The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
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Wow interesting that i am still a kicking bag even when i dont post on PB…I must have built up some rep on here…
Re Cameron…
buck up and except that fact because David will be in power for probably as long as Maggie 
There is no way Brown will be PM after 2010 scandal or no
As for local politics = MEH!
bullbutter
to quote GP – “Rubbish”
gus,
See 2048.
Shooshing will always be more cranky under marktwain.
is she from the island??
Glen 2101:
Careful there. When Thatcher was in, UK Labour actually was what you think the Aus Greens are, and the Liberals were in the painful experience of becoming the Lib Dems… it doesn’t quite compare.
Lemme throw a weirdly shaped spanner into the works. What if the Lib Dems get the balance of power, due to a non-Labour vote not necessarily going to the Tories? Forget Cameron, it’d be fun to be Nick Clegg right now. Even if they come third on seats (like in 1983, when the SDP/Liberal vote was the same as Labour’s, but got a tenth of the seats due to the UK’s broken old system), if they get the balance they may drag some form of PR in as the price for forming government. That would be very good for them and quite bad for Labour (on current polling)… probably kinda middling for the Tories since they’ll be winning a heap of seats for the next while anyway. Perversely, Labour would be (discreetly of course
) hoping for a real pummeling next year so the Tories get a majority and that doesn’t happen.
And here is our man Kev meeting Il Papa
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKA5UAQ37v0
From today’s SMH:
[THE Ku Klux Klan says it has infiltrated an anti-immigration party preparing to contest seats at the next federal election.
David Palmer, the Imperial Wizard of the Ku Klux Klan in Australia, said several Klan members had secretly joined Australia First, a far right party that announced yesterday that it had the numbers to register as a political party.
"We aren't interested in actually registering as a party," Mr Palmer said. "Our main idea was we would move in and take back what we consider our Aryan parties. [The Klan] is a white pressure group; a white social group for white families. But also a reserve in case the ethnics get out of hand and they need sorting out.”
When he made similar claims about the infiltration of One Nation, the party formerly led by Pauline Hanson, two of his associates were expelled from the party. The NSW director of Australia First, Jim Saleam, vehemently denies his party has been infiltrated by the Klan.
Mr Palmer said: “Members don’t necessarily have to be Christian. As long as they’re white it’s OK.”
Early yesterday the NSW Treasurer, Eric Roozendaal, negotiated a deal with the Labor Party’s national secretary to guarantee no Labor preferences would go to Australia First.
The Liberal Party’s internal procedures do not allow a guarantee to be made so swiftly, but its federal director, Brian Loughnane, said Australia First would not benefit from Liberal preferences. Mr Roozendaal said: “One Nation got a foothold in Queensland due to one factor – Coalition preferences. This must not occur again.”]
Looks like the racists have been outed nice and early ensuring the conservatives won’t get away with quiet preference deals.
glen, yep.
There will always be an idiot under every Village.
This is really not bad at all for a kid from Tassie, he will overtake all of them:
Highest run-makers in Test cricket
Player Matches Runs Average 100s
Sachin Tendulkar (India) 159 12,773 54.58 42
Brian Lara (West Indies) 131 11,953 52.88 34
Allan Border (Australia) 156 11,174 50.56 27
Ricky Ponting (Australia) 132 11,060 56.71 38
Palmer’s loonier than most. Still, though, did the SMH not see the problem with this?
Erm, yeah, and then he secretly boasted about it to the Sydney Morning Herald. Secrecy: yer doing it wrong.
I posted yesterday:
This is an excellent background article from John Garnaut, Shanghai, to backup what I wrote. Malcolm Turnbull would do well to read and read and read this article before putting his foot where his mouth is.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/accused-man-of-integrity-but-said-to-be-ruined-20090709-deow.html
Please note:
While the Chinalco and Rio deal was on, it was family. After, who is Mr. HU? The rest is history as they say.
Aren’t we lucky Turnbull is only the opposition leaders, in that position the problems and damage he can create for the nation are limited. The thought of him being prime minister is a joke.
Please note when the Fitzy affair was on, it was: “The Chinese business woman Helen Liu”.
Now, it is an “Australian mining executive Stern Hu” and according to Malcolm Turnbull: “an australian citizen”.
Vera 2055:
Clearly it will be the Rio Tinto story. Sheridan set it up today by writing:
In case you didn’t get his point he says it three times, in three different ways: zhengyou torn to shreads, positive words “hot air” and special relationship “torn to shreds”. All in three consecutive sentences, too.
I wonder who’ll be doing the “seeing”?
As with the other idiocies they’ve tried on Rudd in the past, this one won’t wash with the public particularly, as most people would realise China is a big country that we can’t push around or even make demands upon (as someone said yesterday “no gunboats”). They might also remember Hicks in Guantanamo, where the excuse (given by the same Libs who are caterwauling today about “demanding” Hu’s release) was that Hicks’ illegal incarceration was principally a matter for the Americans.
It is a disturbing development that this guy has been arrested, for all sorts of reasons. But it’s a pity that – as night follows day – the Liberals and their urgers in the media seem to have decided they’re going to run it as a cheap point-scoring exercise. Serious issues are at stake, not the least Hu’s life (they shoot economic criminals in China) and for Turnbull (or worse, Barnarby Joyce) to push this as a tabloid quasi-racist campaign is dangerous indeed.
Sorry… I got my Sheridan Condemnations mixed up… the “special relationship” will be “seen” as “fatuous sentimentality”, not “torn to shreds”.
Sometimes it’s easy to get confused in all the excitement.
I didn’t make it to the Tea Break overnight – will enjoy UK commentary; best in the world at despair, negativity, false hopes, great side-tracks & spinning “arrogant Aussies” etc – when we’re in the ascendant.
1. Australia First: Will the man at the cricket in the funny hat (matching the trakki daks he affected back when) become a Patron? His father was a member of the original one.
2. Fairfax is enjoying the Murdoch UK scandal. I particularly enjoyed the implications in:
pretty much euphemism for “MI5’s spooks have been all over this like a fatal rash for years, and there’s enough dirt to last out the whole Silly Season.”
After what the World’s Most Hated Aussie (now Yank; but that’s not a plus for him or the USA) did to “The[ir] Times” and other Brit institutions, the spooks would have done it freelance, on their own time – hence “Thousands” – as a spot of national revenge. And if their lads get done by the Aussies in Ashes Tests …..
“Thousands” has all the potential of the Painters & Dockers RC, which most people remember as the Bottom of the Harbour RC. “Thousands” of prominent people, from the Royal Family down, off side = huge public repercussions; any big Silly Season story goes viral – and feral – fast.
Time for UK Labour to do a bit of shoulder tapping & revamping.
3.Will AFP & the Auditor General uncover such dirt on a similarly grand scale, d’y think? I wonder how far Spooks’ Commonwealth Preference Dirt Sharing has gone between The Yard + and AFP +. Two political scandals involving Tories, Murdoch Inc and dirty dealings; ya gotta luv that!
4. TheOz is still doing “Be nice to Kev Week” and I assume there’s more to do with it that the Utegate scandal – especially once Hartigan’s anti New Meeja rant went global (and think how global The Evil Empire is).
Like Bottom of the Harbour & Kev 07: one of those Political Tragics’ “You wouldn’t be dead for quids” times.
OOps, the Fairfax link http://www.theage.com.au/world/cameron-backs-aide-over-news-corp-call-hacking-claim-20090709-deso.html?page=-1
Helen Liu was a chinky eye,
Stern Hu is a dinky di,
Helen Hu was a pub with no cheer,
Stern Hu is a pub with no beer,
Helen Liu was a soft stuff,
Stern Hu is a stern stuff.
Boerwar at 2064 i nearly fell off my chair when I read the turnbull quote. Does he even realise the breathtaking hypocrisy of this in light of Hicks?? Surely he does but hopes the public wont
And I love how the Age says Rudd’s under pressure over this. I think Turnbull is more under pressure, and not coping well
Meanwhile, back on the world stage: Rudd takes centre stage in climate talks
Look forward to MalContent’s latest diversion. He looked so old yesterday.
Sure it’s been discussed earlier… but anyhow… Former NSW Liberal Leader John Brogden has been apprroached to challenge Bronwyn Bishop for preselection for the seat of Mackellar.
2122 OzPT, you’re clearly behind the times. Rudd did not “take centre stage in climate talks”. the OO now informs us that:
[Rudd struts world stage on climate ].
Get with it OzPT, or it’s off to the Ltd News Re-Education Hostel For Deluded Lefties for you.
Kevin07, our globe-trotting Mandarin-speaking Prime Minister going on vacation in his private VIP jet aircraft with pickled, shredded tofu as the main meal, and a brave pilot with a keen eye for “in-flight disturbances” (while we have to go to work in our dreary jobs) never “takes” centre stage. He can only “strut” upon it like the insignificant wannabee he really is.
The sooner this corrupt glass-jawed control-freak master of deception, phoneyism and policy wonkism from north of Pyongyang is brought back to earth and realises he is a laughing stock among world leaders when his back is turned, the better.
Sheesh… Rudd is such an embarrassment. Thank God Barnaby Joyce and Malcolm Turnbull have his measure and will make his government the oncer it deserves to be.
You’re right, BB; “struts” definitely spins better to those who seethe with resentment over his demolition of Howard, Brendan, Malcolm …
But take heart all you dounbter, Erica Bitz had discovered the perfect way of reducing the Oz Tory’s Gen Y vote: Generation Y ‘relies on nanny state’
Wasn’t Australian Liberal Students Federation the mob who wrote complaining letters to Howard about lecturers who made them learn something other than NeoCon propaganda?
Never mind, uni student journos, especially the dreaded Lefties, will thank Erica for it.
OzPT, your apology is accepted.
However, but be warned you are under observation.
Further deviations will be dealt with harshly.
I’m only an aging old-fashioned leftie with an aging brain, BB. I couldn’t find any “frets” or “Hour” & I read it in Fairfax; and, hell, we’d DONE the Scottish Play before June was. Just goes to show that TheOz’s subbies are far better spinners than Age & SMH’s (the article under the spin header was dull & flat).
Fellow bludgers, this might be of interest, freshly posted.
“Randwick Racecourse, Rove’s Rub-Off and Rudd’s Record Ratings.”
http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=5832
With almost any other electoral system then FPTP Thatcher would have lost seats in 1983 as the Tory vote went down 1.5%. The Liberal SDP alliance would have won many more seats with a majoritarian (preferential or two round) system or proportional system (manly seats the Tories won under FPTP).
SNIP: See article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management.
Midday news (radio) had Bob Brown repeating Turnbull’s bull ie “Rudd must intervene now, they move quick over in China with exercutions” not exact words but that’s the gist of it.
I’ts getting so as I don’t know who I like less!
I think another reason the commentators can’t understand it is that a lot of the things they see as negatives are actually seen by the electorate as positives. It warps their tiny minds.
For example:
a) Press Gallery sees Rudd as a workaholic and working the public service too hard
b) Voters see Rudd as a workaholic and working the public hard, as they should be worked
a) Press Gallery sees Rudd as only making popular decisions
b) Voters see Rudd as making decisions that they want, in their interest
a) Press Gallery sees Rudd as sleazy by going to Scores
b) Voters see Rudd as human by going to Scores
a) Press Gallery see Rudd as a populist by going on Rove
b) Voters see Rudd as someone they can relate to by going on Rove
a) Press Gallery see Rudd as a smarty pants by speaking different languages and using big words
b) Voters see Rudd as intelligent by speaking different languages and using big words
In a nutshell, the Press Gallery are so used to the Howard way, that they just can’t cope with the change. They expect Rudd to act the way they want him to, and when he doesn’t it’s Rudd that is the one who is wrong, not them. Of the anti brigade, only Denis Shanahan seems to have come to terms with this. Whether that is just a temporary change, who knows.
Glen, to make you feel better, I made this computer desktop wall paper for you:
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/9416/johnnyb.jpg
ShowsOn
That’s a bit cruel! Well done.
Dario the press gallery cant get over the fact that their darling Howard got booted out. They overreact to any story that may harm Rudd as if “we’ve got him now” only to be proven wrong time and time again. They cant accept that Rudd is popular and seen as competant. It may take another election win to make reality sink in for some, although I think others will do this his whole prime ministership
Shanahan has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, since he returned from leave in the last week of Utegate. Perhaps Milne should take a long break too, as he now seems to be the resident “intellectual” looney at the OO (as opposed to outright looney, which could be Christian Kerr).
While he’s had the odd lapse from time to time, some of Dennis’ latest articles have been not only balanced, but actually informative and somewhat thought-provoking, in that they provoke though rather than apoplexy. I actually enjoyed reading his one from this morning.
I’m not fooling myself into thinking he’s changed his allegiance. Who he prefers politically is his business. It’s only when it impinges on my business that I get annoyed, as was the case in his poor analysis of the Newspolls of 2007, culminating in the “Old Dog v. New Dog + Barbeque” theory. Dennis might find he actually gets a following of interested readers if he keeps this up (opposed to a mad mob of wingnuts, kibbitzed by equally mad lefties, as was the case before).
Dennis seems to have taken the waters and calmed down a bit.
Hilarious presser by Rudd broadcast on ABC this am. Every journo question which asked Kevin to respond to something Turnbull had said Rudd should do, in relation to several isues, was batted away with variations of…” well, Mr Turnbull’s judgement has been shown to be spectacularly bad…”
This will be every cabinet minister’s standard opening response to all such questions from now until the carcass is cut down… and perhaps for some time after!!
Message to the Liberals: Credibility, yer doin’ it wrong!
Tom (1929),
If the members of the SDA do not like the stance of the SDA leadership on any issue, including their pro-life stance, they are able to elect a different leadership.
I was a member of the VSTA and then the AEU in my years as a teacher. Teachers complained incessantly about the poor results the union achieved in later years (pay down by some $37,000 relatively speaking between 1975 and 2007, teaching loads up, secondary staffing worse now than under Lindsay Thompson in 1981), yet they never elected a different leadership, they would not support industrial action, they failed to use the provisions of the 2001 EBA to get decent teaching loads – say, the 21-period maximum the teachers at Hampton Park SC insisted upon – in their schools, and they voted in the 2004 EBA to make their teaching conditions worse. It’s bit like ALP members who complain about factions and then vote for candidates belonging to factions in internal elections.
Yes, Turnbull is suffering from a terminal case of Martin Hamilton-Smith syndrome, the Liberals just don’t seem to realise it yet.
Possum (1620),
I assure you that I am not going to read any more posts at Andrew Bolt than I do now. I don’t want to find out what “your head hasn’t assploded” means!
OzPolT – I agree. It’s so much more interesting too when Turnbull, Joyce and now Bob Brown spout forth before the “Australian citizen Hu” details are properly known. Bob B is becoming a little tiresome with his search for more relevance.
The sarcasm of Uhlmann this am was something to behold – apparently the Pope gave Kev a pen so Uhlmann said, in a very sarcastic tone, that when Kev gets back here he will be waving the pen around saying ‘Here’s my pen. I’m a powerful man, you know”.
Urrgghh.
Who the hell are these freaks??? Someone ought to burn it to the ground.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/strangebuttrue/holy-wood-irish-catholics-say-tree-stump-looks-like-mary-20090710-dfcx.html
Chris,
Not sure how connected you are with the DLP these days. But, do they intend running a serious campaign at the next Federal election?
I perceive an opportunity for them at the next election.
Having a moderate family oriented alternative voting option may be quite attractive to voters not wanting to vote for the majors but rightly concerned about the extremist aspects of the Greens.
Youre right Trubbel, and this stuff will work as it will reinforce voters perception of Turnbull, unlike the bull that the MSM and opposition come up with about Rudd that goes against voters perceptions. Isnt there an adage in advertising that it only works to reinforce existing perceptions??
I don’t want to hark back to the Senate hearing but can someone say whether it was definitely established that evidence is still considered ‘under oath’ even it there was no swearing of it prior to the hearing.
I think Psephos said he had checked with the Clerk but I didn’t keep the reply.
Considering the Greens gain a higher vote and more Senators at each election, and that they gain a higher Newspoll primary vote after each election, with the higher polling most pronounced after the latest election, between 10-13%, I suspect you should also be perceiving more Greens Senators after the next election
They’ll be the ones with the sole balance of power and have the ability to pass legislation when the coalition refuses.
Don’t bite the hand that feeds you.
No. But witnesses are aware that there are penalties for the giving of false or misleading evidence.
I don’t know how it could possibly be considered under oath if nobody took the oath
Prior to the hearing commencing the chair made a statement which included the following:
As such people are entitled to believe all evidence given before the committee has the same status as ’sworn evidence’ even though no oath or affirmation is necessary.
Someone did check with the clerk (Psephos, I believe), and no-one was sworn, although oaths have been administered rarely in the past (but not this time).
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