The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 14 15 [16] 17 18 … 45 » Show All
Yeah, they think they have a good team of leaders but Someone Else & Don’t Know are their preference. Talk about self-delusion.
The Libs should send their 3 wisemen to Higgins asap and beg Cosssssie to come back.
I don’t think you can say Milne added it, I think it was sourced through Downer’s office/department as all these piece of filth are. You need to have a ’source’ even if it is a crepe one. A technicality – all they need to do is hear someone make the allegation and bingo they have a source.
752
Assuming there are 3 wise men in the Liberal party.
#754 – we know two. Mr. D Know and Mr. S Else.
Crikey’s having fun with Ltd News, by selling a T-shirt of the infamous Harto’s headline with the wrong spelling. I love it when they take the piss.
http://www.redbubble.com/people/crikeyshop/t-shirts/3356455-2-reports-of-newpapers-deaths-are-exaggerated?source=cmailer
Tom H,
I wonder if the people’s preferred opposition leaders, Mr Don’t Know and Mr Someone Else, are big swinging dicks or little swinging dicks.
The voters are way ahead of the Liberals at present. Will promise anything to win votes figures are through the roof.
So 52% think the next decent leader of the Opposition isn’t yet in the house.
Re 734,
Don’t know how Indonesian compares to Thai but we are going to Thailand in December. This phrase above translated into Thai sounds like a good one to learn
Not sure whether Milne did get away with it. Rudd’s approval rating went up remember. I don’t think anyone really thought Kevin would be putting a hand up the G-string of a Scores hostess.
What they don’t realise at Ltd News is that they’re asking the voters to abandon a long-held belief (if a week is a long time in politics, then 30 months is an eternity) that Rudd is their man for the times. It’s going to take more than a couple of dodgy utegate-type stories to dislodge them from that belief. In fact the more they read these beat-ups, with the inevitable bursting of the bubble that follows, I think the more annoyed they will become.
The very last thing substantially debated in the Howard Parliament was the Liberal Dirt Unit. The election was announced that very afternoon. I can still remember Jason Koutsoukis getting a gong by Gillard as the journo who exposed the Dirt Unit for what it was: a bunch of manically obsessed, over-confident muckrakers trawling through press clippings, from the protective environs of the inner bunkers of ministerial offices.
Koutsoukis had been the Dirt Unit’s conduit to the outside world. Every Sunday he’d write a column about how they were going to put Rudd on a slab, eviscerate him and feed the guts to the pigs. I used to write to him telling him to lighten up, look outside and take a breath of fresh air: it wasn’t happening like they said it would. Eventually he did (and still owes me a crate of Naxos Citron liquer).
The moral of the story is that the public believes there is a Dirt Unit, and that it’s in full swing over at Ltd News and Lib HQ. Most of the muck is water off a duck’s back, more so since Utegate fell flat on its face.
My only gripe was that Rudd should not have tacitly conceded that resignation was mandatory if the email hadn’t been a fake. This is now accepted, and in my view is wrong. He should have argued the substance while he had the chance, as well as rebutting the technical facts. This mistake could come back to haunt him in the future.
759,
Means Labor will be around a fair few number of years yet
dogma, Maybe Don’t Know and Someone Else are in fact dickless. We know that the former treasurer was knackerless so big dick v small dick might not be a factor.
Problem is: are the Libs politically mature enough to realise this, or are they going to persist in going for broke?
Interesting that the public don’t see the Labor govt as just Rudd.
If Turnbull had the political nous of a gnat he would still be shadow treasurer. He would have been elected leader unopposed by the end of the year.
Dill.
The Labor front bench has some very strong performers, none more so that Julia. Rudd is quite happy to acknowledge her as a possible Labor leader down the track. Voters like that especially as she is neither a big or small swinging dick.
I’m quite surprised by that number actually. Thought it would be much higher.
The problem for the Friends of the Coalition is that if Rudd had go they will still have face a back up team of Gillard and Tanner with Rudd back to maybe Foreign affairs and Swan to Finance.
The current level of pro-Labor hubris is astounding….just remember how much we laughed at you Laborites in 2003 when Crean was leader and nobody would vote for the ALP that 5 years later the tables would turn…
I doubt the Labor Right would leave the leadership to Gillard they’ll fight to keep the Left faction out of the top job. Mind you a move to a Left winger would virtually assure a massive swing to the Coalition.
Labor won not for being left wing but for being as right wing as the Libs.
If that’s what you think you should get with the winning team and vote Labor.
Pity Costello is going otherwise he and Abbott could work Don’t Know & Someone Else into the old “Who’s on first” skit
Or are they in it allready?
The Liberals can do centre-right better than the ALP can do centre.
I’ll stick to the original not the immitation thanks.
I’m miffed that the Hacks will get Higgins but this happens in the ALP too, nevertheless it is a real shame.
A right win as the NSW religious right? Hilarious. But keep cheering yourself up like that, Glen. You’ll need that sense of humour at least to 2013.
BH, I’m not at all confident that we’ll scrape into the top 8 but our boy O’Keefe is looking on the bright side
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-sport/okeefe-hopeful-of-swans-playing-finals-20090706-da6t.html
OzPol if it is anything to you, i dont care for religion personally.
Glen there was a nice old shambles on Brisbane Ten news tonight. Looks like Federal Tories will be able to campaign as Liberal, National or LNP depending on the feeling in their water. Should be a nice convention up here in a fortnight, they are set to thoroughly confuse their Queensland supporters. The way it is shaping up informal might be the big vote winner on the Tory side of Federal politics in Queensland in the next election.
Fumiest news story background image ever!
http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/3788/liberalcrack2.jpg
Sheer wishful thinking, Glen. Gillard is more popular than any of your front benchers. She’ll be the next Prime Minister.
Oh M’Lady, how can you be so ghastly stupid. It must be the in-breeding.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/jul/05/mi6-facebook-sawers-wife-miliband
link the essential poll result to Antonys reps calc and you end up with 6 nats 25 libs MT and shrek gone just leaves Abbott and someone else the ultimate deputy leader I really enjoy playing with AG’s calculator
Glen
The Libs best hope was a one term Govt. They seem to have blown that chance, the next best was to hold their marginal seats and maybe claw a couple back from Labor. They seem to have blown this as well.
If they lose 10 seats at the next election then 2013 is out of the question. So they are looking at 2016 until they can sit on the Treasury benches at least.
As Poss has shown in his spiffyness – in 7 years a lot of the spot-welded will have gone to meet their maker.
The Rabble need to get over “we wuz robbed” and do the hard work to get back into Govt. or they may be looking at five terms in opposition.
Well that is the point really, it took another 4 years to find an electable leader. The Libs are in the same boat. The Libs would have been laughing just as hard when they saw Mr Crean’s poll figures.
I doubt it. The next PM will be at least 10 years younger than Kevin Rudd.
I can forgive Crean a lot after the speech he gave to Bush when the joint-sitting took place.
That took guts.
Bill, Do you have a link to that speech?
That is not to say that Crean was a bad leader or operator, just wasn’t popular with people.
“In his 19 years as an MP, Crean has not spent a single day on the backbench”
So using the ALP Crean years as an analogy, who’s the Coalition’s K Rudd?
That person would be:
a shadow cabinet member
A good media performer
knowledgeable
ambitious
electable, although relatively unknown
Any clues?
No, just my memory.
Crean’s speech was somewhat ignored in the face of Brown’s interjections and the Lib muscle men herding him out of the chamber.
Will try to find it…
789
Apparently it’s someone else or Don’t Know.
Steve @ 777 wrote:
It had to happen, given some Libs didn’t join the LNP. After almost 30 years of 3 corner brawls, Nats v Libs v Lib rats jumping ship to the Nats … And the Lib civil wars that kept the CM in business for years … And City Nats v Country Nats, Boswell v Barnaby, Katter v everyone, esp the Nats …
To think we used to think the ALP’s Old Guard, New Guard, Rear Guard, Mud Guard Era was as bad as party factionalism could get!
At least Lawrie Springborg could keep some party discipline.
Tom Paine @ 783 wrote:
Not really, TP. Malcolm’s are much worse than Crean’s. Qv http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/07/02/how-bad-was-turnbulls-satisfaction-plunge/
Simple…
Greg Hunt or Bruce Billson (although they both need to raise their profiles)
Tom Hawkins, Crean’s speech during bush’s visit is here:
http://www.australianpolitics.com/news/2003/10/03-10-23b.shtml
And Turnbull is still banging on on Youth allowance.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/06/2618341.htm?site=news
steve, Thanks my man. Thanks for reminding me of it BB.
[23/10/2003
Speech by the Leader of the Opposition, Simon Crean
Mr President.
I join most warmly in the Prime Minister's welcome.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/10/23/1066631550339.html
http://books.google.com.au/books?id=kDyR2za2AwYC&pg=RA2-PA304&lpg=RA2-PA304&dq=simon+crean+speech&source=bl&ots=F9ZmzqThh4&sig=dTQle5MwzW61OcUIB7WMkrpb3gw&hl=en&ei=vbVRSompCJGaMdSx2fUP&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=10
What is this “gap year” thingo?
I finished school and went to university as did almost everyone I know. What does Turnbull want?
The yoof vote?
The Contiki Crowd who take a year off between finishing Yr 12 and startting Uni – next you’ll see Turnbull campaigning at Schoolies
Pages: « 1 … 14 15 [16] 17 18 … 45 » Show All