The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 … 45 » Show All
Can anyone tell me what the “Humpty Dumpty Effect” is? Dennis writes a very factual analysis of Turnbull’s plight under the headline “Malcolm Turnbull risks Humpty Dumpty effect” but there is no reference to it in the article.
Is he saying that MT is a broken egg and that the Libs shouldn’t waste their time getting all their horse and all their men to try and put Malcolm together again?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25725754-601,00.html
A quick google:
ltep source
http://www.spiraldynamics.org/theory/chngtran.htm
This quote here shows that either Malcolm Turnbull is incompetent or he had descended into some fanciful universe of his own where it was only just a bad dream and that the rightful order of things will soon be restored!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25726884-601,00.html
News Ltd seem to be putting some distance between themselves and Turnbull at the moment but are determined to hold the line on propping up the Coalition which is currently in total disarray and have been since the election!
I thought we have been discussing LNP pollies for quite while.
Ran out of a’s
PM turns on news over ozcar affair
interesting that its not utegate any more and that Rudd defending himself against smear is “turning” on news ltd. I hope Rudd pursues them fully over this
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25725753-5013871,00.html
Read this in an article in the West Australian:
This completely ignores most of s 57 of the Constitution. Even if the deferment could be classified as a ‘failure to pass’, the Senate rejecting the bills in August would not meet the requirements of s 57 as it would require identical bills to be passed by the HoR 3 months after the ‘failure to pass’ (i.e. no earlier than 25 September 2009) and then rejected/failed to pass.
The Senate vote would need to be no earlier than late September, not in August. I don’t understand why the writers of articles don’t at least try and come to grips with the technicalities.
scarily, Shanahan is emerging as the most balanced at the OO these days
SA Libs in total disarray. Unlike the Federal Libs? Not happy with a bit of media scrutiny eh?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25727141-601,00.html
OO editorial
The only original content The Australian’s writers often offer are rants about what they read in The Age or SMH.
Ha! “My new stepsister is brilliant, therefore I am brilliant too!!”
Pot, meet Kettle.
someone should do a thesis on why the libs are so bad at being in opposition. I think the born to rule mentality makes it impossible for them to function when they are not in power. even the opposition leaders that suceeded like howard and kennett had previously failed and came in on the back of a unpopular govt and leader
And what high standards that august body strives to uphold. One day I’d like to see the MSM explain why journalists are viewed as the slimiest profession other than used car salesmen. Until they realise why everyone detests them, they will never improve.
Dio, there seems to be a “race to the bottom” happening at the moment. They are probably seeing just how low they can go by the next poll to determine ratings by profession.
Sorta like a “limbo rock” competition. “How low can you go”. lol
One day I’d like to see the MSM explain why they should be called journalists
Brilliant-Investigative-Journalism Watch
…from the annals of the News Home Page:
Keane compares the US and Oz ETS’s. Obama wins handsomely.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/07/03/coalitions-ets-position-threatened-by-us-moves/
Ltep (67) -
Are you suggesting that the electoral reform bill was introduced first in the Senate? Surely it passed through the House first, given that it was a government-sponsored bill (I was away at the time, so I am happy to be corrected). If so, and it was passed again by the House and rejected by the Senate in August, it would meet the criteria for a DD.
Unless I’m missing something….
I might be paranoid, but there must be someone from The Australian monitoring PB and other blog sites at the moment.
I have had another bug inserted on my computer and it has only happened when I log on to the OZ web site.
Just clicked on to their home page from a link and got redirected to this.
Yet the Address bar at the top is showing this!
If the person responsible is reading this, then get this rubbish off my computer pronto or I will refer the matter to the AFP and let them analyse my computer.
The OZ IT people would have got my IP address from my comments on their blog pages so it will be easy to trace.
A while back, I had a bug inserted so that every time I logged on to the OZ web site, my Browser crashed. It only happened with the OZ site and no other. But it is probably only my imagination and not because I have been a constant critic of their miserable excuse for a news outlet.
You are. Government bills can be introduced in either house. In this case as the responsible minister (Special Minister of State, as the time Senator Faulkner) was in the Senate the bill was introduced there.
You need an ad blocker.
Ltep (116) -
OK, thanks, that explains that. The Horse Disease Response Levy Bill it is then!
BB, there’s something really strange going on. I just refreshed the page and was reading your post when the page suddenly blipped and all the gravatars disappeared.
Get a virus checker. Serious advice.
Do you not have one in in this day and age?
And don’t fall for the “We will scan your computer for free” shareware stuff. Purchase a reputable virus checker and ad blocker, from a shop if possible.
ltep @ 104
Could it possibly be because they get paid the same either way?
Refreshed again and they reappeared. I’m pretty sure now that someone is reading my hard drive from another source or something similar!
BB @ 118 + Scorpio @116
If you’re using Firefox the add-on Adblock Plus works a treat.
Scorpio,
AVG is a free anti-virus program that craps on top of the bloatware that is most commercial anti-virus suites.
http://free.avg.com/
I’ve got the latest AVG edition, Add Blocker and Firewall installed but I think they are easily bypassed by someone who really knows what they are doing.
I only log on to news sites and a handful of blogs and a reasonable person wouldn’t expect to get hit upon by “Australia’s leading news provider”? Would they?
Not a very happy chappy!
Also using the latest Firefox!
BtW Possum, it looked suspiciously like Shannahan was feeding off you for content in his article today!
Alternative to AVG is avast! Home Edition- it’s free. I find it friendlier than AVG. It updates itself daily.
Did the cumulative state by state newspolls on Antony’s calculator –
ALP 103; LNP 44; Ind 3…
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=3.3&vic=4.7&qld=4&wa=3.3&sa=5.6&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Scorpio, also use Spybot Search & Destroy for your adware/malware etc
http://www.safer-networking.org/en/home/index.html
Prefer AVG to Avast, which shits me with its constant popups
Malcolm says the Rabble “Should win the next election…” . Why?
Born to rule? Superior policies? What?
Grog, my monte carlo sims turned up 100 as the most likely result.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2009/07/03/election-simulation-alp-17-seats/
They have Nielsen aggregated in as well – which pulled things back a bit from just using the Newspoll data.
A lot of the individual simulation results show a vast number of currently held Coalition seats becoming marginal on any swing around the 2% mark. The distribution of the margins of currently held seats isnt good for the Coalition this election, or probably the one after.
I downloaded “hijack this” a day or two ago when someone suggested it when I got the first OZ bug. Haven’t used it yet because it could compromise my system if I make a mistake with it but it seemed to identify the bug.
Somehow the first bug has mysteriously disappeared to be replaced now, by this new one!
Thanks, Dario. I have used it previously and might have to install it again to try.
Dario # 131
Ignore the pop-ups. They go away after a few seconds if unattended.
Generally, this a good site for comparing AVs. Most have free versions.
http://www.av-comparatives.org/
Why in the heck would Labor be running Karen Brown in Stirling?
Running someone whose main claim to fame is losing a safe Labor state seat would not seem to be a bright move against a marginal-seat member who has already fended off one high-profile challenger.
Not good enough for me I’m afraid
If a similar thing happens next election as happened in 2007, with Labor on 55-45 just prior to the election and there is a movement of 2% towards Labor like what happened to the Coalition in Nov 2007, then it will be a massacre for the Libs.
Only 100 seats Poss?? That must make Turnbull feel so much better
Dario
This may be useful to reduce the pop-up time. Maybe you can set it to zero?
http://support.jodohost.com/showthread.php?t=10727
Encumbency can certainly be a big benefit if you don’t have a millstone around your neck (a la WorkChoices). I think the economy will be the biggest factor. Should we fare relatively well in the next year, expect a healthy increase in majority. If not, it will be an interesting election.
I reckon at this point, he’ll take what he can get!
Can’t be bothered going back to Avast. Happy with AVG at the moment.
Morgan 56-44, with huge increase in Turnbull’s dissat rating.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4396/
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2009/4397/
Only 546 sample
Labor’s not exactly surging ahead despite Turnbull’s troubles; I think this is due to continuing concerns over the economy, debt, etc. Hopefully, now that Turnbull’s cred’s been destroyed, these will begin to turn in Labor’s favour too.
I don’t think it will matter. It would be pretty close to the mark even if they had a larger sample. Pretty well mirrors the others!
So without the Nielsen, I presume 110 seats would be closer to the mark
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 … 45 » Show All