The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
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I this scandal messes up the Tories then the LibDems might do a better as well as Labor.
What an amazing turnaround that would be!
2052
I think a hung Parliament is now quite likely if the scandal sticks.
No Brown’s gone, his poll numbers are really bad. Murdoch’s newsgroup international will suffer if new scotland yard confirm the evidence produced by the footballer’s court case.
It’s unbelievable that the cops knew about these other cases and didn’t investigate or put anyone else in jail.
Superdario
I’ve been waiting for it, something domestic for the Lib media stooges to try and embarrass Rudd with at his next press conference in front of the foreign media.
dogma
3000 people say your wrong
cameron is gorn unless he cuts loose coulston,but even then the taint will linger
i’ve put $50 on labour win/new tory leader at v. nice odds
Considering how many scandals have dogged brown labour, i doubt this one cameron tory scandal will somehow turn the polls around.
I reckon PBers would have said how so many events in the leadup to the 1996 federal election would turn the polls around for Keating.
I gather some in the murdoch media coordinate their trivial and faked smears with the Liberal party and they seem to work in the ABC sometimes.
I think this time around though they will be called out by the government every time they create a faux issue for the purpose of smearing.
Their reputation is on the verge of heading south, especially considering the criminal activities of their cousins in the UK, which will ring a bell here in Australia with the public.
I think murdoch’s chances of getting tv licence here is just about zero. I am sure they would love a FauxNews channel here.
Glen’s idol wearing a stupid hat:
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/1209/johnnyd.jpg
Lewis’ column this morning was headed “The blunt razor gang” -
The Rudd Government has spent nearly$800 million on external consultants to do the work of public ervants,
in what appears another broken election promise.
This looks to be preparing the ground for the next attack.
God he looks old.
I still wonder why Liberals love him. He was the biggest taxer in Australian history, spent the most in Australian history (with nothing to show for it), centralised the most out of any PMs in Australian history, was the most anti-liberal in Liberal Party history, I could go on…
Nice photo, I think the Pope might be fond of our Kev
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25758791-661,00.html
They just showed Howard at the cricket again wearing that hat. yuck
To add – Menzies would have been turning in his grave.
HICKS/GUANTANAMO BAY HICKS/GUANTANAMO BAY HICKS/GUANTANAMO BAY
‘Mr Turnbull said the Chinese should either release Mr Hu or charge him. “Holding somebody in detention without any charge is completely and utterly unacceptable,” he said. “This is absolutely outrageous treatment of an Australian citizen.
“This should be the number one priority on Mr Rudd’s agenda today. He should be on the phone to the Chinese leaders demanding that justice be done to this fellow Australian in China,” Mr Turnbull said.’
http://www.theage.com.au/national/china-crisis-puts-heat-on-pm-20090709-deov.html?page=2
Would it be beyond some of you posters to actually look at the polls?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2009/apr/28/tories-on-course-for-landslide
And Alan Carpenter and Labor in WA were also in front of the polls, and look what happend to them
2065 – mark, were those polls taken before or after the recent scandal?
Marktwain,
That was yesterday’s news. If the tide goes out quickly, it can come back very quickly.
See Tsunamis.
And if you don’t like polls from the horrible right-wing MSM like the Grauniad, here’s an indie. His stuff is more spiffy than Possum’s.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
We may not like it, but Brown is gorn.
2065
Those pre-scandal polls?
If the scandal does not stick to the Cameron then the Tories will win (barring last minute electoral reform) but if it does then I would think that there would be a hung Parliament.
Look at the trend over time, Gary Bruce. Isn’t this what William, Possum, Antony and Adam have taught us?
Now Bob wasn’t it you that thought utegate would have little effect on Turnbull’s poll figures?
Another general negative statement on the character of PBers. Gee that hurts. How to win friends ….
Rudd Labor isn’t dogged by a new scandal every month, nor are they a government over a decade old.
I’m not here to win friends. How sad your life must be if that’s what you’re here for.
2071 – mark, look at what a particularly nasty event can do that trend. Think back to the last lot of polls and Turnbull’s ratings.
Best case labour by 35
worst case minority gvt with concessions to LDP/minors
Using that logic WA Labor Should’ve been returned with a massive majority – but if you look at the figures once the election was called it was a whole different ballgame.
I take that as a ‘yes’, that was you who thought utegate would have little effect on Turnbull’s poll figures. Say no more.
LOL. Obviously not. Gee that hurts too.
As an aside
wonder what Mr “moral rectitude” hartigan has to say on hackgate
BTw HACKgate has a double meaning
To hack -eg STEAL personal info
Hack -a disreputable journo
You have to be kidding, Gary. Turnbull’s trend was just hovering above ‘yeah, like, I dunno’. He had nothing on Rudd, and just sunk lower after his recent escapades.
As much as I dislike it, the time has come for UK Labour. The party is over. I was in the UK when Tony Blair won, and it was the most marvellous thing ever, but that was a long time ago and the Brits, like us, are an impatient lot. The attitude there, from my conversations with fellow progressives still hanging on to the dream and more importantly from two or more years’ worth of opinion polls, is that it is time for a change, much like it was here in 1996. They don’t particularly like the alternative, but they are not scared of it anymore.
Look to the polls – it’s gunna happen.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article6674157.ece?token=null&offset=12&page=2
Don’t scare the poor Labor hack.
They said the same about Beazley in 2001 and Latham in 2004, and we all know what happened there
Says he who doesn’t like me using Cliches and yet does the same.
Usual comments apply.
Live the dream, fellow Laborites, live the dream.
But prepare for the reality. It’ll make men out of you.
Ahh, endless optimism. Cute, but misguided.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/conservative-target-seats
cheers for the link mark twain
I hope you have learnt how to count up to 200
Whats the bet the Libs try to stir the pot a bit more. You would naturally think an opposition would act responsibly on foreign relations but with this mob you never know what they’ll do next.
Gus, are you saying Gordon Brown is John Major? Perish the thought.
no, you just did, kindly stop verballing me.
With a little help from their friends, like their ABC’s trotting out their old stock headlines about “Pressure mounting on Govt” ‘Opposition refusing to back down” etc
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/10/2621849.htm?section=justin
The klan’s back!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/we-have-infiltrated-party-kkk-20090709-der4.html
Oh, dear, I upset you Gus. Sob, sob. If you actually looked at the polls, and took into account the recent UK council and European elections, you wouldn’t have your knickers in such a knot.
There is no shame in losing an election when you have nothing else to offer the electorate. Keating knew this – I just wish Brown would understand it.
you obviously havent even read any stuff on the site you linked to, below is but one eg
marktwain,
Is this your close friend by any chance?
http://www.dailyexpress.co.uk/posts/view/112728/Sadist-wanted-to-torture-a-woman-while-he-played-Proclaimers-song-/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM0sTNtWDiI
Gus, look at the polls and look at the trends. Then read a little bit more widely on the subject and try to put your partisanship under your pillow. It will help your blood pressure, I assure you.
Hi GG. Women don’t usually find threats of violence against them amusing, so I am wondering why you thought I would?
MT,
Shh, the cricket’s back on.
Mark twain
Laugh, I was the one back in 07 who was predicting rudd to get 110 seats, using the published polls as a guide.
I tried parsnips once, but i still suffered from flatulence
Are you another herr doktor???
I see, GG. I’m just another female who needs to be told off in no uncertain terms. I’ll flit away then.
GG
now look what you’ve done!
I was liking the links that mark twain hadn’t bothered to read but still bothered to tell us about.
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