The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 [4] 5 6 … 45 » Show All
Not exactly surging ahead? I think you’ve been spoilt by 60/40 polls me lad
I think the Coalition vote intention is being held up by the “rusted-ons” who will stick no matter what!
Just how long Turnbull can hang on to any waverers or disillusioned in that group is another matter.
Rudd Labor is just sitting back ready to pick them up if they become available, but they will move with the wind somewhat.
Gus, removing Nielsen the 104,105,106 and 107 seats are all pretty close to being equally likely.
Scorpio @ 87 wrote:
Bob1234@89 wrote
“Venomous”? Bunkum! Just because Scorpio happens to be right, 100% right (on more that one count). As you obviously know nothing about the QLD media scene & having been caught out, turn nasty – more of the “Us (sic) Tories never apologise”, I suppose.
Fairfax has no weekday print presence in my part of Queensland, and the weekend papers (early airmail editions) are expensive interstate papers, not Q versions thereof. My normal print paper choice range is: The Australian, The Courier Mail, the local “rag” from the Regional group Scorpio mentioned (Note Brissie readers have a choice of CM or Oz, unless their Ipswich/ Coast work colleagues leave their local rags where others can read them). OH (not a computer user) buys the CM & local rag for the puzzles & gossip (IMO neither worth reading); I do some of the puzzles & sometimes use the TV guide (unless OH draws something to my attention). OH also listens to Mrs CM, ie Madonna King.
I try to watch the 4.30 national news bulletins which feature something other than crime, car-crashes, fires, near-accidents, sport – and anti-ALP “wrap” of Fed & QLD Parliament and other political gossip that infests Q commercial “news”. The ABC’s not much better; in fact, it’s sounding more & more like a non-commercial stringer of commercial news. Nowadays, I listen to the ABC headlines at 6.00, then return at 7.30. Thank goodness it’s all free, or ABC,5,7,9,10 & SBS would have lower subscription rates than pay TV.
Most of my news comes from feeds, “Just-in” type postings, Fairfax on-line, crikey, blogs & boards, as well as International papers, Huffpost, blogs etc, and friends’ emails.
Possum, do you have a response to my post @ 131?
Daily crikey:
A conundrum for many on here. Who do they disagree with? Crikey, or the Labor government?
Lord D youre missing main points of the poll- labor has turned around the shift to the coalition of recent months and turnbull’s dissatisfaction ratings are through the roof. Labor would be delighted on both counts
Re discussion on News Ltd.
I don’t bother to read their propaganda rag sheets anymore. I don’t even click on the links posted here on PB.( I don’t want to add to their internet traffic).
I rely on the following for my daily political fix:
1) SMH
2) The Age
3) PB
4) Pollytics
5) Other sites (apart from News Ltd) posted by PBs
6) The Huffington Post (is there an equivalent here in Oz?)
Rudd up 70-20 in PPM. So more than half of the people who will vote Liberal think Rudd would be a better PM than Turnbull.
And Turnbull’s approval-disapproval goes from +4% to -38%, a lazy 42% drop.
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall…
Not too sure if this has been posted before or not. But the Fuhrer is not amused with Wacko Jacko, especially after what Jacko did to his nephew:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELyTBXzfQJ8
Scorpio – the Newspoll data sort of speaks for itself to the point where it’s pretty much impossible to draw any other conclusion.
If Dennis didnt say that sort of thing it’d be a worry.
OzPol Tragic,
Our mate Bob has a tendency to make a hasty exit once he is sprung!
He really started to get to me the other night when he had a shot at every regular poster, including Antony Green, Adam and Possum, without “ANY” back up to his little rants.
Did you notice that when I challenged him on it, he mysteriously disappeared.
Ruawake (135) – yes I heard MT say that too. He also repeated the line that “the polls go up and down”. This might usually be the case, but so clearly not at the moment. The polls have been around and about 55-45 for two and half years now. Seems for the Libs, the polls just go down!
Yet more proof (if we needed it) that the Libs are convinced that the voters are just waiting for the chance to vote out Rudd & co (as opposed to be broadly satisfied with the performance and direction of the government). All the Libs need to do is to MAKE THEM SEE how hopeless Rudd is. Stand by for more utegate-type stings, and no work whatsoever on policy.
It’s going to take at least one more election loss to get it through their thick skulls that the great unwashed don’t hate Rudd like they do. To be fair, Labor and the Left used to act the same about Howard until Kevvie came along – but you see how far that got us.
As I said I don’t bother replying to vitriolic posts that play the man rather than the ball. It’s a waste of time.
Go and have a cry then
I’m crying just reading it.
So go tell the WA Govt. Julie. I think, even you may know, that WA is not a Territory.
I find it highly amusing that our friends who are sympathetic to the Green cause can be so vitriolic to ALP folk, but as soon as we return fire or challenge them they turn into blubbering wusses. At least Glen and the Libs are capable of defending their side with the vigour as us ALP types, but the Greens on the other hand….
Is that right? I reckon you are a master at them.
Scorpio @ 162 I did. And I’ve found the same thing. Nor is he the only one.
It’s the same phenomenon that bugs NewsLtd journos & eds – the superfast ability to point out errors (& substantiate the point) that comes from one’s handy computer ‘folders’, bookmarks and good & fast search-engine skills. After centuries of controlling info & blocking criticism (except from rival publications) and handy shock-jocks who could cut off what they didn’t want the public to hear, they’ve finally discovered that, if they try the same thing on open blogs/ boards, they’re put to rights very smartly!
Don’t you just love it!
Yawn.
I’m not quite sure Taibbi is on the money here, so to speak. The names Milken, Boesky and Kravis (none of whom were GS) surely deserve some credit.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine/print
I saw a great headline in The Onion
“Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In”
You can make massive profits from short-term bubble trading!
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25726659-462,00.html
So another plank in Malcolm’s fabulous economic plan comes asunder.
What was Turnbull’s quote in Shannahan’s article again?
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25726884-601,00.html
Oh, that’s right. If the electorate wants “good” economic management, then they “must” vote for Turnbull’s mob instead of the incompetent Labor mob who can only come up with things like this.
And lower interest rates and so far, only one quarter of negative growth and only a “small” increase in unemployment so far as well as the housing and commercial building sector holding up well and an enourmous infrastructure program starting to ramp up to further cushion the Australian economy.
Well, golly gee as Glen would say!
Or as Gomer Pyle would say
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6_1Pw1xm9U
Bob1234 @ 164 wrote
Having nothing better to do on a truly filthy freezing day with howling wind that defies my industrial plugs, bowls over full garbage bins and is hard-pruning my trees in the wrong season, I decided to back-check your & scorpio’s comments.
His first, 89, contains no “play the man”, aka the logical fallacy ad hominem (poisoning the well)
Your response I’m sorry but i’m not going to reply to such venomous posts. in its use of “venomous” is just such an ad hominem – if you tried to be funny, the convention is to indicate that – an ’smilie’ wink, LOL, “just kidding”.
@164 you threw in another, claiming “posts that play the man rather than the ball” – which scoprio had NOT done – an added guilt by assertion, a Leninist technique, usually also a poisoning the well or tu quoque or “You, also” fallacy.
Why not join the army of bloggers with that site bookmarked.
The wise commentariat in Hartiganville seem to think that Malcolm will survive – because there is no one else.
In my view this is ballcocks. It reminds me of the “I am indispensable” defence often heard by middle managers facing the sack.
It is stating the bleedin’ obvious that Malcolm cannot win the next election, in fact he is one of the reasons why.
The 17 members staring at life without an electorate office will grab onto anyone who may save their skins.
ruawake @ 179
It won’t be long before “every man for himself” comes into play. Then the fun will start!
If Australians want to see the workplace rights of their children, and their children after, stripped from them, if they want their desecndants to suffer cuts to their wages and working conditions, they should vote for the Miserable Liberals.
Turnbull not only scored a breathtaking “own goal” with Ozgate, he will very likely get well and truly stuck in his own wedge on climate change.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/fatal-flaw-in-turnbulls-climate-compromise-20090701-d553.html?page=-1
Turnbull’s political inexperience and incompetence is breathtaking and once the divisions within the Party start to really start to emerge as we get closer to an election with the polls still looking diabolical for the Libs, then BK’s “every man for himself” scenario will certainly come into play and it certainly “will be fun”.
10 News had Kev in the outback holding a joey but the story was praising him for the record number of car sales last month.
The man can do no wRONg!
these details are from ABC
I like this bit about ute sales being up
link
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/03/2616043.htm
http://www.smh.com.au/national/where-the-ruddy-hell-were-you-malcolm-20090701-d59f.html
Love it! A bit more of this sort of thing in the media and Malcolm might think that emigrating to Afghanistan might not be such a bad idea!
Scorpio @ 182
As we said last night, the US House passing the bill adds impetus to the emerging international recognition of the need for strong targets at the next meeting. Turnbull, Fielding and the other deniers could end up looking like absolute blithering dills.
Fielding’s disingenuous posturing is the most shameful of all. He knows the science is right, and should be treated with contempt and ridicule for all time for his actions over this.
I thought Turnbull was going to cave in anyway in August, but it’s pretty-well certain now, after Gordon Brown’s comments, more resolve from the EU expressed and the US consolidation. Let’s hope it causes him more misery, and the hard-core idiots in the LNP cross the floor in largish numbers.
Generally, there is still a problem with the US Senate though, and John Kerry fears that the US will be left with a domestic reduction policy passed in the Senate, but the vote will fall short of the extra numbers required for it to have international force in a treaty. Apparently the vote for a treaty has to be higher in the Senate to get passed compared with the Congress. Let’s hope Obama can win over the 67 votes in the Senate required for an international agreement, but it’s a big ask. I hadn’t realised the extra votes were required for Copenhagen purposes:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMs9V_EUxE0Y
Don’t know where that leaves the US position for Copenhagen if it falls short of 67
Further to 186
Kerry thinks that if the Senate won’t vote for the international treaty on climate change, then:
Seems to me a much more powerful position would be to have the legislation passed by the Senate first.
Diogenes
That article about GS is horrifying. It does sound conspiracy theory-esque, but the sole fact that Lehmann Brothers was allowed to collapse while other firms were bailed out is enough to raise questions, surely…
My Sister-in-law is a corporate lawyer, worked as company secretary to a number of biggish firms, the people who run them sound despicable…Oh buggeration, the world is filled with nasty banker types. I think I’d prefer to remain ignorant of the nastiness.
JV, if the Libs hadn’t put pressure on Rudd to water down the Labor ETS Legislation in an attempt to get it through the Senate, and the original had of passed, then we would have been in a far better position to influence the US Senate which would lead in turn, to a far better International outcome in Copenhagen in December.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/03/2616520.htm?section=justin
An extreme credit freeze would mean higher interest rates as borrowers and lenders competed for funds.
The commercial building sector is still facing a similar problem as Turnbull continues to reject the Rudd bank to guarantee those loans. Result if Turnbull and co continue along their destructive track will be less projects, more unemployment and lower returns.
Does the US of A have the equivalent of a DD?
Phillip Hudson in the SMH has a go at Labor regarding the indefensible abuses of the Travel Pass Scheme for ex Parliamentarians. Although he does mention Fred Chaney’s efforts which are bad enough, he fails to mention Howard’s $1m plus extraction of taxpayers money.
I, and I would think, most fair minded taxpayers, would not at all be unhappy to see perks and rorts such as this eliminated. These people are not “special”, requiring special privileges paid in perpetuity by long suffering taxpayers.
Come on Ruddy. Get rid of this nonsense once and for all!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/grounded-senator-landed-48000-worth-of-flights-in-six-months-20090702-d6jz.html
Interest rates will always be lower under a Labor Government!
ruawake @179 Short of a world-shattering something or other, the ALP will win the next election, probably increasing its numbers in both houses, so Turnbull will probably make a good sacrificial lamb if he stays on.
Given the Libs haven’t shown many signs that electoral reality has hit them yet, defeat in 09 or 10 or early 11 should make them face it; but by then, they’ll be in the Brave new World they’ve tried so hard to ignore: new economic regulation, climate change structures and systems, digital communications. If they have trouble getting their heads around those, what about these.
The global on-line ed revolution, already reality in remote-area rural school (replacing the old “schools of the air”) universities, training systems and some experimental schools, point the way to a different phase of the educational – every bit as dramatically different as the post-Reformation grammar schools, and the Napoleonic Era French-Prussian centralised curriculum, then compulsory primary, then secondary ed. Hello on-line global classroom.
On-line diagnostic and emergency medical structures, already pioneered in remote Oz areas over the last decade; on-line medical tests such as blood tests; as well as more involvement by nurses, parameds etc in work now performed by doctors, will show medicine’s future directions. Gene therapy and better treatment for cancers will do to many auto-immune diseases what immunisation and antibiotics did to millennia-old viral and biological illnesses. Hello genetic & on-line medicine.
They are the only areas in which I was involved before retirement. But I’m sure that, as IT conversion is now almost where our 1996 IT experts said it would be, the above are where ed & medicine are going. Strategic policy, planning and implementation should have been in place before the end on the 90s. These and others are areas in we should expect the Federal Opposition to be developing policy; but currently they’re a “policy-free zone”
By taking Libs back to the 50s, and ruthlessly removing anyone who disagreed with him (Amanda Vanstone’s words, not mine) Howard left them unprepared for a future already moving from “early adopter” to “mass adoption” stages in 1996.
I’ve seen no evidence that the Liberals even consider (or try to project) where the Global On-line Village is heading, much less what will be expected of the current national government and its alternative (aka Opposition), even less what policies they will need to go to the next election and the one after. Nor will these be the only national policy areas they’ll have to address; they’re just the ones I know enough about to write a post like this.
PS. Lots of interruptions. Hope it makes sense.
ruawake @ 190 wrote
WOW! Who will Rudd and Swannie sue? Adds new dimensions to responsible behaviour by politicians
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/03/2616520.htm?section=justin
SA Labor will keep this issue live (as they should) right up to the State election next year even if M. H-S gets rolled today. I wonder if Malcolm is taking note of what the effects of fake e-mails have had and are continuing to have, on the SA Libs!
You can bet your life Ruddy has!
Nobody.
He will, in QT
He really needs to work out how to be more subtle than this.
Pages: « 1 … 2 3 [4] 5 6 … 45 » Show All