An unprecedented triple whammy of opinion polls is disastrous enough for the Coalition to lend force to Dennis Shanahan’s assertion that “Malcolm Turnbull’s political career has been smashed in just one week”. In turn:
• Arriving a day earlier than usual, Newspoll shows that the Coalition recovery detected a fortnight ago has come to a sudden end, with Labor’s lead back out from 53-47 to 56-44. The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent. However, the real shock is that Turnbull’s personal ratings have suffered what Shanahan calls “the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history”: his approval rating has plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent, while his disapproval is up from 37 per cent to 58 per cent. Fifty-two per cent do not believe that John Grant received preferential treatment from the Prime Minister against only 24 per cent who do. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 57-25 to 65-18.
• ACNielsen, which is hopefully back to monthly polling as we enter the second half of the term, has Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 46 per cent while the Coalition’s is down six to 37 per cent. Fifty-three per cent say the OzCar affair has left them with a less favourable impression of Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval is down 11 points to 32 per cent with his disapproval has shot up 13 points to 60 per cent. Turnbull comes third as preferred Liberal leader with 18 per cent, behind Peter Costello on 37 per cent and Joe Hockey on 21 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 64-28 to 66-25, and his approval rating is up three points to 67 per cent.
• Galaxy has Labor’s primary vote up a point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s down two to 30 per cent. Sixty-one per cent believe Kevin Rudd has been open and honest about the OzCar affair, while 51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.
Once again, Victoria dominates the latest round of electoral news:
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has tabled two major reports which I haven’t got round to sinking my teeth into: the regular conduct of the federal election report, and that into the Commwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that complicated quarreling in the Victorian ALP has thrown up “rogue challengers” against at least ten state MPs. Keilor MP George Seitz, who faces enforced retirement in the wake of the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council, is said to be largely reponsible: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews identifies his state nominees as Tomislav Tomic (against Bundoora MP Colin Brooks), Seeralan Arumugam Gunaratnam (Carrum MP Jenny Lindell), Raymond Congreve (Lara MP John Eren), Rosa Mitrevski (Mill Park MP Lily D’Ambrosio), Philip Cassar (Mordialloc MP Janice Munt), Teodoro Tuason (Narre Warren North MP Luke Donnellan), Teresa Kiselis and Mate Barun (both taking on Northcote MP Fiona Richardson), Josefina Agustin (Prahran MP Tony Lupton), and Blagoja Bozinovski (Thomastown MP Peter Batchelor). For good measure, Seitz candidate Manfred Kriechbaum is taking on federal MP Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell. Other challengers are explained by Wallace in terms the “stability pact” forged between the Left and the Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and Steven Conroy, and counter-moves by rival Right unions seeking to forge ties with some of the more militant unions of the Left. This presumably accounts for Australian Manufacturing Workers Union candidate Andrew Richards joining the aforementioned Kriechbaum in a three-horse race against Vamvakinou in Calwell, Lisa Zanatta of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union challenging Lynne Kosky in Altona, and Kathleen Matthews-Ward of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association joining the Seitz challengers to Fiona Richardson in Northcote. The option of referring preselections to the party’s national executive remains available to John Brumby, who must be sorely tempted.
• Other challenges appear more obscure. A third Labor Unity candidate, Rick Garotti, is listed as a nominee against incumbent Craig Langdon in Ivanoe, in addition to the previously discussed Anthony Carbines. In Preston, Labor Unity MP Robin Scott is being challenged by Moreland councillor Anthony Helou (once of the Socialist Left, but more recently of Labor Unity) and Tamer Kairouz, said by Landeryou to be backed by upper house MP Nazih Elasmar, a principal of a Right sub-faction also linked with Theo Theophanous (not sure if any relation to Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz). Two Socialist Left members are under challenge from factional colleagues, which Andrew Landeryou suggests can be put down to dealings between the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and unions on the Right: Yuroke MP Liz Beattie faces a challenge from Colleen Gibbs, an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, while Darebin councillor Timothy Laurence has nominated against Steve Herbert in Eltham. Andrew Lappos, who in the past has been associated with the Left, is listed as a challenger to the Right’s Telmo Languiller in Derrimut, but it was reported last week that Languiller’s preselection had been secured by the national executive.
• The preselection contest for Brunswick has taken on new significance with the news that Phil Cleary will contest the seat as an independent. Cleary defeated the Labor candidate in the federal seat of Wills in the 1992 by-election that followed Bob Hawke’s retirement and was narrowly re-elected in 1993, before losing to Labor’s Kelvin Thomson in 1996. He has more recently worked for the Electrical Trades Union, which under the leadership of Dean Mighell has disaffiliated with the ALP and given support to the Greens. Three candidates are listed for Labor preselection, each a colleague of outgoing member Carlo Carli in the Socialist Left: Jane Garrett, Slater and Gordon lawyer and former adviser to Steve Bracks; Enver Erdogan, 23-year-old Moreland councillor and staffer to House of Represenatatives Speaker Harry Jenkins, said to be aligned with the Kim Carr sub-faction; and Alice Pryor, also a Moreland councillor, aligned with the rival Left sub-faction associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. Former party state secretary Eric Locke has proved a non-starter; Andrew Landeryou reports he has withdrawn in favour of Garrett, who would appear to be the front-runner. According to David Rood of The Age, Garrett also has the backing of John Brumby.
• Andrew Landeryou further reports that National Union of Workers state secretary Antony Thow has been “elected unopposed” for the third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket. If that means what it appears to, it’s a significant story the mainstream media appears to have ignored, as Labor would seem very likely on current form to repeat its 2007 election feat of winning a third seat.
• The Moonee Valley Community News reports it is “not expected” that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will be opposed in the Labor preselection for Essendon, to which the party has assigned him so sitting member South Eastern Metropolitan MLC Bob Smith can be given a safer seat in Western Metropolitan. Mark Kennedy, a former mayor of Moonee Valley, was earlier reported to have ambitions to replace the retiring Judy Maddigan.
• Federal Liberal MP Chris Pearce has announced he will not seek re-election in his Melbourne seat of Aston. Pearce gave his party a morale-boosting by-election win in the seat in July 2001, limiting the Labor swing to 3.7 per cent – which has since stood as exhibit A in the case that the Howard government’s re-election the following November could not entirely be put down to the subsequent Tampa episode and September 11. He was closely associated throughout his time in politics with Peter Costello, and the fact and timing of his departure have inevitably been linked to Costello’s shock announcement early last week. No discussion yet that I’m aware of as to who might replace him. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that “another swathe of resignations” from federal Liberals is expected when New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised early next year, although no names are named.
• The ABC reports that three Western Australian state Labor MPs, headed by the factionally unaligned Alannah MacTiernan, have moved at state conference for preselection reforms allowing “compulsory secret ballots for preselections, with delegates completing their own papers”.
1,641 Comments
These polls are all uteful.
The Libs need to avoid Monty Burns leaders. Perhaps Bishop (the better Bishop) could take the helm. What about an Abbott/Bishop combo? That would give the cartoonists some fun.
Wow. Just wow.
When was the last time we saw anything that moved the polls quite like this? Tampa?
Nup. BB. Stay with the movies. The endings work, more or less.
I would have posted this in the SA thing. But.
If Nicole Cornes had the opportunity to stand again in Boothby or somewhere, she would rock in. Nicole would save the Libs in SA, if she could bear to do it.
She is truly talented, smart, and so.
Not to mention rather gorgeous to look at. Which does not count, of course.
Milne’s saying that journalists are apprehensive about email public servants after the AFP got involved in Utegate, and that – shock horror – a commentator was punished for being anti-Rudd. Poor diddums. He should have thought of that when he became one of the Libs’ most rampant yodellers, and accepted at face value peddled falsehoods spread deliberately to bring down the government on a tissue of lies. Did he really expect a mere inter-departmental inquiry? If that’s all Rudd had done Milne would have been screaming from the rooftops that Rudd had something to hide.
Poor darling, he’s just seen off his hero Costello, and now the new crush, Turnbull, is about to get the chop. Still fighting? Held his ground? I know it’s trite, but that Monty Ptyhon knight is the perfect metaphor for Turnbull over the past week.
The reason they think they can say anything, do anything, forge any lie, peddle any fake document, bring down a government on a technical matter of parliamentary procedure is that they still don’t get that they lost the last election. They seem to genuinely believe the public is on a knife’s edge waiting for a decent excuse to cover their mass desertion of Labor, and come running back to the Coalition. There’s years in this delusion for Labor if they play their cards right.
So I think that we can use the Newspoll figures released so far to deduce that when the full primaries are published we will get:
ALP 44, Lib 33, NP 4, Green 11 and Others 8
which means no increase for the minor parties despite all the mud being flung about.
Doubt was really about nothing much at all, but they all did it so well. Alien v. Predator – Resurrection was quite scary but ultimately forgettable in that “I’m still glad I saw it” sort of way. The wife nearly fled to bed two or three times, and it did look gorgeous on the Big Screen we have (as did Doubt).
All in all a good night’s entertainment with the icing on the cake after when I read the results of all three polls.
I’m still not sure whether I’m dreaming, though. Are they actually seriously thinking of putting Hockey in as leader? He’s a dill!
Newspoll shows a steady non-major party total but we are yet to see if there is any movement between Greens and ‘Other’ in either direction.
ACNielsen shows a 4% increase in combined Greens/Other with further break down yet to be released I think.
Galaxy shows a 1% increase in combined Greens/Other with further break down yet to be released I think.
This averages out to a 1.666% increase in the combined Greens/Other vote across the three polls. Well within the margin of error but overall it suggests that there has been a small – very small – move away from the major parties.
It’s a little bit disappointing to see a lack of serious challenges to clear out the deadwood in the Vic parliament. Several of the MPs targeted by Seitz really deserve to go, but are only being challenged by nonentities. One can only hope that the woman challenging hopeless fool Kosky might have a bit of luck, but alas I doubt it.
I think all the guff about Cleary in Brunswick is a bit of a beatup. He was well-known fifteen years ago, and he’s faded well out of the limelight since then. I doubt he’ll top five percent, most of which will be would-be Green primaries that’ll come back on preferences.
BB
Look at that polling – they simply cannot continue with Turnbull. Therefore they need someone else. Robb = Monty Burns, Abbott = his namesake: very religious + he puts off a lot of people, Costello has departed, Bishop had enough trouble getting support as treasury spokeperson let alone leader (but apart from that she could be okay), no way they can make a National the COALition leader in the current climate, Hockey therefore wins by default. Besides he does have some charactor.
Doubt it really, BB.
Would the Libs have the courage to ditch their only viable player?
I reckon they lack the guts to remove Malcolm, which gives them nowhere to go.
Now and into the next election.
And, I have to say, I have a perfect 8 in the footy tipping this weekend.
Once the ball of leadership speculation starts rolling the leader tends to go in the end (with plenty of exceptions though). Even if they stick with Turnbull at the next sitting, that is no guarantee that he won’t get the boot early in the new year etc. Don’t get me wrong, I prefer Turnbull to almost every Lib coz he comes across as somewhat moderate but don’t forget that he only narrowly won the leadership vote last time.
) has a lot assetts such as the green properties.
Politics is sometimes like any number of boardgames, for example Monopoly: once you are in a bad spot circumstances inevitably lead you to an even worse situation. Turnbull has the waterworks (and a rain-making machine like from the videoclip for the song ‘running up that hill’) but thats about it – for now Rudd has both Mayfair and Park Lane – and Brown, though on the verge of bankruptcy (
What the Liberal Party Room will be saying to Malcolm in light of the above 3 polls
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8SevqHN1UM
The nonsense pedaled by papers and Liberal hacks most of last week about the Liberals having a watertight case against Swan seems to have taken a nasty hit from the voters too, seeing few believe Grant got any preferential treatment.
[But the biggest problem for Mr Turnbull is the fall in voter satisfaction with the way he is doing is job -- from 44 per cent two weeks ago to just 25 per cent last weekend, while dissatisfaction rose 21 points to 58 per cent.
This is the single biggest fall in voter satisfaction for an opposition leader in Newspoll history and puts Mr Turnbull at the same low level as Kim Beazley and Dr Nelson when they lost their party's leadership to Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull respectively.
The Newspoll also showed that voters, by a ratio of 2:1, did not believe Brisbane car dealer John Grant received preferential treatment because of his friendship with the Prime Minister.
A total of 52 per cent of those surveyed said they did not believe Mr Turnbull's claims, while only 24 per cent said they thought they were true. Of Coalition supporters, 29 per cent said they did not think Mr Turnbull's claims were true].
gee, why cant u have a quiet good night sleep anymore.
The moral of the story is simple, the punters see bully with the fake email and then demand the pm to resign. Happy days ahead.
What is the point of letting Turnbull reshuffle the frontbench when there is no reason to even consider him a leader by any known definition?
I have to admit I never thought the poll reaction to the whole thing would be so significant. I think it’s hard to argue that the changes in Turnbull’s ratings are anything else.
It’ll certainly be tempting for many in the Coalition to start to look to a new leader. I get the feeling they won’t though.
Liberals will always poll worse under a Labor government.
Holy shit…
Holy shit. I don’t think there could be a worse set of numbers in one day for one person. Turnbull must be bloody glad that parliament is not sitting this week.
Re Pembroke election in Tasmania – Vanessa Goodwin is standing for the Liberals and has an excellent chance of getting in. This could be the end of the Bartlett Government.
Sorry to be OT William.
Ahh What a grand way to start the new week.
A big thank you to turnbull, hockey and co for making it so. Also to howard for making sure the libs next best prospect left politics.
The beauty about it all is that most of the damage was inflicted by the libs on themselves.
The bonus is the hacks at limited news are damned as well by their own poll results.
And our kevin comes out of it all smelling like a rose. He is on the front foot having outclassed the libs on the economy.
Libs go ahead and block any senate bills you like. Bring it on !
Cosssssie, please come back, all is forgiven. we want you, we need you and we love you.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/turnbull-hammered-by-voters-20090628-d1at.html
He would if he thought that they had a good chance at the next election.
News article notes of Turnbull that his figures were worse than Lathams,
“madder than Mark?”
This is really pathetic from Milne, if he can go anymore pathetic. What about the shameful act of having Steve Lewis on the show’s interviewing panel, not a single mention. I think the MSM overall should be ashamed of themselves over this episode.
They really do treat the punters with utter contempt.
Thanks God we dont have to rely on the letters to the editor anymore. Long Live Blogging.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25703955-33435,00.html
Like I said, Rudd was only identifying himself as the victim in Turnbulls email folly, nothing to do with ‘expectation management’. And we haven’t got the results of the AG/AFP investigation yet. Now THAT will be interesting
Tom.
Are you all ready for this?
I admit I was wrong. Turnbull indeed has stuffed up that bad.
There wasn’t a huge swing, it’s just back to the numbers that the parties were on prior to the real narrowing, but a swing is still a swing.
There – i admitted i was wrong – which is more than can be said for some others on here
Bob1234, nice bit of trolling.
What are the odds of the Libs replacing Turnbull with a new leader only to have to replace said new leader because the AG/AFP investigation implcates said new leader in illegal activities?
Tom.
Magic Nicholson cartoon http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/gallery/0,26637,5024287-20581,00.html#
No More Rudd on Rove Please
http://www.tvtonight.com.au/2009/06/no-more-rudd-on-rove-please.html
I’d have to agree. Save the over exposure please…
Of course the worst may yet be to come.
Who knows what the federal police will turn up or what GG has told them ??
Who else will be implicated…
I thought it would be max 58, ACNielson nearly made me wrong, Turnbull is still as popular as all their other options, he will survive. The only hope the Liberal party has is to select young moderates ( preferable not lawyers) for their safe seats. All of the current front bench are very unlikely to be ministers again. The sooner they face that reality and get on with it, the better for the party, and as the system works better with a viable opposition, the country.
The libs will replace turnbull with hockey. The gov will call a DD election for November after the ETS bill goes down. That will be my call. They will have to move quickly to replace turnbull to give Hockey the chance to pick up the outer suburbinite slob vote.
Well that was an interesting old week in politics
Hockey is the obvious next choice, although he is a lightweight (politically) and way too tied up in the AFP inquiry. Can the Libs wait and see which way that goes or do they change now and then have to change again before the election???
There is just no one there, they might as well stick with Turnbull and cop the loss.
Perhaps a moment from the Bard
“Caesar beware of Brutus; take heed of Cassius;come not near Casca;have an eye to Cinna;mark well Metellus Cimber;Decius Brutus loves thee not; thou hast wrong’d Caius Ligarius. There is but one mind in these men, and it is bent against Caesar. If thou beest not immortal, look about you. Security gives way to conspiracy” Julius Caesar Act 2, Scene 3
Donna R
centaur009
The ETS bill will go though and Labor will not have a DD trigger. Hockey’s popularity is equal with Turnbull’s, there is no advantage, and my money is on Hockey being mixed up with utegate. That leaves the mad monk, who is the only politician in the whole bunch, he might be capable of keeping his views to himself, but I am sure the Labor party would work hard at preventing that.
It looks like those who don’t sigh up to carbon reduction schemes will be facing trade barriers. Is that what the Greens and Liberals want for Australia?
http://johnquiggin.com/
I have no spur
To prick the sides of my intent, but only
Vaulting ambition, which o’erleaps itself,
And falls on th’ other …
(Macbeth 1 vii)
Ah, THE questions …
Will Malcolm, as is his wont, chuck a tan, pick up his bat and ball, mount his steed and ride off into the sunset?
If he doesn’t resign, will there be a Liberal leadership spill before the result of the AFP & Auditor General investigations?
Terms of reference appear to include any leaks during the current government’s term. I gather from Liberal reactions that no one is quite sure who’s in the clear. Nor does there seem to be a clear alternative. Hockey? But he rang Grech, so perhaps … The Bishop J and the Abbott, unelectable … Hunt, maybe, but not yet … Um, ah … Andrew Robb would love to be – almost as much as the ALP would love him to be … Does Judi Moylan have what it takes to lead the party through its next electoral defeat to its 2nd term in Opposition rebuilding?
Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow …
… It [was] a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
(Macbeth 5 v)
Ah I love Sweet William!
If the Libs do toss Turnbull it will leave them with a very difficult choice. Bishop is discredited and would be an easy meal for the Govt. Hockey, the “popular choice”, is really a lightweight. When has he ever demonstrated depth and rigour in examining and explaining important issues?
Never. All his answers revolve around food. Especially “growing the pie”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/27/2610326.htm?section=australia
“You know what, the only leadership I’m interested in is helping people to have a better quality of life, focussing on growing the pie, getting the economy …
So Milne is whining about not being favoured by Rudd?
What else did he expect? Why should Rudd give special favours to a journo so closely aligned with the conservatives?
I predict Abbott will put his hat into the ring if Turnball’s poll numbers don’t improve.
Rudd must be shaking in his boots at the prospect of going up against
“Mr People Skills”.
LOL
I knew that was gonna happen. Rudd wasn’t gonna benefit from this.
26 bob1234 – Good on you for admitting you were wr… wr…. wrong.
Come on Bob name names. Don’t shirk that one.
As I stated in the previous thread:
” vote1maxine
Posted Sunday, June 28, 2009 at 4:43 pm | Permalink
Will Turnbull’s dissatisfaction rating exceed satisfaction rating in the next Newspoll? I’m expecting it to significantly do so.”
Turnbull will survive the next 6 weeks. After that, it depends on what the AFP & A-G investigations conclude.
You’re joking right Bob?
Did his satisfaction raise like the 2pp did?
The rise in 2pp isn’t increased support for Rudd Labor, it’s decreased support for the Turnbull coalition. If the 2pp rise was pro Rudd and not anti Turnbull, you’d have seen an increase in Rudd’s satisfaction, but instead it went (slightly) backward.
Bob: with all due respect, how can one argue these polls are bad for Rudd?
Given the public interest, as per my comment on Richard Farmer story:
My preliminary view based on the AFP having so far decided to NOT charge Godwin Grech (meaning he is not the forger, if indeed the email is forged?), is:
The electorate are angry at being told their symbolic spouse, has breached faith, been unfaithful etc. The electorate “don’t believe it” as per Martin OShannasey of Newspoll on radio earlier today.
But that doesn’t mean the spouse is not having an affair. Affairs happen every day – just ask Mr Sanford.
The question is what the electorate will believe after the AFP fat lady sings, auditor general too.
And what are the stages of a ‘truth’ that dare not be spoken?
1. anger (the polls today)
2. denial
3. bargaining
4. acceptance.
Bring on the AFP charges for who did in fact send the Treasury email. ALP hack or not ALP hack? I wonder.
When did I say that?
The Libs need to forget ‘will make a good PM’ or electability as PM in the criteria for their next leader. They need someone who can put the party over personal ambition and put in the hard yards of rebuilding – finding new candidates, developing policies, creating a team.
So they should elect, um, must be someone, …
What’s the difference between Wayne Swan and Malcolm Turnbull?
Wayne doesn’t check his fax
Malcolm doesn’t check his facts ROFL
Bruised Turnbull plans frontbench shake-up
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2610832.htm
No, NO and who?
I surely can’t be the only person who can’t see the fuss in Andrew Robb at all. I still haven’t forgotten his dodgy list of Labor candidates who ‘may’ have not been eligible to stand for Parliament that he waved around during the last campaign.
44 – Bob you’re one for talking about MoE and it’s importance. How does a SLIGHT drop in Rudd’s high satisfaction rating have any real meaning whatsoever given MoE?
ABC radio headline this morning was weak, but typical. They’re reporting the Libs are angry over being smeared by Rudd.
Isn’t the seat in the upper house? How would this be the end of the Bartlett Government?
The fact that the 2PP goes up ~%3 but satisfaction drops, with the same pool of voters. MoE accounts for things like randomly getting more Liberal supporters on the phone than would be the case. But if the 2pp goes up and satisfaction goes down, it shows they are moving away from Turnbull, not moving toward Rudd. There is a difference.
Well I was going to make a comment about the ramifications these polls have for the ‘urgers’ in the media.
I was going to ask if maybe the repudiation by the public of the hysterical line the media and Mal ran a week ago has made the media sit up and take notice that the public doesn’t buy their negativity towards the ALP.
Perhaps there might be a more prudent and circumspect moderation in reporting and commenting in the future at least for a little while until the habit reasserts itself?
And then I saw Bill’s comment [#52] about ABC radio’s headline.
So it looks like business as usual.
Morning all and what a good morning it is. No wonder Kev was smiling yesterday morning – bet he had an inkling of the polls. He was so relaxed.
Grog and Crikey Whitey – your darn team gave me the miseries on Sat. arvo but all is forgiven. Today is a good day with Glenn Milne squirming. Fantastic.
Unusually High Support For Sotomayor:
62% Say She Should Be Confirmed
The Republicans have exactly the same problems as the Libs – no leadership, shackled to an unpopular far-right legacy, determined to fight “culture wars” they must lose.
Probably commented on earlier or in another thread, but the Nielson also shows 65% support for the CPRS and only 25% opposition. Interestingly for our Greens readers, 74% of Greens voters support the scheme.
Psephos – it sounds as though you will be right about the CPRS being passed by Libs.
65% in one of the polls say they will go with the Govt. line but I heard Robb on ABC this am saying that he’s not convinced. He say 95% of people don’t understand it so it is still rubbish and needs lots of amendments.
Of course he didn’t say what the amendments would be. He naturally doesn’t know.
54 bob1234 – What about the other two polls bob, do they backup this slight fall from grace for Rudd?
NASA has photographed Turnbull’s support base within the Liberal Party from space. You can see them all in this photo:
http://marsrovers.nasa.gov/gallery/press/spirit/20040106c/PIA04995_br.jpg
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/29jun-newspollimage.jpg
61 Socrates – LOL. Good one.
One of the problems modern day parties face (and perhaps olden day ones did, too, I’m not old enought to say) is that safe seats are ‘given’ to factional warriors who need to be rewarded for their party work but have the personal charm of warthogs and are thus unelectable in more marginal seats.
In the sunny days of romping big parliamentary margins, this makes for harmony within the ranks. Come the inevitable electoral wipe out, however, and the party is left trying to rebuild itself using charmless warthogs who have never really campaigned and thus have very little understanding of politics in the raw.
I’m being even handed here; it was one of the problems Labor faced in Opposition as well.
Anyway, the charmless warthogs are left in charge of the keys. They determine who the leader is. They have a big say in party preselections (and are attracted to the charmless warthog demographic – they can’t see anything wrong with it). They determine tactics in Parliament and often are in charge of ‘policy’ as well.
If the Liberals (as I confidently predict) lose more seats at the next election, it is likely that their parliamentary representatives will consist of people such as Mirabella, Bronnie Bishop and Abbott, whose ideology blinds them to the needs and concerns of real people.
Good post by Possum with more nifty graphs. Any Liberal reading it would need to have a Bex and a good lie-down after.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/29/malcolm-turnbull-a-ute-full-of-pain/comment-page-1/#comment-13655
62 bob1234 – Now, Bob, you could have just answered “no”.
Gary, if you’re not going to understand what i’m saying, which is that the swing is anti-Turnbull rather than pro-Rudd, then there’s no point continuing this discussion.
Naturellement.
It’s never a good look to tell the voters how ignorant and stupid they are. Andrew, democracy comes from two Greek words “demos” the people and “kratein” to rule. The people rule, get it?
Rudd’s in such a strong position, he won’t have to give them much.
All jokes aside GB, IMO things will get better from here. There will be a few hickups from month to month as some bad economic news results come out. For example, in August / September a lot of companies will announce annual results that are losses. But by the end of the year employment will be starting to pick up. Sydney is a risk but Adelaide is already good, and the rest are doing not great but OK.
Bob – you claim there is a difference between and anti-malco swing and a pro-rudd one.
Ok, maybe there is. But does it have any practical application? It’s a two horse race…
The Liberals saying other peopel are ignorant about climate change is a bit like them giving us a lecture on document control.
2pp went up 3.
Rudd satisfaction went up 1, Turnbull satisfaction went down 19.
It’s obvious the reason for the 2pp drop is Turnbull and not Rudd.
It seems the newspaper line being quoted was due to the fact Rudd went down 3% for ‘likeable’ and up 4% for ‘arrogant’ (to 51%, a majority? wow……..)
No, Bob, that’s not the case. Rudd has increased personal approval ratings (67% in Nielsen). The voters actively like and approve of Rudd, not just accept him as the least worst alternative.
It sure does. Howard led in the polls because of an anti-ALP leader vibe, not a pro-Howard vibe. So you get what happens when someone like Rudd comes along as opposition leader – you get a massive shift from voters who were unhappy with both leaders and wanted to swap their support but couldn’t face doing so.
Is there a sheet for ACNielsen like there is Newspoll?
The fact that 51% say Rudd is arrogant is rather interesting…
Also, the Greens need to stop preening themselves on their own rectitude and listen to the voice of the people on the CPRS. Vox populi vox dei, Bob.
Rudd’s from an already high level. You are really splitting hairs here bob.
Not really. Politicians in general are not popular. Besides when you’re comparing that to 68% for Turnbull it doesn’t seem so bad.
All PMs are arrogant, it goes with the territory. What’s wrong with arrogant anyway?
Bob, you made a typo in that one – you wrote ‘understand’ when you meant ‘agree with’.
Well done for admitting that, it’s more than most on here can say
Interesting but not significant given that he is very popular.
I’m sure it will come as a surprise to people, but Piers Akerman has backed Turnbull’s call for a judicial inquiry into ‘ute-gate’ or ‘mate-gate’ as he calls it.
Name names bob. Come on, you can do it.
Brown or me?
I’m indifferent on Greens support for the CPRS. I reckon they’re doing what they think is noble and trying to extract maximum concessions on it, and right up till the last minute say they wont vote for it unless they get what they want, but in the end vote for it anyway – the Senate is often a game of poker.
Maybe Labor and the Greens both want a higher-targetted CPRS but know they can’t do it with Senate numbers so they’ll orchestrate two failed bills, get a DD, then a Labor-Green Senate majority, and redo the bill from scratch
I try to stay away from personal attacks. Sometimes i slip, but I do generally try not to go personal.
Me too bob, that’s why I object to these statements that contain the words “most people here ….” or “some people here ….” then finish with some derisive comment about them.
Bob – I think most people understand that a little arrogance is a good thing as a PM.
He has to cope with all types, local and international. If one was a bit short on the self confidence/arrogance aspect it would be difficult to cope with the job.
I reckon we cut him that bit of slack and also his angry bit so long as it is not over the top like Turnbulls.
Turnbull’s past is not all that glorious when you break it down and it is all due to his personality. Unfortunate for him but fortunate for Kev and his supporters.
Greetings all – I’ve not posted for some time (mainly because I could never remember my log-in details), and it’s good to see many of the old faces still at large on this site.
As regards to these polls, in actuality they are the same as pretty much every poll has been since December, 2006 – ie Labor miles ahead. The most interesting thing about these partcular polls is the collapse in MT’s personal support – last week may well have been the time when people made up their minds about MT, and once the voters have done that, they don’t often change.
It’s been commented by myself and others that the Libs have not yet accepted the 2007 election defeat – that it was all just an “over-correction”, and once they make the voters see what a mistake they made, then all will be well and the Libs will return to the Treasury benches. Trouble is, voters don’t like being told they are wrong. This was what Labor did in the first part of the Howard years, and it wasn’t until Rudd came along that the ALP accepted that, well, people didn’t hate Howard like they did.
It will take another election loss (or two) for reality to sink in, so I’d say we’ll see more of the same tactics-wise from the Libs over the next few years.
I meant Bob Brown, but if you’re a Green Bob, you can take it as well.
No, I don’t think the CPRS bill is a tactic to sucker Turnbull into a DD. I think Rudd wants this bill passed this year so he can go to Copenhagen with some credibility to argue for higher targets. And I think Turnbull, privately, agrees that it’s in the national interest for that to happen. His trouble is that he can’t carry his party with him, let alone the Nats. Nevertheless he will cave, telling his party that they can’t risk a DD at which they would be smashed.
And what if the people are wrong?
This won’t do the Labor Party much harm either. Promoted properly, it could see a further jump in Labor’s popularity in coming polls.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25704938-5013404,00.html
As they quite often are. Parties should ignore it but do so at their own peril. If they can’t convince their voters of the benefits of opposing/supporting something they need to be willing to wear the consequences.
Surely the Government wouldn’t be as stupid to implement policy based on opinion polls and focus groups.
What kind of wacky world would that be.
If the people are wrong they will wear the consequences of their wrongness. But in practice, they’re not wrong very often.
Psephos, everyone knows that getting legislation passed has nothing to do with getting a good outcome Copenhagen and if anything, it can be a negative to getting a strong global deal.
Leave the spin to Penny, she’s a bit better at it.
Mr Turnbull said he had met with the AFP as well as giving a statement but had “not been interviewed”. It is understood the police made contact late Friday afternoon and he met them on Saturday. The deputy Liberal leader in the Senate, Eric Abetz, spoke with police on Friday. This is Gratton in the Age link http://www.theage.com.au/national/turnbull-denies-link-to-creation-of-fake-email-20090628-d1aj.html . The police “made contact” with Turnbull late Friday afternoon and he met with the Police on saturday.He gave them a “full” statment.Turnbull later told Channel 10 that he was giving “full co-operation “.Gratton then writes, Mr Turnbull said he had met with the AFP as well as giving a statement but had “not been interviewed”. These are her inverted commas in the last sentence. I wonder did he refused to be interviewed .
Why have you become so obsessively nasty recently, Oz?
The nation, its states & Councils are controlled by a symbiotic relationship between politicians and politics (with the help of the PS etc). The answers to political questions, big and small, are political responses – except for a few overriding events/ crises, like natural disasters and events like Port Arthur massacre, E Timor & the Bali bombing.
I’m sure CPRS will pass the Seante pretty much as is – with a possible non-core concession or two to the Liberals, who want few things less than a DD. I’m sure all the tax bills will pass the Senate … ditto. It’s in the Opposition’s best interest to rebuild some of its electoral support to minimise the next election’s damage. It’s in the Government’s best interests to limit the damage the Greens and Indes might cause in the Senate.
Minimising the Greens would play a role (probably next in importance to avoiding a DD) in Turnbull’s offer to negotiate with Rudd; its primary reasons to limit Green power by moderating (if possible) rather than strengthening CC legislation; its secondary to minimise voter and preference drift to the Greens from the major parties.
Either major party in government will have to deal with (a) climate change and (b) the Greens. Mainstreaming a major issue is always the best way of limiting the power of special interest parties. Mainstreaming CC is the best way to limit the Greens. Australian parliaments have successfully either seen off most break-away and special interest parties, or melded them into major parties/ coalitions (ALP and various conservative/ Lib-Country/Nat Coalitions).
Oz, the problem with using ‘everyone knows’ is that it’s usually obvious that not ‘everyone’ agrees.
A leader with a low arrogance rating would be skating on thin ice, likewise leader with a high arrogance rating. They would want to have exceptional other characteristics. Arrogance is not neccessarily a bad thing unless it is coupled with untrustworthiness, then it is devestating. Ask Malcolm.
Hugo – join the list of people who can never remember their log in bits.
I learnt my lesson a couple of years ago and now write them all in a book. The next step is to remember what goes with what. Life’s cruel sometimes. lol
And ain’t Malcolm finding that out today. Serves him right for landing poor sick Grech in the mire and then making out he knew nothing about it. Turnbull deserved a rotten poll.
The Coalition is “firm” on their position on the ETS:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2611060.htm?section=justin
Andrew Robb has documentary evidence the scheme is flawed.
Was it leaked? Is it real?
Why is Newspoll out a day early? Assume they knew Neilsen would publish today, and did not want to miss out on the coverage.
TP
I’d certainly watch out if the coalition tried to drag Ian Plimmer into a Senate committee to give evidence on climate change. Or Steven “man of reason” Fielding
Well I predicted that MT might have used his post-Costello political capital to force a DD and take the inevitable hit sooner, rather than later.
I’d like to withdraw.
MT is obviously too risk-adverse to run with that.
TP
- He talked about having their own modelling done this a.m so you are right – every time the Libs do something we can ask “is it real”. What info did they put into it, who provided the money, etc. The poor devils are stuck with that phrase forever.
I loved Vera’s piece the other from Barcelona News where they reported the fake emil story and had a go at the Murdoch press for promoting it. Has Rupert done something to someone in Spain.
Malcolm gambled everything before he had put in the proper foundations of trustworthiness and approval. Mal this is what happens when you don’t spend time on foundataions – this aparment block in Shanghai yesterday that just ‘decided’ to literally fall over.
http://eng.wcetv.com/1/2009/06/28/201s15712.htm
Sheehan has gone back to form – labor is a pack of hyena’s attacking poor old Malcolm.
Never mind he inflicted this all on himself and his party.
But I do like the bit towards the end – shown below – although I’m not reading it in the context sheehan intended.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/a-hyena-pack-hunts-in-canberra-20090628-d17a.html?page=-1
A hyena pack hunts in Canberra
[
A hyena pack hunts in Canberra
* Paul Sheehan
* June 29, 2009
f
Illustration: Michael Mucci
Wildlife programs on TV are wholesome, but they are often heavily censored, especially those depicting life on the plains of Africa. The editing always draws a veil at gruesome moments, such as when a pack of hyenas have brought down their prey. Hyenas don't wait for their food to be dead.
They start to rip and tear while there is still life and movement, before the eyes of their prey glaze and natural opiates puts the animal into numbed shock. It is nature's in-built protection for violent death.
We got the uncensored equivalent live on TV last week, when our federal leaders descended on their prey, eyes gleaming, bloodlust in the air, red meat on the floor. There were five men operating as a pack - Kevin Rudd, Anthony Albanese, Lindsay Tanner, Tony Burke, Chris Bowen - with an intent to leave a shredded political carcass on Capital Hill.
The attack was foreshadowed in Parliament two weeks ago, on June 17, when the Minister for Agriculture, Tony Burke, rose to speak about the Leader of the Opposition, Malcolm Turnbull, and his past association with Axiom Forest Resources.
"The company engaged in logging in the Solomon Islands in the 1990s, at the time that [Turnbull] was both its chairman and a shareholder,” Burke said, paraphrasing an AusAID report. “The impact from the destruction of the resource was such that, instead of it being done in a sustainable way, it was essentially shot to pieces.
“It was also revealed in March 2007 that the chairman bought in at $200,000 and sold out one year later for $25 million. That is not a bad story for the Leader of the Opposition but a pretty shocking story for the residents of that island in the Solomon Islands.”
The real attack, the death hunt, began in Parliament last Monday, led by the Prime Minister.
“The member for Wentworth [Turnbull] is no longer fit to occupy the office of Leader of the Opposition … no longer tenable … his fingerprints [are] all over the promotion of this fake email … he sought to threaten Dr Charlton from my office,” Rudd said.
Inevitably, there followed numerous snapping lunges from the Government’s chief enforcer, Albanese, the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport.
“[Turnbull] has form. During the legal action related to the Costigan royal commission [in 1984] … the judge condemned Turnbull’s tactics, saying … he had ‘managed effectively to poison the fountain of justice’ … [and] ‘an abuse of legal process’ …” Albanese said.
“He has been exposed as a grubby opportunist who will do any thing to get into office, just as he would do anything to knock off Peter King, a sitting member from the Liberal Party, just as he would do anything to destroy people in the ARM [Australian Republican Movement]. What a success that was!”
Tanner, the Minister for Finance, took the next bite: “This is not the first time he [Turnbull] has behaved like a grubby opportunist … I remind everybody in the House of his involvement with the HIH disaster. In 1997, along with Rodney Adler, he explored the prospect of buying HIH and decided that it was not a good purchase.
“He was paid $1.5 million to help FAI find a buyer. He advised FAI not to get an independent valuation of its assets. He wrote to Goldman Sachs, his employers in New York, on 7 September, 1998, saying that the true net value of the assets of FAI was about $20 million. It was then later sold to HIH, partly on his advice, for $295 million. That played a central role in the collapse of HIH and we all know the misery that caused …”
Burke added: “If you want to find a story about deals for mates … look back at the time [Turnbull] served as a minister in the previous government… A company named the Australian Rain Corporation … . sought money and the National Water Commission [which] … recommended that the [minister] provide them with $2 million for a trial …
“He wrote to the prime minister seeking a lazy $10 million for the Australian Rain Corporation … This is where we discover that an executive of the corporation happened to be a next-door neighbour of [Turnbull]. The same person, the same neighbour, was a member of his electorate fund-raising committee, the Wentworth Forum … .
Bowen, the Minister for Financial Services, said: “He [Turnbull] has been shown to be a shallow man… a man who has sold out on all semblance of credibility … . he has made himself a weapon and a tool of smear and innuendo … ”
Tanner: “Malcolm Turnbull has taken a large campaign donation from an American billionaire closely linked to the predatory lending practices that triggered the sub-prime lending crisis …
“Peter Briger, chairman and director of controversial ‘vulture company’, Fortress Investment Group, contributed $US50,000 – or $76,000 – to the Liberal campaign fund for the Opposition Leader’s seat of Wentworth last year.”
Albanese: “I understand that the member for Wentworth knows a dead cat when he sees one… I could have sworn I was witnessing the ghost of Mark Latham. It was all there: the jaw jutting out, all the fake aggression, all the machismo … ”
Burke: “I am aware of potential threats to Jasper the cat, living at the Lodge. I do put the Leader of the Opposition on notice; if anything happens to Jasper the cat, questions will be asked.”
By the time they had trawled through Turnbull’s past, the Opposition Leader was portrayed, under the privilege of Parliament, as a treacherous, bullying, smearing, opportunistic, justice-poisoning, forest-stripping, tax-avoiding, profiteering, cat-abusing loser.
I had thought all this was being warehoused for the next election. But no, they want him dead now. ]
No. Labor wants him for the next election. Wrong again sheehan.
BH said “I think most people understand that a little arrogance is a good thing as a PM.”
There’s a difference between “self-belief”, without which few would achieve anything, and “arrogance”.
“Arrogance” is often a construct (ie a word “we compose of words which we have a concept of” http://www.update.uu.se/~fbendz/philo/words.htm ) people like to throw at intelligent, successful, highly effective, confident, well prepared people they dislike or envy – although there are people so sublimely blind to anything other than their own ego, who truly earn the term (eg Louis XV of France).
“Arrogance” is one of those constructs one needs to justify, in case it is perceived as saying more about the user than the person against whom it is used.
In OzPolitics, the arrogant SM Bruce of the 1920s would successfully reinvent himself in the 1930s. Menzies as PM 1939-41 was usually described, especially by his own party, as “arrogant”. The same term is rarely applied to same man’s as PM 1949-66. In both cases, “arrogant” was well earned; so was its disappearance after each’s “Fall”. Both remained “self-confident” without reverting to arrogance, because each learned his lesson well. In that, there are lessons to be learned both by politicians and those who deem them arrogant.
One of the great funny asides in this mornings coverage of the poll results came from the Sky News female political reporter, a person seriously out of her depth in that role. She insisted all morning that the mad monk Abbott came through last weeks pathetic display by the Opposition strongly and handled his temp role, in Pynes absence, in a strong and forceful way. She also implied Abbott would feature in any Turnbull front bench shakeup as he is a ’strong and forceful’ performer!!!!! Abbott was one of Howards jack boot wearing front row, dirt, gutter tactics were the order of the day from the minute Rudd took over the Labor leadership. These days he has taken on the appearance of an escapee from a wax museum, with a frozen jaw. He is a sly, sneaky wimpish type who attempts to give the impression of a saint in waiting. He has form people, merely cast your memory back to 2007. he was a member of the Coalition dirty tricks team led by Minchin. There wasn’t a candidate for sainthood among them.
Turnbull’s starting to remind me slightly of El Cid.
For the youngsters among youse our there who didn’t see the film, or the history illiterates, El Cid was a Spanish historical figure who, after he died, had his dead body strapped onto his horse to frighten the other side into surrendering. Turnbull’s saddled up, but whether he’ll frighten anything but his own side is another matter.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_cid
We all know he won’t shut up. He’ll want to try again, in a vain attempt to prove he was always right. Admitting error is not in his makeup. In fact it doesn’t seem to be in the Coalition’s make up lately. They think they can run any line at all – e.g. “The fake email is Swan’s fault because it came from Treasury” – and get the public to accept it. No-one knows this more than Malcolm Turnbull himself, so I think he’ll up stumps and leave them all to squabble over the scraps Rudd leaves them to chew on.
Joe Hockey is actually one of the worst offenders at the outrageous pronouncement that’s meant to be taken seriously, so why they’re thinking of putting him up for Leader, heaven knows. It’s a cast iron admission they have no-one left. They’re still mired in the past trying to prove they were right all along, way back from Howard’s time. History, in their minds, is a process whereby the story is written by them and then rewritten by them to prove they were always right. The public grows bored with this after a while.
For Labor’s part, Albo’s citation of Latham was brilliant in that it put the Ghost Of Mark Latham to rest, at last. It was Labor’s final admission that they got it terribly wrong in putting Latho up for PM. This can only go down well with the electorate, right or wrong (Latham did have some good points). But the RW commentators and many of the bloggers couldn’t understand it. They were full of condemnation about it. They thought it was hypocrisy on Labor’s part to admit a mistake. It was actually very, very good sense, introduced at exactly the right time.
But the Coalition’s biggest mistake, born of the Divine Right To Rule they assume is theirs and theirs only, is the thought that they could knock off an entire government with a silver bullet, much less a faked one. Until they realise there’s no silver bullet, and that they need to do the hard yards, first of clearing out the deadwood from Howard’s time, and then of the development of a policy platform that actually recognizes what the public at large wants (and not just the Ackerlytes’ wet dreams) they’re there in opposition for a long time. I couldn’t be happier for them to maintain the delusion that Rudd is Humpty Dumpty just waiting to topple off the wall, but that’s just me.
But back to Turnbull… Turnbull has the reputation of being a sticker, but I think even he will realise the game’s up and that being PM is just a bridge too far for him. Far from being sacked, I would not be surprised if Turnbull walked. He can’t get any discipline happening, can’t even organise a simple vote or minor policy position without dissent. He can disappear to Tuscany or wherever and convince himself that the bad dream never happened, like Costello seems to have finally done. The cold sweats will stop after a while and Rainmaker can enjoy his millions in peace. He’s a barrister, and they know full well you can’t win them all. You couldn’t be a barrister and survive otherwise. They have to be able to go off to an expensive dinner at the Rock Pool in clear conscience (or perhaps without conscience is a better way of putting it) while their client enjoys his first night of spooning porridge and keeping a wall behind him always. Further, barristers have to have the gall to send a large bill for losing the case. After all, life goes on.
So, BB’s prediction, you read it here first: Turnbull to resign and then leave politics, before the next election.
I just had a look at a piece in the OO re Rudd and I reckon one comment sums up the MSM perfectly with their inability to put Rudd into their own little box.
Looks like Piers was right on the money with his brilliant column yesterday.
Even Bolt has said “Just a couple of weeks after Peter Costello says he’ll quit, Malcolm Turnbull is finished, too. “
Sounds like a load of rot to me…
ltep
He’s finished politically. His approval ratings show that. Just look at SA where the exact same thing happened to MHS. There’s no way he will quit and I’m not sure his party will force him out because of the lack of a viable successor, except Cossie who must be having a good laugh ATM.
When ever I slice an article by Piers, all I get is heaps of congealed fat and loads of stinky gases.
eewww
Nice description of Hockey from Pies’ blog:
Keep bashing, Basher.
The latest page also contains this wonderful couplet of ripostes from Pies:
The “Me Generation” would presumably include “senior Liberal Party sources” quoted widely today, those who know there’s no gain without pain, who say Turnbull’s toast?
He gave these instructions after he was dead?
Why do Sky bother with these polls lol
Last week
Who do you believe on utegate
Rudd 29
Turnbull 71
(or there abouts)
Todays poll
Who do you prefer as leader of Libs
Turnbull 37
Abbott 10
Hockey 21
Oother 32
I’ll have $10 on Other
This week, Turnbull has revealed himself as a bad politician, but his self-confidence and his bully-boy style is perfect for party back room brawling and number crunching.
While he can’t bully the voters, you watch him make certain his own survival – this is what Turnbull is really good at.
You can bet that Mr Turnbull does not fail. Any way you look at this, Turnbull will stay as leader – he will ensure it. He’s no Dr Nelson – he’s no locum.
Can’t agree. Turnbull knows the game’s up. He’ll fall on his sword, making brave noises about “the good of the party” and leave for Tuscany.
Pedant.
It is funny to reflect on MT’s big gamble.
His best case scenario:
PM: Gillard
Treasurer: Tanner
Diogenes, my ‘load of rot’ comment was directed at BH’s post right above yours.
Re Kit at 119 on Malcolm Turnbull being a bad politican.
The next times the libs consider a member for Wentworth for leader, they should consider the track record ain’t too good. John Hewson was also a bad politician.
Bushfire Bill @110
One of your best!
These polls are clearly telling the Libs to get rid of Turnbull.
However, the Libs are facing Hobson’s choice dilemma. Do they change their leader now in the wake of these frightening poll figures or do they wait until the outcome of the AFP and AG investigations?
Allowing Turnbull to struggle on like a wounded elephant might buy them some time However, the continued alienation of the electorate could see their core voter support under threat. On the other hand, passing over to the next in line carries risks as well. (Inexperience, no credibility, how to energise a dispirited party etc). Of course the Libs have the added worry that whomever they choose could become further implicated in the various investigations which would be even more disastrous.
Given this is the Party of people incapable of making a decison about Howard’s future and who have also managed to throttle the really credible leadership alternative of Peter Costello, then it’s likely they’ll assume the foetal position and start calling out for their “mummy” before making any decison.
SA have decided to beat the rush:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25705810-2702,00.html
I think predicitons of Turnbull’s demise are a bit premature.
The newspoll 2PP was 58/42 throughout April.
This one is 56/44 -
Things looking grim for Turnbull, Abbott is said he is safe.
Turnbull safe despite polls: Abbott
http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?ATL://1246232317097§ion=latest&title=Turnbull+safe+despite+polls%3a+Abbott
Turnbull won’t recover. More people that were giving him the benefit of the doubt will now gradually move away. Nothing succeeds like success and Rudd Labors success is a meme people will be attracted to just as the meme of Turnbull Coallition failure under attack meme can become ingrained.
I think that Cleary should run in Wills not Brunswick because the demographics are better for him in the northern half of the electorate.
Oops
People thinking you are a bit of nerd, nong or weirdo is one thing but people not trusting you is fatal, it means your messages will always be filtered through scepticism.
If the Libs do decide to give Turnbull the flick (or if he goes of is own volition) they have a very difficult situation – who could bring it up to the Government in Parliament and to the voters at election time?
Looking at the Opposition’s front bench there is a pretty sorry sight.
Turnbull – obviously in a lot of trouble
Bishop – no threat and she’s somewhat already yesterday’s woman
Truss – an easy target (e.g. regional rorts)
Robb – has a low profile and would not command interest from the electorate – although he is an experienced tactician
Hockey – a mile wide and an inch deep – populism only goes so far
Hunt – still has his training wheels on (and he has an irritating voice like Pyne)
Pyne – has a very high annoyance factor
Cobb, Keenan, Stone, Ciobo – no recognition factor at the moment
Outer Shadow Ministry – nothing much there either
So what do they do?
I’m sure the Libs will be ecstatic at their progress! The fact that their leader has taken such a huge knock in popularity will be even more lovely for them.
In the Australian polity, you just don’t recover from that.
Trubbell at Mill, I believe that howard won two elections (2001 and 2004) after the “mean and tricky” assessment.
How long before the Nats pull out of the Coalition?
138
The Nats pulling out of the Coalition would be complicated by the LNP.
They won’t.
Barnaby Joyce – leader of the opposition
ltep,
The Nats already dislike Turnbull. Why should they sacrifice their brand to stay associated with the Libs atm. In the Senate, they could probably achieve more for their constituency by voting independantly of the Libs.
I would be interested in your counter arguments.
They’ve become far too complacent and lazy after years of having to do nothing much at all.
As far as the Senate goes, I imagine Barnaby will make sure the Nats do what they please.
There will be rumblings from certain Libs (Heffernan, Schultz etc.) to end the Coalition deal but it will end in nothing happening.
The only time I can imagine something changing would be if Joyce makes the move to the lower house.
9/11 & Latham may have helped. He was the ‘mean and tricky’ they knew.
As others have mentioned a lack of credible Labor leader and a bit of a scare campaign allowed Howard to win those 2 elections. May have been different in 2004 if Rudd had been ready to challenge for leadership then.
Squig, you’d have a go at selling ice to the Eskimos I reckon.
Conceded, TP, but my point was that, with the right circumstances, a polly can recover from an assessment by the public of dodginess. And I didn’t even mention the ‘non-core promise’
Howard and Menzies learnt from their mistakes to come back in triumph. Turnbull has the raw talent to do this but does he have the determination to accept the humiliations that lie ahead?
Kit: [Trubbell at Mill, I believe that howard won two elections (2001 and 2004) after the “mean and tricky” assessment.]
Yes, but that wasn’t an assessment of Howard. If you remember, Howard leaked Stone’s memo precisely because it had been worded, with the rodent’s connivance, to finger Costello as being the ‘mean and tricky’ one.
Kit I don’t think Howard did recover from that “mean and tricky” perception.
I think the voters knew he would go too far one day and they were just waiting for a chance to belt him – it took Labor leadership change and the right strategy to get him on workchoices and a few other things.
Howard is still considered to be mean and tricky, even by people who voted for him. He will never lose that.
Geoff Robinson, my point exactly, I think that Turnbull is fueled by his belief in his own ability to counter and destroy any attempt at his humiliation. This sort of environment (when his back is against the wall) is what makes him thrive.
Sorry Squiggly but you’re starting to sound like a drowning man now.
Dare I say shades of Shanahan and Preferred PM debate? That feather dance didn’t seem to draw many wolf whistles either…
Dave @ 108
Sheehan has it wrong again, of course. It isn’t hyenas going after Turnball, it’s vultures.
Peter Sandman 2004 Conference Transcript -Boston College Center for Corporate Citizenship Conference http://www.bcccc.net/index.cfm?fuseaction=page.viewPage&PageID=979
In this speech, Sandman (of ‘Risk = Hazard + Outrage’ fame) discusses why being loved may not bring any benefit, and may have a downside, but being hated is a real cost, and has no upside. He is, of course, talking about corporations, but it could just as easily be applied to politicians.
Good point, but Howard still won two elections. And, over time, I reckon Turnbull will be able to turn that sort of perception around, while Howard’s actions and manner only confirmed it.
Move on, Turnbull is finished, so says His Master’s voice.
http://www.thepunch.com.au/
Dont laugh, this is serious:
http://todaysfacilitymanager.com/facilityblog/uploaded_images/2989bw-787944.jpg
Thansk GB, nice to be known for something
Nelson, Crean, & Beazley were all moved on after a prolonged period of poor satisfaction/PPM scores.
That hasn’t happend to MT yet. I’d need to see today’s numbers sustained before thinking he is on his way out.
I think an added problem with Turnbull is that he also comes over too aggressive with a hint of violence. Nobody ever saw Howard that way. He was clever and tricky accountant. Or as one lady here said of him at the time…he is just a nice old man.
Diog I wish someone would ask Piers next time he is on insiders about how much todays polls reflect his comments yesterday….I cant believe this bloke is actually employed as a commentator. My cat would have interpreted last weeks events more accurately than he.
Turnbull will survive because Hockey can see the writing on the wall for the next election, and wont challenge. The best outcome for Labor is a damaged Turnbull stays. Of course, the next round of polls will no doubt be heralded as a major comeback for Turnbull as he is coming off such a low base with these polls.
I have heard Turnbull interviewed a no of times about the fake email and his whole defence has been that the senate commitee testimony swayed him. No one seems to have asked his opinion of Grech’s major qualifications such as “I could be totally false”, ie. he was indicating a significant degree of hesitancy and doubt. How sweet though that Turnbull’s mole has inflicted such damage on him. Karma
PBs hit Crickey’s front web page, no wonder they lap up PB posts.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/06/29/newspoll-56-44-acnielsen-58-42-galaxy-56-44/
The voters will stick even with a PM they don’t much like if there is no acceptable alternative. Snedden, Peacock, Howard (1st time), Crean, Latham, Hewson, Nelson, – not acceptable alternatives. Whitlam in 72, Hawke in 83, Howard in 96, Rudd in 07 – acceptable alternatives to PMs who were not much liked. Rudd is genuinely popular and respected, and Turnbull has no hope at all against him.
Hope Turnbull stays. The cartoonists are only just beginning to explore the dead cat angle.
And for the record Shanahan’s headline about Turnbull being SMASHED by the polls was more foreful that The Age’s. I wonder whether he cried into his tea as he wrote that or someone else had to write it for him??
The idea that Turnbull should stay on until the AFP and AG investigations are finalised might be a good one if they are not sure who could be in the deep stuff over it. And it is just possible some of it could be very deep.
Turnbull will stay unless the AFP investigation reveals talks between Godwin Grech and Turnbull. As I’ve said before, if it turns out that Grech showed Turnbull the email, then Turnbull is toast because Grech said he didn’t have the email in Senate estimates and Turnbull would have known that not to be true.
Kit – Turnbull is supposed to be leading the party of business but he has, in the past few months, annoyed businesses in many ways.
How embarrassing that he thought it necessary to lecture at a breakfast meeting recently about not taking his side in the CC debate.
He not only has enemies within his party – they are throughout the business community too. Car dealers, commercial property developers, exporters (his China rubbish was woeful), Banks, etc. etc.
He’s gawn even if he contests the next election as leader
Had the Senate been enlarged to 14 per state, in one go, at the 1984 election then Garret would have become a Senator in 1985.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/1984/1984senatensw.txt
Maybe Bob posts on Ackermans web site, he has said Turnbull will survive,I Piers have said so,backed up but some of the silliest reply’s I have every read,you lot though the US had a advantage in nutters I think your wrong, Ackerman has the worlds best conspiracy theorists.
In celebration of the unprecedented release of three polls we have a competition!
Who wrote:
TP107
Thanks for that photo of the Shanghai collapse. At least engineers cna point to things collapsing when they don’t have input. Unlike the economists
Musrum, Machiavelli
BH 165
Agreed. I have said several times that different Libeal policy stances would harm business and I can’t see why they would possibly fund their next election campaign.
Hey, William. My post @ 92 is still in moderation. It’s only a quote which I feel would add to the discussion and would be throwing all the numbering out.
Kit: Correct! Here you go: :cookie:
I’m sure he’s very grateful now that he didn’t.
cookie emotions need to be imagined…
Socrates – agree about the funding for Libs. If Turnbull underwrites a lot of the campaign would that show up in donation list if it is paid by a Trust.
emotions == emoticons
Surely the current chaos of the libs is not only repetitive political history but also the real specific legacy of Howard “the nice old man” or dare I hope a sign of the true long term malaise of this band of opportunists who couldn’t face up to supporting a Costello leadership coup …too late now..or is it??
(haven’t been around for awhile as I’m getting more entertainment these days from Mafia Wars on Facebook; a d*** addictive game LOL)
Had to chime in today with a YIPEEE when I saw the poll results, Malcolm doesn’t have a clue at all …… and I missed KR on Rove last night too, was his piece any good? Saw story about Bruno this morning vis a vis Rudd and raised a bit of an eyebrow at that, Bruno is one weird dude ……
Juliem
Welcome back – we have certainly missed you!
yes welcome back julie. rudd as his usual dorky self- no major damage in the interview. And you know Bruno is a character dont you??
It’s all here Julie
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QggLtP2yUkI
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25706369-5006301,00.html
Mmm charming.
will assume that is a youtube bit about bruno or something? guessing I don’t want to look at it LOL …..
Juliem – you missed the most interesting week ever here. These guys were brilliant and had the email declared fake by early Friday evening. Their analysis left the MSM in its wake.
A truly entertaining week on PB and today’s polls top it off. Better than any other game played I can tell you.
Forgot to mention Juliem – you would be pleased that the bill passed through the Senate for dishing repayments by refugees. Thank goodness.
Little by little Labor will bring the public along to realise that asylum seekers are not the scum of the earth but we Ozzies can be slow learners in trying to protect our WASP way of life.
If Rudd can stay in power for another term then Howard’s terrible legacy may be erased completely.
BH @ 184, I’ve followed every bit on the news believe you me
…. was thinking a fair few of our Lib regulars probably are checking themselves into the doctor for ulcer and heartburn checkups 
No, aside from politics though, if you’ve a FB account, go check it out (Mafia Wars) ….. you won’t regret it, at least you will have had a look
…. I can tell you I would like to send my M-16’s and Humvee tanks into the Liberal party room 
{if I could}
So what happened with Grocery Watch?
If it can’t be done then how come Choice and the retailers now http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2610866.htm
both want to do it?
Did the government need Collies to co-operate?
Were they so threatened by it? Do they need ignorance to make a profit?
Ah, juliem! Relieved to see you back again. Have been considering asking if anyone knew where you’d got to. I even checked back for your last post (15th June, I think).
Keeping up over the last couple of weeks has been mammoth effort! I never did catch up on a dozen or so pages that appeared while I was in a meeting. That said, your insights would have been a welcome addition.
Andrew 158:
If you think of Pies, not as a commentator, but what he really is – a Liberal shill, there to push an anti-Labor, pro-Liberal argument, his counter-intuitive, hairy-chested views make perfect sense.
Juliem – I’m on dialup – in the country, up hill and down dale. No chance of checking out Mafia Wars altho I would like to and join you in driving the Humvees to Lib HQ.
Will get my kids to look at it and relay the info.
Swannies turn to win next week so I ain’t saying good luck with your team.
I just wonder why the MSM and the Liberal party can even entertain the idea that Turnbull could ever be Opp leader let alone PM as his history’ such as the HIH debarcle and the $10m Rainmaker grant, along the list previously listed on this thread. A grant to a neigbour and fund raiser for Turnbull himself, which his company donated $10,000 to the relection of Turnbull.This is much worse and not in the same league as the $20m grant to Howard’s brother’s business, as that money at least went to the workers, otherwise they would have been jobless and cashless, which made it very hard for the ALP to attack.
From the Liberals Twitter Feed
Don’t forget mannildra, the bio-fuel mob – grant money for major lib donor – and mate of howard.
Its different of course – mates only applies to labor
An updated summary of current events. Very funny.
http://bekk.blogspot.com/2009/06/utegate-as-told-by-lolcats.html
“I think predicitons of Turnbull’s demise are a bit premature.”
If Turnbull had a record of sticking to something for the long haul, he might reinvent himself as Bruce, Menzies and Howard did; but he hasn’t.
From a wealthy background, Bruce, who served in WW I, was 46 when he lost the PMship; Bob Menzies, whose family had produced several Victorian MHRs (including his father) and an MP, and was 47 when he lost the PMship. His roles during WW II (well canvassed in a recent ABC film) and his respect for Curtin (who consulted him) undoubtedly prepared him to form and lead the Liberal Party. Turnbull will be 55 in October. Wealthy, pugnacious, achieving too much success and fame too fast, he has, so far, lacked the steadying influences of Bruce’s war service and Menzies’ was roles. His performance throughout Utegate, inc shirtfronting Charlton at the Ball and over-riding party-room qualms, is all too typical.
Australians have a much discussed reputation for dismissing governments rather than electing Oppositions. Assuming the ALP holds government for at least three terms (Fraser served 3; since 1932, only Whitlam’s government served less – 2 terms), Turnbull, even if he does manage to reinvent himself, will be c63 before he gets a real chance – and then only if the government is badly on the nose.
Of the government’s cabinet and ministry, only Swan (no PMerial ambitions) seemed vulnerable, yet his only slip was one 2min phonecall. Grech’s role in targeting him – especially by sending the faxes to his home, then leaking their existence – will effectively shield & steady him. After all, Grech’s sting was just that; a sting that went wrong, a very unfair “go” of the sort Aussies hate! The rising ALP stars (Gillard, Combet, Shorten, Roxon etc) have reputations for brilliance, level-headed tenacity, thoroughness – and winning – so are unlikely to make the sort of mistakes that cost government.
The last two governments have lasted 13 years (H-K) and almost 12 (JH) In 12 years time, a whole new generation will be waiting in the wings. If Malcolm runs true to form, he won’t contest the next election, tho he might already have resigned his seat before it.
The Australian on-line poll has an interesting result for my electorate.
Costello and Abbott are running neck and neck on 40%,
Hickey on 20%,
And Dutton and Turnbull haven’t even got any votes. “Could” indicate that away from the metropolitan electorates that Turnbull doesn’t rate and probably never has rated with voters from both major parties. IMO.
For the national figures, Costello rating at 43% and Turnbull at a wopping 24%. This poll is probably, for the first time, fairly indicative of the public opinion. IMO
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Excellent satirical piece by Ad Astra here. Covers everything, very funny.
http://www.thepoliticalsword.com/post/2009/06/29/Done28099t-blame-me.aspx
In this morning’s ‘Tiser, A Downer has written his weekly column, headlined “WIll the real PM please stand up”. In this column he write
Anyone who cares to read the conclusions of the commissioner can do so. There’s a whole sectioncalled “The knowledge of the Commonwealth”.
Page after detailed pagerepudiated every claim of lying Mr Rudd had levelled against the then prime minister, ministrs (including me) and the officers of the Department of Foreign Affairs.
Yet Mr Rudd had for months accused us of lying to Parliament perjuring ourselves before a royal commission and “not reading cables” (something I did assiduously as every officer in the department knew).
After the royal commission report was tabled in the Parliament, I assumed Mr Rudd would admit he had been wrong – or resign- for making totally false yet very serious allegations against ministers…..”
I can’t find any internet link to this article – does any PB have one?
It’s interesting to juxtaposition these reactions with Possum’s latest article in Crikey.
Downer wants to revist AWB …ha, what a dope. $300m bribes to a murderous dictator and he wants to remind people how incompetent he and the Howard govt were and how dirty they all seemed?
Go for it Dolly, let us bring it all back and, maybe another Royal Commission where PS don’t have to be worried about what they say.
BH, have actually atm tipped my blokes to come through … not quite sure why, but I’m going on my gut instincts as I got 8 last week so am flying atm ….. the 16 in my HS tipping comp, I was the only one getting 8 last week, heaps of 6’s, one 5 and 3 1’s. The 1’s must have been Libs
Tony Abbott putting on a brave face;
“When you’ve had a tough week you get bad polls. Labor threw everything bar the kitchen sink at us last week, but Malcolm Turnbull has not flinched and the party has not flinched.”
I’m sure he’d rather have been dining on crushed glass with a sprig of razor blade than having to say this.
So where’s Glen and GP? Missing in action?
Let’s all rub it in to Glen, that at the height of Utegate, he said Rudd’s Preferred PM would drop 20 percentage points. But instead, Turnbull’s dissatisfaction has gone up 20 points. Karma
Julian @ 200, reason Malcolm didn’t flinch is because no one is standing behind him to push him off the edge of the plank – YET
bob1234, mate, glen and gp are off to the doc getting their ulcers attended to
It is dawning, on the minds of Libs in marginal electorates, that Malcolm can only lead them to a train wreck election defeat.
They are looking for a leader who can deliver the “least bad” election result.
People Skills is busy on the phone I hear.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25707194-29277,00.html
GG [An updated summary of current events. Very funny.
http://bekk.blogspot.com/2009/06/utegate-as-told-by-lolcats.html
Thanks GG, that is absolutely CLASSIC! Especially love the interjecting poodle and the Hockey heavyweight rottweiler!
GG 193 KTHX for the link. Best laugh around here since SBC on Rove (which was the best since Albo’s Mark Latham effort on QT). Uz gud kat!
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbulls-support-plummets-in-new-polls-20090629-d1f5.html
HAH, everyone knows Abbott hates the fact he’s been demoted. What utter comedy gold.
scorpio @ 195
The Australian on-line poll has an interesting result for my electorate.
Costello and Abbott are running neck and neck on 40% …
I filled in the poll, which didn’t have a “none of the above”, so I figured Cossie was the most mischievous choice! My electorate has very few Oz buyers (or on-line readers) and it likes only Cossie and Sloppy Joe.
Abbott’s 9-1 for Lib leader at the next federal election at Sportingbet, in from 34-1 on 1 April 2008 when I placed $20 on him; and 11-1 at Centrebet, in from 26-1 on Feb 11 2009 when I placed $60 on him (he wasn’t even listed in the field back in Feb, the bet was placed on “any other candidate”).
The real trumpet blowing will begin soon enough (that’s if Abbott gets the job and holds it until the next poll, niether of which are certain).
C’mon Monk Man, you know I need my bathroom renovated!
Excluding some of Malcolm Turnbull’s less attractive qualities, his terminal arrogance, his bullying, his condescension which tells us how lucky Oz is to have a man like him. His ability to concoct a story and to repeat it word-for-word to his hapless audience, his total self-belief that he was pre-ordained by God for any job he takes on. His ability to lie. Once, he was being interviewed by the ABC re a comment made by the then leader of the Libs. Someone handed him the wrong story and he was telling everyone belabouring the rightness of the story. Suddenly he was handed the real story. He did not miss a beat. He switched to the opposite tack without missing a breath.
However, what is it which distinguishes Malcolm Turnbull from other Liberal leaders? Take away his character traits and he becomes just another mirror image of all the other Liberal leaders.
The Libs are dying on their feet. Cut from the same cloth the Peter Costellos, Alexander Downers, John Howards, Malcolm Turnbulls of the Liberal Party assure the voters ‘more of the same’. They have become irrelevant. Just like the Liberal Party of Victoria. How could anyone vote for a faction riven party led by the amiable but not too bright Ted Baillieu?
It might be fair to suggest the conservative parties are lost in a time warp and the public doesn’t seem to too fussed about finding them.
I’ve whacked Essential Report up:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/29/essential-report-ozcar-fallout-edition/
It’s up for Labor as well.
Maybe a solution for the Liberals would be to split into two? One small l liberal party that would be attractive to many Labor voters, and one Conservative party that would be supported by rusted on Liberals.
No more party disunity, more choice for real liberal voters.
Downer, Costello, Howard and Turnbull cut from the same cloth? Do you have even the faintest knowledge of their family backgrounds? You really should inform yourself before saying such silly things.
The Democratic Liberal Party does have a certain ring to it…
Particularly its acronym. Back to the future!
The Liberal Democrats and the Conservative party of Australia.
At least the Rabble had one week where leadership speculation was off the agenda.
174
So he enjoys giving his permission to various projects like the pulp mill, uranium mines, and the various nutty water schemes of the Victorian state government and having too publicly disagree with most of his progressive views then?
Tomtfab
Any Environment Minister has to make decisions based on the law. If he fails to do this his decision will be appealed to the Courts.
AG wrote:
The wool perhaps came from different sheep. The cloth came from the same tedious, yarn-spinning factory.
The Libs routinely ooze “We’re the best. We’re the natural rulers. Everybody knows it. Why don’t the public just admit it?” and so on etc.
Once when Hawke said “Labor are the natural government of Australia” it caused a furore. No-one from his side in Federal politics has said it publicly since or even hinted at it. The Liberals are constantly on about it. They need to get over it or else they’ll be in opposition for years to come.
… and sauce bottles. I wonder when that’ll come up next?
Amazing how the commentators are mostly saying, “This is a Rudd we never knew.” They don’t get it at all. He won’t fit in their box.
Some recommendation! Two interesting points here, though.
Why would the electorate be impressed by this. “driven by his beliefs, not opinion polls.” His “beliefs” have been soundly rejected by the public through having their say in opinion polls. They also have rejected the Coalition as a whole going by the polls.
How “authentic” is a Leader (with a philosophical vein) who is driving his “beliefs” which are being soundly rejected by the electorate as reflected in the opinion polls. Multitudes of them!
How “authentic” is a Leader who uses forged documents (”not” authentic for those who are intellectually challenged) to try and bring down the country’s Prime Minister, Treasurer and hence the Government.
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/turnbulls-support-plummets-in-new-polls-20090629-d1f5.html
What is Malcolm’s “philosophical vein” – I deserve to be PM?
“Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has been criticised by West Australian Labor for pulling out of the party’s State Conference in Perth.
Mr Rudd was to be the keynote speaker at this weekend’s conference but cancelled earlier this week, citing a clash in schedules” ABC online
I guess making a total dick of yourself on Rove is more important when you’re a show pony?
JoelB1 – just think how much money Kev saved us by not flying to WA.
225 – Good one Joel. Enjoy opposition for a long time friend.
Joel B1
Go back to your room you petulant child.
I see you avatar is a billy goat. It was the billy goats gruff who were locked in battle with a troll. Maybe you should change your avatar to a troll.
Over the last 25 years, Labor has been the natural party of state government. Over that time, Labor has been in Power:
W.A. 16 years
S.A 15 years
Vic 18 years
N.S.W. 17.5
Tas 14 years
QLD 18 years.
Plus the first ever Labor government in N.T. starting in 2001, and just over half of the years of ACT self government have been Labor controlled.
Yes, especially if it is the W.A. Labor party.
Oops my apologies, that should be “a no-show pony”
LOL now that’s funny!!!
Abbott whinging to all and sundry that his man had the kitchen sink thrown at him needs to be reminded of one thing – Turnbull started it. The school bully has met his match (and then some). HTFU Turnbull or leave the playground.
Musrum @ 214 wrote:
“No more party disunity, more choice for real liberal voters.
The Democratic Liberal Party does have a certain ring to it…”
Like The Democratic Labor Party?
It does. These days, it’s called the religious right wing of the NSW Liberal party, and equivalents federally and in other states/territories. And it’s been very effective at keeping out of office the party it claims as its own.
How about “The Genuinely “l”iberal Liberal Party? You know, the party of Casey and Hasluck, Holt and Gorton, Fraser (probably even peacock).
Hilarious Joel B1.
@228 Steve K
“Joel B1
Go back to your room you petulant child.”
Ohhhh, I’m crying now, boo hoo…
You’re not a Rudd staffer/twitterer are you?
You know, the ones who gushed about Rudd on Rove, “I’ve got lot more respect [for Rudd]”
Or was this you “Sauce bottle joke – awesome! ‘Not often enough”?
That’s class!
Joel B1 you’re not Christopher Pyne are you?
You know, the one who gushed about Turnbull …
B1
While there are probably grounds to deny viewers of Rove the ability to cast a vote, they do vote.
They will now mostly vote for St Kev – that is why he appeared on the show.
@236 entre…
I know you’re a genuine Labor supporter because you “misdirect” every minor criticism of Rudd back to “but you’re one too!”
PS anyone brave enough to talk about Gillard? Esp. now she’s out of the country? I know I feel safer.
Which is a better move than appearing in front of the Party Faithfull at a State Conference.
Which is why Rudd successfully targetted the youth vote by appearing on Rove and FM Radio. The Libs still believe it is 1955 Australia and react accordingly
@237 ruawake,
but not if they live in WA and used to vote Labor.
JoelB1 – my teenage grandkids thought it was great and they will be first time voters in 2010.
Both happy with what they saw and heard. Lucky Kev – another conquest.
@239, FC,
I thought Howard pioneered FM radio? He’s often criticised for it.
Actually since elected PM, Rudd has been to WA more times than Turnbull has had successful hits at the Government
@241 BH, god help us.
I thought the Greens were bad wanting to lower the voting age to 16yo.
Let me guess, Kev wants to give foetuses the vote?
#238 as opposed to a ‘fake’ Labor supporter. How apropos of you!
Considering that the band you link to in your name is targetting that demographic, maybe it is a case of Pot meeting kettle.
The members for Stirling and Cowan are probably contemplating their future.
Don’t be cheeky Joel – my 19 yr old g/kids are intelligent, respectful of their elders and earning money while studying. They are also loads of fun. What more could Kev want for this country.
Actually Joel, I like the cut of your jib. It’s good to have some dissenting voices. Its easy to post on a site which mirrors your own convictions but you should be encouraged for posting here given that your ilk seem to be in the minority.
I though I would have a look at the depth of the liberal team.
I have combined the latest AC Nielsen:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=5.3&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1.5
With the opinions of Andrew Elder:
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2009/05/bonfire-of-dead-wood-and-i-just-hope.html
To derive the team list for Liberal Shadow Cabinet 2010.
Keep
* Hockey, The Hon Joe, Member for North Sydney
* Hunt, The Hon Greg, Member for Flinders
* Irons, Mr Steve, Member for Swan
* Ley, The Hon Sussan, Member for Farrer
* Moylan, The Hon Judi, Member for Pearce
* Robb, The Hon Andrew, Member for Goldstein
* Washer, Dr Mal, Member for Moore
Keep, Benefit of the doubt.
* Robert, Mr Stuart, Member for Fadden
* Marino, Ms Nola, Member for Forrest
Very Faint Praise
* Morrison, Mr Scott, Member for Cook
Dump
* Abbott, The Hon Tony, Member for Warringah
* Andrews, The Hon Kevin, Member for Menzies
* Bishop, The Hon Bronwyn, Member for Mackellar
* Bishop, The Hon Julie, Member for Curtin
* Briggs, Mr Jamie, Member for Mayo
* Ciobo, Mr Steven, Member for Moncrieff
* Haase, Mr Barry, Member for Kalgoorlie
* Hawke, Mr Alex, Member for Mitchell
* Hawker, The Hon David, Member for Wannon
* Jensen, Dr Dennis, Member for Tangney
* Macfarlane, The Hon Ian, Member for Groom
* May, Mrs Margaret, Member for McPherson
* Mirabella, Mrs Sophie, Member for Indi
* Ruddock, The Hon Philip, Member for Berowra
* Secker, Mr Patrick, Member for Barker
* Smith, The Hon Tony, Member for Casey
* Stone, The Hon Dr Sharman, Member for Murray
* Tuckey, The Hon Wilson, Member for O’Connor
Lost seat (58% TPP)
* Broadbent, Mr Russell, Member for McMillan
* Markus, Mrs Louise, Member for Greenway
* Ramsey, Mr Rowan, Member for Grey
* Randall, Mr Don, Member for Canning
* Schultz, Mr Alby, Member for Hume
* Gash, Mrs Joanna, Member for Gilmore
* Billson, The Hon Bruce, Member for Dunkley
* Turnbull, The Hon Malcolm, Member for Wentworth
* Johnson, Mr Michael, Member for Ryan
* Slipper, The Hon Peter, Member for Fisher
* Somlyay, The Hon Alexander, Member for Fairfax
* Southcott, Dr Andrew, Member for Boothby
* Vaile, The Hon Danna, Member for Hughes
* Baldwin, The Hon Bob, Member for Paterson
* Pyne, The Hon Christopher, Member for Sturt
* Simpkins, Mr Luke, Member for Cowan
* Keenan, Mr Michael, Member for Stirling
* Farmer, The Hon Pat, Member for Macarthur
* Wood, Mr Jason, Member for La Trobe
* Lindsay, The Hon Peter, Member for Herbert
* Dutton, The Hon Peter, Member for Dickson
* Laming, Mr Andrew, Member for Bowman
* Bailey, The Hon Fran, Member for McEwen
Retiring
* Nelson, The Hon Dr Brendan, Member for Bradfield
* Costello, The Hon Peter, Member for Higgins
* Georgiou, Mr Petro, Member for Kooyong
* Pearce, The Hon Chris, Member for Aston
This would leave the team captain (Joe) with the most marginal seat.
Have I missed anyone who is retiring?
ABC Sydney radio 6pm news headline:
Lovely.
And after a terrific day of watching David Spiers face fall further to the floor (he looks like he’s lost a million bucks while talking about the polls) I’m off to get dinner and bother my other half to open a bottle.
Joel B1,
Take a little time out and read this form the ABC On-line. And read the comments too, then come back to us and with a straight face repeat your previous statements.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2610903.htm
Note also that if it was a News Ltd blog there’d be an hour’s delay and then the post wouldn’t be published. Learn a lesson, Joel, about freedom of speech.
Slow it down a bit…
For you guys it’s one-on-one for me it’s one-on-four or so..
@253 FC, sorry you’re wrong F. That band is “well old” and at their last gig the zimmer frames were out.
@255 BH, nothing personal, but lets face it, would you want 19yo’s running the country? Why do you think the Greens want to lower the voting age?
@256 en, Thanks I like your jib too…
227
The environment minister seems to be taking a very pro-state Labor (and their nutty projects) view of a lot of these projects. If this is because of the law then the law needs changing.
@261 BB
I’m not News Ltd, on my blog BB you’ld not only be published but thanked for having an opinion and bothering to post it…
What’s News got to do with it? more “misdirection”?
@260 S,
I think Kev twitting prior to Rove “How do I get out of this guys? says it all.
Go to the WA conference you were booked into Kev, you utter publicity tart!
??Joel, who said anything about 19 year olds running the country?
BH is just saying they’re going to vote for the first time at the next election.
Are you anti democracy or something?
I heard he invented the Electric Telegraph too (he’s old enough), but I won’t criticise him for it.
Getting out of going out of Rove by going to a stupid W.A. party conference would be gutless.
As opposed to “Honest John” who did his best to ingrain himself with the Cricket Fraternity at every opportunity, as well as every other major sport
OK Joel, that’s enough. You got your 5 minutes of attention. Bye, bye.
LOL, I am watching the channel 7 news in Sydney and they interviewed a number Liberal MP’s who have all said that Turnbull will still be leading the Party.
Turnbull is sooo gone, it’s as if his funeral – was like- yesterday.
Musrum @ 257
Not a good look!
Musrum
Interesting post. Hawker has announced he won’t be re nominating
And a virtual box of chocolates to the first to pick who my Gravatar is.
Evening, earthlings. My, what a day of polling treats, and I must say from Tony Abbott’s early complaints on AM that the poor polling for Malcolm was all due to the nasty ALP smearing, it’s just got more weird. That complaint caused the coffee out the nostrils reaction. Who would have thought that Kevin Rudd might be one tough nut capable of mounting an extremely competent political campaign? Oh wait, is this the Kevin Rudd who steered Labor to victory since becoming Leader? The Kevin Rudd, who in facing a global financial crisis, has headed a very focussed and disciplined government, that thus far, on the evidence, seems to be making the right policy moves to cushion our economy? The Kevin Rudd that the MSM deride as a nerd or boring or trying too hard to be blokey, whose netsat ratings continue to be amazing?
That Kevin Rudd, Joel B1?
Don’t know if this was posted previously or not, I just heard about it for the first time several hours ago
…. Good on you, Pete 
Frank @ 246
Seeing you raise the LNP 1950’s picket fence idyll (especially around a cricket ground of course), this week’s quiz (or one of them) :
In this shot of the 1955 annual citizenship convention at the Albert Hall (original with our names weren’t we?), it says under the shot that two embryonic PM’s were there – Harold Holt and Gough Whitlam. Holt is easy to pick, but your mission, should you accept, is to find Gough:
http://www.naa.gov.au/whats-on/online/showcases/albert-hall/shaping.aspx
Joel B1,
Just for you buddy. Look at this and weep!
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/files/2009/06/turnapprov.png
This is allegedly what K Rudd ate at Rove last night:
http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/large/14536528.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=0ZRYP5X5F6FSMBCCSE82&Expires=1246264561&Signature=Ee%2Bt43QHuOXqrn1Ho8YJ0KuyHvM%3D
Scorpio @ 278
It looks like the rot started to set in during January. Any idea what it might have been?
Musrum @ 257
Steve Irons would be “lost seat” as well, as Swan is notionally Labor.
BK,
1.Everyone had been on holiday for a month (Absence made the heart grow fonder with regards to Turnbull) so the voters were feeling generous.
2. Rudd’s article on neo Liberalism messed with the Liberal minds and they haven’t worked it out yet.
3. Inauguration of Obama.
BK,
It looks to be fairly dramatic from the 12th of January which is in the quiet period, ie holiday time.
So much has happened that I would have difficulty pinning it down.
Maybe Possum could help?
Did anyone hear Kev say last night that THE hairdryer didn’t exist? It was a concocted story.
Gough, second gent, front on the left!
Abbott was whining that Labor threw everything but the kitchen sink at Turnbull last week. Obviously the Libs see Julia Gillard as the kitchen sink. She’s coming at you soon, Tony. Be afraid, very afraid.
Joel,
Five Words.
Julie Bishop Godd News Week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1l58Mja25nU
This says it all… from the Tele’s “Bruno” coverage:
Jeez, compare this to attending the WA Labor Conference to field questions about the rights of the CFMEU and/or going on Insiders to get a bashing about Parliamentary misrepresentation and there’s really no contest, is there?
Holy hell! This is from Channel 9:
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/3461/turnbull.jpg
It seems to show Turnbull even losing at Tetris.
To quote Lance Corporal Jack Jones, “They don’t like it up ‘em!”
Shows On,
I think I will print that one out and frame it. lol
ru,
There is certainly a whiff of “Don’t panic!” about the Libs at the moment.
Just wait till the kitchen sink ala Julia arrives back. Pass the popcorn!
Oh and the weather was stormy, cold and wet as well, which is why I didn’t even go and I’m a Party Member
Thanks. So that leaves six keepers.
This is a bit serious. Looks like fairfax were a bit piqued at missing out on the action.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/fairfax-sorry-over-gillard-trip-alert-20090629-d2br.html
I just looked up Goerge Bush’s worst approval and disapproval ratings.
Turnbull actually has a lower approval rating (24%) than Bush ever had. Turnbull still could reach the stratospheric disapproval rating of 71% if he keeps going. He’s 60% but a good narcissistic rage could see him reach the heights of GWB.
Dio,
That’s the most disparaging thing said about Turnbull so far!
To quote Koutsoukis about comments he recieved from St Kev.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/labors-losing-battle/2006/11/25/1164341443336.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Suck the sauce bottle Jason.
I thought that was established fairly quickly after the event, but conveniently ignored by MSM.
Some promising signs over the weekend on the trail to Copenhagen. If I’m not mistaken as to the glimpses I had of the news:
1. Gordon Brown committing to +2 degrees C maximum – a la Sir Nick Stern.
2. Obama garnering some more support at home among the Dems for his temporary (I hope) targets.
3. Wong endorsing Brown’s statement.
This will lead to the pressure increasing on the LNP, Greens, and Fielding to pass the ETS legislation in August.
The last vestiges of resistance should now be gone, even though the Greens may well keep up the pressure for as long as possible for better targets (nothing wrong with that). But I can’t see anyone voting it down at the death but idiot Fielding and a few idiot Nationals who might cross the floor.
Scopio
With the slicked back black hair? Are you sure?
Judging by the Rove performance, (I could smell his minders rubbing their hands with glee at the shrieks & cheers) Rudd will go as early as he can. If Turnbull is still leader, the coalition will loose 10+ seats , if he isn’t they’ll loose 20+….watch Sharman & the Right play the race card, while the far right “Independents” fall in line for places on Senate tickets.
I didn’t believe it at first either, but it is.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gough_whitlam
What are you referring to?
If Turnbull thinks he had a bad week, last week. Just wait – worse is to come.
jv,
Got to giggle with the Greens acolytes such as yourself pretending they have anything to do with what is going on with ETS. The Government has done all the heavy lifting and the Greens have made themselves irrelevant.
Bob Brown and the merry inconsequentials are a laughing stock.
scorpio “Gough, second gent, front on the left!”
Yep, 2nd row between the first row’s 3rd & 4th women from the left.
Psephos @ 303
& Polyquats
I’m still not sure it’s Gough. The hair of that chap isn’t wavy.
You might know Psephos. Is it Gough second chap from the left in this Pic? Doesn’t look like him to me, but the archives say he’s in there somewhere. it’s important – another virtual Coopers is at stake.
http://www.naa.gov.au/whats-on/online/showcases/albert-hall/shaping.aspx
Here’s a headline worth keeping for a couple of weeks.
The Liberal Party risks being labelled weak and pathetic if it replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader on the back of poor opinion polls, a Coalition frontbencher says.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/29/2611796.htm
Well what a lovely set of numbers …
As uttered by the Flight Centre Captain – aka Christopher Pyne
From Malcolm Farnsworth Twitter:
GG – well the “coalition frontbencher” is Chris Pyne, so keeping that for a couple of weeks may be about how long that part stays current as well!
Coaching witnesses?
Whitlam is up the back. If you drop a vertical line 7cm from centre of the coat of arms on the side of the building you will see him.
Dunno Psephos – everyone in that photo looks like my Grandfather.
hmm, maybe not tall enough either. If the women are spouses, might it be easier to look for Margaret?
But Andrew, he is your “shadowy” Treasury official.
Under a Labor Government there will always be more Opposition Leaders.
A sure sign that they know that GG is going to spill his guts and possible has the evidence to support his story.
Still no Glen or GP! It can’t just be coincidence… they’ve gotta be avoiding PB!
Diog, i saw an earlier post where someone was trying to steal your crown and admitting that he was wRONg.
Surely, you are going to give up so easily. Even Turnbull knows how to fight.
It really pi$$es me off how everyone uses Machiavelli as a lazy ignorant euphemism for nasty politics. He was ruthless and calculating but that is a good thing as long as it’s tempered by good qualities, of which Niccolo had many. He was highly principled and wanted good government.
From the Mad Monk;
I assure you that is Gough up the back of the photo. I have enlarged and circled him here:
http://www.adam-carr.net/gough.bmp
They’ve been replaced by JoelB1
Still looks like my Gandpa! (Was it illegal in the 1950s to look different to anyone else???)
GG @ 308, if memory serves that was the very same reason that saw Brendan Nelson exiting the leadership role ….. if that reason was enough to boot Nelson, it ought to also be good enough to boot Malcolm
No missing Holt though.
Decoded: “Last week we make a really stupid mistake, falsely accusing Kevin Rudd of corruption and lying to Parliament, and he ruthlessly exposed us the bungling smear-merchants we are, and now we’re really embarrassed and don’t know what to do.”
ROTFK. Nearly spat my corn chips up against the wall.
He is a respected senior public servant when talks of alleged emails and favours for Grant that cause damage to the govt, he is a shadowy Treasury figure when said emails turn out to be faked and cause damage to the opposition.
Grog, maybe Gough IS your granpda.
The 1950s was a decade that placed a premium on conformity. Don’t forget most of these men spent five years in uniform.
If any of youse wonder why I misspell so many words it’s because I’m too cheap to replace my keyboard which has had, in turns, coffee (twice), wine and cat’s pi$$ spilled all over it.
Some of the keys stick.
When I save up $15, I’ll buy a new one.
castle,
I’m sure Godwin will be well respected by the Libs right up to the moment he spills his guts and implicates the Liberal hierarchy in is nefarious leaking.
The crucifiction of Grech’s integrity will be a morality tale for all to behold.
So Kev is ruthless, quick acting, calculating, organised and calm in a crisis and the opposition are portraying this as something wrong?
The born to rule Liberal party having grown used to bending the rules, abusing position and power so much, would have had trouble distinguishing between proper and improper conduct being out of power. Having a reckless and aggressive man as shadow Treasurer and then Leader would have encouraged them to push the limits even further.
It is quite easy to imagine that one or more of the group (we can imagine some) would have gone a little more than just a little over the line. In fact having a Treasury official(s) as insiders also makes you privy to certain beneficial financial information.
Another habit hard to break for this group is thinking they have the ‘right’ to push public servants around and demand things and threaten if people prove reticent. However out of power such behavior can be illegal.
It wouldn’t be too hard to imagine the sort of trouble such people could have gotten themselves into.
Just out of interest, does anyone know the record for the number of Opposition leaders in a single term?
Are we counting Costello?
Whereas John Howard was St Francis of Assisi, who loved animals and small children (though not in the Michael Jackson way), and always forgave his enemies their mistakes and never *dreamed* of exploiting them for political purposes, like by ruthlessly wedging them with the voters and calling them soft on terrorism or anything underhanded like that. Also he *never* falsely claimed to have pictures of children being thrown overboard, or that he had intelligence proving that Iraq had WMD when they didn’t. He would *never* do anything like that. Not ever.
Psephos wrote:
Grog, maybe Gough IS your granpda.
The 1950s was a decade that placed a premium on conformity. Don’t forget most of these men spent five years in uniform.
It’s called Brylcreem (?spelling)
Bryl-creem, a little dab’ll do ya,
Use more, only if you dare,
But watch out,
The gals will all pursue ya,–
They’ll love to put their fingers through your hair.
Bryl-creem, a little dab’ll do ya,
Bryl-creem, you’ll look so debonair.
Bryl-creem, the gals will all pursue ya,
They’ll love to RUN their fingers through your hair.
The Wiki picture of Gough is probably earlier (when wavy hair was IN) but the height, hairline, pixi ears and cheekbones are unmistakable.
castle,
It’s all driven by polls. The Libs have a huge problem with women. Women don’t like aggressive bullying men. So the meme begins that Rudd is too pushy is a direct appeal to women.
Unfortunately, Abbott is the wrong person to be promulgating this response. Bishop or some half competent woman on the Libs side needs to be entrusted with communicating this message.
The only reason Abbott is good for women is that he has been used as a doormat by successive women Labor frontbenchers.
GG @ 305
Wrong, again. As I’ve said before, I support the emissions legislation being passed, even if it isn’t toughened up. I was giving some credit where some credit is due, and it was refreshing to see Penny Wong saying something more positive than usual, even if it was just following on from Gordon Brown.
The main thing is, despite the governments delay until after the election, from where we now find ourselves, don’t we all want a successful Copenhagen meeting, with targets at least in line with Stern?
Not yet
Sorry Psephos, cross-post. Didn’t take long to find him with your earlier instruction, even if all monitors are not the same size.
I think it’s three.
1993-96: Hewson, Downer, Howard
2001-04: Beazley, Crean, Latham (although Beazley quit straight after the election)
2004-07: Latham, Beazley, Rudd
Psephos
You get the virtual Coopers tonight. That’s Gough. Well done. No Margaret though.
ozpol,
We can do better than mere words. Some of our PBers weren’t born when the best ads were produced.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRcRIbExrfg
And then the rest of their lives in a civilian one (grey flannel suit…)
Whenever Abbott mentions Bonheoffer you know he’s hurting inside.
What about Rudd and Brendan doing a double act on the news, don’t know what the story was but they were kneeling down with a group of kids smiling and Kev had his hand on Brendan’s shoulder like as though he was his bestest mate. Is Brendan about to switch back from the dark side do you think?
And here is the ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLjq86SXvSk
jv,
I have been re edumacated.
You’ve always been a supporter of Labor’s emission plan as have the Greens.
Is that the only photo in history that does not feature Gough as the centre of everyone’s attention?
Geee Keating the Musical was a let down at the end trust some latte sipping labourite left wing writer to have Keating beat Howard in the 1996 election…
Thank god that fool didnt get a second term, Keating almost makes Rudd look good.
Quite frankly the people have gone off Turnbull in a big way and he’s never really had them any way…
Who cares about looking weak when you’re 55-45+ behind in the polls forget that, face it we are already weak!
We need another leader and soon but im not sure who?
Glen,
I never agree with you, but you’ve got courage. Good on you!
And at least it’s not liquid courage
Vera @ 348
He’s retiring at the next election. Kev’s probably offering him a job (hasn’t offered JH one yet!)
You only just saw it? Wow…
Keating did get a second term… 1993-1996
Keating did more reform in the Australian economy than all the Liberal Party PMs put together, it’s just a shame that as an economic liberal, you either can’t admit it, or even worse, can’t see it…
But, well done for coming back here!
Why don’t you have a go, Glen? You could hardly do worse.
Is the triumphalism over the Rudd/Gillard Government’s ETS premature?
It will take a couple of decades to determine whether it really is a good climate change response.
It is a pretty lame ETS, per se. Plenty of excellent analysis on this, so no need to repeat it all.
In purely practical terrms, the ETS is somewhat better than nothing at all, provided it really does provide the quickest way to doing something real later on. It is for this reason that I now support it.
The ETS may reflect political reality – there would be better judges on this blog than myself on this matter – those who really do understand the KathnKims, the Aspirational Voters, those who understand the powerful ones who benefited most from pumping CO2 into the atmosphere in the first place, and, of course, those who understand the power of the wily old King Carbon.
In political terms the ETS is ‘realistic’, ‘practical’ and ‘balanced.’
So, the triumphalism is most probably well-based in the political sense.
Will the triumphalism survive the next couple of decades as attention focuses increasingly on the bio-physical realities of climate change as they continue to kick in?
Glen has to win preselection for Higgins first. And he’s hoping rough Brough, Mr 10%+ 2pp swing in 2007, top 5 in Australia, will win it.
Grog @ 351
If you look closely at Adam’s enlargement (as it were) you’ll see that everyone is most amused. One bloke just in front og Gough nd to his left has even turned around in his helpless mirth to see who keeps coming out with the stream of humorous and appropriate one-liners. Of course back then he would have been uttering them in Latin.
Ozpol, it had slipped my mind for a minute that Brendan is quitting, that’s probably why he’s the happiest and most relaxed looking Liberal at the moment.
Pass, i’d rather not be Opposition Leader for 5+ years
Keating didnt win his ‘first’ term as Hawke won it for him…
Keating did some good things with the economy but he also gave it a recession and massive unemployment…oh and he lost to John Howard lol.
There would be something in it for a Howard musical but i doubt the art community would back it unless it was anti….
Quite right jv!
Yep, Keating the Muscial is the main topic of today….
Whitlam continued to use hair-oil (though I doubt it was Brylcreeme, probably something more classy) until his trip to China in 1971, when he apparently ran out of it while travelling, and came back with his “fluffy look”, which everyone said looked much better so he stuck with it.
Psephos
Dolly’s article today included a quote from Rudd saying something like the presence of WMDs in Iraq being “an indisputable fact” or words to that effect, while he was Shadow Foreign Minister. He’s now very, very cross about Rudd accusing the Libs of taking us to war based on a lie. Sorry but I don’t have the link.
It’s true Rudd thought there were WMDs in Iraqw. But he still didn’t vote to go to war. Many in the LIberal Party might have thought the email real, that doesn’t mean they all thought Turnbull’s strategy was right.
Oh, what a pity it isn’t a visual, Diog….Alex always looks so cute when he’s cwoss.
I heard a sound grab today of Ttone, and gee did he sound cut.
The bonheoffer thingy sounded like he was talking about a lost love.
and therein lies the Libs problems. No-one wants to put in the hard yards without personal reward at the end. None of that ‘for the good of the party’ nonsense for the Libs.
Abbott finds it most offensive that anyone other than him is allowed to have religious convictions or quote theologians.
Rudd and Nelson looked very chummy today, any chance the PM will offer Nelson a job after he leaves parliament?
Kev on Twitter re Today’s photo Op
Glen: The problem with your side of politics is that they still haven’t accepted they lost the 2007 election, and are reliant on silly stunts/obstruction/leaks from their public service plants & media toadies.
poly im not a career politician, so i wouldnt use that quote against me or the party…
What is true is that MT would stay for 5+ years as Opposition Leader if he became PM one day…Im not sure anyone else ‘wants’ it as much as he?
I think you’re right there.
I think because despite it all, Nelson is a decent bloke. (plus they both hate Turnbull
)
Evan i think that statement used by all those on the Left is purile, of courrse we have accepted we lost in 2007 the trouble is we have no plan to take us back into government…we need some policies quick smart…
Keating didn’t give the Australian economy a recession. Most developed countries went into recession in the early 1990s.
Keating took us out of a recession in 1982 that Fraser and Howard ‘gave’ us.
Surely the first step involves Turnbull announcing that all Liberal M.P.s who are 65 or over will be retiring at the next election. He can thank them for their services to the country, but explain that they have all told him it is time to move on.
Psephos
Maybe it was “Dapper Dan” hair pomade as worn by George Clooney’s character in the great film “Oh Brother Where art Thou” which was set in the late 30s. It wouldn’t have been the “Fop” brand, I feel sure, the one Clooney rejected in the film.
Otherwise it could have been “Californian Poppy” hair oil like I wore as a teenager.
No, he only looks like one because he isn’t Oppo Leader any more. It’s only a year since we were reviling his stupid, cynical, dishonent stunting about starving pensioners eating dog food, remember? He’s vain, treacherous, opportunist and self-seeking, and now he’s baling out because he can’t be PM. Rudd’s chumminess with Nelson and Costello is just another mind-game to niggle Turnbull.
You Liberals keep saying that, but you fail to say what actions caused it, rather than the global economy.
should have been clearer. not directed at you. definitely directed at sitting members.
I think they should pass the leadership to one of the more senior members, someone with no interest in being PM, who has the authority and experience to pull the ranks together before handing over to someone electable. Not going to happen, though. Self-destruction will probably continue unabated.
And that’s the problem with you Liberals and the US Repugs. You’ve gone too far to the right to the point where your remaining policies aren’t palatable to the general public. Your only choice is to come back to the centre, but you won’t. You’re in opposition for a loooong time.
Nope – no plan means you haven’t accepted why you lost. Too many think it was just “it’s time”.
When you get some policies, then you can say you have accepted the defeat.
That Turnbull has Chris Kenny as CoS says a lot.
Not that you’re a hater,psephos
I am a hater, and I don’t pretend otherwise. Particular of Labor rats like Nelson and Costello. Nelson demanded a safe seat and when we wouldn’t give him one he went and got one from the Libs. He’s beneath contempt IMHO.
4 Corners reveals another Amanda Vanstone stuff up.
Life’s too short Psephos.
I only devote an hour or two a day to hate. The rest I devote to music, art, architecture, philosophy, history, fine dining, literature … and election statistics.
Geez, even Big Brother only asked for “Two Minutes of Hate”!
The Unmaking of Australian National Security Policy
Address to the Fabian Society’s
Annual Chifley Me morial Lecture
By Kevin Rudd, MP
Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, Trade
and International Security
22 March 2006
http://www.fabian.org.au/1044.asp
Seeing Pyne & Abbott defend Turnbull today reminded me of this song
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sujz6DwEnx4
23 Sept 2002:
But 4 Feb 2003:
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/summary/summary.w3p;adv=;group=;orderBy=;page=0;query=WMD%20Dataset%3Ahansardr,hansards%20((SpeakerId%3A83T));querytype=;resCount=Default
Emailgate on Media Watch tonight. Q for discussion was: should Steve Lewis be forced to reveal a source if tainted. No definitive answer.
Why wasn’t the question: should Steve Lewis be required to commit seppuku on the steps of Parliament House? I believe that is what the Murdoch Press Code of Honour requires of underlings who fail their assigned tasks.
OK, Media Watch has again raised the point about Grech’s evidence being under oath.
I thought we had resolved (cos Pseph said) that evidence in Senate hearings wasn’t under oath.
So I’ve just checked the “Government guidelines for official witnesses before Parliamentary committees and related matters” and can find no reference to oaths.
http://www.aph.gov.au/SENATE/committee/wit_sub/gov_full.htm
I found a link for Dolly’s article.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25704825-5006703,00.html
And here is a section of a good interview of Rudd’s view’s on the War.
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2004/s1155011.htm
Psephos,
Too much blood.
They’ve got a shit sheet to get out.
A document or words purported to come from a genuine document that turns out to be fake and, the production of the fake a crime, should not afford a journalist the opportunity to protect their source. They are no longer protecting a source but an alleged criminal of some sort or the path to a criminal.
If you allow the protection of sources where there is falsified information then you allow anything to be produced and at the most politically inopportune time.
I’ve watched a lot of Senate hearings and I’ve never seen an oath administered. Senate committee chairs aren’t judges, they’re just Senators. Giving false evidence is a contempt, which can be prosecuted as a criminal offence, but it’s not perjury.
VP #395
Intersting interpretation of Media Watch you have there VP….my take on the “Q for discussion” was weather jouranlists are free to disclose sources that have lied to them.
The implication being, that Steve Lewis should feel free to run with the ‘fake’ story independent of the AFP investigation.
In Canada, apparently, the journalistic code of ethics (tee hee) says that if the source lies “all bets are off.”
Glen @ 377 wrote:
“Evan i think that statement used by all those on the Left is purile, of courrse we have accepted we lost in 2007 the trouble is we have no plan to take us back into government…we need some policies quick smart…”
I’ll believe that the Coalition has accepted it’s 2007 defeat when:
1. Members stop throwing QT “lollypops” at the government, only to have them smashed for six. Dorothy Dixers you ask in government; in Opposition the same sort of questions are own goals. Utegate apart, most Opposition questions have been own goals.
2. Members stop asking questions (esp lollypops) of the best government performers. The first Utegate questions apart (4 June), during that “Good news for the government week”, the Opposition asked Rudd, Gillard and other good performers what amounted to Dorothy Dixers, for which they smirked and/or gloated, “And I thank the homorable member for the question” having come very well prepared. Smart Opposition members, coping with good news for the government, ask obscure ministers of non-newsworthy portfolios curly questions, thereby minimising the government’s ability to show off for the viewing/ listening public.
3. They remember that what they got away with in government – in the Howard government, far more than most other governments I’ve seen/heard (ie since c1947) – and assume their opposites (now the government) will also get away with similar scandals. Utegate was not in the same race as a string of Howard gov scandals (inc using taxpayer’s hard-earned tp bail out his brother).
4. The Coalition has actually developed policies; when I can actually identify what it stands for, what its alternative policies are.
5. It’s worked out that, to sell themselves to the electorate, Oppositions DO have to be “Into the vision thing”. Only governments can run on their records.
And that’s just for starters…
Squig,
The last ten per cent of the program discussed your point.
Anyhow, it should be available for download shortly from the ABC, for those interested in the full version.
Abbott and Robb were not defending Turnbull today, they were preparing to stab him in the back. That’s how they do it in politics.
Everybody knows that it was Turnbull doing all the dirt throwing and not Labor throwing everything bar the kitchen sink at him, and it was Turnbull associating himself with a shadowy character. It’s their way of exposing Turnbull’s poor judgement and lack of fitness to continue to lead the Party.
Who needs the OO, Age or SMH when local newspapers all over the country are spreading the news on a grassroots level singing the praises of Kevin.
http://www.mudgeeguardian.com.au/news/local/news/general/thanks-again-kevin/1552841.aspx
http://www.cowraguardian.com.au/news/local/news/general/another-174000-for-cowra/1553380.aspx
The interesting question about Lewis and News is why, in the face of a repudiation of any email existing that connected Rudd and Ozcar that they ran the email anyway. This repudiation occurred on the Friday night. News ran with the photoshopped email on the Saturday.
What checks did they perform? Who would have confirmed the veracity of the email?
GG
Grech confirmed it, although he didn’t provide it to them IMHO.
Joe the cameraman??
No-one, obviously. That’s why Rudd gave them such a serve in the Reps on (I think) Tuesday. The first rule of politics is “never pick a fight with the Murdoch press,” but Rudd obviously feels confident enough to break it. It’s hard to think what more they could throw at him, and so far it’s all just bounced off.
I’m going to assume you’re right, so this is the end game, right here, right now
I hope I’m correct, putting my trust in your knowledge
The next few days will answer this …one way or…(perhaps I’ve watched to much West Wing)
Diogs,
Usually you need at least two independant verifications before running with a story of this status. Grech being the source is one thing. Grech as a witness is not a second source. Perhaps the Libs (either Abetz or Turnbull) confirmed the story.
There is more to why Turnbull attended the meeting with Grech. Surely, the alternative leader would have had intermediaries deal with this up until that moment at least.
Turnbull should have been the last reference rather than a player.
VP
All Media Watch did for me tonight was re-inforce most of the questions I have already
ie what is the nature of the concoction?
Not much information is coming from the AFP – it would help if Steve L filled us in,
Media Watch also showed the bit from the Senate where Cameron asked Grech: “How many times did you speak to Lewis yesterday?”
Answer: 4.
This was not reported by the msm.
I believe Steve Lewis has already taken up his new assignment as special correspondent in Tajikistan.
So Abetz could read it from the newspaper on Friday morning…
I’m sure Lewis thought he had a Gold Walkley. But, looks like he’s going to be covering the Dapto dogs from now on.
Musrum,
It might have been a leap day!
I guess we all to often know the answer to that. There was no stopping the msm smear, you would almost think it was prearranged.
Rudd has been super confident from the beginning, you would almost think he knows there could be a whole bunch of people in big trouble with the AFP, hence the serve on some of the media. We should not forget Gillard made a few attacks before she left as well, before the story broke.
All the journos so keen to join in a smear of Rudd, missed the biggest story of all. If the listened to Rudd some enterprising journo could have gone for the prize by suggesting it could be a hoax and running that line. But nope.
Speaking of Libs defending Malcolm today we were looking at A-Pac around 7pm local (9pm Sydney/Melbourne) and noted Tony Abbot and Chris Pyne each had their own 10 mins. or so of personal air time on A-Pac …… my husband said “what the h***? since when does Pyne deserve a second of air time?” and promptly passed him by
Dio – very interesting #409…..there is still alot of room to speculate.
I find the news that there is a real historical example of an email/Prime Minister issue in a legal jurisdication that is similar to our own (Canada) to score 10 out 10 in terms of co-incidence
Just as a thought exercise, imagine a scenario where GG hadn’t heard of the email at the time Steve Lewis read it out to him on the phone…
would GG type it out as he heard the email read to him? say, for example, in the same way a journalist would take notes during a conversation, just to keep a record…
Now, would the AFP still view that as a ‘concoction”?
It was for MT.
Maybe the Dark Lord rang them up from New York and said “Nail that little commo jerk Rudd on this or I’ll have your goolies on a plate tomorrow. If you don’t have any evidence, make it up, that’s what I always used to do, and no-one will dare call you on it.”
For those interested, here is a comparison of the US climate bill and the CPRS, by the Parliamentary Library.
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/BN/2008-09/ClimateChangeBill.htm#_Toc232926818
In summary – both are woefully inadequate and there’s little point in pursuing either. The CPRS is weaker than the US bill in a number of areas.
Oz,
You would say that wouldn’t you?
Maybe they should change the media ownership laws. Such as restricting ownership to no more than 5% of a company to any one individual. That will stick a rocket up the Dark Lord’s @rse
GG
How would you rate the Rudd/Gillard Governments ETS on a scale of: ‘Totally effective’, ‘Adequate’, ‘Inadequate’ and ‘Woefully inadequate’?
The Dark Lord is defeated by sites like PB that call bullshit on their coverage.
Boerwar,
Yes and no. But, not yet.
Only if you’re unwell – delusional
Centre @ 428
The general idea of revisiting media monopoly laws is an excellent suggestion. I wouldn’t be bothered about the print versions, they will probably die as is. The issue would be broadcast and digital laws.
My computer speed dropped right down this evening and I missed these.
http://www.a-pac.tv/
I suggest you read the article yourself, then maybe some of the IPCC reports, and then tell me which part of that post you disagree with.
I didn’t think the ABC had it in them: Tammy Wynette doing the intro for Lateline.
TJ will be talking CPRS to Tim Flannery.
Re Lateline: I always knew Chrissy Pyne was channelling Tammy Wynette.
That was hilarious.
The Libs must really be irrelevant if the ABC breaks out like that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwBirf4BWew
Vigo 415
Agreed. I was staggered by that tonight. I had never heard Cameron’s questions, or the answers, before. They would have shed a whole new light on the question of whether Grech was an unwilling dupe or one of the concocters a week before that was obvious. I was already suspicious of him for not having kept a copy of the email or being able to recall the sender, but to think he was talking to a journalist about it before he spoke to the Senate committee, basically would have exposed him from day one.
What’s next: D-I-V-O-R-C-E?
While the US bill is still pretty weak, it’s interesting comparing Obama’s rhetoric with Rudd’s.
Obama is very clear about the fact he wants to transform the economy and that the 21st century will based around clean and renewable energy. The only thing Rudd is adamant on is ensuring that our economy is still linked to the polluting industries.
Viggo @ 415: Yes they did.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-incredible-shrinking-leader–how-the-opposition-leader-blew-it-20090626-czut.html?page=-1
Blah, never thought that after we got rid of Howard we’d be comparing ourselves to the bloody US.
Too depressed to keep talking about the impending doom of our planet.
You have of course got a quotation to support that allegation? (Remember what happened to the last person who made unsupported allegations against Rudd, Oz.)
Socrates #439
I had seen the Cameron/Grech exchange somewhere before, but i just deleted all my stuff, so I can’t cross-check. Maybe it was on Insiders..
The question from that exchange is if Steve Lewis had heard (during four conversations in one day) that his information he had was wrong, then why was the story locked in for the next day’s print edition?
perhaps he had another source… A dark Lord
Sam Clemens – that was a bit late wasn’t it? There wasn’t much mention of that in the rush to blurt out all the backgrounding everyone had been getting that they couldn’t use till Catboy gave em the go ahead. Though one of the few regular commenters who kept her powder dry and seemed the cool head through all of the ‘questions must be answered’ period was the sometimes maligned A. Crabb.
Psephos,
Greens don’t have facts or quotations. It’s too much work to be anything but anti-Oz.
Yes Boerwar. Btw if media barons are hoping to make their revenues by charging for content on the – they are dreaming!
Marktwain
Apogolies.
I knew of the 4 calls from somewhere else, and thought it was odd that it wasn’t mentioned at the time. I had thought that Lewis had heavied Grech into confusion at the time, and never would have dreamed that it all was going to turn out so magnificently. The drama in the last week has made this season’s rugby league antics look staid.
Pancho, that was the first one I could find on Google. I could go on, but I won’t.
Most of the press gallery had had this tripe waved in front of their faces for weeks, but only Steve Lewis had the idiocy to publish it. The rest were waiting for evidence. As they should have.
Annabel is a treasure.
on the net @ 448.
marktwain,
Crabbe has been off the register because she was charmed by her topic of discussion. Her 6000 word essay on Turnbull will go down as one of the most irrelevant pieces of hagiographic tosh yet produced by an allegedly professional journalist.
As treasure she is well and truly buried.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/labor-in-bid-for-clean-coal/2007/02/25/1172338469214.html
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23744410-11949,00.html
+ Billions in continuing Howard-era subsidies to the fossil fuels industries
+ Pages and pages of legislation ensuring nothing but the continued growth of the kind of industries that need to fundamentally change so we can prevent climate change.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, GG. Either you didn’t read it, or you’re full of it. One or the other.
Just one technical question on the polls – with AC Neilsen and Newspoll coming out at the same time and so close together on 2PP (56/44 adn 58/42) could you combine the figures and sample sizes to get a more accurate figure and reduced MOE? Do they both state their sample size? I know methodologies vary but if put together its a pretty clear result.
Glen seems to think that the Libs “have” come to grips with the fact that they lost Government. I dispute that. In recent times I have read thousands of comments by Lib supporters on the net and they pretty well reflect Coalition tactics and commentary, either directly or through the media.
Similarly, this one believes in a Rudd Honeymoon which will end when they expose what he “really is” to the electorate. Once the “real” Rudd has been exposed, the Labor machine will collapse and the rightful holders will be restored back where they belong, in Government. They really are dependent on the media to accomplish this task. The Dark Knight’s underlings, Milne and Co are integral to this strategy
Virtually every article by these commentators contains another smear or suggestion of impropriety such as this one by Milne.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25703955-33435,00.html
Old crank. I heard on one of the garbage newses tonight that 1 in 2 folks have a ticket for that super-duper lotto draw. People love treasure, even that less accessable than the buried stuff.
Stephen Long is wearing a great suit.
Socrates, check out Possum’s Pollytrend.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/29/pollytrend-where-the-polling-now-sits/
Only a real man gets away with wearing a pin-stripe like that.
marktwain,
I like the Beatles reference.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0YifXhm-Zc
I hope you are not Annabel infiltrating the free press.
I wish I was Annabel – or had her talent – as then I could afford both to support my drinking habit and buy a new computer that doesn’t have a heart attack when I try to play YouTube videos.
Growler = Tony Abbott
marktwain = Nicola Roxon
LOL
*off to bed with no teddy*
The above piece can be summarised
I hate Rudd
I really hate Rudd
I want Rudd to really, really fail
I will enjoy watching Rudd fail
I will try and tell the world Rudd as nasty man
That will help him fail
Milne is starting to sound like the Peoples Front of Judea or is it the Judean People’s Front? He really hates the Romans…a lot.
Kev telling him what a wnker he is must have cut through the slime.
Teddy’s scared of Tony Abbott. Teddy thinks the manic gleam in his eye is too disturbing to contemplate.
Actually, While I’m at it
Doesn’t the Cameron/Grech exchange imply that Cameron knew of efforts of Grech to dissuade Steve LEwis from running the story????
I mean, why else would Cameron ask such a specific question…surely Cameron’s meet someone who knew grech had coversations with Lewis?
marktwain,
On Abbot’s form to date, as long as teddy is female, she will enjoy a career of great achievement.
TP
The analogy to the People’s Popular Front is interesting given later events in that movie. It looks like a crack suicide squad has inflitrated the office of Leader of the Opposition.
Teddy’s actually the name I give my boyfriend when he’s being good and I want to reward him.
marktwain,
So, Teddy does not exist?
Oz 460
Thanks very interesting. So the drift away from Labor had bottomed out even before the latest polls. Presumably the better economic news and confidence was helping. Maybe that made Turnbull feel he had to take the risk? He’d have interesting memoirs to sel if he ever writes the whole truth down.
The DD threat will have some teeth now on these numbers, so it will be interesting to se how the ETS bill goes in the Senate.
That comment at 457 is by a poster on Milne’s column in case anyone thinks it is by Milne.
Notice though, hoe the poster is far more articulate than the usual run of the mill hack Lib poster. Most probably a Lib staffer going by the manner in which the post is constructed with all the critical Lib attack points as well as adding Milne’s new smear against Rudd.
There can be very little doubt that throughout his term as Labor Leader, Rudd has been identified as crucial to the fortunes of the Labor Party and that to bring him down, they bring down the whole Labor edifice.
They would have been far better off expending all this energy and resources into restructuring their Party and developing policies that resonate with the electorate even if it meant a bit of me-tooism as I said a day or two ago. This tactic has gone nowhere and has the potential now to really backfire on them and send them backwards further!
MT @470
lol Some Teddies have all the luck.
Hang on, GG, I’ll just go check.
Yep, he insists he’s real. I’ll take his word for it.
I won’t tell you what he calls me when I’m being good and he wants to reward me.
thinks creatively, *grins*
marktwain,
mum?
Well there you go, Tim Flannery thinks the CPRS should be passed.
Dont tell Oz
Granny. He likes the old chicks.
Good, I’d rather you kept it to yourself.
I think it should be passed for the same reason Flannery thinks it should be passed, it is a first step on a long road to helping fix the problem.
If it is passed before Copenhagen, then it strengthens Australia’s bargaining position to get other countries to do more, if they do more, then it adds pressure back on the Australian government to increase our targets.
marktwain,
Is that what he tells you? Are you an old boiler?
I have a hunch that it will be the little things, lots of them, that will give us the unpleasantest surprises as a result of climate change. Like bark beetles. The link below is to an article about the potential of lots of little things on the other side of the ledger.
It is brought to you by the same newspaper which managed to publish an article about the devastation of bark beetles without once mentioning the role of climate change, but still…
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/29/business/energy-environment/29biofuel.html?ref=business
PS
Is the soccer live??
(Im watching the confed cup on SBS and the USA is leading Brazil 2-0)
HAS THE WORLD GONE MAD!
No it’s not live Gusface but I won’t spoil the result for you.
At 35, perhaps not yet, but definitely heading that way.
Teddy is calling.
Oz
Like you I would prefer to see more rather than less done on climate change. However I would rather see the revised ETS passed rather than not. It has far too much compensation, and won’t bite soon enough, but at least it is structuraly sound once running now that voluntary action is taken account of. You can always tighten an ETS up later, but if they get weakened later the permit trading market is ruined, as the European one was.
NB – this is provided the 5/25 formula is passed. If its watered down to 5/15 again then no deal.
Gusface
Perhaps he thinks it like the Little Big Horn. He might as well join the last couple of folk standing, not that it is going to do anyone much good, unless the US cavalry arrives in time…
Gusface,
Yes, Yes
But, order will be restored. Trust me.
Which reminds me: The US army is right about now withdrawing from lots of places in Iraq.
Ouch! This post by Possum really bites.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/06/29/5151/
scorpio
A fairly devastating set of graphs…
Hilary’s the US’s coach right?
Gus,
No, Hillary is too busy saving Obama’s arse.
markktwain,
Good night sweet chook,
And may flights of budgerigars tweet thee to thy rest.
The U.S. defeated Spain remember.
A little while ago someone on this blog suggested something like military spending was not big enough to address world poverty effectively.
I reckon spending $1.46 trillion a year on poverty should just about address the needs of the billion or so people in the world who are suffering from malnutrition.
2 nix halftime
The world has gone mad
next we will get a liberal opposition leader telling the truth
Always told ya GG ,Hilary is a good dietician wasting her time pretending she is a world leader.
Oz and others
Good news on the ETS – the WTO will permit countries to tax offending imports if they don’t have a carbon tax/ETS component. This isvery god news for global agreement – it eliminates the free rider problem for an ETS.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d9d8ad2e-61e9-11de-9e03-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
It will be inte4resting to see how long this strategy lasts, Question Time once Parliament resumes will be a hoot with Turnbull targeted daily. How long can they prop him up?
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25709021-662,00.html
Ah, the old loyalties die hard don’t they GG? She’s doing OK. For her it’s a bit like what you learn early on in rugby union and league: Follow the big bloke through the ruck and be in the right place for the pass.
Not too much arse-saving necessary on climate policy apparent in this interview of Obama from the NYT yesterday.
Sets it out pretty well I thought. It shows considerable realisation by Obama of the ‘realpolitik’ behaviour of the parochial reps and senators. He seems to be doing rather well, under the circumstances.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/29/us/politics/29climate-text.html?pagewanted=all
As a comparative study, you might like to see Dennis Kucinich’s outline as to why he voted against the US bill (link courtesy of HusseinStWorm on 101). The Kuciniches of the political landscape with the freedom to spell out the scientific reality, and also Obama as leader will be working their respective arses off before, during and after Copenahagen to get to where we must go. Let’s wish them luck.
http://www.clevelandleader.com/node/10478
I think Flannery’s been on the record supporting the CPRS since before the revision. I stopped paying attention to him when he started advocating CCS.
ShowsOn, what evidence exists that makes you think that this is a “first step”? Where have Kevin Rudd or Penny Wong expressed any real desire to fundamentally transform the economy and make the kind of cuts we need? When do they plan on doing this? Why do you think they’ll do in 2012 or 2015 if they won’t do it now? How long before they actually do it?
The only thing worth taking to Copenhagen is some sort of legislated cut that will actually help the environment. Anything less simply undermines the deal that we need. That much has already been stated by the UNFCCC secretariat.
Voluntary action has not been taken care of. The mechanism set up the government is a scheme whereby individuals can pay extra, on top of the costs they’ve already sunk to reduce their emissions, to buy emissions permits. In effect, households have to pay twice to get their emissions cuts recognised whereas the big polluting industries are ensured a free supply of permits.
The 25% target has been specifically designed to make sure that Australia can argue that the agreement doesn’t meet the criteria, whatever the results of Copenhagen.
It’s also worth mentioning that a 25% cut is on the lower end of achieving 450ppm of CO2 which the latest evidence suggests is not actually enough to prevent runaway climate change.
The thing with climate change and our emissions, which I don’t think some people have grasped, is that cuts to emissions and potential to avert climate change don’t have a linear relationship.
By that I mean that if you accept the science that says 40% cuts are by 2020 to stabilise at 450ppm and this will cause X amount of damage, this doesn’t mean that 20% cuts by 2020 will result in X/2 amount of damage.
If we don’t make those cuts needed to stabilise at 450ppm (preferably 350ppm) by 2020 than the warming that will occur will result in further feedback mechanisms coming into play such as the release of methane from the Arctic permafrost and the loss of the polar icecaps reflecting capabilities. At that stage it will be too late, regardless of the cuts we make.
This is why anything less than really significant cuts are meaningless and why suggestions that Rudd is going to have an epiphany in a few years are really worrying. Not only is there absolutely no evidence to suggest that’s going on, this scheme, if passed, won’t be up and running till 2012. That leaves only 8 years for the Government to say “Ok, remember that scheme we just implemented? Well it’s pitifully weak and so we’re starting all over again, this time stronger”, prepare a new scheme, implement it, and then make those cuts. There’s nowhere near enough time for that by that stage, even if you somehow believe that the Government will turn around the day after the scheme is implemented and “ramp it up”.
That’s why it’s critical that it isn’t locked in and the momentum builds for a stronger one. This is what The Greens are trying to do but they aren’t in Government, so at this stage they’re effectively reduced to a lobby group. The only group who can make the decision we need for stronger cuts is the Government and our only chance is for them to break free of the strangehold of the carbon lobby and show some real leadership by going for high cuts like the 30% of the EU and the 42% of the UK.
Thanks Socrates, good news.
Great article by Kucinich.
I assume you apply that high standard to Bob
This will fire some up:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-mp-blasts-party-poll-tactics-20090629-d2jl.html
It seems George Megalogenis is feeling a bit left out of things here. He should read PB!
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/conspiracy_stuff_up_or_something_in_between/
Gee
brazil were ripped off, to mine eyes that was over the line
That said the US’s goalie is pretty good
Which Bob?
If you mean Brown, he supports neither the CPRS nor CCS.
More on Labor vs. Green in Victoria.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/the-greening-of-inner-melbourne-20090629-d2k2.html?page=1
The fact passing the CPRS is a first step. If we don’t have a CPRS, then we have nothing, which I consider ‘no steps’.
It looks like there will be a Victorian Newspoll in The Australian tomorrow. There is an opinion piece concerning Brumby retaining strong support:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25710630-5013480,00.html
I wish you read my post.
It’s a bit more comprehensive on the topic than your two slogan’s “First step” and “Price on carbon”.
At least flannery has the intelligence to at least start something and deal with the cards on the table-
not some dreamland where everyone rushes to listen at the Greens solution.
when bob next turns will you decry his stance???
(as I did on his venal cry for donations)
Socrates
That’s good isn’t it. It seems to me that over the past few days we’ve seen the result of a fair bit of good old-fashioned diplomacy that must have been taking place for a while. Your news of the WTO, plus that from the UK – the 2% increase max; the interview from Obama; even Wong here supporting Gordon Brown. Don’t tell me the world is getting its act together? Wouldn’t that be nice?
One thing though, Obama doesn’t seem too confident in that iinterview about the chances of the tariff concept for recalcitrants getting through the Senate. Maybe the WTO has timed its announcement for that reason.
Yes.
OK, I re-read it. I still think we need to take the FIRST STEP of having the CPRS passed, so that we have a PRICE ON CARBON.
It would probably just result in a big tariff war which in the long run would make all countries worse off. I don’t think it is a good idea.
We need economic growth in order to pay for new clean technologies. I don’t think crippling global trade will help that.
Duly noted.
Ps as you would know, im not a green baiter but this CC thingy has the real potential to see the greens out of the picture.
I personally would hate them to be seen as part of the problem,rather than as part of the solution.
But pragmatism trumps dogma most of the time
My position on the CPRS is on my own views and reasoning which I explained above. It doesn’t look like either you or ShowsOn read it, or you just don’t see things the same way I do. Fair enough.
But stripping down my logic to the barest point you get this – For the planet to have any chance of surviving we need to make cuts in the order of 40% by 2020. Anything less than that will be a waste of time, for the reasons previously explained.
At this point in time The Greens position aligns with me own. I’m not so easily swayed by a particular policy, purely because it is that party’s policy, as some others. If The Greens end up supporting a scheme that I view as counterproductive then I will oppose them at least as strongly as I oppose the Government.
Gusface @510.
I don’t think the linesman has ever played the game: just the angle it came at after it hit the crossbar is a dead giveaway.
I used to be a goalkeeper, not a very good one.
Fantastic. I have no problem with you expressing your views, but it doesn’t mean I have to agree with them.
This is where we disagree. I don’t think it is a waste of time for us to put in legislation a system that will enable us to make 40% cuts by 2020, even if that isn’t the initial intent of the system.
How will we be able to make 40% cuts by 2020 without any ETS?
Made me laugh at least.
By out of the picture do you mean resigned to political death like Greensborough Growler is constantly suggesting? Or do you mean dealt out of the equation on the CPRS?
If the first, I’ve previously explained why I don’t think that the outcome of the CPRS will be significant on The Green’s vote. Enough people think it should be stronger for The Greens to expand their vote if that was the sole issue. Even without that, you’ve still got The Greens measuring significant swings in the latest polls, and that’s with the economy and utegate as the number one issue.
If you’re talking about the second, I’ve said above that I think The Greens have already been reduced to pretty much just a lobby group on the CPRS. This is not their fault, they produced a more detailed policy prior to the election than Labor, that was in line with the science – something Labor said they supported. Most people didn’t expect Labor to develop their policy so intimately with the carbon lobby, though in hindsight it seems more obvious. I said from day one, when the Government released it’s policy and then again when it was revised, that it showed that Labor was looking to negotiate straight with the Coalition (as it’s effectively the policy they would implement). You might not remember, but a lot of people here said that stupid and I wasn’t giving Rudd and Wong enough credit.
Viggo
Well brazil got their due anyway.
great match!
That was the plan.
Stop revealing the results, I’m in half an hour behind land remember.
How will be able to make 40% cuts by 2020 with the CPRS?
By excluding transport and agriculture, as well giving away such massive amounts of compensation, it is *practically* impossible. The only reason the world *practical* is in there, because it’s possible if we somehow get 100% renewable energy.
Because the targets and cap can be changed due to international and domestic political pressure.
In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if the topic of what to do with the cap becomes an issue at every subsequent federal election.
What scenario do you envisage this dramatic revision occuring in?
Eg. If the Government wants massive compensation and low targets in 2012, why do you think it will change in 2015, or 2016?
Do you somehow foresee the nexus between the carbon lobby and the major political parties tearing apart?
So your defence of the CPRS is that something completely hypothetical may or may not occur in the future and the current evidence suggests that it’s far more likely that it won’t.
Weak.
Scorpio @ 509
Only 2 feasible scenarios for George from me – all with the investigation in mind so we don’t say anything actionable:
1. The Libs pressured, ah, a very senior public servant, with existing links to the Libs, to the extent he/she felt obliged to manufacture the fake email. This scenario requires that the Libs were a bit ignorant of the dangers, and inclined to think that an old hand like such a senior person could achieve that outcome – or he/she assured them he/she could do it. They thought the target would be hit without the weapon (fake email) being found. Sending to a home computer might be thought to be part of that obfuscation. Maybe not all senior PS’s are as computer savvy as they thought. In fact not all public servants are, even at a high level – I know a couple.
The other point is I don’t think the Libs anticipated the AFP coming into it at all. They perhaps started this game and it got away from them. Hence Abbott in Parliament on Monday bemoaning the government behaving ‘like a police state’. Also explains their hang-dog demeanour all day Monday. They were gutted.
If this scenario is correct Turnbull may well be in the next Pirates of the Caribbean movie, as an extra in an underground ghost scene where he gets run through 14 or so times by Jack Sparrow, but continues to speak as usual, taunting Jack about ‘the fake cutlass’.
Second Scenario
2. A senior public servant is mad, does not see his/her very senior level to be important (he/she’d be the only one) and acting on his/her own, manufactured the fake because he/she thought they (Libs) wanted it, or because he/she hates Rudd. I favour option 1.
Because 1) We will see the situation becoming more desperate 2) Domestic political pressure will demand faster action (lower caps) 3) A Labor government will see a political opportunity in proposing lower caps to demonstrate that the opposition can’t be trusted on the issue, i.e they will use it as a wedge issue at elections.
Current evidence is irrelevant. It is what happens in the future that counts. I think that rejecting the CPRS because it isn’t perfect will do more harm to the environment and economy than good.
How long would you be willing to reject the CPRS for the hypothetical chance of a perfect system being proposed? Oh, and it just can’t be proposed, it has to get turned into laws. How long would you be willing to wait for that? 5 years? 10 years? 20 years?
JV
There is always option 3
the butler did it
Showson @ 519
I hope not. I get the impression it would be restricted to what the exporting country was doing on the reduction program – and also what they were exporting. If it’s targetted and under the WTO it would just be another financial incentive to better emissions in production like those within each country, wouldn’t it?
Gusface
option 3?
Well I did watch Miss Marple last night
Eck, slogans getting boring.
Victorian Newspoll:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/30jun-vicnewspoll.html
56-44.
As long as the Greens can milk the issue for more votes
Ok, all conjecture. Thanks.
I thought blocking or delaying the CPRS would annihilate The Greens?
Get your stories straight.
?
Your asserted that we are all doomed if the CPRS passes is pure conjecture.
Option 4
ALP found out a senoir public servant was leeking to the Libs and played a classic false information trap for the Opposition to fall into. I don’t actually belive this is the case for 2 reasons
a) The email was sent long before the ute thing was in play and it would seem to be a very big coincidence that the false info they chose to put in play happened to line up with the exact issue they seemed to be getting into trouble on.
b) Rudd et al seemed genuinely confused by the initial ute questions from Turnball and the email allegation
but it is an option.
The Greens have made themselves irrelevant. The future of the CPRS will be determined by whether or not Malcolm Turnbull tells his party room to vote for it.
Victorian Newspoll 56/44:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/30jun-vicnewspoll.html
Showson & Oz
You’re both on the same side really. It’s just the best way to get to the targets. You read Dennis Kucinech and feel guilty about our targets, because he is correct on the science. Then you read Obama’s interview yesterday, and realise they both have very important roles to play as things develop. People like Kucinech in the Democrats are like the Greens here on this topic of climate change – because someone in the political mix must keep reminding the vested interests that the status quo cannot continue (as Obama said yesteday). Obama’s role (and Rudd’s) at this late stage is trying to get the best possible from the vested interests at home and the best agreements with other countries preparing for the deals at Copenhagen. Yes, there should have been more leadership on it but this is the time to get all your marbles in a nice circle. It isn’t a choice between one or the other approach, it’s about both. There is no basis for the vitriol between the Greens and the Labor people here, at least on this topic. Everyone has a role to play in the development of policy and public opinion. It is hard though when the truth is out there!
Here endeth the mediation from a disinterested (ie no party) observor.
Re ETS
The political will and political capital needed to inpliment a soft policy and then strengthen it (2 steps) is less than the political capital required to put in a strong policy to begin with. The political cost of building the parts is less than the political cost of the whole.
Impliment an ETS, regroup and push for more. This is the only way.
In fact the best thing to come out of the Ozcar scandal may well be the extra political capital that Rudd recieves that can be invested in real and significant change that always offends a significant number of voters. Turnball may have just done more for the implimentation of a comprehensive plan to combat CC than any in the country.
Thanks for verballing me once again Oz
Politics is all about reconciling what is desirable with what is possible.
Unfortunately, the way the numbers currently line up in the Australian senate makes it impossible to do any more than what the Government has proposed, and even that is turning into a struggle that probably won’t be resolved until November.
Of course I wish the targets were higher, but I completely reject the conjecture that we will all be better off if this is delayed again until after the next election. What happens then if the Greens again don’t agree to what Labor wants? Does that mean we delay it again until after the 2013 election? What happens if Labor loses that election, and the Liberals are elected on a platform of a flat carbon tax? Would that mean no carbon trading scheme until 2016 at the earliest?
Eratosthanes
It’s a re-investment game alright. Obama is spending some of his capital as we speak, Rudd has been slower, but signs have been there over the last couple of days that a bit of international alignment is now occuring before Copenhagen. I mean the Gordon Brown comments supported by Penny Wong, although I haven’t seen the detail – only what I saw on someone else’s SMH.
@ 545 option 4
OK, I think we have a movie!
LOL! Bernie Madoff sentenced to 150 years in jail.
Funny how you can kill people in Australia and get a couple of years in prison and you can do a Madoff in the USA and get 150 years…shows how gutless our legal system is.
Appears Tony Abbott has stood by MT to get a better portfolio in the soon to be announced re-shuffle…
551 Showson
Agree – no delay. I believe that no party will vote against the legislation if pushed to the wall. I reckon that if the libs hold out the greens would cave if Fielding does, but I can’t him doing that, the jolly idiot. I also can’t see the libs holding out anymore. Therefore the Greens can stay ‘pure’ and it will pass anyway, because Turnbull can’t give a trigger – certainly not now.
Something that our Green Bloggers repeatedly fail to realise – they think Government is like an oversized meeting of the Socialist Alliance where it is so easy to get every crackpot idea passed.
Well it ain’t and may I remind them that when a Liberal named Colin Barnett proposed a Canal with no costings or anything, he was soundly trounced in the polls, same with Mark Latham and the Tasmanian Forests plan.
Both are examples of what happens when you propose things which are not popular.
150 years for a money offence against the rich. Tells you a bit about the USA doesn’t it?
556 – Frank, we’re talking about an emissions reduction scheme which the polls tell us is popular.
Perhaps a little less knee-jerk reduction of every subject into simplistic categorisation of contributors by you would help with a convivial discusison.
Have a look back. What do you think we should be going for leading up to Copenhagen?
I am talking a political fact of life – something the Greens fail to Grasp. Their fairy-fairy policy WILL cost jobs – and in these hard economic times to adopt the Green’s target is political Hari Kari, especially in marginal seats where such industries are located.
Oh and I support the current ALP Policy.
I didn’t even realise we had a Hari Kari industry. Perhaps we can retrain the workers in that industry, if you are worried for them. Others are happy for retraining and advancement into emission friendly employment which they know will continue to grow with the GNP under the ETS proposals, including the Greens’ policy.
You still haven’t read the Treasury modelling.
I guess you do. I presume you mean government policy. So, would you be proposing any change to that current policy if the outcome of Copenhagen goes further in targets?
You don’t get it at all.
Closure of Industry and Job Losses DOES equal electoral poison. May I remind you of Mark Lathjam in 2004 and how the CFMEU were applauding John Howard as a hero, and the loss of those seats in Tasmania.
Greens- Electoral and financial suicide – FACT.
And if you don’t believe me – here it is from Wikipedia:
[Tasmanian forests erupt as the main issue during the last week
In the last days of the campaign the environment policies regarding the logging of Tasmania's old-growth forests were released by both major parties, but too late for the Greens to adjust their preference flows on how-to-vote cards in most electorates as the majority were already printed. In the game of "cat and mouse" on Tasmanian forest policy between Mark Latham and John Howard, Latham eventually lost out when Dick Adams (Labor member for the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), Tasmanian Labor Premier Paul Lennon and CFMEU's Tasmanian secretary Scott McLean all attacked Latham's forest policy. At a timber workers' rally on the day Labor's forestry policy was announced, Scott McLean asked those gathered to pass a resolution of no confidence in Mr Latham's ability to lead the country.[8] Michael O’Connor, assistant national secretary of the CFMEU said the Coalition’s forest policy represented a much better deal for his members than Labor’s policy.[9] Australian Labor Party national president Carmen Lawrence later said that “Labor has only itself to blame for the backlash over its forestry policy” and that it was a strategic mistake to release the policy so late in the election campaign. She stated that she was disappointed in criticism from within the ALP and union movement, and that the party did not leave itself enough time to sell the package.[10]
Treasury and the Department of Finance reported on the validity of Labor’s costings of their promises. They claimed to identify a different flaw to that identified by Liberal Treasurer Costello, but overall Labor was satisfied with the report.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_federal_election,_2004#Tasmanian_forests_erupt_as_the_main_issue_during_the_last_week
555 [Appears Tony Abbott has stood by MT to get a better portfolio in the soon to be announced re-shuffle…]
Glen, that’s the best I’ve heard from the Liberals yet! They need a change of Leadership. Decide it is all too hard and reshuffle the backbench with a couple of slight changes. A bit like requiring brain surgery deciding it is all to difficult and trimming their toenails instead.
I don’t buy this argument that there is nobody to lead the Liberals. Anybody would be as good as Turnbull and a big possibility of being better.
Any talk about changing the Liberal leadership must take the state of the party’s finances into account.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record I’ll repeat what I said at Crikey yesterday.
The Liberal party is financially broke. Turnbull is prepared to bankroll their 2010 election campaign. He has basically rented the Liberal Party for a couple of years to see if can deliver him what he so desperately craves. He he will remain leader through to the election unless he decides to quit sooner.
People are kidding themselves if they think it’s just about having someone electable in the top job.
And the USA has about 1% of their population in jail, so dam clever. The biggest joke of all. The cost of making all those people non productive is added to their GDP.
More on the theme bomb cost money and bring very little economic advantage in the modern world.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/peace-is-our-best-defence-20090628-d17h.html?page=-1
Cheer your day up with Nicholson’s “palpable hit” http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/ Sez it all, really!
And for the day’s first WTF moment, Phil Coorey’s:
“Mr Abbott has been shut out since the last election, but will be brought back into the fold after an impressive performance defending Mr Turnbull during the OzCar affair.”
Obviously didn’t check out the results of a few “preferred Oppo leader” polls yesterday’s inc his own’s on-liner. Tony may have impressed the Libs and their meeja mates, but the Great Aussie Public (ie electors)? Mind you, even by The Abbott’s past standards his “Utgate” efforts just about capped the Three Weird Sisters, Tiresias and the Delphi Oracle.
Eat yr heart out, Henry Garnet!
Manager of Opposition Business – Abbott vs Pyne = man vs boy.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/labor-mp-blasts-party-poll-tactics-20090629-d2jl.html
Really? You don’t say?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/the-greening-of-inner-melbourne-20090629-d2k2.html?page=1
Thanks for that article Oz. Good reading.
And bloggers are analysed by a Fairfax staffer Michael Lallo in “Thanks so much for your comments, Mr Barking Mad” http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/thanks-so-much-for-your-comments-mr-barking-mad-20090629-d2f4.html?page=-1
“But why do we lefties find it so addictive? Well, because nothing gratifies us more than being offended on behalf of oppressed minorities. Conservative columnists give us plenty to work with, but their prejudice is sometimes masked by their restrained prose.
Not so with the readers of news websites, most of whom preface their outlandishly bigoted statements with “I’m not a bigot, but …”
And that’s only the first two on-line papers read!
Loved the
There’s a whole orchestra of them on news comments.
Tensions
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25711357-5005962,00.html
No-one takes any notice of who’s on the LNP front bench anyway. At quiz nights, everyone stares blankly when asked “Who is the Opposition Spokesman for Health?”. As if shuffling the front bench will change anything for Turnbull. If anything, it will be counter-productive because the inevitable comment will be “shuffling the deck-chairs on the Titanic”.
He could try coming up with just one policy though…
Oz
I don’t know if you have read this book yet but Lovelock’s latest “The Vanishing Face of Gaia” says we’re already stuffed.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/06/23/lovelocks-dire-vision/
But M’Lord, are they good at playing balls?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/sport/tennis/sets-appeal-beauty-aces-talent-at-wimbledon/2009/06/29/1246127478452.html
So we went around on a big circle with the ETS and came back to where we started:
The CPRS is good because the Government will later change its mind and it’s realise how bad it is.
Props to Penny Wong, she’s played you good.
Sadly, this is why neither Labor nor Liberal will implement any rational environmental policy.
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Quarry+vision%3a+coal%2c+climate+change+and+the+end+of+the+resources…-a0196383863
Diogenes, I’ve read Lovelock’s earlier stuff, but I tend not to read him now because he gives me nightmares.
He’s better at horror than Stephen King.
A little time for reflection.
Two years ago, the Bludgers were marching triumphantly under the banner of Kirribilli Removals towards the Sydney Lodge, finally triumphantly to remove the desperate claws of Hyacinth from the last door jamb. Now the Bludgers are a seasoned brigade, spotting the fires lit by the Born To Rules and their msm infantry, and extinguishing them with cascades of devastating analysis.
Two years ago, the Possum was chewing up and spitting out the hysterical analyses of polls. Now, two years older, stronger, with longer teeth, more data and spiffier graphs, he produces the evidence of his nightly raids with such authority that even the Main Stream Mice sit up and take notice.
Life is good.
JV, give up on Frank.
He’s too thick to grasp the fact that the only reason Labor is implementing any policy at all is because acting on climate change is a political boon, not suicide.
Viggo @579
Such (deserved) passion!
Some were even cavorting under Bushfires devastating critiques of Milne and Co,
Zooms rather clinical analysis of lib machinations
GG’s constructive criticisms
Scorpio scintillating scoops
etc etc
In other words many many worthies contributed to Howies downfall.
I don’t recall him objecting to these tactics when they helped him the Albert Park by-election.
What point are you making?
Gusface @ 582,
You’re right, of course. All credit where it’s due.
But somehow “Marching under the banner of Zooms rather clinical analysis of lib machinations” doesn’t sound quite as good / martial …
Labor treats the Greens with all the respect and consideration they deserve.
BTW
3 years ago, the number of Libs V labs was closer to parity,partly cos there was so few of us (you know who you are) taking it up to the libs.
In was only in Jan 2007 that the ranks of the forces of good started to swell.
I give glen heaps of credit for both his persipacacity but also his turning away from rank ignorance and attempting to debate coherently and factually.
Yawn.
That Foley was happy to win his by-election with the help of tactics that targetted the Greens, but doesn’t think other Labor candidates should be allowed to do what he did.
Well, how about ‘zooming Rudd Lodgewards courtesy of…’
no, doesn’t work for me either, despite vested interest.
There’s a difference between being happy and being silent.
Gee Gee
I’m person enough to admit I was WronG, regarding the Greens.
As you and frank have so stridently pointed out,they are kids in the playground when it comes down to realpolitik.
Bob has dirtied his copybookwith his “woe is me” shite–strike one
the greens intransgience and holier than thou attitude to CC is really rank–strike two
one more strike and and it be mandolins for bob and the greens
From a non-partisan general left sympathetic point of view, this commie-squabling is pretty boring. It’s always going to make headlines, and projects the idea that both the ALP and the Greens seem petty and less interested in the ideas they should be pursuing than guarding their own fiefdoms. And calls of ‘airy-fairy’ and ’sellout’ from one way or another make the callers look like morons, who obviously understand that there is more complexity involved, but are too arrogant or lazy to engage in a more nuanced critique.
gg, you mean like brown shirt?
Big call Pancho.
Care to elucidate further?
Just a general point. I’m sure most will admit that plenty of it goes on. It just seems to me that both parties would have more to gain from a semi cooption of the Greens as a leftist flank of the ALP than shouting at one another ‘you’re making deals with the Libs!’ or ‘you’re no different to the Libs!’/
There’s a difference between being in Parliament and not being in Parliament.
vp, like i said, we dont break news here at pb. We smash them
True. But it also seems to me that it would be strategically wise at this stage for the ALP to not go as hard at the Greens as they did previously in Vic, particularly when it looks as if they will be at least very close to balance of power upper house status in a few places in the near future. The tactic of just running them out of the left territory has increasingly been less successful, so dealing rather than bashing might be more fruitful.
It is, after all, the ALP who understands hard-headed realpoliticking.
Agree Psephos.
This is a totally hypocritical position for Foley to take given some of the unethical material Labor put out for his campaign.
Winston,
It’s lucky the electorate is largely immune to the whining of Greens and their supporters. Labor won fair and square. Build a bridge.
Ah, Armageddon! If it’s not Fielding’s evangelical religions (inc AOC) and their “Endtimes” and “The Rapture” (next coming to you in 2012, according to one blog) it’s virid greenies like Lovelock doing their human version of “We’re doomed!”
My first brush with Armageddon came from Japan; though, post VP Day (yes, I do remember it), fear of smallpox, TB and polio epidemics accompanying refugee floods soon replaced it (and smallpox vaccine, with its significant risks to juvenile eczema sufferers, nearly did for me). My second was that old fave “Hell Fire and Damnation” via fairly rabid missionaries (as is still happening). But, as vaccinations and anti-biotics wiped out one killer disease after another, we found another Armageddon precipitator…
USSR and USA and their neuks. How many bombs would it take to destroy the earth? Luckily, having survived the cure that wiped out smallpox, I also survived those hellish October 1962’s Armageddon Days (aka Cuban Missile Crisis) …
As, post CMC, nuclear war’s threat receded, Club of Rome’s “Limits to Growth” spread doom and gloom through overpopulation and overdemand on resources, and early climate change death by … (here insert ‘ice age’ and global ‘hothouse’), both of which, incidentally, Earth (like me and smallpox vaccine) had already survived. Greenies, a movement then (I was an active member) not yet a political party, were saving Sydney’s Colonial Heritage with Mundey, Cooloola Sands with Judith Wright, Tassie wilderness with Bob Brown etc, when …
……. BTW, here it must be added that “Death by Fire” and “Death by Ice” – both of which were there from the beginning – ought to have shifted the Image. WW II was receding to horror memories, myths and museums; Wagner was back & uni German courses set Nibelungenlied, reviving a more apt myth than Armageddon; Ragnarok – Death by Fire and Death by Ice – both present from the beginning; however …
Reagan’s Star Wars programme & USSR involvement in Afghanistan revived nuclear war; then Chernobyl and Three Mile Island “proved” there was no need to add “war” to “nuclear” for Armageddon to be upon us. As nuclear threat receded after the Berlin Wall fell (& the USSR had bled to death in Afghanistan), and …
We were back to “Death by global warming” and “Death by Global cooling”; but the “Hothouse” had been replaces by drought and deserts, rapidly rising oceans and mass extinctions from heat – never mind that most of those species had already survived the Last Great Hothouse – during the Mesolithic Era … Although it was not the only Armageddon situation, particularly after a few Hollywood asteroid blockbusters ..
Nearly 70, I’m thoroughly sick of Armageddon/ Ragnarok precipitators.
Earth (could we please use its name, not ‘planet’ all the time, since ‘planet’ describes a specific type of astronomical body and its behaviour, and astro-whatever scientists cringe when they hear it) is advancing through a warming stage. We are clogging up the atmosphere with very dangerous particulates, and with gases dangerous to Life on Earth, at the same time as we are felling the forests which neutralise the gases (only time and a significant drop in carbon burning removes particulates). That may potentially be a Doomsday scenario; then again, so might “The Rapture”, or a meteor strike, or a nuclear war – if you’re a believer.
In the last few years we have, however, found another Armageddon precipitator: The Large Hadron Collider and the “God particle”. For those who did not follow the links that circled the blogshpere at the time (tho not all that terrifying to us who survived Oct 62) here’s a link to the Times online list of “Apocalypse now? 30 days when the world didn’t end” http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/faith/article4717864.ece?token=null&offset=0&page=1
Great comments on the up-coming Coalition reshuffle!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/30/2611923.htm
Yes, it’s awful that the Victorian Government wants to win elections. That said, I guess Opposition would be appealing where you don’t have to take any responsibility, say what you like (or not) and collect the pay every month with no concern of losing your seat. Even more so when you’re in a safe seat like, say Albert Park… Good work Mr Foley.
Hopeless, truly hopeless
DIVISIONS are emerging among senior Liberals over an expected reshuffle of the federal Opposition, with frontbencher Christopher Pyne arguing against any change that could see him demoted.
Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull, under pressure following the OzCar debacle and facing slumping popularity, is expected to announce a new parliamentary line-up before parliament resumes in August to boost the Coalition’s attack.
Mr Turnbull’s approval rating plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent in yesterday’s Newspoll, while Labor extended its lead over the coalition.
Mr Pyne, a confidante of Mr Turnbull, has told the ABC “there’s no absolute necessity” for a reshuffle.
But his fellow South Australian frontbencher and factional foe Nick Minchin says the move is a necessity.
“We need to make sure we match up appropriately,” he said.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25711887-601,00.html
Yikes! sorry about the formating error
That was a very bold post
And also….you have to check the last sentence…where Pyne really sucks up to Malcolm.
Senior Libs divided over need for reshuffle
http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?ATL://1246323991987§ion=home&title=Senior+Libs+divided+over+need+for++reshuffle+
I think the very end of that article summarises what is wrong with the Liberals:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25711887-601,00.html
TP Pyne just doesnt want to lose his job
BB is just like WT…they both will only leave Parliament in a pine box…
Warren Truss?
Warren Truss too but i was thinking about Iron Bar….
I still think Turnbull just needs to hold a press conference where he announces all his MPs that will be 65 or over by late 2010 have told him they are retiring, and that he thanks them for their service to the nation.
Possum on Twitter
“@Pollytics: Bronwyn Bishop pushing for the front bench is a microcosm of nearly every problem the Libs currently have.”
They describe battle-axes as warhorses?
well showson that’s what id do if i were leader but we all know the level of authority MT has in the party now…
BB is a has been
PR is a has been
KA is a has been
WT is a has been
AS is a has been
PS is a has been
MW is a has been
need i go on we’re a bunch of has beens with a small talent pool, that does not bode well for us in the future.
She’s just making noise to fight off pre-selection challenges.
As I said before, the libs should be courting Windsor.
A total rebuild, plus grease and oil change, is the Minimim that is required to get the libs jalopy back on the road to electoral cred.
So Turnbull has a choice, he can keep pretending he has a chance to win the next election, or he can use up whatever political capital he has as leader by getting rid of all the Liberal dead wood.
That would increase the chance of whoever becomes leader after him winning the 2013 election.
It would actually be in his favour as most of the dead wood would support Tony Abbott in 2010 for a challenge after we lose the election so it is in his interest to push for a new gen of Libs to get into Parliament who will be greatful to Mr. T…
Glen, so who IS in the ‘talent pool’?
It should be a very short list, so it won’t take you long….
The BSD faction essentially…
Hunt
Keenan
Dutton
Bilson
Morrison
Smith
This is almost unbelievable that “ANY” Coalition Member can say this with a straight face and not be called on it. The polls “ARE” an indication of how electors would vote on the particular day that the poll is taken.
They know damn well that that is the case but must be banking on the electorate not to know that. Fat chance of that. especially now! Wishful thinking won’t make it go away. Only hard work and hard policies will change their fortunes. Again, fat chance.
http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx?ATL://1246323991987§ion=home&title=Senior+Libs+divided+over+need+for++reshuffle+
BTW, I love the way that the AFR set up their web pages so that when you highlight any of their articles to copy, they leave out every second word. I wonder how long before others come up with the same trick.
Glen, so who IS in the ‘cesspool’?
It should be a very smelly, 12 years is long enough and most of them are drip drip drip drippin already …………
who knows and who cares, we tories had own run for the past decade and a bit, its up to your lot now, there wont be many smiles on my side of the House for a bit id say…
It will shock my dear readers to know that, in my life in the ALP, I have sometimes found myself the victim of unfounded smear and innuendo from members of that august body.
I used to be puzzled by this, until I realised: if you want something somebody else has, you can either do the hard work they did to get it, or you can knife them and take it.
The Libs are obviously taking the second option at present.
I admit it’s quicker, but there’s no guarantee that you automatically step into the knife party’s shoes.
This Pyne quote makes me recall Stephen Colbert roasting George W. Bush at the correspondent’s dinner:
http://scottageb.blogspot.com/2006/04/full-text-of-stephen-colbert-monologue.html
Gerard Henderson has been closely following Glen’s posts on PB but differs with him in a couple of areas.
Henderson has been reasonably non-partisan and tends to present a more realistic picture of the Oppositions situation and where they need to move to improve their electoral stocks.
They don’t seem to take any notice of him though.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/new-blood-will-revive-coalition-20090629-d2ej.html?page=-1
To which Bush replied with the one genuinely funny remark I ever heard him make: “Hell, why can’t I have dinner with the 32% who like me?”
As I pointed out yesterday, the Liberals have quite a bad record at a state level over the last 25 years:
Bronwyn Bishop promised to do some heavy lifting, arrgh, what an ugly sight it will be.
Like this maybe?
http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2004/11/13/bronwynbishop_wideweb__430×305.jpg
This is becoming established mythology. In fact Abbott only performed *relatively* well. What he said was arrant nonsense, but at least he didn’t totally go to pieces like Hockey, or run for cover like Bishop, Robb and most of the others. He kept his nerve and tried to find a coherent line of attack, which you would have thought was a pretty minimal requirement for a senior front-bencher.
It’s why Liberals advocate getting rid of state governments
Henderson certainly agrees with Glen in relation to the shallow pool of talent in the Liberal Party at present. There’s “NO” way that Turnbull can realistically expect to just fall into government at the next election backed up by this lot.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/new-blood-will-revive-coalition-20090629-d2ej.html?page=-1
Herr doktor, i agree with you here. People Skills perceived to be doing well only in comparison to Pyne who did appallingly bad.
Anything above zero can be said “doing well”.
Do you mean Hockey? Pyne was out of the country for most of the week.
Henderson is spot on, just – “a strong front bench” – often overlooked and comes before “Rudd is a very able politician”
… and off the planet the rest of the time.
#636 – No, previous to last week, mostly when Pyne was the leader of the Opp. business in the House and his general performance in the media.
Psephos,
Shh! It’s supposed to be a secret.
I was referring to the Great Panic of last week, when Abbott was virtually the only Liberal frontbencher who didn’t appear to have wet his pants. We know from past experience that one thing Abbott does possess is *nerve*, and he showed that last week. What he doesn’t usually have is *judgement* to go with his nerve.
I have not been to Melbourne lately:
http://www.theage.com.au/national/yarras-unusual-visitors-cause-a-stir-20090629-d2jh.html
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25712656-29277,00.html
Dario
I’m pretty sure the final report will give Rudd several options, from no nothing to take it all over. There’s absolutely no way hospitals have gotten any better in the last 18 months, except they are better at faking the figures (although they get caught occasionally like in Vic and SA).
Rudd isn’t dumb enough to take over the State’s biggest problem. It would just buy him grief for however long he is in power.
Yes, I think he has fingers in enough pies at the moment anyway
Never under-estimate how many fingers Rudd has. Pies will always have more fingers in them under Labor.
I’d think that the GFC and Climate Change would provide enough challenges for even the most energetic PM. Although Obama is having a go at all three…
Still, remember how well HillaryCare worked out for Bill.
Hahahahaha
I would have thought Robb or Henderson would have their fingers in Pies?
If he wanted to take over Health, Rudd would need his heaviest hitter. Perhaps with IR bedded down now, Julia could swap IR for Health.
IMO the Commonwealth should only take over Health if they are going to really deal with it and that includes taking on major structural reform. Unless you can get fundamentally more money into the system it is insoluble. To do that means taking some existing money away from current wastes – private health profits, alternative medicine and various other quackery. Also you have to deal with areas of cost shifting like nursing home beds etc to stop hospital beds being clogged up. (Hope Dio agrees)
Socrates
All of that’s true but nursing home block is overstated as a cause for hospital stay. Only about 2% of beds are occupied by patients waiting for NH placement.
It’s the Problem from Hell and it’s going to require some serious pain for very vocal lobby groups with lots of clout.
http://www.watoday.com.au/breaking-news-national/rudd-left-nonplussed-by-lotto-question-20090630-d2q8.html
lol
In the same interview Rudd got stuck into the Courier Mail – leaving Madonna King spluttering – she did not defend her husband.
Really weird. Don’t know that it will take off though. If you can’t quote afr, why bother reading it?
How pathetic can you get. Michael Jackson’s father apparently has been spruiking his new record business venture at every media opportunity that he gets in relation to Wacko Jacko’s death.
It makes you also wonder about America’s addiction to fame and celebrities. If Wacko Jacko’s death is attracting these sorts of bizarre attentions.
Can you imagine what would happen if Obama was accidentally run over by the proverbial bus, afterall he is celebrity number one.
It can only happen in America.
Finnigans 656,
Which is one of the myriad of reasons I am here and not there
…. don’t think I’ve ever heard “It can only happen in Australia” 
Joe Jackson has been a parasite and child abuser (in an economic sense) for the past 50 years. If anyone is to blame for Jackson’s early demise (apart from himself) it’s his father.
juliem
Possibly, but you’d better take in the 1970’s rediscovered film “Wake In Fright” when it is re-released before you conclude the whole Aussie social construct is innocuous. I remember it well and it was over 30 years ago that I saw it – can’t wait to see it again. Best on the big screen. I will enjoy seeing it again because the first time the country theatre swapped reel 2 with reel 4, which increased its level of difficulty quite a bit.
“Wake In Fright” being re-released? I heard the only decent print had been damaged beyond repair. We live in hope: wonderful movie.
What about having the leader called “Kevin” and the biggest scandal of the year being about him getting a ute.
Only in Australia.
Why do I just know that Psephos is about to post a list of world leaders who’s first name was Kevin?
BB
It’s already been re-released I now notice.
Release details: Limited release – opens Sydney & Melbourne 25/6/09; Canberra 2/7/09; Adelaide & Brisbane 23/7/09.
Here’s David & Margaret’s review and the story og rediscovery
http://www.abc.net.au/atthemovies/txt/s2590361.htm
moi?
It’a going to be excruciating watching Pyne trying to talk himself up while Turnbull is mulling over the shadow shake-up.
Yeah, they stumbled on a copy in the US that was days from being binned…
Here is a description of the Republic of Molassia and its President Kevin Baugh
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Molossia
Here is a photo of President Kevin with a ute in the background
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mrjerz/2429026221/
I think that we need to ask how he came to be in possession of that vehicle.
My bet is that Turnbull will go for the minimal reshuffle option.
Dutton to Shadow Minister for Financial Services, Superannuation and Corporate Law.
Abbott to Health, and someone new to family and indigenous affairs.
My bet is that Turnbull will do whatever he is told.
Abbott wants a real man’s portfolio, not more girly stuff. So he should get IR, where Keenan has been invisible. That way Gillard get more practice with her gelding irons.
Another Airbus down: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8125664.stm
Shareholders,
For your perusal, an end of financial year polling summary.
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=5812
The good dr johnson on turnbull
“why,sir, the Nabob will carry an election by means of his wealth,in a country where money is highly valued,as it must be where nothing can be had without money; but if it comes to personal preference, the man of family will always carry it”
To be fair to Abbott he was the only one who remembered he was in parliament and he hunted for a political out, the rest thought they were in a court of law.
Musrum
It says that most of the passengers were French or Comoran. The French must be getting a but paranoid about air travel.
And I’m not sure this airline official has helped a lot, unless he thought the plane was a boat.
My bet is that the new cabinet will have some old hands up front specifically to keep Turnbull on a short leash.
I note our Green friends are resorting to PRTSONAL Attacks again – How predikctable and hypocritical, if I had made such a comment they would be crying like spoilt little children and William would snip my comments.
And Gusface is right about the Greens 110%
Interesting.
On the four o’clock news on the ABC. Apparently, the AFP does not need any more records from the Opposition. They are treating Mr Turnbull “as a witness.”
I wonder what he saw.
Adam we want IR to be invisible that is why Keenan is doing such a good job.
Last thing we want is to put Abbott in IR as you will say we’re going to bring in WC mark II…
Having a rookie in IR shows we arent going to do a thing on IR in future and make it a non issue…
If anything Abbott should get Finance and Coonan should be dumped but it wont happen as MT needs Coonan so maybe his old stomping ground in Health or Immigration as we’re going to need a hard head in that portfolio seeing as the people smugglers have taken a liking to Rudd’s soft approach to board protection…
Immigration would be my choice for Tony.
Slaps forehead… Of course!… Turnbull has no family.
Neither did Howard, Costello, or Nelson. You had to go back to Downer to find family.
Some people would chose emmigration.
very droll
“Abbott to Health, and someone new to family and indigenous affairs.”
Tony People Skills up against Roxon again? Ouch!
Do we need to report Nicola to the RSPCA?
Last thing we need is People Skills stirring up refugee hysteria again.
Good for our base mind…
Glen
Perhaps a link or somesuch to prove that assertion.
Otherwise you are lying!
Glen if you think you’re going to sneak through the election without mentioning IR you are very wrong.
Sample ALP advert:
* Dark rumbly music from Wagner, picture of scowling Turnbull with horns and smoke coming from nostrils*
“These people tried to reduce you to slavery before, and they’ll do it again. Don’t give them another chance!”
Glen “Last thing we want is to put Abbott in IR as you will say we’re going to bring in WC mark II…”
Doesn’t matter who the Coalition puts in IR, “WC mark II” will be brought in. After all, the Liberals have been going around crying “Whitlam, Whitlam,” when most gen X can’t remember and Gen Y weren’t born. But they remember WC II only too well. So suffer!
Yes, People Skills, that well known christian, would have not the slightest hesitation in exploiting those less fortunate for political advantage.
Part of the negative, and most of the black and white separation masters were found in a shipping container in Philadelphia.
yes, only in Australia that we had “corruption” over:
* a paddington bear
* a colour TV
* slow boat to china
* a fax & a 5min phone call
* an old beaten ute
plus whatever else i have missed
“Good for our base mind…”
Yeah, lowest common denominator politics has been going real well for conservatives all round the world. Do you think the yellow peril or an anti-arab crusade would work better this time Glen? Gallant stuff, well played old chap!
Adam the only thing i can see us doing for IR in the next election is say we’ll protect or reintroduce the ABCC if we win
nothing else on IR mind that is why we dont want a bigger name in the portfolio 
What! Your mob isn’t even going to rustle up another “union bosses” based scare campaign?
It’s not like the Liberals have any policies, so they will need something to talk about during the campaign.
Glen, it doesn’t matter what *you* say. It matters what *we say about you.* And we are going to nail you to a large crucifix called WorkChoices and parade you around the country in the back of a ute.
Yes Adam i realise you’ll want to cover up for all your failures with a scare campaign but why should i deride that because when we win again we’ll do the same thing to you…it’s what’s called being in government.
Still using WC all the time will look lame and eventually people will look through it.
psephos
Literally??
cos i dont think the electoral act allows actual cwucifixion
(even if it is glen)
WC should be good to campaign on for at least 4 more elections…up to and including 2019 at least. Thanks Howey…thanks Pete.
Just like the union bosses scare campaign at the last election.
The longer term problem for the Liberals is that it is turning into a party that has most of its support in the 55 and over demographic.
Agree
Agree
ShowsOn is making good points
eventually scare campaigns will not work.
Bloggin PB on your mobile, anywhere, anytime and anyplace.
Gusface @ 697
“cos i dont think the electoral act allows actual cwucifixion”
WOWSERS
Scare campaigns work just fine, when they are based on things people are actually scared of. The 1993 scare campaign on the GST worked a treat. The 2007 scare campaign on union bosses flopped because no-one under 50 remembers what a union boss is. But they all knew what WorkChoices was. And they’ll still know what WorkChoices was in 2010, and if they’ve forgotten we’ll remind them.
Imagine how much more of a demographic problem the Libs would have if Calwell had won in `61 and the people who vote Liberal because the latter Menzies years and the Holt year(s) were good and nothing has changed their opinion since, would be more likely to be Labor voters because there would have been Labor good years around the time they became politically aware and started voting.
On DW-TV The Journal show, it just said that Angela Merkel is opposed to tax cuts, because Germany is in its worst recession for 30 year.
I thought real conservatives think that tax cuts can cure any economic problem, including recessions?
Gus, #967 – i thought there was two crucifixions last week?
One by Turnbull on Rudd and then Rudd on Turnbull. Afterall we are a Christian country.
Glen on PM Agenda Marr from the SMH, Gilbert and Gratton were talking about whether Abbott would be made immigration minister to try stirring up hysteria about the refugees arriving by boat. They seemed to think this tactic would not produce the same results as it did 8yrs ago
And Joe Hockey against himself.
Kev live on Apac at 6pm
How to run a business using OPM and get away with it all. Who do you trust to protect you when you go bankrupt? Your discretionary trust, of course.
There is a lesson here for all you young entrepreneurs.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/groves-put-millions-in-mystery-trust-asic-20090630-d3gb.html
Well for one, Labor is now in government, and will be able to control the message
Gratton said Abbott wouldn’t be wasted on Immigration
she said he should be given something more important so he would be seen every day by the public. I’d like to see that 
The leadership?
When will it dawn on the Rabble that the way to win back the Treasury Benches is to develop alternative policy?
They deride the Labor “policy wonks” yet that is exactly what they need.
Poor Peter.
Nah, all they have to show is that Rudd is a phoney, hypocritical, religious nerd, who’s so cheap he keeps a ute lent to him three years ago, who can’t even get Bazza McKenzie quotes right and who’s wife is a rich, fat bimbo who works out at the gym.
That’ll do it.
Rudd being elected is a problem for him?
Excellent comment by Rob of Stanmore on hanahan’s blog:
Quite apt.
The people are always sicker under a liberal government
MHS to go?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/30/2612676.htm?section=australia
Surely to be a witness, you have witnessed something. I thought Turnbull was relying on the Senate Committee and was Sgt Schultz on the email?
Just listening to PM and Joe Hockey has said that the Rudd Government had a case for not introducing the latest tax cuts, that the previous Liberal Government gave away too much in terms of middle class welfare and that he thinks the Libs should have built a bigger surplus to protect the economy in difficult times.
GG
Hockey has uttered blaspemy – well its truth but its Rabble blasphemy – I thought Malcolm wanted tax cuts as the answer to everything?
Kev’s running late for his CC, the choir sang ‘Believe it or Not’ and were waiting to sing the national anthem but were sent off stage until Kev turns up. C’mon Kev, folks’ will be unhappy being kept waiting! Swanny just arrived, 20 mins late now is Kev… OK he just arrived
Are there two Joe Hockeys?
Hockey has been reading PB again, it seems!
Kev just sang happy birthday to Swanny
Amigo Vera, your sexy boy gets a birthday sing song, slightly off key from the Ruddster. He should stick to his day job of managing this country.
Julia is back to kick arsk, the country is safe again.
Hockey is paraphrasing Abbott’s magic pudding line.
Could there be a Hockey – Abbott dream team (or dreaming team) being constructed?
Can the community cabinet be seen on TV? I only have free to air.
And from Twitter:
Don’t tell me that John Grant pops out of the cake.
Gus, The journos are always more and more sick under Labor.
Steve K you can watch on your computer here
http://www.a-pac.tv/
Thanks Vera!
Vera, I’m tuned in. A thousand thanks.
There will always be more birthday cakes under Labor
No worries Steve
Dont say I never entertain Melbourne
http://www.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,6694850,00.jpg
739
Just to annoy Hewson.
Finns you’re looking almost as sexy as swannie
Vera, yes, it’s hard to be humble
Shut-up Kevin, let the Q&A begins
Yeah Kev said “I won’t talk long…” and he’s still going on and on..
and on and on
Oh joy, live-to-air Kevin.
Or is this Kevin-to-the-node?
…and Kevin slaps down the CEC troll!! LOL!
Our Greens friends here at PB got a question in.
Bill Shorten is getting a lot of air time
Conroy asked about Broadband…
When are Carers going to shut up? They get more money than anyone on a Govt. benefit.
Stephen Conway, 100Mbps is NOT the state of the art!!! Try 2Gbps.
oooops, Conway = Conroy
Ru, another carer.
Carer payment $575
Carer allowance $105
Allowances $20
$700 a fortnight. In sept it will be $765 plus $23 in extra carer only supplements.
That is almost $400 a week – yet they still whinge.
Methinks GP just asked a question.
A uni student asking why she didn’t get any stimulus payment, because she would have spent it all.
Rudd flips it over to Swannie.
Everything will ALWAYS BE HIGHER under Labor!!!!!! So said the PM
761
Except interest rates Fins
LOL! ABC News interviewed a woman from the Communist Party concerning tonight’s Lotto draw.
And what was her response ? That it was a threat to the community ?
She just says that if the Communist Party wins the $90 million, they will use it for campaigning which “costs money”.
She said that Lotto prizemoney should be distributed equally among everyone who bought a ticket.
766
Ha ha. Then the state gets to keep the 15% (or whatever) tax on the proceeds.
And the politburo receives 5% to ensure the lottery adheres to revolutionary principles.
Well, I bought a ticket. And I promise to adhere to revoloutiary principles if I win.
How would you be? better than winning lotto.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/30/2612946.htm?section=justin
Apparently the Lotto jackpot is now $106 million.
Vera #770, The French newspaper, Le Figaro, is reporting that the survivor is a child
Scarpat, thanks, just saw that on BBC world news
Results:
http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/3884/lottom.jpg
Australia +0.4% Vs UK -2.4%. Now you know you live in a lucky country that wins the Lotto every night.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8125898.stm
Showy, do you get to win the girl as well?
Unfortunately yes.
bummer
no need to get personal
Does 5 out of 7 Lotto numbers win anything?
so what were the numbers?
Yes.
3,12,29,38,40
12 3 38 21 23 29 40 | 43 22
BB, what about 7 out of 7? Is that good?
No, that means you have to pay someone $106 million.
I managed to get 4, which I guess means I won about $15.
Another bummer
well, i suppose i better burn my ticket then
Luck has nothing to with it. It is all due to the towering genius of KEVIN and WAYNE and don’t anyone forget it. Australia has been saved by two guys from Nambour called KEVIN and WAYNE.
Herr Doktor, no need to got carried away.
Heck yeah!
Same here ShowsOn.
Last draw 5 numbers got $41. 4 numbers got $20.90
Not a sausage, bludgers, so no free drinks from me.
Any idea what we get? I think last week it was $20.
Greed is good!
woah! Hockey goes for a headline…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/30/2612915.htm?section=justin
Joe says that he is off to climb Mount Kilimanjaro. Sounds like he has been doing his training on the road to Damascus.
I smell a leadership tilt.
A good article here by Glen’s friend, Malcolm Fraser.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/peace-is-our-best-defence-20090628-d17h.html?page=-1
I think the old Germ has got something here. Bless her H1V1 and she likes them young anyway.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2009/jun/26/michael-jackson-death-in-la
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/30/2612915.htm?section=justin
The Libs have just woken up to the fact that if they hadn’t gone in so hard on insisting on “tax cuts” instead of the stimulus package, that they might have had a chance if Rudd pulled them off the counter, to pull a Keating on Rudd. ie Another “LAW” Law tax cut fit-up.
Me thinks that they underestimate our Kevvie somewhat. The old stunts are no longer viable, Libs. Report Card- must try harder!
Really, though, it’s hard to fathom what is going on in their fevered little minds nowadays!
Much as it pains me, The Finns, I reckon Germaine is speaking out her rear end. What a stupid statement is the last sentence you’ve quoted? Absolutely meaningless.
Scorpio, I think that feverish is quite apt. The opposition was against the stimulus overall. Now, through Hockey, they are saying that tax cuts was not the way to go either. Where does that leave them in the mind of the voter as far as any economic policy is concerned.
I think I might have caught Hockey out here.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/a-promise-not-worth-keeping-20090630-d3qr.html?page=-1
You mean that their are times that Germaine DOESN’T speak out of her rear end. Whilst it is fair to say that Jackson was a good dancer – where was the innovation? The moondance has been around forever.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxZcLWAmdco
Tom
Harry, Germaine is probably hoping by saying such profound things that some one will reciprocate when she falls off the cliff and says similar meaningless drivel about her.
Tom, scorpio, you guys, such insight. Would you turn up to my wake and lie about me?
Seems a fair comment to say that MJ and a lot of what surrounded him was pretty surreal. And all the linked dancing ain’t like this: http://ta-nehisicoates.theatlantic.com/archives/2009/06/remembering_the_time.php. Some other interesting reflections of him on that blog too.
He’s stalking Therese!
Gittens has a hide trying to pin this on Rudd though. It was he and his cohorts in the media which ran the Coalition line with nary a line about “automatic stabilisers” and the Budget returning to balance whether under Costello, Rudd or whoever!
Why, now? Maybe to try and fit in with the Coalition’s new narrative of “fiscal conservatives” and traditional brilliant economic managers! Bit late for that now!
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/a-promise-not-worth-keeping-20090630-d3qr.html?page=-1
I wonder if Womens Day will print a heap of photos of Big Joe working out at the Gym?
What a sight that would be. Joe in tights!
You are bad people. This is a time for the living to speak kindly of the dead and, for (just previously,) the (now) dead to speak truthfully about what they leave behind.
I’m taking notes!
Gittens isn’t fitting in with any narrative. He has frequently called the Coalition’s scare campaign against debt idiotic.
Are they giving themselves time to talk Cossie into staying?
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/more-time-for-higgins-nominations-20090630-d3lq.html
Luv it. Days of Lives has nothing on the libs
We want cossie, we want cossie, we want cossie
Hockey’s a great Shadow Treasurer. He basically said that Rudd should have canned the three tranches of tax cuts for the benefit of the economy during a recession, BUT, the Libs would have voted against canning them anyway.
What DO they stand for except obstructionism which is their version of opposition. I thought they were elected to “work for” the people of Australia. Not to further their own selfish interests (power for powers sake) and the rest of us be damned.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/30/2612915.htm?section=justin
C’mon Cossie, have a go you mug!
Apparently (accord to JTI) the deadline has been extended to enable the other candidates to prepare campaigns in the absence of Cozzie.
I can’t see the man coming back. It’s the Prime Ministership he wants, not leader of the Hopeless Party. He ain’t gunna get the former and therefore doesn’t want the latter.
Since we all spend a lot of time getting annoyed at phone and internet companies and being refered to someone in Bangalore when things go wrong and waiting for hours getting no service, let me record that this evening my internet began running very slowly, so I rang the Bigpond helpline. I got straight through to a very nice young man in the Philippines who took me through the process of resetting my password and doing something mysterious to my modem, being very patient with my complete ignorance of what all the flashing light and code names etc mean, and restored my service to full speed in 15 minutes. Courteous, prompt and efficient service is such a rarity that I thought I should mention it when it happens. Well done Bigpond.
You gotta hand it to Joe. He sure can offer a confusing convoluted mix of non policy and strategy!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/06/30/2612915.htm?section=justin
The next six weeks will be fun watching them try and plug the holes in the SS Liebral aka Titanic.
Hockey also says that Rudd *must* take over the hospitals from the states. Whatever happened to the party of states’ rights? What do the state Liberals think about this?
I think this might be a good time to put the Bludgers to the test officially, by predicting the Libs leader at the election. Note: Not next leader, they could change again after that lol.
I’m tipping Andrew Robb. And before you all rush in to select Abbott, remember the polls had him 4th pick behind Turnbull.
vera, you weren’t kidding when you said you were a cow
Bushie, there’s no way Costello will take it on. I’ve never understood why people have thought Costello would take on the leadership. He’s not interested in something that’s not handed to him on a plate. For a job well done obviously. Dollar sweets
anyone?
Turnbull is monumentally flawed. He’s no politician and he’s got a fundamentally divided party behind him.
I give up!, the last time it took a 730hrs snapshot of comments, ran my filter = @#$!
Still have no idea what you’re doing
Embarking on next project ….
This one isn’t impressed
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/breaking-news-national/pm-should-take-over-hospitals-hockey-20090630-d2o1.html
Centre, Mooooo!
Psephos @821 – you got a new job?
While we’re being honest (and the hatred remains) can I put on the record that after a horror period, I disconnected my Optus services. This took 4 phonecalls, about 16 transfers, and 2 and a half hours of my life. After several hours long calls trying to sort problems where the service seemed to be running interference, trying to frustrate you out of following through with whatever you were trying to do.
I also have a couple of less tech savvy older friends who independently signed up to Optus deals which kindly allows the user to run a couple of gb over their limit before a speedcap kicks in. Each received a monthly bill of around $800 for their $50 p/m plan.
…rant out.
Admire the loyalty; admonish the reasoning. Friends don’t let friends use Telstra Bigpond!
My phone account has been with Optus for 15 years and I’ve never had any problems with them.
Why not? It came with the apartment, it seems OK to me.
Please, please check out Internode. Or, failing that, “Dagger To the Guts Internet” does a better deal.
But, to many in the libs he is the messiah.
Thought you were with Optus?
If it works for you, good. Bur really, would you recommend it to your friends?
I don’t think we can speculate on the Liberal leadership until the AG/AFP report on emailgate is in. If there is an adverse finding on Turnbull, there will be a new leader. If there isn’t, he may well survive, faut de mieux.
Absolutely amazing times, Psephos. Can’t wait for the next exciting episode. West Wing ? Meh.
My mobile phone is with Optus, because my first mobile came as part of an employment package that included an Optus account, and I’ve stayed with them ever since out of inertia.
My landline was with Telstra because it was originally with Telecom, and I never bothered changing it. I don’t have a landline phone any more, but when I got this apartment it had an ADSL connection already here and it seemed easier to stay with Telstra.
I couldn’t recommend any phone or internet company to anyone because I have no way of knowing which is better than which. In both cases, I pay my bills, the service works, what more can I say?
Yeah but who would want to put up their hands???
I don’t see a leader among our front bench to be frank….
What’s Frank got to do with it?
There won’t be an adverse finding on Turnbull. To do so would cast the AFP in an even more unfavourable light than they currently bask.
I agree that our speculation on the leadership of the Liberals is immaterial.
Off now to the French-English dictionary to weigh “faut de mieux”. May be a while.
In all seriousness Glen, you make a good point.
How does this follow?
Where I live, I don’t have a choice. If I want broadband, I must use Telstra Bigpond Cable. The fastest guaranteed ADSL service I can get at my house is 256K (i.e. 0.25 Mbps). My Cable connection varies between 5 and 7 Mbps.
You can change over very easily to other ADSL providers these days. There would be many that would offer you a faster service for less money than Telstra.
Night, Bludgers.
No need to say anything. If I can’t convince you that there are better service providers out there, then I’ll (quietly) reconsider my provider. No equity this end.
Plus no body on our front bench really wants to be PM as much as Mr. T so unless the AFP finds a whole load of stuff on MT then he’ll probably stay on…
Our parliamentary team isnt hungry enough for victory because if they were we’d already have policies out by now…
2 winners
Flaneur, you will be quicker if you look up ‘faute de mieux’…
I’m very hard to persuade about this kind of stuff, because I have no desire to know anything about it. When I bought my new iPhone, the 17yo Chinese kid in the shop showed me about 10 different plans, all offering various combinations of phoning six friends at 3 in the morning for five months or five friends at 6 in the morning for three months. I said I want the cheapest plan that lets me call whoever I like whenever I like, and he looked at me funny and said “O…K…” very slowly.
I switched from Telstra to IINET, better service, cheaper phone, no line rental, ADSL and bigger limit than Telstra for less money,Telstra are pricing themselves out of the market on Internet stuff.
Expensive,slow,low limits on up and down loads and a lot more.
Yes, it is faute de mieux. But I would have thought a real flaneur would speak French anyway.
Do they have nice operators in the Philippines who fix your problems at 10 at night?
How does this follow?
]
In the last of the Howard years, Mick Kelty made, IMO, a reasonable assessment of our involvement in Iraq (vis a vis terrorists in Australia). He subsequently changed his rhetoric, which could reasonably be assumed to be at the instigation of the previous Government.
For the AFP to be cast in the role of a Government supporter (albeit a differerent Government) is reasonable grounds to question there professionalism.
Cruel, but fair. On the other hand, have you ever spoken to a *real* flaneur? The answer is obvious.
The AFP should report what they find, regardless of whether it suits anyone’s political agenda. I’m surprised I should have to say that. I actually think they’ll find that Turnbull genuinely thought the email was real, but that he failed to take any steps to verify whether it was.
Ersatz salesmen. In my day…
Adam he thought he won the lottery lol!
He should have checked his numbers more closely…
I wonder if Rudd and Co will keep up the Turnbull must resign mantra when Parliament resumes???
“Neither” is currently the preferred Liberal leader according to an AdelaideNow poll:
First statement correct. Second statement: where have you been the last two decades?
“And we’ve just heard that the new Liberal leader is the Hon None of The Above.”
Are you accusing the AFP of being corrupt?
Mo. Are you?
860
Libs so desperate they offer Meg Lees the leadership.
Well, Chapman won’t be able to remain MHS’s deputy. So after Saturday there will either be a new leader and deputy, or just a new deputy. Either way, it is a terrible look just 9 months out from an election.
Since there are 22 Liberals, I’m hoping both candidates receive 11 votes, and then have to decide the leadership using a coin flip.
Err, s/Mo/No/, just for the record.
Um, yes it does Joe. You’re an idiot.
Glen, it all depends on whether Turnbull does the right thing and resigns before the next sittings. The obvious advantage of Turnbull acting properly for once is that nobody will have to give him good ideas anymore.
Hockey is a fool. Take note especially of the last three paragraphs.
If the opposition treasury spokesman can’t even interpret a graph correctly how could they be trusted with government.
The US election is finally done:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/us/politics/01minnesota.html?_r=1&hp
Cossie’s new job?
For those hoping to lure him back to head those Canberra losers, there’s a great job or two in the offing: the terms of Howard appointees are coming to an end and there’s these:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25716319-5013871,00.html
Although PK might be in the running.
Steve K @869 wrote
Or maybe he’s had his Damascene moment and has decided to cut Howard loose; to “Tell the truth and shame the devil.” Thanks to Mal Turn Bull-in-a-china-shop efforts, and his old mate Kev’s continuing popularity, Election 10/11 is a lost cause; besides, he doesn’t want the job while his kids are still young & he’s still coaching kid-sport.
BTW” Are he and Therese climbing Mt K in the same expedition? Used to be great mates until Howard ordered him not to be. I guess we’ll know if he shrinks to his youthful size (2nd from the LHS) http://www.joehockey.com/meetjoe/default.aspx
We want pix of sexy Joe in his work-out in the Gym.
Media round-up for today
- Federal Government looking to use external affairs power to pass laws banning the reintroduction of the death penalty. Opposition not in agreement to use the external affairs power. WA Attorney-General (Mr Porter) states that he doesn’t think it appropriate for Canberra to legislate on ’state-based issues’.
- Self-trained climate ‘realist’ David Archibald seeks pre-selection for WA Liberal Party Senate ticket. 3 sitting senators have renominated (Senators Cormann, Adams and Back). Others to nominate include Hyden farmer Jane Mouritz and businessman Jonathon Huston.
- Greens leader (Senator Bob Brown) ‘ridicules’ Professor Tim Flannery for suggesting they vote for the CPRS legislation as a ‘first step’. Family First leader (Senator Fielding) says that Government has yet to prove man-made carbon dioxide emissions were the main driver of global warming.
- New tax laws on employee share schemes to take effect from today, although the Government is yet to reveal their detail.
- ‘Opposition leadership contender’ (Mr Hockey) appears to distance himself from Howard legacy by pointing out ‘reasonable criticisms’ of past policy. It is believed neither Mr Hockey nor any other candidate would have sufficient support to replace Mr Turnbull as leader.
- South Australian Opposition leader (Mr Hamilton-Smith) calls leadership spill. Deputy Leader (Ms Chapman) appears to be only other person contesting leadership. Biggest donor to the party threatens to cut flow of funds if Mr Hamilton-Smith is not retained as leader.
- Opposition Treasury spokesman (Mr Hockey) proposes a guarantee on top-rate residential and commercial martgage-backed securities in an attempt to free up borrowing market for smaller banks and to replace the ‘dead’ Rudd Bank.
- Former ALP leader, Kim Beazley, to be appointed chancellor to the council of the Australian War Memorial
- International tradespeople will have to pass tougher English language tests from today under changes to the skilled migration visa scheme. Works on 457 visas to have an increase to minimum salaries of 4.1%
- The Prime Minister (Mr Rudd) has side-stepped questions on ‘ute-gate’ by attacking the Courier Mail
- The Prime Minister (Mr Rudd) holds a community cabinet in Beenleigh, Queensland
- Telecard is no longer in use by federal MPs from today.
- Figures released by the NT Education department are being used to suggest Federal Government welfare quarantine provisions are ‘goading some parents into sending their children to school more often’.
- Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries calls for governments to not rush into setting mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions from new cars.
- Chairman of WA Waste Authority (Barry Carbon) provides evidence to Legislative Council committee on the government’s ‘largely discredited landfill levy increase’ described as ‘yet another body blow for beseiged Environment Minister Donna Faragher.
itep @ 874 wrote
Maybe we’ll look at UteGate as Rudd’s No more Mr Nice Guy moment. After all, how much more negative can NewsLtd, SBS and the ABC get after their post-Dec 2006 / post-24 Nov 07 / 4 -25 June 09 performances? Two & a half years of almost never a good spin on a PM & his Government with stellar public opinion ratings? Whatever happened to that adage of political survival: “The King is dead. Long live the King!”?
So MK now equal-bottoms Kev’s “appear of his/her show for interview” list with a few ABC & NewsLtd journos! Suck it up, Sweetheart!
What a delight to have Geraldine Doogue hosting Breakfast on Radio National! Her professionalism and easy manner show. Even Michelle Grattan seemed more relaxed / forthcoming with her than she is on The Fran Kelly Show.
Fran Kelly, with her “this is my show attitude” and sensationalising approach, is more suited to ABC Local Radio or a commercial station. I find her reading of the weather irritating: “You in Melbourne will have…” – I don’t live in Melbourne!. I don’t think she has ever heard of Alice Springs; she keeps calling it “The Alice.” I wonder why she’s away: gardening leave, I hope.
I agree, I thought Doogue was much more professional, although her interview with Gillard was a bit soft.
Adam the real issue is is that Kevin was a fool for accepting a ute for free use during his campaign when he’s a multi-millionaire???
Adam i am now of the opinion that MT will stay on until the next election.
My main basis for this view is that nobody in the Coalition wants to be PM as much as MT none of them want to be leader and none of them aspire for high office the front bench are a whole lot of 2IC’s….
For better or worse (more likely) MT will continue to lead us.
It’s quite hilarious looking at the conservative blogs ATM. There are well and truly wedged on “emailgate”.
Half think Turnbull is completely dead politically and will lead them to a crushing loss, and needs to be replaced by Cossie (or even Howie!!!).
The other half say “utegate” was won by Turnbull and he will be vindicated by the AG and AFP, and that it’s the end of Rudd and Swan’s credibility. Of course, the email was faked by the Labor Party and only a corrupt AFP won’t discover that as the AFP is the Gestapo of the Labor Party.
Why do conservatives have so many problems with accepting reality?
Dio my view does not concur with that of ‘conservative’ blogs…
MT made a fool of himself.
MT made a rookie error.
MT probably did nothing illegal.
MT is the only one on our front bench who wants to be PM.
All of our front bench is made up of 2IC’s
= MT until 2010 at least
= ALP get a free ride in the Senate for fear of a DD
= losers are the Australian people with weak policy being forced through because the Libs are currently a joke
Glan @878:
Poppycock.
Turnbull is richer than Rudd and he had the “Wentworth Forum” to funnel money into his election campaign, at $5,000 per membership (about what the ute cost). He gave a donor to (and simultaneously officeholder of) that “Forum” a $10 million grant for a crackpot rainmaking contraption. I have yet to see any criticism at all against Turnbull for collecting donations to help with his re-election, and only very little criticism of his $10 million scam grant to a “mate”.
The reason these wealthy politicians have “forums” and donors to their campaigns is that it takes the heat off the lower downs who are running shoestring electoral operations. If you are going to means-test a politician’s wealth before allowing him or her to accept donations, then there is no end to it.
Donations are a part of political life. There are rules that regulate them and declarations have to be made regarding them. It is the job of the leaders and wealthier politicians to set an example by accepting donations, otherwise the whole system falls apart. Next thing you’ll be saying well-off politicians shouldn’t be taking a salary, or that Rudd should pay rent on The Lodge, or pay for a first class airline ticket on VIP jets. If he earnt a little less then the public purse would stump up more. It’s ridiculous and you know it Glen.
Sheesh!
* If you want to ban all donations, in cash or kind, to politicians and political parties, making them totally dependent on public funding, that is a legitimate position. Is that your view?
* If not, you have to explain why it is more foolish for Rudd to accept a second-hand car as a campaign donation than it was for the Libs to accept a million dollar donation from Lord Ashcroft. Both donations were legal and correctly declared to the public. Neither John Grant nor (so far as I know) Lord Ashcroft asked for or got anything in return.
* If it’s your view that candidates who are personally wealthy cannot accept campaign donations, you will need to explain how that could be turned into legislation. What would the cut-off be? How would a candidate’s wealth be determined? Would the wealth of their spouse, parents, siblings be taken into account? I think it would lead to serious invasions of privacy and endless litigation.
P.S. My only complaint about Rudd not addressing the “Rich PM = No Donations Allowed” rubbish is that he fought Turnbull on the evidence, but not the substantive point of ethics. He ignored the ethics because he had a reverse gotcha! due to the emails being faked. In the debates during the week he should have defended the system of donations as healthy, as long as the rules are reasonable and are followed.
Turnbull visits troops in Afghanistan. He needed to get out of the line of fire here in Oz.
Adam also Kevin really didnt need to campaign in his seat, it is a safe one mind.
Oh OK, so now you’d means test donations according to the safety or otherwise of the seat?
You’ve gone looney, Glen. Go over to Pies’ Blog if that’s the best you can offer.
Hey Dio, can you link a couple of these blogs? I’m interested in getting a ‘wider’ range of views…
Psephos
I think there’s a lot to be said for politicians being dependent on public funding, as McCain was in the US.
BTW Are donations to political parties tax-deductable in Oz? If they are, they shouldn’t be.
BB no im just saying Kevin really didnt need the ute, i mean seriously his seat is safe and at least it would have left him closed to any attacks as were made by MT.
Hartigan on at the press club
BTW Dio
Nothing wrong with healthy deabte on the righties blogs
Ive even been known to post a view or two
(we want cossie! or alternatively howie forever!)
hehehe
If those are conservative blogs what does that make pollbludger then?
Glen, you’ve switched your brain off today
Glen – surely there has to be one rule for all pollies , rich or not so rich. Many of your young pollies would be in dire straits if donation rules were made more stringent.
MtAA bloke said they lend vehicles to pollies from all parties for campaigning.
How do we know that Rudd doesn’t give away most of his allowances, plus more, to people or organisations in his electorate. He only needs to say – “so what, I’ve got a ute and I hope car dealers can help out a lot of other pollies because they have enormous calls on their time and funds”.
I’d love to see Kev and Julia driving along in the ute next year