The latest Reuters Poll Trend weighted average of Newspoll, Morgan and ACNielsen results has federal Labor with a two-party lead of 55.8-44.2, presumably being weighed down a little by recent results from before the weekend.
UPDATE: Roy Morgan has joined in on the action with a small sample (546) phone poll including questions on leadership approval, which Morgan doesn’t normally do. It finds Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating down to 25 per cent from 43 per cent in May, with his disapproval up a breathtaking 33.5 per cent to 62.5 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s approval rating on 63 per cent, up from 57.5 per cent in May, with his disapproval rating down from 33.5 per cent to 29 per cent. Labor holds leads of 56-44 on two-party preferred and 46 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote, which is actually quite mild by Morgan standards. Newspoll has also published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of recent polling by state, age, sex, and capitals/non-capitals.
Apart from that:
• Robert Taylor of The West Australian reports that Labor preselections for some highly winnable Liberal-held seats in Perth appear to be ”stitched up”. In the only two seats in the country which the Coalition gained from Labor in 2007, Cowan and Swan, those respectively named are Wanneroo mayor Jon Kelly and Slater & Gordon lawyer Tim Hammond. Kelly is interesting, as he ran as an independent against state Labor MP Margaret Quirk in Girrawheen at the 2005 election after a split in the Right faction. In Stirling, where decorated Iraq war veteran Peter Tinley failed to unseat current Shadow Workplace Relations Minister Michael Keenan in 2007, the nod is apparently set to be given to Karen Brown, former deputy editor of The West Australian and current chief-of-staff to Eric Ripper. Brown famously failed to win the new notionally Labor seat of Mount Lawley at the state election last September after suffering an 8 per cent swing, which many blamed on Alan Carpenter’s insistence that local member Bob Kucera make way for Brown. Peter Tinley is said to be holding out for a safe seat or a Senate position, and the unlikelihood of either suggests he will not be a starter at the next election. In Hasluck, which Sharryn Jackson recovered for Labor in 2007 after a term in the wilderness, Liberals are said by Taylor to be “working behind the scenes” to secure the endorsement of Mike Dean, who last week stepped down from his high-profile position as president of the Police Union.
• The ABC reports that Kathryn Hay will seek Labor preselection for Bass at next year’s state election. Hay is a former Miss Tasmania who became Tasmania’s first Aboriginal MP when elected at the age of 27 in 2002. After surprising everybody by dropping out at the 2006 election, Hay ran as an independent against Ivan Dean in the upper house seat of Windermere in May, and did very well to finish within 5 per cent of victory on the final count. With incumbent Jim Cox retiring, Michelle O’Byrne a sure bet for re-election, and Labor looking certain to win a second seat but very unlikely to pick up a third, the battle for the second seat is looking like a tussle between Hay, Beaconsfield mine disaster survivor Brant Webb, CFMEU forests division secretary Scott McLean (who famously came out in support of John Howard at the 2004 federal election) and Winnaleah school principal Brian Wightman, with only the latter looking an obvious also-ran.
• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports that George Seitz, western Melbourne Labor Right potentate and state Keilor MP, proposes to publish a “warts and all” account of his career in politics. Seitz is being forced out after nearly three decades in parliament due to a Victorian Ombudsman’s report which probed into the involvement of various state MPs in goings-on at Brimbank City Council. The aforementioned Wallace article is worth reading for a broader overview of the episode’s far-reaching impact on the Victorian ALP.
• Andrew Landeryou at VexNews reports that the closure of nominations has brought no challenges to sitting federal Liberal MPs in Victoria – including Kevin Andrews in Menzies, who was believed to be under threat from former Peter Reith staffer Ian Hanke.
• Nick in comments informs us that according to a Channel Nine news report, Labor polling has it trailing the Coalition 57-43 on NSW state voting intention.
2,238 Comments
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joncanb
Well said, too! Two well expressed posts in a row there, that sum it the preceeding discussion in a neutral fashion – a breath of fresh air after the usual partisan vitriol for the past few hours.
Psephos – I’m not getting ads on Google Earth maps.
Actually I think its good people can exchange ideas without resorting to personal attacks.
Altho not agreeing with most of the greens reasoning,it is still valid nonetheless.
Fredex
I agree on some of your points and feel that perhaps some of those issues you outlined are the ones the greens would like to “own”
ie
Tomtfab
Did it occur to you that Labor received 78% of Green preferences because that is the way the voters preferred their preference to go?
ruawake
careful – there’s a PR debate trigger there
jv
We have the electoral system we have, no matter how much I want the Senate abolished or how much others want pv, neither are going to happen.
JV @ 398
Thanks for the link. Has been bookmarked and will explore further
ruawake
But changes start with a wish. Everyone just accepting the political status quo doesn’t make improvement possible, as many Iranians obviously believe.
Your wish to abolish the Senate works – if we have my PR in the Reps. But you need a referendum passed for your wish, I don’t for mine.
If the 10% or so voters who voted for the Greens at the last election had the exclusive right to vote for either Labor’s CPRS or the Greens’ ETS, Labor would win easily by at least a majority of 7 to 3.
Could you imagine implementing a policy of cuts in emissions of between 25% to 40% by 2020 where the main players, the real ones who can make a difference to CC, are cutting much less?. We would be the laughing stock of the world. It would be the end of the Irish jokes as we know them. You would have Irish jokes being replaced by Aussie jokes all over the world.
But my favourite PB Greens policy is the one where you phase out people driving their cars. Wow, what a turn around in the polls that would bring?
Howard Zinn
Not that I am advocating revolution
In the face of the GFC and AGW, ‘business as usual’ or the acceptance of the status quo does not cut it anymore.
Poor old Steve Lewis, he still can’t believe they got it so wrong or that they have anything to answer for. He still believes Rudd does.
Steve, build a bride old boy. Move on.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25729056-5005941,00.html
With respect to Fredex.
Can anyone point out where ALP policy on women
http://www.alp.org.au/platform/chapter_13.php#13women_making_equality_real
Is different to Greens policy
http://greens.org.au/node/801
Pegasus
Probably even better links for PR on reflection, including this UK site – it has a great mythbusting section debunking all the usual furphies vested interests trot out in PR debates:
http://www.makemyvotecount.org.uk/blog/archives/myths/index.html
And another one “The PR Library”:
http://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/polit/damy/prlib.htm
GB those poor folks at news ltd are reeling that they have been named and shamed by Rudd and I bet they’ll just get more shrill and hysterical. The funny thing about the deadline defence is they have never said when they received the call about the email. I reckon they didnt ask Rudd until 4pm Friday simply so they could print the front page without his reply. I’m sure they had the story prepped before 4pm
I suppose you meant bridge, but considering the frankensteinian outpourings from his poison pen, a bride may be more suitable.
Could someone tell Steve Lewis and the Libs that Grech was *not* under oath?
Sorry, folks, but I’m back. Tried to post this around 383 but the site went down. Definitely my last word on this though. I hope people do read it.
This whole debate has nothing whatsoever to do with direct economic effects on individuals. That is the Coalition line being used to water down the “existing” ETS Legislation. It has already passed the Reps!
What is being pushed is that all Labor needs to do is strengthen the “existing” ETS and convince the “people” that that is a good idea. The people have already spoken and they agreed with Labor that the country “should” have an ETS.
The problem is that the Coalition, the Greens and Independents won’t accept that and pass it through the Senate!!!!!
The reality is that if this doesn’t pass and Labor have a DD election, If they win and don’t lose any seats in the Senate, then the existing ETS will be passed at a Joint Sitting.
The other “IF” here, is that if the Greens do what their supporters here badly want them to do and knock off three or four Labor Members in the House of Reps and Labor do not improve their Senate position, then the Joint Sitting may “not” pass the Bill.
Back to square one. No ETS.
If Labor get knocked off at the next election, (not a DD) with the Greens taking seats off them to make things harder and increasing their seats in the Senate, probably at the expense of Labor, then there will be a Conservative Government which will “not” introduce an ETS and there will be no substantive Senate opposition to do anything about it. Zilch!!!!
People who can’t see that are not looking very hard or thinking very hard about the scenarios. Just wanting something or wishing something does not make it happen. Reality is far different and people need to understand that.
Too many people just skim through posts and read what they want into the rest. Far better arguments would be put forward if only some people would “read” the posts and digest them before they sprout off with the same line over and over in varying formats but in reality only say the same thing.
The election is over, the people have spoken, Labor has an ETS Bill passed through the House of Reps, the Coalition, the Greens & Independents are refusing to pass it in the Senate, therefore no ETS Legislation is available to be pressed into service.
Unless Greens supporters come back to the world of reality from the world of fantasy, then the climate will keep changing and there will be nothing in place to address that and Australia will go to Copenhagen with a virtual nothing because there is “nothing”, just wishful thinking and obstructionism which is the cause of that “nothing”
Andrew
And why didn’t Lewis actively seek out a response to the ‘email’ from Rudd’s office immediately he received it? Isn’t that what journalists are supposed to do before publishing something detrimental to someone – check with the person affected, and in this case, the supposed author as well?
Lewis is wrong, it was not Rudd who said their was no email – it was Martine at the Senate Committee.
Surely this should have sent warning messages to his keen journalist brain? Especially since Grech said he told Lewis 4 times there was no email.
He should follow Albo’s advice – when you are in a hole, stop digging.
JV Steve Lewis does not mention the TIME he received the email info. I’m sure they could have contacted Rudd’s office earlier that Friday and got a response before copy time. Would it kill them to just apologise, after all Pauline Hanson got an apology for the fake photos!!
In a tiny little article hidden away in the middle of the Paper
The other thing about Turnbull’s and News Ltd defence is their reliance on the Grech testimony. He actually made qualifications like “I may be totally mistaken” etc. Should this have NOT raised the alarm somewhat??
Psephos –
Are you sure about that?
The deadline defence is a pathetic attempt to cover their hide. They should print a screaming headline on the front pages of all News Ltd papers apologising to the PM and to the electorate for their incompetent, unprofessional and misleading journalism.
The latest set of polls were as much an indication of News Ltd’s irrelevance as the Liberal Party’s.
Sky Agenda decided Rudd was being glass jawed and aggressive. I’ll go with that
with commentary from News Ltd hacks of course. How objective
It’s not too late for Turnbull to do a Sarah Palin, Howie’s favourite tactic: Cut and Run.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/turnbull_may_be_beyond_repair/
Psephos have you read my earlier response @ 307?
Frank Calabrese @ 368 “Sometimes I wonder if the Greens and their supporters are Closet Liberals.” Not this this little black duck and I am sure the vast majority of the others aren’t either.
)
Frank don’t you realize that your continuous attacks on the natural Labor – Green synergy aids the Libs and the CC deniers? I’m sure that it is unintentional.
ruawake
Labor is right in the middle of totally revamping policy in several areas relating specifically to women.
Domestic violence, child sexual abuse, family law reform will be looked at under a new system closely involving community groups and NGOs. This has a strong potential for reform and is directly counter to the COALition policy of silencing community and advocacy groups and NGOs.
Its embryonic [is that a joke?] at the moment and has taken longer to start than it should have [don't forget many community groups suffered financially in the previous decade] but progress is on the way.
Hopefully.
Its one area where, as I thought I said in my previous comment, the ALP is generally stronger than the Greens.
Actually the best party in this regard was probably the Democrats.
Unless Greens supporters come back to the world of reality from the world of fantasy, then the climate will keep changing and there will be nothing in place to address that and Australia will go to Copenhagen with a virtual nothing because there is “nothing”, just wishful thinking and obstructionism which is the cause of that “nothing”
What’s being proposed is effectively nothing. It’s a token measure that doesn’t come within cooee of actually doing something to stop climate change spiralling out of control. That’s why this sort of argument won’t wash with anyone much who’s actually concerned about climate change in any detail – and why it’s better to keep kicking Labor until they come back with something that’s actually at least vaguely conscionable.
Its one area where, as I thought I said in my previous comment, the ALP is generally stronger than the Greens.
How on earth is the ALP stronger than the Greens in any of these areas?
Oh Dear, I ponder out loud and I get attacked for it- so much for “Democracy” by the Greens. It seems I’ve hit yet ANOTHER raw nerve and exposed another home truth. Slo it is ok for the Greens and their Acolytes to attack Labor at every opportunity, yet when we do the same it is akin to being a baby killer.
Respect goes BOTH ways, respect us, and MAYBE we might return the favour.
I don’t think Grech said that.
A Senate committee is not a court. Committee chairs are not judges, they have no power to administer oaths. Giving false or misleading evidence to a parliamentary committee is a contempt of parliament, but not perjury.
And the last time Federal Labor did this they were relegated to Opposition for 13 years. Sometimes I wonder if the Greens and their supporters are Closet Liberals.
Of all the excuses I’ve heard for Keating getting smacked in 1996, “he just implemented too much progressive policy” is a particularly amusing new one…
Dogs 13.9, Hawks 4 points. Suck it up, Jeff Kennett.
Respect goes BOTH ways, respect us, and MAYBE we might return the favour.
It certainly does go both ways. I suspect there’s an awful lot of Green supporters who’ve grown a hell of a lot less friendly to Labor over the years due to encounters with Labor supporters who behave like Adam.
Rebecca,
Please take the time to go back a page or two and read my earlier posts, preferably all of them and you will see how that statement or the action proposed in it, is worthless and not viable for the reasons I have outlined.
It won’t matter “what” they come back with, IT will “never” pass. Wishful thinking won’t make it so!
AFL is politics by proxy?
V1M, have you advised the Greens that basing their whole political stragegy in trying to defeat sitting Labor members (Labor Left members, no less) tends to make Labor less likely to see any “natural Labor – Green synergy”?
Especially when they win those seats on the back of no Liberal Candidate running and the entire liberal vote goes to the Greens Candidate.
Can you imagine the outrage if Labor pulled a similar stunt ?
V1M, have you advised the Greens that basing their whole political stragegy in trying to defeat sitting Labor members (Labor Left members, no less) tends to make Labor less likely to see any “natural Labor – Green synergy”?
The entitlement Labor feels towards the inner-city, while at the same time dismissing its population with all sort of slurs, and ignoring policy popular in said areas, is spectacular. If Labor were more sensible, they’d treat those races like the Libs and the Nats do three-cornered contests; but no, they’d rather provoke the Greens into being a quasi-parliamentary-opposition than natural allies.
Does Mayo ring a bell?
Oh I forgot, it is evil for the ALP to preference Family First, yet the Greens have no qualms of accepting the Libs primary vote.
Especially when they win those seats on the back of no Liberal Candidate running and the entire liberal vote goes to the Greens Candidate.
Honey, we’re not in a first-past-the-post electoral system. If you’re going to rant on a blog full of electoral nerds, at least get this basic fact through your head.
Lighten up a little folks. Saw this gem by Acerbic Conehead on GM’s blog. Hope it passes moderation and doesn’t bug William.
Mrs Slocombe (shouting): Are you going soft in the head, Captain Peacock? Can’t you see I’m not able to deal with any other matters when my pussy isn’t feeling too good…
Cpt. Peacock (swallowing hard): Oh, it’ll turn up, Mrs Slocombe…you just mark my words…
Mrs Slocombe: Oh, my darling pussy – you’re safe – where have you been?
Pussy: Oh, I just hitched a ride on one of the delivery utes and met up with a tom called Jasper – we’re the best of friends now…
Cpt. Peacock: Erm…do you think he would put a word in for me with his owner…I hear he has promised to help Mr Costello from sleep-wear with a career change…
Psephos
In fact, the Senate committees do have the power to swear witnesses, as do many non-judicial tribunals that take evidence. I’m just not sure if Grech was actually sworn in on the 19th.
From “Notes for the guidance of witnesses appearing before Senate Committees”:
http://www.aph.gov.au/SEnate/committee/wit_sub/bro_two.htm
Oh I forgot, it is evil for the ALP to preference Family First, yet the Greens have no qualms of accepting the Libs primary vote.
Labor’s preferences elected a Family First senator, who promptly acted to frustrate a large portion of Labor’s agenda. Green preferences haven’t elected a Liberal since 1995. While I wouldnt be averse to them doing it again if Labor doesn’t stop crying wolf at every freaking election, it’s a bunkum comparison.
May I remind you that the “Liberal Independent” candidate only got 550 primary votes, where did the rest of the Liberal vote go ? certainly not to Tagliaferri.
May I remind you that the “Liberal Independent” candidate only got 550 primary votes, where did the rest of the Liberal vote go ? certainly not to Tagliaferri.
Once again, I’ll remind you that we actually have preferential voting in Australia. If there had been a Liberal candidate in the race, those votes would have gone to Carles as preferences instead of as primaries. Doesn’t make a damn bit of difference to the final result.
And as Adam has repeatedly stated was a result of Labor’s Primary Vote going DOWN. Why ? Because of “Socially Progreesive” Policies such as the Schools Hit List and Medicare Gold.
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