaker at this weekend’s conference but cancelled earlier this week, citing a clash in schedules” ABC online
I guess making a total dick of yourself on Rove is more important when you’re a show pony?
JoelB1 – just think how much money Kev saved us by not flying to WA.
225 – Good one Joel. Enjoy opposition for a long time friend.
Joel B1
Go back to your room you petulant child.
I see you avatar is a billy goat. It was the billy goats gruff who were locked in battle with a troll. Maybe you should change your avatar to a troll.
Over the last 25 years, Labor has been the natural party of state government. Over that time, Labor has been in Power:
W.A. 16 years
S.A 15 years
Vic 18 years
N.S.W. 17.5
Tas 14 years
QLD 18 years.
Plus the first ever Labor government in N.T. starting in 2001, and just over half of the years of ACT self government have been Labor controlled.
Yes, especially if it is the W.A. Labor party.
Oops my apologies, that should be “a no-show pony”
LOL now that’s funny!!!
Abbott whinging to all and sundry that his man had the kitchen sink thrown at him needs to be reminded of one thing – Turnbull started it. The school bully has met his match (and then some). HTFU Turnbull or leave the playground.
Musrum @ 214 wrote:
“No more party disunity, more choice for real liberal voters.
The Democratic Liberal Party does have a certain ring to it…”
Like The Democratic Labor Party?
It does. These days, it’s called the religious right wing of the NSW Liberal party, and equivalents federally and in other states/territories. And it’s been very effective at keeping out of office the party it claims as its own.
How about “The Genuinely “l”iberal Liberal Party? You know, the party of Casey and Hasluck, Holt and Gorton, Fraser (probably even peacock).
Hilarious Joel B1.
@228 Steve K
“Joel B1
Go back to your room you petulant child.”
Ohhhh, I’m crying now, boo hoo…
You’re not a Rudd staffer/twitterer are you?
You know, the ones who gushed about Rudd on Rove, “I’ve got lot more respect [for Rudd]”
Or was this you “Sauce bottle joke – awesome! ‘Not often enough”?
That’s class!
Joel B1 you’re not Christopher Pyne are you?
You know, the one who gushed about Turnbull …
B1
While there are probably grounds to deny viewers of Rove the ability to cast a vote, they do vote.
They will now mostly vote for St Kev – that is why he appeared on the show.
@236 entre…
I know you’re a genuine Labor supporter because you “misdirect” every minor criticism of Rudd back to “but you’re one too!”
PS anyone brave enough to talk about Gillard? Esp. now she’s out of the country? I know I feel safer.
Which is a better move than appearing in front of the Party Faithfull at a State Conference.
Which is why Rudd successfully targetted the youth vote by appearing on Rove and FM Radio. The Libs still believe it is 1955 Australia and react accordingly
@237 ruawake,
but not if they live in WA and used to vote Labor.
JoelB1 – my teenage grandkids thought it was great and they will be first time voters in 2010.
Both happy with what they saw and heard. Lucky Kev – another conquest.
@239, FC,
I thought Howard pioneered FM radio? He’s often criticised for it.
Actually since elected PM, Rudd has been to WA more times than Turnbull has had successful hits at the Government
@241 BH, god help us.
I thought the Greens were bad wanting to lower the voting age to 16yo.
Let me guess, Kev wants to give foetuses the vote?
#238 as opposed to a ‘fake’ Labor supporter. How apropos of you!
Considering that the band you link to in your name is targetting that demographic, maybe it is a case of Pot meeting kettle.
The members for Stirling and Cowan are probably contemplating their future.
Don’t be cheeky Joel – my 19 yr old g/kids are intelligent, respectful of their elders and earning money while studying. They are also loads of fun. What more could Kev want for this country.
Actually Joel, I like the cut of your jib. It’s good to have some dissenting voices. Its easy to post on a site which mirrors your own convictions but you should be encouraged for posting here given that your ilk seem to be in the minority.
I though I would have a look at the depth of the liberal team.
I have combined the latest AC Nielsen:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=5.3&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
With the opinions of Andrew Elder:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2009/05/bonfire-of-dead-wood-and-i-just-hope.html
To derive the team list for Liberal Shadow Cabinet 2010.
Keep
* Hockey, The Hon Joe, Member for North Sydney
* Hunt, The Hon Greg, Member for Flinders
* Irons, Mr Steve, Member for Swan
* Ley, The Hon Sussan, Member for Farrer
* Moylan, The Hon Judi, Member for Pearce
* Robb, The Hon Andrew, Member for Goldstein
* Washer, Dr Mal, Member for Moore
Keep, Benefit of the doubt.
* Robert, Mr Stuart, Member for Fadden
* Marino, Ms Nola, Member for Forrest
Very Faint Praise
* Morrison, Mr Scott, Member for Cook
Dump
* Abbott, The Hon Tony, Member for Warringah
* Andrews, The Hon Kevin, Member for Menzies
* Bishop, The Hon Bronwyn, Member for Mackellar
* Bishop, The Hon Julie, Member for Curtin
* Briggs, Mr Jamie, Member for Mayo
* Ciobo, Mr Steven, Member for Moncrieff
* Haase, Mr Barry, Member for Kalgoorlie
* Hawke, Mr Alex, Member for Mitchell
* Hawker, The Hon David, Member for Wannon
* Jensen, Dr Dennis, Member for Tangney
* Macfarlane, The Hon Ian, Member for Groom
* May, Mrs Margaret, Member for McPherson
* Mirabella, Mrs Sophie, Member for Indi
* Ruddock, The Hon Philip, Member for Berowra
* Secker, Mr Patrick, Member for Barker
* Smith, The Hon Tony, Member for Casey
* Stone, The Hon Dr Sharman, Member for Murray
* Tuckey, The Hon Wilson, Member for O’Connor
Lost seat (58% TPP)
* Broadbent, Mr Russell, Member for McMillan
* Markus, Mrs Louise, Member for Greenway
* Ramsey, Mr Rowan, Member for Grey
* Randall, Mr Don, Member for Canning
* Schultz, Mr Alby, Member for Hume
* Gash, Mrs Joanna, Member for Gilmore
* Billson, The Hon Bruce, Member for Dunkley
* Turnbull, The Hon Malcolm, Member for Wentworth
* Johnson, Mr Michael, Member for Ryan
* Slipper, The Hon Peter, Member for Fisher
* Somlyay, The Hon Alexander, Member for Fairfax
* Southcott, Dr Andrew, Member for Boothby
* Vaile, The Hon Danna, Member for Hughes
* Baldwin, The Hon Bob, Member for Paterson
* Pyne, The Hon Christopher, Member for Sturt
* Simpkins, Mr Luke, Member for Cowan
* Keenan, Mr Michael, Member for Stirling
* Farmer, The Hon Pat, Member for Macarthur
* Wood, Mr Jason, Member for La Trobe
* Lindsay, The Hon Peter, Member for Herbert
* Dutton, The Hon Peter, Member for Dickson
* Laming, Mr Andrew, Member for Bowman
* Bailey, The Hon Fran, Member for McEwen
Retiring
* Nelson, The Hon Dr Brendan, Member for Bradfield
* Costello, The Hon Peter, Member for Higgins
* Georgiou, Mr Petro, Member for Kooyong
* Pearce, The Hon Chris, Member for Aston
This would leave the team captain (Joe) with the most marginal seat.
Have I missed anyone who is retiring?
ABC Sydney radio 6pm news headline:
Lovely.
And after a terrific day of watching David Spiers face fall further to the floor (he looks like he’s lost a million bucks while talking about the polls) I’m off to get dinner and bother my other half to open a bottle.
Joel B1,
Take a little time out and read this form the ABC On-line. And read the comments too, then come back to us and with a straight face repeat your previous statements.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2610903.htm
Note also that if it was a News Ltd blog there’d be an hour’s delay and then the post wouldn’t be published. Learn a lesson, Joel, about freedom of speech.
Slow it down a bit…
For you guys it’s one-on-one for me it’s one-on-four or so..
@253 FC, sorry you’re wrong F. That band is “well old” and at their last gig the zimmer frames were out.
@255 BH, nothing personal, but lets face it, would you want 19yo’s running the country? Why do you think the Greens want to lower the voting age?
@256 en, Thanks I like your jib too…
227
The environment minister seems to be taking a very pro-state Labor (and their nutty projects) view of a lot of these projects. If this is because of the law then the law needs changing.
@261 BB
I’m not News Ltd, on my blog BB you’ld not only be published but thanked for having an opinion and bothering to post it…
What’s News got to do with it? more “misdirection”?
@260 S,
I think Kev twitting prior to Rove “How do I get out of this guys? says it all.
Go to the WA conference you were booked into Kev, you utter publicity tart!
??Joel, who said anything about 19 year olds running the country?
BH is just saying they’re going to vote for the first time at the next election.
Are you anti democracy or something?
I heard he invented the Electric Telegraph too (he’s old enough), but I won’t criticise him for it.
Getting out of going out of Rove by going to a stupid W.A. party conference would be gutless.
As opposed to “Honest John” who did his best to ingrain himself with the Cricket Fraternity at every opportunity, as well as every other major sport
OK Joel, that’s enough. You got your 5 minutes of attention. Bye, bye.
LOL, I am watching the channel 7 news in Sydney and they interviewed a number Liberal MP’s who have all said that Turnbull will still be leading the Party.
Turnbull is sooo gone, it’s as if his funeral – was like- yesterday.
Musrum @ 257
Not a good look!
Musrum
Interesting post. Hawker has announced he won’t be re nominating
And a virtual box of chocolates to the first to pick who my Gravatar is.
Evening, earthlings. My, what a day of polling treats, and I must say from Tony Abbott’s early complaints on AM that the poor polling for Malcolm was all due to the nasty ALP smearing, it’s just got more weird. That complaint caused the coffee out the nostrils reaction. Who would have thought that Kevin Rudd might be one tough nut capable of mounting an extremely competent political campaign? Oh wait, is this the Kevin Rudd who steered Labor to victory since becoming Leader? The Kevin Rudd, who in facing a global financial crisis, has headed a very focussed and disciplined government, that thus far, on the evidence, seems to be making the right policy moves to cushion our economy? The Kevin Rudd that the MSM deride as a nerd or boring or trying too hard to be blokey, whose netsat ratings continue to be amazing?
That Kevin Rudd, Joel B1?
Don’t know if this was posted previously or not, I just heard about it for the first time several hours ago
…. Good on you, Pete 
Frank @ 246
Seeing you raise the LNP 1950’s picket fence idyll (especially around a cricket ground of course), this week’s quiz (or one of them) :
In this shot of the 1955 annual citizenship convention at the Albert Hall (original with our names weren’t we?), it says under the shot that two embryonic PM’s were there – Harold Holt and Gough Whitlam. Holt is easy to pick, but your mission, should you accept, is to find Gough:
http://www.naa.gov.au/whats-on/online/showcases/albert-hall/shaping.aspx
Joel B1,
Just for you buddy. Look at this and weep!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/06/turnapprov.png
This is allegedly what K Rudd ate at Rove last night:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/large/14536528.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=0ZRYP5X5F6FSMBCCSE82&Expires=1246264561&Signature=Ee%2Bt43QHuOXqrn1Ho8YJ0KuyHvM%3D
Scorpio @ 278
It looks like the rot started to set in during January. Any idea what it might have been?
Musrum @ 257
Steve Irons would be “lost seat” as well, as Swan is notionally Labor.
BK,
1.Everyone had been on holiday for a month (Absence made the heart grow fonder with regards to Turnbull) so the voters were feeling generous.
2. Rudd’s article on neo Liberalism messed with the Liberal minds and they haven’t worked it out yet.
3. Inauguration of Obama.
BK,
It looks to be fairly dramatic from the 12th of January which is in the quiet period, ie holiday time.
So much has happened that I would have difficulty pinning it down.
Maybe Possum could help?
Did anyone hear Kev say last night that THE hairdryer didn’t exist? It was a concocted story.
Gough, second gent, front on the left!
Abbott was whining that Labor threw everything but the kitchen sink at Turnbull last week. Obviously the Libs see Julia Gillard as the kitchen sink. She’s coming at you soon, Tony. Be afraid, very afraid.
Joel,
Five Words.
Julie Bishop Godd News Week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l58Mja25nU
This says it all… from the Tele’s “Bruno” coverage:
Jeez, compare this to attending the WA Labor Conference to field questions about the rights of the CFMEU and/or going on Insiders to get a bashing about Parliamentary misrepresentation and there’s really no contest, is there?
Holy hell! This is from Channel 9:
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/3461/turnbull.jpg
It seems to show Turnbull even losing at Tetris.
To quote Lance Corporal Jack Jones, “They don’t like it up ‘em!”
Shows On,
I think I will print that one out and frame it. lol
ru,
There is certainly a whiff of “Don’t panic!” about the Libs at the moment.
Just wait till the kitchen sink ala Julia arrives back. Pass the popcorn!
Oh and the weather was stormy, cold and wet as well, which is why I didn’t even go and I’m a Party Member
Thanks. So that leaves six keepers.
This is a bit serious. Looks like fairfax were a bit piqued at missing out on the action.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/fairfax-sorry-over-gillard-trip-alert-20090629-d2br.html
I just looked up Goerge Bush’s worst approval and disapproval ratings.
Turnbull actually has a lower approval rating (24%) than Bush ever had. Turnbull still could reach the stratospheric disapproval rating of 71% if he keeps going. He’s 60% but a good narcissistic rage could see him reach the heights of GWB.
Dio,
That’s the most disparaging thing said about Turnbull so far!
To quote Koutsoukis about comments he recieved from St Kev.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/labors-losing-battle/2006/11/25/1164341443336.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Suck the sauce bottle Jason.
I thought that was established fairly quickly after the event, but conveniently ignored by MSM.
Some promising signs over the weekend on the trail to Copenhagen. If I’m not mistaken as to the glimpses I had of the news:
1. Gordon Brown committing to +2 degrees C maximum – a la Sir Nick Stern.
2. Obama garnering some more support at home among the Dems for his temporary (I hope) targets.
3. Wong endorsing Brown’s statement.
This will lead to the pressure increasing on the LNP, Greens, and Fielding to pass the ETS legislation in August.
The last vestiges of resistance should now be gone, even though the Greens may well keep up the pressure for as long as possible for better targets (nothing wrong with that). But I can’t see anyone voting it down at the death but idiot Fielding and a few idiot Nationals who might cross the floor.
Scopio
With the slicked back black hair? Are you sure?
Judging by the Rove performance, (I could smell his minders rubbing their hands with glee at the shrieks & cheers) Rudd will go as early as he can. If Turnbull is still leader, the coalition will loose 10+ seats , if he isn’t they’ll loose 20+….watch Sharman & the Right play the race card, while the far right “Independents” fall in line for places on Senate tickets.
I didn’t believe it at first either, but it is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gough_whitlam
What are you referring to?
If Turnbull thinks he had a bad week, last week. Just wait – worse is to come.
jv,
Got to giggle with the Greens acolytes such as yourself pretending they have anything to do with what is going on with ETS. The Government has done all the heavy lifting and the Greens have made themselves irrelevant.
Bob Brown and the merry inconsequentials are a laughing stock.
scorpio “Gough, second gent, front on the left!”
Yep, 2nd row between the first row’s 3rd & 4th women from the left.
Psephos @ 303
& Polyquats
I’m still not sure it’s Gough. The hair of that chap isn’t wavy.
You might know Psephos. Is it Gough second chap from the left in this Pic? Doesn’t look like him to me, but the archives say he’s in there somewhere. it’s important – another virtual Coopers is at stake.
http://www.naa.gov.au/whats-on/online/showcases/albert-hall/shaping.aspx
Here’s a headline worth keeping for a couple of weeks.
The Liberal Party risks being labelled weak and pathetic if it replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader on the back of poor opinion polls, a Coalition frontbencher says.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2611796.htm
Well what a lovely set of numbers …
As uttered by the Flight Centre Captain – aka Christopher Pyne
From Malcolm Farnsworth Twitter:
GG – well the “coalition frontbencher” is Chris Pyne, so keeping that for a couple of weeks may be about how long that part stays current as well!
Coaching witnesses?
Whitlam is up the back. If you drop a vertical line 7cm from centre of the coat of arms on the side of the building you will see him.
Dunno Psephos – everyone in that photo looks like my Grandfather.
hmm, maybe not tall enough either. If the women are spouses, might it be easier to look for Margaret?
But Andrew, he is your “shadowy” Treasury official.
Under a Labor Government there will always be more Opposition Leaders.
A sure sign that they know that GG is going to spill his guts and possible has the evidence to support his story.
Still no Glen or GP! It can’t just be coincidence… they’ve gotta be avoiding PB!
Diog, i saw an earlier post where someone was trying to steal your crown and admitting that he was wRONg.
Surely, you are going to give up so easily. Even Turnbull knows how to fight.
It really pi$$es me off how everyone uses Machiavelli as a lazy ignorant euphemism for nasty politics. He was ruthless and calculating but that is a good thing as long as it’s tempered by good qualities, of which Niccolo had many. He was highly principled and wanted good government.
From the Mad Monk;
I assure you that is Gough up the back of the photo. I have enlarged and circled him here:
http://www.adam-carr.net/gough.bmp
They’ve been replaced by JoelB1
Still looks like my Gandpa! (Was it illegal in the 1950s to look different to anyone else???)
GG @ 308, if memory serves that was the very same reason that saw Brendan Nelson exiting the leadership role ….. if that reason was enough to boot Nelson, it ought to also be good enough to boot Malcolm
No missing Holt though.
Decoded: “Last week we make a really stupid mistake, falsely accusing Kevin Rudd of corruption and lying to Parliament, and he ruthlessly exposed us the bungling smear-merchants we are, and now we’re really embarrassed and don’t know what to do.”
ROTFK. Nearly spat my corn chips up against the wall.
He is a respected senior public servant when talks of alleged emails and favours for Grant that cause damage to the govt, he is a shadowy Treasury figure when said emails turn out to be faked and cause damage to the opposition.
Grog, maybe Gough IS your granpda.
The 1950s was a decade that placed a premium on conformity. Don’t forget most of these men spent five years in uniform.
If any of youse wonder why I misspell so many words it’s because I’m too cheap to replace my keyboard which has had, in turns, coffee (twice), wine and cat’s pi$$ spilled all over it.
Some of the keys stick.
When I save up $15, I’ll buy a new one.
castle,
I’m sure Godwin will be well respected by the Libs right up to the moment he spills his guts and implicates the Liberal hierarchy in is nefarious leaking.
The crucifiction of Grech’s integrity will be a morality tale for all to behold.
So Kev is ruthless, quick acting, calculating, organised and calm in a crisis and the opposition are portraying this as something wrong?
The born to rule Liberal party having grown used to bending the rules, abusing position and power so much, would have had trouble distinguishing between proper and improper conduct being out of power. Having a reckless and aggressive man as shadow Treasurer and then Leader would have encouraged them to push the limits even further.
It is quite easy to imagine that one or more of the group (we can imagine some) would have gone a little more than just a little over the line. In fact having a Treasury official(s) as insiders also makes you privy to certain beneficial financial information.
Another habit hard to break for this group is thinking they have the ‘right’ to push public servants around and demand things and threaten if people prove reticent. However out of power such behavior can be illegal.
It wouldn’t be too hard to imagine the sort of trouble such people could have gotten themselves into.
Just out of interest, does anyone know the record for the number of Opposition leaders in a single term?
Are we counting Costello?
Whereas John Howard was St Francis of Assisi, who loved animals and small children (though not in the Michael Jackson way), and always forgave his enemies their mistakes and never *dreamed* of exploiting them for political purposes, like by ruthlessly wedging them with the voters and calling them soft on terrorism or anything underhanded like that. Also he *never* falsely claimed to have pictures of children being thrown overboard, or that he had intelligence proving that Iraq had WMD when they didn’t. He would *never* do anything like that. Not ever.
Psephos wrote:
Grog, maybe Gough IS your granpda.
The 1950s was a decade that placed a premium on conformity. Don’t forget most of these men spent five years in uniform.
It’s called Brylcreem (?spelling)
Bryl-creem, a little dab’ll do ya,
Use more, only if you dare,
But watch out,
The gals will all pursue ya,–
They’ll love to put their fingers through your hair.
Bryl-creem, a little dab’ll do ya,
Bryl-creem, you’ll look so debonair.
Bryl-creem, the gals will all pursue ya,
They’ll love to RUN their fingers through your hair.
The Wiki picture of Gough is probably earlier (when wavy hair was IN) but the height, hairline, pixi ears and cheekbones are unmistakable.
castle,
It’s all driven by polls. The Libs have a huge problem with women. Women don’t like aggressive bullying men. So the meme begins that Rudd is too pushy is a direct appeal to women.
Unfortunately, Abbott is the wrong person to be promulgating this response. Bishop or some half competent woman on the Libs side needs to be entrusted with communicating this message.
The only reason Abbott is good for women is that he has been used as a doormat by successive women Labor frontbenchers.
GG @ 305
Wrong, again. As I’ve said before, I support the emissions legislation being passed, even if it isn’t toughened up. I was giving some credit where some credit is due, and it was refreshing to see Penny Wong saying something more positive than usual, even if it was just following on from Gordon Brown.
The main thing is, despite the governments delay until after the election, from where we now find ourselves, don’t we all want a successful Copenhagen meeting, with targets at least in line with Stern?
Not yet
Sorry Psephos, cross-post. Didn’t take long to find him with your earlier instruction, even if all monitors are not the same size.
I think it’s three.
1993-96: Hewson, Downer, Howard
2001-04: Beazley, Crean, Latham (although Beazley quit straight after the election)
2004-07: Latham, Beazley, Rudd
Psephos
You get the virtual Coopers tonight. That’s Gough. Well done. No Margaret though.
ozpol,
We can do better than mere words. Some of our PBers weren’t born when the best ads were produced.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRcRIbExrfg
And then the rest of their lives in a civilian one (grey flannel suit…)
Whenever Abbott mentions Bonheoffer you know he’s hurting inside.
What about Rudd and Brendan doing a double act on the news, don’t know what the story was but they were kneeling down with a group of kids smiling and Kev had his hand on Brendan’s shoulder like as though he was his bestest mate. Is Brendan about to switch back from the dark side do you think?
And here is the ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLjq86SXvSk
jv,
I have been re edumacated.
You’ve always been a supporter of Labor’s emission plan as have the Greens.
Is that the only photo in history that does not feature Gough as the centre of everyone’s attention?
Geee Keating the Musical was a let down at the end trust some latte sipping labourite left wing writer to have Keating beat Howard in the 1996 election…
Thank god that fool didnt get a second term, Keating almost makes Rudd look good.
Quite frankly the people have gone off Turnbull in a big way and he’s never really had them any way…
Who cares about looking weak when you’re 55-45+ behind in the polls forget that, face it we are already weak!
We need another leader and soon but im not sure who?
Glen,
I never agree with you, but you’ve got courage. Good on you!
And at least it’s not liquid courage
Vera @ 348
He’s retiring at the next election. Kev’s probably offering him a job (hasn’t offered JH one yet!)
You only just saw it? Wow…
Keating did get a second term… 1993-1996
Keating did more reform in the Australian economy than all the Liberal Party PMs put together, it’s just a shame that as an economic liberal, you either can’t admit it, or even worse, can’t see it…
But, well done for coming back here!
Why don’t you have a go, Glen? You could hardly do worse.
Is the triumphalism over the Rudd/Gillard Government’s ETS premature?
It will take a couple of decades to determine whether it really is a good climate change response.
It is a pretty lame ETS, per se. Plenty of excellent analysis on this, so no need to repeat it all.
In purely practical terrms, the ETS is somewhat better than nothing at all, provided it really does provide the quickest way to doing something real later on. It is for this reason that I now support it.
The ETS may reflect political reality – there would be better judges on this blog than myself on this matter – those who really do understand the KathnKims, the Aspirational Voters, those who understand the powerful ones who benefited most from pumping CO2 into the atmosphere in the first place, and, of course, those who understand the power of the wily old King Carbon.
In political terms the ETS is ‘realistic’, ‘practical’ and ‘balanced.’
So, the triumphalism is most probably well-based in the political sense.
Will the triumphalism survive the next couple of decades as attention focuses increasingly on the bio-physical realities of climate change as they continue to kick in?
Glen has to win preselection for Higgins first. And he’s hoping rough Brough, Mr 10%+ 2pp swing in 2007, top 5 in Australia, will win it.
Grog @ 351
If you look closely at Adam’s enlargement (as it were) you’ll see that everyone is most amused. One bloke just in front og Gough nd to his left has even turned around in his helpless mirth to see who keeps coming out with the stream of humorous and appropriate one-liners. Of course back then he would have been uttering them in Latin.
Ozpol, it had slipped my mind for a minute that Brendan is quitting, that’s probably why he’s the happiest and most relaxed looking Liberal at the moment.
Pass, i’d rather not be Opposition Leader for 5+ years
Keating didnt win his ‘first’ term as Hawke won it for him…
Keating did some good things with the economy but he also gave it a recession and massive unemployment…oh and he lost to John Howard lol.
There would be something in it for a Howard musical but i doubt the art community would back it unless it was anti….
Quite right jv!
Yep, Keating the Muscial is the main topic of today….
Whitlam continued to use hair-oil (though I doubt it was Brylcreeme, probably something more classy) until his trip to China in 1971, when he apparently ran out of it while travelling, and came back with his “fluffy look”, which everyone said looked much better so he stuck with it.
Psephos
Dolly’s article today included a quote from Rudd saying something like the presence of WMDs in Iraq being “an indisputable fact” or words to that effect, while he was Shadow Foreign Minister. He’s now very, very cross about Rudd accusing the Libs of taking us to war based on a lie. Sorry but I don’t have the link.
It’s true Rudd thought there were WMDs in Iraqw. But he still didn’t vote to go to war. Many in the LIberal Party might have thought the email real, that doesn’t mean they all thought Turnbull’s strategy was right.
Oh, what a pity it isn’t a visual, Diog….Alex always looks so cute when he’s cwoss.
I heard a sound grab today of Ttone, and gee did he sound cut.
The bonheoffer thingy sounded like he was talking about a lost love.
and therein lies the Libs problems. No-one wants to put in the hard yards without personal reward at the end. None of that ‘for the good of the party’ nonsense for the Libs.
Abbott finds it most offensive that anyone other than him is allowed to have religious convictions or quote theologians.
Rudd and Nelson looked very chummy today, any chance the PM will offer Nelson a job after he leaves parliament?
Kev on Twitter re Today’s photo Op
Glen: The problem with your side of politics is that they still haven’t accepted they lost the 2007 election, and are reliant on silly stunts/obstruction/leaks from their public service plants & media toadies.
poly im not a career politician, so i wouldnt use that quote against me or the party…
What is true is that MT would stay for 5+ years as Opposition Leader if he became PM one day…Im not sure anyone else ‘wants’ it as much as he?
I think you’re right there.
I think because despite it all, Nelson is a decent bloke. (plus they both hate Turnbull
)
Evan i think that statement used by all those on the Left is purile, of courrse we have accepted we lost in 2007 the trouble is we have no plan to take us back into government…we need some policies quick smart…
Keating didn’t give the Australian economy a recession. Most developed countries went into recession in the early 1990s.
Keating took us out of a recession in 1982 that Fraser and Howard ‘gave’ us.
Surely the first step involves Turnbull announcing that all Liberal M.P.s who are 65 or over will be retiring at the next election. He can thank them for their services to the country, but explain that they have all told him it is time to move on.
Psephos
Maybe it was “Dapper Dan” hair pomade as worn by George Clooney’s character in the great film “Oh Brother Where art Thou” which was set in the late 30s. It wouldn’t have been the “Fop” brand, I feel sure, the one Clooney rejected in the film.
Otherwise it could have been “Californian Poppy” hair oil like I wore as a teenager.
No, he only looks like one because he isn’t Oppo Leader any more. It’s only a year since we were reviling his stupid, cynical, dishonent stunting about starving pensioners eating dog food, remember? He’s vain, treacherous, opportunist and self-seeking, and now he’s baling out because he can’t be PM. Rudd’s chumminess with Nelson and Costello is just another mind-game to niggle Turnbull.
You Liberals keep saying that, but you fail to say what actions caused it, rather than the global economy.
should have been clearer. not directed at you. definitely directed at sitting members.
I think they should pass the leadership to one of the more senior members, someone with no interest in being PM, who has the authority and experience to pull the ranks together before handing over to someone electable. Not going to happen, though. Self-destruction will probably continue unabated.
And that’s the problem with you Liberals and the US Repugs. You’ve gone too far to the right to the point where your remaining policies aren’t palatable to the general public. Your only choice is to come back to the centre, but you won’t. You’re in opposition for a loooong time.
Nope – no plan means you haven’t accepted why you lost. Too many think it was just “it’s time”.
When you get some policies, then you can say you have accepted the defeat.
That Turnbull has Chris Kenny as CoS says a lot.
Not that you’re a hater,psephos
I am a hater, and I don’t pretend otherwise. Particular of Labor rats like Nelson and Costello. Nelson demanded a safe seat and when we wouldn’t give him one he went and got one from the Libs. He’s beneath contempt IMHO.
4 Corners reveals another Amanda Vanstone stuff up.
Life’s too short Psephos.
I only devote an hour or two a day to hate. The rest I devote to music, art, architecture, philosophy, history, fine dining, literature … and election statistics.
Geez, even Big Brother only asked for “Two Minutes of Hate”!
The Unmaking of Australian National Security Policy
Address to the Fabian Society’s
Annual Chifley Me morial Lecture
By Kevin Rudd, MP
Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, Trade
and International Security
22 March 2006
http://www.fabian.org.au/1044.asp
Seeing Pyne & Abbott defend Turnbull today reminded me of this song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sujz6DwEnx4
23 Sept 2002:
But 4 Feb 2003:
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/summary/summary.w3p;adv=;group=;orderBy=;page=0;query=WMD%20Dataset%3Ahansardr,hansards%20((SpeakerId%3A83T));querytype=;resCount=Default
Emailgate on Media Watch tonight. Q for discussion was: should Steve Lewis be forced to reveal a source if tainted. No definitive answer.
Why wasn’t the question: should Steve Lewis be required to commit seppuku on the steps of Parliament House? I believe that is what the Murdoch Press Code of Honour requires of underlings who fail their assigned tasks.
OK, Media Watch has again raised the point about Grech’s evidence being under oath.
I thought we had resolved (cos Pseph said) that evidence in Senate hearings wasn’t under oath.
So I’ve just checked the “Government guidelines for official witnesses before Parliamentary committees and related matters” and can find no reference to oaths.
http://www.aph.gov.au/SENATE/committee/wit_sub/gov_full.htm
I found a link for Dolly’s article.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25704825-5006703,00.html
And here is a section of a good interview of Rudd’s view’s on the War.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2004/s1155011.htm
Psephos,
Too much blood.
They’ve got a shit sheet to get out.
A document or words purported to come from a genuine document that turns out to be fake and, the production of the fake a crime, should not afford a journalist the opportunity to protect their source. They are no longer protecting a source but an alleged criminal of some sort or the path to a criminal.
If you allow the protection of sources where there is falsified information then you allow anything to be produced and at the most politically inopportune time.
I’ve watched a lot of Senate hearings and I’ve never seen an oath administered. Senate committee chairs aren’t judges, they’re just Senators. Giving false evidence is a contempt, which can be prosecuted as a criminal offence, but it’s not perjury.
VP #395
Intersting interpretation of Media Watch you have there VP….my take on the “Q for discussion” was weather jouranlists are free to disclose sources that have lied to them.
The implication being, that Steve Lewis should feel free to run with the ‘fake’ story independent of the AFP investigation.
In Canada, apparently, the journalistic code of ethics (tee hee) says that if the source lies “all bets are off.”
Glen @ 377 wrote:
“Evan i think that statement used by all those on the Left is purile, of courrse we have accepted we lost in 2007 the trouble is we have no plan to take us back into government…we need some policies quick smart…”
I’ll believe that the Coalition has accepted it’s 2007 defeat when:
1. Members stop throwing QT “lollypops” at the government, only to have them smashed for six. Dorothy Dixers you ask in government; in Opposition the same sort of questions are own goals. Utegate apart, most Opposition questions have been own goals.
2. Members stop asking questions (esp lollypops) of the best government performers. The first Utegate questions apart (4 June), during that “Good news for the government week”, the Opposition asked Rudd, Gillard and other good performers what amounted to Dorothy Dixers, for which they smirked and/or gloated, “And I thank the homorable member for the question” having come very well prepared. Smart Opposition members, coping with good news for the government, ask obscure ministers of non-newsworthy portfolios curly questions, thereby minimising the government’s ability to show off for the viewing/ listening public.
3. They remember that what they got away with in government – in the Howard government, far more than most other governments I’ve seen/heard (ie since c1947) – and assume their opposites (now the government) will also get away with similar scandals. Utegate was not in the same race as a string of Howard gov scandals (inc using taxpayer’s hard-earned tp bail out his brother).
4. The Coalition has actually developed policies; when I can actually identify what it stands for, what its alternative policies are.
5. It’s worked out that, to sell themselves to the electorate, Oppositions DO have to be “Into the vision thing”. Only governments can run on their records.
And that’s just for starters…
Squig,
The last ten per cent of the program discussed your point.
Anyhow, it should be available for download shortly from the ABC, for those interested in the full version.
Abbott and Robb were not defending Turnbull today, they were preparing to stab him in the back. That’s how they do it in politics.
Everybody knows that it was Turnbull doing all the dirt throwing and not Labor throwing everything bar the kitchen sink at him, and it was Turnbull associating himself with a shadowy character. It’s their way of exposing Turnbull’s poor judgement and lack of fitness to continue to lead the Party.
Who needs the OO, Age or SMH when local newspapers all over the country are spreading the news on a grassroots level singing the praises of Kevin.
http://www.mudgeeguardian.com.au/news/local/news/general/thanks-again-kevin/1552841.aspx
http://www.cowraguardian.com.au/news/local/news/general/another-174000-for-cowra/1553380.aspx
The interesting question about Lewis and News is why, in the face of a repudiation of any email existing that connected Rudd and Ozcar that they ran the email anyway. This repudiation occurred on the Friday night. News ran with the photoshopped email on the Saturday.
What checks did they perform? Who would have confirmed the veracity of the email?
GG
Grech confirmed it, although he didn’t provide it to them IMHO.
Joe the cameraman??
No-one, obviously. That’s why Rudd gave them such a serve in the Reps on (I think) Tuesday. The first rule of politics is “never pick a fight with the Murdoch press,” but Rudd obviously feels confident enough to break it. It’s hard to think what more they could throw at him, and so far it’s all just bounced off.
I’m going to assume you’re right, so this is the end game, right here, right now
I hope I’m correct, putting my trust in your knowledge
The next few days will answer this …one way or…(perhaps I’ve watched to much West Wing)
Diogs,
Usually you need at least two independant verifications before running with a story of this status. Grech being the source is one thing. Grech as a witness is not a second source. Perhaps the Libs (either Abetz or Turnbull) confirmed the story.
There is more to why Turnbull attended the meeting with Grech. Surely, the alternative leader would have had intermediaries deal with this up until that moment at least.
Turnbull should have been the last reference rather than a player.
VP
All Media Watch did for me tonight was re-inforce most of the questions I have already
ie what is the nature of the concoction?
Not much information is coming from the AFP – it would help if Steve L filled us in,
Media Watch also showed the bit from the Senate where Cameron asked Grech: “How many times did you speak to Lewis yesterday?”
Answer: 4.
This was not reported by the msm.
I believe Steve Lewis has already taken up his new assignment as special correspondent in Tajikistan.
So Abetz could read it from the newspaper on Friday morning…
I’m sure Lewis thought he had a Gold Walkley. But, looks like he’s going to be covering the Dapto dogs from now on.
Musrum,
It might have been a leap day!
I guess we all to often know the answer to that. There was no stopping the msm smear, you would almost think it was prearranged.
Rudd has been super confident from the beginning, you would almost think he knows there could be a whole bunch of people in big trouble with the AFP, hence the serve on some of the media. We should not forget Gillard made a few attacks before she left as well, before the story broke.
All the journos so keen to join in a smear of Rudd, missed the biggest story of all. If the listened to Rudd some enterprising journo could have gone for the prize by suggesting it could be a hoax and running that line. But nope.
Speaking of Libs defending Malcolm today we were looking at A-Pac around 7pm local (9pm Sydney/Melbourne) and noted Tony Abbot and Chris Pyne each had their own 10 mins. or so of personal air time on A-Pac …… my husband said “what the h***? since when does Pyne deserve a second of air time?” and promptly passed him by
Dio – very interesting #409…..there is still alot of room to speculate.
I find the news that there is a real historical example of an email/Prime Minister issue in a legal jurisdication that is similar to our own (Canada) to score 10 out 10 in terms of co-incidence
Just as a thought exercise, imagine a scenario where GG hadn’t heard of the email at the time Steve Lewis read it out to him on the phone…
would GG type it out as he heard the email read to him? say, for example, in the same way a journalist would take notes during a conversation, just to keep a record…
Now, would the AFP still view that as a ‘concoction”?
It was for MT.
Maybe the Dark Lord rang them up from New York and said “Nail that little commo jerk Rudd on this or I’ll have your goolies on a plate tomorrow. If you don’t have any evidence, make it up, that’s what I always used to do, and no-one will dare call you on it.”
For those interested, here is a comparison of the US climate bill and the CPRS, by the Parliamentary Library.
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/BN/2008-09/ClimateChangeBill.htm#_Toc232926818
In summary – both are woefully inadequate and there’s little point in pursuing either. The CPRS is weaker than the US bill in a number of areas.