An unprecedented triple whammy of opinion polls is disastrous enough for the Coalition to lend force to Dennis Shanahan’s assertion that “Malcolm Turnbull’s political career has been smashed in just one week”. In turn:
• Arriving a day earlier than usual, Newspoll shows that the Coalition recovery detected a fortnight ago has come to a sudden end, with Labor’s lead back out from 53-47 to 56-44. The parties have also exchanged three points on the primary vote, Labor up to 44 per cent and the Coalition down to 37 per cent. However, the real shock is that Turnbull’s personal ratings have suffered what Shanahan calls “the single biggest fall in the survey’s 25-year history”: his approval rating has plunged from 44 per cent to 25 per cent, while his disapproval is up from 37 per cent to 58 per cent. Fifty-two per cent do not believe that John Grant received preferential treatment from the Prime Minister against only 24 per cent who do. Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 57-25 to 65-18.
• ACNielsen, which is hopefully back to monthly polling as we enter the second half of the term, has Labor’s two-party lead up from 53-47 to 58-42. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 46 per cent while the Coalition’s is down six to 37 per cent. Fifty-three per cent say the OzCar affair has left them with a less favourable impression of Malcolm Turnbull, whose approval is down 11 points to 32 per cent with his disapproval has shot up 13 points to 60 per cent. Turnbull comes third as preferred Liberal leader with 18 per cent, behind Peter Costello on 37 per cent and Joe Hockey on 21 per cent. Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is up from 64-28 to 66-25, and his approval rating is up three points to 67 per cent.
• Galaxy has Labor’s primary vote up a point to 44 per cent and the Coalition’s down two to 30 per cent. Sixty-one per cent believe Kevin Rudd has been open and honest about the OzCar affair, while 51 per cent “believed Mr Turnbull had been dishonest or somewhat deceitful”.
Once again, Victoria dominates the latest round of electoral news:
• The Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters has tabled two major reports which I haven’t got round to sinking my teeth into: the regular conduct of the federal election report, and that into the Commwealth Electoral (Above-the-Line Voting) Amendment Bill 2008.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that complicated quarreling in the Victorian ALP has thrown up “rogue challengers” against at least ten state MPs. Keilor MP George Seitz, who faces enforced retirement in the wake of the Victorian Ombudsman’s report into Brimbank City Council, is said to be largely reponsible: Andrew Landeryou at VexNews identifies his state nominees as Tomislav Tomic (against Bundoora MP Colin Brooks), Seeralan Arumugam Gunaratnam (Carrum MP Jenny Lindell), Raymond Congreve (Lara MP John Eren), Rosa Mitrevski (Mill Park MP Lily D’Ambrosio), Philip Cassar (Mordialloc MP Janice Munt), Teodoro Tuason (Narre Warren North MP Luke Donnellan), Teresa Kiselis and Mate Barun (both taking on Northcote MP Fiona Richardson), Josefina Agustin (Prahran MP Tony Lupton), and Blagoja Bozinovski (Thomastown MP Peter Batchelor). For good measure, Seitz candidate Manfred Kriechbaum is taking on federal MP Maria Vamvakinou in Calwell. Other challengers are explained by Wallace in terms the “stability pact” forged between the Left and the Right forces associated with Bill Shorten and Steven Conroy, and counter-moves by rival Right unions seeking to forge ties with some of the more militant unions of the Left. This presumably accounts for Australian Manufacturing Workers Union candidate Andrew Richards joining the aforementioned Kriechbaum in a three-horse race against Vamvakinou in Calwell, Lisa Zanatta of the Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union challenging Lynne Kosky in Altona, and Kathleen Matthews-Ward of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association joining the Seitz challengers to Fiona Richardson in Northcote. The option of referring preselections to the party’s national executive remains available to John Brumby, who must be sorely tempted.
• Other challenges appear more obscure. A third Labor Unity candidate, Rick Garotti, is listed as a nominee against incumbent Craig Langdon in Ivanoe, in addition to the previously discussed Anthony Carbines. In Preston, Labor Unity MP Robin Scott is being challenged by Moreland councillor Anthony Helou (once of the Socialist Left, but more recently of Labor Unity) and Tamer Kairouz, said by Landeryou to be backed by upper house MP Nazih Elasmar, a principal of a Right sub-faction also linked with Theo Theophanous (not sure if any relation to Kororoit MP Marlene Kairouz). Two Socialist Left members are under challenge from factional colleagues, which Andrew Landeryou suggests can be put down to dealings between the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and unions on the Right: Yuroke MP Liz Beattie faces a challenge from Colleen Gibbs, an official with the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, while Darebin councillor Timothy Laurence has nominated against Steve Herbert in Eltham. Andrew Lappos, who in the past has been associated with the Left, is listed as a challenger to the Right’s Telmo Languiller in Derrimut, but it was reported last week that Languiller’s preselection had been secured by the national executive.
• The preselection contest for Brunswick has taken on new significance with the news that Phil Cleary will contest the seat as an independent. Cleary defeated the Labor candidate in the federal seat of Wills in the 1992 by-election that followed Bob Hawke’s retirement and was narrowly re-elected in 1993, before losing to Labor’s Kelvin Thomson in 1996. He has more recently worked for the Electrical Trades Union, which under the leadership of Dean Mighell has disaffiliated with the ALP and given support to the Greens. Three candidates are listed for Labor preselection, each a colleague of outgoing member Carlo Carli in the Socialist Left: Jane Garrett, Slater and Gordon lawyer and former adviser to Steve Bracks; Enver Erdogan, 23-year-old Moreland councillor and staffer to House of Represenatatives Speaker Harry Jenkins, said to be aligned with the Kim Carr sub-faction; and Alice Pryor, also a Moreland councillor, aligned with the rival Left sub-faction associated with federal Bruce MP Alan Griffin. Former party state secretary Eric Locke has proved a non-starter; Andrew Landeryou reports he has withdrawn in favour of Garrett, who would appear to be the front-runner. According to David Rood of The Age, Garrett also has the backing of John Brumby.
• Andrew Landeryou further reports that National Union of Workers state secretary Antony Thow has been “elected unopposed” for the third position on Labor’s Victorian Senate ticket. If that means what it appears to, it’s a significant story the mainstream media appears to have ignored, as Labor would seem very likely on current form to repeat its 2007 election feat of winning a third seat.
• The Moonee Valley Community News reports it is “not expected” that Victorian Planning Minister Justin Madden will be opposed in the Labor preselection for Essendon, to which the party has assigned him so sitting member South Eastern Metropolitan MLC Bob Smith can be given a safer seat in Western Metropolitan. Mark Kennedy, a former mayor of Moonee Valley, was earlier reported to have ambitions to replace the retiring Judy Maddigan.
• Federal Liberal MP Chris Pearce has announced he will not seek re-election in his Melbourne seat of Aston. Pearce gave his party a morale-boosting by-election win in the seat in July 2001, limiting the Labor swing to 3.7 per cent – which has since stood as exhibit A in the case that the Howard government’s re-election the following November could not entirely be put down to the subsequent Tampa episode and September 11. He was closely associated throughout his time in politics with Peter Costello, and the fact and timing of his departure have inevitably been linked to Costello’s shock announcement early last week. No discussion yet that I’m aware of as to who might replace him. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that “another swathe of resignations” from federal Liberals is expected when New South Wales and Queensland redistributions are finalised early next year, although no names are named.
• The ABC reports that three Western Australian state Labor MPs, headed by the factionally unaligned Alannah MacTiernan, have moved at state conference for preselection reforms allowing “compulsory secret ballots for preselections, with delegates completing their own papers”.
1,641 Comments
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yes Adam and that is excely wehy an Administration order type situration can work for the person will continue to live where ever he/she currently lives but cannot just spend on booxe for they need to seek approval also its possible that the Financial Administrator can organise via a large network of Helath Professionals the required treatment also can pull together job seeker agencies to help the person under the order to reform their own lives to the point where they can have the order revoked.
Yes I a aware that you cannot solve the worlds problems this way but if it leads to some Improvement has it already is doing then its quite possible that in time we stop looking at the problem and start looking at the solution.
Ah, Psephos – I do admire your mind. In the same thread you have taken great umbrage at someone making jokes about the Holocaust (which came about from those in power making sweeping generalisations about a particular race of people), while at the same time making sweeping generalisations about Aboriginal people. Such mental agility is no doubt part of the reason that you are now Dr Carr.
There are approximately half a million indigenous people in Australia, and they live in all areas of Australia, in widely varied situations (most Aborigines live in cities for example, much like other Australians). To make blanket calls that alcohol should be banned to all people with Aboriginal blood is obviously racist, but more particularly is completely unworkable, given that there are few “full blood” Aborigines outside of the remote townships. How will such a scheme work in practice?
I think the last couple of hours of posting only indicates that educated white people feel that “something should be done”, but have no idea what. The fact that (as far as I can tell) no Aboriginal person has contributed to our little debate is instructive – just more whiteys telling blackfellas what to do.
Fact is that the problems affecting significant numbers of our indigenous population have been two centuries in the making , and will take many years to sort out.
Where I think you are correct, Dr Psephos, is that white Australia needs to start setting realistic goals as to what constitutes “progress”, and be patient in achieving those outcomes. However, the fact that life expectancy amongst indigenous people in North America has increased over the last 2-3 decades (to the point where it is equivalent to life expectancy amongst poor whites) shows that progress is possible.
I think that there should be a higher rate of alcohol excise in the Northern Territory because there is a more serious alcohol problem there than in other places in Australia.
Prohibiting Alcohol would increase organised crime like it did the US and like it does with the prohibition of other substances.
It’s perfectly possible to make generalised observations about the cultural characteristics of different groups of people (including “races”). The fact that the Nazis made *false* generalisations about one group of people does not render all such generalisations false, although it does point to the danger of generalisations unsupported by facts.
I have no qualms about race-based solutions to race-based problems. Yes it probably would be ineffective, but as Frank pointed out, limiting prohibition to remote communities is also ineffective because it is easily circumvented. So where does that leave us? Alcohol is devastating indigenous communities. We reject prohibition. What else do we have?
I wasn’t aware of that, and I’d be interested to know how that has been achieved. Has there for example been a significant movement of people off the reservations? I will look into this.
Anyway, thanks for an interesting discussion, signing off for now.
Hugo
If it helps, I’ve worked on this problem with quite a few Aboriginal people and they don’t know what to do either.
I thought you were arguing on the previous page that we shouldn’t try to improve Aboriginal life expectancy if this involves forcing them to reject parts of their culture?
Not only that it seems to be a bit out of date
2007
2006 even
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25722388-601,00.html
Psephos (& others) – agreed, it has been an interesting discussion, one which should be had more widely if progress is to be made on this particular can of worms. I don’t profess to have a magic bullet for this – perhaps if we can forge an email about it we might get somewhere?
It is a well known fact that the Asian people, specially the The “Mongoloid” (or Oriental of East Asia and Southeast Asian origin) do not handle alcohol very well.
Maybe due to this genetic disposition that alcohol is not “worshiped” as such by the white race. Instead their focus is more on the foods they eat, rather than alcohol drinks. And generally speaking, alcohol is not a big social problem in these countries.
This problem requires a radical solution, and one which involves giving Aboriginal people control over their lives.
I would propose that we set about establishing an independent Aboriginal nation within Australia. The whole process would take say 10 years to be fully established and would happen in clearly prescribed and legislated stages.
Large amounts of money would be set aside for the implementation, and at the end of the process we would have a fully independent nation within our geographical boundaries.
The precise location would be open to negotiation, but shouldn’t only include land that nobody else wants, or of course heavily populated areas.
Let’s face it – nothing else has worked and I don’t think it will until we give our indigenous people control over their own destiny. We certainly owe it to them.
Psephos
Sorry got busy.
I said before I don’t have a solution.
adrian
Is your gravatar Leonard Cohen’s Book of Longing?
Yes! Well spotted.
Yeah lets have an aboriginal reservation – the fact that there are hundreds of different aboriginal tribes would be solved in one foul swoop.
Psephos
“I have no qualms about race-based solutions to race-based problems. ”
Alcoholism is not race-baced. Problems with alcohol are not race based. Certainly some racial groups can be shown to consume more, or have more problems with alcohol, but this is not because they are of that race. Correlation is not causality.
You need to demonstrate what it is about being an Aboriginal that makes you more inclined to consume alcohol.
There are two groups that support Prohibition:
Those that believe governments can solve problems and the criminal class, it’s great for business. Was the 50% reduction in USA alcohol consumption really worth the decades of trouble caused by organized crime. The same question can be asked of all drug prohibition, is the creation of a very profitable sub culture really worth the loss of tax revenue and the possibility to regulation the industry in some sort of sensible manner.
Do we really want there to be more products like tobacco and alcohol that create far more health and other social costs (e.g. policing) than they raise via taxes?
Aust 5.7% vs USA 9.6%. Yes, we are living in a lucky country by the courtesy of two towering genius from Nambour.
http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2BNews/World/Story/STIStory_398086.html
fredn: If you want to reduce the crime element then move to a cashless society: every financial transaction has controls and an audit trail.
You can then have a partial prohibition. Social welfare payments can be restricted to certain classes of goods and services.
The two biggest drug problems are tobacco and alcohol I will give you that. I think one of the silliest things Jeff Kennett ever said was that if something is legal you should be able to advertise it. That is nonsense. Tobacco and alcohol should be legal but is should be sold in containers that show graphic pictures of road trauma, and people carry around oxygen bottles and nothing more. Pull all the advertising off the pubs, no branding.
We are almost at a point where the TAX on tobacco covers the health cost. I’m not into the prostitution industry but I assume that regular health checks are now part of the game in Victoria now that it has been legalized. Abortions now occur in hospitals instead of back streets, that is the point I am trying to make.
fredn
The most common cause of death from a “drug” is from paracetamol. Lets ban panadol?
Having worked in some of the “dry” communities in WA, I’ve seen that ganja is a big problem, too. But drug abuse (including alcohol) and pornography are symptoms, as someone pointed out above. The real problem is the lack of anything meaningful to do. Most communities are based on clapped out bits of land that whitefellas didn’t want, with very little available in terms of bush tucker. Life in those communities is mostly unutterably boring, and without the pre-invasion culture business, it is pretty meaningless. Imposing alcohol bans has actually made the problems worse in many places. Because the grog’s illegal, its price skyrockets, so parents have to spend a higher proportion of their income to get it. And not being able to write themselves off makes some adults angrier and more prone to become physically abusive. There is no single solution to the “aboriginal” problem.
fredn: Nice idea about the labels. It would be funny to see a bottle of Dom Pérignon sold as a “Chardonnay Pinot Noir, Sparkling Wine, FR0382, 2000″
This report from 4 years ago puts total costs associated with tobacco at $31.5 billion a year. In the same year, taxation revenue from tobacco products was $3.1 billion:
http://www.nationaldrugstrategy.gov.au/internet/drugstrategy/publishing.nsf/Content/5E8FFF04AE863CE1CA2573F60018EE18/$File/mono66.pdf
It does however propose that government’s actually receive a net financial benefit from taxes on alcohol that exceed the costs.
Australia should consider selling off-premises alcohol monopolies like in parts of Scandinavia and North America. Tobacco should only be sold at such monopolies.
You will note I not for banning anything.
Tobacco about 20000
Alcohol about 2000
Illegal drugs about 1000
and if you assume the English and Australian death rates from paracetamol are about the same, you might get 20.
458 deaths per year in the US. I can’t imagine that is the top of the pops.
I think you mean:
Geez, which part of independent don’t some of you guys understand!! maybe I should have added soveriegn. Also, if you envisage most of the NT, it’s hardly a reservation. And I’m talking about 100s of billions of dollars to set it up.
But if you prefer to argue around the edges of the problem and try failed solutions, fine go ahead!
ShowsOn
10 to 1 is not almost, however total health spend in Australia in 2007-06 was $94.0 billion. I think you would be hard pressed to argue that 33% of it was tobacco related.
adrian look up the history of Botswana.
According to John Hartigan:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/07/01/hartigan-the-blogosphere-is-all-eyeballs-and-no-insight/
You mean like this on the front screen of the Daily Terror?
[Swimmer’s costume splits – IT’s the wardrobe malfunction to end all wardrobe malfunctions. Italian Olympic swimmer Flavia Zoccari was forced to sit out a championship race at the Mediterranean Games yesterday after her bathing costume burst open in a very unfortunate place.
Flavia, 22, was wearing the controversial £318 top-of-the-line Jaked J01 swimsuit when disaster struck at the Games in Pescara, Italy.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/gallery/0,22056,5058366-5012667,00.html
So fredn, you’re saying that the Aboriginal people are incapable of successfully administering their own nation, given sufficient support, time and money?
You must have a lower opinion of our indigenous population than you do.
er male that “…than I do”
Adrain, sorry a it’s swaziland you should be focusing on.
Anyway, if that’s the kind of reaction that a relative newcomer gets to a genuine attempt to contribute to the discussion, I have better things to do.
fredn
The report ShowsOn quotes reckons nearly $20 billion is lost because of premature death.
Surely premature death saves money? No pensions etc.
Musrum, people die of liver failure from ingesting too much alcohol, but paracetamol is the largest cause of liver failure.
A drunk driver killing themselves or others is a result of their driving a car while drunk, not a result of alcohol ingestion. (There is a subtle difference).
No adrian, I’m saying you solution is one adopted by people who believe in the separation of races. If that isn’t the policy and your independent nation is a success then there will be immigration that you don’t consider inappropriate to it and it will cease to be your glorious independent homeland, if it’s a failure and free immigration is allowed the sane will move out.
How much money does people smoking Marijuana save? Given there is a proven, large, decrease in non small cell lung cancer in marijuana smokers?
Oops upset adrian.
I’ve often wondered if there shouldn’t be more control on drugs that lead to violence and less on one’s that lead to people sitting in a circle singing.
The latest sensational news about Wacko Jacko:
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/yb/132474803
But where is the surprise? Wacko Jacko told us in black and white in his song Billie Jean:
All you have to do is to read between the lines. At least Jacko was being honest.
fredn. No you haven’t upset me at all. As I said, I have better things to do than debate this issue with people who have such a low opinion of the original inhabitants of this country, as your comment #1439 demonstrates all too clearly.
Finns, regarding your post at 1410, can I ask you to investigate the MAOA gene, the metabolites alcohol dehydrogenase and aldehyde dehydrogenase, how these chemicals relate to alcoholism and other addictive substances, and genetic links to a predisposition to alcohol tolerance in certain ethnic groups. You will find evidence for your assertions there.
And then can I ask you to never, ever use the term “Mongoloid” again, unless you are a palaeontologist, and even then it is not really the done thing.
SO adrian how to propose to keep your glorious homeland pure?
Oh my…from Leigh Sayles twitter:
If people don’t live, they don’t work, i.e. create wealth by producing valuable goods and / or services, and don’t pay taxes to the government.
Well, according to the report I linked to, it estimates $3 billion worth of hospital costs alone every year, which is more than for hospitalisations caused by amphetamine use.
How do you make such a distinction? Different drugs have different effects on different people. Cannabis can be relatively harmless for many people, but induce severe psychotic episodes in others.
fredn, your terminology betrays your ideology.
Ahhh- Ulhmann’s worse than Cassidy. Maybe if Ms Sales was in charge the charade would be worth watching.
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