The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
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BB went:
That’s a cracker of a phrase!
Dutton is nothing but a clown
An extraordinary performance by bolt on insiders, could have been andrew robb. Bolt is the reason we dont watch channel 9, he is on their anti-govt morning program.
The fact is Rudd has these clowns talking jibberish. Talk about playing with their minds. Their hatred is palpable.
Ruawake, I have just read your post at 550. Wow, so it’s OK for the Liberals to increase cigarette prices but if Labor do, it’s a tax grab?
What a truly sad and enjoyable state the party of John Howard has become? Sincere commiserations (no sarcasm) to Glen and GP.
How does Bolt get back on Insiders time and again when he is allowed to continually trot out his baseless CC denialist rubbish? The earth in the last 10 years has cooled to ‘normal’ levels was his closing spiel this week, singing Fielding’s praises. FMD.
Yep. I wonder how much scrutiny that particular backflip will get from the MSM this week?
George Meglogenis was good on Insiders this morning. He is much too good to work for News Ltd. As for Bolt, Andrew no matter how much you hate listening to it mate, you have got to learn to sit there, shut up, and take it.
Speaking of Bolt, he is a nut, but at least he is generally entertaining. Something that can’t possibly be said about Milne.
Shadow Health Minister should be one of the easiest jobs around, Dutton makes it look difficult.
That takes a special talent.
Centre
The big problem for Dutton is that he did not read the report. It says the tax increase should be quarantined from the budget and all funds used to reduce the rate of smoking.
The tax increase – if successful would reduce the amount of tax raised, because less people would be buying tobacco. So it is not a “tax grab” if it works it will reduce Govt. revenue.
When I was at the shops this morning I walked past The Daily Opposition only to find another screaming negative front page headline for Labor.
Supposedly Rudd is wasting around 150k on a school with only 1 student in it. Can you believe it! A school with one ( 1 ) student in it.
Who could bother buying such absurd and ridiculous investigative journalism, let alone reading it!
I’m sure that if there was a problem here, this case would pale into insignificance compared to the benefits that the stimulus has provided to schools in general. BUT you would never read it in the Daily Opposition.
Yes rua. But even if it was an initial tax grab, it would help to cut smoking which would benefit the cost to our health system, and eventually raise less taxes by people who quit smoking.
http://www.aph.gov.au/Senate/pubs/briefs/brief04.htm
And Ch 10 are running with the story as well.
I think question is was he sworn in or not?
At the 19 June Senate Committee hearing Senator Abetz appears to be under the impression that Mr Grech et al are under oath:
http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S12204.pdf
They just showed Julie B on the ABC news saying she hasn’t heard anything about the two Tonys taking over the leadership. She looked happy and was laughing about it. Man, Turnbull is as goooone as I have ever seen
Maybe Julie was thinking the more that bite the dust, the closer to the leadership she gets!
On checking the spiffy Nation Building website.
The school in question has had zero funds approved.
Does this mean the report is not based on rigorous investigative journalism?
Frank, why couldn’t Rudd get on TV with a copy of The Opposition and flatly reject the headline as false and misleading!
War has been declared by the Dinosaurs at News Ltd. They have lost their power. Now is the time to finish the Dark Lord!
rua, they wouldn’t know what investigative journalism was. It’s time for newspapers to go. Much better for the environment as well.
Govt has alreaddy responded.
[Senator Mark Arbib, the Federal Minister for Government Service Delivery, says he is sceptical about the report.
"Almost all of these stories that we've gone away and checked out have been either inaccurate or not correct," he said.
"We will talk to the local principal at that school.
"[It] would have been a decision that came between the school community, the school principal and local regional co-ordinator.
“That’s how that school would have got a shade cloth and we will talk to them and find out if they need it or not.”]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/05/2617163.htm?site=news
Oh and the claim came from the NSW State Opposition.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/05/2617009.htm
566 Nick, Erica Betz would say or do anything to cling to Opposition. As Dario asks, was the oath administered to Grech? JV posted the following on Saturday night.
I’ll believe Grech was under oath if someone can point to the stage of proceedings where he sticks out a hand on a dusty old book and swears to tell the truth, the whole truth, so help me etc.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/07/03/reuters-poll-trend-558-442/comment-page-9/#comment-301493
What the hell? The Federal opposition is claiming that an increase in tobacco taxes would be “a revenue raising measure”:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/05/2617204.htm?section=justin
Their leader proposed to do exactly that during his budget reply speech!
What sort of state government funds a school with 1 pupil?
Lagoon Primary School has an enrolment of 13, according to the NSW DET website.
Here is the transcript of the Senate Economics Committee hearing on 19 June.
http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S12204.pdf
Nick, kindly show me where anyone was put on oath.
Grech appears at page 21.
I can’t Psephos. It’s not there.
Why would the rabble be so willing to “burn” Godwin? Could it be that they sacrificed one to save another?
Will another “mole” spring up from the ground? ‘)
Nick
We discussed this last night, and it was clear from the transcript that no oaths were taken in the 19 June committee. Otherwise there would be a note that the oath had been administered prior to each witness’s evidence, or a transcript of the usual question about swearing or affirming etc. while the secretary of the committee went through the oath routine. But the text just goes smoothly from the chair to he questioner. Abetz must have been referring to the sanctions under the rules of the Senate.
Anyway, apart from showing that journalist Lewis and MT are wrong to say Grech was under oath, it probably doesn’t amount to much. The AFP investigation has obviated what evidence was true or false at the committee.
It had better be there because on 24 June Turnbull told us that was the basis of his case against Rudd and Swan. Lewis was still writing articles based on it today.
P72-73
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/chamber/hansardr/2009-06-24/toc_pdf/6915-2.pdf;fileType=application%2Fpdf#search=%22chamber/hansardr/2009-06-24/0000%22
Re 550 & 574 All Labor tax revenue efforts are tax grabs unless MT suggests it then it becomes sensible policy linked re ciggies to health issues. The budget reply was made in a parallel universe where MT was triumphant (in his own mind) however now that he is banished to middle earth (Wenthworth/Afganistan), such thoughts are considered heresy, and idiots like Dutton are trying anything for a bit of media time which of course gets aired because it is anti Labor Govt. But the outright false reporting should be stamped on asap
centre i am happy to tolerate bolt- the stimulus package denial added to the climate change denial is good comedy…i often wonder is he really that stupid or does he do it to be controversial???
They are beyond a rabble
they are now the party of pandemonium
Wasn’t it supposed to be the highlight of the Budget reply that proved Turnbull could find alternative revenues to replace those knocked out by the Global Financial Crisis without the need for debt and deficit?
It was laughable then, and it’s beyond a joke now
The Opposition is so incompetent, chaotic and lost you would think political commentators would be taking them to task until they bothered to sort themselves out.
If bolt were even the rectal part of a journalist he would be going to town on the Liberal Party’s abject poverty in every single area.
Yet what we see is the MSM waving the flag for the Liberal Party trying to attack the government even on trivia. The media is totally negligent in not pointing out to the public just how much a mess the Liberal Party is in and how unsuitable and unready they are to be in government. The MSM is seemingly willing to help put chaotic fools into power on the basis they are not Labor.
Of course all this stems from the methodology of the entire Murdoch media where usually the criteria for selection is being right wing and without standards, it is only by chance they manage to run across the occasional decent non-partisan journalist.
And who has the glass jaw? Certainly not Rudd, they guy who handled Turnmail-gate like a veteran. I would say it is News Ltd who have the glass, squealing like stuck pigs because they exposed on extremely poor journalism.
Oh Dear, Dutton has really done it this time. Here is what Turnbull said in the Budget reply speech.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25482933-5013871,00.html
Andrew there can be no doubt that the only reason we recorded positive GDP figures was because of Rudd’s stimulus. Every economist who knows anything about economics would agree. It took a hell of a lot of guts to make such a quick and decisive decision to stimulate the economy the way Rudd did. There are many in the world who would have had second thoughts, or if they would have acted at all.
I don’t think Bolt does it to be controversial or that he is totally stupid, he is just soooo beautifully desperate
to kick Rudd out of office.
I thought it was so sad how Bolt endeavored to make the case that Rudd’s stimulus packages and Australia’s strong economic performance were just a coincidence. Such desperation or does he really believe that? If he does then he is living in delusion land as most other economic commentators admit that the stimulus package is having some telling positive effects on the economy.
Bolt usually has something sane to say but today he started to mix in some weirdness that is beginning to sound like denial.
Another position taken by those in denial is that Turnbull’s and the Coalition’s dip in the polls is only temporary and will all go away when people forget about Turnmail-gate.
The Coaltion’s TPP may begin to recover but people’s opinion of Turnbull wont recover that much. The huge drop in his character assessment indicates many many people were very disappointed with him. No cognitive dissonance there, his actions fit the lingering perceptions, people finally joined the dots.
The words of Malcom Turnbull’s budget reply speech have triggered the moderation button. No wonder really. Most words I object to are in that speech about why the price of cigarettes should be increased.
Happened to again come across the comments made by O’Connor Labor candidate Dominic Rose… anyone remember him? He was a laugh and a half
http://www.pollbludger.com/fed2007/oconnor.htm
Will Tony Abbott follow his master and be a convert to running a deficit?
Howard is now writing a book.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25737634-12377,00.html
Yeah, it’ll be like ‘we don’t remember why we think you’re a d***head, we just remember that you are’.
The only hope for the Libs is a complete clean-out. But don’t anyone tell them that.
Where were all of these people who are scandalised by “waste” in the stimulus package for schools etc., when the Howard Govt was handing out more than $160 million to Australia’s 26 wealthiest private schools over 2 years in 2002 to 2004 (eg. Wesley College-$20 million, Caulfield Grammar-$15 million, Scotch College-$9 million, Ivanhoe Grammar-$11 million)? (I don’t have any up-to-date figures…)
Each of these schools has several sports ovals and fields, tennis and basketball courts, heated swimming pools, indoor gymnasiums with squash, volleyball and basketball courts, up-to-the-minute IT facilities for each student, plentifully resourced science and technology laboratories and metal and woodworking laboratories, music and drama auditoriums that many small cities and towns could only dream of having, language laboratories, magnificent and fully equipped libraries, music instrumental tuition available to every student, are and graphic design centres, and so much more! Some even have indoor rifle ranges and equestrian centres, and boarding facilities for students’ pets!
Most of the stimulus funding is going on projects that have been on schools’ wish-lists, especially for government schools, which have been starved of funds from that very same Howard Govt. for more than a decade! If anything we should be objecting to the inclusion of these schools in the stimulus package!!
The Finnigans (#524) told us that SMH reported:
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/australia-third-happiest-place-on-earth-20090705-d8ns.html
However, if you go to the web-site (do I have the right one?) at:
http://www.happyplanetindex.org/learn/download-report.html
and download the report at:
happy-planet-index-2-0.pdf
you find that Jamaica is third, United Kingdom is 74th, USA is 114th and Australia is 102nd not third.
Have I gone wrong somewhere?
Ahh, UWA Young Labor. Gotta love ‘em. I think he’s the guild president these days… or maybe that was last year. Only good for coming third and feeding preferences to the Nationals, and he couldn’t even get that right.
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