The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
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I wonder what the Essential poll will be this afternoon? If it stays about the same Speers will be telling us that Turnbull has recovered from the faked email affair and is back on track to win the next election, One Term Rudd might even get another run
Hasn’t there also been a noticeable outcry against Murdoch media in the US lately. The liberal media don’t seem as frightened of Murdoch’s power as they used to be or am I imagining that.
His loss of power over govt. would be driving him insane and the ranting will get worse. Only 18 months for them to turn the Lib ship around and the 3 polls last week all saying the same thing must have been an awful shock.
Seeing the orcs lose government in both the US and Aust must have been very annoying for the Dark Lord. But it was more personal for Saruman Mitchell at Isengard (The Australian), since he has to answer to the Dark Lord’s wrath.
i may even bother with Lewis’s justification for his poor journalism if he could answer one question- When did he first learn of the email?? Methinks it wasnt Friday afternoon…
BB mention Milne as a Carl Bernstein wannabe, here is some quotes from Carl Bernstein on journalism.
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Carl_Bernstein
Milne can throw an air punch but it can’t connect.
And the other question – did he know that Turnbull and Abetz had spoken with Grech during the week (if that is the case). Who gave him the email.
Psephos – thought I read somewhere that Mitchell is in a spot of bother with the Dark Lord. Perhaps Mitchell isn’t tough enough on Kev lol.
The Dark Lord can’t abide underlings who let themselves be defeated, let alone by inconsequential hobbits like Ruddo and Swanno.
“You have failed me for the last time” (Darth Vader theme: dum-dum-dum, dum-de-dah!)
Vera – OH and I were just talking about Essential poll before your comment. Will be an interesting one – wonder if they polled best Lib leader again (HOckey, Costello, Abbott).
Close win yesterday but I was happy. Going to make the trip to SCG to see the last match to say goodbye to Mickey O – can’t miss that one.
Impressive. Most impressive.
What, that I can mix up LOTR and Star Wars, or that I can hum the Darth Vader theme?
Herr Doktor, happy to assist
Finns, you speak Indonesian?
Thanks so much to the sensationalist media. They desperately wanted swine flu to be a big story, well now they’ve managed to panic the population nicely…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/flu-surge-at-nsw-hospitals-20090706-da21.html
Well, both. Was just giving my favourite Darth quote
Adam, yes, I do. BTw: Doktor is Indonesian.
Steve @ 661 you have cut me to the quick, flabbered my gast in fact, visit “the Mad Monks office” whilst we both might profess to be Christians, I would rather commit adultery than go near there, shame on you. I also am partial to the new term “Ltd News” to define Milne’s employers.
Ltd News
Well, we learn something new every day.
OK, what I am trying to do is navigate this website:
http://www.kpu.go.id/
to find the *detailed* results of the April legislative (DPR) election. I have the national figures and the names of the members elected. I want the results at constituency level. I know they’re in there somewhere, because I found the equivalent figures in 2004. But the site is such a maze, with many broken links, that without being able to read Bahasa I can’t find anything. This is a sample from 2004 of what I’m looking for
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/i/indonesia/indonesia200442.txt
Finns has a babel fish gene?
Daily Tele Watch.
Brilliant front page journalism from Ltd. News, upholder of the Ethical Flame and Torchbearer For Honesty and Relevance:
Thank God for Harto’s Boys.
Adam, i will see what i can do. The website looks like a dog’s breakfast. cheers. If i find it, i will ask William to pass you my email.
To be fair, BB, all newspaper websites seem to put their trash in the shop-window, as it were. The Age is currently leading with “Woman raped on couch” and “Hey, Hey co-creator denies sex assault.”
That’s very hominid of you, Finns. I will try to be less abusive of you in future.
Yes, but if you want to hold your organization up as a bastion of free speech, relevance and truth, you have to take the rough with the smooth.
The DT is the absolute worst in Australia, followed closely by… well… the rest of them.
Only the OO tries to keep its hand clean from trashy sub-celebrity gossip, but instead replaces it with rants like Milne’s today. I see he has stopped publishing the anti-Glen comments and is now only publishing the “Wow Glen. What courage! You tell it like it is” botherers.
Feeds his trumped-up self-importance I s’pose.
Herr Doktor,
Meanwhile the Most Popular at “THeir ABC” are:
That’s Raya Tuhan Doktor to you
It really is quite funny. The editor of the News Ltd has dismissed politics blogs as basically irrelevant but all he’s achieved is to draw attention to sites like PB and the musings of the good folk who post here. It pleases me greatly to know that PB must now be essential reading for the clones at News.Ltd. and the sniggering behind Milne’s back must be increasing in volume.
Two top posts today from you Bill. Keep up the excellent standard mate. Your words are being read and appreciated by many journalists across the political spectrum.
No, that would be Tuan Besar Doktor Adam.
Whatever you say, you get the idea.
Killed by a cricket ball. That’s terrible.
The only things I learned to say in Indonesia were Terimakasi and Salaam Aliyekum, which got me by.
The preferred leader for the Libs is a newie called S Else according to Essential Polls.
Anybody know who this S Else is?
Oh, and “Why did you become a bloody taxi driver if you don’t know your way around Jakarta, you moron!” I said that a lot.
Gag me with a spoon! I just got it!
“Settling theold scores” is Milne’s title. “Scores”… get it? Milne thinks Rudd s after him for “Scoresgate”.
Very likely correct, actually, when you think about it. It was a nothing story embellished with a little nasty innuendo that Rudd had drunkenly interfered with one of the hostesses (which accusation was retracted the morning of its publication, but not before 200,000 copies of the sunday Tele had gone out and not before Milne repeated it – against Cassidy’s specific advice – on Insiders). No wonder Rudd was cranky. I’d have been too.
And then there’s Burkegate…
Essential Research: 59-41.
Psephos @ 710
If you’re going to mix your leitmotivs like that, shouldn’t you add Siegfried’s funeral march: Dah Dumm, Dad Dumm, da da da …usw?
Tony Abbott wanted as Opposition Leader by 7% of voters. Looks like Milne has backed another winner.
BH is right. Turnbull is attempting to use Labor’s movement on youth allowance to stir confusion in the electorate.
sky agenda didnt mention the essential 2PP. dont know why?? interesting that SOMEONE ELSE is now preferred opposition leader behind turnbull and hockey. I think Mr. Else should challenge immediately!!
That was a nasty piece of filth in Milne’s story, and it was a lie apparently emanating from somebody in Downer’s office (which is not surprising since it was Downer’s office that denied rendering Habib for torture in Egypt even though US authorities pretty much confirmed that advices were given that this was happening).
The Liberals most popular choice for leader in the Essential poll is ‘Don’t Know’.
Don’t Know should call for a leadership spill at the next party room meeting.
sorry AHEAD of hockey then turnbull
Nice stats here.
I see the two leading candidates for Oppo Leader are “someone else” and “don’t know.” Sadly, neither of these is willing to run.
*gone*
Why do you think? Hahahahaha
Andrew, A ticket of Don’t Know with Someone Else as deputy looks like a winning combination.
Re ER p7, statements describing both major parties. Not happy reading, eh Libs!. Ouch.
And (p 6) Joe Hockey comes a third to “Someone else” and “Don’t know” in “best person to lead the Opposition”. Oh dear.
Yes Milne seems to have gotten away with the extra bit of filfth he added to the scores story. What a sad sad man
There are known knowns. known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
And then there’s Don’t Know.
Next Party meeting it may be a case of Turnbull pleading, “No! Don’t!”
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