The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
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OzPol Tragic,
If the Libs had half a brain, they would have positioned themselves half a street ahead of Labor on these issues after their 2007 defeat and made it seem as though they were ahead of the curve and Rudd was struggling to keep up.
Instead they just sat back on their one remaining “better economic manager’ laurels, felt sorry for themselves, believed that the electorate had made a terrible mistake that they would regret and come cowering back to the Conservative fold once they realised that Rudd was n ot the person they perceived him as being etc.
Unfortunately, in each of these criteria, they are dead wrong anjd the MSM in trying so hard to reinforce this level of thinking, have done them and the country as a whole, “NO” favours whatsoever.
Australia at present, with all the challenges it currently faces, needs a competent Opposition, willing to be adventurous, to meet with the Government in shaping suitable solutions to meet these challenges and the MSM should be pushing this for all it is worth for this and future generations and would benefit itself from a general public that has some level of trust in its motives and judgement.
As it stands now, the Conservatives know that most of what the MSM is presenting is garbage to prop them up in their hour of need and the rest are so disillusioned they are not prepared to accept just about “anything” that the MSM are dishing up tp them, even if it is accurate and well founded.
Oz-gate etc fail the test as Paul Kelly likes to remind us, (Rudd fails this test, Rudd fails that test, how will Labor deal with this test) and the MSM are now in a position of having virtually “NO” credibility with the general public which it relies upon for its survival.
Its demise will be mostly all self inflicted and good riddance to bad rubbish.
Scorpio, the whole travel thing seems like a beat-up to me. $8.3m since 2001? Boohoo. Compared to serious wastes of money – like terrorist hotline fridge magnets – this is a drop in the ocean.
Fred Chaney is, IMHO, a bad target to choose in this regard. He wasn’t in any way arguing that his work is charitable (though it may be in some respects), but simply a public good. I’m a great believer in his work, so I’m happy to see the government spend some money to support it.
As much as I don’t want to see that revolting little slug Howard spending more of the Nation’s money in future, I also don’t want to cut off my nose to spite my face.
The problem the rabble have with the “debt and deficit” argument is that most people realise that debt is a necessary evil.
I need a car, get a car loan. I need a house, get a mortgage. I need a fridge etc. etc.
There are very few reasons why Govts. should run surpluses.
Well, I wouldn’t mind the travel funding if it was within certain parameters – for registered charities, local government organisations etc. But any travel for personal reasons, or involved in earning money (speaking tours!) should be off-limits. maybe the activity should be declared and approved before the travel is undertaken.
ltep, he should have stuck to Merchant Banking which he was at least passably good at.
Polyquats
The $8.3 million for ex MP’s Gold Card is for seven years. So lets set up an office to look into the money that is “wasted”.
Betcha it costs more than it saves.
polyquats, scrap the lot. All taxpayers contribute to this rort.
Unless the travel and expenses have “some” value at least to Australian taxpayers, then it is just a perk that is unjustifiable and should be confined to the dustbin of history.
Hear hear. No ex-politician should receive tax-payer funded travel.
The ABC having a shot at Rudd for “Grocery Watch” on the 7.30 Report.
Since Howard stacked the Board and Management, it has really gone overboard (especially its on-line offerings) in trying to be “balanced”! lol.
scropio – wouldn’t it be Stateline?
Criticising Grocery Watch is fair game. It was pointless from the beginning and, in the end, a huge waste of time, effort and money.
Mmmm. Red face time. This is a repeat on digital. Should be watching Stateline.
Ouch!
Yeah, I deserve that, Grog!
Perhaps someone can remind me.
Wasn’t there a period in early 2008 when Turnbull was opposition treasury spokesman and was making suggestions in the media which seemed to be pre-empting government announcements? What were those issues?
Should that be reviewed in the light of Grech’s recent behaviour?
It’s Time
Fuel Watch leaks.
RBA – Treasury correspondence
Were the main ones published.
No, there were some Government announcements that the Opposition preempted and ‘called on’ the government to take action on.
Then when the Government made the announcements the Opposition claimed that the Government had no ideas of their own.
Woops – sorry ’bout that.
There was also the time Turnbull predicited the stimulus package would be $5b…. but it came out at $10b. Guess Godwin wasn’t in the loop on that one:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/10/14/2390199.htm
btw love the opening par:
You mean this, it’s time?
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/10/26/1224955851153.html?page=2
Gee, I wonder who…. where’s Sherlock Holmes when you need him? Columbo? Scooby Doo?
There was a nice old COAG leak too.
http://www.treasurer.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=transcripts/2009/068.htm&pageID=004&min=wms&Year=&DocType=2
Prophetic, but most of this is unfortunately, “wrong”.
Turnbull will never be Prime Minister.
Instead of looking for marginal seats to win, the Libs are now looking at what seats they already hold that they can “save”.
He is not going to achieve his aims and it will be all the more difficult if he loses his constant drip feed of information on the Government from his moles and sources in various Government Departments.
The circumstances are very different between Scullin’s dealings with the Great Depression and how Rudd is handling the GFC.
The last paragraph is fairly correct though. Turnbull certainly does not play by the normal rules and conventions and has certainly shot himself in the foot and the rickoshey has bounced around the room and wounded many of his colleagues also.
Struth, this thing posted itself before I had finished editing it and adding the link.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/10/26/1224955851153.html
“ricochet” even!
Time story on Rudd – must be the International version rather than the Australian edition.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1908274-1,00.html
Sorpio, The most spot-on thing in the article:
Perhaps if he had that gene he might become PM. Oh well.
Here’s another instance where Turnbull threw up a red herring to get a bit of publicity.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24700862-36418,00.html
Grog, that Time article was quite good. I quite liked the finish.
http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1908274-1,00.html
I wish I was around by the original rise of Howard. (Heh, I made everyone look old). How exactly did a guy, surly part of the old guard, being the ex-treasurer, and associated with the then voted out govt survive the 10+ Hawke years in the wilderness, and being a badly beaten opposition leader etc, and Mr 11%, achieve to become our 2nd longest serving Prime Minister?
Relating to current events, I’m just saying it is possible (with Turnbull); you just went through the last living example of it. Most are saying he’s quit if he doesn’t get his way, but I’m thinking his ego could he big enough to an eventual comeback – He’s not going to quit; he simply can’t stand to be wrong, and to “prove” he was right…
Just happened to be in the right place between a recession and a decade long mining boom, Sertse.
I think after ‘93, 3 factors scuttled the keating dream.
1.keating himself
2.structural eco. reforms “burning’ some punters
3.Unlike hawke,keating was unmilling to bend to certain groups
unmilling of course should read “unwilling”
grrrrrrr Sales said “illegal boat people”. Why can’t these journos learn to say ‘refugees’.
or ‘asylum seekers’
Polyquat they need to prove it first
Sales is correct 
Glen, where have you been? To the footy?
William: With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
Comment: Labor have some chance of picking up a third seat. At the risk of splitting hairs, I would say “unlikely” rather than “very unlikely”. Something like a 30% chance of getting three. They will get the third seat if the Greens’ Kim Booth misses. Booth just scraped in last time – it all depends how the pulp mill is running as a story come election day. Booth should hold, but …
Also to the list of potential Labor candidates who could trouble the high-profile Hay and Webb you should add Michelle Cripps, who stood on the ticket in 2006 and got a thousand-odd votes. If she has learned from that experience, she must have some hope. At the moment there are seven hopefuls, and one is likely to miss pre-selection:
Sitting members Michelle O’Byrne
Brant Webb
Kathryn Hay
Michelle Cripps
Scott McLean
Rob Soward
Brian Wightman
See http://www.examiner.com.au/news/local/news/politics/one-bass-nominee-too-many-for-labor/1557719.aspx
Grog @ 223, Scorpio @ 226, interesting date on that Time article – 13 July! Great article, thanks for the link.
Diogenes
A good quote. I think on this site we have seen a similar tranformation taking place. Since the Freo Bi-Election the ALPers have made the transition from laugh to fight in their anti-Greens hysteria. The next step is…
And what a surprise – the Greens make yet ANOTHER personal attack.
Buid a bloomin Bridge – your pathetic whinings each time the bad ALP”ers expose your little lies proves you can dish it out, but you CANNOT take it.
Pot Meet Kettle.
Frank
You always remind me of an incident where some drunk and mildly mentally disabled guy was talking to my brother. His replies had nothing to do with what my brother had just said and finally he just had to say “sorry man, I just don’t get you”. I don,t interpret my words as either an “attack” or “personal” and they certainly weren’t intended as such. I’d say they refer to a hope for the future – a prediction for the future of this country. Your responce does seem in line with my theory that hostility from the alp types here towards the greens has been on the rise. I could be wrong but my guess is that most bludgers of all persuasions would agree.
I beg of you this one request though? Can you please explain *in detail* the relevents of the pots kettle analogy to this discussion because right now with all due respect “sorry man, I just don’t get you”.
Ps I’m NOT saying you are drunk or mildly mentally disabled and I am not trying to make a personal attack – just that we do not appear to operate on the same wavelength ever and that I can rarely follow your train of thought as I have said on other occasions. Perhaps we have very different personalities.
I find the last two posts to be distasteful and unnecessary, to say the least.
As do I
I see no problem with 241 and 242 when read together.
wow a curry joke about an Indian person? Hilarious
Palin is to resign as Governor of Alaska.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090703/ap_on_re_us/us_palin_resigning
Steve,
Now watch out for Palin as a presenter on Faux News.
Big possibility BK, she could double as candidate and political commentator for Faux News with their ethics and her previous beauty queen role.
Steve,
And their dress code would require her to wear a short skirt.
Seriously, Faux News is just a dog whistler to the right wing rump in the us.
Unbelievable!
Credit Where Credit’s Due Dept.
Annabel Crabb writes a good one: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/lib-think-tank-running-on-empty-20090703-d7rk.html
More like this please, Annabel.
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