The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll to catch the full force of the OzCar aftermath shows Labor’s two-party lead up from 55-45 to 58-42. Conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 1190 (smaller than usual from a poll covering two weeks), it has Labor up 0.5 per cent on the primary vote to 46.5 per cent and the Coalition down a sharp four points to 35 per cent. The slack has been taken up by the Greens, up 3.5 per cent to 11.5 per cent.
Here’s an incomplete sampling of the past week’s action. This site’s normal energy levels will resume in about a week or so.
• Monday’s weekly Essential Research survey had Labor’s two-party lead up from 58-42 to 59-41. Supplementary questions showed a spike in confidence in the economy, but a somewhat paradoxical increase in concern about employment; Joe Hockey favoured over Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader by 17 per cent to 13 per cent; and the Labor Party viewed more favourably than the Liberals on 11 separate measures.
• The South Australian Liberals have a new leader in Heysen MP Isobel Redmond. Redmond succeeds Waite MP Martin Hamilton-Smith, who was mortally wounded after accusing the government of doing favours for an organisation linked to the Church of Scientology using what proved to be faked emails. Hamilton-Smith called an initial spill last Friday after Mackillop MP Mitch Williams quit the shadow ministry, which was universally interpreted as an attempt to undermine Hamilton-Smith ahead of a future pitch for his job. However, Williams declined to put his name forward at the ensuing spill, at which the sole rival nominee was deputy leader and Bragg MP Vickie Chapman. After inital expectations he would comfortably survive, Hamilton-Smith emerged from the vote without the support of a party room majority: while he won the vote 11 to 10, one member had abstained. Hamilton-Smith called another spill to clear the air, but when Redmond (who had been newly elected in place of Chapman as deputy) said she would put her name forward he announced he would stand aside. The result was a three-way tussle between Redmond, Chapman and Williams, in which Redmond defeated Chapman by 13 votes to nine after Williams was excluded in the first round. Goyder MP Steven Griffiths won the vote for deputy ahead of Williams by eight votes to six (since only lower house MPs get to vote for the deputy, whereas members from both houses have a vote for the leadership).
• Antony Green crunches some electoral numbers to conclude that, contrary to widespread belief, Labor’s position in the Senate would be better if the next election were for half the chamber in the normal fashion, rather than a double dissolution.
• Against his better judgement, Peter Brent at Mumble enters the world of blogdom. He’s also written a piece on Inside Story which delivers on what I emptily promised a few weeks back, namely to review the report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters report into the 2007 election.
681 Comments
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robot
Isn’t steel production normally considered an essential component of military preparedness and so fall under the national security umbrella? I think that even in Australia that the Government has some oversight role in it’s production as we could obviously not fight a war if our steel makers all closed down.
And Cossie’s wins Opp leader hands down!!!
Diogenes,
You are correct. However, this case is being regarded as “economical”, and all the talk was about how a higher iron ore price will affect productions and national economy. I personally think it is going to be a stretch to link this case with national security.
You’d have to expect some comeback for Turnbull from the abyss of the week after emailgate. Any other week 56/44 would be regarded as disastrous for him. Now no doubt the Murdoch grubs will spin it as The Great Comeback. Recall that a Labor 2PV of 56% would bag Labor 103 seats, including Wentworth.
Actually according to Antony’s Election Calculator Wentworth would still be held by libs, but on a knife edge margin of 0.2%
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/?swing=national&national=3.299998474121094&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Dead cat bounce.
But for some reason, reading it gives the impression it’s 55-45.
Via Mumble – Sketych from Big Girl’s Blouse and possible Liberal Leaders.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGQchIKJZ0c
They are still some fairly awesome figures for Rudd.
Better PM Rudd 64/65 Turnbull 19/18
Satisfaction Rudd 61/59 Dissatisfaction Rudd 28/30
And awesome figures for Turnbull as well. You know the future is bleak when twice as many dislike you as like you. Satisfaction Turnbull 31/25 Dissatisfaction Turnbull 55/58
Rudd’s now has a recognised genuine economic manager reputation to put in his kit bag, he has stolen that crown and damaged the Liberal Party legacy somewhat.
One further outcome of the Turnmail-gate affair is that it will diminish the effectiveness of future attacks and smears against him (not that they have been that much in the past). People will pay less heed to them and treat them with a little more skepticism than usual. That doesn’t speak well for a negative Liberal election campaign. That little bit of trickery may have made Rudd impregnable to personal attacks in the future.
Nice to have you back Patrick Fogarty.
No 608
TP, what a crock. During the email affair, you and your happy clappers were claiming that voters didn’t care about this stuff. Now you’re saying that the affair has made Rudd impregnable to personal attacks. Which is it?
Who said that? I certainly didn’t.
Antony Green: “I’m amused at Ponting’s complaints about time wasting. He might have got an extra over or two in if Peter Siddle had turned and walked back to his mark rather than stand mid-pitch and abuse Graeme Swann. But I suppose some fast bowler standing mouthing obscenities that can easily be understood by anyone watching the coverage at home is acceptable behaviour rather than questionable sportsmanship.”
Good call, Antony. If you’re going to carry on at a Glenn McGrath level of sledging, than you ‘d better earn it with a Glenn McGrath quality of bowling.
my post 612: you’re= Peter Siddle
Turnbull has become the incarnation of bluster and mis-judgement. He is most unlikely to recover credibility.Tough thing for the Libs – they have no-one else in the Parliament.
It’s a long time since “the Australian cricket team” and “sportsmanship” could be used in the same paragraph. Ever since the Age of Warnie dawned I have supported all foreign teams against Australia, particularly India, since I think the Indians have preserved at least some of the traditional ethos of cricket. I do have to support Australia against the Poms, however – one must draw the line somewhere.
No 615
Why waste time with Cricket when football (or soccer as it is known in some parts) is far more interesting.
Are you referring to that tedious European activity where they all run around in circles for two hours and never kick any goals or take any marks, and where they fall down and howl like babies whenever anyone bumps into them? I guess you are.
GP #610,
I believe that your friend Patrick “it’s good to have you back” Fogarty was saying something similar…
The arrest of Hu seems to me to stem from two intersecting motives – first, the Government of China is letting Rio (and by extension, every other supplier to China) know that you should never take them for granted. Rio have broken all the cardinal rules: they profiteered when it suited them, begged for help when they needed it and then dumped China when they changed their mind. And second, there is the Anti-Corruption campaign, which every law-abiding citizen of China can only welcome.
In all, the government is saying to anyone taking any notice: don’t mess around with national policy imperatives and don’t put selfish private interest before public duty or you will pay the price.
Personally, I always found it interesting in a game where a lot of goals are scored off the noggin, that it is called “foot”ball…
And by “a lot of goals” I actually mean “a fair percentage of the woefully small amount of goals scored”
And get paid more than the Prime Minister per game as well.
Pspefff – I can’t believe i’ve read something from you I agree with
For all their acheivements, there is something in the approach of the Australian test team that has sapped any sense of enjoyment I had in watching the sport
I rejoice when they lose, as though there is some important lesson for them that has not yet been delivered
Patrick Fogarty @ 596
Amusing. As you rightly point out, the desalination plant is a half-arsed panic-stricken reaction by a society that has yet to learn to live within natural limits.
Remind me what the plan is when:
(1) every last river is dammed
(2) fresh water is all used up
(3) natural variability in rainfall reduces the availability of water
(4) climate change makes the situation worse in some regions (better in others)
(5) the all dams silt up (They do all silt up. They so at varying rates. The record is for a dam which was never used – it was silted up as they were finishing constructing it. Some may take a thousand years to silt up.)
It would be handy to know the plan because this is the model most of the world’s nations are working on.
I won’t ask what your plan is for maintaining biodiversity because you have made it clear that you do not value it.
Can you people not talk about cricket? It’s like reading the news.com.au blogs talk about politics – ill informed.
Pat – I really can’t see the need for another dam. Another dam is of no great benefit if it doesn’t rain and if it does rain we have a number of dams to catch the water including the massive Thompson Dam. If you want to argue that those dams are in the wrong place then blame that on those past conservative governments you refer to.
I was sort of hoping that the Oz would win, but then Chappelli sneered about how long Monte would last, ‘five overs?’, and I started hoping that the Never Will be Slaves mob would hang in there.
No 617
They play in rectangles, not circles. I think you’ll find AFL players frequent circular fields.
It’s also mightily hilarious that a fan of cricket, a game that can go on for hours and hours and still amount to nothing, is accusing football of being a “tedious” exercise.
ENSO looking bad for rain. Indian Ocean Dipole a bit more ambiguous. A great site for rain tragics:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
No 620
Peter, it can’t be as strange as calling Rugby a variant of “football” when the ball it’s more like handball.
delete “when the ball” in 630.
You need to understand cricket. Cricket is never about what is actually happening.
It’s about what *might* happen. Say, if this partnership flourishes….
Or if Australia get a couple of quick wickets…
Or perhaps if the ball starts to turn on the 4th day…
Boerwar
Australia has a simple, easy to impliment response that would assist the tightening water management concerns
Slow down the ridiculously high levels of immigration
Most people recognise high levels of immigration put pressure on infrastructure, why not include water management on the list of issues impacted by high levels of immigration?
Actually the difference is that with cricket the scoreboard ticks over even if it is a draw. With soccer you can have the scoreboard do absolutely bugger all for the whole game.
PJN @ 632
True, but Cricket is also what might have happened, if:
*the umpire had not cocked up yet another LBW decision
*the captain had introduced the spinner when there was a bit more bounce in the pitch
*silly mid-on had not dropped that catch…
DIAC, in setting the levels of permanent migration, takes this into account.
Mr Squiggle
It would help stop the problem from getting worse. It will not help solve the current set of problems.
Yo ho ho @ 636
So who in DIAC is being held accountable for cocking that up?
Like most public policy, a balancing act would take place between the various stakeholders. Unfortunately/fortunately, depending on your point of view, the ‘weight’ given to environmental concerns is not as strong as that given to industry concerns.
Yo ho ho @ 638
Thankyou.
And I did not answer your question at all it seems.
The answer is I have no idea – but ultimately Cabinet sets the migration levels so I guess it’s Cabinet’s fault.
590
The ALP had a few minority governments in Victoria before 1952 and there were some other governments that were progressive for their time too.
GP: We agree on something! Rugby is truly a type of handball…
Yo Ho Ho
that’s an interseting observation – I thought the level of immigration was a policy level decision, set by politicians not public servants
poor innocent little ol’ redneck me
Ohhh – i’m way too slow tonight, Yo o’l Ho HO buddy, good answer at #641
Well, like most policy decisions, the government would be provided with a range of options by the public service, based on different considerations. I suspect they then ignore them and do what they want.
What? Including Indian Habajan Sing hitting one of his Indian team mates (Sreesanth) in the face while on the field? And Harbajan Singh refusing to walk after being bowled?:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSYENiM6NGk
What about Sachin Tendulkar slap on the wrist for ball tampering (a suspended one match ban)? Or India refusing to comply with an ICC ban on Virenda Sehwag for over appealing? The only thing the ICC could do is say that the Sehwag’s next match was no longer classed as a test, because the Indian board refused to drop him from the game.
You also seem to be ignoring the fact that it is the Indian cricket board that props up Zimbabwe’s corrupt cricket administrators because doing so effectively gives India an extra vote in the ICC, which enables them to create more and more Twenty20 and 50 over tournaments at the expense of Test cricket.
When Australian Malcolm Speed as the ICC chairman delivered an independent report that revealed corruption by Zimbabwean cricket administrators, the Indian board used its numbers to have Speed sacked, oh I mean ‘given an early retirement’, because he dared to shine a light on how much money Zimbabwe cricket officials were stealing from the ICC (which of course partly comes from the money Australians pay to see cricket at Australian grounds) and even from Zimbabwean players!
Defending the primacy of Test cricket is part of the “ethos of cricket”, but the Indian cricket board is mainly interested in more and more Mickey mouse limited over tournaments, and is willing to sell its soul to Mugabe’s minions in order to secure them.
No 634
There’s more to a sport than the score board. I’ve watched some fantastic draws in my relatively short lifetime.
Personally, the only variant of cricket that I can watch is 20/20. They smash the ball endlessly and it’s not all that bad. Test cricket, as the old saying goes, is like watching grass grow.
Just like a game of soccer eh?
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